The Cunliffe bounce

Written By: - Date published: 9:43 am, October 30th, 2013 - 26 comments
Categories: election 2014, polls - Tags:

Fairfax suffered the double indignity of first having its poll contradicted by One News’ hours later and then Key himself mocking the idea that National is on 50%. Still rogue polls happen. That’s statistics. But we can try to look through the variation in single polls by comparing the 6 After David polls (including the Fairfax joke) to their 6 Before Cunliffe predecessors to see if there really has been a Cunliffe bounce.

Here’s the results (thanks to Curiablog for collecting the polls and making my life easier)

BC v AD polls(confusingly, the polls in each set are in chronological order with the most recent polls at the top, but the top set of polls came before the bottom set, sorry)

As you can see, there’s a real difference. Before Cunliffe, National average 47.1% to the Labour-Greens’ 44.4%. After David, that’s reversed with Labour-Greens averaging 47.4% to National’s 44.9%.

Labour is averaging nearly 4% more than it was under Shearer with half that increase coming from National, a quarter from the Greens, and the other quarter from the minors.

Of course, there’s statistical variation in a poll of polls, just as there is in an individual one, only less so. Still, the signs are pretty clear that there has been a Cunliffe bounce and a Labour-Greens government is now favourite for 2014.

Fairfax got one thing right: one swallow does not make a spring and one poll does not make a trend. But,looking at all the information together, it’s clear that there is a change in the air.

26 comments on “The Cunliffe bounce ”

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  1. Ad 1
    30 October 2013 at 9:56 am

    Wondered why I had called myself Ad

  2. karol 2
    30 October 2013 at 10:02 am

    I wish the MSM didn’t keep diverting attention away from the important issues with all this diversionary spin around polls.

    The lesson is that there are many MSM journos who will be looking for every opportunity to undermine Cunliffe and talk up Key.

    There needs to be an alternative strategy to engage the wider public in the issues of most importance to them and the country.

  3. Sable 3
    30 October 2013 at 10:13 am

    Mickey mouse MSM with their usual spin and lies…

  4. mark 4
    30 October 2013 at 11:29 am

    The Fairfax poll is such a joke. 21.9% of the public who were asked either refused to answer or said they didnt know. The real figure for the Nats is under 40%. What an absolute joke when over a fifth of all voters won’t give an answer. Makes the poll meaningless.

  5. Salmon 5
    30 October 2013 at 12:00 pm

    This analysis ignores the two (positive) polls that happened after Shearer resigned, and before Cunliffe was elected leader. With those polls the “Cunliffe bounce” is probably better interpreted as the “new leader bounce”.

    A bounce after a new leader is elected is to be expected. The real question is whether we can sustain it.

  6. Steve 6
    30 October 2013 at 12:18 pm

    Interestingly the Dom post hasn’t printed part of the poll which is available online, Time for a change of Government at 50.1%, No change 43.1%, Not sure 6.8% http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9339557/More-think-NZs-on-the-right-track-poll check out sentiment.

  7. BrucetheMoose 7
    30 October 2013 at 12:20 pm

    If you ask anybody in marketing for telecommunications companies, they will tell you that it is a well known fact, that a higher number of National supporters own a landline nowadays than Labour for example. Do a poll door to door, you will get a completely different result. Of course, since Fairfax and National have been enjoying the benefits of pissing in each others pocket for the last few decades, neither will admit to this matter of phone ownership. I would, as Johnny says, take it all with a bucket of salt. Personally, given the ineptness, corruption and incompetence of this government, I would take it all with a truckload of salt. I put a similar comment on Stuff website. They didn’t allow it. No surprises really.

    • Francis 7.1
      31 October 2013 at 1:08 pm

      Yep, both Fairfax and the One News (presumably the TV3 one as well) suffer from the landline bias. Roy Morgan at least utilises mobile phones. None the less, the working class voters are probably less likely to be able to participate in polls anyway, due to working very long (and odd) hours.

      Unfortunately, the latest Roy Morgan poll shows a 3% swing towards the right (1.5% off both Labour and the Greens, 0.5% onto National and 1.5% onto the Conservatives). Presumably due to the signals that the Conservatives will be in parliament at the next election. None the less, all the changes are within the margin of error, and the overall trend is still showing increasing Labour votes and decreasing National votes.

  8. Steve 8
    30 October 2013 at 12:24 pm

    Interestingly the Dom post hasn’t printed part of the poll which is available online, Time for a change of Government at 50.1%, No change 43.1%, Not sure 6.8%. check out sentiment.

    • Tat Loo (CV) 8.1
      30 October 2013 at 12:46 pm

      That not sure number is very low. This is a bad result for the incumbents, as it shows that attitudes are hardening fast.

  9. bad12 9
    30 October 2013 at 12:26 pm

    What i have a look at a couple of times a week is the ‘gamblers’ over on ipredict, it’s an interesting read not necessarily for what it says about support for a Labour/Green Government but having to so to speak put the money where the mouth is,

    It makes an interesting gauge of just how confident National supporters are and at the moment it would seem that National supporters are only confident that they will not be getting a third term out of Slippery and Co,

    Did anyone else notice it, in the couple of days leading up to and including the long Labour weekend???,

    In what to me was an obviously orchestrated,(from the Beehive’s 9th floor), across the spectrum of all the media, print, radio, television, the politics we were all force fed was ‘Colon Craig and His Conservatives’,

    What other politician who is a virtual non-entity outside of Auckland’s North Shore can anyone of us remember getting a free publicity campaign this far away from an election,with Slippery the PM chiming in on the Conservatives side in the past 2 mornings on both TV and radio,

    What’s happening here is simple to see, this has all the hall-marks of National’s PANIC written deeply all over it, internal polling will have given National numbers to work off as far as the Conservatives go pre-free publicity campaign,

    National will use internal polling again in the next week to judge the success or not of having used the compliant mass media to attempt to manufacture a coalition partner and if they detect a rise in support for Colon Craig we can expect in the next year to be bombarded by the Tory media with stories which attempt to cement in the voters minds the Conservatives as Nationals coalition partner for a third term….

  10. BrucetheMoose 10
    30 October 2013 at 1:01 pm

    If you ask anybody in marketing for telecommunications companies, they will tell you that it is a well known fact, that a higher number of National supporters own a landline nowadays than Labour for example. They know this, as such information is important for their target marketing. Do a poll door to door, you will get a completely different result. Of course, since Fairfax and National have been enjoying the benefits of pissing in each others pocket for the last few decades, neither will admit to this matter of phone ownership. I would, as Johnny says, take it all with a bucket of salt. Personally, given the ineptness, corruption and incompetence of this government, I would take it all with a truckload of salt. I put a similar comment on Stuff website. They didn’t allow it. No surprises really.

  11. tc 11
    30 October 2013 at 1:17 pm

    Polls tell the story required by those publishing them mostly, it’s all about getting the disaffected third back into the booths in 2014.

    Do that and the NACT are way gone, alot of 2011’s spin was about the MSM telling folk to not bother it’s shonkey all the way especially after Goff had rattled him, cuppa tea, a police raid or 2 etc.

    With a few more showing up to vote, some better Lab candidates, and Mallard not leading the campaign in 2011 and we probably wouldn’t be having the assets flogged off now.

  12. SDCLFC7 12
    30 October 2013 at 1:48 pm

    I still can’t get too excited by 35/36 points. The trend is good, but not really kicking goals or putting pressure on the government until we start seeing 38/39 consistently. It’s been 5 years since we’ve been at those numbers.
    And as a Labour voter who wants David Cunliffe to be the next PM, I’m not excited about working with a Green party at 12-14 points. How many MPs do you need when your only constructive areas of interest are energy, transport and the environment (Norman can flatter to deceive all he likes on finance but he has little to contribute there – especially when we can sell the electorate David Parker as Cullen Mark II).
    The middle will gravitate towards us if they see Labour as a Government in waiting not the Labour/Greens.
    If we’re at 40 points and the Greens at 6-8, then we can easily make up the remaining ground from the middle and have the right balance of votes to govern constructively with.

    • karol 12.1
      30 October 2013 at 1:58 pm

      How many MPs do you need when your only constructive areas of interest are energy, transport and the environment

      Actually the Greens have also been leading on child poverty, social security, state housing, etc, etc.

      And I will vote for them to keep Labour from slipping too far to the right.

    • MrSmith 12.2
      30 October 2013 at 2:26 pm

      “only constructive areas of interest are energy, transport and the environment”

      Sorry you forgot education, health, employment, etc also you forgot The Greens have been at-least behaving like an opposition for the last 5 years, so they deserve a large piece of the pie, Labour have been stumbling from one balls up to another till now, they just need to stay on their game because if they start fighting with the Green left we will end up with another 3 years of National.

      • tc 12.2.1
        30 October 2013 at 4:50 pm

        +1 a solid lab/greens govt without the need for any others would be a great result.

        The greens deserve to land a few decent portfolios and shonkey can keep trying to paint them reds under the bed like his idol piggy, it just makes him look all the more desperate.

    • lloyd jordan 12.3
      30 October 2013 at 6:20 pm

      trouble is labour has shown that it cannot be trusted via 1st lange then by clark, that is why there needs to be a strong minor party or parties presence, the country has had enough of the born to rule attitude by both the major parties

  13. The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 13
    30 October 2013 at 1:50 pm

    There was a Shearer bounce initially as well. They key is to not make it a bounce but a permanent state of affairs.

  14. peter petterson 14
    30 October 2013 at 10:58 pm

    The main poll is the election vote in 2014

  15. Ben 15
    31 October 2013 at 10:02 am

    Only thing is with the boundary changes we’re likely going to have to include the Conservatives on the Nat vote.

    However if Labour keeps momentum it shouldn’t matter. There should be another bounce out of conference hopefully.

  16. Delia 16
    31 October 2013 at 10:31 am

    These Polls are a plot. Years ago we had polls only three months out from the election…now they are used to cause widespread despair and stop people from thinking their vote counts.

  17. Tracey 17
    31 October 2013 at 10:33 am

    It seems to me that recent polls may be indicative of media coverage. Rightly govts get more coverage and labour enjoyed a bounce during its leadership campaign and definitely attracted more media coverage at that time. During an election campaign that coverage will grow again?

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