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The dodgy Auckland Mayoralty Curia poll

Written By: - Date published: 8:58 am, June 21st, 2022 - 104 comments
Categories: auckland supercity, dpf, efeso collins, leo molloy, Media, polls, supercity, uncategorized - Tags:

The Curia poll investigating Aucklanders preferences for the next Mayor has caused a bit of a splash.  The published results suggested that Leo Molloy and Efeso Collins were level pegging and that Viv Beck and Wayne Brown were close behind.

And various media outlets picked up on the results and reported them faithfully.

Like Bernard Orsman in the Herald:

The Ratepayers’ Alliance-Curia mayoral poll has Labour councillor Efeso Collins and restaurateur Leo Molloy each on 21.7 per cent, Heart of the City chief executive Viv Beck on 20.5 per cent and businessman Wayne Brown on 20.1 per cent.

Freelance media operator Craig Lord, who came third in the 2019 mayoral race, was four points behind the leading pack on 16 per cent.

The poll of 500 Aucklanders excluded four other mayoral candidates – Hibiscus and Bays Local Board chairman Gary Brown, New Conservative Party co-leader Ted Johnston, John Lehmann and animal justice campaigner Michael Morris.

Auckland Ratepayers’ Alliance spokesman Josh Van Veen said the poll shows the four main candidates are equally weak and uninspiring, but Collins has the advantage thanks to the Labour Party machine.

“The time has come for National to get off the fence. In the interests of local democracy, we are calling on the Opposition to endorse a candidate for change in Auckland,” he said.

And Newshub also trumpeted the figures and gave Molloy the chance to spout a whole lot of mistruths, like Labour thinks that the race is in the bag.  Or that he was socially liberal, the guy who wants to turn sprinklers on the homeless.

One thing that Molloy did say is that people are tired of idealism.  Funny that.  I always thought that idealism was a core requirement for our political leadership.

I thought that the figures were weird because they had Craig Lord on 16%.  There is no way that he is going to repeat this figure in the actual poll.

Then the news broke that the undecided figure for the poll was 53%.  The total sample size was 500 so the results were very unreliable.

I went to have a look for the source document and was able to click through and download it from the Auckland Ratepayers Alliance site, even though the poll was said to be available exclusively for Auckland Ratepayers’ Alliance Supporters.  I can confirm it would be a cold day in hell before I could be considered one of their supporters.

The report did not mention the undecided figure.  This was obtained by the intrepid reporters Business Desk and referred to in this Spinoff article:

A poll that placed four candidates for the Auckland mayoralty all but neck and neck in fact had one response way out in the lead: undecided. Polling company Curia – which conducted the survey for the Ratepayers Alliance, a sister group of the Taxpayers Union – has confirmed that 53% of those polled answered “don’t know” or “undecided”, even though they were presented with five candidates and encouraged to choose one “even if not entirely decided”. With a sample size of 500, it suggests that even the most popular candidates were selected by just 51 people each …

The undecided number, first reported over the weekend by BusinessDesk, was not mentioned in the original news report revealing the poll, nor in the document released by the Ratepayers Alliance, which described the five candidates as “statistically tied” after those surveyed were asked: “If the Auckland Mayoralty is a choice between the following candidates, which one are you most likely to vote for at this stage, even if not entirely decided.”

The intent behind the publicity is interesting.  Presentation of the results is statistically inaccurate and the poll result has been given way more credence than it should have been.

The intent appears to be to get National to sort the field out.  From the Ratepayer’s Alliance newsletter:

“The time has come for [the National Party] to get off the fence. In the interests of local democracy, we are calling on the Opposition to endorse a candidate for change in Auckland”.

With too many ‘change’ candidates running, the lack of leadership by National could see a continued high-spending, high-rates, Mayor for Auckland. Ratepayers deserve so much better…

The episode has all the hallmarks of Dirty Politics.  And it has blown a rather large hole in Curia’s reputation.

104 comments on “The dodgy Auckland Mayoralty Curia poll ”

  1. James Simpson 1

    I agree that is shitty reporting.

    But the problem as I see it is voter turn out for local government elections is shite and fails to attract 50% participation. The 53% who are undecided probably won't bother to vote in any case.

    • Lanthanide 1.1

      What you say is true, however from statistical sampling, your poll needs to have around 1000 responses to be valid.

      500 responses, of which 53% gave no answer, means you got ~240 answers, that's 4x fewer than required to be a useful poll.

      It's garbage and shouldn't have been published at all. Basically it's a PR exercise and/or they already spent the money so they just went ahead with publishing it, especially since it gave a message they wanted.

      Won't make a squat of difference in the long run though.

  2. Sacha 2

    To be fair, Curia did not publish the poll results themselves. Though they did agree to conduct it with respondents "presented with five candidates and encouraged to choose one “even if not entirely decided”".

    A nice reminder that Farrar and Jordan Williams share the same morals. If only there had been some real consequences after Dirty Politics was published.

    • Sacha 2.1

      Ah, I missed Farrar laundering his own poll via Orsman on his sewerblog.

      How do I insert a screenshot?

    • swordfish 2.2

      Though they did agree to conduct it with respondents "presented with five candidates and encouraged to choose one “even if not entirely decided”". A nice reminder that Farrar and Jordan Williams share the same morals. If only there had been some real consequences after Dirty Politics was published.

      How is this different from TV1 Colmar Brunton / Kantar's prompting ?:

      Which political party would you vote for?” – IF DON’T KNOW “Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”

      • Sacha 2.2.1

        True. 'Presented with 5 candidates' was the thing. The other polls have an open slate they are prompting for.

        And they would never ignore Undecideds anywhere near that high, let alone talk about a “statistical tie” like Farrar does above.

  3. Sanctuary 3

    The MSM inexplicably treats the the Taxpayers Union as a good faith actor, when almost everyday it provides comprehensive evidence that it is bad faith and dishonest organisation.

    • Tiger Mountain 3.1

      Exactly, I laughed like the proverbial when TU claimed COVID subsidies. They are so full of it and your point about the MSM is onto it.

  4. Ad 4

    Good on you for interrogating Mickey.

    But I sure hope Collins has something better planned in his publicity machine.

    Molloy's team understand profile.

    Winning is not about who fights fairly or with facts.

    • Tiger Mountain 4.1

      Your last line is apposite, but with Efeso’s campaign I maintain turnout, and voter assistance and advice will decide this election.

      • Ad 4.1.1

        Efeso can't rely on Labour volunteers to to out the vote this time when the Labour brand is so low. Loyalty right now can be judged on the national level polls which haven't bottomed yet.

      • Belladonna 4.1.2

        Turnout is always difficult in local body elections.
        Sadly, all too many potential voters, perceive little value in electing representatives.
        I'd have to say that's doubly true in Auckland, where so much has been outsourced to 'council owned organizations' – where elected representatives have little or no influence on the decision making.

        Getting over 40% to express an opinion (even if many of them won't actually vote) – is probably a victory.

        Not excusing the reporting on this. Just commenting that the 'undecided' vote will probably turn into the 'did not vote' at election time.

  5. Anker 5

    I remain puzzled that Matt McCarten is Leo Molloy campaign manager

    • Sanctuary 5.1

      At a certain time in life a certain type of activist realise they'll never be allowed to be inside the tent pissing out. They then have a choice. Go off and actually do something constructive in the NGO sector or develop a nihilistic and truculent compulsion to piss on the tent and everyone and everything in and around it because hey – BURN IT ALL DOWN!

      Combine that with future shock amongst certain aging activists and you get an intellectual drift to an increasingly reactionary and populist right mindset. And yo! We have Matt McCarten, Martyn Bradbury, Chris Trotter etc.

      or TLDR – they are all turning into deluded and grumpy out of touch middle aged to old men.

      • roy cartland 5.1.1

        Would some insightful person care to elaborate on this phenomenon? I've got trouble understanding it as well.

        DP star Jordan Williams, as was Slater, is now a participant Bradbury's podcast. I'm all for reaching across the divide (which is what I assume Bomber's doing), but the more exposure they get, the more legitimacy. That combined with a vitriolic hatred for the Greens, and left in general, surely risks turning progressive voters and fence-sitters off voting.

        What's it all about surprise ? I'm so far left I hate my allies more than my enemies?

        • tc 5.1.1.1

          Money….money changes everything.

          We all have a price/bills to pay and with so few opportunies when one has a limited skillset and few outlets you take what you can get.

          As designed, DP is very much in vogue.

        • Tiger Mountain 5.1.1.2

          When your income is at least partially reliant on political punditry I imagine it pays to cover all bases to keep the cash flow happening–which means right opportunism is never too far away.

          It is an infantile approach to expect those that want to destroy working class organisation, are capable of rapprochement because of a few jokey podcasts between fellow greybeards.

          The NZCTU was like this in the 90s with tripartism. The National Party Employment Contracts Act de-recognised Unions and employers loved it, yet Ken Douglas and co blundered on until private sector unions were almost decimated.

          Civil discussion is one thing, but an ex colleague of Bruce Jesson’s running a campaign for Leo Molloy is too much for some of us. The few remaining peoples assets that Bruce and others fought so hard to retain will be up for grabs if any of the right candidates wins the Supercity Mayoralty.

      • swordfish 5.1.2

        .

        Do fuck off, you pretentious old blowhard.

        All three have the honesty, integrity & courage to recognise the Professional New Middle Class’s steady appropriation of Left organisations over the past few decades, its more recent ideological capture by extreme, deeply distorted Identity Politics dogma & hence its current full-on subversion of traditional Left principles & democratic norms.

        • Muttonbird 5.1.2.1

          Matt McCarten, "honest"? You are having a laugh.

          The socially responsible left has moved on, old timer. There are more marginalised people to represent now than just the white working class like it was in your day.

        • Sanctuary 5.1.2.2

          Thanks for the course outline swordfish, I'll be sure to enroll so I can learn more of your handy insights.

        • I Feel Love 5.1.2.3

          "Blowhard"/ coming from you, ha!!!!!!

        • SPC 5.1.2.4

          You mean Trotter's principled opposition to CGT/wealth taxes and inheritance/estate taxation because those of his generation would vote Labour out of office if they did anything?

          Or his recent post that Labour should not have been manipulated by the USA into placing trade with China at risk … left wing regard for being a loyal farm to the UK/China.

      • Anker 5.1.3

        Not sure how accurate this is Sanctury.

        I think Trotter, Bradbury and McCarten still retain traditional left wing principles and values, whether they are in the tent or not.

        What I think these three have in common is a concern about the domination of identity politics in parties like Labour and the Greens. Quite recently I heard McCarten say he was really concerned about the "woke".

        I think the woke or identity politics will/is splitting the left. Just my opinion based on some observations.

        I think Trotter, Bradbury and McCarten are all very concerned about de-platforming and the shutting down of free speech. I share their concerns.

        I am still puzzled by McCarten with Leo Molloy………….but I never doubt Matt's left wing principles and values.

        Staying in the tent isn't always the right thing to do and this is part of why Labour are losing votes

        • RedLogix 5.1.3.1

          Sanctuary has a tendency to think he will never grow old either. Or if he does – there will be nothing much new to learn along the way.

          • SPC 5.1.3.1.1

            It's about resisting the penchant to drift right without even noticing it.

            In the case of Bradbury he at least incorporates the Maori into his working class group solidarity (not all of his generation do that), but like McCarten has a problem with progressive liberalism. Thus the McCarten tendency to the Tamihere and Molloy types.

    • woodart 5.2

      no puzzle . two peas in a pod. both supremely unaware of anybody but themselves. both, very damaged goods. like turds, they naturally attract each other.

      • Anker 5.2.1

        Matt McCarten may well be damaged. All you have to do is read his background to conclude its remarkable that he is intact as much as he is.

        If Matt is really unaware of anybody but himself, how come he works with and for the most vulnerable workers? I don't know the guy, I am just reflecting on his work

  6. Tiger Mountain 6

    So well done Micky–investigative journalism–how many out there are practicing it these days apart from niche bloggers and podcasters?

    I have said several times here that if all the righties stay in the race and Efeso campaigns hard including vote paper mail in events (run by supporters) etc. he will win. The voter turnout of the last few Supercity elections has been pathetic–32-38%.

    The wind down of mail in favour of Couriers, and transience of renters adds to the difficulties of getting Aucklanders to actually participate in running their own city.

    • Sacha 6.1

      The investigative journalism in this case is by the subscriber-model BusinessDesk. The Spinoff broadcast it further. Not much investigating involved beyond what used to be industry-standard editorial practice.

    • lprent 6.2

      The wind down of mail in favour of Couriers, and transience of renters adds to the difficulties of getting Aucklanders to actually participate in running their own city.

      They need to revert to polling places for local elections. Just use the same places as the national elections.

      There are just two mailboxes near me now – and a pile of others that have been removed. One of those two was unavailable while the K Road works were being done. The other one is apparently within 500m from where I have lived for most of the last 24 years. I can't remember ever seeing it. I don't walk on Great North Road voluntarily – the scenery is car yards.

      https://postboxmap.com/en

      There are more postboxes in Central Auckland than just about any other place in NZ. They're pretty much all awkward to get to, and never in places that I seldom go. Trying to get parking to drop off mail is pretty hard. They look like hangovers from when this area was highly residential, and K road was a active shopping hub – ie in the 1950s or 60s.

      There isn't one in or outside the Countdown that I go to every week. Supermarkets would be the obvious place for them to be for most people. Having them on main roads with no parking is ridiculous.

      But I don't even get mail these days – not even junk mail because the mailboxes are in our apartments foyer. Mostly it is just rubbish from real estate people touting for custom – it appears to me to be the only thing that NZ Post delivers as mail these days. They’re pretty reliable as couriers fro local parcel deliveries though.

      Last time I looked for stamps and envelopes at home… well you can imagine how that went. Yellow envelopes and stamps that wouldn't stick – and I also discovered a check book and found out what I was signing checks for in the 1990s.

      • Sanctuary 6.2.1

        Even temporary, maybe orange mail boxes in malls, outside supermarkets, churches etc would be a good idea. In fact, just put them all the temporary voting mail boxes in South Auckland and give the right something real to moan about for a change.

  7. Anne 7

    Suspect the Nats (and ACT) were in a bit of a panic over Efeso Collins. His publicity machine is not in full swing (like Ad says… they had better start moving), but everyone who has had the opportunity to meet him is very impressed. Roll that out big time over the next few months and he should win by a country mile.

    I say 'should', but it won't happen if DP roams freely without strong reprisal from the Collins team. Not suggesting for a moment they get down dirty too, but don't let them get away with it which has happened in the past.

    • OldManTime 7.1

      I suspect National are not the slightest bit concerned. I've met Efeso a number of times and he's a nice guy with relatively modest intellect and certainly not the horsepower to run a city like Auckland.

      • Anne 7.1.1

        And I suspect you're an apologist for the Nat local body off-shoots who are trying to create a perception that Efeso Collins is "weak and uninspiring and lacks intellectual heft".

        Unsaid but right there. He can't possibly be any good folks because he's a brown guy from Samoa.

        Edit: oh and he is apparently lazy too because he didn’t attend a council meeting. No other city councillor has ever missed meetings – oh no. A lazy, ineffectual brown guy. 🙄

        • OldManTime 7.1.1.1

          That's a very lazy response, implying that criticising a candidate who happens to be Samoan must make me racist. Do you know my ethnicity?

          • Drowsy M. Kram 7.1.1.1.1

            Do you know my ethnicity?

            Do you mean the ethnicity of OldManTime? He appears to be new here angry

            Btw, reckon you’re on the money with “Molloy is a buffoon“, but then so are Trump and (former mayor of London) Boris. Leo for PM, anyone?

            • OldManTime 7.1.1.1.1.1

              Brilliant cartoon, thanks! Malloy, Trump, Johnson, all peas in a pod.

          • Anne 7.1.1.1.2

            You are repeating the prescribed lines of the Auckland based right wing 'luminaries' which started a few weeks back and will increase in volume until the local body elections are over.

            Do I know your ethnicity? No. Don’t care. Not relevant. I was referring to the ‘Nat Party off-shoots’ – not you. 🙄

            • OldManTime 7.1.1.1.2.1

              You said you suspected I was an apologist for those offshoots. The only thing worse than calling me a racist is denying you called me one.

              I would also remind you that Efeso was not Labour's first or even second choice, and so one thing I do like about him is that he just may resist being Labour's puppet. This from Bomber Bradbury back when Labour were courting David Shearer:

              "Labour loves submission. They look for candidates who will do as they are told and be enough of a time serving yes man or woman and you will be edged up the slippery pole of power."

              How far will Labour go to ignore Efeso Collins for Auckland Mayoralty? | The Daily Blog

              • Louis

                Wouldn't take Bradbury's opinion as gospel.

                "Labour announced a process to decide the party's endorsee on 15 February; the process was uncontested, and on 28 February, Labour endorsed Collins' independent campaign. On 15 March, the Green Party announced their endorsement of Collins"

                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Auckland_mayoral_election#:~:text=Labour%20announced%20a%20process%20to,announced%20their%20endorsement%20of%20Collins.

                https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/462465/labour-endorses-efeso-collins-for-auckland-mayoralty

                • OldManTime

                  The process was only uncontested because Hills announced in early February he would not be standing, and Shearer had already turned Labour down. Collins was far from Labour's first choice.

                  "Collins has announced he is running for the mayoralty, but is unpopular in the party and there is no guarantee he will be endorsed as the Labour candidate."

                  Auckland councillor Richard Hills announces he won't be running for mayoralty – NZ Herald

                  • Louis

                    Oldmantime, Collins was Labour's first choice though. You cannot choose a candidate if you don't know who is in the running.

                    Who said that lie that Collins is unpopular in the party? If that were the case Collins would not have the endorsement of the Labour party.

                    • OldManTime

                      Collins was not Labour's first choice. David Shearer was, and then Richard Hills.

                      "Who said that lie that Collins is unpopular in the party?"

                      That was in the article by Bernard Orsman.

                      Auckland councillor Richard Hills announces he won't be running for mayoralty – NZ Herald

                      In fact Collins claimed he could win the mayoralty without Labours endorsement.

                      Efeso Collins says he could win Auckland mayoralty without Labour's support (newstalkzb.co.nz)

                      " If that were the case Collins would not have the endorsement of the Labour party."

                      They were left with no choice. There first preferred candidates turned them down. Their second preferred candidate pulled the plug.

                    • Louis

                      No Oldmantime. One or two mps doesn't represent the entire party. Neither Shearer, who said he had no time to even consider it, nor Hills, threw their hats in the ring in the first place, so weren't first choices. You're taking the baseless opinion of Bernard Orsman as fact? As I said previously, Labour chose Efeso Collins, as did the Green party. These endorsements are not forced.

                      "I am so pleased that the Labour Party has demonstrated that it values me for who I am – someone who will champion working people and the labour movement, and will be independent-minded and ambitious for the future of this city.”

                      https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/local-government/127906107/auckland-mayoralty-labour-party-backs-councillor-efeso-collins-as-its-candidate

                    • OldManTime

                      "Neither Shearer, who said he had no time to even consider it, nor Hills, threw their hats in the ring in the first place, so weren't first choices."

                      Not true. Hills certainly did:

                      “Goff’s silence has caused a pile-up on the left, with two Labour candidates frustrated at the lack of clarity.” And “Hills, who chairs the council’s environment and climate change committee, is understood to have a campaign team in place and to be liaising with Goff”

                      Is the Left getting left behind in Auckland's mayoral race? | Stuff.co.nz

                      “You're taking the baseless opinion of Bernard Orsman as fact?”

                      I’m taking a cross section of opinion from people in Auckland who know.

                      “As I said previously, Labour chose Efeso Collins, as did the Green party. These endorsements are not forced.

                      You’re wrong. And Todd Niall was onto it back in February.

                      If Labour wants to hang onto the mayoralty of the country’s biggest city, it has, behind the scenes, some swift housekeeping to do.

                    • Louis

                      No, Hills didn't stand though Oldmantime, from your link "Richard Hills says he will not be running for the Auckland Mayoralty, saying the timing is not right after just becoming a father for the first time"

                      As I said previously, you're incorrect and opinions not supported by facts, are not factual.

                    • Sacha

                      opinion from people in Auckland who know

                      Reckons, then.

                    • Louis

                      Exactly, Sacha

              • Anne

                You have difficulty understanding don't you. My comment that the campaign to demean Efeso Collins "is really about racism" was general. It was not my intention to apply it to any specific person including yourself. But if you persist in repeating their falsehoods then you have to expect flak.

                • OldManTime

                  What is this 'campaign to demean Efeso Collins'? The only 'campaign' I've seen is from Labour, who seemed to want anyone but him.

                • gypsy

                  If the campaign to demean Collins (whatever that means) was about racism, why isn't there a campaign to discredit Craig Lord?

                  • gypsy

                    "Coincidentally, another regular commenter here, "

                    FFS are you serious? I have been away on a ban YOU imposed.

                    And I would hope you would give me more credit than to dream up a moniker like ‘Old Man Time’.

                    [Why are you using two aliases here and astroturfing this site? You’re in Pre-Moderation until we have received a satisfactory explanation from you and dealt with you in the appropriate manner – Incognito]

                    • Incognito

                      You two have so much in common, that much is obvious.

                      I never judge other’s bad taste.

                    • Incognito

                      Mod note

                    • gypsy

                      I'm not. You tried this the other day. I think you're getting a bit obsessed.

                    • Incognito []

                      Not good enough, try again, and explain why 2 user names come from the same source on the same day, i.e., yours.

                    • gypsy

                      "Not good enough, try again, and explain why 2 user names come from the same source on the same day, i.e., yours."

                      It didn't. You're making this up.

                    • Incognito []

                      Actually, no, I’m looking at the system logs here – and they don’t make things up – and they tell a very different story and only you can explain this away (or not) and I’ve been more than fair giving you a chance to do so. So far, you’re failing miserably.

                    • gypsy

                      "Actually, no, I’m looking at the system logs here "

                      Look, this is quite simple. You gave me a weeks ban. I served that and came back. Why would I use another alias? I think you're having a crack at shutting down a commentator whose opinions you don't like. It's form.

                    • Incognito []

                      So, you’re not able or don’t want to offer an explanation why 2 users comment from the exact same source as you do and on the exact same day? Is this your final word on this?

                      FYI, banned people try to bypass their bans all the time and astroturfers are some of the worst culprits. They use different aliases and sockpuppets, et cetera. It doesn’t really matter what their agenda is but for obvious reasons RW comments stand out here.

                      It’s quite simple, offer a good explanation and you may be allowed to continue commenting here, using only one alias, of course. Happy now?

                    • gypsy

                      "banned people try to bypass their bans all the time"

                      When they can comment under their original alias? Weird. I didn't. My alias is Gypsy. That's it. I do find it humorous the lengths your going to to shut me down, but I don't care enough to lie to keep commenting privileges.

                    • Incognito []

                      Yes, that’s what astroturfers do, by definition. They also like to change names frequently and start with a clean sheet/history on a site. It happens, a lot more than you seem to think. Of course, it’s dishonest and we stomp hard on it. I’m sure you understand.

                      I don’t find this amusing at all and you’ll stay in Pre-Mod until we have sorted this. In the meantime, don’t bother commenting or replying to anything other than your moderation because your comments will end up in Trash.

                  • Anne

                    Presumably because Craig Lord isn't seen to be a threat. Efeso Collins is a threat. Couldn't work that out for yourself? Oh dearie me.

                    • gypsy

                      Craig Lord is a candidate with profile and came third in the last election. His candidacy risks splitting the vote on the right. So he is most certainly a threat. The idea that there is some racist campaign to undermine Collins doesn't stack up.

                    • Louis

                      laugh Anne.

      • Patricia Bremner 7.1.2

        Well, Old Man, you are "Worried enough to post your opinion here as fact" lol

        • OldManTime 7.1.2.1

          I was more amused at Anne's suggestion the Nat's were in full panic mode over a candidate Labour only endorsed with some reluctance. LoL.

          • Anne 7.1.2.1.1

            A "bit of a panic" has become full panic mode. I think that gives most people here a 'bit of an idea' how much credence to give your contributions. smiley

            • OldManTime 7.1.2.1.1.1

              I'm not the one who claimed "everyone who has had the opportunity to meet him is very impressed." Have you done a survey?

              • Louis

                People who have met Collin's have said they are impressed with him. Why does that upset you so much?

                • OldManTime

                  It doesn't. I've met him and I was impressed by him. But not as a potential mayor. Anne's claim about 'everyone' was a stretch, however.

                  • Louis

                    Your posts suggest otherwise Oldmantime. Why is it a stretch? you said yourself, you were impressed when you met him.

                    • OldManTime

                      The stretch is that 'everyone' that's met him was impressed with him. How the hell would Anne even know that? Hyperbole bs.

                    • Louis

                      But that's what people are saying, that they are impressed with him, just like you said you were.

  8. Louis 8

    Also Preferred PM was left out of the initial poll release

  9. ho humm. Just the right acting in character.

    Nothing to see here, move along.

  10. Corey Humm 10

    Noone cares about local elections.

    Noone. Except people who own houses, they actually turn up to vote.

    My entire generation is locked out of owning a house and is now being locked out of even finding a rental.

    Make as big a deal about Leo or Collins or any mayoralty candidate as you want noones going to turn out to vote for either cos we don't feel connected to our cities or towns cos we own have nothing and have nothing to tie us here or have any bonds to our cities or towns so we're not gonna vote. Local elections are for home owners and political tragics.

    A mayor can't change anything. They are a figure head role. Who cares who a mayor is they are just another councilor.

    What the left should be concerned about is not bloody local elections, what the left should be concerned about is a general election in 16 months that's going to have an incredibly low gen z and millennial and poor/working class voter turn out and how on earth we can convince labour the house is on fire and it's time to actually do things that'll entice young and poor people and there health reforms, water reforms are irrelevant to us.

    If labour and the greens with a combined majority of 20 seats can't do anything to make our lives better, if with such a gargantuan majority they are simply frozen and unable to react and expect us to simply endure while our food prices skyrocket, while our rents become unbearable and while noone can find a goddamned house to freaking rent , if labour after an election of extreme mass support can't do anything now beyond shaking their fingers at supermarkets and saying "it bad everywhere" and throwing us in motels then why would anyone doing it tough get out and vote for labour.

    If a majority labour can't do anything about any of the major problems my generation faces except three waters and a centralization of health (such sexy reforms totes exciting) then turn out is gonna be horrifically low.

    Leo winning is irrelevant, he won't be able to change anything he'll be a figure head.

    Luxon and Seymour winning will be horrendous they can do things.

    So instead of worrying about irrelevant local elections every breath, every dollar for fundraising should be going to reelecting a labour green govt and pressuring labour to right now get off their butts and excite the public. Without an excited public labours out of office and history says for a good decade.

    So instead of worrying about what irrelevant wins mayoralties which the left are weirdly concerned about and instead of defending every move labour and the greens make like one eyed followers we should all be criticizing, demanding better and pressuring this govt to abandon it's nonsensical dream of holding Tory voters and start doing something that'll get labour and green voters to the booths.

    If every labour and green voice in this country keeps defending the mediocrity of this govts second term we're not gonna push them to be better and therefore not gonna get a third term and if that happens all these reforms everyone keeps defending that are irrelevant to the immediate pressures young and poor people face will be overturned so…. It's in everyone's interests to force this damn govt to be the reactive socal democrats we know they can be and stop defending the loathsome technocrats they are right now.

    2023 will be decided by turn out. Turn out will be decided by what the govt does to make us feel we have something at stake if labour loses. We currently have nothing at stake. If the govt thinks a few lolly's being scrambled at the next budget is going to win it a third term when budgets rarely effect polling it's out of its mind. The govt needs to act today. Go to war with supermarkets, now, do something about empty houses, a CGT, decriminalize marijuana, abolish secondary taxes (like you said you would) a water bottling levy, name suppression to tennents who take their scum landlords to court, take the goods out of the gst and make it a services tax, announce buses will be permeantly half price, free ice cream, give the peasents something to hope for and get excited about…. anything.

    • Sabine 10.1

      +1

    • pat 10.2

      "Make as big a deal about Leo or Collins or any mayoralty candidate as you want noones going to turn out to vote for either cos we don't feel connected to our cities or towns cos we own have nothing and have nothing to tie us here or have any bonds to our cities or towns so we're not gonna vote. Local elections are for home owners and political tragics.

      A mayor can't change anything. They are a figure head role. Who cares who a mayor is they are just another councilor."

      It seems to me that the reason that local body elections dont change anything for non property owners is because they dont make the effort to vote.

    • Anker 10.3

      100% Corey. You nail it yet again

    • gypsy 10.4

      "Leo winning is irrelevant, he won't be able to change anything he'll be a figure head."

      Very true, and that applies to any mayor. The only way a mayor can truly advance his/her agenda is to have a majority of councillors in the same camp, and that's up to the voters. Even then, they will butt heads up against the flaws in the super city model, as well as a bureaucracy that is highly resistant to change.

    • Ad 10.5

      Sorry about your tired feels Corey.

      Now listen up. The Mayor of Auckland sets the budget.

      So whether you own a house or not, you will notice the Mayor and indeed the elected Council if the budget alters to:

      – Sell a park near you for housing.

      – Sell the pensioner housing you live in.

      – Sell the Ports of Auckland.

      – Cut public transport down to a minimum

      – Completely deregulate the bus fleet

      – Close down polls and libraries that are under-used

      – Shut regional parks because they cost too much to maintain

      – Stop investing in stormwater separation

      – Cut all spending in cycleways

      – Stop hosting events in your neighbourhood or downtown

      All of those things and worse have happened before because the hard-commercial right got in.

      As for the straight politics of where we are going, if National get in next time, a Labour-Green dominated Council is the only political protection you will have left against National doing whatever they want.

      And that's happened before as well, for those who have a memory into the late 1990s.

      • Sacha 10.5.1

        The Mayor of Auckland sets the budget.

        Nope. The Mayor proposes the Budget. The Councillors set it.

        And the government can change the laws controlling local government any time they like, so a majority of Councillors is no protection.

        • Ad 10.5.1.1

          Actually it's the Council that sets it when they vote on it in Committee.

          A majority of Council has been pretty good protection in the past, even when the legislation changes. You would know that if you understood the political history of Auckland in the late 1990s, as I indicated.

          • Sacha 10.5.1.1.1

            it's the Council that sets it when they vote on it in Committee.

            The Councillors, in other words, not just the Mayor. Don't be cute.

            • Ad 10.5.1.1.1.1

              No it's the Councillors and Mayor together. That's the Council.

              Be precise if you are going to be pedantic.

              • Sacha

                Be precise if you are going to get things so wrong.

                The Mayor of Auckland sets the budget.

  11. peter sim 11

    .

  12. Ted Johnston 12

    You are correct, as a victim of their crooked poll I can support what you say. I have sent a press release to you.

    Thank you for focussing on this. My complaint to the RANZ as an affected person will hopefully help make polls more honest. Its a start.

    Ted Johnston

    Auckland Mayoralty candidate.

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