The latest Reid Research poll

Written By: - Date published: 4:10 pm, April 12th, 2019 - 173 comments
Categories: greens, jacinda ardern, labour, national - Tags:

It is a couple of days old but news of the poll are still reverberating. 

And so I thought it worthy of a post.  Newstalk ZB has the details:

A new Reid Research poll was commissioned by Business NZ, intended to gauge public support for capital gains tax, has shown minimal support for the smaller parties. 

The poll began on March 15, the same day as the terror attack, and ran until March 23, two days after Ardern announced the detail of gun reforms at her post Cabinet press conference.

As part of it, the 1000 polled were also asked which party they supported.

Once those who did not give a choice of party are taken out, Labour was on 49.6 per cent, National on 41.3 per cent and NZ First and the Green Party were languishing on 2.3 per cent and 3.9 per cent respectively.

In the last Newshub Reid Research poll from February, Labour was on 47.5 and National was on 41.6 per cent.

And the bad news for National may not be over.  The poll was taken from March 15 to March 23.  Ever since then I have seen almost universal admiration for Jacinda Ardern.  And on the ground campaigning has shown a warmth for progressives that I have not seen in quite a while.

The plight of the Greens is of concern but I am confident they will improve matters.

National must be worried.  I would confidently predict that the next poll will see them under 40% unless things dramatically change.

The basic problem for all other parties is that right now Jacinda Ardern is burning bright.  And no one is close to matching her. 

173 comments on “The latest Reid Research poll ”

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  1. James 1
    12 April 2019 at 4:15 pm

    “The basic problem for all other parties is that right now Jacinda Ardern is burning bright. And no one is close to matching her. ”

    Hard to argue with that. Pretty much sums it up.

    I do however disagree with you on the greens – they are heading to gone burger.

    • Gareth 1.1
      13 April 2019 at 9:21 am

      The poll has a margin of error of 3.1%, so the results look more like:

      Labour 46.5 – 52.7
      National 38.2 – 44.4
      Greens – 0.8 – 7
      New Zealand First 0 – 5.4

      I’d take “languishing” with a grain of salt. You can’t accurately gauge support in this sort of poll when the margin of error is almost the same as what you’re trying to measure.

      • Incognito 1.1.1
        13 April 2019 at 9:42 am

        Incorrect, the MOE at 2.3% is 0.93% and at 3.9% it is 1.20%; the mentioned MOE of polls almost always refers to the midpoint of 50% unless indicated otherwise.

        • Sacha 1.1.1.1
          13 April 2019 at 10:40 am

          Quite. Which would make Greens 2.7 – 5.1 and Winston First 1.4 – 3.2
          I wish they would report the ranges for each party.

    • Bearded Git 1.2
      13 April 2019 at 10:22 am

      I doubt that the Greens have gone James-I appreciate you find it difficult to come to terms with an ethical party getting elected. But it is helpful that you are reminding Labour voters that they are unlikely to be elected without the Greens.

      Nats 45.0
      Lab 44.6
      Greens 4.9
      NZF 4.0
      Wasted 1.5

      Means a National government.

      If you want a Labour-led government tactical voters take note.

  2. Enough is Enough 2
    12 April 2019 at 4:21 pm

    Labour is doing what National did – cannibalising its support partners.

    It worked for National because they could rely on Dunne, Turia, Seymour winning electorate seats. I am not sure Labour has that luxury.

    • Anne 2.1
      12 April 2019 at 6:58 pm

      So, you’re saying that Labour arranged for the massacre to take place so that Jacinda Ardern could shine so bright they would be able to “cannibalise” its support partners?

      Some would say that is a conspiracy par excellence.

      • Michael who failed Civics 2.1.1
        13 April 2019 at 1:07 am

        If Labour did arrange it, they’ve made Machiavelli look like a bumbling amateur. Sp cunning, in fact, you could put a tail on it and call it a weasel.

      • Rae 2.1.2
        14 April 2019 at 8:39 am

        And don’t forget she is to blame for the downturn in the world’s economy.

  3. greywarshark 3
    12 April 2019 at 4:25 pm

    Why would Labour want to cannibalise its support parties. The whole idea of MMP
    is that everyone in the minorities and lower income levels has or is supposed to have, a stake in the government. If Labour could use their power to do something practical that benefits us all, business included, then it could become the natural leader. If only…Too late….I hope i won’t hear those awful words which I hate as indicating sad, missed opportunities.

    • Psycho Milt 3.1
      12 April 2019 at 6:31 pm

      Why would Labour want to cannibalise its support parties.

      It’s not a matter of what Labour wants or doesn’t want. If Ardern is constantly on the TV being universally adored, that improves Labour’s support, and a significant part of that increase will come from Labour’s support partners.

      • Tuppence Shrewsbury 3.1.1
        13 April 2019 at 8:57 am

        I agree. Though you’d think it would be based more on policies than photo ops. A common trope bandied around the standard during the glorious days of the Key / English economic renaissance

        Jacinda has performed with such compassion she is the embodiment of her own speech about a new way of government. I’m in Australia right now and they are universally jealous of having a leader like Jacinda

        Simon is doing his best to help her by looking shifty as fuck about everything. Marama and Golriz are doing the greens no favours any time they open there mouths. Shame jones is doing annadmirabke job as a history teacher,reminding the electorate of the last time Nz first were in government.

        I’m only surprised Jacinda hasn’t got 50% of the vote

  4. The Fairy Godmother 4
    12 April 2019 at 4:29 pm

    Come the election all the parties will have some airtime. The Greens have a natural base as do New Zealand First. They are not puppet one man band parties in the way The Dunne and Seymour party are. I think it highly likely at least the Greens will make the 5% mark.

    • Cinny 4.1
      12 April 2019 at 5:07 pm

      Absolutely agree with you Fairy Godmother, the Greens will get over 5% and they usually gain an extra seat after the special votes.

      Fun fact….. maureen pugh usually loses her seat after the special votes have been counted, it’s happened two elections in a row now 🙂

      As well there should be a good turnout of voters this coming election due to the referendums at the same time.

    • cleangreen 4.2
      12 April 2019 at 6:26 pm

      Shane will win his seat for sure as lots of RGF funds are going there.

      Winston will stay there as an anchor for NZF as every meeting we went to the older members love him so much.

      Winston will want to keep the ugly ‘Inter-National’ Party out from ruling over his flock.

      I left the greens in 2002 when Rod Donald died and now today’s Green Party has hardly any older ‘seasoned Green Party’ folks around any more, so they are looking very much directionless.

      • mosa 4.2.1
        12 April 2019 at 6:33 pm

        C.G Rod died in 2005 so at least you gave them three more years.

        • cleangreen 4.2.1.1
          12 April 2019 at 6:55 pm

          Mosa,

          Sorry yes I had to leave in 2002 as we four Green Party members began a local group ‘Environmental Advocacy Centre’ and the Green Party HQ asked us to leave when we did.

          We kept going to meetings when Jeanette Fitzsimmons and Rod and Sue Kedgley came into a Napier public meeting.

          God we miss Rob he was a visionary and a very powerful but soft persuasive speaker.

          Sorry we have no calibre of that today.

          • Stuart Munro. 4.2.1.1.1
            13 April 2019 at 8:56 am

            Yep, I miss him too, had a few good chats with him. He always made a point of listening, which is not terribly common in our form of democracy.

      • Peter 4.2.2
        12 April 2019 at 8:31 pm

        Shane Jone will only win his electorate, (if he stands in Whangarei again), if there are no other candidates. He registered almost 19% of the vote in 2017.

        And anyway the RGF funds going to Whangarei would hardly equal the amount which incumbent MP Shane Reti is spending on advertising. retirement will fly in.

      • Rae 4.2.3
        14 April 2019 at 8:42 am

        I am not at all sure about Winston doing another round. I doubt his health will hold up.

    • Infused 4.3
      13 April 2019 at 8:30 am

      Greens have stuffed it with the rabid shit they have been saying the last 6 months. Nzfirst has pissed off all his long time supporters. I dont think either will make the cut.

      2020 is labours to lose. Remember all govts get a bump when a catastrophe happens. What happened here though is that the increase came at the expense of supporting parties. National barely moved.

      • Jenny - How to get there? 4.3.1
        13 April 2019 at 1:00 pm

        Infused, Instead of ‘spray and walk away’, you could tell us what you think ‘the rabid shit the Green Party have been saying the last 6 months.

  5. Stuart Munro. 5
    12 April 2019 at 4:38 pm

    Labour is doing well, and I’m not too concerned about NZF, because they generally pick up a lot of dissenters in the run up to an election. I think the Greens have a few problems however. 1080 is by no means a win among all their supporters. Water would be, but it isn’t happening, nor are river recoveries. Offshore land and business sales like ports continue. Plastic bags was good, but it wasn’t legislatively challenging. Their bedrock is pretty solid of course, but they don’t need to lose much soft support to put them near the line.

    • cleangreen 5.1
      12 April 2019 at 6:27 pm

      True that Stuart, see my take above.

    • Jenny - How to get there? 5.2
      13 April 2019 at 1:28 pm

      1080, water, offshore land sales, plastic bags

      Hi, Stuart

      The five issues you listed as relevant to the Green Party’s re-election, omitted climate change. How did you miss the 300 pound gorilla riding a stampeding elephant in the front room?

      Any particular reason for ignoring the biggest environmental issue of all time?

  6. ScottGN 6
    12 April 2019 at 4:47 pm

    Under this poll, once the wasted voted is redistributed to Labour and National, Labour would be a majority government with 65 seats. National would have 55. All the other parties would be gone. Very FPTP in style.
    The previous Reid Research Poll was a better result really. Labour 60 + Greens 7 = 67 a strong MMP majority government. National would have 53 seats. Every other party gone.

  7. indiana 7
    12 April 2019 at 5:29 pm

    “Ever since then I have seen almost universal admiration for Jacinda Ardern. And on the ground campaigning has shown a warmth for progressives that I have not seen in quite a while.”

    Labour does not needs to be concerned about raising too much money for and election campaign…it’ll be a walk in the park for them.

  8. AB 8
    12 April 2019 at 6:06 pm

    This is the high-water mark.
    Labour will settle back and the Greens will come up, as there are plenty of people to the left of an Ardern/Robertson Labour party. Winston will survive – 2008 took a concerted National/MSM effort and a manufactured pseudo-scandal to push him under 5% and even then it was close.
    And National will limp to 2020 with Bridges at the helm because nobody else wants the job yet. He will still pull 40% as a large chunk of NZ society will have nowhere else to go..

    Second-term Labour will start to look a bit lame though in comparison to a Sanders defeat of Trump in the same year – which might conceivably happen. However the ensuing conflagration of violent opposition is something we wouldn’t want here – so lame might be good in that respect.

    • alwyn 8.1
      13 April 2019 at 5:57 pm

      It probably is as good as it gets for Labour.
      Disasters always favour the party in Government at the time, but it never lasts for very long.
      For example in 2011, around the time of the second Christchurch quake, the polls on either side of the quake gave an enormous swing to National.
      The quake was on 22 Feb.
      A poll on 20 Feb had National on 51% and Labour on 33%.
      Then on 17 April, about 7 weeks after the quake the reported numbers were National on 57.5% and Labour on 27.1%.
      By the time of the election about 7 months after the quake it was finally National on 47.3% and Labout on 27.5%.

      I think that Labour will be most unhappy they didn’t do better.

      I think the same thing will happen here to the Labour vote in particular.
      On the other hand both NZF and the Greens have been so overshadowed that I think they are gone for good. After the election we will have a Parliament of 119 members from Labour and National plus a lonely Seymour.

      • Muttonbird 8.1.1
        13 April 2019 at 7:02 pm

        National are stuck in a very, very difficult place. This is as good as it gets for them with no far right partner.

        41% is pretty similar to the 32%+9% Labour/Greens managed over recent years and they were in semi-permanent opposition.

        National has nowhere to go but down and I am overjoyed at that thought. NZ deserves better than those crooks and their supporters.

  9. BM 9
    12 April 2019 at 6:13 pm

    Peters could decide to walk at any time and go into government with National.
    Thus ending the reign of Ardern.

    At the moment they’re gone burger, they need some serious win to stay alive, might actually be what saves NZ First?, they desperately need to get out from underneath the shadow of Ardern, that goes for the Greens as well.

    The election is still a very long way off and no one can predict the future.

    • ScottGN 9.1
      12 April 2019 at 6:26 pm

      As PM Ardern enjoys the right to call an election whenever she wants BM. Ever since the first poll of the year that had Labour in a strong position I imagine that even the remote possibility that she might do that (a la Hooten’s recent opining) has been very focussing for all the parties in the parliament.

      • BM 9.1.1
        12 April 2019 at 6:29 pm

        How can she call an election if NZ First and National decided to form a government?

        Or is it some sort of get in first scenario? once the current PM says election, that’s it, to the polls we go? is that how it works?

        • mosa 9.1.1.1
          12 April 2019 at 6:36 pm

          BM on the bottle again !
          Time for some therapy !

        • ScottGN 9.1.1.2
          12 April 2019 at 6:46 pm

          The PM can ask the the GG to prorogue the parliament anytime he or she wants. In fact Morrison just got the Aussie GG to prorogue the parliament in Canberra, rather than a dissolution to trigger the election over there.
          I guess it’s possible that if Ardern was to inform the GG that she no longer commanded confidence of the House the GG could allow Bridges to test that confidence (i.e. your wacky scenario) with his new-found friends in NZFirst but in the face of a government bust-up like you’re positing it’s far more likely the GG would be within her rights to believe that the resulting administration was lacking in legitimacy and durability and move to dissolve the current parliament and require fresh elections. Commanding confidence in the parliament isn’t the only thing the Sovereign has, or needs, to consider. An election, you’d have to think, is the last thing NZFirst would want right now.

          • BM 9.1.1.2.1
            12 April 2019 at 6:54 pm

            National + NZ First is greater than 50%, be pretty hard for the GG to say that the resulting administration was lacking in legitimacy and durability.

            An election, you’d have to think, is the last thing NZFirst would want right now.

            Of course, at the moment they’re a dead party walking.

            • ScottGN 9.1.1.2.1.1
              12 April 2019 at 7:10 pm

              But so is National right? They’ve gone backwards since the last election and are now about 10% adrift of Labour. If Bridges was to try and pull the stunt you’re suggesting the punishment from the electorate at the next election (and I think it would be sooner rather than later) would be massive.

              • BM …
                12 April 2019 at 7:25 pm

                Be the end of Ardern though, the wonder girl would up sticks and head for the far greener pastures of the UN.

                • ScottGN …
                  12 April 2019 at 7:31 pm

                  You reckon? Don’t you think the last few weeks have shown that a global audience (you’re assuming I guess that that’s what she craves) is just as possible from Wellington as New York nowadays? she doesn’t need to up sticks and go anywhere.

                • Ankerrawshark …
                  13 April 2019 at 9:38 am

                  BM channeling the useless Kate hawkeby

        • JanM 9.1.1.3
          12 April 2019 at 10:41 pm

          Have you lost the plot completely? Why would Winston have anything to do with National after the way they have treated him?

    • cleangreen 9.2
      12 April 2019 at 6:28 pm

      BM In your dreams lad.

      • BM 9.2.1
        12 April 2019 at 6:34 pm

        More of a nightmare, but Bridges is a desperate Man so I wouldn’t put anything past him.
        Not like he’s ruled out NZ First or anything like that?

        • Muttonbird 9.2.1.1
          12 April 2019 at 7:06 pm

          Winston Peters hates Simon Bridges more than English, and even Key if that’s possible. Simon Bridges embodies all that is wrong with the National Party. There’s simply no way Peters will endorse a worse product than one which he has already rejected.

          • mac1 9.2.1.1.1
            12 April 2019 at 8:05 pm

            I’ve heard Peters in public at meetings with Grey Power and on the hustings locally. His dislike of National was real, visceral and clear. His interaction with Ardern in his many questions in the House during Question Time directed to the PM but against National is further and ongoing evidence that what BM is postulating just ain’t gonna happen in this term of Parliament. Wishful, last gasp thinking. All I can think of is Hitler poring over a table full of representations of lost divisions and non-existent armies proclaiming that secret super weapons would destroy the Allies and then the Allies and the Germans would unite to destroy the Bolshevik menace. Bosh!

    • Psycho Milt 9.3
      12 April 2019 at 6:37 pm

      Peters could decide to walk at any time and go into government with National.

      He could decide to shoot himself in the face as well, but the likelihood of either is somewhat remote.

    • left_forward 9.4
      12 April 2019 at 7:06 pm

      The only thing goneburger bm and james is National.

      • James 9.4.1
        13 April 2019 at 8:25 am

        Really you are a special kind of stupid.

        But hey – I’ll take your bet

        I have $10,000 that says national are still in government or opposition after the next election – you willing to make the same bet about the greens and NZF?

        See ?

        You’re an idiot.

        • Skunk Weed 9.4.1.1
          13 April 2019 at 8:34 am

          Jimmy the Natzi’s will still be there after the 2020 Election with a severely reduced majority, whether NZF & the Greens can get enough votes to remain relevant is anyone’s guess ?

          Adern is achieving Rockstar Status like Sir John Key did when wealthy NZ property owning New Zealanders and Chinese Immigrants fell head over heels in love with him and his self made wealth “rags to riches” story.

          Adern is being held in high esteem by the world media and leaders as a true talent even Oprah Whitney is beating her drum ?

          • Muttonbird 9.4.1.1.1
            13 April 2019 at 6:48 pm

            She’s had 10 times the impact on the international stage than Key and she’s not finished yet.

            It’s funny that the hateful right call her a silly little girl when she clearly has 10 time the maturity than drop-the-soap John Key.

        • left_forward 9.4.1.2
          13 April 2019 at 6:42 pm

          A childish response Jimmy.

    • The Fairy Godmother 9.5
      12 April 2019 at 11:13 pm

      Peters is an honourable man and sticks to agreements. He lasted in the Clark government because Clark stuck to her side of the bargain. I think Adern will do the same. The reason he jumped ship in the Shipley government was because the Nats didn’t stick to the bargain.

      • Muttonbird 9.5.1
        12 April 2019 at 11:20 pm

        The Nats and their voter base are not honest people, that’s why. Never have been, never will be.

        • James 9.5.1.1
          13 April 2019 at 8:28 am

          Muttonbird wildly calls around 45% (or a bit lower depending on which poll) of the country dishonest with zero evidence and wonders why he comes across as a bitter and envious loser.

          • KJT 9.5.1.1.1
            13 April 2019 at 10:49 am

            It’s a shame that 35 years of celebrating, dishonest cheats making fortunes, has bought about that result. Eh?

          • Muttonbird 9.5.1.1.2
            13 April 2019 at 6:54 pm

            Well, you are not honest for one. There’s all that personal back history you have used in your arguments on this forum which don’t stand up to scrutiny.

            I notice you attacking the man more these days too. Not your usual happy-go-lucky self.

            Everything ok?

        • Skunk Weed 9.5.1.2
          13 April 2019 at 8:36 am

          Agree +100% never trust a Natzi ?

      • cleangreen 9.5.2
        13 April 2019 at 9:22 am

        1000% Fairy Godmother.

    • Gabby 9.6
      13 April 2019 at 12:29 am

      Who’s the nat he’d be happy working under BMmer?

    • mpledger 9.7
      13 April 2019 at 11:10 am

      The latest XKCD seems relevant.
      https://xkcd.com/2136/

  10. SPC 10
    12 April 2019 at 6:28 pm

    If there was an election, some of the Labour vote would go to the Greens to get them over 5% and some of both the Labour (those who support the L-NZF coalition continuing) and National (those who do not support the L-NZF coalition) vote would go to NZF.

    • cleangreen 10.1
      12 April 2019 at 6:30 pm

      SPC Maybe or not.

    • bwaghorn 10.2
      12 April 2019 at 6:32 pm

      If i was a nat voter i would consider voting nzf because the nats havnt got a hope in hell at the next election.

      • BM 10.2.1
        12 April 2019 at 6:36 pm

        That’s what I’ll do if Bridges is still Leader in 2020.

        Be the fly in the ointment.

        • bwaghorn 10.2.1.1
          12 April 2019 at 6:38 pm

          You already are old chap.

        • Infused 10.2.1.2
          13 April 2019 at 8:34 am

          Dont know why. Hes a dickhead. Better voting act.

          My old man voted for Peter’s and never wants to talk about it now. Hes seriously pissed off an older generation. He will be gone next election

          • higherstandard 10.2.1.2.1
            13 April 2019 at 8:46 am

            “He will be gone next election”

            No doubt about that the question will be where ?

            Dead ? He’s none to healthy although he did give up smoking some years back.

            Assuming Labour get in at the next election (not a dead certainty but quite likely) or Winston did a deal during the coalition talks I’m expecting a five to ten year sinecure along the lines of Anette King’s for the old trougher. Not that he needs it as he’ll be banking the old politicians super plus perks now and though his dotage.

      • cleangreen 10.2.2
        12 April 2019 at 8:58 pm

        Waghorn; Actually you have the best advice there as NZF is a balanced common sense party now.

        • bwaghorn 10.2.2.1
          12 April 2019 at 9:44 pm

          Didnt want them there but i thnk Winston is doing ok .
          Jurys out on the jones boy.

        • KJT 10.2.2.2
          13 April 2019 at 9:52 am

          Shane Jones.

          Opposed removing 90 day bills.
          Opposed increasing workers rights.

          On behalf of Talleys.

          “Sensible” if you think accepting bribes/sorry funding for legislation favouring one family business, is sensible.

      • Skunk Weed 10.2.3
        13 April 2019 at 8:39 am

        National voters will have to vote NZF at the next Election 2020 as a form of cheap insurance otherwise we will have a Labour Party in control of the purse strings and all hell could break loose with reckless spending on unviable projects and whacky ideology ?

        • KJT 10.2.3.1
          13 April 2019 at 9:53 am

          Like the last nine years, eh, SW?

        • bwaghorn 10.2.3.2
          13 April 2019 at 1:17 pm

          It will help the cosevitaves sleep at night .
          Also if the idea gets out that you better vote winston because the nats are fucked it becomes a self fulfilling
          Proficy. ( sorry for the spelling spell check let me down )😏

  11. Skunk Weed 11
    12 April 2019 at 6:30 pm

    NZF will be history once Winston resigns as he has a cult like status with his followers, who will pick up the reins, Shane Jones, Ron Marks or Tracey Martin ?

    • cleangreen 11.1
      12 April 2019 at 6:33 pm

      Yes correct Skunk weed

      Winston has a very loyal devoted following for sure as we see it every time we attend a meeting he goes to.

      He is a legend.

      • higherstandard 11.1.1
        12 April 2019 at 7:09 pm

        Is ‘legend’ the tag the young one’s use for describing a piss soaked old troughing bigot these days ?

        • Psycho Milt 11.1.1.1
          12 April 2019 at 7:15 pm

          Hey, some of us are planning to be at the very least piss-soaked and old at some point, if perhaps not bigots (nor troughers, if only perhaps through lack of opportunity/ambition). In WP’s case, there is a case to be made that someone able to forge a lucrative career out of suckers being born any minute could be called a “legend” – not all legends are attractive ones.

        • Gabby 11.1.1.2
          13 April 2019 at 12:31 am

          Nobody’s calling Judee a legend hirestandards.

    • bwaghorn 11.2
      12 April 2019 at 6:35 pm

      Better hope winston hangs on or well see a cup of tea being shared in nothland between jones and who ever is the nat leader.

    • JanM 11.3
      12 April 2019 at 10:47 pm

      Tracey Martin is a very fine person = she would be great

  12. Pat 12
    12 April 2019 at 6:49 pm

    The fact National are still polling above 40% is a positive for them….given all that has occurred….their base is substantial and holding

    • KJT 12.1
      12 April 2019 at 6:53 pm

      Amazing.

      But as we know, about 40% of the population are below average intelligence.

      10 more bridges to sell you.

    • cleangreen 12.2
      12 April 2019 at 6:58 pm

      True Pat,

      Crusher Collins doesn’t look to happy?

      Wonder if greens will join them?

      Maybe national will give them a free seat?

      They did this for Act.

      Labour could give NZF a seat as well?

    • ScottGN 12.3
      12 April 2019 at 7:07 pm

      Yeah but holding the base at 40% (and between them Labour and the Greens have a similar 40% base) isn’t going to deliver government unless they can bridge the gap to 48% to 50% with another party. Still no sign of that happening.

      • Pat 12.3.1
        12 April 2019 at 7:42 pm

        no it isnt…but sooner or later an alternative will present itself

        • ScottGN 12.3.1.1
          12 April 2019 at 7:50 pm

          You think so? Whenever something possible comes along National’s instinct is to devour it. It may just be that, intrinsically National won’t support a party on their flank. I mean how much longer do they need to get to grips with the mechanics of MMP?

    • swordfish 12.4
      13 April 2019 at 8:14 am

      Pat

      The fact National are still polling above 40% is a positive for them

      Yeah, I agree.

      On the one hand …

      Last year, a whole swathe of media political comentators significantly overstated just how well the Nats were allegedly doing. Much talk of them supposedly defying political gravity … the core notion – pushed by everyone from Chris Trotter to Tracy Watkins, David Farrar to Heather du Plessis-Allan – being that the 2018 Nats were proving almost unique in avoiding the rapid plunge in popularity allegedly suffered by virtually all previous newly-defeated Major Opposition Parties.

      But that simply wasn’t true. Mass voter desertion is not even remotely the historic norm for Major Parties that have just lost power. The claim actually inverts reality … set against historical precedent, the 2018 Nats were actually performing mildly below par (in terms of their post-Election Poll trajectory).

      But …

      Having said that, in the current (post-March 15) political climate … I’d say the Nats could be forgiven for being quietly content with their polling numbers.

      I mean, clearly they haven’t been able to win back their former supporters & other Righties who swung to Labour at the 2017 Election … nor the small segment who clearly swung from Nat to Lab last year … but they have managed to avoid the very real prospect of a plunge following the PMs internationally acclaimed performance over the last few weeks.

      (Although, of course, in the wake of the Christchurch Massacre, it still feels a little distasteful to be analysing Party Support numbers … particularly in relation to the event itself)

      • Pat 12.4.1
        13 April 2019 at 8:54 am

        I went back and checked Nationals polling numbers post Jenny Shipley when Bill English took over leadership and discovered a Colmar poll that had them at 39%…I find it surprising that for all the problems National had coming out of Shipley’s leadership they were nothing compared to the contemporary situation and yet that bar hasnt been limboed (yet)…and Bridges is not the politician English was even back then….tribalism in stark relief.

        The event itself (and responses) is only part of the story.

        • swordfish 12.4.1.1
          13 April 2019 at 9:46 am

          Yep … the 2017 General Election may have been unusually closely-contested but those voting decisions have also remained unusually stable over the last 18 months. Significantly less support volatility than in past post-Election periods of the 80s / 90s / early Zeros. It’s much more like the 70s.

          (Incidentally, Nat support had started to rebound in the months between (1) MPs making up their mind to dump Shipley once and for all and (2) the actual day of the leadership spill itself. Support then plunged fairly quickly after English displaced Shipley … although, as you’ve implied, not in the initial few polls)

      • Anne 12.4.2
        13 April 2019 at 9:35 am

        There are two further factors that need to be taken into account.

        First, the meme which had been steadily growing traction that Jacinda was a nice person but not up to the job. It was started by Bridges and the Nats (of course) but their media stooges quickly picked it up and ran with it. It was a good fit for the conservative and misogynistic among us, but is going to be a good deal less successful in the foreseeable future.

        The second relates to the average age of the media contingent which seems to be around 30-33. The dearth of historical political knowledge among this age group is astounding. You could almost go so far as to mention ‘Norman Kirk’ and they would want to know whether he was a National or Labour PM. That means they are free to pass judgements and predictions without any recourse to historical precedents of any note.

        • Incognito 12.4.2.1
          13 April 2019 at 9:49 am

          There used to be another meme too. Ardern was an ‘accidental’ PM and it was rightful for National to be leading Government because of scoring the majority plurality vote in the GE. It was only because of WP that National got denied their rightful place.

      • Sacha 12.4.3
        13 April 2019 at 10:56 am

        “pushed by everyone from Chris Trotter to Tracy Watkins, David Farrar to Heather du Plessis-Allan”

        My, what a diverse line-up. 🙂

  13. KJT 13
    12 April 2019 at 7:08 pm

    If the questions were as leading as the one on CGT, this poll is rather suspect.

    • ScottGN 13.1
      12 April 2019 at 7:12 pm

      Absolutely. Let’s not forget this was a poll conducted on behalf of Business NZ. As part of their lobbying around a CGT. The only real surprise is just how well Labour did in it. Alarm bells must be ringing in National.

  14. Muttonbird 14
    12 April 2019 at 7:18 pm

    It should be pointed out that this poll was at the height of the attacks on the CGT so should be a high point for National and yet they are dropping.

    Worrying signs for greedy New Zealanders.

    • ScottGN 14.1
      12 April 2019 at 7:24 pm

      It was also conducted through most of the immediate aftermath of the terror attack on Christchurch.

      • Muttonbird 14.1.1
        12 April 2019 at 8:15 pm

        It’s amazing support for the Nats is so high even considering it’s a Business NZ commissioned poll.

        Amazing considering Simon Bridges multiple gaffs and mismanagement.

        Amazing that those polled would still vote for a government lead by a man who has caused so much trouble for his own party through clumsiness and corruption, and who is clearly unfit to lead a country. Those polled will be responding with base, tribal aversion to sharing wealth for the good of all. It is after all the major focus for right wing people.

        Consider how Jacinda Ardern’s qualities have been amplified since becoming PM both domestically and internationally. Then consider how Simon Bridges qualities would also be amplified both domestically and internationally were he to become PM…

        That is a scary thought!

        • WeTheBleeple 14.1.1.1
          12 April 2019 at 9:34 pm

          An international embarrassment the comedians would make a meal of his accent, then we’d have people throwing Simon at us like Aussies get Crocodile Dundee.

          Mocking our woy of loife.

  15. The Al1en 15
    12 April 2019 at 7:26 pm

    Fingers crossed this is the end of NZ1st – Horrible centre right party. They only went with labour because Peters was on a revenge mission for 2008 and key’s risk managing, ruling him out all those times because he’s flaky and clearly the majority of people really don’t like or trust him.

    Fortunately, JA isn’t key, and the potential for damage, as repeatedly seen by Jones’ actions and Winston’s senility catching up with him, hasn’t touched her numbers in the slightest. Probably she gains by being seen as his tamer.

    Parliament would be best served without the old tory anywhere near it.

  16. peterlepaysan 16
    12 April 2019 at 8:49 pm

    Winston is a very,very cunning survivor. Do not write him off.

    We live in an MMP environment.

    National still holds to its cherished white male self entitled rulership rule.

    The mmp referendum (back when?), and the March 15 (2019) massacre might (just) have shifted them out of the 19th century.

    The wealthy payrollers of the natz need to wake up.

    Wealth belongs to all of us that help create it, not to only the capitalistic mafia that is the nz national party.

    If polls mean anything (something I doubt) it is depressing that that some 40% of those polled think that the natz should govern. Highly questionsable on any long term business grounds.

    What sort of fwits would support the natz? Surely not clever business people?

    • cleangreen 16.1
      12 April 2019 at 9:10 pm

      1000% correct Peter.

    • James 16.2
      13 April 2019 at 8:36 am

      “National still holds to its cherished white male self entitled rulership rule.”

      Keep up sunshine.

      Simon bridges is Maori.

      • KJT 16.2.1
        13 April 2019 at 8:40 am

        Only when he thinks it will get him votes.

        • cleangreen 16.2.1.1
          13 April 2019 at 11:35 am

          Simon Bridges = changeable as NZ weather now is.

        • Muttonbird 16.2.1.2
          13 April 2019 at 4:55 pm

          Indeed. Can you imagine Bridges embracing the language and culture of Maori? 5% preferred PM would begin to look good.

          James doesn’t understand what is and isn’t Maori, he’s English.

      • Rapunzel 16.2.2
        13 April 2019 at 8:52 am

        What does that mean? How does is “thimblespoon” of something relevant? He is all of the other things plus “religious” before he is even remotely “Maori” in any relevant sense.

        • James 16.2.2.1
          13 April 2019 at 10:46 am

          So much casual racism. Sorry that you are not happy enough with his maori %age and therefore it’s ok to call him white.

          • Rapunzel 16.2.2.1.1
            13 April 2019 at 1:20 pm

            I’m just not sure when you decided he is Maori I am suggesting he is more than that and that those plus religion have far more bearing on his thoughts so how Maori he is irrelevant except to you and him when it suits you both.

            • James 16.2.2.1.1.1
              13 April 2019 at 3:41 pm

              You do understand people don’t get to decide if he is Maori – he is Maori.

              Right ?

              • Rapunzel …
                13 April 2019 at 6:29 pm

                100%? Nothing else? What sort of BS is that?

              • peterlepaysan …
                13 April 2019 at 9:39 pm

                My response was about the national party. Not about Bridges.

                Pay attention.

                If you do not pay attention you mighy be considered a troll.

        • Skunk Weed 16.2.2.2
          13 April 2019 at 10:50 am

          Correct Simon and Pulla have only a thimble full of Maori blood in them and pull it out on the odd occasion to appeal to the Maori voters ?

    • greywarshark 16.3
      13 April 2019 at 9:44 pm

      The sort that will vote nat are the ones who view them as the right party to keep them wealthy. That is the main thing. Utterly materialistic, might go to church if it enhances their image. Not interested in people outside their clique, so tales of houselessness and bad health for others won’t move them. If things look good to them and for them tha’s the ticket.

  17. Grantoc 17
    12 April 2019 at 10:45 pm

    The circumstances at the time of this poll were unique. The Christchurch massacre had occurred just as polling started and Jacinda was doing a superb job as pm in leading the response to this event. She dominated the media. National, like Labour before it at the time of the Christchurch earthquakes, was invisible.

    Of course Labour improved its position in the polls. Its probably surprising that they didn’t do better.

    However national polities are returning to normality. Debates over the proposed Capital Gains Tax; housing: education reforms, strikes, a slowing economy etc means that National will be back in the game. If anything, if National is half way effective as an opposition, the next poll is just as likely to show a narrowing of the gap between the two major parties.

    Arden has a considerable amount of political capital in the bank right now. Strategically her best move may well be to call an early election. In doing so there’s a very good chance that NZ First would not be returned (and maybe the greens as well). Under this scenario Labour would be returned decisively, unencumbered by NZ First and with a strong mandate to carry out its agenda. NZ First are on the wrong side of the debate right now and are very vulnerable if there were to be an early election.

    • Stuart Munro. 17.1
      13 April 2019 at 7:30 am

      “if National is half way effective as an opposition”

      I’m not sure they’ve quite come up to that standard as yet, they still seem to kvetch randomly rather than strategically.

      And there is still a declining trend which need not have bottomed out yet. A lot of it will be based on Gnat non-performances that they were able to conceal while they were in power – things like mass immigration fraud, appalling mismanagement of the Chch rebuild, poo in the rivers, nitrification of aquifers, and mycoplasma. These issues also limit their ability to attack productively in each sphere.

  18. Observer Tokoroa 18
    13 April 2019 at 8:08 am

    About Winston

    I think there is a bond between Jacinda and Winston. Not only a Bond – but a very strong Bond.

    I believe that the public are aware of that. They know that Winston has performed his roles with a very adept Hand. Time and time again.

    Not only that, he looks a fine distinguished man when on Overseas Assignments. That’s because he has a finely chiseled Mind. He is always ahead of the assignment.

    Every time the Dames of Simon try to demolish him they fall on their fat bottoms. They lack elegance, wit or ANY ideas. Not just Judith. But Frau Bennett too.

    Simon has been hanging around Police and Parliament for many years now and National are looking shabby.

    Worse still, they are shoveling money into the hands of the very wealthy, while fine Workers are struggling monstrously – courtesy of Hosking, granny herald, flushy Boag, John Liar Key, Billy low life English. All of whom are monstrously wealthy.

    National is on the cusp of Anihilation. All down to GREED.

    Fortunately, Seymour is allowing National to kill themselves off without a doctor .

    • Rapunzel 18.1
      13 April 2019 at 8:42 am

      There is no way the Winston Peters will go any where National, by the time, if they do or can do anything to redeem themselves to electable he probably by then will have retired. Even if they have not been properly called to acccount for what they did to the NZ housing market that has put many middle NZers on the back foot or entirely out of the market forever the so-called internal enquiry plus the continuation of chucking staff under the bus and bad mouthing MPs that they refuse to “comment” on are warning signs enough they have learned nothing.
      Living in Tauranga I have moved to the Maori roll so my candidate vote is not wasted again and if it looks to be necessary I will party vote NZF because while no one has a “magic wand” and never did the coalition is providing a fine and much better balance for NZers than any other option would ever go close to.

    • cleangreen 18.2
      13 April 2019 at 11:22 am

      Observation Tokoroa

      Yes we agree “Inter’National” are clutching at straws again tying the old ‘discredit policy on Shane Jones on today’s ‘The Nation”.

      The attempt by the Natz ‘stool pigeon’ -Toba O’Brian’s loaded accusations just effectively bounced off Shane as he wiped the floor with her stupid questions and lack of respect.

    • Bazza64 18.3
      13 April 2019 at 6:00 pm

      Distinguished on overseas assignments- Does that include when he was in Turkey doing a Robert Mugabe & having a kip while he was on NZ business? Not a bad job getting paid to sleep, to be fair maybe he was scared the Turks would lock him up if he complained about Ergodan

  19. James 19
    13 April 2019 at 8:39 am

    I think this is a high point for Jacinda (I feel people are voting for her – not labour).

    Once labour start with the CGT sell (when they finally make up their mind at the end of the month) and the gun buyback (which I predict they will short change a lot of people because they are scared of the total cost). People will see a very real impact for them in the pocket and labour’s numbers will come down.

    • Rapunzel 19.1
      13 April 2019 at 8:43 am

      You’re wrong, this person – me for one – is voting for the coalition and not the leader, that the leader is performing well and working well with her deputy and govt partners is just a plus.

      • James 19.1.1
        13 April 2019 at 9:09 am

        Sorry I should have said a lot of people – obv not all. There will be some that vote for the col but the current big swing is behind JA. Just read the comments they are all about her and her image.

        • Rapunzel 19.1.1.1
          13 April 2019 at 9:37 am

          If you want to get hung up on image in my view there was/is an “image” that the National Party was competent expecially fiscally so and also in my view that around 40% of NZers stick to that “idea” as they view it as the “safest/conservative” option. Some economists opinions seem to be that globalisation/expansion has reached a peaked and more organic ways to live other than purely focussing on “money” are the new “norm” that people are heading to willingly or not. If Ardern represents a new “norm” that people relate to and which they perceive as being of better all round benefit to them and their families it is a counter option to what has been the “norm” previously.
          The new norm I think is healthy and useful, but it requires the sort of thought and participation that looked to have become a thing of the past. Just a small hint at this is parents/young people being more relaxed, and I have seen happier, about them taking up everyday trades rather than the fiction they will go to university and be the new “Hawkings/Gates/Jobs or whatever”.
          Engagement of more people and their participation is the “ideal” that needs to be worked towards.

    • KJT 19.2
      13 April 2019 at 8:46 am

      Every poll but one, which used a blatantly leading question, says the majority support a CGT.
      And only a few care, if the owners of Rambo guns, don’t make a profit in the buyback.

      So. These are unlikely to affect poll numbers.

      You may be right in that the endless, “lying in unison” on Nationals behalf will drop Labour/Greens numbers again. And NZF without Winston is gone.

      • James 19.2.1
        13 April 2019 at 10:24 am

        Time will tell but I predict when the election comes CGT is not going to be a vote winner

        • KJT 19.2.1.1
          13 April 2019 at 10:46 am

          Maybe not. Given the massive volume of well funded lies about it, from the greedy.

          • James 19.2.1.1.1
            13 April 2019 at 10:47 am

            Let’s wait and see how bullshit the buyback is going to be. #speakingoflies

            • KJT 19.2.1.1.1.1
              13 April 2019 at 10:53 am

              Yeah. Let’s see how many Rambo’s are unhappy the Government won’t let them make a profit on their WMD, eh?

              • cleangreen …
                13 April 2019 at 11:29 am

                KJT

                Put James as Rambo # 1 on that list.

                He needs a ‘rapid fire weapon’ to down his prey.

                As he is a lousy shooter as is a blogger.

          • patricia bremner 19.2.1.1.2
            13 April 2019 at 8:11 pm

            The use of the CGT money will be key to how people finally react.

            Further James, they have used the Aussie buyback model for the weapons, to avoid errors. It worked there so should work here, as Aussies by and large are more right wing than Kiws.

  20. Observer Tokoroa 20
    13 April 2019 at 9:58 am

    It is good to read your Comments.

    I am no Guru, But I do feel that Jacinda – who Simon despises – has risen to heights that give only great credit to Her – and to we the people of Aotearoa.

    For our young ones – voice will be raised saying: “I lived in the age of Prime Minister Jacinda, and the whole World loved Her.”

    ” Jacinda helped us get Heating. Jacinda helped us get Housing. Jacinda heleped us get some free education. Jacinda respected all our Whenua. Jacinda respected all our Pakeha.

    Unlike Billy English and John Key (both of whom made themselves Knights of the Realm) Jacinda never rubbished the Youth of New Zealand. Not once!

    I believe the Queen of New Zealand should definitely and deliberately remove the Knighthoods she gave Key and English.

    For those two damned all New Zealand Youth. Treasonous ! The Queen should Speak and Act. After all, She is Elizabeth 11. Betty Windsor. She would not wish her children to be dumped on as Rubbish.

    National never stood up for their own kids. Too busy grubbing money off the Chinese.

    Am I right or wrong ?

    • Incognito 20.1
      13 April 2019 at 10:02 am

      I am no Guru, But I do feel that Jacinda – who Simon despises – has risen to heights that give only great credit to Her – and to we the people of Aotearoa. [my bolds]

      You are projecting.

    • James 20.2
      13 April 2019 at 10:26 am

      “Jacinda helped us get housing”

      You are right – you are not a guru.

      You may missed the entire prize clusterfuck that is kiwibuild.

      While Jacinda has handled the Christchurch massacre very well – her other programs have been a disaster.

      • Incognito 20.2.1
        13 April 2019 at 10:33 am

        While Jacinda has handled the Christchurch massacre very well – her other programs have been a disaster.

        The massacre was one of her “programs”!? What are you saying, James? You do know that her reaction was not scripted at all, don’t you?

      • KJT 20.2.2
        13 April 2019 at 10:42 am

        A net thousands of houses already, ahead of National is hardly a disaster.

        It takes time to turn around nine years of disastrous vandalism.

        It is people like you who slow down, or prevent, solving problems

      • Skunk Weed 20.2.3
        13 April 2019 at 10:43 am

        Problem is with Kiwibuild it is difficult to build reasonably priced homes in NZ because land prices have been pushed so high by National’s Mass Immigration Plan and the price of building materials has gone through the roof ?

      • Ankerrawshark 20.2.4
        13 April 2019 at 11:30 am

        James “her other programs have been a disaster”. Minority viewpoint isn’t noted.

      • patricia bremner 20.2.5
        13 April 2019 at 8:22 pm

        James, Social housing continues, in spite of Kiwi build… You are lying by omission.

        • James 20.2.5.1
          14 April 2019 at 9:19 am

          No I’m not. They had a program kiwibuild with all sorts of promises. It’s an unmitigated failure.

          It stood along as a program. Trying to add bit to make it look less shit is bullshit spin.

    • cleangreen 20.3
      13 April 2019 at 11:30 am

      I hope you are right Observer Tokoroa.

  21. Observer Tokoroa 21
    13 April 2019 at 10:22 am

    Hi Incognito

    Love your leanings on the Bold.

    You are announcing that you are un – projecting.

    I take it that your children are Rubbish – according to John Key, Billy English and National withdrawal.

    • James 21.1
      13 April 2019 at 10:28 am

      “I take it that your children are Rubbish – according to John Key, Billy English and National withdrawal”

      Bringing others children into it (if they even have them) is uncalled for.

    • Incognito 21.2
      13 April 2019 at 10:29 am

      I’m projecting my observation of your claim that Simon Bridges “despises” Jacinda Ardern.

  22. Ad 22
    13 April 2019 at 10:26 am

    An 8-point gap at this point is amazingly good for National.

    Cataclysmic leader, no policy, media suck-hole to the Prime Minister.

    At 41% I would be pretty chuffed.

    • Skunk Weed 22.1
      13 April 2019 at 10:45 am

      I would have thought National would be happy at 41% with there poor performance over the past 18 months.

      • cleangreen 22.1.1
        13 April 2019 at 11:39 am

        Skunk weed

        “Inter-National” were hoping for a magic fall in labour polling after the ‘week of negative shit they threw at Labour and NZF’ MP’s.

        But alas; – it didn’t shine for them; – boo hoo!!!.

    • Muttonbird 22.2
      13 April 2019 at 5:07 pm

      Rubbish. This was the point at which the CGT was going to sink this government and kick the Silly Little Girl out back into the kitchen where she belongs.

      And she just widens the gap.

  23. Sanctuary 23
    13 April 2019 at 6:18 pm

    The thing is politically Christchurch stuffed the narrative from the right.

    The whole theme of a “silly little girl” being bossed around by Winston is a wonky accidental government vanished, to be replaced with exactly the opposite narrative – a stellar leader who has grown into the role, with an accidental opponent whose authority is diminishing before our eyes leading a party with zero relevance.

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