The Price Isn’t Yet Right To Invade Ukraine

Written By: advantage - Date published: 12:32 pm, January 26th, 2022 - 59 comments
Categories: energy, International, Russia, uncategorized - Tags:

The entity making the most money out of threatening the Ukraine is the Russian Federation government itself. Follow the money.

The Russian Federation owns Gazprom, Gazprom is the leading supplier of gas to the whole of Europe. Europe has had the Russian threat to the Ukraine the whole of winter (indeed since 2014), gas prices have soared. Gazpom and the Russian state are doing well thank you.

Russia as a petro-state needs to make as much money out of its remaining gas reserves as possible. To whom else will Germany turn when it shuts down all its nuclear and coal plants? NordStream, owned by Gazprom. And about a third of Russian gas supplies route through the Ukraine.

Gazprom’s share in the global and Russian gas reserves amounts to 16% and 71% respectively.

So this is yet another case of Russia leveraging energy exports, making it much less likely that Russia would launch a full invasion and much more likely Russia will just prolong the threat and sustain the super-high prices.

And in the reverse: if Russia needs to act to NATO armament moves, Gazprom needs only shut down or limit the gas, and just cream it as they scream from the cold. The 2020 shortages would pale quickly. Nothing the United States or any NATO member could do about it either.

Much has been made of the moral basis for action by NATO; that it is framed as a struggle between rival authoritarian, state-controlled systems and democratic ones; something as high-minded as a grand axis of evil between Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and North Korean worlds, quite antithetical to Western Enlightenment values and all those virtuous NATO members (ahem). I’ve even seen Churchill and Thomas Jefferson quoted.

What we saw in Kazakhstan a few weeks ago is pretty simple: protect the petro producers, ensure the leading oligarchical families get what they need to sustain that, and for God’s sake keep it flowing. Extend the era of petro-money as hard and as long as possible.

Europe needs to focus less on building its own standing army, less on expanding NATO, and a whole lot more on building total energy dependence from petroleum and gas. Or Russia will do this again.

That is also the approach that in the short and long run will do the least damage and most good for the world.

Too late for now however. But there’s less need to invade the Ukraine when NATO pays Putin through the gas bill every day.

59 comments on “The Price Isn’t Yet Right To Invade Ukraine ”

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Dennis Frank 1

26 January 2022 at 1:33 pm

Yeah that all makes sense to me. Maximising regional leverage.

In an era in which states use their interdependence against one another, power is no longer defined by control of land or oceans, or even the normative influence of “soft power”. It is now defined by control over flows of people, goods, money, and data, and via the connections they establish. As states compete to control such connections and the dependencies they create, these flows cut across overlapping spheres of influence – shaping the new map of geopolitical power. Only those who see this map clearly will be able to control the modern world.

The purpose of this atlas is to describe the key terrains of power. The European Council on Foreign Relations commissioned seven essays that explore these seven terrains: economics, technology, climate, people, military, health, and culture. By studying each of the terrains closely, one can see how various states are already trying to seize what they view as the high ground, as well as what this means for the future of conflict and relative power. https://ecfr.eu/special/power-atlas/#introduction

Russia has become the ‘disruptor in chief’. In the last few years, its foreign policy has shaped the behaviour of its neighbours and other powers through tactics including gas cut-offs, sanctions, the expulsion of workers, cyber-attacks, disinformation and propaganda campaigns, and attempts to gridlock Western-led international organisations ranging from the UN Security Council to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.

In parallel, the country has worked to establish new organisations to extend its power, such as the BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and the Eurasian Economic Union. But because Russia has not done enough to strengthen and diversify its economy – which relies overwhelmingly on hydrocarbon exports – its share of the global economy has declined. This will limit its ability to project power over time. https://ecfr.eu/about/
Macro 2

26 January 2022 at 1:42 pm

Hmmm and here was I thinking that actually Putie was after my bickies!

Made in Ukraine and packed in Hamilton NZ.
Jenny how to get there 3

26 January 2022 at 1:43 pm

Follow the money

"Politics is the most concentrated expression of economics" Lenin

Germany wants cheap energy.

Russia wants to sell it to them.

The US does not want Germany to become reliant on Russian gas, which would weaken US economic and political influence in Europe.

Meantime the meteor is approaching.

In the age of climate change fighting over a fossil fuel, approaches the stupidity of bald men fighting over a comb.
joe90 4

26 January 2022 at 2:23 pm

Shit kicks off and Poots is gonna go for the goolies.

https://twitter.com/MacSDavid/status/1484882882808233986

An undersea fiberoptic cable located between mainland Norway and the Svalbard archipelago in the Arctic Ocean has been put out of action in a still-mysterious incident. The outage on the subsea communications cable — the furthest north of its kind anywhere in the world — follows an incident last year in which different cables linking an undersea surveillance network off the Norwegian coast were severed, a story that we covered in detail at the time.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43828/undersea-cable-connecting-norway-with-arctic-satellite-station-has-been-mysteriously-severed
McFlock 5

26 January 2022 at 2:29 pm

Fair assessment. Money is always a motive.
- Blazer 5.1
  
  26 January 2022 at 2:36 pm
  
  Follow the money usually works,but on this occasion Ad is wrong.
  
  Gazprom has contracts with european energy companies.
  
  It is the energy companies who hydraulic the prices as resellers.
  - Ad 5.1.1
    
    26 January 2022 at 3:49 pm
    
    In late December the Ukrainian head of the state gas transmission operator said Gazprom had reduced daily gas transit across Ukrainian territory to 87.7 million cubic metres (mcm) from 109 mcm:
    
    "The reduction in gas supplies to the European Union at a time when prices reached $2,000 suggests that these are not economic decisions but purely political ones, aimed at increasing pressure on the EU to launch Nord Stream 2 on terms of the Russian Federation."
    
    Putin himself of course said the same as what I'm saying and blamed EU policy for not approving Nordstream 2 fast enough:
    
    "The additional gas supplies on the European gas market would surely reduce the price on an exchange, on the spot (market)," Putin was quoted as saying by news agency RIA at a joint meeting of the State Council and a council on science and education."
    
    Putin says Europe only has itself to blame for surging gas prices | Reuters
    
    The politics of this is energy politics, not NATO.
    - Blazer 5.1.1.1
      
      26 January 2022 at 4:45 pm
      
      Last year Russia increased gas supply by 15% …Putin explains the correlation between gas and international oil prices…and how the market works with contracts and..resellers..4 mins in.
      
      https://youtu.be/nT3TYZ8iTZ0
      - Ad 5.1.1.1.1
        
        26 January 2022 at 5:40 pm
        
        Putin telling his audience that it is merely the market setting prices is unbelievably trite. Gazprom is the dominant supplier. It's best not to take the words of that kind of politician at face value.
        
        The gas supply crisis that hit Europe due to Gazprom limiting gas supplies is well attested and gripped European economies for months last year and is continuing – forcing the shutdown of factories, the collapse of major energy suppliers and one of the fastest rises on record for home energy bills . With that occurring, Gazprom has enjoyed its highest ever profits.
        
        The company reported a record net income of 582bn rubles (£5.86bn) from July to September compared with a net loss a year ago, and the company expects “even more impressive results in the fourth quarter”.
        
        Blazer 5.1.1.1.1.1
        
        26 January 2022 at 6:15 pm
        
        So buyers relying on the spot price instead of long term contracts are not a factor…and neither are oil prices (up 60%).
        
        So supply/demand, push/pull does not apply to Russias gas!
        
        Nordstream 2 is still awaiting certification…Germany want it…the U.S hates it.
francesca 6

26 January 2022 at 3:05 pm

contrast and compare

"Russia, under international law, can take military exercises in international waters, but the fact they are choosing to do it on the west borders of the EU, off the Irish coast, is something that is in our view not welcome and not wanted right now, particularly in the coming weeks."

Over 2,000 forces and 30 ships are taking part in exercise Breeze 2021 in the Black Sea. The Bulgarian-led maritime exercise, which began on 12 July and wraps up today (19 July), involves forces from 14 NATO Allies and partners – Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Georgia, Greece, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and the United States.
- Macro 6.1
  
  26 January 2022 at 3:20 pm
  
  Over 2,000 forces and 30 ships are taking part in exercise Breeze 2021 in the Black Sea.
  
  You have got to be kidding! Suppose each country in the world had 4 Forces – Police Navy, Army, Air – Oh! and the US has an extra one – Space Force! Now there are apparently around 168 nations world wide so (4 x 168) +1 would make 673.. But many wouldn't have any military to speak of – So how come so many different forces all crammed into 30 ships?
  
  Maybe aliens?
  - Gezza 6.1.1
    
    26 January 2022 at 3:48 pm
    
    They obviously meant armed forces personnel, not separate defence forces.
    
    NATO ships are taking part in Exercise Breeze 2021 in the Black Sea. The Bulgarian-led maritime exercise, which began on 11 July and wraps up on 19 July, involves forces from 14 NATO Allies and partners – Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Georgia, Greece, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Kingdom and the United States. Two of four NATO fleets are participating – Standing NATO Maritime Group Two (SNMG2) and Standing NATO Mine Countermeasures Group Two (SNMCMG2).
    
    https://www.natomultimedia.tv/app/asset/654704
    
    Not the first time I’ve seen or heard “forces” used to describe the number of military personnel. The US often refers to moving its forces when it means troops.
    - Macro 6.1.1.1
      
      26 January 2022 at 4:06 pm
      
      Well having spent half my working life in the Forces I must say that I have never heard that usage. "Personnel" yes – but never "forces".
      
      BTW 2000 people in a military exercise is relatively small beer. Compare that to the estimated 100,000 Russian military exercising on the Ukrainian border.
      - Gezza 6.1.1.1.1
        
        26 January 2022 at 4:18 pm
        
        The Americans have their own military shorthand phrases. It’s not unusual for them to announce they are pulling their forces out of somewhere or sending forces to somewhere. They generally mean troops & warfighting equipment.
        
        BTW 2000 people in a military exercise is relatively small beer
        
        It’s teeny. A US Nimitz class supercarrier alone has around 6,000 personnel on board.
        
        Macro 6.1.1.1.1.1
        
        26 January 2022 at 4:43 pm
        
        It’s teeny. A US Nimitz class supercarrier alone has around 6,000 personnel on board.
        
        Yes being a retired Naval Officer I'm well aware of the capabilities of the USN and other forces. Those supercarriers are immense.
        
        Gezza …
        
        26 January 2022 at 5:06 pm
        
        14 countries with 30 ships and 2,065 personnel from Albania, Belgium, Great Britain, Georgia, Greece, Spain, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Romania, USA, Turkey, and Ukraine took part in the exercise.
        
        https://mc.nato.int/media-centre/news/2021/nato-ships-exercised-in-exercise-breeze-in-the-black-sea
        
        Apparently it followed by only 2 days Exercise Sea Breeze 21, a 32-Nation, 5,000 persinnel US & Ukranian co-hosted War Games exercise in the Black Sea that included NATO & non-NATO countries.
        
        Participating Sea Breeze 21 nations included Albania, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, France, Georgia, Greece, Israel, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Morocco, Norway, Pakistan, Poland, Romania, Senegal, Spain, South Korea, Sweden, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom and the United States.
        
        https://seapowermagazine.org/exercise-sea-breeze-2021-comes-to-a-close-in-black-sea/
  - francesca 6.1.2
    
    26 January 2022 at 5:39 pm
    
    Marco says "You have got to be kidding!"
    
    Yeah, I would say that too
    
    Take it up with Nato
    
    It's a direct quote
    
    https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_185879.htm
- joe90 6.2
  
  26 January 2022 at 3:30 pm
  
  Bulgaria and invited friends will conduct their exercises off the Bulgarian coast and in proximity to Bulgarian Black Sea territorial waters. Russia will be exercising nearly 2000 kilometres from their territorial waters off the coast and in proximity to whose territorial waters?
  - Blazer 6.2.1
    
    26 January 2022 at 3:47 pm
    
    I believe the Black Sea is quite close to Russia and quite a way from the U.K and the Netherlands.'
    
    'Additionally, ‘CSG21’ will participate in NATO exercises such as Exercise Steadfast Defender, and provide support to NATO Operation Sea Guardian and maritime security operations in the Black Sea.'
    - Gezza 6.2.1.1
      
      26 January 2022 at 4:11 pm
      
      The Black Sea is bordered by 2 NATO countries – Bulgaria and Romania (as well as Russia, Georgia, Moldova, Turkey and Ukraine). So they can argue it’s within the NATO defence zone.
      
      It does make Russian complaints they’re constantly provoked by potential adversaries valid though.
    - lprent 6.2.1.2
      
      26 January 2022 at 5:30 pm
      
      Turkey, is a NATO member with a significant economic and military interest in the Black Sea has a enormous interest in naval defence issues in the Black Sea. They control both sides of the only sea exit from the Black Sea.
      
      NATO is a defence alliance with participating members committed to repelling aggression against any member state with all required force.
      
      In an event of naval warfare involving non-NATO states (say Russia as the only non-participating Black Sea nation in that exercise) attacking NATO members, Russia want to get their warm water navy out of the Black Sea into the Med. The only way that they could do that outside of diplomatic means is to fight their way through Turkish waters.
      
      So the whole of NATO naval forces often do exercises in the Black Sea, usually with other interested NATO members and nations bordering the Black Sea. Just as they do in the Baltic and North Seas where the same military conditions apply.
      
      It isn't the geographical distance from NATO members that is the criterion for where NATO exercises happen, it is to know how to interdict actions against NATO members in potential conflict zones.
      
      It isn’t provocative – it is just military common sense.
      - francesca 6.2.1.2.1
        
        26 January 2022 at 5:54 pm
        
        Talking about provocation
        
        It's difficult to see this in any other way.
        
        https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/30/putin-us-britain-black-sea-497162
        
        lprent 6.2.1.2.1.1
        
        26 January 2022 at 10:27 pm
        
        Sigh. Read the piece.
        
        The episode was the latest to raise tensions between Russia and the West since Russia's annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014, a move not recognized by most countries but one that gives it access to a long Black Sea coast.
        
        Merely thieving by military force a chunk of territory from a neighbour without the permission of the country does not give a de facto right to claim that it changes international law.
        
        Britain has insisted the Defender was making a routine journey through an internationally recognized travel lane and remained in Ukrainian waters. The U.K., like most of the world, recognizes Crimea as part of Ukraine despite the peninsula’s annexation by Russia.
        
        Any destabilisation was done by Russia in their unlawful act of annexation in 2014. Which is why the most of Russia's non-dictatorial neighbours tend to view them like this..
        
        https://twitter.com/Ukraine/status/1468206078940823554
        
        francesca …
        
        27 January 2022 at 7:50 am
        
        Sigh
        
        Whereas when Russia sails through international waters like the English channel , the alarm! the outcry!
        
        When Russia conducts exercises in legitimate international waters, the jingoistic clamour , the threats of very serious sanctions.
        
        Yet when British warships manoeuvre in a clearly contentious and sensitive zone very close to Crimea it's "routine"
        
        Of course it was provocative .Quoting a loyal mouthpiece of the British establishment doesn't explain anything
        
        Read Richard Sakwa, his academic career has been been immersed in this subject
        
        lprent …
        
        27 January 2022 at 10:42 am
        
        I didn't even remark on the Russian exercise south of Ireland.
        
        I just pointed out the misconception that some people obviously have that NATO has no business doing routine operations under international law in the Black Sea just because a nation local to it has indulged in a some unlawful thievery.
        
        Or that other evident misconception NATO doesn't have compelling strategic interests in the Black Sea when one of their long-time full members borders far more of the coast than Russia does.
        
        Noticeably you were so puerile, that you haven't addressed either of those in your reply. Instead you just continued on a silly 'poor Russia' line. Rather boring and completely silly.
        
        There is no provocation. That has been a pretty routine manoeuvre for NATO vessels since the 1950s, using established international procedures. The only provocation was Putin suggesting that the Russian navy might fire on a NATO vessel.
        
        Blazer …
        
        27 January 2022 at 11:05 am
        
        'The Black Sea basin covers an area of approximately 2 million square kilometers and drains 25 countries. The Black Sea has a coastline of approximately 5,800 kilometers, including the Sea of Azov. Russia has the longest coastline on the sea (2,300 km), followed by Turkey (1,329 km) '
        
        Black Sea – WorldAtlas
        
        francesca …
        
        27 January 2022 at 11:30 am
        
        A lot of changes have happened since the 50's for christ sake
        
        Anybody that can't accept the volatility of the area around Crimea as a reality starts with a handicap
        
        And here we go with the insults again ,boring, silly, puerile, completely silly , ..sigh …whinge whinge.Lay off the ad hominem
        
        Crimea was stolen?
        
        A bit like a cuckolded husband whinging that someone stole his wife
        
        Crimea was keen to return to Russia
        
        And remains so
        
        https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/18/six-years-20-billion-russian-investment-later-crimeans-are-happy-with-russian-annexation/
        
        Two letters in The Guardian at the time put the matter succinctly
        
        https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/24/britains-stage-managed-standoff-in-the-black-sea
      - Gezza 6.2.1.2.2
        
        26 January 2022 at 7:08 pm
        
        Embarrassing. Totally forgot that Turkey’s in NATO. Mixed up their being in NATO with their not being in the EU. Should’ve remembered Erdogan’s stoush with Trump over Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system that saw them kicked out of the F-35 programme.
        
        lprent 6.2.1.2.2.1
        
        27 January 2022 at 10:43 am
        
        🙂
        
        Poission 6.2.1.2.2.2
        
        27 January 2022 at 11:27 am
        
        Turkeys should not wish for xmas ,especially when Russia has friends in low places.
        
        https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1485561680113373186?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1485561680113373186%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpublish.twitter.com%2F%3Fquery%3Dhttps3A2F2Ftwitter.com2FJavierBlas2Fstatus2F1485561680113373186widget%3DTweet
        
        This interplay would be more connected with the Vienna talks (sans US) it was however during a significant cold storm.
Stuart Munro 7

26 January 2022 at 5:26 pm

Putin is a complicated fellow, and I fancy money alone will not satisfy him.

There are a lot of folk expecting war on his side, and disappointing them may fatally injure his already flagging popularity.

Europe has woken up to the threat too. Putin's flimflam isn't going to fly so well internationally for a good long while. Extracting himself, if he manages it, will be quite a trick.
- pat 7.1
  
  26 January 2022 at 5:30 pm
  
  Putin’s world dosnt require anything of him….dont make the mistake of thinking your world is his.
- francesca 7.2
  
  26 January 2022 at 6:01 pm
  
  Zelenskiy's ratings, Bojo's and Bidens are all falling way below that of Putin
  
  Zelenskiy at about 23%
  
  Putin round about 60%,
  
  I suspect they need the sabre rattling more than Putin does
  - Stuart Munro 7.2.1
    
    26 January 2022 at 6:10 pm
    
    Putin's ratings follow a different path to those of western politicians.
    
    A despot has no friends – only faithful subordinates and bitter enemies. The trick is telling them apart.
    
    You can see something of the pattern in Belarus – Lugashenko evidently received 80% of the vote, which would have made him more popular than Jacinda – but he was somehow the object of mass street protests. A bit amateurish really. The first rule of made up percentages is not to use round numbers – they're a dead giveaway.
    - francesca 7.2.1.1
      
      26 January 2022 at 9:50 pm
      
      Not really
      
      At it's peak Putin's ratings were 88%
      
      They've dropped to 60 .Are you saying that Putin is now not able to manipulate the ratings?
      
      The contortions Putinophobes go through to keep a consistent story!
      - Stuart Munro 7.2.1.1.1
        
        26 January 2022 at 11:19 pm
        
        that Putin is now not able to manipulate the ratings?
        
        Even in despotic regimes, the powers of the chief malefactor fluctuate according to how life is for the general populace. Russians have not prospered under his rule, and pretending otherwise would have further eroded his domestic support.
        
        But you know this. The contortions Putin dupes put themselves through to avoid facing that fact that in spite of professing Left leanings, they are in fact supporting a murderous fascist genocide.
        
        Blazer 7.2.1.1.1.1
        
        27 January 2022 at 12:10 pm
        
        After the disintegration of the USSR,Putin has brought stability and respect to…Russia.
        
        The economy and living standards have improved.
        
        Russia's economy under President Putin in charts (cnbc.com)
        
        Life in Vladimir Putin's Russia explained in 10 charts – BBC News
    - Blazer 7.2.1.2
      
      27 January 2022 at 8:50 pm
      
      Interesting Stuart…'A despot has no friends – '
      
      Reminds me of Kissinger…'America has no friends or enemies,just interests'
      
      and….'to be an enemy of America is…dangerous…to be a friend..is fatal'!
      - Stuart Munro 7.2.1.2.1
        
        27 January 2022 at 9:23 pm
        
        Kissinger is a fanboi of Metternich – nothing good was ever going to come of him.
        
        The economy and living standards have improved.
        
        I'm not sure that's very different from the 'Hitler made the trains run on time' argument. Putin stifled Russia's nascent democracy and put it back on the path to isolation, a negative nationalism, and unparalleled corruption. The real issue is that you have to put that in context of soviet era incomes and economy. The last Russian ship I worked on (early 90s) had a crew of 80. I was making more money than all of them put together, and I was only on about $30k. It didn't take much to make things better than what went before, and by no means all of the improvement is down to Putin.
  - lprent 7.2.2
    
    26 January 2022 at 10:33 pm
    
    It probably helps if you can easily toss pollsters into jail on spurious charges or prevent them entering the country to poll.
    
    Plus of course being able to close any media and jail journalists that are critical of you. It means that you can control the debate – something like what happens here if you deal with any of the NZME empire.
    
    Not to mention the obvious caution that people being polled will tend to show under the same threat.
    - francesca 7.2.2.1
      
      27 January 2022 at 7:40 am
      
      I'm very surprised that the pollsters of Levada haven't been thrown into jail for reporting such a drop in approval.The West was crowing when Putin's approval rates dropped over raising the pension eligibility age.They believed the polls then!!
      
      Disbelieve when the polls are up, believe when they're down .Who's the dupe?
Subliminal 8

26 January 2022 at 10:43 pm

It's kind of interesting really. Nato/EU/US stage a coup in the Ukraine. The Russia hating idiots they install as the government attempt a blood bath against ethnic Russians in the East. Russia steps in and forces the Minsk agreement as well as taking back control of the Crimean Peninsula. The Nato/EU/US blob scream about and implement sanctions. Biden calls their leader a murderer. But just like Aussie with China, for some reason, they think Russia should increase supply of gas above and beyond what they have contracted to supply on long term agreements. Gazprom says they will even make new long term agreements. But no, the EU is arrogant enough to believe that even given their support of ardent Russia haters in Ukraine they should be free to buy on the spot market and Russia should supply?? The question must be asked: who is sanctioning who? It's no wonder Lavrov can barely keep the grin off his face every time he sees Blinken. And the lifting of sanctions is a simple matter too. Stop arming the Ukraine and support international law by enforcing the Minsk agreememts. Everything will follow from there.
- Scud 8.1
  
  27 January 2022 at 1:04 am
  
  Before you go bumping your glum’s at the Minsk Agreement, you need to read up on these two agreements that Ukraine signed when it gave on its Nukes after the Cold War and which Russia also signed as well. That Russia will also respect Ukraine’s borders & it’s right to self determination to make its own decisions.
  
  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisbon_Protocol
  
  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum
  - aj 8.1.1
    
    27 January 2022 at 10:38 am
    
    IMO Lavrov is a more important figure in Russian foreign policy that Putin. A very intelligent man with more charisma than Putin.
    
    The political chess team they present as a pair is pretty formidable
    - Scud 8.1.1.1
      
      27 January 2022 at 1:55 pm
      
      When you throw in their love of Chess & Maskirovka (Russian Military Deception), Vlad & Lavro have got the West dancing to Swan Lake.
      
      My gut feeling Vlad will move on Ukraine, but not this yr as his window to mount the necessary Operation is closing very fast if wants to avoid clashing with Xi’s Winter Olympic Games.
      
      But it will happen one day, probably when everyone is sick & tired of the West calling out the Ukraine is about to be invaded. Just like the boy, who Wolf to many times which fits in with the Principles of Maskirovka. Which is worth reading & along the Chinese PLA Modern Interpretation of Sun Tsu.
tsmithfield 9

27 January 2022 at 7:16 am

Nice article Advantage. Not much to disagree with.

I understand there is a reasonably small window for an invasion due to the fact the ground is only frozen for so long, and it is difficult to mount an invasion when the ground gets slushy.

Also, the Ukraine won't be a push over for the Russians due to them being equipped with a lot of American weaponry now. So, will be interesting to see if Putin is prepared to pull the trigger on this.
- Blazer 9.1
  
  27 January 2022 at 2:10 pm
  
  Would most certainly be a pushover.
  
  Large % of Ukrainians have Russian sympathies and the Ukraine is not a big economic success story.
  - Scud 9.1.1
    
    28 January 2022 at 12:13 am
    
    Ukraine has plenty of time to plan it’s Defensive Lines to fall back on (there are plenty of Rivers/ River Crossings, Rolling Country that can seriously f**k attacking Army Groups up ie the world’s biggest Tank Battle happened in 1943 in the Kursk Area in Ukraine & before that Manstein’s Winter Defensive Battles which concluded with one the most outstanding Counter Attacks in Modern Military History which is still taught today at all levels of Command) . It’s one thing for the Russian Army to break into the Ukraine Line but it’s a completely different story if Russia can maintain momentum when it breaks out of the 1st initial Defensive Line and keep sustaining to whatever the Vlad’s endstate is. If Russia starts losing momentum, Ukraine will have the upper hand & this would allow NATO/ the West to mobilise resources & or political means against Russia.
    
    Russian will attack in the Winter & defend in the Summer in order to negate the technology deficit that Russia has with certain aspects of the Russian Military still has with a Peer vs Peer Conflict.
    
    Also the Younger generation of Ukraine ie the X, Y & Z outnumbered the older Soviet Ukrainian Generation & if Vlad doesn’t move soon. Then Vlad is going face a very hostile environment and the clock is ticking as he has about 5-10yrs because there will no left who remembers life under Soviet USSR.
    
    At the moment Vlad ,holds all the cards. But if he attacks & it stalls he’s toast & if he’s successful there will a lot of losers from the US, to Western Democracies incl little old NZ & in the short to medium term Vlad will be the winner but ultimately it’s China who will be the real winner out of this unfortunate shit sandwich.
    - Blazer 9.1.1.1
      
      28 January 2022 at 7:48 am
      
      You dismissing Russian air power altogether.
      
      FWIW I don't think Russia is interested in invading Ukraine at…all.
      - Ad 9.1.1.1.1
        
        28 January 2022 at 11:35 am
        
        It already did in 2014, and the eastern Donbass war has only decreased but never stopped.
        
        Looks remarkably like they've been interested for 6 years.
      - Scud 9.1.1.1.2
        
        28 January 2022 at 3:52 pm
        
        The much vaunted Russian Tactical Airforce, has got a few problems since the start of the Ukraine Conflict.
        
        The Ukraine is Airforce had barely any serviceable Aircraft & what Aircraft they had the operationally suffered from lack of Pilots training & sustainment issues. Thence the Russian Tactical Airforce was able to support its Ground & Naval forces at the start of Ukrainian Conflict, until the very limited Ukrainian Ground Base Air Defence Units got their act together as it overcome its morale & sustainment issues when it suddenly retired its BUK SAM’s some yrs early after a couple very nasty accidents involving Civilian Aircraft.
        
        But now it’s a different story, The Ukrainian Airforce is a lot better now, with increasing serviceability rates, Pilot training hrs are almost on par with its Western/ NATO counterparts and more importantly is its now sustainable.
        
        Where is Russia’s Tactical Airforce is now got some big issues, since the of the Ukrainian Conflict:
        
        1, Pilots are still only achieving about a 40-50% less Training than its Western/ NATO Counterparts vs the Russian Tactical Airforce Mandated Task and this is also reflected at training of the maintainers as well. Note: we have been to access those countries who fly Russia Aircraft, who reported that it’s getting hard to get Russian Maintenance maintainers to provide the necessary Training or for them to send its SNCO’s & Engineering Officers to Russia to provide the necessary Train the Trainer Courses.
        
        2, There appears to be a sustainment issues across the Russian Tactical Airforce atm, it appears that only about a 1/4 to 1/3 of the Russian Tactical Airforce is currently available for Operations & more importantly ongoing training. Again this data is reflected by those countries who use Russia Aircraft, who are experiencing similar sustainment problems compared to the Western Aircraft they also operate which are
        achieving 70-80% serviceability rates.
        
        3, The Russian Tactical Airforce, has far less exposure to Smart Weapons/ PGM’s and in fact China is well ahead of the Russians in this. What Smart Weapons that Russia have using in a number of Conflicts its currently involved with, 90% of all Smart Weapons/ PGM’s have failed. But in saying that all of it’s Dumb Weapons dropped have achieved a 90% success rate & there is still a concern that it’s still using Conventional Anti Area Denial Weapons. In plan English Cluster & Anti Personal Munitions.
        
        Blazer 9.1.1.1.2.1
        
        28 January 2022 at 4:48 pm
        
        You are very knowledgeable about this topic.
        
        Scud …
        
        28 January 2022 at 8:52 pm
        
        No worries, I try to be helpful on most things in regards to Military Affairs here on The Standard as it’s not everyone cuppa tea as lefties like me are a rare bred within the Left Wing Spectrum.
        
        Plus it keeps me busy, by going back over what’s left of my notes & diaries that have survived since my laptop crashed & burned pardon the pun.
        
        Oh, here’s a H/T for you keep an eye out for this wee beastie the S400 & it’s latest variant the S500. When the S400 deployed to Syria under Russian Control on what ended up to be my final trip to the Sandpit when I finally lost my marbles etc.
        
        This Ground Base Air Defence System (GBADS) was actually Targeting our Air to Air Tankers, Airborne Early Warning & other such type as Air Transport Aircraft. Which put the willies up among the Coalition Airforces within the Sandpit including a few other Air Assets that I won’t mention incl one that has been around for a few decades.
        
        https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-400_missile_system
Stuart Munro 10

27 January 2022 at 8:15 pm

Robert Patman has a few words on the subject: What Putin really fears about Ukraine | Stuff.co.nz
joe90 11

27 January 2022 at 8:36 pm

Blog commenter's Q&A on Ukraine.

https://www.balloon-juice.com/2022/01/25/ukraine-starter-kit-courtesy-of-gin-tonic/
Blazer 12

27 January 2022 at 9:03 pm

the lovely Palki on U.S sanctions…looks like Biden is running out of…gas.

https://youtu.be/8-4BoIOxNTc
Stuart Munro 13

27 January 2022 at 9:27 pm

I don't want to put words in Shirvan's mouth, but recent events have him meditating on a Russian collapse: What would happen if Russia collapsed? – YouTube
Ad 14

28 January 2022 at 11:33 am

A pertinent question from Al Jazeera examined here:

Can Europe be weaned off Russian gas?

Can Europe be weaned off Russian gas? | Inside Story – YouTube