The recession, graphically

Written By: - Date published: 12:22 pm, December 23rd, 2008 - 42 comments
Categories: economy, national/act government - Tags:

OK, one last graph for the year.

The latest GDP data isn’t pretty, a 0.4% contraction of the economy in the September quarter. It’s the third quarter of contraction in a row driven by the drought, oil prices, and the credit crunch. The ongoing international financial turmoil means we are likely to continue in recession well into next year. Still waiting on that plan to turn things round. Guess the Nats are too busy approving the killing of more endangered sea lions.

Now, I know the thread off this is going to be one long blame game. So, here’s something to ponder – GDP per capita from 1987 to now.

gdp

all-threeGives some perspective. While the economy is contracting it has been pretty shallow, especially compared to the 90s recessions. We’re still better off on average than in 2006.

But remember, too, that it’s not just the size of the pie, it’s how it is cut up. As we’ve seen, workers get a smaller slice under National’s anti-worker policies.

With a continuing recession, rising unemployment, and an anti-worker government attacking wages, she’s looking like a tough year ahead for ordinary Kiwis.

Not sure that John Key giving himself a hundred dollar a week tax cut is going to help much, either.

[for a fuller explanation of the graph to the left, see this post. Bascially, circle is the size of the economy in 1991, 2000, and 2008, and the red sector is the portion of GDP going to workers]

42 comments on “The recession, graphically ”

  1. Tane 1

    Dude, link’s broken.

  2. ieuan 2

    Geez you started so well with a big picture look at growth (man things must have been grim in 1991-1993) and even added a bit of humour with the ‘seal’ thing but you can’t stop yourself can you?

    ‘An anti-worker government attacking wages’, ‘giving himself a hundred dollar a week tax cut’ if the Nats are so horrible how did they get 45% of the vote?

  3. Daveski 3

    Naturally, no reference to the respective economic conditions faced by the respective governments. Still, nice graph 🙂

    From a Labour perspective, it was a good election to lose.

  4. Chess Player 4

    What is the pie chart showing, exactly? There is no legend.

  5. Tane 5

    It’s workers’ share of the economy, taken from an earlier post.

  6. Santi 6

    A hospital pass from socialist Labour. The toxic duo of Clark & Cullen will be remembered as the undertakers of the NZ economy.

    [lprent: That is a canned line worthy of a troll. Please desist and write something worth reading]

  7. RedLogix 7

    CP:

    The pie graph is based on a well established economic measure known as the “percentage of GDP received as employee renumeration”, ie wages and salary. It’s actually fairly easy to measure and most countries have good records going back many decades. It’s another comparison with Australia we won’t hear from John Key anytime soon either, because theirs is about 10% higher than ours.

  8. the sprout 8

    “Still waiting on that plan to turn things round. Guess the Nats are too busy”

    Well so far they’ve made it easier for people to get fired.

  9. vto 9

    I think my brain has finally sputtered to a halt. Can’t think of anything to say except Merry Christmas and Happy New year!

    [lprent: I know the feeling. Oh well I get a bit of a break before starting the next job in Jan]

  10. Ag 10

    You think the recession will end next year?

    That’s hopeful. I don’t think things will ever be quite the same.

  11. Joshua 11

    Wait till the next recession, caused by peak oil, happens. Then we’ll be worried. The current one will fix itself as soon as all the excess of the past few years has been burned off.

  12. Janet 12

    Love your graphs, Steve. I never realised complex concepts could be captured and described so satisfyingly visually.

  13. Ari 13

    From a Labour perspective, it was a good election to lose.

    And from New Zealand’s perspective, it was a bad election for them to lose. 😛

  14. Tigger 14

    Forget the recession – the sea lion kill quota being raised? How is this the Ministry of Fisheries decision alone? Merry Christmas seals, now die

  15. ieuan: Here’s how National won the election:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtQjOE1BGUs

    The Nats got 45% of the vote because most people who voted for them didn’t really understand what they were voting for. That will be born out as time passes. I may be wrong, of course, but I don’t think so. We’ve een here before. It’s just the some people were too young to remember and other people never knew in the first place.

    Thanks to Crosby / Textor, many voted anti-smacking law and other trivialities without appreciating the full anti-worker scope and power of National’s policies.

  16. Dean 16

    Steve Withers:

    “Thanks to Crosby / Textor, many voted anti-smacking law and other trivialities without appreciating the full anti-worker scope and power of National’s policies.”

    The only problem with your argument is that Labour also employed a ton of PR and advertising companies. I’m guessing that you also agreed with Trotter;s “courageous corruption” line.

    That, together with assuming that everyone that didn’t vote National was completely and accurately informed what they were voting for, leaves me with little conclusion other than you’re a fool if you believe what you’re typing.

  17. Dean 17

    “Wait till the next recession, caused by peak oil, happens. Then we’ll be worried. The current one will fix itself as soon as all the excess of the past few years has been burned off.”

    Didn’t we have peak oil back when it was over 2 dollars a litre earlier in the year?

    Wasn’t peak oil first predicted as happening back in the 70s?

    If there’s one thing I adore about peak oil predictions it’s how many of them there are.

  18. RedLogix 18

    Dean:

    1. No Peak Oil was never predicted to occur in the 70’s. The vast majority of work done over the decades since Hubert’s first predictions have placed the date range somewhere between about 2005 and 2020.

    2. In the last few years with demand at a peaking at over 85m barrels per day we hit the current production ceilings, and the price skyrocketed alarmingly to $149 per barrel. That was our first real taste of peak oil.

    3. That price, combined with the collapse of the financial industry (and exactly how these two events are linked is a complex and interesting story) has cut demand by over 5% in a matter of months, resulting in an equally dramatic fall in price.

    4. The record now tells us how inelastic the oil production and price is. This inelasticity manifests in high price volatilty around the limits of production.

    5. This volatilty in price has long been predicted as one of the critical signs that we are at Peak Oil.

    Dean, you are repeating variation on an old “boy who cried wolf” theme. A wise village elder might have seen that the first several times the boy ran to him crying wolf, that the boy was just young and frightened of being alone and in charge of the flock for the first time in his life.

    But equally a wise man might have the discernment to see the real terror in the boy’s eyes and the genuine distress in his manner on the occasion, when as inevitably it would one day… that the wolf truly did arrive.

  19. Mark 19

    Somebody mentioned Peak Oil when oil has gone from $147 US to $30 a barrel.

    Classic.

    The current problem is cash deficit that NZ is currently running which is caused by Interest free student loans and Kiwisaver, which are two things National is not going to change.

    WFF is another problem as it’s a tax churn problem that doesn’t do anything but takes from one pocket and gives back to another.

    National aren’t going to change that either.

    Basically Labour has got us to where the US government is currently at where entitlements are causing deficits but neither party will change it. Basically middle class welfare.

    This leaves only one solution which is to grow our way out to generate tax revuenue.

    National believes by giving employers the incentive to hire new staff in small business this may help, I expect next year they will look at making more changes to try and boost productivity growth.

    Without growth NZ is screwed and Labour doesn’t have a clue except increase taxes if they were still in government.

  20. Joshua 20

    Mark, did you not read what RedLogix said about peak oil? Price volatility is widely considered to be a clear indicator that a producation limit has been reached, or is near being reached.

    The only prediction about peak oil in the 1970s was Hubbert’s prediction of US production peaking in 1970… which it did, bang on.

  21. Janet 21

    Sad about the endangered sealions. Says so much about the Nats assumption about the supremacy of money making over the sustainability of the natural world. Sorry but the planet won’t survive unless there is a major change in such attitudes.

  22. RedLogix 22

    Technically the problem is that both the price and demand curves for oil both have a steep, almost vertical region. This is the best link I can readily find:

    Oil Price Curves

    The blue line is the supply versus price curve. The vertical section occurs because once production is close to its maximum then no matter what the price, supply remains almost constant.

    The red line is the demand versus price curve. The vertical section occurs because modern society is dependent on a certain minimum supply of oil to function, and will pay almost any price to obtain it.

    Historically the production maximum on the blue curve has always been potentially higher than the minimum demand on the red one, so price of oil (defined by the intersection of the two curves) has remained on the flat portion of both curves and thus relatively low. Moreover even relatively large changes in demand or production has had little price effect for this reason.

    However when the two curves move, either because the minumum required demand rises, or the production maximum falls (or both), then the intersection of the two curves will lie on the much steeper almost vertical section of either (or both) curves. This means that the price will rise, usually quite dramatically.

    Moreover, quite small changes in production or demand will result in very large changes in price.

    As has happened.

  23. RedLogix 23

    Bugger… swap the words red and blue in my post above. Time for bed.

    Take no pills.

  24. Take no pills

    But that would ruin my entire holiday…

  25. ak 25

    Once again, thanks Red, for yet another brilliantly clear and digestible explanation for us laypeople on a complex but vitally important issue (please, never retire – and don’t get lonely out there – no one argues with you, only because they can’t!)

    Sadly, the history of our revered “free marketeers” makes the realisation of Wissner’s fears only too likely: expect any day now a mad rush on oil futures and the consequent dizzying price fluctuations. Add this to an already volatile global scene and 2009 looks like being a doozy.

    But there could be a bright side. Let’s go totally mental for a second and dream of a genuine New World Order: destabilisation of such intensity and global pervasion as to incite mass mobilisations that insist on massive redistribution – a “bailout” of biblical proportions of the starving half of humanity and our polluted planet.

    It’d need a highly-developed global communications network of course. And a highly charismatic leader of the “free world” (with ties to the third) wouldn’t go amiss. An ascendant third-world socialist state would help. And first-world youth with ambition.

    1968 Paris changed the world. Mayhap in 2008, Greece is the word.

  26. Dean 26

    “1. No Peak Oil was never predicted to occur in the 70’s. The vast majority of work done over the decades since Hubert’s first predictions have placed the date range somewhere between about 2005 and 2020.”

    So Hubert was wrong when he predicted between ’65-’70? But of course everyone else since then has agreed on 05-20? Do you honestly believe that?

    “2. In the last few years with demand at a peaking at over 85m barrels per day we hit the current production ceilings, and the price skyrocketed alarmingly to $149 per barrel. That was our first real taste of peak oil.”

    It had nothing to do with OPEC deciding to fix market prices for a while, did it?

    “5. This volatilty in price has long been predicted as one of the critical signs that we are at Peak Oil.”

    Sorry, but there was volatility in the price of oil in the 70s and 80s.

    You’re going to have to try harder if you want to ignore the very history of what you’re talking about, red.

  27. Joshua 27

    Hubbert predicted 65-70 for USA production. US production peaked in 1970 so Hubbert was right.

    OPEC didn’t fix prices recently, they just simply couldn’t pump anymore oil to bring prices down. OPEC was as worried as anyone about $150 oil, as they know that leads to people looking at things other than oil to power their economies.

    Price volatility in the 1970s and early 80s was politically induced by oil embargoes in 1973 and then the Iranian revolution of 1979. What they showed was that non-OPEC oil (in particular US oil) couldn’t raise production to cover these politically created shortfalls. Arab nations had actually tried to screw the US over in 1967 when the 6 day war happened, but at that point US oil production hadn’t peaked, so they just raised their output.

  28. william 28

    Don’t you think all of this old “workers” and “them” shit is a bit tired?

    Did you not get the message at the election?

    Has it dawned on you that the “workers” are actually capable of saving and sharing in the benefits of production…. or are your “workers” not capable of looking after themselves and need to keep relying on someone else for a handshake.

    I suggest that with the holidays upon us now is an excellent time to reflect on what really makes a country and an economy tick….. In my view it’s when we work together while also taking responsibility for ourselves.

  29. RedLogix 29

    In my view it’s when we work together while also taking responsibility for ourselves.

    A fine sentiment William, but sadly the reality of a world in which the richest 2% of the global population own more than half the total household wealth, and the poorest half own barely 1% of the total wealth, would suggest that the notion of “us and them” is not wholly redundant just yet. Or as Tonto put it, “What do you mean by “we”, white man?”

    Has it dawned on you that the “workers’ are actually capable of saving and sharing in the benefits of production

    Given that a full 50% of New Zealanders have an income of less than $28k pa, I’m wondering quite how much saving you think they will be making, or how wonderfully well their stock portfolio is doing just now.

    or are your “workers’ not capable of looking after themselves and need to keep relying on someone else for a handshake.

    It depends on what you mean by “looking after themselves”. NZ does a reasonable job of feeding, clothing and housing most people. although it’s a barely adequate one in our meaner streets.

    The fact remains though that a significant proportion of New Zealanders, and vast numbers globally, only participate in the prosperity of the modern world in a very marginal fashion, languishing on the lowest socio-economic boundaries with very little opportunity to alter their fate.

  30. Mark 30

    This would be the US where drilling or explotation of oil reserves are banned in most parts of the US.

    The US is not producing more oil since the 70s beacuse the government doesn’t allow it.

    If all bans were removed the US would start increasing the production of oil.

    Thr reason there can be wild fluctations in the price of oil is that the demand and supply curves are nearly vertical, making a small changes in demand or supply can cause large price shifts.

    Peak Oil is a moronic theory like global warming that has been proven wrong every time.

    Last year Peak Oil supporters were claiming oil was gong to go over $200 dollars a barrel and never come down.

  31. Yawn. Union-ese it’s so cringe.

    Anti-worker policies? That’s right, workers are silly dips who cannot function like adults without unions and anti-employer, anti-profit, anti-progress and anti-productivity lefty policies (look I can speak anti-union-ese!).

  32. RedLogix 32

    Mark,

    Yes there are untapped reserves of oil in the USA. They are well-known and have been accounted for in all the projections.

    The idea that there is are many vast fields yet to be discovered is just plain silly. Geologists have a very good idea of where oil is likely to be found; they are not paid not waste their employers money by drilling in places where it is not likely to be found. Over the last 80 odd years they have done exploratory work over most of the planet. All the accessible and politically stable places were checked out long ago, and the rate of discovery for these places correspondingly peaked long ago. Globally, the rate of discovery continues to decline, with few places remaining that could yet yield some giant new discovery.

    Currently the world consumes something like 5 barrels of oil for every 1 new one it is discovering. Essentially we are just running down reserves we discovered decades ago, and not replacing them with new ones.

    And even then, another new massive field like Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, would make surprisingly little difference to the ultimate date of Peak Oil, delaying matters by only a few years at most. In reality all of the new fields being brought into production individually amount to only a few weeks or months of total global oil consumption.

    The reason there can be wild fluctations in the price of oil is that the demand and supply curves are nearly vertical, making a small changes in demand or supply can cause large price shifts

    Now have a think why that might be. What would be the cause of those vertical regions?

    Peak Oil is a moronic theory like global warming that has been proven wrong every time.

    If the amount of oil is finite, you have to reach a production peak eventually. If you are suggesting that Peak Oil is wrong, are you asking us to believe that there is an infinite amount of oil to be found?

  33. Janet 33

    The New Scientist had a special issue on ‘The folly of growth: how to stop the economy killing the planet’ on 18 October 2008. It’s probably on line. I recommend that Mark and the others on this thread still living in the 20th century should read it.

  34. RedLogix 34

    Robert B. Reich is Professor of Public Policy at the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley. He has served in three national administrations, most recently as secretary of labor under President Bill Clinton.

    This post from his personal blog absolutely hits the spot.

    Strinkingly this National govt is heading in exactly the opposite direction, straight back into the wilderness of failed “more market, less govt” policies that created the crisis in the US in the first place.

  35. PK 35

    Having worked in oil exploration and production I thought I might correct some of the statements here as several are common misrepresentations.

    There is a long hisory of predictions that we will run out of oil since the early 20th century even. The known oil reserves (as measured in years of consumption at the time of the measurement) actually increased over the 20th century.

    Futhermore, current extraction techniques leave a huge amount of oil in the ground as at the then current prices it wasn’t worth getting out. They don’t “know” where all the oil is. It’s really complicated and expensive to work out exactly where oil is and the best way to get it out of the ground. The estimates of undiscovered oil (obviously rough) range from 60 to 500 years and that is allowing for an annual increase in oil use of 5% p.a.

    However, recently, the rate of discovery actually dropped below the rate of consumption. The received wisdom in this is that via a complex combination of factors including it is now harder to find and extract oil, the price wasn’t worth finding it and political related issues affecting oil exploration.

    There are huge reserves of shale and tar oil but these are quite expensive (and nasty to the environment) to extract.

    What is clear is that oil (and thus energy) will become more expensive and this will affect us as we’ve relied on a cheap energy source. Running out is not the issue (for quite a while yet) because as the price increases it then makes currently unused oil reserves economic. Ditto for alternative energy sources.

    Red – I would have used the term elastic ie if the price varies greatly based on changes in demand or supply and inelastic means high price stability but I get your meaning.

    Considering the price is returning to what was more matching the long term trend this implies recent price movements (upwards and then downwards) are as much speculative and a result of derivatives than due to long term trends or “peak oil”.

    OPEC is struggling to be the price setter on oil as it now produces ~ 40% of the worlds current oil.

    I don’t work for or have any affiliation with any energy companies.

  36. Kerry 36

    Merry Xmas to the lefties……eat crap to the righties!!!!

    Dear John,
    Dont come back from Hawaii!!!!

    Gerry B
    Who ate all the pies who ate all the pies…you fat bastard you fat bastard..Merry xmas!

  37. will 37

    Janet, I think mark got bitten by a yellowjacket and his mind has been poisoned. Peak oil isn’t deniable, even by ideological fools. It’s happening. Period. But these right wingers think the market is the only reality.

    speaking of act supporters, hey madeline, jesus was a trade unionist. I thought you would know that.

    “workers” are going to need any trade union that can help them in this developing recession; else when they are in danger of losing their jobs they are totally screwed. The employers won’t care about their rights unless they are made to.

  38. RedLogix 38

    The known oil reserves (as measured in years of consumption at the time of the measurement) actually increased over the 20th century.

    Well of course. Discoveries of new reserves continue to accumulate, but at a rate less than consumption.

    There is a long hisory of predictions that we will run out of oil since the early 20th century even.

    Complete and utter strawman…no-one has predicted that we will run out of oil anytime soon. Even the most pessimistic estimates of total recoverable oil suggest that we have so far consumed slightly less than half. Plenty of oil remains.

    The real problem is that the half we have consumed was the low hanging high quality fruit that was easy to find and produce. The oil and gas left in the ground is becoming increasingly expensive to extract because it is either remote, in deep water, or lies as you say in complex, awkward structures that are difficult to drill from.

    Almost no-one drills a shallow hole, on dry land that gushes significant oil these days. Almost all big field rely on complex pumping, horizontal drilling and injection techniques. As you must know.

    The estimates of undiscovered oil (obviously rough) range from 60 to 500 years and that is allowing for an annual increase in oil use of 5% p.a.

    Cite please? Because if this is true even your minimum of 60 years of growth at 5% is (60 ^ 1.05 = 73.63) which would imply that in 60 years time oil production would have to be running at (85m barrels per day * 73 = 6.3 billion barrels per day)… or around about 2-3 times the total amount of oil currently known. (The numbers for 500 years of growth at 5% are totally insane, I won’t even go there.) Obviously this is not evenly remotely plausible, so I assume you must mean something else.

  39. RedLogix 39

    speaking of act supporters, hey madeline, jesus was a trade unionist. I thought you would know that.

    And the one of the great moments in the New Testament was the day on which Jesus tossed the money lenders out of the temple.

  40. RedLogix 40

    Correction:

    or around about 2-3 times the total amount of oil currently known.

    Should be: “would use up the total amount of oil currently known in 2-3 years.”

    Optimistically.

  41. John BT 41

    Merry Christmas to you all. (Even Kerry)

  42. Dean: I was describing the group who were mislead ino ving for National. I didn’t make any attempt to describe anyone else or whether or not they were also mislead. Don’t fill in the blanks with your own ill-founded assumptions. They appear to be flawed.

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    Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers features co-hosts and talking with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent about the National-ACT-NZ First Government’s moves this week to take farming out of the ETS and encourage more mining and oil and ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Climate policy axed in broad daylight, while taxpayer liabilities grow in the dark
    In 2019, Shane Jones addressed the “50 Shades of Green” protest at Parliament: Now he is part of a government giving those farmers a pass on becoming part of the ETS, as well as threatening to lock in offshore oil exploration and mining for decades. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Here’s the ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Rage Bait!
    Hi,Today’s newsletter is all about how easy it is to get sucked into “rage bait” online, and how easy it is to get played.But first I wanted to share something that elicited the exact opposite of rage in me — something that made me feel incredibly proud, whilst also making ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    4 days ago
  • Bernard's Dawn Chorus and pick 'n' mix for Friday, June 14
    Seymour said lower speed limits “drained the joy from life as people were forced to follow rules they knew made no sense.” File Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: My six things to note in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Friday, June 14 were:The National/ACT/NZ First ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Friendly but frank talks with China Premier
    It sounded like the best word to describe yesterday’s talks between Chinese Premier Li Qiang and his heavyweight delegation of Ministers and officials and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and New Zealand Ministers and officials was “frank.” But it was the kind of frankness that friends can indulge in. It ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #24 2024
    Open access notables Wildfire smoke impacts lake ecosystems, Farruggia et al., Global Change Biology: We introduce the concept of the lake smoke-day, or the number of days any given lake is exposed to smoke in any given fire season, and quantify the total lake smoke-day exposure in North America from 2019 ...
    4 days ago
  • Geoffrey Miller: China’s message to New Zealand – don’t put it all at risk
    Don’t put it all at risk. That’s likely to be the take-home message for New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon in his meetings with Li Qiang, the Chinese Premier. Li’s visit to Wellington this week is the highest-ranking visit by a Chinese official since 2017. The trip down under – ...
    Democracy ProjectBy Geoffrey Miller
    5 days ago
  • The Real Thing
    I know the feelingIt is the real thingThe essence of the soulThe perfect momentThat golden momentI know you feel it tooI know the feelingIt is the real thingYou can't refuse the embraceNo?Sometimes we face the things we most dislike. A phobia or fear that must be confronted so it doesn’t ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on how moderates empower the political right
    Struth, what a week. Having made sure the rural sector won’t have to pay any time soon for its pollution, PM Christopher Luxon yesterday chose Fieldays 2024 to launch a parliamentary inquiry into rural banking services, to see how the banks have been treating farmers faced with high interest rates. ...
    5 days ago
  • Bernard's Dawn Chorus and pick 'n' mix for Thursday, June 13
    In April, 17,656 people left Aotearoa-NZ to live overseas, averaging 588 a day, with just over half of those likely to have gone to Australia. Photo: Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: My six things to note in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Thursday, June 13 ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Our guide to having your say on the draft RLTP 2024
    Auckland’s draft Regional Land Transport Plan (RLTP) 2024 is open for feedback – and you only have until Monday 17 June to submit. Do it! Join the thousands of Aucklanders who are speaking up for wise strategic investment that will dig us out of traffic and give us easy and ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    5 days ago
  • The China puzzle
    Chinese Premier Li Qiang arrives in Wellington today for a three-day visit to the country. The visit will take place amid uncertainty about the future of the New Zealand-China relationship. Li hosted a formal welcome and then lunch for then-Prime Minister Chris Hipkins in Beijing a year ago. The pair ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago
  • Fossil fuels are shredding our democracy
    This is a re-post of an article from the Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler published on June 3, 2024. I have an oped in the New York Times (gift link) about this. For a long time, a common refrain about the energy transition was that renewable energy needed to become ...
    5 days ago
  • Life at 20 kilometres an hour
    We are still in France, getting from A to B.Possibly for only another week, though; Switzerland and Germany are looming now. On we pedal, towards Budapest, at about 20 km per hour.What are are mostly doing is inhaling a country, loving its ways and its food. Rolling, talking, quietly thinking. ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • Hipkins is still useless
    The big problem with the last Labour government was that they were chickenshits who did nothing with the absolute majority we had given them. They governed as if they were scared of their own shadows, afraid of making decisions lest it upset someone - usually someone who would never have ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Exercising with the IDF.
    This morning I did something I seldom do, I looked at the Twitter newsfeed. Normally I take the approach of something that I’m not sure is an American urban legend, or genuinely something kids do over there. The infamous bag of dog poo on the front porch, set it on ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • Helm Hammerhand Anime: First Pictures and an Old English ‘Hera’
    We have some news on the upcoming War of the Rohirrim anime. It will apparently be two and a half hours in length, with Peter Jackson as Executive Producer, and Helm’s daughter Hera will be the main character. Also, pictures: The bloke in the middle picture is Freca’s ...
    6 days ago
  • Farmers get free pass on climate AND get subsidies
    The cows will keep burping and farting and climate change will keep accelerating - but farmers can stop worrying about being included in the ETS. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: My six things to note in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Wednesday, June 12 were:The ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • Six ideas to secure Te Huia’s Future
    This is a guest post by our friend Darren Davis. It originally appeared on his excellent blog, Adventures in Transitland, which features “musings about public transport and other cool stuff in Aotearoa/ New Zealand and around the globe.” With Te Huia now having funding secure through to 2026, now is ...
    Greater AucklandBy Darren Davis
    6 days ago
  • The methane waka sinks
    In some ways, there may be less than meets the eye to the Government announcement yesterday that the He Waka Eke Noa proposal for farmers to pay for greenhouse gas emissions has been scrapped. The spectre of farmers still having to pay at some point in the future remains. That, ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago
  • At a glance – Does positive feedback necessarily mean runaway warming?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    6 days ago
  • Climate Change: Farmers get what they wanted – for now
    Since entering office, National has unravelled practically every climate policy, leaving us with no effective way of reducing emissions or meeting our emissions budgets beyond magical thinking around the ETS. And today they've announced another step: removing agriculture entirely. At present, following the complete failure of he waka eka noa, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • Presumed Innocent?
    The blue billionaireDistraction no interactionOr movement outside these glazed over eyesThe new great divideFew fight the tide to be glorifiedBut will he be satisfied?Can we accept this without zoom?The elephant in the roomNot much happens in politics on a Monday. Bugger all in fact. Although yesterday Christopher Luxon found he ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    7 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on our doomed love affair with oil and gas
    What if New Zealand threw a fossil fuel party, and nobody came? On the weekend, Resources Minister Shane Jones sent out the invitations and strung up the balloons, but will anyone really want to invest big time in resuming oil and gas exploration in our corner of the planet? Yes, ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    7 days ago
  • Building better housing insights
    This is a guest post by Meredith Dale, senior urban designer and strategist at The Urban Advisory. There’s a saying that goes something like: ‘what you measure is what you value’. An RNZ article last week claimed that Auckland was ‘hurting’ because of a more affordable supply of homes, particularly townhouses ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    7 days ago
  • Putin would be proud of them
    A Prime Minister directs his public service to inquire into the actions of the opposition political party which is his harshest critic. Something from Orban's Hungary, or Putin's Russia? No, its happening right here in Aotearoa: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced the Public Service Commission will launch an ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Resources for debunking common solar and wind myths
    This is a repost from a Yale Climate Connections article by SueEllen Campbell published on June 3, 2024. The articles listed can help you tell fact from fiction when it comes to solar and wind energy. Some statements you hear about solar and wind energy are just plain false. ...
    1 week ago
  • Juggernaut
    Politics were going on all around us yesterday, and we barely noticed, rolling along canal paths, eating baguettes. It wasn’t until my mate got to the headlines last night that we learned there had been a dismayingly strong far right result in the EU elections and Macron had called a ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • Numbers Game.
    Respect Existence, Or Expect Resistance? There may well have been 50,000 pairs of feet “Marching For Nature” down Auckland’s Queen Street on Saturday afternoon, but the figure that impresses the Coalition Government is the 1,450,000 pairs of Auckland feet that were somewhere else.IN THE ERA OF DRONES and Artificial Intelligence, ...
    1 week ago
  • Media Link: AVFA on post-colonial blowback.
    Selwyn Manning and I discuss varieties of post colonial blowback and the implications its has for the rise of the Global South. Counties discussed include Palestine/Israel, France/New Caledonia, England/India, apartheid/post-apartheid South Africa and post-colonial New Zealand. It is a bit … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 week ago
  • Policy by panic
    Back in March, Ombudsman Peter Boshier resigned when he hit the statutory retirement age of 72, leaving the country in the awkward (and legally questionable) position of having him continue as a temporay appointee. It apparently took the entire political system by surprise - as evinced by Labour's dick move ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • PSA: NZ's Richest Company, Zuru, Sucks
    Hi,Today the New Zealand press is breathlessly reporting that the owners of toy company Zuru are officially New Zealand’s wealthiest people: Mat and Nick Mowbray worth an estimated $20 billion between them.While the New Zealand press loses its shit celebrating this Kiwi success story, this is a Webworm reminder that ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 week ago
  • Bernard's Dawn Chorus and pick 'n' mix for Monday, June 10
    TL;DR: The six things to note in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty in the past day to 8:36 pm on Monday, June 10 were:20,000 protested against the Fast-track approval bill on Saturday in Auckland, but PM Christopher Luxon says ‘sorry, but not sorry’ about the need for ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • In Defence of Kāinga Ora
    Given the headlines around the recent findings of the ‘independent’ review of Kāinga Ora by Bill English, you might assume this post will be about social housing, Kāinga Ora’s most prominent role. While that is indeed something that requires defending, I want to talk about the other core purpose of ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    1 week ago
  • Baby You're A Rich Man
    “How does it feel to beOne of the beautiful peopleNow that you know who you areWhat do you want to beAnd have you traveled very far?Far as the eye can see”Yesterday the ACT party faithful were regaled with craven boasts, sneers, and demands for even more at their annual rally.That ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Stopping a future Labour government from shutting down gas exploration
    A defiant Resources Minister Shane Jones has responded to Saturday’s environmental protests by ending Labour’s offshore oil exploration ban and calling for long-term contracts with any successful explorers. The purpose would be to prevent a future Labour Government from reversing any licence the explorers might hold. Jones sees a precedent ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    1 week ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #23
    A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, June 2, 2024 thru Sat, June 8, 2024. Story of the week Our Story of the Week is Yale Climate Connection's Resources for debunking common solar and wind myths, by ...
    1 week ago
  • Fission by the river
    This is where we ate our lunch last Wednesday. Never mind your châteaux and castles and whatnot, we like to enjoy a baguette in the shadow of a nuclear power plant; a station that puts out more than twice as much as Manapouri using nothing more than tiny atoms to bring ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • Fact Brief – Is the ocean acidifying?
    Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by John Mason in collaboration with members from the Gigafact team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Is the ocean acidifying? Acidification of oceans ...
    1 week ago
  • 20,000+ on Queen St.
    The largest protest I ever went on was in the mid 90s. There were 10,000 people there that day, and I’ve never forgotten it. An enormous mass of people, chanting together. Stretching block after block, bringing traffic to a halt.But I can’t say that’s the biggest protest I’ve ever been ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Josh Drummond's Columns
    Hi there,I wanted to put all of Josh Drummond’s Webworm pieces all in one place. I love that he writes for Webworm — and all of these are a good read!David.Why Are So Many “Christians” Hellbent on Being Horrible?Why do so many objectively hideous people declare themselves “Christian”?Meeting the Master ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 week ago
  • Bernard’s Saturday soliloquy and weekend Pick ‘n’ Mix for June 8/9
    Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: On reflection, the six things to note in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty this week were:The Government-driven freeze in building new classrooms, local roads and water networks in order to save cash for tax cuts is frustrating communities facing massive population ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The no-vision thing
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past somewhat interrupted week. Still on the move!Share Read more ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • When Journalists are Disingenuous
    Hi,One of the things I like the most about Webworm is to be able to break down the media and journalism a little, and go behind the scenes.This is one of those times.Yesterday an email arrived in my inbox from journalist Jonathan Milne, who is managing editor at Newsroom.I don’t ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 week ago
  • Me, elsewhere: Just say you’ll do the thing
    Wrote something over at 1/200 on a familiar theme of mine: The way we frame the economy as a separate, sacred force which must be sacrificed to, the way we talk about criminals as invaders who must be repelled, the constant othering of people on the benefit, people not in ...
    Boots TheoryBy Stephanie Rodgers
    1 week ago
  • A Voyage Among the Vandals: Accepted
    A nice bit of news today: my 4600-word historical fantasy-horror piece, A Voyage Among the Vandals, has been accepted by Phobica Books (https://www.phobicabooks.co.uk/books) for their upcoming Pirate Horror anthology, Shivering Timbers. This one is set in the Mediterranean, during the mid-fifth century AD. Notable for having one of history’s designated ...
    1 week ago
  • Ministerial conflicts of interest
    Since the National government came to power, it has been surrounded by allegations of conflicts of interest. Firstly, there's the fast-track law, which concentrates power in the hands of three Ministers, some of whom have received donations from companies whose projects they will be deciding on. Secondly, there's the close ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • The 2024 Budget Forecasts Are Gloomy Prognosis About The Next Three Years.
    There was no less razzamatazz about the 2024 Budget than about earlier ones. Once again the underlying economic analysis got lost. It deserves more attention.Just to remind you, the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU), is the Treasury’s independent assessment and so can be analysed by other competent economists (although ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    2 weeks ago
  • A government that can't see twenty feet ahead
    There are two failings that consistently characterise a National government. One is a lack of imagination, the other is their willingness to look after their mates, no matter what harm it might do to everyone else.This is how we come to have thousands of enormous trucks carving up our roads. ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 weeks ago
  • A post I hope is incorrect
    In May, we learned that National MP David MacLeod had "forgotten" to declare $178,000 in electoral donations. Filing a donation return which is false in any material particular is a crime, and the Electoral Commission has now referred MacLeod to police, since they're the only people who are allowed to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Māori Cannot Re-Write New Zealand’s Constitution By Stealth.
    The Kotahitanga Parliament 1897: A Māori Parliament – at least in the guise of a large and representative body dedicated to describing the shape of New Zealand’s future from a Māori perspective – would be a very good idea.THE DEMAND for a “Māori Parliament” needs to be carefully unpicked. Some Pakeha, ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Cowpats and Colonials.
    Dumbtown, is how my friend Gerard refers to people like ZB listeners - he’s not wrong.Normally on a Friday I start by looking at Mike Hosking’s moronic reckons of the week which he vomits down the throats of his audience like helpless baby birds in a nest, grateful for the ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 weeks ago
  • Gordon Campbell on cutting the sick leave of vulnerable workers
    Should sick leave be part and parcel of the working conditions from Day One on the job, just like every other health and safety provision? Or should access to sick leave be something that only gradually accumulates, depending on how long a worker has been on the payroll? If enacted ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    2 weeks ago

  • Making it easier to build granny flats
    The Government has today announced that it is making it easier for people to build granny flats, Acting Prime Minister Winston Peters and RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop say. “Making it easier to build granny flats will make it more affordable for families to live the way that suits them ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    13 hours ago
  • High Court Judge appointed
    Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Auckland King’s Counsel Gregory Peter Blanchard as a High Court Judge. Justice Blanchard attended the University of Auckland from 1991 to 1995, graduating with an LLB (Honours) and Bachelor of Arts (English). He was a solicitor with the firm that is now Dentons ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Health workforce numbers rise
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says new data released today shows encouraging growth in the health workforce, with a continued increase in the numbers of doctors, nurses and midwives joining Health New Zealand. “Frontline healthcare workers are the beating heart of the healthcare system. Increasing and retaining our health workforce ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government to overhaul firearms laws
    Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee has today announced a comprehensive programme to reform New Zealand's outdated and complicated firearms laws. “The Arms Act has been in place for over 40 years. It has been amended several times – in a piecemeal, and sometimes rushed way. This has resulted in outdated ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government delivers landmark specialist schools investment
    The coalition Government is delivering record levels of targeted investment in specialist schools so children with additional needs can thrive. As part of Budget 24, $89 million has been ringfenced to redevelop specialist facilities and increase satellite classrooms for students with high needs. This includes: $63 million in depreciation funding ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Major health and safety consultation begins
    A substantial consultation on work health and safety will begin today with a roadshow across the regions over the coming months, says Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden.  This the first step to deliver on the commitment to reforming health and safety law and regulations, set out in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Growing the potential of New Zealand’s forestry sector in partnership
    Forestry Minister Todd McClay, today announced the start of the Government’s plan to restore certainty and confidence in the forestry and wood processing sector. “This government will drive investment to unlock the industry’s economic potential for growth,” Mr McClay says. “Forestry’s success is critical to rebuilding New Zealand’s economy, boosting ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government cancels forestry ETS annual service charges for 2023-24
    Annual service charges in the forestry Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) will be cancelled for 2023/24, Forestry Minister Todd McClay says. “The sector has told me the costs imposed on forestry owners by the previous government were excessive and unreasonable and I agree,” Mr McClay says. “They have said that there ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Speech to the LGNZ Infrastructure Symposium
    Introduction Thank you for having me here today and welcome to Wellington, the home of the Hurricanes, the next Super Rugby champions. Infrastructure – the challenge This government has inherited a series of big challenges in infrastructure. I don’t need to tell an audience as smart as this one that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government boosts Agriculture and food trade with China
    Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay and Food Safety Minister Andrew Hoggard welcomed outcomes to boost agricultural and food trade between New Zealand and China. A number of documents were signed today at Government House that will improve the business environment between New Zealand and China, and help reduce barriers, including on infant formula ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ and China launch Services Trade Negotiations
    Trade Minister Todd McClay, and China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, today announced the official launch of Negotiations on Services Trade between the two countries.  “The Government is focused on opening doors for services exporters to grow the New Zealand’s economy,” Mr McClay says.  As part of the 2022 New Zealand-China Free Trade Agreement Upgrade ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Prime Minister Luxon meets with Premier Li
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang at Government House in Wellington today.  “I was pleased to welcome Premier Li to Wellington for his first official visit, which marks 10 years since New Zealand and China established a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership,” Mr Luxon says. “The Premier and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government and business tackling gender pay gap
    The coalition Government is taking action to reduce the gender pay gap in New Zealand through the development of a voluntary calculation tool. “Gender pay gaps have impacted women for decades, which is why we need to continue to drive change in New Zealand,” Acting Minister for Women Louise Upston ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Funding Boost for Rural Support Trusts
    The coalition Government is boosting funding for Rural Support Trusts to provide more help to farmers and growers under pressure, Rural Communities Minister Mark Patterson announced today. “A strong and thriving agricultural sector is crucial to the New Zealand economy and one of the ways to support it is to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Latest data shows size of public service decreasing
    Spending on contractors and consultants continues to fall and the size of the Public Service workforce has started to decrease after years of growth, according to the latest data released today by the Public Service Commission. Workforce data for the quarter from 31 December 23 to 31 March 24 shows ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Speech to the Law Association
    Thank you to the Law Association for inviting me to speak this morning. As a former president under its previous name — the Auckland District Law Society — I take particular satisfaction in seeing this organisation, and its members, in such good heart. As Attorney-General, I am grateful for these ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • 25 years on, NZ reaffirms enduring friendship with Timor Leste
    New Zealand is committed to working closely with Timor-Leste to support its prosperity and resilience, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.   “This year is the 25th anniversary of New Zealand sending peacekeepers to Timor-Leste, who contributed to the country’s stabilisation and ultimately its independence,” Mr Peters says.    “A quarter ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Inquiry requested into rural banking
    Promoting robust competition in the banking sector is vital to rebuilding the economy, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says.  “New Zealanders deserve a banking sector that is as competitive as possible. Banking services play an important role in our communities and in the economy. Kiwis rely on access to lending when ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Ministry for Regulation targets red tape to keep farmers and growers competitive
    Regulation Minister David Seymour, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds, and Food Safety Minister Andrew Hoggard have today announced a regulatory sector review on the approval process for new agricultural and horticultural products.    “Red tape stops farmers and growers from getting access to products that have been approved by other OECD countries. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government to reverse blanket speed limit reductions
    The Coalition Government will reverse Labour’s blanket speed limit reductions by 1 July 2025 through a new Land Transport Rule released for public consultation today, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  The draft speed limit rule will deliver on the National-ACT coalition commitment to reverse the previous government’s blanket speed limit ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Chair appointments for NZSO, CNZ and NZ On Air
    Minister Paul Goldsmith is making major leadership changes within both his Arts and Media portfolios. “I am delighted to announce Carmel Walsh will be officially stepping into the role of Chair of the New Zealand Symphony Orchestra, having been acting Chair since April,” Arts Minister Paul Goldsmith says.  “Carmel is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government focus on long-term food, fibre growth
    Food and fibre export revenue is tipped to reach $54.6 billion this year and hit a record $66.6b in 2028 as the Government focuses on getting better access to markets and cutting red tape, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay and Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones say. “This achievement is testament ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Govt consulting on cutting red tape for exporters
    A new export exemption proposal for food businesses demonstrates the coalition Government’s commitment to reducing regulatory barriers for industry and increasing the value of New Zealand exports, which gets safe New Zealand food to more markets, says Food Safety Minister Andrew Hoggard.  “The coalition Government has listened to the concerns ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • New Zealand and Philippines elevating relationship
    New Zealand and Philippines are continuing to elevate our relationship, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.   “The leaders of New Zealand and Philippines agreed in April 2024 to lift our relationship to a Comprehensive Partnership by 2026,” Mr Peters says. “Our visit to Manila this week has been an excellent ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Paid Parental Leave increase to help families
    Workplace Relations and Safety Minister, Brooke van Velden says paid parental leave increase from 1 July will put more money in the pockets of Kiwi parents and give them extra support as they take precious time off to bond with their newborns. The increase takes effect from 1 July 2024 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Defence increases UN Command commitment
    The number of New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) personnel deployed to the Republic of Korea is increasing, Defence Minister Judith Collins and Foreign Minister Winston Peters announced today.  NZDF will deploy up to 41 additional personnel to the Republic of Korea, increasing the size of its contribution to the United ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • New Zealand to attend 'Summit on Peace in Ukraine' in Switzerland
    New Zealand will be represented at the Summit on Peace in Ukraine by Minister Mark Mitchell in Switzerland later this week.    “New Zealand strongly supports Ukraine’s efforts to build a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace,” Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.   “Minister Mitchell is a senior Cabinet Minister and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Big step forward for M.bovis programme
    Farmers’ hard work is paying off in the fight against Mycoplasma bovis (M. bovis) with the move to a national pest management plan marking strong progress in the eradication effort, says Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard.  “The plan, approved by the Coalition Government, was proposed by the programme partners DairyNZ, Beef ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Build To Rent opening welcomed by Housing Minister
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Housing Minister Chris Bishop formally opened a new Build to Rent development in Mt Wellington this morning. “The Prime Minister and I were honoured to cut the ribbon of Resido, New Zealand’s largest Build to Rent development to date.  “Build to Rent housing, like the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Agriculture to come out of the ETS
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