Originally posted on Nick Kelly’s blog
On February 24 2022 Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military to invade Ukraine, a nation that declared independence from Russia on August 24 1991. This is not the first time in Ukraine’s 30 years of independence that the Russian Federation has attacked Ukraine, having annexed the Crimea region back in 2014. Vladimir Putin has made no secret of the fact that he believes Ukraine has been ruled by forces hostile to Russia. Whilst many were surprised by the Russian government’s decision to take this hostile action toward Ukraine, there were plenty of warning signs that this may happen.
It is not my view that war is inevitable, be it in the Ukraine, Palestine, Syria or elsewhere. However, there are often only small windows of opportunity where a lasting peace can be built or negotiated. In the case of Russia and Ukraine, there have been plenty of warning signs over the last 30 years and potentially different responses to these may have produced a different result. What-if-isms are of little comfort or help to those now forced to flee Ukraine or those who are now staying to defend their homeland against Russian invasion.
Residents remove their belongings from a destroyed building in Kyiv after it was hit by artillery shelling. [Felipe Dana/AP Photo]
Russia is the aggressor in this conflict. The targeting of civilians and shelling during a so-called Cease-Fire are acts committed by the Russian forces, and the US President is correct to call President Putin a ‘war criminal’. Those who justify or use moral equivocation by citing the presence of the far-right in Ukraine or that this was in response to NATO expansion miss the point. Yes, the far-right does have a presence in Ukraine and yes they also have joined the resistance to the current invasion. But the logic that this somehow justifies the Russian invasion is incredibly warped. For one, the war gives the far right in Ukraine space to recruit and win support by being part of the resistance. Secondly, if the correct response is for Russia to invade every European country that has an active far-right then very few nations are not at risk of invasion.
On the left, many are still influenced by the analysis of Lenin during the First World War and just before the 1917 Russian Revolution that in an inter-imperialist conflict socialists should be standing up to their own ruling class. During the First World War, there were strong arguments for working people not to align with the Tsar in Russia or other imperialist leaders in that conflict. It is dangerous to simply apply this idea to the current conflict without understanding that the context is different. There is a strong argument that people should be holding their own government or ‘ruling class’ to account during any situation like this. Ultimately, the decision to invade Ukraine was Russia’s, but there is still a question of what the governments and in particular NATO members could have done to help prevent this and what they can do now. Sadly, some on the left and drawn both bizarre and quite dangerous conclusions based on the premise that their role is to stick it to their own ruling class. Bizarrely, some socialists still mistake Russia to be some sort of socialist/anti-imperialist power, thinking that there is some residue influence of the 1917 revolution.
In my late teens, a became involved with radical left politics largely influenced by opposing the invasion of Afghanistan and later Iraq. I began studying the history of US foreign policy in places like Chile in 1973 or Iran in 1953. In 2001, just before the attack on the Twin Towers in New York, Australian journalist John Pilger released a documentary called The New Rulers of the World, which clearly outlined the role played by the US in installing the Suharto dictatorship in Indonesia. This in turn meant that country allowed western manufacturers to move production to that country where labour standards were very low and clothing and other items could be produced cheaply. Whilst Pilger has always been prone to being an evangelist for his cause and being a polarising figure, in the past, he has played an important role in highlighting the shortcomings of western governments. Pilger’s bizarre article written days before the Russian invasion is selective with which facts it includes and effectively paints President Putin and the Russian state as victims of Western propaganda. Pilger like many others on the left is so determined to expose their own ‘ruling class’ that they’ll downplay or ignore the countless human rights abuses committed by Russia under Putin’s leadership.
Many on the left, and some on the right or centre focussed their attention on NATO. The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation is a Cold War military alliance designed to stand up to the Soviet Union. After the end of the Cold War, there is a legitimate question as to whether this alliance should have continued. Many continued to be nervous about Russia, a nation that is resource-rich and historically has been very influential. It also does not have a strong history of democracy and instead has had a brutal history of state control both under Tsarism and later when it was the USSR. Certainly for the nations like Lithuania and Ukraine which were ruled by Russia for many years this nervousness is justified. Whether retaining the NATO alliance was the best way to counter this is a fair question. However, to say that the threat of Ukraine joining NATO provoked or even justified the Russian invasion is just wrong. Kier Starmer’s threat to withdraw the whip from any UK Labour MP who supported the Stop the War coalition who is calling for No NATO Expansion is an overreaction. That said, the optics of the coalition’s slogan are really bad. Whatever faults there are with NATO, it is Russia that has just invaded a sovereign country resulting in death, destruction and people being displaced. Trying to deflect from this is not a credible position at all.
The other argument put forward is moral equivalence, whereby people argue that the decision of the US and its allies to invade Iraq was just as bad so who are we to go criticising Russia. The decision to invade Iraq was wrong and few would still defend that action. That does not mean Britain or the US should not criticise Russia for what it is doing in Ukraine, if anything it places a greater responsibility on these governments to uphold human rights now. This is even more important when there is a real chance of forces more sympathetic to Russia taking power. Former US President Donald Trump continues to describe Vladimir Putin in glowing terms. Trump continues to exert considerable influence and control over the Republican Party, who currently stands a strong chance of gaining at least one house in the midterm elections later this year. In such a scenario there are no guarantees that the current pressure being applied to the Putin regime will hold up.
One of the problems has been the inconsistent approach to Russia since the end of the Soviet Union. The recent pressure for Roman Abramovich to sell Chelsea Football Club has brought to light some of the corrupt practices he and others used to make their fortune including the purchase of an oil company from the Russian government in a rigged auction in 1995. The UK allowed these characters to invest this ill-gotten gain into its economy, right up till earlier this year. When the current Russian regime attacked Chechnya in 1999, invaded Georgia in 2008, invaded Crimea and parts of Donbas in Ukraine in 2014 and engaged in a proxy war in Syria it was met with only mild responses including limited sanctions against Russia or mealy-mouthed speeches. Meanwhile, the city of London continued to be awash with ill-gotten money from Russia. That the current UK Prime Minister gave a peerage to Lord Lebedev, owner of two major UK newspapers and friend of Boris Johnson and other senior Conservatives despite security concerns being raised at the time indicates the level of influence Russian money now has in the UK.
Back when the Eastern block fell, the priority was to integrate them into global markets. This was of course at the end of the free market 80s where the naive view was that through economic liberalism democratic political reform would also occur. This maybe a generous view, for many, access to Russian markets and resources was an opportunity for profit. Whilst opportunistically making money from this new market, the political response was to leave NATO intact and treat Russia as a potential foe. Whilst trying to impose Western-style democracy into Russia rather than letting the people of that country decide on their own future would have been an error, to assume that a country with a history of little else than totalitarian regimes would be quick to embrace liberal democracy, free speech and human rights was foolish. What the best approach would have been in hindsight is still unclear, but it seems to profit from post-soviet Russia whilst at the same time treating it as a potential military and political threat has not led to a good outcome.
The invasion that began just over two months ago will have a profound impact on global politics for many years. The conflict is unlikely to end quickly and will take a toll on everyone involved. In the end, it will likely result in a military defeat for Russia and humiliation for Putin. This could mean a much more volatile situation in dealing with a state that has a permanent seat on the UN security council and has nuclear weapons. Much of Europe currently relies on Russia for oil and gas and moving away from this will cause considerable economic upheaval. And Ukraine will take years to recover from this invasion even once the conflict has ceased.
This war needs to end yesterday and never would have started but for the destructive tentacles of the USA .Negotiation not more weapons .Allowing america to add another notch to their failed state belt could be the last act of a doomed planet .
But yes Ukraine is getting what they deserve. Zelenski and his war machine have had years to sort this out. Well they are getting sorted now and there's fuck all the yanks can actually do about it. I hope Bidens wardogs lose to Trump in the next election as a blowback for funding this madness.
The Ukraine civilians are the big losers, and don't deserve any of this,
I want NZ to send aid only to the civilians only. Zelenski and his army can go to hell, and they certainly are!
I guess aside from the tiny inconvenient fact that Ukraine did not attack Russian territory, and indeed gave up its nuclear arsenal to be less of a threat. We will probably also have to ignore the utter absurdity of any country casually attacking a country with a nuclear arsenal like Russia.
I suppose you'd prefer it if the Russian forces just assaulted and murdered Ukrainian civilians while the Ukraine military did nothing? What a curious mind you have.
I think they were on the point of invading Crimea, which of course is part of Russia. There was also the matter of the attacks on Donbass etc. which was mostly populated by ethnic Russians.
There is zero evidence that Ukraine was going to send troops to or attack the ukraine in any manner whatsoever.
The fighting/skirmishes in the Donbas region of Ukraine has been going on for somet time why did Putin decide to attack now and why did he try to seize control of the entire country and murder thousands nowhere near the Donbas region ?
'They banned education in Russian.
They banned the ability to speak Russian at school (teachers can be fired for this).
They banned the ability to speak Russian at work (you can be fined or fired for this).
They banned the ability to speak Russian for politics (even politics like the president can’t speak Russian)
Also cinema, theater, excursions, etc, etc.
You can’t even sign in Russian in public in some cities like Lviv.
'It is allowed to speak Russianin private but illegal to provide services in Russian unless specifically asked by customer. So, people in absolutely russian–speaking cities obliged to address customers in ukrainian because they can be fined if some ukrainian from Western Ukraine complains.'
It looks very much like the Ukranians were looking to protect and promote their cultural language. If it was Te Reo we were talking about you would be all for it.
What an idiotic comparison! Te Reo is adding a language to include another culture. Ukraine deleted Russian to persecute a large sector of their population. Estimated native speakers of Russian in Ukraine are 40%!
It is not illegal to provide services in Russian. The law you are referring to states that the service must be made available in Ukrainian UNLESS the customer requests otherwise. In this regard it is similar to what happens in Quebec with French. I disagree with the policy but it is not the same as making speaking another language illegal as you suggest.
Sorry, but you really are very wrong. There is ample evidence from the OSCE that artillery fire from the Ukraine side into Donbass increased by a factor of 30 in the days before the 24th starting on the 16th. Biden knew this barrage had begun when he asserted an imminent invasion and that Putin was already under pressure to take seriously the hell that was being created for Russian speakers in Ukraine
I understand Putin tried over and over again to get Zelenskyy to the negotiating table, but Zelenskyy refused. The invasion was probably the last straw.
Apparently there were movements of crack troops towards Donbas just prior to the invasion. Those could have been preparation for a concerted attack on Donetsk, or possibly to support an invasion of Crimea; ie to cut off a possible counterattack from the East.
Ukraine is known to have a policy of recovering Crimea
Given that nukes were supplied by the Soviets, there is no implication that Ukraine was entitled to hold on to them once the Soviet Union ceased to exist. The same would apply to Ukraine’s "ownership" of Crimea.
This would be the same Crimea transferred to the Ukraine SSR on the authority of the Supreme Soviet on 19 February 1954 would it?
Now I'm no fancy book-learning diplomat or international lawyer, but given no agreement was ratified transferring either back to Russia with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and Ukraine wasn't a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, there is no case to answer.
When the assignment was made in 1954, I don't think it was envisaged that Crimea would ever fall into the hands of the West. One would suppose that that was never part of the deal. Clearly, with Ukraine moving Westwards, Crimea should have reverted to Russian control.
"Fall into the hands of the West"
It's fascinating watching someone condemning Western economic imperialism while quite brazenly defending Russian neo-imperial rechavism. It really is.
I echo the comment about paragraphs. Perhaps you could edit this and add a few appropriate paragraphs to make reading a bit easier.
I think this conflict may not last as long as what people think.
Firstly, Russia may well start running low on ammo soon. There have been a number of well publicised attacks on Russian ammo dumps, including in the major Russian staging area of Belgorod. But more importantly, there has just been a huge fire at a major weapons factory in Perm, Russia. This factory manufactures rockets, missiles, and shells used in the Russian war effort. I understand it is the second largest in Russia.
Fires and other sabotage activity in the Belgorod region are relatively close to Ukraine, and are likely due to Ukrainian attacks. But there have been a lot of fires in other key industries well outside of Ukrainian artillery or missile range, and much deeper into Russia. So, it could potentially be that Russian dissidents themselves are attacking some of this infrastructure.
So, this type of activity is going to have an effect on the ability for Russians to resupply their forces with ammunition. Compounding this are the effect of sanctions since many Russian complex military systems and weapons rely on electronics from the US and other western nations meaning the Russians are trying to find work-arounds to get these products.
Secondly, however, on the Ukrainian side of the equation, the Ukrainians are already causing the Russians a lot of trouble before the heavy weapons on the field have even arrived. Once the Ukrainians have these heavy weapons, they will have an endless supply of western ammunition.
So, there will soon likely be a situation where Russia is struggling for ammunition, and Ukraine is able to destroy the Russian artillery that is the cornerstone of the Russian military war method.
Therefore, I expect within the next month or so that the Ukrainians will be able to start pushing the Russians back out of Ukraine.
I think the Russians scuppered any hope of a peace deal due to all the war crimes they committed in Bucha, and the fact that they seem intent on erasing the Ukrainian nation.
Why would Ukraine be interested in a peace deal at all, especially when they see they have the chance to push the Russians right out of Ukraine.
One of the first things I think the Ukrainians will do once they have the right equipment from the west is to hit the Crimean bridge that connects Russia to Crimea. This would create a huge problem for the Russians, and as you can see from the article, not something they would be very happy about.
Portraying the Ukrainian people as unwilling dupes of the west is errant nonsense.
Their remembered history of russian/soviet behaviour over the last century combined with they fierce resistance to the russian invasion overwhelming supported by the majority of their population combined with the exodus of millions of civilians to western aligned countries suggests you are the dupe not the ukrainian people.
Mikesh has it about right. It has taken huge amounts of money thrown at extremists by the US in their usual way to create the current situation. 2014 was a US manufactured coup that gave Nato access to fanatics that could be trained and nurtured. Even at the point of the election of Zelenski, the people of Ukraine rejected the obvious extremism of Poroshenko. Zelenski was elected as the outsider that pledged to act on the minsk accords which would have ended hostilities in Donbass and Luhansk
Sure, Yanukovych's blatant corruption couldn't possibly have had anything to do with Euromaidan gaining popularity. Yes, they had money from Washington. Yanukovych was in the pocket of Moscow, but apparently that's OK, and we'll just ignore those inconvenient democratic elections since then.
Well, if corruption is the only metric, Zelenski has quite a large footprint in the pandora papers. As for the elections, he had overwhelming support from the Russian speaking LDNR on the promise of following through on the Minsk agreements. As the link shows, he sold out.
It's not the only metric. There's always good old blood on the ground and civilian death tolls. You just really hate the idea of Ukrainians having any agency.
I'm pretty sure the issue with the Euromaidan was the desire to "do a deal with Europe. Hence the name Euromaidan. the illegal coup which ousted Yanukovich was occasioned by his accepting an economics assistance deal from Russia, when Europe appeared to dragging the chain.
Rather amusing given Russia was hardly in a position to give economic assistance to anyone. Why is it that you can't condemn US militarism without playing apologist for Putin. I can. It's easy. US and Russian imperialism are both bad. See? Easy.
Russia has been giving economic assistance to numerous 3rd world countries for..decades…real aid…not debt bearing aid that is paid to western corporations.
The 'aid' gets paid to western corporations…and the recipient country gets landed with the interest and principal.When they default it becomes a lever to remainder..resources.
As it happens Russia gave 15 billion dollars (I think that was the amount) in 2014, with no strings attached. This was what riled the Euromaidan protesters. Some people just don't know when they're well off. Apparently they'd have preferred a much smaller conditional deal from the Europeans.
The Ukrainian military still has a large pool of military aged and trained personnel to draw reinforcements from as a result of the mobilisation orders issued at the start of the war and is receiving massive amounts of military equipment from Western nations. Russia on the other hand is depleting it's professional military wing and is restricted from replenishing the troops in Ukraine with the decision not to declare this a war. The Russians advances in the areas they are attacking on are measured in a few kilometers per day if that and they are losing the momentum and initiative.
So maybe its Nato thats a little short on weaponry? I mean, a lot is getting blown up as soon as it arrives. Might have to delay the plan of lighting another fire in Taiwan by a few years. Not to mention Israel. They are used to cargo planes arriving on call to resupply missiles rained down on pesky Palestinians but are they now going to have to get in behind first Ukraine, then Taiwan?
The age of the howitzers isn't the point. The point is they are being supplied with counter-battery radar that ups the effectiveness of the artillery to modern standards. The radar allows the Ukrainians to identify the source of incoming artillery fire then target the source and take it out.
I have seen no reports to suggest that large quantities of supplied military aid is being successfully targeted, and how could the Russians possibly validate such a claim?
Do you really think the Ukrainians are so stupid not to realise that the Russians are targeting their stuff, and therefore don't take countermeasures such as splitting their gear into many smaller, distributed locations, setting up decoy warehouses and the like?
Aside from Javelins and Turkish-made drones, little weaponry from NATO states has been deployed yet. Ukraine is still on its old Soviet era MiGs and tanks.
Sigh. Irrespective of your childish name calling, of the equipment NATO states are funneling into Ukraine, most hasn't been deployed yet because the Ukraine forces prefer to use the old Soviet hardware they're familiar with. More to the point, why do you take such pleasure in Putin's butchery of Ukraine?
Actually, they are fighting for themselves and their freedom, and would likely be fighting still regardless of help from the West.
So, what would you recommend them do? Lay down their weapons and be slaughtered like those in Bucha or Maruipal?
Have you ever wondered why people would rather fight to the death than be under Russian control? It doesn't say much about life under Russia if death is preferable, does it?
Well given the violent history that Russia has inflicted on Ukraine under Imperial Russia rulei& then during its 1st independence from in the from 1917 to the early 20 with the Bolsheviks. Then later with Stalin with Holodomor in the 30's through to the death of Stalin & then 80"s with Chernobyl.
The Ukranians have never trusted Russia & even when it give up it's WMD's & other Strategic Wpns. It sought guarantees from Russia under the Lisbon Protocol & the Budapest Memorandum that Russia won't interfere with it security or it's economic development to make its own decisions as a sovereign country.
But that all changed when Tsar Poot's managed to install his Toady President which to the lead to the 2014 uprising & old mate fled to Russia.
Poland, the Baltic States, Finland & Sweden are in the same boat as Ukraine atm & they would rather die than live back under a Russia Jackboot again. Thence they ended choosing to join NATO & the EU when they got the opportunity.
Unlike Ukraine who tried to give Neutrality a chance, but it wasn't going to work long term when Tsar Poot's is running Russia. So Ukranie tired to join NATO & the EU, but was blocked by Germany's use of its veto vote in NATO & EU by Merkel's German Government. Who was in Poot's back pocket as it wanted cheap Russia Gas IOT shut down its Nuclear & Coal powered power stations.
Yes, Scud – that part of the world has always operated that way.
Don't imagine for one minute that the Ukrainian propagandists or soldiers are any less prone to misbehavior than the Russians are. There are no innocents among the military and politicians making up the news.
Others say that the USA were behind that evil coup d'état of 2014.
My fear is that we are being fed lies from the Ukrainians that are approved of by our 5-eyes masters, and then dispersed to us in our mass media.
That would be a terrible situation if we fear escalation by either major party, because if we believe what we are being fed, we could well provoke that escalation.
And I fear that those patriots who approve of every report of innocent Ukranians being butchered and tortured by evil Russians – well, those ignorant idiots are silly people being duped by their own side's propaganda.
One aspect of Orwell's 1984 has come true: We have always been at war with….
Except, you know, it's not American territory being invaded and American civilians being abused and murdered. You do understand that Ukraine is, in fact, a sovereign nation with most of the skin in this conflict, yeah? Does it occur to you that a substantial number of the population don't want to have their existence dictated to them by Moscow? I mean, you'd have to be the worst kind of unempathetic nihilist not to understand Ukraine is fighting for its very existence. They've done the Russian client state thing before and they don't like it. The Holodomor is very much in the cultural memory.
The Ukraine was not being "dictated to by Russia". However, that was not the point, as far as the Ukranian Neo Nazis were concerned. They just seemed to hate everything Russian. Zelenskyy was elected as the “peace” candidate, which would seem to indicate that the majority of Ukrainians wanted peace with Russia. It was a pity their government thought otherwise.
The majority of Ukrainians no doubt did want peace with Russia … pity Putin chose to invade and try to take the country over, murder civilians and cause the largest refugee crisis in Europe since the WW2.
Riiiiiight. So by your logic an ANZAC invasion of the Solomon Islands would be completely justified because their defense agreement with China puts us in range of a Julang-3 in a few years.
A false equivalence. China could probably bomb us with something or other, even without a base on the Solomons. Besides, I doubt whether we represent any sort of threat to China.
How is it a false equivalence? The US has ICBMs and stealth bombers. They don't even need the NATO bases they already have had on or near the Russian border for decades. You can't even explain how a strictly defensive alliance is a threat to a major nuclear power.
And then there's the little issue of Kaliningrad, which NATO has never so much as made a peep about.
You're funny. You're also historically ignorant. There are still Ukrainians alive who remember the Holodomor – can't imagine why that might make them anti-Russian – maybe something happened in 2014 to upset them? As for the old "Nazi" line, maybe actually look at the make-up of the Ukraine Parliament before uttering such profound absurdities. Of course the majority of Ukrainians wanted peace with Russia – they also wanted their sovereignty. Apparently Putin thought otherwise.
They already had their sovereignty. They just didn't realize that their Nazi dominated government was about to give it away.
I'm inclined to think that, given the obvious hostility that exists between West and East, there ought to be well defined spheres of influence attributed to each. I believe a line of demarkation should extend from the Baltic sea in the North to the Black sea in the South. That would place Ukraine, as well as the Baltic states and Finland within the Russian sphere of influence. there are some who sneer at "Finlandization", but I think the Finns have it about right for the circumstances in which they find themselves.
Sovereignty includes the ability to decide your own defense and economic partnerships without seeking the permission of the neighbours, so clearly Putin was under the impression that Ukraine didn't have sovereignty and said so on more than one occasion.
Also maybe show some evidence of this "Nazi dominated government" – In the last election Svoboda and the other far-right parties only won 2.15% of the vote combined and didn't get seats in the Parliament.
As for "Finlandization", you might think the Finns had it about right, but they've clearly changed their mind on that front thanks to Putin. You know, seeing as they're rushing to join NATO.
Sovereignty includes the ability to decide your own defense and economic partnerships without seeking the permission of the neighbours,
Gaining and maintaining sovereignty can sometime entail taking care not to antagonise one's neighbours. The hoops that Finland had to jump through, after WWII, in order to restore friendly relations with Russia, and ensure its own sovereignty, after siding with Germany during the war, should perhaps be lesson of which all countries should all take heed.
As for "Finlandization", you might think the Finns had it about right, but they've clearly changed their mind on that front thanks to Putin. You know, seeing as they're rushing to join NATO.
Finland was both smart and successful after WWII; they would be fools to now away that success by joining NATO.
Perhaps you should stop conflating all western nations with the US and we might get somewhere.
US citizens, Joe Biden, Victoria Nuland, and the late John McCain, were in Kyiv around 2014, stirring things up. They are as much to blame as anybody for the current mess in Ukraine.
There some who have suggested that if Russia is allowed to "get away with" its invasion of Ukraine then the three gulf states will be the next to fall, and perhaps they will. It would certainly be in Russia's interest to extend its defensive position to the shores of the Baltic sea. The question is whether NATO would intervene and risk a nuclear war with Russia.
I don't think the US would want to see Washington, and perhaps New York, become the 21st century's Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Russia, I think, would be less squeamish. The US chickened out when Ukraine asked for a “no-fly” zone.
NATO obligations would become irrelevant if nuclear war was in the offing.
Parliamentary representation is irrelevant if you are integrated through the military and trained, funded, supplied weapons by Nato and the US. This is pretty much standard for controling US vassal states world wide.
Yes but the US still believes it has exceptional status and therefore is able to make and break the rules in the rules based world. The easiest way to enforce this is to train extremists that have no compunction taking lives to be the armed forces of client states. This mode of operating is entirely independent of the cold war and has become orders of manitude greater since the fall of the Soviet Union as has been demonstrated in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Honduras… Unsurprisingly, Russia has no intention of joining this list. Nor China nor Iran. At some point, the formation of Contra like and Al Quaida like armies must be resisted. Russia has reached the point where they no longer can tolerate extremists concentrating on their border and pounding Russian speaking civilians with artillery until invasion is the only option.
My prediction that the War would end after about a month with a peace deal involving greater autonomy in the Donbas and likely the pre-war status quo in Crimea was incorrect. Putin seems to be in it for the long haul now and looks to be aiming to annex most of the East and South of Ukraine. This is obviously unacceptable to the Ukrainian government and given the current Western support for them I expect a majore counter-attack effort from them in the next 2 weeks which could decide the outcome of the war. It is either stalemate or the Russians will be pushed out from territory gained since the start of the war in Feb and possibly more.
"I think I would regard it as a preemptive defensive strike,"
Riiiigth….. So if the goal of this "preemptive defensive strike" was to guard against future NATO expansion, then that hasn't worked out so well has it, with both Finland and Sweden keen to join up now, and all the extra NATO forces in existing NATO regions, and NATO more enthusiastic and united than ever.
Rather than a “preemptive defensive strike”, it looks more like an own-goal to me.
It was not only NATO expansion, despite the West's broken promise made to Gorbachev not to expand NATO. There was also the threatened invasion of Crimea.
Factcheck. NATO never promised not to expand to other countries. According to the article, any comments in that respect were in the context of German re-unification, and that claimed promise couldn't have related to current expansion because it simply wasn't a possibility at the time due to the Warsaw pact was in existence then. Also, there was never any formal agreement with respect to non-expansion of NATO.
The fact check article rates the claims as mostly false.
It is my understanding that the dissolution of the Warsaw pact was the quid pro quo for the promise, so the implication would be that NATO would not extend into the Warsaw pact countries.
If it were such a fundamental change as dissolving the Warsaw pact, then this would have been based on a formal agreement, that would have been formally documented. In which case, I look forward to you linking your source to such a formal agreement between the parties (if it exists).
Besides, you have already admitted that an agreement was made. Only you claim it only applied to East Germany. Which of course doesn't make sense because (1) the Warsaw pact was dissolved and (2) East Germany would be part of NATO anyway, once the two Germanies were unified.
So basically if I pre-emptively punched you in the balls because I believe I am psychic and can read minds, that would be completely justified and not the act of an aggressor? Okaaayyyy. Well that's… Interesting? Special?
I don't think Western prospects were better. I think the Europeans didn't want them, but were reluctant to admit that because Uncle Sam wanted Ukraine away from Russia.
I understand it would be against the rules for a country to join NATO if it was involved in a border dispute with another country, as was the case with Ukraine.
Ahem. Looking at the UN breakdown it was 3,403 civilian deaths caused by both sides, which is of course appalling. The rest of that number is around 4400 Ukraine forces, 6517 DPR and LPR militias, and the US State Department throws in an unconfirmed 400-500 Russian military personnel.
Hmmmm. It's going on for a lot longer than a "strike". From the same article:
Critics said the speech skirted some uncomfortable realities that Putin is facing: With the campaign in Ukraine faltering, he has not asked Russians to accept sacrifices to weather the sanctions and diplomatic isolation.
He also left unanswered the question of whether and how Russia will marshal more forces in the face of significant losses.
Maybe you should stop playing apologist for a slimy, genocidal, kleptocrat petro-oligarch would-be Tsar like you're making some big ideological statement.
No idea. Either he copied & pasted unformatted text straight into TS or he somehow lost the paragraph marks. If I had had more time and had seen it in time I could have re-formatted the Post here.
I don't think there is any serious dispute that Russia is the aggressor. If the invasion and civilian death toll, and rapes and tortures performed by Russian troops were not enough to establish this, the relocation of captured civilians ought to ring alarm bells – a number of minorities were exterminated in this way under the Soviets, and it was the method employed in the Armenian Genocide. The US had their own version, the Trail of Tears.
Yet the hard left who – many of whom still seem to secretly admire Stalin – still wants us to believe that the 'Great Satan' is the sole source of all the world's evils.
I'm not sure I'd call them "hard left", maybe republicans manque. But most of the atrocities they damn the US for, are presently being performed by their world leader of choice. We cannot really call them hypocrites – there's no thought happening there – they merely repeat the cant of their team.
there's no thought happening there – they merely repeat the cant of their team.
I don't think the is any doubt about Ukraine's aggression directed at the Donbas region. That's not just the 'cant of anybody's team'. Nor is Ukraine's desire to repossess Crimea, which could only be achieved through an invasion.
Oh no, we don't agree Mikesh. You have merely demonstrated my point – you are incapable of forming an argument, and simply bleat RT talking points like the sheep from Animal Farm. "Four legs good" and so forth.
Were you capable of debate, rather than talking about the casualties of the Donbas insurgency in isolation, you would produce some plausible scheme whereby the Ukrainian victims of Russian imperialism in the Donbas differed from those you have mentioned. There are quite a few of them, and while you fail to account for them you give every appearance of being a bigot.
Oh no, we don't agree Mikesh. You have merely demonstrated my point – you are incapable of forming an argument, and simply bleat RT talking points like the sheep from Animal Farm. "Four legs good" and so forth.
I think if you look back over my comments you will find plenty of arguments, arguments which bear no resemblance to the ad hominem nonsense above.
Were you capable of debate, rather than talking about the casualties of the Donbas insurgency in isolation, you would produce some plausible scheme whereby the Ukrainian victims of Russian imperialism in the Donbas differed from those you have mentioned.
The Eastern Ukranians wanted a level of autonomy, after the illegal ousting of Yanukovich in 2014, and the fascist coup; and for that purpose wanted to set up a federal system within the Ukraine. That was the reason for the government attacks on their region. Russia came to their defense , which was natural enough given Eastern Ukraine was mostly ethnically Russian. I suspect that the Russians may have had ulterior motives – they wanted to forestall Ukraine's entry into NATO – but the Ukrainians’ barbaric attacks were probably reason enough.
The Eastern Ukranians wanted a level of autonomy, after the illegal ousting of Yanukovich in 2014, and the fascist coup;
Putin wanted an invasion platform and a destabilizing insurgency. The Eastern Ukrainians were not consulted, because Putin is an authoritarian – democracy has no value for him, he considers it a vice. The fascist coup was the Russian occupation, and Donbas residents have been forced to join the Russian invasion as cannon meat. (https://mg.co.za/opinion/2022-04-12-cannon-meat-the-men-of-combat-age-stuck-in-ukraine/)
It's not an ad hom either, merely an accurate description – the lackeys of a murderous despot have no business pretending to be progressives – away with you!
If you insist in employing ad hominems instead rational arguments, you cannot blame me for calling you out as an ignoramus who doesn't know what he is talking about.
[Please check & correct your user name in the next comment, thanks]
Oh right. Radio Free Europe. I could supply numerous Russian video interviews of very grateful Mariupol citizens rescued from Azov. Also eye wilness accounts of civilians being shot by Azov as they attempt to escape the city. Your Radio Free Europe anonymous accounts only serve to bolster propaganda. They are substantially funded by NED, an acknowledged arm of the CIA.
RFE has a fairly good reputation for the integrity of its material. Certainly they select stories that favour certain views, but they are not keen on publishing fabricated material – nor do they need to, as Russia is not at all averse to outraging world opinion.
Disagree with much of this article but wish to focus on a common western trope which I think is delusional , namely ,
" In the end, it will likely result in a military defeat for Russia and humiliation for Putin."
If Russia were to take their gloves off and engage in total war i.e total destruction of infrastructure , power , fuel , water , communications , sewerage , & food distribution which they can do at will with stand off missiles , and were they to change their R.O.E to disregard civilian casualties then how can any rational thinking adult believe that Ukraine is going to win this war ?
Open access notables Projected increase in the frequency of extremely active Atlantic hurricane seasons, Lopez et al., Science Advances:Future changes to the year-to-year swings between active and inactive North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) seasons have received little attention, yet may have great societal implications in areas prone to hurricane ...
Chatting in the supermarket this morning, I found I needed to lunge for the chicken drumsticks.Coping mechanisms: who hasn’t felt a greater need for them lately?When it all gets too much, I turn to demonstrating handy butchery hacks.It wasn’t that she’d said anything wrong, our friend, not at all. We ...
Back in 2022, RNZ took an in-depth look at the "Independent" Police Conduct Authority and its handling of killings by police. These are the most serious test of oversight, and you would expect the police's use of lethal force to receive the most severe scrutiny. But despite the police regularly ...
The Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti arrived at Parliament on Tuesday – the size is being debated but estimates range from 42,000 to 100,000. The Prime Minister is defending not attending due to some of the organisers being affiliated with Te Pāti Māori. The national gang patch ban came into force ...
I spoke to former Productivity Chair Nana this morning about the letter he and a group of other economists sent to PM Christopher Luxon to urge the Government to urgently suspend cuts to spending and investment for the sake of the economy, struggling businesses and the wellbeing of vulnerable ...
Unity on the Streets / Unity at the TableAfter the Hīkoi, all three right wing Coalition leaders came together to push the idea that the 42,000 - 50,000 + strong Hikoi was somehow less potent and brave, and more illegitimate than the energy and crowd displayed.Prime Minister Christopher Luxon 20-November: ...
This is a re-post from the Climate BrinkThe world is emitting over 40 gigatons of CO2 per year, contributing to an accelerating warming of the planet. The world needs to cut emissions rapidly to be remotely on track to meet our Paris Agreement goals of limiting warming to well-below 2C, and we ...
I wear my leather jacket like a great big hugRadiating charm - a living cloak of luckIt's the only concrete link with an absent friendIt's a symbol I can wear 'till we meet againOr it's a weight around my neck while the owner's freeBoth protector and reminder of mortalityIt's a ...
Nicola Willis’ budget cuts are under fire from economists for having no clear rationale and worsening the recession. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāKia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Thursday, November 21: The news at ...
National has appointed a new police commissioner. And he explicitly rejects policing by consent: Asked if he subscribed to policing by consent, he said he did not. “I don’t talk about policing by consent. I talk about trust and confidence, and it is fundamentally important that the police have ...
David Horatio Waterbed SeymourFringe politician and dweeb transformed successfully by ThinkTank money into a well-oiled soundbite robot.Currently programmed to say: Equal rights for all New Zealanders Equal rights for all New Zealanders Equal rights for all New Zealanders Was previously programmed to say:I am a proud libertarian andI am a ...
NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi President Richard Wagstaff is calling on the Government to deliver an economic and industrial strategy for regional manufacturing, rather than just expressing sympathy for job losses, following the announced closure of Kinleith mill in Tokoroa. “The closure Kinleith mill in Tokoroa is not just devastating for ...
One in four Kiwi children live in households where food runs out often or sometimes. Photo: Getty ImagesKia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Wednesday, November 20: The lead: The official annual Health Survey found sharp ...
This guest post by Tim Adriaansen, an advocate for accessibility and sustainable transport, originally published on LinkedIn and cross posted here with permission. People prefer cars, right? Probably not. Here’s why. Granted, most people in English-speaking countries use a car to get around. This simple reality underpins our transport ...
Neither Wellington nor Parliament has ever seen anything like it before. The Police said there were more than 40,000 but however many there were, yesterday’s Hikoi to Parliament was a monumental event. It was almost three times the Foreshore and Seabed martch of 2004 and many,many times bigger than ...
The euphoria from yesterday’s hikoi may be transitory, but is no less valuable for that. It is pretty rare for the left to feel itself to be in the overwhelming majority, and speaking as the voice of the people. Lest that momentum be lost, the organisers will no doubt be ...
Mr David Seymour crawling up to the ceilingThe sun don't shine the sun don't shine the sun don't shine at allMamma Pappa say you should go to school, I don't know what forNow that I've grown up and seen the world and all its liesSong: Southside of Bombay"Ake, ake, ake" ...
The Justice Committee has called for submissions on National's racist and constitutionally radical Principles of the Treaty of Waitangi Bill. Submissions can be made at the link above or by post, and are due by Tuesday, 7 January 2025. But I'd get in quick, in case National grows a spine ...
All happy families are alike; each unhappy family has a Drunk Uncle Kevin in there somewhere. If your Kevin is anything like the ones I know, he was getting along happily enough without having to think too much about the Treaty Principles Bill apart from bloody good job, onya guys ...
Like everyone else (everyone who wasn't there, anyway), I've spent the morning watching the hikoi march on Parliament. The pictures are astounding: parliament grounds and the surrounding streets are full, and there are still people backed up along Lambton Quay. The police are estimating 35,000 people, and that's a floor ...
The CEOs of Westpac NZ and Kiwibank say Facebook is rife with fraud but reporting scam ads gets no response. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāKia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Tuesday, November 19: The ...
A better world isn’t just possible, it’s desirable. And that’s how we should frame a lot of our conversations around making a greater Auckland. As an example take urban climate action. A climate friendly Auckland: Is free from congestion Enables people to travel how they choose Is filled with ...
Hi,It’s AMA time again — so anything that’s on your mind that you wanna ask, ask away in the comments. This is one of my favourite things to do with full Webworm members, who are the heart of this community of Worms. Journalism? Documentary making? Short Poppies? Cats? Podcasting? What ...
There were urgent moves yesterday at Parliament to try and defuse the tension building up over ACT’s Treaty Principles Bill. The Bill’s author, ACT leader David Seymour, told reporters that he understood the Justice Select Committee met yesterday to discuss how long it should take to consider submissions on the ...
This morning I discovered a post I’d written 10-11 months ago, lamenting how New Zealand’s ACT Party and their foreign and local surrogates would play out anti-Māori propaganda - which I believe they have long prepared for.At the time, it was a plea for action and readiness from my fellow ...
Politicians like to bang on all about the need to heal society’s racial/economic divisions, but in their actions they’re more keen on stoking those divisions, with the Treaty Principles Bill being the classic example. The Bill seeks to dilute the Crown’s responsibilities to Māori at the same time as it ...
Nearly two weeks on from the US election, and we are still mentally wrangling with the results. How did this happen? Which voter demographics went where? What did the Democrats do wrong? Meanwhile here in New Zealand, we’re left wondering how this will apply to us and what this means ...
I appreciate that A Phuulish Fellow has been fairly quiet recently. That’s a combination of two things – comparatively little in the way of relevant material to discuss (at least until The War of the Rohirrim comes out next month), and my general work on The Secret Non-Fiction Writing Project. ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Governments around the world face a conundrum. Virtually none are on track to meet their Paris climate commitments. That includes the United States, which committed to cut its emissions at least 50% below 2005 levels by 2030 but is only on track for 32-43% cuts ...
Too Big To Fail: Forty-three years after the 1981 Springbok Tour protests, Maori defenders of te Tiriti, by their own efforts, and using their own resources, are poised to descend on the capital with upwards of 100,000 followers at their back, and no force in front of them even remotely ...
The era of neoliberalism has been destructive on so many levels, with a huge growth in wealth and privilege for the one percent. A hollowing out of the state; fraying of the safety net; inadequate government investment in infrastructure; and continued environmental degradation has resulted in damage on a vast ...
In a manner of speakingI just want to sayThat I could never forget the wayYou told me everythingBy saying nothingOh, give me the wordsGive me the wordsThat tell me nothingOh, give me the wordsGive me the wordsThat tell me everythingSongwriter: Winston TongNext Tuesday, the subscription price for Nick’s Kōrero will ...
The NZNO have announced a nationwide strike for December over its pay dispute with Health NZ, who have put a 1 per cent cap on pay rises. The Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti and Treaty Principles Bill remain front and centre in the media, with the impacts of the Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke-led ...
The divisive Treaty Principles Bill is not just a risk for the National Party, it’s a risk to civil order and unity, warns a National Party grandee. Photo: Getty ImagesKia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on ...
This post was originally published on Linked In by Nicolas Reid. It is republished here with permission. Auckland is now just a year or so away from having the keystone of its urban rail network complete. As I wrote about here, the City Rail Link will be a literal game changer for ...
If ACT leader David Seymour intended the Treaty Principles Bill to drive a wedge into National’s support base, he may well already be succeeding. By midnight on Thursday after the Maori Party haka in Parliament, National MPs were being deluged with emails and messages from their members calling them out ...
A listing of 33 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, November 10, 2024 thru Sat, November 16, 2024. Story of the week Our Story of the Week is completely "meta" (no, not that Meta). It's about our exploring how ...
..Thanks for reading Frankly Speaking ! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.Self-appointed “Bishop” and proto-fascist, Brian Tamaki was at it again on 16 November, blocking Auckland’s southern motorway, SH1.This time, the target of his ire wasn’t the Civil Unions Act; covid lock-downs; mask mandates; or ...
I cannot stop grabbing people by the lapels, or shoulders, or similar, and raving at them about the tiny miracles in my ears.I can hear again! There could not be a more satisfied customer in all the world.In a noisy cafe I am even catching words that Karren cannot, she ...
Take the baitYou pay the priceIt's much too lateFor good adviceYou know and I know that our good things' throughBecause there's consequences for what we doConsequences for me and youWriters: Kevin Robert Hayes, David Nagier, Bonnie Adele Hayes.Fallout from the first readingOne News began last night by saying that tens ...
Hi,If I was to accurately sum up my mental state over the week, I’d just say that I got a huge fright from my own shadow.I’d nipped out for an 11pm neighborhood stroll, just to calm down after a day of stress and screens. The Cure and Fazerdaze’s new record ...
The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
On Tuesday, sick of government stonewalling, the Waitangi Tribunal issued a rare court order, ordering the Minister of Health to release unredacted documents within 48 hours showing its reasoning for disestablishing Te Aka Whai Ora, the Māori Health Authority. The government's response to the lawful order of a court? Yeah, ...
Yesterday, under cover the the biggest political fight of the year, National quietly - covertly, even - introduced anti-foreign interference legislation. The bill is the product of a years-long work-program aimed at countering shit like this and this, and there's unquestionably a need to do something to counter foreign states' ...
A few months ago, I was in an audience watching a Haka-Kapa and as I watched children dance and sing and sway and shout and beat, I couldn’t help but think “The Haka represents the best of us.”Yes, yes - there will be a thousand voices that rush forth to ...
St Mary’s Bay housing left hanging: Climate risk is systemically underestimated in the climate scenarios used by central banks, and a new report warns 10,000 houses are set to become uninsurable in Aotearoa. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāLong stories short, here’s the top six news items of note in ...
One of the major problems the Government has in implementing its ‘going for housing growth’ strategy is that it isn’t giving much funding help to councils. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāKia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and ...
The Treaty Principles Bill continues to dominate political news, with it passing its first reading in the House. Parliament was briefly suspended and Te Pāti Māori MP Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke suspended for 24 hours after leading a haka that was joined by opposition MPs and the public in the gallery. Willie ...
Happy Friday, welcome to another round-up of interesting stories about what’s happening in Auckland and other cities. Feel free to add your links in the comments! This post, like all our work, is brought to you by a largely volunteer crew and made possible by generous donations from our readers ...
And screamingAre we we are, are we we are the waitingAnd screamingAre we we are, are we we are the waitingForget me nots, second thoughts live in isolationHeads or tails and fairy tales in my mindAre we we are, are we we are the waiting unknownThe rage and love, the ...
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts & talking about the week’s news with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent on the latest climate news, including from COP29 this week; on the US Presidential elections, Israel vs Gaza/Iran/Lebanon, Ukraine/Nato vs Russia/North ...
Only two months ago, Nicola Willis had to step in to stop Health New Zealand cutting tea and toast for post-birth parents, and now Lester Levy is riding to the rescue with a welcome message for all: our health workers can once again drink Milo, and will no longer need ...
Day One of the Treaty Principles Bill…and everyone got what they wanted, and did what they liked. Heated words were exchanged. Culturally appropriate acts of outrage were performed. David Seymour got to play the victim card. Willie Jackson got kicked out of class. A comically red-faced Mr Speaker bellowed “Order, ...
Open access notables Microbial solutions must be deployed against climate catastrophe, Peixoto et al., Nature Communications [comment]:The climate crisis is escalating. A multitude of microbe-based solutions have been proposed, and these technologies hold great promise and could be deployed along with other climate mitigation strategies. However, these solutions have ...
You can pay a great deal of money for the services of a KC. So just what would some peerless legal writing from 40 or so of them be worth, do you reckon?Priceless, that’s what. It’s not even the half of it, but this is my favourite part of the ...
The government's Treaty Principles Bill is up for its first reading today - bought forward in a rush in a desperate effort to avoid the hikoi which is currently marching on Wellington. But the Prime Minister won’t be there for it – he’s literally running away to Peru! But he ...
Good morning, and I’m sorry I’ve been away for a couple of days.I’ve been focusing on the Hikoi, and also testing out sentiment on the Treaty Principles Bill. It’s complicated, and the Treaty Principles Bill will be debated in the House today. The Government’s own lawyers have told them the ...
NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi President Richard Wagstaff is calling on the Government to vote down an ACT Party Members Bill that would undermine workers’ rights by making it easier for employers to fire workers. Last week ACT MP Laura Trask’s Employment Relations (Termination of Employment by Agreement) Amendment Bill was ...
As the weight of the world Hangs on your shoulders The weight of the world Starts to take over again And over again All that you once loved, now you hate So slowly relearn how to meditate To have and to hold And never let go Can you feel it ...
The Treaty Principles Bill is set to have its First Reading in the House today, as the Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti continues. More than 40 KCs have written to the Prime Minister and Attorney-General outlining their “grave concerns” about the substance of the Treaty Principles Bill, while an academic and ...
As we absorb the news of Trump's victory in the US Presidential election, here’s a wrap compiled just before the result of what it might mean for climate action: The UN Secretary General says the prospective departure of the United States would cripple the Paris Agreement, likening it to the ...
Patrick Reynolds is deputy chair of the City Centre Advisory Panel. The header image is from Walthamstow, London The city centre now has a few stretches of street where the space has been repurposed to a people and place focused design from full time traffic use. These are a great ...
As the Hikoi against it swells into the tens of thousands, KCs call on National to kill off ACT’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. Photo: Getty ImagesKia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Thursday, November 14: The ...
The big question hovering over the Select Committee Inquiry into banking is what the Government will do with its findings. If yesterday’s hearing is anything to go by there is a tidal wave of discontent about the four big Australian Banks crashing through the Committee which may force it to ...
In April 2024 we announced the (renewed) collaboration between Gigafact and Skeptical Science to create fact briefs, short but credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. Our initial plan had been to publish one fact brief per week on Saturdays but - as happens ...
Between 1950 and 1993 the New Zealand government tortured and abused up to 250,000 children in residential care facilities. Yesterday, following formal findings from a royal commission, it finally apologised for that abuse. The next step is redress and restitution - compensating the surviving victims for the appalling harm they ...
Back onto the harbour bridge I go, my happy place for protesting.And it truly is a happy place, this day.Protests can bristle a lot, but this one is all heart. The WOMAD of protest marches. Families are safe and happy and a little one is pushing the trolley her older ...
Kia mau ra, kia mau raKi te mana motuhakeMe te arohaHold fast, hold fastTo your sovereigntyAnd to love and compassionLyrics: Hīrini Melbourne. “Ngā Iwi E passionately calls for unity among the peoples of the Pacific, a cause deeply cherished by Melbourne himself.”I sat at my desk this morning and thought ...
The Government has passed legislation to remove agriculture from the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) while Aotearoa’s reputation on climate action plummets. ...
As legislation to set up boot camps passed its first reading, the Green Party urged the Government to abandon this failed policy experiment for the good of our rangatahi. ...
The Ministry of Health has today released an evidence brief regarding the use of puberty blockers in gender-affirming healthcare, amid moves by the government to limit access. ...
Louise Upston has revealed her diminished vision for vulnerable youth against a backdrop of snubbed advice, scrapped priorities, shifted goal posts and thousands more children projected to fall into poverty. ...
National Government’s backward-looking climate policy has seen New Zealand fall seven places on the Climate Change Performance Index to 41 out of 63 countries measured. ...
When the Government says it has reduced the number of people in emergency housing, what it means is it is stopping people from accessing it in the first place. ...
The Government is turning its back on children by not only weakening child poverty reduction targets, but also removing child mental wellbeing as a priority focus in their Child and Youth Wellbeing Strategy. ...
A group of prominent economists has released an open letter to the Government, raising grave concerns about the far-reaching consequences of its fiscal policy. ...
Parliamentarians from Australia, Canada and New Zealand have written an open letter to their respective Prime Ministers calling on them to recognise Palestine. ...
Te Whatu Ora’s bill for contracting and consulting staff has ballooned by nearly 20 percent under the National Government, breaking a promise they made during the election campaign to cut contractors. ...
Te Tiriti o Waitangi is our country’s founding document. It forms the basis of the relationship between Māori and the Crown – and the Aotearoa New Zealand we live in today. ...
As the hīkoi to Parliament continues, Labour has sent an open letter to Prime Minister Christopher Luxon in a last-ditch attempt to get him to kill the Treaty Principles Bill. ...
Labour joins with the Government in unreservedly apologising for the abuse, neglect and trauma including torture in state and faith-based care and for ignoring the voices of survivors for too long. ...
The Green Party is alarmed by the Government’s move to exclude a journalist from covering this week’s apology for the survivors of abuse in state and faith-based care. ...
For tomorrow’s apology to survivors of abuse in state and faith-based care to hold any water, the Government must not pursue the same policies that drove the abuse in the first place. ...
Concerns about the tobacco industry’s ability to interfere in government policy making remain, despite the inability of the Office of the Auditor-General to investigate the Government’s decision to halve the excise tax on heated tobacco products. ...
Break out the punchlines and dust off your meme folder: Green Party MP Kahurangi Carter’s Copyright (Parody and Satire) Amendment Bill was pulled from the Ballot yesterday. ...
Kua hinga te manawa kairākau o Te Rua Tekau Ma Waru Tiwhatiwha te po! Kakarauru i te po! Ka rapuhia kei hea koe kua riro! Haere e te Ika a Whiro ki o tini hoa kua ngaro atu ki te Pō ...
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...
The Deputy Prime Minister should apologise to the public servant he named and blamed for something they did not do, and for misusing the rules of Parliament. ...
The Government is taking action to ensure Southland farmers and growers are not affected by unreasonable regional farm plan deadlines, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds and Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard say.“Cabinet has agreed to provide more time for farmers and growers to comply with regional rules ...
The Oranga Tamariki (Responding to Serious Youth Offending) Bill had its first reading at Parliament today. The Bill reaffirms the Government’s commitment to crack down on serious youth offending, Minister for Children Karen Chhour says. “In recent years we have seen an unacceptable spike in youth offending. “This Bill makes ...
Fairer, more sensible rules about managing earthquake risks are a step closer with the passing of legislation and the appointment of an independent chair to provide expert advice, Minister for Building and Construction Chris Penk says. “The Government is committed to reinvigorating our cities and regions to support economic growth, ...
People in Northland and Auckland will benefit from a new machine for cancer treatment installed at the Regional Cancer and Blood Service at Auckland City Hospital. The MV5 linear accelerator, or LINAC machine, officially opened today targets cancer tumours with pinpoint accuracy. Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says this new, ...
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will travel to Europe for high-level talks with France, Germany and the United Kingdom next week. "Since taking office almost a year ago, the Coalition Government has emphasised the importance we place on New Zealand's traditional and likeminded diplomatic and ...
Police have made their first arrests under the new gang patch legislation, with two gang members arrested, says Police Minister Mark Mitchell. “Just before 11 this morning, Police in Wairoa apprehended a gang member for wearing a patch to the supermarket. He has been arrested and will now face enforcement ...
The Government is proposing two major changes to name suppression laws that will put the views of victims of sexual violence first, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “We are committed to restoring law and order and these two proposed changes will help ensure the victims of crime are put at ...
Cabinet has agreed to invite all regions to submit proposals for Regional Deals between central and local government that drive economic growth and deliver the infrastructure our country needs, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop say. Inviting all regions to propose a Regional Deal that boosts ...
One of the ten young men selected to participate in the Military-Style Academy Pilot has allegedly reoffended. Children’s Minister Karen Chhour is disappointed but says it would be naïve to think that none of these young men would reoffend. “I’m saddened that this young person has not taken this opportunity ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour says that school attendance is continuing to rise. In Term 3 of 2024 51.3 per cent of students attended school regularly, an increase of 5.3 percentage points from 46 per cent in Term 3 of 2023. “This Government has prioritised student attendance and it is ...
Ensuring New Zealand is the best place in the world for children and young people is the vision at the heart of the Government’s new Child and Youth Strategy, Child Poverty Reduction Minister Louise Upston says. “Childhood represents a huge opportunity to set people on a positive path towards living ...
The Government is reinstating the trade of livestock exports by sea while ensuring the highest standards of animal welfare, says Associate Minister of Agriculture Andrew Hoggard.“The Government will introduce legislation changes to reinstate the trade, enhance oversight, and strengthen requirements for exporters to identify risks and manage the welfare of ...
Tēnā koutou katoa – it is a pleasure to be here today. I would like to begin by acknowledging the important leadership role you all play in ensuring a quality health system New Zealanders can trust. There is enormous clinical expertise in this room covering a wide range of disciplines. ...
Tēnā koutou katoa. Mr President, Excellencies, Delegates. New Zealand, and all nations represented here today, are already dealing with the impacts of climate change. Our households, businesses, and economies are bearing the costs of its effects. The choices we make now will shape the severity of these impacts for generations ...
The Government has released its second Quarterly Investment Report (QIR) which shows substantial work still to be done by agencies to improve investment reporting and meet the Government’s expectations, Infrastructure and Acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “New Zealand has significant infrastructure and investment needs. The Government is determined to get ...
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced New Zealand will contribute NZ$10 million to the new Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage while at the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan. “New Zealand is joining the global effort to address the significant challenge of responding to ...
The free ride for gangs is over when the clock strikes midnight tonight, with tough new laws officially coming into effect, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith and Police Minister Mark Mitchell say. “Gang patches will no longer be able to be worn in public. To earn the right to wear a ...
The Government is welcoming the decision by the Local Government Funding Agency to increase access to financing tools for fast growing councils to support greater investment in critical infrastructure, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown says.“Communities across the country are facing an infrastructure deficit and significant population growth is projected in ...
The Government has revealed that over the past three years, the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) has spent an eyewatering $786 million of taxpayers’ money on road cones and temporary traffic management (TTM), Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“When I became Minister, I was surprised to learn that that NZTA did ...
Legislation that will double the financial jurisdiction of the Disputes Tribunal from $30,000 to $60,000 has passed first reading in Parliament today, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith. “We need to improve court timeliness and access to justice so that Kiwis and get on with their lives. Court delays affect everyone, the ...
Legislation that will specifically criminalise foreign interference and strengthen espionage offences has passed first reading in Parliament today, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “It is normal and appropriate for states to interact and work to influence one another. This encourages cooperation and can have mutually beneficial outcomes. “However, the reality ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed news that the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) Board has approved funding towards pre-implementation and early works on the State Highway 1 (SH1) Belfast to Pegasus Motorway and Woodend Bypass Road of National Significance (RoNS). “Reaching this significant milestone is a reflection of our Government’s ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says findings from the annual Health Survey highlight the need to continue driving better health outcomes for New Zealanders. The New Zealand Health Survey is an annual snapshot of key metrics measured from July 2023 – July 2024. Findings released this morning include: In 2023/24, ...
A renewed effort to get people to quit smoking will build on what has worked to date and target the groups who most need support, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello said today. “The latest New Zealand Health Survey results show the daily smoking rate at 6.9 per cent and we ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters has announced four new diplomatic appointments. “Our diplomats play an important role in ensuring New Zealand’s interests are maintained and enhanced across the world,” Mr Peters says. “It is a pleasure to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the Ministry of Foreign ...
Regulation Minister David Seymour has today announced the next steps in the Government’s plan improve the quality of regulation by opening consultation on a proposed Regulatory Standards Bill. “New Zealand's low wages can be blamed on low productivity, and low productivity can be blamed on poor regulation,” says Mr Seymour. ...
Minister for Regulation David Seymour has today announced that the Ministry for Regulation’s Red Tape Tipline is now live. “We want to hear about your red tape horror stories. From today, New Zealanders will have a say on how they are regulated through an online portal,” says Mr Seymour. The ...
The Minister for Youth Matt Doocey has today announced the eleventh Youth Parliament will be taking place in 2025. “Youth Parliament offers a unique youth development opportunity to young people from across New Zealand to experience the political process and learn about how government works,” says Mr Doocey. “The two-day ...
After nearly a year in Government, Kiwis have seen significant change across law and order with promising early results shown across some Police statistics, says Police Minister Mark Mitchell. “In August 2023, I told New Zealanders that if they had not started to see a change in public safety within ...
With the launch of Fraud Awareness Week, the Government is committing to new coordination efforts across industry and government to combat online scams, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Online financial scams are a growing problem for New Zealand. New data released today shows that Kiwis lost nearly ...
Minister for Children Karen Chhour will consider the recommendations made by the Social Services and Community Committee in its report back to Parliament on the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill. “I want to thank the people who made submissions and those who appeared before the committee in ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins will this week attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus in Vientiane, Laos. “We need to take every opportunity to engage with our international partners, given the increasingly unstable geo-political situation,” Ms Collins says. “New Zealand has a long-standing commitment to this ...
The Minister for the Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence, Karen Chhour, was on hand to wish riders well at the start of the North Island leg of the White Ribbon Ride in Whakatāne this morning. The ride helps mark the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women, ...
Construction on the next stage of the SH1 Papakura to Drury project will begin early next month, with the contract for works awarded to Fulton Hogan, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. "SH1 Papakura to Drury is a key project that will drive economic growth and productivity, reduce congestion, and enable people ...
Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay has signed a pioneering trade agreement that prioritises New Zealand’s sustainable exports at a ceremony during APEC in Peru today. “The Agreement on Trade and Sustainability (ACCTS), between Costa Rica, Iceland, and Switzerland was concluded in July of this year and opens up significant ...
Five new Aquaculture Settlement Areas will help ensure Ngāi Tahu shares in the opportunities aquaculture offers for Southland’s economy, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. “The Aquaculture Settlement Areas (ASAs) I’m announcing today set aside space so the Crown and Ngāi Tahu can assess their potential for aquaculture development. ...
The terms of reference for a review of the performance of the electricity market have been released. The review, initiated by the Coalition Government during the power crisis in winter will look at whether current regulations and market design support economic growth and access to reliable and affordable electricity, Energy Minister ...
Kia ora koutou katoa. Nau mai, haere mai, piki mai. Ki te mihi atu ahau, ki te manwhenua nei, Te Atiawa, Ngāti toa rangatira, tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou katoa. Thank you, Andy, for your introduction. Let me acknowledge you as the new Chief Executive of the Social Investment ...
Minister of State for Trade Nicola Grigg has travelled to Australia to attend the PACER Plus Ministers Meeting in Brisbane. “Trade plays a critical role in driving employment, economic growth, and improving the standards of living in the Pacific Region. The Government is strongly committed to supporting Pacific Island countries ...
Toitū te taiao – Our environment endures The Government is consulting on proposals to modernise New Zealand’s conservation management system, aiming to protect relevant natural areas while supporting sustainable growth in tourism and regional economies, Conservation Minister Tama Potaka says. “Today, the Department of Conservation – Te Papa Atawhai is ...
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Analysis - The diversity of voices during the hīkoi was noticeable - from tangata moana to young immigrants to elderly Pākehā from the South Island. ...
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Women’s Rights Party Co-leader Jill Ovens says the Ministry has put New Zealand children at risk by continuing to allow “off-label” prescribing of puberty blockers at far higher rates than other similar countries. ...
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The United States has vetoed a UN Security Council ceasefire resolution — for the fourth time — in Israel’s war on Gaza, while Hezbollah demands a complete ceasefire and “protection of Lebanon’s sovereignty” in any deal with Israel. Amid the death and devastation, Joe Hendren reflects on his time in ...
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The Russian invasion of Ukraine – an act of aggression 
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This war needs to end yesterday and never would have started but for the destructive tentacles of the USA .Negotiation not more weapons .Allowing america to add another notch to their failed state belt could be the last act of a doomed planet .
So basically your position is that Ukraine deserved it because her skirt was too short and she was flirting with other boys? Is that the gist?
populuxe1 – wtf?
But yes Ukraine is getting what they deserve. Zelenski and his war machine have had years to sort this out. Well they are getting sorted now and there's fuck all the yanks can actually do about it. I hope Bidens wardogs lose to Trump in the next election as a blowback for funding this madness.
The Ukraine civilians are the big losers, and don't deserve any of this,
I want NZ to send aid only to the civilians only. Zelenski and his army can go to hell, and they certainly are!
Yup – her skirt was too short. Musta been gagging for it.
I want what he's smoking.
I guess aside from the tiny inconvenient fact that Ukraine did not attack Russian territory, and indeed gave up its nuclear arsenal to be less of a threat. We will probably also have to ignore the utter absurdity of any country casually attacking a country with a nuclear arsenal like Russia.
I suppose you'd prefer it if the Russian forces just assaulted and murdered Ukrainian civilians while the Ukraine military did nothing? What a curious mind you have.
I think they were on the point of invading Crimea, which of course is part of Russia. There was also the matter of the attacks on Donbass etc. which was mostly populated by ethnic Russians.
There is zero evidence that Ukraine was going to send troops to or attack the ukraine in any manner whatsoever.
The fighting/skirmishes in the Donbas region of Ukraine has been going on for somet time why did Putin decide to attack now and why did he try to seize control of the entire country and murder thousands nowhere near the Donbas region ?
Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries on earth.
Zelensky an ex comic/actor is playing the biggest role in his life….the Pandora papers show his pockets are…bulging.
There is no democracy in Ukraine,and the average wage is $400 a month..hardly nirvana.
Ukraine has outlawed speaking Russian,1 of the top 10 spoken languages in…the world.
This war is an avoidable..tragedy.
Ukraine has not outlawed the speaking of Russians. Zelensky is a native Russian speaker so why would he outlaw it? You are making up facts.
This I found on Quora…
'They banned education in Russian.
They banned the ability to speak Russian at school (teachers can be fired for this).
They banned the ability to speak Russian at work (you can be fined or fired for this).
They banned the ability to speak Russian for politics (even politics like the president can’t speak Russian)
Also cinema, theater, excursions, etc, etc.
You can’t even sign in Russian in public in some cities like Lviv.
'It is allowed to speak Russian in private but illegal to provide services in Russian unless specifically asked by customer. So, people in absolutely russian–speaking cities obliged to address customers in ukrainian because they can be fined if some ukrainian from Western Ukraine complains.'
So its not totally banned as you say.
It looks very much like the Ukranians were looking to protect and promote their cultural language. If it was Te Reo we were talking about you would be all for it.
What an idiotic comparison! Te Reo is adding a language to include another culture. Ukraine deleted Russian to persecute a large sector of their population. Estimated native speakers of Russian in Ukraine are 40%!
It is not illegal to provide services in Russian. The law you are referring to states that the service must be made available in Ukrainian UNLESS the customer requests otherwise. In this regard it is similar to what happens in Quebec with French. I disagree with the policy but it is not the same as making speaking another language illegal as you suggest.
Sorry, but you really are very wrong. There is ample evidence from the OSCE that artillery fire from the Ukraine side into Donbass increased by a factor of 30 in the days before the 24th starting on the 16th. Biden knew this barrage had begun when he asserted an imminent invasion and that Putin was already under pressure to take seriously the hell that was being created for Russian speakers in Ukraine
I understand Putin tried over and over again to get Zelenskyy to the negotiating table, but Zelenskyy refused. The invasion was probably the last straw.
Apparently there were movements of crack troops towards Donbas just prior to the invasion. Those could have been preparation for a concerted attack on Donetsk, or possibly to support an invasion of Crimea; ie to cut off a possible counterattack from the East.
Ukraine is known to have a policy of recovering Crimea
POP just a point of fact,they were never Ukraine's nukes.go sit in the corner.
They were Ukraine's nukes the moment the Soviet Union dissolved on 26 December 1991. Someone should have been more careful where they left their toys.
Given that nukes were supplied by the Soviets, there is no implication that Ukraine was entitled to hold on to them once the Soviet Union ceased to exist. The same would apply to Ukraine’s "ownership" of Crimea.
This would be the same Crimea transferred to the Ukraine SSR on the authority of the Supreme Soviet on 19 February 1954 would it?
Now I'm no fancy book-learning diplomat or international lawyer, but given no agreement was ratified transferring either back to Russia with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and Ukraine wasn't a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, there is no case to answer.
When the assignment was made in 1954, I don't think it was envisaged that Crimea would ever fall into the hands of the West. One would suppose that that was never part of the deal. Clearly, with Ukraine moving Westwards, Crimea should have reverted to Russian control.
"Fall into the hands of the West"
It's fascinating watching someone condemning Western economic imperialism while quite brazenly defending Russian neo-imperial rechavism. It really is.
As "fascinating" as it may be to watch, I still consider it sensible for Russia to defend itself against Western Imperialism.
The occasional paragraph would make this easier to read and digest!
Grammarly is an app for that
I echo the comment about paragraphs. Perhaps you could edit this and add a few appropriate paragraphs to make reading a bit easier.
I think this conflict may not last as long as what people think.
Firstly, Russia may well start running low on ammo soon. There have been a number of well publicised attacks on Russian ammo dumps, including in the major Russian staging area of Belgorod. But more importantly, there has just been a huge fire at a major weapons factory in Perm, Russia. This factory manufactures rockets, missiles, and shells used in the Russian war effort. I understand it is the second largest in Russia.
Fires and other sabotage activity in the Belgorod region are relatively close to Ukraine, and are likely due to Ukrainian attacks. But there have been a lot of fires in other key industries well outside of Ukrainian artillery or missile range, and much deeper into Russia. So, it could potentially be that Russian dissidents themselves are attacking some of this infrastructure.
So, this type of activity is going to have an effect on the ability for Russians to resupply their forces with ammunition. Compounding this are the effect of sanctions since many Russian complex military systems and weapons rely on electronics from the US and other western nations meaning the Russians are trying to find work-arounds to get these products.
Secondly, however, on the Ukrainian side of the equation, the Ukrainians are already causing the Russians a lot of trouble before the heavy weapons on the field have even arrived. Once the Ukrainians have these heavy weapons, they will have an endless supply of western ammunition.
Also, the western artillery being provided has longer range than the Russian artillery. That, combined with the counter-battery radar being supplied by the west, will help the Ukrainians accurately target the Russian artillery.
So, there will soon likely be a situation where Russia is struggling for ammunition, and Ukraine is able to destroy the Russian artillery that is the cornerstone of the Russian military war method.
Therefore, I expect within the next month or so that the Ukrainians will be able to start pushing the Russians back out of Ukraine.
Well Nancy Pelosi and her esteemed delegation were/are in the Ukraine.
They have inspiring messages…'we're in it to…win….it'!…and we'll be here til the ..end.
Not seen much dialogue about a negotiated peace settlement from…the U.S.
They are ramping up the supply of 'bullets' for the Ukraine to fire amid the death and…destruction however.
I think the Russians scuppered any hope of a peace deal due to all the war crimes they committed in Bucha, and the fact that they seem intent on erasing the Ukrainian nation.
Why would Ukraine be interested in a peace deal at all, especially when they see they have the chance to push the Russians right out of Ukraine.
One of the first things I think the Ukrainians will do once they have the right equipment from the west is to hit the Crimean bridge that connects Russia to Crimea. This would create a huge problem for the Russians, and as you can see from the article, not something they would be very happy about.
Why would Ukraine be interested in a peace deal at all, especially when they see they have the chance to push the Russians right out of Ukraine.
I think it is the Americans who are trying to push the Russians out of Ukraine, using the Ukranians as dupes. They have been trying since around 2014.
Portraying the Ukrainian people as unwilling dupes of the west is errant nonsense.
Their remembered history of russian/soviet behaviour over the last century combined with they fierce resistance to the russian invasion overwhelming supported by the majority of their population combined with the exodus of millions of civilians to western aligned countries suggests you are the dupe not the ukrainian people.
Mikesh has it about right. It has taken huge amounts of money thrown at extremists by the US in their usual way to create the current situation. 2014 was a US manufactured coup that gave Nato access to fanatics that could be trained and nurtured. Even at the point of the election of Zelenski, the people of Ukraine rejected the obvious extremism of Poroshenko. Zelenski was elected as the outsider that pledged to act on the minsk accords which would have ended hostilities in Donbass and Luhansk
Sure, Yanukovych's blatant corruption couldn't possibly have had anything to do with Euromaidan gaining popularity. Yes, they had money from Washington. Yanukovych was in the pocket of Moscow, but apparently that's OK, and we'll just ignore those inconvenient democratic elections since then.
Well, if corruption is the only metric, Zelenski has quite a large footprint in the pandora papers. As for the elections, he had overwhelming support from the Russian speaking LDNR on the promise of following through on the Minsk agreements. As the link shows, he sold out.
It's not the only metric. There's always good old blood on the ground and civilian death tolls. You just really hate the idea of Ukrainians having any agency.
I'm pretty sure the issue with the Euromaidan was the desire to "do a deal with Europe. Hence the name Euromaidan. the illegal coup which ousted Yanukovich was occasioned by his accepting an economics assistance deal from Russia, when Europe appeared to dragging the chain.
Rather amusing given Russia was hardly in a position to give economic assistance to anyone. Why is it that you can't condemn US militarism without playing apologist for Putin. I can. It's easy. US and Russian imperialism are both bad. See? Easy.
Russia has been giving economic assistance to numerous 3rd world countries for..decades…real aid…not debt bearing aid that is paid to western corporations.
Russia gives SFA – $8 per capita.
We give $90.75 and Norway $812.58.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_development_aid_country_donors
Funny how it seems to go hand in hand with recognising places like Abkhazia and South Ossetia though…
Russia’s foreign aid re-emerges (aiddata.org)
' The first table is based on official development assistance (ODA) figures published by the OECD for members of its Development Assistance Committee (DAC).
The West call creating debt=aid.
The 'aid' gets paid to western corporations…and the recipient country gets landed with the interest and principal.When they default it becomes a lever to remainder..resources.
As it happens Russia gave 15 billion dollars (I think that was the amount) in 2014, with no strings attached. This was what riled the Euromaidan protesters. Some people just don't know when they're well off. Apparently they'd have preferred a much smaller conditional deal from the Europeans.
Not unwilling dupes. Just dupes. Though I suspect they may have been less willing had Trump been reelected.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/05/ukraines-army-is-in-very-bad-state-more-fighting-will-only-destroy-it.html#more
Ukraine is very brave fighting on behalf of the USA.
The Ukrainian military still has a large pool of military aged and trained personnel to draw reinforcements from as a result of the mobilisation orders issued at the start of the war and is receiving massive amounts of military equipment from Western nations. Russia on the other hand is depleting it's professional military wing and is restricted from replenishing the troops in Ukraine with the decision not to declare this a war. The Russians advances in the areas they are attacking on are measured in a few kilometers per day if that and they are losing the momentum and initiative.
From commenter Dave from Austin at the naked capitalism website:
The recent decision to send 40 155 mm track-mounted howitzers to the Ukraine has led to the delivery of the same howitzers to Taiwan to be delayed from 2023 to 2026. And this is just 40 howitzers; in WW II we were producing 1,000/month. De-industrialization has come home to roost
So maybe its Nato thats a little short on weaponry? I mean, a lot is getting blown up as soon as it arrives. Might have to delay the plan of lighting another fire in Taiwan by a few years. Not to mention Israel. They are used to cargo planes arriving on call to resupply missiles rained down on pesky Palestinians but are they now going to have to get in behind first Ukraine, then Taiwan?
The age of the howitzers isn't the point. The point is they are being supplied with counter-battery radar that ups the effectiveness of the artillery to modern standards. The radar allows the Ukrainians to identify the source of incoming artillery fire then target the source and take it out.
I have seen no reports to suggest that large quantities of supplied military aid is being successfully targeted, and how could the Russians possibly validate such a claim?
Do you really think the Ukrainians are so stupid not to realise that the Russians are targeting their stuff, and therefore don't take countermeasures such as splitting their gear into many smaller, distributed locations, setting up decoy warehouses and the like?
Aside from Javelins and Turkish-made drones, little weaponry from NATO states has been deployed yet. Ukraine is still on its old Soviet era MiGs and tanks.
Don't you know that the U.S.A is a member of NATO..or are you just complete meathead?
Sigh. Irrespective of your childish name calling, of the equipment NATO states are funneling into Ukraine, most hasn't been deployed yet because the Ukraine forces prefer to use the old Soviet hardware they're familiar with. More to the point, why do you take such pleasure in Putin's butchery of Ukraine?
If you don't accept that U.S weaponery is being used by Ukraine on a major scale in this conflict,you are not up to date.
I take no pleasure in this tragic conflict.
The U.S don't appear to want to negotiate.
Their strategy appears to be to weaken Russia as it deploys its military resources and ramp up…sanctions.
You don't mean "negotiate", you mean "partition". Didn't work out great for India
Actually, they are fighting for themselves and their freedom, and would likely be fighting still regardless of help from the West.
So, what would you recommend them do? Lay down their weapons and be slaughtered like those in Bucha or Maruipal?
Have you ever wondered why people would rather fight to the death than be under Russian control? It doesn't say much about life under Russia if death is preferable, does it?
Well given the violent history that Russia has inflicted on Ukraine under Imperial Russia rulei& then during its 1st independence from in the from 1917 to the early 20 with the Bolsheviks. Then later with Stalin with Holodomor in the 30's through to the death of Stalin & then 80"s with Chernobyl.
The Ukranians have never trusted Russia & even when it give up it's WMD's & other Strategic Wpns. It sought guarantees from Russia under the Lisbon Protocol & the Budapest Memorandum that Russia won't interfere with it security or it's economic development to make its own decisions as a sovereign country.
But that all changed when Tsar Poot's managed to install his Toady President which to the lead to the 2014 uprising & old mate fled to Russia.
Poland, the Baltic States, Finland & Sweden are in the same boat as Ukraine atm & they would rather die than live back under a Russia Jackboot again. Thence they ended choosing to join NATO & the EU when they got the opportunity.
Unlike Ukraine who tried to give Neutrality a chance, but it wasn't going to work long term when Tsar Poot's is running Russia. So Ukranie tired to join NATO & the EU, but was blocked by Germany's use of its veto vote in NATO & EU by Merkel's German Government. Who was in Poot's back pocket as it wanted cheap Russia Gas IOT shut down its Nuclear & Coal powered power stations.
Yes, Scud – that part of the world has always operated that way.
Don't imagine for one minute that the Ukrainian propagandists or soldiers are any less prone to misbehavior than the Russians are. There are no innocents among the military and politicians making up the news.
Others say that the USA were behind that evil coup d'état of 2014.
My fear is that we are being fed lies from the Ukrainians that are approved of by our 5-eyes masters, and then dispersed to us in our mass media.
That would be a terrible situation if we fear escalation by either major party, because if we believe what we are being fed, we could well provoke that escalation.
And I fear that those patriots who approve of every report of innocent Ukranians being butchered and tortured by evil Russians – well, those ignorant idiots are silly people being duped by their own side's propaganda.
One aspect of Orwell's 1984 has come true: We have always been at war with….
Paranoid much?
Are you claiming the Russian Military hasn't carried out War crimes in Ukraine?
No, I am claiming that it is likely that some could be faked, and it is highly likely that both sides have carried out atrocities.
Except, you know, it's not American territory being invaded and American civilians being abused and murdered. You do understand that Ukraine is, in fact, a sovereign nation with most of the skin in this conflict, yeah? Does it occur to you that a substantial number of the population don't want to have their existence dictated to them by Moscow? I mean, you'd have to be the worst kind of unempathetic nihilist not to understand Ukraine is fighting for its very existence. They've done the Russian client state thing before and they don't like it. The Holodomor is very much in the cultural memory.
The Ukraine was not being "dictated to by Russia". However, that was not the point, as far as the Ukranian Neo Nazis were concerned. They just seemed to hate everything Russian. Zelenskyy was elected as the “peace” candidate, which would seem to indicate that the majority of Ukrainians wanted peace with Russia. It was a pity their government thought otherwise.
The majority of Ukrainians no doubt did want peace with Russia … pity Putin chose to invade and try to take the country over, murder civilians and cause the largest refugee crisis in Europe since the WW2.
Yes. It was a pity the Ukranians gave him reason to believe he had to.
Riiiiiight. So by your logic an ANZAC invasion of the Solomon Islands would be completely justified because their defense agreement with China puts us in range of a Julang-3 in a few years.
A false equivalence. China could probably bomb us with something or other, even without a base on the Solomons. Besides, I doubt whether we represent any sort of threat to China.
How is it a false equivalence? The US has ICBMs and stealth bombers. They don't even need the NATO bases they already have had on or near the Russian border for decades. You can't even explain how a strictly defensive alliance is a threat to a major nuclear power.
And then there's the little issue of Kaliningrad, which NATO has never so much as made a peep about.
Clearly, Putin saw Ukraine's as a threat. I doubt whether china sees us as a threat.
I see pink elephants as a threat. Can I pre-emptively invade them?
I see pink elephants as a threat. Can I pre-emptively invade them?
Sure. Why not. However, most of us don't see pink elephants. Perhaps our alcohol intake is insufficient.
You're funny. You're also historically ignorant. There are still Ukrainians alive who remember the Holodomor – can't imagine why that might make them anti-Russian – maybe something happened in 2014 to upset them? As for the old "Nazi" line, maybe actually look at the make-up of the Ukraine Parliament before uttering such profound absurdities. Of course the majority of Ukrainians wanted peace with Russia – they also wanted their sovereignty. Apparently Putin thought otherwise.
They already had their sovereignty. They just didn't realize that their Nazi dominated government was about to give it away.
I'm inclined to think that, given the obvious hostility that exists between West and East, there ought to be well defined spheres of influence attributed to each. I believe a line of demarkation should extend from the Baltic sea in the North to the Black sea in the South. That would place Ukraine, as well as the Baltic states and Finland within the Russian sphere of influence. there are some who sneer at "Finlandization", but I think the Finns have it about right for the circumstances in which they find themselves.
Sovereignty includes the ability to decide your own defense and economic partnerships without seeking the permission of the neighbours, so clearly Putin was under the impression that Ukraine didn't have sovereignty and said so on more than one occasion.
Also maybe show some evidence of this "Nazi dominated government" – In the last election Svoboda and the other far-right parties only won 2.15% of the vote combined and didn't get seats in the Parliament.
As for "Finlandization", you might think the Finns had it about right, but they've clearly changed their mind on that front thanks to Putin. You know, seeing as they're rushing to join NATO.
Sovereignty includes the ability to decide your own defense and economic partnerships without seeking the permission of the neighbours,
Gaining and maintaining sovereignty can sometime entail taking care not to antagonise one's neighbours. The hoops that Finland had to jump through, after WWII, in order to restore friendly relations with Russia, and ensure its own sovereignty, after siding with Germany during the war, should perhaps be lesson of which all countries should all take heed.
As for "Finlandization", you might think the Finns had it about right, but they've clearly changed their mind on that front thanks to Putin. You know, seeing as they're rushing to join NATO.
Finland was both smart and successful after WWII; they would be fools to now away that success by joining NATO.
Oh just stop it. The bootlicking is unseemly.
Oh just stop it. The bootlicking is unseemly.
Right. Leave Uncle Sam's boots alone.
Perhaps you should stop conflating all western nations with the US and we might get somewhere.
Perhaps you should stop conflating all western nations with the US and we might get somewhere.
US citizens, Joe Biden, Victoria Nuland, and the late John McCain, were in Kyiv around 2014, stirring things up. They are as much to blame as anybody for the current mess in Ukraine.
There some who have suggested that if Russia is allowed to "get away with" its invasion of Ukraine then the three gulf states will be the next to fall, and perhaps they will. It would certainly be in Russia's interest to extend its defensive position to the shores of the Baltic sea. The question is whether NATO would intervene and risk a nuclear war with Russia.
I hardly think NATO would welch on Article 5, especially now that Russia is so thoughtfully justifying their continued existence right now.
I don't think the US would want to see Washington, and perhaps New York, become the 21st century's Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Russia, I think, would be less squeamish. The US chickened out when Ukraine asked for a “no-fly” zone.
NATO obligations would become irrelevant if nuclear war was in the offing.
Nuclear war is in the offing, in case you hadn't been paying attention to Putin's sabre rattling.
I hadn't noticed. It's probably been drowned out by 100 years of US chauvanism.
Parliamentary representation is irrelevant if you are integrated through the military and trained, funded, supplied weapons by Nato and the US. This is pretty much standard for controling US vassal states world wide.
The Cold War is over, my dude. Everyone out of the pool.
Yes but the US still believes it has exceptional status and therefore is able to make and break the rules in the rules based world. The easiest way to enforce this is to train extremists that have no compunction taking lives to be the armed forces of client states. This mode of operating is entirely independent of the cold war and has become orders of manitude greater since the fall of the Soviet Union as has been demonstrated in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Honduras… Unsurprisingly, Russia has no intention of joining this list. Nor China nor Iran. At some point, the formation of Contra like and Al Quaida like armies must be resisted. Russia has reached the point where they no longer can tolerate extremists concentrating on their border and pounding Russian speaking civilians with artillery until invasion is the only option.
So does Russia. That's rather the point. You're so obsessed with the sins of the pot that you're blind to the butchery of the kettle.
My prediction that the War would end after about a month with a peace deal involving greater autonomy in the Donbas and likely the pre-war status quo in Crimea was incorrect. Putin seems to be in it for the long haul now and looks to be aiming to annex most of the East and South of Ukraine. This is obviously unacceptable to the Ukrainian government and given the current Western support for them I expect a majore counter-attack effort from them in the next 2 weeks which could decide the outcome of the war. It is either stalemate or the Russians will be pushed out from territory gained since the start of the war in Feb and possibly more.
Russia is the aggressor in this conflict.
I think I would regard it as a preemptive defensive strike, though I can see how such an act might be regarded as "aggressive" on technical grounds.
"I think I would regard it as a preemptive defensive strike,"
Riiiigth….. So if the goal of this "preemptive defensive strike" was to guard against future NATO expansion, then that hasn't worked out so well has it, with both Finland and Sweden keen to join up now, and all the extra NATO forces in existing NATO regions, and NATO more enthusiastic and united than ever.
Rather than a “preemptive defensive strike”, it looks more like an own-goal to me.
I think you are a wishful thinker. You want the world to be the way your inclinations dictate.
It was not only NATO expansion, despite the West's broken promise made to Gorbachev not to expand NATO. There was also the threatened invasion of Crimea.
Factcheck. NATO never promised not to expand to other countries. According to the article, any comments in that respect were in the context of German re-unification, and that claimed promise couldn't have related to current expansion because it simply wasn't a possibility at the time due to the Warsaw pact was in existence then. Also, there was never any formal agreement with respect to non-expansion of NATO.
The fact check article rates the claims as mostly false.
It is my understanding that the dissolution of the Warsaw pact was the quid pro quo for the promise, so the implication would be that NATO would not extend into the Warsaw pact countries.
If it were such a fundamental change as dissolving the Warsaw pact, then this would have been based on a formal agreement, that would have been formally documented. In which case, I look forward to you linking your source to such a formal agreement between the parties (if it exists).
"Formal" or "informal" would be irrelevant in the world of realpolitik. In that world an agreement is an agreement.
Besides, you have already admitted that an agreement was made. Only you claim it only applied to East Germany. Which of course doesn't make sense because (1) the Warsaw pact was dissolved and (2) East Germany would be part of NATO anyway, once the two Germanies were unified.
So basically if I pre-emptively punched you in the balls because I believe I am psychic and can read minds, that would be completely justified and not the act of an aggressor? Okaaayyyy. Well that's… Interesting? Special?
It wasn't a question of clairvoyance. Happenings in Ukraine spoke for themselves.
More like the voices in Putin's head. How dare Ukraine seek closer ties with better economic and security benefits!
I don't think Western prospects were better. I think the Europeans didn't want them, but were reluctant to admit that because Uncle Sam wanted Ukraine away from Russia.
That didn't stop Germany and France blocking Ukraine from NATO membership. So much for the all powerful Uncle Sam.
I understand it would be against the rules for a country to join NATO if it was involved in a border dispute with another country, as was the case with Ukraine.
This predates 2014
15,000 dead in Ukraines's Eastern provinces, at the hands of the Ukrainian militia, can hardly be considered voices in Putin's head.
Ahem. Looking at the UN breakdown it was 3,403 civilian deaths caused by both sides, which is of course appalling. The rest of that number is around 4400 Ukraine forces, 6517 DPR and LPR militias, and the US State Department throws in an unconfirmed 400-500 Russian military personnel.
It looks as if I was right about it being a "preemptive strike".
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300584237/the-only-correct-decision-no-end-in-sight-for-ukraine-war-as-russias-vladimir-putin-defends-invasion-hails-troops
Hmmmm. It's going on for a lot longer than a "strike". From the same article:
Perhaps he should nuke Washington. Slimy Joe's gun running activities would make the US a legitimate target.
Maybe you should stop playing apologist for a slimy, genocidal, kleptocrat petro-oligarch would-be Tsar like you're making some big ideological statement.
Respectfully, paragraphs are your friend.
If it is of any help, the original post on Nick Kelly’s blog is nicely formatted with paragraphs.
Poor old Nick! How did the paragraphs get unformatted?
No idea. Either he copied & pasted unformatted text straight into TS or he somehow lost the paragraph marks. If I had had more time and had seen it in time I could have re-formatted the Post here.
I don't think there is any serious dispute that Russia is the aggressor. If the invasion and civilian death toll, and rapes and tortures performed by Russian troops were not enough to establish this, the relocation of captured civilians ought to ring alarm bells – a number of minorities were exterminated in this way under the Soviets, and it was the method employed in the Armenian Genocide. The US had their own version, the Trail of Tears.
Yet the hard left who – many of whom still seem to secretly admire Stalin – still wants us to believe that the 'Great Satan' is the sole source of all the world's evils.
I'm not sure I'd call them "hard left", maybe republicans manque. But most of the atrocities they damn the US for, are presently being performed by their world leader of choice. We cannot really call them hypocrites – there's no thought happening there – they merely repeat the cant of their team.
there's no thought happening there – they merely repeat the cant of their team.
I don't think the is any doubt about Ukraine's aggression directed at the Donbas region. That's not just the 'cant of anybody's team'. Nor is Ukraine's desire to repossess Crimea, which could only be achieved through an invasion.
Q.E.D.
Q.E.D.
Quite! I'm glad you agree.
Oh no, we don't agree Mikesh. You have merely demonstrated my point – you are incapable of forming an argument, and simply bleat RT talking points like the sheep from Animal Farm. "Four legs good" and so forth.
Were you capable of debate, rather than talking about the casualties of the Donbas insurgency in isolation, you would produce some plausible scheme whereby the Ukrainian victims of Russian imperialism in the Donbas differed from those you have mentioned. There are quite a few of them, and while you fail to account for them you give every appearance of being a bigot.
Oh no, we don't agree Mikesh. You have merely demonstrated my point – you are incapable of forming an argument, and simply bleat RT talking points like the sheep from Animal Farm. "Four legs good" and so forth.
I think if you look back over my comments you will find plenty of arguments, arguments which bear no resemblance to the ad hominem nonsense above.
Were you capable of debate, rather than talking about the casualties of the Donbas insurgency in isolation, you would produce some plausible scheme whereby the Ukrainian victims of Russian imperialism in the Donbas differed from those you have mentioned.
The Eastern Ukranians wanted a level of autonomy, after the illegal ousting of Yanukovich in 2014, and the fascist coup; and for that purpose wanted to set up a federal system within the Ukraine. That was the reason for the government attacks on their region. Russia came to their defense , which was natural enough given Eastern Ukraine was mostly ethnically Russian. I suspect that the Russians may have had ulterior motives – they wanted to forestall Ukraine's entry into NATO – but the Ukrainians’ barbaric attacks were probably reason enough.
The Eastern Ukranians wanted a level of autonomy, after the illegal ousting of Yanukovich in 2014, and the fascist coup;
Putin wanted an invasion platform and a destabilizing insurgency. The Eastern Ukrainians were not consulted, because Putin is an authoritarian – democracy has no value for him, he considers it a vice. The fascist coup was the Russian occupation, and Donbas residents have been forced to join the Russian invasion as cannon meat. (https://mg.co.za/opinion/2022-04-12-cannon-meat-the-men-of-combat-age-stuck-in-ukraine/)
Dream on. I don't believe any of that. You will need to provide some evidence.
“Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has declared it illegal for any adult male to leave the country.”
(extracted from your link)
Sociologist Kamil Galeev details Russian press-ganging of Ukrainians.
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1522231625337163776
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1522247844203311107
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1522196119589171202.html
And of course you have not accounted for the victims.
Every Syrian the Russians killed posthumously became an ISIS fighter, and every Ukrainian a Nazi.
No moral distinctions to draw.
From the above thread.
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1522205098113482752
You will need to provide some evidence.
Yes we know – you only believe Der Moskvafurhrer.
Not much point in debating with fascists really – you can spin lies as fast as I can debunk them.
But you should be ashamed mikesh, to be fanboying a murderous genocide on NZ's only real Left site. We are ashamed of you – you belong on 8Chan.
I'm still waiting to see some evidence from you. Ad hominems just don't cut it. Not that I’m expecting any evidence, since it was all bullshit.
I get my information from news reports, radio, tv, newspapers. etc., but some knowledge of history also helps.
I'm still waiting to see some evidence from you.
Nonsense – you just cited one of my links.
It's not an ad hom either, merely an accurate description – the lackeys of a murderous despot have no business pretending to be progressives – away with you!
More ad hominems. You never learn, do you?
If you insist on supporting a fascist regime you cannot complain about ad homs when you are called out as a fascist.
If you insist in employing ad hominems instead rational arguments, you cannot blame me for calling you out as an ignoramus who doesn't know what he is talking about.
[Please check & correct your user name in the next comment, thanks]
Mod note
Replace 'sole' with…'main'.
The Ukraine is fighting a valiant fight for the ….yankee dollar.
Pretty sure they are fighting for their continued independence but whatever. The point is they are fighting.
There are easier ways to get the Yankee Dollar. Still no idea why that should be any of Russia's business.
What are the easier ways…?
Maybe ask Hunter Biden.
Oooh yeah, that old chestnut. Bravo. So edge.
Oh right. Radio Free Europe. I could supply numerous Russian video interviews of very grateful Mariupol citizens rescued from Azov. Also eye wilness accounts of civilians being shot by Azov as they attempt to escape the city. Your Radio Free Europe anonymous accounts only serve to bolster propaganda. They are substantially funded by NED, an acknowledged arm of the CIA.
RFE has a fairly good reputation for the integrity of its material. Certainly they select stories that favour certain views, but they are not keen on publishing fabricated material – nor do they need to, as Russia is not at all averse to outraging world opinion.
Disagree with much of this article but wish to focus on a common western trope which I think is delusional , namely ,
" In the end, it will likely result in a military defeat for Russia and humiliation for Putin."
If Russia were to take their gloves off and engage in total war i.e total destruction of infrastructure , power , fuel , water , communications , sewerage , & food distribution which they can do at will with stand off missiles , and were they to change their R.O.E to disregard civilian casualties then how can any rational thinking adult believe that Ukraine is going to win this war ?