Latest poll result – all steady but the Herald needs an English lesson

Written By: - Date published: 8:11 pm, May 3rd, 2022 - 109 comments
Categories: labour, Media, national, polls, spin, the praiseworthy and the pitiful, uncategorized, you couldn't make this shit up - Tags:

The latest Reid Research poll result has been released.  Basically it reflects other polls that have been recently conducted.  Except Roy Morgan which continues to be really out there.

So Labour and National appear to be level pegging.  Which is way better than the early part of 2020 for Labour but not as good as the initial Covid response high.

It reflects the sense of general malaise that has gripped the country.  Those anti vax protests may have been based on some really weird reality but sapping of the general confidence they were.

But someone should tell the Herald about what has been happening recently.  Because they have taken a rather extreme view of recent events, ignored the other polls, and claimed there is a recent surge to National.

Here is the offending piece with the headline National surges and Labour plummets in latest poll:

Labour has suffered a dramatic drop in support in a new political poll but could still form a government, with Te Pāti Māori once again finding itself in the position of kingmaker.

National has shot up to 40.5 per cent, up 9.5 points in tonight’s Newshub-Reid Research poll from the company’s last poll taken in February.

Labour meanwhile has dropped 6.1 points to 38.2 per cent.

Suffering from National’s rise, Act has dropped 1.6 points to 6.4 per cent. The Green Party too has seen a slight drop, down 1.2 points to 8.4 per cent.

The dramatic surge depends on the writer having no idea whatsoever what the other polls have said.  But the article refers to these polls so the rhetoric is disingenuous at best:

Recent polls have also placed National slightly above Labour, the last one in April by Taxpayers’ Union-Curia putting the Opposition one point ahead.

This followed a 1News-Kantar poll in March that had National on 39 per cent and Labour 37 per cent. It was the first time National has been ahead of Labour since February 2020, a month before the Covid 19 pandemic tore through the world and New Zealand was plunged into lockdown.

The reality is that currently it is touch and go.  And once post Covid settles down I expect Labour to go ahead.  Chris Luxton is far too brittle a leader for National to be confident.

The next eighteen months will be interesting.  Hang in there.  If you are dissatisfied with an Ardern led Government a Luxton led Government will drive you crazy.

109 comments on “Latest poll result – all steady but the Herald needs an English lesson ”

  1. Alan 1

    Objectively, I would have thought that a 15% swing between the two major parties in this reputable poll within the space of about 3 months could be fairly described as dramatic.

    I would also expect that once Covid settles down and inflation/cost of living/co-governance become the front and centre issues, the current government will decline further.

    • Not really Alan. What all of the polls seem to be saying is that Lab/Gre/MP can form a government.

      The things that are really interesting are the plummet in Seymour's party, how well the Greens are polling consistently, and how the media is loathe to accept that the MP will only go with Labour and the Greens because of Seymour's "thugs" comment.

      • Ed1 1.1.1

        I agree. We have had coalition / confidence and supply governments for all MMP governments until this government; so it is not as if 50% by one party is normal. Reporting is the issue, not the poll. What would we think of a comparison on Australia of Labor vs the Liberal party alone? The reporting is always about Labor vs the Liberal/National coalition.

        What has happened to Labour/Green vs National/ACT is a more interesting comparison, but we do not even get graphs of that! Where the Maori Party and other minor parties stand may be of interest if the main coalition party comparison is not conclusive. Farrar used to show a poll of polls – perhaps the Standard could start by showing a rolling comparison of polls for the two obvious coalitions should either National or Labour not reach 50% by themselves . . .

          • Ed1 1.1.1.1.1

            Thanks for that link. From the chart, we have Labour + Green at 46.6, National + ACT at 46.9, and 2.5+1.7+0.9+0.7 = 5.8 not at this time committed to either major party.. Does any media reporter really believe that the Green Party or ACT will not support Labour or National respectively?

            We know that some of the small parties will receive some votes but not have that translate into seats. So in summary, the effective difference between the two major parties is more like 0.3% than the reported 2.3%. Both are within the margin of error, but I suggest that the smaller gap is more meaningful for a consistent reporting structure.

            • Incognito 1.1.1.1.1.1

              I believe the latest poll suggested 59 seats of Nat+ACT, 58 seats for Lab+Greens and 3 seats for MP. A total of 61 seats is required to form a majority in Parliament, which puts the MP in the sweet spot.

              • One of the MP leaders was interviewed on Checkpoint last night-sorry but his name slips my mind. But he made a lot of sense saying the MP was happy to have "mature" discussions with the Nats.

                Having said that earlier in the day the party was saying it could not go into coalition with the Nats under their present policies, let alone ACT.

              • Belladonna

                And that, result, putting the MP in a king-maker role, will be seriously frightening to centrist Labour and National voters – and is likely to inform future voting patterns.

                Switching from one to the other – depending on which is least likely to be in coalition with the MP.
                In the absence of a centrist party (UF) or a facsimile (NZF) – switching between the 2 major parties is the only tool that centrist voters have to avoid being held hostage by extremists.

                I don't think that anyone (apart from Winston supporters – and not many of them) has fond memories of NZF leveraging their king-maker position to extort their wish list (and baubles of power) from the larger party.

                • Incognito

                  Politics is the art of the possible, the attainable – the art of the next best.

                  Otto von Bismarck

                  Who are the ‘extremists’ that ‘centrist voters’ fear so much? Are they already in NZ Parliament or just chomping at the door? Perhaps Mallard should trespass them?

                  • Belladonna

                    LOL. I think you already know the answer to this…..

                    For centrist voters, Rawiri Waititi who thinks that 'democracy is unnecessary' – is a pretty scary option to have as king-maker.

                    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/07/not-in-a-democracy-m-ori-party-co-leader-rawiri-waititi-outlines-his-vision-for-a-tiriti-centric-aotearoa-where-the-majority-doesn-t-rule-over-m-ori.html

                    They're not objecting to him being in Parliament (if he gets voted in by the electorate), they're objecting to him being able to extort concessions (a la Winston Peters) in return for the MP votes to form a government.
                    Yes, that's MMP.
                    But that's also the reason why centrist voters are likely to abandon Labour and vote National – to prevent the MP holding the balance of power. Precisely following your Bismark quote.

                    Centrist voters didn't like it when it was the (notionally) centrist Peters, extorting concession (and baubles of power); they'll like it a whole lot less when it's a party on the outer edges of the NZ political spectrum.

                    • Incognito

                      There seems to be a logical (ontological) flaw in your reasoning. Of a poll of 1,000 eligible voters apparently a few left Labour and a few went to National. This results in Labour+Greens in having only 58 seats (currently 75) and National+ACT 59 seats (currently 43) and puts MP in the kingmaker position. And allegedly, because the 1,000 voters already know the poll result beforehand, just as they know the result of the upcoming Lotto draw, they’re ‘leaving’ Labour to avoid MP being the kingmaker position? In a roundabout way you’re implying that voters are leaving Labour because they’re leaving Labour!?

                      All this is based on a poll of 1,000 eligible voters. Compared to the Election result of 2020, 118 fewer people indicated that they’d vote Labour, 149 more would vote for National, 5 more would vote for the Greens, 12 fewer for ACT, and 13 more for MP (all assuming equal weighting in the poll, which is doubtful).

                      In any case, so-called kingmakers are part of MMP. However, MP ≠ NZF, Rawiri Waititi = Co-Leader (unlike Winston Peters), and Rawiri Waititi ≠ Winston Peters. Are you calling Winston Peters an “extremist”? He was more of a pirate (or Robin Hood), stealing the Election from National and giving it to Labour laugh

      • James Simpson 1.1.2

        National's surge in the polls has coincided directly with Luxon being promoted to the leadership. When he arrived National was consistently mid 20s. He has overseen a 15% point increase in support in a short space of time which I think can only be described as dramatic.

        This is concerning because they are now in a position where they can get over the line if they run a good campaign and pick up another 3 – 4 %.

        They will go hard on Co-governance. As the Maori Party are likely to be part of the next Labour government, the move to co-governance is likely to pick up steam, and National will use this to frighten swing voters.

        So yeah, this poll, and the trend in all other polls in the past 6 months has left me feeling very uncomfortable

  2. Anne 2

    Umm, its Luxon – not Luxton.

    • Ed1 2.1

      I agree that The Standard should be seen to avoid mis-naming politicians. This is not obviously a deliberate attempt to denigrate; it may just reflect that Luxon has not been long in the job, and mistakes are made; but The Standard should I believe at least attempt to avoid the "but you do it too" excuses from the rabid right who consistently change names of government politicians for effect. Can the added 't' be removed?

      • Incognito 2.1.1

        Perhaps the Post was written and put up in a hurry, so maybe minor spelling mistakes [incorrect auto-correct setting?] could be forgiven, yes?

      • Anne 2.1.2

        Its a genuine mistake Ed1. 'mickeysavage' has a reputation for typos. He's a busy lawyer and is also involved in multiple local and regional issues. We forgive his little lapses. 🙂

    • Jimmy 2.2

      Once is probably a typo, but he's done it twice? Maybe done on purpose? Anyone that knows much about and follows politics would know his name is Luxon.

      We will get confused with Jo Luxton.

      It is good that he manages to spell Ardern correctly as many people spell that “Adern”.

      • Anne 2.2.1

        Rubbish Jimmy. You're letting your bias get in the way of rational thought. mickysavage doesn't do nasty misspellings. He never has and never will.

        Lots of people including on this site mistakenly refer to him as Luxton and it's not deliberate. Luxton is quite a common surname – Luxon not so much.

  3. newsense 3

    Oh good, looking forward to more NZHerald bully pulpit government procurement from Sir Ego Taylor.

    I loved the part at the start of the Hobbit movies where Stephen Fry, a member of an international actors union, said how great all the people of NZ had been in that filming. Such wonderful little people, who by the law of Sir Ian’s requirement, were not permitted such privileges as collective agreements. A sign of how future lifeboat NZ will be run, no doubt.

  4. Corey Humm 4

    I mostly agree but the wording of news articles doesn't matter, national has had a massive uptick in support.

    Labours holding on stronger than I thought and I agree the polling will probably get better provided they get front and center on messaging. Actually pass things that are popular and shred everything else. The govt no longer has political capital to waste on unpopular constitutional stuff.

    Luxon is actually an easy hit job it's insane the govt hasn't been effective at countering him He's running on his experience lol he ran a company that govt had to bail out multiple times under his leadership and everytime he says anything he rules out doing it an hour later. He calls renters bottom feeders lol.

    Attacking him on his religion and his personal wealth never wins votes. Attack him on the gst rises he'll inact to pay for tax cuts. That's what people care about their price increases not his personal wealth, labour never gets this right.

    The pm is labours biggest asset you only see her on morning tv once a week, twice a year on q and a and her live streams. She needs to go back to where the voters are , zb where the voters are instead of letting other talk for labour she needs to do it.

    No more policy wonk answers or non answers just quick short sharp resonating answers.

    Get technocratic snobs like parker off of the am show and get likable young labour mps like Kiri Allen and Kieran Mcnaulty on tv shows.

    And for the love of god reshuffle that cabinet and get some fresh blood in there. Reset govt completely get a new speaker new ministers. If they won't go push them.

    Labours mantra from now on needs to be is it popular? If so do it , if not bin it.

    Retail politics

    • Anne 4.1

      Jacinda Ardern has got a plethora of competent young or youngish talent to choose from so I don't know what is holding the reshuffle up. If she leaves it too late, they won't be bedded-in in time for election year.

      Helen Clark could be ruthless when it was needed but I'm starting to wonder if Jacinda is ruthless enough. She also has a problem of ethnicity/diversity to consider which she can thank past Labour conference delegates for creating. They have placed her in a bit of a strait jacket which imo should not be the most important factor to consider when it comes to choosing cabinet ministers. She will be damned if she does and damned if she doesn't.

      Lets hope she proves me wrong.

      • Ad 4.1.1

        Reshuffle, tax cuts. Housing market shift, inflation decrease.

        It will take multiple elements and luck to turn this around.

      • Mike the Lefty 4.1.2

        With respect, I think that a large part of of Jacinda Adern's problems is that she HASN'T got a big pool of talent available right now. There may be several who might develop in future years (like Jacinda herself did) but right now, it isn't there.

        Grant Robertson, of course, has proven his ability – even the opposition give him grudging respect. Andrew Little, Chris Hipkins, Damien O'Connor are seasoned politicians with plenty of experience but after that the well starts to look a little dry.

        Politics is all about the NOW rather than the future. People want jam today, not jam tomorrow and ministers like Michael Woods, Poto Williams and Stuart Nash often look out of their safe depth.

        Plus Trevor Mallard as Speaker is increasingly looking like a liability for Labour.

        If the talent is developing it had better develop fairly soon or Labour are going to look a bit thin on the ground come the 2023 elections.

        • Anne 4.1.2.1

          Michael Wood looking out of his depth? I beg to differ. He is one of the future political stars. Highly intelligent, competent and articulate.

          I note opponents and media are rushing to blame Trevor Mallard over the trespass notices. Both Parliamentary Services and the Police went out of their way to warn that such notices were going to be issued even before the protest ended. My pick is, he has followed the recommendations of both bodies in their determinations.

          It doesn't take people long to forget what started the conundrum. A large bunch of protesters trespassed the grounds of parliament by unlawfully setting up camp there. It was to be expected they would be trespassed from the precinct for a period of time by way of punishment. If a couple of opportunistic former parliamentarians choose to join the protesters in an effort to harvest votes for themselves, then they also have to bear the consequences.

          • Belladonna 4.1.2.1.1

            Regardless of the rights and wrongs of the recent tresspass notice situation – Mallard is incredibly divisive, and has a tendency to go off half-cocked and provide jam for the media.
            A Speaker should not be in the headlines…..

            • Anne 4.1.2.1.1.1

              Yes. I agree. He has a short fuse. They were the recommendations of both the Police and Parliamentary Service who of course are not concerned with the political angle. They play by the rule book and there are no grey areas in their eyes.

              Trevor should have taken that into account knowing there are members of the Opposition and the media who are waiting to take him down on the flimiest of excuses.

            • Patricia Bremner 4.1.2.1.1.2

              "A Speaker should not be in the Headlines."

              Well National's Carter, stopped the Halal slaughter of animals, which increased his firms stock take. .. Hardly fair.

              Also with his poor treatment of those 7 women MPs who tried to tell their abuse/rape stories in Parliament was misogyny. They staged a walk out.

              As for Lockwood Smith his comments about "Asians being more productive than Islanders who had to be taught how to use a shower and toilet," and "Asians hands were smaller for fruit picking" caused a storm .

              • Belladonna

                And were any of those comments – gaining headlines in the papers – a good thing for their party? I think not……
                Which rather reinforces my point.

    • James Simpson 4.2

      He's running on his experience lol he ran a company that govt had to bail out multiple times under his leadership

      Got a source for that Corey?

      • Patricia Bremner 4.2.1

        No Luxon just cut all the provincial routes… never mind the fragile freight or medical transfers. His staff had to pay for their own location to meet a flight for work, so he is practiced at cuts.

  5. MickeyBoyle 5

    "he ran a company that govt had to bail out multiple times under his leadership"

    This isn't true. Air NZ was not bailed out whilst Luxon was CEO. They actually performed reasonably well under his watch.

    Everything else I agree with you. Dump the unpopular stuff like co-governance, go back on Hoskings show and for gods sake, move Mallard on, his brand is toxic.

    • Louis 5.1

      Co-governance is not new. "Māori co-governance arrangements have already been made under previous New Zealand governments" that includes National governments MickeyBoyle.

      https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2022/apr/24/in-new-zealand-maori-co-governance-is-already-underway-referendum-or-not

      "The Prime Minister's schedule of media appearances has been reviewed and while it hasn't reduced overall, it has changed," the statement read. The Prime Minister will no longer do a weekly slot specifically on the ZB morning show. "However she, and all her ministers, will continue to appear on the show as and when issues arise."

      https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/03/prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-cancels-weekly-interview-with-newstalk-zb-s-mike-hosking.html

      "the Newstalk ZB breakfast host interviewed Jacinda Ardern in a rare interview since she cancelled her weekly slot. The interview covered numerous topics including seasonal workers, managed isolation and quarantine spaces, and the vaccination rollout. After the interview, Hosking revealed he doesn't want the Prime Minister to return to his show"

      https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/04/mike-hosking-says-he-doesn-t-want-pm-jacinda-ardern-back-on-radio-show-after-interview.html

      Disagree with your view that Mallard is toxic. https://twitter.com/SpeakerTrevor/status/1521366778806685698

      • Gosman 5.1.1

        Why isn't Mallard toxic? He has lost the confidence of the major opposition parties. That isn't a good thing for a Speaker.

        • Dennis Frank 5.1.1.1

          Mallard's a conservative. He's defending the citadel of democracy against the barbarian rabble. Gets him conservative street cred big-time!

        • Louis 5.1.1.2

          When has any opposition party agreed with the speaker? For instance, don't recall the then opposition parties of Labour, Greens, NZ First agreeing with David Carter.

      • MickeyBoyle 5.1.2

        ''Co- governance is not new''

        • This may be the case, but it is currently a vote loser which the left doesn't need. Are you really willing to push on with this, when by all accounts, the public is overwhelmingly against this?

        NewstalkZB

        • Whether you like it or not Hosking is still the dominant radio voice, choosing to abandon the weekly slot on his show comes across as petty and makes Ardern look like she is afraid to be challenged.

        Mallard

        • And as for Mallard, he is extremely toxic to brand Ardern and brand Labour. I truly hope you and others will see this soon.
        • Louis 5.1.2.1

          Co-governance already exists MickeyBoyle and where did you get "the public is overwhelmingly against this?"

          Racism should not be tolerated.

          Did you miss the part "However she, and all her ministers, will continue to appear on the show as and when issues arise." and did you also miss the part, where a most petty Hoskings said, after much whining, I might add, that he didn't want the PM back on his show.

          Anne at 4.1.2.1 "I note opponents and media are rushing to blame Trevor Mallard over the trespass notices. Both Parliamentary Services and the Police went out of their way to warn that such notices were going to be issued even before the protest ended. My pick is, he has followed the recommendations of both bodies in their determinations"

          Mallard's tweet backs that up, did you read it? "Parliamentary Service Commission met today to consider the narrow question of whether former MPs should be exempted from the general policy that resulted in trespass orders being issued to those identified as trespassing" It was only the Act party that supported the exemption, National didn't.

  6. Labour_Voter 6

    I am a Labour voter and this poll is really worrying for me. How can this be good news for Labour and its supporters?

  7. Ad 7

    We've had 2 major pre-budget announcements: 1 housing, 1 climate. Weetbix again.

    To get any poll reversal into 2023 Robertson must deliver the equivalent of Coca Cola: short term sugar rush with caffeine.

  8. Gosman 8

    "It's the economy stupid" is the lesson to be taken from this. If Labour can't get the cost of living increases under control in the next year then they will likely lose.

    They can of course keep trying the Grant Robertson approach and blame it all on external sources however the government is carrying out what is essentially Keynesian economics and has been priming the pump. The trouble is the economy is close to capacity and traditional Keynesian economics would suggest they should be cutting back on spending at this point in the economic cycle otherwise inflation increases.

    • Louis 8.1

      New Zealand's economy is doing far better than most Gosman.

      • James Simpson 8.1.1

        Nobody is going to vote on the basis of whether New Zealand is doing better than Australia (which is debatable at best).

        • Louis 8.1.1.1

          How about better than most in the OECD James? Like Gosman said "It's the economy stupid"

          • James Simpson 8.1.1.1.1

            Yeah its about our economy though. What is happening elsewhere is irrelevant when people got to the polls.

            The question people ask themselves is am I doing better than I was 2 years ago. It's not am I doing better than someone living in Germany or Canada.

  9. tsmithfield 9

    Since I come from a right wing perspective most of you would probably assume I am over-joyed about the trend in the polls. But, actually, I am not particularly ecstatic.

    The reason for my muted response is that I see the trend back towards National being largely due to the economic squeeze affecting people at the moment, rather than any stellar plans from National.

    I would rather see the election fought over strength of ideas where National could show better plans and ideas than Labour. I am not very happy that National may win because people are suffering under economic hardship.

    • Gosman 9.1

      National is benefiting from the innate belief the electorate has that it is a better manager of the economy in times of crisis. Having Chris Luxon as leader helps this as many people think someone who can be a successful head of a business can also sort out an economy. This belief may well be erroneous but as we have seen with Ardern and Labout politics is probably more about feelings and perception than logic and outcomes.

      • Louis 9.1.1

        Luxon hasn't shown he would be a better manager, imo I don't think he's the 'saviour' that you think he is.

      • Patricia Bremner 9.1.2

        Well considering they got billions to work with from Insurance, it was amazing the mess they made of Christchurch after the quake..

        They did not train Tradies and used the contract act to bargain builders down, so folk got shoddy work, some of which had to be redone, during Key's "Rock Star Economy".

        Meantime all the rest of NZ ran low on houses. So how exactly were they better managers?

    • Hongi Ika 9.2

      Things would have been a lot worse under a NACT Government, especially the number of COVID deaths if we had followed NACT Policy ?

  10. ianmac 10

    Yes TS. This morning on Morning Report Luxon was asked several times for his plans to fix-correct the "problems."

    His answer was to say nothing, no plans, no ideas. Seems incredible that National can stay silent but gather support in polls.

    • Gosman 10.1

      As I have pointed out in my previous comment. Politics is as more about perception much of the time. Labour has got itself in to a bit of a pickle with the economy and that is perceived to be the area where National is strong.

      • Louis 10.1.1

        NZ's economy is doing better than most Gosman. Record low unemployment rate 3.2%

        • tsmithfield 10.1.1.1

          Unfortunately, that unemployment rate is a bit artificial and at least in part due to the fact that our borders have been closed and it has been very difficult to get skilled staff into the country.

          Thus, the low unemployment rate is an indication of a problem rather than something to be celebrated.

          • Louis 10.1.1.1.1

            Tell that to StatsNZ.

            • tsmithfield 10.1.1.1.1.1

              Completely true.

              Even on Newstalk ZB and TV1 news (I think) they were talking about labour shortages in the construction sector being part of the reason some of these firms are on the brink and how that the doors need to be opened to let more people in.

              • Louis

                Hon GRANT ROBERTSON (Minister of Finance): "Today's unemployment numbers are something for New Zealand to be proud of. We have the lowest rate of unemployment since the household labour force survey series began in 1986, at 3.2 percent—fewer than 100,000 people out of work; more people in work—2.826 million people in work; and wages have continued to rise—4.8 percent in the year to March. And while it is undoubtedly tough going for many New Zealanders with the cost of living rising, we have rising wages and that is a sign of strength in our economy. This economic recovery did not happen by accident. This happened because of the hard work of New Zealanders and a Government that had a plan. We always knew that the best health response would be the best economic response. We backed Kiwis to stay in jobs through the wage subsidy scheme. We supported businesses and households to stay afloat and at the same time we made sure there were opportunities to get skills. More than 170,000 New Zealanders have benefited from free apprenticeships and targeted trade training"

                https://ondemand.parliament.nz/parliament-tv-on-demand/?itemId=224959

                • tsmithfield

                  Yes, he would say that. Do you really think he would be saying that low employment data is a symptom of a much more serious problem?

                  The problem is that labour shortages are part of the reason for inflation that people are enduring at the moment. Labour shortages can limit supply to the market for one thing. Shortages increase prices.

                  For some reason, Labour seems to be fixed on its objective for an immigration reset. Unfortunately this is going to mean major skill shortages that we are starting to see at the moment.

                  • Louis

                    Why wouldn't Robertson list off some good facts and your link is about discussion documents, there is a lot of ifs, maybes and the word 'alleged' was used a lot.

                    • Patricia Bremner

                      yes It is a regular thing to discount the good and amplify the bad.

                      That is the regular position the opposition has taken. Him indoors wisely said "They are there to oppose" I glumly said "Spose so!!"

                  • Ad

                    Skill shortages put solid upward pressure on wages and salaries. It's the first time that's happened here in a long time. It's a good thing.

                    All those orchards who can't attract seasonal workers are having to offer higher prices-per-bucket + free accommodation. It'll teach them for not investing in mechanisation and good process engineers years ago. Boo hoo stop whining you fools.

                    Companies like the one I work for will fly in specialists for the big complex jobs.

                    But for pure on-tools labour we are already pulling people off long term welfare dependency and short jail terms, calling up mothers who wanted to take the full year off, offering 3-days-a-week to people 65-75 who are keen to contribute.

                    Anyone here keen to earn good money I can find them something they will will be proud of.

                    • tsmithfield

                      Ad, I agree with you that it is good for workers at the moment, in the short term.

                      The problem is, what happens if the economy goes south, as appears to be on the horizon at the moment with all the world events going on?

                      The biggest cost for most businesses is wages. However, wages tend to include an implied ratchet clause, in that the tend to go up, but not down. So, if the wage cost gets overcooked for a business, the only available option is to reduce those costs by laying off staff.

                      Therefore, businesses will tend to look for opportunities to reduce wage costs when times are tough. And these jobs won't necessarily come back, as so many business functions are becoming automated.

                      Not only in the manufacturing area, but also in functions such as office administration. For instance, there is readily available technology now that allows invoices to be scanned and automatically imported and entered into accounting systems.

                      Thus, the long term effect of all this is bad for workers. When things get tough workers get laid off. When things improve, businesses have adjusted and automated so they don't always need those workers back.

                  • Poission

                    For some reason, Labour seems to be fixed on its objective for an immigration reset. Unfortunately this is going to mean major skill shortages that we are starting to see at the moment.

                    The RBNZ is consistent with its statements,that construction and housing costs are the core agents of inflation,and that essentially interest rates will rise,until over valued and costed housing become sustainable.

                    Here sustainable is a 5-20% price decrease in housing.The overextended building supply and construction sectors need to contract to their productive limits.

                    • pat

                      "Here sustainable is a 5-20% price decrease in housing."

                      Surely you dont buy that jawboning?

                    • Poission

                      central bankers need to be consistent with their messaging,so markets adjust without significant shocks,here the underlying message is house prices will fall to their real value,and by a mix of reducing monetary supply and increasing interest rates,they will.

                    • pat

                      if they only fall by 5-20% (and inflation is not rampant due to a wage spiral) then they will in no way be sustainable….as they well know.

                      But never let the facts get in the way of a narrative.

                    • Poission

                      They have already fallen by 4% since the November peak,and inventory has lifted to record levels in Otago,Wellington,and the central north island.

                      Record building consents have both positive and negative outcomes across NZ,In provincial NZ it has expansion in some areas with both existing infrastructure,and available sections.In Auckland the high rate of building consents is not matched by the same increase in available housing due to demolition with infill.

                      Nationwide residential building consents are
                      at record high levels. However, new dwelling
                      consents are not contributing as much to
                      net housing supply as in previous building
                      booms (figure 2.6),
                      because a large share of
                      consents are for infill housing, which involves
                      demolishing older houses. COVID-related
                      disruptions are also slowing the conversion
                      of consents into new dwellings.

                      Risks around residential development
                      projects have also increased, owing to cost
                      escalation, supply chain disruptions, and
                      labour shortages. Nevertheless, growth in
                      housing supply is expected to remain strong
                      over the next year, amid a general slowdown
                      in demand

                      https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Financial%20stability%20reports/2022/fsr-may-22.pdf?revision=f8ea983a-92d8-4439-9bb0-a668f3e10e97

                    • pat

                      None of that validates the statement that a 5-20% decrease in price of $890,000 NZ (or 1.2 million Auckland) when median incomes are less than 60K makes housing prices sustainable…..but it does point to the fabrication that a soft landing of a modest discount is highly unlikely.

                    • Poission

                      Most loans would have an income of at least two median wages,and the banks have stress tested to over 6% (around 7% for new loans) see 2.11 of above link.

                      Mortgage rates alone do not stress households it intangibles such as insurance,energy,and rates that will be questioned.The hard /soft landing is dependent on employment sustainability,where real estate and durable goods sales growth will be decreasing those will be at risk.GST falls in the financial update suggest that is underway.

                    • pat

                      The 'test rate' is in house and self monitored….go to the banks calculators and see what they are telling customers they can borrow….and 2 full time incomes incomes may or may not be typical at the time of application…and the fact that mortgage servicing costs alone do not 'stress' household budgets is hardly helpful in an increasing inflationary environment…indeed it restricts the RBNZs options

                    • Poission

                      The interest rates will preclude new buyers from the market at pre existing asks,hence to sell they will have to reduce to a level that will be acceptable to the lenders to sustain outgoings.

                      Existing borrowers (excluding changes in personal circumstances) should not be at risk even if they move to negative equity,the removal of cash for mortgage repayments (9 to 16 billion interest this year) will reduce liquidity in the economy hence deflationary.

                    • pat

                      Which all adds up to considerably greater than 5-20% asset value declines

                    • Poission

                      They suggested 30% at a 8% mortgage rate making a boundary condition.They also have other tools to reduce liquidity that limits government spending (includes local and corporations) with higher long bond issues.

                      Interesting times for policy makers,local and national.

                    • pat

                      Yes there are other tools but they are of little use when the objectives are contradictory.

                • pat

                  Remembering that one hours paid labour in a week constitutes employment

                  • Patricia Bremner

                    Remembering a person can earn far more before their benefit is cut now.

                    • pat

                      That is irrelevant to the oft trumpeted 'unemployment' stats

                    • Louis

                      I think Patricia made a valid point and the methodology re unemployment stats hasn't changed since National.

    • tsmithfield 10.2

      Yes, replying to you and Gosman:

      I agree that people do tend to see National as better financial managers which may partly explain the swing in these times.

      And I am not surprised that Luxon didn't have many answers. As I said previously, I think if the shoe were on the other foot, National would be in the same position. Firstly, they would have done pretty much the same as Labour in terms of stimulus and financial support. Secondly, there is little they could have done about imported inflation.

      Sometimes problems are so large that governments can't do much about them. So, I am not surprised that Luxon didn't have many answers. National could perhaps tinker around the edges, and spend money more efficiently in some areas, but it is largely window dressing.

      What may well happen is that National wins the election, and by the time of the following election the world economy has improved and National hails themselves as responsible for the turn around. But in reality it is just global trends playing out.

      One thing I would do if I was finance minister is to increase the RB inflation band range to reflect reality at the moment. Say from 0-2% or whatever it is now to say 3-5%. That would take a bit of pressure of the RB to keep ramping up interest rates which are proving a double-whammy at the moment with all the imported inflation.

      • ianmac 10.2.1

        The UK Media are hammering Johnson for the rise in the Cost Of Living but he says there is not much that he can do about it. Familiar? Meanwhile in Australia…

      • Patricia Bremner 10.2.2

        People tend to see National as better managers. Why?
        Most improvements for all have been brought in by Labour.

        Perhaps because Journalists do not trumpet praise given this Government's achievements by economists and rating agencies?

        Propoganda… Tell the biggest lie and keep repeating it.

  11. Reality 11

    Labour (& Jacinda as PM) have had sudden overwhelming challenges to deal with in the last few years. Given his inarticulateness I can't imagine how Luxon would have coped in those circumstances. He is only ok when following his minders' scripts. Off the cuff he is pretty poor. Last night on TV1 news he stumbled around incoherently. Embarrassing.

    • rod 11.1

      What the latest poll didn't say was how many people took part in it, and if it was online, and mobile phones only ? if no landline phones took part in it , the results look like a load of old bollocks to me.

      • Incognito 11.1.1

        How many landlines would you need to make it look less bollocksy?

      • Belladonna 11.1.2

        Here's the link to the Reid Research and the TV3 (aka Newshub) poll methodology

        http://www.reidresearch.co.nz/TV3+POLL+RESULTS.html

        They do 3/4 landlines and 1/4 internet polling (roughly) – no mobiles as both too expensive and no white pages, so difficult to find the numbers.

        And here's Patrick Gower on why they made the shift from 100% landline in 2017

        https://stoppress.co.nz/features/newshub-polling/

        • lprent 11.1.2.1

          I am surprised that it was as high as that. We have a landline. It allows the intercom at the front door to call through in the apartment. Noone else with one execotion now uses it.

          We ignore it if the caller id isn't the front door or the technophobic relative who doesn't use anything more advanced than fax machines. That is worth the $10 per month for a unlisted voip landline.

          Everyone else is either trying to sell us something from a number in the US or UK and originating elsewhere or they are trying to get us to sell an apartment or they want to run a survey.

          As soon as we move out, the landline goes as well. I haven't called a personal landline in more than 6 years.

          About 2016…

          • Belladonna 11.1.2.1.1

            I still have (and call) landlines. Elderly relatives.
            But most people I know, my age and younger are cellphone only.

            • gsays 11.1.2.1.1.1

              I am the same with the elderly parents and landlines.

              I answered my cell phone in a hasty, slightly anxious state when I saw Mum's number on the screen.

  12. gsays 12

    I am the same with the elderly parents and landlines.

    I answered my cell phone in a hasty, slightly anxious state when I saw Mum's number on the screen.

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