Originally posted on Nick Kelly’s blog
On February 24 2022 Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military to invade Ukraine, a nation that declared independence from Russia on August 24 1991. This is not the first time in Ukraine’s 30 years of independence that the Russian Federation has attacked Ukraine, having annexed the Crimea region back in 2014. Vladimir Putin has made no secret of the fact that he believes Ukraine has been ruled by forces hostile to Russia. Whilst many were surprised by the Russian government’s decision to take this hostile action toward Ukraine, there were plenty of warning signs that this may happen.
It is not my view that war is inevitable, be it in the Ukraine, Palestine, Syria or elsewhere. However, there are often only small windows of opportunity where a lasting peace can be built or negotiated. In the case of Russia and Ukraine, there have been plenty of warning signs over the last 30 years and potentially different responses to these may have produced a different result. What-if-isms are of little comfort or help to those now forced to flee Ukraine or those who are now staying to defend their homeland against Russian invasion.
Residents remove their belongings from a destroyed building in Kyiv after it was hit by artillery shelling. [Felipe Dana/AP Photo]
Russia is the aggressor in this conflict. The targeting of civilians and shelling during a so-called Cease-Fire are acts committed by the Russian forces, and the US President is correct to call President Putin a ‘war criminal’. Those who justify or use moral equivocation by citing the presence of the far-right in Ukraine or that this was in response to NATO expansion miss the point. Yes, the far-right does have a presence in Ukraine and yes they also have joined the resistance to the current invasion. But the logic that this somehow justifies the Russian invasion is incredibly warped. For one, the war gives the far right in Ukraine space to recruit and win support by being part of the resistance. Secondly, if the correct response is for Russia to invade every European country that has an active far-right then very few nations are not at risk of invasion.
On the left, many are still influenced by the analysis of Lenin during the First World War and just before the 1917 Russian Revolution that in an inter-imperialist conflict socialists should be standing up to their own ruling class. During the First World War, there were strong arguments for working people not to align with the Tsar in Russia or other imperialist leaders in that conflict. It is dangerous to simply apply this idea to the current conflict without understanding that the context is different. There is a strong argument that people should be holding their own government or ‘ruling class’ to account during any situation like this. Ultimately, the decision to invade Ukraine was Russia’s, but there is still a question of what the governments and in particular NATO members could have done to help prevent this and what they can do now. Sadly, some on the left and drawn both bizarre and quite dangerous conclusions based on the premise that their role is to stick it to their own ruling class. Bizarrely, some socialists still mistake Russia to be some sort of socialist/anti-imperialist power, thinking that there is some residue influence of the 1917 revolution.
In my late teens, a became involved with radical left politics largely influenced by opposing the invasion of Afghanistan and later Iraq. I began studying the history of US foreign policy in places like Chile in 1973 or Iran in 1953. In 2001, just before the attack on the Twin Towers in New York, Australian journalist John Pilger released a documentary called The New Rulers of the World, which clearly outlined the role played by the US in installing the Suharto dictatorship in Indonesia. This in turn meant that country allowed western manufacturers to move production to that country where labour standards were very low and clothing and other items could be produced cheaply. Whilst Pilger has always been prone to being an evangelist for his cause and being a polarising figure, in the past, he has played an important role in highlighting the shortcomings of western governments. Pilger’s bizarre article written days before the Russian invasion is selective with which facts it includes and effectively paints President Putin and the Russian state as victims of Western propaganda. Pilger like many others on the left is so determined to expose their own ‘ruling class’ that they’ll downplay or ignore the countless human rights abuses committed by Russia under Putin’s leadership.
Many on the left, and some on the right or centre focussed their attention on NATO. The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation is a Cold War military alliance designed to stand up to the Soviet Union. After the end of the Cold War, there is a legitimate question as to whether this alliance should have continued. Many continued to be nervous about Russia, a nation that is resource-rich and historically has been very influential. It also does not have a strong history of democracy and instead has had a brutal history of state control both under Tsarism and later when it was the USSR. Certainly for the nations like Lithuania and Ukraine which were ruled by Russia for many years this nervousness is justified. Whether retaining the NATO alliance was the best way to counter this is a fair question. However, to say that the threat of Ukraine joining NATO provoked or even justified the Russian invasion is just wrong. Kier Starmer’s threat to withdraw the whip from any UK Labour MP who supported the Stop the War coalition who is calling for No NATO Expansion is an overreaction. That said, the optics of the coalition’s slogan are really bad. Whatever faults there are with NATO, it is Russia that has just invaded a sovereign country resulting in death, destruction and people being displaced. Trying to deflect from this is not a credible position at all.
The other argument put forward is moral equivalence, whereby people argue that the decision of the US and its allies to invade Iraq was just as bad so who are we to go criticising Russia. The decision to invade Iraq was wrong and few would still defend that action. That does not mean Britain or the US should not criticise Russia for what it is doing in Ukraine, if anything it places a greater responsibility on these governments to uphold human rights now. This is even more important when there is a real chance of forces more sympathetic to Russia taking power. Former US President Donald Trump continues to describe Vladimir Putin in glowing terms. Trump continues to exert considerable influence and control over the Republican Party, who currently stands a strong chance of gaining at least one house in the midterm elections later this year. In such a scenario there are no guarantees that the current pressure being applied to the Putin regime will hold up.
One of the problems has been the inconsistent approach to Russia since the end of the Soviet Union. The recent pressure for Roman Abramovich to sell Chelsea Football Club has brought to light some of the corrupt practices he and others used to make their fortune including the purchase of an oil company from the Russian government in a rigged auction in 1995. The UK allowed these characters to invest this ill-gotten gain into its economy, right up till earlier this year. When the current Russian regime attacked Chechnya in 1999, invaded Georgia in 2008, invaded Crimea and parts of Donbas in Ukraine in 2014 and engaged in a proxy war in Syria it was met with only mild responses including limited sanctions against Russia or mealy-mouthed speeches. Meanwhile, the city of London continued to be awash with ill-gotten money from Russia. That the current UK Prime Minister gave a peerage to Lord Lebedev, owner of two major UK newspapers and friend of Boris Johnson and other senior Conservatives despite security concerns being raised at the time indicates the level of influence Russian money now has in the UK.
Back when the Eastern block fell, the priority was to integrate them into global markets. This was of course at the end of the free market 80s where the naive view was that through economic liberalism democratic political reform would also occur. This maybe a generous view, for many, access to Russian markets and resources was an opportunity for profit. Whilst opportunistically making money from this new market, the political response was to leave NATO intact and treat Russia as a potential foe. Whilst trying to impose Western-style democracy into Russia rather than letting the people of that country decide on their own future would have been an error, to assume that a country with a history of little else than totalitarian regimes would be quick to embrace liberal democracy, free speech and human rights was foolish. What the best approach would have been in hindsight is still unclear, but it seems to profit from post-soviet Russia whilst at the same time treating it as a potential military and political threat has not led to a good outcome.
The invasion that began just over two months ago will have a profound impact on global politics for many years. The conflict is unlikely to end quickly and will take a toll on everyone involved. In the end, it will likely result in a military defeat for Russia and humiliation for Putin. This could mean a much more volatile situation in dealing with a state that has a permanent seat on the UN security council and has nuclear weapons. Much of Europe currently relies on Russia for oil and gas and moving away from this will cause considerable economic upheaval. And Ukraine will take years to recover from this invasion even once the conflict has ceased.
This war needs to end yesterday and never would have started but for the destructive tentacles of the USA .Negotiation not more weapons .Allowing america to add another notch to their failed state belt could be the last act of a doomed planet .
But yes Ukraine is getting what they deserve. Zelenski and his war machine have had years to sort this out. Well they are getting sorted now and there's fuck all the yanks can actually do about it. I hope Bidens wardogs lose to Trump in the next election as a blowback for funding this madness.
The Ukraine civilians are the big losers, and don't deserve any of this,
I want NZ to send aid only to the civilians only. Zelenski and his army can go to hell, and they certainly are!
I guess aside from the tiny inconvenient fact that Ukraine did not attack Russian territory, and indeed gave up its nuclear arsenal to be less of a threat. We will probably also have to ignore the utter absurdity of any country casually attacking a country with a nuclear arsenal like Russia.
I suppose you'd prefer it if the Russian forces just assaulted and murdered Ukrainian civilians while the Ukraine military did nothing? What a curious mind you have.
I think they were on the point of invading Crimea, which of course is part of Russia. There was also the matter of the attacks on Donbass etc. which was mostly populated by ethnic Russians.
There is zero evidence that Ukraine was going to send troops to or attack the ukraine in any manner whatsoever.
The fighting/skirmishes in the Donbas region of Ukraine has been going on for somet time why did Putin decide to attack now and why did he try to seize control of the entire country and murder thousands nowhere near the Donbas region ?
'They banned education in Russian.
They banned the ability to speak Russian at school (teachers can be fired for this).
They banned the ability to speak Russian at work (you can be fined or fired for this).
They banned the ability to speak Russian for politics (even politics like the president can’t speak Russian)
Also cinema, theater, excursions, etc, etc.
You can’t even sign in Russian in public in some cities like Lviv.
'It is allowed to speak Russianin private but illegal to provide services in Russian unless specifically asked by customer. So, people in absolutely russian–speaking cities obliged to address customers in ukrainian because they can be fined if some ukrainian from Western Ukraine complains.'
It looks very much like the Ukranians were looking to protect and promote their cultural language. If it was Te Reo we were talking about you would be all for it.
What an idiotic comparison! Te Reo is adding a language to include another culture. Ukraine deleted Russian to persecute a large sector of their population. Estimated native speakers of Russian in Ukraine are 40%!
It is not illegal to provide services in Russian. The law you are referring to states that the service must be made available in Ukrainian UNLESS the customer requests otherwise. In this regard it is similar to what happens in Quebec with French. I disagree with the policy but it is not the same as making speaking another language illegal as you suggest.
Sorry, but you really are very wrong. There is ample evidence from the OSCE that artillery fire from the Ukraine side into Donbass increased by a factor of 30 in the days before the 24th starting on the 16th. Biden knew this barrage had begun when he asserted an imminent invasion and that Putin was already under pressure to take seriously the hell that was being created for Russian speakers in Ukraine
I understand Putin tried over and over again to get Zelenskyy to the negotiating table, but Zelenskyy refused. The invasion was probably the last straw.
Apparently there were movements of crack troops towards Donbas just prior to the invasion. Those could have been preparation for a concerted attack on Donetsk, or possibly to support an invasion of Crimea; ie to cut off a possible counterattack from the East.
Ukraine is known to have a policy of recovering Crimea
Given that nukes were supplied by the Soviets, there is no implication that Ukraine was entitled to hold on to them once the Soviet Union ceased to exist. The same would apply to Ukraine’s "ownership" of Crimea.
This would be the same Crimea transferred to the Ukraine SSR on the authority of the Supreme Soviet on 19 February 1954 would it?
Now I'm no fancy book-learning diplomat or international lawyer, but given no agreement was ratified transferring either back to Russia with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and Ukraine wasn't a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, there is no case to answer.
When the assignment was made in 1954, I don't think it was envisaged that Crimea would ever fall into the hands of the West. One would suppose that that was never part of the deal. Clearly, with Ukraine moving Westwards, Crimea should have reverted to Russian control.
"Fall into the hands of the West"
It's fascinating watching someone condemning Western economic imperialism while quite brazenly defending Russian neo-imperial rechavism. It really is.
I echo the comment about paragraphs. Perhaps you could edit this and add a few appropriate paragraphs to make reading a bit easier.
I think this conflict may not last as long as what people think.
Firstly, Russia may well start running low on ammo soon. There have been a number of well publicised attacks on Russian ammo dumps, including in the major Russian staging area of Belgorod. But more importantly, there has just been a huge fire at a major weapons factory in Perm, Russia. This factory manufactures rockets, missiles, and shells used in the Russian war effort. I understand it is the second largest in Russia.
Fires and other sabotage activity in the Belgorod region are relatively close to Ukraine, and are likely due to Ukrainian attacks. But there have been a lot of fires in other key industries well outside of Ukrainian artillery or missile range, and much deeper into Russia. So, it could potentially be that Russian dissidents themselves are attacking some of this infrastructure.
So, this type of activity is going to have an effect on the ability for Russians to resupply their forces with ammunition. Compounding this are the effect of sanctions since many Russian complex military systems and weapons rely on electronics from the US and other western nations meaning the Russians are trying to find work-arounds to get these products.
Secondly, however, on the Ukrainian side of the equation, the Ukrainians are already causing the Russians a lot of trouble before the heavy weapons on the field have even arrived. Once the Ukrainians have these heavy weapons, they will have an endless supply of western ammunition.
So, there will soon likely be a situation where Russia is struggling for ammunition, and Ukraine is able to destroy the Russian artillery that is the cornerstone of the Russian military war method.
Therefore, I expect within the next month or so that the Ukrainians will be able to start pushing the Russians back out of Ukraine.
I think the Russians scuppered any hope of a peace deal due to all the war crimes they committed in Bucha, and the fact that they seem intent on erasing the Ukrainian nation.
Why would Ukraine be interested in a peace deal at all, especially when they see they have the chance to push the Russians right out of Ukraine.
One of the first things I think the Ukrainians will do once they have the right equipment from the west is to hit the Crimean bridge that connects Russia to Crimea. This would create a huge problem for the Russians, and as you can see from the article, not something they would be very happy about.
Portraying the Ukrainian people as unwilling dupes of the west is errant nonsense.
Their remembered history of russian/soviet behaviour over the last century combined with they fierce resistance to the russian invasion overwhelming supported by the majority of their population combined with the exodus of millions of civilians to western aligned countries suggests you are the dupe not the ukrainian people.
Mikesh has it about right. It has taken huge amounts of money thrown at extremists by the US in their usual way to create the current situation. 2014 was a US manufactured coup that gave Nato access to fanatics that could be trained and nurtured. Even at the point of the election of Zelenski, the people of Ukraine rejected the obvious extremism of Poroshenko. Zelenski was elected as the outsider that pledged to act on the minsk accords which would have ended hostilities in Donbass and Luhansk
Sure, Yanukovych's blatant corruption couldn't possibly have had anything to do with Euromaidan gaining popularity. Yes, they had money from Washington. Yanukovych was in the pocket of Moscow, but apparently that's OK, and we'll just ignore those inconvenient democratic elections since then.
Well, if corruption is the only metric, Zelenski has quite a large footprint in the pandora papers. As for the elections, he had overwhelming support from the Russian speaking LDNR on the promise of following through on the Minsk agreements. As the link shows, he sold out.
It's not the only metric. There's always good old blood on the ground and civilian death tolls. You just really hate the idea of Ukrainians having any agency.
I'm pretty sure the issue with the Euromaidan was the desire to "do a deal with Europe. Hence the name Euromaidan. the illegal coup which ousted Yanukovich was occasioned by his accepting an economics assistance deal from Russia, when Europe appeared to dragging the chain.
Rather amusing given Russia was hardly in a position to give economic assistance to anyone. Why is it that you can't condemn US militarism without playing apologist for Putin. I can. It's easy. US and Russian imperialism are both bad. See? Easy.
Russia has been giving economic assistance to numerous 3rd world countries for..decades…real aid…not debt bearing aid that is paid to western corporations.
The 'aid' gets paid to western corporations…and the recipient country gets landed with the interest and principal.When they default it becomes a lever to remainder..resources.
As it happens Russia gave 15 billion dollars (I think that was the amount) in 2014, with no strings attached. This was what riled the Euromaidan protesters. Some people just don't know when they're well off. Apparently they'd have preferred a much smaller conditional deal from the Europeans.
The Ukrainian military still has a large pool of military aged and trained personnel to draw reinforcements from as a result of the mobilisation orders issued at the start of the war and is receiving massive amounts of military equipment from Western nations. Russia on the other hand is depleting it's professional military wing and is restricted from replenishing the troops in Ukraine with the decision not to declare this a war. The Russians advances in the areas they are attacking on are measured in a few kilometers per day if that and they are losing the momentum and initiative.
So maybe its Nato thats a little short on weaponry? I mean, a lot is getting blown up as soon as it arrives. Might have to delay the plan of lighting another fire in Taiwan by a few years. Not to mention Israel. They are used to cargo planes arriving on call to resupply missiles rained down on pesky Palestinians but are they now going to have to get in behind first Ukraine, then Taiwan?
The age of the howitzers isn't the point. The point is they are being supplied with counter-battery radar that ups the effectiveness of the artillery to modern standards. The radar allows the Ukrainians to identify the source of incoming artillery fire then target the source and take it out.
I have seen no reports to suggest that large quantities of supplied military aid is being successfully targeted, and how could the Russians possibly validate such a claim?
Do you really think the Ukrainians are so stupid not to realise that the Russians are targeting their stuff, and therefore don't take countermeasures such as splitting their gear into many smaller, distributed locations, setting up decoy warehouses and the like?
Aside from Javelins and Turkish-made drones, little weaponry from NATO states has been deployed yet. Ukraine is still on its old Soviet era MiGs and tanks.
Sigh. Irrespective of your childish name calling, of the equipment NATO states are funneling into Ukraine, most hasn't been deployed yet because the Ukraine forces prefer to use the old Soviet hardware they're familiar with. More to the point, why do you take such pleasure in Putin's butchery of Ukraine?
Actually, they are fighting for themselves and their freedom, and would likely be fighting still regardless of help from the West.
So, what would you recommend them do? Lay down their weapons and be slaughtered like those in Bucha or Maruipal?
Have you ever wondered why people would rather fight to the death than be under Russian control? It doesn't say much about life under Russia if death is preferable, does it?
Well given the violent history that Russia has inflicted on Ukraine under Imperial Russia rulei& then during its 1st independence from in the from 1917 to the early 20 with the Bolsheviks. Then later with Stalin with Holodomor in the 30's through to the death of Stalin & then 80"s with Chernobyl.
The Ukranians have never trusted Russia & even when it give up it's WMD's & other Strategic Wpns. It sought guarantees from Russia under the Lisbon Protocol & the Budapest Memorandum that Russia won't interfere with it security or it's economic development to make its own decisions as a sovereign country.
But that all changed when Tsar Poot's managed to install his Toady President which to the lead to the 2014 uprising & old mate fled to Russia.
Poland, the Baltic States, Finland & Sweden are in the same boat as Ukraine atm & they would rather die than live back under a Russia Jackboot again. Thence they ended choosing to join NATO & the EU when they got the opportunity.
Unlike Ukraine who tried to give Neutrality a chance, but it wasn't going to work long term when Tsar Poot's is running Russia. So Ukranie tired to join NATO & the EU, but was blocked by Germany's use of its veto vote in NATO & EU by Merkel's German Government. Who was in Poot's back pocket as it wanted cheap Russia Gas IOT shut down its Nuclear & Coal powered power stations.
Yes, Scud – that part of the world has always operated that way.
Don't imagine for one minute that the Ukrainian propagandists or soldiers are any less prone to misbehavior than the Russians are. There are no innocents among the military and politicians making up the news.
Others say that the USA were behind that evil coup d'état of 2014.
My fear is that we are being fed lies from the Ukrainians that are approved of by our 5-eyes masters, and then dispersed to us in our mass media.
That would be a terrible situation if we fear escalation by either major party, because if we believe what we are being fed, we could well provoke that escalation.
And I fear that those patriots who approve of every report of innocent Ukranians being butchered and tortured by evil Russians – well, those ignorant idiots are silly people being duped by their own side's propaganda.
One aspect of Orwell's 1984 has come true: We have always been at war with….
Except, you know, it's not American territory being invaded and American civilians being abused and murdered. You do understand that Ukraine is, in fact, a sovereign nation with most of the skin in this conflict, yeah? Does it occur to you that a substantial number of the population don't want to have their existence dictated to them by Moscow? I mean, you'd have to be the worst kind of unempathetic nihilist not to understand Ukraine is fighting for its very existence. They've done the Russian client state thing before and they don't like it. The Holodomor is very much in the cultural memory.
The Ukraine was not being "dictated to by Russia". However, that was not the point, as far as the Ukranian Neo Nazis were concerned. They just seemed to hate everything Russian. Zelenskyy was elected as the “peace” candidate, which would seem to indicate that the majority of Ukrainians wanted peace with Russia. It was a pity their government thought otherwise.
The majority of Ukrainians no doubt did want peace with Russia … pity Putin chose to invade and try to take the country over, murder civilians and cause the largest refugee crisis in Europe since the WW2.
Riiiiiight. So by your logic an ANZAC invasion of the Solomon Islands would be completely justified because their defense agreement with China puts us in range of a Julang-3 in a few years.
A false equivalence. China could probably bomb us with something or other, even without a base on the Solomons. Besides, I doubt whether we represent any sort of threat to China.
How is it a false equivalence? The US has ICBMs and stealth bombers. They don't even need the NATO bases they already have had on or near the Russian border for decades. You can't even explain how a strictly defensive alliance is a threat to a major nuclear power.
And then there's the little issue of Kaliningrad, which NATO has never so much as made a peep about.
You're funny. You're also historically ignorant. There are still Ukrainians alive who remember the Holodomor – can't imagine why that might make them anti-Russian – maybe something happened in 2014 to upset them? As for the old "Nazi" line, maybe actually look at the make-up of the Ukraine Parliament before uttering such profound absurdities. Of course the majority of Ukrainians wanted peace with Russia – they also wanted their sovereignty. Apparently Putin thought otherwise.
They already had their sovereignty. They just didn't realize that their Nazi dominated government was about to give it away.
I'm inclined to think that, given the obvious hostility that exists between West and East, there ought to be well defined spheres of influence attributed to each. I believe a line of demarkation should extend from the Baltic sea in the North to the Black sea in the South. That would place Ukraine, as well as the Baltic states and Finland within the Russian sphere of influence. there are some who sneer at "Finlandization", but I think the Finns have it about right for the circumstances in which they find themselves.
Sovereignty includes the ability to decide your own defense and economic partnerships without seeking the permission of the neighbours, so clearly Putin was under the impression that Ukraine didn't have sovereignty and said so on more than one occasion.
Also maybe show some evidence of this "Nazi dominated government" – In the last election Svoboda and the other far-right parties only won 2.15% of the vote combined and didn't get seats in the Parliament.
As for "Finlandization", you might think the Finns had it about right, but they've clearly changed their mind on that front thanks to Putin. You know, seeing as they're rushing to join NATO.
Sovereignty includes the ability to decide your own defense and economic partnerships without seeking the permission of the neighbours,
Gaining and maintaining sovereignty can sometime entail taking care not to antagonise one's neighbours. The hoops that Finland had to jump through, after WWII, in order to restore friendly relations with Russia, and ensure its own sovereignty, after siding with Germany during the war, should perhaps be lesson of which all countries should all take heed.
As for "Finlandization", you might think the Finns had it about right, but they've clearly changed their mind on that front thanks to Putin. You know, seeing as they're rushing to join NATO.
Finland was both smart and successful after WWII; they would be fools to now away that success by joining NATO.
Perhaps you should stop conflating all western nations with the US and we might get somewhere.
US citizens, Joe Biden, Victoria Nuland, and the late John McCain, were in Kyiv around 2014, stirring things up. They are as much to blame as anybody for the current mess in Ukraine.
There some who have suggested that if Russia is allowed to "get away with" its invasion of Ukraine then the three gulf states will be the next to fall, and perhaps they will. It would certainly be in Russia's interest to extend its defensive position to the shores of the Baltic sea. The question is whether NATO would intervene and risk a nuclear war with Russia.
I don't think the US would want to see Washington, and perhaps New York, become the 21st century's Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Russia, I think, would be less squeamish. The US chickened out when Ukraine asked for a “no-fly” zone.
NATO obligations would become irrelevant if nuclear war was in the offing.
Parliamentary representation is irrelevant if you are integrated through the military and trained, funded, supplied weapons by Nato and the US. This is pretty much standard for controling US vassal states world wide.
Yes but the US still believes it has exceptional status and therefore is able to make and break the rules in the rules based world. The easiest way to enforce this is to train extremists that have no compunction taking lives to be the armed forces of client states. This mode of operating is entirely independent of the cold war and has become orders of manitude greater since the fall of the Soviet Union as has been demonstrated in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Honduras… Unsurprisingly, Russia has no intention of joining this list. Nor China nor Iran. At some point, the formation of Contra like and Al Quaida like armies must be resisted. Russia has reached the point where they no longer can tolerate extremists concentrating on their border and pounding Russian speaking civilians with artillery until invasion is the only option.
My prediction that the War would end after about a month with a peace deal involving greater autonomy in the Donbas and likely the pre-war status quo in Crimea was incorrect. Putin seems to be in it for the long haul now and looks to be aiming to annex most of the East and South of Ukraine. This is obviously unacceptable to the Ukrainian government and given the current Western support for them I expect a majore counter-attack effort from them in the next 2 weeks which could decide the outcome of the war. It is either stalemate or the Russians will be pushed out from territory gained since the start of the war in Feb and possibly more.
"I think I would regard it as a preemptive defensive strike,"
Riiiigth….. So if the goal of this "preemptive defensive strike" was to guard against future NATO expansion, then that hasn't worked out so well has it, with both Finland and Sweden keen to join up now, and all the extra NATO forces in existing NATO regions, and NATO more enthusiastic and united than ever.
Rather than a “preemptive defensive strike”, it looks more like an own-goal to me.
It was not only NATO expansion, despite the West's broken promise made to Gorbachev not to expand NATO. There was also the threatened invasion of Crimea.
Factcheck. NATO never promised not to expand to other countries. According to the article, any comments in that respect were in the context of German re-unification, and that claimed promise couldn't have related to current expansion because it simply wasn't a possibility at the time due to the Warsaw pact was in existence then. Also, there was never any formal agreement with respect to non-expansion of NATO.
The fact check article rates the claims as mostly false.
It is my understanding that the dissolution of the Warsaw pact was the quid pro quo for the promise, so the implication would be that NATO would not extend into the Warsaw pact countries.
If it were such a fundamental change as dissolving the Warsaw pact, then this would have been based on a formal agreement, that would have been formally documented. In which case, I look forward to you linking your source to such a formal agreement between the parties (if it exists).
Besides, you have already admitted that an agreement was made. Only you claim it only applied to East Germany. Which of course doesn't make sense because (1) the Warsaw pact was dissolved and (2) East Germany would be part of NATO anyway, once the two Germanies were unified.
So basically if I pre-emptively punched you in the balls because I believe I am psychic and can read minds, that would be completely justified and not the act of an aggressor? Okaaayyyy. Well that's… Interesting? Special?
I don't think Western prospects were better. I think the Europeans didn't want them, but were reluctant to admit that because Uncle Sam wanted Ukraine away from Russia.
I understand it would be against the rules for a country to join NATO if it was involved in a border dispute with another country, as was the case with Ukraine.
Ahem. Looking at the UN breakdown it was 3,403 civilian deaths caused by both sides, which is of course appalling. The rest of that number is around 4400 Ukraine forces, 6517 DPR and LPR militias, and the US State Department throws in an unconfirmed 400-500 Russian military personnel.
Hmmmm. It's going on for a lot longer than a "strike". From the same article:
Critics said the speech skirted some uncomfortable realities that Putin is facing: With the campaign in Ukraine faltering, he has not asked Russians to accept sacrifices to weather the sanctions and diplomatic isolation.
He also left unanswered the question of whether and how Russia will marshal more forces in the face of significant losses.
Maybe you should stop playing apologist for a slimy, genocidal, kleptocrat petro-oligarch would-be Tsar like you're making some big ideological statement.
No idea. Either he copied & pasted unformatted text straight into TS or he somehow lost the paragraph marks. If I had had more time and had seen it in time I could have re-formatted the Post here.
I don't think there is any serious dispute that Russia is the aggressor. If the invasion and civilian death toll, and rapes and tortures performed by Russian troops were not enough to establish this, the relocation of captured civilians ought to ring alarm bells – a number of minorities were exterminated in this way under the Soviets, and it was the method employed in the Armenian Genocide. The US had their own version, the Trail of Tears.
Yet the hard left who – many of whom still seem to secretly admire Stalin – still wants us to believe that the 'Great Satan' is the sole source of all the world's evils.
I'm not sure I'd call them "hard left", maybe republicans manque. But most of the atrocities they damn the US for, are presently being performed by their world leader of choice. We cannot really call them hypocrites – there's no thought happening there – they merely repeat the cant of their team.
there's no thought happening there – they merely repeat the cant of their team.
I don't think the is any doubt about Ukraine's aggression directed at the Donbas region. That's not just the 'cant of anybody's team'. Nor is Ukraine's desire to repossess Crimea, which could only be achieved through an invasion.
Oh no, we don't agree Mikesh. You have merely demonstrated my point – you are incapable of forming an argument, and simply bleat RT talking points like the sheep from Animal Farm. "Four legs good" and so forth.
Were you capable of debate, rather than talking about the casualties of the Donbas insurgency in isolation, you would produce some plausible scheme whereby the Ukrainian victims of Russian imperialism in the Donbas differed from those you have mentioned. There are quite a few of them, and while you fail to account for them you give every appearance of being a bigot.
Oh no, we don't agree Mikesh. You have merely demonstrated my point – you are incapable of forming an argument, and simply bleat RT talking points like the sheep from Animal Farm. "Four legs good" and so forth.
I think if you look back over my comments you will find plenty of arguments, arguments which bear no resemblance to the ad hominem nonsense above.
Were you capable of debate, rather than talking about the casualties of the Donbas insurgency in isolation, you would produce some plausible scheme whereby the Ukrainian victims of Russian imperialism in the Donbas differed from those you have mentioned.
The Eastern Ukranians wanted a level of autonomy, after the illegal ousting of Yanukovich in 2014, and the fascist coup; and for that purpose wanted to set up a federal system within the Ukraine. That was the reason for the government attacks on their region. Russia came to their defense , which was natural enough given Eastern Ukraine was mostly ethnically Russian. I suspect that the Russians may have had ulterior motives – they wanted to forestall Ukraine's entry into NATO – but the Ukrainians’ barbaric attacks were probably reason enough.
The Eastern Ukranians wanted a level of autonomy, after the illegal ousting of Yanukovich in 2014, and the fascist coup;
Putin wanted an invasion platform and a destabilizing insurgency. The Eastern Ukrainians were not consulted, because Putin is an authoritarian – democracy has no value for him, he considers it a vice. The fascist coup was the Russian occupation, and Donbas residents have been forced to join the Russian invasion as cannon meat. (https://mg.co.za/opinion/2022-04-12-cannon-meat-the-men-of-combat-age-stuck-in-ukraine/)
It's not an ad hom either, merely an accurate description – the lackeys of a murderous despot have no business pretending to be progressives – away with you!
If you insist in employing ad hominems instead rational arguments, you cannot blame me for calling you out as an ignoramus who doesn't know what he is talking about.
[Please check & correct your user name in the next comment, thanks]
Oh right. Radio Free Europe. I could supply numerous Russian video interviews of very grateful Mariupol citizens rescued from Azov. Also eye wilness accounts of civilians being shot by Azov as they attempt to escape the city. Your Radio Free Europe anonymous accounts only serve to bolster propaganda. They are substantially funded by NED, an acknowledged arm of the CIA.
RFE has a fairly good reputation for the integrity of its material. Certainly they select stories that favour certain views, but they are not keen on publishing fabricated material – nor do they need to, as Russia is not at all averse to outraging world opinion.
Disagree with much of this article but wish to focus on a common western trope which I think is delusional , namely ,
" In the end, it will likely result in a military defeat for Russia and humiliation for Putin."
If Russia were to take their gloves off and engage in total war i.e total destruction of infrastructure , power , fuel , water , communications , sewerage , & food distribution which they can do at will with stand off missiles , and were they to change their R.O.E to disregard civilian casualties then how can any rational thinking adult believe that Ukraine is going to win this war ?
Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 27 were:1. The Minister for Ford Rangers strikes againTransport Minister Simeon Brown was again the busiest of the Cabinet ministers this week, announcing an ...
You got a fast carAnd I want a ticket to anywhereMaybe we make a dealMaybe together we can get somewhereAny place is betterYesterday’s newsletter, Trust In Me, on the report of abuse in state care, and by religious organisations, between 1950 and 2019, coupled with the hypocrisy of Christopher Luxon ...
New Zealand is again having to reconcile conflicting pressures from its military and its trade interests. Should we join Pillar Two of AUKUS and risk compromising our markets in China? For a century after New Zealand was founded in 1840, its external security arrangements and external economics arrangements were aligned. ...
The ‘50 Shades of Green’ farmers’ protest in 2019 was heavy on climate change denial, but five years on, scepticism and criticism about the idea that pine forests can save us is growing across the board. File photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Here’s the top six news items of note in climate ...
This morning the sky was bright.The birds, in their usual joyous bliss. Nature doesn’t seem to feel the heat of what might angst humans.Their calls are clear and beautiful.Just some random thoughts:MāoriPaul Goldsmith has announced his government will roll back the judiciary’s rulings on Māori Customary Marine Title, which recognises ...
In 2003, the Court of Appeal delivered its decision in Ngati Apa v Attorney-General, ruling that Māori customary title over the foreshore and seabed had not been universally extinguished, and that the Māori Land Court could determine claims and confirm title if the facts supported it. This kicked off the ...
Earlier this week at Parliament, Labour leader Chris Hipkins was applauded for saying that the response to the final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care had to be “bigger than politics.” True, but the fine words, apologies and “we hear you” messages will soon ring ...
TL;DR: In news breaking this morning:The Ministry of Education is cutting $2 billion from its school building programme so the National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government has enough money to deliver tax cuts; The Government has quietly lowered its child poverty reduction targets to make them easier to achieve;Te Whatu Ora-Health NZ’s ...
Kia ora. These are some stories that caught our eye this week – as always, feel free to share yours in the comments. Our header image this week (via Eke Panuku) shows the planned upgrade for the Karanga Plaza Tidal Swimming Steps. The week in Greater Auckland On ...
1. What's not to love about the way the Harris campaign is turning things around?a. Nothingb. Love all of itc. God what a reliefd. Not that it will be by any means easye. All of the above 2. Documents released by the Ministry of Health show Associate Health Minister Casey ...
Trust in me in all you doHave the faith I have in youLove will see us through, if only you trust in meWhy don't you, you trust me?In a week that saw the release of the 3,000 page Abuse in Care report Christopher Luxon was being asked about Boot Camps. ...
TL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers last night features co-hosts and talking about the Royal Commission Inquiry into Abuse in Carereport released this week, and with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent on a UN push to not recognise carbon offset markets and ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 26, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Transport: Simeon Brown announced$802.9 million in funding for 18 new trains on the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines, which ...
The northern expressway extension from Warkworth to Whangarei is likely to require radical changes to legislation if it is going to be built within the foreseeable future. The Government’s powers to purchase land, the planning process and current restrictions on road tolling are all going to need to be changed ...
Text within this block will maintain its original spacing when publishedFirst they came for the doctors But I was confused by the numbers and costs So I didn't speak up Then they came for our police and nurses And I didn't think we could afford those costs anyway So I ...
Photo by Joshua J. Cotten on UnsplashWe’re back again after our mid-winter break. We’re still with the ‘new’ day of the week (Thursday rather than Friday) when we have our ‘hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kākā for an hour at 5 pm.Jump on this link on YouTube Livestream ...
Notes: This is a free article. Abuse in Care themes are mentioned. Video is at the bottom.BackgroundYesterday’s report into Abuse in Care revealed that at least 1 in 3 of all who went through state and faith based care were abused - often horrifically. At least, because not all survivors ...
Luxon speaks in Parliament yesterday about the Abuse in Care report. Photo: Hagen Hopkins/Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:PM Christopher Luxon said yesterday in tabling the Abuse in Carereport in Parliament he wanted to ‘do the ...
About a decade ago I worked with a bloke called Steve. He was the grizzled veteran coder, a few years older than me, who knew where the bodies were buried - code wise. Despite his best efforts to be approachable and friendly he could be kind of gruff, through to ...
Some of the recent announcements from the government have reminded us of posts we’ve written in the past. Here’s one from early 2020. There were plenty of reactions to the government’s infrastructure announcement a few weeks ago which saw them fund a bunch of big roading projects. One of ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Thursday, July 25 are:News: Why Electric Kiwi is closing to new customers - and why it matters RNZ’s Susan EdmundsScoop: Government drops ...
Hi,I felt a small wet tongue snaking through one of the holes in my Crocs. It explored my big toe, darting down one side, then the other. “He’s looking for some toe cheese,” said the woman next to me, words that still haunt me to this day.Growing up in New ...
Yesterday I happily quoted the Prime Minister without fact-checking him and sure enough, it turns out his numbers were all to hell. It’s not four kg of Royal Commission report, it’s fourteen.My friend and one-time colleague-in-comms Hazel Phillips gently alerted me to my error almost as soon as I’d hit ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Thursday, July 25, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day were:The Abuse in Care Royal Commission of Inquirypublished its final report yesterday.PM Christopher Luxon and The Minister responsible for ...
The Official Information Act has always been a battle between requesters seeking information, and governments seeking to control it. Information is power, so Ministers and government agencies want to manage what is released and when, for their own convenience, and legality and democracy be damned. Their most recent tactic for ...
TL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:Transport and Energy Minister Simeon Brown is accelerating plans to spend at least $10 billion through Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) to extend State Highway One as a four-lane ‘Expressway’ from Warkworth to Whangarei ...
I live my life (woo-ooh-ooh)With no control in my destinyYea-yeah, yea-yeah (woo-ooh-ooh)I can bleed when I want to bleedSo come on, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)You can bleed when you want to bleedYea-yeah, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)Everybody bleed when they want to bleedCome on and bleedGovernments face tough challenges. Selling unpopular decisions to ...
Please note:To skip directly to the- parliamentary footage in the video, scroll to 1:21 To skip to audio please click on the headphone iconon the left hand side of the screenThis video / audio section is under development. ...
Given the crackdown on wasteful government spending, it behooves me to point to a high profile example of spending by the Luxon government that looks like a big, fat waste of time and money. I’m talking about the deployment of NZDF personnel to support the US-led coalition in the Red ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:40 am on Wednesday, July 24 are:Deep Dive: Chipping away at the housing crisis, including my comments RNZ/Newsroom’s The DetailNews: Government softens on asset sales, ...
As I reported about the city centre, Auckland’s rail network is also going through a difficult and disruptive period which is rapidly approaching a culmination, this will result in a significant upgrade to the whole network. Hallelujah. Also like the city centre this is an upgrade predicated on the City ...
Today, a 4 kilogram report will be delivered to Parliament. We know this is what the report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care weighs, because our Prime Minister told us so.Some reporter had blindsided him by asking a question about something done by ...
TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Wednesday, July 24, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Beehive:Transport Minister Simeon Brownannounced plans to use PPPs to fund, build and run a four-lane expressway between Auckland ...
NewstalkZB host Mike Hosking, who can usually be relied on to give Prime Minister Christopher Luxon an easy run, did not do so yesterday when he interviewed him about the HealthNZ deficit. Luxon is trying to use a deficit reported last year by HealthNZ as yet another example of the ...
Back in January a StatsNZ employee gave a speech at Rātana on behalf of tangata whenua in which he insulted and criticised the government. The speech clearly violated the principle of a neutral public service, and StatsNZ started an investigation. Part of that was getting an external consultant to examine ...
Renting for life: Shared ownership initiatives are unlikely to slow the slide in home ownership by much. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:A Deloittereport for Westpac has projected Aotearoa’s home-ownership rate will ...
You're broken down and tiredOf living life on a merry go roundAnd you can't find the fighterBut I see it in you so we gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsWe gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsAnd I'll rise upI'll rise like the dayI'll rise upI'll rise unafraidI'll rise upAnd I'll ...
There’s been a change in Myers Park. Down the steps from St. Kevin’s Arcade, past the grassy slopes, the children’s playground, the benches and that goat statue, there has been a transformation. The underpass for Mayoral Drive has gone from a barren, grey, concrete tunnel, to a place that thrums ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Global society may have finally slammed on the brakes for climate-warming pollution released by human fossil fuel combustion. According to the Carbon Monitor Project, the total global climate pollution released between February and May 2024 declined slightly from the amount released during the same ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Tuesday, July 23 are:Deep Dive: Penlink: where tolling rhetoric meets reality BusinessDesk-$$$’sOliver LewisScoop:Te Pūkenga plans for regional polytechs leak out ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Tuesday, July 23, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Health: Shane Reti announcedthe Board of Te Whatu Ora-Health New Zealand was being replaced with Commissioner Lester Levy ...
Health NZ warned the Government at the end of March that it was running over Budget. But the reasons it gave were very different to those offered by the Prime Minister yesterday. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon blamed the “botched merger” of the 20 District Health Boards (DHBs) to create Health ...
Long ReadKey Summary: Although National increased the health budget by $1.4 billion in May, they used an old funding model to project health system costs, and never bothered to update their pre-election numbers. They were told during the Health Select Committees earlier in the year their budget amount was deficient, ...
As a momentous, historic weekend in US politics unfolded, analysts and commentators grasped for precedents and comparisons to help explain the significance and power of the choice Joe Biden had made. The 46th president had swept the Democratic party’s primaries but just over 100 days from the election had chosen ...
TL;DR: I’m casting around for new ideas and ways of thinking about Aotearoa’s political economy to find a few solutions to our cascading and self-reinforcing housing, poverty and climate crises.Associate Professor runs an online masters degree in the economics of sustainability at Torrens University in Australia and is organising ...
The Finance and Expenditure Committee has reported back on National's Local Government (Water Services Preliminary Arrangements) Bill. The bill sets up water for privatisation, and was introduced under urgency, then rammed through select committee with no time even for local councils to make a proper submission. Naturally, national's select committee ...
Some years ago, I bought a book at Dunedin’s Regent Booksale for $1.50. As one does. Vandrad the Viking (1898), by J. Storer Clouston, is an obscure book these days – I cannot find a proper online review – but soon it was sitting on my shelf, gathering dust alongside ...
History is not on the side of the centre-left, when Democratic presidents fall behind in the polls and choose not to run for re-election. On both previous occasions in the past 75 years (Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1968) the Democrats proceeded to then lose the White House ...
This is a free articleCoverageThis morning, US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race. And that is genuinely newsworthy. Thanks for your service, President Biden, and all the best to you and yours.However, the media in New Zealand, particularly the 1News nightly bulletin, has been breathlessly covering ...
A homeless person’s camp beside a blocked-off slipped damage walkway in Freeman’s Bay: we are chasing our tail on our worsening and inter-related housing, poverty and climate crises. Photo: Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy ...
What has happened to it all?Crazy, some'd sayWhere is the life that I recognise?(Gone away)But I won't cry for yesterdayThere's an ordinary worldSomehow I have to findAnd as I try to make my wayTo the ordinary worldYesterday morning began as many others - what to write about today? I began ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Monday, July 22 are:Today’s Must Read: Father and son live in a tent, and have done for four years, in a million ...
TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Monday, July 22, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:US President Joe Biden announced via X this morning he would not stand for a second term.Multinational professional services firm ...
A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 14, 2024 thru Sat, July 20, 2024. Story of the week As reflected by preponderance of coverage, our Story of the Week is Project 2025. Until now traveling ...
This weekend, a friend pointed out someone who said they’d like to read my posts, but didn’t want to pay. And my first reaction was sympathy.I’ve already told folks that if they can’t comfortably subscribe, and would like to read, I’d be happy to offer free subscriptions. I don’t want ...
National: The Party of ‘Law and Order’ IntroductionThis weekend, the Government formally kicked off one of their flagship policy programs: a military style boot camp that New Zealand has experimented with over the past 50 years. Cartoon credit: Guy BodyIt’s very popular with the National Party’s Law and Orderimage, ...
Day one of the solo leg of my long journey home begins with my favourite sound: footfalls in an empty street. 5.00 am and it’s already light and already too warm, almost.If I can make the train that leaves Budapest later this hour I could be in Belgrade by nightfall; ...
Do you remember Y2K, the threat that hung over humanity in the closing days of the twentieth century? Horror scenarios of planes falling from the sky, electronic payments failing and ATMs refusing to dispense cash. As for your VCR following instructions and recording your favourite show - forget about it.All ...
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts being questioned by The Kākā’s Bernard Hickey.TL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 20 were:1. A strategy that fails Zero Carbon Act & Paris targetsThe National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government finally unveiled ...
Summary:As New Zealand loses at least 12 leaders in the public service space of health, climate, and pharmaceuticals, this month alone, directly in response to the Government’s policies and budget choices, what lies ahead may be darker than it appears. Tui examines some of those departures and draws a long ...
The Minister of Housing’s ambition is to reduce markedly the ratio of house prices to household incomes. If his strategy works it would transform the housing market, dramatically changing the prospects of housing as an investment.Leaving aside the Minister’s metaphor of ‘flooding the market’ I do not see how the ...
As previously noted, my historical fantasy piece, set in the fifth-century Mediterranean, was accepted for a Pirate Horror anthology, only for the anthology to later fall through. But in a good bit of news, it turned out that the story could indeed be re-marketed as sword and sorcery. As of ...
An employee of tobacco company Philip Morris International demonstrates a heated tobacco device. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Friday, July 19 are:At a time when the Coalition Government is cutting spending on health, infrastructure, education, housing ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 8:30 am on Friday, July 19 are:Scoop: NZ First Minister Casey Costello orders 50% cut to excise tax on heated tobacco products. The minister has ...
Kia ora, it’s time for another Friday roundup, in which we pull together some of the links and stories that caught our eye this week. Feel free to add more in the comments! Our header image this week shows a foggy day in Auckland town, captured by Patrick Reynolds. ...
TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. A discussion recorded yesterday is in the video above and the audio of that sent onto the podcast feed.The Government released its draft Emissions Reduction ...
Save some money, get rich and old, bring it back to Tobacco Road.Bring that dynamite and a crane, blow it up, start all over again.Roll up. Roll up. Or tailor made, if you prefer...Whether you’re selling ciggies, digging for gold, catching dolphins in your nets, or encouraging folks to flutter ...
Waiting In The Wings:For truly, if Trump is America’s un-assassinated Caesar, then J.D. Vance is America’s Octavian, the Republic’s youthful undertaker – and its first Emperor.DONALD TRUMP’S SELECTION of James D. Vance as his running-mate bodes ill for the American republic. A fervent supporter of Viktor Orban, the “illiberal” prime ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 19, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:The PSAannounced the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) had ruled in the PSA’s favour in its case against the Ministry ...
Te Rangi e tu nei (The sky above us) Te Papa e takoto nei (The land beneath us) Tatou katoa te hunga ora (To us all the living) Tena koutou katoa (Greetings) ...
A late change to charter school legislation will cheat educators out of fair pay and negotiating power proving charter schools are just a vehicle to make profit out of our education system. ...
In 2004 te iwi Māori rallied against the Crown’s attempt to confiscate our coastlines and moana with the Foreshore and Seabed Act. This led to the largest hīkoi of a generation and the birth of Te Pāti Māori. 20 years later, history is repeating itself. Today the government has announced ...
It has been five and a half years since the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care was established to investigate the abuse of children, young people, and vulnerable adults within state and faith-based institutions. Yesterday, the final report - Whanaketia through pain and trauma, from darkness to light ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to take action off the back of the International Court of Justice ruling on Israel’s illegal occupation of Palestine. ...
On Friday the International Court of Justice reaffirmed what Palestinian’s have been telling us for decades: that the occupation and colonisation of Palestinian lands by Israel is illegal and must end immediately. They also called for reparations for Palestinian’s who have lived under Israeli occupation since it began in 1967. ...
Labour calls on the Government to act after the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that Israel’s occupation of Palestinian Territories is illegal. ...
The 53.7 percent rise in benefit sanctions over the last year is more proof of this Government’s disdain for our communities most in need of support. ...
Aotearoa could be a country where every child grows up feeling safe, loved and with a sense of belonging in their whānau and community. But for some of our children, this is far from reality. Instead, they are trapped in a maze of intergenerational harm that they can’t escape on ...
Te Pāti Māori are calling for David Seymour to resign as Associate Health Minister in response to his call for Pharmac to ignore the Treaty of Waitangi. “This announcement is just another example of the government’s anti-Tiriti, anti-Māori agenda.” Said Co-leader and spokesperson for health, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. “Seymour thinks it ...
The soaring price of renting is driving the rise of inflation in this country - with latest figures from Stats NZ showing rents are up 4.8 per cent on average while annual inflation is at 3.3 per cent. ...
National’s Emissions Reduction Plan will take New Zealand further from the economy we need to ensure the next generation has a stable climate and secure livelihoods. ...
Following consultation with named parties and thorough consideration of privacy interests, the Green Party is in a position to release the Executive Summary of the final report from the independent investigation into Darleen Tana. ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon should be asking serious questions of his Minister for Resources Shane Jones now it’s been revealed he misled the public about a dinner with mining companies that he didn’t declare and said wasn’t pre-arranged. ...
Te Pāti Māori have submitted to the Justice Select Committee against the Sentencing (Reinstating Three Strikes) Amendment Bill. The bill will further entrench racism in our justice system and fails to focus on rehabilitation. “Reinstating Three Strikes will empower a systematically racist system and exacerbate the overrepresentation of Māori in ...
The Transport and Infrastructure Committee is set to make a determination on the Residential Tenancies Amendment (RTA) Bill in the coming weeks. “This legislation will give landlords the power to kick our whānau out onto the street for no reason” said Housing spokesperson, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “Their solution to the housing ...
“National’s campaign was about tackling crime and the best they can do is a two-year long Ministerial Advisory Group,” Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said. ...
“There are more examples of charter schools failing their students than there are success stories. The coalition Government is driving to dismantle our public school system and instead promote a privatised, competitive structure that puts profits before kids,” Jan Tinetti said. ...
“This government is choosing to deliberately mislead and withhold information, keeping our people in the dark about this government’s agenda and the future of our mokopuna,” said co-leader and spokesperson for Health, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. The call comes after the demand from the Chief Ombudsman that Associate Minister of Health, Casey ...
“Today’s climate announcement by Simon Watts makes clear the National Government is simply paying lip service to meeting its climate change targets,” Megan Woods said. ...
National is choosing to make life harder for workers by taking away the rights our communities have fought hard for. Here's how they’re taking workers backwards. ...
Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on the need for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and the risk of expanded conflict between Hizballah and Israel. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The human suffering is unacceptable. It cannot continue. We remain unequivocal in our condemnation of ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today reminded all State and faith-based institutions of their legal obligation to preserve records relevant to the safety and wellbeing of those in its care. “The Abuse in Care Inquiry’s report has found cases where records of the most vulnerable people in State and faith‑based institutions were ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government’s online safety website for children and young people has reached one million page views. “It is great to see so many young people and their families accessing the site Keep It Real Online to learn how to stay safe online, and manage ...
Tēnā tātou katoa, Ngā mihi te rangi, ngā mihi te whenua, ngā mihi ki a koutou, kia ora mai koutou. Thank you for the opportunity to be here and the invitation to speak at this 50th anniversary conference. I acknowledge all those who have gone before us and paved the ...
New Zealand’s payroll providers have successfully prepared to ensure 3.5 million individuals will, from Wednesday next week, be able to keep more of what they earn each pay, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Revenue Minister Simon Watts. “The Government's tax policy changes are legally effective from Wednesday. Delivering this tax ...
An experimental vineyard which will help futureproof the wine sector has been opened in Blenheim by Associate Regional Development Minister Mark Patterson. The covered vineyard, based at the New Zealand Wine Centre – Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa, enables controlled environmental conditions. “The research that will be produced at the Experimental ...
The Coalition Government has confirmed the indicative regional breakdown of North Island Weather Event (NIWE) funding for state highway recovery projects funded through Budget 2024, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Regions in the North Island suffered extensive and devastating damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Floods, and ...
Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, will visit New Zealand next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced. “Indonesia is important to New Zealand’s security and economic interests and is our closest South East Asian neighbour,” says Mr Peters, who is currently in Laos to engage with South East Asian partners. ...
He aha te kai a te rangatira? He kōrero, he kōrero, he kōrero. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the aspirations of Ngāti Maniapoto, Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka says. “My thanks to Te Nehenehenui Trust – Ngāti Maniapoto for bringing their important kōrero to a ministerial ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has thanked outgoing Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority, Janice Fredric, for her service to the board.“I have received Ms Fredric’s resignation from the role of Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority,” Mr Brown says.“On behalf of the Government, I want to thank Ms Fredric for ...
The Government is proposing legislation to overturn a Court of Appeal decision and amend the Marine and Coastal Area Act in order to restore Parliament’s test for Customary Marine Title, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “Section 58 required an applicant group to prove they have exclusively used and occupied ...
Regulation Minister David Seymour says that opposition parties have united in bad faith, opposing what they claim are ‘dangerous changes’ to the Early Childhood Education sector, despite no changes even being proposed yet. “Issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation, has led ...
After receiving more than 740 submissions in the first 20 days, Regulation Minister David Seymour is asking the Ministry for Regulation to extend engagement on the early childhood education regulation review by an extra two weeks. “The level of interest has been very high, and from the conversations I’ve been ...
The Coalition Government is investing $802.9 million into the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines as part of a funding agreement with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, and the Greater Wellington and Horizons Regional Councils to deliver more reliable services for commuters in the lower North Island, Transport Minister Simeon ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced his intention to appoint a Crown Manager to both Hawke’s Bay Regional and Wairoa District Councils to speed up the delivery of flood protection work in Wairoa."Recent severe weather events in Wairoa this year, combined with damage from Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have ...
Mr Speaker, this is a day that many New Zealanders who were abused in State care never thought would come. It’s the day that this Parliament accepts, with deep sorrow and regret, the Report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care. At the heart of this report are the ...
For the first time, the Government is formally acknowledging some children and young people at Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital experienced torture. The final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care “Whanaketia – through pain and trauma, from darkness to light,” was tabled in Parliament ...
The Government has acknowledged the nearly 2,400 courageous survivors who shared their experiences during the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse in State and Faith-Based Care. The final report from the largest and most complex public inquiry ever held in New Zealand, the Royal Commission Inquiry “Whanaketia – through ...
With a week to go before hard-working New Zealanders see personal income tax relief for the first time in fourteen years, 513,000 people have used the Budget tax calculator to see how much they will benefit, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis. “Tax relief is long overdue. From next Wednesday, personal income ...
Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says a bill that has passed its first reading will improve parental leave settings and give non-biological parents more flexibility as primary carer for their child. The Regulatory Systems Amendment Bill (No3), passed its first reading this morning. “It includes a change ...
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This war needs to end yesterday and never would have started but for the destructive tentacles of the USA .Negotiation not more weapons .Allowing america to add another notch to their failed state belt could be the last act of a doomed planet .
So basically your position is that Ukraine deserved it because her skirt was too short and she was flirting with other boys? Is that the gist?
populuxe1 – wtf?
But yes Ukraine is getting what they deserve. Zelenski and his war machine have had years to sort this out. Well they are getting sorted now and there's fuck all the yanks can actually do about it. I hope Bidens wardogs lose to Trump in the next election as a blowback for funding this madness.
The Ukraine civilians are the big losers, and don't deserve any of this,
I want NZ to send aid only to the civilians only. Zelenski and his army can go to hell, and they certainly are!
Yup – her skirt was too short. Musta been gagging for it.
I want what he's smoking.
I guess aside from the tiny inconvenient fact that Ukraine did not attack Russian territory, and indeed gave up its nuclear arsenal to be less of a threat. We will probably also have to ignore the utter absurdity of any country casually attacking a country with a nuclear arsenal like Russia.
I suppose you'd prefer it if the Russian forces just assaulted and murdered Ukrainian civilians while the Ukraine military did nothing? What a curious mind you have.
I think they were on the point of invading Crimea, which of course is part of Russia. There was also the matter of the attacks on Donbass etc. which was mostly populated by ethnic Russians.
There is zero evidence that Ukraine was going to send troops to or attack the ukraine in any manner whatsoever.
The fighting/skirmishes in the Donbas region of Ukraine has been going on for somet time why did Putin decide to attack now and why did he try to seize control of the entire country and murder thousands nowhere near the Donbas region ?
Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries on earth.
Zelensky an ex comic/actor is playing the biggest role in his life….the Pandora papers show his pockets are…bulging.
There is no democracy in Ukraine,and the average wage is $400 a month..hardly nirvana.
Ukraine has outlawed speaking Russian,1 of the top 10 spoken languages in…the world.
This war is an avoidable..tragedy.
Ukraine has not outlawed the speaking of Russians. Zelensky is a native Russian speaker so why would he outlaw it? You are making up facts.
This I found on Quora…
'They banned education in Russian.
They banned the ability to speak Russian at school (teachers can be fired for this).
They banned the ability to speak Russian at work (you can be fined or fired for this).
They banned the ability to speak Russian for politics (even politics like the president can’t speak Russian)
Also cinema, theater, excursions, etc, etc.
You can’t even sign in Russian in public in some cities like Lviv.
'It is allowed to speak Russian in private but illegal to provide services in Russian unless specifically asked by customer. So, people in absolutely russian–speaking cities obliged to address customers in ukrainian because they can be fined if some ukrainian from Western Ukraine complains.'
So its not totally banned as you say.
It looks very much like the Ukranians were looking to protect and promote their cultural language. If it was Te Reo we were talking about you would be all for it.
What an idiotic comparison! Te Reo is adding a language to include another culture. Ukraine deleted Russian to persecute a large sector of their population. Estimated native speakers of Russian in Ukraine are 40%!
It is not illegal to provide services in Russian. The law you are referring to states that the service must be made available in Ukrainian UNLESS the customer requests otherwise. In this regard it is similar to what happens in Quebec with French. I disagree with the policy but it is not the same as making speaking another language illegal as you suggest.
Sorry, but you really are very wrong. There is ample evidence from the OSCE that artillery fire from the Ukraine side into Donbass increased by a factor of 30 in the days before the 24th starting on the 16th. Biden knew this barrage had begun when he asserted an imminent invasion and that Putin was already under pressure to take seriously the hell that was being created for Russian speakers in Ukraine
I understand Putin tried over and over again to get Zelenskyy to the negotiating table, but Zelenskyy refused. The invasion was probably the last straw.
Apparently there were movements of crack troops towards Donbas just prior to the invasion. Those could have been preparation for a concerted attack on Donetsk, or possibly to support an invasion of Crimea; ie to cut off a possible counterattack from the East.
Ukraine is known to have a policy of recovering Crimea
POP just a point of fact,they were never Ukraine's nukes.go sit in the corner.
They were Ukraine's nukes the moment the Soviet Union dissolved on 26 December 1991. Someone should have been more careful where they left their toys.
Given that nukes were supplied by the Soviets, there is no implication that Ukraine was entitled to hold on to them once the Soviet Union ceased to exist. The same would apply to Ukraine’s "ownership" of Crimea.
This would be the same Crimea transferred to the Ukraine SSR on the authority of the Supreme Soviet on 19 February 1954 would it?
Now I'm no fancy book-learning diplomat or international lawyer, but given no agreement was ratified transferring either back to Russia with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and Ukraine wasn't a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, there is no case to answer.
When the assignment was made in 1954, I don't think it was envisaged that Crimea would ever fall into the hands of the West. One would suppose that that was never part of the deal. Clearly, with Ukraine moving Westwards, Crimea should have reverted to Russian control.
"Fall into the hands of the West"
It's fascinating watching someone condemning Western economic imperialism while quite brazenly defending Russian neo-imperial rechavism. It really is.
As "fascinating" as it may be to watch, I still consider it sensible for Russia to defend itself against Western Imperialism.
The occasional paragraph would make this easier to read and digest!
Grammarly is an app for that
I echo the comment about paragraphs. Perhaps you could edit this and add a few appropriate paragraphs to make reading a bit easier.
I think this conflict may not last as long as what people think.
Firstly, Russia may well start running low on ammo soon. There have been a number of well publicised attacks on Russian ammo dumps, including in the major Russian staging area of Belgorod. But more importantly, there has just been a huge fire at a major weapons factory in Perm, Russia. This factory manufactures rockets, missiles, and shells used in the Russian war effort. I understand it is the second largest in Russia.
Fires and other sabotage activity in the Belgorod region are relatively close to Ukraine, and are likely due to Ukrainian attacks. But there have been a lot of fires in other key industries well outside of Ukrainian artillery or missile range, and much deeper into Russia. So, it could potentially be that Russian dissidents themselves are attacking some of this infrastructure.
So, this type of activity is going to have an effect on the ability for Russians to resupply their forces with ammunition. Compounding this are the effect of sanctions since many Russian complex military systems and weapons rely on electronics from the US and other western nations meaning the Russians are trying to find work-arounds to get these products.
Secondly, however, on the Ukrainian side of the equation, the Ukrainians are already causing the Russians a lot of trouble before the heavy weapons on the field have even arrived. Once the Ukrainians have these heavy weapons, they will have an endless supply of western ammunition.
Also, the western artillery being provided has longer range than the Russian artillery. That, combined with the counter-battery radar being supplied by the west, will help the Ukrainians accurately target the Russian artillery.
So, there will soon likely be a situation where Russia is struggling for ammunition, and Ukraine is able to destroy the Russian artillery that is the cornerstone of the Russian military war method.
Therefore, I expect within the next month or so that the Ukrainians will be able to start pushing the Russians back out of Ukraine.
Well Nancy Pelosi and her esteemed delegation were/are in the Ukraine.
They have inspiring messages…'we're in it to…win….it'!…and we'll be here til the ..end.
Not seen much dialogue about a negotiated peace settlement from…the U.S.
They are ramping up the supply of 'bullets' for the Ukraine to fire amid the death and…destruction however.
I think the Russians scuppered any hope of a peace deal due to all the war crimes they committed in Bucha, and the fact that they seem intent on erasing the Ukrainian nation.
Why would Ukraine be interested in a peace deal at all, especially when they see they have the chance to push the Russians right out of Ukraine.
One of the first things I think the Ukrainians will do once they have the right equipment from the west is to hit the Crimean bridge that connects Russia to Crimea. This would create a huge problem for the Russians, and as you can see from the article, not something they would be very happy about.
Why would Ukraine be interested in a peace deal at all, especially when they see they have the chance to push the Russians right out of Ukraine.
I think it is the Americans who are trying to push the Russians out of Ukraine, using the Ukranians as dupes. They have been trying since around 2014.
Portraying the Ukrainian people as unwilling dupes of the west is errant nonsense.
Their remembered history of russian/soviet behaviour over the last century combined with they fierce resistance to the russian invasion overwhelming supported by the majority of their population combined with the exodus of millions of civilians to western aligned countries suggests you are the dupe not the ukrainian people.
Mikesh has it about right. It has taken huge amounts of money thrown at extremists by the US in their usual way to create the current situation. 2014 was a US manufactured coup that gave Nato access to fanatics that could be trained and nurtured. Even at the point of the election of Zelenski, the people of Ukraine rejected the obvious extremism of Poroshenko. Zelenski was elected as the outsider that pledged to act on the minsk accords which would have ended hostilities in Donbass and Luhansk
Sure, Yanukovych's blatant corruption couldn't possibly have had anything to do with Euromaidan gaining popularity. Yes, they had money from Washington. Yanukovych was in the pocket of Moscow, but apparently that's OK, and we'll just ignore those inconvenient democratic elections since then.
Well, if corruption is the only metric, Zelenski has quite a large footprint in the pandora papers. As for the elections, he had overwhelming support from the Russian speaking LDNR on the promise of following through on the Minsk agreements. As the link shows, he sold out.
It's not the only metric. There's always good old blood on the ground and civilian death tolls. You just really hate the idea of Ukrainians having any agency.
I'm pretty sure the issue with the Euromaidan was the desire to "do a deal with Europe. Hence the name Euromaidan. the illegal coup which ousted Yanukovich was occasioned by his accepting an economics assistance deal from Russia, when Europe appeared to dragging the chain.
Rather amusing given Russia was hardly in a position to give economic assistance to anyone. Why is it that you can't condemn US militarism without playing apologist for Putin. I can. It's easy. US and Russian imperialism are both bad. See? Easy.
Russia has been giving economic assistance to numerous 3rd world countries for..decades…real aid…not debt bearing aid that is paid to western corporations.
Russia gives SFA – $8 per capita.
We give $90.75 and Norway $812.58.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_development_aid_country_donors
Funny how it seems to go hand in hand with recognising places like Abkhazia and South Ossetia though…
Russia’s foreign aid re-emerges (aiddata.org)
' The first table is based on official development assistance (ODA) figures published by the OECD for members of its Development Assistance Committee (DAC).
The West call creating debt=aid.
The 'aid' gets paid to western corporations…and the recipient country gets landed with the interest and principal.When they default it becomes a lever to remainder..resources.
As it happens Russia gave 15 billion dollars (I think that was the amount) in 2014, with no strings attached. This was what riled the Euromaidan protesters. Some people just don't know when they're well off. Apparently they'd have preferred a much smaller conditional deal from the Europeans.
Not unwilling dupes. Just dupes. Though I suspect they may have been less willing had Trump been reelected.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/05/ukraines-army-is-in-very-bad-state-more-fighting-will-only-destroy-it.html#more
Ukraine is very brave fighting on behalf of the USA.
The Ukrainian military still has a large pool of military aged and trained personnel to draw reinforcements from as a result of the mobilisation orders issued at the start of the war and is receiving massive amounts of military equipment from Western nations. Russia on the other hand is depleting it's professional military wing and is restricted from replenishing the troops in Ukraine with the decision not to declare this a war. The Russians advances in the areas they are attacking on are measured in a few kilometers per day if that and they are losing the momentum and initiative.
From commenter Dave from Austin at the naked capitalism website:
The recent decision to send 40 155 mm track-mounted howitzers to the Ukraine has led to the delivery of the same howitzers to Taiwan to be delayed from 2023 to 2026. And this is just 40 howitzers; in WW II we were producing 1,000/month. De-industrialization has come home to roost
So maybe its Nato thats a little short on weaponry? I mean, a lot is getting blown up as soon as it arrives. Might have to delay the plan of lighting another fire in Taiwan by a few years. Not to mention Israel. They are used to cargo planes arriving on call to resupply missiles rained down on pesky Palestinians but are they now going to have to get in behind first Ukraine, then Taiwan?
The age of the howitzers isn't the point. The point is they are being supplied with counter-battery radar that ups the effectiveness of the artillery to modern standards. The radar allows the Ukrainians to identify the source of incoming artillery fire then target the source and take it out.
I have seen no reports to suggest that large quantities of supplied military aid is being successfully targeted, and how could the Russians possibly validate such a claim?
Do you really think the Ukrainians are so stupid not to realise that the Russians are targeting their stuff, and therefore don't take countermeasures such as splitting their gear into many smaller, distributed locations, setting up decoy warehouses and the like?
Aside from Javelins and Turkish-made drones, little weaponry from NATO states has been deployed yet. Ukraine is still on its old Soviet era MiGs and tanks.
Don't you know that the U.S.A is a member of NATO..or are you just complete meathead?
Sigh. Irrespective of your childish name calling, of the equipment NATO states are funneling into Ukraine, most hasn't been deployed yet because the Ukraine forces prefer to use the old Soviet hardware they're familiar with. More to the point, why do you take such pleasure in Putin's butchery of Ukraine?
If you don't accept that U.S weaponery is being used by Ukraine on a major scale in this conflict,you are not up to date.
I take no pleasure in this tragic conflict.
The U.S don't appear to want to negotiate.
Their strategy appears to be to weaken Russia as it deploys its military resources and ramp up…sanctions.
You don't mean "negotiate", you mean "partition". Didn't work out great for India
Actually, they are fighting for themselves and their freedom, and would likely be fighting still regardless of help from the West.
So, what would you recommend them do? Lay down their weapons and be slaughtered like those in Bucha or Maruipal?
Have you ever wondered why people would rather fight to the death than be under Russian control? It doesn't say much about life under Russia if death is preferable, does it?
Well given the violent history that Russia has inflicted on Ukraine under Imperial Russia rulei& then during its 1st independence from in the from 1917 to the early 20 with the Bolsheviks. Then later with Stalin with Holodomor in the 30's through to the death of Stalin & then 80"s with Chernobyl.
The Ukranians have never trusted Russia & even when it give up it's WMD's & other Strategic Wpns. It sought guarantees from Russia under the Lisbon Protocol & the Budapest Memorandum that Russia won't interfere with it security or it's economic development to make its own decisions as a sovereign country.
But that all changed when Tsar Poot's managed to install his Toady President which to the lead to the 2014 uprising & old mate fled to Russia.
Poland, the Baltic States, Finland & Sweden are in the same boat as Ukraine atm & they would rather die than live back under a Russia Jackboot again. Thence they ended choosing to join NATO & the EU when they got the opportunity.
Unlike Ukraine who tried to give Neutrality a chance, but it wasn't going to work long term when Tsar Poot's is running Russia. So Ukranie tired to join NATO & the EU, but was blocked by Germany's use of its veto vote in NATO & EU by Merkel's German Government. Who was in Poot's back pocket as it wanted cheap Russia Gas IOT shut down its Nuclear & Coal powered power stations.
Yes, Scud – that part of the world has always operated that way.
Don't imagine for one minute that the Ukrainian propagandists or soldiers are any less prone to misbehavior than the Russians are. There are no innocents among the military and politicians making up the news.
Others say that the USA were behind that evil coup d'état of 2014.
My fear is that we are being fed lies from the Ukrainians that are approved of by our 5-eyes masters, and then dispersed to us in our mass media.
That would be a terrible situation if we fear escalation by either major party, because if we believe what we are being fed, we could well provoke that escalation.
And I fear that those patriots who approve of every report of innocent Ukranians being butchered and tortured by evil Russians – well, those ignorant idiots are silly people being duped by their own side's propaganda.
One aspect of Orwell's 1984 has come true: We have always been at war with….
Paranoid much?
Are you claiming the Russian Military hasn't carried out War crimes in Ukraine?
No, I am claiming that it is likely that some could be faked, and it is highly likely that both sides have carried out atrocities.
Except, you know, it's not American territory being invaded and American civilians being abused and murdered. You do understand that Ukraine is, in fact, a sovereign nation with most of the skin in this conflict, yeah? Does it occur to you that a substantial number of the population don't want to have their existence dictated to them by Moscow? I mean, you'd have to be the worst kind of unempathetic nihilist not to understand Ukraine is fighting for its very existence. They've done the Russian client state thing before and they don't like it. The Holodomor is very much in the cultural memory.
The Ukraine was not being "dictated to by Russia". However, that was not the point, as far as the Ukranian Neo Nazis were concerned. They just seemed to hate everything Russian. Zelenskyy was elected as the “peace” candidate, which would seem to indicate that the majority of Ukrainians wanted peace with Russia. It was a pity their government thought otherwise.
The majority of Ukrainians no doubt did want peace with Russia … pity Putin chose to invade and try to take the country over, murder civilians and cause the largest refugee crisis in Europe since the WW2.
Yes. It was a pity the Ukranians gave him reason to believe he had to.
Riiiiiight. So by your logic an ANZAC invasion of the Solomon Islands would be completely justified because their defense agreement with China puts us in range of a Julang-3 in a few years.
A false equivalence. China could probably bomb us with something or other, even without a base on the Solomons. Besides, I doubt whether we represent any sort of threat to China.
How is it a false equivalence? The US has ICBMs and stealth bombers. They don't even need the NATO bases they already have had on or near the Russian border for decades. You can't even explain how a strictly defensive alliance is a threat to a major nuclear power.
And then there's the little issue of Kaliningrad, which NATO has never so much as made a peep about.
Clearly, Putin saw Ukraine's as a threat. I doubt whether china sees us as a threat.
I see pink elephants as a threat. Can I pre-emptively invade them?
I see pink elephants as a threat. Can I pre-emptively invade them?
Sure. Why not. However, most of us don't see pink elephants. Perhaps our alcohol intake is insufficient.
You're funny. You're also historically ignorant. There are still Ukrainians alive who remember the Holodomor – can't imagine why that might make them anti-Russian – maybe something happened in 2014 to upset them? As for the old "Nazi" line, maybe actually look at the make-up of the Ukraine Parliament before uttering such profound absurdities. Of course the majority of Ukrainians wanted peace with Russia – they also wanted their sovereignty. Apparently Putin thought otherwise.
They already had their sovereignty. They just didn't realize that their Nazi dominated government was about to give it away.
I'm inclined to think that, given the obvious hostility that exists between West and East, there ought to be well defined spheres of influence attributed to each. I believe a line of demarkation should extend from the Baltic sea in the North to the Black sea in the South. That would place Ukraine, as well as the Baltic states and Finland within the Russian sphere of influence. there are some who sneer at "Finlandization", but I think the Finns have it about right for the circumstances in which they find themselves.
Sovereignty includes the ability to decide your own defense and economic partnerships without seeking the permission of the neighbours, so clearly Putin was under the impression that Ukraine didn't have sovereignty and said so on more than one occasion.
Also maybe show some evidence of this "Nazi dominated government" – In the last election Svoboda and the other far-right parties only won 2.15% of the vote combined and didn't get seats in the Parliament.
As for "Finlandization", you might think the Finns had it about right, but they've clearly changed their mind on that front thanks to Putin. You know, seeing as they're rushing to join NATO.
Sovereignty includes the ability to decide your own defense and economic partnerships without seeking the permission of the neighbours,
Gaining and maintaining sovereignty can sometime entail taking care not to antagonise one's neighbours. The hoops that Finland had to jump through, after WWII, in order to restore friendly relations with Russia, and ensure its own sovereignty, after siding with Germany during the war, should perhaps be lesson of which all countries should all take heed.
As for "Finlandization", you might think the Finns had it about right, but they've clearly changed their mind on that front thanks to Putin. You know, seeing as they're rushing to join NATO.
Finland was both smart and successful after WWII; they would be fools to now away that success by joining NATO.
Oh just stop it. The bootlicking is unseemly.
Oh just stop it. The bootlicking is unseemly.
Right. Leave Uncle Sam's boots alone.
Perhaps you should stop conflating all western nations with the US and we might get somewhere.
Perhaps you should stop conflating all western nations with the US and we might get somewhere.
US citizens, Joe Biden, Victoria Nuland, and the late John McCain, were in Kyiv around 2014, stirring things up. They are as much to blame as anybody for the current mess in Ukraine.
There some who have suggested that if Russia is allowed to "get away with" its invasion of Ukraine then the three gulf states will be the next to fall, and perhaps they will. It would certainly be in Russia's interest to extend its defensive position to the shores of the Baltic sea. The question is whether NATO would intervene and risk a nuclear war with Russia.
I hardly think NATO would welch on Article 5, especially now that Russia is so thoughtfully justifying their continued existence right now.
I don't think the US would want to see Washington, and perhaps New York, become the 21st century's Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Russia, I think, would be less squeamish. The US chickened out when Ukraine asked for a “no-fly” zone.
NATO obligations would become irrelevant if nuclear war was in the offing.
Nuclear war is in the offing, in case you hadn't been paying attention to Putin's sabre rattling.
I hadn't noticed. It's probably been drowned out by 100 years of US chauvanism.
Parliamentary representation is irrelevant if you are integrated through the military and trained, funded, supplied weapons by Nato and the US. This is pretty much standard for controling US vassal states world wide.
The Cold War is over, my dude. Everyone out of the pool.
Yes but the US still believes it has exceptional status and therefore is able to make and break the rules in the rules based world. The easiest way to enforce this is to train extremists that have no compunction taking lives to be the armed forces of client states. This mode of operating is entirely independent of the cold war and has become orders of manitude greater since the fall of the Soviet Union as has been demonstrated in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Honduras… Unsurprisingly, Russia has no intention of joining this list. Nor China nor Iran. At some point, the formation of Contra like and Al Quaida like armies must be resisted. Russia has reached the point where they no longer can tolerate extremists concentrating on their border and pounding Russian speaking civilians with artillery until invasion is the only option.
So does Russia. That's rather the point. You're so obsessed with the sins of the pot that you're blind to the butchery of the kettle.
My prediction that the War would end after about a month with a peace deal involving greater autonomy in the Donbas and likely the pre-war status quo in Crimea was incorrect. Putin seems to be in it for the long haul now and looks to be aiming to annex most of the East and South of Ukraine. This is obviously unacceptable to the Ukrainian government and given the current Western support for them I expect a majore counter-attack effort from them in the next 2 weeks which could decide the outcome of the war. It is either stalemate or the Russians will be pushed out from territory gained since the start of the war in Feb and possibly more.
Russia is the aggressor in this conflict.
I think I would regard it as a preemptive defensive strike, though I can see how such an act might be regarded as "aggressive" on technical grounds.
"I think I would regard it as a preemptive defensive strike,"
Riiiigth….. So if the goal of this "preemptive defensive strike" was to guard against future NATO expansion, then that hasn't worked out so well has it, with both Finland and Sweden keen to join up now, and all the extra NATO forces in existing NATO regions, and NATO more enthusiastic and united than ever.
Rather than a “preemptive defensive strike”, it looks more like an own-goal to me.
I think you are a wishful thinker. You want the world to be the way your inclinations dictate.
It was not only NATO expansion, despite the West's broken promise made to Gorbachev not to expand NATO. There was also the threatened invasion of Crimea.
Factcheck. NATO never promised not to expand to other countries. According to the article, any comments in that respect were in the context of German re-unification, and that claimed promise couldn't have related to current expansion because it simply wasn't a possibility at the time due to the Warsaw pact was in existence then. Also, there was never any formal agreement with respect to non-expansion of NATO.
The fact check article rates the claims as mostly false.
It is my understanding that the dissolution of the Warsaw pact was the quid pro quo for the promise, so the implication would be that NATO would not extend into the Warsaw pact countries.
If it were such a fundamental change as dissolving the Warsaw pact, then this would have been based on a formal agreement, that would have been formally documented. In which case, I look forward to you linking your source to such a formal agreement between the parties (if it exists).
"Formal" or "informal" would be irrelevant in the world of realpolitik. In that world an agreement is an agreement.
Besides, you have already admitted that an agreement was made. Only you claim it only applied to East Germany. Which of course doesn't make sense because (1) the Warsaw pact was dissolved and (2) East Germany would be part of NATO anyway, once the two Germanies were unified.
So basically if I pre-emptively punched you in the balls because I believe I am psychic and can read minds, that would be completely justified and not the act of an aggressor? Okaaayyyy. Well that's… Interesting? Special?
It wasn't a question of clairvoyance. Happenings in Ukraine spoke for themselves.
More like the voices in Putin's head. How dare Ukraine seek closer ties with better economic and security benefits!
I don't think Western prospects were better. I think the Europeans didn't want them, but were reluctant to admit that because Uncle Sam wanted Ukraine away from Russia.
That didn't stop Germany and France blocking Ukraine from NATO membership. So much for the all powerful Uncle Sam.
I understand it would be against the rules for a country to join NATO if it was involved in a border dispute with another country, as was the case with Ukraine.
This predates 2014
15,000 dead in Ukraines's Eastern provinces, at the hands of the Ukrainian militia, can hardly be considered voices in Putin's head.
Ahem. Looking at the UN breakdown it was 3,403 civilian deaths caused by both sides, which is of course appalling. The rest of that number is around 4400 Ukraine forces, 6517 DPR and LPR militias, and the US State Department throws in an unconfirmed 400-500 Russian military personnel.
It looks as if I was right about it being a "preemptive strike".
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300584237/the-only-correct-decision-no-end-in-sight-for-ukraine-war-as-russias-vladimir-putin-defends-invasion-hails-troops
Hmmmm. It's going on for a lot longer than a "strike". From the same article:
Perhaps he should nuke Washington. Slimy Joe's gun running activities would make the US a legitimate target.
Maybe you should stop playing apologist for a slimy, genocidal, kleptocrat petro-oligarch would-be Tsar like you're making some big ideological statement.
Respectfully, paragraphs are your friend.
If it is of any help, the original post on Nick Kelly’s blog is nicely formatted with paragraphs.
Poor old Nick! How did the paragraphs get unformatted?
No idea. Either he copied & pasted unformatted text straight into TS or he somehow lost the paragraph marks. If I had had more time and had seen it in time I could have re-formatted the Post here.
I don't think there is any serious dispute that Russia is the aggressor. If the invasion and civilian death toll, and rapes and tortures performed by Russian troops were not enough to establish this, the relocation of captured civilians ought to ring alarm bells – a number of minorities were exterminated in this way under the Soviets, and it was the method employed in the Armenian Genocide. The US had their own version, the Trail of Tears.
Yet the hard left who – many of whom still seem to secretly admire Stalin – still wants us to believe that the 'Great Satan' is the sole source of all the world's evils.
I'm not sure I'd call them "hard left", maybe republicans manque. But most of the atrocities they damn the US for, are presently being performed by their world leader of choice. We cannot really call them hypocrites – there's no thought happening there – they merely repeat the cant of their team.
there's no thought happening there – they merely repeat the cant of their team.
I don't think the is any doubt about Ukraine's aggression directed at the Donbas region. That's not just the 'cant of anybody's team'. Nor is Ukraine's desire to repossess Crimea, which could only be achieved through an invasion.
Q.E.D.
Q.E.D.
Quite! I'm glad you agree.
Oh no, we don't agree Mikesh. You have merely demonstrated my point – you are incapable of forming an argument, and simply bleat RT talking points like the sheep from Animal Farm. "Four legs good" and so forth.
Were you capable of debate, rather than talking about the casualties of the Donbas insurgency in isolation, you would produce some plausible scheme whereby the Ukrainian victims of Russian imperialism in the Donbas differed from those you have mentioned. There are quite a few of them, and while you fail to account for them you give every appearance of being a bigot.
Oh no, we don't agree Mikesh. You have merely demonstrated my point – you are incapable of forming an argument, and simply bleat RT talking points like the sheep from Animal Farm. "Four legs good" and so forth.
I think if you look back over my comments you will find plenty of arguments, arguments which bear no resemblance to the ad hominem nonsense above.
Were you capable of debate, rather than talking about the casualties of the Donbas insurgency in isolation, you would produce some plausible scheme whereby the Ukrainian victims of Russian imperialism in the Donbas differed from those you have mentioned.
The Eastern Ukranians wanted a level of autonomy, after the illegal ousting of Yanukovich in 2014, and the fascist coup; and for that purpose wanted to set up a federal system within the Ukraine. That was the reason for the government attacks on their region. Russia came to their defense , which was natural enough given Eastern Ukraine was mostly ethnically Russian. I suspect that the Russians may have had ulterior motives – they wanted to forestall Ukraine's entry into NATO – but the Ukrainians’ barbaric attacks were probably reason enough.
The Eastern Ukranians wanted a level of autonomy, after the illegal ousting of Yanukovich in 2014, and the fascist coup;
Putin wanted an invasion platform and a destabilizing insurgency. The Eastern Ukrainians were not consulted, because Putin is an authoritarian – democracy has no value for him, he considers it a vice. The fascist coup was the Russian occupation, and Donbas residents have been forced to join the Russian invasion as cannon meat. (https://mg.co.za/opinion/2022-04-12-cannon-meat-the-men-of-combat-age-stuck-in-ukraine/)
Dream on. I don't believe any of that. You will need to provide some evidence.
“Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has declared it illegal for any adult male to leave the country.”
(extracted from your link)
Sociologist Kamil Galeev details Russian press-ganging of Ukrainians.
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1522231625337163776
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1522247844203311107
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1522196119589171202.html
And of course you have not accounted for the victims.
Every Syrian the Russians killed posthumously became an ISIS fighter, and every Ukrainian a Nazi.
No moral distinctions to draw.
From the above thread.
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1522205098113482752
You will need to provide some evidence.
Yes we know – you only believe Der Moskvafurhrer.
Not much point in debating with fascists really – you can spin lies as fast as I can debunk them.
But you should be ashamed mikesh, to be fanboying a murderous genocide on NZ's only real Left site. We are ashamed of you – you belong on 8Chan.
I'm still waiting to see some evidence from you. Ad hominems just don't cut it. Not that I’m expecting any evidence, since it was all bullshit.
I get my information from news reports, radio, tv, newspapers. etc., but some knowledge of history also helps.
I'm still waiting to see some evidence from you.
Nonsense – you just cited one of my links.
It's not an ad hom either, merely an accurate description – the lackeys of a murderous despot have no business pretending to be progressives – away with you!
More ad hominems. You never learn, do you?
If you insist on supporting a fascist regime you cannot complain about ad homs when you are called out as a fascist.
If you insist in employing ad hominems instead rational arguments, you cannot blame me for calling you out as an ignoramus who doesn't know what he is talking about.
[Please check & correct your user name in the next comment, thanks]
Mod note
Replace 'sole' with…'main'.
The Ukraine is fighting a valiant fight for the ….yankee dollar.
Pretty sure they are fighting for their continued independence but whatever. The point is they are fighting.
There are easier ways to get the Yankee Dollar. Still no idea why that should be any of Russia's business.
What are the easier ways…?
Maybe ask Hunter Biden.
Oooh yeah, that old chestnut. Bravo. So edge.
Oh right. Radio Free Europe. I could supply numerous Russian video interviews of very grateful Mariupol citizens rescued from Azov. Also eye wilness accounts of civilians being shot by Azov as they attempt to escape the city. Your Radio Free Europe anonymous accounts only serve to bolster propaganda. They are substantially funded by NED, an acknowledged arm of the CIA.
RFE has a fairly good reputation for the integrity of its material. Certainly they select stories that favour certain views, but they are not keen on publishing fabricated material – nor do they need to, as Russia is not at all averse to outraging world opinion.
Disagree with much of this article but wish to focus on a common western trope which I think is delusional , namely ,
" In the end, it will likely result in a military defeat for Russia and humiliation for Putin."
If Russia were to take their gloves off and engage in total war i.e total destruction of infrastructure , power , fuel , water , communications , sewerage , & food distribution which they can do at will with stand off missiles , and were they to change their R.O.E to disregard civilian casualties then how can any rational thinking adult believe that Ukraine is going to win this war ?