Originally posted on Nick Kelly’s blog
On February 24 2022 Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military to invade Ukraine, a nation that declared independence from Russia on August 24 1991. This is not the first time in Ukraine’s 30 years of independence that the Russian Federation has attacked Ukraine, having annexed the Crimea region back in 2014. Vladimir Putin has made no secret of the fact that he believes Ukraine has been ruled by forces hostile to Russia. Whilst many were surprised by the Russian government’s decision to take this hostile action toward Ukraine, there were plenty of warning signs that this may happen.
It is not my view that war is inevitable, be it in the Ukraine, Palestine, Syria or elsewhere. However, there are often only small windows of opportunity where a lasting peace can be built or negotiated. In the case of Russia and Ukraine, there have been plenty of warning signs over the last 30 years and potentially different responses to these may have produced a different result. What-if-isms are of little comfort or help to those now forced to flee Ukraine or those who are now staying to defend their homeland against Russian invasion.
Residents remove their belongings from a destroyed building in Kyiv after it was hit by artillery shelling. [Felipe Dana/AP Photo]
Russia is the aggressor in this conflict. The targeting of civilians and shelling during a so-called Cease-Fire are acts committed by the Russian forces, and the US President is correct to call President Putin a ‘war criminal’. Those who justify or use moral equivocation by citing the presence of the far-right in Ukraine or that this was in response to NATO expansion miss the point. Yes, the far-right does have a presence in Ukraine and yes they also have joined the resistance to the current invasion. But the logic that this somehow justifies the Russian invasion is incredibly warped. For one, the war gives the far right in Ukraine space to recruit and win support by being part of the resistance. Secondly, if the correct response is for Russia to invade every European country that has an active far-right then very few nations are not at risk of invasion.
On the left, many are still influenced by the analysis of Lenin during the First World War and just before the 1917 Russian Revolution that in an inter-imperialist conflict socialists should be standing up to their own ruling class. During the First World War, there were strong arguments for working people not to align with the Tsar in Russia or other imperialist leaders in that conflict. It is dangerous to simply apply this idea to the current conflict without understanding that the context is different. There is a strong argument that people should be holding their own government or ‘ruling class’ to account during any situation like this. Ultimately, the decision to invade Ukraine was Russia’s, but there is still a question of what the governments and in particular NATO members could have done to help prevent this and what they can do now. Sadly, some on the left and drawn both bizarre and quite dangerous conclusions based on the premise that their role is to stick it to their own ruling class. Bizarrely, some socialists still mistake Russia to be some sort of socialist/anti-imperialist power, thinking that there is some residue influence of the 1917 revolution.
In my late teens, a became involved with radical left politics largely influenced by opposing the invasion of Afghanistan and later Iraq. I began studying the history of US foreign policy in places like Chile in 1973 or Iran in 1953. In 2001, just before the attack on the Twin Towers in New York, Australian journalist John Pilger released a documentary called The New Rulers of the World, which clearly outlined the role played by the US in installing the Suharto dictatorship in Indonesia. This in turn meant that country allowed western manufacturers to move production to that country where labour standards were very low and clothing and other items could be produced cheaply. Whilst Pilger has always been prone to being an evangelist for his cause and being a polarising figure, in the past, he has played an important role in highlighting the shortcomings of western governments. Pilger’s bizarre article written days before the Russian invasion is selective with which facts it includes and effectively paints President Putin and the Russian state as victims of Western propaganda. Pilger like many others on the left is so determined to expose their own ‘ruling class’ that they’ll downplay or ignore the countless human rights abuses committed by Russia under Putin’s leadership.
Many on the left, and some on the right or centre focussed their attention on NATO. The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation is a Cold War military alliance designed to stand up to the Soviet Union. After the end of the Cold War, there is a legitimate question as to whether this alliance should have continued. Many continued to be nervous about Russia, a nation that is resource-rich and historically has been very influential. It also does not have a strong history of democracy and instead has had a brutal history of state control both under Tsarism and later when it was the USSR. Certainly for the nations like Lithuania and Ukraine which were ruled by Russia for many years this nervousness is justified. Whether retaining the NATO alliance was the best way to counter this is a fair question. However, to say that the threat of Ukraine joining NATO provoked or even justified the Russian invasion is just wrong. Kier Starmer’s threat to withdraw the whip from any UK Labour MP who supported the Stop the War coalition who is calling for No NATO Expansion is an overreaction. That said, the optics of the coalition’s slogan are really bad. Whatever faults there are with NATO, it is Russia that has just invaded a sovereign country resulting in death, destruction and people being displaced. Trying to deflect from this is not a credible position at all.
The other argument put forward is moral equivalence, whereby people argue that the decision of the US and its allies to invade Iraq was just as bad so who are we to go criticising Russia. The decision to invade Iraq was wrong and few would still defend that action. That does not mean Britain or the US should not criticise Russia for what it is doing in Ukraine, if anything it places a greater responsibility on these governments to uphold human rights now. This is even more important when there is a real chance of forces more sympathetic to Russia taking power. Former US President Donald Trump continues to describe Vladimir Putin in glowing terms. Trump continues to exert considerable influence and control over the Republican Party, who currently stands a strong chance of gaining at least one house in the midterm elections later this year. In such a scenario there are no guarantees that the current pressure being applied to the Putin regime will hold up.
One of the problems has been the inconsistent approach to Russia since the end of the Soviet Union. The recent pressure for Roman Abramovich to sell Chelsea Football Club has brought to light some of the corrupt practices he and others used to make their fortune including the purchase of an oil company from the Russian government in a rigged auction in 1995. The UK allowed these characters to invest this ill-gotten gain into its economy, right up till earlier this year. When the current Russian regime attacked Chechnya in 1999, invaded Georgia in 2008, invaded Crimea and parts of Donbas in Ukraine in 2014 and engaged in a proxy war in Syria it was met with only mild responses including limited sanctions against Russia or mealy-mouthed speeches. Meanwhile, the city of London continued to be awash with ill-gotten money from Russia. That the current UK Prime Minister gave a peerage to Lord Lebedev, owner of two major UK newspapers and friend of Boris Johnson and other senior Conservatives despite security concerns being raised at the time indicates the level of influence Russian money now has in the UK.
Back when the Eastern block fell, the priority was to integrate them into global markets. This was of course at the end of the free market 80s where the naive view was that through economic liberalism democratic political reform would also occur. This maybe a generous view, for many, access to Russian markets and resources was an opportunity for profit. Whilst opportunistically making money from this new market, the political response was to leave NATO intact and treat Russia as a potential foe. Whilst trying to impose Western-style democracy into Russia rather than letting the people of that country decide on their own future would have been an error, to assume that a country with a history of little else than totalitarian regimes would be quick to embrace liberal democracy, free speech and human rights was foolish. What the best approach would have been in hindsight is still unclear, but it seems to profit from post-soviet Russia whilst at the same time treating it as a potential military and political threat has not led to a good outcome.
The invasion that began just over two months ago will have a profound impact on global politics for many years. The conflict is unlikely to end quickly and will take a toll on everyone involved. In the end, it will likely result in a military defeat for Russia and humiliation for Putin. This could mean a much more volatile situation in dealing with a state that has a permanent seat on the UN security council and has nuclear weapons. Much of Europe currently relies on Russia for oil and gas and moving away from this will cause considerable economic upheaval. And Ukraine will take years to recover from this invasion even once the conflict has ceased.
This war needs to end yesterday and never would have started but for the destructive tentacles of the USA .Negotiation not more weapons .Allowing america to add another notch to their failed state belt could be the last act of a doomed planet .
But yes Ukraine is getting what they deserve. Zelenski and his war machine have had years to sort this out. Well they are getting sorted now and there's fuck all the yanks can actually do about it. I hope Bidens wardogs lose to Trump in the next election as a blowback for funding this madness.
The Ukraine civilians are the big losers, and don't deserve any of this,
I want NZ to send aid only to the civilians only. Zelenski and his army can go to hell, and they certainly are!
I guess aside from the tiny inconvenient fact that Ukraine did not attack Russian territory, and indeed gave up its nuclear arsenal to be less of a threat. We will probably also have to ignore the utter absurdity of any country casually attacking a country with a nuclear arsenal like Russia.
I suppose you'd prefer it if the Russian forces just assaulted and murdered Ukrainian civilians while the Ukraine military did nothing? What a curious mind you have.
I think they were on the point of invading Crimea, which of course is part of Russia. There was also the matter of the attacks on Donbass etc. which was mostly populated by ethnic Russians.
There is zero evidence that Ukraine was going to send troops to or attack the ukraine in any manner whatsoever.
The fighting/skirmishes in the Donbas region of Ukraine has been going on for somet time why did Putin decide to attack now and why did he try to seize control of the entire country and murder thousands nowhere near the Donbas region ?
'They banned education in Russian.
They banned the ability to speak Russian at school (teachers can be fired for this).
They banned the ability to speak Russian at work (you can be fined or fired for this).
They banned the ability to speak Russian for politics (even politics like the president can’t speak Russian)
Also cinema, theater, excursions, etc, etc.
You can’t even sign in Russian in public in some cities like Lviv.
'It is allowed to speak Russianin private but illegal to provide services in Russian unless specifically asked by customer. So, people in absolutely russian–speaking cities obliged to address customers in ukrainian because they can be fined if some ukrainian from Western Ukraine complains.'
It looks very much like the Ukranians were looking to protect and promote their cultural language. If it was Te Reo we were talking about you would be all for it.
What an idiotic comparison! Te Reo is adding a language to include another culture. Ukraine deleted Russian to persecute a large sector of their population. Estimated native speakers of Russian in Ukraine are 40%!
It is not illegal to provide services in Russian. The law you are referring to states that the service must be made available in Ukrainian UNLESS the customer requests otherwise. In this regard it is similar to what happens in Quebec with French. I disagree with the policy but it is not the same as making speaking another language illegal as you suggest.
Sorry, but you really are very wrong. There is ample evidence from the OSCE that artillery fire from the Ukraine side into Donbass increased by a factor of 30 in the days before the 24th starting on the 16th. Biden knew this barrage had begun when he asserted an imminent invasion and that Putin was already under pressure to take seriously the hell that was being created for Russian speakers in Ukraine
I understand Putin tried over and over again to get Zelenskyy to the negotiating table, but Zelenskyy refused. The invasion was probably the last straw.
Apparently there were movements of crack troops towards Donbas just prior to the invasion. Those could have been preparation for a concerted attack on Donetsk, or possibly to support an invasion of Crimea; ie to cut off a possible counterattack from the East.
Ukraine is known to have a policy of recovering Crimea
Given that nukes were supplied by the Soviets, there is no implication that Ukraine was entitled to hold on to them once the Soviet Union ceased to exist. The same would apply to Ukraine’s "ownership" of Crimea.
This would be the same Crimea transferred to the Ukraine SSR on the authority of the Supreme Soviet on 19 February 1954 would it?
Now I'm no fancy book-learning diplomat or international lawyer, but given no agreement was ratified transferring either back to Russia with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and Ukraine wasn't a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, there is no case to answer.
When the assignment was made in 1954, I don't think it was envisaged that Crimea would ever fall into the hands of the West. One would suppose that that was never part of the deal. Clearly, with Ukraine moving Westwards, Crimea should have reverted to Russian control.
"Fall into the hands of the West"
It's fascinating watching someone condemning Western economic imperialism while quite brazenly defending Russian neo-imperial rechavism. It really is.
I echo the comment about paragraphs. Perhaps you could edit this and add a few appropriate paragraphs to make reading a bit easier.
I think this conflict may not last as long as what people think.
Firstly, Russia may well start running low on ammo soon. There have been a number of well publicised attacks on Russian ammo dumps, including in the major Russian staging area of Belgorod. But more importantly, there has just been a huge fire at a major weapons factory in Perm, Russia. This factory manufactures rockets, missiles, and shells used in the Russian war effort. I understand it is the second largest in Russia.
Fires and other sabotage activity in the Belgorod region are relatively close to Ukraine, and are likely due to Ukrainian attacks. But there have been a lot of fires in other key industries well outside of Ukrainian artillery or missile range, and much deeper into Russia. So, it could potentially be that Russian dissidents themselves are attacking some of this infrastructure.
So, this type of activity is going to have an effect on the ability for Russians to resupply their forces with ammunition. Compounding this are the effect of sanctions since many Russian complex military systems and weapons rely on electronics from the US and other western nations meaning the Russians are trying to find work-arounds to get these products.
Secondly, however, on the Ukrainian side of the equation, the Ukrainians are already causing the Russians a lot of trouble before the heavy weapons on the field have even arrived. Once the Ukrainians have these heavy weapons, they will have an endless supply of western ammunition.
So, there will soon likely be a situation where Russia is struggling for ammunition, and Ukraine is able to destroy the Russian artillery that is the cornerstone of the Russian military war method.
Therefore, I expect within the next month or so that the Ukrainians will be able to start pushing the Russians back out of Ukraine.
I think the Russians scuppered any hope of a peace deal due to all the war crimes they committed in Bucha, and the fact that they seem intent on erasing the Ukrainian nation.
Why would Ukraine be interested in a peace deal at all, especially when they see they have the chance to push the Russians right out of Ukraine.
One of the first things I think the Ukrainians will do once they have the right equipment from the west is to hit the Crimean bridge that connects Russia to Crimea. This would create a huge problem for the Russians, and as you can see from the article, not something they would be very happy about.
Portraying the Ukrainian people as unwilling dupes of the west is errant nonsense.
Their remembered history of russian/soviet behaviour over the last century combined with they fierce resistance to the russian invasion overwhelming supported by the majority of their population combined with the exodus of millions of civilians to western aligned countries suggests you are the dupe not the ukrainian people.
Mikesh has it about right. It has taken huge amounts of money thrown at extremists by the US in their usual way to create the current situation. 2014 was a US manufactured coup that gave Nato access to fanatics that could be trained and nurtured. Even at the point of the election of Zelenski, the people of Ukraine rejected the obvious extremism of Poroshenko. Zelenski was elected as the outsider that pledged to act on the minsk accords which would have ended hostilities in Donbass and Luhansk
Sure, Yanukovych's blatant corruption couldn't possibly have had anything to do with Euromaidan gaining popularity. Yes, they had money from Washington. Yanukovych was in the pocket of Moscow, but apparently that's OK, and we'll just ignore those inconvenient democratic elections since then.
Well, if corruption is the only metric, Zelenski has quite a large footprint in the pandora papers. As for the elections, he had overwhelming support from the Russian speaking LDNR on the promise of following through on the Minsk agreements. As the link shows, he sold out.
It's not the only metric. There's always good old blood on the ground and civilian death tolls. You just really hate the idea of Ukrainians having any agency.
I'm pretty sure the issue with the Euromaidan was the desire to "do a deal with Europe. Hence the name Euromaidan. the illegal coup which ousted Yanukovich was occasioned by his accepting an economics assistance deal from Russia, when Europe appeared to dragging the chain.
Rather amusing given Russia was hardly in a position to give economic assistance to anyone. Why is it that you can't condemn US militarism without playing apologist for Putin. I can. It's easy. US and Russian imperialism are both bad. See? Easy.
Russia has been giving economic assistance to numerous 3rd world countries for..decades…real aid…not debt bearing aid that is paid to western corporations.
The 'aid' gets paid to western corporations…and the recipient country gets landed with the interest and principal.When they default it becomes a lever to remainder..resources.
As it happens Russia gave 15 billion dollars (I think that was the amount) in 2014, with no strings attached. This was what riled the Euromaidan protesters. Some people just don't know when they're well off. Apparently they'd have preferred a much smaller conditional deal from the Europeans.
The Ukrainian military still has a large pool of military aged and trained personnel to draw reinforcements from as a result of the mobilisation orders issued at the start of the war and is receiving massive amounts of military equipment from Western nations. Russia on the other hand is depleting it's professional military wing and is restricted from replenishing the troops in Ukraine with the decision not to declare this a war. The Russians advances in the areas they are attacking on are measured in a few kilometers per day if that and they are losing the momentum and initiative.
So maybe its Nato thats a little short on weaponry? I mean, a lot is getting blown up as soon as it arrives. Might have to delay the plan of lighting another fire in Taiwan by a few years. Not to mention Israel. They are used to cargo planes arriving on call to resupply missiles rained down on pesky Palestinians but are they now going to have to get in behind first Ukraine, then Taiwan?
The age of the howitzers isn't the point. The point is they are being supplied with counter-battery radar that ups the effectiveness of the artillery to modern standards. The radar allows the Ukrainians to identify the source of incoming artillery fire then target the source and take it out.
I have seen no reports to suggest that large quantities of supplied military aid is being successfully targeted, and how could the Russians possibly validate such a claim?
Do you really think the Ukrainians are so stupid not to realise that the Russians are targeting their stuff, and therefore don't take countermeasures such as splitting their gear into many smaller, distributed locations, setting up decoy warehouses and the like?
Aside from Javelins and Turkish-made drones, little weaponry from NATO states has been deployed yet. Ukraine is still on its old Soviet era MiGs and tanks.
Sigh. Irrespective of your childish name calling, of the equipment NATO states are funneling into Ukraine, most hasn't been deployed yet because the Ukraine forces prefer to use the old Soviet hardware they're familiar with. More to the point, why do you take such pleasure in Putin's butchery of Ukraine?
Actually, they are fighting for themselves and their freedom, and would likely be fighting still regardless of help from the West.
So, what would you recommend them do? Lay down their weapons and be slaughtered like those in Bucha or Maruipal?
Have you ever wondered why people would rather fight to the death than be under Russian control? It doesn't say much about life under Russia if death is preferable, does it?
Well given the violent history that Russia has inflicted on Ukraine under Imperial Russia rulei& then during its 1st independence from in the from 1917 to the early 20 with the Bolsheviks. Then later with Stalin with Holodomor in the 30's through to the death of Stalin & then 80"s with Chernobyl.
The Ukranians have never trusted Russia & even when it give up it's WMD's & other Strategic Wpns. It sought guarantees from Russia under the Lisbon Protocol & the Budapest Memorandum that Russia won't interfere with it security or it's economic development to make its own decisions as a sovereign country.
But that all changed when Tsar Poot's managed to install his Toady President which to the lead to the 2014 uprising & old mate fled to Russia.
Poland, the Baltic States, Finland & Sweden are in the same boat as Ukraine atm & they would rather die than live back under a Russia Jackboot again. Thence they ended choosing to join NATO & the EU when they got the opportunity.
Unlike Ukraine who tried to give Neutrality a chance, but it wasn't going to work long term when Tsar Poot's is running Russia. So Ukranie tired to join NATO & the EU, but was blocked by Germany's use of its veto vote in NATO & EU by Merkel's German Government. Who was in Poot's back pocket as it wanted cheap Russia Gas IOT shut down its Nuclear & Coal powered power stations.
Yes, Scud – that part of the world has always operated that way.
Don't imagine for one minute that the Ukrainian propagandists or soldiers are any less prone to misbehavior than the Russians are. There are no innocents among the military and politicians making up the news.
Others say that the USA were behind that evil coup d'état of 2014.
My fear is that we are being fed lies from the Ukrainians that are approved of by our 5-eyes masters, and then dispersed to us in our mass media.
That would be a terrible situation if we fear escalation by either major party, because if we believe what we are being fed, we could well provoke that escalation.
And I fear that those patriots who approve of every report of innocent Ukranians being butchered and tortured by evil Russians – well, those ignorant idiots are silly people being duped by their own side's propaganda.
One aspect of Orwell's 1984 has come true: We have always been at war with….
Except, you know, it's not American territory being invaded and American civilians being abused and murdered. You do understand that Ukraine is, in fact, a sovereign nation with most of the skin in this conflict, yeah? Does it occur to you that a substantial number of the population don't want to have their existence dictated to them by Moscow? I mean, you'd have to be the worst kind of unempathetic nihilist not to understand Ukraine is fighting for its very existence. They've done the Russian client state thing before and they don't like it. The Holodomor is very much in the cultural memory.
The Ukraine was not being "dictated to by Russia". However, that was not the point, as far as the Ukranian Neo Nazis were concerned. They just seemed to hate everything Russian. Zelenskyy was elected as the “peace” candidate, which would seem to indicate that the majority of Ukrainians wanted peace with Russia. It was a pity their government thought otherwise.
The majority of Ukrainians no doubt did want peace with Russia … pity Putin chose to invade and try to take the country over, murder civilians and cause the largest refugee crisis in Europe since the WW2.
Riiiiiight. So by your logic an ANZAC invasion of the Solomon Islands would be completely justified because their defense agreement with China puts us in range of a Julang-3 in a few years.
A false equivalence. China could probably bomb us with something or other, even without a base on the Solomons. Besides, I doubt whether we represent any sort of threat to China.
How is it a false equivalence? The US has ICBMs and stealth bombers. They don't even need the NATO bases they already have had on or near the Russian border for decades. You can't even explain how a strictly defensive alliance is a threat to a major nuclear power.
And then there's the little issue of Kaliningrad, which NATO has never so much as made a peep about.
You're funny. You're also historically ignorant. There are still Ukrainians alive who remember the Holodomor – can't imagine why that might make them anti-Russian – maybe something happened in 2014 to upset them? As for the old "Nazi" line, maybe actually look at the make-up of the Ukraine Parliament before uttering such profound absurdities. Of course the majority of Ukrainians wanted peace with Russia – they also wanted their sovereignty. Apparently Putin thought otherwise.
They already had their sovereignty. They just didn't realize that their Nazi dominated government was about to give it away.
I'm inclined to think that, given the obvious hostility that exists between West and East, there ought to be well defined spheres of influence attributed to each. I believe a line of demarkation should extend from the Baltic sea in the North to the Black sea in the South. That would place Ukraine, as well as the Baltic states and Finland within the Russian sphere of influence. there are some who sneer at "Finlandization", but I think the Finns have it about right for the circumstances in which they find themselves.
Sovereignty includes the ability to decide your own defense and economic partnerships without seeking the permission of the neighbours, so clearly Putin was under the impression that Ukraine didn't have sovereignty and said so on more than one occasion.
Also maybe show some evidence of this "Nazi dominated government" – In the last election Svoboda and the other far-right parties only won 2.15% of the vote combined and didn't get seats in the Parliament.
As for "Finlandization", you might think the Finns had it about right, but they've clearly changed their mind on that front thanks to Putin. You know, seeing as they're rushing to join NATO.
Sovereignty includes the ability to decide your own defense and economic partnerships without seeking the permission of the neighbours,
Gaining and maintaining sovereignty can sometime entail taking care not to antagonise one's neighbours. The hoops that Finland had to jump through, after WWII, in order to restore friendly relations with Russia, and ensure its own sovereignty, after siding with Germany during the war, should perhaps be lesson of which all countries should all take heed.
As for "Finlandization", you might think the Finns had it about right, but they've clearly changed their mind on that front thanks to Putin. You know, seeing as they're rushing to join NATO.
Finland was both smart and successful after WWII; they would be fools to now away that success by joining NATO.
Perhaps you should stop conflating all western nations with the US and we might get somewhere.
US citizens, Joe Biden, Victoria Nuland, and the late John McCain, were in Kyiv around 2014, stirring things up. They are as much to blame as anybody for the current mess in Ukraine.
There some who have suggested that if Russia is allowed to "get away with" its invasion of Ukraine then the three gulf states will be the next to fall, and perhaps they will. It would certainly be in Russia's interest to extend its defensive position to the shores of the Baltic sea. The question is whether NATO would intervene and risk a nuclear war with Russia.
I don't think the US would want to see Washington, and perhaps New York, become the 21st century's Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Russia, I think, would be less squeamish. The US chickened out when Ukraine asked for a “no-fly” zone.
NATO obligations would become irrelevant if nuclear war was in the offing.
Parliamentary representation is irrelevant if you are integrated through the military and trained, funded, supplied weapons by Nato and the US. This is pretty much standard for controling US vassal states world wide.
Yes but the US still believes it has exceptional status and therefore is able to make and break the rules in the rules based world. The easiest way to enforce this is to train extremists that have no compunction taking lives to be the armed forces of client states. This mode of operating is entirely independent of the cold war and has become orders of manitude greater since the fall of the Soviet Union as has been demonstrated in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Honduras… Unsurprisingly, Russia has no intention of joining this list. Nor China nor Iran. At some point, the formation of Contra like and Al Quaida like armies must be resisted. Russia has reached the point where they no longer can tolerate extremists concentrating on their border and pounding Russian speaking civilians with artillery until invasion is the only option.
My prediction that the War would end after about a month with a peace deal involving greater autonomy in the Donbas and likely the pre-war status quo in Crimea was incorrect. Putin seems to be in it for the long haul now and looks to be aiming to annex most of the East and South of Ukraine. This is obviously unacceptable to the Ukrainian government and given the current Western support for them I expect a majore counter-attack effort from them in the next 2 weeks which could decide the outcome of the war. It is either stalemate or the Russians will be pushed out from territory gained since the start of the war in Feb and possibly more.
"I think I would regard it as a preemptive defensive strike,"
Riiiigth….. So if the goal of this "preemptive defensive strike" was to guard against future NATO expansion, then that hasn't worked out so well has it, with both Finland and Sweden keen to join up now, and all the extra NATO forces in existing NATO regions, and NATO more enthusiastic and united than ever.
Rather than a “preemptive defensive strike”, it looks more like an own-goal to me.
It was not only NATO expansion, despite the West's broken promise made to Gorbachev not to expand NATO. There was also the threatened invasion of Crimea.
Factcheck. NATO never promised not to expand to other countries. According to the article, any comments in that respect were in the context of German re-unification, and that claimed promise couldn't have related to current expansion because it simply wasn't a possibility at the time due to the Warsaw pact was in existence then. Also, there was never any formal agreement with respect to non-expansion of NATO.
The fact check article rates the claims as mostly false.
It is my understanding that the dissolution of the Warsaw pact was the quid pro quo for the promise, so the implication would be that NATO would not extend into the Warsaw pact countries.
If it were such a fundamental change as dissolving the Warsaw pact, then this would have been based on a formal agreement, that would have been formally documented. In which case, I look forward to you linking your source to such a formal agreement between the parties (if it exists).
Besides, you have already admitted that an agreement was made. Only you claim it only applied to East Germany. Which of course doesn't make sense because (1) the Warsaw pact was dissolved and (2) East Germany would be part of NATO anyway, once the two Germanies were unified.
So basically if I pre-emptively punched you in the balls because I believe I am psychic and can read minds, that would be completely justified and not the act of an aggressor? Okaaayyyy. Well that's… Interesting? Special?
I don't think Western prospects were better. I think the Europeans didn't want them, but were reluctant to admit that because Uncle Sam wanted Ukraine away from Russia.
I understand it would be against the rules for a country to join NATO if it was involved in a border dispute with another country, as was the case with Ukraine.
Ahem. Looking at the UN breakdown it was 3,403 civilian deaths caused by both sides, which is of course appalling. The rest of that number is around 4400 Ukraine forces, 6517 DPR and LPR militias, and the US State Department throws in an unconfirmed 400-500 Russian military personnel.
Hmmmm. It's going on for a lot longer than a "strike". From the same article:
Critics said the speech skirted some uncomfortable realities that Putin is facing: With the campaign in Ukraine faltering, he has not asked Russians to accept sacrifices to weather the sanctions and diplomatic isolation.
He also left unanswered the question of whether and how Russia will marshal more forces in the face of significant losses.
Maybe you should stop playing apologist for a slimy, genocidal, kleptocrat petro-oligarch would-be Tsar like you're making some big ideological statement.
No idea. Either he copied & pasted unformatted text straight into TS or he somehow lost the paragraph marks. If I had had more time and had seen it in time I could have re-formatted the Post here.
I don't think there is any serious dispute that Russia is the aggressor. If the invasion and civilian death toll, and rapes and tortures performed by Russian troops were not enough to establish this, the relocation of captured civilians ought to ring alarm bells – a number of minorities were exterminated in this way under the Soviets, and it was the method employed in the Armenian Genocide. The US had their own version, the Trail of Tears.
Yet the hard left who – many of whom still seem to secretly admire Stalin – still wants us to believe that the 'Great Satan' is the sole source of all the world's evils.
I'm not sure I'd call them "hard left", maybe republicans manque. But most of the atrocities they damn the US for, are presently being performed by their world leader of choice. We cannot really call them hypocrites – there's no thought happening there – they merely repeat the cant of their team.
there's no thought happening there – they merely repeat the cant of their team.
I don't think the is any doubt about Ukraine's aggression directed at the Donbas region. That's not just the 'cant of anybody's team'. Nor is Ukraine's desire to repossess Crimea, which could only be achieved through an invasion.
Oh no, we don't agree Mikesh. You have merely demonstrated my point – you are incapable of forming an argument, and simply bleat RT talking points like the sheep from Animal Farm. "Four legs good" and so forth.
Were you capable of debate, rather than talking about the casualties of the Donbas insurgency in isolation, you would produce some plausible scheme whereby the Ukrainian victims of Russian imperialism in the Donbas differed from those you have mentioned. There are quite a few of them, and while you fail to account for them you give every appearance of being a bigot.
Oh no, we don't agree Mikesh. You have merely demonstrated my point – you are incapable of forming an argument, and simply bleat RT talking points like the sheep from Animal Farm. "Four legs good" and so forth.
I think if you look back over my comments you will find plenty of arguments, arguments which bear no resemblance to the ad hominem nonsense above.
Were you capable of debate, rather than talking about the casualties of the Donbas insurgency in isolation, you would produce some plausible scheme whereby the Ukrainian victims of Russian imperialism in the Donbas differed from those you have mentioned.
The Eastern Ukranians wanted a level of autonomy, after the illegal ousting of Yanukovich in 2014, and the fascist coup; and for that purpose wanted to set up a federal system within the Ukraine. That was the reason for the government attacks on their region. Russia came to their defense , which was natural enough given Eastern Ukraine was mostly ethnically Russian. I suspect that the Russians may have had ulterior motives – they wanted to forestall Ukraine's entry into NATO – but the Ukrainians’ barbaric attacks were probably reason enough.
The Eastern Ukranians wanted a level of autonomy, after the illegal ousting of Yanukovich in 2014, and the fascist coup;
Putin wanted an invasion platform and a destabilizing insurgency. The Eastern Ukrainians were not consulted, because Putin is an authoritarian – democracy has no value for him, he considers it a vice. The fascist coup was the Russian occupation, and Donbas residents have been forced to join the Russian invasion as cannon meat. (https://mg.co.za/opinion/2022-04-12-cannon-meat-the-men-of-combat-age-stuck-in-ukraine/)
Donbas residents have been forced to join the Russian invasion as cannon meat.
Sociologist Kamil Galeev details Russian press-ganging of Ukrainians.
Why Putin is so comfortable with losing men who must go into the Azovstal catacombs and die there en masse? Well, cuz he won't send Russians there. He'll send Ukrainians. I strongly suspect that most of Russian casualties in Z-war were not Russians but forcibly drafted Ukrainians pic.twitter.com/zpREhgWCEB
Watch these mobilised Ukrainian nationals from the Donbass who are being press-ganged into the army by Russians and sent into the frontal assaults as the cannon fodder. This gives some context to how the male population of Donbass is being "recycled" (утилизировать) in Z-war pic.twitter.com/eS9gySb0cx
While Russian propaganda focuses on the Azov participation in the defence of Mariupol, portraying them as Nazis, we should consider that for Russian propaganda a "Nazi" is first and foremost a racial or cultural traitor who could be Russian but refused to. "Nazi" = "вырусь" pic.twitter.com/34vG1WtMoQ
It's not an ad hom either, merely an accurate description – the lackeys of a murderous despot have no business pretending to be progressives – away with you!
If you insist in employing ad hominems instead rational arguments, you cannot blame me for calling you out as an ignoramus who doesn't know what he is talking about.
[Please check & correct your user name in the next comment, thanks]
Oh right. Radio Free Europe. I could supply numerous Russian video interviews of very grateful Mariupol citizens rescued from Azov. Also eye wilness accounts of civilians being shot by Azov as they attempt to escape the city. Your Radio Free Europe anonymous accounts only serve to bolster propaganda. They are substantially funded by NED, an acknowledged arm of the CIA.
RFE has a fairly good reputation for the integrity of its material. Certainly they select stories that favour certain views, but they are not keen on publishing fabricated material – nor do they need to, as Russia is not at all averse to outraging world opinion.
Disagree with much of this article but wish to focus on a common western trope which I think is delusional , namely ,
" In the end, it will likely result in a military defeat for Russia and humiliation for Putin."
If Russia were to take their gloves off and engage in total war i.e total destruction of infrastructure , power , fuel , water , communications , sewerage , & food distribution which they can do at will with stand off missiles , and were they to change their R.O.E to disregard civilian casualties then how can any rational thinking adult believe that Ukraine is going to win this war ?
Hipkins is doing the right thing for New Zealanders already living in Australia, but there’s now a growing risk of a fresh surge of net emigration of frustrated young Kiwis across the Tasman. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTLDR: Employers here in Aotearoa are desperate to keep their best-trained, most-productive ...
This post contains two guest posts from readers, both of which were sent to us after the flooding on Friday 27 January, both of which discuss how we handle our stormwater. This is a guest post from Ed Clayton, who’s written for us before about Auckland’s relationship with freshwater, ...
TLDR: For paying subscribers, here’s the key breaking news, scoops and links I’ve found since 4 am this morning, as of 7 am, including:A 7.8 magnitude earthquake killed more than 2,200 in Turkey near its border with Syria; ReutersMetService has warned a new cyclone is forming north of Aotearoa that ...
The politics of Waitangi and the Treaty evident over the weekend have moved into a new space. The politics of Waitangi and the Treaty evident over the weekend have moved into a new space. There is a new wave of Maori activism, which sees the Treaty as a living ...
Originally published by The Hill After decades of failure to pass major federal climate legislation, Congress finally broke through last year with the Inflation Reduction Act and its close to $400 billion in clean energy investments. Energy modeling experts estimated that these provisions would help the U.S. cut its carbon pollution ...
Apology Accepted? “I dropped the ball on Friday, I was too slow to be seen …The communications weren’t fast enough – including mine. I’m sorry for that.”–Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown.HOW OFTEN do politicians apologise? Sincerely apologise? Not offer voters the weasel words: “If my actions have offended anyone, then I ...
At first blush, Christopher Luxon’s comment at the parliamentary powhiri at Waitangi this year sounded tone deaf. The Leader of the Opposition in talking about the Treaty of Waitangi described New Zealand as “a little experiment”. It seemed to diminish the treaty and the very idea of our nation. Yet ...
THE (new) Prime Minister said nobody understands what co-governance means, later modified to that there were so many varying interpretations that there was no common understanding. BRIAN EASTON writes: Co-governance cannot be derived from the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. It does not use the word. It ...
A brief postscript to yesterday’s newsletter…Watching the predawn speeches just now, the reverence of those speaking and the respectful nature of those listening under umbrellas in the dark. I felt a great sadness at the words from Christopher Luxon last evening still in my head. The singing in the dark accompanied ...
by Don Franks While on holiday,I stayed a few days in Scotland with a friend who showed me one of the country’s great working-class achievements. It was a few miles out of central Edinburgh, a huge cantilever bridge across the river Forth. The Forth Bridge was the first major structure ...
Time To Call A Halt: Chris Hipkins knows that iwi leaders possess the means to make life very difficult for his government. Notwithstanding their objections, however, the Prime Minister’s direction of travel – already clearly signalled by his very public demotion of Nanaia Mahuta – must be confirmed by an emphatic and ...
A chronological listing of news articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Jan 29, 2023 thru Sat, Feb 4, 2023. Story of the Week Social change more important than physical tipping points1.5-degree Goal not plausible Photo: CLICCS / Universität Hamburg Limiting global ...
So Long - And Thanks For All The Fish: In the two-and-a-bit years since Jacinda Ardern’s electoral triumph of 2020, virtually every decision she made had gone politically awry. In the minds of many thousands of voters a chilling metamorphosis had taken place. The Faerie Queen had become the Wicked ...
Look at us here on our beautiful islands in the South Pacific at the start of 2023, we have come so far.Ten days ago we saw a Māori Governor General swearing in our new PM and our first Pasifika Deputy PM, ahead of this year’s parliament where they will be ...
The Herald’s headline writers are at it again! A sensible and balanced piece by Liam Dann on the battle against inflation carries a headline that suggests that NZ is doing worse than the rest of the world. Check it out and see for yourself if I am right. Is this ...
Photo by Anna Demianenko on UnsplashTLDR: Here’s my longer reads and listens for the weekend for sharing with The Kaka’s paying subscribers. I’ve opened this one up for all to give everyone a taste of the sorts of extras you get as a full paying subscriber.Subscribe nowDeeper reads and listens ...
Hello from the middle of a long weekend where I’m letting the last few days unspool, not ready, not yet, to give words to the hardest of what we heard.Instead, today, here are some good words from other people.Mother CourageWhen I wrote last year about Mum and Dad’s move to ...
Workers Now is a new slate of candidates contesting this year’s general election. James Robb and Don Franks are the people behind this initiative and they are hoping to put the spotlight on working people’s interests. Both are seasoned activists who have campaigned for workers’ rights over many decades. Here is ...
Buzz from the Beehive Politicians keen to curry favour with Māori tribal leaders have headed north for Waitangi weekend. More than a few million dollars of public funding are headed north, too. Not all of this money is being trumpeted on the Beehive website, the Government’s official website. ...
Insurers face claims of over $500 million for cars, homes and property damaged in the floods. They are already putting up premiums and pulling insurance from properties deemed at high risk of flooding. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: This week in the podcast of our weekly hoon webinar for paying subscribers, ...
Our Cranky Uncle Game can already be played in eight languages: English, Dutch, French, German, Italian, Portuguese, Spanish and Swedish. About 15 more languages are in the works at various stages of completion or have been offered to be done. To kick off the new year, we checked with how ...
The (new) Prime Minister said nobody understands what co-governance means, later modified to that there were so many varying interpretations that there was no common understanding.Co-governance cannot be derived from the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. It does not use the word. It refers to ‘government’ on ...
It’s that time of the week again when and I co-host our ‘hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kaka. Jump on this link for our chat about the week’s news with special guests Auckland Central MP Chloe Swarbrick and Auckland City Councillor Julie Fairey, including:Auckland’s catastrophic floods, which ...
In March last year, in a panic over rising petrol prices caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the government made a poor decision, "temporarily" cutting fuel excise tax by 25 cents a litre. Of course, it turned out not to be temporary at all, having been extended in May, July, ...
This month’s open thread for climate related topics. Please be constructive, polite, and succinct. The post Unforced variations: Feb 2023 first appeared on RealClimate. ...
Buzz from the Beehive Two fresh press releases had been posted when we checked the Beehive website at noon, both of them posted yesterday. In one statement, in the runup to Waitangi Day, Maori Crown Relations Minister Kelvin Davis drew attention to happenings on a Northland battle site in 1845. ...
It’s that time of the week again when I’m on the site for an hour for a chat in an Ask Me Anything with paying subscribers to The Kaka. Jump in for a chat on anything, including:Auckland’s catastrophic floods, which are set to cost insurers and the Government well over ...
Australia’s Treasurer Jim Chalmers (left) has published a 6,000 word manifesto called ‘Capitalism after the Crises’ arguing for ‘values-based capitalism’. Yet here in NZ we hear the same stale old rhetoric unchanged from the 1990s and early 2000s. Photo: Getty ImagesTLDR: The rest of the world is talking about inflation ...
A couple of weeks ago, after NCEA results came out, my son’s enrolment at Auckland Uni for this year was confirmed - he is doing a BSc majoring in Statistics. Well that is the plan now, who knows what will take his interest once he starts.I spent a bit of ...
Kia ora. What a week! We hope you’ve all come through last weekend’s extreme weather event relatively dry and safe. Header image: stormwater ponds at Hobsonville Point. Image via Twitter. The week in Greater Auckland There’s been a storm of information and debate since the worst of the flooding ...
Hi,At 4.43pm yesterday it arrived — a cease and desist letter from the guy I mentioned in my last newsletter. I’d written an article about “WEWE”, a global multi-level marketing scam making in-roads into New Zealand. MLMs are terrible for many of the same reasons megachurches are terrible, and I ...
Time To Call A Halt: Chris Hipkins knows that iwi leaders possess the means to make life very difficult for his government. Notwithstanding their objections, however, the Prime Minister’s direction of travel – already clearly signalled by his very public demotion of Nanaia Mahuta – must be confirmed by an emphatic ...
Open access notables Via PNAS, Ceylan, Anderson & Wood present a paper squarely in the center of the Skeptical Science wheelhouse: Sharing of misinformation is habitual, not just lazy or biased. The signficance statement is obvious catnip: Misinformation is a worldwide concern carrying socioeconomic and political consequences. What drives ...
Mark White from the Left free speech organisation Plebity looks at the disturbing trend of ‘book burning’ on US campuses In the abstract, people mostly agree that book banning is a bad thing. The Nazis did us the favor of being very clear about it and literally burning books, but ...
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has undergone a stern baptisim of fire in his first week in his new job, but it doesn’t get any easier. Next week, he has a vital meeting in Canberra with his Australian counterpart Anthony Albanese, where he has to establish ...
As PM Chris Hipkins says, it’s a “no brainer” to extend the fuel tax cut, half price public subsidy and the cut to the road user levy until mid-year. A no braoner if the prime purpose is to ease the burden on people struggling to cope with the cost of ...
Buzz from the Beehive Cost-of-living pressures loomed large in Beehive announcements over the past 24 hours. The PM was obviously keen to announce further measures to keep those costs in check and demonstrate he means business when he talks of focusing his government on bread-and-butter issues. His statement was headed ...
Poor Mike Hosking. He has revealed himself in his most recent diatribe to be one of those public figures who is defined, not by who he is, but by who he isn’t, or at least not by what he is for, but by what he is against. Jacinda’s departure has ...
New Zealand is the second least corrupt country on earth according to the latest Corruption Perception Index published yesterday by Transparency International. But how much does this reflect reality? The problem with being continually feted for world-leading political integrity – which the Beehive and government departments love to boast about ...
TLDR: Including my pick of the news and other links in my checks around the news sites since 4am. Paying subscribers can see them all below the fold.In Aotearoa’s political economyBrown vs Fish Read more ...
TLDR: Including my pick of the news and other links in my checks around the news sites since 4am. Paying subscribers can see them all below the fold.In Aotearoa’s political economyBrown vs Fish Read more ...
In other countries, the target-rich cohorts of swinging voters are given labels such as ‘Mondeo Man’, ‘White Van Man,’ ‘Soccer Moms’ and ‘Little Aussie Battlers.’ Here, the easiest shorthand is ‘Ford Ranger Man’ – as seen here parked outside a Herne Bay restaurant, inbetween two SUVs. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / ...
In other countries, the target-rich cohorts of swinging voters are given labels such as ‘Mondeo Man’, ‘White Van Man,’ ‘Soccer Moms’ and ‘Little Aussie Battlers.’ Here, the easiest shorthand is ‘Ford Ranger Man’ – as seen here parked outside a Herne Bay restaurant, inbetween two SUVs. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / ...
Transport Minister and now also Minister for Auckland, Michael Wood has confirmed that the light rail project is part of the government’s policy refocus. Wood said the light rail project was under review as part of a ministerial refocus on key Government projects. “We are undertaking a stocktake about how ...
Sometime before the new Prime Minister Chris Hipkins announced that this year would be about “bread and butter issues”, National’s finance spokesperson Nicola Willis decided to move from Wellington Central and stand for Ohariu, which spreads across north Wellington from the central city to Johnsonville and Tawa. It’s an ...
They say a week is a long time in politics. For Mayor Wayne Brown, turns out 24 hours was long enough for many of us to see, quite obviously, “something isn’t right here…”. That in fact, a lot was going wrong. Very wrong indeed.Mainly because it turns ...
One of the most effective, and successful, graphics developed by Skeptical Science is the escalator. The escalator shows how global surface temperature anomalies vary with time, and illustrates how "contrarians" tend to cherry-pick short time intervals so as to argue that there has been no recent warming, while "realists" recognise ...
Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTLDR: Here’s a quick roundup of the news today for paying subscribers on a slightly frantic, very wet, and then very warm day. In Aotearoa’s political economy today Read more ...
Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTLDR: Here’s a quick roundup of the news today for paying subscribers on a slightly frantic, very wet, and then very warm day. In Aotearoa’s political economy today Read more ...
Tomorrow we have a funeral, and thank you all of you for your very kind words and thoughts — flowers, even.Our friend Michèle messaged: we never get to feel one thing at a time, us grownups, and oh boy is that ever the truth. Tomorrow we have the funeral, and ...
Lynn and I have just returned from a news conference where Hipkins, fresh from visiting a relief centre in Mangere, was repeatedly challenged to justify the extension of subsidies to create more climate emissions when the effects of climate change had just proved so disastrous. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The ...
Lynn and I have just returned from a news conference where Hipkins, fresh from visiting a relief centre in Mangere, was repeatedly challenged to justify the extension of subsidies to create more climate emissions when the effects of climate change had just proved so disastrous. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The ...
A new Prime Minister, a revitalised Cabinet, and possibly revised priorities – but is the political and, importantly, economic landscape much different? Certainly some within the news media were excited by the changes which Chris Hipkins announced yesterday or – before the announcement – by the prospect of changes in ...
Currently the government's strategy for reducing transport emissions hinges on boosting vehicle fuel-efficiency, via the clean car standard and clean car discount, and some improvements to public transport. The former has been hugely successful, and has clearly set us on the right path, but its also not enough, and will ...
Buzz from the Beehive Before he announced his Cabinet yesterday, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins announced he would be flying to Australia next week to meet that country’s Prime Minister. And before Kieran McAnulty had time to say “Three Waters” after his promotion to the Local Government portfolio, he was dishing ...
The quarterly labour market statistics were released this morning, showing that unemployment has risen slightly to 3.4%. There are now 99,000 people unemployed - 24,000 fewer than when Labour took office. So, I guess the Reserve Bank's plan to throw people out of work to stop wage rises "inflation", and ...
Another night of heavy rain, flooding, damage to homes, and people worried about where the hell all this water is going to go as we enter day twenty two of rain this year.Honestly if the government can’t sell Three Waters on the back of what has happened with storm water ...
* Dr Bryce Edwards writes – Prime Minister Chris Hipkins continues to be the new broom in Government, re-setting his Government away from its problem areas in his Cabinet reshuffle yesterday, and trying to convince voters that Labour is focused on “bread and butter” issues. The ministers responsible for unpopular ...
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins continues to be the new broom in Government, re-setting his Government away from its problem areas in his Cabinet reshuffle yesterday, and trying to convince voters that Labour is focused on “bread and butter” issues. The ministers responsible for unpopular reforms in water and DHB centralisation ...
Hi,It’s weird to me that in 2023 we still have people falling for multi-level marketing schemes (MLMs for short). There are Netflix documentaries about them, countless articles, and last year we did an Armchaired and Dangerous episode on them.Then you check a ticketing website like EventBrite and see this shit ...
Nanaia Mahuta fell the furthest in the Cabinet reshuffle. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: PM Chris Hipkins unveiled a Cabinet this afternoon he hopes will show wavering voters that a refreshed Labour Government is focused on ‘bread and butter cost of living’ issues, rather than the unpopular, unwieldy and massively centralising ...
Nanaia Mahuta fell the furthest in the Cabinet reshuffle. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: PM Chris Hipkins unveiled a Cabinet this afternoon he hopes will show wavering voters that a refreshed Labour Government is focused on ‘bread and butter cost of living’ issues, rather than the unpopular, unwieldy and massively centralising ...
Shortly, the absolute state of Wayne Brown. But before that, something I wrote four years ago for the council’s own media machine. It was a day-in-the-life profile of their many and varied and quite possibly unnoticed vital services. We went all over Auckland in 48 hours for the story, the ...
Completed reads for January Lilith, by George MacDonald The Rime of the Ancient Mariner (poem), by Samuel Taylor Coleridge Christabel (poem), by Samuel Taylor Coleridge The Saga of Ragnar Lodbrok, by Anonymous The Lay of Kraka (poem), by Anonymous 1066 and All That, by W.C. Sellar and R.J. ...
Pity the poor Brits. They just can’t catch a break. After years of reporting of lying Boris Johnson, a change to a less colourful PM in Rishi Sunak has resulted in a smooth media pivot to an end-of-empire narrative. The New York Times, no less, amplifies suggestions that Blighty ...
On that day all the springs of the great deep burst forth, and the floodgates of the heavens were opened. And rain fell on the earth.Genesis 6:11-12THE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS that dumped a record-breaking amount of rain on Auckland this anniversary weekend will reoccur with ever-increasing frequency. The planet’s atmosphere is ...
Buzz from the Beehive There has been plenty to keep the relevant Ministers busy in flood-stricken Auckland over the past day or two. But New Zealand, last time we looked, extends north of Auckland into Northland and south of the Bombay Hills all the way to the bottom of the ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters When early settlers came to the confluence of the Sacramento and American Rivers before the California Gold Rush, Indigenous people warned them that the Sacramento Valley could become an inland sea when great winter rains came. The storytellers described water filling the ...
Wayne Brown managed a smile when meeting with Remuera residents, but he was grumpy about having to deal with “media drongos”. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: In my pick of the news links found in my rounds since 4am for paying subscribers below the paywall:Wayne Brown moans about the media and ...
Wayne Brown managed a smile when meeting with Remuera residents, but he was grumpy about having to deal with “media drongos”. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: In my pick of the news links found in my rounds since 4am for paying subscribers below the paywall:Wayne Brown moans about the media and ...
Dr Bryce Edwards writes – Last night’s opinion polls answered the big question of whether a switch of prime minister would really be a gamechanger for election year. The 1News and Newshub polls released at 6pm gave the same response: the shift from Jacinda Ardern to Chris Hipkins ...
Kia ora e te whānau. Today, we mark the anniversary of the signing of Te Tiriti o Waitangi - and our commitment to working in partnership with Māori to deliver better outcomes and tackle the big issues, together. ...
We’ve just announced a massive infrastructure investment to kick-start new housing developments across New Zealand. Through our Infrastructure Acceleration Fund, we’re making sure that critical infrastructure - like pipes, roads and wastewater connections - is in place, so thousands more homes can be built. ...
The Green Party is joining more than 20 community organisations to call for an immediate rent freeze in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland, after reports of landlords intending to hike rents after flooding. ...
When Chris Hipkins took on the job of Prime Minister, he said bread and butter issues like the cost of living would be the Government’s top priority – and this week, we’ve set out extra support for families and businesses. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to provide direct support to low-income households and to stop subsidising fossil fuels during a climate crisis. ...
The tools exist to help families with surging costs – and as costs continue to rise it is more urgent than ever that we use them, the Green Party says. ...
An historic Northland pā site with links to Ngāpuhi chief Hongi Hika is to be handed back to iwi, after collaboration by government, private landowners and local hapū. “It is fitting that the ceremony for the return of the Pākinga Pā site is during Waitangi weekend,” said Regional Development Minister ...
The Government is investing in a suite of initiatives to unlock Māori and Pacific resources, talent and knowledge across the science and research sector, Research, Science and Innovation Minister Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Two new funds – He tipu ka hua and He aka ka toro – set to ...
Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta departs for India tomorrow as she continues to reconnect Aotearoa New Zealand to the world. The visit will begin in New Delhi where the Foreign Minister will meet with the Vice President Hon Jagdeep Dhankar and her Indian Government counterparts, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and ...
Over $10 million infrastructure funding to unlock housing in Whangārei The purchase of a 3.279 hectare site in Kerikeri to enable 56 new homes Northland becomes eligible for $100 million scheme for affordable rentals Multiple Northland communities will benefit from multiple Government housing investments, delivering thousands of new homes for ...
The Government is supporting one of Aotearoa New Zealand’s most significant historic sites, the Waitangi Treaty Grounds, as it continues to recover from the impacts of COVID-19. “The Waitangi Treaty Grounds are a taonga that we should protect and look after. This additional support will mean people can continue to ...
A memorial event at a key battle site in the New Zealand land wars is an important event to mark the progress in relations between Māori and the Crown as we head towards Waitangi Day, Minister for Te Arawhiti Kelvin Davis said. The Battle of Ohaeawai in June 1845 saw ...
More Police officers are being deployed to the frontline with the graduation of 54 new constables from the Royal New Zealand Police College today. The graduation ceremony for Recruit Wing 362 at Te Rauparaha Arena in Porirua was the first official event for Stuart Nash since his reappointment as Police ...
The Government is unlocking an additional $700,000 in support for regions that have been badly hit by the recent flooding and storm damage in the upper North Island. “We’re supporting the response and recovery of Auckland, Waikato, Coromandel, Northland, and Bay of Plenty regions, through activating Enhanced Taskforce Green to ...
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has welcomed the announcement that Her Royal Highness The Princess Royal, Princess Anne, will visit New Zealand this month. “Princess Anne is travelling to Aotearoa at the request of the NZ Army’s Royal New Zealand Corps of Signals, of which she is Colonel in Chief, to ...
A new Government and industry strategy launched today has its sights on growing the value of New Zealand’s horticultural production to $12 billion by 2035, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor said. “Our food and fibre exports are vital to New Zealand’s economic security. We’re focussed on long-term strategies that build on ...
25 cents per litre petrol excise duty cut extended to 30 June 2023 – reducing an average 60 litre tank of petrol by $17.25 Road User Charge discount will be re-introduced and continue through until 30 June Half price public transport fares extended to the end of June 2023 saving ...
The strong economy has attracted more people into the workforce, with a record number of New Zealanders in paid work and wages rising to help with cost of living pressures. “The Government’s economic plan is delivering on more better-paid jobs, growing wages and creating more opportunities for more New Zealanders,” ...
The Government is providing a further $1 million to the Mayoral Relief Fund to help communities in Auckland following flooding, Minister for Emergency Management Kieran McAnulty announced today. “Cabinet today agreed that, given the severity of the event, a further $1 million contribution be made. Cabinet wishes to be proactive ...
The new Cabinet will be focused on core bread and butter issues like the cost of living, education, health, housing and keeping communities and businesses safe, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has announced. “We need a greater focus on what’s in front of New Zealanders right now. The new Cabinet line ...
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins will travel to Canberra next week for an in person meeting with Australian Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese. “The trans-Tasman relationship is New Zealand’s closest and most important, and it was crucial to me that my first overseas trip as Prime Minister was to Australia,” Chris Hipkins ...
The Government is providing establishment funding of $100,000 to the Mayoral Relief Fund to help communities in Auckland following flooding, Minister for Emergency Management Kieran McAnulty announced. “We moved quickly to make available this funding to support Aucklanders while the full extent of the damage is being assessed,” Kieran McAnulty ...
As the Mayor of Auckland has announced a state of emergency, the Government, through NEMA, is able to step up support for those affected by flooding in Auckland. “I’d urge people to follow the advice of authorities and check Auckland Emergency Management for the latest information. As always, the Government ...
Ka papā te whatitiri, Hikohiko ana te uira, wāhi rua mai ana rā runga mai o Huruiki maunga Kua hinga te māreikura o te Nota, a Titewhai Harawira Nā reira, e te kahurangi, takoto, e moe Ka mōwai koa a Whakapara, kua uhia te Tai Tokerau e te kapua pōuri ...
Carmel Sepuloni, Minister for Social Development and Employment, has activated Enhanced Taskforce Green (ETFG) in response to flooding and damaged caused by Cyclone Hale in the Tairāwhiti region. Up to $500,000 will be made available to employ job seekers to support the clean-up. We are still investigating whether other parts ...
The 2023 General Election will be held on Saturday 14 October 2023, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today. “Announcing the election date early in the year provides New Zealanders with certainty and has become the practice of this Government and the previous one, and I believe is best practice,” Jacinda ...
Jacinda Ardern has announced she will step down as Prime Minister and Leader of the Labour Party. Her resignation will take effect on the appointment of a new Prime Minister. A caucus vote to elect a new Party Leader will occur in 3 days’ time on Sunday the 22nd of ...
In Canberra Chris Hipkins has touched down in Australia’s capital – his first overseas visit since becoming prime minister just three weeks ago. After disembarking from the Airforce Boeing, Hipkins was greeted by his former caucus colleague and current high commissioner to Australia, Dame Annette King. The pair hugged on ...
The rise of TikTok-inspired ‘algospeak’ is making online communication even more of a nightmare, writes SYSCA‘s Lucy Blakiston.This is an excerpt from the Shit You Should Care About daily newsletter – sign up here.Content warning: sexual assault The other day I was chatting with a friend about algospeak – ...
School, finally, is back this week in the nation’s largest city to howls of relief from many parents and (one hopes) some students also. Yet the resumption of normal service shouldn’t obscure a curious inconsistency. The past few weeks have shown ...
MediaRoom column: On the eve of a Cabinet decision on the fate of the proposed public broadcasting merger, questions emerge over the engagement by the TVNZ chief executive of two former National government aides to change the narrative and push TVNZ's view on the Government's plan Within weeks of taking over ...
Olivia Sisson performs a good old-fashioned cost comparison – and it might change the way you buy your veges.The price of food in New Zealand is shocking. So, how to cope? The recommendations are starting to feel like the avo-toast-flat-white trope. Cut those items out and there it is, ...
An early morning fire at an egg-laying farm in Orini, Waikato yesterday has claimed the lives of at least 50,000 hens. The farm is operated by New Zealand’s largest egg producer Zeagold, the country’s biggest egg producer, whose eggs are sold under ...
The Natural and Built Environment Bill and Spatial Planning Bill will make resource management issues worse and should be withdrawn, Federated Farmers has told the Environment Select Committee. "Farmers agree the costly, slow and unpredictable processes ...
New police minister Stuart Nash has met with new health minister Ayesha Verrall to talk about the issue with the aim of preventing ram raids. Nash wants to speed up the scheduled reduction of dairies that can sell cigarettes. Nash made the comments at a police graduation ceremony in Porirua last ...
It’s Tuesday, February 7 and welcome to a special edition of The Spinoff’s live updates. Stewart Sowman-Lund will be on the ground in Canberra today as PM Chris Hipkins meets with his Australian counterpart Anthony Albanese. What you need to know Chris Hipkins will meet Australian PM ...
Politicking by politicians was less overt but whether there was less politics probably depends on your definition of the word and what lay beneath the optics, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. ...
Why is it becoming harder to achieve debt-free status? Money Sweetspot is a new company that uses compassion and incentives to help people pay off their debts. Co-founder Sasha Lockley talks to Simon about using gamification to increase financial literacy, breaking the cycle of poverty, and how she intends to ...
Prime minister Chris Hipkins is heading to Australia today for his first face-to-face meeting with an international leader. He’ll be meeting with Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese during his single-day visit to Canberra. The Spinoff live updates will be on the ground in Australia as the meeting takes place and ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By C Raina MacIntyre, Professor of Global Biosecurity, NHMRC Principal Research Fellow, Head, Biosecurity Program, Kirby Institute, UNSW Sydney Pexels/Uriel Mont The question of whether and to what extent face masks work to prevent respiratory infections such as COVID and influenza ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Mackinnon, Professor and Director, Centre for Clean Energy Technologies and Practices, Queensland University of Technology Superconducting cables transmit electicity without lossesShutterstock For most of us, transmitting power is an invisible part of modern life. You flick the switch and the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Munro, Professor, Faculty of Education and Arts, Australian Catholic University Shutterstock Many students are returning to school this year face a renewed focus on grammar. Just before Christmas, the NSW curriculum was overhauled to include the “explicit teaching of ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Debra Dudek, Associate professor, School of Arts and Humanities, Edith Cowan University Universal Life is full of surprises – some pleasant and some painful – but there can be no surprises without expectations. We expect the sun to come up ...
News stories have honed in on the fact Wayne Brown and his staff were left off a ‘vital’ email distribution list on the night of the Auckland floods. But internal emails from the mayor’s chief of staff show he was getting regular briefings from officials.Internal council emails obtained by ...
In a reality shaped by climate crisis, how do you think and feel about the changed present – and the changing future – without spiralling into despair?In the midst of a flood there’s not much time to think about the future. But when the water recedes, the reality of ...
06 Feb The news today of the death of 75,000 chickens at an egg farm in Waikato is yet another outrageous and avoidable tragedy. “The fact that so many hens died in this fire in the Waikato is a testament to the systemic neglect and disregard ...
Lawmakers are being urged to bridge the legal and scientific divide over braided rivers. David Williams reports What is a river? More particularly, what is a braided river? An expert group known as The Land The Law Forgot is urging politicians considering the Natural and Built Environment Bill – one ...
Confidence from US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell kept markets buoyant. But mortgage payments and job losses could dampen consumer spending in NZ ...
Someone left the Swift out in the rain - insurance agents are overloaded with calls about flood-damaged vehicles It’s been a big week for testing the submarining abilities of the family station wagon. Thousands of cars around the upper North Island have been written off following the devastating floods of ...
The first of the air force's new Poseidon aircraft has landed in New Zealand. But is this the sort of workhorse the military needs? Our old heroes of the Air Force, the P-3 Orions, have retired after 56 years of service - and the first of the flash new Poseidon ...
Chris Hipkins’ first overseas trip as Prime Minister comes on relatively friendly territory. But while there have been marked improvements in the trans-Tasman relationship since a change in Canberra, there is still plenty to discuss, as Sam Sachdeva writes In many ways, it is fitting Chris Hipkins should make Australia the ...
Fiordland National Park is the crowning jewel of our national parks and arguably our greatest tourist magnet. But conservationists warn that marine life has been put at risk because the park’s waters are unprotected. Heidi Bendikson’s investigation shows they are right. Tourists on the 'M.V Sinbad' clamber to the bow to ...
As Auckland copes with unprecedented flooding, Mairi Jay points to lessons from extreme weather events in British Columbia that could be vitally important for policy-makers and administrators here “Expect extreme weather events” the climate scientists tell us. But sometimes the extreme is beyond our imagining. On Thursday January 26, New Zealand’s Met Service predicted ...
UK and US deals for NZ novels Three of the best New Zealand novels of recent years are about to be published in the UK and the US. All three books – She's a Killer by Kirsten McDougall, Greta and Valdin by Rebecca K Reilly, and The New Animals ...
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RNZ News New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has described today’s Waitangi Day dawn service as moving and says he welcomes the shift away from a focus on politics. Hundreds of people gathered before dawn to commemorate 183 years since Te Tiriti o Waitangi was signed. Hipkins said the national ...
By Hilaire Bule, RNZ Pacific Vanuatu correspondent in Port Vila Vanuatu’s prime minister has stressed any future employment within the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) Secretariat must be from MSG member countries. Prime Minister Ishmael Kalsakau, who is also chair of the MSG Secretariat, made the statement following the recruitment of ...
SPECIAL REPORT:By Yamin Kogoya On Friday 10 February 2023, it will be one month since the Papua Governor Lukas Enembe was “kidnapped” at a local restaurant during his lunch hour by the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) and security forces. The crisis began in September 2022, when Governor Enembe was ...
By Kālino Lātū, editor of Kaniva News Dr Sitiveni Halapua, former deputy leader of Tonga’s Democratic Movement, has died aged 74. Born on February 13, 1949, he was a respected academic, a pioneer of Tonga’s democratic reforms and pioneer of a conflict resolution system based on traditional practices. Halapua earned ...
COMMENTARY:By Richard Naidu in Suva Five weeks on from Christmas Eve, I think most of us are still a bit stunned at what has happened in Fiji. A new government came to power in dramatic circumstances. It took not one but two Sodelpa management board meetings to change it, ...
By Red Tsounga Another house done, and onto the next . . . Volunteers working in Mount Roskill community over the past few days helping those suffering from Auckland’s flash flood devastation have done us proud. Tremendous work by everybody. Here are some random photos of our volunteer teams on ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne Mick Tsikas/AAP Senator Lidia Thorpe announced on Monday that she would be leaving the Greens. Thorpe had split with the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dennis B. Desmond, Lecturer, Cyberintelligence and Cybercrime Investigations, University of the Sunshine Coast The news of a so-called “Chinese spy balloon” being shot down over the US has reignited interest in how nation-states spy on one another. It’s not confirmed that the ...
Today, at a Waitangi ki Waititi concert hosted by Te Whānau o Waipareira at Hoani Waititi Marae, West Auckland; Takutai Moana Natasha Kemp was officially announced as Te Pāti Māori Candidate for Tāmaki Makaurau for the 2023 Election. Hailing ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Daniel Pockett/AAP Victorian Indigenous Senator Lidia Thorpe has defected from the Greens to sit on the crossbench, declaring she wants to fully represent the “Blak Sovereign Movement” in parliament. The announcement by ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Daniel Pockett/AAP Victorian Indigenous Senator Lidia Thorpe has defected from the Greens to sit on the crossbench, declaring she wants to fully represent the “Blak Sovereign Movement” in parliament. The announcement by ...
Sure, Scotty Morrison’s Māori At Work is a wonderful resource for Aotearoa’s collective te reo Māori journey. But is it judgemental enough for the modern office environment?First published September 12 2019 The growing strength of te reo is palpable across Aotearoa, with record numbers of people participating in Mahuru ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jane Mills, Professor and Dean La Trobe Rural Health School, La Trobe University Shutterstock It can be tough to access front-line health care outside the cities and suburbs. For the seven million Australians living in rural communities there are significant ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Donald Rothwell, Professor of International Law, Australian National University Chad Fish/AP Was the balloon that suddenly appeared over the US last week undertaking surveillance? Or was it engaging in research, as China has claimed? While the answers to these ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendan Walker-Munro, Senior Research Fellow, The University of Queensland Shutterstock The generative AI industry will be worth about A$22 trillion by 2030, according to the CSIRO. These systems – of which ChatGPT is currently the best known – can write ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Doug Drury, Professor/Head of Aviation, CQUniversity Australia Shutterstock When booking a flight, do you ever think about which seat will protect you the most in an emergency? Probably not. Most people book seats for comfort, such as leg room, ...
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has described this morning's Waitangi dawn service as moving and says he welcomes the shift away from a focus on politics. ...
Screenwriter Dana Leaming’s debut comedy series Not Even is out now on Prime and Neon. This is the out the gate story of how it got there.Kia ora, Hi, What up? Up to? U up? …I’m Dana. I wrote and co-directed (with Ainsley Gardiner) the TV show Not Even ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne Mick Tsikas/AAP A federal Newspoll, conducted February 1-4 from a sample of 1,512, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, unchanged on ...
The Human Rights Commission, Te Kāhui Tika Tangata, last week released two reports on racism and the impact of colonialism in Aotearoa. Among their many insights was the necessity of a wider understanding of how racism manifests itself. I was honoured to accept an invitation by Te Kāhui Tika Tangata ...
Vincent O’Malley reviews a history of the battle of Gate Pā.First published February 5, 2019 Head up Cameron Road, one of Tauranga’s main arterial routes, a few kilometres out of the city centre and you drive over one of New Zealand’s most important historical sites. The road, named after ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Murray Goot, Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University Support for embedding an Indigenous Voice to parliament in the Constitution has fallen. The polls provide good evidence once you work out how to find it. However, the voters who have ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Doug Drury, Professor/Head of Aviation, CQUniversity Australia Shutterstock When booking a flight, do you ever think about which seat will protect you the most in an emergency? Probably not. Most people book seats for comfort, such as leg room, or ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Libby Rumpff, Senior Research Fellow, The University of Melbourne David Crosling/AAP The Black Summer bushfires of 2019-20 were cataclysmic: a landmark in Australia’s environmental history. They burnt more than 10 million hectares, mostly forests in southeast Australia. Many of our most ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christine Grové, Fulbright Scholar and Adjunct Senior Lecturer, Monash University Anete Lusina/Pexels School attendance levels in Australia are a massive issue according to Education Minister Jason Clare. As he told reporters last week, he hopes to talk to state colleagues ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marion Terrill, Transport and Cities Program Director, Grattan Institute Revising the generous fuel tax credits given to businesses should be a priority for the Albanese government, because keeping them would conflict with two other pressing priorities: reducing carbon emissions and repairing the ...
For nine years he steered the ship he built, but last week Duncan Greive announced his surprise resignation as CEO of The Spinoff. He joins guest host, Jane Yee, to discuss how doing things differently took The Spinoff from an irreverent TV blog to a respected online magazine, and why ...
Three decades ago one of the giants of New Zealand thinking and writing, Ranginui Walker, published Ka Whawhai Tonu Mātou, Struggle Without End. The book, originally released in 1990 and revised in 2004, is a history of Aotearoa from a Māori perspective. It had a profound influence and today remains ...
A review for Waitangi weekend The bestselling novel Kāwai: For Such a Time as This by Monty Soutar feels like the story Matua Monty has been working toward telling his entire life. It aims for the loftiest mountain peak in a valiant attempt at the fabled Great New Zealand ...
Unfortunately the great flood of January 27 was not a one-off but a precursor to more emergencies likely to strike the city because of environmental effects of climate change. While the Auckland floods are proving devastating, costly and far-reaching, they have also had the strange effect of revealing Tamaki Makaurau's original landscape. ...
Health inequities between Pākehā and Māori are often framed as complex and difficult to change. But making access to GPs and dentists free will not only save money for whānau using these services, it will also save money for the health system and ensure Māori rights to good governance and equity ...
One of New Zealand's most promising fast bowlers, Molly Penfold, was surprised to get the call-up for the T20 World Cup, but she has a great support team around her, Merryn Anderson reports. She's only played one T20 for the White Ferns, and she's yet to take a wicket, but Molly ...
Labour and National’s leaders came to Waitangi agreed on which areas need more investment in election year. But as political editor Jo Moir writes, the country is going to see a big debate on how Māori should benefit from it Prime Minister Chris Hipkins used his speech at Sunday’s pōwhiri ...
Securing the right to housing will require us to challenge the very systems and ideologies that are doing such harm to our planet.Opinion: The images of rivers running down our streets, cars floating down the motorway, houses flooded and half-submerged buses ferrying people across the causeway, will stick with ...
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It is hard to separate the politics from Waitangi, but the day party leaders were welcomed on to Te Whare Rūnanga was largely free of inflammatory rhetoric and political point scoring. ...
Rheive Grey pays tribute to one political party’s unapologetic commitment to markers of Māori identity, from hei tiki to waiata to tikitiki. I’m proud to be Māori. If you’re like me, it’s hard to read that sentence without singing it in your head. That’s either the power of good campaigning, ...
The Russian invasion of Ukraine – an act of aggression 
WAITANGI, CO-GOVERNANCE, THREE WATERS Thomas Cranmer: Waitangi Day and the quiet revolution Glenn McConnell (Stuff): Waitangi in 2023: Plenty of networking, little sign of protest Tim Watkin (Pundit): Aotearoa New Zealand As A “Little Experiment”. The Rights, Wrongs & Other Wrongs Of Christoper Luxon Audrey Young (Herald): Such a good ...5 hours ago
Hipkins is doing the right thing for New Zealanders already living in Australia, but there’s now a growing risk of a fresh surge of net emigration of frustrated young Kiwis across the Tasman. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTLDR: Employers here in Aotearoa are desperate to keep their best-trained, most-productive ...6 hours ago
This post contains two guest posts from readers, both of which were sent to us after the flooding on Friday 27 January, both of which discuss how we handle our stormwater. This is a guest post from Ed Clayton, who’s written for us before about Auckland’s relationship with freshwater, ...6 hours ago
TLDR: For paying subscribers, here’s the key breaking news, scoops and links I’ve found since 4 am this morning, as of 7 am, including:A 7.8 magnitude earthquake killed more than 2,200 in Turkey near its border with Syria; ReutersMetService has warned a new cyclone is forming north of Aotearoa that ...7 hours ago
The politics of Waitangi and the Treaty evident over the weekend have moved into a new space. The politics of Waitangi and the Treaty evident over the weekend have moved into a new space. There is a new wave of Maori activism, which sees the Treaty as a living ...9 hours ago
Originally published by The Hill After decades of failure to pass major federal climate legislation, Congress finally broke through last year with the Inflation Reduction Act and its close to $400 billion in clean energy investments. Energy modeling experts estimated that these provisions would help the U.S. cut its carbon pollution ...19 hours ago
Apology Accepted? “I dropped the ball on Friday, I was too slow to be seen …The communications weren’t fast enough – including mine. I’m sorry for that.”– Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown.HOW OFTEN do politicians apologise? Sincerely apologise? Not offer voters the weasel words: “If my actions have offended anyone, then I ...22 hours ago
At first blush, Christopher Luxon’s comment at the parliamentary powhiri at Waitangi this year sounded tone deaf. The Leader of the Opposition in talking about the Treaty of Waitangi described New Zealand as “a little experiment”. It seemed to diminish the treaty and the very idea of our nation. Yet ...24 hours ago
THE (new) Prime Minister said nobody understands what co-governance means, later modified to that there were so many varying interpretations that there was no common understanding. BRIAN EASTON writes: Co-governance cannot be derived from the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. It does not use the word. It ...1 day ago
A brief postscript to yesterday’s newsletter…Watching the predawn speeches just now, the reverence of those speaking and the respectful nature of those listening under umbrellas in the dark. I felt a great sadness at the words from Christopher Luxon last evening still in my head. The singing in the dark accompanied ...1 day ago
by Don Franks While on holiday,I stayed a few days in Scotland with a friend who showed me one of the country’s great working-class achievements. It was a few miles out of central Edinburgh, a huge cantilever bridge across the river Forth. The Forth Bridge was the first major structure ...2 days ago
Look at us here on our beautiful islands in the South Pacific at the start of 2023, we have come so far.Ten days ago we saw a Māori Governor General swearing in our new PM and our first Pasifika Deputy PM, ahead of this year’s parliament where they will be ...2 days ago
The Herald’s headline writers are at it again! A sensible and balanced piece by Liam Dann on the battle against inflation carries a headline that suggests that NZ is doing worse than the rest of the world. Check it out and see for yourself if I am right. Is this ...2 days ago
Photo by Anna Demianenko on UnsplashTLDR: Here’s my longer reads and listens for the weekend for sharing with The Kaka’s paying subscribers. I’ve opened this one up for all to give everyone a taste of the sorts of extras you get as a full paying subscriber.Subscribe nowDeeper reads and listens ...2 days ago
Hello from the middle of a long weekend where I’m letting the last few days unspool, not ready, not yet, to give words to the hardest of what we heard.Instead, today, here are some good words from other people.Mother CourageWhen I wrote last year about Mum and Dad’s move to ...2 days ago
Workers Now is a new slate of candidates contesting this year’s general election. James Robb and Don Franks are the people behind this initiative and they are hoping to put the spotlight on working people’s interests. Both are seasoned activists who have campaigned for workers’ rights over many decades. Here is ...3 days ago
Buzz from the Beehive Politicians keen to curry favour with Māori tribal leaders have headed north for Waitangi weekend. More than a few million dollars of public funding are headed north, too. Not all of this money is being trumpeted on the Beehive website, the Government’s official website. ...3 days ago
Our annual post related to the comparisons between long standing records and climate models. As frequent readers will know, we maintain a page of comparisons between climate model projections and the relevant observational records, and since they are mostly for the global mean numbers, these get updated once ...4 days ago
The (new) Prime Minister said nobody understands what co-governance means, later modified to that there were so many varying interpretations that there was no common understanding.Co-governance cannot be derived from the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. It does not use the word. It refers to ‘government’ on ...4 days ago
It’s that time of the week again when and I co-host our ‘hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kaka. Jump on this link for our chat about the week’s news with special guests Auckland Central MP Chloe Swarbrick and Auckland City Councillor Julie Fairey, including:Auckland’s catastrophic floods, which ...4 days ago
In March last year, in a panic over rising petrol prices caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the government made a poor decision, "temporarily" cutting fuel excise tax by 25 cents a litre. Of course, it turned out not to be temporary at all, having been extended in May, July, ...4 days ago
A couple of weeks ago, after NCEA results came out, my son’s enrolment at Auckland Uni for this year was confirmed - he is doing a BSc majoring in Statistics. Well that is the plan now, who knows what will take his interest once he starts.I spent a bit of ...4 days ago
Hi,At 4.43pm yesterday it arrived — a cease and desist letter from the guy I mentioned in my last newsletter. I’d written an article about “WEWE”, a global multi-level marketing scam making in-roads into New Zealand. MLMs are terrible for many of the same reasons megachurches are terrible, and I ...4 days ago
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has undergone a stern baptisim of fire in his first week in his new job, but it doesn’t get any easier. Next week, he has a vital meeting in Canberra with his Australian counterpart Anthony Albanese, where he has to establish ...5 days ago
TLDR: Including my pick of the news and other links in my checks around the news sites since 4am. Paying subscribers can see them all below the fold.In Aotearoa’s political economyBrown vs Fish Read more ...5 days ago
They say a week is a long time in politics. For Mayor Wayne Brown, turns out 24 hours was long enough for many of us to see, quite obviously, “something isn’t right here…”. That in fact, a lot was going wrong. Very wrong indeed. Mainly because it turns ...6 days ago
Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTLDR: Here’s a quick roundup of the news today for paying subscribers on a slightly frantic, very wet, and then very warm day. In Aotearoa’s political economy today Read more ...6 days ago
Tomorrow we have a funeral, and thank you all of you for your very kind words and thoughts — flowers, even.Our friend Michèle messaged: we never get to feel one thing at a time, us grownups, and oh boy is that ever the truth. Tomorrow we have the funeral, and ...6 days ago
... 6 days ago
Another night of heavy rain, flooding, damage to homes, and people worried about where the hell all this water is going to go as we enter day twenty two of rain this year.Honestly if the government can’t sell Three Waters on the back of what has happened with storm water ...6 days ago
Hi,It’s weird to me that in 2023 we still have people falling for multi-level marketing schemes (MLMs for short). There are Netflix documentaries about them, countless articles, and last year we did an Armchaired and Dangerous episode on them.Then you check a ticketing website like EventBrite and see this shit ...6 days ago
Shortly, the absolute state of Wayne Brown. But before that, something I wrote four years ago for the council’s own media machine. It was a day-in-the-life profile of their many and varied and quite possibly unnoticed vital services. We went all over Auckland in 48 hours for the story, the ...7 days ago
Completed reads for January Lilith, by George MacDonald The Rime of the Ancient Mariner (poem), by Samuel Taylor Coleridge Christabel (poem), by Samuel Taylor Coleridge The Saga of Ragnar Lodbrok, by Anonymous The Lay of Kraka (poem), by Anonymous 1066 and All That, by W.C. Sellar and R.J. ...7 days ago
Pity the poor Brits. They just can’t catch a break. After years of reporting of lying Boris Johnson, a change to a less colourful PM in Rishi Sunak has resulted in a smooth media pivot to an end-of-empire narrative. The New York Times, no less, amplifies suggestions that Blighty ...7 days ago
Wayne Brown managed a smile when meeting with Remuera residents, but he was grumpy about having to deal with “media drongos”. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: In my pick of the news links found in my rounds since 4am for paying subscribers below the paywall:Wayne Brown moans about the media and ...1 week ago
Kia ora e te whānau. Today, we mark the anniversary of the signing of Te Tiriti o Waitangi - and our commitment to working in partnership with Māori to deliver better outcomes and tackle the big issues, together. ...1 day ago
The Green Party calls on the Government to end perpetual leases over Māori land so that Māori landowners can directly control their lands. ...3 days ago
An historic Northland pā site with links to Ngāpuhi chief Hongi Hika is to be handed back to iwi, after collaboration by government, private landowners and local hapū. “It is fitting that the ceremony for the return of the Pākinga Pā site is during Waitangi weekend,” said Regional Development Minister ...1 hour ago
In Canberra Chris Hipkins has touched down in Australia’s capital – his first overseas visit since becoming prime minister just three weeks ago. After disembarking from the Airforce Boeing, Hipkins was greeted by his former caucus colleague and current high commissioner to Australia, Dame Annette King. The pair hugged on ...37 mins ago
School, finally, is back this week in the nation’s largest city to howls of relief from many parents and (one hopes) some students also. Yet the resumption of normal service shouldn’t obscure a curious inconsistency. The past few weeks have shown ...2 hours ago
MediaRoom column: On the eve of a Cabinet decision on the fate of the proposed public broadcasting merger, questions emerge over the engagement by the TVNZ chief executive of two former National government aides to change the narrative and push TVNZ's view on the Government's plan Within weeks of taking over ...2 hours ago
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By C Raina MacIntyre, Professor of Global Biosecurity, NHMRC Principal Research Fellow, Head, Biosecurity Program, Kirby Institute, UNSW Sydney Pexels/Uriel Mont The question of whether and to what extent face masks work to prevent respiratory infections such as COVID and influenza ...6 hours ago
Willie Jackson warned his colleagues what would happen in a vacuum on co-governance. 'Terrible' abuse suffered by Nanaia Mahuta is one outcome. ...8 hours ago
Lawmakers are being urged to bridge the legal and scientific divide over braided rivers. David Williams reports What is a river? More particularly, what is a braided river? An expert group known as The Land The Law Forgot is urging politicians considering the Natural and Built Environment Bill – one ...8 hours ago
Confidence from US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell kept markets buoyant. But mortgage payments and job losses could dampen consumer spending in NZ ...9 hours ago
We should give German Chancellor Olaf Scholz more credit for helping Ukraine in adverse circumstances ...9 hours ago
Someone left the Swift out in the rain - insurance agents are overloaded with calls about flood-damaged vehicles It’s been a big week for testing the submarining abilities of the family station wagon. Thousands of cars around the upper North Island have been written off following the devastating floods of ...9 hours ago
The first of the air force's new Poseidon aircraft has landed in New Zealand. But is this the sort of workhorse the military needs? Our old heroes of the Air Force, the P-3 Orions, have retired after 56 years of service - and the first of the flash new Poseidon ...9 hours ago
Chris Hipkins’ first overseas trip as Prime Minister comes on relatively friendly territory. But while there have been marked improvements in the trans-Tasman relationship since a change in Canberra, there is still plenty to discuss, as Sam Sachdeva writes In many ways, it is fitting Chris Hipkins should make Australia the ...9 hours ago
As the floodwaters recede, modelling shows the risks of inundation fall unequally across NZ, ...9 hours ago
A painter's experience dealing with NZ Customs is a salutary lesson in getting your paperwork right ...9 hours ago
Fiordland National Park is the crowning jewel of our national parks and arguably our greatest tourist magnet. But conservationists warn that marine life has been put at risk because the park’s waters are unprotected. Heidi Bendikson’s investigation shows they are right. Tourists on the 'M.V Sinbad' clamber to the bow to ...9 hours ago
As Auckland copes with unprecedented flooding, Mairi Jay points to lessons from extreme weather events in British Columbia that could be vitally important for policy-makers and administrators here “Expect extreme weather events” the climate scientists tell us. But sometimes the extreme is beyond our imagining. On Thursday January 26, New Zealand’s Met Service predicted ...9 hours ago
UK and US deals for NZ novels Three of the best New Zealand novels of recent years are about to be published in the UK and the US. All three books – She's a Killer by Kirsten McDougall, Greta and Valdin by Rebecca K Reilly, and The New Animals ...9 hours ago
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This war needs to end yesterday and never would have started but for the destructive tentacles of the USA .Negotiation not more weapons .Allowing america to add another notch to their failed state belt could be the last act of a doomed planet .
So basically your position is that Ukraine deserved it because her skirt was too short and she was flirting with other boys? Is that the gist?
populuxe1 – wtf?
But yes Ukraine is getting what they deserve. Zelenski and his war machine have had years to sort this out. Well they are getting sorted now and there's fuck all the yanks can actually do about it. I hope Bidens wardogs lose to Trump in the next election as a blowback for funding this madness.
The Ukraine civilians are the big losers, and don't deserve any of this,
I want NZ to send aid only to the civilians only. Zelenski and his army can go to hell, and they certainly are!
Yup – her skirt was too short. Musta been gagging for it.
I want what he's smoking.
I guess aside from the tiny inconvenient fact that Ukraine did not attack Russian territory, and indeed gave up its nuclear arsenal to be less of a threat. We will probably also have to ignore the utter absurdity of any country casually attacking a country with a nuclear arsenal like Russia.
I suppose you'd prefer it if the Russian forces just assaulted and murdered Ukrainian civilians while the Ukraine military did nothing? What a curious mind you have.
I think they were on the point of invading Crimea, which of course is part of Russia. There was also the matter of the attacks on Donbass etc. which was mostly populated by ethnic Russians.
There is zero evidence that Ukraine was going to send troops to or attack the ukraine in any manner whatsoever.
The fighting/skirmishes in the Donbas region of Ukraine has been going on for somet time why did Putin decide to attack now and why did he try to seize control of the entire country and murder thousands nowhere near the Donbas region ?
Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries on earth.
Zelensky an ex comic/actor is playing the biggest role in his life….the Pandora papers show his pockets are…bulging.
There is no democracy in Ukraine,and the average wage is $400 a month..hardly nirvana.
Ukraine has outlawed speaking Russian,1 of the top 10 spoken languages in…the world.
This war is an avoidable..tragedy.
Ukraine has not outlawed the speaking of Russians. Zelensky is a native Russian speaker so why would he outlaw it? You are making up facts.
This I found on Quora…
'They banned education in Russian.
They banned the ability to speak Russian at school (teachers can be fired for this).
They banned the ability to speak Russian at work (you can be fined or fired for this).
They banned the ability to speak Russian for politics (even politics like the president can’t speak Russian)
Also cinema, theater, excursions, etc, etc.
You can’t even sign in Russian in public in some cities like Lviv.
'It is allowed to speak Russian in private but illegal to provide services in Russian unless specifically asked by customer. So, people in absolutely russian–speaking cities obliged to address customers in ukrainian because they can be fined if some ukrainian from Western Ukraine complains.'
So its not totally banned as you say.
It looks very much like the Ukranians were looking to protect and promote their cultural language. If it was Te Reo we were talking about you would be all for it.
What an idiotic comparison! Te Reo is adding a language to include another culture. Ukraine deleted Russian to persecute a large sector of their population. Estimated native speakers of Russian in Ukraine are 40%!
It is not illegal to provide services in Russian. The law you are referring to states that the service must be made available in Ukrainian UNLESS the customer requests otherwise. In this regard it is similar to what happens in Quebec with French. I disagree with the policy but it is not the same as making speaking another language illegal as you suggest.
Sorry, but you really are very wrong. There is ample evidence from the OSCE that artillery fire from the Ukraine side into Donbass increased by a factor of 30 in the days before the 24th starting on the 16th. Biden knew this barrage had begun when he asserted an imminent invasion and that Putin was already under pressure to take seriously the hell that was being created for Russian speakers in Ukraine
I understand Putin tried over and over again to get Zelenskyy to the negotiating table, but Zelenskyy refused. The invasion was probably the last straw.
Apparently there were movements of crack troops towards Donbas just prior to the invasion. Those could have been preparation for a concerted attack on Donetsk, or possibly to support an invasion of Crimea; ie to cut off a possible counterattack from the East.
Ukraine is known to have a policy of recovering Crimea
POP just a point of fact,they were never Ukraine's nukes.go sit in the corner.
They were Ukraine's nukes the moment the Soviet Union dissolved on 26 December 1991. Someone should have been more careful where they left their toys.
Given that nukes were supplied by the Soviets, there is no implication that Ukraine was entitled to hold on to them once the Soviet Union ceased to exist. The same would apply to Ukraine’s "ownership" of Crimea.
This would be the same Crimea transferred to the Ukraine SSR on the authority of the Supreme Soviet on 19 February 1954 would it?
Now I'm no fancy book-learning diplomat or international lawyer, but given no agreement was ratified transferring either back to Russia with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and Ukraine wasn't a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, there is no case to answer.
When the assignment was made in 1954, I don't think it was envisaged that Crimea would ever fall into the hands of the West. One would suppose that that was never part of the deal. Clearly, with Ukraine moving Westwards, Crimea should have reverted to Russian control.
"Fall into the hands of the West"
It's fascinating watching someone condemning Western economic imperialism while quite brazenly defending Russian neo-imperial rechavism. It really is.
As "fascinating" as it may be to watch, I still consider it sensible for Russia to defend itself against Western Imperialism.
The occasional paragraph would make this easier to read and digest!
Grammarly is an app for that
I echo the comment about paragraphs. Perhaps you could edit this and add a few appropriate paragraphs to make reading a bit easier.
I think this conflict may not last as long as what people think.
Firstly, Russia may well start running low on ammo soon. There have been a number of well publicised attacks on Russian ammo dumps, including in the major Russian staging area of Belgorod. But more importantly, there has just been a huge fire at a major weapons factory in Perm, Russia. This factory manufactures rockets, missiles, and shells used in the Russian war effort. I understand it is the second largest in Russia.
Fires and other sabotage activity in the Belgorod region are relatively close to Ukraine, and are likely due to Ukrainian attacks. But there have been a lot of fires in other key industries well outside of Ukrainian artillery or missile range, and much deeper into Russia. So, it could potentially be that Russian dissidents themselves are attacking some of this infrastructure.
So, this type of activity is going to have an effect on the ability for Russians to resupply their forces with ammunition. Compounding this are the effect of sanctions since many Russian complex military systems and weapons rely on electronics from the US and other western nations meaning the Russians are trying to find work-arounds to get these products.
Secondly, however, on the Ukrainian side of the equation, the Ukrainians are already causing the Russians a lot of trouble before the heavy weapons on the field have even arrived. Once the Ukrainians have these heavy weapons, they will have an endless supply of western ammunition.
Also, the western artillery being provided has longer range than the Russian artillery. That, combined with the counter-battery radar being supplied by the west, will help the Ukrainians accurately target the Russian artillery.
So, there will soon likely be a situation where Russia is struggling for ammunition, and Ukraine is able to destroy the Russian artillery that is the cornerstone of the Russian military war method.
Therefore, I expect within the next month or so that the Ukrainians will be able to start pushing the Russians back out of Ukraine.
Well Nancy Pelosi and her esteemed delegation were/are in the Ukraine.
They have inspiring messages…'we're in it to…win….it'!…and we'll be here til the ..end.
Not seen much dialogue about a negotiated peace settlement from…the U.S.
They are ramping up the supply of 'bullets' for the Ukraine to fire amid the death and…destruction however.
I think the Russians scuppered any hope of a peace deal due to all the war crimes they committed in Bucha, and the fact that they seem intent on erasing the Ukrainian nation.
Why would Ukraine be interested in a peace deal at all, especially when they see they have the chance to push the Russians right out of Ukraine.
One of the first things I think the Ukrainians will do once they have the right equipment from the west is to hit the Crimean bridge that connects Russia to Crimea. This would create a huge problem for the Russians, and as you can see from the article, not something they would be very happy about.
Why would Ukraine be interested in a peace deal at all, especially when they see they have the chance to push the Russians right out of Ukraine.
I think it is the Americans who are trying to push the Russians out of Ukraine, using the Ukranians as dupes. They have been trying since around 2014.
Portraying the Ukrainian people as unwilling dupes of the west is errant nonsense.
Their remembered history of russian/soviet behaviour over the last century combined with they fierce resistance to the russian invasion overwhelming supported by the majority of their population combined with the exodus of millions of civilians to western aligned countries suggests you are the dupe not the ukrainian people.
Mikesh has it about right. It has taken huge amounts of money thrown at extremists by the US in their usual way to create the current situation. 2014 was a US manufactured coup that gave Nato access to fanatics that could be trained and nurtured. Even at the point of the election of Zelenski, the people of Ukraine rejected the obvious extremism of Poroshenko. Zelenski was elected as the outsider that pledged to act on the minsk accords which would have ended hostilities in Donbass and Luhansk
Sure, Yanukovych's blatant corruption couldn't possibly have had anything to do with Euromaidan gaining popularity. Yes, they had money from Washington. Yanukovych was in the pocket of Moscow, but apparently that's OK, and we'll just ignore those inconvenient democratic elections since then.
Well, if corruption is the only metric, Zelenski has quite a large footprint in the pandora papers. As for the elections, he had overwhelming support from the Russian speaking LDNR on the promise of following through on the Minsk agreements. As the link shows, he sold out.
It's not the only metric. There's always good old blood on the ground and civilian death tolls. You just really hate the idea of Ukrainians having any agency.
I'm pretty sure the issue with the Euromaidan was the desire to "do a deal with Europe. Hence the name Euromaidan. the illegal coup which ousted Yanukovich was occasioned by his accepting an economics assistance deal from Russia, when Europe appeared to dragging the chain.
Rather amusing given Russia was hardly in a position to give economic assistance to anyone. Why is it that you can't condemn US militarism without playing apologist for Putin. I can. It's easy. US and Russian imperialism are both bad. See? Easy.
Russia has been giving economic assistance to numerous 3rd world countries for..decades…real aid…not debt bearing aid that is paid to western corporations.
Russia gives SFA – $8 per capita.
We give $90.75 and Norway $812.58.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_development_aid_country_donors
Funny how it seems to go hand in hand with recognising places like Abkhazia and South Ossetia though…
Russia’s foreign aid re-emerges (aiddata.org)
' The first table is based on official development assistance (ODA) figures published by the OECD for members of its Development Assistance Committee (DAC).
The West call creating debt=aid.
The 'aid' gets paid to western corporations…and the recipient country gets landed with the interest and principal.When they default it becomes a lever to remainder..resources.
As it happens Russia gave 15 billion dollars (I think that was the amount) in 2014, with no strings attached. This was what riled the Euromaidan protesters. Some people just don't know when they're well off. Apparently they'd have preferred a much smaller conditional deal from the Europeans.
Not unwilling dupes. Just dupes. Though I suspect they may have been less willing had Trump been reelected.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/05/ukraines-army-is-in-very-bad-state-more-fighting-will-only-destroy-it.html#more
Ukraine is very brave fighting on behalf of the USA.
The Ukrainian military still has a large pool of military aged and trained personnel to draw reinforcements from as a result of the mobilisation orders issued at the start of the war and is receiving massive amounts of military equipment from Western nations. Russia on the other hand is depleting it's professional military wing and is restricted from replenishing the troops in Ukraine with the decision not to declare this a war. The Russians advances in the areas they are attacking on are measured in a few kilometers per day if that and they are losing the momentum and initiative.
From commenter Dave from Austin at the naked capitalism website:
The recent decision to send 40 155 mm track-mounted howitzers to the Ukraine has led to the delivery of the same howitzers to Taiwan to be delayed from 2023 to 2026. And this is just 40 howitzers; in WW II we were producing 1,000/month. De-industrialization has come home to roost
So maybe its Nato thats a little short on weaponry? I mean, a lot is getting blown up as soon as it arrives. Might have to delay the plan of lighting another fire in Taiwan by a few years. Not to mention Israel. They are used to cargo planes arriving on call to resupply missiles rained down on pesky Palestinians but are they now going to have to get in behind first Ukraine, then Taiwan?
The age of the howitzers isn't the point. The point is they are being supplied with counter-battery radar that ups the effectiveness of the artillery to modern standards. The radar allows the Ukrainians to identify the source of incoming artillery fire then target the source and take it out.
I have seen no reports to suggest that large quantities of supplied military aid is being successfully targeted, and how could the Russians possibly validate such a claim?
Do you really think the Ukrainians are so stupid not to realise that the Russians are targeting their stuff, and therefore don't take countermeasures such as splitting their gear into many smaller, distributed locations, setting up decoy warehouses and the like?
Aside from Javelins and Turkish-made drones, little weaponry from NATO states has been deployed yet. Ukraine is still on its old Soviet era MiGs and tanks.
Don't you know that the U.S.A is a member of NATO..or are you just complete meathead?
Sigh. Irrespective of your childish name calling, of the equipment NATO states are funneling into Ukraine, most hasn't been deployed yet because the Ukraine forces prefer to use the old Soviet hardware they're familiar with. More to the point, why do you take such pleasure in Putin's butchery of Ukraine?
If you don't accept that U.S weaponery is being used by Ukraine on a major scale in this conflict,you are not up to date.
I take no pleasure in this tragic conflict.
The U.S don't appear to want to negotiate.
Their strategy appears to be to weaken Russia as it deploys its military resources and ramp up…sanctions.
You don't mean "negotiate", you mean "partition". Didn't work out great for India
Actually, they are fighting for themselves and their freedom, and would likely be fighting still regardless of help from the West.
So, what would you recommend them do? Lay down their weapons and be slaughtered like those in Bucha or Maruipal?
Have you ever wondered why people would rather fight to the death than be under Russian control? It doesn't say much about life under Russia if death is preferable, does it?
Well given the violent history that Russia has inflicted on Ukraine under Imperial Russia rulei& then during its 1st independence from in the from 1917 to the early 20 with the Bolsheviks. Then later with Stalin with Holodomor in the 30's through to the death of Stalin & then 80"s with Chernobyl.
The Ukranians have never trusted Russia & even when it give up it's WMD's & other Strategic Wpns. It sought guarantees from Russia under the Lisbon Protocol & the Budapest Memorandum that Russia won't interfere with it security or it's economic development to make its own decisions as a sovereign country.
But that all changed when Tsar Poot's managed to install his Toady President which to the lead to the 2014 uprising & old mate fled to Russia.
Poland, the Baltic States, Finland & Sweden are in the same boat as Ukraine atm & they would rather die than live back under a Russia Jackboot again. Thence they ended choosing to join NATO & the EU when they got the opportunity.
Unlike Ukraine who tried to give Neutrality a chance, but it wasn't going to work long term when Tsar Poot's is running Russia. So Ukranie tired to join NATO & the EU, but was blocked by Germany's use of its veto vote in NATO & EU by Merkel's German Government. Who was in Poot's back pocket as it wanted cheap Russia Gas IOT shut down its Nuclear & Coal powered power stations.
Yes, Scud – that part of the world has always operated that way.
Don't imagine for one minute that the Ukrainian propagandists or soldiers are any less prone to misbehavior than the Russians are. There are no innocents among the military and politicians making up the news.
Others say that the USA were behind that evil coup d'état of 2014.
My fear is that we are being fed lies from the Ukrainians that are approved of by our 5-eyes masters, and then dispersed to us in our mass media.
That would be a terrible situation if we fear escalation by either major party, because if we believe what we are being fed, we could well provoke that escalation.
And I fear that those patriots who approve of every report of innocent Ukranians being butchered and tortured by evil Russians – well, those ignorant idiots are silly people being duped by their own side's propaganda.
One aspect of Orwell's 1984 has come true: We have always been at war with….
Paranoid much?
Are you claiming the Russian Military hasn't carried out War crimes in Ukraine?
No, I am claiming that it is likely that some could be faked, and it is highly likely that both sides have carried out atrocities.
Except, you know, it's not American territory being invaded and American civilians being abused and murdered. You do understand that Ukraine is, in fact, a sovereign nation with most of the skin in this conflict, yeah? Does it occur to you that a substantial number of the population don't want to have their existence dictated to them by Moscow? I mean, you'd have to be the worst kind of unempathetic nihilist not to understand Ukraine is fighting for its very existence. They've done the Russian client state thing before and they don't like it. The Holodomor is very much in the cultural memory.
The Ukraine was not being "dictated to by Russia". However, that was not the point, as far as the Ukranian Neo Nazis were concerned. They just seemed to hate everything Russian. Zelenskyy was elected as the “peace” candidate, which would seem to indicate that the majority of Ukrainians wanted peace with Russia. It was a pity their government thought otherwise.
The majority of Ukrainians no doubt did want peace with Russia … pity Putin chose to invade and try to take the country over, murder civilians and cause the largest refugee crisis in Europe since the WW2.
Yes. It was a pity the Ukranians gave him reason to believe he had to.
Riiiiiight. So by your logic an ANZAC invasion of the Solomon Islands would be completely justified because their defense agreement with China puts us in range of a Julang-3 in a few years.
A false equivalence. China could probably bomb us with something or other, even without a base on the Solomons. Besides, I doubt whether we represent any sort of threat to China.
How is it a false equivalence? The US has ICBMs and stealth bombers. They don't even need the NATO bases they already have had on or near the Russian border for decades. You can't even explain how a strictly defensive alliance is a threat to a major nuclear power.
And then there's the little issue of Kaliningrad, which NATO has never so much as made a peep about.
Clearly, Putin saw Ukraine's as a threat. I doubt whether china sees us as a threat.
I see pink elephants as a threat. Can I pre-emptively invade them?
I see pink elephants as a threat. Can I pre-emptively invade them?
Sure. Why not. However, most of us don't see pink elephants. Perhaps our alcohol intake is insufficient.
You're funny. You're also historically ignorant. There are still Ukrainians alive who remember the Holodomor – can't imagine why that might make them anti-Russian – maybe something happened in 2014 to upset them? As for the old "Nazi" line, maybe actually look at the make-up of the Ukraine Parliament before uttering such profound absurdities. Of course the majority of Ukrainians wanted peace with Russia – they also wanted their sovereignty. Apparently Putin thought otherwise.
They already had their sovereignty. They just didn't realize that their Nazi dominated government was about to give it away.
I'm inclined to think that, given the obvious hostility that exists between West and East, there ought to be well defined spheres of influence attributed to each. I believe a line of demarkation should extend from the Baltic sea in the North to the Black sea in the South. That would place Ukraine, as well as the Baltic states and Finland within the Russian sphere of influence. there are some who sneer at "Finlandization", but I think the Finns have it about right for the circumstances in which they find themselves.
Sovereignty includes the ability to decide your own defense and economic partnerships without seeking the permission of the neighbours, so clearly Putin was under the impression that Ukraine didn't have sovereignty and said so on more than one occasion.
Also maybe show some evidence of this "Nazi dominated government" – In the last election Svoboda and the other far-right parties only won 2.15% of the vote combined and didn't get seats in the Parliament.
As for "Finlandization", you might think the Finns had it about right, but they've clearly changed their mind on that front thanks to Putin. You know, seeing as they're rushing to join NATO.
Sovereignty includes the ability to decide your own defense and economic partnerships without seeking the permission of the neighbours,
Gaining and maintaining sovereignty can sometime entail taking care not to antagonise one's neighbours. The hoops that Finland had to jump through, after WWII, in order to restore friendly relations with Russia, and ensure its own sovereignty, after siding with Germany during the war, should perhaps be lesson of which all countries should all take heed.
As for "Finlandization", you might think the Finns had it about right, but they've clearly changed their mind on that front thanks to Putin. You know, seeing as they're rushing to join NATO.
Finland was both smart and successful after WWII; they would be fools to now away that success by joining NATO.
Oh just stop it. The bootlicking is unseemly.
Oh just stop it. The bootlicking is unseemly.
Right. Leave Uncle Sam's boots alone.
Perhaps you should stop conflating all western nations with the US and we might get somewhere.
Perhaps you should stop conflating all western nations with the US and we might get somewhere.
US citizens, Joe Biden, Victoria Nuland, and the late John McCain, were in Kyiv around 2014, stirring things up. They are as much to blame as anybody for the current mess in Ukraine.
There some who have suggested that if Russia is allowed to "get away with" its invasion of Ukraine then the three gulf states will be the next to fall, and perhaps they will. It would certainly be in Russia's interest to extend its defensive position to the shores of the Baltic sea. The question is whether NATO would intervene and risk a nuclear war with Russia.
I hardly think NATO would welch on Article 5, especially now that Russia is so thoughtfully justifying their continued existence right now.
I don't think the US would want to see Washington, and perhaps New York, become the 21st century's Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Russia, I think, would be less squeamish. The US chickened out when Ukraine asked for a “no-fly” zone.
NATO obligations would become irrelevant if nuclear war was in the offing.
Nuclear war is in the offing, in case you hadn't been paying attention to Putin's sabre rattling.
I hadn't noticed. It's probably been drowned out by 100 years of US chauvanism.
Parliamentary representation is irrelevant if you are integrated through the military and trained, funded, supplied weapons by Nato and the US. This is pretty much standard for controling US vassal states world wide.
The Cold War is over, my dude. Everyone out of the pool.
Yes but the US still believes it has exceptional status and therefore is able to make and break the rules in the rules based world. The easiest way to enforce this is to train extremists that have no compunction taking lives to be the armed forces of client states. This mode of operating is entirely independent of the cold war and has become orders of manitude greater since the fall of the Soviet Union as has been demonstrated in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Honduras… Unsurprisingly, Russia has no intention of joining this list. Nor China nor Iran. At some point, the formation of Contra like and Al Quaida like armies must be resisted. Russia has reached the point where they no longer can tolerate extremists concentrating on their border and pounding Russian speaking civilians with artillery until invasion is the only option.
So does Russia. That's rather the point. You're so obsessed with the sins of the pot that you're blind to the butchery of the kettle.
My prediction that the War would end after about a month with a peace deal involving greater autonomy in the Donbas and likely the pre-war status quo in Crimea was incorrect. Putin seems to be in it for the long haul now and looks to be aiming to annex most of the East and South of Ukraine. This is obviously unacceptable to the Ukrainian government and given the current Western support for them I expect a majore counter-attack effort from them in the next 2 weeks which could decide the outcome of the war. It is either stalemate or the Russians will be pushed out from territory gained since the start of the war in Feb and possibly more.
Russia is the aggressor in this conflict.
I think I would regard it as a preemptive defensive strike, though I can see how such an act might be regarded as "aggressive" on technical grounds.
"I think I would regard it as a preemptive defensive strike,"
Riiiigth….. So if the goal of this "preemptive defensive strike" was to guard against future NATO expansion, then that hasn't worked out so well has it, with both Finland and Sweden keen to join up now, and all the extra NATO forces in existing NATO regions, and NATO more enthusiastic and united than ever.
Rather than a “preemptive defensive strike”, it looks more like an own-goal to me.
I think you are a wishful thinker. You want the world to be the way your inclinations dictate.
It was not only NATO expansion, despite the West's broken promise made to Gorbachev not to expand NATO. There was also the threatened invasion of Crimea.
Factcheck. NATO never promised not to expand to other countries. According to the article, any comments in that respect were in the context of German re-unification, and that claimed promise couldn't have related to current expansion because it simply wasn't a possibility at the time due to the Warsaw pact was in existence then. Also, there was never any formal agreement with respect to non-expansion of NATO.
The fact check article rates the claims as mostly false.
It is my understanding that the dissolution of the Warsaw pact was the quid pro quo for the promise, so the implication would be that NATO would not extend into the Warsaw pact countries.
If it were such a fundamental change as dissolving the Warsaw pact, then this would have been based on a formal agreement, that would have been formally documented. In which case, I look forward to you linking your source to such a formal agreement between the parties (if it exists).
"Formal" or "informal" would be irrelevant in the world of realpolitik. In that world an agreement is an agreement.
Besides, you have already admitted that an agreement was made. Only you claim it only applied to East Germany. Which of course doesn't make sense because (1) the Warsaw pact was dissolved and (2) East Germany would be part of NATO anyway, once the two Germanies were unified.
So basically if I pre-emptively punched you in the balls because I believe I am psychic and can read minds, that would be completely justified and not the act of an aggressor? Okaaayyyy. Well that's… Interesting? Special?
It wasn't a question of clairvoyance. Happenings in Ukraine spoke for themselves.
More like the voices in Putin's head. How dare Ukraine seek closer ties with better economic and security benefits!
I don't think Western prospects were better. I think the Europeans didn't want them, but were reluctant to admit that because Uncle Sam wanted Ukraine away from Russia.
That didn't stop Germany and France blocking Ukraine from NATO membership. So much for the all powerful Uncle Sam.
I understand it would be against the rules for a country to join NATO if it was involved in a border dispute with another country, as was the case with Ukraine.
This predates 2014
15,000 dead in Ukraines's Eastern provinces, at the hands of the Ukrainian militia, can hardly be considered voices in Putin's head.
Ahem. Looking at the UN breakdown it was 3,403 civilian deaths caused by both sides, which is of course appalling. The rest of that number is around 4400 Ukraine forces, 6517 DPR and LPR militias, and the US State Department throws in an unconfirmed 400-500 Russian military personnel.
It looks as if I was right about it being a "preemptive strike".
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300584237/the-only-correct-decision-no-end-in-sight-for-ukraine-war-as-russias-vladimir-putin-defends-invasion-hails-troops
Hmmmm. It's going on for a lot longer than a "strike". From the same article:
Perhaps he should nuke Washington. Slimy Joe's gun running activities would make the US a legitimate target.
Maybe you should stop playing apologist for a slimy, genocidal, kleptocrat petro-oligarch would-be Tsar like you're making some big ideological statement.
Respectfully, paragraphs are your friend.
If it is of any help, the original post on Nick Kelly’s blog is nicely formatted with paragraphs.
Poor old Nick! How did the paragraphs get unformatted?
No idea. Either he copied & pasted unformatted text straight into TS or he somehow lost the paragraph marks. If I had had more time and had seen it in time I could have re-formatted the Post here.
I don't think there is any serious dispute that Russia is the aggressor. If the invasion and civilian death toll, and rapes and tortures performed by Russian troops were not enough to establish this, the relocation of captured civilians ought to ring alarm bells – a number of minorities were exterminated in this way under the Soviets, and it was the method employed in the Armenian Genocide. The US had their own version, the Trail of Tears.
Yet the hard left who – many of whom still seem to secretly admire Stalin – still wants us to believe that the 'Great Satan' is the sole source of all the world's evils.
I'm not sure I'd call them "hard left", maybe republicans manque. But most of the atrocities they damn the US for, are presently being performed by their world leader of choice. We cannot really call them hypocrites – there's no thought happening there – they merely repeat the cant of their team.
there's no thought happening there – they merely repeat the cant of their team.
I don't think the is any doubt about Ukraine's aggression directed at the Donbas region. That's not just the 'cant of anybody's team'. Nor is Ukraine's desire to repossess Crimea, which could only be achieved through an invasion.
Q.E.D.
Q.E.D.
Quite! I'm glad you agree.
Oh no, we don't agree Mikesh. You have merely demonstrated my point – you are incapable of forming an argument, and simply bleat RT talking points like the sheep from Animal Farm. "Four legs good" and so forth.
Were you capable of debate, rather than talking about the casualties of the Donbas insurgency in isolation, you would produce some plausible scheme whereby the Ukrainian victims of Russian imperialism in the Donbas differed from those you have mentioned. There are quite a few of them, and while you fail to account for them you give every appearance of being a bigot.
Oh no, we don't agree Mikesh. You have merely demonstrated my point – you are incapable of forming an argument, and simply bleat RT talking points like the sheep from Animal Farm. "Four legs good" and so forth.
I think if you look back over my comments you will find plenty of arguments, arguments which bear no resemblance to the ad hominem nonsense above.
Were you capable of debate, rather than talking about the casualties of the Donbas insurgency in isolation, you would produce some plausible scheme whereby the Ukrainian victims of Russian imperialism in the Donbas differed from those you have mentioned.
The Eastern Ukranians wanted a level of autonomy, after the illegal ousting of Yanukovich in 2014, and the fascist coup; and for that purpose wanted to set up a federal system within the Ukraine. That was the reason for the government attacks on their region. Russia came to their defense , which was natural enough given Eastern Ukraine was mostly ethnically Russian. I suspect that the Russians may have had ulterior motives – they wanted to forestall Ukraine's entry into NATO – but the Ukrainians’ barbaric attacks were probably reason enough.
The Eastern Ukranians wanted a level of autonomy, after the illegal ousting of Yanukovich in 2014, and the fascist coup;
Putin wanted an invasion platform and a destabilizing insurgency. The Eastern Ukrainians were not consulted, because Putin is an authoritarian – democracy has no value for him, he considers it a vice. The fascist coup was the Russian occupation, and Donbas residents have been forced to join the Russian invasion as cannon meat. (https://mg.co.za/opinion/2022-04-12-cannon-meat-the-men-of-combat-age-stuck-in-ukraine/)
Dream on. I don't believe any of that. You will need to provide some evidence.
“Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has declared it illegal for any adult male to leave the country.”
(extracted from your link)
Sociologist Kamil Galeev details Russian press-ganging of Ukrainians.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1522196119589171202.html
And of course you have not accounted for the victims.
Every Syrian the Russians killed posthumously became an ISIS fighter, and every Ukrainian a Nazi.
No moral distinctions to draw.
From the above thread.
You will need to provide some evidence.
Yes we know – you only believe Der Moskvafurhrer.
Not much point in debating with fascists really – you can spin lies as fast as I can debunk them.
But you should be ashamed mikesh, to be fanboying a murderous genocide on NZ's only real Left site. We are ashamed of you – you belong on 8Chan.
I'm still waiting to see some evidence from you. Ad hominems just don't cut it. Not that I’m expecting any evidence, since it was all bullshit.
I get my information from news reports, radio, tv, newspapers. etc., but some knowledge of history also helps.
I'm still waiting to see some evidence from you.
Nonsense – you just cited one of my links.
It's not an ad hom either, merely an accurate description – the lackeys of a murderous despot have no business pretending to be progressives – away with you!
More ad hominems. You never learn, do you?
If you insist on supporting a fascist regime you cannot complain about ad homs when you are called out as a fascist.
If you insist in employing ad hominems instead rational arguments, you cannot blame me for calling you out as an ignoramus who doesn't know what he is talking about.
[Please check & correct your user name in the next comment, thanks]
Mod note
Replace 'sole' with…'main'.
The Ukraine is fighting a valiant fight for the ….yankee dollar.
Pretty sure they are fighting for their continued independence but whatever. The point is they are fighting.
There are easier ways to get the Yankee Dollar. Still no idea why that should be any of Russia's business.
What are the easier ways…?
Maybe ask Hunter Biden.
Oooh yeah, that old chestnut. Bravo. So edge.
Oh right. Radio Free Europe. I could supply numerous Russian video interviews of very grateful Mariupol citizens rescued from Azov. Also eye wilness accounts of civilians being shot by Azov as they attempt to escape the city. Your Radio Free Europe anonymous accounts only serve to bolster propaganda. They are substantially funded by NED, an acknowledged arm of the CIA.
RFE has a fairly good reputation for the integrity of its material. Certainly they select stories that favour certain views, but they are not keen on publishing fabricated material – nor do they need to, as Russia is not at all averse to outraging world opinion.
Disagree with much of this article but wish to focus on a common western trope which I think is delusional , namely ,
" In the end, it will likely result in a military defeat for Russia and humiliation for Putin."
If Russia were to take their gloves off and engage in total war i.e total destruction of infrastructure , power , fuel , water , communications , sewerage , & food distribution which they can do at will with stand off missiles , and were they to change their R.O.E to disregard civilian casualties then how can any rational thinking adult believe that Ukraine is going to win this war ?