This turkey is struggling cooped up in a bubble

Written By: - Date published: 6:21 pm, September 29th, 2021 - 78 comments
Categories: covid-19, health, vaccines - Tags: ,

Kiwis rejoice and turkeys run! National has come up with a cunning plan of 10 bullet points, no less, to dish up Turkey-19 this Christmas. No doubt, the Government doesn’t want to be outdone and may throw in catered self-isolation at home for all those travellers who will flood NZ over the Christmas period. Paid out of the Taxpayers’ purse, of course, so that the Onion can do their ritual finger wagging moaning as well and try siphon off a more votes from National to ACT. The annual BBQ party at Judith’s will be something to behold when the masks come down.

But all fun and fantasy aside, I need to talk about a few truly inconvenient and unpleasant facts.

Today we added 45 new cases to the total and it is becoming a rather swollen infected tail. Experts are concerned that this may be the beginning of the much-feared ‘uptick’ after relaxing the Level 4 lockdown last week to Level 3. Level 3 is no longer considered a lockdown although it might as well be given that it doesn’t make one iota of difference for me and many others – is the KFC still tasting as good as it did last week? They had said that this might happen after about one week – don’t you hate it when their reckons become reality?

The other concern is that a dozen new cases were still unlinked to existing cases and clusters. Apparently, half a dozen of those were picked up during so-called surveillance testing, which means that it was unlikely that they would have gone to a testing station to take a test on their own accord. Let that sink in for a moment.

A dramatic rise in new cases seems to run counter to the relatively low testing numbers (ca. 8,000) in Auckland. Remember that these are the cases that we know about. Each day we also hear that a number of the news cases of the previous day had been infectious in the community. Why is this still happening?

Professor Baker has put his finger on the sore spot again yesterday when he expressed his concern that some of the new cases were picked up because they went to hospital or were arrested. The obvious response is that we should all admit ourselves to hospital or get arrested in order to get tested. Or maybe not.

I’m clinging on to a weakening glimmer of hope that we’re really on top of this outbreak and that we have things really under control. My last fingernail is tearing off my pinkie. The good thing is that 65.34% of the NZ population have received at least one vaccine shot and that 37.32% are now fully vaccinated; the numbers in the wider Auckland region are higher even.

Tomorrow, I’d like to see single digit new cases, but I’m likely dreaming.

Just liked to share this with you all here before I retreat back into my bubble of melancholy dreaming of a white Christmas with friends and family.

78 comments on “This turkey is struggling cooped up in a bubble ”

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  1. Cricklewood 1
    29 September 2021 at 6:53 pm

    Trying to find where I read it this avo but came across an article sayin 100 homes in South Auckland neighborhood been door knocked for targeted testing. Only 9 agreed if true thats scary.

  2. Andre 2
    29 September 2021 at 7:11 pm

    I'd like to hear what the government is planning to do to lift the first dose vaccination rate back up from the dismally low rate it has fallen to. We're down to under 1/5 the peak rate we achieved just over a month ago, and the 90% aspirational goal frequently tossed out is an awfully long way away at current rates let alone if it continues falling.

    https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300417126/covid19-nz-first-doses-drop-to-lowest-rate-since-july-government-still-consulting-on-vaccine-certificates

    Overseas it seems quite clear that “no jab, no job” policies boost vaccination rates very well.

    https://www.salon.com/2021/09/28/new-yorks-vaccine-mandate-for-health-care-workers-is-a-success-despite-media-doomsayer-predictions/

    "No jab, no entry" appears to be quite an incentive among other demographics.

    https://www.8newsnow.com/news/local-news/more-than-6000-people-received-their-first-dose-of-the-covid-19-vaccines-to-attend-the-raiders-game-at-allegiant-stadium/

    Endlessly burbling about kindness coupled with concerned hand-wringing about "exclusion" and "othering" has zero evidentiary record of success that I'm aware of.

    • Cricklewood 2.1
      29 September 2021 at 7:13 pm

      Maybe no jab no benefit, or no working for families, no accommodation supplement, no emergency accomodation, no medical care perhaps?

      No thanks.

      • Andre 2.1.1
        29 September 2021 at 7:16 pm

        I hadn't come up with those, but they're worthwhile additions to the ideas pot. Thanks for contributing.

    • Anne 2.2
      29 September 2021 at 9:57 pm

      Endlessly burbling about kindness coupled with concerned hand-wringing about "exclusion" and "othering" has zero evidentiary record of success that I'm aware of.

      Yes. That has been obvious for a while. The homeless and the gangs don't watch the 1pm show so the constant pleading to get vaccinated is having no effect whatsoever. Nor do they read newspapers or watch the news. The government is going to have to introduce penalties for those who won't follow the rules. And its got to happen now.

      I'm glad someone saw sense and finally agreed to reveal exactly where the Covid cases are coming from because the South Pacific community has been unfairly and harshly targeted in the past week or so.

      • Cricklewood 2.2.1
        29 September 2021 at 10:07 pm

        Ever wonder why they dont watch the 1pm bulletin or engage… ever wonder if punative measures will exacerbate the problem…

        Its like ic I just smack that naughty child a little bit harder they'll turn out to be upstanding citizens…

        Fucking boomers.

        • Anne 2.2.1.1
          29 September 2021 at 10:18 pm

          While no-one has offered any further enlightenment, I think it would be a reasonable assessment that some of them at least are likely drug addicts who don't live normal lives. Therefore there is probably a need for an element of compulsion. Nothing to do with boomers who might live in places where there are trees.

          You need to get that chip off your shoulder.

          • Cricklewood 2.2.1.1.1
            29 September 2021 at 10:25 pm

            Nah im good with it… I like how you blame drugs etc perhaps consider why people turn to escapism.

            Really dont want to consider the damage done to society by the 4th Labour govt and subsequent govts onwards and the rapidly worsening housing crisis, unequal justice and health systems have driven a wedge in society do you…

            Very well insulated in the peoples republic of Devonport…

    • alwyn 2.3
      30 September 2021 at 11:20 am

      Why did you expect them to do anything Andre?

      They got a fawning headline, which is probably all they hoped to achieve. After all , that is all that this incarnation of a Labour (led) Government seems to go for.

      Look at their other feats. Here are some examples.

      Kiwibuild! A hundred thousand houses was the promise.

      Dunedin Public Hospital. Construction would have started before the 2020 election.

      etc. etc. etc.

      Thigs that this Government proposes are only done to get praise from their true believers. That is the MSM. We can't really expect that they are going to actually accomplish anything you know. That is asking far too much.

      • Andre 2.3.1
        30 September 2021 at 12:23 pm

        Even if what's going on is simple inertia and bumbling kind intentions, I still prefer that to the competent malice that's the best we'd ever be getting from the other lot. And to be honest, Judthulhu's scattershot incompetent malice is such a poor joke I've more or less completely tuned her out. Along with the hologram.

    • Forget now 3.1
      29 September 2021 at 8:43 pm

      You missed out this bit:

      Half of those who declined a test had already been tested.

      It would have been nice to have more details about who were the health staff knocking on the doors, and what language they were speaking when they did so. My memories of Manukau (visiting in neighboring Ōtara) are over a decade old now, but not many there seemed inclined to cooperate with Pākehā authority figures.

      Demographics for Clover Park:

      Ethnicities were 14.9% European/Pākehā, 17.9% Māori, 56.4% Pacific peoples, 27.2% Asian, and 1.5% other ethnicities (totals add to more than 100% since people could identify with multiple ethnicities).

      The proportion of people born overseas was 40.5%, compared with 27.1% nationally.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clover_Park

      • Cricklewood 3.1.1
        29 September 2021 at 8:54 pm

        Yeah it's open ended… tested when? How many in the household everyone or just one, I'll bet tyey have next to no idea who and how many people are resident in a bunch of these houses… could easily be 7 or 8 perhaps 2 families but no one wants to say bexause perhaps they are violating their tenancy agreement etc Absolute best case that still leaves 41 households who refused.

        Be good to know who they sent as you say send the wrong people likely to get a poor result… but at the same time thats a helluva lot of people refusing to engage.

        • Forget now 3.1.1.1
          30 September 2021 at 7:03 am

          This is how to do it! At least for Tagata Samoa (I often get thrown by how much; fono sounds like whānau, but is closer to; hapu, or even iwi, in meaning), and other Pasifika. May not work so well for the Asian immigrant population, such as Pinoy menial workers, though I don't imagine there are too many Singaporean investment bankers in Clover Park. Is Indian (broad term that that is already!) included as Asian? They'd also need a different approach.

          The Ministry of Health is to focus testing on about 40 transitional housing facilities in Auckland, saying many people at this end of the outbreak have high needs and are living in emergency or temporary social housing

          Ninety percent of those visited by Masoe-Hundel and her team from The Fono Pacific health and social services provider in the past week fitted that bill.

          Many were being tested because a family member was already positive and were already self-isolating, sometimes in crowded conditions and unsure how to get food.

          "They've experienced hardship already but they're going through even tougher times. We're trying to support them as best we can," Masoe-Hundel said.

          Families were often worried when the testers came calling , like the young family with six children under 10 who feared being split up.

          "There is a lot of hesitation, there's a of reluctance there, because these people have heard stories from their friends or families of when there is a positive case in the family, that person is taken out to isolation," she said.

          "If the mother is removed from a house of 10, 15, what does that do to their household?"

          Another person, in an apartment building, was embarrassed to come down because the team had to do the test outside in full PPE and everyone could see them.

          https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/452596/covid-19-team-helps-auckland-families-frightened-of-being-tested

          Scientists may be meticulous and thorough in their door to door advances, but they are do not have the same skill-set as social workers embedded within a community. Trust is important to weaving a community together, yet so very fragile.

          • Incognito 3.1.1.1.1
            30 September 2021 at 9:57 am

            It is quite confusing that sometimes Indians are a separate group and sometimes they are included in the Asians group. There seems to be little consistency. Similar confusion can arise when talking about goals for vaccination of the population and not distinguishing between the whole total population and the eligible population for whom the vaccine(s) has been approved, i.e. 12+ at present.

  4. barry 4
    29 September 2021 at 8:01 pm

    How about fixing the housing crisis so that families are not squeezed together in transitional housing where isolation is impossible?

    How about jobs that pay the living wage, or benefits that people can live on so they can stay home and are not at the mercy of employers that will dock them pay if they are sick?

    It is a problem that covid has got into the communities that are not engaged and are not hearing the health messages. The people that don't have the options that you or I have. Why would they listen to the government when the government has only ever given them grief? Some are hiding from the authorities for fear of going to prison, losing their children, or being deported. they get more reliable information from drug dealers or Te Kahika.

    The fact that people are turning up to be tested at all is a minor miracle and people are to be congratulated.

    Solutions have to be community-driven and not based on fear. We can't punish people into complying with the measures needed to control the outbreak.

    If someone dressed in PPE knocks on the door and offers to test them the first inclination is to say "no". But if the people in the food bank, the employers, the religious leaders, the gang leaders (, even the drug dealers) are talking to them about testing and vaccination then there is more chance that they will comply.

    • Gezza 4.1
      30 September 2021 at 7:36 am

      “How about fixing the housing crisis so that families are not squeezed together in transitional housing where isolation is impossible?”
      …………………………..

      We’re still too short of construction workers in NZ, aren’t we? And aren’t building supplies still too blimmin expensive?

      Where’s the long overdue RMA reform at? (I’ll see what I can find out on that one – pretty sure Labour has introduced something into The House to try & move this along.)
      ………………………….

      “If someone dressed in PPE knocks on the door and offers to test them the first inclination is to say “no”. But if the people in the food bank, the employers, the religious leaders, the gang leaders (, even the drug dealers) are talking to them about testing and vaccination then there is more chance that they will comply.”
      …………………………

      I think you’re right, here. Māori whanau ALL have whanaungatanga connections to gang members, associates, including partners. I they’re not already doing this, Māori MPs should ALL be working their connections to hapu iwi & marae all round the motu, imo. Family should be envouraging gangs to get their people vaccinated asap.

      This includes Māori Party MPs. If they could maybe put a brake on the culture wars for now & double their energy into encouraging Māori to get their jabs that’d be good too. We’re all in this together!

      I must have a look at Māori TV today & see if they’re frequently advertising free jabs.

    • Treetop 4.2
      30 September 2021 at 8:42 am

      Re your last great paragraph, If someone dressed In PPE…

      I would ask whether more information or help is needed for a person to get a Covid test or vaccination? Those who feel unsupported or are fearful need support.

      And

      There is the possibility that people would not want their DNA tested. Assurance would need to be given that their DNA is only used for a Covid test.

      • Incognito 4.2.1
        30 September 2021 at 10:19 am

        Their DNA is not being tested! It is not even the virus DNA that is tested because it only has RNA and is an RNA virus.

        Here’s a good explainer that any human DNA from the person who is tested is destroyed during the test and therefore cannot be read/analysed.

        The swab sample will have lots of stuff in it, including mucus and human cells as well as viruses. The human cells are also made up of proteins, membrane, DNA, and RNA.

        That means we will need to get rid of the parts of the virus that we don’t need for the test (proteins and oily membrane) and everything else in the sample – the proteins, oily membranes and DNA from the mucus and human cells.

        …

        We chop up the proteins in the sample into bits using an enzyme called a protease, and we chop up the DNA in the sample into bits using an enzyme called a DNase.

        …

        To make sure we only detect the coronavirus RNA, and not the DNA or RNA of any other organism, we need to find a little bit of the coronavirus RNA sequence that is unique to the coronavirus, and is not shared by any other living thing.

        https://www.otago.ac.nz/biochemistry/research/otago736925.html

        Please help stop spreading this kind of misinformation about DNA being tested in Covid-19 test samples for PCR, thanks.

        • Treetop 4.2.1.1
          30 September 2021 at 7:59 pm

          It was not my intention to use misinformation about the DNA. A lot of people might not be aware that DNA is not used for a Covid PCR test.

          I did not know the difference between DNA and RNA when it comes to testing. Even though I know what a PCR test is and what DNA is.

          • Incognito 4.2.1.1.1
            30 September 2021 at 8:33 pm

            All good, but you can now help stop the spread of this misinformation.

            DNA is your genetic code or blueprint. It resides in the cell nucleus. DNA is double-stranded.

            When the DNA is being read in the cell, it is being transcribed or copied into RNA (mRNA to be precise). This process is called transcription. RNA is single stranded.

            The RNA (mRNA) leaves the cell nucleus inside the cell and enters the protein-making machinery (factory) in the cell’s cytoplasm to make specific proteins.

            mRNA is translated or copied into amino acids. This process is called translation.

            Amino acids are the building blocks of proteins.

            The Covid-19 virus is an RNA virus and does not have DNA.

            The Pfizer vaccine is an mRNA vaccine and does not enter the cell nucleus and is not incorporated into the cell DNA. It does get destroyed after a relatively short time, as happens to all mRNA, under normal circumstances.

            HTH

  5. DukeEll 5
    29 September 2021 at 8:05 pm

    Didn’t Prof Baker say it’s the gangs and rough sleepers the virus is embedded in and they’re the source of the mystery cases.

    unbelievable that these people wouldn’t abide but lockdown. also unbelievable that this governments inability deal with the housing crises, as it’s promised to since before the 2017 election, is helping keep New Zealand locked down.

  6. Cricklewood 6
    29 September 2021 at 8:10 pm

    Bang on Barry, it amuses me no end those that like to finger point etc from there comfy villas in the leafy suburbs probably chardonnay in hand…

    The other sectors that have it really tough over lockdown are all the 'contractors' and 'no fixed hours' which really should be employees, dont earn enough to save for a rainy day and only get the basic subsidy if they are lucky… Chorus contractors are a good example of the former comstruction labourers the latter and lets not forget about Farmers acting like POS employers Amazon (surf shop) as well…

    • Muttonbird 6.1
      29 September 2021 at 8:23 pm

      For sole traders there's been 3 Wage Subsidy payments (soon to be 4) of $1200 and 2 Resurgence Support payments of $1900.

      Over 8 weeks this amounts to $8600 for someone whose work has dropped by just 40%. What level of lifestyle does the average Chorus contractor need above that?

      Do they all have swimming pools or something?

      • Cricklewood 6.1.1
        29 September 2021 at 9:01 pm

        More than I thought ty but in Auckland… $1200 doesnt go far rent, h&s tools, vehicle finance easily makes a grand…

        The sole trader subs I use charge @ 65-80 an hour so before tax north of 2.5k a week and they're not rich just ordinary guys…

        • Muttonbird 6.1.1.1
          29 September 2021 at 9:47 pm

          😕 I'm an ordinary guy with a family of four in Auckland. I can get by temporarily on $1200/week.

          Who is the chardonnay drinker now?

          • Cricklewood 6.1.1.1.1
            29 September 2021 at 10:19 pm

            Prefer beer myself…

            Few of the subbies I know are fairly freshly set up pretty big loans involved for a truck 10-15k worth of tools insurances etc those costs dont stop add rent other expences its tough $1200 doeant go far barely covers costs… personally a nice mid level 4 suprise for me was notification of a $50 per week rent increase.

            Not withstanding contractors lets not forget casuals are getting absolutely shat on

  7. joe90 7
    29 September 2021 at 8:24 pm

    The housing shortage has become a public health catastrophe.

    https://twitter.com/Thoughtfulnz/status/1443007688787443713

    • Muttonbird 7.1
      29 September 2021 at 8:34 pm

      This pandemic is a disease of capitalism. It thrives in the profit driven model we live by.

      The great white hope of the free market might deliver some vaccine respite but the heart of the problem is the free market itself.

      • roblogic 7.1.1
        30 September 2021 at 9:53 am

        Delta finds the weakest links in a society and exposes it to the light. The dispossessed class in transitional housing that the media ignores and the govt wishes would just go away

    • Incognito 7.2
      30 September 2021 at 10:03 am

      The housing shortage has become a public health catastrophe.

      This is nothing new but Covid-19 has given all of us another wake-up call. Question is how many wake-up calls does it take before you sleep through the alarm, as National and ACT seem to be doing already? The Healthy Homes Guarantee Act 2017 was a good start but obviously much more needs to be done; it is a huge and complex problem.

      • DukeEll 7.2.1
        30 September 2021 at 10:56 am

        The 2017 election policy Kiwibuild, introduced in 2018, would have done a huge amount to help as well.

        • Jimmy 7.2.1.1
          30 September 2021 at 11:05 am

          You are a brave man mentioning Kiwibuild on this website.

          • Incognito 7.2.1.1.1
            30 September 2021 at 1:55 pm

            Why? DukeEll made a valid political point under my Post and that’s fine even though it was a little light on actual arguing it. You should try it too, one day; it would make you a better and more valued commenter here.

        • roblogic 7.2.1.2
          30 September 2021 at 11:20 am

          a lot is being done… but have a read of the wiki page on State Housing for an infuriating history of Labour trying to build houses and National continually selling them

        • Incognito 7.2.1.3
          30 September 2021 at 1:52 pm

          It has done some good, but obviously not nearly enough, as well all know full well. Building affordable housing in NZ is not as easy as it sounds, as well all know full well. Only dim-witted simpleton trolls would argue otherwise, as well all know full well.

          • DukeEll 7.2.1.3.1
            30 September 2021 at 2:02 pm

            Of course it is difficult and takes a multi pronged approach. My opinion is this is that this government has promised a lot but has failed on a lot of these promises and now the cumulative impact of those failed promises is starting to really really hurt those least able to do anything about it, while the wealthy get wealthier.

            • roblogic 7.2.1.3.1.1
              1 October 2021 at 2:14 pm

              Agree, they have been slow to act to control a runaway housing market, because of their neoliberal instincts. But some pretty decent reforms are happening now. Better late than never.

              Personally I would like to see all private land nationalised, and large portions returned to iwi, but what do I know.

              • DukeEll …
                1 October 2021 at 4:37 pm

                better late than never is correct. and the reforms are positive. It irks me greatly that so little thought was put into how to execute the slogans though. and now another generation must suffer for the sins of another government

          • Jimmy 7.2.1.3.2
            1 October 2021 at 9:41 am

            "Building affordable housing in NZ is not as easy as it sounds"

            You should have told Twyford that back in 2017 when he was in opposition as back then he seemed to have all the answers.

  8. Christopher Randal 8
    30 September 2021 at 8:31 am

    Hi I'm from the Government and I'm here to help you stay alive

    I'll just shove this stick up your nose and take a sample. It will hurt and it will take about three days to get a result to your mobile phone. No mobile phone? You'll have to ring Healthline to get the result, but you have to isolate until you get the result.

    Yes other countries have been using instant result tests (well 15 minute results) but NZ is a bit backward in even considering buying those.

    Given the above would you have a test????

    • Muttonbird 8.1
      30 September 2021 at 8:36 am

      "Other countries" have daily cases in the thousands, tens of thousands, and hundreds of thousands.

      Doesn't look like the tests they are using work too well.

      • Incognito 8.1.1
        30 September 2021 at 10:08 am

        Few countries actively follow an elimination strategy in which testing plays a different role altogether.

        • NZFemme 8.1.1.1
          30 September 2021 at 11:05 am

          Yes, that's very true of the UK for sure. I was testing with free NHS rapid antigen kits twice a week to self-monitor out of choice. (working with the public in a kitchen design studio, and in their homes when I was doing their survey/measures) You're not required to upload the test results to your NHS app, but you can if you want to. The point of the free tests was to catch a positive result early, and self isolate but the onus was on the individual to request the free kits and utilise the tests. The NHS rapid antigen tests have a good success rate for catching positive cases in the early stages of infection before symptoms arise, but aren't so good when people have symptoms (that may or may not be covid). At least, that's what the box leaflet and NHS website says.

    • KJT 8.2
      30 September 2021 at 8:45 am

      Had a dozen tests in two months.

      Not very comfortable but doesn’t really hurt.

      The longest time it took to get a result, was 15 hours, when delta got here and they were breaking records on the number of tests.

      • Cricklewood 8.2.1
        30 September 2021 at 11:00 am

        You were lucky I had one that took 6 days had to go again was the window was to long for the doctor to see me…

      • Jimmy 8.2.2
        1 October 2021 at 11:31 am

        I had a test at 4pm (my second test) and had the result back at 9am next morning. I think that's pretty damn good.

        The test makes my eyes water and is briefly uncomfortable but it wouldn't concern me getting one every week if needed.

    • roblogic 8.3
      30 September 2021 at 9:51 am

      If you have the flu or Covid-like symptoms it is basic civilised behaviour to stay home, not go out and spread it. So I had no problem getting a test and staying home when I had a case of the flu. It didn't hurt in the slightest, it's just a bit weird, and results came back about 24 hours later.

      Can't you handle a slight personal inconvenience in order to help your country deal with a crisis?

      • Maurice 8.3.1
        30 September 2021 at 9:59 am

        Just take Codral …. and carry on!

        Must be true – saw it on TV – Veronicasaurus said so!

      • Incognito 8.3.2
        30 September 2021 at 10:24 am

        True that, but not everyone is symptomatic and the Delta variant is a little more tricky in this way. Remember that many so-called ‘marginalised people’ don’t necessarily feel well like you and I do on a good day.

  9. tsmithfield 9
    30 September 2021 at 11:23 am

    According to Professor Baker, approximately 10000 people would be diagnosed as dying from the normal flu each year if deaths were correctly categorised (the same way that Covid deaths are categorised I believe).

    On that basis the country should be locked down to avoid normal flu.

    From the article:

    "It is estimated flu kills about 500 people a year in New Zealand, which is about two per cent of all deaths….However, he expected about only 1 in 20 flu deaths were recorded correctly, as some flu deaths present other symptoms, such as sudden heart attacks not long after having the virus.''

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/112942493/kiwis-underestimate-the-seriousness-of-the-flu-says-public-health-professor

    • Andre 9.1
      30 September 2021 at 1:01 pm

      Hmmm, so by those reckons the annual flu toll is around 10,000 a year? Roughly one quarter to one third of all deaths in NZ on average are due to the flu?

      Last year (and this year) we simply didn't have flu going around, so there should have been a massive signal in our excess mortality stats. But the negative excess mortality signal was really quite small. That dog didn't bark.

      So yeah, nah. Maybe something has been lost in translation, but the claim that only 1 in 20 flu deaths are recorded correctly fails the first sniff test.

      • tsmithfield 9.1.1
        30 September 2021 at 1:21 pm

        Well this is the guy who is interviewed ad-nauseum by the media so he must be right.

        I don't disagree with the first lockdown. But if the figures are correct then there seems to be little justification for ongoing lockdowns.

        Also, those who tend to die from the flu (the elderly) might not have much life left in them anyway. So, they might not die of the flu, but something else soon after.

        So, there may not be much difference in mortality figures even without the flu.

        • Andre 9.1.1.1
          30 September 2021 at 1:31 pm

          I don't see how some random brainfart about the flu from 2019, no matter how distinguished the epidemiologist that emitted it, has any relevance whatsoever to the questions of whether lockdowns over covid are justified.

          Covid is a much more dangerous disease than flu. We have credible reports from all around the world testifying to that. And on a personal level, I have a nephew still suffering long covid from his case in March 2020, as well as a cousin and her husband that are hospital doctors in the US that keep having to dig deep into psychological and physical reserves they didn't think they had to keep caring for covid patients. Flu doesn't do that.

          • tsmithfield 9.1.1.1.1
            30 September 2021 at 2:09 pm

            But our vaccination rate for Covid is already many times greater than our vaccination rate for the common flu. I think we should absolutely be aiming for as close to 100% vaccination as possible which will at least minimise the symptoms for most who get the disease despite being vaccinated.

            Given that the vaccination rates are much lower for the common flu, it could well be that common flu becomes a more serious disease than Covid given that the vaccination rates for common flu are a lot lower.

          • tsmithfield 9.1.1.1.2
            30 September 2021 at 3:05 pm

            Also, out of the 1200 or so cases thus far, there has only been one death, and not many hospitalisations.

            So, do we really need lockdowns?

            • Andre 9.1.1.1.2.1
              30 September 2021 at 3:34 pm

              So, do we really need lockdowns?

              At our current level of vaccination, that depends on what level of flow-on consequences one is prepared to accept.

              At 85%-ish of over 12s vaccinated (72ish% of total population), even with level 1 measures in place, it's very likely the outbreak would grow very rapidly and our health system would be overwhelmed. That's simply because the transmissibility of Delta is very high, and even though the vaccine real effectiveness is very high, it's not quite high enough to snuff out Delta on its own. Even level 2+ measures are very unlikely to keep much of a lid on outbreaks for very long.

              Then when the medical system gets overwhelmed, deaths go up rapidly, including deaths for causes other than covid (because patients get a reduced standard of care).

              Personally, I've got serious doubts we'll get much over around 85% eligibles vaccinated without resorting to comprehensive "no jab, no job" and "no vax, no entry" policies, and I find the idea of ongoing lockdowns to pander to antisocial unvaxed idiots quite fkn unpalatable.

              So if I were made dictator to deal with it, I'd put up tents in the far corner of hospital parking lots as unvaccinated covid patient wards, and issue instructions that unvaccinated covid patients are first on the list to be triaged out to the tents when the medical system gets overloaded. It's a fkn brutal calculus, but an awful lot of suffering and death is indeed the likely price of removing lockdowns in the current state of vaccination coverage and effectiveness. I'd want to protect our medical staff from the worst of having to deal with it.

              Since that brutal price would be mostly paid by those that refuse vaccination because they haZ rEazoNz, it's a tradeoff I could live with. Now excuse me for a few moments while I go put my fireproof undies on for the flames coming my way for saying that.

        • DukeEll 9.1.1.2
          30 September 2021 at 6:31 pm

          What is the mortality rate from delta covid?

    • barry 9.2
      30 September 2021 at 4:45 pm

      Are you stupid or is the obtuseness deliberate. He is saying that only 1 in 20 of the 500 deaths are recorded as from influenza.

  10. Riff.s 10
    30 September 2021 at 11:56 am

    I share the op's faint hope that this outbreak can be contained but reality is what it is. Given at least 10% of people are blaise about covid we needed a lot of luck as soon as case numbers went up over 50 a day. Luck has not been with us.

    NZ was exceptional in 2020, we will not be exceptional in 2022. Case numbers will rise remorselessly from here. Our health system will be strained and our social cohesion tested. Let's hope our vaccination rates are sufficient to keep deaths below 10 a day.

    By spring 2022 most of us will have had covid and it will remain a part of the rest of our lives. I wish you all good health for what is to come.

    • Tricledrown 10.1
      30 September 2021 at 2:40 pm

      Riffs most of us won't have had covid as vaccine reduces the numbers significantly.

      Why make such a generalisation.

      If we can vaccinate 5 to 12 yr olds before covid becomes endemic we could keep covid free. Given all those who arrive in NZ will need double vaccination and a clear test and hopefully a border test as well.

    • Patricia Bremner 10.2
      30 September 2021 at 4:12 pm

      We were exceptional the first time because it was the Wuhan strain, this is Delta!! A longer tail and far more infectious.

      Notice that people had been in contact with cases but often did not get it if they were wearing masks social distancing and vaccinated. The families with a case had it go through everyone like a brush fire.

      Bloomfield explained that the cycle with this is shorter in transmission, but that it can infect people rolling through families over 20 days. This makes it very hard on those with large families. Family is all they often have. and they are fearful of being split up.
      Lockdowns work if the rules are followed.
      Undermining the process is counterproductive.
      Stay positive Incognito, we found zooming/skyping a friend to share a glass of wine and chatting helps to lighten the spirits.

  11. Riff.s 11
    30 September 2021 at 7:12 pm

    I'm not optimistic that high vacination rates will prevent covid becoming endemic due to the emerging evidence that the effectiveness of vaccines against mild disease wanes after relatively few months.

    vaccine-protection-wanes-within-six-months-of-second-covid-shot-study-warns.

    COVID vaccines protect against Delta, but their effectiveness wanes

    It might take longer than a year but covid will spread through the NZ population.

    That said, for most people and almost all vacinated people, the infection will be mild and provide a free boost to our immunity.

  12. RP Mcmurphy 12
    2 October 2021 at 10:47 pm

    nationals are appealing to the infantile and mawkish sentimentalists with their promises of a good 10c cigar and a turkey in every pot. next it will be 10 acres and a mule