Two ticks red

Written By: - Date published: 7:33 am, September 22nd, 2017 - 25 comments
Categories: bill english, greens, jacinda ardern, john key, labour, national, same old national, youtube - Tags:

R0b and Bill have declared their political preferences, R0b going with Labour and Bill with the Greens, two ticks both times.

I thought I should do the same.

I will not surprise anyone by saying that I am ticking red both times.

Why?

Well electorate wise it was really easy. Deborah Russell will be a significant addition to the Labour caucus and her skills will be well used. If you are going to run the country you need people who can do the job.

Her main opponent, Pablo Garcia, is an unusual candidate with some strange views. He is also a lightweight and would contribute nothing to our Parliament. The Greens candidate Leilani Tamu is someone who has some great talents and abilities and someone I have a great amount of respect for but her job is to win party votes not the seat.

My party vote was more difficult and I avoided the temptation to vote early.

When I do one of those “which party most closely matches your world view” tests I get told that Green or sometimes Mana are the parties that most closely match my preferred policies.

Climate change is the most important issue the human race is facing. And the environment is our most important asset. These should be at the forefront of our politics.

And the Greens’ position on these areas is strong and principled.

So I gave serious thought to voting Green.

There were two scenarios where I thought that I would vote Green:

  1. They were in danger of not meeting the 5% threshold.
  2. Labour was well ahead of National but New Zealand First was going to have a considerable presence.

As to 1 it appears that the Green vote has rallied and they are safe.

And New Zealand First is wilting. I am not surprised. Winston Peters is showing that he no longer has his former drawing power. One benefit is that it appears that Shane Jones will not make it.

But my tribal preference holds strong sway and I have deep respect for the Kaupapa of the Labour Party.  So it is tick red.

Because of its commitment to the trade union movement and to improving the plight of ordinary Kiwis. The emphasis on education so that all kids can achieve their potential. The acknowledgment of the importance of Maori and the Treaty, the historic partnership between Micky Savage and the Ratana Church being a strong and lasting partnership.

The commitment to multiculturalism and the celebration of diversity. This is something that National has done recently when it realised there were political benefits in doing so but this has been a core belief of Labour’s for a long time.

The independent world view. I find it so upsetting when our Government obsequiously follows America or England into insane wars or in support of idiot positions. I cheered loudly when David Lange declared New Zealand nuclear free and stood up and proclaimed how this was the right and moral thing to do.

And there is some serious talent in Labour’s list. Right now Labour may get some really great people into Parliament. People such as Liz Craig, Anahila Kanongata’a Suisuiki, Lemauga Lydia Sosene and on a good night Romy Udanga. Every party vote Labour gets improves their prospects of being elected.

And to complete the analysis could I vote National? They are not as bad as they were in the past, the 1970s and 1980s version was a redneck conservative coalition of anti progressives. The 1990s version was a cruel ideological blinkered version that almost wrecked our country and we are still paying the price now.

The John Key-Bill English version perfected the ability to sound reasonable and pretend they were Labour lite. They still did the ideological stuff, the selling of our power shares being one of their most stupid decisions.

But they are a pale imitation of past versions. And their cost accounting approach to running something as complex as a country and their complete indifference to human misery unless it is showing up in the opinion polls when it is then met with the weakest of incremental responses means they have to be voted out.

And their style is very undemocratic.  Their abuse of the Official Information laws and their micro managing the flow of information for political advantage are particular features that mean they should not be trusted with Government.

And I think Jacinda is extraordinary. She could be right up there with Norm Kirk, David Lange, Helen Clark and yes even Micky Savage if she gets the chance.

So two ticks red. But I will be cheering the Greens on and hope they are returned in numbers.

25 comments on “Two ticks red ”

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  1. cleangreen 1
    22 September 2017 at 7:45 am

    Yes for my wife and I we will give one tick each for our Napier MP Stuart Nash.

  2. roy cartland 2
    22 September 2017 at 8:25 am

    Nice one MS. There is a real chance to get the LP values of old back with Jacinda. Inclusivity, fairness-justice-equality and respect for each other and the environment.

    Labour this time has been given that sacred mandate by all LP voters, and they know their feet will be held to the fire should they be bullied into wavering. It’s obvious a lot of trust has gone into this vote and I believe Jacinda won’t abuse it.

    Kia kaha!

  3. Ad 3
    22 September 2017 at 8:27 am

    It will be good to have the Greens back : Labour needs them as their policy unit.

    Not sure about Deborah. Too green and no clue about Parliamentary or party process., no idea about local constituency issues. Cunliffe left her with a 4,500 majority so maybe she can afford to lose a few.

    • Andre 3.1
      22 September 2017 at 8:58 am

      Timmy was a somewhat stronger opponent than Paulo, which will help Deborah.

    • swordfish 3.2
      22 September 2017 at 12:26 pm

      Yes – While I wouldn’t want to deny Russell’s exceptional talents expertise and competence … she would’ve been more appropriate as a List MP.

      Greg = highly popular local community leader … spent his entire life in the area, has a nuanced understanding and extensive network of contacts within the seat, and has proven electorally popular with local constituents time and time again

      Deborah = affluent academic outsider (and former Young Nat) parachuted into a largely working class Westie seat 400kms to the North (& at remarkably short notice) Doesn’t know the local political ground

  5. Dot 5
    22 September 2017 at 9:15 am

    Yes fairness and justice for Aotearoa ! we need more Mickey Savage’s

  6. ianmac 6
    22 September 2017 at 9:59 am

    If NZF don’t make the threshold or win Winston’s seat, how would that effect the outcome? (My votes are two ticks red for similar reasons as Micky’s.)

    • DoublePlusGood 6.1
      22 September 2017 at 10:08 am

      That vote would get redistributed. It would push both Labour + Greens and National + ACT close to the 61 seats needed. It would potentially come down to who the Māori party want to support. It could even be a hung parliament, forcing either a new election or some sort of grand coalition.

    • Andre 6.2
      22 September 2017 at 10:09 am

      If NZ1st don’t make, then everybody else that does make it gets a stronger position.

      Depending on exactly how the votes fall, Nats may go from needing an agreement to being able to govern alone, or Greens/Labour may go from needing Winnie to being able to govern alone, or the Maori Party may go from being an afterthought to kingmakers.

  7. DoublePlusGood 7
    22 September 2017 at 10:03 am

    All these people really hoping the Greens get back in, in numbers, and then not voting for them. Uh-huh. Has me well worried if half the lefties on the biggest lefty blog are all voting for the centrist diet-neoliberalsm party.

    • Bill 7.1
      22 September 2017 at 10:36 am

      I agree with your take on the hope versus vote schism.

      But to be fair, when either r0b or micky throw a vote anywhere bar NZ Labour, I think we can say the death of NZ Labour, that’s being anticipated by some ( me included) can be said to be at the stage of death rattle.

      As for “half” the lefties on this blog voting NZ Labour, I’m picking it’s nowhere near that proportion.

      Lynn also wrote a post stating he’d voted Green. And he’s pretty conservative on the whole. I suspect Weka will be voting Green.

      And I get the impression from comments that a far greater number of commenters are voting Green that was the case last election

      • Ad 7.1.1
        22 September 2017 at 2:00 pm

        “Death rattle” when Labour’s at 37% and Greens are at 7%.
        Top work there Death.

        NZ is the only place Greens might even possibly get in central government anywhere in the world.

        • Bill 7.1.1.1
          22 September 2017 at 2:03 pm

          What the fuck are you on about Ad?

          Are micky and r0b not voting NZ Labour? Why, yes they are. So your comment is bloody stupid innit?

          • Ad 7.1.1.1.1
            22 September 2017 at 2:17 pm

            What is stupid is saying Labour is “at the stage of a death rattle”.

            Wish for it all you like. Not happening.

            • Craig H 7.1.1.1.1.1
              22 September 2017 at 4:25 pm

              Bill didn’t say that Labour was in a death rattle, he said that it will be a death rattle when mickey or r0b vote for someone other than Labour.

        • marty mars 7.1.1.2
          22 September 2017 at 2:17 pm

          it might be a baby rattle I think – as the renewal occurs, a new day, fresh with anticipation, the new growth and hope is like a wee baby coming forth and in their hand is a wee rattle rattling away like the loudest beacon of hope for the oppressed and downtrodden.

  8. popexplosion 8
    22 September 2017 at 12:12 pm

    I voted Green. Govt taxes us all, water taxes aren’t a tax, they are a levy. There are public taxes, and private taxes, levied by govt. Current water policies are a private tax on those who don’t need irrigation water. So we have this socialism farmers union arguing to keep their private taxes rewarding big water takers, and begging farmer who won’t pay one cent more, who will in fact gain better competitive advantage in the market when not competing with big water takers. So I voted Green, the fake media and it’s fake national economy of low tax. Not being able to swim in the river, polluted or low flow, is a private govt legislated tax on everyone.

  9. Craig H 9
    22 September 2017 at 12:21 pm

    Two ticks for Labour in our household!

  10. tracey 10
    22 September 2017 at 12:45 pm

    Kia ora MS. We are all in this together.

    Kia kaha whatever happens tomoz

  11. swordfish 11
    22 September 2017 at 2:11 pm

    Micky

    When I do one of those “which party most closely matches your world view” tests I get told that Green or sometimes Mana are the parties that most closely match my preferred policies

    Ha ! same here … and yet I’ve still Party-Voted Labour at the last 2 Elections … Go figure

    Now leaning heavily toward Party-Voting for our ethereal Greenie chums on Saturday

    Which allows me to smoothly segue …

    Micky

    It appears that the Green vote has rallied and they are safe

    .

    While in broad terms the Greens are trending up (as you & Pat have argued) … I’d suggest things are still pretty precarious … odds (at best) mildly in Greens favour but they’re by no means out of the woods yet

    They’re usually over-stated by 1-4 percentage points in final polls

    Eg Final Reid Research

    2014 14.4 (over-states by 3.7)

    2011 13.4 (over-states by 2.34)

    2008 9 (over-states by 2.28)

    Final RR 2017 … 7.1% … Try subtracting 2.3-3.7 points and see how far it gets you = not quite as rosy as one might initially assume

    Too many Lefties taking Green polling at face value

    So subtract 1-4 points from the following

    Greens %
    Last 7 Polls

    UMR 7
    Curia 6
    RR 7.1
    CB 8
    CB 7
    RR 4.9
    RM 9

    • Pat 11.1
      22 September 2017 at 2:30 pm

      have a lot of time for your opinion swordfish and am still likely to give my vote to greens tomorrow but I am increasingly confident that the polls are well off and our next Gov will be Lab/Green…and hopefully no need for additions

      https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/09/22/49399/there-may-have-been-a-youth-quake

      and after that event I pray the goodwill required to make the partnership successful prevails

    • Zeroque 11.2
      22 September 2017 at 2:39 pm

      It would be interesting to see historic data like this for NZF. I keep hearing that they have typically polled lower than their final vote tally but I haven’t seen any numbers by election.

      • swordfish 11.2.1
        22 September 2017 at 3:17 pm

        2014

        Final CB under-states NZF by 0.7 percentage points
        Final RR under-states NZF by 1.6 percentage points
        Final RM under-states NZF by 0.7 percentage points
        Final UMR under-states NZF by 1.2 percentage points

        2nd last CB under-states NZF by 1.7 percentage points
        2nd last RR under-states NZF by 2.8 percentage points

        2011

        Final CB under-states NZF by 2.4 percentage points
        Final RR under-states NZF by 3.5 percentage points
        Final RM under-states NZF by 0.1 percentage points

        2nd last CB under-states NZF by 4.4 percentage points
        2nd last RR under-states NZF by 3.1 percentage points

        2008

        Final CB under-states NZF by 1.7 percentage points
        Final RR under-states NZF by 0.7 percentage points
        Final RM over-states NZF by 0.4 percentage points
        Final UMR under-states NZF by 1.3 percentage points

        2nd last CB under-states NZF by 1.1 percentage points
        2nd last RR under-states NZF by 0.6 percentage points

  12. Tanz 12
    22 September 2017 at 4:13 pm

    Labour needs another leader like David Lange, who by and far was the best PM we ever had. No one of such integrity these days, on either side.