Two ticks red
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7:33 am, September 22nd, 2017 - 25 comments
Categories: bill english, greens, jacinda ardern, john key, labour, national, same old national, youtube -
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R0b and Bill have declared their political preferences, R0b going with Labour and Bill with the Greens, two ticks both times.
I thought I should do the same.
I will not surprise anyone by saying that I am ticking red both times.
Why?
Well electorate wise it was really easy. Deborah Russell will be a significant addition to the Labour caucus and her skills will be well used. If you are going to run the country you need people who can do the job.
Her main opponent, Pablo Garcia, is an unusual candidate with some strange views. He is also a lightweight and would contribute nothing to our Parliament. The Greens candidate Leilani Tamu is someone who has some great talents and abilities and someone I have a great amount of respect for but her job is to win party votes not the seat.
My party vote was more difficult and I avoided the temptation to vote early.
When I do one of those “which party most closely matches your world view” tests I get told that Green or sometimes Mana are the parties that most closely match my preferred policies.
Climate change is the most important issue the human race is facing. And the environment is our most important asset. These should be at the forefront of our politics.
And the Greens’ position on these areas is strong and principled.
So I gave serious thought to voting Green.
There were two scenarios where I thought that I would vote Green:
- They were in danger of not meeting the 5% threshold.
- Labour was well ahead of National but New Zealand First was going to have a considerable presence.
As to 1 it appears that the Green vote has rallied and they are safe.
And New Zealand First is wilting. I am not surprised. Winston Peters is showing that he no longer has his former drawing power. One benefit is that it appears that Shane Jones will not make it.
But my tribal preference holds strong sway and I have deep respect for the Kaupapa of the Labour Party. So it is tick red.
Because of its commitment to the trade union movement and to improving the plight of ordinary Kiwis. The emphasis on education so that all kids can achieve their potential. The acknowledgment of the importance of Maori and the Treaty, the historic partnership between Micky Savage and the Ratana Church being a strong and lasting partnership.
The commitment to multiculturalism and the celebration of diversity. This is something that National has done recently when it realised there were political benefits in doing so but this has been a core belief of Labour’s for a long time.
The independent world view. I find it so upsetting when our Government obsequiously follows America or England into insane wars or in support of idiot positions. I cheered loudly when David Lange declared New Zealand nuclear free and stood up and proclaimed how this was the right and moral thing to do.
And there is some serious talent in Labour’s list. Right now Labour may get some really great people into Parliament. People such as Liz Craig, Anahila Kanongata’a Suisuiki, Lemauga Lydia Sosene and on a good night Romy Udanga. Every party vote Labour gets improves their prospects of being elected.
And to complete the analysis could I vote National? They are not as bad as they were in the past, the 1970s and 1980s version was a redneck conservative coalition of anti progressives. The 1990s version was a cruel ideological blinkered version that almost wrecked our country and we are still paying the price now.
The John Key-Bill English version perfected the ability to sound reasonable and pretend they were Labour lite. They still did the ideological stuff, the selling of our power shares being one of their most stupid decisions.
But they are a pale imitation of past versions. And their cost accounting approach to running something as complex as a country and their complete indifference to human misery unless it is showing up in the opinion polls when it is then met with the weakest of incremental responses means they have to be voted out.
And their style is very undemocratic. Their abuse of the Official Information laws and their micro managing the flow of information for political advantage are particular features that mean they should not be trusted with Government.
And I think Jacinda is extraordinary. She could be right up there with Norm Kirk, David Lange, Helen Clark and yes even Micky Savage if she gets the chance.
So two ticks red. But I will be cheering the Greens on and hope they are returned in numbers.
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Kua hinga te manawa kairākau o Te Rua Tekau Ma Waru Tiwhatiwha te po! Kakarauru i te po! Ka rapuhia kei hea koe kua riro! Haere e te Ika a Whiro ki o tini hoa kua ngaro atu ki te Pō ...2 weeks ago
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Yes for my wife and I we will give one tick each for our Napier MP Stuart Nash.
Nice one MS. There is a real chance to get the LP values of old back with Jacinda. Inclusivity, fairness-justice-equality and respect for each other and the environment.
Labour this time has been given that sacred mandate by all LP voters, and they know their feet will be held to the fire should they be bullied into wavering. It’s obvious a lot of trust has gone into this vote and I believe Jacinda won’t abuse it.
Kia kaha!
It will be good to have the Greens back : Labour needs them as their policy unit.
Not sure about Deborah. Too green and no clue about Parliamentary or party process., no idea about local constituency issues. Cunliffe left her with a 4,500 majority so maybe she can afford to lose a few.
Timmy was a somewhat stronger opponent than Paulo, which will help Deborah.
Yes – While I wouldn’t want to deny Russell’s exceptional talents expertise and competence … she would’ve been more appropriate as a List MP.
Greg = highly popular local community leader … spent his entire life in the area, has a nuanced understanding and extensive network of contacts within the seat, and has proven electorally popular with local constituents time and time again
Deborah = affluent academic outsider (and former Young Nat) parachuted into a largely working class Westie seat 400kms to the North (& at remarkably short notice) Doesn’t know the local political ground
Onya ms
Yes fairness and justice for Aotearoa ! we need more Mickey Savage’s
If NZF don’t make the threshold or win Winston’s seat, how would that effect the outcome? (My votes are two ticks red for similar reasons as Micky’s.)
That vote would get redistributed. It would push both Labour + Greens and National + ACT close to the 61 seats needed. It would potentially come down to who the Māori party want to support. It could even be a hung parliament, forcing either a new election or some sort of grand coalition.
If NZ1st don’t make, then everybody else that does make it gets a stronger position.
Depending on exactly how the votes fall, Nats may go from needing an agreement to being able to govern alone, or Greens/Labour may go from needing Winnie to being able to govern alone, or the Maori Party may go from being an afterthought to kingmakers.
All these people really hoping the Greens get back in, in numbers, and then not voting for them. Uh-huh. Has me well worried if half the lefties on the biggest lefty blog are all voting for the centrist diet-neoliberalsm party.
I agree with your take on the hope versus vote schism.
But to be fair, when either r0b or micky throw a vote anywhere bar NZ Labour, I think we can say the death of NZ Labour, that’s being anticipated by some ( me included) can be said to be at the stage of death rattle.
As for “half” the lefties on this blog voting NZ Labour, I’m picking it’s nowhere near that proportion.
Lynn also wrote a post stating he’d voted Green. And he’s pretty conservative on the whole. I suspect Weka will be voting Green.
And I get the impression from comments that a far greater number of commenters are voting Green that was the case last election
“Death rattle” when Labour’s at 37% and Greens are at 7%.
Top work there Death.
NZ is the only place Greens might even possibly get in central government anywhere in the world.
What the fuck are you on about Ad?
Are micky and r0b not voting NZ Labour? Why, yes they are. So your comment is bloody stupid innit?
What is stupid is saying Labour is “at the stage of a death rattle”.
Wish for it all you like. Not happening.
Bill didn’t say that Labour was in a death rattle, he said that it will be a death rattle when mickey or r0b vote for someone other than Labour.
it might be a baby rattle I think – as the renewal occurs, a new day, fresh with anticipation, the new growth and hope is like a wee baby coming forth and in their hand is a wee rattle rattling away like the loudest beacon of hope for the oppressed and downtrodden.
I voted Green. Govt taxes us all, water taxes aren’t a tax, they are a levy. There are public taxes, and private taxes, levied by govt. Current water policies are a private tax on those who don’t need irrigation water. So we have this socialism farmers union arguing to keep their private taxes rewarding big water takers, and begging farmer who won’t pay one cent more, who will in fact gain better competitive advantage in the market when not competing with big water takers. So I voted Green, the fake media and it’s fake national economy of low tax. Not being able to swim in the river, polluted or low flow, is a private govt legislated tax on everyone.
Two ticks for Labour in our household!
Kia ora MS. We are all in this together.
Kia kaha whatever happens tomoz
Micky
Ha ! same here … and yet I’ve still Party-Voted Labour at the last 2 Elections … Go figure
Now leaning heavily toward Party-Voting for our ethereal Greenie chums on Saturday
Which allows me to smoothly segue …
Micky
.
While in broad terms the Greens are trending up (as you & Pat have argued) … I’d suggest things are still pretty precarious … odds (at best) mildly in Greens favour but they’re by no means out of the woods yet
They’re usually over-stated by 1-4 percentage points in final polls
Eg Final Reid Research
2014 14.4 (over-states by 3.7)
2011 13.4 (over-states by 2.34)
2008 9 (over-states by 2.28)
Final RR 2017 … 7.1% … Try subtracting 2.3-3.7 points and see how far it gets you = not quite as rosy as one might initially assume
Too many Lefties taking Green polling at face value
So subtract 1-4 points from the following
Greens %
Last 7 Polls
UMR 7
Curia 6
RR 7.1
CB 8
CB 7
RR 4.9
RM 9
have a lot of time for your opinion swordfish and am still likely to give my vote to greens tomorrow but I am increasingly confident that the polls are well off and our next Gov will be Lab/Green…and hopefully no need for additions
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/09/22/49399/there-may-have-been-a-youth-quake
and after that event I pray the goodwill required to make the partnership successful prevails
It would be interesting to see historic data like this for NZF. I keep hearing that they have typically polled lower than their final vote tally but I haven’t seen any numbers by election.
2014
Final CB under-states NZF by 0.7 percentage points
Final RR under-states NZF by 1.6 percentage points
Final RM under-states NZF by 0.7 percentage points
Final UMR under-states NZF by 1.2 percentage points
2nd last CB under-states NZF by 1.7 percentage points
2nd last RR under-states NZF by 2.8 percentage points
2011
Final CB under-states NZF by 2.4 percentage points
Final RR under-states NZF by 3.5 percentage points
Final RM under-states NZF by 0.1 percentage points
2nd last CB under-states NZF by 4.4 percentage points
2nd last RR under-states NZF by 3.1 percentage points
2008
Final CB under-states NZF by 1.7 percentage points
Final RR under-states NZF by 0.7 percentage points
Final RM over-states NZF by 0.4 percentage points
Final UMR under-states NZF by 1.3 percentage points
2nd last CB under-states NZF by 1.1 percentage points
2nd last RR under-states NZF by 0.6 percentage points
Labour needs another leader like David Lange, who by and far was the best PM we ever had. No one of such integrity these days, on either side.