What if climate collapse comes much sooner than we expected?
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6:07 am, April 8th, 2024 - 91 comments
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As a gardener, I’ve noticed one of the features of this summer’s El Nino pattern has been the greater than normal differences between daytime highs and nighttime lows. I came across a comment on social media a while back saying that a bigger than normal variation in temperature across 24 hours can damage plants. Googling just now to see the science on that, I didn’t find much because most of the hits were about how much plants depend on temperature change within certain ranges simply to function.
It seems prudent to consider that in addition to extreme weather events, climate change may be pushing local temperatures outside the norm of what makes food growing possible, even in temperate climates like New Zealand. We know that mono-cropped industrial grains and legumes are already at risk of failing significantly enough to cause widespread hunger and starvation as well as price spikes, civil unrest and war. Under the circumstances, it stands to reason, or the precautionary principle, to protect food growing with everything we’ve got. There is no future of magic domes and hydroponics if the global economy crashes fast or the countries with the biggest stick start invading stable growing climates for food resources. Or we become so overwhelmed with climate events that we can’t keep up economically, or simply repairing or recovering from the damage done.
The other feature of the past year has been the number of posts and articles I see where climate scientists are saying ‘ok, we didn’t really expect that…’
The Guardian reported on the weekend about what is happening in Antarctica,
In 18 March, 2022, scientists at the Concordia research station on the east Antarctic plateau documented a remarkable event. They recorded the largest jump in temperature ever measured at a meteorological centre on Earth. According to their instruments, the region that day experienced a rise of 38.5C above its seasonal average: a world record.
This startling leap – in the coldest place on the planet – left polar researchers struggling for words to describe it. “It is simply mind-boggling,” said Prof Michael Meredith, science leader at the British Antarctic Survey. “In sub-zero temperatures such a massive leap is tolerable but if we had a 40C rise in the UK now that would take temperatures for a spring day to over 50C – and that would be deadly for the population.”
This amazement was shared by glaciologist Prof Martin Siegert, of the University of Exeter. “No one in our community thought that anything like this could ever happen. It is extraordinary and a real concern,” he told the Observer. “We are now having to wrestle with something that is completely unprecedented.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/06/simply-mind-boggling-world-record-temperature-jump-in-antarctic-raises-fears-of-catastrophe
The article goes on to explain what that means now,
These events have raised fears that the Antarctic, once thought to be too cold to experience the early impacts of global warming, is now succumbing dramatically and rapidly to the swelling levels of greenhouse gases that humans continue to pump into the atmosphere.
These dangers were highlighted by a team of scientists, led by Will Hobbs of the University of Tasmania, in a paper that was published last week in the Journal of Climate. After examining recent changes in sea ice coverage in Antarctica, the group concluded there had been an “abrupt critical transition” in the continent’s climate that could have repercussions for both local Antarctic ecosystems and the global climate system.
“The extreme lows in Antarctic sea ice have led researchers to suggest that a regime shift is under way in the Southern Ocean, and we found multiple lines of evidence that support such a shift to a new sea ice state,” said Hobbs
What does this mean? Worst case scenario is if the whole of Antarctica melts we would have an average 60m sea level rise across the planet. In New Zealand that’s every coastal city and town needing to be relocated, plus airports, ports, and most of the main trunk line and much of State Highway 1 in the South Island.
Full pole melt isn’t going to happen in the human scale short or medium term. Data has historically been difficult to collect from Antarctica, but the current predictions from the IPCC seem woefully inadequate (.3 – 1.1m overall by the end of the century). Instead there is the suggestion of 5m as the Western ice sheets and glaciers melt completely. That’s based on what scientists know in 2024, not what is actually going to happen if shit keeps getting weirder year by year. But this is what people mean when they talk about runaway climate change. It’s the point where the unpredictable becomes common and causes more unpredictability and feeds back into itself. Precautionary principle applies again, we really don’t want to go there.
The melting of west Antarctica appears locked in even with rapid transition to low carbon. When I looked online I couldn’t find timelines for its collapse that took the evolving unpredictability into account and/or us doing what we are doing now which is failing to drop GHGs fast.
Five metres in New Zealand is significant for many places, including rail/roading/airport infrastructure. Invercargill, Dunedin, Napier, Wellington, Auckland airports are gone. Big chunks of Christchurch’s eastern suburbs and the northern coastal towns are underwater. South Dunedin. Whole suburbs in Wellington’s low lying land. So many areas of Auckland’s long sea edge.
You can have a play online to see how where you live will fare. Bear in mind not just your house, but transport routes, industry, supply lines.
It’s not just sea level rise, it’s storm surges, drought/flood cycles, cyclones and slips. Again, this is what is already locked in. What happens if we don’t lower GHGs fast is much worse.
Also in the Guardian piece is the problem of Antarctica warming causing mass algae death. Once the algae start dying, that’s not only the whole ocean food chain undercut (including our own sources of fish), but also the role algae plays in the carbon cycle. Short version: if enough algae die, global warming will increase faster. Algae are also critical in earth’s oxygen supply.
All of that is still able to be mitigated: we can limit the damage by dropping fossil fuel and other emissions fast, mass restoration of ecosystems including forests (not forestry), and shifting to regenerative not extractive/polluting economies. West Antarctica is locked in, but how fast that happens is still something we can affect.
The opportunity for mitigation doesn’t stay open indefinitely, there is a point when it becomes too late. Because of the way global physics works in time, what we do today impacts over coming decades. Waiting until the crisis is at the door is past the point we can do much about collapse. Climate collapse at that level is the end of civilisation as we know it.
Still thinking ‘she’ll be right’ in New Zealand? Go read up about wet bulb temperature.
All of which is to say two things. This is why adaptation without mitigation is an utter nonsense.
And, this is an actual emergency. Not in the future, but here and now. So why aren’t we acting as if it is?
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- Release: Three strikes law political posturing of worst kindThe Government is bringing back a law that has little evidential backing just to look tough, Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said. ...1 week ago
- Release: Government cuts unbelievably target child exploitation, violent extremism, ports and airpor...Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...1 week ago
- Three strikes has failed before and will fail againResurrecting the archaic three-strikes legislation is an unwelcome return to a failed American-style approach to justice. ...1 week ago
- Release: Environmental protection vital, not ‘onerous’The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...1 week ago
- Ferris – Three Strikes targets those ‘too brown to be white’The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...1 week ago
- Release: Govt cuts doctors and nurses in hiring freezeCuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...2 weeks ago
- Fast-track submissions period must be extendedThe Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Progress on climate will be undone by GovtNew Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Dark day for Kiwi kids as a third of Govt cuts affect themNews that 1000 jobs at the Ministry of Education and Oranga Tamariki could go is devastating for future generations of New Zealanders. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Alarm as Government signals further blow to school lunchesMore essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...2 weeks ago
- Oranga Tamariki cuts commit tamariki to state abuseTe Pāti Māori is disgusted at the confirmation that hundreds are set to lose their jobs at Oranga Tamariki, and the disestablishment of the Treaty Response Unit. “This act of absolute carelessness and out of touch decision making is committing tamariki to state abuse.” Said Te Pāti Māori Oranga Tamariki ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Quick, submit – stop Govt’s dodgy approvals billThe Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...2 weeks ago
- Government throws coal on the climate crisis fireThe Government’s policy announced today to ease consenting for coal mining will have a lasting impact across generations. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Public transport costs to double as National looks at unaffordable roading project insteadCancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Cost of living in Auckland still not a priorityA laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...2 weeks ago
- Te Pāti Māori to visit Queensland to strengthen ties with Māori in AustraliaTe Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi, and Mema Paremata mō Tāmaki-Makaurau, Takutai Tarsh Kemp, will travel to the Gold Coast to strengthen ties with Māori in Australia next week (15-21 April). The visit, in the lead-up to the 9th Australian National Kapa haka Festival, will be an opportunity for both ...2 weeks ago
- Greens look to fast-track submissions on harmful lawThe Green Party has today launched a step-by-step guide to help New Zealanders make their voice heard on the Government’s democracy dodging and anti-environment fast track legislation. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Govt should stop making people’s lives harder and build more homesThe National Government’s proposed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act will mean tenants can be turfed from their homes by landlords with little notice, Labour housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty said. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Melissa Lee missing in action on mediaThe action Melissa Lee promised to protect democracy and the media sector is missing, Media and Communications spokesperson Willie Jackson said. ...3 weeks ago
- Landlord Government leaves little hope for rentersThe Government’s announcement on tenancy rules prove that it does not care about renters. ...3 weeks ago
- Opportunity to build a more sustainable economyGreen Party co-leader Marama Davidson is calling on all parties to support a common-sense change that’s great for the planet and great for consumers after her member’s bill was drawn from the ballot today. ...3 weeks ago
- Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill passes first reading
The return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...11 hours ago - Government to boost public EV charging networkEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...11 hours ago
- Residential Property Managers Bill to not progressThe coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...12 hours ago
- Independent review into disability support servicesThe Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...17 hours ago
- Justice Minister updates UN on law & order planJustice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...18 hours ago
- Trade Minister travels to Riyadh, OECD, and DubaiTrade Minister Todd McClay heads overseas today for high-level trade talks in the Gulf region, and a key OECD meeting in Paris. Mr McClay will travel to Riyadh to meet with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). “New Zealand’s goods and services exports to the Gulf region ...1 day ago
- Education priorities focused on lifting achievementEducation Minister Erica Stanford has outlined six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system that sets Kiwi kids up for future success. “I’m putting ambition, achievement and outcomes at the heart of our education system. I want every child to be inspired and engaged in their learning so they ...1 day ago
- NZTA App first step towards digital driver licenceThe new NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) App is a secure ‘one stop shop’ to provide the services drivers need, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Digitising Government Minister Judith Collins say. “The NZTA App will enable an easier way for Kiwis to pay for Vehicle Registration and Road User Charges (RUC). ...1 day ago
- Supporting whānau out of emergency housingWhānau with tamariki growing up in emergency housing motels will be prioritised for social housing starting this week, says Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka. “Giving these whānau a better opportunity to build healthy stable lives for themselves and future generations is an essential part of the Government’s goal of reducing ...2 days ago
- Tribute to Dave O'SullivanRacing Minister Winston Peters has paid tribute to an icon of the industry with the recent passing of Dave O’Sullivan (OBE). “Our sympathies are with the O’Sullivan family with the sad news of Dave O’Sullivan’s recent passing,” Mr Peters says. “His contribution to racing, initially as a jockey and then ...2 days ago
- Speech – Eid al-FitrAssalaamu alaikum, greetings to you all. Eid Mubarak, everyone! I want to extend my warmest wishes to you and everyone celebrating this joyous occasion. It is a pleasure to be here. I have enjoyed Eid celebrations at Parliament before, but this is my first time joining you as the Minister ...2 days ago
- Government saves access to medicinesAssociate Health Minister David Seymour has announced Pharmac’s largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff. “Access to medicines is a crucial part of many Kiwis’ lives. We’ve committed to a budget allocation of $1.774 billion over four years so Kiwis are ...2 days ago
- Pharmac Chair appointedHon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...3 days ago
- Taking action on Fetal Alcohol Spectrum DisorderHundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says. “Every day, ...4 days ago
- New sports complex opens in KaikoheRegional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...4 days ago
- Diplomacy needed more than everForeign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges. “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...4 days ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address, Buttes New British Cemetery BelgiumAmbassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service. It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...5 days ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address – NZ National Service, Chunuk BairDistinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...5 days ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address – Dawn Service, Gallipoli, TürkiyeMai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia. Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...6 days ago
- PM announces changes to portfoliosPaul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...7 days ago
- New catch limits for unique fishery areasRecreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...7 days ago
- Minister welcomes hydrogen milestoneEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...1 week ago
- Urgent changes to system through first RMA Amendment BillThe coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...1 week ago
- Overseas decommissioning models consideredOverseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...1 week ago
- Release of North Island Severe Weather Event InquiryEmergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...1 week ago
- Justice Minister to attend Human Rights CouncilJustice Minister Paul Goldsmith is today travelling to Europe where he’ll update the United Nations Human Rights Council on the Government’s work to restore law and order. “Attending the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva provides us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while ...1 week ago
- Patterson reopens world’s largest wool scouring facilityAssociate Agriculture Minister, Mark Patterson, formally reopened the world’s largest wool processing facility today in Awatoto, Napier, following a $50 million rebuild and refurbishment project. “The reopening of this facility will significantly lift the economic opportunities available to New Zealand’s wool sector, which already accounts for 20 per cent of ...1 week ago
- Speech to the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective Summit, 18 April 2024Hon Andrew Bayly, Minister for Small Business and Manufacturing At the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective (SOREC) Summit, 18 April, Dunedin Ngā mihi nui, Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Ko Whanganui aho Good Afternoon and thank you for inviting me to open your summit today. I am delighted ...1 week ago
- Government to introduce revised Three Strikes lawThe Government is delivering on its commitment to bring back the Three Strikes legislation, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee announced today. “Our Government is committed to restoring law and order and enforcing appropriate consequences on criminals. We are making it clear that repeat serious violent or sexual offending is not ...1 week ago
- New diplomatic appointmentsForeign Minister Winston Peters has today announced four new diplomatic appointments for New Zealand’s overseas missions. “Our diplomats have a vital role in maintaining and protecting New Zealand’s interests around the world,” Mr Peters says. “I am pleased to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the ...1 week ago
- Humanitarian support for Ethiopia and SomaliaNew Zealand is contributing NZ$7 million to support communities affected by severe food insecurity and other urgent humanitarian needs in Ethiopia and Somalia, Foreign Minister Rt Hon Winston Peters announced today. “Over 21 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance across Ethiopia, with a further 6.9 million people ...1 week ago
- Arts Minister congratulates Mataaho CollectiveMinister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Paul Goldsmith is congratulating Mataaho Collective for winning the Golden Lion for best participant in the main exhibition at the Venice Biennale. "Congratulations to the Mataaho Collective for winning one of the world's most prestigious art prizes at the Venice Biennale. “It is good ...1 week ago
- Supporting better financial outcomes for KiwisThe Government is reforming financial services to improve access to home loans and other lending, and strengthen customer protections, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly and Housing Minister Chris Bishop announced today. “Our coalition Government is committed to rebuilding the economy and making life simpler by cutting red tape. We are ...1 week ago
- Trade relationship with China remains strong“China remains a strong commercial opportunity for Kiwi exporters as Chinese businesses and consumers continue to value our high-quality safe produce,” Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. Mr McClay has returned to New Zealand following visits to Beijing, Harbin and Shanghai where he met ministers, governors and mayors and engaged in trade and agricultural events with the New ...1 week ago
- PM’s South East Asia mission does the businessPrime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...2 weeks ago
- $41m to support clean energy in South East AsiaNew Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...2 weeks ago
- Minister releases Fast-track stakeholder listThe Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...2 weeks ago
- Judicial appointments announcedAttorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...2 weeks ago
- Education Minister heads to major teaching summit in SingaporeEducation Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa. The summit is co-hosted ...2 weeks ago
- Value of stopbank project proven during cycloneA stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...2 weeks ago
- Pacific alliance condemns France over bid to ‘derail’ Kanaky decolonisation
Asia Pacific Report A Pacific civil society alliance has condemned French neocolonial policies in Kanaky New Caledonia, saying Paris is set on “maintaining the status quo” and denying the indigenous Kanak people their inalienable right to self-determination. The Pacific Regional Non-Governmental Organisations (PRNGOs) Alliance, representing some 15 groups, said in ...2 hours ago - New Koi Tū future report calls for overhaul of outdated NZ mediascape to restore trustKoi Tū New Zealand cannot sit back and see the collapse of its Fourth Estate, the director of Koi Tū: The Centre for Informed Futures, Sir Peter Gluckman, says in the foreword of a paper published today. The paper, “If not journalists, then who?” paints a picture of an industry ...3 hours ago
- Chalmers outlines a more ‘risk-based’ foreign investment policy and guardrails around Future Mad...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Foreign investment proposals with implications for Australia’s strategic or economic security will face tougher scrutiny, under a policy overhaul to be announced by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Wednesday. At the same time, the government ...3 hours ago
- National first introduced piece of Oranga Tamariki Act legislation it now seeks to repeal – Wi...
A Waitangi Tribunal inquiry report has warned government that a repeal of Section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act could cause harm to children in care. ...7 hours ago - New Papers On Government Consumption Multipliers, Automatic Stabilisers And Economic Shocks
The Treasury has published today three new papers covering government consumption multipliers, automatic stabilisers and the impacts of global shocks on New Zealand’s economy. ...8 hours ago - Pacific state of Hawai’i first in US to pass dual Gaza ceasefire resolutionsAsia Pacific Report The Pacific state of Hawai’i’s House of Representatives has joined the state’s Senate in calling for a ceasefire in Israel’s war on Gaza, becoming the first state to pass such a resolution, reports Hawaii News Now. In March, the Senate passed a ceasefire resolution with a 24–1 ...9 hours ago
- Australia just made a billion-dollar bet on building the world’s first ‘useful’ quantum comput...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Ferrie, A/Prof, UTS Chancellor’s Postdoctoral Research and ARC DECRA Fellow, University of Technology Sydney PsiQuantum The Australian government has announced a pledge of approximately A$940 million (US$617 million) to PsiQuantum, a quantum computing start-up company based in Silicon Valley. Half ...10 hours ago
- What are heart rate zones, and how can you incorporate them into your exercise routine?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hunter Bennett, Lecturer in Exercise Science, University of South Australia Cameron Prins/Shutterstock If you spend a lot of time exploring fitness content online, you might have come across the concept of heart rate zones. Heart rate zone training has become more ...10 hours ago
- Ministry of Māori Development proposes to cut 38 positionsA recruitment pause put in place last year had reduced the scale of job losses necessary, says the secretary for Māori development. ...10 hours ago
- 'A man of the people': MPs pay tribute to Fa'anānā Efeso CollinsThe MPs reflected on the impact Fa'anānā had in Parliament, in his communities, and their long friendships with him. ...11 hours ago
- School phone ban for 16-year-olds 'very backward' – principalTwo secondary school principals are not convinced a phone ban is warranted and say it will be difficult to enforce. ...11 hours ago
- 27 years in captivity – free Marwan Barghouti, ‘Palestine’s Mandela’SPECIAL REPORT: By Eugene Doyle He is the most popular Palestinian leader alive today — and yet few people in the West even know his name. Absolutely no one in Gaza or the West Bank does not know him. That difference speaks volumes about who dominates the media narrative that ...12 hours ago
- Members of Parliament and Prime Minister to get pay riseThe Remuneration Authority has set an ordinary MPs' salary at $168,600 a year, and the PM's salary will rise to $484,200. ...12 hours ago
- Long before politicians called to ‘stop the boats’, First Nations people welcomed arrivals from ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Will McCallum, PhD Candidate – School of Communication and Creative Arts, Deakin University Earlier this year, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton accused Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of not supporting Operation Sovereign Borders – the military-led border security operation that has “closed Australia’s borders ...12 hours ago
- Does the AFL ban on skinfold testing avoid fat shaming – or has footy ‘gone soft’?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dominique Condo, Senior Lecturer in Sports Nutrition, Deakin University Microgen/Shutterstock There was, perhaps unsurprising, outcry from some sections of the sports media when it was revealed the AFL was removing body composition testing (including skinfold testing) in its junior (under the ...13 hours ago
- Supreme Court reinstates PNG MP after bribery ruling overturnedBy Melyne Baroi in Port Moresby A Papua New Guinea MP, Peter Isoaimo, who had been ousted by the National Court in an alleged bribery case, has been reinstated by the Supreme Court on appeal. A three-member Supreme Court bench found that the National Court had erred in finding that ...13 hours ago
- Problems for news media arose 'too fast' – former media minister Melissa LeeThe former media minister says she may have been "a little slow" in reacting to dramatic changes. ...14 hours ago
- ‘When the ship docks’: Publishing the poetry of the late Schaeffer Lemalu
Publisher Chris Holdaway reflects on the unique project of collecting the work of the late, terrific poet Schaeffer Lemalu. One of the nice things you can do as a truly independent publisher is to make the books that writers want to make, whatever they happen to be. That’s how I’ve ...14 hours ago - New minister announces review into disability support services funded by WhaikahaThe ministry has been under fire for not consulting with carers before changing entitlements to flexible funding support. ...14 hours ago
- Afghanistan Service Recognised In NZ Post’s Modern Veterans Stamp SeriesThose profiled in the stamp series served on overseas deployments from 1995 onwards, and all have been awarded theNew Zealand Operational Service Medal. ...14 hours ago
- On the politics of vengeanceLast night’s dismal poll result for the coalition government shows the limits of trying to govern as an opposition, argues Joel MacManus. There’s a quote from the American political activist Barbara Deming: “Vengeance is not the point; change is. But the trouble is that in most people’s minds, the thought ...14 hours ago
- Govt might take $1.1b hit to return GST on rates to councilsAnalysis by infometrics shows central government collected about that amount in GST from rates in 2022. ...15 hours ago
- ‘Abject failure’: why Australia’s scheme to curb foreign influence doesn’t work and can’t ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shireen Morris, Associate Professor and Director of the Radical Centre Reform Lab at Macquarie University Law School, Macquarie University Leonid Andronov/Shutterstock Foreign interference in Australian democracy poses a growing risk to our national sovereignty. It refers to coercive, corrupt or ...15 hours ago
- Defendant Pleads Guilty In Mortgage Fraud SchemeA defendant charged by the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) has pleaded guilty to four charges of obtaining by deception in relation to a mortgage fraud scheme. Sentencing has been scheduled for 14 August 2024. ...16 hours ago
- A handy primer for arts spokespeople who know nothing about New Zealand artWhat to say when pesky journalists ask gotcha questions like ‘can you name a single book you’ve ever read?’ and ‘did you read it, or did you just see the movie?’ This week, Act Party arts spokesperson Todd Stephenson foolishly agreed to an interview with Newsroom’s Steve Braunias regarding his ...16 hours ago
- School cellphone ban: What you need to knowExplainer - What will a ban on cellphones in schools achieve? Can students use them during lunch breaks? And what happens if you need to contact your child? ...16 hours ago
- We found pesticides in a third of Australian frogs we tested. Did these cause mass deaths?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jodi Rowley, Curator, Amphibian & Reptile Conservation Biology, Australian Museum, UNSW Sydney Jodi Rowley, CC BY-NC-ND In winter 2021, Australia’s frogs started dropping dead. People began posting images of dead frogs on social media. Unable to travel to investigate the deaths ...16 hours ago
- Share Of Home Transfers To Overseas Buyers Remains LowIn the year ended March 2024, 0.4 percent of home transfers were to people who didn’t hold New Zealand citizenship or a resident visa, according to figures released by Stats NZ today. ...16 hours ago
- 364,000 New Zealanders rely on an accomodation supplement – but these 3 flaws need fixingSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wasay Majid, Research Assistant , University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau New Zealand’s accommodation supplement scheme is facing scrutiny, with Social Development Minister Louise Upston recently saying “there is merit in considering whether the current settings are fair and sustainable long-term”. The ...17 hours ago
- Manasseh Sogavare bows out of prime ministerial race in Solomon IslandsBy Koroi Hawkins, RNZ Pacific editor The first prime ministerial candidate has been announced in Solomon Islands and it is not Manasseh Sogavare. The man of the hour is Jeremiah Manele, the MP for Hograno/Kia/Havulei constituency in Isabel Province, who served as minister of foreign affairs in the last government. ...17 hours ago
- If you love a dog, you must also love disposing of its shitProtesting the removal of bins by leaving piles of your dog’s shit for others to deal with doesn’t make you a hero – it’s precious and entitled behaviour. You haven’t truly lived until you’ve stood on the shoreline of Auckland’s Cheltenham beach, desperately trying to scoop increasingly liquid dog shit ...17 hours ago
- Analysis: What the shock poll tells us about the coalition governmentAnalysis - Christopher Luxon will be alert to the factors driving the dire polling, but won't be waving the white flag just yet, RNZ political editor Jo Moir writes. ...18 hours ago
- Moe mai rā: Tributes to Vincent O’SullivanWriter, teacher and academic Vincent O’Sullivan died on Sunday 28 April. Here we gather tributes from friends, colleagues, and students who remember his extraordinary contributions. I went down to the garage tonight. There was a bird shrieking out in the bush, in the dark, maybe a kākā. Miraculously, through the ...18 hours ago
- Call for radical reform of Pharmac's budget amid concern Kiwis not getting basic standard of ca...New Zealand offers no appeal for drug companies because it's so hard to make a sale, the Cancer Society says. ...19 hours ago
- The cost of being: A ‘semi-unemployed’ house-sitter with dwindling savingsAs part of our series exploring how New Zealanders live and our relationship with money, a burnt-out corporate escapee explains how she gets by ‘working as little as possible’. Want to be part of The Cost of Being? Fill out the questionnaire here. Gender: Female Age: 31 Ethnicity: Pākehā Role: Contractor in ...19 hours ago
- Think all chemicals are bad? From our food to your phone, modern life relies on themSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Schmidt, Professor of Chemistry, UNSW Sydney Albert Russ / Shutterstock The icebreaker of many a barbeque conversation is something like “what do you do for a crust?” “I teach chemistry at university,” is what we usually reply. Then silence. Our ...19 hours ago
- Tech-based sexual harassment at work is common, male-dominated and often intended to cause harmSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Asher Flynn, Associate Professor of Criminology, Monash University Shutterstock Sexual harassment is often considered to be a person-to-person act, but new research shows Australians are also experiencing and perpetrating workplace harassment in large numbers through technology. Our latest study shows one ...19 hours ago
- When supplies resume, should governments subsidise drugs like Ozempic for weight loss? We asked 5 ex...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fron Jackson-Webb, Deputy Editor and Senior Health Editor Rostislav_Sedlacek/Shutterstock Hundreds of thousands of people worldwide are taking drugs like Ozempic to lose weight. But what do we actually know about them? This month, The Conversation’s experts explore their rise, impact and ...19 hours ago
- Gaza Petition To Be Tabled In Parliament TodayA petition signed by more than 16,500 people, demanding the government take stronger action to halt the genocide of Palestinians by the State of Israel, is being presented to the House of Representatives today by Hon Phil Twyford. ...20 hours ago
- It’s time to strike an environmental grand bargain between businesses, governments and conservatio...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Burnett, Honorary Associate Professor, ANU College of Law, Australian National University jenmartin/Shutterstock April has been a bad month for the Australian environment. The Great Barrier Reef was hit, yet again, by intense coral bleaching. And Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek delayed ...20 hours ago
- Vietnam, brutalist architecture, fees and Gaza: how student protests shaped Australian universitiesSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hannah Lewi, Professor, Architecture, The University of Melbourne Anti-Vietnam War protests at the University of Sydney, 1969. Mitchell Library, State Library of New South Wales and Courtesy SEARCH Foundation, CC BY Australian university students are beginning to set up encampments on campus, ...20 hours ago
- Waitangi Tribunal report urges government stop changes to Oranga Tamariki ActThe report highlights concern over the approach the government is taking. ...20 hours ago
- Politics live: Shocking poll result for coalition, government pushes school phone banThe education minister says a "handful" of schools haven't brought in full bans and are being spoken to. ...20 hours ago
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NZ horticulture derives about $4.5 billion of exports from only 55,000 hectares of land.
Viticulture is continuing strong expansion beyond Marlborough into Canterbury and Central Otago.
Apple production was hit hard in Hawkes Bay.
Kiwifruit is expanding fast esp East Coast.
Avocados are accelerating in Northland, as is hops in Nelson. Southland (Garston) has a large hops farm now. In Wanaka we're doing our first crop of Kumara. Far fewer frosts over the last decade.
What NZ hort needs to compete for land against dairy is small-medium dams and sustained good export prices. Looking forward to dairy in Central being eradicated by grapes.
Dairy's never made much sense in the drier parts of the country, and I'm also looking forward to a shift to grapes and olives in those districts. As for dairy in the Mackenzie Basin, it makes about as much sense as trying to grow bananas in Banff.
why grapes in Central predominantly rather than other crops?
Grapes = wine = economic growth.
Swopping one money-maker for another. Race to the bottom.
yes, but Ad is one of the few people on TS doing serious thinking about how we transition relatively fast without collapsing the economy into ruins.
without alternative narratives of the how, a wine fuelled race to the bottom it is.
the core problem is how to run an export economy in the short term that increasingly does less damage, and in the medium/long term actively regenerates (and maybe that's not an export economy).
if you can suggest ways to get straight to a regenerative economy I’m all ears.
Regenerative ag sounds fine, until you track how successful it actually is; organic/sustainable grape-growing also. The super-structure/banks/industries holding these industries up block genuine, large-scale movement away from highest-profit versions of their farms/vineyards. We have make the break, or we'll never escape. Advocating just-another-in-the-meantime means more of the same. Once you've set up the expensive posts and wires, irrigations systems etc. needed for vines, you'll be caught in the race. To the bottom. As well, the environment continues to suffer while we're on hold; degradations that come with monocultures and polluting land-use industries. How is hop-growing "transitioning really fast"?
I agree that Ad is thinking deeply about these things. I am not criticising him. I had Dolomedes III in mind 🙂
you seem to be under the mistaken impression I am advocating the wine industry, or supporting Ad's advocacy.
Sure. Now tell me the plan of how to do that. Because everyone knows what we should be doing. Very few are talking strategy and action.
Hemp and/or cannabis.
For example: approx 15 billion trees per year cut down worldwide to make paper. (The number itself is irrelevant, it's a lot). Not sure why we don't make paper from hemp as it's much quicker and easier to grow than trees.
Phytoremediation: It seems more and more studies are showing that cannabis is excellent at removing pollutants from soils.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8912475/
Building materials, Plastic substitute, textiles, Biofuels, cosmetics, biopesticides, health foods…. The list of uses and potential uses keeps getting longer and longer.
Then you've got the potential medicinal and mental health applications which are finally starting to be researched seriously.
Vineyards have a few benefits that no other crop has:
Cool, Ad. If I may address some of your many points:
Robert since you insist on bringing a brown banana to a knife fight.
The James Shaw Green Party knew about prosperity, and the left won't win again until people like you figure that out.
1. Tourists get here by car and plane. That's 11.4% of our total exports. OK cupcake?
2. People of Otara actually figure where they want to spend their holidays without racist stereotypes from you.
3. If you don't realise that telling a story to a foreigner takes effort, you'll struggle to figure out why Obama agreed to market the $450 jerseys of Untouched World
4. High contributing visitors contribute across the economy and across multiple levels.
5. I expect better from you. Next time bring a fact along.
Information; data, observations, predictions, arguments, examples etc. such as you've presented here is water off a duck's back to most people, as is information about global homelessness, poverty, war, famine, disease, slavery etc.
It's too much to consider, process and bear.
Loading information onto people in order to "bring them to their senses" and effect change in behaviour is ineffective, even when done by the most sincere of people or organisations determined to save us all.
Holding such information somewhere is of course, necessary; we can't hide from it and need to be exposed to it, but we won't be, in the main, galvanised into action as a result of hearing and seeing it. Humans are resistant to the influence of incoming mega-information, perhaps as part of our need to survive psychologically in our enhanced/big-brained state.
There is though, a way to by-pass the filters we seem to be fitted with; story. Story-telling and listening-to, watching and otherwise receiving, stories. I believe we are reliant now on story-tellers to get us through. Sadly, we've granted the position of story-telling to Big Story; the agency that makes most of the stories we hear and see through the portal of our screens.
Our small-story tellers; visual artists, dancers, musicians, prose-writers, poets, carvers, buskers, mimes (no, not mimes! 🙂 song-writers, et cetera, et cetera are our hope for the future. They can and I hope will, guide the Ship of Fools through the rough passage ahead.
In you eye, Big Everything!
Hospice Earth.
what if acting now makes the difference? Drop GHGs fast, transition to regenerative economics, mass restoration of ecosystems. Those are all possible in terms of tech and the material world.
What if warming is but one of a cluster of escalating ills?
Neonicotinoids and micro plastics seem to have started their own environmental collapses; better deal with those as well!
Yep, it's a polycrisis, and systems thinking is required to see how all those things interact, and how the solutions do too.
Systems thinking?
I say, animism.
animism is a form of systems thinking. The issue is how to get the very large number of people who are illiterate in 'nature is alive' to come to their sense?
Foster the telling of stories with an animist theme.
Children enjoy such stories. Let's start with them.
After all, children are our future, yes?
Many adults recognise the power of such stories also. Let's share those stories with everyone.
Sometimes a wild god.
https://tomhirons.com/poetry/sometimes-a-wild-god
Or a Matauranga Māori theme
Ae. Tika. Indigenous cultures from across the planet, including our own past selves, reported the existence of non-human "persons" as a matter of course.
Popular music and the arts are another way to influence culture and change our trajectory. I liked this article on the role of culture: (paraphrase)
Cultural and Spiritual Transformation – addressing the Climate Crisis in our daily lives within the Modern World | SEAI | Blog
Agreed, roblogic. Perhaps you've been a Dark Mountain reader also?
For me, it's about direct experience – it's tricky to advise others if you've not directly experienced at least some of the "ephemeral" things you are promoting. That's achieved through stillness in natural spaces and attention to detail, imo 🙂 Probably not the forum for an in-depth discussion, TS but there'll be some here who are all about this.
Haven't come across "Dark Mountain" before – is it this collective of authors?
This thread on X today was a relevant critique of western culture:
Yep, that's them:
https://dark-mountain.net
Agree with your quote.
I suggested on X recently that we need to act quickly, and the present CoC was absolutely the worst government in the face of the impending climate catastrophe!
While a few agreed with me, it was disheartening the read all the climate denying tweets, some quite abusive!
The little boy who cried wolf seemed to be a recurring belief.
I feel quite disillusioned about our ability to respond in any meaningful way to avoid what's heading our way, and much much sooner than expected.
"disillusioned"?
That might be a good thing. It's our illusions that got us into this mess 🙂
After disillusionment, what comes?
Clarity?
The great fear, Robert, is that after disillusionment comes despair!
Well, it does! Then after that..?
Unfortunately – hospice Earth!
I reckon, "realistic determination".
That is, there's a significant chance of failure, but I'm going to do everything I can to avert it.
Same as it ever was.
my solution to that on twitter is to be selective in who I respond to and who I talk with. I just told one climate denier there was no point in talking evidence as it would waste both our time. They accepted that and moved on.
I am careful how I curate my twitter generally.
The point is not that I should monitor who I attempt to communicate with on Twitter, but the level, as Obtrectator so rightly says below, of pretty profound ignorance (which precedes denial) on the whole topic of climate change.
Sure, more and more people are waking up, led largely by the younger generation, but enough? Is there enough time?
My fear is that we won't fully realise the shit we're in until it's up to our chins!
edit: largely answered by weka’s response below. Though it doesn’t answer the time question!
I think we should all be monitoring who we talk to on SM, because the SM giants are using sophisticated tech to manipulate us by what they expose us to in the feed.
And that directly relates to feelings of despair, which in turn directly affects politics and action/non-action.
I share your fear that we won't act in time, and I intentionally choose to move out of that and into states of hope and action, because I can't see how action can come from fear alone.
The time question for me is held in the idea that tipping points hold a lot of power for potential change. The pandemic taught us that change can happen very fast when there is a will. There are other examples, and XR in particular studied protest culture and successful change historically and deliberately developed their strategies and tactics from that. That's why they were able to change the whole public awareness and discourse in a short period if time.
Yes, of course we have all those possible actions, but how do you get a largely ignorant populace to see the need for them?
The current socio-political climate (pun unavoidable) makes it impossible to deploy them. Measures on that scale, with the consequent necessary degree of control over people's lives, only find general acceptance in extreme circumstances such as war, a virulent plague, or some colossal natural disaster – none of which (bar possibly the plague) appear likely to supervene until we're well beyond the tipping point.
Three things.
One is understanding why people aren't acting. That covers climate deniers and delayers, but there is a much larger group of people that know CC is real, and serious, but feel stuck on how to act. Humans are also suffering from depression and despair, and we need to support ourselves to not get stuck in that.
Two is the absolute necessity of telling the stories of what people can do and how things can work out. We are inundated with stories of how bad it is, and quite a few of it's too late. What we need now are the stories of hope that tell us yes it is bad, and this is what we can do instead. When you see people telling those stories, please amplify them.
Three is watching for the smaller sociopolitical tipping points and being ready to make sure we tip in a good direction. We have already had the pandemic and Cyclone Gabrielle. There will be more events like that in the near term that we can work with. Preparing for them is a challenge that requires a lot of rethinking the leftist approach and how to work with people across difference.
Would it be timely to (again) note that the most effective change the individual can make..to try to lessen this shit storm..
..is to switch to a plant-based diet..?
..so if you really care…go there…eh..?
What about fungi, Phillip; the 3rd Kingdom, as akin to animals as to plants?
How could you (eat a mushroom)?
Is this another version of the screaming plant self-jusifying bullshit/excuse some flesh-eaters spin..?
I don't like mushrooms..so don't eat them..but not for any ethical reasons..
And how about you robert..?
How is it that you wear the green badge..and bang on about environmental issues..
Then you sit down to eat the flesh/fat of some long-suffering animal…that has had a hellish trip to your plate..?
How could you eat animals..robert..?
How do you justify/excuse that fail in 'green' behavior..?
Yeah, I'm familiar with your views on meat-eating Phil – I was extending the discussion into an area that's poorly defined, the fungal world, and wondered you'd applied your thinking to that in the same way you encourage others to consider meat-eating.
Saying you don't eat them because you don't like them side-steps the point of my question; are fungi animal or plant and how do you consider the eating of them, in light of your intense interesting what humans eat?
No..I haven't applied my thinking to that..
..but I would not consider mushrooms to be animals.. suffering from confinement..ending in pain/suffering/death…to be eaten by you..
Personally…I would probably be nearest the jainists…
But I do not apply the degree of self-regulation they practise..tho' I can see their point'..
Hope that clarifies that for you..
Now..how about you having a go at what I asked you..
A valid question…I would submit…
..given your well-trumpeted stances..
And if other people did consider it unethical to eat fungi because they believed them to be sentient? Advanced in their sentience, even?
Would you eat them then?
Why are you..an animal eater..dancing on the head of this pin..?
I'm calling bullshit..
How about just showing me the respect of answering my (entirely valid) question…
A question you should have asked yourself..a long time ago..eh..?
And that you haven't..is denial on steroids..
I'm asking you a genuine question, Phillip, just as you ask everyone here, repeatedly, about meat-eating. Why are you belittling my question to you? Given that I asked first, you might understand how I might feel about your dismissive answer and your angry response to my kindly insistence on a deeper response from you. I wonder if some people might feel the same way about your oft-asked questions about meat-eating?
ok, I'm going to put some limits on this sub-debate under my posts. Argue the points and the politics, but if you are going to tip over into personal attacks, I will moderate.
Not everyone sees the world in the way you do Phillip, if you want to lambast them personally for that, do it somewhere else.
Love mushrooms, but draw the line at chips – a pity, given some are made in NZ, and then there are imported (Australian) options.
https://www.mushroomhouse.co.nz/crispy-coated-oyster-mushroom-chips-70g
https://healthysnacks.nz/products/shiitake-mushroom-chips
https://www.super-store.co.nz/shitake-mushroom-crisps-225g.html
Couldn't eat insect-based food either – at least not knowingly – silly, I know.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insects_as_food
I've mentioned this before, but 60 years ago Mum (bless her) cooked a meat-meal for the dinner table seven days a week, except for the afternoon Sunday roast when my local (widdowed) Grandma joined us.
Many Kiwis are lowering their meat consumption, with monetary and (human) health considerations significant drivers – I might eat a meat meal two days a week (I don't keep count). There's an absolutely fabulous array of NZ-made plant-based soup pouches in supermarkets. Tasty and nutritious (four out of five health stars), with a long refrigerator life, and ludicrously easy to 'prepare' – three minutes in the microwave – great for oldies. It's not haute cuisine, but it's hot cuisine, and you can add locally-harvested mushrooms (or whatever) for extra flavour, although it's not been good season for mushies in Palmy – too dry, and gosh isn't the river low.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/300865998/where-has-my-soft-plastic-collection-point-gone-and-what-i-can-do-about-it
On the plus side, the feijoas are well and truly here, and this year we're determined not to let a single one go to waste. Every fruit that doesn't get eaten fresh will be scooped out and frozen for smoothies through 2024 into 2025 until the next season arrives. And on the topics of smoothies, and veganism, dairy addiction is alas my Achilles' heel – I could give it up, but not voluntarily.
you can choose to buy ethical dairy (if you have the income to do that). More choices now than there used to be. Prioritise organic, local, small scale.
I see cows in flat, fenced (sometimes electrically) paddocks, eating grass (that's all their is) and wonder how bored they must be; mindlessly eating because there is nothing else to do; no logs to nudge, rivers to cross, wolves to run from, calves to nurture, bulls to be wary of, shrubs to munch upon, mushrooms to sniff.
We baulk at the sight of caged lions and tigers, pacing madly.
How about cows? Is it right for us to condemn them to prolonged boredom and empty-headedness?
I used to buy milk off Holy Cow in Dunedin, visited the farm a few times. Small herd, he knows the name of each of his cows, has a great love for them. The farm isn't just flat Southland paddocks. Lots of potential to do even better for many small dairy farmers.
I like the look of the Gow's place out past your way too, haven't been there though. I'd buy their meat.
It's about moving in the right direction.
Because people are saying they love their oat or soy milk, and I see large scale monocropping, the destruction of biodiversity and the murder of whole ecosystems, the small animals destroyed by harvesting machinery, the life harmed by the factories needed to make the plastic/paper/metal single use packaging that needs more industrial processes to be recycled, all the pollution and waste involved in that, and that can never be composted. And the carbon miles on all of that.
The oat milk company that ships their oats to Europe to be made into milk and then ships it back again. The sugars and other ingredients added to plant milks. On and on it goes.
I will keep buying my milk from Farm Fresh, who raise their cows in Southland and direct transport to retailers or customers, in glass bottles that they reuse. Not perfect, but 50 cows, trying to be organic, and heading in the right direction.
and yes I agree with you about the boredom. Large scale dairying is a crime in that regard. One of the great things about buying ethical meat and dairy is we directly support the farmers that are trying to change things for the better for the animals as well.
Of course, nothing is perfect, especially when we have already broken well away from the perfection-baseline, if ever there was one.
We can be sure also, that we will not ever please everyone, nor even balance-up our own ideas and beliefs – too many of those are embedded so deeply it's impossible to prise them out, or even detect them in many cases; we have to do the best we can and try not to make matters worse through our proselytising 🙂
I think though, that the angle to take on matters that affect others; people, animals, all living entities for that matter, is theirs, if they are the victims/recipients of our actions. It's easy enough for the oppressors/users etc. to justify their actions, so we should, imo, disregard those explanations, and ask the underdogs how they see the situation 🙂
well sure. I just don't hierarchise milking animals as being worse than ecosystem death. In terms of looking at it from the other being's pov, I cannot see how eating plants is inherently more respectful to life than eating from animals.
Either are both capable of creating great suffering and both can be done considerable better than we generally do. And either way, another life form will die so that you and I can live and be well.
Anyone saying 'plant based is better than animal milk' really isn't taking any of that into account.
" In terms of looking at it from the other being's pov, I cannot see how eating plants is inherently more respectful to life than eating from animals."
You believe that eating plants could be "creating great suffering" to the plants?
Really?
And that we can do plant-eating considerably better than we generally do?
Please expand on your thoughts 🙂
I gave a full explanation above in a reply to you on how eating plants can cause destruction and suffering.
ok
" I cannot see how eating plants is inherently more respectful to life than eating from animals."
Well, it just is 🙂
There are far fewer ethical issues with eating a lettuce than there are with eating a kereru, imo.
Could someone please explain to me just what it is that makes "ethical dairy/meat'…'ethical'..
..as opposed to the unethical stuff?..
..and what is it that makes the other stuff unethical..?
It's all about intent, Phil. Hunters of yester-year, dressed as their prey, danced as their prey, sang as their prey, then hunted their prey. They believed they had established a relationship with the deer/bear through song and ceremony, that engaged the animals in a symbiotic relationship that both sustained the consumer and up-lifted the eaten.
Can you show that this was not the case?
Yes..lots of cultures make up myths to justify their mistreatment of animals..
That one is particularly fanciful…
You are wrong about that, Phil. Or are you putting your personal opinion up against the traditions of so many indigenous peoples: tītī harvest, white baiting, kereru .. 🙂
I still have it in mind to do a post on that.
Chrs…!
And we have the highest concentration of greenhouse gases ever:
Guardian – Scientists confirm record highs for three most important heat-trapping gases
So we're going the wrong direction globally (and in NZ). We have to reduce emissions nearly 50% (compared to 2022) by 2030 to keep the 1.5 degree target.
And here another example why we should invest into infrastructure (not into roads) instead of providing stupid tax cuts:
RNZ – Energy sector upgrades unaffordable, unachievable, trade association says
Every little counts and there's so much (expensive) transformation we have to do.
I became aware of this movement for the first time on Friday. The local Green Party branch had a presentation on it.
Take the Jump NZ
It started in the UK and they have supported a group to establish it here. "The project is co-led by the Nelson Tasman Climate Forum with support from the UK Take the Jump team". So far there are regional groups in Nelson Tasman and Wairarapa.
I am just looking through the material but it seems to me like a useful tool to help people make personal changes, especially those who don't know where to start. People sign up to make seven life shifts for at least a month, one of which moving to a mostly plant-based diet, eating mindfully and composting waste. Another is to Change the System acknowledging that "Big improvements to global infrastructure and economic & financial systems are needed: this is the job of governments and big business."
I like the encouraging tone of it and the fact there is advice and support, including on all the usual social media channels.
Even if you can’t keep to it 100% it's still an incredible impact to ‘Take the Jump’ and just do your best. Start with what you can. If all seven feel like too much, start with what you can and build from there. The science is clear we need to start changing things now. So it’s not about being perfect from the start, it's about starting at all.
wow. Even just the front page of their website is exciting and inspiring! Very impressed.
I was impressed too, Weka. The website design is colourful, easy to navigate and engaging.
I am about to sign up to road test it. A friend wants to promote it in our area and I'll help her with that.
It's interesting that the NZ site is subtly different to the UK one. They have six shifts. NZ has added a seventh: Get Planting – Act to preserve and protect Aotearoa's unique biodiversity.
cool, would love to hear how you find their process.
I like it. Honestly was feeling absolutely garbage today about the state of the world, but that's something positive I can take out of the day.
If I get the opportunity I'll feed that back to the folk involved. I'm sure that sort of feedback will encourage them.
In terms of plants some prefer a big temp differential others a more temperate climate. The crops we grow, where and when we grow them will change. We will need to be nimble but people in horticulature are generally very well tuned to the enviroment the biggest risk will be in vested interests lobbying and getting barriers put up already happening with Bannanas.
There is quite alot of happening in the background mainly driven by enthusiasts. We're pretty close on commercially viable Bannana's (not cavendish) Pineapples and we could also do sugarcane in the north which is a bit of a cottage industry atm with local production used in making Rum and other sugar cane spirits and a few others. There are also pretty promising Papaya cultivars and getting close with mangos.
Theres not much help and even resistance to the trail blazers in this regard but if we are serious as a country about doing our bit we need to embrace and support these industries. Every local banana or pineapple we can grow and sell locally saves some pretty horrendous food miles same with the sugar.
yes! This is what I would have hoped from a green government, that government farming support would be refocused within transition consciousness. So many good things we could be doing for growers.
If you are committed to global trade, why would you support local?
I'm not committed to global trade. It appears you don't understand my position or arguments.
I took Cricklewood's comment to be about growing for the NZ market.
Yep, for domestic consumption although sugar cane perhaps has export potential at a boutique level.
The fact that these sub tropical crops are becoming viable here is a real world example of warming in NZ with the real difference being the increased minimum temps and shorter cold temp periods which means the soils are warmer on average. The other factor is the hobbyist / enthusiasts persisting with plants people scoffed out carefully growing from seed and selecting the best specimens over a number of years / generations to get hardier stock.
Yeah, Cricklewood – "The other factor is the hobbyist / enthusiasts persisting with plants people scoffed out (sic) :-)…"
I reckon this is the wild-card that will save us all 🙂 hobbyists/enthusiasts not heedin g conventional wisdom" and instead, doing what inspires them.
Plants are the future and we are being foolish restricting the thinking about them. We, meaning, they 🙂
I didn't mean you, weka, I meant you 🙂
Please try not to personalise the discussion 🙂
How about this: If one is committed to global trade, why would one support local? Sounds a bit tossy, doesn’t it 🙂
I dont think the two are entirely mutually exclusive, just not the current system with either low value high input products which go into industrially processed food etc or highly perishable goods on air freight which just isnt sustainable and overly proccessed crap coming back.
Trading high quality goods which we can produce well and travel by ship are a different kettle of fish.
Plants are our future,in particular the opportunities our temperate climate provides to grow clover and ryegrass to match a dairy cows requirements over a lactation with minimal need for supplement ,expensive housing and cut and carry. My bank recognises that a warming climate in Canterbury will result in more fodder for cows,augmented by irrigation from water storage and that the dairy industry is sustainable.They have dropped my margin on loans by 15 basic points in recognition of these facts. Alternative landuse and an increase in horticulture will happen over time and as in the North Island dairy farmers will be in the thick of it and eager to diversify. Guyton seems to be living in a cave back in the dark ages and I can't figure out why he expects me and my family to join him
You're such a dag, Ian, with your cliches! Good on you: "plants are our future", you proclaim, then you name them: clover and ryegrass! Classic comedy! 2 plants? Is that as far as your aspirations stretch? Clover and ryegrass! Who needs the zillions of other plants! Not the dairy guys, that's for sure 🙂
Mind you, you do add:
"Alternative landuse and an increase in horticulture will happen over time…" which is quite true, only you're thinking decades, where some of us here recognise the hands of the clock are beginning to spin at a pace cockies aren't prepared for.
Big ups to you, for engaging in the discussion, Ian!
Let's see what else you've got.
In this world our competitive advantage is our ability to grow Ryegrass and clover and produce protein for food cheaply and efficiently.With the adoption of modern plant breeding techniques and shortly when the playing field is levelled with the rest of the world I am sure our advantage will improve. Economics dictates landuse not government or fringe ,nutters pushing their wooden wheelbarrows.Next you will be telling me I should plant the farm in plaintain. The only profit coming from that will be the owners of the plant variety rights . The regen guys have all pulled their heads in after the accountant did the books.
Fingers crossed that that the NAF coalition hasn't trashed our trade agreements with their stated intentions to ignore environmental standards
We'll soon see whether the overseas markets have influence over farming practice here in NZ. I came to believe they would but am not certain now. Perhaps people living elsewhere will become so desperate and hungry that they'll disregard how the meat/milk was produced. As well, the farmer-pandering government we are saddled-with presently, will spin the truth of the matter over there, as they are doing here.
In this world?
In this country, our competitive advantage used to be a seemingly-endless supply of tall trees suitable for making ship's masts. Agriculture put pay to that. The climate will do the same to dairying. Our competitive advantage should be flexibility, diversity, long-sightedness and innovation, but we're stuck by greed and fear of change. If the markets don't force change on us, the climate will 🙂
It actually isn't what they have been saying in reality. It was a combination of (I'm paraphrasing)…
The reason why is obvious to anyone with half a brain and who understands the basis of science.
The physics of retained and reflected radiation in a atmosphere of various compositions, especially reflected infrared bands, comes mostly from physics. That is really well understood since the early 19th century. This blog has a good summary of the history on the effects of CO2 in the atmosphere in retaining heat in the upper atmosphere have been measurable since the 1950s.
By the 1970s when I started my degree in earth sciences, we'd moved on from physics to looking at evidence changes in the geological record. My italics
This is what lazy idiots like Damien Grant don't get. It probably doesn't help that he gets his science from someone whose science training is political rather than the real stuff – Bjørn Lomborg. Basically both of them are mindless dickheads who simply have never looked at the science of climate change to even an undergraduate level.
This is Damien Grant in a recent article
Lazy lazy fuckwit fool… For a starter the baseline was way closer to 275ppm than 300ppm. But it isn’t the actual amount, it is the change in effect. What DG should have been looking at was why a world wide drop from 282ppm to 275ppm correlated with annual freezes happening on the Thames after 1600 and until the late 1800s that were unknown in previous centuries.
Teeny changes like levels of insolation trigger glaciations or inter-glacials. That is because everything is teetering at a balance point and effects from one thing cause others to change as well – like sea ice or the production of CO2 from plants. Volcanoes erupting cause CO2 and other gas emissions. It also causes ash clouds. This is also in teeny amounts compared to both in the atmosphere. The exact mixture of this teeny injection over the duration over the can cause measurable effects worldwide within a year and over the course of a decade.
Having continents move into or out of a polar area causes ice ages that last for tens of millions of years. The effect is pretty minor, changes in reflection and a build up of ice, compared to other geological events – the consequences change the whole world for very long periods of time.
Anyway, since the 1980s science has kept trying to figure out what the actual effects have been in the past.
But the geological record has a resolution problem. The further back we look, the more that the detail is lost. We can see solid evidence at a seasonal level – but only for the last hundred years or so (tree rings or lake bed sediments). Annual temperature events back tens of thousands of years (isotopes in ice and deep ocean sea bed cores). Atmosphere in ice core bubbles for a few million with a resolution of about a century dated with argon isotopes.
But outside of the insolation effects, what we have problems with is cause and effect. Nothing that can be seen in the measurable geological evidence shows what happens when ambient level of CO2 is doubled within a century and tripled in 150 years. Or methane goes off the chart.
We simply don't have the resolution or the geological causative effects within recent history (ie over the last 3 million years or so) of a massive increase in the levels of these and other gases. We usually only see the effects of insolation changes – not massive releases of greenhouse gases. What we can see in the distant past with volcanic flood events like the Siberian Traps and Deccan Traps is major changes in climate and mass extinction events. But those took millions of years to happen – not a couple of hundred like we are doing now.
But so far what we are sure of is that each time the IPCC releases a report based on the evidence that has accumulated, the projected results are always worse than they were before. We're always on the worst case scenarios of the previous decade's reports.
I suspect that we're just starting up the curve of effects, and many of them will manifest while I'm still alive. Like really extreme weather, widespread ice melts, and farming and food production under great stress because every season is different.
I still reckon we will be lucky to stay below a 6C average global rise by the end of the century. 2% is a myth.
6C?
Boiled frog.
Most still see it as not keeping it under a 1.5 degree increase and coming to accept a 2 degree one – expecting measures being taken to achieve that.
The "myth" as you call it.
But at least the global warming deniers are quiet – even those funding that cause, such as Charles Koch, now admit they were wrong.
Yet we have to call it climate change, if the Atlantic current goes – we get a very cold north and a very hot south.
There would not be a uniform 2-6 degrees warming.
Yeah. Or even uniform in one place over the seasons. Plus it is the wind and the rain (or lack of it) that is the major issue.
I really don't think that people quite realise just how damn stable the world climate has been for the last 10-20k years. Everything has been gradual and taking centuries. Like the increasing size of the Sahara.
Our entire food production system evolved within the last 12k years. It is utterly dependent on quite static and predictable climate patterns. Our entire civilisation in built on top of agricultural systems that are very sensitive to any climate change , even mild and gradual ones. It is pretty easy to look in the archaeological record and see civilisations dying from minor climate shifts.
But we are working on our way towards having very rapid changes in climate.
Damian Grant? Luckily, the headlines of his Stuff "Opinion" pieces are so ridiculous, that you can smell the bullshit on the other end of the internet. Funny, that Stuff claims they don't allow "Climate Change deniers" but put the piece you've mentioned online.
In my opinion one of the reasons we hit Climate Change milestones quicker than predicted is humans, even experts, can struggle a little with exponential / growth functions. Another one is doing too little too late. To keep within 1.5 or even 2 degrees we probably have to reach net-zero now or at least in the next couple of years, long before 2050. Plus we have to hope we didn't hit too many tipping points yet.
The average of the last 12 months have already been over 1.5 degrees:
Guardian – Tenth consecutive monthly heat record alarms and confounds climate scientists
Sure, the temperatures will go down a little after El Nino… until the next event, when we hit new temperature records.
If we continue hitting temperature records like we do since 1980, there could be El Nino periods over 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels before 2050.
I suspect that we were too late even by the late 1980s to stay in that range by the end or even the middle of this century. When you look at what we now know about the interwoven feedback effects compared to then, the estimates from the 1990s look hopelessly optimistic now.
The problem is that I think is that we are still just looking at the effects we know about. For instance… It isn't the surface temperatures or GG levels we should be worried about.
Most of the heat and the greenhouse gases have been going into the deep ocean currents at the poles and in effect 90+% of greenhouse effects are getting stored in the ocean. Massive buffer, one that we have little idea of how it circulates under even slightly higher temperatures.
We barely understand where the conveyors are now. We only started mapping them worldwide seriously in the 1980s and 1990s. Certainly don't understand the velocities except as a guesstimate. In effect that means we don't really know when or if climate change pulses from the previous decades will resurface.
Probably find out the hard way.
Talk to anyone who understands the state of climate science, and they will effectively say that it is the hidden risk levels of what we don't know that are the major problem.
Ho hum….and on this side of the Tasman, everything's going OK…NOT! Well above average temperatures in the Tasman these last few summer months have been responsible for the fifth major coral bleaching event in recent years. This time it has deeply affected the shallower waters of the southern Barrier Reef, which because it is further south in normally cooler waters has largely escaped the damage to the central and northern reefs up to now. First Dog on the Moon's take on it is that greenwashing won't wash (pun unintended) and only urgent action on climate change will save the GBR and other world reefs, let alone many other key ecosystems vulnerable to atmospheric warming.