What If Trump Wins Again?
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9:25 am, January 14th, 2024 - 65 comments
Categories: China, Donald Trump, Economy, Free Trade, global warming, International, trade, us politics, war -
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One of New Zealand’s best strategic analysts, Dr David Skilling, recently set out the risks we need to prepare for should Donald Trump win the U.S. Presidency again.
As he sets out the obvious reduced United States willingness to provide security guarantees to Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, Dr Skilling also sets out that AUKUS may be renegotiated as Mr Trump seeks to show he is a better negotiator. The North Korean leader will be emboldened to attack Korea. In Europe, a rapidly withdrawing United States military presence would likely force a settlement in Ukraine favouring Russia. Xi and Putin will be delighted.
“In other words, a second Trump Presidency would lead to a substantial reconfiguration of the global economic and geopolitical system – accelerating some dynamics (global economic fragmentation) and reversing others (a coherent Western alliance). These are not implausible events, but simply assume a more disciplined implementation of actions and statements in the first Trump Administration.” – Dr David Skilling, January 12 2024, Substack
A Trump administration withdrawing from NATO would not be easy to achieve. Democratic Senator Tim Kaine and Republican Senator Marco Rubio introduced legislation passed the Senate, designed to block any U.S. president from withdrawing from NATO without two-thirds Senate approval or an act of Congress. Kaine told me he feels “confident that the courts would uphold us on that and would not allow a president to unilaterally withdraw,” but there would certainly be a struggle. A public-relations crisis would unfold too. A wide range of people—former supreme allied commanders, former chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, former presidents, foreign heads of state—will surely rally to make the case for NATO, and very loudly.
For us this signals that just as the European reliance on United States military bases and expenditure has sustained European security for over 80 years and would require continued sustained military expenditure from the EU to ward off Russia, so it is with New Zealand, Japan and Australia. An Australia less protected by the United States would need New Zealand to step up and spend more on its defence capability so that we in turn can protect our own sea lanes for trade (and those of our Pacific neighbours).
Other Trump policy positions would be easier to achieve. Bloomberg analysed truckloads of speeches and videos to distil his policy positions into some clarity.
In international trade, Trump has floated the idea of encircling the whole of U.S. industry with a 10% tariff, which would bring a fresh wave of disruptions to supply chains. If we can recall the impact to New Zealand of massive supply chain disruption across most of our manufacturing and construction base, under Trump prepare for it again.
Trump and Biden have been in lock step when it comes to a hawkish position on trade with China. The question is whether under Trump it will get to the point where New Zealand’s economy is damaged by providing ingredient or component parts for products and services with China, when U.S. trade with China is seriously curtailed with anti-trade legislation even more than it is now.
Sweeping executive orders to restrict immigration look likely if Trump regains the Oval Office, along with an order to end automatic citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants born in the US, though that will likely face legal challenges. “They want to feast off the sweat and savings of the American taxpayer,” Trump said at a rally in November 2023. “We’re not going to let it happen. I will end it all immediately.” Any Kiwi thinking they will still be able to emigrate to the United States should consider their plans carefully.
Trump would spurn Biden’s climate policies via measures that include rescinding energy regulations such as fuel economy and emissions standards. He’d also pull back out of the Paris climate accord, a move he made while in office last time. So the idea of sustaining COP accords would get very hard.
“When I am back in the White House, I will bring back a pro-American energy policy at long last,” Trump said in a video message released in November. If re-elected, he’s promised to remove all obstacles to massively ramping up drilling in the US for oil and natural gas. Another priority: doing away with incentives towards electric vehicles and clean energy.
Dr Skilling and Bloomberg are reminding us that New Zealand’s network of an international rules based trade-focused order that enables the free flow of capital and labour and goods will under Trump quickly crack. This a set of risks that New Zealand businesses should as much as they can prepare for. Sustaining disputes by law rather than by might may also be at risk.
New Zealand has gained prosperity over 40 years within a free flow of trade under peacetime supported by minor attacks to shipping and planes, low international trade costs such as tariffs, and confidence that international trade disputes will be settled by law rather than by might is at risk: all of that required a United States President prepared to support that.
New Zealand itself is remarkably crisis match-fit having gone through serious crises about one every two years for the past two decades. So a Trump II Presidency doesn’t necessarily mean we enter some kind of polycrisis doom loop. It means that business and the New Zealand government must broaden its trade base away from the United States and China far faster than they ever have, accelerate our energy independence into electricity, confirm a broad set of materials supply lines, and prepare to secure our own sea lanes with stronger military capacity than we have now.
Preparing for the worst should be our default position in our trade, our savings, our immigration plans, our defence commitment, and in our relationships other than with the United States.
So New Zealand, prepare.
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The Green Party says the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update shows how the Government is failing to address the massive social and infrastructure deficits our country faces. ...5 days ago
- Release: Visa changes let migrant workers be paid less
The Government’s latest move to reduce the earnings of migrant workers will not only hurt migrants but it will drive down the wages of Kiwi workers. ...5 days ago
- Release: Nightmare before Christmas for Nicola Willis
With more debt and a larger deficit, Nicola Willis’ reputation is in tatters after her failure to return the Government’s books to surplus. ...5 days ago
- Warning to Fast-Track Applicants – ‘Exploit the Whenua, Face the Consequences’
Te Pāti Māori has this morning issued a stern warning to Fast-Track applicants with interests in mining, pledging to hold them accountable through retrospective liability and to immediately revoke Fast-Track consents under a future Te Pāti Māori government. This warning comes ahead of today’s third reading of the Fast-Track Approvals ...5 days ago
- Release: Govt cuts wages for lowest paid NZers… again
For the second year running, the government has effectively cut wages for the lowest paid workers in New Zealand. ...5 days ago
- Govt’s miserly 1.5% minimum wage will take workers backwards
The Government’s announcement today of a 1.5 per cent increase to minimum wage is another blow for workers, with inflation projected to exceed the increase, meaning it’s a real terms pay reduction for many. ...5 days ago
- Release: Govt shirking responsibility for rate hikes
All the Government has achieved from its announcement today is to continue to push responsibility back on councils for its own lack of action to help bring down skyrocketing rates. ...5 days ago
- Luxon’s ‘localism’ strikes again
The Government has used its final post-Cabinet press conference of the year to punch down on local government without offering any credible solutions to the issues our councils are facing. ...5 days ago
- Release: Govt breaks promise on EV chargers
The Government has failed to keep its promise to ‘super charge’ the EV network, delivering just 292 chargers - less than half of the 670 chargers needed to meet its target. ...6 days ago
- Greens call for end to subsidies for Methanex
The Green Party is calling for the Government to stop subsidising the largest user of the country’s gas supplies, Methanex, following a report highlighting the multi-national’s disproportionate influence on energy prices in Aotearoa. ...6 days ago
- Govt child poverty targets allow for increase in poverty
The Green Party is appalled with the Government’s new child poverty targets that are based on a new ‘persistent poverty’ measure that could be met even with an increase in child poverty. ...1 week ago
- Release: Four weeks annual leave under threat
The Government’s attack on workers continues with news it is scrapping work on the Holidays Act. ...1 week ago
- Govt’s emissions plan for measly 1% reduction
New independent analysis has revealed that the Government’s Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP) will reduce emissions by a measly 1 per cent by 2030, failing to set us up for the future and meeting upcoming targets. ...1 week ago
- Greens stand in solidarity with Whakaata Māori on sad day
The loss of 27 kaimahi at Whakaata Māori and the end of its daily news bulletin is a sad day for Māori media and another step backwards for Te Tiriti o Waitangi justice. ...1 week ago
- Sanctions regime to create more hardship for families
Yesterday the Government passed cruel legislation through first reading to establish a new beneficiary sanction regime that will ultimately mean more households cannot afford the basic essentials. ...1 week ago
- Govt gifts renters housing anxiety for Christmas
Today's passing of the Government's Residential Tenancies Amendment Bill–which allows landlords to end tenancies with no reason–ignores the voice of the people and leaves renters in limbo ahead of the festive season. ...1 week ago
- Release: National Party urged to support modern slavery legislation
Labour is urging the Prime Minister to walk the talk and support legislation combating modern slavery. ...1 week ago
- Release: Labour has lost confidence in the Speaker
The Speaker of the New Zealand Parliament made an unprecedented decision on the government amendment to the Fast Track Approvals Bill last night. ...1 week ago
- One year on, still no progress on new ferries
Today’s announcement from the Government on its plan for new ferries throws more uncertainty on the future of the country’s rail network. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Nicola Willis’ smaller ferries will cost more
After wasting a year, Nicola Willis has delivered a worse deal for the Cook Strait ferries that will end up being more expensive and take longer to arrive. ...2 weeks ago
- Bill to sanction unlawful occupation of Palestine
Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick has today launched a Member’s Bill to sanction Israel for its unlawful presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, as the All Out For Gaza rally reaches Parliament. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour fully supports greyhound racing ban
The Government has done the right thing in moving to ban greyhound racing. ...2 weeks ago
- Greyhound racing industry ban marks new era for animal welfare
After years of advocacy, the Green Party is very happy to hear the Government has listened to our collective voices and announced the closure of the greyhound racing industry, by 1 August 2026. ...2 weeks ago
- Rangatahi voices must be centred in Government’s Relationship and Sexuality Education refresh
In response to a new report from ERO, the Government has acknowledged the urgent need for consistency across the curriculum for Relationship and Sexuality Education (RSE) in schools. ...2 weeks ago
- Govt introduces archaic anti-worker legislation
The Green Party is appalled at the Government introducing legislation that will make it easier to penalise workers fighting for better pay and conditions. ...2 weeks ago
- Winston Peters – Kinleith Mill Speech
Thank you for the invitation to speak with you tonight on behalf of the political party I belong to - which is New Zealand First. As we have heard before this evening the Kinleith Mill is proposing to reduce operations by focusing on pulp and discontinuing “lossmaking paper production”. They say that they are currently consulting on the plan to permanently shut ...2 weeks ago - Swarbrick calls on Auckland Mayor to end delay of revival of St James Theatre
Auckland Central MP, Chlöe Swarbrick, has written to Mayor Wayne Brown requesting he stop the unnecessary delays on St James Theatre’s restoration. ...2 weeks ago
- He Ara Anamata: Greens launch Emissions Reduction Plan
Today, the Green Party of Aotearoa proudly unveils its new Emissions Reduction Plan–He Ara Anamata–a blueprint reimagining our collective future. ...2 weeks ago
- PM appoints business leader to APEC Business Advisory Council
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has appointed Sarah Ottrey to the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). “At my first APEC Summit in Lima, I experienced firsthand the role that ABAC plays in guaranteeing political leaders hear the voice of business,” Mr Luxon says. “New Zealand’s ABAC representatives are very well respected and ...2 days ago - New intelligence oversight appointments
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced four appointments to New Zealand’s intelligence oversight functions. The Honourable Robert Dobson KC has been appointed Chief Commissioner of Intelligence Warrants, and the Honourable Brendan Brown KC has been appointed as a Commissioner of Intelligence Warrants. The appointments of Hon Robert Dobson and Hon ...2 days ago
- New housing developments able to progress more quickly
Improvements in the average time it takes to process survey and title applications means housing developments can progress more quickly, Minister for Land Information Chris Penk says. “The government is resolutely focused on improving the building and construction pipeline,” Mr Penk says. “Applications to issue titles and subdivide land are ...2 days ago
- Actions to speed up air travel delivering results
The Government’s measures to reduce airport wait times, and better transparency around flight disruptions is delivering encouraging early results for passengers ahead of the busy summer period, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Improving the efficiency of air travel is a priority for the Government to give passengers a smoother, more reliable ...2 days ago
- Ending contracted emergency housing in Rotorua
The Government today announced the intended closure of the Apollo Hotel as Contracted Emergency Housing (CEH) in Rotorua, Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka says. This follows a 30 per cent reduction in the number of households in CEH in Rotorua since National came into Government. “Our focus is on ending CEH in the Whakarewarewa area starting ...2 days ago
- Vocational education and training decisions support return to regions
The Government will reshape vocational education and training to return decision making to regions and enable greater industry input into work-based learning Tertiary Education and Skills Minister, Penny Simmonds says. “The redesigned system will better meet the needs of learners, industry, and the economy. It includes re-establishing regional polytechnics that ...2 days ago
- Reducing the environmental impact of synthetic refrigerants
The Government is taking action to better manage synthetic refrigerants and reduce emissions caused by greenhouse gases found in heating and cooling products, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds says. “Regulations will be drafted to support a product stewardship scheme for synthetic refrigerants, Ms. Simmonds says. “Synthetic refrigerants are found in a ...2 days ago
- Ngāruawāhia section of Waikato Expressway back to 4 lanes for Christmas
People travelling on State Highway 1 north of Hamilton will be relieved that remedial works and safety improvements on the Ngāruawāhia section of the Waikato Expressway were finished today, with all lanes now open to traffic, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“I would like to acknowledge the patience of road users ...2 days ago
- Appointments to the ENZ board
Tertiary Education and Skills Minister, Penny Simmonds, has announced a new appointment to the board of Education New Zealand (ENZ). Dr Erik Lithander has been appointed as a new member of the ENZ board for a three-year term until 30 January 2028. “I would like to welcome Dr Erik Lithander to the ...3 days ago
- Government to celebrate Waitangi Day around NZ
The Government will have senior representatives at Waitangi Day events around the country, including at the Waitangi Treaty Grounds, but next year Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has chosen to take part in celebrations elsewhere. “It has always been my intention to celebrate Waitangi Day around the country with different ...3 days ago
- More gangs added to Gangs Act list
Two more criminal gangs will be subject to the raft of laws passed by the Coalition Government that give Police more powers to disrupt gang activity, and the intimidation they impose in our communities, Police Minister Mark Mitchell says. Following an Order passed by Cabinet, from 3 February 2025 the ...3 days ago
- Judicial appointment announced
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Justice Christian Whata as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Whata’s appointment as a Judge of the Court of Appeal will take effect on 1 August 2025 and fill a vacancy created by the retirement of Hon Justice David Goddard on ...3 days ago
- GDP data highlights importance of growth
The latest economic figures highlight the importance of the steps the Government has taken to restore respect for taxpayers’ money and drive economic growth, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. Data released today by Stats NZ shows Gross Domestic Product fell 1 per cent in the September quarter. “Treasury and most ...3 days ago
- Strengthening Free Speech in Universities
Tertiary Education and Skills Minister Penny Simmonds and Associate Minister of Education David Seymour today announced legislation changes to strengthen freedom of speech obligations on universities. “Freedom of speech is fundamental to the concept of academic freedom and there is concern that universities seem to be taking a more risk-averse ...3 days ago
- Launch of Emergency Cellular Priority Service
Police Minister, Mark Mitchell, and Internal Affairs Minister, Brooke van Velden, today launched a further Public Safety Network cellular service that alongside last year’s Cellular Roaming roll-out, puts globally-leading cellular communications capability into the hands of our emergency responders. The Public Safety Network’s new Cellular Priority service means Police, Wellington ...3 days ago
- Minister reopens Mangamuka Gorge
State Highway 1 through the Mangamuka Gorge has officially reopened today, providing a critical link for Northlanders and offering much-needed relief ahead of the busy summer period, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“The Mangamuka Gorge is a vital route for Northland, carrying around 1,300 vehicles per day and connecting the Far ...3 days ago
- Funding confirmed for second Ashburton Bridge
The Government has welcomed decisions by the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) and Ashburton District Council confirming funding to boost resilience in the Canterbury region, with construction on a second Ashburton Bridge expected to begin in 2026, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Delivering a second Ashburton Bridge to improve resilience and ...3 days ago
- Government boosts support for avian influenza response
The Government is backing the response into high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Otago, Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard says. “Cabinet has approved new funding of $20 million to enable MPI to meet unbudgeted ongoing expenses associated with the H7N6 response including rigorous scientific testing of samples at the enhanced PC3 ...3 days ago
- Levelling the playing field for media advertising
Legislation that will repeal all advertising restrictions for broadcasters on Sundays and public holidays has passed through first reading in Parliament today, Media Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “As a growing share of audiences get their news and entertainment from streaming services, these restrictions have become increasingly redundant. New Zealand on ...4 days ago
- Inspector-General of Defence appointed
Today the House agreed to Brendan Horsley being appointed Inspector-General of Defence, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “Mr Horsley’s experience will be invaluable in overseeing the establishment of the new office and its support networks. “He is currently Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security, having held that role since June 2020. ...4 days ago
- Fire and Emergency New Zealand final levy rates confirmed
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government has agreed to the final regulations for the levy on insurance contracts that will fund Fire and Emergency New Zealand from July 2026. “Earlier this year the Government agreed to a 2.2 percent increase to the rate of levy. Fire ...4 days ago
- More AML relief on the way for Kiwi businesses
The Government is delivering regulatory relief for New Zealand businesses through changes to the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act. “The Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Amendment Bill, which was introduced today, is the second Bill – the other being the Statutes Amendment Bill - that ...4 days ago
- Hawke’s Bay Expressway moving at pace
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed further progress on the Hawke’s Bay Expressway Road of National Significance (RoNS), with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) Board approving funding for the detailed design of Stage 1, paving the way for main works construction to begin in late 2025.“The Government is moving at ...4 days ago
- Government seeks partnerships to plant trees on Crown-owned-land
The Government today released a request for information (RFI) to seeking interest in partnerships to plant trees on Crown-owned land with low farming and conservation value (excluding National Parks) Forestry Minister Todd McClay announced. “Planting trees on Crown-owned land will drive economic growth by creating more forestry jobs in our regions, providing more wood ...4 days ago
- Wide ranging legislation to make justice system more efficient
Court timeliness, access to justice, and improving the quality of existing regulation are the focus of a series of law changes introduced to Parliament today by Associate Minister of Justice Nicole McKee. The three Bills in the Regulatory Systems (Justice) Amendment Bill package each improve a different part of the ...4 days ago
- Diverse skills in community trust appointments
A total of 41 appointments and reappointments have been made to the 12 community trusts around New Zealand that serve their regions, Associate Finance Minister Shane Jones says. “These trusts, and the communities they serve from the Far North to the deep south, will benefit from the rich experience, knowledge, ...4 days ago
- Torture redress for survivors of the Lake Alice Unit
The Government has confirmed how it will provide redress to survivors who were tortured at the Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital Child and Adolescent Unit (the Lake Alice Unit). “The Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care found that many of the 362 children who went through the Lake Alice Unit between 1972 and ...4 days ago
- A busy year in the House
It has been a busy, productive year in the House as the coalition Government works hard to get New Zealand back on track, Leader of the House Chris Bishop says. “This Government promised to rebuild the economy, restore law and order and reduce the cost of living. Our record this ...4 days ago
- Consultation opens on working with engineered stone
“Accelerated silicosis is an emerging occupational disease caused by unsafe work such as engineered stone benchtops. I am running a standalone consultation on engineered stone to understand what the industry is currently doing to manage the risks, and whether further regulatory intervention is needed,” says Workplace Relations and Safety Minister ...4 days ago
- Greater reporting on Treaty settlement commitments
Mehemea he pai mō te tangata, mahia – if it’s good for the people, get on with it. Enhanced reporting on the public sector’s delivery of Treaty settlement commitments will help improve outcomes for Māori and all New Zealanders, Māori Crown Relations Minister Tama Potaka says. Compiled together for the ...4 days ago
- New appointments to the Charities Registration Board
Mr Roger Holmes Miller and Ms Tarita Hutchinson have been appointed to the Charities Registration Board, Community and Voluntary Sector Minister Louise Upston says. “I would like to welcome the new members joining the Charities Registration Board. “The appointment of Ms Hutchinson and Mr Miller will strengthen the Board’s capacity ...4 days ago
- Building consent processing times improve
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- Faster access to support through Innovation Fund
Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey is proud to announce the first three recipients of the Government’s $10 million Mental Health and Addiction Community Sector Innovation Fund which will enable more Kiwis faster access to mental health and addiction support. “This fund is part of the Government’s commitment to investing in ...4 days ago
- New Zealand to assist Vanuatu on earthquake response
New Zealand is providing Vanuatu assistance following yesterday's devastating earthquake, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. "Vanuatu is a member of our Pacific family and we are supporting it in this time of acute need," Mr Peters says. "Our thoughts are with the people of Vanuatu, and we will be ...4 days ago
- Government takes steps to reduce card fees for Kiwis
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- Review recommends ECE regulation shakeup
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- Offshore Renewable Energy Bill passes first reading
The Government‘s Offshore Renewable Energy Bill to create a new regulatory regime that will enable firms to construct offshore wind generation has passed its first reading in Parliament, Energy Minister Simeon Brown says.“New Zealand currently does not have a regulatory regime for offshore renewable energy as the previous government failed ...4 days ago
- Local Government (Water Services) Bill passes first reading
Legislation to enable new water service delivery models that will drive critical investment in infrastructure has passed its first reading in Parliament, marking a significant step towards the delivery of Local Water Done Well, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly say.“Councils and voters ...4 days ago
- Gene Technology Bill passes first reading
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- New Zealand ratifies AANZFTA Upgrade
New Zealand has ratified the Upgrade to the Agreement establishing the ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Area (AANZFTA), Minister for Trade Todd McClay announced today. “ASEAN which is comprised of Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, is New Zealand’s fourth largest trading partner in two-way trade – ...4 days ago
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Asia Pacific Report “It looks like Hiroshima. It looks like Germany at the end of World War Two,” says an Israeli-American historian and professor of holocaust and genocide studies at Brown University about the horrifying reality of Gaza. Professor Omer Bartov, has described Israel’s ongoing war on Gaza as an ...3 hours ago - NZ govt plans to make ‘heavy handed’ change to free speech rules for universities
The New Zealand government coalition is tweaking university regulations to curb what it says is an increasingly “risk-averse approach” to free speech. The proposed changes will set clear expectations on how universities should approach freedom of speech issues. Each university will then have to adopt a “freedom of speech statement” ...3 hours ago
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The roads partnership unravelled under a confidential settlement this week, meaning NZTA will now finish off what it had said was incomplete work. ...21 hours ago
- Funding cuts to charity particularly felt over Christmas period
The number of people seeking help from Lifeline is expected to increase by 10 to 20 percent over Christmas. ...23 hours ago
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A handful of foreign diplomats have misbehaved during their time here - and not all of them have been brought to justice. ...1 day ago
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Trump would demand NZ and Australia become dictatorial fascist states just like what Putin is doing to former soviet controlled countries and dependencies like Cuba , Venezuela, Hungary 'Assad Syria the Yemen, Iran, North Korea and it's close ally China.
We would have someone like the Reversnd Brian Tamaski installed another Malignant Narcissistic fwit.
Donate to the democrats influence any US voter the only chance we have.
Democracies are in the worst danger since Hitler came to power.
Many New Zealanders support Trump.
They believe he’s the voice of reason.
I enjoy watching the ‘out in the field’ interviews at Trump rallies. When questioned about why and how Trump is so great, how he is the ‘voice of reason,’ his supporters are quite entertaining.
They all know how wonderful he is, how brilliant, and how he has done all these amazing things for America. When it gets down to “What do you mean” and “Explain that,” they’re not so good. The “But that happened under Obama,” only sometimes flummoxes them.
In that sense, here and in the US he is seen as the voice of reason whatever that voice is saying. And in that sense it is a cult. Whatever he says is gospel.
Trouble is, Robert, look at the alternative to Trump. Is Biden, or Schumer, or any of the other "Democratic" Party leaders either reasonable or moral?
Biden is more moral and more reasonable than Trump. By a long measure.
The US doesn't get third party choices because their system is FPP.
Biden is more moral and more reasonable than Trump. By a long measure.
In what way could Trump's conduct possibly be worse than Biden's conduct during this genocidal rampage in Gaza?
As terrible as Trump is, how is Biden in any way better, leave alone "by a long measure"?
🙄
Now I agree that Biden needs to stop the export of war material to Israel immediately, but if you were to actually open your eyes to what Biden has attempted to do within the US for ordinary citizens – but largely thwarted by a republican dominated house/senate you would see that he is vastly different to that buffoon Trump.
Quite right, Macro, Biden and the Democrats at least have a notional commitment to the public good—in the United States if nowhere else—while the Repugs, both the Trump Repugs and the Never-Trump Repugs, are a purely destructive organization. Noam Chomsky several years ago said the Republican Party is the most dangerous organization in the world today.
My problem with Biden and every single one of his political colleagues and advisers is the point you mentioned first: his failure to "stop the export of war material to Israel immediately."
There you go, it wasn't that hard.
Note, Ad, that the Democratic Party's commitment to workers is notional only. They're still dominated by the likes of Charles Schumer, who came up with the brilliant notion in 2016 that Hillary Clinton didn't need working people's votes, and should target donations from Wall Street instead.
Very bad move.
Note, Ad, that the Democratic Party's commitment to workers is notional only.
I believe he is recognizing that in order to maintain USA's economic dominance he has to reestablish its manufacturing base, which, decades ago was handed over to China and other low wage countries. That's probably the reason for his apparent favouring of the workers.
Biden favouring the workers by telling them to go back to work 😂😂😂
given you are posting with a pseudonym, if your email address is genuine, I suggest next time you comment you use a fake one (which is fine to do on The Standard).
"Biden is moral and reasonable than Trump"….this is actually said without the slightest flinch, about the primary enabeler of the most violent, brutal, disgusting genocide….and not after the fact, while it is still actually happening…how many children, men and woman do you think will die today Ad? …because of Biden and the Democrats..and not Trump.
Here is your morality in full display….
‘Not seen since Vietnam’: Israel dropped hundreds of 2,000-pound bombs on Gaza, analysis shows
https://edition.cnn.com/gaza-israel-big-bombs/index.html
…these are just a small part of the munitions rushed to Israel. by Biden… and you still offer this moralless cover for a party of murders..I mean this seriously, what the fuck is wrong with you liberal's?….the way you people torture and flay the skin off logic, right out in the open, to somehow make the sick fantasy that a moral Western democratic world even exists in your own heads, even in the face of what everyone in the world can see and read in broad daylight is astounding, and shocks the senses…..
Trump the Republician Party, Biden and the Democratic Party are both one in the same as far as Geo-Politics go….the scourge of the entire planet, there will never be peace while these bloodless goons remain the hegemony…..
When one reads your comments and cuts away all the froth…what you are left with is defending a ongoing genocide, defending the violent, undemocratic iron fist of Western hegemony, because it is supposedly good for world trade and most especially for people like you and your class.
Trump and Biden agreed on leaving the women of Afghanistan to their fate.
They are both messing with the WTO, one as an isolationist, the other as pro American worker.
They have a similar at arms length with China approach, with an American industrial revival aspect.
But Biden actually ended the bombing of Yemen of SA and facilitated a truce within Yemen (to enable aid and deal with a famine). This lead to China brokering Iran and SA talks.
One takes GW seriously, the other not so.
Biden's diplomacy as per Israel in Gaza is most likely firmer than Trump's would have been (who was the most pro Israeli POTUS in history).
Trump is less likely to support aid to Ukraine and thus expect the EU to carry the burden or take in Ukrainian refugees. If the GOP blocks supply in the House, the difference is insignificant.
Neither has a policy to manage the South Korea, Taiwan and South China Sea issues of our region – thus the regional arms build-up.
Maybe Trumpian US military support withdrawal has any bearing on Gaza – but I doubt it – and indeed so does Netanyahu as of yesterday's statement.
How might one measure the use of the US as a military threat? On balance how many regional wars across the world one would expect to occur as a result of that?
Regions at risk of civil and then international war in a major US withdrawal would be:
– Strait of Hormuz, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Gulf States, and its primary oil access for the whole of Asia and Oceania
– Taiwan, Japan, China
– South Korea, North Korea, China
– Iraq, Turkey, Syria
– Golan Heights, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt
– Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, Ukraine, Moldova,
– Philippines, China, Vietnam, Malaysia
One might ask how much worse it can get.
The answer is: very very very much worse.
You are quite mad.
It's not just me thinking like this.
https://www.politico.eu/article/can-europe-survive-trump-ii/
“It’s a form of sleepwalking,” said Ulrich Speck, a foreign policy analyst based in Berlin. “We have [French President Emmanuel] Macron’s form of sleepwalking, which dreams of autonomy and sovereignty. We have German sleepwalking, which is denial. And then we have British sleepwalking, which is detachment.”
And we have Oceania sleepwalking, which is Chinese cash helps us sleep.
US Imperialism remains the lead enforcer and enabler for Capital and international Finance Capital. There is no good spin that can be put on that.
You call it spin when it's the measure of how the world already rotates.
Ulrich Speck. He sounds like he could be related to Richard Speck.
"It's not just me thinking like this"…..this is the best your thinking partner can offer on Gaza…
"Many are calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. Haven't seen any calls on Hamas to surrender."
Maybe you need to find yourself a slightly smarter 'thinking' buddy there pal.
It's interesting that you both use sleepwalking as your analogy…..you obviously don't or more likely can't see yourself, that to still regard western hegemony as the higher form of world rule at this point in history, could only be maintained by remaining every day in some sort of strange daydream state of unreality yourself.
Thanks for that, Adrian. My hunch was correct, it seems: Herr Speck might well be an incarnation of Richard Speck.
What double speak.
What on-going genocide?
It uses a pretence of a class basis for rejecting collective security (as per Ukraine) when led by a coalition of democratic nations.
But no problem with the Vietnam level bombing on urban centres of Syria by the Russians in favour of a one party rule continuance in an internal civil war.
World trade is practiced by parties who want it.
Biden may be more moral than Trump. And yes a Trump administration will be worse than a Biden administration. But genocide can not be forgiven. And Biden and the Democrats will be punished for it.
The question for this country's politicians, 5 Eyes military and intelligence leaders, will be will we continue blindly following behind the dystopian neo-fascist Trump administration as we have blindly followed behind every other US administration since the end of the British Empire as the world hegemon?
Or will we; Instead of kowtowing and forelock tugging to the biggest bullies on the planet, chart a more independent foreign policy?
https://www.teaonews.co.nz/2023/02/09/maori-party-adopts-swiss-neutrality-policy/
confidence that international trade disputes will be settled by law rather than by might is at risk: all of that required a United States President prepared to support that.
A U.S. President prepared to support international law? If that were ever the case, then we would not have had the six decade long illegal blockade of Cuba, nor the undermining and destruction of democratic governments from Haiti to Brazil.
Neither would the U.S. have spent the last seventy years funding Nazi groups like the Azov Brigade in Ukraine and honouring the memory of collaborators like Stepan Bandera, and genocidal regimes in Saudi Arabia and Israel.
A U.S. President prepared to support international law? Which one was that again?
The one that has propped up the UN and all its components institutions with massive funding and diplomatic support for 7 decades.
Also the one that enabled GATT from which our dairy experts flourished.
Also until Trump supported international trade dispute resolution, which we have done very well from.
If you're grumpy about Brazil, Brazil are doing fine.
You'll only notice US absence if Trump gets in unrestrained. Cuba will be but a wry smile.
If you're grumpy about Brazil, Brazil are doing fine.
No thanks to the United States.
Brazil exports US$75.7 billion per year to the US and its going up fast. No trade isdue except upside.
The only issue in the last decade was dealng with the Trumpist Bolsonaro. But sure you're likely to get more autocratic in Brazil and elsewhere if Trump gets in.
The Washington regime was relentless in its rhetorical and diplomatic onslaught against the democratic governments of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and of Dilma Rousseff. Washington was unwavering in its support of the Temer coup regime which ushered Bolsonaro's horrific reign.
Dilma Rousseff was even in South America's standards one of the most corrupt politicians we've yet seen, and was appropriately chucked out for being essentially bought and sold by Petrobras. That didn't need any help from the US.
US-Brazil relations have been excellent since 1995 and has been a strong ally since 2019. Clinton loved Cardoso. Bush 1 loved Cardoso. Bush 1 was annoyed by Lula, but Bush 2 loved him. Obama adored Lula. Trump loved Bolsonaro. Biden loves Lula.
No shortage of love for several decades, with appropriate ups and downs for an independent country with its more neutral international relations particularly as a BRICS member.
Your broadside against the democratically elected Dilma Rousseff and your rehearsal of those entirely specious right wing talking points could have come straight from a Bolsonaro, or a Temer, speech.
US-Brazil relations have been excellent since 1995….
U.S. government relationships with Brazilian governments were strong after the U.S, military dictatorship it helped to install in 1964. The U.S. political establishment was startled and affronted by the election of Lula in 2003, just as they were by the elections of democratic governments around the same time in Bolivia, Venezuela, and Ecuador.
You claim that Obama "adored Lula." Lula himself did not agree. Even the dependably servile to power Grauniad had to admit that….
You've gone in 3 paragraphs from "the undermining and destruction of democratic governments from Haiti to Brazil" …
… to "Lula himself did not agree" about liking Obama as much as Obama liked him. It just turns you into a trite schoolyard US-hate-reflex. Please.
Rousseff was part of the largest corruption case in South America. She stank. She went down for it. Lula himself was sent to jail for corruption, and after several years in jail his case was only quashed not because of lack of evidence but because the convicting court lacked the correct jurisdiction. There's whole books on it; not just the "Car Wash" scandal but also the corruption of office itself.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-35810578
Don't ever try and make out that South American politicians are somehow more innocent than US politicians. They ain't. Even if they are left leaning.
Now you can check out which trade institution the US didn't essentially create, which have in total stabilised world trade to the direct benefit of New Zealand:
The entire political economy of world trade is predicated on US structural funding and presence.
In trying to bolster your charge against Dilma Roussef, you have not made a wise choice by quoting the notoriously biased British state media organ. Its coverage of Dilma Roussef was, and is, about as fair and ethical as its treatment of Jeremy Corbyn and Julian Assange.
Don't ever try and make out that South American politicians are somehow more innocent than US politicians. They ain't.
That is quite correct, in the case of the South American politicians that the US armed and diplomatically and militarily supported—Trujillo, Pinochet, Galtieri, and the democracy-hating lunatics in the Venezuelan extreme right.
Even if they are left leaning.
No, the left leaning politicians are all democratically elected. They got there because they were popular, unlike the monsters foisted on them by Washington.
The term for Rouseff's crimes are called "fiscal pedalling". The sources are numerous if you don't like the BBC. She was Chairwomen of Petrobras from 2003 to 2010. Some of those years at the same time as running Lula's office.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Dilma_Rousseff#:~:text=In%202011%20and%202014%2C%20Rousseff's,an%20example%20of%20fiscal%20pedaling.
Maybe you prefer The Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2016/aug/31/dilma-rousseff-impeachment-brazil-what-you-need-to-know
Or Al Jazeera.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/9/6/rousseff-lula-charged-in-petrobras-corruption-probe
Or Reuters.
https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1BH00T/
Failing that read the books. There's multiple of them to go into the detail. Or the case notes themselves. Really not that hard.
And disabuse yourself of the idea that the left are less corrupt than the right. They just have better policies on average.
… if you don't like the BBC
It's not that I don't like the BBC. I loved Dad's Army and all those Dennis Potter dramas, and Pennies From Heaven, and The Glittering Prizes. The Beeb used to do some brilliant documentaries as well: an outstanding one I remember was Alan Yentob's thoughtful and exhilarating series on modern architecture.
The part of the BBC I don't like is their thoroughly discredited political wing. They bowed to Thatcher's demand in the 1980s to silence Sinn Fein spokespeople and have actors speaking their words instead. Their disgracefully biased coverage of the latest Israeli onslaught in Gaza is just the latest example of its craven submission to power. The great Tony Benn, one of the few British politicians with integrity, called them on their cowardice in 2009…
"The one that has propped up the UN and all its components institutions with massive funding and diplomatic support for 7 decades."
The one that will soon be rewarded for this massive funding investment, when the UN International Court of Justice delivers a grotesque judgement in favour of Israel continuing its genocidal war against the civilian population of Gaza.
The three headed hydra confabulation has no contingency fund to respond to emergency (climate change related) events
Auckland Super City – floods this year (what do comms do and when)?
Wellington Trains on too good a summers day?
What Cook Strait bridge (floods in the north could na get SI vegetables across the bridge)?
We’ve survived stuff because we do not plan to prevent …consequences of heavy trucks on roads, allow low bid bus contracts and wonder why we do not have enough bus drivers,
Western Auckland had been preparing for flooding for three decades and still got smashed: Project Twin Streams had stabilised and increased floodplain capacity but nowhere near enough. East Coast got smashed for nearly a year and would have been the case no matter what they'd done.
Then again it is already a known about how much there was to work on.
Link, after link, after link.
https://newsroom.co.nz/2023/05/23/aucklands-anti-flooding-plan-now-on-steroids/
https://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/local-news/300891625/auckland-council-in-talks-on-moving-floodprone-roads-to-safer-ground
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/auckland-floods-tens-of-thousands-of-homes-across-auckland-prone-to-floods-water-and-wastewater-constraints-and-coastal-erosion/WI735MJYGVA6VBLQBPDO2YDVLI/
https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/17-02-2023/why-do-we-still-build-homes-on-flood-plains
https://www.auckland.ac.nz/en/news/2023/01/31/smarter-design-to-mitigate-auckland-floods.html
https://ourauckland.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/media/je3potln/auckland-flood-response-review_january-27-29-2023.pdf
There sure is plenty to do in Auckland, agreed.
He will cite the winter under Joe Biden, as reason to isolate the US from global warming action, saying America is the land of exceptionalism.
https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/01/14/ferocious-us-winter-weather-could-see-low-temperature-records-set/
These sort of events you would think would change people's minds but it seems to do the opposite.
People turn inwards and don't work as a community to fix the problems but rather go I am OK Jack forget about the rest.
So that feeds into Authoritarianism.
U.S. carbon emissions shrank in 2023 for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic. Last year, U.S. greenhouse gas pollution from energy and industrial activities fell by 1.9% despite the economy growing by about 2.4%. To put that into perspective: in 2023, the U.S. emitted as much carbon as it did in 1991, when the economy was about a quarter of its current size.
https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/good-news-bad-news-us-emissions-shrank-last-year-slowly-rcna132932
Had Biden got the support for his Build Back Better plan in the early years of this current administration, there would have been even more progress made on the climate front.
Blame Manchin for that
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4302952-five-times-joe-manchin-changed-climate-policy-senate/
I'm in the middle of a book on how far we have come in such a short space of time to address climate change. I'll do a review of its optimistic tone once I'm done but it's a useful corrective to the usual doom lop.
There's no what if's, Trump WILL win this year. Trump wont just win, he'll win the popular vote this time if Bidens on the ticket the democrats are going to be obliterated
Biden is lowest polling first term president in history.
Trump beats Biden with voters 30, independents, Latinos and Bidens lead with black voters is dissolving
Bidens age is one of the top 3 concerns of all voters.
Americans of all ethnicities and ages don't wanna fund Ukraine or Israel's military or pay for illegal immigrants and refugees while their services get cut in funding, they keep saying this and Democrats just cold heartedly screw over their voters
The economy is really bad for ordinary people and that's all that matters.
The dems are gonna lose all three houses.
Best President the Yanks never had was “Boynie” Sanders thanks to the DNC and collusion on the campaign trail in the Democratic primaries and Candidates like Mayor Pete and Elizabeth Warren with their staged withdrawals that helped elevate Joe from initial also ran.
AOC just qualifies by age to stand but the DNC would not go there! And Alexandria was badly shaken by Jan 6, narrowly escaping death in her office. Biden is a major impediment for the Democrats and voters.
Trump should be in a cell not the White House, and would only win by default.
" thanks to the DNC and collusion on the campaign trail in the Democratic primaries"
Laughable nonsense very similar to Trumps denialism that he lost the election. Other candidates withdraw from the primaries all the time, always about no money coming in. Winnowing down to last 2 or 3 is how its supposed to work
Warren pulled out because she lost in her home state – to Biden
Look at the votes cast in the primaries , which the DNC cant 'manipulate' LOL
Clinton 16.9 mill
Sanders 13.2 mill
But no doubt any evidence to the contrary to you is proof of the opposite conspiracy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2016_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries
Unemployment is low and wage growth is strongest at the low end, thus less wage inequality. Inflation is going down, without a recession.
The GOP is using the term Bidenomics as a negative, leading many to presume a recession, high unemployment and inflation is getting worse – and yet none of that is true.
It's nearly a year to go until the election, and any polling is entirely based on a theoretical Trump vs a theoretical Biden as neither is their party's nominee yet.
It'd be wise to take those numbers with a large dose of salt.
Yes, Biden has some problems. Some of them related to perceptions around his age. Others around the average voters' feelings about the economy.
But people also said his primary campaign was doomed, and now he's president. A lot can happen in 10ish months.
Turnout is king–a huge non vote, FPP/skewed electoral Collage, and voter suppression/gerrymandering are three complicating factors in US Elections.
According to various polls on women's health, minimum wage rise, union & gay rights etc. MAGA supporters are in the minority now, but, they do tend to vote like Natzos and boomers here.
It is way too soon to pick. Trump could yet get an orange jumpsuit, or Joe Biden drop out etc.
Yes.
Turnout was high in 2020 – easier mail voting. Woman sometimes have issues with voting on a working day – family, work and queues. About half the states have the vote on a working day.
Gerrymandering allows the GOP to get a House majority on a minority of the vote.
Biden's burned off almost all support from young people, and indeed any older person with a conscience.
America is a country of immigrants, with the exception of the locals that were already there when the now established immigrants recently arrived. Americans aren't "paying for illegal immigrants" because the border is not an open free for all. This is a tired trope. No social security number = no medicaid, no welfare, and no federal benefits. So what exactly are Americans paying for with this mythical boogeyman? Visa-mandated labour goes through the appropriately regulated channels and is not illegal. Have you had your place at Harvard triaged for an illegal immigrant, or your application to investment via a hedge fund 86'd by a refugee family because of affirmative action? Come on…
There's still some hope he won't.
New poll shows Nikki Haley could beat Biden by more than Trump (msn.com)
And now this very weird reason – an ad hominem attack to which Trump might be especially susceptible.
Will Americans Vote for a Man Who Is Now Widely Reported to Exude a Rancid Odor?
I remember reading about the conservative tendency to be more easily disgusted – be strange if it came back to bite Trump.
I knew there was a certain 'stench' around Trump, but that is all too weird.
Remember that dread feeling you had in November 2016? Get ready to feel that way all over again this November…
Dread? Not really. Despite my feelings about Trump, I had a sense of relief that the US dodged having Hillary Clinton as President.
It was the classic choice between two evils. Or perhaps it was Demonstably Evil versus Insane Clown.
https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/matt-taibbi/insane-clown-president/
Yep. There are some quality people in the US political scene, but apparently none of them mad or corrupt enough to be elected president.
https://youtu.be/H3zN4-n8ZWg?si=UtJ_MKIfhTpLxZW8
BTW Ad…here is the type of person you seem to be happy to align yourself with in the defense of NATO….but then again brutal illegal sanctions in service of Western interests never seem to bother the Liberal Imperialist class conscious….as it turns out, nothing much does.
Countries dropping dollar neutralizes US sanctions, complains neocon Marco Rubio
"China and Brazil signed an agreement to de-dollarize their trade and use local currencies. US politicians like neoconservative Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio are furious, because it means they can no longer destroy countries' economies with illegal unilateral sanctions"
Rubio is a truly repellent individual, as well as profoundly ignorant. Look at the contemptuous way he behaves when confronted by Jewish peace activists…