What If Trump Wins Again?
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9:25 am, January 14th, 2024 - 65 comments
Categories: China, Donald Trump, Economy, Free Trade, global warming, International, trade, us politics, war -
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One of New Zealand’s best strategic analysts, Dr David Skilling, recently set out the risks we need to prepare for should Donald Trump win the U.S. Presidency again.
As he sets out the obvious reduced United States willingness to provide security guarantees to Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, Dr Skilling also sets out that AUKUS may be renegotiated as Mr Trump seeks to show he is a better negotiator. The North Korean leader will be emboldened to attack Korea. In Europe, a rapidly withdrawing United States military presence would likely force a settlement in Ukraine favouring Russia. Xi and Putin will be delighted.
“In other words, a second Trump Presidency would lead to a substantial reconfiguration of the global economic and geopolitical system – accelerating some dynamics (global economic fragmentation) and reversing others (a coherent Western alliance). These are not implausible events, but simply assume a more disciplined implementation of actions and statements in the first Trump Administration.” – Dr David Skilling, January 12 2024, Substack
A Trump administration withdrawing from NATO would not be easy to achieve. Democratic Senator Tim Kaine and Republican Senator Marco Rubio introduced legislation passed the Senate, designed to block any U.S. president from withdrawing from NATO without two-thirds Senate approval or an act of Congress. Kaine told me he feels “confident that the courts would uphold us on that and would not allow a president to unilaterally withdraw,” but there would certainly be a struggle. A public-relations crisis would unfold too. A wide range of people—former supreme allied commanders, former chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, former presidents, foreign heads of state—will surely rally to make the case for NATO, and very loudly.
For us this signals that just as the European reliance on United States military bases and expenditure has sustained European security for over 80 years and would require continued sustained military expenditure from the EU to ward off Russia, so it is with New Zealand, Japan and Australia. An Australia less protected by the United States would need New Zealand to step up and spend more on its defence capability so that we in turn can protect our own sea lanes for trade (and those of our Pacific neighbours).
Other Trump policy positions would be easier to achieve. Bloomberg analysed truckloads of speeches and videos to distil his policy positions into some clarity.
In international trade, Trump has floated the idea of encircling the whole of U.S. industry with a 10% tariff, which would bring a fresh wave of disruptions to supply chains. If we can recall the impact to New Zealand of massive supply chain disruption across most of our manufacturing and construction base, under Trump prepare for it again.
Trump and Biden have been in lock step when it comes to a hawkish position on trade with China. The question is whether under Trump it will get to the point where New Zealand’s economy is damaged by providing ingredient or component parts for products and services with China, when U.S. trade with China is seriously curtailed with anti-trade legislation even more than it is now.
Sweeping executive orders to restrict immigration look likely if Trump regains the Oval Office, along with an order to end automatic citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants born in the US, though that will likely face legal challenges. “They want to feast off the sweat and savings of the American taxpayer,” Trump said at a rally in November 2023. “We’re not going to let it happen. I will end it all immediately.” Any Kiwi thinking they will still be able to emigrate to the United States should consider their plans carefully.
Trump would spurn Biden’s climate policies via measures that include rescinding energy regulations such as fuel economy and emissions standards. He’d also pull back out of the Paris climate accord, a move he made while in office last time. So the idea of sustaining COP accords would get very hard.
“When I am back in the White House, I will bring back a pro-American energy policy at long last,” Trump said in a video message released in November. If re-elected, he’s promised to remove all obstacles to massively ramping up drilling in the US for oil and natural gas. Another priority: doing away with incentives towards electric vehicles and clean energy.
Dr Skilling and Bloomberg are reminding us that New Zealand’s network of an international rules based trade-focused order that enables the free flow of capital and labour and goods will under Trump quickly crack. This a set of risks that New Zealand businesses should as much as they can prepare for. Sustaining disputes by law rather than by might may also be at risk.
New Zealand has gained prosperity over 40 years within a free flow of trade under peacetime supported by minor attacks to shipping and planes, low international trade costs such as tariffs, and confidence that international trade disputes will be settled by law rather than by might is at risk: all of that required a United States President prepared to support that.
New Zealand itself is remarkably crisis match-fit having gone through serious crises about one every two years for the past two decades. So a Trump II Presidency doesn’t necessarily mean we enter some kind of polycrisis doom loop. It means that business and the New Zealand government must broaden its trade base away from the United States and China far faster than they ever have, accelerate our energy independence into electricity, confirm a broad set of materials supply lines, and prepare to secure our own sea lanes with stronger military capacity than we have now.
Preparing for the worst should be our default position in our trade, our savings, our immigration plans, our defence commitment, and in our relationships other than with the United States.
So New Zealand, prepare.
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- Release: Growing pressure to scrap Section 7AA Repeal Bill
The newly released Section 7AA Repeal Bill's select committee report is further evidence that the Government should scrap it. ...4 days ago
- Government’s move to monetise access to nature a slippery slope
The Green Party is voicing serious concerns over the Government’s proposal to charge for access to public conservation land, released today. ...6 days ago
- Green Party condemns the passage of Treaty Principles Bill
The Green Party condemns the passing of the Treaty Principles Bill at first reading, and is clear that the fight is not over. ...1 week ago
- Stand Up for Te Tiriti
Te Tiriti o Waitangi is our country’s founding document. It forms the basis of the relationship between Māori and the Crown – and the Aotearoa New Zealand we live in today. ...1 week ago
- Release: Over 15,000 sign Labour’s open letter to Luxon
As the hīkoi to Parliament continues, Labour has sent an open letter to Prime Minister Christopher Luxon in a last-ditch attempt to get him to kill the Treaty Principles Bill. ...1 week ago
- Fast Track Bill threatens environment, climate and reputation
The fast-track legislation passing its second reading in Parliament is another step towards environmental ruin. ...1 week ago
- Greens join King’s Counsel in calling for Treaty Principles Bill to be abandoned
The Prime Minister must answer the call from a group of senior lawyers of the King’s Counsel to abandon the divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...1 week ago
- Chris Hipkins’ apology statement to state and faith-based care survivors
...1 week ago
- Release: Labour formally apologises to state and faith-based care survivors
Labour joins with the Government in unreservedly apologising for the abuse, neglect and trauma including torture in state and faith-based care and for ignoring the voices of survivors for too long. ...1 week ago
- Green Party stands in support of survivors of abuse in care
Today, the Green Party stands alongside the survivors of abuse in state care and faith-based care as the Government issues an historic apology. ...1 week ago
- Green Party calls for conscience vote on Treaty Principles Bill
The Green Party has written to the Speaker of the House requesting he enable a personal vote on the Treaty Principles Bill. ...1 week ago
- Govt move to exclude journalist risks chilling effect
The Green Party is alarmed by the Government’s move to exclude a journalist from covering this week’s apology for the survivors of abuse in state and faith-based care. ...1 week ago
- Without action, an apology will be empty air
For tomorrow’s apology to survivors of abuse in state and faith-based care to hold any water, the Government must not pursue the same policies that drove the abuse in the first place. ...1 week ago
- Release: Concerns remain over tobacco interference
Concerns about the tobacco industry’s ability to interfere in government policy making remain, despite the inability of the Office of the Auditor-General to investigate the Government’s decision to halve the excise tax on heated tobacco products. ...2 weeks ago
- Urgent wake-up call on climate
The Climate Change Commission’s latest advice indicates Aotearoa needs to be stepping up on climate action. ...2 weeks ago
- Green MP’s Meme-ber’s Bill set to save the world
Break out the punchlines and dust off your meme folder: Green Party MP Kahurangi Carter’s Copyright (Parody and Satire) Amendment Bill was pulled from the Ballot yesterday. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Poroporoaki: Ta Robert (Bom) Gillies
Kua hinga te manawa kairākau o Te Rua Tekau Ma Waru Tiwhatiwha te po! Kakarauru i te po! Ka rapuhia kei hea koe kua riro! Haere e te Ika a Whiro ki o tini hoa kua ngaro atu ki te Pō ...2 weeks ago
- Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori call on the Prime Minister to block the Treaty Principles Bill
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori call on the Prime Minister to block the Treaty Principle...
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- NZ must pursue independent foreign policy
The Green Party says the need is greater than ever for Aotearoa New Zealand to pursue an independent foreign policy. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Winston Peters must apologise
The Deputy Prime Minister should apologise to the public servant he named and blamed for something they did not do, and for misusing the rules of Parliament. ...2 weeks ago
- Government action provides Southland farmers more time to meet plan requirements
The Government is taking action to ensure Southland farmers and growers are not affected by unreasonable regional farm plan deadlines, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds and Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard say.“Cabinet has agreed to provide more time for farmers and growers to comply with regional rules ...6 hours ago - Bill reaffirms Government’s commitment to crack down on serious youth offending
The Oranga Tamariki (Responding to Serious Youth Offending) Bill had its first reading at Parliament today. The Bill reaffirms the Government’s commitment to crack down on serious youth offending, Minister for Children Karen Chhour says. “In recent years we have seen an unacceptable spike in youth offending. “This Bill makes ...6 hours ago
- Critical milestones for earthquake buildings review
Fairer, more sensible rules about managing earthquake risks are a step closer with the passing of legislation and the appointment of an independent chair to provide expert advice, Minister for Building and Construction Chris Penk says. “The Government is committed to reinvigorating our cities and regions to support economic growth, ...7 hours ago
- State of the art radiology machine for Auckland
People in Northland and Auckland will benefit from a new machine for cancer treatment installed at the Regional Cancer and Blood Service at Auckland City Hospital. The MV5 linear accelerator, or LINAC machine, officially opened today targets cancer tumours with pinpoint accuracy. Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says this new, ...7 hours ago
- Foreign Minister to visit Europe
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will travel to Europe for high-level talks with France, Germany and the United Kingdom next week. "Since taking office almost a year ago, the Coalition Government has emphasised the importance we place on New Zealand's traditional and likeminded diplomatic and ...8 hours ago
- First arrests made under gang patch ban
Police have made their first arrests under the new gang patch legislation, with two gang members arrested, says Police Minister Mark Mitchell. “Just before 11 this morning, Police in Wairoa apprehended a gang member for wearing a patch to the supermarket. He has been arrested and will now face enforcement ...9 hours ago
- Better support for victims of sexual violence
The Government is proposing two major changes to name suppression laws that will put the views of victims of sexual violence first, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “We are committed to restoring law and order and these two proposed changes will help ensure the victims of crime are put at ...10 hours ago
- Government moving forward with Regional Deals
Cabinet has agreed to invite all regions to submit proposals for Regional Deals between central and local government that drive economic growth and deliver the infrastructure our country needs, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop say. Inviting all regions to propose a Regional Deal that boosts ...10 hours ago
- MSA pilot participant update
One of the ten young men selected to participate in the Military-Style Academy Pilot has allegedly reoffended. Children’s Minister Karen Chhour is disappointed but says it would be naïve to think that none of these young men would reoffend. “I’m saddened that this young person has not taken this opportunity ...11 hours ago
- Attendance rates increase, again
Associate Education Minister David Seymour says that school attendance is continuing to rise. In Term 3 of 2024 51.3 per cent of students attended school regularly, an increase of 5.3 percentage points from 46 per cent in Term 3 of 2023. “This Government has prioritised student attendance and it is ...12 hours ago
- Improving the lives of young New Zealanders
Ensuring New Zealand is the best place in the world for children and young people is the vision at the heart of the Government’s new Child and Youth Strategy, Child Poverty Reduction Minister Louise Upston says. “Childhood represents a huge opportunity to set people on a positive path towards living ...15 hours ago
- Government continues work to reinstate livestock exports by sea
The Government is reinstating the trade of livestock exports by sea while ensuring the highest standards of animal welfare, says Associate Minister of Agriculture Andrew Hoggard.“The Government will introduce legislation changes to reinstate the trade, enhance oversight, and strengthen requirements for exporters to identify risks and manage the welfare of ...1 day ago
- Speech to the National Quality Forum 2024
Tēnā koutou katoa – it is a pleasure to be here today. I would like to begin by acknowledging the important leadership role you all play in ensuring a quality health system New Zealanders can trust. There is enormous clinical expertise in this room covering a wide range of disciplines. ...1 day ago
- New Zealand’s COP29 National Statement
Tēnā koutou katoa. Mr President, Excellencies, Delegates. New Zealand, and all nations represented here today, are already dealing with the impacts of climate change. Our households, businesses, and economies are bearing the costs of its effects. The choices we make now will shape the severity of these impacts for generations ...2 days ago
- Latest Quarterly Investment Report released
The Government has released its second Quarterly Investment Report (QIR) which shows substantial work still to be done by agencies to improve investment reporting and meet the Government’s expectations, Infrastructure and Acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “New Zealand has significant infrastructure and investment needs. The Government is determined to get ...2 days ago
- New Zealand supporting loss and damage fund
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced New Zealand will contribute NZ$10 million to the new Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage while at the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan. “New Zealand is joining the global effort to address the significant challenge of responding to ...2 days ago
- Gang crackdown begins at stroke of midnight
The free ride for gangs is over when the clock strikes midnight tonight, with tough new laws officially coming into effect, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith and Police Minister Mark Mitchell say. “Gang patches will no longer be able to be worn in public. To earn the right to wear a ...2 days ago
- LGFA increases borrowing capacity to support high growth councils
The Government is welcoming the decision by the Local Government Funding Agency to increase access to financing tools for fast growing councils to support greater investment in critical infrastructure, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown says.“Communities across the country are facing an infrastructure deficit and significant population growth is projected in ...2 days ago
- Temporary Traffic Management costs revealed
The Government has revealed that over the past three years, the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) has spent an eyewatering $786 million of taxpayers’ money on road cones and temporary traffic management (TTM), Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“When I became Minister, I was surprised to learn that that NZTA did ...2 days ago
- Jurisdiction of Disputes Tribunal to double
Legislation that will double the financial jurisdiction of the Disputes Tribunal from $30,000 to $60,000 has passed first reading in Parliament today, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith. “We need to improve court timeliness and access to justice so that Kiwis and get on with their lives. Court delays affect everyone, the ...2 days ago
- Protecting New Zealand from foreign interference
Legislation that will specifically criminalise foreign interference and strengthen espionage offences has passed first reading in Parliament today, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “It is normal and appropriate for states to interact and work to influence one another. This encourages cooperation and can have mutually beneficial outcomes. “However, the reality ...2 days ago
- Significant milestone for Canterbury Road of National Significance
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed news that the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) Board has approved funding towards pre-implementation and early works on the State Highway 1 (SH1) Belfast to Pegasus Motorway and Woodend Bypass Road of National Significance (RoNS). “Reaching this significant milestone is a reflection of our Government’s ...2 days ago
- Health survey results to help drive change
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says findings from the annual Health Survey highlight the need to continue driving better health outcomes for New Zealanders. The New Zealand Health Survey is an annual snapshot of key metrics measured from July 2023 – July 2024. Findings released this morning include: In 2023/24, ...2 days ago
- Final push needed to get to Smokefree 2025
A renewed effort to get people to quit smoking will build on what has worked to date and target the groups who most need support, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello said today. “The latest New Zealand Health Survey results show the daily smoking rate at 6.9 per cent and we ...2 days ago
- New diplomatic appointments
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters has announced four new diplomatic appointments. “Our diplomats play an important role in ensuring New Zealand’s interests are maintained and enhanced across the world,” Mr Peters says. “It is a pleasure to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the Ministry of Foreign ...3 days ago
- Next steps for Regulatory Standards Bill
Regulation Minister David Seymour has today announced the next steps in the Government’s plan improve the quality of regulation by opening consultation on a proposed Regulatory Standards Bill. “New Zealand's low wages can be blamed on low productivity, and low productivity can be blamed on poor regulation,” says Mr Seymour. ...3 days ago
- Red Tape Tipline goes live
Minister for Regulation David Seymour has today announced that the Ministry for Regulation’s Red Tape Tipline is now live. “We want to hear about your red tape horror stories. From today, New Zealanders will have a say on how they are regulated through an online portal,” says Mr Seymour. The ...3 days ago
- Youth Parliament 2025 announced
The Minister for Youth Matt Doocey has today announced the eleventh Youth Parliament will be taking place in 2025. “Youth Parliament offers a unique youth development opportunity to young people from across New Zealand to experience the political process and learn about how government works,” says Mr Doocey. “The two-day ...3 days ago
- Police stats show promising change
After nearly a year in Government, Kiwis have seen significant change across law and order with promising early results shown across some Police statistics, says Police Minister Mark Mitchell. “In August 2023, I told New Zealanders that if they had not started to see a change in public safety within ...3 days ago
- Better coordination of anti-scam efforts
With the launch of Fraud Awareness Week, the Government is committing to new coordination efforts across industry and government to combat online scams, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Online financial scams are a growing problem for New Zealand. New data released today shows that Kiwis lost nearly ...3 days ago
- Minister to consider 7AA select committee report
Minister for Children Karen Chhour will consider the recommendations made by the Social Services and Community Committee in its report back to Parliament on the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill. “I want to thank the people who made submissions and those who appeared before the committee in ...4 days ago
- Defence Minister to attend ASEAN meeting
Defence Minister Judith Collins will this week attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus in Vientiane, Laos. “We need to take every opportunity to engage with our international partners, given the increasingly unstable geo-political situation,” Ms Collins says. “New Zealand has a long-standing commitment to this ...4 days ago
- Launching the White Ribbon Ride
The Minister for the Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence, Karen Chhour, was on hand to wish riders well at the start of the North Island leg of the White Ribbon Ride in Whakatāne this morning. The ride helps mark the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women, ...4 days ago
- Construction to begin on next stage of Papakura to Drury
Construction on the next stage of the SH1 Papakura to Drury project will begin early next month, with the contract for works awarded to Fulton Hogan, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. "SH1 Papakura to Drury is a key project that will drive economic growth and productivity, reduce congestion, and enable people ...6 days ago
- NZ signs trade deal with Costa Rica, Iceland and Switzerland
Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay has signed a pioneering trade agreement that prioritises New Zealand’s sustainable exports at a ceremony during APEC in Peru today. “The Agreement on Trade and Sustainability (ACCTS), between Costa Rica, Iceland, and Switzerland was concluded in July of this year and opens up significant ...6 days ago
- Government and iwi work together on aquaculture
Five new Aquaculture Settlement Areas will help ensure Ngāi Tahu shares in the opportunities aquaculture offers for Southland’s economy, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. “The Aquaculture Settlement Areas (ASAs) I’m announcing today set aside space so the Crown and Ngāi Tahu can assess their potential for aquaculture development. ...6 days ago
- Government launches review to ensure electricity market is fit-for-purpose
The terms of reference for a review of the performance of the electricity market have been released. The review, initiated by the Coalition Government during the power crisis in winter will look at whether current regulations and market design support economic growth and access to reliable and affordable electricity, Energy Minister ...6 days ago
- Speech to Social Investment Hui: Jack and his whānau need our help
Kia ora koutou katoa. Nau mai, haere mai, piki mai. Ki te mihi atu ahau, ki te manwhenua nei, Te Atiawa, Ngāti toa rangatira, tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou katoa. Thank you, Andy, for your introduction. Let me acknowledge you as the new Chief Executive of the Social Investment ...7 days ago
- Minister of State for Trade heads to Brisbane for PACER Plus meeting
Minister of State for Trade Nicola Grigg has travelled to Australia to attend the PACER Plus Ministers Meeting in Brisbane. “Trade plays a critical role in driving employment, economic growth, and improving the standards of living in the Pacific Region. The Government is strongly committed to supporting Pacific Island countries ...7 days ago
- Proposals to modernise conservation released
Toitū te taiao – Our environment endures The Government is consulting on proposals to modernise New Zealand’s conservation management system, aiming to protect relevant natural areas while supporting sustainable growth in tourism and regional economies, Conservation Minister Tama Potaka says. “Today, the Department of Conservation – Te Papa Atawhai is ...7 days ago
- NEW POLL: Kiwis Overwhelmingly Support MPs’ Expenses Transparency Law Change
62% of respondents support the extension of the OIA to cover MPs’ spending, compared to just 13% opposed and 24% were unsure. ...1 hour ago - The House: Meanwhile, a week of passing law
The political week has been packed with worthy distractions, but all week Parliament has focused on passing new laws. Here are the highlights. ...1 hour ago - The biggest difference between Hīkoi mō te Tiriti and past hīkoi: More support from non-Māori
Analysis - The diversity of voices during the hīkoi was noticeable - from tangata moana to young immigrants to elderly Pākehā from the South Island. ...2 hours ago
- The House: Samoan citizenship restoration – ‘It means we belong to this land’
When the bill to restore NZ citizenship to some Samoans passed this week, Parliament's galleries were full to the brim with members of the community. ...3 hours ago
- More Delays In Action On Use Of Puberty Blockers With Children
Women’s Rights Party Co-leader Jill Ovens says the Ministry has put New Zealand children at risk by continuing to allow “off-label” prescribing of puberty blockers at far higher rates than other similar countries. ...4 hours ago
- Police Minister adamant he wasn’t aware of gang members training at gun clubs
That is despite two papers from police that raised the matter with him. ...4 hours ago
- Shorten declares himself ‘a proud moderate’, saying Australians ‘in the middle’ shouldn’t ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Bill Shorten has declared himself “a proud moderate” in a valedictory speech declaring parliament has the responsibility to ensure the extremes of left and right do not set the terms of political debate. Shorten, ...5 hours ago - New ‘best practice’ principles for superannuation products are coming. We asked a panel of exper...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matt Garrow, Editorial Web Developer Studio Romantic/Shutterstock We all know how important it is to save enough money for retirement – but what about spending it wisely when we get there? Even for those who have built up a suitable ...5 hours ago
- Government accused of betraying Kiwis’ trust over lack of consultation on live exports
The government has always vowed to reinstate live exports by sea, which was banned by the previous Labour government. ...5 hours ago
- 7 things you can do if you think you sweat too much
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Freeman, Associate Professor of Dermatology, Bond University ERIK Miheyeu/Shutterstock Sweating is our body’s way of cooling down, a bit like an internal air conditioner. When our core temperature rises (because it’s hot outside, or you’re exercising), sweat glands all ...5 hours ago
- Phenergan for under 6s is now banned due to hallucination fears. Here’s what to use instead
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nial Wheate, Professor of Pharmaceutical Chemistry, Macquarie University Australia’s drug regulator has issued a safety warning over the medicine Phenergan and related products containing the antihistamine drug promethazine. The Therapeutic Goods Administration said the over-the-counter products should not be given to children ...5 hours ago
- A new stage adaptation of Peter Carey’s Jack Maggs is a delightful homage to theatrical storytelli...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Campbell, Lecturer, Performing Arts, UniSA Creative, University of South Australia Matt Byrne/STCSA Jack Maggs is a delight and a homage to theatrical storytelling in Australia. Based on Peter Carey’s bestselling novel, Jack Maggs follows the ex-convict as he lands ...5 hours ago
- The government has introduced laws for its social media ban. But key details are still missing
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Angus, Professor of Digital Communication, Director of QUT Digital Media Research Centre, Queensland University of Technology Ron Lach/Pexels The federal government today introduced into parliament legislation for its social media ban for people under 16 years. Communications Minister Michelle ...6 hours ago
- Archives NZ, National Library to cut 27 roles
The Department of Internal Affairs wants to bring the two organisations under the joint leadership of the Chief Archivist and National Librarian. ...6 hours ago
- Gang patch ban: Members warn of potential for violence to ‘erupt’ as new laws enforced
"I can't see this lasting unless they have a budget to lock fullas up in jail which I think is absolutely stupid, really it's ludicrous," Ngavii Pekapo, who set up a Mongrel Mob chapter 54 years ago, says. ...6 hours ago
- ACT leader David Seymour raises doubts about Waikato medical school
Government documents show ACT leader David Seymour told the government he was "dissatisfied" with a cost-benefit analysis. ...6 hours ago
- National’s Erica Stanford allegedly calls Labour’s Jan Tinetti a ‘stupid bitchR...
The Education Minister has apologised in Parliament for her remark. ...6 hours ago
- Labour backs new Police Commissioner – but warns against routine arming
The alternative to policing by consent would be a police state, which New Zealanders don't want, the party says. ...8 hours ago
- Youth on boot camp pilot re-offended five weeks after release
Children's Minister Karen Chhour said while it was disappointing, it would naïve to think none of the participants would lapse. ...8 hours ago
- In photos: People of the hīkoi, and why they marched
Hikoi mō Te Tiriti has come to an end, going down in history as the largest march to Parliament in Aotearoa. ...8 hours ago
- ‘Everything is becoming a culture war’: Jon Ronson on conspiracies and cycleways
Ahead of his appearance in Aotearoa, the acclaimed British journalist, podcaster and documentarian talks to Stewart Sowman-Lund about why people are still fascinated by the fringes. The last place I would expect to find Jon Ronson is relaxing in the countryside. The iconic British journalist and writer is best known ...9 hours ago - Kia kaha Lebanon: NZ media only tell half your story of struggle
The United States has vetoed a UN Security Council ceasefire resolution — for the fourth time — in Israel’s war on Gaza, while Hezbollah demands a complete ceasefire and “protection of Lebanon’s sovereignty” in any deal with Israel. Amid the death and devastation, Joe Hendren reflects on his time in ...9 hours ago
- ‘Deserves a Bafta’: After the Party premieres in the UK to five-star reviews
The acclaimed New Zealand drama has just premiered on TV in the United Kingdom, and the five-star reviews are already flowing in. Six months after it was called a “blistering” “tour de force” by Australian critics, and nearly a year since The Spinoff declared it the best drama New Zealand ...9 hours ago
- Drugs are getting cheaper and easier to find in Aotearoa
New Zealanders are drinking and smoking less, but most other recreational drugs are becoming cheaper, more popular and more available, two new reports show. Two significant new surveys about drugs in Aotearoa were released this week, offering a rare insight into New Zealanders’ choice of substances, which ones are becoming ...9 hours ago
- COP29: ‘climate finance’ for the Pacific is mostly loans, saddling small island nations with mor...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steven Ratuva, Director, Macmillan Brown Centre for Pacific Studies, University of Canterbury Lenora Qereqeretabua, the deputy speaker of Fiji’s Parliament, at the COP29 climate summit. IISD/ENB/Mike Muzurakis, CC BY-SA As this year’s UN climate summit reaches its final stage of negotiations, Pacific ...10 hours ago
- Review: The magic of Wicked and the curse of corporate greed
The new movie musical is undoubtedly a fun watch, but it’s also proof that bigger isn’t always better, writes Stewart Sowman-Lund. Contains minor spoilers for Wicked. There’s no doubt that Wicked is going to be huge. No other pop culture event this year, save from maybe Charli XCX’s Brat, has ...11 hours ago
- Dame Jacinda Ardern to be given United Nations leadership award
She will get the champion for global change award from the United Nations Foundation at a ceremony in New York tomorrow. ...12 hours ago
- NZ will resume live animal exports – to low demand
Analysis: NZ is lifting what was supposed to be a permanent ban on live animal exports. But it’s not the lucrative industry it once was. The post NZ will resume live animal exports – to low demand appeared first on Newsroom. ...12 hours ago - Financial forms of family violence affect one in seven of us – but the law is lagging
There are calls for New Zealand’s Family Violence Act to name economic harm as a standalone type of violence, rather than a subcategory of psychological abuse, to bring it in line with the United Kingdom and Australia. Economic harm – restricting access to, sabotaging or exploiting another person’s financial resources, ...12 hours ago
- Downside Risks To Treasury’s Economic And Fiscal Forecasts
New Zealand is currently running a structural fiscal deficit, with expenditure exceeding revenue. Economic growth falling short of expectations has been making it harder for the Government to bring the books back into balance. ...13 hours ago
- Science continues to exclude Indigenous communities. Fixing this benefits everyone
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jordan Peter Anthony Pitt, Associate Dean of Indigenous Strategy and Services (Faculty of Science), University of Sydney An enduring challenge facing science around the world is how to best include and engage Indigenous communities. In Australia, for example, 0.5% of Indigenous ...14 hours ago
- Why is cricket so popular on the Indian sub-continent?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vaughan Cruickshank, Senior Lecturer in Health and Physical Education, University of Tasmania Cricket originated in England, but has been spread worldwide by British soldiers and settlers in the past few hundred years. It is now the second most popular sport in ...14 hours ago
- Disinformation and deepfakes played a part in the US election. Australia should expect the same
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Renee Barnes, Associate professor of Journalism, University of the Sunshine Coast Mladen Zivkovic/Shutterstock As America takes stock after Donald Trump’s re-election to the presidency, it’s worth highlighting the AI-generated fake photos, videos and audio shared during the campaign. A slew ...14 hours ago
- Is thunderstorm asthma becoming more common?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kira Morgan Hughes, PhD Candidate in Allergy and Asthma, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University When spring arrives, so do warnings about thunderstorm asthma. But a decade ago, most of us hadn’t heard of it. So where did thunderstorm asthma ...14 hours ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yassie Samie, Postdoctoral Researcher in Fashion and Textiles, RMIT University anna.spoka/Shutterstock What happens to your clothes after you don’t want them any more? Chances are, you will donate them to op shops run by a charity organisation. There are more ...14 hours ago
- Friendly fire: a nuclear push by allies at COP29 poses a sticky problem for Albanese
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland IndustryAndTravel/Shutterstock Prime Minister Anthony Albanese didn’t see this coming. At the global COP29 climate talks in Baku, the Australian government was indirectly criticised by two allies, the United States and the ...14 hours ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Phoebe Hart, Associate Professor, Film Screen & Animation, Queensland University of Technology Julia Firak Stan’s new Christmas film Nugget is Dead is a colourful production that follows the rules of the seasonal genre film to a tee – with an Aussie ...14 hours ago
- Help Me Hera: Should I cut contact with my ex-stepdad?
My parents are finally getting divorced. So why do I feel like my stepdad’s feelings are still my problem? Want Hera’s help? Email your problem to helpme@thespinoff.co.nz Dear Hera My parents recently announced their separation. This in itself isn’t a problem. I’ve already gone through this once before in my early childhood, so ...14 hours ago
- New Zealand Drops In Global Ranking On Climate Action
If the government won’t hold polluters to account, then people will. People are increasingly taking to the streets and the courtrooms, putting their bodies on the line to shut down polluting industries. This will only escalate further unless New ...14 hours ago
- Government’s fiscal policy dragging out recession, economists say
Slashing the budget deficit and reducing public debt are making matters worse for households and businesses, they say. ...14 hours ago
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Trump would demand NZ and Australia become dictatorial fascist states just like what Putin is doing to former soviet controlled countries and dependencies like Cuba , Venezuela, Hungary 'Assad Syria the Yemen, Iran, North Korea and it's close ally China.
We would have someone like the Reversnd Brian Tamaski installed another Malignant Narcissistic fwit.
Donate to the democrats influence any US voter the only chance we have.
Democracies are in the worst danger since Hitler came to power.
Many New Zealanders support Trump.
They believe he’s the voice of reason.
I enjoy watching the ‘out in the field’ interviews at Trump rallies. When questioned about why and how Trump is so great, how he is the ‘voice of reason,’ his supporters are quite entertaining.
They all know how wonderful he is, how brilliant, and how he has done all these amazing things for America. When it gets down to “What do you mean” and “Explain that,” they’re not so good. The “But that happened under Obama,” only sometimes flummoxes them.
In that sense, here and in the US he is seen as the voice of reason whatever that voice is saying. And in that sense it is a cult. Whatever he says is gospel.
Trouble is, Robert, look at the alternative to Trump. Is Biden, or Schumer, or any of the other "Democratic" Party leaders either reasonable or moral?
Biden is more moral and more reasonable than Trump. By a long measure.
The US doesn't get third party choices because their system is FPP.
Biden is more moral and more reasonable than Trump. By a long measure.
In what way could Trump's conduct possibly be worse than Biden's conduct during this genocidal rampage in Gaza?
As terrible as Trump is, how is Biden in any way better, leave alone "by a long measure"?
🙄
Now I agree that Biden needs to stop the export of war material to Israel immediately, but if you were to actually open your eyes to what Biden has attempted to do within the US for ordinary citizens – but largely thwarted by a republican dominated house/senate you would see that he is vastly different to that buffoon Trump.
Quite right, Macro, Biden and the Democrats at least have a notional commitment to the public good—in the United States if nowhere else—while the Repugs, both the Trump Repugs and the Never-Trump Repugs, are a purely destructive organization. Noam Chomsky several years ago said the Republican Party is the most dangerous organization in the world today.
My problem with Biden and every single one of his political colleagues and advisers is the point you mentioned first: his failure to "stop the export of war material to Israel immediately."
There you go, it wasn't that hard.
Note, Ad, that the Democratic Party's commitment to workers is notional only. They're still dominated by the likes of Charles Schumer, who came up with the brilliant notion in 2016 that Hillary Clinton didn't need working people's votes, and should target donations from Wall Street instead.
Very bad move.
Note, Ad, that the Democratic Party's commitment to workers is notional only.
I believe he is recognizing that in order to maintain USA's economic dominance he has to reestablish its manufacturing base, which, decades ago was handed over to China and other low wage countries. That's probably the reason for his apparent favouring of the workers.
Biden favouring the workers by telling them to go back to work 😂😂😂
given you are posting with a pseudonym, if your email address is genuine, I suggest next time you comment you use a fake one (which is fine to do on The Standard).
"Biden is moral and reasonable than Trump"….this is actually said without the slightest flinch, about the primary enabeler of the most violent, brutal, disgusting genocide….and not after the fact, while it is still actually happening…how many children, men and woman do you think will die today Ad? …because of Biden and the Democrats..and not Trump.
Here is your morality in full display….
‘Not seen since Vietnam’: Israel dropped hundreds of 2,000-pound bombs on Gaza, analysis shows
https://edition.cnn.com/gaza-israel-big-bombs/index.html
…these are just a small part of the munitions rushed to Israel. by Biden… and you still offer this moralless cover for a party of murders..I mean this seriously, what the fuck is wrong with you liberal's?….the way you people torture and flay the skin off logic, right out in the open, to somehow make the sick fantasy that a moral Western democratic world even exists in your own heads, even in the face of what everyone in the world can see and read in broad daylight is astounding, and shocks the senses…..
Trump the Republician Party, Biden and the Democratic Party are both one in the same as far as Geo-Politics go….the scourge of the entire planet, there will never be peace while these bloodless goons remain the hegemony…..
When one reads your comments and cuts away all the froth…what you are left with is defending a ongoing genocide, defending the violent, undemocratic iron fist of Western hegemony, because it is supposedly good for world trade and most especially for people like you and your class.
Trump and Biden agreed on leaving the women of Afghanistan to their fate.
They are both messing with the WTO, one as an isolationist, the other as pro American worker.
They have a similar at arms length with China approach, with an American industrial revival aspect.
But Biden actually ended the bombing of Yemen of SA and facilitated a truce within Yemen (to enable aid and deal with a famine). This lead to China brokering Iran and SA talks.
One takes GW seriously, the other not so.
Biden's diplomacy as per Israel in Gaza is most likely firmer than Trump's would have been (who was the most pro Israeli POTUS in history).
Trump is less likely to support aid to Ukraine and thus expect the EU to carry the burden or take in Ukrainian refugees. If the GOP blocks supply in the House, the difference is insignificant.
Neither has a policy to manage the South Korea, Taiwan and South China Sea issues of our region – thus the regional arms build-up.
Maybe Trumpian US military support withdrawal has any bearing on Gaza – but I doubt it – and indeed so does Netanyahu as of yesterday's statement.
How might one measure the use of the US as a military threat? On balance how many regional wars across the world one would expect to occur as a result of that?
Regions at risk of civil and then international war in a major US withdrawal would be:
– Strait of Hormuz, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Gulf States, and its primary oil access for the whole of Asia and Oceania
– Taiwan, Japan, China
– South Korea, North Korea, China
– Iraq, Turkey, Syria
– Golan Heights, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt
– Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, Ukraine, Moldova,
– Philippines, China, Vietnam, Malaysia
One might ask how much worse it can get.
The answer is: very very very much worse.
You are quite mad.
It's not just me thinking like this.
https://www.politico.eu/article/can-europe-survive-trump-ii/
“It’s a form of sleepwalking,” said Ulrich Speck, a foreign policy analyst based in Berlin. “We have [French President Emmanuel] Macron’s form of sleepwalking, which dreams of autonomy and sovereignty. We have German sleepwalking, which is denial. And then we have British sleepwalking, which is detachment.”
And we have Oceania sleepwalking, which is Chinese cash helps us sleep.
US Imperialism remains the lead enforcer and enabler for Capital and international Finance Capital. There is no good spin that can be put on that.
You call it spin when it's the measure of how the world already rotates.
Ulrich Speck. He sounds like he could be related to Richard Speck.
"It's not just me thinking like this"…..this is the best your thinking partner can offer on Gaza…
"Many are calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. Haven't seen any calls on Hamas to surrender."
Maybe you need to find yourself a slightly smarter 'thinking' buddy there pal.
It's interesting that you both use sleepwalking as your analogy…..you obviously don't or more likely can't see yourself, that to still regard western hegemony as the higher form of world rule at this point in history, could only be maintained by remaining every day in some sort of strange daydream state of unreality yourself.
Thanks for that, Adrian. My hunch was correct, it seems: Herr Speck might well be an incarnation of Richard Speck.
What double speak.
What on-going genocide?
It uses a pretence of a class basis for rejecting collective security (as per Ukraine) when led by a coalition of democratic nations.
But no problem with the Vietnam level bombing on urban centres of Syria by the Russians in favour of a one party rule continuance in an internal civil war.
World trade is practiced by parties who want it.
Biden may be more moral than Trump. And yes a Trump administration will be worse than a Biden administration. But genocide can not be forgiven. And Biden and the Democrats will be punished for it.
The question for this country's politicians, 5 Eyes military and intelligence leaders, will be will we continue blindly following behind the dystopian neo-fascist Trump administration as we have blindly followed behind every other US administration since the end of the British Empire as the world hegemon?
Or will we; Instead of kowtowing and forelock tugging to the biggest bullies on the planet, chart a more independent foreign policy?
https://www.teaonews.co.nz/2023/02/09/maori-party-adopts-swiss-neutrality-policy/
confidence that international trade disputes will be settled by law rather than by might is at risk: all of that required a United States President prepared to support that.
A U.S. President prepared to support international law? If that were ever the case, then we would not have had the six decade long illegal blockade of Cuba, nor the undermining and destruction of democratic governments from Haiti to Brazil.
Neither would the U.S. have spent the last seventy years funding Nazi groups like the Azov Brigade in Ukraine and honouring the memory of collaborators like Stepan Bandera, and genocidal regimes in Saudi Arabia and Israel.
A U.S. President prepared to support international law? Which one was that again?
The one that has propped up the UN and all its components institutions with massive funding and diplomatic support for 7 decades.
Also the one that enabled GATT from which our dairy experts flourished.
Also until Trump supported international trade dispute resolution, which we have done very well from.
If you're grumpy about Brazil, Brazil are doing fine.
You'll only notice US absence if Trump gets in unrestrained. Cuba will be but a wry smile.
If you're grumpy about Brazil, Brazil are doing fine.
No thanks to the United States.
Brazil exports US$75.7 billion per year to the US and its going up fast. No trade isdue except upside.
The only issue in the last decade was dealng with the Trumpist Bolsonaro. But sure you're likely to get more autocratic in Brazil and elsewhere if Trump gets in.
The Washington regime was relentless in its rhetorical and diplomatic onslaught against the democratic governments of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and of Dilma Rousseff. Washington was unwavering in its support of the Temer coup regime which ushered Bolsonaro's horrific reign.
Dilma Rousseff was even in South America's standards one of the most corrupt politicians we've yet seen, and was appropriately chucked out for being essentially bought and sold by Petrobras. That didn't need any help from the US.
US-Brazil relations have been excellent since 1995 and has been a strong ally since 2019. Clinton loved Cardoso. Bush 1 loved Cardoso. Bush 1 was annoyed by Lula, but Bush 2 loved him. Obama adored Lula. Trump loved Bolsonaro. Biden loves Lula.
No shortage of love for several decades, with appropriate ups and downs for an independent country with its more neutral international relations particularly as a BRICS member.
Your broadside against the democratically elected Dilma Rousseff and your rehearsal of those entirely specious right wing talking points could have come straight from a Bolsonaro, or a Temer, speech.
US-Brazil relations have been excellent since 1995….
U.S. government relationships with Brazilian governments were strong after the U.S, military dictatorship it helped to install in 1964. The U.S. political establishment was startled and affronted by the election of Lula in 2003, just as they were by the elections of democratic governments around the same time in Bolivia, Venezuela, and Ecuador.
You claim that Obama "adored Lula." Lula himself did not agree. Even the dependably servile to power Grauniad had to admit that….
You've gone in 3 paragraphs from "the undermining and destruction of democratic governments from Haiti to Brazil" …
… to "Lula himself did not agree" about liking Obama as much as Obama liked him. It just turns you into a trite schoolyard US-hate-reflex. Please.
Rousseff was part of the largest corruption case in South America. She stank. She went down for it. Lula himself was sent to jail for corruption, and after several years in jail his case was only quashed not because of lack of evidence but because the convicting court lacked the correct jurisdiction. There's whole books on it; not just the "Car Wash" scandal but also the corruption of office itself.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-35810578
Don't ever try and make out that South American politicians are somehow more innocent than US politicians. They ain't. Even if they are left leaning.
Now you can check out which trade institution the US didn't essentially create, which have in total stabilised world trade to the direct benefit of New Zealand:
The entire political economy of world trade is predicated on US structural funding and presence.
In trying to bolster your charge against Dilma Roussef, you have not made a wise choice by quoting the notoriously biased British state media organ. Its coverage of Dilma Roussef was, and is, about as fair and ethical as its treatment of Jeremy Corbyn and Julian Assange.
Don't ever try and make out that South American politicians are somehow more innocent than US politicians. They ain't.
That is quite correct, in the case of the South American politicians that the US armed and diplomatically and militarily supported—Trujillo, Pinochet, Galtieri, and the democracy-hating lunatics in the Venezuelan extreme right.
Even if they are left leaning.
No, the left leaning politicians are all democratically elected. They got there because they were popular, unlike the monsters foisted on them by Washington.
The term for Rouseff's crimes are called "fiscal pedalling". The sources are numerous if you don't like the BBC. She was Chairwomen of Petrobras from 2003 to 2010. Some of those years at the same time as running Lula's office.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Dilma_Rousseff#:~:text=In%202011%20and%202014%2C%20Rousseff's,an%20example%20of%20fiscal%20pedaling.
Maybe you prefer The Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2016/aug/31/dilma-rousseff-impeachment-brazil-what-you-need-to-know
Or Al Jazeera.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/9/6/rousseff-lula-charged-in-petrobras-corruption-probe
Or Reuters.
https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1BH00T/
Failing that read the books. There's multiple of them to go into the detail. Or the case notes themselves. Really not that hard.
And disabuse yourself of the idea that the left are less corrupt than the right. They just have better policies on average.
… if you don't like the BBC
It's not that I don't like the BBC. I loved Dad's Army and all those Dennis Potter dramas, and Pennies From Heaven, and The Glittering Prizes. The Beeb used to do some brilliant documentaries as well: an outstanding one I remember was Alan Yentob's thoughtful and exhilarating series on modern architecture.
The part of the BBC I don't like is their thoroughly discredited political wing. They bowed to Thatcher's demand in the 1980s to silence Sinn Fein spokespeople and have actors speaking their words instead. Their disgracefully biased coverage of the latest Israeli onslaught in Gaza is just the latest example of its craven submission to power. The great Tony Benn, one of the few British politicians with integrity, called them on their cowardice in 2009…
"The one that has propped up the UN and all its components institutions with massive funding and diplomatic support for 7 decades."
The one that will soon be rewarded for this massive funding investment, when the UN International Court of Justice delivers a grotesque judgement in favour of Israel continuing its genocidal war against the civilian population of Gaza.
The three headed hydra confabulation has no contingency fund to respond to emergency (climate change related) events
Auckland Super City – floods this year (what do comms do and when)?
Wellington Trains on too good a summers day?
What Cook Strait bridge (floods in the north could na get SI vegetables across the bridge)?
We’ve survived stuff because we do not plan to prevent …consequences of heavy trucks on roads, allow low bid bus contracts and wonder why we do not have enough bus drivers,
Western Auckland had been preparing for flooding for three decades and still got smashed: Project Twin Streams had stabilised and increased floodplain capacity but nowhere near enough. East Coast got smashed for nearly a year and would have been the case no matter what they'd done.
Then again it is already a known about how much there was to work on.
Link, after link, after link.
https://newsroom.co.nz/2023/05/23/aucklands-anti-flooding-plan-now-on-steroids/
https://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/local-news/300891625/auckland-council-in-talks-on-moving-floodprone-roads-to-safer-ground
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/auckland-floods-tens-of-thousands-of-homes-across-auckland-prone-to-floods-water-and-wastewater-constraints-and-coastal-erosion/WI735MJYGVA6VBLQBPDO2YDVLI/
https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/17-02-2023/why-do-we-still-build-homes-on-flood-plains
https://www.auckland.ac.nz/en/news/2023/01/31/smarter-design-to-mitigate-auckland-floods.html
https://ourauckland.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/media/je3potln/auckland-flood-response-review_january-27-29-2023.pdf
There sure is plenty to do in Auckland, agreed.
He will cite the winter under Joe Biden, as reason to isolate the US from global warming action, saying America is the land of exceptionalism.
https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/01/14/ferocious-us-winter-weather-could-see-low-temperature-records-set/
These sort of events you would think would change people's minds but it seems to do the opposite.
People turn inwards and don't work as a community to fix the problems but rather go I am OK Jack forget about the rest.
So that feeds into Authoritarianism.
U.S. carbon emissions shrank in 2023 for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic. Last year, U.S. greenhouse gas pollution from energy and industrial activities fell by 1.9% despite the economy growing by about 2.4%. To put that into perspective: in 2023, the U.S. emitted as much carbon as it did in 1991, when the economy was about a quarter of its current size.
https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/good-news-bad-news-us-emissions-shrank-last-year-slowly-rcna132932
Had Biden got the support for his Build Back Better plan in the early years of this current administration, there would have been even more progress made on the climate front.
Blame Manchin for that
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4302952-five-times-joe-manchin-changed-climate-policy-senate/
I'm in the middle of a book on how far we have come in such a short space of time to address climate change. I'll do a review of its optimistic tone once I'm done but it's a useful corrective to the usual doom lop.
There's no what if's, Trump WILL win this year. Trump wont just win, he'll win the popular vote this time if Bidens on the ticket the democrats are going to be obliterated
Biden is lowest polling first term president in history.
Trump beats Biden with voters 30, independents, Latinos and Bidens lead with black voters is dissolving
Bidens age is one of the top 3 concerns of all voters.
Americans of all ethnicities and ages don't wanna fund Ukraine or Israel's military or pay for illegal immigrants and refugees while their services get cut in funding, they keep saying this and Democrats just cold heartedly screw over their voters
The economy is really bad for ordinary people and that's all that matters.
The dems are gonna lose all three houses.
Best President the Yanks never had was “Boynie” Sanders thanks to the DNC and collusion on the campaign trail in the Democratic primaries and Candidates like Mayor Pete and Elizabeth Warren with their staged withdrawals that helped elevate Joe from initial also ran.
AOC just qualifies by age to stand but the DNC would not go there! And Alexandria was badly shaken by Jan 6, narrowly escaping death in her office. Biden is a major impediment for the Democrats and voters.
Trump should be in a cell not the White House, and would only win by default.
" thanks to the DNC and collusion on the campaign trail in the Democratic primaries"
Laughable nonsense very similar to Trumps denialism that he lost the election. Other candidates withdraw from the primaries all the time, always about no money coming in. Winnowing down to last 2 or 3 is how its supposed to work
Warren pulled out because she lost in her home state – to Biden
Look at the votes cast in the primaries , which the DNC cant 'manipulate' LOL
Clinton 16.9 mill
Sanders 13.2 mill
But no doubt any evidence to the contrary to you is proof of the opposite conspiracy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2016_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries
Unemployment is low and wage growth is strongest at the low end, thus less wage inequality. Inflation is going down, without a recession.
The GOP is using the term Bidenomics as a negative, leading many to presume a recession, high unemployment and inflation is getting worse – and yet none of that is true.
It's nearly a year to go until the election, and any polling is entirely based on a theoretical Trump vs a theoretical Biden as neither is their party's nominee yet.
It'd be wise to take those numbers with a large dose of salt.
Yes, Biden has some problems. Some of them related to perceptions around his age. Others around the average voters' feelings about the economy.
But people also said his primary campaign was doomed, and now he's president. A lot can happen in 10ish months.
Turnout is king–a huge non vote, FPP/skewed electoral Collage, and voter suppression/gerrymandering are three complicating factors in US Elections.
According to various polls on women's health, minimum wage rise, union & gay rights etc. MAGA supporters are in the minority now, but, they do tend to vote like Natzos and boomers here.
It is way too soon to pick. Trump could yet get an orange jumpsuit, or Joe Biden drop out etc.
Yes.
Turnout was high in 2020 – easier mail voting. Woman sometimes have issues with voting on a working day – family, work and queues. About half the states have the vote on a working day.
Gerrymandering allows the GOP to get a House majority on a minority of the vote.
Biden's burned off almost all support from young people, and indeed any older person with a conscience.
America is a country of immigrants, with the exception of the locals that were already there when the now established immigrants recently arrived. Americans aren't "paying for illegal immigrants" because the border is not an open free for all. This is a tired trope. No social security number = no medicaid, no welfare, and no federal benefits. So what exactly are Americans paying for with this mythical boogeyman? Visa-mandated labour goes through the appropriately regulated channels and is not illegal. Have you had your place at Harvard triaged for an illegal immigrant, or your application to investment via a hedge fund 86'd by a refugee family because of affirmative action? Come on…
There's still some hope he won't.
New poll shows Nikki Haley could beat Biden by more than Trump (msn.com)
And now this very weird reason – an ad hominem attack to which Trump might be especially susceptible.
Will Americans Vote for a Man Who Is Now Widely Reported to Exude a Rancid Odor?
I remember reading about the conservative tendency to be more easily disgusted – be strange if it came back to bite Trump.
I knew there was a certain 'stench' around Trump, but that is all too weird.
Remember that dread feeling you had in November 2016? Get ready to feel that way all over again this November…
Dread? Not really. Despite my feelings about Trump, I had a sense of relief that the US dodged having Hillary Clinton as President.
It was the classic choice between two evils. Or perhaps it was Demonstably Evil versus Insane Clown.
https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/matt-taibbi/insane-clown-president/
Yep. There are some quality people in the US political scene, but apparently none of them mad or corrupt enough to be elected president.
https://youtu.be/H3zN4-n8ZWg?si=UtJ_MKIfhTpLxZW8
BTW Ad…here is the type of person you seem to be happy to align yourself with in the defense of NATO….but then again brutal illegal sanctions in service of Western interests never seem to bother the Liberal Imperialist class conscious….as it turns out, nothing much does.
Countries dropping dollar neutralizes US sanctions, complains neocon Marco Rubio
"China and Brazil signed an agreement to de-dollarize their trade and use local currencies. US politicians like neoconservative Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio are furious, because it means they can no longer destroy countries' economies with illegal unilateral sanctions"
Rubio is a truly repellent individual, as well as profoundly ignorant. Look at the contemptuous way he behaves when confronted by Jewish peace activists…