When will Luxon be rolled?

Written By: - Date published: 10:32 am, February 23rd, 2025 - 32 comments
Categories: act, david seymour, national, nz first, same old national, winston peters - Tags:

Spare a thought for Christopher Luxon.

He thought that through his dominant personality and his huge intellect as shown by his extraordinary grasp of corporate speech he would be a natural as Prime Minister. Sixteen months in and it is clear that his time in the top job is running out.

Don’t believe me? Think that as a self confessed Labour hack this is the sort of thing that I would say?

You could take occasional Standard reader Matthew Hooton’s word for this.

In a Herald article from last November he said this about Luxon:

The Prime Minister is too arrogant to resign, at least before the election, but those who argued the former corporate bureaucrat lacks the attributes required for successful national leadership have been proven right.

Like Ricky Gervais’ David Brent, Christopher Luxon has an unfounded sense of his own personal charm, while also running down his colleagues behind their backs.

His lack of understanding of the National Party means he fails to appreciate that everything he says about another MP soon gets back to them.

Hooton then criticised Luxon’s remarkable lack of understanding of Aotearoa’s history and issues particluarly in relation to race relations.

He pointed out that every living National Party Prime Minister warned him that Act’s Treaty Principles bill was wrong. He noted that Act conceded the bill was not a bottom line in coalition negotiations, but was only an important priority.

Luxon giving Seymour the ability to introduce the bill has allowed Act to cannibalise National’s support. A better leader would have foreseen this.

In a more recent article Simon Wilson also thinks that Luxon is on his way out, but at a slower place than that thought by Hooton.

He rightfully points out that the Greens had an awful year and Labour had a year of penance, but despite this the opposition were according to the polls in a position to win back the Government.

He points out that politics is now more unstable and that people are now more divided and angrier but notes that “if a political party promises to fix problems, wins power and then doesn’t fix those problems, they should expect there will be blood”.

Luxon’s biggest problem is that his coalition is inherently unstable and he has two coalition partners more interested in looking after their own interests than making this Government work. As said by Wilson “[t]hey stoke the fires, and he lets them get away with it. Act and NZ First are both more interested in entertaining their own bases than helping to govern the country constructively.”

Luxon might bring it round but he shows no ability to do so or even to appreciate the situation that he is in.

And he is totally out of touch. Claiming some sort of empathy for the plight of poor people does not wash.

This is the former owner of eight properties that changed the bright line test retrospectively and then sold two properties tax free.

He is that interested in photo ops that when elected leader he hired a black limousine to drive him from his apartment, across the road to Parliament’s forecourt, a total of 200 metres.  One wonders why he could not have walked.  

He is not National’s messiah and everyone realises that now.

The only question is when. If National’s polling continues to drop then nervous back benchers will revolt. Nothing is clearer.

The crunch point may occur in April of this year when Winston Peters and David Seymour swap positions. Or it may be when Winston presents the Government with rail enabled ferries to purchase, National says no and NZ First then walks. And on this topic the appointment of H2 to the board of the company charged with negotiating ferry procurement contracts for two new inter-island ferries was a subtle two fingered salute to National.

Luxon has neither the skill nor the understanding to work his way to it. And when it happens he will be remembered as the David Bent of New Zealand politics.

32 comments on “When will Luxon be rolled? ”

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  1. Kay 1
    23 February 2025 at 11:12 am

    If, per chance, Nicola managed to secure the top job (heaven forbid), would that mean she couldn't destroy the economy as Finance Minister anymore?

    Or would she pull a Muldoon?

  2. Dennis Frank 2
    23 February 2025 at 11:23 am

    Totally depends how many times he has asked God for an economic recovery. He's christian, and christians know they must ask God many times for something until he wills it to them. They teach that cause and effect are related by repetition.

    So the old neolib nag collapsed in a heap may yet lurch to its feet and shuffle forward, zombie-like, so all good rightists & leftists can high-five each other again. Lux, in this scenario, will smile benignly from on high: "Yes, I made it happen. I asked God fervently for months, and he delivered!"

    • Macro 2.1
      23 February 2025 at 1:50 pm

      He's christian, and christians know they must ask God many times for something until he wills it to them. They teach that cause and effect are related by repetition.

      What a load of crap! eg Matt 6: 10

      your kingdom come, your will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.

      • Dennis Frank 2.1.1
        23 February 2025 at 2:42 pm

        That's a prayer, which I had to recite often as a kid. It's not what actually happens in real life, which is what I was describing (known as confirmation bias). smiley

    • tWig 2.2
      24 February 2025 at 1:52 pm

      So Scott Morrison, also a prosperity christian thought when he asked God for the keys to the kingdom, and secretly awarded himself multiple Ministries in his own government.

      Post his electoral loss, he said “God’s kingdom will come. It’s in his hands. We trust in him. We don’t trust in governments. We don’t trust in the United Nations, thank goodness,” he said. “We don’t trust in all these things, fine as they may be and as important as the role that they play. Believe me, I’ve worked in it and they are important."

      Morrison also does not believe in 'identity politics'.

  3. Incognito 3
    23 February 2025 at 11:42 am

    That’s a real insult to a fictional character. Just saying.

    Anywho, Luxon will be hold on to his paradoxical get-out-jail card from his kind & generous coalition partners because he’s the most useful Nat leader for them. IMO, this is why the fringe network and MSM have not descended into a full assault on him yet – they’re merely testing the waters and sounding out the vibe.

    By the second half of this year, it will be much clearer how the decks will be stacked for (or rather, against) National, Luxon, and his potential challengers.

  4. Mike the Lefty 4
    23 February 2025 at 11:43 am

    When you are consistently scuppered by a twerp who hasn't even taken over as deputy PM yet, it seems logical that Luxon's position will be under a greater threat when the twerp actually does.

  5. Craig H 5
    23 February 2025 at 12:07 pm

    Can't see it personally – rolling the PM during the first term is a loser's game. I suppose if numbers are dropping around 20% maybe, but otherwise, the internal narrative will just be 'could always be worse'.

  6. Bearded Git 6
    23 February 2025 at 12:11 pm

    Hopefully not till he has lost in 2026. Bishop will replace him.

  7. Mac1 7
    23 February 2025 at 12:46 pm

    What does it say about National that it so lacked a quality alternative that it chose to promote à la John Key another CEO millionaire to move into that role?

    Do we remember who came after him, and their leadership worth? English

    Luxon, Reti, Collins, Kaye, Muller, Bridges, English.

    Who have National got now? Top 8 rankings after Luxon- Willis, Bishop, Brown, Stanford, Goldsmith, Upston, Collins, Reti.

    I wrote this in 23 May 2023 on The Standard .

    "For me it raised the issue of what options National has when Luxon goes for there are not many at the moment. It goes back to selection.

    "And will National try and do another Luxon by drafting in another leadership candidate, touted as such, and risk failing again? It is a terribly bad look for a party to so openly and willingly espouse such a poor candidate for such a role. It means that they have a poor idea of what makes a leader and how to identify those traits in a person."

    Now, less than two years later we are reading a post about rolling him. On 21 September 2024 I wrote this on The Standard.

    "Prime ministers need seven essential skills for the office: persuasion, oratory and storytelling, energy levels, intellectual ability, temperament, ruthlessness, opportunism, and populism.

    "And also, he or she must have the following qualifications:
    1) be a political teacher with a skill for explanation and making sense of complex issues;
    2) be able to manage a party that is bound to be divided, and lead that party with a sense of purpose and ideological verve;

    3) respond astutely to the demands of the media at any time of any day;
    4) link values to policies in ways that bind a party and appeal to the wider electorate;
    5) show a deep understanding of the wider currents of domestic and foreign policy and a developed sense of political history;
    6) read the political rhythms in order to assess correctly the space available to act as prime minister."

    Who of the eight top National contenders has these attributes?

    It is a very important question for us all, in many ways.

    • Dennis Frank 7.1
      23 February 2025 at 1:41 pm

      Yeah good enough to repeat, that analysis. Of your 7 essential skills [heptad] I'd rate Lux at 3/4 on persuasion, 2 on oratory but 6 on storytelling (sorry, had to split those), 9 on energy levels, 1 on intellect, 8 on temperament, 5 on ruthlessness, 7 on opportunism and 9 on populism.

      Your supplementary hexad of must-have qualifications (gosh, anyone would guess you're a school-teacher, eh?) gets him a pass from me on the first couple if you eliminate verve (he does ideology on autopilot), also he's adept at #3 if you replace astutely with fairly competently and ok at #4, only to go awol on #5. I'll allow him a pass on #6 only because Hipkins continues to make it easy for Lux.

      As regards the likelihood of any of the top 8 alternatives having the entire recipe, zilch seems the obvious answer – although Penk survived his credibility test.

    • Drowsy M. Kram 7.2
      23 February 2025 at 3:48 pm

      Sell Sell Sell – everything must grow Grow GROW – Go for GROWTH!

      Most democracies face growing and increasingly complex problems – what to do?

      Simple; sack public servants, cut costs in public health, education and other critical services/infrastructure, repeal smoke-free and gun control legislation, give landLords and other entitled folk tax relief, prioritise rich foreign investors, and drill baby drill!

      David Seymour unveils overseas investment reforms amid foreign home buyers debate [23 Feb 2025]
      It also comes as the coalition parties grapple with whether to allow wealthy foreigners to buy homes in New Zealand, a move traditionally opposed by New Zealand First, but its position appears to be softening.
      …
      “Nearly every other developed country has less obstructive laws than New Zealand,” he [Seymour] said.

      Hmm, Seymour says Aotearoa NZ is obstructing wealthy folk – how very dare we.

      He [David Cooper, chief executive of immigration advisory practice Malcolm Pacific, established by former Nat MP Aussie Malcolm] added investor migration was highly competitive around the world, but the fact many nations including Australia, the UK and Canada were introducing stricter restrictions gave New Zealand a competitive advantage.
      https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360574690/watch-government-lower-investor-threshold-attract-wealthy-foreigners

      One might ask why Australia, the UK and Canada are introducing stricter restrictions on investor migration – but not deputy PM-to-be Seymour and our CoC government.

      • Mac1 7.2.1
        23 February 2025 at 7:47 pm

        Other things go "drip drip drip", as well, from trickle down economics to Chinese water torture.

        It's a good analogy to point out where National fails. Hospitals.Water services.Waste water. Personal savings. Leaky buildings and poor housing. Petrol pumps. Mental health. Even cough medication.

        Great cartoon- love the cobwebs on the flow regulating wheel, splattered pipe and even the bat doing a runner from the crazy intruders. And who is that sneaking up on Luxon? Is he soon to be a ladderless leader, washed away in a torrent of pent up s**t, meeting his downfall in an outfall?

    • Populuxe 7.3
      23 February 2025 at 5:29 pm

      That's probably a bit harsh on English. What he lacked in charisma or new ideas, he made up for in basic competency. That might sound like a low bar, but we are talking about National.

    • Bearded Git 7.4
      23 February 2025 at 10:11 pm

      Sounds like Helen Clark would qualify….and not many others.

  8. Ad 8
    23 February 2025 at 3:11 pm

    Government in May 2025 will be a shambles.

    What they've done to Wellington in particular and public service generally is damaging to us all.

    Hang in there Luxon you're a gift.

    Chris McKenzie at FerryCorp was instrumental in buying back rail with Cullen, and Auckland track electrification. He's taken on a truly thankless task.

    Can't wait to see National out.

  9. Populuxe 9
    23 February 2025 at 5:32 pm

    I suspect if Seymour had tried this under Key, he would have told Seymour that unless he got back in his box, Goldsmith would be taking a serious swing at Epsom.

  10. gsays 10
    23 February 2025 at 6:00 pm

    Channeling my inner 10 yr old…

    If I understand the post, a roll-on could be rolled on because of roll-on roll-offs.

    More importantly does he keep the knighthood if he doesn’t last a full term?

    • Drowsy M. Kram 10.1
      23 February 2025 at 6:18 pm

      More importantly does he keep the knighthood…

      'Sir' is always on his mind – 'Sir' is always on his mind.

    • Obtrectator 10.2
      24 February 2025 at 9:25 am

      He should be OK for that – after all, he's been PM longer than the hapless Sir Bill was.

      • tWig 10.2.1
        24 February 2025 at 1:58 pm

        But Bill English was an effective minister and Nat backroomer for many years. You may not like his politics, but he's competent, and is old enough to have a sense of public good.

  11. SPC 11
    23 February 2025 at 7:18 pm

    Christopher Luxon/Duxon/Dixon is no David Bent/Denton/Bendon.

    All bald, or old white men look alike, to the younger more powerful on earth.

    A pentecsotal like SCoMo or Lux (soap me) in (cleanliness next to godliness) bows down to imperial money, as they say mammon is associated with a Jewish word (for money/wealth) and thus the god on earth they worship, to be sorted.

    A rich man and a camel and a cigaretti, smoke on the water.

    https://www.1news.co.nz/2025/02/22/china-secures-maritime-presence-in-cook-islands/

  12. cathyo 12
    24 February 2025 at 2:18 am

    There's a persistent misapprehension that because someone is successful in business they will be successful in politics or government.

    This is of course nonsense.

    https://newsroom.co.nz/2024/04/11/anne-salmond-nz-is-a-democracy-not-a-company/

    • KJT 12.1
      24 February 2025 at 8:33 am

      Too many, so called, business managers, rely on underinvestment and asset stripping to make themselves look good to shareholders and boards in the short term, to pump their own prospects.

      This, is disastrous for both businesses and countries, when one of them gets in a position of power.

  13. thinker 13
    24 February 2025 at 7:49 am

    Luxon is the lefts best friend for the moment. We don't want him rolled.

    Just my opinion but I think the game plan is to generate savings in year one and bank them on tax cuts for the rich

    In year two, the economy is 'naturally' healing and the coalition can take the credit for it, pointing to it's actions in year one.

    But I think macro issues might bite them in the provrerbials and scupper the recovery in year two. Interest rates will fall but for an economy to recover needs both falling interest rates and growing confidence and world events may impact on the latter.

    Watching how our interest rates rose and fell in comparison to our neighbours across the ditch is an interesting exercise as well. So many things impact on a governments ability to manage the economy and maybe we think the government itself has control over more of the levers than it has

    • Obtrectator 13.1
      24 February 2025 at 9:32 am

      When it comes to the purely economic side of government, I don't think it matters much which side is in power here. We seem to be living through an age when a tiny clique of unelected techbros and fossil-fuel barons wields more actual clout than most nations.

  14. Res Publica 14
    24 February 2025 at 8:47 am

    Bold of them to assume he was actually in charge of this dumpster fire in the first place.

    He'll go down in history as our first PINO (Prime Minister in Name Only)