Written By: - Date published: 9:49 am, February 27th, 2018 - 52 comments
Categories: Amy Adams, bill english, jacinda ardern, Judith Collins, national, paula bennett, Politics, same old national, Simon Bridges, Steven Joyce - Tags: mark mitchell
We should know round about lunch time who the new leader of the National Party is going to be.
The decision will show if National is planning for the future or dwelling in the past. Either is possible.
If Simon Bridges wins, and he appears to have the inside running,then there will be a more significant change. The old John Key guard will be gone or demoted. Depending on how much support Bridges actually has.
Paula Bennett may remain but Joyce will no doubt be demoted and the possibility of his departure from Parliament cannot be underestimated.
If Amy Adams wins then the talk is that Joyce will become deputy leader. The Key English crew will presumably remain safe. Expect the status quo to continue although Adams has none of the dynamism of John Key or the reliability of Bill English. She will struggle.
Should Mark Mitchell somehow come through the middle then his innate conservatism will provide a jarring alternative to Jacinda Ardern but one that I am confident will not work. New Zealand has changed a lot since the heyday Mitchell’s lot had in the 1950s.
Joyce may have a chance. One in 11.5 billion.
And the one candidate who has performed very well, fronted up to the media and has spoken convincingly looks like she will be the first to be excluded. It almost makes you feel sorry for Judith although no doubt she will stay on the front bench. Cameron Slater will not be pleased.
But this is a poisoned chalice. None of the candidates, except possibly for Judith have the skill or the ability to public standing to deal with Jacinda Ardern. And they are all bankrupt of ideas. The lack of a debate about policies and principles is startling.
National could be in for a rough time. The next opinion poll result will be interesting.