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Why negotiating with the Wellington protesters is a waste of time

Written By: - Date published: 8:17 am, February 21st, 2022 - 277 comments
Categories: chris hipkins, covid-19, human rights, jacinda ardern - Tags:

There is something of a manufactured chorus of calls for the Government to sit down and negotiate with the protesters.

Such unbiassed intellectual heavy hitters like Heather Du Plessis Allan, Sean Plunkett, Bryce Edwards and Russell Coutts think that it is time for the Government to sit down and negotiate with the protesters.

Here are four simple reasons why negotiation would be an utter waste of time.

1. The protesters’ leadership do not have a mandate to represent the protesters

The protest leadership has admitted they have no ability to control the protest over such simple things as removing cars from roads to allow for access to emergency services.  From their statement issued yesterday:

In line with the government’s request, over the past few days, we have removed the cars blocking Molesworth Street at least three times to facilitate access for emergency services and servicing of portaloos, only to have protestors ignore the request and expand back into the laneway.

Everyone arriving here quickly learns the protest is simply a collection of individuals. There is no leader, and while there are multiple pre-existing groups concerned about mandates and vaccines alike, we suspect that 25% of the people present on site do not identify with any group.

And if you need evidence of the septic nature of what is happening within the group well known participant Chantelle Baker has said that she is considering legal action against other participants who have claimed that she is a freemason and that she has been funded by Ardern and the Government.

2. Their claims are extreme

There have been numerous demands, the overturning of the last election, the imprisonment and trial or worse of politicians, the immediate removal of all Covid legislation.

How do you think the Government negotiators should handle negotiations?  That Ardern should not be put on trial but Hipkins is fair game?  That new elections would be held but not for 12 months?

And why would you negotiate over public health measures that have seen our country perform extraordinarily well in the way it has dealt with Covid?

3. There are actual Nazis present

How do you negotiate with a Nazi?  Is it over the numbers of people being killed or imprisoned without trial with a reduction in the final number being considered a win?

My impression is that the Nazis are the ones frustrating the protest having a clear mandate.  They are not interested in a negotiated settlement, they just want to see the world burn.  There should be zero tolerance of and zero concessions given to Nazis.

4. At the time of the country’s most dangerous health crisis in a century now is not the time for a rushed retreat from the mandate

Last November Jacinda Ardern said that it is hard to know how long vaccine mandates may be used.  The primary consideration is and has to be public health.  Negotiating with a group the vast majority of which do not accept the science and many of who believe some pretty bizarre things is not the basis for proper decision making during the country’s most dangerous health crisis in the past century.

So there you have it.  If you think that negotiations could work, let me know over what and how they could be conducted and implemented.

277 comments on “Why negotiating with the Wellington protesters is a waste of time ”

  1. Rae 1

    You can't reason with people who have been brainwashed as surely as any cult member. You only have to look at that Sue Grey and what she puts out there to understand what we are dealing with here. There are people (some I actually know) who will vote for this, in the hope that conspiracy theories can govern.

    To get out of the crazy anti vaxx mindset, which is like chemtrailers, 9/11 inside job, man never landed on the moon, Elvis is at the local 7/11 all rolled into one and stuffed full of steroids, will need deprogramming techniques. In other words they are goners where critical thinking goes.

    I may sound a bit harsh about this, no apologies, I am, what I have just described fits my family member where this goes, to a 't'

    • PsyclingLeft.Always 1.1

      Sad..but true. I have on occasion tried….but the same also re 5G,1080,Agenda 21,One World Govt,Fluoride,Bible foretold Covid etc etc. Seems these people just….need to live in an other World.

  2. Dennis Frank 2

    Well the gist of the police commissioner's interview on Q+A seemed to be that negotiations were the process being undertaken. Did you not see that??

    If you did, perhaps you didn't form the same impression as me? I'd be interested in why not in that case.

    Perhaps you don't believe the police commissioner is part of the govt? Again, I'd be interested in why you have formed that view. The public service is traditionally considered to be part of the govt. Perhaps you are overly impressed by the commissioner's operational independence?

    Gosh, so many questions raised by your assessment. Here's another. Is it reasonable for the commissioner to negotiate with the protest leaders while it isn't for ministers to do so? And another. If not the commissioner, then who? And another: do you believe nobody official ought to negotiate with them?

    • Visubversa 2.1

      The Police Commissioner is attempting to sort out some of the more egregious breaches of the law – mainly in regard to traffic obstruction. He is looking for ways to clear the roads without having to get the Army in and without crushing a lot of vehicles. He is NOT negotiating over any of the protesters' demands as they are outside his area of responsibility.

    • mickysavage 2.2

      Gosh …

      The police can and clearly are negotiate with the leadership on day to day issues. In fact if you read my post it refers to negotiations that happened between the police and the protest leadership and how a negotiated position failed because the protesters did not follow the deal.

      They are constitutionally separate from the Government. The post is very clearly referring to the proposal that Government MPs negotiate with the protest.

      • Dennis Frank 2.2.1

        Wasn't clear to me but thanks for clarifying, and likewise to Visubversa. If Coster had differentiated same as you to Jack Tame he wouldn't be creating the wrong impression in the minds of viewers, eh?

        However since young Jack took him at face value I guess I can go with any successful negotiating will lead the protesters towards nonviolent conflict resolution.

        • lprent 2.2.1.1

          I can only go by what I read. But my understanding is that Coster is only negotiating on the day-to-day basis. After all, the post was about the complaints about "the government" not negotiating, ie cabinet and even parliament.

          The police, military, judiciary and a number of other sundry parts of the state aren't directly under control of the Parliament, or the cabinet. They're under the control of the crown as advised by the executive council.

          This is a subtle distinction set of distinctions, but one that allows our democracy to operate with the forces of the state not being in operational control of politicians. They largely make their own distinctions about what is required to objectives within existing law, largely unhampered by politicians or by the mindless brayings of the donkeys of the medias opinion click-bait courtiers.

          With what is happening in Wellington at present, the elegance of this weird but workable constitutional trick is on full display.

          The government isn't in direct control of the police. The protesters to get the attention of the parliamentarians and be taken seriously have to learn to be coherent and have to face the realities of a pandemic that so many seem to be avoiding thinking about.

          The barbarians seeking a coup will get absolutely hammered by the police and military if they start breaking the peace and laws by getting violent or intimidating residents. The rest of the protesters are sandwich and acutely aware of their invidious position.

          The police appear to have gotten well past the "it wasn't a riot until the police turned up" mentality that prevailed in the 80s and even into the 90s. If they can contain (like teh concrete blocks) and then slowly squeeze (like being able to control who may drive into the area) then that is their preference.

          I'm getting more impressed with the police as this protest has continued. And I haven’t been too impressed with them ever since getting batoned on the final test in 1981.

          • Dennis Frank 2.2.1.1.1

            Well put. I take the point re separation of powers & the constitutionality aspect. Trouble is, I got raised to be a typical kiwi & despite a lifetime of nonconformism I do still get sucked into the tacit psychology of normality at times. Guess this negotiations issue is one of those times.

            One of the other commentators pointed to the dual meanings of govt in popular usage and it does create linguistic confusion at such times.

          • Tiger Mountain 2.2.1.1.2

            Yes lprent, I too am reluctantly realising the Police are doing ok here in the circumstances–not quite Robo Cop to Rainbow Cop–but they have moved on from team policing days.

            As a life long protestor, striker, occupier and picketer, I hope they extend the apparent change in strategy and tactics to the next Māori Nationalist, Union picket or Peace Action.

            My question is what were the main state security agencies and the alphabet soup of security and threat committees attached to the Police, doing in the lead up to the Convoy? and are they earning their pay sorting out online US links to some of the individuals involved?

            • lprent 2.2.1.1.2.1

              I was commenting to my partner who provided me with the "it wasn't a riot until the police turned up" quip related to protests at UoO in the ? 90s, that it has been a while since I recall the police as a group doing anything particularly obnoxious at protests.

              The attitude of individual police is often an issue during confrontations, but they seem to be remarkably well disciplined compared to the days I remember as a springbok tour protester. Most of the injuries I have seen or heard about over the last decade in protests, occupations, etc have been pretty self-inflicted or inadvertently by fellow protesters trying to do something stupid.

              As a protester, you don't resist when arrested. Passively making it noisy and difficult for the police is the name of the game. Then it can argued in court that this was a legitimate protest/occupation/etc on your part as part of your right to peaceful self-expression.

              • McFlock

                At Otago in the 1990s, we knew there was going to be a change in police policy if it went over (I think 8) cops on site. More than whatever the magic number was, control and staffing went from the campus-friendly North Dunedin station to the baton-happy Central station.

                Literal "good cop bad cop".

          • Craig H 2.2.1.1.3

            Totally agree, well said. I would also add that Parliament and its precincts/land are not under the control of the Crown or the Cabinet either, being constitutionally separate, so while Cabinet are MPs, in anything to do with Parliament itself, that's all they are – their positions as ministers of the Crown are not relevant, and any Crown action on Parliamentary land is by agreement/request of the Speaker, not Cabinet.

            • lprent 2.2.1.1.3.1

              Sure. I guess there are people who aren't aware of that.

              However the protesters and their puppet mouth pieces in the media haven't been asking for Trevor to negotiate with them… Personally I shudder at the thought. The mad dogs of parliament have their uses, but peaceful negotiation really isn't one of them. The Speakers job in their various roles is to metaphorically knock heads together until MPs stop posturing long enough to get the work of the house moving.

              • Craig H

                Listening to the radio and reading the news, a lot of reporters don't seem to grasp the nuance, both that the PM shouldn't direct the police (you have summed this up very well), but also that the PM shouldn't direct the Speaker – essentially, the Speaker's actions are somehow the PM's fault, even though that is very much not the case legally, nor should it be constitutionally.

                • lprent

                  Generally I haven't been impressed about journalistic understanding of the nuances of how our system operates. Especially the opinion writers.

                  Some are immigrants, some appear to have only understood politics Muldoon style, and some are just thick.

                  But there aren't too many who have just dug their way through the nuances to the point that their understanding is apparent in their writing.

                  I have to say that my understanding went up pretty strongly in the army training where it was made perfectly clear that we were the troops of the crown, and that government ministers were guests of her majesty.

                  Doing some basic commercial law at uni in the midst of a science degree assisted.

                  As did a baton from the police who'd been forced to deal with Muldoon creating a problem provided a physical emphasis. As did dealing with the precursor of the IPCA when laying a complaint about being batoned in Auckland by a officer who according to tem was in ChCh on that day.

                  After that I just kept reading deeper into our history, the history of the crown and parliament, and just reading legislation and judgements for fun.

                  • Shanreagh

                    Lprent and Craig H. I agree with you both. We are at the clearing out stage not at the negotiation stage. A cross party group and also the Speaker has said go and take your tents with you then we will see.

                    I am hoping that there will be no need for negotiation that normal health related events may overtake them or that some sort Canadian 'experience' may work here. I'd love the Police to get a ruling, if they need to, to get at the funding and where it is coming from.

                    Meantime some Wellingtonians are sleuthing around to find the names of the firms who are supplying these people so we can apply a little people powered boycott on them.

      • Rosemary McDonald 2.2.2

        If one views the protest like a political movement then it can be assumed that as in any political movement/party very often those who put themselves forward as being leaders are the very last who should be trusted with that responsibility. Ego is all for these people.

        One very positive thing the government could do is publicly acknowledge that for far too many compliant kiwis…not the 77% noted in the Poll below…there have been adverse effects from the Pfizer product that go way beyond a 'sore arm and flu like symptoms'.

        Many of these people have suffered from all the symptoms of myo/pericarditis and have been almost universally dismissed by health professionals. At least up until That Urgent Letter https://www.1news.co.nz/2021/12/17/health-providers-urged-to-warn-of-rare-covid-vaccine-side-effects/ sent to health professionals on the 16th December.

        I have family who experienced these symptoms (that were minimized by doctors at the time) and are terrified of being forced to have a booster to keep their jobs.

        Others fear for young adults and children who could suffer the same effects saying that if as adults they thought they were going to die…how is an affected child supposed to deal with that? And why risk an adverse effect when healthy children and young adults are at little to no risk from covid.

        To us…the drive to get everyone to take this Pfizer product regardless of their risk of covid and their potential risk of an (or another) adverse effect is bordering on mindless and more than a little bit crazy.

        Acknowledging these people would be a demonstration of good faith, and go a long way towards reducing the potential influence of the extremists in the crowd.

        As it is…the government's total rejection of any of the protesters issues is feeding this unrest.

        • Nic the NZer 2.2.2.1

          Absolutely agree Rosemary. The government should immediately allow people to submit an adverse event report relating to the vaccine online here

          https://nzphvc.otago.ac.nz/consumer-reporting/

          Or for health care professionals here

          https://nzphvc.otago.ac.nz/report/

          • Rosemary McDonald 2.2.2.1.1

            Why do you think the MOH send out that urgent letter to doctors on the 16th December Nic the NZer? For fun? For shit s and giggles?

            Because despite making reports to CARM, despite folks going to GPs and hospitals with all the symptoms of myo/pericardtis …these people were being dismissed.

            Now…ask yourself why doctors were repeatedly telling sufferers they were just experiencing 'anxiety' when in fact many of them were suffering vaccine induced heart issues?

            • Nic the NZer 2.2.2.1.1.1

              The problem Rosemary is that the narrative your overlaying across these things is horseshit.

              Clearly the MoH is actually paying attention to adverse event reports and at least since the 16th of December (but actually the whole time) asking health care professionals to consider these seriously in their diagnosis.

              All this, including the accepting of reports, public documentation of the numbers of reports received, public documentation of detected events and discussing the response of health care professionals to these reports (and other evidence) has occurred. It also pre-dates the protest.

              I'm sorry that you have (purportedly) only just found out the govt has already responded to your personal protest demands, but having found that out it seems like time to leave then doesn't it (well unless your full of it).

        • weka 2.2.2.2

          One very positive thing the government could do is publicly acknowledge that for far too many compliant kiwis…[…]… there have been adverse effects from the Pfizer product that go way beyond a 'sore arm and flu like symptoms'.

          in order for the government to do this at this time, there would need to be an evidence base that meets the standards of science. Afaik there isn't one.

          There's definitely a problem with the whole thing. MoH underplay it, you overplay it, the anti-vax/mandate sub culture spreads rumours and misinformation and is relatively clueless about evidence and correlation vs causation issues. Stalemate.

          • Rosemary McDonald 2.2.2.2.1

            in order for the government to do this at this time, there would need to be an evidence base that meets the standards of science.

            That Urgent Letter weka. That Urgent Letter. Very publicly sent Urgent Letter.

            Why? Because the fuckers dropped the ball and failed to properly alert doctors to the very real possibility that these…especially young people…could be suffering vaccine induced myo/pericarditis. Had the doctors got the nod from head office they might have treated these people.

            No, the stupid pricks were so concerned that people might be reluctant to partake of the Pfizer product if they knew the risks, that they threw a unacceptable number of people under the bus. For the Greater Good and all that shit.

            Panicked Letter…but too late for too many.

            In the meantime the pearl clutchers on the so called Left have played right into the hands of the tiny handful of far right fuckwits and made this protest about something other than what was the original intent.

            Ending the unjustifiable mandates.

            And I make no apology for persisting in this…these are my kids…your kids…its our moral obligation as the elders to speak up for them.

            • weka 2.2.2.2.1.1

              yes, they dropped the ball. A man died. The MoH responded by issuing advisories to GPs and those delivering covid vaccines where they,

              “…reiterate the importance of timely assessment and management to prevent the serious consequences of myocarditis/pericarditis.”

              It was a known issue when the vax programme started, a man died because he ignored symptoms, and more generally we know that at least some vaccinators weren't telling people what to watch out for and what to do (and general sloppiness around informed consent). I don't know what Rory Nairn was told.

              That however isn't an evidence base for your claim,

              One very positive thing the government could do is publicly acknowledge that for far too many compliant kiwis…[…]… there have been adverse effects from the Pfizer product that go way beyond a 'sore arm and flu like symptoms'.

              • Rosemary McDonald

                …a man died because he ignored symptoms…

                Badly worded weka…victim blaming, much?

                …an evidence base…

                Is being worked on as we speak. You might want to invest some time and attention to this. To the very end. Or not.

                • Just Saying

                  They're not listening, Rosemary. They can just keep smearing anyone and everyone who challenges their beliefs.

                  There are people on the frontline like this woman, and thank god for their work. But you can't do anything here. You really can't.

                  • weka

                    actually you can, so that's you not listening and projecting just like everyone else.

                    I did the mahi last year of talking on TS about the side effect issue for people with chronic illness, and pushing back against the zealots who belief that the vaccine is entirely safe apart from rare events.

                    If you want to take a victim position in the debate, have at it, but I'm still holding a space for nuance. I laid down the challenge to the pro-vax people last year, right now I'm laying it down to Rosemary to up her game. This is what we do here, robust debate. Put your ideas and arguments out and see how they hold up and where they don't you can learn how to improve them.

                    • weka

                      You have to understand I have friends who believe there are going to be mass deaths this year because of the vaccine (as in huge numbers of people are going to die). So my threshold for fearmongering is low, and my threshold for evidence or even credible theory is high.

                    • Just Saying

                      Weka,

                      You need to understand that I don't know anyone who believes there will be mass deaths from the vaccine. Your post about people outside, is the only post on the Standard that includes this claim about mass deaths. There may have been posters making this claim here previously, but I haven't seen any since I've been back.

                      I'm vaccinated and feel no fear for my safety or the safety of those I love, as the result of the vaccine. As you say, drugs have side effects and they, like the benefits, are not equally distributed. My loved ones have been lucky.

                      However, I am concerned about those who have been adversely affected. One case was reported by the coroner, but I don't believe this adverse effect was a one-off. I believe we all need, and are yet to get, accurate information about the incidence of different negative outcomes and that the lack constitutes a kind of gaslighting, that makes for an additional burden on sufferers.

                      I am also not afraid of when I, as we all will, contract the virus. Given the profile of Omicron effects, I wouldn't be afraid of it if I wasn't vaccinated. I'm lucky to not fall into any seriously vulnerable group. But if I was, I'd be more afraid of contracting the flu.

                      I don't feel the government has taken anything like the actions necessary for the most vulnerable now this is endemic, highly infectious, and under almost all circumstances, unavoidable. Attempts at slowing the spread seem to be more about easing the pressure on a hospital system that continues to be grossly under-resourced despite all the billions spent on the lockdowns and other population control measures. So the money was available, and now apparently any (covid) death is unacceptable and no population-wide control measure is too extreme. Unfortunately, this sentiment has not extended to fixing the health system And all the lives this inadequacy will continue to cost. And by lives, I include the limitations on the lives of those with health conditions that could be vastly ameliorated, or freed-up by appropriate, but previously apparently, 'unaffordable' care.

                      As for a victim mentality, I'm curious about whether you have made this claim about posters previously, on all sides of the belief fence.

                    • weka

                      Hi js, good to see you back btw.

                      You need to understand that I don't know anyone who believes there will be mass deaths from the vaccine. Your post about people outside, is the only post on the Standard that includes this claim about mass deaths. There may have been posters making this claim here previously, but I haven't seen any since I've been back.

                      I'm curious how many people you know completely down the rabbit hole. The mass death thing isn't an uncommon belief. I have three friends who I've talked to since the vax programme started, one believes in the deaths, another almost certainly does but I won't listen to that stuff now, and the third probably doesn't but believes things like not that many people have died from covid. I can think of maybe a dozen other people I know who will hold varying rabbit hole beliefs. I've just watched this, which is on the same level of disconnect from reality,

                      Convoy protest 21/2/22

                      This is a big concern, why it is that people are thinking like this, it's well beyond political disagreement.

                      Then I have Rosemary saying things like there are 50,000 people with serious adverse reactions in NZ. I agree with you (and her) that the government hasn't take adverse reactions seriously enough, but I think making claims like Rosemary did and then providing no evidence, is approaching the daftness of the woman in the video above. Or at least, it undermines the credibility. I don't expect the government to engage with that level of information.

                      I am also not afraid of when I, as we all will, contract the virus. Given the profile of Omicron effects, I wouldn't be afraid of it if I wasn't vaccinated. I'm lucky to not fall into any seriously vulnerable group. But if I was, I'd be more afraid of contracting the flu.

                      this is a side argument perhaps, but as someone who is in a vulnerable group, I am not afraid of the flu because I have had it many times over my life, I know and trust my body's response to that set of viruses and I know how to manage it. I don't have any of that with covid, and the post-viral rate from covid is much higher than that from flu and frankly is much weirder. So much we don't know yet.

                      I don't feel the government has taken anything like the actions necessary for the most vulnerable now this is endemic, highly infectious, and under almost all circumstances, unavoidable.

                      Agree.

                      Attempts at slowing the spread seem to be more about easing the pressure on a hospital system that continues to be grossly under-resourced despite all the billions spent on the lockdowns and other population control measures.

                      They're pretty up front that slowing spread is about protecting the health system, not just the hospital, but other aspects like aged care and emergency services.

                      Labour are in the process of quite a major reform of the health system. I haven't looked at it closely enough to have an opinion on that.

                      So the money was available, and now apparently any (covid) death is unacceptable and no population-wide control measure is too extreme.

                      This I disagree with. Reducing death, illness and disability is a key aspect of all public health initiatives, and the covid response is consistent with previous health measures. Obviously there are measures too extreme, or we would still have lockdowns and the borders would remain closed.

                      Unfortunately, this sentiment has not extended to fixing the health system And all the lives this inadequacy will continue to cost. And by lives, I include the limitations on the lives of those with health conditions that could be vastly ameliorated, or freed-up by appropriate, but previously apparently, 'unaffordable' care.

                      Yeah, preaching to the converted there. Disabled people are particularly badly served in NZ. But across the board, we are just really bad at this.

                      As for a victim mentality, I'm curious about whether you have made this claim about posters previously, on all sides of the belief fence.

                      It was more just how you jumped into the conversation earlier.

                  • Just Saying

                    This is getting ridiculous.

                    Your link is international and debunking the claim of the vaccines causing mass deaths. I had already said that I had read this claim on an international site some time ago.

                    What I was seeking a link to was that this was a common belief amongst New Zealanders, specifically those opposing vaccine mandates. Surely with something so devastating there would be websites, Facebook groups etc. Even people somewhere discussing this. After all there would be so many problems in three years time, or even ten – even the basic – what to do about all the dead bodies, let alone all the logistical problems.

                    Weka, I was trying to debate in good faith.

                    note I regret the placement problem.

                • weka

                  …a man died because he ignored symptoms…

                  Badly worded weka…victim blaming, much?

                  All pharmaceuticals have side effects. All of them. Culturally we are bad at talking about this. Men have a tendency to ignore symptoms, she'll be right. It's a known health issue. That's not victim blaming.

                  My understanding is that Nairn had symptoms for a number of days and didn't seek medical help until it was too late.

                  Watched bits of the vid. That's not an evidence base that the government can make a statement from. It's not even an evidence base that is useful to this debate. I will say it again, the counter culture you are a part of has to learn science literacy, what evidence is, what it isn't, correlation vs causation, how to present information in coherent and succinct ways, if they want to be taken seriously.

                  It's shit, but that's just the way it is. I have a patient's rights back ground, I cut my teeth reading about the Cartwright Inquiry. I listened to a lot of people's stories over a number of years about the problems they were having with the health system. What you are talking about is that, but also you are trying to make claims based in science and you just don't have the language to make that make sense. Learn how to do that and then engage with the mainstream.

                  • Just Saying

                    This paper reports on myocarditis post-vaccination. It is in the latest issue of JAMA from the last couple of days, I think. Just saw it today and I believe the post vaccination rates constitute a major increase on the background rate.

                    Sorry, I haven't done well with this. I'm doing a couple of things that need proper attention and I'm clearly not multi -taking well today.

                    But read it for yourselves. I do have to go away and attend to other things.

                    Weka, I have to come back to our conversation.

                    Myocarditis Cases Reported After mRNA-Based COVID-19 Vaccination in the US From December 2020 to August 2021 | Cardiology | JAMA | JAMA Network

                    And this is my weak attempt at a preview:

                    of myocarditis were highest after the second vaccination dose in adolescent males aged 12 to 15 years (70.7 per million doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine), in adolescent males aged 16 to 17 years (105.9 per million doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine), and in young men aged 18 to 24 years (52.4 and 56.3 per million doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine and the mRNA-1273 vaccine, respectively). There were 826 cases of myocarditis among those younger than 30 years of age who had detailed clinical information available; of these cases, 792 of 809 (98%) had elevated troponin levels, 569 of 794 (72%) had abnormal electrocardiogram results, and 223 of 312 (72%) had abnormal cardiac magnetic resonance imaging results. Approximately 96% of persons (784/813) were hospitalized and 87% (577/661) of these had resolution of presenting symptoms by hospital discharge. The most common treatment was nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (589/676; 87%)

                    • georgecom

                      pfizer has some risk of myocarditis in younger males, astrazeneca blood clots in younger females. so if someone has a bad reaction to one, eg myocarditis, there is a safe alternative

                    • Nic the NZer

                      I had a careful look at this paper the other day. It seems reasonable given the available material, but we also need to consider the limitations. These are basically described straight forwardly in the study in some way.

                      Its a VAERS based analysis, so the estimate of the base rate of the conditions are an estimate, not coming from a control group. If the population rate were slightly higher this can have a large effect on the conclusions, more on that later.

                      The study shows that myocarditis is elevated inside a limited time frame following vaccination. There are however plenty of claims floating around of elevated risk outside that time frame (2 weeks) and these claims are not supported by the study.

                      The study shows that myocarditis is elevated within a particular age distribution. This does mean people claiming myocarditis is impacting 100s in rest homes are giving you the intellectual equivalent of saying the vaccine turned them into a Newt. With that obligatory Monty Python reference out of the way…

                      A lot of the reporting focused on the extremes with headlines referencing the most extreme possibility of the most extreme age category. The reference was to a rate calculated as the upper percentile of the estimated rate divided by the lower percentile of the expected population rate (for 16-17 year olds).

                      Maybe the biggest limitation of the study is the potential cofounding of myocarditis after covid infection. As previous covid infection data is not collected in relation to VAERS reports there is no way to identify if the background rate of myocarditis is significantly impacted by viral infections which were also running through the population.

                      From other studies we have some idea that myocarditis is elevated inside a similar age range for as long as several months after a covid-19 infection. So the study should be looked at considering it may not be possible to draw strong conclusions from it, however.

                      Its also worth keeping in mind recovery was by far the usual outcome of the treatment.

                  • Just Saying

                    Weka,

                    In that case we really, really, need to talk.

                    People I know are only, like me, 'down the rabbit hole' of their own lives. And that's hard enough. I know no-one who believes in anything like 'mass deaths' etc. We are a pragmatic bunch. Maybe I need a more interesting circle. Not amongst my acquaintances or anecdotally about anyone in NZ. I did see that claim on an international site months ago but it didn't seem remotely widespread even amongst the quasi-spiritual folk in the US.

                    I'm aware of some with spiritual beliefs about covid in NZ. But from what I can figure out, it pertains to a second-coming in the spirit of the people. All positive peace and love. Again not people close.

                    And think about it. If mass death belief was widespread the believers would be scared out of their wits. With the numbers of vaccinated they would believe themselves to be facing the dark horror version of 'The Quiet Earth'. First problem: what to do with all the orphaned children. Second problem: with the bodies and the panic stricken later vaccinated. Then progressively their bodies … and so on. I'm not seeing that. I'm not seeing anything like kind of fear and haven't seen anything like it from footage of the occupations, or anywhere else.

                    50,000 people with serious adverse reactions in NZ.

                    I don't know what the rates are. I've heard of some bad effects. Not that many, not people close to me, but people known by people. The blackout of information makes it impossible to know. Earlier I posted JAMA paper which is a small start. Too little too late. But a start.

                    …I am not afraid of the flu because I have had it many times over my life…

                    Novel virus, I know, but we are late to the party. Most of the world must have had exposure by now. I'm not trying to be harsh. It's hard, but the experts knew this virus couldn't be eradicated months before it was publicly acknowledged. Adern must have known, and if not, that may be even worse.

                    My previous career was about information, and I've had a bit of time on my hands. The public has been 'managed' rather than informed and I really don't like that.

                    but other aspects like aged care and emergency services.

                    That's true, but in all that time almost nothing has been done and there is no plan for protecting the vulnerable. My brother and I even spent quite a bit of time on our own brainstorming. I can't believe the government could just carry on like some robot. So much could have been done. So much. The public could have contributed to both the discussion and later to the work. There is an appetite to be of some real help, imo. As it is there are home caregivers in a state of terrible apprehension. No information, no discussion, no public experts advising. Zilch.

                    Reducing death, illness and disability is a key aspect of all public health initiatives,….

                    That's true, there has been a real commitment to this.

                    …and the covid response is consistent with previous health measures…

                    Ummmm sorry, I think we might have to agree to disagree.

                    Obviously there are measures too extreme..

                    Yes, that was hyperbole and my bad.

                    We've got to stop the polarisation somehow. I am trying to cut the snark and the tone and the sarcasm. But the contempt and the ostracism and the smearing – it causes me pain. I identify with the hated.

                  • Shanreagh

                    Weka as one who has been studying these Conspiracy theories, I started doing this inadvertently, the mass death is a common one. Sometimes it has a timeline of three years, five years or next year. It is related to what is contained in the vaccine.

                    The mass death thing isn't an uncommon belief. I have three friends who I've talked to since the vax programme started, one believes in the deaths, another almost certainly does but I won't listen to that stuff now, and the third probably doesn't but believes things like not that many people have died from covid.

                    • weka

                      yes, and also related to the population being controlled, although it's always clear what the point of that is.

                    • Just Saying

                      And as always no proof required. The timeline becomes three years now yet no links here or anywhere else. And frankly if I believed that 95% of the population was going to die in three years, I'd be terrified.

                      So what next? Twenty years?

                      You are seriously smearing a large swathe of people with no proof. Would one of your friends be kind enough to come here and share the details, including how they came to such wild convictions.

                      And its so easy to do this. Yet we receive a blast of smears at the suggestion of linking to an elderly nursing teacher and PhD who has been collating international covid information since the beginning, diligently going over actual data, all linked. And why? He disagrees with some of the wilder ideas promulgated on this site. Which makes him what? A lunatic from the extreme right, a nazi? Anything anyone likes with no proof required.

                      This is ridiculous. I can't believe you can't provide any proof that those who disagree with you have suddenly lost their minds. By definition apparently.

                      As for the occupation Weka, I've been involved in really tightly controlled activism (We still couldn't keep the White Power and others out. Because it was a public space.) But aside from that we were so well behaved and on message it wasn't funny. And what did what were actually big organising efforts achieve?

                      Absolutely nothing.

                      Maybe what we are seeing is something new. Real working class people absolutely fed up and ready to take real action on goals. People who aren't concerned about middle class disapproval. The actual grassroots. All ages, people from vastly different mindscapes actually willing to live together, get to know each other, even be wrong at times (god forbid) and learn.

                      And young people. Don't know about you Weka, but the dearth of the young, the lifeblood of effective activism – this was a longtime worry for me. The youth of learning and being prepared to do something different. Along other generations working together. And not caring about being respectable and acceptable. Wasn't there a time, a long long time ago………..

                    • Shanreagh

                      Just Saying: Well if you want to go onto any Conspiracy website you will find these CTs and when the claims appear on Facebook etc they are routinely 'fact checked' out. They are removed with a note left in place about it.

                      https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-mrna-vaccines-idUSKCN2AU2KR

                      I don't know who the elderly person is that you refer to…..so that point is lost on me. I would probably be classed by some as elderly too so my views, backed up by reputable and rational sources do not count?

                      Any person, old or young, who promulgates this kind of Conspiracy theory as belief needs help.

                      And frankly if I believed that 95% of the population was going to die in three years, I'd be terrified.

                      But why would you believe this unless some thing had seriously gone awry in your ability to sniff out a con or to analyse?

                      Like racists I give nothing to conspiracy theories or those who espouse them.

                    • Just Saying

                      Yet those espousing these conspiracies on this site are you and Weka.

                      I was talking to Weka, but she started talking about what we we discussing with you Shanreagh, instead of replying to me. And after expressing that she believed in robust debate.

                      You haven't linked to anyone actually saying what you are claiming to is not an ''uncommon'' belief. Weka is saying she has three friends who hold it.

                      So where are all these people who hold this 'common' belief?

                • weka

                  Wondering what you think of this 2 min video Rosemary?

                  • Shanreagh

                    Please I am not 'espousing'

                    ie (adopting or supporting (a cause, belief, or way of life)

                    these conspiracy theories…..if you believe that you are completely misunderstanding what I am saying. Just because I know where to find references to them does mean I 'espouse' them.

                    I have studied these CTs just out of interest over many years mainly from the point of view of the break down of logical thought that they illustrate. I believe CTs exist and people believe them.

                    CT have a pernicious influence on people. They are a form of mind control.

                    There are many CTs throughout the world on all manner of things 9/11 man on the moon, lizard people, Illuminati, pedophile circle based in a pizza restaurant and basements at the Whitehouse, etc etc. Hundreds and hundreds of them. The Covid ones have been sheeted home to a group called the Disinformation Dirty Dozen

                    https://www.counterhate.com/disinformationdozen

                    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/17/covid-misinformation-conspiracy-theories-ccdh-report

                    If you do not believe their influence then have a look at the memes being looked at by anti vaxxers who subsequently die of Covid. They provide a consistent view of the reach of these CTs. NZ has even had one feature on one of these sites.

                    Herman Cain award website

                    https://www.sorryantivaxxer.com/

                    Weka are you able to help me persuade JS that I do not espouse anti vaxx conspiracy theories. I find it personally very distressing as it is antithetical to the way I think and have always thought.

                    • weka

                      JS is just pointing out that it's only you and me talking about the vaccine mass death theory. They seem to think it's not an actual thing and we are making it up. I've given them a link and a google search suggestion now.

            • Andrew Miller 2.2.2.2.1.2

              Please leave my kids out of it.

              If you want to dress your anti science bs in sanctimonious claims about concerns for people’s welfare that’s your business, please stop pretending this has anything to do a broad concern for everyone’s welfare.

              77% on site are unvaccinated.
              If you can explain why I and my family should be put at additional risk of serious illness by the choices of people to deny the science around vaccines(and please don’t insult our intelligence that it’s anything other than than.) what ever their reason for it may be, or should us the evidence that the unvaccinated present no additional risk, then you may be worth taking seriously.

        • georgecom 2.2.2.3

          these people should then investigate the AstraZeneca vaccine. It is there for such people. Having to get a prescription for it I think is overkill and not necessary, I went to get it as a booster but couldn't be faffed getting a prescription. However if someone needs a booster but doesn't want pfizer, AZ is the alternative

          • Shanreagh 2.2.2.3.1

            Weka my position is that I do not want to give airtime discussing these CTs. We know they exist. There are plenty of places where you can look at the scams and misery they cause without us here having to pitch in.

            Having to explain about CTs & scams to the likes of JS, The Chairman and T Smithfield makes me very sad.

    • Nick 2.3

      I did laugh out loud when I read….unbiassed intellectual heavy hitters like Heather Du Plessis Allan, Sean Plunkett, Bryce Edwards and Russell Coutts…. Here are four simple reasons.

      But anyway, I thought the main emphasis of the commissioners interview was De-escalateion. Seems a reasonable plan. Failing that, Wellington weather might work.

    • mikesh 2.4

      The word "government" is used in more than one sense. sometimes it refers to the actual regime currently in power, namely the cabinet and caucus, and sometimes the actual institution running the country, the regime plus the civil service.

      • mikesh 2.4.1

        If the regime (ie Jacinda) were to engage, or enter into negotiations, with the protesters, it would be seen as a triumph for the latter, and a validation of the "protest". However, if negotiations are handled by the police, as part of "government" in the broader sense of the word, it would be seen as them attempting to routinely manage the situation.

        True leadership is not, as some would claim, a matter of Jacinda fronting up to the protesters, but of her simply ignoring them, so that, when they eventually leave, they will be seen as having achieved precisely nothing.

    • Treetop 2.5

      It comes down to the legislation available that Coster can use.

      A big concern for me is that there are children in the grounds of parliament and in the surrounding streets.

      A vaccine or a mask mandate is never going to work for everyone.

      Would widening a vaccine or a mask exemption for the anti vaccine and anti mask group make a difference?

      • Dennis Frank 2.5.1

        The PM has no intention of being that flexible. I watched her interviews on both breakfast tv shows this morning & thought she did well. But!

        She said the protestors have made their point & should go home now. Has she learnt nothing from prior similar situations?! They are occupying the site to get desired results – they didn't go there just to make a point! 🙄

        • Treetop 2.5.1.1

          The hardest call for the PM is the unknown. The efficacy of the current vaccines when it comes to the transmission of Omicron and the Delta variant. It is reassuring to know that hospital admissions are reduced among the double and boosted vaccinated group.

        • The Chairman 2.5.1.2

          They are occupying the site to get desired results – they didn't go there just to make a point!

          Speaking of making their point, can anybody point me to where Jacinda has acknowledged their reasons for being there. All I've seen her say is similar to what Grant has said – ie conspiracy theories etc but I haven't seen either of them concede about them being there because Government mandates. Therefore, has Jacinda actually got their point?

          • In Vino 2.5.1.2.1

            Chairman – most of them are there because they have always hated Jacinda; have a right-wing bias, and are using this mandate stuff to pretend that they are 'ordinary Kiwis'. Bullshit – they are a pushy, deceptive minority.

            Let's see how big real public support for them is. They will eventually have to scuttle out.

            • The Chairman 2.5.1.2.1.1

              Most of them are there because they have always hated Jacinda…

              Evidence required for this claim of fact – thanks.

              • mac1

                In fact, The Chairman, you are right about the protesters actually loving their Prime Minister as they are heartbroken by her refusal to meet with them…….

                That is why the air in the forecourt of Parliament was filled with the cries of protest of the fans of the Prime Minister at the threats, the name-calling, the mysogyny, that were on display; and the way the offending signage was torn down immediately by enraged Prime Ministerial supporters.

                I bet you did your bit there, eh?

          • Shanreagh 2.5.1.2.2

            https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/02/protesters-even-less-likely-to-get-audience-with-prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-after-throwing-human-waste-at-police.html

            'We'll be able to move away from vaccine passes and many mandates because more people will have had COVID," she said in a speech at the Beehive.

            She pointedly denied she was pressured into it by the mob outside.

            "When that happens, it will be because easing restrictions won't compromise the lives of thousands of people – not because you demanded it."

            I fail to see why the Govt should meet with the protesters let alone negotiate.

            They have said they want to kill politicians, they have thrown human waste at Police and are emptying human waste into the storm water drains that wend their way out to some of Wellington's swimming beaches. Sewage in stormwater drains……..

            I have not checked back but how did you go after the various explanations about the conspiracy theory that the disaffected Doctor gave you? I presume that was what happened?

            These plus OTT demands are not the actions of people who are serious about negotiating.

            They have been told that the very basic conditions to be met are to leave and take your tents and structures with you. I am hoping that events will overtake the need for anyone to meet the protestors either by NZ going through and coming out the other side of the Covid surge thus obviating the need for some/many of the current health precautions, or we adopt the Canadian solution. I don't think they met anyone in Govt, health events moved on and the eviction was/is surprisingly uneventful.

            They did get emergency powers to help them freeze the bank accounts and this was a major help. Police in Canada could have asked the Courts for access to the accounts but time was of the essence. It would be great if NZ Police could get access to freeze the organisers' bank accounts

            • The Chairman 2.5.1.2.2.1

              'We'll be able to move away from vaccine passes and many mandates….

              She seems to be saying that (or similar) a lot more since the protest began. Rack 1 up for them.

              She pointedly denied she was pressured into it by the mob…

              Well of course she would say that considering her stance. Can't have it looking as if they racked 1 up.

              Nevertheless, that wasn't an acknowledgement for why they are there.

              I fail to see why the Govt should meet with the protesters let alone negotiate.

              Perhaps the human rights commissioner can help you see why.

              Paul Hunt said the situation playing out on Parliament grounds constituted a crisis, and the Government needed to do more to engage in a critical, respectful dialogue if it hoped to restore a feeling of safety and belonging.

              https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/wellington-top-stories/127831146/fostering-inclusion-means-listening-to-protesters–human-rights-commissioner

              And what about the frustration, fear, and inconvenience of Wellingtonians?

              Are they merely collateral damage due to her maintaining this stance?

              Additionally, what about the unnecessary risk and harm placed on the police? Cannon fodder?

              The more the police are pressured to be seen to act the more they antagonize the protesters, thus vastly increasing the risk of harm. A car was driven at them today.

              While the left are looking for Nazi influence the opposition is becoming more opportunist. Rack another 1 up for the protesters for seemingly inciting the mandate discussion in the house.

              And what about walking her own talk?

              • McFlock

                She seems to be saying that (or similar) a lot more since the protest began. Rack 1 up for them.

                If someone has to repeat something in smaller words because you're having a tantrum and throwing shit around, it's not a point to you.

                • The Chairman

                  Smaller words

                  Soundbites

                  The majority aren't having a tantrum and throwing shit around but you seem to be. laugh

                  • McFlock

                    Ah. You mean figurative shit-throwing, not literal. I'm sure you never saw any of that while you were there, along with everything else you've failed to spot.

              • Muttonbird

                You are grasping at straws there, mate.

                To any sane observer, moving away from passes and mandates ie, ending the Covid Protection Framework is a given once the threat of Covid has passed.

                The protestors, including yourself, are conspiracy theorists by nature so refuse to read, understand, and believe the simplest of things if it comes from authority. Particularly from authority in the form of a young, progressive female.

                Good luck to you.

                • The Chairman

                  To any sane observer, moving away from passes and mandates ie, ending the Covid Protection Framework is a given once the threat of Covid has passed.

                  Yet, despite passes and mandates Jacinda expects we will all know people who have Covid, or we will potentially get it ourselves. Which doesn't say much for passes and mandates.

                  All for a disease Jacinda says for most will be a mild to moderate illness.

                  Yes, I know, passes and mandates are there to slow hospital admissions but daily workplace testing offers an alternative way to achieve that.

                  Even the head of the Royal New Zealand College of General Practitioners is calling for a “change in mindset,” Saying we will learn to live with it in the same way we do with colds and flu.

                  Moreover, you say it's a "given" once the threat of Covid has "passed". Yet, Jacinda says it will go well beyond the peak.

                  Insisting "they will remain important in some areas though, for some time." Stating a "narrowing" not an end.

                  Moving towards a "new normal" – not back to normal.

                  https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/461974/easing-of-restrictions-to-begin-well-beyond-omicron-peak-ardern

                  I don't care if she was a grumpy old man opposed to a young, progressive female.

                  She's a slippery one that one. No wonder people don't trust her.

                  • McFlock

                    Even the head of the Royal New Zealand College of General Practitioners is calling for a “change in mindset,” Saying we will learn to live with it in the same way we do with colds and flu.

                    In six to twelve months. Well after the omicron peak. Nothing to do with the current bunch of nutbars.

                    • The Chairman

                      He said the pandemic will come to an end in the next six to 12 months. He's calling for a change of mindset now.

                      Noting this could be difficult for the elderly, isolated and those that have co-morbidities or live in areas of high deprivation. Stating it's crucial that the necessary support is in place and that the appropriate medical care is available for them.

                      He’s concerned about the impact of winter, thus the focus on other health issues and illnesses that are waiting in the wings.

                    • McFlock

                      But not demanding an immediate end to all mandates, or the hanging of politicians.

                      So nothing relevant to the rabble around parliament.

                    • The Chairman

                      But not demanding an immediate end to all mandates…

                      We've been through this before. He said will learn to live with it in the same way we do with colds and flu. So he's on the same page in that regards.

                      And there's not many calling for the hanging of politicians.

                      Therefore, that part isn’t relevant to the majority of protesters around parliament.

                    • McFlock

                      Well shit, in that case it looks like even I'm on the same page as the rabble's true demands, if all their stated demands are either unrealistic negotiating strategies or only seriously proposed by a small minority of extremists.

                      Of course, if the stated objectives of the rabble are actually serious, Betty's comments are irrelevant to the rabble's demands.

                    • The Chairman

                      Well shit, in that case it looks like even I'm on the same page…

                      Well it's not to late to partake in the next large nationwide convoy planned for this weekend. They are leaving from both ends of the country.

                      I think many of the protesters would be happy if we started treating it like the cold and flu, So yes, on the same page.

                    • McFlock

                      Totally the same page, as long as they don't actually mean what they say.

                      We can all agree that covid sucks and mandates are difficult. As long as they don't mean anything beyond that, despite their demands and actions saying otherwise.

                    • The Chairman

                      Totally the same page…

                      Indeed. I think an agreement could be found on that. Treating it like the cold or flu

                  • lprent

                    Yes, I know, passes and mandates are there to slow hospital admissions but daily workplace testing offers an alternative way to achieve that

                    SO your solution to replace mandates is you want to force the vaccinated to have a daily medical procedure?

                    You aren’t that good on thinking the implications through – are you!

                    In your world, what would you want yo do if they refused and caused the unvaccinated to be repeatably be infected?

                    • The Chairman

                      SO your solution to replace mandates is you want to force the vaccinated to have a daily medical procedure?

                      RAT's aren't a major medical procedure and it would only be temporary.

                      Additionally, this could also be done alongside the pass for those that are already vaccinated, allowing the unvaccinated back to work.

      • Shanreagh 2.5.2

        Surely if they have discussed this preference not to have the mRNA vaccine with a health professional the choice of another vaccine would have been put forward.

        I suspect though, the majority will be getting their health info off the Internet, doing their own research. Some believe that Covid actually does not exist and that people who have had the vaccine have been injected with Covid.

        Masks give you lung cancer didn't you know.

        The criteria for mask exemptions are quite tight. Woo woo about lung cancer won't get your Dr to support your request.

        https://www.health.govt.nz/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-health-advice-

        https://covid19.govt.nz/prepare-and-stay-safe/keep-up-healthy-habits/wear-a-face-mask/who-does-not-need-to-wear-a-face-mask/

    • McFlock 2.6

      So the cops negotiated with prominent protesters about the barriers, the rabble didn't get the message and still ended up with some getting arrested or literally throwing shit.

      Doesn't bode well for sitting down with these fools, does it.

      • Dennis Frank 2.6.1

        I suspect his thing is perseverence. Some negotiators are better than others so he may have learnt from that failure & be using someone else. That interview made me see him as a true believer in non-violent conflict resolution. Christian guy too…

        • McFlock 2.6.1.1

          No True Negotiator fallacy, lol

          The group has said repeatedly it has no leadership. There is nobody to negotiate with.

          • weka 2.6.1.1.1

            Schrodinger's leadership. Leadership either exists or doesn't exist depending on the observer.

            (but there are groups there, with leaders, who are speaking in a leadership fashion).

            • weka 2.6.1.1.1.1

              will also point out that you don't technically need leaders in the conventional sense to negotiate with either the police or the government, although having a consistent person/people for continuity would work better and not drive everyone mad.

              • McFlock

                Yeah we used to do it regularly with student protests – coherent point of contact with the local cops, then a big meeting to decide which way to go.

                Seems like the rabble is a mix of groups, but they're still in that leadership cadre mindset. A restaurant of cooks and no waiters, pretending to be a commune.

            • Nic the NZer 2.6.1.1.1.2

              Schrodinger's leadership is even further to the point. In quantum mechanics the act of observation changes the outcome. As were discovering with the protests the acts of leadership change who is considered the leader.

              • Dennis Frank

                Well the non-leader thing had a counter-culture origin:

                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Youth_International_Party

                But I agree that practicality of leadership works best via the act of observation. Such as in observing who's available at the time & agreeing on the best option from that lot. Enables a group to finesse the ego trap (narcissism generated by status). Downside is relative to the number of contenders with actual talent for leadership who are available….

              • McFlock

                This south park clip seems relevant in identifying the leader of the rabble.

                Although I don't recommend the solution they come up with – fortunately that's in a different clip.

      • The Chairman 2.6.2

        There is a large crowd there with some coming and going all the time. Moreover, people are eating, cooking, washing and doing all number of things. They are not all based around the main stage

        Thus, it was more a case of not everyone knowing. Hence, this shows time will be needed for discussion and the word to get around within this large group.

        Additionally, a Government announcement re negotiation will muster far more attention within the crowd than merely an announcement regarding road blockages.

        • Shanreagh 2.6.2.1

          This is crazy talk. Why would the Govt be negotiating when the protesters have not fulfilled the request to cease trespassing on Parliament Grounds?

          Are they ignoring this? Obviously they are.

    • aom 2.7

      So you don't understand the basic concepts that underlie a democracy then. Better go join the protest then where you would be in familiar territory.

  3. Micky, if this survey, just done by Curia of the actual protesters, is correct, then any Nazis present must be keeping a very low profile:

    https://theplatform.kiwi/opinions/parliamentary-protest-poll-results-february-2022

    Note, that, according to the poll, the left is more strongly represented than the right, and that Maori are strongly represented in the protest at 27%.

    Probably the biggest common factor between the protesters is their vaccination status with nearly 77% being unvaccinated.

    • observer 3.1

      Which is pretty conclusive proof that it's about the vaccine more than the mandates.

      The poll methodology is unusual, and leaves it open to question, but at least Curia get some credit for trying to get data in very difficult circumstances.

      (and we need to get off this "Nazi" debate that goes nowhere, we might as well ask protesters "Are you a child-molester?" and not surprisingly, zero per cent said they were).

    • weka 3.2

      Micky, if this survey, just done by Curia of the actual protesters, is correct, then any Nazis present must be keeping a very low profile:

      Do you know who CounterSpin are?

      • tsmithfield 3.2.1

        I tend to stay away from conspiracy madness. But I understand it is a NZ version of infowars?

        Having looked at infowars on rare occasions, that seems to be more attuned towards conspiracy nuttiness and misinformation rather than Nazism. So, if counterspin is anything like that, I would imagine it would be high on conspiracy and anti-vax messages more than anything else.

        • weka 3.2.1.1

          If you don't understand who CounterSpin are, and their deep involvement in the protest, then you cannot understand why the small number of actual Nazis at the protests matters.

          Please stop guessing and get informed instead.

          • tsmithfield 3.2.1.1.1

            I haven't denied the presence of Nazis. Just that they must be keeping a very low profile if they are there.

            • weka 3.2.1.1.1.1

              I was referring to this,

              I tend to stay away from conspiracy madness. But I understand it is a NZ version of infowars?

              Having looked at infowars on rare occasions, that seems to be more attuned towards conspiracy nuttiness and misinformation rather than Nazism. So, if counterspin is anything like that, I would imagine it would be high on conspiracy and anti-vax messages more than anything else.

              You cannot understand the significance of the Nazis if you won't know who CounterSpin are and what their involvement has been and is.

              (likewise with other organisations, but start with them)

              • weka

                if you go back to the first Convoy protest post, you will see articles from Newsroom (Daalder) and Stuff (Mitchell). Read those, then read the more recent posts from both. That's a good foundation.

            • tsmithfield 3.2.1.1.1.2

              I have read this article, which is enough for me. Not a site I really want to have anything to do with.

              https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/127741171/inside-the-disorienting-contradictory-swirl-of-the-convoy-as-seen-through-its-media-mouthpiece

              I agree, some of those in the article seem to have been very active in the protest group at the start. But now, if they are still there, they certainly don't seem to be up to those sorts of antics anymore. So, as I said, they must be keeping a low profile if still there.

              I like to try and stay as rational as I can, and a lot of the stuff on those sort of sites definitely isn’t.

              Probably why I comment a lot more here now than on Kiwiblog. I like reading the articles there, but the comments section seems to have become infested with anti-vaxxers and climate-change denialists now, which I find really annoying.

        • Shanreagh 3.2.1.2

          I don't think you can comment on what is happening at the protests and what might be the open and hidden aims, without knowing who Counterspin, Steve Bannon National Front, Alp, Arps, and the various serious malcontents who there.

          Then there are the anti vaxxers, and this is really about anti vaxx, in my view.

          David Farrier provided an overview of the anti vaxx movement back in Oct 2021 and many of those mentioned are represented at the protest or helped with the organisation.

          https://www.webworm.co/p/loopy?utm_source=url

          Then there is the Church represented by Brian Tamaki that has an influence and a hold with the tithing systems.

          NB Mainstream Christian churches are not anti vax. Some Pentecostal and evangelical churches, here and in the US too are anti vaxx and provide $$$$ to anti vaxx movements, Look for ideas such as the 'mark of the beast' about people who have been vaccinated.

          All of these people/groups have/are having an influence there. Counterspin provides the day to day broadcasting etc etc.

          • tsmithfield 3.2.1.2.1

            Yeah. So it sounds like a conspiracy site that a wide variety from the lunatic-fringe including Neo-Nazis go to. The reason I think it is more conspiracy rather than Neo-Nazi is that many of those groups seem to have back-grounds completely opposite to white-supremicist movements.

            For instance, Brian Tamaki and his group, whatever you want to label them, wouldn't be white supremacists. Could Brian Tamaki's group be considered "Nazis" despite not being white supremacists? I don't know.

            But they all seem bound together by crazy conspiracy ideas which, perhaps, causes some to overlook the otherwise completely contradictory positions.

            • Shanreagh 3.2.1.2.1.1

              I would not call Brian Tamaki a Nazi. Neo Nazis and their sympathisers are not the only ones fomenting discord. He, his church and others are in the mix and calling to and drawing from different crowds. It is a a smorgasbord of views or a pick and mix.

              The key point to me is that a great number of them are anti vaxx under the surface, dressed up as anti mandate.

    • Enough is Enough 3.3

      Note, that, according to the poll, the left is more strongly represented than the right, and that Maori are strongly represented in the protest at 27%.

      That has been fairly obvious from observing the protests and the messages being delivered.

      If you think any of them are nazis, don't acknowledge or negotiate with them. Then get on and discuss matters with the others (being the vast majority)

    • Muttonbird 3.4

      Farrar is very skilled at producing poll results to fit his narrative.

      • tsmithfield 3.4.1

        You may think that. But it is probably the best information available on the make-up of the protest group. Anything else is anecdotal I think.

        • Muttonbird 3.4.1.1

          That makes his results more dangerous, imo. He has a clear, well established political narrative and is manufacturing misinformation to suit that narrative under the legitimacy of official polling.

          • tsmithfield 3.4.1.1.1

            From the link:

            "CODE COMPLIANCE: This poll was conducted in accordance with the Research Association New Zealand Code of Practice and the International Chamber of Commerce/European Society for Opinion and Market Research Code on Market and Social Research.''

          • higherstandard 3.4.1.1.2

            If he is manufacturing information to suit a narrative you should make a complaint.

            This is known in the industry as ‘SUGGING’ or ‘selling under the guise’ of conducting genuine research and is prohibited by the Research Association and the Marketing Association’s Codes of Practice. Companies that are not members of these organisations are not bound by those codes. However they may be in breach of the Commerce and Privacy Acts.

            https://www.researchassociation.org.nz/Is-it-genuine-research

      • felix 3.4.2

        He's very skilled at polling. There's a reason why the best resourced political actors in nz employ him and not someone else.

        What exactly do you imagine his agenda is in publishing this data which basically just aligns with the anecdotal evidence anyway?

        • Muttonbird 3.4.2.1

          His agenda of course is to damage the Labour government wherever possible, at the same time trying to keep distance between himself and the protest which he is using to do that damage.

          Farrar must be unique amongst pollsters in this country anyway in that he is nakedly partisan political, yet still touted as authoritative and trustworthy in a field I imagined was supposed to be apolitical/neutral.

        • Muttonbird 3.4.2.2

          Also, his angle seems to be that the protestors are Labour supporters. The question would have been, "what party did you vote for last election?"

          Perhaps they were Labour supporters last election, most people were.

          Not now though, now they are firmly on the anarchist/far right spectrum. That fact, and their current behaviour are not separable.

          Pretending this violent anti-vax crowd are lefties is exactly the kind of misinformation Farrar is spreading, just as the protestors spread human shit over the police and into the harbour.

    • Gabby 3.5

      Interesting that Curia was able to conduct a poll. Very interesting.

      • tsmithfield 3.5.1

        And quite hazardous for the researchers probably, especially, now that police at the protest site are coming down with Covid.

        https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington/127835337/police-officers-on-duty-at-the-parliament-occupation-test-positive-for-covid19

        • alwyn 3.5.1.1

          "police at the site".

          I think you would find, if the police were to release the numbers, that almost every police officer in the Wellington Region has been at the site of the protest at some time in the last couple of weeks. There are about 800 sworn officers in the Wellington Region. That is Wellington up to and including Kapiti on the West and the whole of the Wairarapa. There were about 300 of them there this morning.

          It isn't relevant that the ones who have been at the protest are getting Covid. They have probably all been there. The more interesting number would be how many, if any, of the Wellington Region sworn staff haven't been there at some time.

        • Muttonbird 3.5.1.2

          No, no. Those researchers were among friends.

      • alwyn 3.5.2

        All you need to do to see why they were able to conduct a poll is to go down there and see the protesters. You will be quite safe. I tried it myself over the weekend. Not to join in the protest but just to see what the people were like.

        You will be quite safe, unless perhaps you were to say how much you like Mallard's choice of music. I'm sure him getting that crap played would qualify as cruel and unusual punishment even if not quite torture. So just go and try it. You don't have to be a scaredy cat.

        • Gypsy 3.5.2.1

          I have a friend who lives in the Wairarapa, also has an apartment in Wellington. He is totally anti the protest, but went along to check it out. He noted the presence of the usual loony fringe, but said the tone was calm and peaceful.

        • Muttonbird 3.5.2.2

          What if you were wearing a mask, would you be safe then?

  4. Ad 4
    1. Negotiating with no mandate.

    You get lots of negotiators to negotiate: for a large rock, bring lots of chisels. The Police are doing exactly that.

    1. Their claims are extreme.

    Admit in public that we are living in extreme times and extreme actions have been taken. Admit Mallard was an idiot. Admit it's been mishandled as the Police have. Be humble. Provide decisionmaking timetables. Keep coming back with updates.

    1. There are actual NAZIs present.

    Don't negotiate with the NAZIs.

    1. Don't retreat from the mandate

    Provide evidence that it remains worth it, and for how long it will be worth it.

    • weka 4.1

      There's still this dilemma,

      • Ad 4.1.1

        Those threatening harm should be arrested and put in front of a judge.

        Then reward the most rational. Kentucky Fried works.

        • weka 4.1.1.1

          Is it against the law to say you want to execute MPs and journalists?

          • Ad 4.1.1.1.1

            I'd welcome the Police testing it in court if I were threatened like that.

            • weka 4.1.1.1.1.1

              which law are you thinking of?

              • The Al1en

                ?

                Threatening to kill or injure you

                Crimes Act 1961, s 306

                It’s a criminal offence for someone to threaten to kill you or threaten to seriously injure you (cause you “grievous bodily harm”), or to send you a letter, text, email or other written material containing this kind of threat. The person can be jailed for up to seven years for this.

                Intimidating you through threatening injury or property damage

                Summary Offences Act 1981, s 21

                It’s a criminal offence for someone to threaten to injure you or damage your property, if they intended to frighten or intimidate you or knew that these were the kind of threats likely to frighten or intimidate any reasonable person.

                For this a person can be jailed for up to three months or fined up to $2,000.

                https://communitylaw.org.nz/community-law-manual/chapter-28-harassment-and-bullying/going-to-the-police-when-the-criminal-law-can-help-with-harassment/threatening-violence-or-damage/

                • Dennis Frank

                  Thing is, police have discretion over whether to prosecute or not. Given how many people have broken this law online already in this protest, their prosecutor has probably decided he doesn't want to spend the next few years of his life taking them all to court…

                  • lprent

                    We don't have prosecutors per say.

                    What we have are the police officers at district and even high court pressing charges.

                    The involvement of the crown law office as prosecution is done ultimately at the bequest and request of the prime law officers.

                    The actual criminal prosecution in court as barristers is almost invariably done by private law firms in court paid for by the crown law office.

                    With this diffuse system you'd probably need to specify which part would baulk at the workload. It has a lot of capability to flex according to what needs to be done.

                    From what I have seen, the usual criteria as to taking the whole thing forward to trial is usually based on almost entirely on the probability of getting a conviction based on the available evidence. This could be due to direct evidence, but also on the probability of the defence being able to raise reasonable doubt on the crown's case.

                    I haven't noticed workload being involved as a decision to go forward to charge and trial outside of the police investigation itself. That usually is based on the how bad the crime was, and the difficulty of gaining enough evidence to make a conviction a slam dunk.

                  • Gabby

                    He has something better to do?

                • lprent

                  There are also several similar sections in Summary Offences which are effectively about being a public nuisance.

          • Patricia Bremner 4.1.1.1.2

            Threatening to kill in any manner is against the law. 7 years possible imprisonment.

        • Matiri 4.1.1.2

          There's an idea – set up free KFC outside the new concrete barriers and then don't let them back in!

      • felix 4.1.2

        Don't negotiate with nazis. Don't negotiate with people making threats of violence.

        An experienced negotiating team will no doubt even be able to come up with a few more handy heuristics.

    • Anker 4.2

      Agree Ad.

      Also if these people are threatening to kill, then they should absolutely be arrested and the I would hope the full force of the law come down on them.

      Question are Alps and Arps physical present at the protests?

      Thought McFlock and Weka's comments funny about alt right and Destiny church having to share power with the other groups and learn to cooperate. Who knows where that will lead.

      I think the Curia poll is probably reasonable accurate. I thought it was likely a reasonable number of Green voters anti vax.

      • swordfish 4.2.1

        Graphic from the Curia Poll:

      • Westykev 4.2.2

        "I think the Curia poll is probably reasonable accurate. I thought it was likely a reasonable number of Green voters anti vax."

        And neo-nazis by association as some that have posted on this site (sarc)

  5. observer 5

    The image in the OP is a more recent photo of the board I mentioned yesterday, with protesters' messages, as featured in this Stuff column:

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/127815331/do-the-protesters-in-wellington-even-know-what-freedom-means

    Note: this is not "MSM" or "Beehive framing" or some other excuse. This is the protesters choosing what they write, and others then choosing to leave it there, because it is acceptable. Their message is entirely up to them.

    They stand with Q-Anon.

    • weka 5.1

      some of them, obviously.

      How would people who disagree stop those that stand with Qanon from being at the protest?

      • observer 5.1.1

        Physically stop? I wouldn't want to do it so I don't blame people for not wanting a confrontation.

        But they can choose their messaging, and so far (AFAIK) in their various statements there has been no attempt to disown them, or even a mild criticism. Happy to be corrected on that.

        • weka 5.1.1.1

          who is putting out the statements and who do they represent? There are definitely Qanon aligned people there. And some of them won't have the analysis of Qanon that you and I do, and some of that will be naivety.

        • Shanreagh 5.1.1.2

          There is always the option to leave, ie expressing an opinion by walking out and going home.

          NZers do this much more than our overseas counterparts …..they just leave, don't complain and don't come back.

          Very obvious to people who actually want to find out what people think about a business or service so they can improve it and formal complaints are a way of doing that.

  6. 100% agreement.

    You've sussed it well, Micky.

  7. Enough is Enough 7

    The alterntive to negotiations is a violent Bastion Point type removal of the protestors.

    Is that what you want?

  8. Negotiation would be a farce. The protesters won't accept anything less than all demands being met, and the government aren't going to change tack until they're ready, and that's apparently not anytime soon. Ideological stalemate.

    Playing the percentages game, the guaranteed optic of the PM being shouted down is worse than a minority of occupiers of a lawn.

    Personally, I think the whole thing has been blown out of all proportion – It's just another media beat up opportunity. I'm ok with the people protesting and ok with the government ignoring them. The presence in the parliament precinct doesn't affect the ability of governance to happen, so no big shit.

    No need for aggressive policing here. Pass a bylaw preventing access to the site, so no new arrivals permitted. Any occupiers leaving the site are stopped from reentering. Then, just like observing mandates and having injections, the free can elect at any time to access food, water and toilets by leaving.

    • Treetop 8.1

      Who would pass the bylaw, council or government?

      • The Al1en 8.1.1

        I don't know. I'd guess local government though the speaker may have those powers on parliament land.

        Have a google and let us know what you find out.

      • Craig H 8.1.2

        Parliament for access to the land itself e.g. fencing, walls, gates etc. and Wellington City Council for bylaws pertaining to the roads and footpaths in the general area, although practically speaking Parliament could legislate anything it likes – it is Parliament after all.

    • Anker 8.2

      I agree with you The Al1en. I think it is being blown out of proportion. The protest will finish.

      Meanwhile the politicians and civil servants might want to reflect on having people who misbehave and some verbally abusive people on their front lawn. Maybe it will give them a little more sympathy for the Housing NZ tennants who have had to put up with anti social tennants living next door to them for years, whom the Govt won't evict. They could also reflect on the people who work at the coal face and have to put up with abusive shit as part of their jobs e.g. nurses, OT social workers, mental health staff, prison guards and police. These people are unable to choose not to respond and walk away. And they are paid considerably less than people who work in the parliamentary precinct.

      On a completely different note, I do feel very sorry for the police who have caught Covid and feel sure it must be amongst the protesters on the lawns.

  9. Andrew Miller 9

    Quick comment on the Curia poll.

    Whilst we should be sceptical of any poll taken under these circumstances, the only bit that’s meaningful is the fact that 3/4s of them are entirely unvaccinated.

    As to the word map where ‘mandate’ is the most prominent word, I’d remind people of the Hawthorne effect.

    There will be scores of people who are at least smart enough to know if your real view is it’s all a giant conspiracy and Arden should be strung from a lamppost you say something far more moderate to an outsider asking questions (That along with data not being the plural of anecdote is something you’d have hoped Dr Bryce Edwards shouldn’t have needed reminding of).

    • weka 9.1

      I thought the geographical spread is significant, as is who they voted for in 2020.

      I'd like to see some informed analysis of the sample size and what the sample error rates means in this context.

      • Andrew Miller 9.1.1

        They’re of mild academic interest and if accurate not terribly surprising.
        Given 77% percent are unvaccinated, the questions that would have been really revealing if ‘Why have chosen not to be vaccinated?’.
        It’s easy to talk of ‘freedom’ and ‘choice’ and focus on the mandates as its a narrative that makes you look reasonable.
        Given such a large percentage are unvaccinated, I suspect listening to there’s reasons would show that up for the meaningless facade it was and that in reality when we’re not dealing with unpleasantly extreme views we’re dealing with fringe unscientific ones.

        • weka 9.1.1.1

          I know why many people aren't vaccinated, so that's less interesting to me than looking at the cultural dynamics as a whole and that includes voting and geography.

          Underneath the why are values, and very few people are talking about that yet.

          • Andrew Miller 9.1.1.1.1

            I know why as well, but it would go some way to under the bs that they’re just concerned about the mandates and the ‘freedom’ issues.

            • weka 9.1.1.1.1.1

              I know why as well,

              Really? What do you think the range of reasons are? Because I see reasons that are rarely discussed in political circles.

              • Andrew Miller

                It’s obviously complex and difficult to discuss in a format like this, but generally a lot of the reasons coalesce around a breakdown in institutional trust and broader issues of marginalisation. The drivers can be economic, cultural (in the broadest sense), demographic, geographical.
                There’s people living in communities or in circumstances where the social fabric that held people together has either frayed or completely fallen apart and one of the symptoms of it is a mixture of no longer trusting those who’s authority was once a given (Drs, Politians, media) and embracing the ide that there are ‘forces’ responsible for your predicament that make people susceptible to conspiratorial thinking.
                However, there are and have always been people who’ve embraced really shitty ideas and pushed unpleasant political agendas regardless of their status in society.
                I don’t think we know, beyond observing statements, behaviour, social media as to who’s who, but we’re not going to find out or be able to separate them whilst they’re camped in front of Parliament.
                I also think, it’s important to try and deal with peoples marginalisation whilst holding firm against the bad ideas they’ve embraced. Anything else is simply patronising.

          • Robert Guyton 9.1.1.1.2

            "Underneath the why are values, and very few people are talking about that yet."

            or

            Underneath the why are vulnerabilities, and very few people are talking about that yet.

            • Andrew Miller 9.1.1.1.2.1

              We have no way of knowing how many that applies to.
              I don’t doubt it does for some, but even if true camping Parliament grounds amongst people talking about execution lists isn’t the time or place to properly address them.

            • weka 9.1.1.1.2.2

              Yes! Very good point. And those vulnerabilities are not necessarily what people are thinking in the current online bunfight.

              • Andrew Miller

                I would also question the extent to which you could deal with one manifestation of those vulnerabilities (ie vaccine scepticism) in isolation from everything else, especially if they’ve headed down a conspiratorial rabbit hole.
                It may only be possible by replacing the unhealthy forms of community they’ve developed with healthy and productive ones and that’s probably hard and takes time.

                • weka

                  that's not the kind of vulnerability I was talking about, and I suspect not what Robert meant either.

                  If you start from a position that they are inherently, fundamentally, and wholly wrong, it's hard to understand their motivations.

                  • Andrew Miller

                    You need to be much clear as to what you think they may not be ‘wholly wrong’ about.
                    Unless they have a specific medical reason not to, I’m comfortable saying they ‘wholly wrong’ choosing not to be vaccinated (or in relevant circumstances making the same choice for their kids).
                    I’m perfectly happy to understand why they’ve made a wrong choice and to address any underlying causes for that poor decision but either indulging or pretending their choice isn’t ‘wholly wrong’ gets us nowhere.

                    • Shanreagh

                      I’m perfectly happy to understand why they’ve made a wrong choice and to address any underlying causes for that poor decision but either indulging or pretending their choice isn’t ‘wholly wrong’ gets us nowhere.

                      This is so true. To me there is science and there is 'other'.

                      I can understand things like needle phobia, previous bad reaction, possible future bad reaction, not keen on the mRNA concept, all these are legit from a health/science point of view.

                      Being legit from a health/science point of view means we are able to bring health or science solutions to bear.

                      But what about the others, the believers in shedding, that Covid does not exist, that you will die in 2,5 or next year because the vaccine has been programmed to do this….what of them?

                      Rae in the very first post said this

                      You can't reason with people who have been brainwashed as surely as any cult member. You only have to look at that Sue Grey and what she puts out there to understand what we are dealing with here. There are people (some I actually know) who will vote for this, in the hope that conspiracy theories can govern.

                      To get out of the crazy anti vaxx mindset, which is like chemtrailers, 9/11 inside job, man never landed on the moon, Elvis is at the local 7/11 all rolled into one and stuffed full of steroids, will need deprogramming techniques. In other words they are goners where critical thinking goes.

                      So it is deprogramming with all its possible failures & some successes…..see those who have fled from other cults, Moonies, Scientologists, Gloriavale.

                      Joining the anti vaxx cult may be the only thing providing meaning and fun, why would they want to do the hard yards and then rejoin a world where they found they did not fit in first time round.

                      Though, and this is a weird one, travelling to Otaki again today and observing the latest ones coming to Wellington to join the clan. Large campervans flying the NZ flag, huge giveaway, with oldies in it ie 60s looking and older…..where did they come from? They would have been vaccinated all the way through why protest now? Are they anti PMers?

                    • alwyn

                      "So it is deprogramming with all its possible failures & some successes"

                      If you were to try deprogramming them could you get caught up by the law they passed the other day. The Conversion Practices Prohibition Legislation Bill?

                      Or was that very tightly defined to only ban changing sexual identity beliefs?

        • Anker 9.1.1.2

          Andrew Miller of course these people have fringe unscientific views. They have always been around. I think most of these views are crackers, but there you go. Some people are anti science. It is of concern that our science curriculum seems to be including things that are not science in with science (refer to Molly's post a couple of weeks ago). Sorry don't have time to post.

    • Belladonna 9.2

      Sorry, why should we be sceptical of a poll taken under these circumstances?

      Are people more likely to lie about their place of origin, political party they last voted for, or vaccination status – if they're protesting, than if they were at home?

      So far, it's the only actual hard data on the protesters (rather than 'reckons' or media cherry-picking) that we have.
      If others believe that the data is tainted in some way – then they remain free to fund and conduct a poll themselves.

      The protest has been widely publicised (during the organisation phases, as well as post arrival) as an 'anti-mandate' protest. It's not surprising that those words would appear top of the list for many participants (just as anti-TPP was the major placard element for the anti-TPP protests).

      • Andrew Miller 9.2.1

        If you’re unable to grasp why a poll in such circumstances may not be scientifically accurate or may well be harder to make scientifically accurate then I can’t really help you.

        As to the word ‘mandate’ featuring, well of course it’s unsurprisingly but if you think that people answering in a particular way that may not reflect their true views or that they have a vested interest in answering in a particular way isn’t relevant, then again I can’t really help you.

        It’s not like there hasn’t been countless polls that have proven to be inaccurate because people answered in a way they thought beneficial or what they thought the questioner want to it hear

        It’s hardly a controversial observation.

      • observer 9.2.2

        The link above outlines the methodology used.

        As I've said, it is useful qualitative data, and shouldn't be dismissed. 300 face-to-face contacts tell us more than a few vox pops on TV or a Facebook echo chamber.

        But it is not a "poll" in the generally understood sense of opinion polling. It couldn't be, for obvious reasons.

        • weka 9.2.2.1

          The Curia poll linke? The description of methodologies only makes sense to people who understand research and surveys.

          • observer 9.2.2.1.1

            Heh.

            But the description is pretty clear, not geeky: they basically went up to protesters and asked them in person. As opposed to phone/online polling in a calculated sample of the population, which is the usual practice.

            • weka 9.2.2.1.1.1

              Yes, but the sample size and error margin need explaining by someone who understands polling.

              • Andrew Miller

                It’s got to be far harder than with a traditional phone poll.
                You don’t avoid calling a number because you get the impression the person on the other end may just abuse and threaten you.
                Issues around the safety of the staff and who they chose to ask must have been present, even if subconsciously.

              • Andrew Miller

                Phone polling is based on globally tested and replicable methodology and hence you can create a ‘margin for error’ as it the methodology is testable and in theory robust.

                There are countless reason that make achieving this in the case of a protest gathering WAY harder and completely different to how you poll a population in ways we’re used to trusting to some degree
                I’m not trying to cast aspersions on Curia who I’m happy to assume they did the best they could, but it’s obvious there’s no way they could have designed a methodology in such a short space of time and in such circumstances that doesn’t make the issues ‘just like any poll’.
                I’d repeat for the benefit of a certain poster that I’m not dismissing it, merely saying we need be sceptical, particularly of the things that go beyond simple factual questions.

                If the issue is people want to grab hold of it as evidence that labels of ‘the protest’ as ‘Nazi’ are misguided, I already think such broad brush labelling is counterproductive and meaningless.
                However, we’ve very good reason to not take its finding as evidence that it’s just a ‘anti mandate’ protest.

        • Andrew Miller 9.2.2.2

          Don’t get me wrong, I’m not dismissing it just pointing some fairly obvious issues that should mean it’s not all just taken at face value.

          • Belladonna 9.2.2.2.1

            Actually, you haven't pointed out a single issue – obvious or otherwise.

            If you’re unable to grasp why a poll in such circumstances may not be scientifically accurate or may well be harder to make scientifically accurate then I can’t really help you.

            You've simply dismissed it, and been rude.

            • Andrew Miller 9.2.2.2.1.1

              Given my original post was to point out some issues (which I did) , not dismiss it I’m not quite sure why you’re so invested in the idea there can’t be any issues and that we should just take it at face value.
              If you think in such a unusual and fluid environment that issues of selection, potential intimidation (both questioners and responders), framing of questions and we’ll known issues around observation effects shouldn’t make us sceptical of aspects of it, then I suspect there’s nothing I can say to convince you.

              • Belladonna

                Labouring a dead horse, here, sadly.

                No, you did not point out any issues in your original post. Your only comment was "Whilst we should be sceptical of any poll taken under these circumstances" before you launched into discussing the element which you did agree with.

                Now, I happen to agree that there may well be some issues with selection bias in this situation. However, a polling company would normally deal with this by segmenting the crowd (assigning poll-takers in different areas – in case there is stratification going on – people of different political/social persuasions self-grouping) – and doing a standard 'ask every 10th person walking past' selection criteria to avoid selection bias as much as possible.

                The unusually high completion rate (phone polls routinely have at least 50% of people unwilling to complete) – would offset a lot of any unconscious selection bias. And, if you think there was conscious selection bias, you should produce some evidence.

                Routine participation surveys (e.g. train usage) or customer service satisfaction surveys – use exactly this methodology. As they're interested in the opinions/demographics of the people using the service, rather than those of the general population – they don't/can't use a phone contact technique. I don't see why these, very standard, survey techniques wouldn't be applicable and used here.

                There appears to be no evidence that Curia was deliberately framing questions to get a set result – and it's, difficult to see how framing could affect answers to 'where do you live' and 'did you vote at the last election, and if so for which party'.

                I don't see any reason for discounting the 'hard' statistical measure outcomes of this survey.

                Opinion (the 'why' questions) are always more tricky. However, it seems fair to take from this that the majority of people are concerned over the vaccine mandate – as at least one of the issues at stake.

                I do think that it's fair to take from this, that the framing of the protest as an alt-right, Nazi, extremist one, is not reflective of a substantial part of the protesting population base. Not to say those elements aren't there (because they are), but that they don't reflect the majority of protestors.

                As my, original comment on this survey said – it reflects that the protest isn't either left or right, it's 'other'.

                • weka

                  He apparently said three things (I had trouble following too)

                  1. Referencing the Hawthorne effect (no idea what that is)
                  2. That people will lie to appear more moderate
                  3. Something about the difference between data and anecdata, point not made particularly clearly
                  • Nic the NZer

                    The Hawthorne effect is another description of your point 2. People will modify their behavior (in this case answers) when they are aware its being observed (by the poll).

                    • weka

                      presumably a common issue that there are ways of mitigating or allowing for in analysis?

                    • Nic the NZer

                      No, its not really possible to mitigate for polling purposes. Ultimately a poll can probably only report what people say. Any attempt to mitigate it would be based on assuming what the participants say when not observed which would make the polling methodology pretty dubious.

                    • Belladonna

                      But this is true for all polls (you can lie, just as much over the phone, as you can in person)

                      And, actually, true believers (of all persuasions) are much less likely to lie about their beliefs. They truly believe that if you are just prepared to listen, then you, too, will understand the ‘truth’.

                      Slanting poll results is a fairly sophisticated response – and I don’t really see any evidence of that level of political sophistication from the protesters.

                    • Nic the NZer

                      It is true of all polls, yes.

                      But we will have to disagree as to how likely an essentially external poll is likely to be told straightforwardly why people are there.

  10. Dennis Frank 10

    Chances are you could be right that negotiating is a waste of time, but I've just found compelling evidence that the police commissioner totally disagrees with you:

    Police Commissioner Andrew Coster says negotiation and de-escalation is the only safe, and therefore most desirable, way to resolve the Wellington protest… As the protest at Parliament enters its 11th day, Police continues to make progress in engaging with key protest groups.

    https://www.police.govt.nz/news/release/de-escalation-remains-key-protest-resolution

    However that was three days ago. He's clearly a reasonable man, and if he read your essay this morning he probably saw good reason to change his mind. Then again, could be his media liaison folk ignore political bloggers…

    • weka 10.1

      there's a difference between police negotiation (which is about how the protest plays out on the ground) and government negotiation (which is about the demands of the protestors on government)

      • Dennis Frank 10.1.1

        Indeed. Strikes me as significant that he doesn't specify the distinction in his official statement. Consequently, I read it as inclusive of both interpretations…

        • Shanreagh 10.1.1.1

          Commr of Police is acting according to his operational duty to do with unrest, illegal occupation etc. He has separate powers.

          Govt has already given its conditions as to when it may be prepared to meet or negotiate on anything…..quite a few days ago. Leave, take your tents and structures and leave the grounds.

          Commr of Police has no operational role to consider 'the demands' to accede to any of the demands from the protestors. It is very important not to get the roles mixed up as the protestors & media are doing.

          Commr of Police is well aware of the roles. Nothing could be construed as him talking for ‘the Govt’.

          • Dennis Frank 10.1.1.1.1

            You reckon he isn't doing any liaison with the police minister? Seems to me it's an error of judgment to assume she's an irrelevant bystander. I agree the ongoing dead silence from her is noteworthy but dunno if her intention is really to demonstrate her irrelevance to the public and media.

            However, knowing Labour, I'm happy to acknowledge that the placeholder strategy may have been the reason for her selection by the PM…

      • Andrew Miller 10.1.2

        There’s also arse covering for earlier mistakes.
        some of the statements the Police have come out with a vacuous in the extreme and largely driven by a desire to stop anyone concluding it wasn’t inevitable that we ended where we are and decisions the Police took are a big part of it.

  11. Treetop 12

    It is not easy to predict why each protestor is there.

    Would access to a questionnaire help establish what an individual protester wants?

  12. observer 13

    Stuff reporter Henry Cooke has noticed something here – a change in the demands.

    The protest statement says that in their view the only thing that would end the protest was a “lifting of all mandates” and an “open dialogue about the Covid-19 Public Health Response Act”.

    This is a slight shift from an earlier list of demands from the same groups, which asked for a complete repeal of that law – which would mean no internal measures to fight Covid-19 at all.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300522626/convoy-protest-protest-leaders-suggested-they-couldnt-clear-streets-if-they-wanted-to

    We can't read too much into that, given the very loose nature of the group, but if at least some of them are shifting towards "open dialogue" instead of a gun to the head with impossible demands, perhaps there's hope.

    • Andrew Miller 13.1

      Government agrees to announce stuff they were intending to do anyway, mob get to spin it that Government are only doing because of the protest, they get to bugger off without looking like they just wasted everyone’s time.

      There’s certainly worse ways for it to end.

  13. Peter 14

    "Let's execute all the politicians."

    A wonderful basis on which to have negotiations. There must be many in the mob who are disappointed they haven't been able to 'storm the Capitol' a la January 6th.

    The sucked in lunatics would have been at the front with the anarchists, the leaders behind the scene, subtly orchestrating, would have been chuckling way out the back and the lady with the cat would've been in boots'n'all.

    Two things I'm looking forward to: 1) Hearing from some poor protestor wanting the concrete barricades installed this morning to be moved because they want to get their car out as they are needed at home because of serious Covid situation there.

    2) That our family member and her colleagues who work in the area are going to be allowed free parking close to their office for the next while.

  14. Hearing from some poor protestor wanting the concrete barricades installed this morning to be moved because they want to get their car out as they are needed at home because of serious Covid situation there.

    I don't think you will hear this. Thus far the campers have not moved their cars to allow a permanent access way for ambulances to access the site despite pleas from the Police.

    I think there will be a number of the protestors who don't believe that Covid exists so a reason for going might be framed as tonsillitis.

    If the protestor wants to move the car then I am sure that will be fine. They just won't be allowed back in and that is fine also.

  15. Gypsy 16

    The protestors are a disparate group of people, from outright nutters to ordinary people with (what they perceive to be) genuine grievances. There are people who have engaged in despicable acts, alongside those who have called that behaviour out and continue to behave peacefully.

    I have little time for most of the protestors, or for their claims. However the government have mishandled this from the outset.

    Trevor Mallard claimed that the protest is “clearly being orchestrated by neo-Nazis”, a stupid, ignorant and inflammatory statement. He has behaved in a childish, petulant manner, confirming doubts about his suitability for the role he holds.

    Michael Wood claimed there was a 'river of filth' running underneath the protest.

    Even the PM, normally so adept at managing these situations, has demonstrated a lack of critical thinking in how to resolve this. She's demonised the protest group from the outset, and dropped the 'imported protest' line thinking that would brush them off.

    As Micky points out, negotiating with this mob would be meaningless. There is no single person or group with a mandate, and their demands are simply ludicrous. But this required a reasoned and elegant response. Instead, our government's approach has been clumsy, ham fisted and arrogant.

    • Peter 16.1

      Mallard claimed the protest is being orchestrated by neo-Nazis. With the information he had. Do you think the protest is being orchestrated by anyone or any groups in particular according to the information you have?

      • Gypsy 16.1.1

        What information did Mallard have that supported his claim?

        • Peter 16.1.1.1

          What information did you have when you decided what to have for breakfast?

          Your question is bloody ridiculous. Unless of course every single bit of information every single politicians has about every single issue is published so we can judge whether they made the 'right' decision. i.e. the decision we agree with.

          I would back Mallard having more information about who is on site than most people.

          • Robert Guyton 16.1.1.1.1

            It's patently obvious, Peter (do not despair! 🙂

          • Gypsy 16.1.1.1.2

            Did your read your comment before you posted?

            "Mallard claimed the protest is being orchestrated by neo-Nazis. With the information he had. "

            YOU claimed he had information. Now what was it?

            • Robert Guyton 16.1.1.1.2.1

              It stands to reason, Gypsy.

              Mallard will have a great deal of information, given he is charged with decision-making reading the management of Parliamentary business/grounds/processes.

              If there was a protest driven in part by neo-Natziis, headed for his patch, he'd have been reliable informed.

              Or perhaps you think no one would mention it to him.

              He said he knew.

              Are you believing he lied?

              • felix

                There's a subtle difference between lying and bullshitting. If Mallard just said the protest is orchestrated by nazis, he was bullshitting.

                If he said he definitely knows for sure that the protest is orchestrated by nazis, he was lying.

                • Robert Guyton

                  Mallard was quoted as saying that the protest was,

                  “clearly being orchestrated by neo-Nazis”.

                  He may have known for sure that it was, he may have considered that it was, he may have been guessing that it was, he may have been told that it was, but hadn't had time to check…how do know which of these options, or the two you suggested, is correct, Felix?

                  • felix

                    We don't. But we have zero evidence that it’s being orchestrated by nazis, so because I'm biased toward quite liking Mallard, I take the most charitable available view that he was bullshitting rather than lying.

                    • weka

                      depends on what he means by nazi too. Does he mean people who are known neonazis and espouse a particular philosophy and belief system? Or does he mean the white supremacist far right. If he means the latter, then he wasn't bullshitting.

                • Gypsy

                  Hey he could have been mistaken, or being fed crap information. Either way, an apology would be appropriate?

              • Gypsy

                Well let's just say he made a claim for which he has produced no evidence and which is, with hindsight, incorrect. Lying? Making irresponsible, ignorant and inflammatory claims? Based on Mallard's history, probably the latter.

    • Shanreagh 16.2

      As Micky points out, negotiating with this mob would be meaningless. There is no single person or group with a mandate, and their demands are simply ludicrous. But this required a reasoned and elegant response. Instead, our government's approach has been clumsy, ham fisted and arrogant.

      The Police have the operational duty to deal with the protestors. I think we fall into the protestors traps by suggesting that 'the Govt ' comes in above them to do something. I think our best strategy is to let the org with operational responsibility to deal with the protestors do their job. .

      The protestors were advised ages ago what the conditions were for a meeting. Govt has already said the mandates would end when the health need had diminished and PM has repeated this today

      • Gypsy 16.2.1

        "The Police have the operational duty to deal with the protestors. I think we fall into the protestors traps by suggesting that 'the Govt ' comes in above them to do something."

        I agree. Which is why the comments of various government representatives were unhelpful.

    • Robert Guyton 16.3

      The issue with the terms used by Mallard and Wood isn't their veracity, it's that they were easily hijacked and used as weapons against them. This is all but inevitable in any charged situation. Do you prefer, Gypsy, that our parliamentary representatives "play it safe" always, choose only anodyne words and phrases and endeavour always to leave the horses un-startled?

      Pretty dull stuff, that!

      • Gypsy 16.3.1

        "The issue with the terms used by Mallard and Wood isn't their veracity, it's that they were easily hijacked and used as weapons against them."

        Well that's one issue. The other is that they demonise all of the protestors, which enables, empowers and enboldens even the moderates.

        "This is all but inevitable in any charged situation."

        No it isn't.

        "Do you prefer, Gypsy, that our parliamentary representatives "play it safe" always, choose only anodyne words and phrases and endeavour always to leave the horses un-startled?"

        Think about this. If the protest is truly being orchestrated by 'neo-nazi's', if there is genuinely a 'river of filth' running through the protest, if this group actually pose the threat to national security some are claiming, then throwing insults is a cowardly way to behave, and the protest should have been contained and ultimately dispersed within the first 24 hours.

        • tsmithfield 16.3.1.1

          Good point. If the threat was really so severe, the authorities have been negligent in letting even get to this point.

          • Robert Guyton 16.3.1.1.1

            Gypsy's point is not a good one, tsmithfield. Have you ever played "whack-a-mole"?

            "Authorities" will be watching closely as key players in this drama grow bolder, and express themselves more openly. They'll be watching too, the fist-pumpers.

        • Robert Guyton 16.3.1.2

          "… the protest should have been contained and ultimately dispersed within the first 24 hours."

          That's a very simplistic view, Gypsy.

          The insurrection is a slow-moving current. Most bobbing along with the (sometimes) gentle flow, don't even know what causing the stream of action and thought. Gentle souls, playing guitar and sharing kai, are being subjected to invidious messaging – if you doubt this, listen-in to some of the videos of speakers from the fundamentalist Christian, Counterspin etc. front-people and wonder, "are non-radicalised people sunning themselves and buying candy-floss for their kids", immune from these messages – after all, there's always a lot of cheering and fist-pumping support for what seem from a distance, crazy sh*t.

          The threat is real, severe (imo) but muted, by design.

          • Gypsy 16.3.1.2.1

            "That's a very simplistic view, Gypsy."

            I agree with a lot of your comment, but not this. An early containment would have been far easier tactically than what the government and police face now. The protest organisers have been underestimated, undermined and belittled. That is a sure fire way to turn what was a molehill into a mountain.

            • Robert Guyton 16.3.1.2.1.1

              Had the early protesters been contained, what makes you sure waves of others, angered by the police response, wouldn't have continued their sorry way to the Parliament lawn?

              • Gypsy

                It's in the word 'contained'.

                • Robert Guyton

                  You can't see that successive waves of protesters could easily have created serious problems for the police at Parliament, where they had the initial wave "contained"?

                  • Gypsy

                    If the initial wave were 'contained', then any others joining would be 'contained' elsewhere and subsequently dispersed.

                    • Robert Guyton

                      Where is this "elsewhere" that incoming protesters would be "contained", Gypsy?

                      Picton?

                      Upper Hut?

                      Somes Island?

                  • Gypsy

                    "Where is this "elsewhere" that incoming protesters would be "contained", Gypsy?"
                    Away from the other protestors. Dealing with small groups is far easier than a large group.

                  • Gypsy

                    Away form the other protestors. Let them congregate elsewhere if they want, but allowing a large group to congregate, including at least a small number of assorted nutters, was foolish.

        • Hetzer 16.3.1.3

          " the issue with the terms isnt their veracity" No? Whether either Mallard and Wood are liars or telling the truth doesnt matter? Good oh lol

          • Gypsy 16.3.1.3.1

            Oh it matters. The comment you quoted was made by Robert, not me.

            • Hetzer 16.3.1.3.1.1

              Yes Gypsy, im aware of the source, i wasnt meaning to attribute that drivel to you. Apologies

              • Robert Guyton

                You'll notice that Gypsy didn't disagree with my comment.

                Beyond that, he, and you, haven't shown that there isn't a significant influence from despicable elements in this occupation/protest. I'm filled with anticipation that you'll show that everyone here has kind intent.

  16. Adrian 17

    If the poll was taken on the weekend when the place was full of schoolkids and disaster tourists it has no relevancy at all. The truth is that the hardcore Mon-Fidayers do'n't vote anyway.

  17. SPC 18

    The issue of mandates – for either employment or to access places – will fade with time.

    Because, at some point those who are unvaccinated are going to be infected – then they will be claiming their immunity is equivalent or greater to those vaccinated, but yet to be infected.

    The question is whether the debate will have moved to that point before, or after, the protest itself has come to an end.

  18. coge 19

    The political classes of NZ believed it was okay to introduce mandated segregation practices throughout NZ. They expected that large group of people to shut up and sit quietly in the corner. Frankly I'm not surprised at all with the current outcome. Given the mandates effected not just those who declined the vax, but also their friends, families, neighbors, colleagues and customers. And many others who have rejected this new type of "freedom" offered by the Govt. The numbers in support of dropping the mandates has risen abruptly since early December, and is continuing to rise. "If "the mandates were lifted today, the protestors would go home overnight.

    • weka 19.1

      While I agree that this protest isn't in and of itself a surprise, I'm not convinced that removing the mandates would end the protest. Some would leave for sure, but not all. Here's one of the lists of demands I have seen.

    • Peter 19.2

      It's quite nice to be alive and to be able to pontificate about freedom eh? And chat about it with spouses and sons and daughters and grandchildren and neighbours and workmates and clubmates and (virtually certainly) not have them thrown into a pool of woe and misery about someone they lost to covid.

      I'm blaming Ardern. By the norms we should have had 10-16,000 dead.

    • Andrew Miller 19.3
      1. It’s lovely that you appear to not give a toss about those who would almost certainly have died or become seriously ill they’d been expected to share work places and other public spaces with the unvaccinated.

      2. Given who’s there, their agendas and indeed the list of demand that have been made you have no way to know it would be over.

      3. Given the rising level of Omicron cases, I suspect most NZers think the government’s likely (flexible and evidence based) time table is prudent.

      • aj 19.3.1

        It’s lovely that you appear to not give a toss about those who would almost certainly have died or become seriously ill….

        Andrew Miller, /sarc in the note you refer to. According to my read, anyway.

  19. Adrian 20

    Coge,The mandates for the health, education and food supplier etc sectors were there to protect your sorry, stupid, un-vaxxed arse, and for the vulnerable who couldnt get it or if they did like the elderly and compromised, would fill the hospitals to overflowing like the rest of the world run by dumb shits just like you. Fuck you and your ilk piss me off.

    • weka 20.1

      dial back the abuse please. Your points don't need that.

    • coge 20.2

      I am vaccinated. In my experience segregation is implemented in part, by the assumptions and language of segregation.

      • roblogic 20.2.1

        Antivaxxers can choose to “segregate” themselves by being antisocial fuckwits, but don’t expect people to put up with their shitty selfish behaviour that endangers others

  20. DS 21

    Additional reason:

    Legitimising the protestors just encourages them to do it again at a later date. Welcome to Banana Republic territory.

  21. observer 22

    The political playbook seems pretty clear now. When opponents give you gifts, you take them.

    The protesters can't get through a day without providing news headlines (the cenotaph, the internal rows, the shit-throwing, etc). Of course it's fair to say "not all protesters, not even most", but that's been the case since the first protester in history wrote a sign on a cave wall. If 1000 people march against a war and only 10 of them smash windows, the peaceful 990 don't lead the news. It was ever thus.

    Ardern at her press conference just now basically said "my dad was a cop and I don't negotiate with people who throw shit at them". Public opinion will be on her side and she knows it.

    • Robert Guyton 22.1

      Poo-flinging?

      You'll be accused of smearing the protesters, observer…

      …hang on….it was the police who were smeared, right?

  22. Chris T 23

    so just for clarity.

    You are comparing the protesters in Wellington to Nazis?

    • roblogic 23.1

      hashtag NotAllNazis

      but they are willing to stand alongside such people and welcome them into the camp..

      • Chris T 23.1.1

        With all due respect. What a crock of shit.

        Read some history and learn something about the Nazis

        • felix 23.1.1.1

          It's amazing how often I'm hearing this bullshit about standing alongside nazis (all three of them) from people who have spent decades marching in protests shoulder to shoulder with Maoists and Stalinists.

          • Chris T 23.1.1.1.1

            Always happens though on all sides. Their fringes are embarrassing. Most sane people tend not to colour the entire lot of people with it.

          • Robert Guyton 23.1.1.1.2

            How, Felix, do you know there were 3?

            Same information source as Mallard.

            • Chris T 23.1.1.1.2.1

              Don't actually think there were any nazi people apart from that Aarps dude or what ever his name is. And he is a cock so who gives a shit?

              Edit: Funny watching Ardern struggle with it though.

              Luxon ain’t exactly helping.

              We ain’t exactly flush with people to vote for next time.

            • felix 23.1.1.1.2.2

              Count them. Let me know how many you find.

          • McFlock 23.1.1.1.3

            A Che t-shirt doesn't make someone a Maoist or Stalinist.

        • Robert Guyton 23.1.1.2

          Crock?

          hashtag NotAllPoo-Slingers

    • weka 23.2

      You are comparing the protesters in Wellington to Nazis?

      No, Micky said in his post that there are Nazis at the protest. See the difference?

  23. Stuart Munro 24

    The Nazis tend to be a distractor in terms of principled discussions of issues like engaging with the clownvoy.

    I don't believe that negotiation is likely to be fruitful, for two reasons. The clownvoy are not sincere, and so will not negotiate in good faith. There are abundant historical examples of groups with this characteristic, from Jesuits, to Soviets and the omnipresent Nazis – people naive enough to negotiate with them gain nothing by doing so. Nor are the clownvoy unitary in their aims – ask a dozen different wolves-in-sheeple's-clothing what they want and you'll get two dozen different answers.

    The police response is a curate's egg. There was ample warning of the crowd assembling, and the tactics used to reduce British football violence – chiefly interdiction – should have been used to prevent this illegal circus. Their continued presence is not politically desirable – to the extent that we as a nation pretend to the rule of law, we should have moved them on by now. Within the context of that failure however, the routine thuggery of police interventions in evidence at other protests I've attended has not been on display. Can the police sustain the soft approach and still remove the undesirables? It remains to be seen. A bit of Aikido might be called for.

    Full points for Mallard on the sprinklers – but it should have been fire hoses.

    • Shanreagh 24.1

      Good post Stuart Munro.

      I especially like this:

      I don't believe that negotiation is likely to be fruitful, for two reasons. The clownvoy are not sincere, and so will not negotiate in good faith. There are abundant historical examples of groups with this characteristic, from Jesuits, to Soviets and the omnipresent Nazis – people naive enough to negotiate with them gain nothing by doing so. Nor are the clownvoy unitary in their aims – ask a dozen different wolves-in-sheeple's-clothing what they want and you'll get two dozen different answers.

      I think Coster is doing Ok atm. He gave a warning yesterday about the cars, protestors ignored him, next minute cars are being towed. Great work this morning as well.

      The faeces throwing incident is diabolical, puts Police at risk and is uncivilised behaviour. The protestors have also been tipping human waste down the stormwater drains and these discharge into the harbour. Result is that some of our swimming beaches are now unswimmable.

      So we are not to 'other' the protesters but I find these actions disgraceful. Also indicative of how they view other human beings.

      I am hoping we do not need to negotiate with them. I am hoping our ongoing health reviews will make mandates unnecessary. Failing that the Canadian solution seemed to work relatively peacefully. Helped along by special powers that made it easier to tap into the protest organisers bank accounts.

  24. The Chairman 25

    Point by point

    1. The protesters’ leadership do not have a mandate to represent the protesters.

    They selected a mediator. Therefore, think of it like a union negotiation. Discussion and resulting offers can be had with and put forward to the mediator who can then take it back to the protesters to discuss and vote upon.

    2. Their claims are extreme

    It's a negotiation. No demands have been set in stone. People often enter into negotiations with demands higher than what they will actually agree to settle too.

    3. There are actual Nazis present.

    They are not the majority, thus not the majority they would be negotiating with. Appease the majority and they will most likely leave.

    4. At the time of the country’s most dangerous health crisis in a century now is not the time for a rushed retreat from the mandate.

    Seems we will be allowing workers that are close contacts to return via RAT's. Why not apply that right to the unvaccinated?

    Additionally, the protesters may agree to wait a month or two allowing the peak to be over.

    We'll never know unless the Government gets around the table and negotiates.

    Isn't it interesting? Labour decry the disruption the protest has created, amplifying the bad behaviour of a small few while pointing to the frustration, fear, and inconvenience of Wellingtonians. Yet, won't engage with the protesters to end this, thus end the inconvenience, fear and frustration.

    And guess what? There is another very large (from both ends of the country) convoy planned for this weekend. Labour better get around that table because it seems this is only going to grow.

    • Shanreagh 25.1

      And yet you still have not returned to the page where several people put the facts out for you to see about the skew whiff medical expose by the disaffected Doctors.

      Discussion does not just go one way……ie you pronounce, others work up a discussion and you walk away without engaging, rinse and repeat. Like whack a mole.

      Well I am not really interested in your reckons and bad faith arguments on behalf of the protestors.

      We have not reached the top of the Omicron surge, until we do we need all the health precautions in place. PM has said this. Let the Govt work through the public health measures and they will be gradually lifted, as the MIQ, travel, border ones have been/are being gradually lifted.

      The people who are being supplied with RATs are essential workers who have been vaccinated and who are isolating. It is a means to keep essential supplies available to supermarkets etc.

      Protestors can still go to the supermarkets if they mask up.

      The essential workers keep them and us supplied.

      I am struggling with the concept that anti vaxxers have now fallen into a category similar to essential workers.

    • Shanreagh 25.2

      So you support the anti vax protest?

      Which actions do you think will persuade the Govt that these are people imbued with the idea of doing things for our country and an awareness of the public health measures that have been needed to keep us all safe? And therefore worth negotiating with?

      You could rank them if you like

      A) most likely to persuade the Govt to negotiate

      B somewhat likely to persuade the Govt to negotiate

      C not sure

      D somewhat likely not to persuade the govt to negotiate

      E unlikely to persuade the govt to negotiate

      Noting that I have given you a 5 step scale and not a 3 step scale to help to tease out the nuances

      1) hanging a noose/s in the trees

      2 drawing a swastika over a monument to Richard John Seddon

      3) chalking 'hang em high' on the Parliament forecourt

      4 saying politicians should die/be executed

      5 having anti semitic sayings written on at least one of the protestors vans in public display

      6) shitting and littering all over the place

      7) spitting at people

      8) throwing faeces at Police

      9) throwing unknown substances possibly acid at the police

      10 taunting police with fireworks at close range

      11 attempting to run Police down at one of the lines in Molesworth street

      12 emptying the waste, probably from the camper vans parked at the protest into the stormwater drains to contaminate Wellington's beaches

      13 moving legally placed concrete blocks

      14 harassing the truck operator & the firm who delivered and placed the concrete barriers

      15 supporting a 15 march style killing of the PM and displaying this on posters at the ground

      16 pulling off the masks of students on thier way to school

      17 closing down VUW until April , depriving students of education

      18 obstructing media who work in the parliamentary precinct area from getting to their workplace (Henry Cooke this morning)

      19 trampling on the mana of Ngati Toa Rangitira by using their taonga Kamate Kamate as part of the protest

      20 breaking and entering Pipitea Marae grounds

      21 Using the Cenotaph as a chalking place, showering place, parking on the surrounds and only seeing the error of their ways when a veterans group gave them an ultimatum to move/clean etc.

      I'll leave it there.

      Please I don't want any weasel words such as youth, oppressed, separatism, segregation, early days of the protest they are much better now…….

    • Robert Guyton 25.3

      "They selected a mediator."

      Did they?

      Was that all of them, or a select group?

      How do you know?

      • Shanreagh 25.3.1

        He won't reply…

        He's away testing the new bottle of 'spray and walk away' he was able to buy from one of the poor young workers at NW Thorndon who have been affected by intimidation and reduced hours through the actions of:

        the 'worker' led protestors

        sorry I'll read that again

        been affected by the actions of the 'worker' owners of the OTT campervans at the protest,

        no that's still not right

        the 'worker' owners of the faeces thrown at the Police

        Anyway ……..

        RG we could have a small bet about when/whether anyone will get a response. This could be the prize.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chocolate_fish#/media/File:Twochocolatefish.JPG

        /sarc

  25. Brendan 26

    The government can easily talk to them – simply send someone who they can cut cut loose if things don't work out. There are plenty of people who could fit the bill – many ex Labour MP's for example.

    Sure there are werdos/Nazi etc. out there. But not all of them are. You have Tamaki's Freedom and Rights group as one example.

    As for the health crisis – these people don't care. Covid has taken their job and their freedom etc. The protests are a symptom of the grumpyness of a major minority of the population.

    If the protestors have nothing to lose – then they become radicalized and very dangerous.

  26. PsyclingLeft.Always 27

    @ Mickey Savage.

    Why negotiating with the Wellington protesters is a waste of time

    Great Post. And absolutely !

  27. Jenny how to get there 28

    Negotiations have begun.

    Finally

    …Sean Rush, who has also engaged with anti-mandate advocates, supported Foster.

    “Talking opens a door to peaceful resolution and blessed are the peacemakers. I’m annoyed he didn’t take me,” Rush said.

    Simon Woolf said Foster was right to take the meeting if the city could benefit – and he took the meeting after police approval.

    'Dangerous' and 'appalling': Fury after Wellington mayor meets protesters

    Tom Hunt 09:21, Feb 23 2022

    There are only two solutions to clearing the streets and returning Wellington to some sort of normality. A violent confrontation or a negotiated solution.

    I mean really, surely only those who want a violent confrontation could be appalled at the Mayor opening up negotiations with them..

    I don't mean giving into the protesters silly demands. As far as I am concerned that is frankly off the table. But negotiations need to be entered into to clear away the vehicle blockade that is infringing on people's freedom to go about their daily business. I hope the Mayor as well as taking the initiative of engaging with these protesters warned them that he will be taking his duty to the city of Wellington seriously and will begin removing all their illegally parked vehicles. And that threats and violence will not be tolerated. In exchange for an agreement to either voluntarily remover their vehicles or not engage in violent resistance their main protest will not be interfered with.

    Peace Aotearoa

    Blessed are the peacemakers

    • Jenny how to get there 28.1

      Seems the government has gone for the Trevor Mallard solution.

      The Prime Minister has said that "This will not define us."

      I hope she's right.

      My fear is that it will. And the best Prime Minister of my life time will lose the next election.

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