Why New Zealand First Will Get Back In

Written By: advantage - Date published: 10:32 am, August 17th, 2023 - 70 comments
Categories: election 2023, International, nz first, winston peters - Tags:

Winston’s term with Ardern shows what high-delivery, low-foolishness government looked like. That’s why he’s rising again.

Ron Mark the Minister of Defence got through two of the biggest defence purchases in decades: the replacement into new ‘Super-Hercules’ to replace the old ones for troop deployment and regional crisis support. The second was to replace the old P3 Orions with the new P8 Poseidons. Also a really big upgrade to the Ohakea Airbase to deal with them. He also oversaw the completion of the giant HMNZS Aotearoa supply ship. He also instigated upgrades to a number of Pacific Island airports and air strips, which have been completed over the last 2 years. We are much stronger in defence because of NZFirst in their Ardern term.

Winston Peters got the largest investment in foreign aid we had seen in years, and used it to good effect almost as soon as he was elected doing a speech into the Lowy Centre think tank and promised everyone that we were there to play our part in reversing growing Chinese influence. Lowy Institute is where all Australian defence and foreign affairs players hang. When the Christchurch massacre occurred, Prime Minister Ardern dispatched Peters as Foreign Minister to a swathe of Muslim-dominated governments to assure them that we were fully on their side and we would right ourselves.

It was Winston’s leadership in the first Ardern term, together with Ardern herself, that deeply embedded a complete change in our foreign policy.

Then there’s the $3 billion for the Provincial Growth Fund. That was $2 billion more than proposed in the coalition agreement. It was a roaring success, far better than anyone had ever expected. It also proved to be the critical template for accelerating projects which was to be so helpful in the massive NZUP post-COVID rebuild fund, and most of those projects are still in construction. This fund and its programme was by a long, long way the largest investment in provincial or regional economic development in half a century. Helen Clark’s industry growth frameworks usually had the locals do most of the work and over half the funding, and that was still a country mile better than multiple previous governments.

The move to make a Zero Carbon Act and an independent Climate Commision came from the NZFirst-Labour coalition agreement, not the Greens. It also required that when agriculture went into the ETS, all revenues from this source would be recycled back into agriculture. We would have happy farmers making carbon money. Imagine that now.

Then there’s the ‘handbrake’ moves of which Winston Peters is quite reasonably proud in the first Ardern term.

The first is the decision by Winston Peters to actively kill off the light rail funding deal. This particular deal was one in which the lead Minister Phil Twyford, was alone powerfully seduced by a Canadian pension company to provide an unlimited franchise to one company to build, own and operate light rail with no connection to any local ticketing system or transport system. It was literally a license to print money. Twyford handled it all so badly that he was demoted, and a few months later demoted further. And it was Winston Peters that killed that deal in cabinet. When we can now see the light rail costs ballooning out now by the tens of billions, and no national integrated ticketing system in sight, Winston clearly made the right move.

Then there was the decision by the Ardern government to reject the Spark bid with Huawei to upgrade 5G infrastructure. While widely seen as uniting within similar bans from the United States and Australia, in reality it was more targeted. I’ve got no proof but this has Winston Peters fingerprints all over it.

Another was the coalition agreement move not to proceed with another parliament building. Imagine how opening that would have gone down with the public right now.

The likelihood of the Births Deaths and Marriages self-identity clause getting through Parliament let alone Cabinet under Winston Peters would be zero. He had and has no time for what in 2020 he called “woke pixie dust.” What we see now in 2023 is a fractious, splintered leftist movement that has rapidly turned against each other and whose key achievement, Three Waters, has been one of the governments’ most politically expensive disasters.

Winston Peters certainly had a hand in killing off a Capital Gains Tax in April 2019. Whether this was a convenient excuse for Ardern at the time or not, Prime Minister Hipkins certainly understands that Winston’s political calculus was more accurate than those of Parker or Robertson. It wasn’t Hipkins that killed it off. Listen to what Peters said in July 2020 of high-tax parties and see if he’s wrong when you see our economic doldrums now:

The only idea these people ever have is how to spend someone else’s money and no idea how to grow a nation’s economy. Tax policy needs to be smart, targeted towards our exporters, growth in the economy and jobs, jobs, jobs.”

Uncomfortable for the die-hard remnant of Ardern supporters though it may be, Winston Peters was the only politician to engage with the protesters on the grounds of Parliament in 2022. New Zealanders are not fickle and Winston’s people do remember. Those protesters and their families will reward him for it and Labour will in part be punished for it.

Winston Peters together with his colleague Shane Jones were the only New Zealand politicians who sought to publicly hold our largest business, Fonterra, to any kind of account. The current Labour government have legislated again and again to give them everything they want. Fonterra have continued to make New Zealand one of the most narrow and vulnerable exporting economies in the world, to just one country, China. Fonterra through 2018 made huge losses, marked down everything it owned, started to sell off all its overseas businesses, and rapidly shrank. Our one business of any internationally competitive scale. Fonterra’s multi-decade promises to increase its value-added goods have been nothing but lies. Shane Jones also called for the Chair of Air New Zealand to be sacked, for abandoning regional New Zealand centres. Just imagine if we had a current government who really held our key companies to account whether public or private.

Had Winston Peters been in the coalition this term, there is 0% chance that Mahuta and Sage would have been able to cook up their late-night SOP to entrench the 3 Waters legislation to achieve a 60% vote in order to privatise the water entities that were then proposed. Not because he would have opposed the idea of resisting sales of water entities, but because he would have targeted the legislation towards centralised governance and not an irrational regional hybrid that we had last left behind with provincial government in the 1870s.

Winston Peters got stuff done in the Ardern government because he was one of the very few in there with the experience to make a deal, how to get it paid for, how to deliver it, how to take credit for it, and how not to over-extend. None of those elements were evident in the 2020 coalition arrangement.

That is why New Zealand First are going to get back into parliament in 8 weeks time.

70 comments on “Why New Zealand First Will Get Back In ”

Comments are now closed

tsmithfield 1

17 August 2023 at 10:39 am

I tend to agree with you. And, NZ First is a natural home for dissatisfied central Labour supporters who don't want to vote Labour this time around, but can't stomach the thought of voting National. And vice versa I guess.

The interesting thing will be whether he has the casting vote on which coalition gets into government.
- DS 1.1
  
  17 August 2023 at 12:22 pm
  
  New Zealand First in 2023 is quite a different beast from the New Zealand First of 2017 or 2008. This version of Winston doesn't get the support of centrist Labourites (of course not, Labour is centre), and his days of economic interest are over.
  
  This Winston has decided that there are enough kooky conspiracy theorists obsessed with "globalism" and vaccines and transgender plots to get him to 5%. Turns out he's probably right, in that the Upper North Island has become a petri dish of such views. He'll do abysmally in the South Island though.
mickysavage 2

17 August 2023 at 10:39 am

Ad and I agree about most things and disagree only occasionally.

On this I disagree with him. NZ First was a major handbrake and stopped development of important policy particularly in terms of climate change.

His return to Parliament would IMHO be a very retrograde step.
- Ad 2.1
  
  17 August 2023 at 11:17 am
  
  🙂 Comrade.
  - mickysavage 2.1.1
    
    17 August 2023 at 11:57 am
    
    😀
- Patricia Bremner 2.2
  
  17 August 2023 at 11:58 am
  
  Winston also likes to be in control, but at arms length, so often others do the work.
  
  I remember, he did not "see" his mate Nash being too friendly with donors or fishing companies.
  
  I remember he has not repaid the $100000.
  
  I remember he can grandstand, and has never admitted there is climate change.
  
  I remember his seeming disparagement of all Maori asperations as divisive and racist,
  
  I remember his "walk" in front of Parliament among the squatters and protestors was for personal attention and theatre, not in sympathy for their ideas.
  
  He is clever devious and a great opportunist. But to say he is good for Government is a huge stretch. imo.
  
  It is always about Winston.
  - Roger Dewhurst 2.2.1
    
    20 August 2023 at 2:35 pm
    
    Man made climate change is just a con which most people are too stupid to understand. For the last two million years or so we have been going through glacial-interglacial cycles increasing from 40,000 years to 125,000 years in the last half million years. These climatic cycles relate substantially to the Milancovic cycles but modified by solar cycles and continental movements. Currently the glacial-interglacial cycle in which modern humanity evolved has a 1000 year solar warming and cooling cycle superimposed on it. We see the Roman Warm Period about 2000 years ago followed by the cold Dark Ages, then by the Mediaeval Warm Period about 1000 years ago, followed by the Little Ice Age and now the current warm period. That is our climate, a 125,000 year cycle. It is not a 30, 40 or 50 year period. Carbon dioxide has almost nothing to do with it except its increase hundreds of years AFTER climatic warming commences. Why? Warm seas release carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Cold seas absorb carbon dioxide. Made made global warming is peddled by corrupt academics feathering their own nests and politicians too stupid to understand the nature of geological time. We have NO idea whether NZ is a net contributor of carbon dioxide to the world's atmosphere or not. We have NO array of stations on the west and east coasts recording wind speeds, wind directions and tenor of carbon dioxide. Without these we have NO clue whether or not our forests and vegetation absorb, as food, most or all of our carbon dioxide emissions. Roger Dewhurst
    
    [Letting this through because it is sincerely argued and is a neat synopsis of all of the deinalist claims mixed in with a profound level of scientific illiteracy – MS]
- DS 2.3
  
  17 August 2023 at 12:47 pm
  
  As 2020-2023 amply demonstrated, Winston Peters wasn't the handbrake in 2017-2020. Labour itself was the handbrake – Winston was just the excuse.
  
  But people thinking this is the 2017 Winston are not paying attention.
- Macro 2.4
  
  17 August 2023 at 1:14 pm
  
  NZ First was a major handbrake and stopped development of important policy particularly in terms of climate change.
  
  His return to Parliament would IMHO be a very retrograde step.
  
  Totally agree. Jeanette Fitzsimmons once told me how she became aware of the then Labour Govt's ditching of the then proposed introduction of the Carbon Tax – which the Greens totally supported. She visited Helen Clarke's office once after Winston had been with the PM. On her desk was a draft Bill for an ETS. This was the first occasion that the Green's had any indication of the change in direction to putting a price on Carbon emissions. A scheme so deficient that NZ's Carbon emissions have shown no significant decline since it's inception:
  
  New Zealand’s gross greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have shown no sustained reductions compared with 2005. In 2020 New Zealand’s gross greenhouse gas emissions were 78.8 million tonnes of CO2-e, 4.7 percent lower than 2005 and 20.8 percent higher than 1990. Emissions were 3.5 percent lower than 2019, primarily due to decreased emissions from road transport, which – in a year of covid lockdowns –saw the biggest annual decrease since the start of the time series (down 8.3 percent).
  
  https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/new-zealands-greenhouse-gas-emissions
  - Anne 2.4.1
    
    17 August 2023 at 1:47 pm
    
    I gave Winston P full credit for his revelations concerning the Winebox papers back in the 1990s. Since then his so-called contributions to good government have been, in the main, questionable. He stymied several of this government's policy positions in their first term. He would say they were bad policy. He was wrong.
    
    He has fallen out with both sides due to his intransigence. Few of his complaints seem based on genuine beliefs or concerns. His views are populist style… designed to appeal to the less politically aware among us. A good example is his courting of the conspiracy theorists and extremists.
    
    If he's not willing to campaign for, or give moral support to his own people, then he can't be trusted to do so for the rest of us.
    
    I rest my case.
    - Chris 2.4.1.1
      
      17 August 2023 at 2:35 pm
      
      It would be hilarious if NZF's re-emergence, together with the inflation of certain egos, had the effect of denying a nactoid government. Probably unlikely but, ironically, might be the only hope Labour's got.
      - bwaghorn 2.4.1.1.1
        
        17 August 2023 at 6:42 pm
        
        Nzf at 4.9% good, anything above that gaurentees a 3 headed monster,
        
        Ngungukai 2.4.1.1.1.1
        
        18 August 2023 at 4:55 am
        
        NZF tracking at 7-9% at present.
Blazer 3

17 August 2023 at 10:46 am

I think Winston will bolt into Parliament.

Luxon hoping in vain for guidance from the polls to…rule him..out.

I see NZ First have a policy of capping immigration at 15,000 per an.
Ngungukai 4

17 August 2023 at 10:51 am

Winston and NZF is the only viable alternative, most of the Policy put through in the 2017 Coalition Labour/NZF Government was NZF Policy. The removal of GST from fresh fruit and vegetables has always been NZ Policy since Adam was a Cowboy !!!
Hunter Thompson II 5

17 August 2023 at 10:53 am

Can't say I see the Provincial Growth Fund as a roaring success for NZ First. The Auditor-General was highly critical of its performance and lack of accountability: https://www.newsroom.co.nz/national-threatens-pgf-cuts-after-damning-auditor-general-report

I recall another report of $160,000 being wasted on a Northland forestry scheme that failed because the land was useless for a timber plantation.

I concede that Winston stalled crazy policy proposals in other areas, and there is no shortage of those at present.
Sanctuary 6

17 August 2023 at 10:53 am

If that is NZ First's immigration policy then it is classic playing to elite theory, where elites are the insiders who shape consensus reality and whose moral and political views dominate. The elites of both the left ("woke elite") and right (metropolitian upper class) love immigration. It is a lot less popular with the great unwashed, who are forced to live in the reality created by those elites and think they are victimised if they question it.
- Blazer 6.1
  
  17 August 2023 at 11:17 am
  
  I can see a contradiction in your argument there.
  
  Who do you think these 'elites' vote for?
Anker 7

17 August 2023 at 11:02 am

100% Ad. Thanks for setting out what Winston achieved in 2017 – 2020.

This article has all but cemented my vote for him.

it was Tracey Martin who moth balled the gender self ID bill.

unfortunayely Tinetti resurrected it. A recent Curia poll undertaken for SUFW showed only 20% of the voting public supported self ID.

the alienating woke identity politic have driven many women from labour. As a previously loyal party member, they lost my support (although it wasn’t just the gender self ID, many of their other policies made it easy for me to leave.
- Ngungukai 7.1
  
  18 August 2023 at 4:59 am
  
  Jacinda hand picked Tracey Martin to be her right hand woman as her had a lot of political experience and had been Deputy Leader of NZF, Tracey Martin is a very competent person in the Education & Health Fields and her mother Anne Martin was President of NZF for a long time. Anne Martin was one of the founding members of NZF.
Anker 8

17 August 2023 at 11:07 am

Before I could post this link in my comment @7 my comment was published.

https://www.speakupforwomen.nz/post/majority-of-new-zealanders-do-not-support-sex-self-id

this is the link to the Curia poll showing only 20% NZderssupport self ID.

winston has now come out saying that he will put forward legislation to preserve single sex spaces and women’s sport for women only
- SPC 8.1
  
  17 August 2023 at 4:14 pm
  
  National and NZ First appear to be in conflict over policy.
  
  https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/08/17/luxon-says-nz-first-transgender-bathrooms-policy-on-another-planet/
  - SPC 8.1.1
    
    17 August 2023 at 4:34 pm
    
    WP should have kept it simple – repeal of self ID.
    
    Then guaranteed.
    
    1. women's refugees can refuse access to anyone they choose on the grounds of safety (from being drunk, on drugs, to being aggressive or having a past …)
    
    2. lesbian groups (gathering spaces or online) having the right to exclude those not biologically female, if they choose.
    
    3. sports groups having biological sex categories for females – on grounds of fair competition, or safety as they choose.
    
    Bathrooms/changing rooms policy is the harder part – given the transsexuals/managed transition of the past.
    - Tabletennis 8.1.1.1
      
      18 August 2023 at 2:43 pm
      
      Even under the new Self-Id law: In New Zealand, it is still legal to provide single sex services and spaces for girls and women.
      
      Questions about the implications of self-identification for service providers.
      
      What does the new law say about how service providers should consider birth certificates as evidence of sex or gender?
      
      The new legislation clarifies how birth certificates can be used as evidence of sex or gender. Where service providers need to determine someone’s sex or gender, other factors can be considered over and above the sex listed on a birth certificate. This reflects the fact that birth certificates are not intended to be considered evidence of a person’s identity (usually birth certificates are provided with other documents such as a driver licence or passports to prove identity).
      
      What will self-identification mean for single sex spaces and activities such as changing rooms and sports teams?
      
      The self-identification process should not affect how access to single sex spaces or sports is determined. Birth certificates are not usually used to determine a person’s right to access single sex services or spaces.
      
      <
      
      p style=”text-align:justify”>Organisations and individuals can continue to rely on their own policies rather than birth certificates. For example, it is still up to individual governing bodies to determine how sex and gender are determined in sport. It is also still up to individual schools to discuss with learners, parents, caregivers and whānau what name and gender learners use, regardless of the details on their birth certificates.
      
      SPEAK UP FOR WOMEN – Because Sex matters
      - SPC 8.1.1.1.1
        
        18 August 2023 at 2:54 pm
        
        To the extent that self-ID is based around the singularity of changing information on a birth certificate.
        
        Yes sports have been informed, they can have their own player safety rules in community sport and abide by international fair competition (exclusion of those who transitioned after puberty etc).
        
        Link/links?
      - SPC 8.1.1.1.2
        
        18 August 2023 at 3:11 pm
        
        https://www.speakupforwomen.nz/self-id
newsense 9

17 August 2023 at 11:37 am

So you only have to back up claims in the comments?
Kat 10

17 August 2023 at 11:57 am

"New Zealanders are not fickle………………"

Maybe not all are fickle but a lot sure are politically illiterate……
gsays 11

17 August 2023 at 12:17 pm

Gold Card!

Don't forget Gold Card!

I recall Winston, around 2017 election saying something like the neo-liberal experiment had run its course and wasn't working.

Maybe his influence could see the next government pivot away from it and enact meaningful change that leads to a more resilient self reliant Aotearoa.

Dare to dream.
- Ngungukai 11.1
  
  18 August 2023 at 5:01 am
  
  The Neoliberal Experiment has never worked, It was one bid Con Job – FACT !!!
  - Ngungukai 11.1.1
    
    18 August 2023 at 5:02 am
    
    Correction BIG CON JOB !!!
Corey 12

17 August 2023 at 12:34 pm

Yes actually, I agree with you.

A lot of lefty's hate Winston, but without him we'd probably be in a fifth term of national govt (had they handled covid well)

The 2017-2020 govt achieved quite a lot, NZF's is a weird party that is often to the left of Labour economically and to the right of national socially.

Sure Winston and co blocked the CGT but outside of it, the biggest handbrake to progressive change in the last six years was Labour not New Zealand first, evidenced by how labour gutted the Keynesian pgf overnight.

I actually see room in parliament for NZF, Top, a working class left party, a genuine libertarian party (not acts neolib in drag)

The more parties the better quite frankly.
James Simpson 13

17 August 2023 at 12:35 pm

Winston will act as a good brake to a Luxon lead government.

My suspicion is his popularity will increase if it looks like the right are likely to win as people will be terrified of the ACT influence. If a vote for Labour looks likely to be wasted if they can't for a government, then people will vote Winston to slow Luxo down.
Mike the Lefty 14

17 August 2023 at 12:48 pm

NZF supporters have to work out what exactly they are voting for.

Are they voting for a continuation of the Labour led government, a NACT coalition or a hung parliament (and another election)?

They don't seem to know because Peters either doesn't know himself, or won't tell them.

If you support a (rising) minor party you should know the consequences of your vote and if NZF supporters are not interested in the consequences then it suggests that the party really has fallen under the influence of the conspiracy theorists who just want to create political chaos in NZ.
- arkie 14.1
  
  17 August 2023 at 12:54 pm
  
  He has told them, multiple times, this is the most recent:
  
  NZ First leader Winston Peters is sticking to his guns in refusing to form a coalition Government with Labour.
  
  https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/heather-du-plessis-allan-drive/audio/winston-peters-nz-first-leader-rules-out-coalition-with-labour-after-the-election/
  
  In 2022: https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/11/nz-first-leader-winston-peters-rules-out-coalition-with-labour.html
  - Mike the Lefty 14.1.1
    
    17 August 2023 at 1:47 pm
    
    In the meantime Seymour rules out working with Winston.
    
    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/30094195/act-categorically-rules-out-working-with-winston-peters-and-nz-first.
    
    So where does that leave NZ First voters?
    - arkie 14.1.1.1
      
      17 August 2023 at 1:52 pm
      
      Where they always are; supporting Winston's ego, and in this election, buoying the chances of a National led government. He has, as I have shown, been clear that he will not work with Labour.
      
      We must vote for what is actually presented by the politicians, not what we hope will happen, most parties are clear with their intentions, including NZFirst.
    - DS 14.1.1.2
      
      17 August 2023 at 2:24 pm
      
      Obvious solution is National-NZ First Coalition that uses ACT the way Labour uses the Greens.
    - Ngungukai 14.1.1.3
      
      18 August 2023 at 5:06 am
      
      Winston will not do any deals until after the 2023 Election, if you like Winston and NZF Policies vote NZF, if you do not like Winston but you like NZ Policies vote NZF, If you do not like Winston or NZF vote for who you prefer, National, ACT, Labour, Green, TMP or TOP. It is your choice, that is what MMP is about.
pat 15

17 August 2023 at 1:22 pm

Of a dozen or so people I know well (well enough to ask who they will vote for) I was surprised to learn that of that group almost all of whom voted Labour at the last election, over half are now planning to vote for NZ First.

Make of that what you will
- bwaghorn 15.1
  
  17 August 2023 at 6:45 pm
  
  Because??
  - pat 15.1.1
    
    17 August 2023 at 7:38 pm
    
    That is the question…some said because they cant vote for national or Labour (for various reasons)…and most of them stated that what Winston was saying made sense (?)
UncookedSelachimorpha 16

17 August 2023 at 3:05 pm

"Listen to what Peters said in July 2020 of high-tax parties and see if he’s wrong when you see our economic doldrums now"

The view that tax cuts (which usually favour the rich) drive economic growth, is as incorrect as the belief that boot camps are effective. If you want small government and low tax, move to a third world country, they have it set up and waiting for you.

Keeping tax low for the rich does not boost economy

Our results show that…major tax cuts for the rich increase the top 1% share of pre-tax national income in the years following the reform. The magnitude of the effect is sizeable….The results also show that economic performance, as measured by real GDP per capita and the unemployment rate, is not significantly affected by major tax cuts for the rich. The estimated effects for these variables are statistically indistinguishable from zero.
Shanreagh 17

17 August 2023 at 3:08 pm

Winston may 'say' he will rule out working with Labour…..it used to be Jacinda Ardern, I am sure that he would not turn down an approach from a possible Labour Govt short of a few seats. Just never say never or think never. NZF policies are, if the past is anything to go by, for the most part sensible, practical, not scary and could provide a menu for a coaliton agreement. We could do worse. Labour/Greens/NZF.

Apart from his strange cohort of candidates, not all of them mind, he does know his stuff. I am sure that he will be able to control his caucus.
- DS 17.1
  
  17 August 2023 at 4:13 pm
  
  It's not the policies of the past. It's anti-vaxxerism, obsessing about transgender people, and cracking down on perceived Wokeness. It's far-right Culture War for anyone paying attention – and in this case, Winston's pulling in the same direction as ACT, just without the tax cut obsession.
  - Shanreagh 17.1.1
    
    17 August 2023 at 4:16 pm
    
    Yes well people have different opinions and the more the merrier.
    
    I think the premise of Ad is that his opinion is that Winston/NZF has a chance of getting in. I am agreeing with him and saying that. Doesn’t mean that i am voting NZF or agree with all/any/some of his policies.
  - Anne 17.1.2
    
    17 August 2023 at 6:35 pm
    
    He's a snake in the grass. Twisting and turning every which way. Depending on the outcome, he will choose according to who he thinks will suit "his party" best. Make no mistake he owns the party lock, stock and barrel and politics is just a game to which he is addicted.
    
    He will get away with it through a combination of subterfuge and charm. My much loved godmother who passed away in the late 1990s adored him.
rod 18

17 August 2023 at 4:04 pm

Winston Peters has had is time, he is 77 years old. God help us.
- Shanreagh 18.1
  
  17 August 2023 at 4:20 pm
  
  A little bit of ageism with your late afternoon tea, perhaps?
observer 19

17 August 2023 at 4:12 pm

The only possible excuses for believing Winston's words are …

1) You are a new immigrant, having just got off the plane

2) You are a teenager who has not voted before, or even paid attention to politics

3) You have suffered a recent head injury and remember nothing

For the rest of us, 30+ years of Winston is more than enough time to learn what he stands for (= Winston) and who he will work with (= anyone who is offering a bauble).

The issues don't matter. He doesn't care – as long as they give Winston headlines, it has ranged from Asian immigration, smacking, the Treaty, vaccination, bathrooms … any soapbox, for any fools. Don't be one.

Or get that head injury checked.
- Anne 19.1
  
  17 August 2023 at 6:38 pm
- Patricia Bremner 19.2
  
  17 August 2023 at 6:56 pm
  
  devilishly delightful.
- georgecom 19.3
  
  19 August 2023 at 11:44 pm
  
  that is why I have long called the party Winston First as that is fairly much what it is.
SPC 20

17 August 2023 at 4:27 pm

NZ First will not support a NACT coalition and ACT will not support a National -NZF coalition.

National expect to obtain c and s from both and govern as a minority, as they did 2008-2017 (albeit with NZF in place of United and TPM)
- DS 20.1
  
  17 August 2023 at 4:31 pm
  
  In 2008-2017, National was dealing with vassal parties. ACT is too damned big to be a vassal now (a good twice the size of NZ First, even if Winston gets in).
  - SPC 20.1.1
    
    17 August 2023 at 4:36 pm
    
    If WP supports ACT in government his legacy is ruined.
    
    Don't under-estimate National – they funded the return of NZF to lock up Seymour in his Epsom cage.
  - observer 20.1.2
    
    17 August 2023 at 4:38 pm
    
    True enough, but the ultimate question is the only one that matters:
    
    "Would ACT vote against National on Conf & Supp?".
    
    Obviously, never.
observer 21

17 August 2023 at 4:33 pm

By the way, the OP is way off the mark. The general public are not sitting down with a microscope to study the details of NZF in government. And "New Zealanders are not fickle" is a truly strange take. Every 3 years the voters prove exactly the opposite, which is why National and Labour fluctuate from 20 to 50%, depending on the sun and moon and the leader's star rising.

This contrary devil's advocate stuff is fun as a parlour game but it's not to be taken seriously.

People are restless and Luxon's hopeless. Hence the shop-around. That's it.
- gsays 21.1
  
  17 August 2023 at 5:48 pm
  
  "which is why National and Labour fluctuate from 20 to 50%, depending on the sun and moon and the leader's star rising."
  
  Also the performance of the ABs…
- Ad 21.2
  
  17 August 2023 at 6:48 pm
  
  2020 was an outlier.
  
  It's usually a very small shift to make one coalition or another.
  
  Hence 2017 was close, as was 2014, 2008, and all the way back to the start of MMP in 1993.
  
  Go ahead dismiss Winston.
  - Patricia Bremner 21.2.1
    
    17 August 2023 at 7:06 pm
    
    That is the problem Ad, he can't be dismissed, as he loves to appear pivotal
  - observer 21.2.2
    
    17 August 2023 at 7:30 pm
    
    I don't dismiss Winston's prospects, only the over-thinking about why.
    
    "Plague on both your houses" is common to many democracies, including NZ. When both major parties are failing to connect, then the gap opens up. No different from Germany, UK, Australia, etc. It's a feature of our time.
    
    NZF getting 5% is obviously possible, because National's emptiness has let them in. That explains it far more than the list you offer, most of which the public barely know.
    
    Sometimes the obvious answer really is the right one. Luxon is no Key, therefore Winston benefits.
    - Ad 21.2.2.1
      
      17 August 2023 at 8:35 pm
      
      It takes far less than 5% of voters to think and persuade to get to 5% of voters.
Chess Player 22

17 August 2023 at 8:02 pm

How are you measuring success of the Provincial Growth Fund?

Dollars spent, or outcomes achieved?

Genuine question, as I live in the provinces.
- Ad 22.1
  
  17 August 2023 at 8:34 pm
  
  Have a look and make your own determination:
  
  https://www.growregions.govt.nz/established-funds/what-we-have-funded/the-provincial-growth-fund/
SPC 23

17 August 2023 at 8:47 pm

None of those elements were evident in the 2020 ~~coalition arrangement~~ co-operation agreement.

https://www.parliament.nz/media/7554/labour_greens_cooperation_agreement-1.pdf
- Ad 23.1
  
  17 August 2023 at 10:03 pm
  
  You're about to assert that the "purpose and goals of the Zero Carbon Act" have been achieved as per that agreement?
  
  Go for it.
  
  Or you are able to show as I actually stated that this current government has "the experience to make a deal, how to get it paid for, how to deliver it, how to take credit for it, and how not to over-extend.".
  
  Best of luck with that one as well.
  
  Must surely be time for someone to do a post showing what the Greens have achieved this term.
  - SPC 23.1.1
    
    17 August 2023 at 10:07 pm
    
    I am sure you first must demonstrate the success of the 2017-2020 coalition government to deliver on KiwiBuild …
Darien Fenton 24

18 August 2023 at 3:45 am

I can't believe I am reading this on the Standard. It's all about Winston. Tell me any of their candidates ; Shane Jones might get a nod and takes money from Talleys to fund his campaign. Jenny Marcroft left the party but has come back to the same "boys club" she left in the first place, there are recycled MPs who never did a thing, there's that Waka jumper who used to be a National MP and stood in Roskill. Have a look at some of the looniness that is emerging among other candidates. Have a look at donations from big business going to NZ First. As for the handbrake. I live in the West and I saw the signs from NZ First saying only they could get rid of National in 1996. They didn't and signed up to a continuation of the worst 10 years of workers' lives. The handbrake in 2017? NZ First blocked Fair Pay Agreements, progress of rights for contractors, anything to do with climate change and many other Labour initiatives that would have made a difference. I will concede he was a good foreign minister, and that's where he probably should have gone ; an ambassadorship overseas somewhere. Tracey Martin was a good Minister, but resigned from NZ First after the election ; and showed much integrity in doing so. NZ First policies are a sad joke as they desperately seek to compete on the same ground as Freedom NZ and Brian Tamaki by pushing populist buttons they think might get them enough votes. Oh and where is their List? Winston seems to think he has veto over it until the last minute. Great for party members eh.
- Tiger Mountain 24.1
  
  18 August 2023 at 7:04 am
  
  Rare is the day I agree with Darien, but do on this one. NZ First are poison, and they have now hitched a ride with various fruitcakes aligned with the occupation of Parliament grounds and anti vaccination and 5G.
  
  Winston could have retired with some dignity after the successes of the PGF in the Far North which included new jettys and wharves for tiny settlements few have heard of, SH round abouts and new bridges, rail upgrades, Kaikohe business and research park, Moerewa freight depot etc.
  
  But no, he chose to write a letter to the Governor General backstabbing Jacinda Ardern.
  A fitting punishment for him will be a 4.9% party vote and his exit from politics!