Winston: We Will Fight Them on The Beaches of Northland!

Written By: - Date published: 1:29 pm, February 27th, 2015 - 376 comments
Categories: by-election, labour, nz first, Politics, winston peters - Tags: , , ,

NZ First leader Winston Peters has confirmed he will contest the Northland by-election. Labour has already selected Willow-Jean Prime as its candidate and National will confirm their nominee to replace Mike Sabin in a few days time. ACT will also stand a candidate, but, frankly, nobody cares.

It’s a shame Winston’s announcement has come so late. A deal with Labour might have been on the cards if he’d acted quickly, but now his candidature will be greeted with relief in the National camp, because a split vote can only help them. Mind you, if the truth about National’s covering up for Mike Sabin is as bad as has been suggested in some quarters and comes out during the campaign, who knows?

Anyway, one thing we do know for sure, a Winston Peters campaign is always good fun. Perhaps he could use his namesake’s speech as his own when he launches his bid:

We shall fight on the beaches of Northland, we shall fight on the treaty grounds, we shall fight in the fields of Kaikohe and in the streets of Kaitaia, we shall fight in the hills of Kawakawa; we shall never surrender!

376 comments on “Winston: We Will Fight Them on The Beaches of Northland!”

  1. Pasupial 1

    As with all byelections, this will be an opportunity for the candidates to state their respective parties position on issues of the day. Peters would have had to be a lot more likely to win for Labour to give up that media platform. It’s almost a shame that the Greens have bowed out of the race, given this lack of cooperation between the other opposition parties

    I’d predict that Peters is likely to get more votes than Prime, but National will keep the seat. Based on the 2014 party votes:

    48.97% National
    16.63% Labour
    12.79% NZF
    10.84% Green
    6.31% Conservative
    1.69% IMP

    http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2014/e9/html/e9_part8_party_35.html

    • Sans Cle 1.1

      Pasupial, I know there are different boundaries between Te Tai Tokerau and Northland electorates, but what would party support look like if they were joined?

    • Karen 1.2

      If you look at the candidate vote you get a different picture. The NZF candidate only got 4.8% so the 12.79% is for Winston. He’ll do better in the by election because he will campaign in Northland and there will some disaffected National voters using Winston as their protest vote. He is more likely to appeal to white conservatives in IMO. The rednecks are willing to overlook his being Maori because he often plays to their prejudices.

      Willow-Jean got 25.89% of the candidate vote and I’d expect her to get most of the 10.5% of the votes that went to the Green candidate. Will she be able to get enough to win? Unlikely, but I expect her to do better than Peters if Labour and Green supporters vote.

      • ghostwhowalksnz 1.2.1

        NZ First didnt have candidate for the electorate vote so they couldnt have any votes

        • Karen 1.2.1.1

          You are right – only party vote for NZF as no candidate. Having Winston campaign will get more votes than NZF party vote last time, but I still don’t see it being more than for Prime.

      • Chris 1.2.2

        Still, it’s just plain dumb for Labour to contest the seat. They haven’t learned a thing. That’s why we’re going to have many more years of right-wing filth grinding us into the dirt. Labour has a lot to answer to. Useless pricks.

        • Clemgeopin 1.2.2.1

          From your previous comments, it is clear that you are a supporter of the Greens who claim to support human rights, democracy, freedom of choice etc.

          So, do you really think it is right for Labour or some other party to make the decision on the voters’ behalf before the election and deprive them in that electorate from having a free choice to decide who THEY want as their electorate MP, rather than what you or me want to happen for whatever reason? I think most People will work it all out themselves in their own best interests.

          Trust them. That is the vest way.

          • felix 1.2.2.1.1

            There are ways of doing that too. Anyone in Epsom is free to vote for the National candidate, but National makes it clear that doing so could make it less likely that National can form a government.

            It’s not rocket surgery. You just need to resist the urge to cut off your nose.

            • Clemgeopin 1.2.2.1.1.1

              Well said!

              • felix

                Also it’s worth noting that National can pull this off because they maintain well organised networks to pass the message through the community, and more importantly their natural constituency are ready for the message and listening to what the party has to say.

                Why? Because they know National will govern in their interest. They don’t require convincing.

                That is relevance. Labour used to have it too.

    • Tiger Mountain 1.3

      This is a mini first past the post contest, party vote does not count, no Greens for a kick off and there are a few rats and mice too which presuming they turn out will have to go somewhere.

      Candidate Votes 2014 Gen Election:
      National Mike Sabin 18,269
      Labour Willow-Jean Prime 8,969
      NZ First 4,546
      Green David Clendon 3,639
      Focus Ken Rintoul 1,661
      Conservative Melanie Taylor 1,555
      Internet Mana 601
      Māori 210
      ACT Craig Nelson 200
      Legalise Cannabis 193
      Democrats David Wilson 173
      Independent Murray Robertson 96
      Money Free Jordan Osmaston 75
      United Future 71
      Ban 1080 51
      Independent Coalition 9
      Civilian 7

      • Pasupial 1.3.1

        TM

        Emphasis on mini in this “mini first past the post contest”.

        The most recent byelection was Christchurch East, and had 13,726 votes compared to the general election’s 32,630. Yet Williams majority was 4,837 in the byelection and just 4,073 in the general. There won’t be a nationwide election commission campaign to get voters out, so it’ll be decided by who inspires people to actually get out and vote.

        Karen

        I’d expect most of the Green votes to go anywhere but Labour at the moment. I’m not a member myself at this time, but Little’s recent remarks regarding Turei have really annoyed some people I’ve talked to who are.

        • Clemgeopin 1.3.1.1

          He did not say anything against Turei. He said he preferred Shearer on that Security committee because he wanted someone with experience and knowledge in that area because Little himself did not have it yet and the experienced Normal bailed out as leader of Greens. The issue was simply blown out of proportion and turned into an unnecessary mountain out of a molehill.

          No one can really dislike Metiria. She was even in the McGillicuddy Serious Party at one time, ffs.

          • Pasupial 1.3.1.1.1

            Clemgeopin

            Green MP Mojo Mathers said she was “dismayed” by comments made by Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little.

            “He said that he did not invite our co-leader Metiria Turei to be on the committee because he wanted someone with … ‘skills, understanding and experience’ … implying that Metiria did not have these qualities, which is so far from the truth as to be farcical.”…

            “I would like to be generous and give Little — a privileged male who has been a Member of Parliament for just three years and a leader for just two months — the benefit of doubt, and assume that he made these comments without thinking.

            “But that makes these comments no less offensive to me and many other women.”

            http://www.odt.co.nz/source/nzme/333627/labour-accused-sexism

            I’m giving you the benefit of the doubt in assuming that your; “the experienced Normal bailed”, is simply a typo (rather than a statement that female political leaders are abnormal). However, you don’t have to dislike someone to treat them with patronizing contempt.

            To those standing on top of the heap, it may be convenient to treat it as a mere molehill. To those trapped under its crushing weight, it still feels like a mountain.

            • Clemgeopin 1.3.1.1.1.1

              @Pasupial “I’m giving you the benefit of the doubt in assuming that your; “the experienced Normal bailed”, is simply a typo (rather than a statement that female political leaders are abnormal). However, you don’t have to dislike someone to treat them with patronizing contempt”

              Yes, sorry, a typo. Norman.

              About your thinking about me as meaning “that female political leaders are abnormal”, No, crap. I don’t think that at all.
              About your statement, “However, you don’t have to dislike someone to treat them with patronizing contempt”, again, more rubbish from you.
              This is a robust political message board, not a ‘come by here Kumbayah lovey dovey hugs and kisses’ jam session.

              About the “To those standing on top of the heap, it may be convenient to treat it as a mere molehill. To those trapped under its crushing weight, it still feels like a mountain”. Sorry to hear that. May be just try to climb up and get over it slowly. like Edmund Hillary.

              Jeez, ma’am, what is with you? Knickers in a twist?

              As I said, a typo.

              • Pasupial

                Clemgeopin

                The “Normal” thing was obviously a typo; I was just riffing with it . As you say; it’s a sometimes “robust political message board”, though I tend to prefer to stick to linkable facts when possible.

                “May be just try to climb up and get over it slowly. like Edmund Hillary.”

                Firstly; it’s a lot easier to climb up when your supposed allies aren’t stomping on your fingers. Secondly; why like Hillary? Wouldn’t someone like Mavis Davidson be a better example?

                • Clemgeopin

                  Why? Was she the first man to climb Mount Everest? Damn, I said the man word!

                  Ok, now tell me about Mavis. I have definitely heard the name mavis, though. But can’t remember where, when and in what context! Was she born in May? Ah, may be YOU are Mavis and this is a trick question! Yes?

                  • Pasupial

                    Coauthor of; The Mountains of New Zealand, with Rodney Hewitt. Also:

                    Mavis Davidson, Doreen Urquhart and Sheila MacMurray made the first all-woman, guideless ascent of Aoraki/Mt Cook.

                    http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/search/teara?keys=Mavis+Davidson

                  • He’s suggesting you are projecting since the metaphors you use are male centric.

                    It’s a cheap shot because not only is the english language male centric, but people tend to use metaphors common to their own culture / community.
                    If, like NZ, the mainstream culture is more mascline, your metaphors are more likely to be mascline.

                    Unless you spend some time consciously reflecting on your own language use you will tend to use metaphors that reflect cultral norms.
                    And after you’ve reflected, you’re still likely to keep using metaphors that the folks around you understand.

                    btw, I interjected because I found your reply really weird.

                    • Clemgeopin

                      I was trying to be provocative and funny. You don’t get humour?, even the slapstick type? How boring is that! Loosen up, girl.

                    • Clemgeopin

                      “projecting”, “projecting” “male centric” “xcentric” “male” “cheap shot”, “masculean” ‘reflecting” “interjected” “weird”

                      Thank you, thank you, thank you a thousand and one point five times thank you. You sure are a clever dicky!
                      Now tell me sir, what am I doing at this very moment? Don’t look!

                    • Colonial Rawshark

                      You should ask yourself why Labour keeps failing to connect to Kiwi cultural norms while National does a damn fine job of it.

            • Kenya 1.3.1.1.1.2

              Metiria clearly does not have the skills, understanding and experience of David Shearer. It’s not about her being a woman – that’s just bizarre, as anyone who knows or has worked with Little will tell you.

              • So, anyone who works with Little will tell you that Metiria clearly does not have the skills, understanding and experience of David Shearer?

                That’s not much of an argument.

                Of greater concern is Littles ignorance of the law which led to him breaking it.
                He also appears unable to understand that he is leader of the opposition as well as leader of the labour party – does he think they are the same thing?

                It’s pretty obvious that his decision was ill considered.
                Shearer served on the committee while he was leader of the labour party – the greens have been actively involved in getting to the bottom of NZ spy infrastructure, it’s abuses and it’s governance since the party’s inception and it’s clear that they have been the only party demanding answers and accountability on behalf of the public.

                And, given Labours previous treatment of Ahmed Zaoui and their police action against Tuhoe – I’m not holding my breath for Shearer be anything than another nodding dog on the committee.

                And then instead of a mea culpa Little decided that being patronising and belittling toward the Greens leader was his best way forward.

                I’m sure he will grow into the role eventually. But he really does need to get his shit together.
                Too late for me though – I’ve written labour off. This incident was the last straw.

                • The immaturity shown when the Greens went straight to the media instead of raising the issue with Little just proves he got the decision right.

                  And deliberately twisting what Kenya says is poor form. Little is not the least bit sexist, so when Kenya says “It’s not about her being a woman – that’s just bizarre, as anyone who knows or has worked with Little will tell you.” that is actually the case. He chose a more experienced person, though I’m sure he wishes the communication of that decision had been better.

                  • IIRC* it was Little who spoke first to the media in response to a question.
                    The question came about were reporters following a Idiot/Savant tweet a couple of days earlier along the lines of; govt formed for x days, and no ISC committee yet. Who’s asking questions?

                    So the first the Greens had heard that the position had been filled without consultation was through the media.

                    What were they supposed to say?
                    “We believe in the rule of law, except when it’s a potential coalition partner”.

                    If a Green party MP or representative publicly condoned politicians breaking the rule of law I imagine they would be looking for a new job pronto.
                    The Green party have been consistent throughout their existance in advocating for good governance.

                    But you think that Little breaking the law and embarrassing himself reflects badly on the Greens, don’t let me stop you.

                    * my memory may be faulty, this is my recollection of events at the time – I’ve not docmented the timeline of tweets, newspaper articles and party releases

                    • On finding out about the decision, the Greens went straight to the media accusing Labour of lawbreaking and, bizarrely, sexism. They had the option of pointing out the problem in private, but instead had a hissy fit. And by doing so, proved the decision to be the right one.

                    • I have never, and will never agree with the premise that the assholes are the ones who point out bad behavior, not the ones behaving badly.

                      This is one of the cultural characteristics of nz society that really gives me the shits.

                    • Pasupial

                      TRP

                      From the ODT/ NZH article linked above:

                      During a debate in the House this afternoon on the membership of the Intelligence and Security Committee, Green MP Mojo Mathers said she was “dismayed” by comments made by Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little. [Continues as above]

                      Making a statement in a parliamentary debate is not running “straight to the media “. Furthermore:

                      Mr Little angered the Greens by nominating his foreign affairs spokesman David Shearer for the committee without consultation with other parties — a breach of the laws governing the committee.

                      This is what really infuriates the GP, and NZF too for that matter. Peters as; a former committee member and Foreign Minister, would have been a better fit than Shearer’s; former Aid Worker and never-having-held-any-ministerial-post background.

                      But my point was that Green voters have the perception of being betrayed by Labour. Obviously this is not the place where we should expect to get to the bottom of that. It has almost become a bit of distraction from the topic at hand.

                      However, it’ll be a cold day in hell before some Greens will vote for a Labour electorate candidate again. The LP had better get their head around this fact and plan their future campaigns accordingly.

                    • Colonial Rawshark

                      Labour informed the Greens of their decision through the media, they got the same treatment back.

                      Further, Labour has managed to telegraph that they don’t intend on working closely with the Greens in a collegial manner this term.

                      So be it.

                  • Why would Little say this about the person who has been in parliament for 13 years, and has led the Greens for the last 5?

                    He had rejected appointing co-leader Metiria Turei because he wanted someone with “skills, understanding and experience.”

                    Unless you’d like to ascribe his patronising put down of the manifestly skilled, informed and experienced Metiria to race?

                    • Because of context. Norman was the Green’s person on the committee, not Turei. As far as I know, she literally does not have the “skills, understanding and experience.” that Shearer does. Her response to be overlooked proves it.

                    • You’re hanging your entire argument on Shearers experience during his time as leader?
                      (While ignoring Metirias experience in govt, on govt committees and as Co-leader with Russel – you do know they work together right?)

                      Ok, I’ll, play.

                      What did Shearer achieve during his time on the committee?

                    • Colonial Rawshark

                      Got Labour to vote for more badly controlled mass surveillance under the guise of “anti-terrorism”.

          • Murray Rawshark 1.3.1.1.2

            It came across as Little calling Metiria unskilled, inexperienced, and ignorant of security issues. It showed that Little is part of the two party club that thinks it owns Aotearoa, much like FJK is part of the western club that invades other countries. It was a very strong statement against the Greens in general, and Metiria in particular.

            I can see Green voters giving Winnie a chance rather than Labour. I think Labour should pull out.

      • ghostwhowalksnz 1.3.2

        again you are giving NZFirst candidate votes when they didnt have a person standing.
        the 4546 is party vote for NZF.

        • Clemgeopin 1.3.2.1

          I think they are mixing up FNZ (The cunning Focus New Zealand) for NZF…A common mistake.

          • ghostwhowalksnz 1.3.2.1.1

            Its a national party astroturf exercise. As some have pointed out he has links to the NP.

            National will also be making sure that Act dont stand,

      • Tiger Mountain 1.3.3

        my mistake, NZ First should not be in list at 1.3

    • Clemgeopin 1.4

      By-election does not involve party votes. Only candidate votes.

      At the recent election there was 80% participation. I suspect that the participation for the by-election may be around 60%.

      The main results at last election were:

      Candidate Valid Votes Share (%)

      SABIN, Mike (NAT) 18,269 52.74
      PRIME, Willow-Jean (LAB) 8,969 25.89
      CLENDON, David (GP) 3,639 10.51
      RINTOUL, Ken (FNZ) 1,661 4.8
      TAYLOR, Mel (CNSP) 1,555 4.49

      Total Valid Votes 34,637
      Total Votes Cast 36,112

      Also note that Sabin’s margin in 2014 had gone down by about 5% compared to his own 2011 results which was at 57.55. Expect that to go down much more this time around due to many political reasons.

      Sir Winston Peters joining the fray is politically very exciting, whichever way the results fall.

      It is quite possible that Key may be booking early tickets to Hawaii.

      Personally, if I was in that electorate, I would have had to seriously consider the polls, the situation and dynamics on the ground there and vote tactically!

      • Skinny 1.4.1

        Interesting is Ken Rintoul who formed an independent party Focus NZ and got 1.661 4.8 is seeking to become the National candidate. He won’t get it so will he stand as an indie again? Apparently he packed a sad as a former Nat man so formed Focus and now tries out for the Nat’s. Let’s hope is does the vote splitter thing again and pulls move votes off them. Colin Craig would do the same as Northland is full of bible bashers.

      • mickysavage 1.4.2

        Sabin’s vote went down because everyone knew he was a prick and Willow-Jean performed really well. I expect most of the green votes to flood Willow-Jean’s way and do not minimise the sympathetic female vote. This could be really interesting …

  2. saveNZ 2

    I’m pleased Winston is standing. I also do not think it is too late to do a deal with Labour. Be strategic Labour! Show you can actually unite and work with another party and give it the best shot to get one National MP out.

    This isn’t about photo op’s, this is about winning an MP off National. Standing down by supporting someone else and giving it the best shot to win, is better than losing by knowing you are going to lose anyway but still sticking with that losing strategy.

    What was it, get some guts?

    • Puckish Rogue 2.1

      If its Winston then its a good chance its not guts but dutch courage…

    • Clemgeopin 2.2

      “give it the best shot to get one National MP out”

      If National lose here won’t they STILL get a new list MP to reflect the general election party vote % basis?

      Who knows for sure?

    • Aaron 2.3

      It isn’t just about taking an MP off National, it’s about seriously curtailing their ability to govern. There’s a really good reason Key didn’t bring the Troops-to-Iraq issue into parliament and that is because hasn’t got MIke Sabin’s vote anymore. If the opposition get organised, he may never get it back.

      Quite frankly it’s the duty of the opposition to unite to ensure National loses a seat – of course that will require rising above petty politics and focusing on what is good for the country and there hasn’t been a lot of that lately so I’m not holding my breath.

      • lprent 2.3.1

        …of course that will require rising above petty politics and focusing on what is good for the country and there hasn’t been a lot of that lately so I’m not holding my breath.

        I’ve been noticing politics for about 40 years, active in it for 25, and I have never seen any sign of ‘rising above petty politics’ ever happening. I’ve read hundreds of books on political history in many countries and eras and never read about more than a few handfuls of evidence that it has ever really existed. Usually those who do actually rise above it are usually exiting politics.

        Are you a fool, or just naive. There is no politics that is not ‘petty’ or partisan when you start breaking it down. The people who try to “rise above” it are almost invariably playing a simple and cynical game of trying to force other politicians to cede advantages to them. Basically they are trying to get gormless fools (like you) to raise enough pressure to cause that to happen.

        Those that they use for this purpose are generally known as “suckers”

        • Sacha 2.3.1.1

          ‘Rising above’ does sound a lot like PG Tips.

        • aaron 2.3.1.2

          Iprent, why do you feel the need to be so offensive?

          And why has my insistence that people do the ‘right’ thing got under your skin so badly?

          It’s great you’ve got so much political experience and yes, I’m a no-name who’s just commenting on your blog but I hope I never get to the point where I’m resigned to the sort of behaviour we’re discussing because not only is it strategically foolish, it’s also very dysfunctional.

          I wouldn’t accept it from my kids, I wouldn’t accept it from my friends and while it’s obviously the norm in political circles I’m still going to accept it there either.

          Again, I’m not very important and my opinion probably counts for nothing but I’m still going to call it when I see it and right now I see a lot of dysfunctional behaviour on the left.

          I suggest you get away from the keyboard for a while and meet some people who are working for social/environmental change out in the community – coming in contact with some genuinely decent people might restore your faith in humanity a bit

          • One Anonymous Bloke 2.3.1.2.1

            Nah – emotional lessons stick. Bland, anodyne, soothing lessons, not so much.

            Naivety hobbles progress.

          • lprent 2.3.1.2.2

            a. I like being offensive when I answer a comment that I find offensive in some manner. I call it the reflective principle. When I answer PG, I am pompous. When I answer felix, I try to be cutting.. etc. Generally I find people don’t like the tactics they use themselves, so when I want to get up someone’s nose… (I have no idea what my comment was in this case). But I will lecture you because that is what you are now doing…

            b. One of the features of blog sites is that the rules can be set differently, and they have to be. Think of it, there are no body cues at all. We allow very limited expression outside of language. So what you see in a ‘Normal” environment is not what you see inside a blog or any other kind of online media. It is a completely pointless argument that you made.

            c. I don’t spend much time with people who are “…working for social/environmental change out in the community…” these days. Mostly I work with a lot of engineers from all over the world, either locally or remotely. They have a tendency to be politely abrupt and very clear on what they are saying because if you don’t then something screws up and the job doesn’t get done. But I’ve also had decades of working in volunteer groups who are trying to get societal change. It is a frustrating experience of people not being clear about what they are trying to achieve, cuts years out of your life in meetings, and produces large meaningless documents. Frankly you probably need to get out amongst people working on getting things out the door a bit more, then it’d be easier reading your comments…..

            😈

            • aaron 2.3.1.2.2.1

              The thing that amazes me most about this thread is what set it off – the suggestion that if the opposition was genuinely focused on the needs of the country they’d do the sensible thing and give Winston a free run up North. Hardly unreasonable I would have though

              Anyway, congratulations on finding lots of good justifications for being offensive, you’re a lucky guy.

      • mickysavage 2.3.2

        Peters is the king of petty politics. Absolutely no chance of things changing.

      • Clemgeopin 2.3.3

        How do you know or how can you or Winston or anyone guarantee that if Winston wins and the Nats lose their absolute majority, then Winston won’t go in support of or in coalition with National, considering that Winston is an ex Nat conservative and his policies are closer to that of National?

  3. Sans Cle 3

    Game on Winston! (keeping the psephologists happy).
    What a good sport he is, to split the the National vote in Northland.

  4. JanMeyer 4

    Interesting to see more positive posts and comments on TS about Winston Peters and New Zealand First. Put the boot in to the Greens but support the well known leftie Winston. I guess it makes sense as a possible pathway to power for Labour because he represents a conservative, disgruntled slice of “muddle New Zealand” which is scared shitless of the Greens and progressive policy generally.

    [lprent: The Standard isn’t exactly a monolithic editorial entity. The authors are all quite different, often extremely different, and they write about what they feel like writing about.

    In this case you are seeing a post by someone who is more orientated to the center than the far left and more interested in practical politics rather than ideological purity. If you go back to 2008/9, you will find a pile of posts from me where I was saying that NZ First will be back after they lost in the 2008 election. That is because I knew from a lot of canvassing work that the party had a lot of very solid support amongst voters.

    But why am I bothering to explain something that is written down for so long. Read the about

    Two week ban for violating the policy and ascribing some kind of direction and intelligence to a machine and/or an ulterior motive to the way the site operates. ]

  5. Puckish Rogue 5

    This is Winston so remember what happened last time he was in a position of power

    • Skinny 5.1

      Peters is standing more so to deal to Mike Sabin. Bad blood between the tribes, good on the old trooper. Of course John Key’s head will be in a spin as Winston will hog the limelight for weeks.

      Think I might book the Whangarei theatre and stage a Timeline of Lies forum. Yes I think I will.

      • Colonial Rawshark 5.1.1

        Ahhhh just brilliant…

      • Puckish Rogue 5.1.2

        “Victory here won’t change the government but it will change the way they think,” he said.

        A bob each way for Winston then

      • mary_a 5.1.3

        @ Skinny –

        I’m not a NZ First supporter, but I wish Winston well in the by-election. He’s a Northland boy, so there will be some interest and hopefully support for his candidacy. Hope he is able to break the Natsy hold up there.

        Your final line is so side splitting funny Skinny. Love it 🙂

        • Skinny 5.1.3.1

          Why thank Mary I don’t think my forum idea ( which by the way I am serious lol) is
          Going down too well with the resident Key cheerleaders who post on here. Oh well such is politics.

      • greywarshark 5.1.4

        Skinny
        You said something about Bad blood and John’s head and I got a vision of John the Baptist’s head on a platter. Guess Winston could be Salome, performing the Seven Veils dance and giving the old come-on to whom – I guess the Northland voters. What an image, make for a lovely tasteless political skit.

    • tracey 5.2

      he paved the way for major thawing in usa and nz relations by building a good rship with rice?

      • Puckish Rogue 5.2.1

        Well true but more that he played National off against Labour for the baubles of power…not that he wanted the baubles of power of course

        • Clemgeopin 5.2.1.1

          “more that he played National off against Labour for the baubles of power…not that he wanted the baubles of power of course’

          This is MMP! Negotiations are held and parties try to maximise their claim in policies and government positions

          Do you think that the Greens or the Maori Party or Dunne or the National’s panka-waala, the hapless clever dicky lone ACT member don’t?

          • Naturesong 5.2.1.1.1

            Yes, that may be true (no dispute here).

            However turning his back on the majority of his policies, or doing the opposite of what he campaigned on … that is a point of difference.
            It was a realpolitik decision I suspect he wont make the mistake of repeating.

            With the other parties, you know what you’re getting.

            I view his behaviour in the same way I view the 1984 labour govt. Though obviously, Peters didn’t case anywhere near the same level of damage to NZ that labour did.

            And, to give him credit, he has done some really good things for NZ. And did help to bring down National last tme they were in power.

            • Clemgeopin 5.2.1.1.1.1

              Yes, I agree about 1984 and the ACT traitors.

              Obviously as a minor party in the coalition, Winston could not be expected to get “most” of his policies. A few, is the norm.

              Not sure which ones were the “opposite” of what he promised?

              • The primary policy he campaigned on during that time was opposition of the sale of new zealand forestry to private interests.
                He did not get that as a concession, it should have been his bottom line.

                And once in govt, he gave confidance to a govt who enacted a policy agenda that was was opposed by Peters during the the election.

      • Sacha 5.2.2

        surprised she isn’t living here by now

    • Clemgeopin 5.3

      “This is Winston so remember what happened last time he was in a position of power”

      You mean,

      Increase in hospital care?
      Free medical care for Children?
      Better foreign policy around the world, including China and USA?
      Opposing the privatisation of Wellington International Airport?
      Exposing the corporate crooks in the wine box scandal?
      Opposition to asset sales?
      Helping to reduce/control immigration?
      Wanting an united New Zealand and welfare based on need?
      Increasing punishments for serious crime?
      Introduction of the Super Gold Card?
      Initiatives to improve the life of seniors?
      Public transport benefits like free off-peak travel for the elderly?
      Support for the Community Services Card?
      His campaign for compulsory superannuation schemes for all New Zealanders?

      Remember his was only a minor party under both National and Labour, but I think that in spite of relentless muckraking and opposition from haters and wreckers and our terrible media and commentators in the pockets of the rich/corporates, Winston achieved much more than one can expect as the leader of a smaller party, a Deputy Prime Minister, Treasurer and Foreign Minister.

      Give the man, the respect and mana he deserves.

      • Colonial Rawshark 5.3.1

        The Right Wingers are both afraid of Winston and pissed off at him. Interesting eh.

        • Chooky 5.3.1.1

          +100 ….and Winston has often been to the Left of the Labour Party …and much more effective in Opposition eg Spy Bill

          • Clemgeopin 5.3.1.1.1

            NZF has independent policies :

            Their policies come from the left, come from the right and come from the centre, some from the cusp and some from the outliers. That is the strength and weakness of NZF.

            And no one knows for sure, not even Winston, which side he will be on after a general election because he says he will wait for what the people have spoken in the ballot box and how the cards have fallen from the deck and oh, if the passage is hot, cold or wet.

            But this is not a general election. Rules are a little different.

      • greywarshark 5.3.2

        That’s quite a list Clem.. You have been keeping tabs on NZF good deeds that many have forgotten.

      • Chooky 5.3.3

        +100 Clem ….good facts to remember

      • mickysavage 5.3.4

        Clem

        Maybe give Helen and the fifth Labour Government the credit …

        • Clemgeopin 5.3.4.1

          Of course! It is true that Without Labour’s help, he couldn’t have achieved any of those, but it is also true that Winston was the initiator, catalyst or supporter of quite a few of those policies. Labour achieved much more than that during their wonderful nine years in Government.

          Winston worked very well with Helen and Cullen even though he was a vociferous strong opponent of them before the 2,008 the election.

          He worked well with Bolger too, but couldn’t stand or support the policies of the terrible slimy extremist Shipley after her traitorous coup against the more balanced Bolger.

          • phillip ure 5.3.4.1.1

            no clem/micky….

            ..peters screwed free healthcare for children from a tory govt…

            ..and that was the first reversal of the remorseless march of rogernomics/neo-liberalism…from both the tories and labour..(yoo-hoo..!..phil..!..some of us haven’t forgotten..)

            ..peters was the first to begin to turn that around..

            ..i remember it well..

            ..and will always give him brownie points for that..

      • HumPrac 5.3.5

        +100 rep for that post.

  6. fisiani 6

    Winston cannot even vote for himself.
    If he wins the number of Northland MP’s remains the same and we get an extra one from Invercargill.
    He just wants a platform for a few weeks to outshine Andrew Little. The Greens as always are just cowards.

    • Skinny 6.1

      Come up for the Show Fisiani it will be a cracker. I will lock Winston in on Monday. Looking at Saint Patrick’s day March 17. Think I will invite Little as he was/is Labours justice spokesperson. May as well invite Norman too. Can you ask if former National justice/police minister Judith Collins wants to rep her party? Get back to me asap.

      • tracey 6.1.1

        are the same people picking nationals candidate who gave us sabin? .a serial killer this time or alex swney?

        • Skinny 6.1.1.1

          They have picked the local farmer just haven’t gone public yet. It is the usual National swindle by the old boys network.

    • Billy Fish 6.2

      “Greens are just cowards”?
      Or maybe are strapped for resources and saving their money for other issues?

      • greywarshark 6.2.1

        billy fish
        They are no more cowards than you are for not using your real name. Or are you really Billy Fish? Why would you call groups cowards? What would you do in the circumstances. Bluster! I thought so.

    • Enough is Enough 6.3

      You’re an A Grade idiot. Stop parroting lines from Farrar about Invercargill and come up with some independent thought.

    • tracey 6.4

      the greens are cowards … like national in the maori seats you mean?

    • ghostwhowalksnz 6.5

      An extra MP for Invercargill ???

      For many years since about 1998, Southland voters elected an MP , who with his entire family lived in Wellington.

      His name was Double Dipton Bill English

    • tricledrown 6.6

      Fishy Not very good at maths that will mean the govt will have to rely on Peter Dunne.
      It will be a tightrope walk as opposed to a cake walk.
      Given their are up to 4 more current MP’s who have name supprression,most likely from the side of parliament who are the only ones who can afford lawyers of that cailibre.

  7. Sabine 7

    Who knows, maybe Winston Peters will raise a few issues that both National and Labour would rather not mention?

    And I would think that Winston has an equal chance of getting dis-illusioned National Voters as he could get Labour voters.

    just a small anecdote: Last election a friend of mine from bay o plenty voted for NZfirst. She was a standard Labour / Greens voter, but believed that both parties are not “forceful” enough in voicing their opinion on certain aspects. And to an extend she is right, No one in the MSM gave airtime to the Greens (unless they really really had to) and Labour is quite happy to vote as National does in regards to Drilling, TPPA and the likes.

    Maybe, just Maybe, Winston will force Labour to take a stand other then the status quo on these issues.

    • Pasupial 7.1

      Sabine

      I agree that Peters has a better chance of picking up dis-illusioned National Votes than any Labour candidate. But further, I think Peters is more likely to pick up Green voters than Labour is – given NZF’s stance against risky marine oil exploration, and Little’s recent snubbing of Turei.

      • tracey 7.1.1

        on what basis do you think green voters will cross to nzf? their environment policy? maori policy?

        • Sabine 7.1.1.1

          environmental policies would be my guess.
          Labour has made a few statemenst in regards to drilling in Northland that the Party would mirror the government position with maybe a few more regulations thrown in.
          Considering that Northlands one big industry is tourism, I can’t see any Party that promotes drilling to be that well received. There are not a lot of jobs for under educated, under trained and under skilled people in drilling and mining. there are a lot of these jobs in tourism (this i apply to the female part of the workforce – and I have been there and done that before and while I went to school).

          Any which way, I hope that Winston will force a showdown on these issues from National (who will dig in their heels, and Labour who will have to show if they have principles).

          The green get to lay back and eat popcorn. 🙂

        • Pasupial 7.1.1.2

          tracey

          Mainly due to dissatisfaction with Little’s recent appointment of Shearer for the Intelligence and Security Committee. I am in Dunedin, so perhaps the Greens I’ve recently talked to are not representative of those in Northland – but they are super pissed at Labour for the slighting of Turei.

          But NZF’s opposition to deep sea drilling is something that will appeal to Green voters – depending on how hard Peters goes with that (he’s also trying to win over exNats, so that’s a bit of a fine line).

          • tracey 7.1.1.2.1

            i agree that this green voter is pissed at labour but i wouldn’t vote nzf either

            • Karen 7.1.1.2.1.1

              No Green voter I know would ever vote NZFirst. Those pissed off with Labour over the Security and Intelligence committee more likely not to vote at all, which would guarantee a National win.

              • Colonial Rawshark

                To my mind, there’s no doubt that hundreds of thousands of former Labour voters stay at home on election day (and the voting weeks before it), nowadays.

              • Sabine

                well if that is true, than maybe the Green Voters should be asked to hold their nose and vote for the lesser evil. There are a lot of people in NZ that have to do this.

                Clearly it be better Winston and no drilling or at least not that easy access to drilling than No Winston and Drill Baby Drill. Priorities i guess, purity vs common sense.

              • lprent

                There aren’t that many Labour voters who would vote NZ First for electorate vote or party vote either. I know I wouldn’t have under any circumstances.

                Many of their policies are highly objectionable to me as a relatively strong social liberal

                • Pasupial

                  lprent

                  In the Wairarapa 2014 electorate; 17.7% of Labour Party voters cast their candidate vote for Ron Mark of NZF. I can’t say I would have done so myself in this instance, but splitting votes is not unheard of for Labour voters.

                  http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2014/elect-splitvote-58.html

                  Also; 11.8% of Rodney Labour Party voters candidate voted for Tracy Martin of NZF. Which, in this instance, was significantly greater than the 8.5% of NZF Party votes for the Labour electorate candidate.

                  http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2014/elect-splitvote-45.html

                • sabine

                  I do understand all the reasons on why one would cast a purity vote and most likely loose.

                  but in desperate times, and I would assume that especially for the poor and low income workers in NZ, for the landless and houseless classes in NZ the times are desperate and are not looking to go better any time.

                  In these times, voting for purity is a luxury only afforded to those that are not desperate, low income worker without land or house.

                  Maybe, just maybe all those that want to abstain from voting because the annointed is not running should consider their privilege.

                  Personally I believe both Winston and the Jean-Willow should be running. He will spice the whole lot up and maybe bring a bit of clarity and honesty into the game, and she gets to run another time getting her used to being in the public limelight for the future.

              • As a green party member, I would vote for NZF electorate candidate if they looked like turning over a National party MP.

                And, anyone else noticed that Peters hasn’t been slagging of the Greens in public for quite a while now?

                • Colonial Rawshark

                  Under those same conditions, as a Labour party member, I too would vote for a decent NZF electorate candidate.

              • Pasupial

                Karen

                In the Wairarapa 2014 electorate 17.45% of Green Party voters cast their candidate vote for Ron Mark of NZF. [Link in reply to lprent below – actually above; I’m taking a while getting used to this reply nesting scheme again]

                So it is not unknown for GP voters to candidate vote for NZF. It’s certainly a better option than staying at home on voting day. And also a way to send a message to Labour that the Green Party is not their bitch.

              • Sable

                Well I’m a Green voter and I’d vote for NZF. So so much for that theory.

              • Sable

                Well I’m a Green voter and I’d vote for NZF. So so much for that theory.

        • Naturesong 7.1.1.3

          In the last couple of years, Winston has increasingly looked more likely to engage in honest argument with the Greens than with the National party.

          It’s one of the things that did give me hope in the lead up to the last election, I knew NZF would at least be able to have an adult conversation after the election.
          And there are a few policy overlaps with asset sales, immigration, conservation etc. where middle ground could be achieved.

          Winston does not talk about it himself too much, but I suspect his views on poverty have become more nuanced over the years.
          But, never forget, New Zealand’s forestry is still overwhelmingly foreign owned (1996).

        • Chooky 7.1.1.4

          @ Tracey ….personally i know small rural business voters who switch between Green and NZF…Labour they do not vote for or Nactional

  8. Tarquin 8

    I think Winston is wasting his time, but at least things will be a bit more entertaining with him involved. I predict something totally outrageous by the middle of next week. He definitely knows how to steal the limelight.

    • mary_a 8.1

      @ Tarquin –

      Yes and Winston hogging the limelight will have Key spitting tacks! Stealing narcissistic Key’s thunder. Dear oh dear the sheer pleasure of the thought of that 🙂

  9. Dorothy 9

    Skinny
    ‘ A Timeline of Lies Forum’
    I have marked it on my calendar.
    Sadly are there any press worth inviting?

    • Skinny 9.1

      Yeah they will all be there. I had the last election forum with Peters, Norman and Parker filmed it screens on TV North every now and then. A punter come up to me the other week said I done a good job.

      I think I’ll be a bit selective as to which MSM shrills are invited into cover it. Gower and O’Brien are out, for a obvious conflict of interest Brook Sabin is out. Might get Campbell along someone we can trust not too twist things. Prime are pretty good and of course Lois Williams who lives locally and reports for RNZ. Wonder is Hide and Hooton can be trusted to sit on a panel and play a straight bat?? I will think about that one. Have not seen Hooton on here for a while, he may front up if I put dinner on a friends super yacht down the mariner.

      • Colonial Rawshark 9.1.1

        I reckon Hide can.

        • Skinny 9.1.1.1

          Yeah Hide has been very good lately CV . they are both a bit iffy about Peters and his piss and wind antics. However its about the deception not a Peters sideshow. I
          Guess Hagar has the very good creds to include, few signings of his book too, wouldn’t mind his scribe on my copy.

      • rawshark-yeshe 9.1.2

        skinny .. be careful with Prime now as it is run by TV3 News as of this week .. such fun it all sounds, may have to come !!

        Also, I think TV3 News have just said ACT is running a candidate .. more like a slow crawl, but you know what I mean !

        • Skinny 9.1.2.1

          Yeah Robin ‘Grief’ he stood in Whangarei last year. He was at the forum I hosted. Quite a clown he was too. He got as good as he gave. The highlight was him cursing and swearing in the foyer afterwards ” this is a Leftie love fess” everyone was in fits of laughter. He was fuming more so that Peters nailed him and ACT over the crock of the Epsom jackup with a scathing attack on stage, as only he can do.

      • Sacha 9.1.3

        Given how much detail you give away, why not use your real name here?

        • marty mars 9.1.3.1

          + 1 he is a leo dragon but it’s all a bit much imo 🙂

          • swordfish 9.1.3.1.1

            Yeah, I like Skinny, but he does tend towards the Big-Noter/Name-Dropper end of the spectrum at times. I used to wonder whether it was pure fantasy on his part but these days I’m assuming it’s all legit. If so, then, ultimately, you’d have to say it’s good to have something of an ‘insider’ here to spill the beans now and then.

            “He is a Leo Dragon……”
            As I am, myself ! But I’ve managed to (at least slightly) tone down the natural narcissism that comes with the territory.

            • marty mars 9.1.3.1.1.1

              I’m married to one 🙂

            • Skinny 9.1.3.1.1.2

              Thanks for the public psychology /analysis of my ‘sometimes’ egotistical rants.. Just a guy trying to wave the flag for the little guy. Believe in yourself and your abilities, no one else will brothers and sisters. A lot of people know my real name here and I would post under it, however the outfit I work for would love an opportunity to fire me so why make it easy.

              • swordfish

                Don’t get me wrong, Skinny, you’re a good bloke and I’d certainly miss it if you weren’t commenting here anymore. Some of your stuff makes for fascinating reading. Long may it continue. See my comment as a little tongue-in-cheek jibe from someone who recognises a fellow Leo-Dragon when he sees one.

            • desdemona 9.1.3.1.1.3

              Sorry to disillusion you, Swordfish, but your first assumptions about Skinny are correct – tending towards the big noter / fantasy that he’s in with the big guys. He’s just reading certain signs in the north – along with everyone else in the north – and making assumptions. I’m not saying he’s always wrong, I am saying just take him with a big grain of salt when it looks like its an overspill.

              • Skinny

                To think I came to your defence after a former LP candidate called you crazy. I guess he heard about your letter of complaint to Little. Yeah us Unionist sat around the table and chuckled at that one. I bet Little does too
                when I see him.

                Anyway my defence for you was [Deleted …]

                [Only just spotted this comment. My apologies for not deleting it earlier, Desdemona. Skinny, pull your head in.]

                • not cool skinnydip just sexist and offensive imo

                • Skinny

                  Here is a little background for you about Desdemona. She stalks me on here runs off to the Labour Party HQ complaining about comments I make (my freedom of speech) as if the LP own me. Nice one TRP wink*

                  [Your comment was edited for sexism. How Desdemona uses her freedom of speech inside the NZLP is not a matter for the Standard, but how you use yours here is. TRP]

  10. Clemgeopin 10

    “We shall fight on the beaches of Northland, we shall fight on the treaty grounds, we shall fight in the fields of Kaikohe and in the streets of Kaitaia, we shall fight in the hills of Kawakawa; we shall never surrender!’

    Nice! I hope the witty Winston the wise warrior will use this brilliant quote sometime somewhere in his campaign!

    He has now breathed electric life into this National’s wasteful by-election.

    Watch out, Northland! Here he comes wielding his gutsy taiaha to depart with the prized tiara!

  11. If Labour has the slightest bit of tactical nous, they will pull their candidate so that Peters wins, which he would in a two-horse race.

    • tracey 11.1

      if labour were going to do that they wouldnt have stood someone… as the greens have done. but you know this.

      • Nomination day is on Tuesday. There is nothing that forces Willow-Jean Prime to put in her nomination form. Even if she already has, she could withdraw it before then.

        • tracey 11.1.1.1

          they have announced her in the media.. they are idiots stuck in a fpp box.

          • Matthew Hooton 11.1.1.1.1

            So? There would be 24 hours of interest by the media. A week of crowing by National in parliament. And a month of bitching by some Labour activists on the blogs. But none of that would really matter. And if Winston won, National would have a black eye.

            • One Anonymous Bloke 11.1.1.1.1.1

              The electorate are quite capable of working out the intricacies of tactical voting.

              There’s just as much value for Labour in sticking to their principles and milking the media opportunities.

              It will be a black eye for National if they scrape home with a mere plurality in what has been a safe seat.

              • Murray Rawshark

                What principles are Labour sticking to? The principle of allowing NAct to keep governing?

                • One Anonymous Bloke

                  The principle of having a leg to stand on when criticising the Epsom rort.

                  • Colonial Rawshark

                    Criticising the Epsom rort?! And how’s that going for Labour???

                    National is seen as being smart and playing with the rules for advantage, while Labour is seen as running around complaining about it while insisting on using FPP era strategies.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      Seen by whom? You?

                    • Colonial Rawshark

                      Just saying how I see it mate. Labour has lost % party vote four elections in a row now.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      I wonder whether that’s because you (Labour Party members) don’t campaign hard enough for the electorate seats – the “party vote Labour” strategy leads to a disconnection between MPs and communities.

                      I’m not particularly invested in the idea, it just occurred to me. Idle speculation, probably.

                    • Chooky

                      +100 CR

                    • Colonial Rawshark

                      I wonder whether that’s because you (Labour Party members) don’t campaign hard enough for the electorate seats – the “party vote Labour” strategy leads to a disconnection between MPs and communities

                      It’s been well discussed on The Standard after each of the last two elections – Labour seems to have no problem pushing for the electorate seats. In fact, too keen to do so. Their party vote campaign is the one which has been seriously lacking.

            • Skinny 11.1.1.1.1.2

              Regardless win, lose or draw National ‘Teflon John’ is going to get a black eye over the Sabin scandal. Chipping away and exposing continual lying by Key is
              our goal, eventually voters get sick of being mislead.

            • rawshark-yeshe 11.1.1.1.1.3

              @ Matthew — So why is ACT standing ???

            • mickysavage 11.1.1.1.1.4

              Yeah but then Winston may be the next PM. I am pretty sure the country is not ready for that, or able to survive it.

              • Clemgeopin

                You mean that

                (1) Key will run away gutlessly to Hawaii like a coward and abdicate the throne to Winston, or,

                (2)Are you thinking that NZF and National will cunningly get into a coalition agreement after the by-election if Winny wins?

                I can envisage the second option with many National voters voting for Winston, ensuring his win, and Winston getting a prime office of bauble in coalition with National, but not as Prime Minister. That will be too high a prize that Key, English, Bennett and Joyce will not want to give up.

                But a coalition with National, yes, that possibility is quite high, as he would not want to work with the Greens.

              • Winston Peters for Speaker.

                That’d sort the bastards out.

            • Rodel 11.1.1.1.1.5

              Gee Thanks for your advice Mr Hooton sir. It’s really valued by us unintelligent lefties and I know in my heart it’s offered in our best interests. (sarc).
              ffs

          • greywarshark 11.1.1.1.2

            “they have announced her in the media.. they are idiots stuck in a fpp box.”
            Fatheads stuck in the slot you mean?
            edited

    • Skinny 11.2

      Yes a deal should be done for the list placement next time for Prime. Hooton my old China your ears must have been ringing. Interested in a cameo slot St Pats day be a big night out afterwards.

      • mickysavage 11.2.1

        Prime will get a good list placing through merit. What benefit is there for Winston winning? He would be the worst possible MP for the area imaginable. And I know about the argument about attacking National’s majority but all that would happen is that Dunne and the Maori Party will have greater power and slightly tempered business as usual will continue.

        • phillip ure 11.2.1.1

          @ m.s..

          ..how cd peters as the local mp be worse than the tories who have been there forever..

          ..(and not giving a fuck about the place because it’s a safe seat..

          ..and labour not giving a fuck about the place because it is a safe tory seat..)

          ..compared to them..

          ..peters wd be like a breath of fresh fucken air..

    • marty mars 11.3

      don’t think so – gnats would spin it as cowardness and double down because of keys warstuff

    • Sookie 11.4

      I agree with that Matthew Hooten guy, much as it pains me. I am sick to death of Labour and the Greens being stubborn and running in important seats they cannot win and splitting the vote. It’s not 1990 anymore, be bloody tactical fergodssakes.

    • Clemgeopin 11.5

      It is stupid to predict how the votes will go, especially at this very early stage.

      There are many factors involved :

      Die hard National voters,
      Disenchanted National voters,
      Tribal affiliations,
      Pro Winston voters,
      Anti-Winston voters,
      Loss of trust in Key,
      Die hard Key lovers,
      Leadership of Little,
      A reviving Labour,
      Environmental issues,
      National’s neglect of Northland,
      Low statistics in economic/social issues etc,

      Need to wait a couple of weeks to see the trends and sentiments.

    • Tiger Mountain 11.6

      turnout will be king, Labour can come through the middle if enough of their supporters stick and Winston siphons off enough of the rats and mice and disgruntled Nat votes

    • Naturesong 11.7

      Wouldn’t that be “gutless”?

      I’m glad you comment here, it always gives me a bit of a chuckle.

    • MrSmith 11.8

      I’d have to agree with Hooton.

      Labour can waffle on about how they will never do a deal, while National carry on a usual, you have to ask did backing ACT hurt National at the last election? Labours problem is they seem to be going after the moral high ground, and wasting a whole lot of there supporters cash in the process, but how about just playing by the rules and to the whistle Labour! As National do to their benefit.

      • Colonial Rawshark 11.8.1

        Thing is that Labour usually refuses to take the moral high ground on anything actually important. TPPA. Out of control security/surveillance state. There, it prefers to be “pragmatic”.

        My favourite example is ending child poverty. An additional $1B annual spend would end the vast majority of child poverty in NZ within 24 months.

        Instead we get all this bureaucratic running around on Ministries for Children and more research papers.

      • Clemgeopin 11.8.2

        “I’d have to agree with Hooton. Labour can waffle on about how they will never do a deal, while National carry on a usual, you have to ask did backing ACT hurt National at the last election? Labours problem is they seem to be going after the moral high ground, and wasting a whole lot of there supporters cash in the process, but how about just playing by the rules and to the whistle Labour! As National do to their benefit”

        Your crooked words are so transparent!

        Why should anyone second guess what the people want? It is an ELECTION! Let the voters decide. Not you, Hooton or his Nat/RW/corporate bosses on behalf of Labour!

        If you are so keen for Winston to win, why are you not asking the Nats to pull out their National candidate whose name they are yet to announce!

        • MrSmith 11.8.2.1

          Like I say second guessing hasn’t done National any harm, and here is a chance for Labour to say we can play as well, but they won’t will they because (to steal a line from NoRightTurn) they’re chickenshits and will be content to wait it out and hang onto there salaries.

          How’s this all going to end? Well I have a rough idea. Winston will steal the lime light, becoming more popular than ever, meanwhile the Labour candidate, what’s her/his name again? won’t get a mention. National will win and trumpet this as an endorsement and continue cocking their leg on Labour.

          • Clemgeopin 11.8.2.1.1

            ” the Labour candidate, what’s her/his name again?

            You idiot. If you don’t even know the name or gender and if you are just a being pretentious, bull shitting and bitchy, then you are just shit.

            Why don’t you ask National to withdraw, you nincompoop?

            You slimy dishonest RWNJobs have no business telling Labour what they should do to help Winston or the Nats.

            Do something useful like reading book, ‘The Dirty Politics’.

            • MrSmith 11.8.2.1.1.1

              Name calling now, that’ll learn me! Apart from that you have nothing to add then.

              And please, I’m a paid up member of the Green party, the party that had the sense to withdraw from the race from the start, unlike the stumbling, bumbling Labour party.

              • Clemgeopin

                Dear Mrs Smith.

                Hi Ma’am! No problem which party you support, other than Labour as you say, be it National, NZF or the Greens in your case as you say. That is your democratic right.

                I was annoyed by your sentence and over reacted. I apologise. Sorry for being abusive. That was wrong and uncalled for on my part.

                Peace!

                • Pasupial

                  Clemgeopin

                  What exactly is the point of “mistaking” Mr Smith’s gender? Because it reads like a sexist putdown – that he is as; sensitive (ie too feeble to endure robust debate), or irrational, as a woman (I can’t tell which was intended). Either way it sits oddly with your excessively profuse apology.

                  Mr Smith

                  Saying; “the Labour candidate, what’s her/his name again?”, really doesn’t help your case any. It just makes it look like you haven’t bothered to read any of the other comments on this thread. In which case, why would anyone waste their time reading yours?

                  • Clemgeopin

                    Whoops, I really read the name as Mrs Smith! I am sure you will not believe that, but it is true.

                    My apology was sincere but I do understand your point made in good faith.

                    • Pasupial

                      No – I believe that; it’s just too much of a non-sequiter to go straight from “insult” to apology otherwise.

                      I guess you’re not familiar with the Matrix films, then (I’m not a fan myself, but they have had a huge impact on hollywood films and wider culture; the popularization of bullet time for one). Mr Smith’s pic is of Hugo Weaving playing Agent Smith from those films.

                    • Clemgeopin

                      @Pasupial :
                      “I guess you’re not familiar with the Matrix films,”

                      I am familiar with the Matrix films. I tried watching one years ago and got bored in about 30 minutes. As was the case with the Star Wars and the Hobbit films! I guess ‘some’ (not all) unrealistic/imaginative films are not in my fancy!

                      I won’t forget Mr Smith, MrSmith or Mrs Smith in a hurry. That is for sure!

                      Here is a non sequitur just for you:

                  • MrSmith

                    If you don’t understand why I said “the Labour candidate, what’s her/his name again?” then I’m not even going to try to explain it.

                    And as far as Celmgopin’s name calling, it’s water of a ducks back. Whether the apology was sincere or not I will never know, but hats off to Celmgopin for making it.

  12. Chooky 12

    GO Winston !…for once I agree with Matthew Hooton, Labour should pull their neonate and ensure the old race horse wins…which he may do anyway without Labour’s support

  13. Karen 13

    Yeah sure, take advise from Matthew Hooton who spent most of the last few years promoting Shearer as the best option as Labour Party leader.

    • “advice” not “advise”

      • Skinny 13.1.1

        She can still stand just do a Key and get Little to tell supporters to vote for Peters. About time Labour got their head around MMP. Matty M will workout a game plan. And I’ll do my bit for the opposition coalition.

      • Once was Tim 13.1.2

        that’d be “advice not “advise” … “going forward”, as a matter of fact, akshully, to coin a phrase, so-to-speak would it Matty?
        Well I get learnings every day from the spin master foreskins of the ‘mainsrteam media’.
        Thanks for pointing that out – and please shove an apostrophe in Jamie-Lee Ross’ dimple next time you see him (not the one that’s attached to your nether regions)

      • Sacha 13.1.3

        See, he does speling too 🙂

      • Rodel 13.1.4

        No pedant MH- The correct spelling is b-u-l-l-s-h-i-t

    • Anne 13.2

      Hooton may well be right. Peters is likely to do well. He will take almost all of the disenchanted National vote. Bear in mind the story we’re not allowed to talk about is nevertheless well known throughout Northland. I hope Labour and Prime will seriously consider pulling out of the race. That could give Peters an even chance with the National candidate. He wouldn’t forget it.

      • One Anonymous Bloke 13.2.1

        He wouldn’t forget it. Do you think that means there’d be some sort of payday?

      • Karen 13.2.2

        Willow-Jean Prime got nearly 26,000 votes and NZF got less than 12% at the last election. Why on earth would Willow-Jean not stand in favour of someone leading a party with no show of winning? Winston isn’t nearly as popular in Northland as many here seem to think.

        I’m sure both the Nats and NZ First would love Labour to pull out, but there is no advantage for Labour whatsoever.

      • Clemgeopin 13.2.3

        “Bear in mind the story we’re not allowed to talk about”

        Which one we are not allowed to talk about?

        Ah, This one?

  14. Anne 14

    Hooton may well be right. Peters is likely to do well. He will take almost all of the disenchanted National vote. Bear in mind the story we’re not allowed to talk about is nevertheless well known throughout Northland. There will be 1 or 2 opinion polls during the course of the campaign and if they show Peters is indenting National’s majority by a significant amount, I hope Labour and Prime will seriously consider pulling out of the race.

    • Prime has until noon on Tuesday to decide whether or not her name will be on the ballot paper.

      • ghostwhowalksnz 14.1.1

        Would be contrary to their stated policy last election they dont do backroom deals like national and act did in Epsom to steer an electorate into another partys grasp.

        national could offer Goldsmith a list placing, but labour isnt so fortunate in having something to offer Prime.

        While national will keep the Northland parish pump well oiled in the next month.

        And their pseudo candidate Joyce has been extra busy

        • Matthew Hooton 14.1.1.1

          Truly John Key is lucky with his opponents.

          • Chooky 14.1.1.1.1

            unfortunately i have to agree with Hooton again…Labour is their bestest friend

          • Sacha 14.1.1.1.2

            Sure is. Imagine what a half-competent bunch could have done to end his first term, let alone the second.

          • phillip ure 14.1.1.1.3

            you don’t see the possibility of peters doing in northland what that sensible-sentencing clown did for nash in napier..?

            ..splitting the rightwing vote enough to let prime thru the middle..?

            ..is that possibility colouring yr opinions voiced here..by any chance..?

            ..as i am sure you wd prefer peters taking it from national..

            ..rather than labour..eh..?

            • phillip ure 14.1.1.1.3.1

              this was a reply to hooton @ 19.1.1..

              ..(the reply-function in this thread is seriously screwed up..)

            • Clemgeopin 14.1.1.1.3.2

              +1, Sherlock!

              • i don’t believe you…

                ..you’ve been sprung..eh..?

                ..so..in a scenario of the tories losing.

                ..who would you rather win..?

                ..peters..?..or prime..?

                ..(and i think we all know the answer to that one..eh..?..)

                • and plse explain..in political science terms..

                  ..the differences between this northland bye-election..

                  ..and the situation in napier..

                  ..where the sensible-sentencing clown..

                  ..did the same thing for nash..

                  ..’cos i can barely slide a playing-card between the two..

                • Skinny

                  Your on to Hooton Phil, snake oil would have been dripping from his folked tongue suggesting Prime stand aside.

                  Hooton knows the Tory farming community will vote for a baboon from the Auckland zoo if the Nat’s put one up as their candidate.

                  They would vote for Prime ahead of voting for Peters, like Hooton they resent Muldoon’s boy started his own party. It wasn’t so bad when he lied electioneering and joined the Tories going into coalition with them. But when he crossed to prop up Labour they have never forgiven him.

                  Hooton would love Peters getting thumped in a head to battle, and he would.

        • Brutus Iscariot 14.1.1.2

          It is absolutely NOT the same as what happened in Epsom – for the simple reason that it’s not Labour handing another party one of its safe electorates to improve electoral maths.

          Labour has no chance of winning in Northland on its own – it’s a blue seat. Winston has a shot though, but only if there’s no split left vote.

          Remember it’s a byelection, not a general election.

          The sensible thing would be to let Winston stand as the “opposition” candidate, and for Labour to sit this one out.

          • Jenny Kirk 14.1.1.2.1

            No Brutus I – the sensible thing would have been for Winston NOT to stand and to let the younger, smart, confident Labour candidate really “take it” to the Nats. Its Winston who could well be the “spoiler” in this by-election.

            • Skinny 14.1.1.2.1.1

              By Peters standing the only benefit is showing Key up for being a lying slippery prick. The Tories will come out in their droves now Peters is standing to vote for the local farmer.

              NZF and Labour will vote split amongst themselves. I fully expect the National candidate to increase their vote and Willow Jean to slightly increase hers by picking up Green votes.

        • phillip ure 14.1.1.3

          yes they can..they can promise her a place higher on the list in ’17..

          • Skinny 14.1.1.3.1

            Little has ruled out any deals, so he will put up a novice ( no desrespect to Willow Jean) against a heavy weight. The candidate forums will be very one sided when it comes to rhetoric. Last election Nationals snake oil salesman Joyce was too gutless too allow Bill English to go head to head with Norman, Peters and Parker, so frightened of Peters were Joyce and Key.

            Hearing the fear and shrilly panic in Joyce’s voice today backs up my sentiments.

            Don’t panic Winston is here to deliver a death blow to Key.

            • rawshark-yeshe 14.1.1.3.1.1

              yes, skinny, a death blow …. and do we know when the next court date is for the thing we pretend we don’t know anything about ? Murray Rawshark ? Anyone ?

              • Jenny Kirk

                Rawshark-yeshe – I think the court date has been and gone ……. and its all now “forgotten” !

                • rawshark-yeshe

                  no, no … name suppression was upheld for another 20 or 30 days and another court date was set … has not gone away, no matter how much Twinkletoes Key wishes it !

                  • Murray Rawshark

                    Not quite. Name suppression was overturned, but the defendant was given 4 weeks to appeal the decision. Unless he’s successful, the name comes out in March. The twelve charges of indecent assault with a maximum penalty of 10 years (hence not on someone over 12) are already in the public arena. I imagine a top NAct lawyer will be running the appeal against the withdrawal of name suppression.

                    SInce the unknown person plead not guilty, it will be a while before this gets in front of a jury.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      And the disputed facts hearing, only available under the sentencing act? How does that fit in to this case?

                    • rawshark-yeshe

                      thx Murray ..

                    • Murray Rawshark

                      OAB, I don’t know what happened to the disputed facts hearing. It was reported somewhere that the appearance last week would be for this. I can only assume it was either a false report, or that someone sought and obtained leave to change their plea.

                      If the appeal against suppression is unsuccessful, we’ll all know a lot more.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      Are you sure they aren’t two separate cases?

                    • Murray Rawshark

                      No, I’m not sure now. We can thank FJK’s love of open and transparent government for that.

                  • One Anonymous Bloke

                    If National applied pressure to get a guilty plea (thus avoiding a drawn out trial and all the attendant publicity), then yeah. Otherwise it’s down to the Criminal Procedure Act s.200-204.

                    • Pete George

                      “If National applied pressure to get a guilty plea…”

                      …it would be disgraceful.

                      National should have no involvement with anything to do with the trial, and trying to coerce a plea should be out of the question.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      “It would be disgraceful.”

                      That’s not how they’d spin it: they’d say they were simply offering support and advice to a colleague, mindful of the affect a trial might have on any alleged victims.

                      If you had thought of that first you’d be helping them instead of clutching your pearls.

                      I have a question: is your racism a consequence of low IQ or cynicism?

                    • Murray Rawshark

                      I think Nact’s first instinct would have been to feel out the police hierarchy, to see if there were any chance of getting the investigation stopped. After that, they would have pushed for a guilty plea and suppression. They are totally unethical.

                    • rawshark-yeshe

                      Well, colour me cynical, but appointing Sabin head of the Law and Order Select Committee meets those criteria …

              • Clemgeopin

                May be this one? Not sure.

                http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/66400646/prominent-new-zealander-in-court-on-indecent-assault-charges

                A prominent New Zealander has appeared in court facing 12 charges of indecent assault against two complainants.

                The man made his second appearance in a district court today to apply for continued name suppression.

                Judge Roy Wade denied the application and ruled the man’s name suppression would lapse in 20 working days – at 5pm on March 19 – unless an appeal was lodged in the High Court.

                Most other details of the case are suppressed to protect the identity of the victims.

                The man’s lawyer indicated an appeal would be lodged.

                Judge Wade also suppressed the contents of today’s hearing.

                The man pleaded not guilty and elected trial by jury.

                He was remanded on bail to a further appearance in April.

                • rawshark-yeshe

                  Thx Clem .. that’s the one. So that would be the High Court in Auckland, or is there High Court in Whangarei?

                  Murray Rawshark knows cos he was there last time .. let’s see what he says …

                  • Murray Rawshark

                    I was at the Whangarei District Court. I imagine that an appeal of a decision made by that court would be held in the Whangarei High Court.

                    • rawshark-yeshe

                      and thank you again .. I so appreciate your comments on this.

                    • Murray Rawshark

                      As a pakeha from Te Tai Tokerau, I’m disgusted by the way successive NAct MPs have been able to ignore the place just because so many redneck votes can be guaranteed. Sabin is the sort of thug garbage that ends up as the local MP when this carries on. Banks was another one. I want a better future for my home.

                    • KJT

                      Peters is the “dirty” politician?

                    • Murray Rawshark

                      What? This case has nothing to do with Winnie. [Deleted. Let’s not go there until the suppression’s lifted, please, Murray. TRP]

                    • rawshark-yeshe

                      The court cases are NOT ANYTHING TO DO WITH WINSTON PETERS… just for clarity as the deletion by mods leaves it a little ambiguous.

                      [And for further clarity, the suppression orders go further than just the name of the “prominent New Zealander”, they also suppress some of the details of the charges to protect the victim. So let’s not speculate, people, please.]

                • rawshark-yeshe

                  understand, thanks.

  15. Colonial Rawshark 15

    I hope Labour and Prime will seriously consider pulling out of the race.

    Unfortunately I can’t see any scenario where Labour would actually do that in order to give Winston a chance. It’s totally against the DNA of the NZLP.

    • Chooky 15.1

      lol…some genetic modification is required

      • Colonial Rawshark 15.1.1

        Now *that’s* funny.

        • mickysavage 15.1.1.1

          Guys Winston is not a leftie. He is a tribal conservative populist. Why should we even think about giving him support?

          • weka 15.1.1.1.1

            + 1000. And it’s not like Peters knows how to play well with others.

          • Jenny Kirk 15.1.1.1.2

            I agree with you Mickey S.
            Winston is born Tory, and conservative to the hilt – its interesting he’s entered the fray in the Northland by-election. He must think he can pick up on a lot of disenchanted Nat vote, perhaps all the retired people, but would he appeal to the farmers ? And would he appeal to those Maori who are on the general roll ? Some say he’s not that popular with some Maori in the north.
            Willow-Jean has the advantage of being younger, locally active, also Maori, and she is just as articulate – if not more so – as Winston is.
            I wouldn’t write her off yet.

            • mickysavage 15.1.1.1.2.1

              Yep Winston is the past, and a pretty dubious one at that. Willow Jean is the future. Funny that some are thinking Labour should make an accommodation with Winston when he has never made any accommodation for Labour (except possibly through ABC)

              • Anne

                Yep Winston is the past, and a pretty dubious one at that. Willow Jean is the future.

                Couldn’t agree more ms, but she’s not going to win. I want her to get a good list placing that will see her in parliament in 2017. In the meantime, it’s attack, attack, attack the NActs at every opportunity. Winston is not to be trusted for sure, but he’s the only one with a chance to topple the Nats in one of their strongholds. I predict a lot of Labour supporters will vote for him for that reason. That’s leaves Labour open to inevitable ridicule by both the govt. and of course the media if they come in at a distant third.

                • One Anonymous Bloke

                  And abandoning their much-vaunted electoral principles will expose them to what exactly?

                  • Colonial Rawshark

                    Not sure what sticking to old FPP strategies has gained for Labour in recent elections.

                  • Anne

                    Joe and Mary Bloggs don’t care about political principles. If they did this govt. would be long gone.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      So government and media ridicule is a problem unless I point out it’s a problem?

                      Pfft.

                • greywarshark

                  What does it matter that Winston has never made accommodation for Labour? That was then this is now. Is there traction in following a path that allows Winston good chance. What is in it for Labour? What is he likely to do in his term which would advantage/disadvantage Labour?

                  That is the approach I would expect Labour to be taking – keeping an eye for past behaviour which may recur, but looking at best advantage. This is the 21st century. It’s get sharp, or you don’t cut it.

              • @.. m.s..

                “..he has never made any accommodation for Labour..”

                ..u mean apart from ganging up on harawira with them..?

                ..apart from him telling his supporters to vote for the labour candidate..?

                ..u do have a very short/selective-memory..don’t u..?

              • Completely agree, micky. I find it quite amusing how many people assume that because Winston is *currently* anti-National this makes him an ally of the left.

                • Pete George

                  His only ally is a compliant media who give him disproportionate attention and publicity.

                  But a by-election may be different. He won’t so easily be able to pick and choose his battles amongst a lot of electoral noise. Being exposed in the spotlight for several weeks with a small number of others (who are all likely to be noticeably younger) could be challenging for him.

                  • Clemgeopin

                    “Being exposed in the spotlight for several weeks with a small number of others (who are all likely to be noticeably younger) could be challenging for him.”

                    Yeah? Then why don’t you stand as an ‘independent’ or as a candidate for some stupid outfit such as United Future and try to win?

                    • Pete George

                      The fact that I’m from the opposite end of the country and have had virtually nothing to do with Northland apart from a few visits for starters.

                      Why don’t you stand?

                    • Clemgeopin

                      “Why don’t you stand?’

                      Because I support Labour which already has an excellent candidate in Willow-Jean Prime.

                      Also, I asked you the question because you were belittling, based on his age, the very experienced Mr Winston Peters who is a very creditable great candidate and a brilliant politician deserving your respect. So, cut the crap and your dirty politics.

                    • Pete George

                      Peters doesn’t get any respect from me. He’s got a lot of experience for sure, but too much as a dirty politician. And he’s well past his prime. He’s little more than an ego seeking attention.

                      What do you think he’s trying to prove by standing in the by-election? That he can get as many votes as Prime?

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      Clem: Then why don’t you stand as an ‘independent’ or as a candidate for some stupid outfit such as United Future.

                      Racist George: The fact that I’m from the opposite end of the country…

                      😆

                      That isn’t how you spell ‘unelectable’, Racist George.

                  • mac1

                    What’s do you mean by “noticeably younger could be challenging for him?”

                    Experience, wisdom, charm, wit, gravitas- these still count for something, PG.

                    And he has the ‘big hairdo” and looks, too.

                    • Clemgeopin

                      And I reckon if Winston were to fight PG in a ‘fight for life’, I will put my money on Winston.

                    • lol that would be funny – maybe they could have a wrapper battle – yo yo pete pete you incomplete, you more boring than a beige sheet…

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      King Winston meets the Beige Knight: “Come back, I’ll bite your ankles!”

                    • Clemgeopin []

                      Winston is a very smart, well known, wise warrior
                      of immense political abilities.

                      P George is a smart-arse, obscure, dull, armchair warrior
                      of inane ‘dirty politics’ abilities.

          • Skinny 15.1.1.1.3

            Mickey with respect we know exactly what Peters stands for, himself. The focus is undermining Key and his Tory party. I have learnt to use politicians for what you can get, the same way they use you. I am not interested in the bit players and look to give a equal platform to Little as well as a Green leadership. If your going to form a Government it will be a coalition arrangement. The sooner the opposition stop their vealous cannibalistic behavior the better.

            • Colonial Rawshark 15.1.1.1.3.1

              Labour activists are raised on the idea that it is the natural leading party of the Opposition and that all other parties are no more than bannermen in support.

              • Skinny

                +1 which is fucking ridiculous when you look at their woeful bench of has been troughers. I blame Goff for not culling Cosgrove and others for the good of the party. Fuck me Key could have won the last election ridiculing this fact alone and probably is saving it for 2017.

                • Colonial Rawshark

                  NZ voters guessed it right last election that Labour couldn’t hold a government together. It couldn’t even hold itself together for 24 hours after an election loss.

                • mickysavage

                  Cosgrove’s future is difficult. Accepting a donation from one of the Vela brothers is not something that will endear him to the activists …

                  http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11407795

                  • greywarshark

                    That Nz Herald link on Micky Savage at 8.58pm refers to documents relating to donations that they seem to be offering to readers for observation. You log on with your name etc and then can download from the 900 documents they refer to. Sounds interesting.

                  • Skinny

                    Yes and Shane Jones and Talley’s. Who Jones repaid just prior to selling out to National, by highlighting the Countdown extortion allegations.

                    Yes and speaking of the Vela Croatian mafia brothers, Peters is tied up there too.

                    Politics is such a racket it is little wonder the public brand them all the same.

          • Colonial Rawshark 15.1.1.1.4

            Guys Winston is not a leftie. He is a tribal conservative populist. Why should we even think about giving him support?

            His policies are considerably to the left of National and less free market oriented than some aspects of Labour’s outlook.

            • Chooky 15.1.1.1.4.1

              certainly was to the Left of Labour’s Rogernomics!… …NZF is where a lot of Labour’s former voters have gone

            • Philip Ferguson 15.1.1.1.4.2

              I wouldn’t vote for him but the simple fact is that Peters has been left of Labour on economic policy for 30 years.

              I think he’ll do well. In some ways, Northland is more his natural constituency than Tauranga.

              Peters remains popular among working class Maori who have benefited very little from the Treaty settlements and the industry around the Treaty and among a wide swathe of pakeha, especially older working class and lower middle class ones.

              My (late) mother voted for Peters’ party after the collapse of the Alliance. There was no way she was going to go back to Labour. She didn’t care for his anti-Asian line but she voted for him because she thought he was a real social democrat, and in some ways he is, as annoying as that may be to some Labour people.

              Phil

              • Chooky

                +100 …Philip Ferguson

              • weka

                “She didn’t care for his anti-Asian line but she voted for him because she thought he was a real social democrat, and in some ways he is, as annoying as that may be to some Labour people.”

                And how did she feel when he betrayed his left wing voters and supported formation of a National govt?

                • Chooky

                  @ weka ….actually Winston gets on very well with Asians and Asian leaders ( who respect him for protecting New Zealand, as they do their own countries)….he is very aware that we have a small country here with a small population and he does not want our land and assets taken by a flood of overseas buyers from grossly overpopulated Asian countries and new immigrants at the expense of NZers’ housing, std of living and environment

                  ….as regards Winston going with Nactional….this has been thrashed out many times before on this site …but does not seem to have any effect on your anti- Winston arguments weka

                  ….as you well know from the Helen Clark documentary ….Helen Clark did not have the numbers ,even with Winstons’ support to form a government ( Jim Anderton and the Alliance were not giving Helen Clark the numbers required) ….Winston was faced with causing a new Election ( not popular and could backfire on him ) or going with Nactional and trying to get as many of his NZF policies in as possible…he did ….but the coalition government was very short lived because he refused to be party to a government intent on the selling off of more state assets..he pulled down the Nact govt ….and he has never been forgiven by right wingers for this !

                  Winston is his own man

                  • weka

                    not reading your full comment until it is more legible, but picking out the doco bit, I’ve watched the bit you refer to and it doesn’t support what you claim (I’ve commented on this in the past). Plus I’d like to see more than one source, given that it’s such an important issue.

          • KJT 15.1.1.1.5

            Just like most of Labour. Apart from the “populist” part.

            Democracy is an inconvenient obstacle for most of Labour, and all of National

            It never occurs to them that they are elected to “represent” not Manage!

      • Anne 15.1.2

        I’m gettin confused here. What are we talking about? Horse races? Winston’s a good race horse. I’m willing to put money on him… 😛

        • Chooky 15.1.2.1

          +100 Anne…yes i may bet on Winnie winning!…(recently i bet on the Indian cricketers beating the South Africans …and wished I had bet more money on the underdogs…but I have money to play with now so a bet on Winnie winning may be in order!)

        • Skinny 15.1.2.2

          Speaking of omens and horses put a few dollars on Sound Proposition in the NZ Derby tomorrow. The word is it is going to win and @ $14 it is a good bet. 🙂

  16. Kooky 16

    Byelections can throw up some funny results. Voting patterns and behaviour is different, especially when the byelection is high-profile (and people therefore think before voting and there is a reasonable turnout) because:

    1. Normally the balance of power is not at stake and the result is more “symbolic” than consequential in terms of the outcome for the country.
    2. Byelections are once-off events.

    When Muldoon quit due to ill health in 1992 the Alliance almost took Tamaki, a wealthy Auckland National stronghold.
    And when Bolger resigned in 1997/1998 ACT performed far better than 1996 general election results would have indicated.

    Watch this space.

    • mickysavage 16.1

      Yep anything is possible and nothing should be taken for granted.

    • Philip Ferguson 16.2

      Didn’t the Alliance also do really well in a by-election in King Country?

      Like Kooky says, people can vote quite differently in by-elections to general elections.

      I think Winston will do better than the Labour candidate.

      Phil

      • Clemgeopin 16.2.1

        “I think Winston will do better than the Labour candidate”

        If he gets them from Labour, that will not be helpful to him or Labour, because then National will come through.

        The first couple of votes will begin to tell the story. I wish there is a reliable poll every week until the election.

        For Labour, its caucus and support machine should descend there in large numbers to canvas the vote in.

      • lprent 16.2.2

        Did they win? People protest vote in by elections, but they seldom overturn the established pattern

  17. We just cannot rule out NZF in this bye election, Winston has heaps on Key so we can assume plenty will be said over the next few weeks.

    It is not likely he will win but who knows, this is not a re run of the General Election, it is a whole new ball game.
    Go Winston..

  18. Sacha 18

    Comment sequencing not working, @lprent
    See below. Ta

    [Comment restored for nesting purposes – MS]

  19. Chooky 19

    Winston is out to get Sabin…John Key and Nactional’s SHAME…exposure is the key…no more shonkey business

    http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2015/02/27/winston-to-run-in-northland/

    “Winston will start using Parliamentary privilege to let NZ know why Sabin had to stand down. The conservative folk of Northland will be very open to Winston’s style of demagoguery once Sabin’s issues have been made public”….

    Nacts ….BE VERY AFRAID …..WiNNIE IS COMING!

    • One Anonymous Bloke 19.1

      Martyn Bradbury, the only person in New Zealand whose predictive ability is less than Ken Ring’s. Surely serendipity has to happen sometime.

    • Clemgeopin 19.2

      “WiNNIE IS COMING!”

      Can he still, is the question.

      • Chooky 19.2.1

        sure he can, with a rose between his teeth and a cigar in one hand and a whiskey in the other …looks like he can…he is coming Northlands way …GO WINNIE!…watch out Nacts

      • Colonial Rawshark 19.2.2

        Many have under estimated Winston’s (political) potency in the past.

  20. Sanctuary 20

    The only possible reason Labour should pull out of the by-election would be clear polling evidence that if they did Winston Peters would win.

    Rob Salmond over at Polity decisively calls it for National no matter what, which indicates to me that Labour’s inside thinking thinks for whatever reason (presumably based on some sort of evidence) that pulling out would be to simply forgo an opportunity to campaign against the government.

    Rather than castigate Labour for not trying to facilitate a NZ First pipe-dream in a safe National seat, curse John Key’s luck that Mike Sabin was in such a safe National seat.

    • Anne 20.1

      (presumably based on some sort of evidence)

      Labour’s ‘evidence’ on quite a few things turned out to be based on false premises in recent years. I’m not 100% sure they have learnt all the lessons yet.

    • Jenny Kirk 20.2

      What evidence ?

    • One Anonymous Bloke 20.3

      It wasn’t luck: it’s a perfect expression of everything the National Party represents: sadism, fear, and respect for authority all wrapped up in one toxic enabling package.

    • swordfish 20.4

      Well, according to Bomber Bradbury, a private UMR poll suggests a 50/50 down-to-the-wire contest between Peters and the Nat candidate, if Labour pulls Prime.

      (UMR is Labour’s pollster)

      • Colonial Rawshark 20.4.1

        That polling was done specifically for Labour, was it not?

      • Sanctuary 20.4.2

        Unfortunately, Bomber was exposed as a complete fantasist at the last election.

      • Didn’t Bradbury also insist he’d seen polling which showed Mana were going to romp home in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti?

        • Shannon 20.4.3.1

          Mana’s popularity did fall off spectacularly towards the end of the election campaign in Ikaroa-Rawhiti, maybe it was true at the time.

        • Shannon 20.4.3.2

          Those of you who are writing off Winston need to do some revision of New Zealand’s by-election history.

          1975 Rangitikei by-election: Social credit victory
          1980 East Coast Bays by-election: Social Credit victory
          1992 Tamaki by-election: National pips Alliance by just 1300 votes in a former National Prime Minister’s seat
          1992 Tauranga by-election: Winston wins the biggest every majority in percentage terms in a general seat
          1994 Selwyn by-election: National hold off the Alliance by just 428 votes in a former National Minister of Finance’s seat
          1998 Taranaki-King Country by-election: ACT come within 1000 votes of victory

          Third party candidates with strong campaigns can succeed in by-elections.

          • Clemgeopin 20.4.3.2.1

            It will take a couple of weeks to see the trend and what is happening on the ground there and how the local VOTERS are thinking based on a few upcoming media polls. TV1 will have a poll result next Saturday or Sunday.

            I am GUESSING that it will be neck and neck between National and Winston, with a slim outside chance of sneaking in for Labour. But I have no idea of the dynamics of that electorate and I am probably completely wrong.

          • Matthew Hooton 20.4.3.2.2

            Exactly. The Selwyn one is most useful as a model I think.

    • Shannon 20.5

      Rob Salmond also predicted National would win an outright majority in 2011, I don’t understand why people take his word as gospel.

  21. ew..!..gower is back..!

    (whoar..!..this was placed at the end of the thread..

    ..the gremlins r going crazy..)

  22. Any left labour person who thinks hooton isn’t spinning against the left is seriously deluded – it is simple – if he says do it, don’t. How many times are you going to be fooled? FFS with Little gaining some narrative power and a great candidate up there why would you even consider giving conservative Peters a go. Get some fucking gumption and GO FOR IT – win/lose doesn’t matter – it is what the countrywide potential voters make of it that counts – you know the great middle that moves their vote. Wake up.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 22.1

      +1

    • sabine 22.2

      not every one wants Labour to pull out.

      Some of us just want Winston to run to get a bit of spirit in this whole two party system that everyone seems to promote.

      And Winston will most likely go where Labour will not. Why ? Because Winston is at the end of this career while the young Labour candidate is at the beginning of hers.

      so let Winston run and do his thing. and People will vote accordingly. This is always the best outcome a democracy has to offer.

  23. Upnorth 23

    here is a predication which people wont pick based on low voter turnout

    National 61%
    Labour 19%
    NZF 12%
    Other 8%

    Why Greens voters wont vote, National supporters by nature vote therefore Labour voters just wont get out and vote

    Poll turn out predication therefore 39%

  24. Atiawa 24

    Rolf Harris could stand for National and win.

  25. Observer (Tokoroa) 25

    @Sabine

    I enjoy your assessments.

    The problem with this blog is that it is mostly peopled by full-on Greens. They have nowhere near the % of votes that labour has, and that upsets them deeply. Prior to the last election a lot of the Green commentators on here were wishfully foreshadowing they would become the major party of the Left.

    I really feel that it would be more honest of this Blog to rename itself as the Green Blog – or some such.

    I very much agree with you Sabine that Labour should field Willow Jean Prime because she is a candidate of considerable merit. But she will not receive much endorsement on this Blog. Certainly not from such green friends as Mr Hooton.

    As Russell Norman affirmed, an alliance with National is attractive to the Greens – if not an actual preference.

    • swordfish 25.1

      “The problem with this blog is that it is mostly peopled by full-on Greens.”

      Certainly not my impression. I’d say the majority of both authors and commenters are Labour-aligned (albeit from different wings), with a relatively large minority from elsewhere on the Left – Green, Mana, non-aligned Left, one or two anarchists, the odd anarcho-syndicalist and unreconstructed Marxist-Leninist perhaps.

      “Prior to the last election a lot of the Green commentators on here were wishfully foreshadowing they would become the major party of the Left”.

      Care to link to any of these comments ? Once again, that’s certainly not my impression. In fact, this Greens-supplanting-Labour idea was very much the meme du jour of Farrar and his ilk before the election. Never heard any Greens boasting in this way.

      (Note: I’ve never Party-Voted Green, although I’m seriously considering doing so in 2017)

      • KJT 25.1.1

        No. There was only two of us “full on” Greens on TS, and one has left, unfortunately.

        I doesn’t think any of us cared which political party “wins” the election so long as we get more sensible human and environmentally friendly policies.

        You know the policies that most people want, when they are presented with policies clean of party labels.

    • lprent 25.2

      *sigh*

      Whatever persuasion you are, you will find that you think that this blog is more partial to some other persuasion. That is what happens when you run across a broad scale blog.

      Generally most here feel sympathetic towards workers and unions more than they do for rentiers. They tend to dislike national as the party of rentiers, and despise Act as the parasite party

      Me? I think that everyone is kind of nuts apart from me. Basically if you can’t program millions of lines of code in decade, read a few thousand lines of history in a weekend, win at Civ5 on high, and still have time to moderate a political blog then I tend to wonder if you have an ability to tie your shoelaces.

      • Lanthanide 25.2.1

        Civ5?

        Have you tried Beyond Earth? I’d probably recommend against buying it until it’s much cheaper; it’s kind of a half-finished game. I played it pretty obsessively for 2 weekends and haven’t touched it since. Really nice music, I guess.

        • It’s excellent if you’ve got nostalgia for Alpha Centauri/Alien Crossfire but want up-to-date graphics.

          • Pasupial 25.2.1.1.1

            I haven’t had time to sink into computer gaming (or even much online commenting) these past few months. But one game that I’ve been getting into of late is the short and challenging; This War Of Mine.

            It is a rare style of; war simulation/ 2D survival crafter, in which you play from the perspective of a group of civilians trapped in a beseiged city. It is set in a fictional east European city by devs who have experienced the Yugoslav wars. Certainly helps in empathizing with those in the Ukraine (and Syria too – but there’s less likelihood of snow there).

            Plus; after a few hours of simulated scrabbling through the ruins in search of a can of cat food, or some broken wood to cook your rat meat, returning to 2015 NZ seems a relief in comparison. There’s not many things you can say that about these days!

        • Clemgeopin 25.2.1.2

          Is it better than playing chess and winning against very strong opponents?

      • KJT 25.2.2

        Personally, I think if you cannot build a boat, house and car, grow food and/or transport/process it and nurture people (Or teach others how to do it) then you are are in grave danger of being replaced by machines in the near future.. 🙂

        Whether you can tie your shoe laces, or not!

        When specifying what I want a computer system to do, I have often thought it would be more efficient to talk directly to the machine.

        And Computer games are as boring as playing golf..

        • lprent 25.2.2.1

          🙂 Each to their own …. I can do the car, house easily enough. But I probably wouldn’t like my home built boat.

          As for the computers. Try and apple if you want to be mothered and prevented from doing anything much. Try windows if you want to be frustrated.

          Modern Linux and android aren’t too bad.

    • (heh..!..)

      ..observor is tokoroas’ token rightie..

      ..’tis a lonely path he walks…

    • Sabine 25.4

      I still have no idea who this Hooton guy is, but then generally I am bored to death with NZ Stenographers of all shades of beige or grey…

      I have voted for the Greens in Germany (national and european elections), I have also voted for the Social Democrats again in national and european elections, and I have voted for both parties here in NZ.

      I would have enjoyed Jeanette Fitzsimmons as PM if the country would have had any sense. Could you imagine where we would be today if that awesome Lady had won!
      OMGosh, we would not discuss joining the great iraqi fuckup, we would not discuss having light rail in akl vs more motorways, we would be able to swim in a few rivers and the central plateau would be an active wind/solar farm.

      alas we voted for the banker in chief, dear leader the ugly beast.

      As for Northland, I do believe that Winston despite his ego and narcissism does love his country and would not go full throttle with National..he would be the bedpartner who will have all the pillows, and all the blankets. – and lets remember that the Greens have worked with National (the awesome cycle way somewhere that is only used by people that actually have holdidays and holdiday pay! – and on the insulation for housing – that was only given to people that actually owned a house! ). So why all the chest beating that Winston might work with National? I don’t know.
      As for Jean Willow, to be honestly I know absolutely nothing of her, have never heard of her, and don’t know what she has achieved so far. I guess it is a bit the Jacintha Ardern dilemma, nice looking and well spoken, educated…but nothing really to show just yet. Two good women at the beginning of their careers.

      at the end of the day, hopefully our side will win – and with our side I mean the common sense side, and either Winston or Jean Willow will bring us this little battle.

      I don’t see the standard as a blog of any particular party, that is not what I am here for. I do enjoy the conversations, dislike the verbal wankings of certain posters because the lead to nothing, and I care very little who people vote for.

  26. Observer (Tokoroa) 26

    Well Swordfish, it is difficult to be sure of a commentator’s true allegiance on a blog that does not require a person to make such a declaration.

    You think the dominant hue is Labour. I think it is Green.

    Perhaps, they keep each other somewhat honest.

  27. Observer (Tokoroa) 27

    @ Lprent

    The “Sigh*

    ….. is an absolutely brilliant piece of writing! Keep a copy, not just for the the great grand kids – but for the Best of Blogs.

    Just a little question …. you mention coding. But I thought programs self code now that computers are Artificially Intelligent. God, I have a lot to learn !

    anyway – much thanks for the piece.

  28. Sable 28

    Winston Peters doesn’t want his party tarnished by association with Labour and who can blame him. A good number of his supporters are disaffected Labour voters. Good luck Winston! Kick Labour and Nationals neo con arses.

  29. jenny kirk 29

    Hey Observer from Tokoroa – I tend to agree with you. And Willow-Jean is a candidate well worth supporting, even by Greens – she’s opposed to mining (and people tend to forget that it was David Parker who spoke on Labour’s behalf before 2014 election on mining – and I think there is a different mindset coming thru. Wait for it) .

  30. Pasupial 30

    Provided you can believe anything that Dunne said (a big proviso), this is another reason for left voters in Northland to consider backing Peters in the byelection:

    United Future leader Peter Dunne says he would look at revisiting his post-election concessions from the National Party if New Zealand First leader Winston Peters wins the Northland byelection…

    National would maintain a majority on confidence and supply with its coalition partners Act, United Future and the Maori Party.

    However, it would no longer be able to pass legislation with the help of Act alone, and would require one more vote from either of the other two parties.

    Mr Dunne pointed to Resource Management reforms as one area which he could have greater influence over if National lost a seat. He said the reforms, which he has expressed concerns about, would “take on quite a different hue” if National relied on his vote to pass.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11409251

    If NZF hadn’t chosen to join the Harawira beatup, their parliamentary position might even have been sufficient with a win in Northland to demand sole-coalition partner status with National. But that’s not the situation we have to deal with.

  31. veutoviper 31

    Well, National have now named their Northland candidate – and it is NOT Grant McCallum. It is Mark Osbourne.

    Here is the Herald article
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11409662

    But this Northern Advocate article provides more detail – eg that the voting went down to the wire to round four before he received the required 118 votes to beat out McCallum.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/northern-advocate/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503450&objectid=11409684

    • Clemgeopin 31.1

      Wonder if he is just another pro-wealthy, pro-corporate rich “upper Class” RW dude?

      Go Willow Jean Prime! …..[Show it to the boys!]
      Go Winston!….[Show they can’t keep a good man always down!]

      • veutoviper 31.1.1

        From the Northern Advocate article I linked to above

        Mr Osborne immediately took leave from his job as Far North District Council asset manager until the election result is known.

        He has previously managed Kaitaia’s Te Ahu Centre and co-own Doubtless Beauty with his wife Jodi. They live in Taipa and have two children.

    • veutoviper 31.2

      PS – no hard feelings, Skinny – remembering our conversation on the Latest Roy Morgan post, But Not a Cow Cocky, it seems; nor a foregone conclusion,

      Liked your recommendation for the NZ Derby, but did not get to put a bet on.

    • Pasupial 31.3

      VV

      The article says; “Voting had to go to a fourth round until he had an absolute majority of the 118 delegate votes”. Does that not mean that he required a minimum of 60 rather than all 118 votes?

      That photo though! So that’s what happens when a rugby bloke has a wife who gets a bulk discount on botox.

      The thing that surprised me was that Mana are putting forth a candidate. Given how Bradbury has been panting about the possibility of Labour leaving the field clear for Peters. Of course, MANA aren’t about to step a millimeter out of their way to oblige either; NZF, or Labour. And Porter appears nowhere on the 2014 IMP list (they didn’t even stand a candidate in Northland).

      Robin Grieve was #3 on the ACT list, so that represents a fair commitment from them – of course she may just be acting as second microphone for National in this byelection. I’m still waiting to see who the Conservatives put up; if it’s Craig himself, then that could really cut into the National candidate’s voting base.

      • veutoviper 31.3.1

        P – how the National Party’s voting works is a mystery to me because quite frankly I am not that interested.

        Re Mana putting up a candidate. I was also surprised by that but am too tired tonight to research this one further tonight.

        Re ACT’s candidate Robin Grieve – he is a he not a she with an over-the-top view on the world – again too tired tonight to expand further but will find the recent retweet of his views on the world tomorrow. Will not report until people have had breakfast/first caffeine fixes as not something to be faced on empty stomaches/drug fixes etc.

        Re Conservatives – been very quiet since the election, but understand that WO has posted on this today but did not want to spoil my day by checking THAT SITE. Perhaps tomorrow before shower and after morning fixes ….. Depends on the weather etc.

      • veutoviper 31.3.2

        Here are a few links re Robin Grieve, ACT – Read and laugh/groan

        First, a blog post by Ruminator re Grieve’s views on global warming, women and bibles in schools taken from Grieve’s Twitter feed

        http://ruminator.co.nz/3-tweets-from-act-candidate-for-northland-robin-grieve-that-tell-you-everything/

        Twitter responses to Ruminator’s post provide more humour and enlightenment

        and this one also –
        https://twitter.com/_fluffbag/status/567155528673943552

        And here is a link to Grieve’s own Twitter feed.

        https://twitter.com/RobinGrieve4ACT

        • Pasupial 31.3.2.1

          Vv

          Thanks for the clarification re Robin Grieve. He seems ideally placed to draw off National voters of the; blinkered bigot persuasion, even if the Conservatives don’t run.

          I particularly like the characterisation of ACT’s; “we only have insane loud people”, selection criteria:

          Are you White? Check
          Are you male? Check
          Are you batshit fucking insane? Check

          HIRED

          • veutoviper 31.3.2.1.1

            I am also hoping Grieve will draw off some Nat voters of the type you describe.

            Re the Conservatives, Matthew Hooten has an article up on the NBR in effect asking Where is Colin Craig? But the article is behind the paywall.

            I refuse to provide a link, but there is a post on the blubber website which quotes a lot of Hooten’s article which suggests a lot going on internally within the Conservatives but not of a constructive nature – eg infighting, departures etc. Blubber Boy also hints that there may be legal proceedings of some sort pending, but we often hear that from BB.

            While Craig indicated that he may run in Northland, this may not come to pass if what is in that article and post is correct – or at least contains some elements of the actual situation. Nominations close on Tuesday, so we don’t have long to wait to find out if the Conservatives put up a candidate and who that is.

          • Clemgeopin 31.3.2.1.2

            ” Are you White? Check
            Are you male? Check
            Are you batshit fucking insane? Check”

            Do you have plenty of moola? Check
            Will you be a sycophant in the caucus? Check
            Can you often kill your conscience and integrity? check

            HIRED!

  32. veutoviper 32

    OMG – I am definitely not going to bed until I can replace that image in my mind! Even JFK’s image would be better – then I can dream of unspeakable things I would like to happen …..

    • veutoviper 32.1

      Don’t know what happened here to my unnumbered [] comment- this was meant to be a response to Clemgeopin at 31.1.1.1

      • te reo putake 32.1.1

        I gather there have been issues with comments not nesting properly. I’m able to move your reply to Clemgeopin, but I may lose it in the process!

      • Clemgeopin 32.1.2

        Sorry, my fault, I think.

        I deleted the really scary pictures of Ozzy Osborne within a minute of posting the link because I thought it might not be fair on the new candidate. I was surprised that you were able to reply even before the edit/delete time was finished!

        Hope you are sleeping peacefully.

  33. Clemgeopin 33

    “By-elections can create their own dynamic. If momentum shifts and the voters start to run in one direction, it can start a stampede and anything can happen”

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/66965609/wily-peters-opens-up-a-range-of-possibilities

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • New digital service to make business easy
    A new digital platform aims to make it easier for small businesses to access services from multiple government agencies, leaving them more time to focus on their own priorities. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Minister for Small Business Stuart Nash ...
    13 hours ago
  • Million-dollar start to gun collection events
    Million-dollar start to gun collection events  Police Minister Stuart Nash says a solid start has been made to the gun buyback and amnesty after the first weekend of community collection events. “Gun owners will walk away with more than ...
    2 days ago
  • Praise after first firearms collection event
    Police Minister Stuart Nash has praised Police and gun owners after the first firearms collection event saw a busy turnout at Riccarton Racecourse in Christchurch. “Police officers and staff have put a tremendous effort into planning and logistics for the ...
    2 days ago
  • New Police constables deployed to regions
    Seventy-eight new Police constables are heading out to the regions following today’s graduation of a new recruit wing from the Royal New Zealand Police College. Police Minister Stuart Nash says the record high number of new Police officers being recruited, ...
    1 week ago