$2.49

Written By: - Date published: 7:23 pm, May 20th, 2013 - 98 comments
Categories: capitalism - Tags: ,

That’s what Mighty River stocks closed at today. Down on their issue price within ten days.

And there’s a strong chance that the Meridian float will sink the price of Mighty shares even further – they’re companies with similar profiles, are regulated in the same way, and are fighting over the same limited customer base so there’s a strong likelihood that the market will see them as similar enough shares that even more coming on the market just keep pushing that price point down. After all how many billions of dollars are there available for New Zealand electricity shares? And if the billions are there, where are they coming from?

The funny thing is that I think National know this. They’re not interested in actually making money out of this sale. They’re interested in shrinking government and transfering wealth.

There’s been a lot of big finance talk about the sale of these assets lately, and quite a bit of political horse-race stuff, but very little economic analysis. So my question is – does anyone really still believe this fiasco makes economic sense? Or is it just considered a fait accompli?

98 comments on “$2.49”

  1. Mary 1

    Great stuff. Long may they fall.

  2. Colonial Viper 2

    Less another $60 in sharebrokers commission if you want to sell your shares. OUCH

      • Colonial Viper 2.1.1

        Ah I stand corrected. You only lose 1c per share and $30 brokerage 🙂

        • David H 2.1.1.1

          3000 shares +brokerage would equal 60 bucks, so yes ouch!

          • Financially literate 2.1.1.1.1

            Bullshit. Read the links.

            • Colonial Viper 2.1.1.1.1.1

              hmmmm time you pull your (calculator) out…

              • Financially literate

                Bullshit. It does not need to cost people $60 for brokerage. 3,000 * 2.49 = 7,470 which is less than 10,000 (anz) or 15,000 (direct brokering). At Asb it is also less than 0.3% of 10,000 which is equal to $30. All easily done online with no joining fees.

                • RJL

                  The average sharetrade of MRP at the moment is $50k worth of shares. On the day of launch the average value of a trade was more like $100k.

                  That looks like the profile of big(ish) individuals who are selling (and probably institutions who are buying). Or maybe institutions selling partial holdings.

                  Mythical Mum and Dads with $8k worth of shares don’t seem to be trading at the moment. They are just losing the paper gains that they made last week.

                  • felix

                    The mums and dads can get fucked. They’re marketing dupes. They’ll watch the price stagnate for a while then sell offshore.

                    • SomeSuch

                      Charming.

                    • Rich

                      Yup, they got the biggest rooting since they became a mum and dad in the first place.

                      Doubt there’ll be many takers next time.

                    • SomeSuch

                      Settle down Rich. No ma and pa who preregistered has been ‘rooted’. Each has a margin of safety of up to 10c per share up to 5,000 (loyalty bonus) at the listing price of $2.50. Plenty of water to go under the bridge yet.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      So you have to rely on a government based top up gift in order to make money from this MRP deal? So much for the free market.

                    • SomeSuch

                      It’s hard to determine whether your stupidity is willful or instinctual. I guess that’s splitting hairs.

                    • RJL

                      Somesuch,

                      Any Mum and Dads who are selling right now are getting screwed. Largely by themselves. You are quite right that they should just sit tight. And the “loyalty bonus” just makes it even more sensible to just sit.

                      Around 100 small traders ($10k or less) started selling today, when the price nudged back to $2.51. That seems to fit the profile of Mums and Dads who panicked.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      The big institutions are just doing their thing of shaking out the weak hands and collecting a few more cheap shares for their big money boys.

                  • RJL

                    Although having said that in the last 20 minutes, or so, about 30 trades of only $5k have taken place. That would be Mums and Dads panicking and getting screwed.

                  • freedom

                    you do understand what a mean and a mode average are don’t you RJL?

                    $2.49

  3. BM 3

    Mighty river power is more about dividend than share price.

    • RedBaronCV 3.1

      Spare me BM – there is a linkage between dividend and share price less the nil prospect of a capital gain.

  4. Descendant Of Sssmith 4

    Wonder if Mr Gaynor will fess up to if he has dumped his shares as per his normal practise of pump and dump.

    Yep got all that short term profit to make.

    Wonder if IRD will tax those who have sold – obviously those that have sold weren’t investing.

    • Jared 4.1

      Care to back that statement up that Brian Gaynor and or Milford Asset Management pump and dump?

      • Colonial Viper 4.1.1

        Investors in his funds should be able to see how many MRP he has left.

        btw I think Gaynor can do a dump of MRP stocks; but his fund is not big enough to do a significant pump.

      • Descendant Of Sssmith 4.1.2

        I’m referring to the fact that he has been encouraging mum and dads to buy the shares thereby increasing demand and price while running a business that does not hold onto shares for the long term.

        Quote:
        Milford adopts a highly active approach to portfolio management in order to attempt to take advantage of changing market conditions and investment opportunities.

        So having encouraged people to buy, without to my knowledge ever prefacing his media comments with the information that he often sells when prices rise, rather than wait for dividends over the long term has he already sold any shares purchased?

        It just seems wrong to me.

        You might have some technical definition of pump and dump that sets a more than the colloquial description that I think of but the phrase seems to describe the notion of talking the price up and selling perfectly to me.

        I’m just really asking whether he did sell when the price went up and is there any conflict in telling others to buy in the way he did?

  5. andy (the other one) 5

    Institutional investors did not have to pay for shares until the Wednesday after the float (3 days of free money), they have secured their balance sheets at the expense of 80,000 stupid mum and dad first time investors.

    How you feeling now , Mum & Dad. You have been rolled by John Key, the NZX and Banksters Inc…

    Marketing won, we lost…

    • Lanthanide 5.1

      I don’t understand this comment. Various financial commentaries I’ve read said it would be/was the institutional investors, both in NZ and foreign, that would be buying up on the first day of listing, to meet their required investment thresholds, and mum & dads that were selling to them.

      • Tamati 5.1.1

        You’re correct. A few greedy speculators will always try to “stag” the IPO and cash in early when institutional investors try to increase their portfolio.

      • andy (the other one) 5.1.2

        Basically the shares were floated at lunch time on Friday and Institutional investors and other large volume buyers were not required to settle until the following Wednesday. The likes of Milford Asset Management, could sell and take profit with little or no risk (Arbitrage).

        Mum & Dad investors had the money taken weeks prior to listing, the game was rigged in favor of the big boys.

        Kiwisaver and Cullen Fund buyers are holding long term so the price fluctuation is not so important vs the dividend stream.

        • Lanthanide 5.1.2.1

          “Mum & Dad investors had the money taken weeks prior to listing, the game was rigged in favor of the big boys.”

          Ahh, right. I thought you were saying the big boys took advantage of the mum & dad investors directly, rather than just that they had an advantage.

      • RJL 5.1.3

        The average sharetrade was around $100k on the first day. So that implies it was not Mums and Dads that were selling.

        • freedom 5.1.3.1

          I guess when you include the million dollar plus trades (that mums and dads do every day) then yeah the average share trade value is quite high, but that would be the good old mean average so beloved by liars and spin doctors. Not the mode. Like when [people] say the average NZ income is $45-50K (mean) and not the $25-30K (mode) range that the vast majority of kiwis actually earn. It just sounds better doesn’t it? Who wants to be reminded most kiwis earn under 30K a year.

          I recall this TV3 article from the night which plainly stated that small holdings of only a few thousand shares were the most common range traded
          http://www.3news.co.nz/Govt-happy-with-Mighty-River-Power-share-rise/tabid/369/articleID/297324/Default.aspx

          • RJL 5.1.3.1.1

            Yes, there is a difference between mean and median, etc.

            However, with share trades (on NZX, at least) there are still only a small number of total trades involved. So the few large trades are in fact most of the market (there is not a vast number of tiny trades).

            For example, right now there have only been 379 trades today of MRP shares for a total of about $20M of shares. Most of the value is in trades >$50k, plus 100-200 or so trades for tiny amounts (<$10k, some for only $100s). The people making money are the large traders. The small traders are just getting screwed on brokerage fees.

            • freedom 5.1.3.1.1.1

              “The average share trade was around $100k on the first day. So that implies it was not Mums and Dads that were selling.”
              “there are still only a small number of total trades involved. So the few large trades are in fact most of the market”

              So using an admitted mean average artificially inflated the figure to back up your assertion that it was not mums and dads selling. So transparent, it is embarrassing. You do realise you have admitted this 100K figure was a result of misrepresentation and has little relationship to the reality of trades on the day. Trades which all other data shows were predominately small holdings. Otherwise called Mums and Dads.

              • RJL

                No. The majority of the trade today (and everyday since the MRP float) has been relatively large(ish) volume traders. Who are trading stock packages valued around $50k-$200k. I.e., unlikely to be Mums and Dads.

                There have also been a similar number of tiny volume traders active, who are potentially Mums and Dads. And admitedly, quite a lot of these minnows have been active today — at least since the price went back to $2.50. But these traders represent a tiny proportion of total trades — due to the small numbers involved. And they represent a tiny proportion of the 100,000 or so Mums and Dads that purportedly exist.

                If today’s MRP trade was mostly due to Mums and Dads you would need thousands of Mum and Dad scale traders selling their entire portfolios to make up today’s total volume.

                You can use the interwebs to look at the numbers yourself if you are interested.

                • freedom

                  “on the first day.”
                  you are one of these people who just cannot simply say, ‘i made a mistake, my bad’ and move on

                  “on the first day.” does not mean any other time but the first day and they were your words and the article i referenced was about the first day and the numbers you gave were about the first day

                  have a good day

              • alwyn

                You are clearly mistaken.
                I remember on the first day of trading hearing Russel Norman explaining what was going on.
                Somehow the genius that he is was able to look at a string of trades that had taken place, and bear in mind they only gave the volume and the price, and determine that all the trades were by small shareholders selling out to large overseas based investors. Clearly he is a genius, and you story must be wrong.
                Incidentally it is impossible to tell whather all trades are by small holdings. You can only tell at best one side of the trade. For example if I buy 100,000 shares it may show up as 20 trades at 5,000 each, if I was buying from people who had that to sell.
                If on the other hand I wanted to sell 100,000 shares it could show up as 20 trades, also at 5,000 each. You cannot distinguish either of those from 20 trades each by a person wanting to buy 5,000 from 20 other people wanting to sell 5,000

                • freedom

                  I am sure that might happen sometimes but I don’t believe stock holders regularly do twenty small trades on the same day, with the associated multiple fees, rather than the one or two larger trades

                  your explanation screams of desperate spin
                  but then again you are trying to defend stock trades so spin away alwyn, spin away

                  • alwyn

                    I am afraid that you don’t understand how the sharemarket works.
                    Suppose I want to buy 100,000 MRP shares. I ask my broker to do so.
                    Suppose also that there are 20 small shareholders who are willing to sell 5,000 shares.
                    For the moment ignore the fact that they have to be the ones willing to accept the lowest price and so on. This only determines who I end up buying from.
                    The above scenario would cause 20 transactions to be recorded of 5,000 shares each. Note that I did NOT initiate 20 trades. It was just that they were the size of parcels available.
                    Similarly if I wanted to buy 5,000 shares and I was willing to pay a higher price than anyone in the market, and there was a seller who had 100,000 for sale I would get them from him, even though in total he wanted to sell more. This would show up as a trade of 5,000. His remaining 95,000, if sold, would show up as 1 or more other trades.
                    I am not “desperately spinning” You just don’t understand how the stockmarket works. The whole point about the crap that RN was mouthing was that he hadn’t the faintest idea who was making the trades. He was just spouting bs.

                    • freedom

                      I get that, I do. Who was selling the shares is what was being discussed. It comes down to the most likely scenario and if people are selling small blocks on the first day they were more likely small stockholders, ie ‘mums and dads’. If it was a larger stockholder why would they bother selling piecemeal packets of their master of the universe folios.

                      p.s. alwyn, My spin comment was a bit out of line, apologies for that.

                    • alwyn

                      My point was that you can’t tell, from the material that Russel Norman was talking about, whether it was a small seller, in which case your supposition is correct or whether it was a small buyer wanting to round up his initial allocation and a large seller whose offering was being taken up by a number of small buyers. They could have received a decent lot but not enough to really satisfy them and they may have decided to drop out completely.
                      That is why there is the alternative interpretation that it was large sellers, and small buyers. I don’t know which it was, neither do you and neither does Russel Norman. That is why I think he was just spouting any bs that suited him.
                      I wasn’t trying to “spin” it but I think that RN certainly was.
                      Thank you for the last comment. It is very easy, particularly when one is annonymous to get a little extreme, such as my comment “You just don’t etc”. Consider that withdrawn.

                    • RJL

                      You are quite right that lots of small trades could mean either a small number of big sellers selling small packages or many smaller traders each selling small amounts.

                      However, the NZX tells you the volume of individual trades as they happen (possibly with a time lag depending on how you access the data). So, it is easy to identify that most of the value of MRP share trade is occuring in packages that are typically too big to be Mums and Dads.

                      A little trade can be either a big trader or a Mum and Dad, but big trades can only be made by big traders. With the proviso that “big” merely means in excess of $10k, which is well above the mythic Mum and Dad holding size.

  6. RedBaronCV 6

    I’m thinking it might be time to buy a few and give them to the Green’s and David Cunliffe’s electoral committe as a donation. Good use of money and would enliven the AGM.

  7. Suitably Clueless 7

    I am utterly illiterate economically when it comes to the share market, it may as well be sorcery. As far as this mixed ownership model goes, why would or should I buy shares to own a utility that is feasibly in my share as a taxpaying citizen? I sincerely hope that these ‘mum & dad’ investors hold on to their shares for as long as it takes to get them back. Leave the big boy games to the big boys.

    • Tamati 7.1

      Because any dividends and capital gains you receive from shares you own privately, are yours to spend as you wish.

      • Colonial Viper 7.1.1

        While depriving the government treasury of funds with which to provide services to NZers with, and increasing the nation’s dependence on foreign financiers and debt.

    • MrSmith 7.2

      There’s not a-lot to understand, basically it’s like a casino where Mum’s and Dad’s get shafted and the company owners and those in the know make off like thief’s, the dealers (share brokers) are also paid well.

  8. JK 8

    “They’re not interested in actually making money out of this sale. They’re interested in shrinking government and transfering wealth”.

    I reckon you’ve got it right, Irish Bill. This govt is only interested in transferring NZ wealth and assets to their overseas rich corporate mates. They don’t care about NZ – DonKey certainly doesn’t – he’s more interested in helping his overseas mates (who may/or may not have helped him into his current position !)

    • North 8.1

      Really does seem to be the way. Stuff of a novel.

    • felix 8.2

      “They’re not interested in actually making money out of this sale. They’re interested in shrinking government and transfering wealth”.

      Yep, and John Key said as much in parliament.

      When asked “Is there a bottom line below which he would not sell our profitable assets; and if so, what is that bottom line?”,

      he answered “The bottom line is that it has got to be the right thing for New Zealand, and it is.”

      There you have it: No financial bottom line; just an ideological one.

      • Colonial Viper 8.2.1

        Thank goodness there’s at least one party left which stays true to its political economic ideology. Just sucks they’re the Tories.

  9. Jimmie 9

    10 days? Well hopefully most of the investors take a slightly longer outlook than 10 days when they purchased the shares.

    Look back in 6 months or 1 years time and you will be able to decide if it was good buy or not – also dividend announcements in August.

    • Tamati 9.1

      +1

    • IrishBill 9.2

      As a right winger you will believe that the market prices dividend and future value into the cost of the share.

      And the market has decided these shares are worth less than they were ten days ago. In fact if you take the closing value on float day into account as the first clear market price they are worth considerably less than they wore ten days ago.

      That means the market has decided the future growth and dividend stream isn’t good enough to see the share increase. It’s close to a perfect market. Which means price is nearly perfectly correlated to value. And the price has fallen.

      • King Kong 9.2.1

        Irish makes an excellent point on how well Key and the National government have done in getting, what appears to be, a top of the market price for their shares in MRP.

        What am outstanding outcome for the country.

        • Lanthanide 9.2.1.1

          Minus the $100m+ cost of sale and the price per share they achieved is probably more like $2.30-40.

          Sorry.

      • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 9.2.2

        If MRP is worth less than it was before, the government is onto a winner, isn’t it? They have exchanged shares on the way down for cash. The State has won out over the capitalists. You should be celebrating that, IB.

  10. The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 10

    Irishbill’s onto a winner here. If the price drops, the public have been sold a pup. If it rises, the Nats have ripped the people off. He cannot lose.

    • Colonial Viper 10.1

      More like the people of NZ cannot win. Just the 1% who collect banksters fees and brokerage commissions.

    • burt 10.2

      Irish is supporting blind opposition – no need to think – just parrot Labour = good, National = bad.

      • Colonial Viper 10.2.1

        When did you suddenly become a fan of thinking and independent thought?

  11. Augustus 11

    And now the people of Christchurch are told that selling some of their assets they built up could be flogged of to pay for that nice Convention Centre they’ve been hanging out for since the earthquake. The people I saw on Campbell Live last night will be delighted to know that they’ve been heard by Key.

    • Lanthanide 11.1

      If the decision is ultimately up to the council, then they won’t sell the assets, because the people of CHCH won’t let them.

      CCC has the lowest debt out of any council in the country, precisely because they didn’t sell off their assets as was the vogue back in the 90’s.

      • tracey 11.1.1

        …and dont have the leaky home liability of Auckland, shitloads is being outlaid paying for that mess.

  12. Wayne (a different one) 12

    Congratulations Labour, you have been very successful in wiping considerable value of a New Zealand asset.

    I just can’t wait for the economic package the left are going to roll out for the election campaign. I’m sure it will make rivetting reading – not!

    • One Anonymous Knucklehead 12.1

      Have they damaged the dams? Or stopped the flow of wind and water?

      You really need to learn the difference between your wallet and the country.

    • Arfamo 12.2

      Congratulations Labour, you have been very successful in wiping considerable value of a New Zealand asset.

      How do you figure that? The value to everyone was greater before the Natsys decided to put it on the market. The Natsys devalued it.

    • tracey 12.3

      The market has done that. You forget some people just made a BIG profit in a few days. Those who bought at issue price, sold when it went high, pocketed the profit and will probably buy back in near the current price. They can do that because unlike the mums and dads (fictional) with $2000 worth of shares the $60 brokerage fee meant doing the same thing was of no benefit to them. Funny how it favoured the people from the PM’s former “profession”.

      Interestingly, no release from the Government as to how many oft he expressions of interest were fictional names…

  13. Mr Interest 13

    ENERGY SECURITY

    NZ Sells off renewable energy producing Assets and makes more roads (i.e. oil dependent)

    cf

    America invests heavily in developing an Energy Security Trust (go the yanks….)

    http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2013/03/15/what-you-need-know-about-energy-security-trust

    Quote:

    “America’s scientists are a national treasure. Every day, idea by idea, innovation by innovation, they are developing new technology that will help secure our energy future. If we want to keep moving forward, we need scientists to keep inventing and innovating, to keep unlocking new solutions and pushing new breakthroughs.

    In his 2013 State of the Union address, President Obama called on Congress to create an Energy Security Trust Fund, which would free American families and business from painful spikes in gas prices. The President’s plan builds on an idea that has bipartisan support from experts including retired admirals and generals and leading CEOs, and it focuses on one goal: shifting America’s cars and trucks off oil entirely.

    So how does it work? The Energy Security Trust will invest in research that will make future technologies cheaper and better – it will fund the advances that will allow us to run cars and trucks on electricity or homegrown fuels, and on the technology that will enable us to drive from coast-to-coast without a drop of oil.”

    So we as a small nation flog off our best energy producing assets…. an opportunity lost….. (we can leverage off the future technology from the above research). Oh no that’s right…. some investor will.

    The game is changings

  14. Wayne (a different one) 14

    And what of the 1 million plus people who have invested their ‘hard earned’ money in Kiwisaver – so you say to them – ‘tough’, your investment has just gone backwards.

    All courtesay of some mis-guided Labour loonies.

    And to you knucklehead – you just have no grasp economics, but then thats pretty typical of the left.

    In fact, you’re a bloody economic tragic, given you’re comments.

    • One Anonymous Knucklehead 14.1

      Coming from a right whinger that’s a compliment.

      Hysterical abuse where an argument belongs – “loonies” – is pretty typical of the right.

      I note that Contact Energy shares (after an initial gain) went down before they went up. Was that Labour’s fault too?

      PS: If the Green/Labour policy announcement put the fear into the maggots as you assert, I hope there’s more where that came from, because you people have spent thirty years too many pushing your incompetent tripe.

      Two words: Thomas Herndon.

    • Colonial Viper 14.2

      Wayne – this should teach people to put their hard earned money in the hands of grubby little financiers and profiteers.

    • Arfamo 14.3

      The situation wouldn’t even exist if National hadn’t created it. Stop crying.

    • RJL 14.4

      …who have invested their ‘hard earned’ money in Kiwisaver…

      That would be a decision made by the fund managers of the various Kiwisaver schemes.

      A large fund could have made a high risk investment for short-term gain, in which case they’ve probably been and gone and already dumped their stock when the prices was around $2.60 (or higher).

      Alternatively, a large fund could be investing for the long haul, for dividend pay-back (and possibly long-term stock price growth). In which case the stock price right now is largely irrelevant — and it is in fact better to be lower, so that the fund can buy more shares now.

      In either case, the fund managers would have done their numbers and managed their risk appropriately. If the fund managers are competent, there should not be any significant disasters.

    • tracey 14.5

      They didnt have to buy, remember they paid for their shares AFTER Labour and the Greens indicated they might change the legislation if elected. It was good they gave people a “heads up”.

      Did you think investing int he stock market was a bubble free of any influences Wayne? This grasp of economics you speak of Wayne, is it the economics that leads to banks being bailed out or stockmarkets crashing?

      Panicking about a short term fluctuation in stock prices exposes your economic ignorance Wayne.

  15. The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 15

    If the price is tanking, maybe we should sell the rest of the shares.

    • freedom 15.1

      OleOle, to almost any other commenter, I would suggest you forgot the sarc tag
      sadly you are being as straight as you know how
      and would like nothing more than the final traces of public ownership to be donated to the troughers

  16. Binders full of viper- women 16

    Holy shit.. that makes me down a whole 400 cents… gotta hurt a RWNJ/ asset thief.

  17. Mark Fletcher 17

    Probably pointless making this comment but here goes.
    Closed today at $2.51 above their issue price in one more day!
    Posting hysterical posts “about a short term fluctuation in stock prices exposes your economic ignorance” Tracey.

  18. Mark Fletcher 18

    You say “They’re interested in shrinking government” what could possibly be wrong with that?
    Or do you want the government to interfere in all aspects of your lives?

    • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 18.1

      Deep down, I think you know the answer to that, Mark.

    • IrishBill 18.2

      That’s a false binary. I, like most non-ideologues, want a mixed economy in which the government owns and runs essential services that are strategic, have high entry barriers, and tend toward monopoly or cartel behaviour. Electricity is very much in that basket.

      It seems to me you’re quite happy to have private interests interfering in your life but I’m more of a fan of economic sovereignty and democratic accountability.

      And Ole, for your own sake, please don’t immediately suck around the ankles of any new rightie that turns up spouting roarkian drivel – it’s undignified.

      • Saccharomyces 18.2.1

        “want a mixed economy in which the government owns and runs essential services that are strategic, have high entry barriers, and tend toward monopoly or cartel behaviour. Electricity is very much in that basket.”

        And what about the mixed ownership model in place for MRP contradicts this statement? Government still has majority shareholding, and retains control.

        • One Anonymous Knucklehead 18.2.1.1

          “…retains control…”

          Link to the last time this ignorant garbage was debunked.

          We need better wingnuts.

          • Saccharomyces 18.2.1.1.1

            Thanks for that!

            Shit, might as well sell them off completely then!

            • One Anonymous Knucklehead 18.2.1.1.1.1

              See IrishBill’s comment above. The one you claimed meant the govt. “retains control”. The key words are “essential” and “strategic”.

              “Essential” means you must have it.

              “Strategic” means it is part of a big plan.

              I hope that makes it easier for you to grasp.

        • Colonial Viper 18.2.1.2

          And what about the mixed ownership model in place for MRP contradicts this statement? Government still has majority shareholding, and retains control.

          Because its just shifted control and ownership of even more core economic infrastructure to the private sector.

          Guess it’ll just have to be shifted back over time.

        • prism 18.2.1.3

          IB 😀

      • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 18.2.2

        ..and I’m all about the dignity.

  19. SomeSuch 19

    “And if the billions are there, where are they coming from?”

    Collectively NZ households have $115b in deposits with registered banks. In total they collectively have $240b in financial assets, with a net $48b of financial wealth. On top of this financial wealth, NZers have around $442b in net housing equity. Household disposable income is approximately $132b p.a. In other words NZ households have billions that could be allocated to purchasing equities in M.O.M should the investments stack up against other alternative uses.

    http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/monfin/c18/download.html

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    Alone, Alone, All, All, Alone: To argue that the Prime Minister is the victim of her advisers’ failure to keep her informed may offer Jacinda some measure of exoneration – but only at the cost of casting her as a hopeless political ingénue. A star-dusted muppet, whose only purpose is to ...
    15 hours ago
  • Poor quality, poorly educated kiddie ‘Journalists’ spreading fake news
    In times of hysteria about the “World coming to an end” and “rising sea levels” so-called ‘Journalists’ who can barely spell words longer than four letters are having a ball! Though the majority of the Public have worked out that manmade climate change is nothing short of pseudo-science, and the ...
    An average kiwiBy admin@averagekiwi.com
    15 hours ago
  • Chris Trotter on the BFD
    I don't want to give pblicity to certain parts of the internet that are better left to fester in their own irrelevance (I know, a bit like this place) but the listing of Chris Trotter as a 'author' on Cameron Slater's spinoff website, the BFD requires some explanation.Now, I don't ...
    1 day ago
  • Sex is not a spectrum
    The text below is a Twitter thread by Heather Heying that explains the essence of sexual reproduction and it long evolutionary history. She is an evolutionary biologist and a “professor-in-exile” after she and her husband, Bret Weinstein, stood up to supporters of an enforced “Day of Absence” for white staff and teachers ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 day ago
  • Climate Change: Trees, aviation, and offsets
    With crunch time for new Zealand climate policy approaching, most of the New Zealand media have got on board with a global reporting effort to cover the issue. There's one strand of stories today about polling and what it shows about changing public attitudes to the crisis, but the strand ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • Pissing-Off The Israelis Is A High-Risk Strategy.
    Dangerous Foes: For those readers of Bowalley Road who feel disposed to dismiss any prospect of an Israeli destabilisation of New Zealand politics, the example of the United Kingdom repays close attention. Ever since the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the British Labour Party, the Israelis have sanctioned, funded and ...
    1 day ago
  • Something to go to in Wellington
    Make It 16, the youth-led campaign to lower New Zealand's voting age, is holding an official campaign launch at Parliament this Friday from 16:30. If you'd like to attend, you can register using EventBrite here. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • A founding member responds to Peace Action Wellington
    by Don Franks It was a lovely sunny Wellington afternoon with blue skies above  the beaches.  In Courtenay Place, political activists packed out a stuffy upstairs room for an important meeting. The assembled pacifists, anarchists, communists and independent young radicals of Peace Action Wellington felt the need for a mission ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 day ago
  • “Mistakes and errors”
    Current and former NZDF top brass are being publicly grilled this week by the hit and run inquiry over their public responses to allegations of civilian casualties. Previously, they've claimed there were no casualties, a position which led them to lie to Ministers and to the public. Now, they're saying ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • “Homosexuality is same-sex attraction and relationships, not heterosexuals with delusions of gende...
    by Rafael D. Quiles (gender-critical gay man from Puerto Rico) The writing on the wall is right in people’s faces and people just don’t see it or don’t want to. What could actually possess a heterosexual male to want to feminize himself and claim that he is a lesbian? Because ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 days ago
  • Trump: “Where’s my favourite dictator?”
    From the Wall Street Journal:Inside a room of the ornately decorated Hotel du Palais during last month’s Group of Seven summit in Biarritz, France, President Trump awaited a meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi. Mr. Trump looked over a gathering of American and Egyptian officials and called out in ...
    2 days ago
  • Magdalen Burns, 1983-2019, fighter for women’s liberation
    by the Redline blog collective At Redline we are very saddened to hear of the death of Magdalen Burns who passed away on the morning of Friday, September 13 (British time). Magdalen was a great fighter for the rights of women in general and lesbian women in particular, a defender ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    3 days ago
  • Parliament and the Executive
    The Brexit issue has certainly brought with it a series of apparently difficult constitutional issues, many of them concerning the respective roles of the executive and parliament. Most of them arise because of the unwillingness of MPs, despite their professions to the contrary, to be bound by a constitutional rarity ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    4 days ago
  • The Abigail Article; Martyn Bradbury’s Article, and My Response
    . . This blogpost is different to my usual format of reporting on issues… Since July 1011, I have blogged on a variety of political issues; near always political and/or environmental; mostly highly critical of the previous National Government. Other issues included Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands and repression of ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    4 days ago
  • Police will have to wear silly Buckingham Palace hats from now on, says Police Minister
    Those close to the Police Minister believe the initiative may be the result of Nash “seeing a great deal” on AliExpress. In a move that comes seemingly out of nowhere, Police Minister Stuart Nash announced this afternoon that he expects all frontline staff to don bearskin hats, famously worn by ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    4 days ago
  • A sensible crackdown
    The government has released its Arms Legislation Bill, containing the second tranche of changes to gun laws following the March 15 massacre. And it all looks quite sensible: a national gun register, higher penalties for illegal possession and dealing, tighter restrictions on arms dealers and shooting clubs, and a shorter ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • California bans private prisons
    Private prisons are a stain on humanity. Prison operators explicitly profit from human misery, then lobby for longer prisons terms so they can keep on profiting. And in the US, prison companies run not only local and state prisons, but also Donald Trump's immigration concentration camps. Faced with this moral ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Why PPPs are a bad idea
    When National was in power, they were very keen on Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) - basicly, using private companies to finance public infrastructure as a way of hiding debt from the public. They were keen on using them for everything - roads, schools, hospitals. But as the UK shows, that "service" ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • A Movement That No Longer Moves.
    Moving And Shaking: There was a time when people spoke matter-of-factly about the “labour movement” – a political phenomenon understood to embrace much more than the Labour Party. Included within the term’s definition was the whole trade union movement – many of whose members looked upon the Labour Party as ...
    5 days ago
  • NZ ‘left’ politically embracing extreme postmodernism
    by Philip Ferguson Much of the left, even people who formally identify as marxists, have collapsed politically in the face of postmodern gender theory of the sort pioneered by American philosopher Judith Butler. For Butler even biological sex is socially constructed. “If the immutable character of sex is contested, perhaps ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    5 days ago
  • The obvious question
    The media is reporting that the (alleged) Labour party sexual assaulter has resigned from their job at Parliament, which means hopefully he won't be turning up there making people feel unsafe in future. Good. But as with everything about this scandal, it just raises other questions. Most significantly: why the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • The moment I found out that you found out, I acted swiftly
    By Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern I am every bit as angry as you are. I am every bit as disappointed as you must be. The people with power, oversight and the ability to do something about these processes within the Labour Party should be ashamed. Whoever those people are, I ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    5 days ago
  • This is why people hate property developers
    Property developers think there is an "oversupply" of houses in Auckland:High turnover rates and falling prices may be a sign that there are too many new houses going in to some parts of Auckland, commentators say. [...] Property developer David Whitburn said there was a "bit of an oversupply" in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Australia to Pacific: “Fuck you, you can all drown”
    World leaders are meeting in New York in two weeks for the 2019 Climate Action Summit, where they are expected to announce new and more ambitious targets to stop the world from burning. But the Australian Prime Minister won't be there, despite being in the USA at the time:Scott Morrison ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Implausible ignorance
    Labour Party president Nigel Haworth resigned yesterday over the party's sexual assault scandal. But while that's good news, its unlikely to take away the stench of a coverup. Because according to Paula Bennett in Parliament yesterday, pretty much everyone in the Prime Minister's office was involved as well:I have been ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Labour’s Fatal Flaw.
     Two-Faced? Labour insiders' commitment to the neoliberal status quo puts them at odds with their party’s membership; its trade union affiliates; and a majority of Labour voters, but this only serves to strengthen the perception they have of themselves as a special elite. Among the lesser breeds, they’ll talk up a ...
    6 days ago
  • Ten reasons the Tories do NOT want an election
    There has been a lot of talk about Boris Johnson wanting an election, and he has blustered with great gusto about 'chicken' Jeremy Corbyn refusing one, but I think there are many reasons why he is secretly glad he has been refused the opportunity:The Tories are an utter rabble,tearing themselves ...
    6 days ago
  • Prorogation Illegal, rule Scottish judges
    Scottish appeal court judges have declared that Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament in the run-up to the October Brexit deadline is unlawful. The three judges, chaired by Lord Carloway, Scotland’s most senior judge, overturned an earlier ruling that the courts did not have the powers to interfere in the prime ...
    6 days ago
  • Let me explain what I meant by Everyday New Zealanders
    By Simon Bridges. The following is a press release from the office of Simon Bridges, leader of The National Party. Key ora, New Zealand. Happy Maori Language Week. Look, I’m writing to you today because I want to clear something up. There’s been a lot of kerfuffle around some things ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    6 days ago
  • Yes, the SIS is subject to the Public Records Act
    I understand there's some stuff going round about how the SIS "was removed from the list of public offices covered by the Public Records Act in 2017". The context of course being their records derived from US torture, which will be disposed of or sealed. The good news is that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • An evidence-based discussion of the Canadian fluoride/IQ study
    Dr. Christopher Labos and Jonathan Jarry discuss the recent Canadian fluoride/IQ research. They provide an expert analysis of the paper and its problems. Click on image to go to podcast. The critical debate about the recent ...
    6 days ago
  • Climate Change: Australia in denial
    Australia is burning down again, and meanwhile its natural disaster minister is denying climate change:Australia’s minister responsible for drought and natural disasters, David Littleproud, has said that he doesn’t “know if climate change is manmade”. Clarifying earlier comments that the question is “irrelevant” when considering the Coalition government’s response to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Philippines activist speaking on the Duterte tyranny
    Auckland Philippines Solidarity is excited to host Professor Judy Taguiwalo for a speaking tour of NZ in September. She is a well-known activist in the Philippines and was a political prisoner under the Marcos dictatorship. Professor Taguiwalo briefly served as a Cabinet member under President Duterte but was forced from ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    6 days ago
  • Disgust
    I have no special insights to offer on the Labour sexual assault coverup. All I have is disgust. Disgust that an organisation could fail its people so badly. Disgust that they punished the victims rather than the perpetrator. Disgust that its party hacks are apparently blaming the victims for demanding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Speak Up for Women calls out Greens’ censorship
    This open letter to the Green Party was penned after an opinion piece by Jill Abigail, a feminist and founding member of the party, was censored by the Greens’ leadership. (Redline has reprinted her article here).The intolerance of the Green Party leaders and their acceptance of the misogyny of gender ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    7 days ago
  • Member’s Day: End of Life Choice, part 3
    Today is a Member's day, and David Seymour's End of Life Choice Bill continues its slow crawl through its committee stage. They're spending the whole day on it today, though the first hour is likely to be spent on voting left over from last time. After that they'll move on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • Flight to Los Angeles turned back after passengers decide they don’t want to go anymore
    An ambitious plan to fly to Los Angeles petered out into a brief sight-seeing trip and a desire to return home and get some sleep before work tomorrow. Air New Zealand has confirmed a flight to Los Angeles last night was turned back about a quarter of the way into ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Indigenous Futures: defuturing and futuring – an analytical framework for policy development?
    There appears to be consensus – by omission – that the concept of indigenous futures should be accepted at face value. So I scavenged the internet to see if I could locate an academic descriptor or a framework around how we think about it as a concept, and whether it ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    1 week ago
  • Cadbury rumoured to be releasing the Pineapple Trump
    Here’s another novelty chocolate to shove in your gob, New Zealand Cadbury could be seeking to make itself great again with a rumoured new release: Pineapple Trumps, a spin on its classic chocolate-encased pineapple treat and do-it-yourself tooth remover. The global confectionery manufacturer and bumbling “before” character in an infomercial, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • The coming resource war.
    During my time in the Pentagon I had the privilege of sitting down with military leaders and defence and security officials from a variety of Latin American nations. Sometimes I was present as a subordinate assistant to a senior US defence department official, sometimes as part of a delegation that ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 week ago
  • Māori Language Week with The Civilian
    Kia ora, Aotearoa. It’s that magical time of year. Te Wiki o te Reo Māori. In English, the week that frightens talk radio. As you probably know by now, all your favourite media outlets are participating, some more successfully than others. Stuff has changed its name to Puna for the ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Will Horizons act on climate change?
    Local body elections are coming up next month. And it looks like all Palmerston North candidates for Horizons (the Manawatu-Whanganui Regional Council) want to take action on climate change:Climate change is set to be a key issue in Palmerston North for the next three years if those wanting to get ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • BORA reform is stalled
    Eighteen months ago, the government promised to strengthen the Bill of Rights Act, by explicitly affirming the power of the courts to issue declarations of inconsistency and requiring Parliament to formally respond to them. So how's that going? I was curious, so I asked for all advice about the proposal. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Corbyn and Brexit
    As the Brexit saga staggers on, the focus is naturally enough on the Prime Minister and his attempts to achieve Brexit “do or die”. But the role played by the Leader of the Opposition is of almost equal interest and complexity. The first problem for Jeremy Corbyn is that he ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • A ditch for him to die in
    Last week, English Prime Minister Boris Johnson boldly declared that he would rather die be dead in a ditch than delay Brexit. Unfortunately for him, the UK parliament accepted the challenge, and promptly dug one for him. The "rebellion bill" requires him to ask for and secure yet another temporary ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Warning! Warning! Danger Jacinda Ardern! Danger Marama Davidson! Warning!
    Lost In Political Space: The most important takeaway from this latest Labour sexual assault scandal, which (if I may paraphrase Nixon’s White House counsel’s, John Dean’s, infamous description of Watergate) is “growing like a cancer” on the premiership, is the Labour Party organisation’s extraordinary professional paralysis in the face of ...
    1 week ago
  • Union solidarity with Ihumatao land occupation
    by Daphna Whitmore Every Sunday for the past two months unionists from First Union, with supporters from other unions, have set out to the Ihumatao land protest, put up gazebos and gas barbeques, and cooked food for a few hundred locals and supporters who have come from across the country. ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: The wrong kind of trees?
    Newsroom today has an excellent, in-depth article on pine trees as carbon sinks. The TL;DR is that pine is really good at soaking up carbon, but people prefer far-less efficient native forests instead. Which is understandable, but there's two problems: firstly, we've pissed about so long on this problem that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • No freedom of speech in Turkey
    Canan Kaftancioglu is a Turkish politician and member of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). Like most modern politicians, she tweets, and uses the platform to criticise the Turkish government. She has criticised them over the death of a 14-year-old boy who was hit by a tear gas grenade during ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Speaker: Tadhg Stopford: Why I’m standing for the ADHB
    Hi there, just call me Tim.We face tough problems, and I’d like to help, because there are solutions.An Auckand District Health Board member has nominated me for as a candidate for the ADHB, because her MS-related pain and fatigue is reduced with hemp products from Rotorua.  Nothing else helped her. If I ...
    1 week ago
  • Good little vassals
    The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security has published their report on whether the SIS and GCSB had any complicity in American torture. And its damning. The pull quote is this:The Inquiry found both agencies, but to a much greater degree, the NZSIS, received many intelligence reports obtained from detainees who, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Who Shall We Turn To When God, And Uncle Sam, Cease To Defend New Zealand?
    Bewhiskered Cassandra? Professor Hugh White’s chilling suggestion, advanced to select collections of academic, military and diplomatic Kiwi experts over the course of the past week, is that the assumptions upon which Australia and New Zealand have built their foreign affairs and defence policies for practically their entire histories – are ...
    1 week ago
  • The Politics of Opposition
    For most of the time I was a British MP, my party was out of government – these were the Thatcher years, when it was hard for anyone else to get a look-in. As a front-bencher and shadow minister, I became familiar with the strategies required in a parliamentary democracy ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • More expert comments on the Canadian fluoride-IQ paper
    The Green et al (2019) fluoride/IQ is certainly controversial – as would be expected from its subject (see If at first you don’t succeed . . . statistical manipulation might help and Politics of science – making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear). Anti-fluoride campaigners have been actively promoting it ...
    1 week ago
  • The return to guerrilla war in Colombia
    by Gearóid Ó Loingsigh On August 29th a video in which veteran FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) commander Iván Márquez announced that they had taken up arms again was released. There was no delay in the reaction to it, from longtime Liberal Party figure and former president Uribe, for ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Air New Zealand identifies this enormous plot of unused land as possible second airport site
    Air New Zealand couldn’t believe its luck that this seemingly ideal piece of real estate had so far gone entirely unnoticed. Air New Zealand’s search for a site to build a second Auckland Airport may have made a breakthrough this afternoon, after employees scanning Google satellite imagery spotted a huge, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Redline on the Labour Party
    No-one on the anti-capitalist left in this country today puts forward a case that Labour is on the side of the working class.  There are certainly people who call themselves ‘socialist’ who do, but they are essentially liberals with vested interests in Labourism – often for career reasons. Nevertheless, there ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • New Fisk
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour’s failure
    When National was in government and fucking over the poor for the benefit of the rich, foodbanks were a growth industry. And now Labour is in charge, nothing has changed: A huge demand for emergency food parcels means the Auckland City Mission is struggling to prepare for the impending arrival ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Ardern attempts to vaccinate Clarke Gayford live on television to prove that it’s safe
    Gayford, pictured here on The Project, before things got wildly out of control. A bold public relations move by the Government to encourage parents to vaccinate their children has gone horribly wrong. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern appeared on tonight’s episode of Three’s The Project, where the plan was for her ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Has Mr. Whippy gone too far by parking on our front lawns?
    Mr. Whippy’s business model has driven it down a dark road of intimidation. Residents in major centres around the country are becoming disgruntled by the increasingly aggressive actions of purported ice cream company Mr. Whippy, who have taken to parking on people’s front lawns and doorsteps in a desperate attempt ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Cleaning up the water
    Today the government released its Action Plan for Healthy Waterways, aimed at cleaning up our lakes and rivers. Its actually quite good. There will be protection for wetlands, better standards for swimming spots, a requirement for continuous improvement, and better standards for wastewater and stormwater. But most importantly, there's a ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Fronting up
    Today I appeared before the Environment Committee to give an oral submission on the Zero Carbon Bill. Over 1,500 people have asked to appear in person, so they've divided into subcommittees and are off touring the country, giving people a five minute slot each. The other submitters were a mixed ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Politics of science – making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear
    Anti-fluoride activists have some wealthy backers – they are erecting billboards misrepresenting the Canadian study on many New Zealand cities – and local authorities are ordering their removal because of their scaremongering. Many New Zealanders ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Democracy – I Don’t Think So
    So, those who “know best” have again done their worst. While constantly claiming to be the guardians of democracy and the constitution, and respecters of the 2016 referendum result, diehard Remainers (who have never brought themselves to believe that their advice could have been rejected) have striven might and main ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    2 weeks ago
  • Government says it will now build just one really nice home
    Following publication of this article, the Ministry has requested it to be noted that this supplied image is not necessarily representative of what the final house will look like, and it “probably won’t be that nice.” As part of today’s long-anticipated reset of the Government’s flagship KiwiBuild policy, Housing Minister ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Imperialism and your cup of coffee
    Over the next week or two we will be running three synopses of parts of the opening chapter of John Smith’s Imperialism in the 21st Century (New York, Monthly Review Press, 2016).  The synopsis and commentary below is written by Phil Duncan. Marx began Capital not with a sweeping historical ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Still juking the stats
    The State Services Commission and Ombudsman have released another batch of OIA statistics, covering the last six months. Request volumes are up, and the core public service is generally handling them within the legal timeframe, though this may be because they've learned to extend rather than just ignore things. And ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Hard News: Time for a New Deal: 25 years on
    In 1994, I was editing an ambitious street mag called Planet, from a fabled office at at 309 Karangahape Road. The thirteenth issue of the magazine was published in the winter of that year and its cover embodied a particularly ambitious goal: the end of cannabis prohibition.I wanted to do ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Not impressed
    KiwiBuild was one of the Ardern government's core policies. The government would end the housing crisis and make housing affordable again by building 100,000 new homes. Of course, it didn't work out like that: targets weren't met, the houses they did build were in the wrong place, and the whole ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Solar beats coal
    As the climate crisis escalates, it is now obvious that we need to radically decarbonise our economy. The good news is that its looking easy and profitable for the energy sector. Wind is already cheaper than fossil fuels, and now solar is too:The levellised cost of solar PV has fallen ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago

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