About the One News Poll

Written By: - Date published: 9:06 pm, February 19th, 2024 - 43 comments
Categories: chris hipkins, labour, national, national/act government, polls, same old national - Tags:

The presentation of the latest One News poll suggested that it was all good for the right and bad for the left.

I guess I will not surprise you to say I thought the poll was actually pretty good for the Left.

Sure Chis Hipkins took a hit but this is MMP. Preferred leaders votes is incidental.

The stand out for me was that Act’s race baiting had not worked. And you have to start wondering about the Curia Taxpayer’s Union poll which saw a huge boost for Act. The recent Talbot Mills poll also saw Act going backward.

And National is not seeing a honeymoon. Back in 2009 its polling jumped up between 5 to 10 % depending on who was polling. The recent polls show no honeymoon bump.

This is fine. Time to get organised.

43 comments on “About the One News Poll ”

  1. Kat 1

    Yes and the reporting from the Herald of late almost appears as if they have had some sort of epiphany……

    Couple of examples from just today…..

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/tide-starts-to-turn-on-nicola-willis-over-kiwirails-cook-strait-mega-ferries-opinion/Y34AG3V6ZVFO7PPFS4KEMKHYM4/

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/comment-prime-minister-christopher-luxons-tough-love-welfare-move-is-part-theatre-and-a-lot-of-politics/4OFO4ZNSJNEWJET53WCAODIN7E/

    The One News poll reflects a divided electorate, evenly split with the nutters wagging the dog…….

    Time to act alright……

  2. Rodel 2

    ' And you have to start wondering about the Curia Taxpayer’s Union poll which saw a huge boost for Act. ' Start wondering? Curia is bullshit and averyone know it.

    Trust Farrar? Sure Can! (not)

    • weka 2.1

      pretty easy to say the same thing about the Roy Morgan which habitually over-estimates the left vote esp the Greens.

      • weka 2.1.1

        Belladonna has said similar here and pointed out the necessity of looking at polling trends.

        https://thestandard.org.nz/daily-review-19-02-2024/#comment-1989966

      • Muttonbird 2.1.2

        It's not really, because at least Roy Morgan is consistent in its 'habitual overestimation of the Greens', your baseless claim there.

        The reason you can't "say the same thing about Roy Morgan" is that polling company's owner and operator isn't also a high profile partisan blogger activist involved in the foundation of an astroturf fake funding mechanism in the form of the Taxdodger's Union.

        Some breathtaking, and/or deliberate, naivety on display here…

        • Robert Guyton 2.1.2.1

          Embedded misleader, Farrar.

          Every year, almost everyone forgets…

        • weka 2.1.2.2

          you appear to believe that polling discrepancies on the right must inherently be because of skullduggery. I've not seen any evidence for this, so I will assume it's theory.

          It's certainly possible that Farrar has convinced his staff to be fraudulent in the polling. It's also possible that the discrepancy is due to normal fluctuations in polling.

          What does the poll of polls say?

          • weka 2.1.2.2.1

            Farrar's company could be influencing results by the kinds of questions they ask. Again, some evidence would be nice. Or even an attempt at analysis rather than the lazy slurs you just threw out. And in case you think I am being some RW apologist, I do in fact care about evidence, and political culture in NZ. If you want to slur Curia, go ahead (but please be mindful of defamation issues and TS, which I will refer to lprent), but then you can't complain when the right do the same about left wing initiatives.

            I don’t have a high opinion of Farrar, but I do think the electorate deserves better than the a reactionarl left wing response.

            • Muttonbird 2.1.2.2.1.1

              Is it a lazy slur? It's an opinion based on Farrar being the only pollster in NZ to also be politically active, and heavily politically active, and a heavy political activist on many, many levels.

              To be honest I’m stunned RANZ allows it.

              It’s also an opinion based on the most recent data set being the comparison of 4 polls in a similar period, Farrar’s being the inverse of the other three. That is the evidence.

              That's my analysis and opinion or are we not allowed to do even that here if questioning the right?

              • weka

                If you ignore poll of polls, analysis of how polling works, and arguments that counter yours (like you just did) and instead do superficial reckons (the Curia polls must be intentionally biased because the company is owned by a known RW propagandist), and you can't acknowledge the flaws in your own position, and you react to counter arguments by making additional slurs of the person making them, then yes, lazy. Boring too I might add.

                There's nothing wrong with having an opinion here, just like there is nothing wrong with people poking at that opinion and pointing out its flaws.

          • Robert Guyton 2.1.2.2.2

            Not fraudulent – Farrar is too cunning for that.

            Gently massaging, fomenting mischief, he.

            • weka 2.1.2.2.2.1

              sure, that's sounds a reasonable assessment. I'd still like to see an analysis of how that is influencing polling and to what degree Curia is within the norms across the political spectrum. MB's spittle spraying is easy, less easy is actually looking at what polling is and what influences it.

              • Robert Guyton

                You're asking for a detailed analysis, weka.:

                "I'd still like to see an analysis of how that is influencing polling and to what degree"

                We are offering our opinion; considered opinion, based on long experience, I might add 🙂

                Be still 🙂
                Edit: “MB’s spittle spraying…”
                Whaaaa?

                • weka

                  Opinion is fine (and I see differences between yours and MB's), but also fine is wanting analysis beyond that.

                  • weka

                    basically, the idea that there is bias in Curia polling seems reasonable. That this is intentionally large, needs more evidence. As I said, I'd like to see how it sits within the norms across the political spectrum.

                    Obviously Farrar has quite the history in manipulating NZ politics. I don't have a high opinion of political polling generally. But in this conversation, I'm more annoyed by MB's first reply to me and his inability or unwillingness to form a coherent argument for his position beyond the low hanging fruit of Farrar/TPU and his ignoring the substance of counter arguments. It's a pattern on TS atm, and I'm sick of it.

                    • weka

                      another way of looking at this is if Curia are significantly biased, there needs to be an explanation of this using polling knowledge not just biased reckons (MB). Your position of gentle massaging/fomenting mischief seem much more likely to me.

                      But even the fact that the bias isn't quantified suggests we are just pushing around some hot air.

                    • Robert Guyton

                      Don't trust him as far as I could hurl him.

                    • weka []

                      same. And my points still work.

  3. Anne 3

    Maiki Sherman from TV1 sticking it to Hipkins for his poor personal showing. Shallow analysis imo. It was always going to happen simply because he is currently perceived as the loser.

    I doubt neither he nor Labour are concerned. Far better they keep their powder dry until the NACT/NZF honeymoon is over and evidence, including this poll, suggest it will be soon. In the meantime, no point Labour wasting time, money and energy because nobody is listening,

    https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/02/19/poll-preferred-pm-plunge-for-hipkins-te-pati-maori-gets-waitangi-lift/

    • tc 3.1

      Yes it was a poor performance as he allowed the opposition rhetoric to go unchallenged, made poor judgement calls on a wealth tax and hardly defended what policies he left having torched many others.

      It looked weak and that got played on to predictable outcomes at the polls.

      Sooner he's gone the better IMO he's damaged political goods, a new face is required if labour expect to be heard.

    • Tiger Mountain 3.2

      Maiki is bent in my opinion…will she follow Jessica Mutch McKay into the corporate spin world at some stage? Jess landed at ANZ Bank where SirKey hangs out in a senior role as Chair.

      The link is about a crafted anti Labour TVNZ piece on West Coast just before the election…
      https://nickrockel.substack.com/p/maikis-massive-serve

  4. Peter 4

    There was as election not long ago. So recently we’re still in the mythical ‘first 100 days’ zone.

    The polling nonsense is just that, nonsense. Political commentators justifying their existence.

  5. Darien Fenton 5

    It was not a good poll for the right. ACT has dropped ; National can barely hold its election night vote and NZ First is still Mr 6%. The preferred PM poll always bounces around depending who is PM. Luxon on 25% as a new PM is pretty dismal, given he is brand new and past trends show new PMs polling much higher.

    • Mike the Lefty 5.1

      I noticed on the Taxpayer's Union website that the pitiful 25% for Luxon as preferred PM (which incumbent PM ever gets that low?) was totally ignored while Hipkins was being lambasted for his poor showing.

    • James Simpson 5.2

      I would have expected a bounce for the left with all the protest action over the first 6 weeks of this year.

      Any changes are within the margins of error.

      My read of this is nothing has changed since the election.

      If there was an election today I think we would have a parliament that looks exactly like the one we have….which is a win for the racist right.

  6. thinker 6

    Is all a bit of a sideshow anyway.

    Reality hasn't had time to bite and Luxon hasn't had time to trip over the shoelaces he tied together.

    If "…a week is a long time in politics…" let's see how the polls are closer to the next election when there's less chance to take credit for stuff you haven't done yet.

    IMHO, the best poll so far is the Big Gay Out, last Sunday, when Luxon thought he was in for a good time but had to leave early.

  7. Bearded Git 7

    Spot on Micky. I was expecting "honeymoon" polls for this mob for the next year. In fact the Left has already made inroads.

    But rather than the obvious headline "no honeymoon for Luxon" the MSM has reported that the poll confirms the Coalition of Cuts winning election result. This includes the RadioNZ reporting.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018926729/1news-verian-poll-situation-stable-hipkins-plummets

    Luxon's constant whinging and lies ($200 billion infrastructure deficit) has got him into in trouble already.

    Hipkins is seen as a loser after the election result.

  8. Reality 8

    Chris Hipkins has been a bit invisible for a while and that could be a reasonable strategy as the voters will not be paying too much attention to him anyway. The voters are giving Luxon and his lot the benefit of the doubt I suspect. When actual policies are wheeled out, rather than just repealing everything Labour did, it may focus the minds of affected voters.

    • Anne 8.1

      Agree Reality. It is a sensible strategy to stay out of the limelight and let this lot trip over their shoe laces. As I said earlier, no-one is listening to them anyway.

      Another important angle: the Ardern/Hipkins government had six of the most bruising years of any government in this country. They needed time to recuperate mentally and physically from the numerous crisis' they had to manage. By the time the election rolled around they were exhausted and who wouldn't have been in the same circumstances.

  9. Ad 9

    It's still surprising that Labour or any other haven't built on the massive Maori protest unity over January and February.

    It's like choosing not to start a movement.

  10. mac1 10

    That 'preferred PM' vote. I saw it on TV and had to ask where the other 44% is? (25% + 15% + 6% + 4% + 4%+ 2%) With 40% of those responding holding their breath, 13% of whom voted National, Luxon has not engaged even his own party supporters. Hipkins is the same. 12% of Labour voters did not support him. By that reasoning, Luxon should have have got a C- 'could do better' report card along with Hipkins.

    There's no-one waiting in the wings. either.

    • Anne 10.1

      Yes. My immediate thoughts too. Fancy Ms Sherman ignoring that 44% as if it was irrelevant.

      7% of the party votes were 'don't knows.'

      44% of the preferred PM votes are missing, most presumably 'don't knows'.

      The second is hugely significant if it is correct.

  11. Vivie 11

    The relentless, negative campaign by the then Opposition against Labour, which clearly influenced voters, (along with the promise of unaffordable tax cuts, "getting tough on crime" and other poorly thought through policies), is continuing via MSM and apparently on social media. Last night Maiki Sherman was strident in her comments about Chris Hipkins and seemed gleeful about National's poll results.

    National's dishonest tactics are maintaining their support. As Gordon Campbell comments: "It is a political strategy as old as time. Scare the public with tales of disaster and stampede them into supporting your ideological agenda because they believe There Is No Alternative. Yet, if the NZ economy truly is as “fragile” as PM Christopher Luxon says it is… Then how come New Zealand has enjoyed a double AA+ credit rating from the international rating agencies for so long?"

    https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2402/S00028/on-national-spreading-panic-about-the-economy.htm?

  12. Robert Guyton 12

    Listen to this shocker of an interview from Tama Potaka on RNZ on the topic of National Parks, DoC etc.

    What a shocking obfuscator!!

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018926863/call-for-user-pays-charges-for-nz-s-national-parks-great-walks

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