You’ve marked two important points related to employment law, but left off all other external influences that affect youth employment, such as the global financial crisis and resulting recession (depression?).
This graph, such as it is, really doesn’t convey any meaningful information.
The right is claiming that abolishing youth rates increased youth unemployment on the spurious logic that youth unemployment has risen since then.
Equally, the right claims that fire at will is helping young people into work.
the graph shows that using the right’s logic, fire at will has increased youth unemployment. Thereby, elegantly showing what a crock of shit the right’s logic is.
Since when has an economic policy that has been introduced into an economy had overnight results? The poster seems to think the graph would have climbed immediately if the claims of Key and the “Right” were true.
On the same basis, it would be equivalent to a rise in the minimum wage immediately introducing inflation. Or changes to the tax system immediately resulting in massively lower/higher tax takes.
From his graph it appears the youth unemployment was 6 months after the policy took effect, which seems pretty reasonable…..
Lanthanide thinks is stupid, what’s stupid is we have a whole global class of people who brag how much their companies are destroying resources, using oil, and how much faster they can do it if they get a tax cut, and when they do lie, we send them to jail for fraud. Imagine that, someone lies that they just order the destruction of rain forests and they didn’t losing millions of investors their blood money. We don’t need not frigging pollution control, no tax rises!
Madoff is a hero!
Debt is ravaging the culture, the society, the children, all to keep debotrs from having to pay up.
But don’t you realise Zetetic? Without youth rates and fire at will, it would have been so much worse for young New Zealanders. Just like in the 90s, wages would have been so much lower than they were if it weren’t for the fact that collective bargaining was completely undermined.
These right wing policies soften all those ‘blows’ the world throws at us. Of course we still feel the blows … but you just have to believe, Zetetic, you and I are always being saved from an even worse fate by these compassionately rational policies.
[I don’t generally like sarcasm, but at the moment it just seems right.]
It should say “Youth rates abolished” – not “introduced”.
Lanth, I think Z’s intent is to refute the argument that the abolition of youth rates caused the spike in youth unemployment, rather than to imply that there is any causative relationship between the fire at will law and youth unemployment.
Sure, that is shown by the graph. But I still think it is misleading.
Also, Zet’s comment after the graph is “Fire at will was meant to help young people into work, wasn’t it?”, if he was trying to draw attention to abolition of youth rates not increasing unemployment, then some mention of that in the comment would have made it much clearer.
so, what your saying is that zets graph is garbage and a weak attempt to deflect attention away from the fact that youth employment rose after the abolishment of youth rates? cool thought so.
someone has to read between the rails your thinking is on
of which the timing coincided with the lagging effect of employment figure reporting as result of the GFC maybe? no, that can’t be right, doesn’t fit with the labour party manifesto and current play book issued with each new post on the standard. Blighty, when you really understand economics, come back and argue with me.
to save you having to use your brain, if price for a good goes up, demand for that good goes down, unless there are no readily substitutable goods. ie margarine for butter. so in this case, with ceterus parabis applying as even though i know you will be sitting down, drooling over the large button keyboard, i still don’t want to floor you, Adults for youths. as basic as it gets, but first principles are first for a reason
If in red it’s suposed to be Your Rates Abolished the graph isn’t a good look, because from that time on the graph gradually climbs after a short lag – it would likely not be an instant effect.
A significant climb starts well before the employment trial period was introduced – and it’s increase after that could as easily be linked to the financial crash which is a more likely cause.
The whole graph looks amazingly like it charts the beginning of the financial wobbles in early 2008 followed by the collywobbles.
Why don’t you just show a chart of numbers of people whose employment has been terminated within 90 days of employment, that’s actually relevant to the point you’re trying to make.
“Why don’t you just show a chart of numbers of people whose employment has been terminated within 90 days of employment, that’s actually relevant to the point you’re trying to make.”
Because the National government, in their infinitesimal wisdom, decided that no such official statistics needed to be recorded. Presumably because that might show that the law was being exploited or not actually working properly, so it’s safer to simply say it is working as you expected and not risk any statistics saying otherwise.
Sounds like you’re missing the point – there shouldn’t be a rise at all, with all the spin that was put on this as making it easier to employ out of work bene’s inclusive of youth this graph should be spiralling down, not upward.
I love these charts of the day. How they can take a small sub-set of data, and then graph it in the most ideal timeframe, and then have people draw a conclusion.
In this case, we have the “Youth rates introduced”, which is stupid; it’s when they were abolished.
So it became harder to employ young people. That’s a fact.
Then we have the “fire at will”, which is nothing of the sort. But hey, suddenly the graph suggests that once the law was enacted, employers everywhere FIRED young employees.
Of course the law never gave them that power, only the power to dismiss NEW employees. The laws affect on employment rates should be positive, the biggest point of contestion were employee’s rights.
And finally, we have a graph titled fire-at-will, comparing the sub-section of youth unemployment vs a policy aimed at overall employment. But we don’t get that graph, just the youth subsection graph
I agree with Lanthanide etc above who see the obvious problems with the graph above.
The main problem is that factors such as global recessions far outshine the effect of 90 day employment laws etc. To tease out the impact the lessor variable has on unemployment, the much stronger effect first has to be removed through appropriate statistical methods(e.g. multiple regression). Quite often, when this is done, a completely different picture will emerge for the weaker variable.
‘To tease out the impact the lessor variable has on unemployment, the much stronger effect first has to be removed through appropriate statistical methods(e.g. multiple regression). Quite often, when this is done, a completely different picture will emerge for the weaker variable.’
Absolutely correct.
Then we have to go back one step further and determine what brought about the global financial crisis of 2008 (which is a euphemism for the start of the never-ending depression, of course).
It couldn’t possibly have been the peaking of oil extraction (which ocurred over 2005 to 2006) in combination with rapidly increasing demand for oil from China and India, could it? No, that far too connected with reality and far too scary. Let’s look for some esoteric explanation that can be fixed with minor tweaking of policy settings.
It will be interesting to see how much longer the bulk of the populace refuses to accept some fundamental truths, such as that without cheap oil the global economic system founders, and that when oil extraction goes into significant decline the global economic system will implode.
If anything, the graph points to the abolishment of youth rates as the driver for high youth unemployment. Sure, youth unemployment has risen since the 90 day probation bill was introduced, however the graph clearly shows that the upward trend started in Q3 2008 – Well before the 90 day bill was introduced. aside from the small kink at the time the probation bill was introduced, its a pretty solid upward trend until Q4 2009.
As far as I can see, the graph makes a pretty strong case for youth rates.
The graph doesn’t point anywhere you moron. That’s the whole point of the graph. There just isn’t enough information available to show anything but you’re here saying that it shows that the abolishment of youth rates caused the rise in youth unemployment.
As far as I can see, the graph makes a pretty strong case for youth rates.
So in other words you do not believe in a fair days wage for a fair days work ??
If you do believe that a fair days work, is worth a fair days pay. And those on the minimum wage are probably going to lose somewhere between 3 and 5 bucks an hour, out of a wage of 13 bucks per hour thats a cut of between 25% and 30%. Then under the fair days work, for a fair days wage. You then will also agree to take a paycut of between 25% and 30% without squealing?? No?? Oh but WE CAN HIRE A TEEN for less than we pay you. Oh and why not do you not realise that to drop the minimum youth rate to say 10 bucks an hour, means that ANY other rate above is probably due for the same cut, except of course the big bosses. They will get productivity bonuses for keeping the labour bill down, and even bigger bonuses for cutting said bill even further.
There is an old saying . Be careful what you wish for. You may just get it.
1. It also means that adults will more than likely always be chosen over teens for positions where there is a choice between the too.
2. “means that ANY other rate above is probably due for the same cut” – thats wrong. It is safe to assume that those adults on higher than the minimum wage are on that rate because they have experience in the role. Cutting the pay of your experienced staff is only going to end up harming your business in the long term, as said staff use their experience to get employment elsewhere.
Business owners are out to be successful – deliberately undermining your business just so you can rip off your staff is not something that most business owners would bother even thinking about.
But what usually happens is that the good, well run business who does employ people on a fair wage gets undercut by people who go for the lowest cost option.
Having a minimum wage at a reasonable rate levels the play field somewhat between good and bad employers. It means that the business needs to be run on a service basis more than a cost basis.
I’ve watched many a good business go because some jerk comes in and undercuts the market by only employing people on low wages.
I know there is a right wing argument that they are not a good business if they can’t compete in that environment but that’s because often it’s only the financial bottom line that is looked at. The corporatisation of the economy only seems to look at the short-term financial bottom line.
One US example that highlighted this was the doco on Walmart and their move into a town meant the local run family business couldn’t compete. He paid his workers a good livable wage, Walmart paid minimum wage (and had other advantages such as tax beaks and council support as well).
It was pretty clear which workers were better off.
The friend of small business the right wing is not – the friend of the corporates and the bankers it is indeed.
Having another look at the graph one of the more striking features is that youth unemployment seems to be habitually high – 15% in 2007 (even while the revered youth rates were operating), then jumping to around 25% today.
Given how high it is, that raises the question of why that high possibility of unemployment isn’t an incentive for the young to return (or stay) at school or other training/education?
Right wingers often say it’s because of the ‘easy’ life on the dole.
But, there’s another explanation. By 15 or 16 years plenty of young people could have had an absolute gutsful of education as it’s currently institutionalised.
Of course, there are also plenty of 15-19 year olds who have ‘begun to live’ – have worked, had children, been in the army, etc. so going back to school would seem pretty retrograde in terms of life’s momentum.
Hell burt how many times do we have to tell you take your medication. And the delusion that you are actually saying something of importance, will slowly fade.
Or it could be that youth employment is notoriously short-term given the propensity of employment in seasonal work such as tourism, working in cafes, the relative willingness to move from town to town and the lower likelihood of getting work in rural areas in particular, the movement in and out of study as courses commence and finish and so on.
Add to this an increasing Maori and Polynesian youth population where large numbers of Maori also live rurally and the racism inherent in many employers about employing these young people.
Years ago much youth unemployment was hidden as government departments had to take on so many school leavers each year – whether they needed them or not. Not a policy I disagree with either – it at least gave these kids a good transition from school to work when private enterprise had insufficient jobs for them.
It’s funny when right wingers talk about work for the dole if you suggest that can be done by allowing government departments to take on more school leavers – it seems what they really mean is work for a pittance.
Most teens work in the fast food industry, and as a former manager of said fast food outlets. I can tell you they work bloody hard for the pittance they get.
One place I know hasn’t employed less staff – but it has churned through a few more quickly than it usually does.
It also hasn’t employed any extras – there’s not an increase in employment just a greater churn.
Bottom line is employers employer people when their is work to do and most people lost their jobs because there was no work.
If you ain’t got a building contract, if you have lost your export orders, if there is no stock to kill, if no one is spending money in your shop, if no-one is buying any houses…. there are no jobs.
Screwing the workers isn’t going to create anything.
Right, so the 90 day period makes no difference to the number of people unemployed. Of course the recession started late 2007 (early 2008 if you can’t face reality) would increase unemployment, as the graph shows.
Yeah I’d pretty much agree with that. It doesn’t make any difference – it simply means that employers can churn through more employees – eg youth rates come in then what you would see is that 17 year olds would lose their jobs as they turn 18 – I recall a supermarket in Wanganui and another one in Hawkes Bay who were both very good at finding reasons to dismiss people when they turned 18 – a 90 day law just makes that so much easier.
The 90 day law simply allows the poor employers to undercut the good employers in these types of low skilled areas.
It also gives worker less job security and makes them more fearful and makes it harder for them to plan their lives, take out mortgages, etc.
All in all it is simply a way of suppressing workers.
The focus should be on creating employment rather than sideshows like this from the government that are only designed to keep wages down. But of course that’s what they want – it’s all about profit and return to shareholders.
That’s what seems most clueless about this government – they seem to have absolutely no idea about how to create jobs for people.
I feel the above to be correct, in my experience in the hospitality industry.
There is always a line of immigrants willing to work for less than the average kiwi youth, and now with the Fire at Will law, an employer can ‘pick and flick’ workers before they accrue holidays or are able to use sick leave if you write the contract right(wing).
“Business owners are out to be successful – deliberately undermining your business just so you can rip off your staff is not something that most business owners would bother even thinking about”
Ever worked in a bar? Or a duopoly, oops I mean a Supermarket?
Also, I offer my explanation for the saw-tooth pattern for the first four quarters earlier in the graph. Opening and closing of the Immigration Tap.
“I feel the above to be correct, in my experience in the hospitality industry.”</i?
Well I feel the above to be incorrect, based on my experience in the hospitality industry.
There is always a line of immigrants willing to work for less than the average kiwi youth, and now with the Fire at Will law, an employer can ‘pick and flick’ workers before they accrue holidays or are able to use sick leave if you write the contract right(wing).”
1. It takes around two months to get most new low skill hospitality employees up to and acceptable level of performance. It simply isn’t worth putting the time and effort into people and then firing them – unless they are still rubbish at their job after all that training. At that point the employer loses out because they need to start training someone new. It simply isn’t worth churning good staff. That is self evident to anyone who gives it half a moments thought.
2. By in large, kiwi’s are better at hospitality than your low wage immigrant
3. Firing someone before three months still means you pay out holiday pay. Your assertion is completely false. Sick pay – correct. But sick pay doesn’t kick in until 12 months anyway. I doubt many employers begrude paying sick pay to employees after 12 months – i.e I doubt many employers would prefer a staff full of new employees over a staff full of experienced staff.
Ever worked in a bar? Or a duopoly, oops I mean a Supermarket?”
1. It takes around two months to get most new low skill hospitality employees up to and acceptable level of performance. It simply isn’t worth putting the time and effort into people and then firing them
Meh, 2 or 3 months is often enough for an employer to get through a seasonal peak and then dump the worker.
And if it takes you 2 months to train someone to be a dishy or glassy I suggest you revamp your training programme.
2. By in large, kiwi’s are better at hospitality than your low wage immigrant
Low wage kiwis are better at hospitality than low wage immigrants? Hmmm maybe.
In my experience Australians are generally better. But I suppose they get paid enough to actually take their jobs seriously over there.
Meh, 2 or 3 months is often enough for an employer to get through a seasonal peak and then dump the worker.
The provision for this already existed prior to the 90 day trial. You could already hire employees on a fixed term basis or a casual (no guaranteed hours) basis. The 90 day rule has not changed this.
And if it takes you 2 months to train someone to be a dishy or glassy I suggest you revamp your training programme.
If you think a glassy or dishy who has been working for 2 months is as efficient as one who has been working 12 months, then your theory bears no resemblance to reality.
In my experience Australians are generally better. But I suppose they get paid enough to actually take their jobs seriously over there.
A good NZ bartender will earn pretty much the same rate as an NZ bartender. The difference is the tipping culture which allows the Aussie bartender to take home nearly 50% more. Did you notice the embedded tipping culture last time you were there? or did you not tip?
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Prime Minister Chris Hipkins continues to be the new broom in Government, re-setting his Government away from its problem areas in his Cabinet reshuffle yesterday, and trying to convince voters that Labour is focused on “bread and butter” issues. The ministers responsible for unpopular reforms in water and DHB centralisation ...
Hi,It’s weird to me that in 2023 we still have people falling for multi-level marketing schemes (MLMs for short). There are Netflix documentaries about them, countless articles, and last year we did an Armchaired and Dangerous episode on them.Then you check a ticketing website like EventBrite and see this shit ...
Nanaia Mahuta fell the furthest in the Cabinet reshuffle. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: PM Chris Hipkins unveiled a Cabinet this afternoon he hopes will show wavering voters that a refreshed Labour Government is focused on ‘bread and butter cost of living’ issues, rather than the unpopular, unwieldy and massively centralising ...
Nanaia Mahuta fell the furthest in the Cabinet reshuffle. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: PM Chris Hipkins unveiled a Cabinet this afternoon he hopes will show wavering voters that a refreshed Labour Government is focused on ‘bread and butter cost of living’ issues, rather than the unpopular, unwieldy and massively centralising ...
Shortly, the absolute state of Wayne Brown. But before that, something I wrote four years ago for the council’s own media machine. It was a day-in-the-life profile of their many and varied and quite possibly unnoticed vital services. We went all over Auckland in 48 hours for the story, the ...
Completed reads for January Lilith, by George MacDonald The Rime of the Ancient Mariner (poem), by Samuel Taylor Coleridge Christabel (poem), by Samuel Taylor Coleridge The Saga of Ragnar Lodbrok, by Anonymous The Lay of Kraka (poem), by Anonymous 1066 and All That, by W.C. Sellar and R.J. ...
Pity the poor Brits. They just can’t catch a break. After years of reporting of lying Boris Johnson, a change to a less colourful PM in Rishi Sunak has resulted in a smooth media pivot to an end-of-empire narrative. The New York Times, no less, amplifies suggestions that Blighty ...
On that day all the springs of the great deep burst forth, and the floodgates of the heavens were opened. And rain fell on the earth.Genesis 6:11-12THE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS that dumped a record-breaking amount of rain on Auckland this anniversary weekend will reoccur with ever-increasing frequency. The planet’s atmosphere is ...
Buzz from the Beehive There has been plenty to keep the relevant Ministers busy in flood-stricken Auckland over the past day or two. But New Zealand, last time we looked, extends north of Auckland into Northland and south of the Bombay Hills all the way to the bottom of the ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters When early settlers came to the confluence of the Sacramento and American Rivers before the California Gold Rush, Indigenous people warned them that the Sacramento Valley could become an inland sea when great winter rains came. The storytellers described water filling the ...
Wayne Brown managed a smile when meeting with Remuera residents, but he was grumpy about having to deal with “media drongos”. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: In my pick of the news links found in my rounds since 4am for paying subscribers below the paywall:Wayne Brown moans about the media and ...
Wayne Brown managed a smile when meeting with Remuera residents, but he was grumpy about having to deal with “media drongos”. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: In my pick of the news links found in my rounds since 4am for paying subscribers below the paywall:Wayne Brown moans about the media and ...
Dr Bryce Edwards writes – Last night’s opinion polls answered the big question of whether a switch of prime minister would really be a gamechanger for election year. The 1News and Newshub polls released at 6pm gave the same response: the shift from Jacinda Ardern to Chris Hipkins ...
Hipkins’ aim this year will be to present a ‘low target’ for those seeking to attack Labour’s policies and spending. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: Anyone dealing with Government departments and councils who wants some sort of big or long-term decision out of officials or politicians this year should brace for ...
Hipkins’ aim this year will be to present a ‘low target’ for those seeking to attack Labour’s policies and spending. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: Anyone dealing with Government departments and councils who wants some sort of big or long-term decision out of officials or politicians this year should brace for ...
Last night’s opinion polls answered the big question of whether a switch of prime minister would really be a gamechanger for election year. The 1News and Newshub polls released at 6pm gave the same response: the shift from Jacinda Ardern to Chris Hipkins has changed everything, and Labour is back ...
Over the last few years, it’s seemed like city after city around the world has become subject to extreme flooding events that have been made worse by impacts from climate change. We’ve highlighted many of them in our Weekly Roundup series. Sadly, over the last few days it’s been Auckland’s ...
And so the first month of the year draws to a close. It rained in Auckland on 21 out of the 31 days in January. Feels like summer never really happened this year. It’s actually hard to believe there were 10 days that it didn’t rain. Was it any better where ...
Kia ora e te whānau. Today, we mark the anniversary of the signing of Te Tiriti o Waitangi - and our commitment to working in partnership with Māori to deliver better outcomes and tackle the big issues, together. ...
We’ve just announced a massive infrastructure investment to kick-start new housing developments across New Zealand. Through our Infrastructure Acceleration Fund, we’re making sure that critical infrastructure - like pipes, roads and wastewater connections - is in place, so thousands more homes can be built. ...
The Green Party is joining more than 20 community organisations to call for an immediate rent freeze in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland, after reports of landlords intending to hike rents after flooding. ...
When Chris Hipkins took on the job of Prime Minister, he said bread and butter issues like the cost of living would be the Government’s top priority – and this week, we’ve set out extra support for families and businesses. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to provide direct support to low-income households and to stop subsidising fossil fuels during a climate crisis. ...
The tools exist to help families with surging costs – and as costs continue to rise it is more urgent than ever that we use them, the Green Party says. ...
Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta departs for India tomorrow as she continues to reconnect Aotearoa New Zealand to the world. The visit will begin in New Delhi where the Foreign Minister will meet with the Vice President Hon Jagdeep Dhankar and her Indian Government counterparts, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and ...
Over $10 million infrastructure funding to unlock housing in Whangārei The purchase of a 3.279 hectare site in Kerikeri to enable 56 new homes Northland becomes eligible for $100 million scheme for affordable rentals Multiple Northland communities will benefit from multiple Government housing investments, delivering thousands of new homes for ...
A memorial event at a key battle site in the New Zealand land wars is an important event to mark the progress in relations between Māori and the Crown as we head towards Waitangi Day, Minister for Te Arawhiti Kelvin Davis said. The Battle of Ohaeawai in June 1845 saw ...
More Police officers are being deployed to the frontline with the graduation of 54 new constables from the Royal New Zealand Police College today. The graduation ceremony for Recruit Wing 362 at Te Rauparaha Arena in Porirua was the first official event for Stuart Nash since his reappointment as Police ...
The Government is unlocking an additional $700,000 in support for regions that have been badly hit by the recent flooding and storm damage in the upper North Island. “We’re supporting the response and recovery of Auckland, Waikato, Coromandel, Northland, and Bay of Plenty regions, through activating Enhanced Taskforce Green to ...
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has welcomed the announcement that Her Royal Highness The Princess Royal, Princess Anne, will visit New Zealand this month. “Princess Anne is travelling to Aotearoa at the request of the NZ Army’s Royal New Zealand Corps of Signals, of which she is Colonel in Chief, to ...
A new Government and industry strategy launched today has its sights on growing the value of New Zealand’s horticultural production to $12 billion by 2035, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor said. “Our food and fibre exports are vital to New Zealand’s economic security. We’re focussed on long-term strategies that build on ...
25 cents per litre petrol excise duty cut extended to 30 June 2023 – reducing an average 60 litre tank of petrol by $17.25 Road User Charge discount will be re-introduced and continue through until 30 June Half price public transport fares extended to the end of June 2023 saving ...
The strong economy has attracted more people into the workforce, with a record number of New Zealanders in paid work and wages rising to help with cost of living pressures. “The Government’s economic plan is delivering on more better-paid jobs, growing wages and creating more opportunities for more New Zealanders,” ...
The Government is providing a further $1 million to the Mayoral Relief Fund to help communities in Auckland following flooding, Minister for Emergency Management Kieran McAnulty announced today. “Cabinet today agreed that, given the severity of the event, a further $1 million contribution be made. Cabinet wishes to be proactive ...
The new Cabinet will be focused on core bread and butter issues like the cost of living, education, health, housing and keeping communities and businesses safe, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has announced. “We need a greater focus on what’s in front of New Zealanders right now. The new Cabinet line ...
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins will travel to Canberra next week for an in person meeting with Australian Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese. “The trans-Tasman relationship is New Zealand’s closest and most important, and it was crucial to me that my first overseas trip as Prime Minister was to Australia,” Chris Hipkins ...
The Government is providing establishment funding of $100,000 to the Mayoral Relief Fund to help communities in Auckland following flooding, Minister for Emergency Management Kieran McAnulty announced. “We moved quickly to make available this funding to support Aucklanders while the full extent of the damage is being assessed,” Kieran McAnulty ...
As the Mayor of Auckland has announced a state of emergency, the Government, through NEMA, is able to step up support for those affected by flooding in Auckland. “I’d urge people to follow the advice of authorities and check Auckland Emergency Management for the latest information. As always, the Government ...
Ka papā te whatitiri, Hikohiko ana te uira, wāhi rua mai ana rā runga mai o Huruiki maunga Kua hinga te māreikura o te Nota, a Titewhai Harawira Nā reira, e te kahurangi, takoto, e moe Ka mōwai koa a Whakapara, kua uhia te Tai Tokerau e te kapua pōuri ...
Carmel Sepuloni, Minister for Social Development and Employment, has activated Enhanced Taskforce Green (ETFG) in response to flooding and damaged caused by Cyclone Hale in the Tairāwhiti region. Up to $500,000 will be made available to employ job seekers to support the clean-up. We are still investigating whether other parts ...
The 2023 General Election will be held on Saturday 14 October 2023, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today. “Announcing the election date early in the year provides New Zealanders with certainty and has become the practice of this Government and the previous one, and I believe is best practice,” Jacinda ...
Jacinda Ardern has announced she will step down as Prime Minister and Leader of the Labour Party. Her resignation will take effect on the appointment of a new Prime Minister. A caucus vote to elect a new Party Leader will occur in 3 days’ time on Sunday the 22nd of ...
By Hilaire Bule, RNZ Pacific Vanuatu correspondent in Port Vila Vanuatu’s prime minister has stressed any future employment within the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) Secretariat must be from MSG member countries. Prime Minister Ishmael Kalsakau, who is also chair of the MSG Secretariat, made the statement following the recruitment of ...
SPECIAL REPORT:By Yamin Kogoya On Friday 10 February 2023, it will be one month since the Papua Governor Lukas Enembe was “kidnapped” at a local restaurant during his lunch hour by the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) and security forces. The crisis began in September 2022, when Governor Enembe was ...
By Kālino Lātū, editor of Kaniva News Dr Sitiveni Halapua, former deputy leader of Tonga’s Democratic Movement, has died aged 74. Born on February 13, 1949, he was a respected academic, a pioneer of Tonga’s democratic reforms and pioneer of a conflict resolution system based on traditional practices. Halapua earned ...
COMMENTARY:By Richard Naidu in Suva Five weeks on from Christmas Eve, I think most of us are still a bit stunned at what has happened in Fiji. A new government came to power in dramatic circumstances. It took not one but two Sodelpa management board meetings to change it, ...
By Red Tsounga Another house done, and onto the next . . . Volunteers working in Mount Roskill community over the past few days helping those suffering from Auckland’s flash flood devastation have done us proud. Tremendous work by everybody. Here are some random photos of our volunteer teams on ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne Mick Tsikas/AAP Senator Lidia Thorpe announced on Monday that she would be leaving the Greens. Thorpe had split with the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dennis B. Desmond, Lecturer, Cyberintelligence and Cybercrime Investigations, University of the Sunshine Coast The news of a so-called “Chinese spy balloon” being shot down over the US has reignited interest in how nation-states spy on one another. It’s not confirmed that the ...
Today, at a Waitangi ki Waititi concert hosted by Te Whānau o Waipareira at Hoani Waititi Marae, West Auckland; Takutai Moana Natasha Kemp was officially announced as Te Pāti Māori Candidate for Tāmaki Makaurau for the 2023 Election. Hailing ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Daniel Pockett/AAP Victorian Indigenous Senator Lidia Thorpe has defected from the Greens to sit on the crossbench, declaring she wants to fully represent the “Blak Sovereign Movement” in parliament. The announcement by ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Daniel Pockett/AAP Victorian Indigenous Senator Lidia Thorpe has defected from the Greens to sit on the crossbench, declaring she wants to fully represent the “Blak Sovereign Movement” in parliament. The announcement by ...
Sure, Scotty Morrison’s Māori At Work is a wonderful resource for Aotearoa’s collective te reo Māori journey. But is it judgemental enough for the modern office environment?First published September 12 2019 The growing strength of te reo is palpable across Aotearoa, with record numbers of people participating in Mahuru ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jane Mills, Professor and Dean La Trobe Rural Health School, La Trobe University Shutterstock It can be tough to access front-line health care outside the cities and suburbs. For the seven million Australians living in rural communities there are significant ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Donald Rothwell, Professor of International Law, Australian National University Chad Fish/AP Was the balloon that suddenly appeared over the US last week undertaking surveillance? Or was it engaging in research, as China has claimed? While the answers to these ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendan Walker-Munro, Senior Research Fellow, The University of Queensland Shutterstock The generative AI industry will be worth about A$22 trillion by 2030, according to the CSIRO. These systems – of which ChatGPT is currently the best known – can write ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Doug Drury, Professor/Head of Aviation, CQUniversity Australia Shutterstock When booking a flight, do you ever think about which seat will protect you the most in an emergency? Probably not. Most people book seats for comfort, such as leg room, ...
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has described this morning's Waitangi dawn service as moving and says he welcomes the shift away from a focus on politics. ...
Screenwriter Dana Leaming’s debut comedy series Not Even is out now on Prime and Neon. This is the out the gate story of how it got there.Kia ora, Hi, What up? Up to? U up? …I’m Dana. I wrote and co-directed (with Ainsley Gardiner) the TV show Not Even ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne Mick Tsikas/AAP A federal Newspoll, conducted February 1-4 from a sample of 1,512, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, unchanged on ...
The Human Rights Commission, Te Kāhui Tika Tangata, last week released two reports on racism and the impact of colonialism in Aotearoa. Among their many insights was the necessity of a wider understanding of how racism manifests itself. I was honoured to accept an invitation by Te Kāhui Tika Tangata ...
Vincent O’Malley reviews a history of the battle of Gate Pā.First published February 5, 2019 Head up Cameron Road, one of Tauranga’s main arterial routes, a few kilometres out of the city centre and you drive over one of New Zealand’s most important historical sites. The road, named after ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Murray Goot, Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University Support for embedding an Indigenous Voice to parliament in the Constitution has fallen. The polls provide good evidence once you work out how to find it. However, the voters who have ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Doug Drury, Professor/Head of Aviation, CQUniversity Australia Shutterstock When booking a flight, do you ever think about which seat will protect you the most in an emergency? Probably not. Most people book seats for comfort, such as leg room, or ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Libby Rumpff, Senior Research Fellow, The University of Melbourne David Crosling/AAP The Black Summer bushfires of 2019-20 were cataclysmic: a landmark in Australia’s environmental history. They burnt more than 10 million hectares, mostly forests in southeast Australia. Many of our most ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christine Grové, Fulbright Scholar and Adjunct Senior Lecturer, Monash University Anete Lusina/Pexels School attendance levels in Australia are a massive issue according to Education Minister Jason Clare. As he told reporters last week, he hopes to talk to state colleagues ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marion Terrill, Transport and Cities Program Director, Grattan Institute Revising the generous fuel tax credits given to businesses should be a priority for the Albanese government, because keeping them would conflict with two other pressing priorities: reducing carbon emissions and repairing the ...
For nine years he steered the ship he built, but last week Duncan Greive announced his surprise resignation as CEO of The Spinoff. He joins guest host, Jane Yee, to discuss how doing things differently took The Spinoff from an irreverent TV blog to a respected online magazine, and why ...
Three decades ago one of the giants of New Zealand thinking and writing, Ranginui Walker, published Ka Whawhai Tonu Mātou, Struggle Without End. The book, originally released in 1990 and revised in 2004, is a history of Aotearoa from a Māori perspective. It had a profound influence and today remains ...
A review for Waitangi weekend The bestselling novel Kāwai: For Such a Time as This by Monty Soutar feels like the story Matua Monty has been working toward telling his entire life. It aims for the loftiest mountain peak in a valiant attempt at the fabled Great New Zealand ...
Unfortunately the great flood of January 27 was not a one-off but a precursor to more emergencies likely to strike the city because of environmental effects of climate change. While the Auckland floods are proving devastating, costly and far-reaching, they have also had the strange effect of revealing Tamaki Makaurau's original landscape. ...
Health inequities between Pākehā and Māori are often framed as complex and difficult to change. But making access to GPs and dentists free will not only save money for whānau using these services, it will also save money for the health system and ensure Māori rights to good governance and equity ...
One of New Zealand's most promising fast bowlers, Molly Penfold, was surprised to get the call-up for the T20 World Cup, but she has a great support team around her, Merryn Anderson reports. She's only played one T20 for the White Ferns, and she's yet to take a wicket, but Molly ...
Labour and National’s leaders came to Waitangi agreed on which areas need more investment in election year. But as political editor Jo Moir writes, the country is going to see a big debate on how Māori should benefit from it Prime Minister Chris Hipkins used his speech at Sunday’s pōwhiri ...
Securing the right to housing will require us to challenge the very systems and ideologies that are doing such harm to our planet.Opinion: The images of rivers running down our streets, cars floating down the motorway, houses flooded and half-submerged buses ferrying people across the causeway, will stick with ...
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It is hard to separate the politics from Waitangi, but the day party leaders were welcomed on to Te Whare Rūnanga was largely free of inflammatory rhetoric and political point scoring. ...
Rheive Grey pays tribute to one political party’s unapologetic commitment to markers of Māori identity, from hei tiki to waiata to tikitiki. I’m proud to be Māori. If you’re like me, it’s hard to read that sentence without singing it in your head. That’s either the power of good campaigning, ...
When I was a man my dick was only average size, but learning how to tuck it out of sight is a steep learning curve for a girl on a budget. The Sunday Essay is made possible thanks to the support of Creative New Zealand.Illustrations: Sloane Hong The dick ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND Australia’s Reserve Bank is set to push up rates once again at its first meeting for the year on Tuesday, according to all but ...
By David Robie When Papuan journalist Victor Mambor visited New Zealand almost nine years ago, he impressed student journalists from the Pacific Media Centre and community activists with his refreshing candour and courage. As the founder of the Jubi news media group, he remained defiant that he would tell the ...
Today, Te Pāti Māori officially announced Mariameno Kapa-Kingi as their candidate for the Te Tai Tokerau electorate in this year’s General Election. The announcement was part of the pōwhiri for MPs at Te Whare Rūnanga o Waitangi. “Making the announcement ...
Paul Diamond’s book about the 1920s scandal that shocked Whanganui is on the longlist for the Ockhams (in the hotly contested General Non-Fiction category). Victor Rodger reviews. A closeted mayor with huge ambitions. A handsome, young, returned soldier with ambiguous motivations.A scandalous shooting that leads to a spectacular ...
An easy, low sugar jam that tastes even better than the sickly-sweet stuff. Often jam recipes call for much more sugar that I think is necessary, resulting in a cloyingly sweet jam whose flavour sadly becomes lost. Where some recipes will call for equal measures of fruit and sugar, this ...
Professor John Morgan offers a 'lesson plan' for Auckland children returning to school to help them understand what's going on in their city after the floods When Auckland schools go back, there’s a case to be made that geography teachers take over lessons for a day or two. Auckland’s ‘state of emergency’ ...
An acoustic 'harassment' device won’t be used to keep dolphins from high-speed boats, reports David Williams. Organisers of a super-fast boat race have scrapped plans to use an underwater noise device to scare dolphins in a marine mammal sanctuary. SailGP’s consultants, Enviser, lodged an application with the Department of Conservation (DoC) ...
Two reports on racism in New Zealand released by the Human Rights Commission land at a time when political rhetoric around racism is escalating again. Aaron Smale reports. The Human Rights Commission has released two reports that make a number of significant recommendations for confronting white supremacy and institutional racism. But ...
Flooding and land slides at her home in Titirangi have Zoe Hawkins sleeping in her running gear in case she has to flee. She shares her concern for others even more affected - and questions what the future brings. A week ago we lived on the edge of paradise. Our forever home ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Enshrining a constitutional Voice to parliament will bring better practical outcomes and give the best chance for Closing the Gap, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will say in a major address on the referendum on Sunday. ...
By Jamie Tahana, RNZ News Te Ao Māori journalist at Waitangi, and Russell Palmer, digital political journalist Iwi leaders in Aotearoa New Zealand have accused opposition parties National and ACT of “fanning the flames of racism”, urging the prime minister to be brave and not walk away from partnership on Three ...
By Phoebe Gwangilo in Port Moresby Higher Education Minister Don Polye has condemned a decision by the administration of the University of Papua New Guinea to treat a PNG-born and bred grade 12 school leaver as an “international” student. Roselyn Alog, 19, whose parents are Filipinos, was born and raised ...
RNZ Pacific Fiji’s former Elections Supervisor Mohammed Saneem is under investigation by the country’s anti-corruption agency for alleged abuse of office and has been stopped from fleeing the country. The Fijian Elections Office (FEO) said Saneem was alleged to have “on numerous occasions . . . unlawfully authorised payments of ...
Labour's position has alternated over the past few days: first Prime Minister Chris Hipkins would speak, then he wouldn't, and then he would again. ...
Te Pāti Māori Co-leaders Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer are announcing a transformative defence and foreign affairs policy which asserts the Mana Māori Motuhake and Tino Rangatiratanga of tangata whenua in Aotearoa at their Party’s ...
The Prime Minister will no longer speak at Waitangi commemorations after the organising trust moved the political leaders to a panel away from the main event The Waitangi National Trust wrote to political parties last month saying they didn’t want political leaders to speak at the pōwhiri held on the eve ...
The Prime Minister once again has a speaking slot at the pōwhiri in Waitangi after earlier on Saturday saying he would respect the wishes of the trust organisers by not doing so The Waitangi National Trust has given the green light for Chris Hipkins and other political leaders to speak ...
It’s been exactly a decade since Seven Sharp first appeared on our screens. Remember the first episode? We’ve unearthed the tapes. On this day in 2013, a bombshell was thrown into the New Zealand television landscape. “Time for us to make way, because you’re here to see what everyone’s talking ...
MetService meteorologist Lewis Ferris has fronted endless media requests and live crosses this week. Is he getting it right? Lewis Ferris is trying to find his weather map. “This week’s been so insane” he mutters as he closes multiple tabs on the three screens across his Wellington desk. He’s ...
After four years, executive director Max Tweedie has stepped down from Auckland Pride. He tells Sam Brooks about shepherding the festival through a tumultuous few years, and where he’s going from here.This year’s Auckland Pride Festival is set to be the biggest one yet. Over the course of more ...
A flailing mayor was only the public face of a multifaceted flooding communications failure. Duncan Greive examines the mess, and asks what can be done to improve it.It’s a chilling timeline. Stuff’s Kelly Dennett catalogued, beat-by-beat, the 12 hours in which Auckland was pummelled by a catastrophic deluge, interspersing ...
The Dunedin branch of the Green Party has selected Francisco Hernandez as its candidate for the Dunedin electorate in this year’s general election. Francisco Hernandez was the Otago University Students Association President in 2013. He has held a number ...
Waitangi organisers are trying to push political leaders to the side at Sunday's pōwhiri, but Labour's deputy leader says it's not for them to decide who speaks. Te Tai Tokerau MP and Labour’s deputy leader, Kelvin Davis, says the Prime Minister will speak at Sunday’s pōwhiri at Waitangi, in defiance of local ...
Every weekday, The Detail makes sense of the big news stories. This week, we spoke to an aid worker who had made the trip to the war zone in Ukraine, looked at why Carmel Sepuloni was picked to be the new deputy prime minister, visited the flood-torn streets of Titirangi in West ...
Schools play an integral but often unrecognised and unacknowledged role in helping communities respond to and recover from disastersOpinion: Schools in Auckland and other flood-affected areas are about to re-open after a delayed start to the new school year. Students will return to school having experienced wide-ranging impacts. While some ...
A very short story for Waitangi weekend The pā is a lonely place nowadays. Gorse has marched on it like the British troops of old, consuming the hills and leaving the marae looking a bald patch on the head of the earth mother herself. Even the roads have worn thin, ...
This is The Detail's Long Read - one in-depth story read by us every weekend. This week, it's The School Away From School written by Bill Morris and published in NZ Geographic's January/February 2023 issue. You can find the entire article, with photos from Lottie Hedley, on the NZ Geographic website. One hundred years since its ...
COMMENTARY:By Kayt Davies in Perth I wasn’t good at French in my final year of high school. My classmates had five years of language studies behind them. I had three. As a result of my woeful grip on the language, I wrote a terribly bad essay in my final ...
RNZ Pacific Journalist Victor Mambor, who is the chief editor of the West Papuan newspaper and websiteJubi, has received the Oktovianus Pogau Award from the Indonesian-based Pantau Foundation for courage in journalism. The foundation’s Andreas Harsono said Mambor’s decision to return to his father’s homeland and defend the rights ...
RNZ News Green Party MP Chlöe Swarbrick is brushing off concerns a temporary rent freeze in flood-hit Auckland would just see landlords hike rents even more when the controls were lifted — arguing they should stay permanently. More than 20 organisations have signed a letter urging Minister for Auckland Michael ...
This really is quite transparently stupid.
You’ve marked two important points related to employment law, but left off all other external influences that affect youth employment, such as the global financial crisis and resulting recession (depression?).
This graph, such as it is, really doesn’t convey any meaningful information.
that’s the point, one would think.
The right is claiming that abolishing youth rates increased youth unemployment on the spurious logic that youth unemployment has risen since then.
Equally, the right claims that fire at will is helping young people into work.
the graph shows that using the right’s logic, fire at will has increased youth unemployment. Thereby, elegantly showing what a crock of shit the right’s logic is.
Since when has an economic policy that has been introduced into an economy had overnight results? The poster seems to think the graph would have climbed immediately if the claims of Key and the “Right” were true.
On the same basis, it would be equivalent to a rise in the minimum wage immediately introducing inflation. Or changes to the tax system immediately resulting in massively lower/higher tax takes.
From his graph it appears the youth unemployment was 6 months after the policy took effect, which seems pretty reasonable…..
Seems to be a direct conflict with Mr Key’s words. (During question time yesterday?)
Lanthanide thinks is stupid, what’s stupid is we have a whole global class of people who brag how much their companies are destroying resources, using oil, and how much faster they can do it if they get a tax cut, and when they do lie, we send them to jail for fraud. Imagine that, someone lies that they just order the destruction of rain forests and they didn’t losing millions of investors their blood money. We don’t need not frigging pollution control, no tax rises!
Madoff is a hero!
Debt is ravaging the culture, the society, the children, all to keep debotrs from having to pay up.
Oh but if we hadn’t introduced Fire at Will, youth unemployment would be THREE TIMES worse than it is now!
You Lefties WANT to keep people poor and unemployed, that must be it!
Either that or the Righties want a flooded, over supplied, fearful, compliant pool of labour.
Wonder which.
But don’t you realise Zetetic? Without youth rates and fire at will, it would have been so much worse for young New Zealanders. Just like in the 90s, wages would have been so much lower than they were if it weren’t for the fact that collective bargaining was completely undermined.
These right wing policies soften all those ‘blows’ the world throws at us. Of course we still feel the blows … but you just have to believe, Zetetic, you and I are always being saved from an even worse fate by these compassionately rational policies.
[I don’t generally like sarcasm, but at the moment it just seems right.]
It should say “Youth rates abolished” – not “introduced”.
Lanth, I think Z’s intent is to refute the argument that the abolition of youth rates caused the spike in youth unemployment, rather than to imply that there is any causative relationship between the fire at will law and youth unemployment.
Sure, that is shown by the graph. But I still think it is misleading.
Also, Zet’s comment after the graph is “Fire at will was meant to help young people into work, wasn’t it?”, if he was trying to draw attention to abolition of youth rates not increasing unemployment, then some mention of that in the comment would have made it much clearer.
How about that. Another peak oil related phenomeon that doesn’t get related to peak oil.
I see OPEC don’t feel incline to pump more oil to save the world economy, and that oil prices have risen. How odd.
Luckily the economies of Europe and the US are collapsing faster than ours, otherwise we might have to do something.
so, what your saying is that zets graph is garbage and a weak attempt to deflect attention away from the fact that youth employment rose after the abolishment of youth rates? cool thought so.
someone has to read between the rails your thinking is on
but it rose even more and more sharply after fire at will was introduced.
by your logic, fire at will has caused youth unemployment to rise.
of which the timing coincided with the lagging effect of employment figure reporting as result of the GFC maybe? no, that can’t be right, doesn’t fit with the labour party manifesto and current play book issued with each new post on the standard. Blighty, when you really understand economics, come back and argue with me.
to save you having to use your brain, if price for a good goes up, demand for that good goes down, unless there are no readily substitutable goods. ie margarine for butter. so in this case, with ceterus parabis applying as even though i know you will be sitting down, drooling over the large button keyboard, i still don’t want to floor you, Adults for youths. as basic as it gets, but first principles are first for a reason
If in red it’s suposed to be Your Rates Abolished the graph isn’t a good look, because from that time on the graph gradually climbs after a short lag – it would likely not be an instant effect.
A significant climb starts well before the employment trial period was introduced – and it’s increase after that could as easily be linked to the financial crash which is a more likely cause.
The whole graph looks amazingly like it charts the beginning of the financial wobbles in early 2008 followed by the collywobbles.
Why don’t you just show a chart of numbers of people whose employment has been terminated within 90 days of employment, that’s actually relevant to the point you’re trying to make.
“Why don’t you just show a chart of numbers of people whose employment has been terminated within 90 days of employment, that’s actually relevant to the point you’re trying to make.”
Because the National government, in their infinitesimal wisdom, decided that no such official statistics needed to be recorded. Presumably because that might show that the law was being exploited or not actually working properly, so it’s safer to simply say it is working as you expected and not risk any statistics saying otherwise.
I thought the unions were going to keep us informed of the predicted avalanche of <90 terminations. I haven't seen them making much of it.
Sounds like you’re missing the point – there shouldn’t be a rise at all, with all the spin that was put on this as making it easier to employ out of work bene’s inclusive of youth this graph should be spiralling down, not upward.
The main point is that the financial conditions will have had much more influence than the 90 day trial.
If you think the chart movement is all due to the 90 day trial can you explain the sawtooth variations in 2007?
I love these charts of the day. How they can take a small sub-set of data, and then graph it in the most ideal timeframe, and then have people draw a conclusion.
In this case, we have the “Youth rates introduced”, which is stupid; it’s when they were abolished.
So it became harder to employ young people. That’s a fact.
Then we have the “fire at will”, which is nothing of the sort. But hey, suddenly the graph suggests that once the law was enacted, employers everywhere FIRED young employees.
Of course the law never gave them that power, only the power to dismiss NEW employees. The laws affect on employment rates should be positive, the biggest point of contestion were employee’s rights.
And finally, we have a graph titled fire-at-will, comparing the sub-section of youth unemployment vs a policy aimed at overall employment. But we don’t get that graph, just the youth subsection graph
So yes, a brilliant graph.
I agree with Lanthanide etc above who see the obvious problems with the graph above.
The main problem is that factors such as global recessions far outshine the effect of 90 day employment laws etc. To tease out the impact the lessor variable has on unemployment, the much stronger effect first has to be removed through appropriate statistical methods(e.g. multiple regression). Quite often, when this is done, a completely different picture will emerge for the weaker variable.
‘To tease out the impact the lessor variable has on unemployment, the much stronger effect first has to be removed through appropriate statistical methods(e.g. multiple regression). Quite often, when this is done, a completely different picture will emerge for the weaker variable.’
Absolutely correct.
Then we have to go back one step further and determine what brought about the global financial crisis of 2008 (which is a euphemism for the start of the never-ending depression, of course).
It couldn’t possibly have been the peaking of oil extraction (which ocurred over 2005 to 2006) in combination with rapidly increasing demand for oil from China and India, could it? No, that far too connected with reality and far too scary. Let’s look for some esoteric explanation that can be fixed with minor tweaking of policy settings.
It will be interesting to see how much longer the bulk of the populace refuses to accept some fundamental truths, such as that without cheap oil the global economic system founders, and that when oil extraction goes into significant decline the global economic system will implode.
They can vote green, that will keep the blinkers on for a little longer )
Agree with PeteG.
If anything, the graph points to the abolishment of youth rates as the driver for high youth unemployment. Sure, youth unemployment has risen since the 90 day probation bill was introduced, however the graph clearly shows that the upward trend started in Q3 2008 – Well before the 90 day bill was introduced. aside from the small kink at the time the probation bill was introduced, its a pretty solid upward trend until Q4 2009.
As far as I can see, the graph makes a pretty strong case for youth rates.
The graph doesn’t point anywhere you moron. That’s the whole point of the graph. There just isn’t enough information available to show anything but you’re here saying that it shows that the abolishment of youth rates caused the rise in youth unemployment.
As far as I can see, the graph makes a pretty strong case for youth rates.
So in other words you do not believe in a fair days wage for a fair days work ??
If you do believe that a fair days work, is worth a fair days pay. And those on the minimum wage are probably going to lose somewhere between 3 and 5 bucks an hour, out of a wage of 13 bucks per hour thats a cut of between 25% and 30%. Then under the fair days work, for a fair days wage. You then will also agree to take a paycut of between 25% and 30% without squealing?? No?? Oh but WE CAN HIRE A TEEN for less than we pay you. Oh and why not do you not realise that to drop the minimum youth rate to say 10 bucks an hour, means that ANY other rate above is probably due for the same cut, except of course the big bosses. They will get productivity bonuses for keeping the labour bill down, and even bigger bonuses for cutting said bill even further.
There is an old saying . Be careful what you wish for. You may just get it.
1. It also means that adults will more than likely always be chosen over teens for positions where there is a choice between the too.
2. “means that ANY other rate above is probably due for the same cut” – thats wrong. It is safe to assume that those adults on higher than the minimum wage are on that rate because they have experience in the role. Cutting the pay of your experienced staff is only going to end up harming your business in the long term, as said staff use their experience to get employment elsewhere.
Business owners are out to be successful – deliberately undermining your business just so you can rip off your staff is not something that most business owners would bother even thinking about.
But what usually happens is that the good, well run business who does employ people on a fair wage gets undercut by people who go for the lowest cost option.
Having a minimum wage at a reasonable rate levels the play field somewhat between good and bad employers. It means that the business needs to be run on a service basis more than a cost basis.
I’ve watched many a good business go because some jerk comes in and undercuts the market by only employing people on low wages.
I know there is a right wing argument that they are not a good business if they can’t compete in that environment but that’s because often it’s only the financial bottom line that is looked at. The corporatisation of the economy only seems to look at the short-term financial bottom line.
One US example that highlighted this was the doco on Walmart and their move into a town meant the local run family business couldn’t compete. He paid his workers a good livable wage, Walmart paid minimum wage (and had other advantages such as tax beaks and council support as well).
It was pretty clear which workers were better off.
The friend of small business the right wing is not – the friend of the corporates and the bankers it is indeed.
Having another look at the graph one of the more striking features is that youth unemployment seems to be habitually high – 15% in 2007 (even while the revered youth rates were operating), then jumping to around 25% today.
Given how high it is, that raises the question of why that high possibility of unemployment isn’t an incentive for the young to return (or stay) at school or other training/education?
Right wingers often say it’s because of the ‘easy’ life on the dole.
But, there’s another explanation. By 15 or 16 years plenty of young people could have had an absolute gutsful of education as it’s currently institutionalised.
Of course, there are also plenty of 15-19 year olds who have ‘begun to live’ – have worked, had children, been in the army, etc. so going back to school would seem pretty retrograde in terms of life’s momentum.
Oh look another graph of the day that shows the impact of Labour’s economic mismanagement.
Hell burt how many times do we have to tell you take your medication. And the delusion that you are actually saying something of importance, will slowly fade.
Or it could be that youth employment is notoriously short-term given the propensity of employment in seasonal work such as tourism, working in cafes, the relative willingness to move from town to town and the lower likelihood of getting work in rural areas in particular, the movement in and out of study as courses commence and finish and so on.
Add to this an increasing Maori and Polynesian youth population where large numbers of Maori also live rurally and the racism inherent in many employers about employing these young people.
Years ago much youth unemployment was hidden as government departments had to take on so many school leavers each year – whether they needed them or not. Not a policy I disagree with either – it at least gave these kids a good transition from school to work when private enterprise had insufficient jobs for them.
It’s funny when right wingers talk about work for the dole if you suggest that can be done by allowing government departments to take on more school leavers – it seems what they really mean is work for a pittance.
Most teens work in the fast food industry, and as a former manager of said fast food outlets. I can tell you they work bloody hard for the pittance they get.
Question: How has the 90 day trial period lowered the number of staff a fast food outlet employes ?
One place I know hasn’t employed less staff – but it has churned through a few more quickly than it usually does.
It also hasn’t employed any extras – there’s not an increase in employment just a greater churn.
Bottom line is employers employer people when their is work to do and most people lost their jobs because there was no work.
If you ain’t got a building contract, if you have lost your export orders, if there is no stock to kill, if no one is spending money in your shop, if no-one is buying any houses…. there are no jobs.
Screwing the workers isn’t going to create anything.
Right, so the 90 day period makes no difference to the number of people unemployed. Of course the recession started late 2007 (early 2008 if you can’t face reality) would increase unemployment, as the graph shows.
Yeah I’d pretty much agree with that. It doesn’t make any difference – it simply means that employers can churn through more employees – eg youth rates come in then what you would see is that 17 year olds would lose their jobs as they turn 18 – I recall a supermarket in Wanganui and another one in Hawkes Bay who were both very good at finding reasons to dismiss people when they turned 18 – a 90 day law just makes that so much easier.
The 90 day law simply allows the poor employers to undercut the good employers in these types of low skilled areas.
It also gives worker less job security and makes them more fearful and makes it harder for them to plan their lives, take out mortgages, etc.
All in all it is simply a way of suppressing workers.
The focus should be on creating employment rather than sideshows like this from the government that are only designed to keep wages down. But of course that’s what they want – it’s all about profit and return to shareholders.
That’s what seems most clueless about this government – they seem to have absolutely no idea about how to create jobs for people.
I feel the above to be correct, in my experience in the hospitality industry.
There is always a line of immigrants willing to work for less than the average kiwi youth, and now with the Fire at Will law, an employer can ‘pick and flick’ workers before they accrue holidays or are able to use sick leave if you write the contract right(wing).
“Business owners are out to be successful – deliberately undermining your business just so you can rip off your staff is not something that most business owners would bother even thinking about”
Ever worked in a bar? Or a duopoly, oops I mean a Supermarket?
Also, I offer my explanation for the saw-tooth pattern for the first four quarters earlier in the graph. Opening and closing of the Immigration Tap.
RedJez,
“I feel the above to be correct, in my experience in the hospitality industry.”</i?
Well I feel the above to be incorrect, based on my experience in the hospitality industry.
There is always a line of immigrants willing to work for less than the average kiwi youth, and now with the Fire at Will law, an employer can ‘pick and flick’ workers before they accrue holidays or are able to use sick leave if you write the contract right(wing).”
1. It takes around two months to get most new low skill hospitality employees up to and acceptable level of performance. It simply isn’t worth putting the time and effort into people and then firing them – unless they are still rubbish at their job after all that training. At that point the employer loses out because they need to start training someone new. It simply isn’t worth churning good staff. That is self evident to anyone who gives it half a moments thought.
2. By in large, kiwi’s are better at hospitality than your low wage immigrant
3. Firing someone before three months still means you pay out holiday pay. Your assertion is completely false. Sick pay – correct. But sick pay doesn’t kick in until 12 months anyway. I doubt many employers begrude paying sick pay to employees after 12 months – i.e I doubt many employers would prefer a staff full of new employees over a staff full of experienced staff.
Ever worked in a bar? Or a duopoly, oops I mean a Supermarket?”
Yes. And Yes.
Meh, 2 or 3 months is often enough for an employer to get through a seasonal peak and then dump the worker.
And if it takes you 2 months to train someone to be a dishy or glassy I suggest you revamp your training programme.
Low wage kiwis are better at hospitality than low wage immigrants? Hmmm maybe.
In my experience Australians are generally better. But I suppose they get paid enough to actually take their jobs seriously over there.
Meh, 2 or 3 months is often enough for an employer to get through a seasonal peak and then dump the worker.
The provision for this already existed prior to the 90 day trial. You could already hire employees on a fixed term basis or a casual (no guaranteed hours) basis. The 90 day rule has not changed this.
And if it takes you 2 months to train someone to be a dishy or glassy I suggest you revamp your training programme.
If you think a glassy or dishy who has been working for 2 months is as efficient as one who has been working 12 months, then your theory bears no resemblance to reality.
In my experience Australians are generally better. But I suppose they get paid enough to actually take their jobs seriously over there.
A good NZ bartender will earn pretty much the same rate as an NZ bartender. The difference is the tipping culture which allows the Aussie bartender to take home nearly 50% more. Did you notice the embedded tipping culture last time you were there? or did you not tip?