This should be front page news and linked directly to John Key.
What does Key have to say about it? I mean currency trade is supposed to be about support of trade etc, however it is quite clear that near 95% of currency trade is 100% pure speculation.
The chart doesn’t tell us where “invisibles” come. In the left block or the right block. Assuming they are in the right block then we don’t know how much of that block is actual speculation.
‘This should be front page news and linked directly to John Key.’
You have got to be dreaming!
The prime function of the corporate-owned media is to keep all fundamental truths well hidden and keep the proles distracted with trivia. And make a profit out of it.
99% of the populace don’t even realise: they actually pay money to be distracted and misinformed. That’s how successful the corporate misinformation system is.
Perhaps you can suggest that the next left led government could set up a ministry for truth so that the ‘correct’ view of the world can be put forward.
Even when there is truth, knowledge that is generated from robust academic research the current government choose not to believe it and do the opposite of what is recommended!
Except that this, like the media, leaves out a huge amount of information. A lot of the media isn’t corporately owned, it’s publically funded, and it certainly isn’t all right-wing.
Nice chart. Whats the source, be interested to know if there is any historical information available (ie, would like to look at how its changed over the last few years)
Why else would Key say you can do nothing , as a former currency trader thats what they want.
The small margins on huge speculative flows and the ‘carriage’ trade are what he made his fortune on. Being paid massive bonuses based on the profit for his company.
I see an opening for Winston Peters here, as Labour sits on its hands regarding currency speculation.
Its right up Peters street to rail against the ‘big money speculators’ and the effect its having on average kiwis. Watch this space
New Zealand used to strictly control the currency by setting it’s value against the US Dollar. That didn’t stop the speculators causing a run against it in 1984.
You just need to look at Zimbabwe, (where currency speculation was made illegal pre 2008), to see what would happen if you attempted to do something similar here.
You can’t eliminate a market were there is a need for it.
Yeah right again Gossip Man telling porkies again . make it up as you go Gossman. its hardly wort replying to BS Zimbabwe was a totally different scenario nothing faintly similar to NZ 1984 .You say you have worked for different investment banks what as cleaner or tea lady.Muldoon was playing games with the opposition while they were waiting in the wings. Muldoom borrowed and hoped us into a corner not unlike Bill English and Roger Douglas.Zimbabwe lost most of its productive sector and there were to few goods in the market due to his nihilistic behavior .The opposite was true of Muldoon we had to many goods and couldn’t sell them. Goossman your under standing is a joke your claims to have worked for big investment banks is an even bigger joke!
You have no idea about what happened in Zimbabwe with regard the currency there do you mik e? Well that much is clear from your response.
So to educate you a little – what the Government there tried to do for a number of years, especially between 2000 and 2008 was to set the price of the Zimbabwe dollar, in essence to fix it.
The trouble was the dollar is only worth what the market is willing to pay for it, not what a Government official decides it is worth.
Zimbabwe found that out the hard way when the official market dried up and people took their money to the black market instead.
NZ learned a similar lesson in 1984 when Muldoon refused to let the market determine a more realistic value of the currency.
Which chart, the meaningless one at the top, or the electionresults one just underneath?
The top one has virtually no information so it’s impossible to tell what it relates to, the other is an “if the eelction was today” sort of scenario that also has limited meaning because if an election was today many people would be thinking differently about how they might vote.
i know it is bashing my head against a brick wall but a structure based on financial renumeration is no way to run an Election Poll. I-Predict is a stock exchange. People have a commercial interest in the results. If that does not skew the content then i don’t know what would. How can it be at all accurate when people always will, always can and always do manipulate stocks to make money.
It might be fun for those taking part but being touted around the place as a poll device to show how voters may or may not be behaving is not what we need when trying to kick a Trader out of office.
The value of these things are dependent on the real event. Hence if it is totally skewed because of the bias you claim exists then it would be easy to make a killing by basing your bets on what you think the actual reality is.
Ummm… his point, if I read him correctly, is that I-predict is bollox because of the underlying bias of the people in the market. However if there does exist such a bias, as the basis of the market is real world outcomes, it would be easy to make money by betting against the market.
For example if I-predict is suggesting that National will win the election by 10 percentage points and you think this is bollox and as a result of inbuilt bias then bet that it will be less than that or even that Labour will win. you will get quite good rate on that and therefore make a nice tidy sum.
Now what is so hard for you to understand about that?
How abou you, (or freedom) tell me what the point is because –
“I-Predict is a stock exchange. People have a commercial interest in the results. If that does not skew the content then i don’t know what would. How can it be at all accurate when people always will, always can and always do manipulate stocks to make money.”
Seems to indicate pretty clearly that freedom was trying to claim that I-predict is inaccurate because of the nature of the people engaged in the market.
Where in that passage is there anything remotely suggesting something other than what I have suggested it means?
So felix explain exactly what freedom’s point was if not stating that I-predict is a biased market (i.e. one which reflects more a particular view of a select number of market participants rather than the underlying reality).
You have till to tell me what freedom’s point was if not that I-Predict does not reflect reality because of the underlying bias of people in that market to attempt to manipulate it for financial ends.
So please explain how all that is reflected in freedom’s statement “How can it [i.e. I-predict] be at all accurate when people always will, always can and always do manipulate stocks to make money”?
It seems quite clear from that single sentence that freedom doesn’t think I-predict is an accurate reflection of the underlying reality.
Which was exactly my point. If freedom doesn’t think this then take advantage of this fact and place bets that more accurately reflects reality.
It is quite simple really freedom. I-predict will pay out when something in the real world becomes more likely to happen. You sell as the event becomes more likely to happen and if you are correct then as more information comes to light then this will be reflected in the price.
You think it doesn’t reflect accurately the chance of this thing happening because of the way it has been baised by market participants in their efforts to make money.
However if it isn’t pricing correctly because of this reason it offers you and prime opportunity to make some cash by betting on something with better than even odds.
Let me put it another way for you using a real life example. Some people made a killing in Hong Kong horse race betting because to Chinese people cerain numbers are lucky and certain are unlucky. So Horses that had the number 8, (which I believe is very lucky), received more money than they may have warrented because of form. Hence if you had a good betting strategy you could beat the market.
Life is a gamble lprent. Human activity is driven by risk and reward.
As for why freedom should care, essentially I was advising freedom to put the money where the writing skills were. If what freedom was stating was correct then I-predict is a market ripe to be expolited by someone who takes advantage of the distortions.
Oh I agree that it is a shallow market that would be easy to exploit. My point was that as a market it also carries no real meaning outside of making money. Why would I or freedom want to participate? That is why it is shallow – because it is designed for shallow people. You can tell – they show Act getting significiant vote… 😈
If I have time or effort or resources to expend on a political party then I can and do that directly. If I have something to say on the political process I can and do that directly as well.
For that matter if I want to support a company I often just go and work for them or directly buy their shares – many interesting companies aren’t listed in any market.
Ever since we have had a floating exchange rate specualtion in foreign exchange made up approx 95% of all FE trades. It is a zero sum game, the winners = the loosers.
We should put a tax on it as was suggested by the economist Tobin, ie the Tobin Tax.
Just desserts
The real lunacy of the modern Markets, be it crops, cash, diamonds or debt, is how the majority of trading now occurs with no human pause of consideration or thoughts of redress to the
ramifications of the investment. In times past a Trader’s house was a fancy restaurant that most would speak of in hush reverie and maybe get to see once or twice on those very special occassions that colour one’s life. They were always a busy place.
Friends and foes would gather, some arriving by ship, or plane, some by private car, some on public trains but all could walk in the gate knowing as long as the bill could be paid, they had as fair a chance as the next guy to get a table. The Traders were there to facilitate the transaction and it happened at the physically-constrained speed of the human. Even with the advent of digital technology into the markets, there was always a human to show the menu, take the order and deliver the desserts. The Trader may have slowed the course during a run on apple pie or softened a call for more baklava and pushed out a tiramisu, but not today.
Today the market is Algorithm. A monument to avarice. You get to look in through a slit in the wall and shout an order for a cheeseburger but never again will you see the front door. It doesn’t matter if you have a jacket & tie, there are no longer any tables open in the dining room. If you are quick and don’t mind the smell, there are some spots on the back terrace by the bins.
Your experience of the party is now well and truly that of an outsider.
Inside, Crab Platters of digital delectations are being cracked crunched chomped swallowed and excreted before the Human Trader even saw the option was on the table.
its a bloody analogy. Way to ruin a creative day you pinhead.
For Gosman: or, Comprehension for toddlers
In days past if you had a few bucks you could trade and people controlled the trades. Now if you have a few bucks you have a computer trading autonomously for you.
You really have no idea about the history of the market do you.
Markets have tended to be loud, messy, busy places where people shout and jostle and attempt to get the best deals for themselves. You just need to look at market places in third world nations to realise that.
Methinks you confuse a useful thing such as a market with a useless thing such as a a casino. Anybody working in a market will tell you it works best in a win win fair trade scenario where something useful changes hands. A casino on the other hand pits you on an all or nothing win lose scenario.
No I think you mistake a market for a bureaucratic clearing house.
Markets are whatever people want them to be. Even if you attempt to control them or make them illegal they will still exist in whatever form the people involved in them want.
That is why Socialists could never, and can never, control the black market. I suspect you think the black market is a bad thing.
FFSake Gos, you are a total pillock. I work in markets. I do real business stuff in them, and I know speculation when I see it. Even do some. You get some real life stuff poked at you and you go off about beaurocrats….I never even mentioned them. Where did that tosh come from?
Then its the “socialist” call. FFSake again. I said markets were useful…sounds a very socialist statement dont you think? Thats just the point, you dont think.
Then the “black market” comment. Are you getting desparate?
Why are you such a literal and close-minded individual ? I know that the world i sometimes allude to has never existed you complete moron, if it did do you think people like myself would bother to be fighting for one. Gosman you are without doubt one of the most obstinate children i have ever attempted to communicate with.
You talk of a free market that has never been free. You say you want a level playfield yet put the goalposts on a bank. You blather on about the wastrels that are the left and how they never amount to anything real. If real is the world that i see around us and that is all it will ever be, and that satisfies you then i despair for your heart Gosman, i really do.
So what was the point of raising the idea of times past when you now admit they never existed and doesn’t reflect the reality of the human condition when it comes to commercial interactions between two or more people?
Why didn’t you just state that was where you dream, (and it is a dream), humans could get to at some indeterminate time in the future?
Your analogy does highlight why left wing people never understand the market because they think they can tame and civilise human nature in some utopian vision of love and light.
Actually that’s why you have market regulations and rules; because Lefties know very well that human nature can be cruel and unkind to the vulnerable and powerless.
Of course its nothing to do with internal hyper inflation and the fact Zimbabwe has no productive sector . I suspect that the wheel barrows of cash got to much for them and they went back to bartering it was never going to work in a country like Zimbabwe using it as an example shows the futility of your argument!
Zimbabwe had a large non-agricultural productive sector mik e. It was the second largest in SADC until the early 2000. It was Zanu-PF’s policy of fixing the dollar, inefficient SOE’s, and excessive size of the Zimbabwe state that destroyed it and led to the Hyper inflation. Zanu-PF’s land grab starting in 2000 only accelerated the decline of what was already in a very parlous state.
Gos, much as I dont like the Zimmers business have you ever considered that what you were watching that lead to the hyper inflation was the ending of a century old invasion and imposed system? Perhaps the natives just got plain pissed off with it and did not care about the money and foreign interests reactions. To me it looks like a very high price to pay to get rid of invaders and their systems but who knows? Did you lose a farm?
Uh, not true, our real economy exporters have been slaughtered by the high dollar and the variability in our dollar.
Having our dollar >US60c has meant hundreds of thousands of jobs destroyed.
If we were smart like Singapore we would peg the dollar to a (secret) basket of foreign currencies and weight its movements to achieve our national economic goals.
Let’s tax the fuckers. A Financial Trading Tax at ONLY one tenth of 1% on this figure would bring in $265 million a month or $3.18 billion a year. Although once instigated it would slow the trade down, so we wouldn’t get so much but at least the NZD would be at a sensible price, because at the current level it is going to send exporters to the wall and cost thousands of jobs.
Just about every other country is intervening in its currency using many different devices .China has no problem setting it currency so all its productive sectors can make a steady profit. The only ones that make a steady profit in New Zealand are the untaxed speculators . They are nothing but leaches on the productive sectors !New Zealand is one of the very few countries that allow the productive sector to be annihilated every time one of our sectors stars making a profit so hence we borrow more to keep the economy afloat which makes the currency more volatile
Sorry, but if you’re going to claim that someone is ‘profiting’ from the dollar, then you better include consumers, which is pretty much everyone. Oil would be at least a dollar more expensive if the USD were to fall by 30c, which would impact every good in the country. So consumers do benefit from the higher dollar too.
Zetetic – I am sure your graph is accurate but the point I think you are trying to make is wrong. It is the so-called speculators who keep the currency relatively stable. If there were no speculators, everytime Air New Zealand bought a new plane or Fonterra brought back dividends from its offshore investors, the currency would swing massively. The speculators means that such transactions don’t singificantly affect the value of the currency. This means, ironically, that real businesspeople – eg Air New Zealand, Fonterra, etc – can rely on the value of the currency much more than if the speculators weren’t involved. This seems a stretch at 88c but its still true!
Yes but our lefty friends on the whole don’t understand the benefit of having liquid markets Matthew.
To many of them all speculation is inherently evil and should be stamped out. Prices should be set at fair value and managed under the auspices of a benevolent and just Government agency.
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National: The Party of ‘Law and Order’ IntroductionThis weekend, the Government formally kicked off one of their flagship policy programs: a military style boot camp that New Zealand has experimented with over the past 50 years. Cartoon credit: Guy BodyIt’s very popular with the National Party’s Law and Orderimage, ...
Day one of the solo leg of my long journey home begins with my favourite sound: footfalls in an empty street. 5.00 am and it’s already light and already too warm, almost.If I can make the train that leaves Budapest later this hour I could be in Belgrade by nightfall; ...
Do you remember Y2K, the threat that hung over humanity in the closing days of the twentieth century? Horror scenarios of planes falling from the sky, electronic payments failing and ATMs refusing to dispense cash. As for your VCR following instructions and recording your favourite show - forget about it.All ...
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts being questioned by The Kākā’s Bernard Hickey.TL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 20 were:1. A strategy that fails Zero Carbon Act & Paris targetsThe National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government finally unveiled ...
Summary:As New Zealand loses at least 12 leaders in the public service space of health, climate, and pharmaceuticals, this month alone, directly in response to the Government’s policies and budget choices, what lies ahead may be darker than it appears. Tui examines some of those departures and draws a long ...
The Minister of Housing’s ambition is to reduce markedly the ratio of house prices to household incomes. If his strategy works it would transform the housing market, dramatically changing the prospects of housing as an investment.Leaving aside the Minister’s metaphor of ‘flooding the market’ I do not see how the ...
As previously noted, my historical fantasy piece, set in the fifth-century Mediterranean, was accepted for a Pirate Horror anthology, only for the anthology to later fall through. But in a good bit of news, it turned out that the story could indeed be re-marketed as sword and sorcery. As of ...
An employee of tobacco company Philip Morris International demonstrates a heated tobacco device. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Friday, July 19 are:At a time when the Coalition Government is cutting spending on health, infrastructure, education, housing ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 8:30 am on Friday, July 19 are:Scoop: NZ First Minister Casey Costello orders 50% cut to excise tax on heated tobacco products. The minister has ...
Kia ora, it’s time for another Friday roundup, in which we pull together some of the links and stories that caught our eye this week. Feel free to add more in the comments! Our header image this week shows a foggy day in Auckland town, captured by Patrick Reynolds. ...
TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. A discussion recorded yesterday is in the video above and the audio of that sent onto the podcast feed.The Government released its draft Emissions Reduction ...
Save some money, get rich and old, bring it back to Tobacco Road.Bring that dynamite and a crane, blow it up, start all over again.Roll up. Roll up. Or tailor made, if you prefer...Whether you’re selling ciggies, digging for gold, catching dolphins in your nets, or encouraging folks to flutter ...
Waiting In The Wings:For truly, if Trump is America’s un-assassinated Caesar, then J.D. Vance is America’s Octavian, the Republic’s youthful undertaker – and its first Emperor.DONALD TRUMP’S SELECTION of James D. Vance as his running-mate bodes ill for the American republic. A fervent supporter of Viktor Orban, the “illiberal” prime ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 19, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:The PSAannounced the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) had ruled in the PSA’s favour in its case against the Ministry ...
Te Rangi e tu nei (The sky above us) Te Papa e takoto nei (The land beneath us) Tatou katoa te hunga ora (To us all the living) Tena koutou katoa (Greetings) ...
A late change to charter school legislation will cheat educators out of fair pay and negotiating power proving charter schools are just a vehicle to make profit out of our education system. ...
In 2004 te iwi Māori rallied against the Crown’s attempt to confiscate our coastlines and moana with the Foreshore and Seabed Act. This led to the largest hīkoi of a generation and the birth of Te Pāti Māori. 20 years later, history is repeating itself. Today the government has announced ...
It has been five and a half years since the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care was established to investigate the abuse of children, young people, and vulnerable adults within state and faith-based institutions. Yesterday, the final report - Whanaketia through pain and trauma, from darkness to light ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to take action off the back of the International Court of Justice ruling on Israel’s illegal occupation of Palestine. ...
On Friday the International Court of Justice reaffirmed what Palestinian’s have been telling us for decades: that the occupation and colonisation of Palestinian lands by Israel is illegal and must end immediately. They also called for reparations for Palestinian’s who have lived under Israeli occupation since it began in 1967. ...
Labour calls on the Government to act after the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that Israel’s occupation of Palestinian Territories is illegal. ...
The 53.7 percent rise in benefit sanctions over the last year is more proof of this Government’s disdain for our communities most in need of support. ...
Aotearoa could be a country where every child grows up feeling safe, loved and with a sense of belonging in their whānau and community. But for some of our children, this is far from reality. Instead, they are trapped in a maze of intergenerational harm that they can’t escape on ...
Te Pāti Māori are calling for David Seymour to resign as Associate Health Minister in response to his call for Pharmac to ignore the Treaty of Waitangi. “This announcement is just another example of the government’s anti-Tiriti, anti-Māori agenda.” Said Co-leader and spokesperson for health, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. “Seymour thinks it ...
The soaring price of renting is driving the rise of inflation in this country - with latest figures from Stats NZ showing rents are up 4.8 per cent on average while annual inflation is at 3.3 per cent. ...
National’s Emissions Reduction Plan will take New Zealand further from the economy we need to ensure the next generation has a stable climate and secure livelihoods. ...
Following consultation with named parties and thorough consideration of privacy interests, the Green Party is in a position to release the Executive Summary of the final report from the independent investigation into Darleen Tana. ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon should be asking serious questions of his Minister for Resources Shane Jones now it’s been revealed he misled the public about a dinner with mining companies that he didn’t declare and said wasn’t pre-arranged. ...
Te Pāti Māori have submitted to the Justice Select Committee against the Sentencing (Reinstating Three Strikes) Amendment Bill. The bill will further entrench racism in our justice system and fails to focus on rehabilitation. “Reinstating Three Strikes will empower a systematically racist system and exacerbate the overrepresentation of Māori in ...
The Transport and Infrastructure Committee is set to make a determination on the Residential Tenancies Amendment (RTA) Bill in the coming weeks. “This legislation will give landlords the power to kick our whānau out onto the street for no reason” said Housing spokesperson, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “Their solution to the housing ...
“National’s campaign was about tackling crime and the best they can do is a two-year long Ministerial Advisory Group,” Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said. ...
“There are more examples of charter schools failing their students than there are success stories. The coalition Government is driving to dismantle our public school system and instead promote a privatised, competitive structure that puts profits before kids,” Jan Tinetti said. ...
“This government is choosing to deliberately mislead and withhold information, keeping our people in the dark about this government’s agenda and the future of our mokopuna,” said co-leader and spokesperson for Health, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. The call comes after the demand from the Chief Ombudsman that Associate Minister of Health, Casey ...
“Today’s climate announcement by Simon Watts makes clear the National Government is simply paying lip service to meeting its climate change targets,” Megan Woods said. ...
National is choosing to make life harder for workers by taking away the rights our communities have fought hard for. Here's how they’re taking workers backwards. ...
Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on the need for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and the risk of expanded conflict between Hizballah and Israel. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The human suffering is unacceptable. It cannot continue. We remain unequivocal in our condemnation of ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today reminded all State and faith-based institutions of their legal obligation to preserve records relevant to the safety and wellbeing of those in its care. “The Abuse in Care Inquiry’s report has found cases where records of the most vulnerable people in State and faith‑based institutions were ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government’s online safety website for children and young people has reached one million page views. “It is great to see so many young people and their families accessing the site Keep It Real Online to learn how to stay safe online, and manage ...
Tēnā tātou katoa, Ngā mihi te rangi, ngā mihi te whenua, ngā mihi ki a koutou, kia ora mai koutou. Thank you for the opportunity to be here and the invitation to speak at this 50th anniversary conference. I acknowledge all those who have gone before us and paved the ...
New Zealand’s payroll providers have successfully prepared to ensure 3.5 million individuals will, from Wednesday next week, be able to keep more of what they earn each pay, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Revenue Minister Simon Watts. “The Government's tax policy changes are legally effective from Wednesday. Delivering this tax ...
An experimental vineyard which will help futureproof the wine sector has been opened in Blenheim by Associate Regional Development Minister Mark Patterson. The covered vineyard, based at the New Zealand Wine Centre – Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa, enables controlled environmental conditions. “The research that will be produced at the Experimental ...
The Coalition Government has confirmed the indicative regional breakdown of North Island Weather Event (NIWE) funding for state highway recovery projects funded through Budget 2024, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Regions in the North Island suffered extensive and devastating damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Floods, and ...
Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, will visit New Zealand next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced. “Indonesia is important to New Zealand’s security and economic interests and is our closest South East Asian neighbour,” says Mr Peters, who is currently in Laos to engage with South East Asian partners. ...
He aha te kai a te rangatira? He kōrero, he kōrero, he kōrero. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the aspirations of Ngāti Maniapoto, Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka says. “My thanks to Te Nehenehenui Trust – Ngāti Maniapoto for bringing their important kōrero to a ministerial ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has thanked outgoing Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority, Janice Fredric, for her service to the board.“I have received Ms Fredric’s resignation from the role of Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority,” Mr Brown says.“On behalf of the Government, I want to thank Ms Fredric for ...
The Government is proposing legislation to overturn a Court of Appeal decision and amend the Marine and Coastal Area Act in order to restore Parliament’s test for Customary Marine Title, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “Section 58 required an applicant group to prove they have exclusively used and occupied ...
Regulation Minister David Seymour says that opposition parties have united in bad faith, opposing what they claim are ‘dangerous changes’ to the Early Childhood Education sector, despite no changes even being proposed yet. “Issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation, has led ...
After receiving more than 740 submissions in the first 20 days, Regulation Minister David Seymour is asking the Ministry for Regulation to extend engagement on the early childhood education regulation review by an extra two weeks. “The level of interest has been very high, and from the conversations I’ve been ...
The Coalition Government is investing $802.9 million into the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines as part of a funding agreement with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, and the Greater Wellington and Horizons Regional Councils to deliver more reliable services for commuters in the lower North Island, Transport Minister Simeon ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced his intention to appoint a Crown Manager to both Hawke’s Bay Regional and Wairoa District Councils to speed up the delivery of flood protection work in Wairoa."Recent severe weather events in Wairoa this year, combined with damage from Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have ...
Mr Speaker, this is a day that many New Zealanders who were abused in State care never thought would come. It’s the day that this Parliament accepts, with deep sorrow and regret, the Report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care. At the heart of this report are the ...
For the first time, the Government is formally acknowledging some children and young people at Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital experienced torture. The final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care “Whanaketia – through pain and trauma, from darkness to light,” was tabled in Parliament ...
The Government has acknowledged the nearly 2,400 courageous survivors who shared their experiences during the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse in State and Faith-Based Care. The final report from the largest and most complex public inquiry ever held in New Zealand, the Royal Commission Inquiry “Whanaketia – through ...
With a week to go before hard-working New Zealanders see personal income tax relief for the first time in fourteen years, 513,000 people have used the Budget tax calculator to see how much they will benefit, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis. “Tax relief is long overdue. From next Wednesday, personal income ...
Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says a bill that has passed its first reading will improve parental leave settings and give non-biological parents more flexibility as primary carer for their child. The Regulatory Systems Amendment Bill (No3), passed its first reading this morning. “It includes a change ...
Two Bills designed to improve regulation and make it easier to do business have passed their first reading in Parliament, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. The Regulatory Systems (Economic Development) Amendment Bill and Regulatory Systems (Immigration and Workforce) Amendment Bill make key changes to legislation administered by the Ministry ...
New legislation paves the way for greater competition in sectors such as banking and electricity, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Competitive markets boost productivity, create employment opportunities and lift living standards. To support competition, we need good quality regulation but, unfortunately, a recent OECD report ranked New ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says lotteries for charitable purposes, such as those run by the Heart Foundation, Coastguard NZ, and local hospices, will soon be allowed to operate online permanently. “Under current laws, these fundraising lotteries are only allowed to operate online until October 2024, after which ...
The Coalition Government is accelerating work on the new four-lane expressway between Auckland and Whangārei as part of its Roads of National Significance programme, with an accelerated delivery model to deliver this project faster and more efficiently, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “For too long, the lack of resilient transport connections ...
Sir Don McKinnon will travel to Viet Nam this week as a Special Envoy of the Government, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced. “It is important that the Government give due recognition to the significant contributions that General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong made to New Zealand-Viet Nam relations,” Mr ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says newly appointed Commissioner, Grant Illingworth KC, will help deliver the report for the first phase of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons, due on 28 November 2024. “I am pleased to announce that Mr Illingworth will commence his appointment as ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters travels to Laos this week to participate in a series of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-led Ministerial meetings in Vientiane. “ASEAN plays an important role in supporting a peaceful, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” Mr Peters says. “This will be our third visit to ...
Construction of a new mental health facility at Te Nikau Grey Hospital in Greymouth is today one step closer, Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “This $27 million facility shows this Government is delivering on its promise to boost mental health care and improve front line services,” Mr Doocey says. ...
New Zealand is committing nearly $50 million to a package supporting sustainable Pacific fisheries development over the next four years, Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones announced today. “This support consisting of a range of initiatives demonstrates New Zealand’s commitment to assisting our Pacific partners ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour says proposed changes to the Education and Training Amendment Bill will ensure charter schools have more flexibility to negotiate employment agreements and are equipped with the right teaching resources. “Cabinet has agreed to progress an amendment which means unions will not be able to initiate ...
In response to serious concerns around oversight, overspend and a significant deterioration in financial outlook, the Board of Health New Zealand will be replaced with a Commissioner, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti announced today. “The previous government’s botched health reforms have created significant financial challenges at Health NZ that, without ...
Minister for Space and Science, Innovation and Technology Judith Collins will travel to Adelaide tomorrow for space and science engagements, including speaking at the Australian Space Forum. While there she will also have meetings and visits with a focus on space, biotechnology and innovation. “New Zealand has a thriving space ...
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts will travel to China on Saturday to attend the Ministerial on Climate Action meeting held in Wuhan. “Attending the Ministerial on Climate Action is an opportunity to advocate for New Zealand climate priorities and engage with our key partners on climate action,” Mr Watts says. ...
Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is travelling to the Solomon Islands tomorrow for meetings with his counterparts from around the Pacific supporting collective management of the region’s fisheries. The 23rd Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Committee and the 5th Regional Fisheries Ministers’ Meeting in Honiara from 23 to 26 July ...
The Government today launched the Military Style Academy Pilot at Te Au rere a te Tonga Youth Justice residence in Palmerston North, an important part of the Government’s plan to crackdown on youth crime and getting youth offenders back on track, Minister for Children, Karen Chhour said today. “On the ...
The Government has welcomed news the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has begun work to replace nine priority bridges across the country to ensure our state highway network remains resilient, reliable, and efficient for road users, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“Increasing productivity and economic growth is a key priority for the ...
Acting Prime Minister David Seymour has been in contact throughout the evening with senior officials who have coordinated a whole of government response to the global IT outage and can provide an update. The Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet has designated the National Emergency Management Agency as the ...
New Zealand and Japan will continue to step up their shared engagement with the Pacific, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “New Zealand and Japan have a strong, shared interest in a free, open and stable Pacific Islands region,” Mr Peters says. “We are pleased to be finding more ways ...
New developments in the heart of North Island forestry country will reinvigorate their communities and boost economic development, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones visited Kaingaroa and Kawerau in Bay of Plenty today to open a landmark community centre in the former and a new connecting road in ...
President Adeang, fellow Ministers, honourable Diet Member Horii, Ambassadors, distinguished guests. Minasama, konnichiwa, and good afternoon, everyone. Distinguished guests, it’s a pleasure to be here with you today to talk about New Zealand’s foreign policy reset, the reasons for it, the values that underpin it, and how it ...
Last summer when Matairangi burned, Ginny and Tom stood at the window of their lounge, watching kākā shoot skyward from the burning trees. From the distance, they looked to Ginny like pages torn from books and thrown into a bonfire. It was Tom, voice tight, who told her it was ...
Opinion: The Canadian short story writer Alice Munro – winner of the Nobel Prize in Literature in 2013 – died in May at the age of 92. Her work was about “the damage people inflict on one another in the name of love”, Deborah Treisman wrote in the New Yorker. ...
This month marks two years since the most powerful telescope ever built sent its first pictures back to earth. From its lofty vantage point, beyond the moon in orbit around the sun, the James Webb Space Telescope was tuned to observe the first stars and galaxies being born soon after ...
Comment: After Climate Change Minister Simon Watts’ preview several weeks ago, I had some optimism about the Government’s emissions reduction plan. Now I’ve read the discussion document, that hope has been dashed. How can the Government propose a plan that wants to take New Zealand taxpayers’ hard-earned money, and spend ...
Christopher Luxon: hurdles The little man from National jumps hurdles in his sleep. He’s quite good at it in his dreams and even though the reality doesn’t quite match up you have to give him credit for getting up every morning and crashing into the very first hurdle of the ...
Comment: It was a good two hours into the conversation when Tyrone Marks raised the most basic of questions when I first spoke to him in 2017. “They didn’t explain the things they did to me. They never told me why. And they still haven’t. There’s no explanation for it. ...
Madeleine Chapman rounds out Death Week on The Spinoff with a final recommendation. You can read all of our Death Week coverage here. Nothing forces you to reflect on your life and relationships quite like proximity to death. For those whose nearest and dearest have died, there are reasonably obvious ...
Whitney Greene takes us through her life in television, including the TV character she’d like to plan a funeral for and her cow lung catastrophe on The Traitors NZ. “If the phone rings, I have to answer it,” Whitney Greene from The Traitors NZ warns as we begin our My ...
Maddie Ballard reviews the debut essay collection of Pōneke writer Flora Feltham.In ‘The Raw Material’, the longest essay in Flora Feltham’s dazzling debut collection, the author heads out for a run after hours of weaving and sees the world turn to textile. “Pounding along the Parade, I saw the ...
Andy Christiansen, one half of the experimental rock-pop duo TRiPS, shares the tunes inspiring the band’s perfect weekend and new release. “Good speakers, good food, good music, no distractions”: that’s all you need to enjoy the psychedelic stylings of TRiPS, a new band formed by Fly My Pretties’ Barnaby Weir ...
Celebrating our quadrennial opportunity to become experts in a bunch of sports we never normally watch.The games of the XXXIII Olympiad are upon us. Paris will host this year’s showcase of sporting and athletic prowess, which means some late-night and early-morning viewing for us in Aotearoa.But what sports ...
The photograph is striking and beautiful, but also disturbing – a reminder that my love for John was often entangled in shame.The Sunday Essay is made possible thanks to the support of Creative New Zealand.In the spring of 1980, in Dunedin, shortly before his death, someone took a photograph ...
Get to know Babushka, our latest Dog of the Month. This feature was offered as a reward during our What’s Eating Aotearoa PledgeMe campaign. Thank you to Babu’s humans, Jo and Isabel, for their support. Dog name: Babushka (Babu for short) Age: 2Breed: Border Collie X poodleIf rescued, ...
Pacific Media Watch A Lebanese photojournalist who was severely wounded during an Israeli air strike in south Lebanon carried the Olympic torch in Paris this week in honour of her peers who have been wounded and killed in the field — especially in Gaza and Lebanon. Christina Assi of Agence ...
The first report in a five-part web series focused on the 15th Triennial Conference of Pacific Women taking place in the Marshall Islands this week.SPECIAL REPORT:By Netani Rika in Majuro Women continue to fight for justice 70 years after the first nuclear tests by the United States caused ...
Christopher Luxon has joined with Australia and Canada's leaders in voicing support for US President Joe Biden's ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The 2022 election brought the “teal wave” into parliament. The next election will test whether teals, who occupy what were Liberal seats, and other independents can maintain their momentum. Joining us on the Podcast ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Musgrave, Senior lecturer in Pharmacology, University of Adelaide Pixavri/Shutterstock A major Federal Court class action has been dismissed this week after Justice Michael Lee ruled there was not enough evidence to prove the weedkiller Roundup causes cancer. Plaintiff Kelvin ...
In The Week in Politics: politicians have to decide what to do about child abuse, Health NZ is booked in for major surgery and Darleen Tana returns. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Corbould, Associate Professor, Contemporary Histories Research Group, Deakin University Mainstream media are surprisingly muted at the prospect of the world’s most powerful nation being led for the first time by a woman – specifically a woman of colour, Vice President Kamala ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca Bennett, PhD Student, Associate Research Fellow, Deakin University Last week, a drone delivery company called Wing (owned by Google’s parent company, Alphabet) started operating in Melbourne. Some 250,000 residents in parts of the city’s eastern suburbs can now order food from ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonathan Foo, Lecturer, Physiotherapy, Monash University pikselstock/Shutterstock In the next 40 years in Australia, it’s predicted the number of Australians aged 65 and over will more than double, while the number of people aged 85 and over will more than triple. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katrina Grant, Research Associate, Power Institute for Arts and Visual Culture, University of Sydney Jonas Åkerström’s 1790 work, Session of the Accademia dell’Arcadia on August 17 1788.Nationalmuseum/Cecilia Heisser Ever wondered whether you’d have a better chance at winning an Olympic gold ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexandra Jones, Program Lead, Food Governance, George Institute for Global Health wavebreakmedia/Shutterstock On Thursday, Australian and New Zealand food ministers at state, federal and national levels met to thrash out what’s next for health star ratings on packaged foods. Now, after ...
The Abuse in Care report found many Pacific survivors lost their connections to their culture and language, resulting in trauma that has been carried from generation to generation. ...
In the regulatory review, ECC intends to suggest that ERO focus on curriculum delivery reviews rather than the Ministry, because it’s not efficient or effective to have two agencies with radically different approaches climbing over each other. ...
Te Rūnanga Nui o Ngā Kura Kaupapa Māori invites the current government to work in partnership with them to develop a pathway forward, including the development of a parallel pathway and meaningful policy and strategy for Kura Kaupapa Māori ...
If you haven’t started watching yet, Tara Ward begs you to reconsider. This is an excerpt from our weekly pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here. In the world of New Zealand reality television, we have many gems in our crown. There’s the delicious second season of the Celebrity Treasure ...
A new poem by Fiona Kidman. The clothes of the dead I did not keep my mother’s furry red beret for long nor the stringy scarves that adorned the necks of my aunts, although I have kept tag ends of gold, the rings and trinkets they wore, the brooches no ...
The government’s announcement that it will re-open the foreshore and seabed controversy by changing the rules on recognising centuries-old Māori customary title for a third time goes against the rule of law and New Zealand values,” Mr Tipa says. ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Lioness by Emily Perkins (Bloomsbury, $25) Roarrrr! Perkins’ brilliant, award-winning, Marian-Keyes anointed, darkly funny, long ...
The 2004 Act vested ownership of the foreshore and seabed in the Crown, extinguishing any Māori claims to ownership and causing widespread outrage and protests among Māori communities. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Antje Deckert, Associate Professor (Criminology), Auckland University of Technology Getty Images Despite the connection between institutional harm and gang membership made clear in this week’s mammoth royal commission abuse-in care report, the government seems unlikely to soften its “get tough on ...
From Lewis Clareburt in the swimming to the start of the rowing – the first seven days of Paris 2024 promise to be big for New Zealand. There are few events that bring the country together quite like an Olympic Games. Nothing quite matches the excitement of getting up in ...
Groundbreaking local science just showed up in the most surprising of places: the season finale of The Kardashians. In the season five finale of The Kardashians last night, several members of the family gathered together in one of their signature empty, cream-coloured rooms to hear test results that had been ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amin Saikal, Emeritus professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies, Australian National University The Middle East is on the brink of a possibly devastating regional war, with hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah reaching an extremely dangerous level. Washington has engaged in ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Elizabeth Eades, Rheumatologist, Monash University Lupus is an inflammatory autoimmune illness, where the body’s immune system mistakenly attacks itself. Lupus can affect virtually any part of the body, although it most commonly affects the skin, joints and kidneys. The symptoms ...
A law firm that specialises in working with survivors of abuse in State care is disappointed that the Government fails to recognise that its boot camps can be directly compared to previous boot camps from the 1990s and 2000s. ...
Dying is a natural part of life, like updating your Wof or seeing your hairdresser, but without the word-of-mouth recs that help guarantee a good service. What if we changed that? Dying Reviews received by The Spinoff have had the names of organisations redacted while Hospice NZ collects further data. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonti Horner, Professor (Astrophysics), University of Southern Queensland Mike Lewinski/Flickr, CC BY On any clear night, if you gaze skywards long enough, chances are you’ll see a meteor streaking through the sky. Some nights, however, are better than others. At ...
Despite having no bars or other designated spaces for lesbians, Auckland boasts a small but mighty lesbian museum. So how did it get here? The past 18 months has brought increasing hostility towards the queer community across Aotearoa. Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull’s anti-trans rally in Tamaki Makaurau last March led to a ...
Poneke Antifascist Coalition has invited Wellingtonians to stand in solidarity with the Kanak people at 12pm today outside the French Embassy in Wellington. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Layton, Visiting Fellow, Strategic Studies, Griffith University Drones are the signature technology of the Ukraine war. A few miniature aircraft designs were used in the war’s early days, but an incredible array of drones have now evolved. There are different types, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Slee, Associate Professor, Clinical Academic Neurologist, Flinders University Francisco Gonzelez/Unsplash Migraine is many things, but one thing it’s not is “just a headache”. “Migraine” comes from the Greek word “hemicrania”, referring to the common experience of migraine being predominantly ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lee White, Senior Lecturer and Horizon Fellow, School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Sydney Australia was slow to introduce minimum building standards for energy efficiency. The Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme (NatHERS) only came into force in 2003. Older homes ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steven Sherwood, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney The past century of human-induced warming has increased rainfall variability over 75% of the Earth’s land area – particularly over Australia, Europe and eastern North America, new research shows. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tony Heynen, Program Coordinator, Sustainable Energy, The University of Queensland A temporary stadium in the Champ-de-Mars, ParisEkaterina Pokrovsky/Shutterstock As Paris prepares to host the Olympic and Paralympic Games, the sustainability of the event is coming under scrutiny. The organisers have promoted ...
A night of karaoke and community in a pub that feels like a memory. You’d barely even notice it, unless you knew to look. Tucked away behind a liquor store on busy Constable Street is the capital’s last great pub. Newtown Sports Bar is an emblem of the pub culture ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Wright, Professor in Marine Geology, University of Canterbury Louise Corcoran/Getty Images The decline in the number of doctoral candidates at New Zealand universities is a worrying sign for the country’s effort to build a knowledge-based economy. Aotearoa New Zealand’s ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laurie Berg, Associate Professor, University of Technology Sydney defotoberg/Shutterstock Migrant worker exploitation is entrenched in workplaces across Australia. Tragically, a deep fear of immigration consequences means most unlawful employer conduct goes unreported. On Wednesday, however, the government officially launched a ...
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This should be front page news and linked directly to John Key.
What does Key have to say about it? I mean currency trade is supposed to be about support of trade etc, however it is quite clear that near 95% of currency trade is 100% pure speculation.
Talk about non-productive shit.
The chart doesn’t tell us where “invisibles” come. In the left block or the right block. Assuming they are in the right block then we don’t know how much of that block is actual speculation.
‘This should be front page news and linked directly to John Key.’
You have got to be dreaming!
The prime function of the corporate-owned media is to keep all fundamental truths well hidden and keep the proles distracted with trivia. And make a profit out of it.
99% of the populace don’t even realise: they actually pay money to be distracted and misinformed. That’s how successful the corporate misinformation system is.
Perhaps you can suggest that the next left led government could set up a ministry for truth so that the ‘correct’ view of the world can be put forward.
Yes.
Actually, re-introducing not for profit news media media channels would do it.
“Back in reality” was for Gos, not you btw. Public news channels are definitely needed.
Back in reality, giving bodies like the BSA a few more teeth to deal with the accuracy of reporting mightn’t be a bad idea.
Even when there is truth, knowledge that is generated from robust academic research the current government choose not to believe it and do the opposite of what is recommended!
Except that this, like the media, leaves out a huge amount of information. A lot of the media isn’t corporately owned, it’s publically funded, and it certainly isn’t all right-wing.
Nice chart. Whats the source, be interested to know if there is any historical information available (ie, would like to look at how its changed over the last few years)
Why else would Key say you can do nothing , as a former currency trader thats what they want.
The small margins on huge speculative flows and the ‘carriage’ trade are what he made his fortune on. Being paid massive bonuses based on the profit for his company.
I see an opening for Winston Peters here, as Labour sits on its hands regarding currency speculation.
Its right up Peters street to rail against the ‘big money speculators’ and the effect its having on average kiwis. Watch this space
New Zealand used to strictly control the currency by setting it’s value against the US Dollar. That didn’t stop the speculators causing a run against it in 1984.
You just need to look at Zimbabwe, (where currency speculation was made illegal pre 2008), to see what would happen if you attempted to do something similar here.
You can’t eliminate a market were there is a need for it.
Yeah right again Gossip Man telling porkies again . make it up as you go Gossman. its hardly wort replying to BS Zimbabwe was a totally different scenario nothing faintly similar to NZ 1984 .You say you have worked for different investment banks what as cleaner or tea lady.Muldoon was playing games with the opposition while they were waiting in the wings. Muldoom borrowed and hoped us into a corner not unlike Bill English and Roger Douglas.Zimbabwe lost most of its productive sector and there were to few goods in the market due to his nihilistic behavior .The opposite was true of Muldoon we had to many goods and couldn’t sell them. Goossman your under standing is a joke your claims to have worked for big investment banks is an even bigger joke!
You have no idea about what happened in Zimbabwe with regard the currency there do you mik e? Well that much is clear from your response.
So to educate you a little – what the Government there tried to do for a number of years, especially between 2000 and 2008 was to set the price of the Zimbabwe dollar, in essence to fix it.
The trouble was the dollar is only worth what the market is willing to pay for it, not what a Government official decides it is worth.
Zimbabwe found that out the hard way when the official market dried up and people took their money to the black market instead.
NZ learned a similar lesson in 1984 when Muldoon refused to let the market determine a more realistic value of the currency.
Which chart, the meaningless one at the top, or the electionresults one just underneath?
The top one has virtually no information so it’s impossible to tell what it relates to, the other is an “if the eelction was today” sort of scenario that also has limited meaning because if an election was today many people would be thinking differently about how they might vote.
So all your, (what would it be, dozens?), of comments about what the polls tell us are actually meaningless Pete?
i know it is bashing my head against a brick wall but a structure based on financial renumeration is no way to run an Election Poll. I-Predict is a stock exchange. People have a commercial interest in the results. If that does not skew the content then i don’t know what would. How can it be at all accurate when people always will, always can and always do manipulate stocks to make money.
It might be fun for those taking part but being touted around the place as a poll device to show how voters may or may not be behaving is not what we need when trying to kick a Trader out of office.
So make some money by betting against the bias in the market. It would seem to be a no brainer but one which lefties seem to fail to grasp.
Gosman, there is a popular starfish who is less obtuse than you
that is why i am saying it is an unreliable tool for reporting polling, d’uh
You don’t understand the market do you?
The value of these things are dependent on the real event. Hence if it is totally skewed because of the bias you claim exists then it would be easy to make a killing by basing your bets on what you think the actual reality is.
“make a killing”
what by inflating the value of our dollar to the point that our real tech exporters whither and die?
Thanks, but the NZD should not be used as just another chip in the ludicrous world finance casino.
He’s explained his point twice now Gos. Please read it this time.
Ummm… his point, if I read him correctly, is that I-predict is bollox because of the underlying bias of the people in the market. However if there does exist such a bias, as the basis of the market is real world outcomes, it would be easy to make money by betting against the market.
For example if I-predict is suggesting that National will win the election by 10 percentage points and you think this is bollox and as a result of inbuilt bias then bet that it will be less than that or even that Labour will win. you will get quite good rate on that and therefore make a nice tidy sum.
Now what is so hard for you to understand about that?
“Ummm… his point, if I read him correctly, is that I-predict is bollox because of the underlying bias of the people in the market.”
Then no, you don’t understand his point correctly. Have another crack at it.
And this time, read the words first then figure out what’s being said.
How abou you, (or freedom) tell me what the point is because –
“I-Predict is a stock exchange. People have a commercial interest in the results. If that does not skew the content then i don’t know what would. How can it be at all accurate when people always will, always can and always do manipulate stocks to make money.”
Seems to indicate pretty clearly that freedom was trying to claim that I-predict is inaccurate because of the nature of the people engaged in the market.
Where in that passage is there anything remotely suggesting something other than what I have suggested it means?
I don’t see anything there about a bias in the market. Try again.
Ummmm….. freedom was trying to state the I-predict market doesn’t relect reality because of this manipulation – that means the market is biased.
Not sure if ‘biased’ is the right word, but its certainly not a ‘free market’ in terms of transparency or efficiency 🙂
No Gos, not in the way you’re implying.
So felix explain exactly what freedom’s point was if not stating that I-predict is a biased market (i.e. one which reflects more a particular view of a select number of market participants rather than the underlying reality).
Here’s what you said, Gos: (you don’t mind, do you?)
Stop yer wriggling and read it fer yerself.
You have till to tell me what freedom’s point was if not that I-Predict does not reflect reality because of the underlying bias of people in that market to attempt to manipulate it for financial ends.
So what was his point felix?
Oh ffs you’re never going to get it on your own, are you?
The money isn’t made and lost according to any “real event” as you put it, that’s for the suckers.
The money is made on the way up and on the way down. Movement is all that matters.
It’s not real Gos. You’re either being taken for a ride or you’re trying to pull the wool. Either way you’re full of shit.
So please explain how all that is reflected in freedom’s statement “How can it [i.e. I-predict] be at all accurate when people always will, always can and always do manipulate stocks to make money”?
It seems quite clear from that single sentence that freedom doesn’t think I-predict is an accurate reflection of the underlying reality.
Which was exactly my point. If freedom doesn’t think this then take advantage of this fact and place bets that more accurately reflects reality.
Gosman.
I will use small words ok.
It is a Stock Market -so it is flawed as a device for polls.
stock-market:
An exchange where trading is conducted
poll:
An inquiry into public opinion conducted by interviewing a random sample of people
do you see the difference?
Then make money on this flaw.
It is quite simple really freedom. I-predict will pay out when something in the real world becomes more likely to happen. You sell as the event becomes more likely to happen and if you are correct then as more information comes to light then this will be reflected in the price.
You think it doesn’t reflect accurately the chance of this thing happening because of the way it has been baised by market participants in their efforts to make money.
However if it isn’t pricing correctly because of this reason it offers you and prime opportunity to make some cash by betting on something with better than even odds.
Let me put it another way for you using a real life example. Some people made a killing in Hong Kong horse race betting because to Chinese people cerain numbers are lucky and certain are unlucky. So Horses that had the number 8, (which I believe is very lucky), received more money than they may have warrented because of form. Hence if you had a good betting strategy you could beat the market.
Why bother gambling? Who cares.
Life is a gamble lprent. Human activity is driven by risk and reward.
As for why freedom should care, essentially I was advising freedom to put the money where the writing skills were. If what freedom was stating was correct then I-predict is a market ripe to be expolited by someone who takes advantage of the distortions.
Oh I agree that it is a shallow market that would be easy to exploit. My point was that as a market it also carries no real meaning outside of making money. Why would I or freedom want to participate? That is why it is shallow – because it is designed for shallow people. You can tell – they show Act getting significiant vote… 😈
If I have time or effort or resources to expend on a political party then I can and do that directly. If I have something to say on the political process I can and do that directly as well.
For that matter if I want to support a company I often just go and work for them or directly buy their shares – many interesting companies aren’t listed in any market.
Ever since we have had a floating exchange rate specualtion in foreign exchange made up approx 95% of all FE trades. It is a zero sum game, the winners = the loosers.
We should put a tax on it as was suggested by the economist Tobin, ie the Tobin Tax.
Just desserts
The real lunacy of the modern Markets, be it crops, cash, diamonds or debt, is how the majority of trading now occurs with no human pause of consideration or thoughts of redress to the
ramifications of the investment. In times past a Trader’s house was a fancy restaurant that most would speak of in hush reverie and maybe get to see once or twice on those very special occassions that colour one’s life. They were always a busy place.
Friends and foes would gather, some arriving by ship, or plane, some by private car, some on public trains but all could walk in the gate knowing as long as the bill could be paid, they had as fair a chance as the next guy to get a table. The Traders were there to facilitate the transaction and it happened at the physically-constrained speed of the human. Even with the advent of digital technology into the markets, there was always a human to show the menu, take the order and deliver the desserts. The Trader may have slowed the course during a run on apple pie or softened a call for more baklava and pushed out a tiramisu, but not today.
Today the market is Algorithm. A monument to avarice. You get to look in through a slit in the wall and shout an order for a cheeseburger but never again will you see the front door. It doesn’t matter if you have a jacket & tie, there are no longer any tables open in the dining room. If you are quick and don’t mind the smell, there are some spots on the back terrace by the bins.
Your experience of the party is now well and truly that of an outsider.
Inside, Crab Platters of digital delectations are being cracked crunched chomped swallowed and excreted before the Human Trader even saw the option was on the table.
Do you want fries with that?
What are you on freedom?
When was this supposed magical happy time when people visited a traders luxury appointed house to spend a few memorable and life changing moments?
its a bloody analogy. Way to ruin a creative day you pinhead.
For Gosman: or, Comprehension for toddlers
In days past if you had a few bucks you could trade and people controlled the trades. Now if you have a few bucks you have a computer trading autonomously for you.
You really have no idea about the history of the market do you.
Markets have tended to be loud, messy, busy places where people shout and jostle and attempt to get the best deals for themselves. You just need to look at market places in third world nations to realise that.
In short your polyyannaish world never existed.
Methinks you confuse a useful thing such as a market with a useless thing such as a a casino. Anybody working in a market will tell you it works best in a win win fair trade scenario where something useful changes hands. A casino on the other hand pits you on an all or nothing win lose scenario.
No I think you mistake a market for a bureaucratic clearing house.
Markets are whatever people want them to be. Even if you attempt to control them or make them illegal they will still exist in whatever form the people involved in them want.
That is why Socialists could never, and can never, control the black market. I suspect you think the black market is a bad thing.
FFSake Gos, you are a total pillock. I work in markets. I do real business stuff in them, and I know speculation when I see it. Even do some. You get some real life stuff poked at you and you go off about beaurocrats….I never even mentioned them. Where did that tosh come from?
Then its the “socialist” call. FFSake again. I said markets were useful…sounds a very socialist statement dont you think? Thats just the point, you dont think.
Then the “black market” comment. Are you getting desparate?
Funny this is, capitalists can’t control black markets either.
Look what happened when the completely opaque, undisclosed, unregulated multi-trillion dollar black market in financial derivatives collapsed in 2008.
Threatened to take down the entire global economy.
Going to happen again in the next 6 months I’d say.
And lets not even talk about the market in illicit drugs in capitalist ol’ NZ.
Lesson: GOS has NO IDEA what he is talking about.
Why are you such a literal and close-minded individual ? I know that the world i sometimes allude to has never existed you complete moron, if it did do you think people like myself would bother to be fighting for one. Gosman you are without doubt one of the most obstinate children i have ever attempted to communicate with.
You talk of a free market that has never been free. You say you want a level playfield yet put the goalposts on a bank. You blather on about the wastrels that are the left and how they never amount to anything real. If real is the world that i see around us and that is all it will ever be, and that satisfies you then i despair for your heart Gosman, i really do.
So what was the point of raising the idea of times past when you now admit they never existed and doesn’t reflect the reality of the human condition when it comes to commercial interactions between two or more people?
Why didn’t you just state that was where you dream, (and it is a dream), humans could get to at some indeterminate time in the future?
Your analogy does highlight why left wing people never understand the market because they think they can tame and civilise human nature in some utopian vision of love and light.
Ahem.
Actually that’s why you have market regulations and rules; because Lefties know very well that human nature can be cruel and unkind to the vulnerable and powerless.
Of course its nothing to do with internal hyper inflation and the fact Zimbabwe has no productive sector . I suspect that the wheel barrows of cash got to much for them and they went back to bartering it was never going to work in a country like Zimbabwe using it as an example shows the futility of your argument!
Zimbabwe had a large non-agricultural productive sector mik e. It was the second largest in SADC until the early 2000. It was Zanu-PF’s policy of fixing the dollar, inefficient SOE’s, and excessive size of the Zimbabwe state that destroyed it and led to the Hyper inflation. Zanu-PF’s land grab starting in 2000 only accelerated the decline of what was already in a very parlous state.
Gos, much as I dont like the Zimmers business have you ever considered that what you were watching that lead to the hyper inflation was the ending of a century old invasion and imposed system? Perhaps the natives just got plain pissed off with it and did not care about the money and foreign interests reactions. To me it looks like a very high price to pay to get rid of invaders and their systems but who knows? Did you lose a farm?
Bored, economic collapse always occurs when the serfs and the coloureds get uppity.
Uh, not true, our real economy exporters have been slaughtered by the high dollar and the variability in our dollar.
Having our dollar >US60c has meant hundreds of thousands of jobs destroyed.
If we were smart like Singapore we would peg the dollar to a (secret) basket of foreign currencies and weight its movements to achieve our national economic goals.
For the speculators it is a zero sum game, the gains = the looses.
Sure I get that bit, but who gives a shit when the speculators create collateral carnage in the real economy and in real businesses?
btw I support a Tobin Tax or something very similar.
Let’s tax the fuckers. A Financial Trading Tax at ONLY one tenth of 1% on this figure would bring in $265 million a month or $3.18 billion a year. Although once instigated it would slow the trade down, so we wouldn’t get so much but at least the NZD would be at a sensible price, because at the current level it is going to send exporters to the wall and cost thousands of jobs.
But Adrian, the speculators are the “wealth creators” and randian heroes of the national economy. We mustn’t scare them away with nasty taxes,
Let’s cut public services so that they can drain our economy more, the little people won’t mind
Indeed sometimes the benefit of a new tax is not how much money it brings in, but the behaviours it incentivises.
Just like the CGT :mregreen:
Just about every other country is intervening in its currency using many different devices .China has no problem setting it currency so all its productive sectors can make a steady profit. The only ones that make a steady profit in New Zealand are the untaxed speculators . They are nothing but leaches on the productive sectors !New Zealand is one of the very few countries that allow the productive sector to be annihilated every time one of our sectors stars making a profit so hence we borrow more to keep the economy afloat which makes the currency more volatile
Sorry, but if you’re going to claim that someone is ‘profiting’ from the dollar, then you better include consumers, which is pretty much everyone. Oil would be at least a dollar more expensive if the USD were to fall by 30c, which would impact every good in the country. So consumers do benefit from the higher dollar too.
Just remember, it always go volatile just before the meltdown…
Zetetic – I am sure your graph is accurate but the point I think you are trying to make is wrong. It is the so-called speculators who keep the currency relatively stable. If there were no speculators, everytime Air New Zealand bought a new plane or Fonterra brought back dividends from its offshore investors, the currency would swing massively. The speculators means that such transactions don’t singificantly affect the value of the currency. This means, ironically, that real businesspeople – eg Air New Zealand, Fonterra, etc – can rely on the value of the currency much more than if the speculators weren’t involved. This seems a stretch at 88c but its still true!
Yes but our lefty friends on the whole don’t understand the benefit of having liquid markets Matthew.
To many of them all speculation is inherently evil and should be stamped out. Prices should be set at fair value and managed under the auspices of a benevolent and just Government agency.
That is a point he has, tangential and minor