This should be front page news and linked directly to John Key.
What does Key have to say about it? I mean currency trade is supposed to be about support of trade etc, however it is quite clear that near 95% of currency trade is 100% pure speculation.
The chart doesn’t tell us where “invisibles” come. In the left block or the right block. Assuming they are in the right block then we don’t know how much of that block is actual speculation.
‘This should be front page news and linked directly to John Key.’
You have got to be dreaming!
The prime function of the corporate-owned media is to keep all fundamental truths well hidden and keep the proles distracted with trivia. And make a profit out of it.
99% of the populace don’t even realise: they actually pay money to be distracted and misinformed. That’s how successful the corporate misinformation system is.
Perhaps you can suggest that the next left led government could set up a ministry for truth so that the ‘correct’ view of the world can be put forward.
Even when there is truth, knowledge that is generated from robust academic research the current government choose not to believe it and do the opposite of what is recommended!
Except that this, like the media, leaves out a huge amount of information. A lot of the media isn’t corporately owned, it’s publically funded, and it certainly isn’t all right-wing.
Nice chart. Whats the source, be interested to know if there is any historical information available (ie, would like to look at how its changed over the last few years)
Why else would Key say you can do nothing , as a former currency trader thats what they want.
The small margins on huge speculative flows and the ‘carriage’ trade are what he made his fortune on. Being paid massive bonuses based on the profit for his company.
I see an opening for Winston Peters here, as Labour sits on its hands regarding currency speculation.
Its right up Peters street to rail against the ‘big money speculators’ and the effect its having on average kiwis. Watch this space
New Zealand used to strictly control the currency by setting it’s value against the US Dollar. That didn’t stop the speculators causing a run against it in 1984.
You just need to look at Zimbabwe, (where currency speculation was made illegal pre 2008), to see what would happen if you attempted to do something similar here.
You can’t eliminate a market were there is a need for it.
Yeah right again Gossip Man telling porkies again . make it up as you go Gossman. its hardly wort replying to BS Zimbabwe was a totally different scenario nothing faintly similar to NZ 1984 .You say you have worked for different investment banks what as cleaner or tea lady.Muldoon was playing games with the opposition while they were waiting in the wings. Muldoom borrowed and hoped us into a corner not unlike Bill English and Roger Douglas.Zimbabwe lost most of its productive sector and there were to few goods in the market due to his nihilistic behavior .The opposite was true of Muldoon we had to many goods and couldn’t sell them. Goossman your under standing is a joke your claims to have worked for big investment banks is an even bigger joke!
You have no idea about what happened in Zimbabwe with regard the currency there do you mik e? Well that much is clear from your response.
So to educate you a little – what the Government there tried to do for a number of years, especially between 2000 and 2008 was to set the price of the Zimbabwe dollar, in essence to fix it.
The trouble was the dollar is only worth what the market is willing to pay for it, not what a Government official decides it is worth.
Zimbabwe found that out the hard way when the official market dried up and people took their money to the black market instead.
NZ learned a similar lesson in 1984 when Muldoon refused to let the market determine a more realistic value of the currency.
Which chart, the meaningless one at the top, or the electionresults one just underneath?
The top one has virtually no information so it’s impossible to tell what it relates to, the other is an “if the eelction was today” sort of scenario that also has limited meaning because if an election was today many people would be thinking differently about how they might vote.
i know it is bashing my head against a brick wall but a structure based on financial renumeration is no way to run an Election Poll. I-Predict is a stock exchange. People have a commercial interest in the results. If that does not skew the content then i don’t know what would. How can it be at all accurate when people always will, always can and always do manipulate stocks to make money.
It might be fun for those taking part but being touted around the place as a poll device to show how voters may or may not be behaving is not what we need when trying to kick a Trader out of office.
The value of these things are dependent on the real event. Hence if it is totally skewed because of the bias you claim exists then it would be easy to make a killing by basing your bets on what you think the actual reality is.
Ummm… his point, if I read him correctly, is that I-predict is bollox because of the underlying bias of the people in the market. However if there does exist such a bias, as the basis of the market is real world outcomes, it would be easy to make money by betting against the market.
For example if I-predict is suggesting that National will win the election by 10 percentage points and you think this is bollox and as a result of inbuilt bias then bet that it will be less than that or even that Labour will win. you will get quite good rate on that and therefore make a nice tidy sum.
Now what is so hard for you to understand about that?
How abou you, (or freedom) tell me what the point is because –
“I-Predict is a stock exchange. People have a commercial interest in the results. If that does not skew the content then i don’t know what would. How can it be at all accurate when people always will, always can and always do manipulate stocks to make money.”
Seems to indicate pretty clearly that freedom was trying to claim that I-predict is inaccurate because of the nature of the people engaged in the market.
Where in that passage is there anything remotely suggesting something other than what I have suggested it means?
So felix explain exactly what freedom’s point was if not stating that I-predict is a biased market (i.e. one which reflects more a particular view of a select number of market participants rather than the underlying reality).
You have till to tell me what freedom’s point was if not that I-Predict does not reflect reality because of the underlying bias of people in that market to attempt to manipulate it for financial ends.
So please explain how all that is reflected in freedom’s statement “How can it [i.e. I-predict] be at all accurate when people always will, always can and always do manipulate stocks to make money”?
It seems quite clear from that single sentence that freedom doesn’t think I-predict is an accurate reflection of the underlying reality.
Which was exactly my point. If freedom doesn’t think this then take advantage of this fact and place bets that more accurately reflects reality.
It is quite simple really freedom. I-predict will pay out when something in the real world becomes more likely to happen. You sell as the event becomes more likely to happen and if you are correct then as more information comes to light then this will be reflected in the price.
You think it doesn’t reflect accurately the chance of this thing happening because of the way it has been baised by market participants in their efforts to make money.
However if it isn’t pricing correctly because of this reason it offers you and prime opportunity to make some cash by betting on something with better than even odds.
Let me put it another way for you using a real life example. Some people made a killing in Hong Kong horse race betting because to Chinese people cerain numbers are lucky and certain are unlucky. So Horses that had the number 8, (which I believe is very lucky), received more money than they may have warrented because of form. Hence if you had a good betting strategy you could beat the market.
Life is a gamble lprent. Human activity is driven by risk and reward.
As for why freedom should care, essentially I was advising freedom to put the money where the writing skills were. If what freedom was stating was correct then I-predict is a market ripe to be expolited by someone who takes advantage of the distortions.
Oh I agree that it is a shallow market that would be easy to exploit. My point was that as a market it also carries no real meaning outside of making money. Why would I or freedom want to participate? That is why it is shallow – because it is designed for shallow people. You can tell – they show Act getting significiant vote… 😈
If I have time or effort or resources to expend on a political party then I can and do that directly. If I have something to say on the political process I can and do that directly as well.
For that matter if I want to support a company I often just go and work for them or directly buy their shares – many interesting companies aren’t listed in any market.
Ever since we have had a floating exchange rate specualtion in foreign exchange made up approx 95% of all FE trades. It is a zero sum game, the winners = the loosers.
We should put a tax on it as was suggested by the economist Tobin, ie the Tobin Tax.
Just desserts
The real lunacy of the modern Markets, be it crops, cash, diamonds or debt, is how the majority of trading now occurs with no human pause of consideration or thoughts of redress to the
ramifications of the investment. In times past a Trader’s house was a fancy restaurant that most would speak of in hush reverie and maybe get to see once or twice on those very special occassions that colour one’s life. They were always a busy place.
Friends and foes would gather, some arriving by ship, or plane, some by private car, some on public trains but all could walk in the gate knowing as long as the bill could be paid, they had as fair a chance as the next guy to get a table. The Traders were there to facilitate the transaction and it happened at the physically-constrained speed of the human. Even with the advent of digital technology into the markets, there was always a human to show the menu, take the order and deliver the desserts. The Trader may have slowed the course during a run on apple pie or softened a call for more baklava and pushed out a tiramisu, but not today.
Today the market is Algorithm. A monument to avarice. You get to look in through a slit in the wall and shout an order for a cheeseburger but never again will you see the front door. It doesn’t matter if you have a jacket & tie, there are no longer any tables open in the dining room. If you are quick and don’t mind the smell, there are some spots on the back terrace by the bins.
Your experience of the party is now well and truly that of an outsider.
Inside, Crab Platters of digital delectations are being cracked crunched chomped swallowed and excreted before the Human Trader even saw the option was on the table.
its a bloody analogy. Way to ruin a creative day you pinhead.
For Gosman: or, Comprehension for toddlers
In days past if you had a few bucks you could trade and people controlled the trades. Now if you have a few bucks you have a computer trading autonomously for you.
You really have no idea about the history of the market do you.
Markets have tended to be loud, messy, busy places where people shout and jostle and attempt to get the best deals for themselves. You just need to look at market places in third world nations to realise that.
Methinks you confuse a useful thing such as a market with a useless thing such as a a casino. Anybody working in a market will tell you it works best in a win win fair trade scenario where something useful changes hands. A casino on the other hand pits you on an all or nothing win lose scenario.
No I think you mistake a market for a bureaucratic clearing house.
Markets are whatever people want them to be. Even if you attempt to control them or make them illegal they will still exist in whatever form the people involved in them want.
That is why Socialists could never, and can never, control the black market. I suspect you think the black market is a bad thing.
FFSake Gos, you are a total pillock. I work in markets. I do real business stuff in them, and I know speculation when I see it. Even do some. You get some real life stuff poked at you and you go off about beaurocrats….I never even mentioned them. Where did that tosh come from?
Then its the “socialist” call. FFSake again. I said markets were useful…sounds a very socialist statement dont you think? Thats just the point, you dont think.
Then the “black market” comment. Are you getting desparate?
Why are you such a literal and close-minded individual ? I know that the world i sometimes allude to has never existed you complete moron, if it did do you think people like myself would bother to be fighting for one. Gosman you are without doubt one of the most obstinate children i have ever attempted to communicate with.
You talk of a free market that has never been free. You say you want a level playfield yet put the goalposts on a bank. You blather on about the wastrels that are the left and how they never amount to anything real. If real is the world that i see around us and that is all it will ever be, and that satisfies you then i despair for your heart Gosman, i really do.
So what was the point of raising the idea of times past when you now admit they never existed and doesn’t reflect the reality of the human condition when it comes to commercial interactions between two or more people?
Why didn’t you just state that was where you dream, (and it is a dream), humans could get to at some indeterminate time in the future?
Your analogy does highlight why left wing people never understand the market because they think they can tame and civilise human nature in some utopian vision of love and light.
Actually that’s why you have market regulations and rules; because Lefties know very well that human nature can be cruel and unkind to the vulnerable and powerless.
Of course its nothing to do with internal hyper inflation and the fact Zimbabwe has no productive sector . I suspect that the wheel barrows of cash got to much for them and they went back to bartering it was never going to work in a country like Zimbabwe using it as an example shows the futility of your argument!
Zimbabwe had a large non-agricultural productive sector mik e. It was the second largest in SADC until the early 2000. It was Zanu-PF’s policy of fixing the dollar, inefficient SOE’s, and excessive size of the Zimbabwe state that destroyed it and led to the Hyper inflation. Zanu-PF’s land grab starting in 2000 only accelerated the decline of what was already in a very parlous state.
Gos, much as I dont like the Zimmers business have you ever considered that what you were watching that lead to the hyper inflation was the ending of a century old invasion and imposed system? Perhaps the natives just got plain pissed off with it and did not care about the money and foreign interests reactions. To me it looks like a very high price to pay to get rid of invaders and their systems but who knows? Did you lose a farm?
Uh, not true, our real economy exporters have been slaughtered by the high dollar and the variability in our dollar.
Having our dollar >US60c has meant hundreds of thousands of jobs destroyed.
If we were smart like Singapore we would peg the dollar to a (secret) basket of foreign currencies and weight its movements to achieve our national economic goals.
Let’s tax the fuckers. A Financial Trading Tax at ONLY one tenth of 1% on this figure would bring in $265 million a month or $3.18 billion a year. Although once instigated it would slow the trade down, so we wouldn’t get so much but at least the NZD would be at a sensible price, because at the current level it is going to send exporters to the wall and cost thousands of jobs.
Just about every other country is intervening in its currency using many different devices .China has no problem setting it currency so all its productive sectors can make a steady profit. The only ones that make a steady profit in New Zealand are the untaxed speculators . They are nothing but leaches on the productive sectors !New Zealand is one of the very few countries that allow the productive sector to be annihilated every time one of our sectors stars making a profit so hence we borrow more to keep the economy afloat which makes the currency more volatile
Sorry, but if you’re going to claim that someone is ‘profiting’ from the dollar, then you better include consumers, which is pretty much everyone. Oil would be at least a dollar more expensive if the USD were to fall by 30c, which would impact every good in the country. So consumers do benefit from the higher dollar too.
Zetetic – I am sure your graph is accurate but the point I think you are trying to make is wrong. It is the so-called speculators who keep the currency relatively stable. If there were no speculators, everytime Air New Zealand bought a new plane or Fonterra brought back dividends from its offshore investors, the currency would swing massively. The speculators means that such transactions don’t singificantly affect the value of the currency. This means, ironically, that real businesspeople – eg Air New Zealand, Fonterra, etc – can rely on the value of the currency much more than if the speculators weren’t involved. This seems a stretch at 88c but its still true!
Yes but our lefty friends on the whole don’t understand the benefit of having liquid markets Matthew.
To many of them all speculation is inherently evil and should be stamped out. Prices should be set at fair value and managed under the auspices of a benevolent and just Government agency.
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Abbott’s Freestyle Libre sensors allow continuous glucose monitoring (CGM). The sensor is applied to the back of the patient’s arm, with a thin filament under the skin measuring glucose levels constantly. But it costs around $100 per sensor and must be replaced once every 14 days. Photo by BSIP/Universal Images ...
The Inspector General of Intelligence and Security (IGIS) recently released a report in which he exposes the existence of a foreign intelligence partner-controlled technological “capability” inside the headquarters of the GCSB, NZ’s 5 Eyes-affiliated signals intelligence collection and analysis agency. … Continue reading → ...
Peter Dunne writes – Nearly three decades after the introduction of MMP and multiparty governments there should be a greater level of understanding about their finer points than often appears to be the case. The reaction to the despicable outburst from the Deputy Prime Minister at the weekend highlights ...
The sweet kisses from fruit of summerHave slowly been turning dullerYou say, "those times"And "remember the daysWhen we went outside and there still was the shade?"Taking no reason into play…Autumn. Clear, blue days shortening to longer nights, growing colder. Aotearoa.That’s us. The temperature dropping, the looming car crash - so ...
Bryce Edwards writes – “It is often said that behind every great man is a great woman”. This is the pitch by the National Party Botany electorate branch to attend their “Ladies Afternoon Tea with Amanda Luxon”. For $110 including GST, you can turn up on Saturday 20 April ...
David Farrar writes – The Electoral Commission has published the expense returns for political parties for the 2023 election. I’ve put them in a table with how many votes a party got so we can see the spend per vote. National only spent $3.34 for every vote they got, almost ...
Winston Peters’ headline-making actions over the past week may have been a show of political power intended to strengthen his hand in Budget negotiations. It was no accident that his State of the Nation speech was as it was. He made it as New Zealand First Leader, not as Deputy ...
Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:Former Labour Finance Minister Grant Robertson bowed out of politics this week, giving a series of exit ...
Graham Adams writes — If you love the law or sausages, as the saying goes, best not to look too closely at how they are made. And after watching the orgy of self-pity when Newshub’s closure was announced on February 28, television journalism should definitely be added to the list of those ...
Venerable New Zealand political commentator, Chris Trotter (https://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/), is a sad creature these days. Once one of the most reliable Leftist writers out there – Economic Left at that – Trotter seems to have absorbed the worldview of Auckland culture-war obsessives. It is not for me to categorise what he ...
The cruelty of short-term memory loss is that each time you ask where she is, you get the fresh shock and grief of the news. That was Dad's day yesterday.Comfortingly, it seems to be less so today. Last night he looked crumpled, today he seems more settled. There's a card ...
The Coalition Government’s plan to ‘get Auckland moving’ is a cuts cover-up that will ultimately cost Aucklanders more to move around the city, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
Slashing the Ministry of Pacific Peoples by 40% will have a devastating impact on pacific communities and further highlights how little this government cares about anything other than cutting taxes for the wealthiest few. ...
Labour has proposed an urgent inquiry to investigate the ever-increasing profits of supermarkets, aiming to lower costs for shoppers and food producers alike, says Labour Spokesperson for Commerce and Consumer Affairs Arena Williams and Primary Production Spokesperson Cushla Tangaere-Manuel. ...
With 14% of jobs on the line at the Ministry for Ethnic Communities, the responsible Minister Melissa Lee is failing to stand up for the very communities she’s meant to be representing. ...
COURT OF APPEAL: TRIFECTA OF VICTORY FOR NZ FIRST, TRIFECTA OF FAILURE FOR OPPONENTS For the third time since April 2020, New Zealand First has defeated the Serious Fraud Office and all those complicit in a malicious attack against a political party going about its lawful business in a lawful ...
The Green Party stands with people who live in public housing, people in dire housing need, experts and advocates in demanding better than the Government’s archaic approach to housing those who need our support the most. ...
New Zealand has recently lost the hosting rights of some major international sporting events including the America’s Cup, the Rugby Championship, Netball World Cup, and the Wellington Sevens. We are now at a huge risk of losing SailGP as well. And it won’t stop there. The recent issues with SailGP ...
A Member’s Bill drawn this week would modernise insurance law and make things fairer and more transparent for consumers, Christchurch Central MP Duncan Webb said. ...
The Minister for Disability Issues has confirmed she was aware of funding issues in mid-December and did nothing to stop it. On 14 March, she signed off on changes that were announced and implemented on 18 March without any consultation with disability communities. ...
Green Party MP Julie Anne Genter says her members' bill is an opportunity for the coalition government to plug the gap in electric vehicle incentives. ...
The National Government continues to talk about irresponsible tax cuts that will only drive up inflation, despite the country entering a technical recession. ...
The Minister for Disability Issues must act urgently to reinstate flexibility around the funding for disability support and apologise to disabled carers. ...
This story has been initiated by a leftie shill reporter who proactively sought to call a member of a former band, which disbanded twelve years ago, give their biased appraisal of what was said in my speech, and concocted a ham-fisted attempt at a story that does nothing but show ...
The Government has accepted Labour’s change to the Road User Charge (RUC) discount for hybrid vehicles, meaning there will still be some incentive for people to buy greener vehicles. ...
Many in the mainstream media have taken what was said in New Zealand First’s State of the Nation Speech in Palmerston North on Sunday and deliberately, deceitfully, and ignorantly misrepresented what I said and why I said it. The headlines and commentary on the news stated that I compared ‘co-governance ...
Kicking the most vulnerable people out of state housing and pushing them towards homelessness will result in a proliferation of poverty and trauma across our most vulnerable communities. ...
Te Pāti Māori co-leader and MP for Waiariki, Rawiri Waititi has penned a letter asking MPs to support his members bill to remove GST from all food. The bill is expected to go through its first reading in parliament this Wednesday. “I’m calling on all political parties to support my ...
Good afternoon. Thank you for, in your very busy lives, turning up to this meeting today. On October 14th last year New Zealanders overwhelmingly voted for change. That is exactly what this new government is bringing. New Zealand First campaigned to ‘take back our country’ and stop the disastrous economic ...
This year is about getting real with Kiwis and discussing the tough issues, as the National Government exacerbates inequality and divides New Zealand, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said ...
The Government adding Significant Natural Areas (SNAs) to its already roaring environmental policy bonfire is an assault on the future of wildlife that makes Aotearoa unique. ...
After 12 years of fighting to protect our moana we are finding ourselves back at square one and back at court. Today, the Environmental Protection Agency is sitting in Hawera to reconsider an application from Trans-Tasman Resources to dig up 50 million tonnes of the seabed in South Taranaki. This ...
Minister Shane Jones’ decision to step away from a seabed mining project is evidence of the murky waters surrounding the Government’s fast-track legislation. ...
The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last government in a bid to get greater coherence in the publicservice on Treaty matters. When ministers first considered the need for tighter oversight in 2021, there ...
The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last government in a bid to get greater coherence in the publicservice on Treaty matters. When ministers first considered the need for tighter oversight in 2021, there ...
The Coalition Government’s miscalculation saga continues as it has forgotten an eyewatering $90 million gap in its interest deductibility cost figures, say Labour Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds and Revenue Spokesperson Deborah Russell. ...
He Pou a Rangi Climate Change Commission has today released advice that says if the Government doesn’t act now New Zealand is at risk of not meeting its climate goals. ...
The Coalition Government has today confirmed it is abandoning first home buyers who are struggling to get ahead, says Labour Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds. ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed the passing of legislation to move light electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) into the road user charges system from 1 April. “It was always intended that EVs and PHEVs would be exempt from road user charges until they reached two ...
New Zealand is strengthening its ability to combat illegal fishing outside its domestic waters and beef up regulation for its own commercial fishers in international waters through a Bill which had its first reading in Parliament today. The Fisheries (International Fishing and Other Matters) Amendment Bill 2023 sets out stronger ...
Economists Carl Hansen and Professor Prasanna Gai have been appointed to the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee, Finance Minister Nicola Willis announced today. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is the independent decision-making body that sets the Official Cash Rate which determines interest rates. Carl Hansen, the executive director of Capital ...
Apartment owners and buyers will soon have greater protections as further changes to the law on unit titles come into effect, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “The Unit Titles (Strengthening Body Corporate Governance and Other Matters) Amendment Act had already introduced some changes in December 2022 and May 2023, and ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters will travel to Egypt and Europe from this weekend. “This travel will focus on a range of New Zealand’s traditional diplomatic and security partnerships while enabling broad engagement on the urgent situation in Gaza,” Mr Peters says. Mr Peters will attend the NATO Foreign ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown is encouraging all road users to stay safe, plan their journeys ahead of time, and be patient with other drivers while travelling around this Easter long weekend. “Road safety is a responsibility we all share, and with increased traffic on our roads expected this Easter we ...
About 1.4 million New Zealanders will receive cost of living relief through increased government assistance from April 1 909,000 pensioners get a boost to Superannuation, including 5000 veterans 371,000 working-age beneficiaries will get higher payments 45,000 students will see an increase in their allowance Over a quarter of New Zealanders ...
Ensuring social housing is being provided to those with the greatest needs is front of mind as the Government restarts social housing tenancy reviews, Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka says. “Our relentless focus on building a strong economy is to ensure we can deliver better public services such as social ...
The Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary will not go ahead, with Cabinet deciding to stop work on the proposed reserve and remove the Bill that would have established it from Parliament’s order paper. “The Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary Bill would have created a 620,000 sq km economic no-go zone,” Oceans and Fisheries Minister ...
Dam safety regulations are being amended so that smaller dams won’t be subject to excessive compliance costs, Minister for Building and Construction Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on reducing costs and removing unnecessary red tape so we can get the economy back on track. “Dam safety regulations ...
The coalition Government is expanding the medium-scale adverse event classification to parts of the North Island as dry weather conditions persist, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced today. “I have made the decision to expand the medium-scale adverse event classification already in place for parts of the South Island to also cover the ...
The passing of legislation giving effect to coalition Government tax commitments has been welcomed by Finance Minister Nicola Willis. “The Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill will help place New Zealand on a more secure economic footing, improve outcomes for New Zealanders, and make our tax system ...
Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins and Tertiary Education and Skills Minister Penny Simmonds today announced plans to transform our science and university sectors to boost the economy. Two advisory groups, chaired by Professor Sir Peter Gluckman, will advise the Government on how these sectors can play a greater ...
The Budget will deliver urgently-needed tax relief to hard-working New Zealanders while putting the government’s finances back on a sustainable track, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The Finance Minister made the comments at the release of the Budget Policy Statement setting out the Government’s Budget objectives. “The coalition Government intends ...
The coalition Government will look at options to address a zoning issue that limits how much financial support Queenstown residents can get for accommodation. Cabinet has agreed on a response to the Petitions Committee, which had recommended the geographic information MSD uses to determine how much accommodation supplement can be ...
Cabinet has agreed to a short extension to the final reporting timeframe for the Royal Commission into Abuse in Care from 28 March 2024 to 26 June 2024, Internal Affairs Minister Brooke van Velden says. “The Royal Commission wrote to me on 16 February 2024, requesting that I consider an ...
The coalition Government is delivering an $18 million boost to New Zealanders needing to travel for specialist health treatment, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says. “These changes are long overdue – the National Travel Assistance (NTA) scheme saw its last increase to mileage and accommodation rates way back in 2009. ...
The Government is recognising the innovative and rising talent in New Zealand’s growing space sector, with the Prime Minister and Space Minister Judith Collins announcing the new Prime Minister’s Prizes for Space today. “New Zealand has a growing reputation as a high-value partner for space missions and research. I am ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed New Zealand’s concerns about cyber activity have been conveyed directly to the Chinese Government. “The Prime Minister and Minister Collins have expressed concerns today about malicious cyber activity, attributed to groups sponsored by the Chinese Government, targeting democratic institutions in both New ...
Independent Reviewers appointed for School Property Inquiry Education Minister Erica Stanford today announced the appointment of three independent reviewers to lead the Ministerial Inquiry into the Ministry of Education’s School Property Function. The Inquiry will be led by former Minister of Foreign Affairs Murray McCully. “There is a clear need ...
State Highway 1 across the Brynderwyns will be open for Easter weekend, with work currently underway to ensure the resilience of this critical route being paused for Easter Weekend to allow holiday makers to travel north, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Today I visited the Brynderwyn Hills construction site, where ...
Introduction Good morning to you all, and thanks for having me bright and early today. I am absolutely delighted to be the Minister for Infrastructure alongside the Minister of Housing and Resource Management Reform. I know the Prime Minister sees the three roles as closely connected and he wants me ...
New Zealand stands with the United Kingdom in its condemnation of People’s Republic of China (PRC) state-backed malicious cyber activity impacting its Electoral Commission and targeting Members of the UK Parliament. “The use of cyber-enabled espionage operations to interfere with democratic institutions and processes anywhere is unacceptable,” Minister Responsible for ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Defence Minister Judith Collins today announced New Zealand will provide logistics support for the upcoming Solomon Islands election. “We’re sending a team of New Zealand Defence Force personnel and two NH90 helicopters to provide logistics support for the election on 17 April, at the request ...
The European Union Free Trade Agreement Legislation Amendment Bill received Royal Assent today, completing the process for New Zealand’s ratification of its free trade agreement with the European Union. “I am pleased to announce that today, in a small ceremony at the Beehive, New Zealand notified the European Union ...
Public consultation on the terms of reference for the Royal Commission into COVID-19 Lessons has concluded, Internal Affairs Minister Hon Brooke van Velden says. “I have been advised that there were over 11,000 submissions made through the Royal Commission’s online consultation portal.” Expanding the scope of the Royal Commission of ...
Hardworking families are set to benefit from a new credit to help them meet their early childcare education (ECE) costs, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. From 1 July, parents and caregivers of young children will be supported to manage the rising cost of living with a partial reimbursement of their ...
A specialised Independent Technical Advisory Group (ITAG) tasked with preparing and publishing independent non-binding advice on the design of a "green" (sustainable finance) taxonomy rulebook is being established, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “Comprising experts and market participants, the ITAG's primary goal is to deliver comprehensive recommendations to the ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins has thanked the Chief of Army, Major General John Boswell, DSD, for his service as he leaves the Army after 40 years. “I would like to thank Major General Boswell for his contribution to the Army and the wider New Zealand Defence Force, undertaking many different ...
25 March 2024 Minister to meet Australian counterparts and Manufacturing Industry Leaders Small Business, Manufacturing, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly will travel to Australia for a series of bi-lateral meetings and manufacturing visits. During the visit, Minister Bayly will meet with his Australian counterparts, Senator Tim Ayres, Ed ...
Government commits almost $3 million for period products in schools The Coalition Government has committed $2.9 million to ensure intermediate and secondary schools continue providing period products to those who need them, Minister of Education Erica Stanford announced today. “This is an issue of dignity and ensuring young women don’t ...
Good morning, it’s great to be here. First, I would like to acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of Building Surveyors and thank you for the opportunity to be here this morning. I would like to use this opportunity to outline the Government’s ambitious plan and what we hope to ...
Minister for Pacific Peoples Dr Shane Reti has announced the Government’s commitment to the Auckland Secondary Schools Māori and Pacific Islands Cultural Festival, more commonly known as Polyfest. “The Ministry for Pacific Peoples is a longtime supporter of Polyfest and, as it celebrates 49 years in 2024, I’m proud to ...
Before moving onto the substance of today’s address, I want to recognise the very significant and ongoing contribution the Breast Cancer Foundation makes to support the lives of New Zealand women and their families living with breast cancer. I very much enjoy working with you. I also want to recognise ...
New Zealand has notched up a first with the launch of University of Canterbury research to the International Space Station, Science, Innovation and Technology and Space Minister Judith Collins says. The hardware, developed by Dr Sarah Kessans, is designed to operate autonomously in orbit, allowing scientists on Earth to study ...
Introduction Thank you for inviting me to speak with you today and I’m sorry I can’t be there in person. Yesterday I started in Wellington for Breakfast TV, spoke to a property conference in Auckland, and finished the day speaking to local government in Christchurch, so it would have been ...
The Coalition Government is contributing more than $1 million to support the establishment of an emergency multi-agency coordination centre in Northland. Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell announced the contribution today during a visit of the Whangārei site where the facility will be constructed. “Northland has faced a number ...
New Zealanders have enjoyed a broader range of voices telling the story of Aotearoa thanks to the creation of Whakaata Māori 20 years ago, says Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka. The minister spoke at a celebration marking the national indigenous media organisation’s 20th anniversary at their studio in Auckland on ...
Commercial catch limits for some fisheries have been increased following a review showing stocks are healthy and abundant, Ocean and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The changes, along with some other catch limit changes and management settings, begin coming into effect from 1 April 2024. "Regular biannual reviews of fish ...
Opposition MPs and unions are criticising a proposal by New Zealand’s Ministry of Pacific Peoples to cut staff by 40 percent. The country’s largest trade union — The Public Service Association — says the ministry has informed staff that it is looking to shed 63 of 156 positions. Opposition MPs ...
A poem by Poetry Aotearoa Yearbook 2024 featured poet Carin Smeaton. Daughtr of the 90s when she gets promoted to usherette a baby blu eel carries her all the way up to mothership she’s hovering high she lets the underaged in to see keanu reeves she lets the only lonely ...
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand. My earlier article – Can ‘Good’ be the Greater Evil? – looked at the issue of how wars should end, and how Good versus Evil ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 AMMA by Saraid de Silva (Moa Press, $38)A stunning debut novel reviewed by Brannavan ...
From Steve Martin to Ricky Stanicky, a pick’n’mix of things worth watching and listening to this long weekend. This is an excerpt from our weekly pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here. If you’re at a loss for something to occupy yourself with this Easter, don’t panic: The Spinoff’s got ...
Jesus had dinner with his 12 disciples right before he died. Noted historian Madeleine Chapman finds out who really deserved to be there.First published in 2018 but let’s be honest, the subject is timeless. As you sit on your couch this Easter Sunday, eating a chocolate egg you know ...
The newly-promoted Northern League club is on a mission to return to the National League for the first time in two decades. Plenty about domestic football in New Zealand has changed in that time – but the sense that this amateur competition is not an entirely level playing field remains. ...
Comment: Every year on February 2, a dozen men in tuxedos and top hats approach the burrow of a groundhog in Gobbler’s Knob, Pennsylvania and entice the beaver-like rodent to emerge and predict the weather. If the groundhog, named Punxsutawney Phil, sees its own shadow when it is summoned, legend ...
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Auckland Council has put a deadline on new weather-impacted property owners applying for categorisation as government funding looks set to run out. Councillors have voted to support a deadline of September 30 for property owners who haven’t accessed support to come forward and engage with the council’s recovery office. It ...
NONFICTION 1 BBQ Economics by Liam Dann (Penguin Random House, $40) “It’s official,” wrote Dann nine days ago in the Herald, where he works as business editor at large, “we’re in recession.” Yeah, great. He delivered the bad stats: “GDP fell 0.1 percent in the December 2023 quarter, compared with ...
By Anneke Smith, RNZ News political reporter A petition urging the New Zealand government to provide urgent humanitarian assistance to the Palestinian people has been tabled in the House. More than 200 people gathered on Parliament’s forecourt today and they were met by MPs from Labour, the Greens and Te ...
Pacific Media Watch The Paris-based global media freedom watchdog RSF (Reporters Without Borders) has appealed for information about the “disappearance” of Palestinian journalist Bayan Abusultan. She was reportedly last seen on March 19 among people “sequestered” in this week’s raid and siege of Al Shifa hospital by Israeli troops in ...
EDITORIAL:The Jakarta Post It happens again and again; indigenous Papuans fall victim to Indonesian soldiers. This time, we have photographic evidence for the brutality, with videos on social media showing a Papuan man being tortured by a group of plainclothes men alleged to be the Indonesian Military (TNI) members. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robyn J. Whitaker, Director of the Wesley Centre for Theology, Ethics, and Public Policy & Associate Professor, New Testament, Pilgrim Theological College, University of Divinity A strange and eclectic range of activities takes place across these few weeks of the year. Some ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Panizza Allmark, Professor Visual & Cultural Studies, Edith Cowan University It’s Easter weekend, which means many of us will be kicking back with the greatest hits on repeat. But whether you’re a boomer, or an ‘80s or ’90s kid, you might be ...
RNZ Pacific Fiji’s Acting Public Prosecutor has filed an appeal against the sentences of former prime minister Voreqe Bainimarama and suspended police chief Sitiveni Qiliho in their corruption case. Bainimarama was granted an absolute discharge for attempting to pervert the course of justice while Qiliho received a conditional discharge with ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Arosha Weerakoon, Senior Lecturer and General Dentist, School of Dentistry, The University of Queensland Casezy idea/Shutterstock How does toothpaste work? What did people use before toothpaste was invented? – Amelia, age 7, Meanjin (Brisbane) Thanks for your ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brett Hallam, Associate professor, UNSW Sydney IM Imagery/Shutterstock Solar SunShot is well named. The Australian government announced today it would plough A$1 billion into bringing back solar manufacturing to Australia, boosting energy security, swapping coal and gas jobs for those ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Dix, Research Fellow in Nutrition & Dietetics, The University of Queensland Easter is the time for chocolate. The shops are full of fantastically packaged and shiny chocolates in all shapes and sizes, making trips to the supermarket with children more challenging ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emma Felton, Adjunct Senior Researcher, University of South Australia Even in a stubborn cost-of-living crisis, it seems there’s one luxury most Australians won’t sacrifice – their daily cup of coffee. Coffee sales have largely remained stable, even as financial pressures have ...
Mining company Trans-Tasman Resources has unexpectedly withdrawn its application for a consent to suck the valuable metals vanadium and titanium from the Taranaki seafloor, as it apparently wagers on the Government’s new fast-track process. It had spent two-and-a-half days putting its case to the Environmental Protection Agency’s decision-making committee, at ...
Contrary to the Associate Minister of Education’s claims, analysis of Healthy School Lunches Programme - Ka Ora, Ka Ako assessments has revealed it provides excellent value for the taxpayer dollar, as a groundswell of public opposition to Government ...
Greenpeace says wannabe Taranaki seabed miner Trans-Tasman Resources is likely banking on Christopher Luxon’s fast-track process to side-step proper scrutiny of its Taranaki seabed mining proposal by bailing out of the Environmental Protection Agency hearing ...
Kiwis Against Seabed mining today slammed Australian owned would-be seabed miner Trans Tasman Resources (TTR) for abandoning its application to the Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) to mine the seabed of the South Taranaki Bight. The company ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katie Attwell, Associate Professor, School of Social Sciences, The University of Western Australia Ground Picture/Shutterstock Months after COVID vaccines were introduced in 2021, governments and private organisations mandated them for various groups. Health and aged care workers were among the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Dzurak, Scientia Professor Andrew Dzurak, CEO and Founder of Diraq, UNSW Sydney Diraq For decades, the pursuit of quantum computing has struggled with the need for extremely low temperatures, mere fractions of a degree above absolute zero (0 Kelvin or ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne A national Essential poll, conducted March 20–24 from a sample of 1,150, gave the Coalition a 50–44 lead including undecided, a reversal ...
The Taxpayers’ Union has today made a formal request under the Regulations of the People’s Republic of China on Open Government Information () for information held about how New Zealand Members of Parliament are spending taxpayer ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert Nelson, Honorary Principal Fellow, The University of Melbourne A Byzantine depiction of the Eucharist in Saint Sophia Cathedral, Kyiv.Jacek555/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA A nasty quarrel arose in the 11th century over what kind of bread should be used in holy ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Patrick Hesp, Professor, Flinders University Patrick Hesp In some parts of Australia, coastal dunes are retreating from the ocean at an alarming rate, as waves carve up the beach and wind blows the sand inland. But coastal communities are largely ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Luke Heemsbergen, Senior Lecturer, Digital, Political, Media, Deakin University With an impressive 60% of the US smartphone market, Apple is undeniably big, but not a clear monopoly. Yet, years of innovation by Apple have effectively given the company its own exclusive ...
Whether you’re facing layoffs or are just an emotional junior staffer, it’s always a good idea to scout out a good crying place before you need it. It’s an incredibly hard time for Wellington. Across the city, thousands of public servants are hearing tough news about redundancies and layoffs. Government ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Miller-Jones, Professor, Curtin University Nuclear explosions on a neutron star feed its jets. Danielle Futselaar and Nathalie Degenaar, Anton Pannekoek Institute, University of Amsterdam, CC BY-SA How fast can a neutron star drive powerful jets into space? The answer, it ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daryl Adair, Associate Professor of Sport Management, University of Technology Sydney Earlier this week, independent MP Andrew Wilkie accused the AFL of conducting “off the books” illicit drug testing to identify players using substances of abuse, then inappropriately withdrawing them from matches ...
The Government’s announcement that it will scrap plans for a vast marine sanctuary around the Kermadec Islands is ‘shameful’ and will make it impossible for Aotearoa New Zealand to meet its international commitments, says the World Wide Fund for Nature ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland Shutterstock The federal government has bowed to pressure from the car industry, announcing it will relax proposed emissions rules for utes and vans and delay enforcement of the new standards ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Suzanne Rutland, Professor Emerita, University of Sydney In his latest book, Jewish Life in Medieval Spain, Jonathan Ray focuses on the tumult of the 14th century in Spain – a time of the plague, civil strife and war between the two largest ...
While creating a slate of world-class shows, Whakaata Māori also developed a generation of world-class creatives. Television is an odd word. It mixes the Ancient Greek and Latin languages, and its most literal meaning is “far-off sight”. In the contemporary and living language of te reo Māori, “whakaata” as a ...
Yesterday the UN Security Council passed a resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire in Israel’s war on Gaza. This significant step and the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza prompted an urgent debate in the New Zealand Parliament. Leader ...
The Government’s decision to reduce access to continuous glucose monitors (CGM) not only threatens the lives of children with type 1 diabetes and increases the potential for ‘Dead in Bed’ syndrome, but also threatens the health of their parents an ...
Apples are available year-round, but the wide variety on offer involves intensive scientific research – and large-scale commercialisation. What’s beautiful, red, sweet and crunchy? Tony Martin’s favourite kind of apple: Sassy. The CEO of apple and pear breeding organisation Prevar, Martin’s fondness for Sassy represents professional success as well as ...
Family violence specialist service Shine is calling on employers to stop asking for proof of domestic violence in order for employees to access domestic violence leave. The call comes five years after the introduction of the Domestic Violence ...
The Deputy Chairperson of the Finance and Expenditure Committee is calling for public submissions on the Budget Policy Statement 2024. The Budget Policy Statement 2024 (BPS) sets out the Government's priorities for the 2024 Budget. It explains the approach ...
Brutal government spending cuts that will see the size of the Ministry for Pacific Peoples slashed by 40% will hit Pasifika communities hard, the PSA says. The Ministry has told staff that it is seeking voluntary redundancies, and to redeploy and reassign ...
I live with five people I mostly love, but our different ideas about generosity are starting to really irk me.Want Hera’s help? Email your problem to helpme@thespinoff.co.nzDear Hera,This is a bit of a random one but here goes. I’m 22 and work an OK job (OK meaning I get paid ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Maria Nicholas, Senior Lecturer in Language and Literacy Education, Deakin University Earlier this month, the New South Wales government announced it would roll out programs for gifted students in every public school in the state. This comes amid concerns gifted school ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Rudge, Law lecturer, University of Sydney Massachusetts General Hospital In a world first, we heard last week that US surgeons had transplanted a kidney from a gene-edited pig into a living human. News reports said the procedure was a ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Tombs, Howard Paterson Chair of Theology and Public Issues, University of Otago The 5th-century Maskell panel showing Jesus in a loincloth.British Museum, CC BY-NC-SA When Jesus is shown on the cross, he is almost always depicted wearing a loincloth around ...
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This should be front page news and linked directly to John Key.
What does Key have to say about it? I mean currency trade is supposed to be about support of trade etc, however it is quite clear that near 95% of currency trade is 100% pure speculation.
Talk about non-productive shit.
The chart doesn’t tell us where “invisibles” come. In the left block or the right block. Assuming they are in the right block then we don’t know how much of that block is actual speculation.
‘This should be front page news and linked directly to John Key.’
You have got to be dreaming!
The prime function of the corporate-owned media is to keep all fundamental truths well hidden and keep the proles distracted with trivia. And make a profit out of it.
99% of the populace don’t even realise: they actually pay money to be distracted and misinformed. That’s how successful the corporate misinformation system is.
Perhaps you can suggest that the next left led government could set up a ministry for truth so that the ‘correct’ view of the world can be put forward.
Yes.
Actually, re-introducing not for profit news media media channels would do it.
“Back in reality” was for Gos, not you btw. Public news channels are definitely needed.
Back in reality, giving bodies like the BSA a few more teeth to deal with the accuracy of reporting mightn’t be a bad idea.
Even when there is truth, knowledge that is generated from robust academic research the current government choose not to believe it and do the opposite of what is recommended!
Except that this, like the media, leaves out a huge amount of information. A lot of the media isn’t corporately owned, it’s publically funded, and it certainly isn’t all right-wing.
Nice chart. Whats the source, be interested to know if there is any historical information available (ie, would like to look at how its changed over the last few years)
Why else would Key say you can do nothing , as a former currency trader thats what they want.
The small margins on huge speculative flows and the ‘carriage’ trade are what he made his fortune on. Being paid massive bonuses based on the profit for his company.
I see an opening for Winston Peters here, as Labour sits on its hands regarding currency speculation.
Its right up Peters street to rail against the ‘big money speculators’ and the effect its having on average kiwis. Watch this space
New Zealand used to strictly control the currency by setting it’s value against the US Dollar. That didn’t stop the speculators causing a run against it in 1984.
You just need to look at Zimbabwe, (where currency speculation was made illegal pre 2008), to see what would happen if you attempted to do something similar here.
You can’t eliminate a market were there is a need for it.
Yeah right again Gossip Man telling porkies again . make it up as you go Gossman. its hardly wort replying to BS Zimbabwe was a totally different scenario nothing faintly similar to NZ 1984 .You say you have worked for different investment banks what as cleaner or tea lady.Muldoon was playing games with the opposition while they were waiting in the wings. Muldoom borrowed and hoped us into a corner not unlike Bill English and Roger Douglas.Zimbabwe lost most of its productive sector and there were to few goods in the market due to his nihilistic behavior .The opposite was true of Muldoon we had to many goods and couldn’t sell them. Goossman your under standing is a joke your claims to have worked for big investment banks is an even bigger joke!
You have no idea about what happened in Zimbabwe with regard the currency there do you mik e? Well that much is clear from your response.
So to educate you a little – what the Government there tried to do for a number of years, especially between 2000 and 2008 was to set the price of the Zimbabwe dollar, in essence to fix it.
The trouble was the dollar is only worth what the market is willing to pay for it, not what a Government official decides it is worth.
Zimbabwe found that out the hard way when the official market dried up and people took their money to the black market instead.
NZ learned a similar lesson in 1984 when Muldoon refused to let the market determine a more realistic value of the currency.
Which chart, the meaningless one at the top, or the electionresults one just underneath?
The top one has virtually no information so it’s impossible to tell what it relates to, the other is an “if the eelction was today” sort of scenario that also has limited meaning because if an election was today many people would be thinking differently about how they might vote.
So all your, (what would it be, dozens?), of comments about what the polls tell us are actually meaningless Pete?
i know it is bashing my head against a brick wall but a structure based on financial renumeration is no way to run an Election Poll. I-Predict is a stock exchange. People have a commercial interest in the results. If that does not skew the content then i don’t know what would. How can it be at all accurate when people always will, always can and always do manipulate stocks to make money.
It might be fun for those taking part but being touted around the place as a poll device to show how voters may or may not be behaving is not what we need when trying to kick a Trader out of office.
So make some money by betting against the bias in the market. It would seem to be a no brainer but one which lefties seem to fail to grasp.
Gosman, there is a popular starfish who is less obtuse than you
that is why i am saying it is an unreliable tool for reporting polling, d’uh
You don’t understand the market do you?
The value of these things are dependent on the real event. Hence if it is totally skewed because of the bias you claim exists then it would be easy to make a killing by basing your bets on what you think the actual reality is.
“make a killing”
what by inflating the value of our dollar to the point that our real tech exporters whither and die?
Thanks, but the NZD should not be used as just another chip in the ludicrous world finance casino.
He’s explained his point twice now Gos. Please read it this time.
Ummm… his point, if I read him correctly, is that I-predict is bollox because of the underlying bias of the people in the market. However if there does exist such a bias, as the basis of the market is real world outcomes, it would be easy to make money by betting against the market.
For example if I-predict is suggesting that National will win the election by 10 percentage points and you think this is bollox and as a result of inbuilt bias then bet that it will be less than that or even that Labour will win. you will get quite good rate on that and therefore make a nice tidy sum.
Now what is so hard for you to understand about that?
“Ummm… his point, if I read him correctly, is that I-predict is bollox because of the underlying bias of the people in the market.”
Then no, you don’t understand his point correctly. Have another crack at it.
And this time, read the words first then figure out what’s being said.
How abou you, (or freedom) tell me what the point is because –
“I-Predict is a stock exchange. People have a commercial interest in the results. If that does not skew the content then i don’t know what would. How can it be at all accurate when people always will, always can and always do manipulate stocks to make money.”
Seems to indicate pretty clearly that freedom was trying to claim that I-predict is inaccurate because of the nature of the people engaged in the market.
Where in that passage is there anything remotely suggesting something other than what I have suggested it means?
I don’t see anything there about a bias in the market. Try again.
Ummmm….. freedom was trying to state the I-predict market doesn’t relect reality because of this manipulation – that means the market is biased.
Not sure if ‘biased’ is the right word, but its certainly not a ‘free market’ in terms of transparency or efficiency 🙂
No Gos, not in the way you’re implying.
So felix explain exactly what freedom’s point was if not stating that I-predict is a biased market (i.e. one which reflects more a particular view of a select number of market participants rather than the underlying reality).
Here’s what you said, Gos: (you don’t mind, do you?)
Stop yer wriggling and read it fer yerself.
You have till to tell me what freedom’s point was if not that I-Predict does not reflect reality because of the underlying bias of people in that market to attempt to manipulate it for financial ends.
So what was his point felix?
Oh ffs you’re never going to get it on your own, are you?
The money isn’t made and lost according to any “real event” as you put it, that’s for the suckers.
The money is made on the way up and on the way down. Movement is all that matters.
It’s not real Gos. You’re either being taken for a ride or you’re trying to pull the wool. Either way you’re full of shit.
So please explain how all that is reflected in freedom’s statement “How can it [i.e. I-predict] be at all accurate when people always will, always can and always do manipulate stocks to make money”?
It seems quite clear from that single sentence that freedom doesn’t think I-predict is an accurate reflection of the underlying reality.
Which was exactly my point. If freedom doesn’t think this then take advantage of this fact and place bets that more accurately reflects reality.
Gosman.
I will use small words ok.
It is a Stock Market -so it is flawed as a device for polls.
stock-market:
An exchange where trading is conducted
poll:
An inquiry into public opinion conducted by interviewing a random sample of people
do you see the difference?
Then make money on this flaw.
It is quite simple really freedom. I-predict will pay out when something in the real world becomes more likely to happen. You sell as the event becomes more likely to happen and if you are correct then as more information comes to light then this will be reflected in the price.
You think it doesn’t reflect accurately the chance of this thing happening because of the way it has been baised by market participants in their efforts to make money.
However if it isn’t pricing correctly because of this reason it offers you and prime opportunity to make some cash by betting on something with better than even odds.
Let me put it another way for you using a real life example. Some people made a killing in Hong Kong horse race betting because to Chinese people cerain numbers are lucky and certain are unlucky. So Horses that had the number 8, (which I believe is very lucky), received more money than they may have warrented because of form. Hence if you had a good betting strategy you could beat the market.
Why bother gambling? Who cares.
Life is a gamble lprent. Human activity is driven by risk and reward.
As for why freedom should care, essentially I was advising freedom to put the money where the writing skills were. If what freedom was stating was correct then I-predict is a market ripe to be expolited by someone who takes advantage of the distortions.
Oh I agree that it is a shallow market that would be easy to exploit. My point was that as a market it also carries no real meaning outside of making money. Why would I or freedom want to participate? That is why it is shallow – because it is designed for shallow people. You can tell – they show Act getting significiant vote… 😈
If I have time or effort or resources to expend on a political party then I can and do that directly. If I have something to say on the political process I can and do that directly as well.
For that matter if I want to support a company I often just go and work for them or directly buy their shares – many interesting companies aren’t listed in any market.
Ever since we have had a floating exchange rate specualtion in foreign exchange made up approx 95% of all FE trades. It is a zero sum game, the winners = the loosers.
We should put a tax on it as was suggested by the economist Tobin, ie the Tobin Tax.
Just desserts
The real lunacy of the modern Markets, be it crops, cash, diamonds or debt, is how the majority of trading now occurs with no human pause of consideration or thoughts of redress to the
ramifications of the investment. In times past a Trader’s house was a fancy restaurant that most would speak of in hush reverie and maybe get to see once or twice on those very special occassions that colour one’s life. They were always a busy place.
Friends and foes would gather, some arriving by ship, or plane, some by private car, some on public trains but all could walk in the gate knowing as long as the bill could be paid, they had as fair a chance as the next guy to get a table. The Traders were there to facilitate the transaction and it happened at the physically-constrained speed of the human. Even with the advent of digital technology into the markets, there was always a human to show the menu, take the order and deliver the desserts. The Trader may have slowed the course during a run on apple pie or softened a call for more baklava and pushed out a tiramisu, but not today.
Today the market is Algorithm. A monument to avarice. You get to look in through a slit in the wall and shout an order for a cheeseburger but never again will you see the front door. It doesn’t matter if you have a jacket & tie, there are no longer any tables open in the dining room. If you are quick and don’t mind the smell, there are some spots on the back terrace by the bins.
Your experience of the party is now well and truly that of an outsider.
Inside, Crab Platters of digital delectations are being cracked crunched chomped swallowed and excreted before the Human Trader even saw the option was on the table.
Do you want fries with that?
What are you on freedom?
When was this supposed magical happy time when people visited a traders luxury appointed house to spend a few memorable and life changing moments?
its a bloody analogy. Way to ruin a creative day you pinhead.
For Gosman: or, Comprehension for toddlers
In days past if you had a few bucks you could trade and people controlled the trades. Now if you have a few bucks you have a computer trading autonomously for you.
You really have no idea about the history of the market do you.
Markets have tended to be loud, messy, busy places where people shout and jostle and attempt to get the best deals for themselves. You just need to look at market places in third world nations to realise that.
In short your polyyannaish world never existed.
Methinks you confuse a useful thing such as a market with a useless thing such as a a casino. Anybody working in a market will tell you it works best in a win win fair trade scenario where something useful changes hands. A casino on the other hand pits you on an all or nothing win lose scenario.
No I think you mistake a market for a bureaucratic clearing house.
Markets are whatever people want them to be. Even if you attempt to control them or make them illegal they will still exist in whatever form the people involved in them want.
That is why Socialists could never, and can never, control the black market. I suspect you think the black market is a bad thing.
FFSake Gos, you are a total pillock. I work in markets. I do real business stuff in them, and I know speculation when I see it. Even do some. You get some real life stuff poked at you and you go off about beaurocrats….I never even mentioned them. Where did that tosh come from?
Then its the “socialist” call. FFSake again. I said markets were useful…sounds a very socialist statement dont you think? Thats just the point, you dont think.
Then the “black market” comment. Are you getting desparate?
Funny this is, capitalists can’t control black markets either.
Look what happened when the completely opaque, undisclosed, unregulated multi-trillion dollar black market in financial derivatives collapsed in 2008.
Threatened to take down the entire global economy.
Going to happen again in the next 6 months I’d say.
And lets not even talk about the market in illicit drugs in capitalist ol’ NZ.
Lesson: GOS has NO IDEA what he is talking about.
Why are you such a literal and close-minded individual ? I know that the world i sometimes allude to has never existed you complete moron, if it did do you think people like myself would bother to be fighting for one. Gosman you are without doubt one of the most obstinate children i have ever attempted to communicate with.
You talk of a free market that has never been free. You say you want a level playfield yet put the goalposts on a bank. You blather on about the wastrels that are the left and how they never amount to anything real. If real is the world that i see around us and that is all it will ever be, and that satisfies you then i despair for your heart Gosman, i really do.
So what was the point of raising the idea of times past when you now admit they never existed and doesn’t reflect the reality of the human condition when it comes to commercial interactions between two or more people?
Why didn’t you just state that was where you dream, (and it is a dream), humans could get to at some indeterminate time in the future?
Your analogy does highlight why left wing people never understand the market because they think they can tame and civilise human nature in some utopian vision of love and light.
Ahem.
Actually that’s why you have market regulations and rules; because Lefties know very well that human nature can be cruel and unkind to the vulnerable and powerless.
Of course its nothing to do with internal hyper inflation and the fact Zimbabwe has no productive sector . I suspect that the wheel barrows of cash got to much for them and they went back to bartering it was never going to work in a country like Zimbabwe using it as an example shows the futility of your argument!
Zimbabwe had a large non-agricultural productive sector mik e. It was the second largest in SADC until the early 2000. It was Zanu-PF’s policy of fixing the dollar, inefficient SOE’s, and excessive size of the Zimbabwe state that destroyed it and led to the Hyper inflation. Zanu-PF’s land grab starting in 2000 only accelerated the decline of what was already in a very parlous state.
Gos, much as I dont like the Zimmers business have you ever considered that what you were watching that lead to the hyper inflation was the ending of a century old invasion and imposed system? Perhaps the natives just got plain pissed off with it and did not care about the money and foreign interests reactions. To me it looks like a very high price to pay to get rid of invaders and their systems but who knows? Did you lose a farm?
Bored, economic collapse always occurs when the serfs and the coloureds get uppity.
Uh, not true, our real economy exporters have been slaughtered by the high dollar and the variability in our dollar.
Having our dollar >US60c has meant hundreds of thousands of jobs destroyed.
If we were smart like Singapore we would peg the dollar to a (secret) basket of foreign currencies and weight its movements to achieve our national economic goals.
For the speculators it is a zero sum game, the gains = the looses.
Sure I get that bit, but who gives a shit when the speculators create collateral carnage in the real economy and in real businesses?
btw I support a Tobin Tax or something very similar.
Let’s tax the fuckers. A Financial Trading Tax at ONLY one tenth of 1% on this figure would bring in $265 million a month or $3.18 billion a year. Although once instigated it would slow the trade down, so we wouldn’t get so much but at least the NZD would be at a sensible price, because at the current level it is going to send exporters to the wall and cost thousands of jobs.
But Adrian, the speculators are the “wealth creators” and randian heroes of the national economy. We mustn’t scare them away with nasty taxes,
Let’s cut public services so that they can drain our economy more, the little people won’t mind
Indeed sometimes the benefit of a new tax is not how much money it brings in, but the behaviours it incentivises.
Just like the CGT :mregreen:
Just about every other country is intervening in its currency using many different devices .China has no problem setting it currency so all its productive sectors can make a steady profit. The only ones that make a steady profit in New Zealand are the untaxed speculators . They are nothing but leaches on the productive sectors !New Zealand is one of the very few countries that allow the productive sector to be annihilated every time one of our sectors stars making a profit so hence we borrow more to keep the economy afloat which makes the currency more volatile
Sorry, but if you’re going to claim that someone is ‘profiting’ from the dollar, then you better include consumers, which is pretty much everyone. Oil would be at least a dollar more expensive if the USD were to fall by 30c, which would impact every good in the country. So consumers do benefit from the higher dollar too.
Just remember, it always go volatile just before the meltdown…
Zetetic – I am sure your graph is accurate but the point I think you are trying to make is wrong. It is the so-called speculators who keep the currency relatively stable. If there were no speculators, everytime Air New Zealand bought a new plane or Fonterra brought back dividends from its offshore investors, the currency would swing massively. The speculators means that such transactions don’t singificantly affect the value of the currency. This means, ironically, that real businesspeople – eg Air New Zealand, Fonterra, etc – can rely on the value of the currency much more than if the speculators weren’t involved. This seems a stretch at 88c but its still true!
Yes but our lefty friends on the whole don’t understand the benefit of having liquid markets Matthew.
To many of them all speculation is inherently evil and should be stamped out. Prices should be set at fair value and managed under the auspices of a benevolent and just Government agency.
That is a point he has, tangential and minor