Colmar Brunton

Written By: - Date published: 3:39 pm, March 17th, 2008 - 11 comments
Categories: election 2008, polls - Tags: ,

TVNZ had another Colmar Brunton poll last night. The gap between National and Labour remains substantial, but has closed by four points since last poll.

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UPDATE: In a comical twist that bodes poorly for Jim Anderton and Peter Dunne, it seems Colmar Brunton has the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party now polling as high as both of their parties combined. Oh dear.

[Hat-tip: Sam]

11 comments on “Colmar Brunton ”

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  1. Patrick 1
    17 March 2008 at 4:40 pm

    While the numbers certainly aren’t great for Labour, they could be far worse.

    Certainly if an election result looked like that Key would be slipping his way into Premier House before Christmas, but I really think, and hope, that Labour (or the Greens) can grab another 5% off soft National voters. Really I think that’s all it would take.

    On another tangent, is someone with a better knowledge of these things able to explain why there isn’t any overhang? Is it because the Maori Party vote has increased?

  2. Santi 2
    17 March 2008 at 4:42 pm

    Could this be the “dead cat bounce” ala sharemarket? I doubt it.

    Although there is long way to go in the political year, the trend has been upward for national, downward for Labour.

    The staunch Labourites at The Standard better get prepared to become the opposition come certain date in November 2008.

    Only a miracle would save the socialists from oblivion. Unlikely but possible, so it cannot be discounted.

  3. Patrick 3
    17 March 2008 at 4:52 pm

    A miracle, Santi?

    I think it would take significantly less, say, umm, oh, a debate between Key and Clark on policy matters.

  4. BeShakey 4
    17 March 2008 at 4:53 pm

    The only thing that can be guaranteed is that National won’t get over 50% of the vote. For an example of how dramatically the vote can fall look at Labour in 2002 – polling at 55% that then dropped to 30% (figures from memory but are roughly right). They won the election because National did so appallingly badly.

  5. sdm 5
    17 March 2008 at 6:22 pm

    Well considering the economy is going to go bad in a big way, led by the property market, any incumbent government is going to struggle

  6. Dean Knight 6
    17 March 2008 at 8:09 pm

    Okay – change one of the assumptions based on recent polling: Maori Party wins 7 electorate seats. Now recalculate:

    Party name Party Votes won Total MPs
    Act New Zealand 0.90% 1
    Green Party 7.00% 9
    Jim Anderton’s Progressive 0.00% 1
    Labour Party 35.00% 44
    Maori Party 3.30% 7
    National Party 50.00% 62
    United Future New Zealand 0.00% 1
    Totals 96.20% 125

  7. Phil 7
    18 March 2008 at 11:23 am

    Doing the sums in my head, that ends up with a hung parliament under all plausible scenarios unless Nat-MP coalition goes ahead?

    Alternatively, Labour needs the MP, the Greens, JAP, and UFNZ all under the same roof… ouch.

  8. dave 8
    18 March 2008 at 6:33 pm

    Dean, shouldnt htere be one extra seat given that Jim Andertons seat will also be an overhang?

  9. Hillary 9
    18 March 2008 at 6:40 pm

    If a week is a long time in politics, then from now until the election is a bloody eternity for Labour to regain support. Particularly from Key’s point of view as he increasingly comes under the spotlight and is found wanting.

  10. Jimmy 10
    18 March 2008 at 7:20 pm

    I’m voting ALCP.

  11. Hillary 11
    18 March 2008 at 7:39 pm

    Might be some National supporters doing the same before long, or atleast resorting to it.