Daily review 04/10/2023

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1. Stephen D 1

   4 October 2023 at 5:44 pm

   Another tourist town v short term rentals.

   https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300982251/the-italian-city-fighting-back-against-the-likes-of-airbnb
   • Roy Cartland 1.1

     4 October 2023 at 6:15 pm

     Good!
2. Bearded Git 2

   4 October 2023 at 6:06 pm

   Tonights TV1 poll:

   Lab 26 Gre 13 TPM 2 =41

   Nat 36 Act 10 =46

   NZF are on 6

   Undecided 10

   The Left must hope Peters gets 4.9 then it is all still on with the gap only 5 (46-41).

   In this poll the Greens have now overtaken ACT who went down 2.

   I still reckon TPM will get more than 2.
   • Belladonna 2.1

     4 October 2023 at 6:16 pm

     Report here

     https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-1news-verian-poll-to-reveal-if-national-act-need-nz-first-and-if-labour-has-turned-things-around/74UOPZZ6DVB2ZMENCVH2JTY5TU/
   • Belladonna 2.2

     4 October 2023 at 6:19 pm

     If NZF gets 4.9% on these figures – then there is a National/ACT government (the wasted votes are proportionally redistributed). I don't see that as something the Left should hope for….
     • Bearded Git 2.2.1

       4 October 2023 at 6:27 pm

       Bella-of course not. I thought it was clear what I was saying but let me spell it out.

       If NZF get 4.9% AND there is a (relatively small) 2.6% swing to the Left and/or there is an error in the polling of 2.6%, then the Left will win.
       • Ngungukai 2.2.1.1

         4 October 2023 at 6:38 pm

         I think NZF will get 8-9% come Election Night, NZF always poll 2-3% above the polls historically and voters will see Winston as a Handbrake whether he goes Left or Right IMHO.
         • Bearded Git 2.2.1.1.1

           4 October 2023 at 6:53 pm

           You could be right Ngung. Though from memory NZF doesn't always poll as well on the night as it polls on TV1/TV3. You will have to provide proof that it regularly polls better.
           • Ngungukai 2.2.1.1.1.1

             4 October 2023 at 7:11 pm

             Just going from memory however 2020 was a disaster for NZF and they may have polled less than the pre Election polls, gut feeling they may do better this time unless Winston & Shane Jones shoot themselves in the feet again ???
           • Belladonna 2.2.1.1.1.2

             4 October 2023 at 7:14 pm

             Given that polls are quite widely variant, it's difficult to provide absolute evidence – but there is a small tendency for NZF to deliver better election results than polling suggests.

             Looking at the range of poll results in the month before the election compared to the actual result:

             2020 3.5 – 2.4% 2.6

             2017 11 – 4.9% 6.2%

             2014 8.4 – 4.4% 6.66%

             2011 6.5 – 1.7% 6.59%

             So – they deliver in the mid-top part of the polling range – and sometimes exceed it (cf 2011)

             This is the reverse of the Green party – which tends to poll better than their election results deliver.

             I would put this difference down to turnout. Traditionally NZF appeals to golden oldies – who overwhelmingly vote; and the GP to the younger crowd who often don't [yes, yes, I know, wild generalization]

             Whether that holds true for this election — time will tell. Peters is deliberately appealing to a very different electorate this time around.

             https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election

             https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_New_Zealand_general_election

             https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2014_New_Zealand_general_election

             https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2011_New_Zealand_general_election
       • weka 2.2.1.2

         4 October 2023 at 9:52 pm

         these figures give a hung parliament.

         Lab 30%

         GP 13

         TPM 2 (plus 2 seats)

         NZF 4.9

         Nat 36

         Act 10

         Other parties 4.1
         • Bearded Git 2.2.1.2.1

           4 October 2023 at 10:26 pm

           Exactly Weka…interesting days ahead.
   • Dennis Frank 2.3

     4 October 2023 at 6:26 pm

     Apart from ACT things were same as last week’s poll, so it's a mystery where that 2% from ACT went. Undecided remaining steady is an indication of how unimpressed or disengaged they are. Chippy was chipper in his comments – no reference to his failure to lift Labour, seems not to have occurred to him & the interviewer didn't point the fact out to him either. Polls are ephemeral, no need to get real yet!
     • Belladonna 2.3.1

       4 October 2023 at 7:23 pm

       I'd say it's just margin of error. The rats-and-mice parties are described as being up – so suspect that's the adjustment made.
   • Ngungukai 2.4

     4 October 2023 at 6:35 pm

     Agree TPM will definitely get for 4 or 5 seats.
     • Belladonna 2.4.1

       4 October 2023 at 6:50 pm

       I think you may well be correct – I don't have real confidence that any of the mainstream polls are penetrating the Maori roll effectively. But those votes, will come off the Labour total (Maori seats). It's possible that this might result in a single seat overhang (TPM have more electorate seats than party vote).
   • Tiger Mountain 2.5

     4 October 2023 at 7:55 pm

     Agree Git, TPM are underpolling, they have been running a good ground campaign for months.
   • Ad 2.6

     4 October 2023 at 9:06 pm

     Just fucking sad.
3. pat 3

   4 October 2023 at 6:30 pm

   He may be loved to be hated here but when Labour are polling 26% (against a useless and openly tax/services light opposition) what he observes is worth taking note of.

   https://pointofordernz.wordpress.com/2023/10/04/bryce-edwards-ten-reasons-labours-support-has-halved/
   • Bearded Git 3.1

     4 October 2023 at 6:55 pm

     Remember Bryce is a National Party patsy. Most of the time he attacks the Left.
     • pat 3.1.1

       4 October 2023 at 7:39 pm

       In your opinion…his history would suggest otherwise, but never mind.
       • Anne 3.1.1.1

         4 October 2023 at 8:27 pm

         He's a male version of Josie Pagani. Pretending to be from the Left. Maybe he was once, but he prefers his bread and butter life experiences to have a good coating of jam. He knows what his paymasters want from him just as Josie P does.
       • gsays 3.1.1.2

         4 October 2023 at 8:53 pm

         Funny, two critiques of the messenger, nothing about the message.

         There was some serious food for thought. High expectations, especially with a majority in the second term but underwhelming delivery.

         The lack of discipline amongst cabinet ministers to lose 4 in quick succession, 3 because of integrity.

         What does Labour stand for?
         • Drowsy M. Kram 3.1.1.2.1

           4 October 2023 at 10:00 pm

           – Number 1 Platoon, B Company…
           – Not the Wardens.

           Don't know about Labour, but NAct stand for 'discipline' – as much as the electorate can bear, or more. Hum along with NAct – not the "bottom feeders".

           “We must get New Zealand’s economic engine humming again and these initiatives will be part of restoring fiscal discipline that taxpayers deserve, and the economy needs.”

           On National’s Tax Cuts [31 August 2023]
           Revealingly, National’s chart setting out the potential income gains has omitted everyone earning below $30,000 as if they don’t exist – and that’s an accurate reflection of how the “bottom feeders” simply don’t register on the centre-right’s voter radar.

           Anyone else remember "Starve the Country Rich"?

           Why are so many people going hungry in such a rich country?
           It used to be said that Britain was a rich country with pockets of depravation [sic]. Many years of rising inequality and economic vandalism means that we are now a poor country with some rich people living in it.

           National's fiscal plan revealed: 'Less tax, lower debt' [29 Sept]
           “In a cost-of-living crisis it is morally wrong to put more kids in poverty to pay for the tax cuts of millionaires and property speculators."

           Party Vote Green (or TPM – their Wealth Tax is good too.)

           https://www.greens.org.nz/ending_poverty_together
           • gsays 3.1.1.2.1.1

             4 October 2023 at 10:16 pm

             You make my point brilliantly.

             When asked "What does Labour stand for?" you say you don't know. Not unreasonable, any impartial observer would see they have lost their way. From the redtape bonfire replaced with nothing, ministers dropping like flies, a Prime Minister that cites polling as a reason not bring a wealth tax (or any meaningful tax reform), a union man as health minister resisting giving nurses pay parity and a pay rise in the shadow of a global pandemic!

             For all their faults and as abhorrent as their aims and values are, the Nacts stand for something.
             • Drowsy M. Kram …

               4 October 2023 at 11:12 pm

               For all their faults and as abhorrent as their aims and values are, the Nacts stand for something.

               Yes – NAct stand for abhorrent aims consistent with their values.
               Maybe they have other faults, but who could claim to know all of them?

               I don't need to know everything Labour stands for – just that 'they' are a major NZ political party whose leader is unlikely to ever refer to Kiwis as "bottom feeders", or talk about a coalition of chaos with National, NZF, ACT and maybe white supremacists.

               Party Vote Green (or TPM – their Wealth Tax is good too.)

               https://www.greens.org.nz/ending_poverty_together
         • Patricia Bremner 3.1.1.2.2

           5 October 2023 at 5:09 am

           Labour =People rather than National =Money Pat.
           Plus they are a punitive one tax trick pony.
           We know what Bryce is… but you???
           • pat 3.1.1.2.2.1

             5 October 2023 at 6:11 am

             What am I Patricia?

             I am a father and grandfather who sees a very troubled future for his offspring (and their peers) being failed by a bereft political class.

             What I am not is a sycopant.
           • gsays 3.1.1.2.2.2

             5 October 2023 at 6:33 am

             "…but you???"

             I am a bitterly disappointed, blue collar worker with a family. My wife is a nurse of just shy 30 yrs experience. My grandfather was an organiser that had a photograph of the Queen on his wall and ever so slightly higher, a photograph of MJ Savage. TBH, I think you and I are very closely aligned politically.

             Let down by a party that left me in the '80's and more recently has moved ever so close to National. A party that had a once in a lifetime opportunity to make meaningful changes to the system. But chose to listen to their advisors and pollsters and other members of the professional management class, because they seem to fail to have over riding principles.

             Welfare for working people. It's so sad what we have become and what we will settle for in our politicians.

             Just cause Bryce Edwards isn't on yr Christmas card list, doesn't mean he can't say some uncomfortable truths.
4. Anne 4

   4 October 2023 at 6:39 pm

   Did I hear Luxon say on TV1 news:

   "the most positive thing Hipkins has ever done is get Covid"?

   Ok I get the pun, but to me that comes across as truly nasty. In other words he and his mates are dancing with joy because Hipkins caught Covid on the campaign trail.

   So much for his lack of ethics, integrity and maturity. Not in a lifetime would Hipkins – or any senior Labour/Green politician – stoop so low as to say something like that.
   • Belladonna 4.1

     4 October 2023 at 6:54 pm

     Oh, I don't know… here's Grant Robertson having the time of his life roasting Collins and the rest of the National Party in Parliament.

     https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/deputy-pm-grant-robertsons-merciless-roast-of-judith-collins-and-the-national-partys-woes/OHAVY3JSUQJRVNSXOUTEV3UX6U/
     • Roy Cartland 4.1.1

       4 October 2023 at 7:04 pm

       What in that article did you find particularly nasty?
       • Belladonna 4.1.1.1

         4 October 2023 at 7:25 pm

         I found "Night of the plastic knives" rather distasteful.

         But wouldn't have felt it necessary to make a song and dance about it.

         Simply evidence that many politicians have a strong tradition of poking the borax at each other.
         • Roy Cartland 4.1.1.1.1

           4 October 2023 at 7:39 pm

           It's have to agree, Lux was pretty distasteful; but hardly in the league of Winston Peters who called Brendan Horan the "Jimmy Savile" of NZ politics! Or the wongs-whites comments he made that he thought was so funny. Gross.
   • SapphireGem 4.2

     4 October 2023 at 7:20 pm

     Yeah, making a joke about someone's illness isn't a very Christian thing to do, is it?
   • joe90 4.3

     4 October 2023 at 7:29 pm

     You heard right.

     .

     While it was "a shame" Hipkins came down with the coronavirus, he said: "It’s probably the only thing he’s been positive about in the whole campaign, to be honest with you."

     https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/10/04/covid-the-only-thing-hipkins-has-been-positive-about-luxon/
     • Ngungukai 4.3.1

       4 October 2023 at 7:51 pm

       Definitely not a very Christian like thing to say by Luxon, however these Pollies can not help themselves.
   • Vivie 4.4

     4 October 2023 at 7:48 pm

     Yes Anne. I saw that TV One news item. Luxon commented that the only positive thing Hipkins had done (I think he was referring to the campaign) was to get Covid. A tasteless, spiteful remark. Luxon repeatedly stated that the Labour Government has committed "economic vandalism". He dismissed as incorrect, Goldman Sachs' analysis that National's tax plan is inflationary, as he has done with other critics of the tax plan.

     https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2310/S00025/nationals-tax-plan-likely-to-push-up-kiwis-mortgage-rates.htm

     "The new analysis from Goldman Sachs reported in the Herald today follows economist Cameron Bagrie when he said: “National tax plan is inflationary.” And economists Michael Reddell, Sam Warburton and Nick Goodall have said the policy to lift the foreign buyer ban for houses over $2m will cause greater house price inflation in New Zealand below the $2m mark as well".

     Luxon said that Hipkins was completely negative and is waking up "grumpy". Luxon then proceeded to attack Labour and Hipkins. He is clearly trying to create a negative narrative about Hipkins, for pointing out that economists have identified National's tax plan doesn't add up. It will obviously cause considerable, compounding socio-economic damage to NZ, but by being filmed rushing about campaigning, Luxon is managing to avoid being challenged in any depth about this.
     • Ngungukai 4.4.1

       4 October 2023 at 7:52 pm

       Luxon now playing the man not the ball ???
   • gsays 4.5

     4 October 2023 at 8:25 pm

     Heh, and the chicken routine was honourable.
     • Anne 4.5.1

       4 October 2023 at 8:37 pm

       Get a sense of humour!

       The chicken joke was appropriate. Everyone knows Luxon used the occasion to 'chicken' out of another debate with Hipkins. He has neither the wit nor intellect to keep up with Chippy. No comparison between that and declaring somebody with Covid has finally done something positive – a bit like inferring Hipkins is a version of the biblical leper so we need to keep well away from him. Nasty as….
       • gsays 4.5.1.1

         4 October 2023 at 8:58 pm

         ….or

         Hipkins desperately needed the debate and didn't have faith in Kelvin Davis to do the job against Willis. And National were prudent not to give a sucker a break.
         • Anne 4.5.1.1.1

           4 October 2023 at 9:04 pm

           Luxon is the one who chickened out. Not Hipkins. Trying to divert attention by introducing the name of another Labour politician has no relevance.

           Luxon… chickened… out. Get it?
         • Louis 4.5.1.1.2

           5 October 2023 at 5:21 am

           Ben McKay

           @benmackey Oct 3

           Hipkins tells AM Labour put forward Grant Robertson as a debate stand-in tonight. "Unfortunately the National party weren't happy with that"

           Press editor Kamala Hayman confirmed National was asked if Luxon would debate Robertson, to avoid the need to reschedule the event.

           https://twitter.com/cjsbishop/status/1708942683811856572
5. Reality 5

   4 October 2023 at 6:55 pm

   If Luxon's comment is correct about the PM and Covid, it confirms my long held view that many Nats are plain nasty human beings. His so-called Christianity has well and truly been dumped. The sneer on the face of Erica Stanford for example is horrible to see.
6. Roy Cartland 6

   4 October 2023 at 7:09 pm

   7pm.

   Hipkins is doing a "town hall" q and a session stuff right now. In lieu of the debate he didn't get to do I guess.
   • SapphireGem 6.1

     4 October 2023 at 7:25 pm

     Thanks for the heads up – I'm going to try to watch it wherever it's available later. I hope it goes / is going well for him.

     My impression is that Luxon was desperate to NOT debate Hipkins, after Hipkins thrashed him in the Paddy Gower moderated debate. Once Hipkins got Covid, it was the perfect opportunity for Luxon to weasel out of the Press debate – he didn’t even try to hide his evident relief at not having to face Hipkins again in a challenging environment.

     Of course Luxon is looking forward to the Jessica Mutch-Mackay moderated debate next Thursday, because she has already in the first debate demonstrated her ineptitude as a moderator, her shallowness and superficiality, and her bias towards Luxon
     • Louis 6.1.1

       5 October 2023 at 5:25 am

       SapphireGem

       Here is a link to the virtual town hall meeting.

       https://www.facebook.com/NZLabourParty/videos/1501070117100145/
       • SapphireGem 6.1.1.1

         5 October 2023 at 8:29 pm

         Thank you Louis
   • Roy Cartland 6.2

     4 October 2023 at 7:26 pm

     He's got a charm and personability that DeLuxe just ain't. Also, he's talking up LP's many achievements, something that's been sorely missing from this election.

     (Also, it seems a bit weird that the questioner has Labour signs up as well, I thought it was a Stuff thing?)
     • Louis 6.2.1

       5 October 2023 at 5:28 am

       Not Stuff. Jill Day is the president of the Labour Party.
       • PsyclingLeft.Always 6.2.1.1

         5 October 2023 at 7:40 am

         Good Morn Louis. I know Darien Fenton has previously commented on some of Labours many achievements on The Standard. Would it be possible for someone to do something similar again?

         I'm still optimistic that the Left will carry the win !
         • Louis 6.2.1.1.1

           6 October 2023 at 9:09 pm

           Hello PsyclingLeft.Always. Here are some examples, does this help?

           https://www.labour.org.nz/our-record
           • PsyclingLeft.Always 6.2.1.1.1.1

             7 October 2023 at 8:34 am

             Hi Louis. That is great. I certainly knew a lot of them..but seeing it on the Link..really highlights them.

             Those who bag Labour on the Standard maybe arent the type who appreciate what Labour has achieved. And would never acknowledge same..but I definitely do.

             Thankyou Louis, and Labour : )
             • Louis …

               7 October 2023 at 10:14 pm

               
   • ianmac 6.3

     4 October 2023 at 8:15 pm

     Watched the whole hour of our PM Q&A. Good fun though he was talking to Labour supporters I think. A bit wooden but with only a camera to respond to it was understandable. Theme was the pride in our achievements and the facts that challenge the Nact false claims.

     eg: the S&P workings today show that the Nat Tax cuts will be inflationary which means longer inflation and more Cost of L. Luxon rubbished that of course but can't explain why S&P were wrong.
7. SPC 7

   4 October 2023 at 7:24 pm

   For a month National has claimed couples with children would get up to $250 a fortnight ($125 a week).

   the Council of Trade Unions – a strong Labour ally – claims only 3000 households would actually benefit from the maximum tax cut National's offering.
   It said its tax plan will help up to $250 a fortnight.

   To get that, the family must be spending at least $300 a fortnight on childcare, and it needs two adults earning between $53,500 and $66,000 to get the $25.30 per week tax cut.

   The Council of Trade Unions has worked out just how many families would get that – it estimates about 3000 households would.

   https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/10/election-2023-council-of-trade-unions-analysis-reveals-number-of-households-that-could-benefit-from-national-s-maximum-tax-cut-offering.html

   A rule of thumb – many get $10 a week from the IETC adjustment and others those over the median (to about $120,000) get that and an extra $15 from threshhold adjustments.

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