Open mike 05/10/2023

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, October 5th, 2023 - 90 comments
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For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

90 comments on “Open mike 05/10/2023 ”

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  1. Stephen D 1
    5 October 2023 at 6:50 am

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2023/oct/04/bicibus-how-barcelona-got-kids-cycling-safely-to-school?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    The only reason this wouldn’t work in Aotearoa is the entitled attitude of drivers.

    Shame, really.

    Healthier kids, less school run traffic, camaraderie, what’s not to like?

    • Belladonna 1.1
      5 October 2023 at 8:27 pm

      Auckland's been running walking school buses for years (possibly other cities as well, but I know about the Auckland ones because I used to be a volunteer).
      They fluctuate in popularity – numbers drop fairly rapidly in wet weather (so pretty low after the never-ending raid of this year).

      Virtually every primary school in Auckland would have the vast majority of the kids attending within a 20-30 minute walk.
      But, the numbers walking are an order of magnitude fewer than those being driven.

      This seems to be the case in your Barcelona example as well. 60-70 kids (on a good day) – and 15 routes for a city of 1.2 million people.

      It's a nice 'feel good' story, but it's not the answer to getting parents to stop driving kids to school.

    • Muttonbird 2.1
      5 October 2023 at 7:46 am

      Desperate from the National Party. They know they are in trouble.

      Also a clear conflict of interest because as chairman of ANZ his only purpose is to increase profits for ANZ. He doesn't exist for anything else, so in that video he must, by definition, be campaigning for increased profits for a foreign owned bank.

      • Dennis Frank 2.1.1
        5 October 2023 at 7:50 am

        No worries, the only voters likely to be influenced by Key have already been polled as Nat supporters since the start of polling. Clueless dork syndrome.

        • Muttonbird 2.1.1.1
          5 October 2023 at 8:05 am

          Yeah, Key appealing to these new and returning NZF voters seems remarkably unaware for someone with apparently so much political acumen.

      • Ngungukai 2.1.2
        5 October 2023 at 8:01 am

        ANZ will profit from the lending to Saudi Arabian property buyers buying $2.0 million dollar plus homes here in NZ which is a key part of National's revenue gathering scheme. Ref Nikki Willis.

      • higherstandard 2.1.3
        5 October 2023 at 10:26 am

        I suggest you familiarise yourself with how members of Boards of companies work and what their responsibilities are.

        • Ngungukai 2.1.3.1
          5 October 2023 at 1:26 pm

          Their responsibilities are to generate the maximum amount of revenue and profit to their shareholders.

          • Incognito 2.1.3.1.1
            5 October 2023 at 1:46 pm

            As long as it is ‘pretty legal’, which is why it is essential to have as many lawmakers in their pockets as possible and preferably in Government [no intention to suggest corruption, quite the opposite].

            If NZF-ACT-Nat form the next Government, expect a turbulent period of deregulation of economic policies and tightening of social policies. This will only go as far as to open the money tap for the owners’ class with a trickle & carefully controlled drip for the working class and Precariat. The so-called tax cuts are a cynical sideshow that is paraded out every time, as are the Law & Order kneejerks and good ole beneficiary bashing. The more anxiety (fear) & uncertainty there is the better.

    • Ngungukai 2.2
      5 October 2023 at 7:56 am

      Might back fire on National ???

    • Ad 2.3
      5 October 2023 at 8:11 am

      I'd sure hope Hipkins can persuade Helen Clark to do the same.

      This is US-style proxy campaigning from very powerful national figures.

      You'd be surprised how many women are still voting Labour because … Jacinda.

    • Incognito 2.4
      5 October 2023 at 10:31 am

      John Key is a FIRE Chief.

    • Drowsy M. Kram 2.5
      5 October 2023 at 12:31 pm

      'Honest' John couldn't sell voters on his pick for a new flag – he resigned 9 months later.

      Maybe Key will have better lux selling his anoited one as a new PM.

      The anointed one
      Luxon had Sir John in his camp for this leadership bid and was guiding him, and although Key wouldn’t have been working the phones, he didn’t need to – party members knew.

    • Bryan Dods 2.6
      5 October 2023 at 1:40 pm

      I have written to ANZ asking if they think Key's message is appropriate for his position as chairman.

      Do they think it is suitable behaviour for ANZ staff?

      Would they prefer only National voters for customers? If so, will they advise me so that I can make arrangements with my account.

      • Drowsy M. Kram 2.6.1
        5 October 2023 at 9:50 pm

        I think you'll find that ANZ is pretty comfortable with Sir John's political meddling.

        National’s real aim? Get New Zealand Unearned Income Back on Track

        Gotta keep those big donors happy.

  3. PsyclingLeft.Always 3
    5 October 2023 at 7:30 am

    a well-known advocate and campaigner for the National Party,

    Te Pāti Māori says a man unlawfully entered the home of its fourth-ranked candidate Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke and police trespassed him.

    Party president John Tamihere said Maipi-Clarke's home was entered unlawfully on Wednesday morning and the incident was politically motivated.

    Tamihere said race-baiting by National and ACT had empowered and emboldened this sort of behaviour, which he said was another in a string of attacks on Maipi-Clarke in the past week.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/499429/te-pati-maori-candidate-s-home-entered-unlawfully-man-trespassed-party-president

    This sort of behaviour,,incl slapping Labours Angela Roberts.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/499100/green-party-and-te-pati-maori-call-out-harmful-emboldening-of-extremism-after-incidents

    Emboldened . IMO what was always there..has indeed become emboldened.

    • Bearded Git 3.1
      5 October 2023 at 7:47 am

      This is a disgusting incident symbolic of the aggressive and nasty National Party campaign.

      When this awful story came out a couple of days ago National quickly came out with (made up?) stories about dog attacks etc on their candidates. As usual the MSM was easily deflected from the main story by these "they do it to us too" stories when in fact it was a completely false equivalence.

      On another issue entirely, John Key has just been reported on Radio NZ as saying that people should vote for National and not other parties if they want a strong government, a clear dig at NZF. Doubt if it will make much difference but….

    • Dennis Frank 3.2
      5 October 2023 at 7:48 am

      RNZ news, morning report, said that home invader was pakeha. The cops just trespassed him?? Didn't arrest him??

      I bet if a maori activist had done a home invasion of a young pakeha woman he'd have been charged & prosecuted! Local cops there must be an infestation of Nat voters.

      • Jester 3.2.1
        5 October 2023 at 8:43 am

        No it would have been home D, as that is the punishment for everything these days (even attacking an unarmed person with a sword).

        • Dennis Frank 3.2.1.1
          5 October 2023 at 9:20 am

          Are things really that bad? A somewhat gloom-inducing scenario, huh? Whatever happened to Laura Norder? Evaporation?

        • Mike the Lefty 3.2.1.2
          5 October 2023 at 12:35 pm

          You are getting everything jumbled up in your excitement, the courts decide the punishment, not the police.

    • gsays 3.3
      5 October 2023 at 10:05 am

      Hopefully it is a real sign of how fearful the Nats are of TPM's popularity.

      As Dennis points out, reverse the roles and I doubt a slap on the wrist a trespass notice would be the outcome.

      There does seem to be seriously entrenched, and as you say emboldened attitude this election period.

    • Terry 3.4
      5 October 2023 at 3:56 pm

      We live in a society where violence and trespassing is not considered serious.

      I was assaulted by a couple of guys, they got off with a police warning.

      I was off work for 6 months recovering from concussion.

      Given the states response to what happened to me, you could probably shoot a politician before anyone could give a stuff.

  4. Dennis Frank 4
    5 October 2023 at 7:55 am

    Amazing! An establishment leader demonstrating credibility & authenticity! Never thought I'd see that in my lifetime!

    The pope criticised global decision-making bodies for being ineffective… The Pope criticised those who "deny, conceal, gloss over or relativise the issue", saying that it was no longer possible to deny the human origins of climate change. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-67005362

    He also took aim at "irresponsible lifestyles", particularly in the Western world. He said that emissions per person in the US were about two times greater than those living in China, and about seven times greater than those in the poorest countries.

    The pope said a "broad change in the irresponsible lifestyle connected with the Western model", would have a "significant long-term impact".

    • Ad 4.1
      5 October 2023 at 8:14 am

      It's been a decade since he put out Laudate Se, which is one of the first to popularise the key connection between global poverty and human-induced climate change.

      This new piece from Pope Francis just builds on that with a bit more invective against lazy countries.

      He is also basically at all-out war with the conservative and rich North American bishops.

      • Dennis Frank 4.1.1
        5 October 2023 at 8:22 am

        I recall posting a supportive message onsite here about that. This new initiative from him shows some acumen:

        In remarks referring to world governing bodies, Pope Francis calls for a new global "procedure for decision making", adding the process "put in place several decades ago is not sufficient nor does it appear effective."

        "Whatever is being done risks being seen only as a ploy to distract attention," he says in a remark aimed at politicians, particularly concerning what he sees as a transition from the use of fossil fuels to clean energy sources that he sees as happening too slowly to be effective. Pope Francis acknowledged that some progress was made through the COP summits but criticised the lack of sanctions if commitments were not fulfilled.

        He added that some recommendations in the latest international agreement, from COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh, were too vague.

        The pope also warned against placing too much hope in carbon capture technologies, suggesting that was akin to "papering over the cracks." "To suppose that all problems in the future will be able to be solved by new technical interventions is a form of homicidal pragmatism, like pushing a snowball down a hill," he said.

        Pointing to the psychopathology of world leaders is a smart move! Dumb buggers may even get the message. Leverage via moral guidance.

  5. Dennis Frank 5
    5 October 2023 at 8:05 am

    Donnie will be ropeable:

    Donald Trump has dropped off the Forbes 400 ranking of the wealthiest people in the US for the second time in three years, the magazine announced on Wednesday https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/04/trump-forbes-400-list-2023-billionaires

    However he could use it in his political positioning. A marketing strategy: "Yeah, I'm no longer part of the elite. I'm just another loser like you guys. We ought to do solidarity, huh? Worked for the left when I was a kid."

  6. Ffloyd 6
    5 October 2023 at 8:53 am

    Just saw the video of the great sirjohnkey reduced to BEGGING for people to vote for his puppets. Luxon must be getting tired of being dangled from keysknees.

    Made my day. ……..btw he still hasn’t learned to speak proper lol ..off for a coffee and another laugh now Good times.😂

    • AB 6.1
      5 October 2023 at 9:02 am

      They're at the staring line waiting for the orgy of looting and revenge to begin – gleefully tanked up on whatever their preference is. They don't want to be stopped now. It will get fascinatingly ugly if they are.

  7. weka 7
    5 October 2023 at 9:20 am

    has anyone done the maths on the Te Pāti Māori party vote and what gives the best chance for a centre left government?

    • weka 7.1
      5 October 2023 at 9:22 am

      looks like they roughly need 1.7% of the vote to get a third MP on top of the two current electorate MPs. Does that sound right?

      • Binders full of Women 7.1.1
        5 October 2023 at 4:24 pm

        No Weka- I think 1.7% would give them close to exactly 2 MPs. It would give them 2.04 MPs out of 120 which feels a long way from 3 MPs in total. So if their PV matches the number of elec MPs they get no more off the list. I think they need to get 3.6% of the vote to get a 3rd (list) MP. Ikaroa Rawhiti- where I live will be very interesting. Does Meka's defection hurt her or help her with voters. She has a pretty solid local following- vs Cushla (Lab) is pretty fresh. I am leaning to a Meka win so there's your 3rd TPM MP and maybe even an overhang.

  8. tsmithfield 8
    5 October 2023 at 9:35 am

    I heard James Shaw interviewed on ZB this morning. I actually really like James Shaw, and think he talks a lot of common sense btw.

    But he appeared to get himself in knots over the NZ First question. First he was asked which would be the most chaotic government; NACT/NZFirst or Labour/Greens/TMP. He said definitely NACT/NZFirst would be the most chaotic.

    Then he was asked about his time in government with NZ First. He seemed to get all whimsical, recollecting how good things were in government with NZ First there. How they used to have to get consensus on policy etc, and how that improved the process.

    I think this illustrates the problem Labour face trying to portray an NACT/NZFirst coalition as a chaotic mess. The reason is that a lot of those in government now likely have NZ First to thank for that.

    And, I think many voters actually preferred the way that government was when NZ First was in government with Labour/Greens, in that there was a road block to more extreme policies.

    So, I think Labour need to be a bit careful with their messaging. Otherwise, they might be promoting a concept to voters that many voters actually quite like the sound of.

    • Ngungukai 8.1
      5 October 2023 at 10:12 am

      If we had managed to have a Labour/NZF/Greens Coalition for the last 3 years I don't think we would be having this Dogs Breakfast of an Election now, the country threw there weight in behind Labour at the last Election not realising a lot of the balance and policies were being driven by NZF and it's experienced MP's like Tracey Martin, Ron Mark and Winston Peters.

    • bwaghorn 8.2
      5 October 2023 at 10:19 am

      Your glossing over the fact Winston, and Shaw don't hate each other, unlike seymour and Winston,

      • tsmithfield 8.2.1
        5 October 2023 at 10:33 am

        It may be that the anomosity at the moment due to the fact that they are effectively competing with each other for the share of government.

        But, whatever. There are often circumstances in life where you have to find a way to work with people you don't like. That is just behaving professionally. There may well be people in the All Blacks who don't like each other on a personal level. But that doesn't mean they can't perform as a team.

        So, I don’t see personal likes or dislikes as a major factor as to whether a government can function or not.

        • Incognito 8.2.1.1
          5 October 2023 at 11:01 am

          A NZF-ACT-Nat potpourri is nothing like a well-coached and well-trained team of professionals and it would be three groupings of wannabies without any meaningful merits with three captains, three coaches, three trainers, and at least three gangs of rowdy supporters coming together.

          • tsmithfield 8.2.1.1.1
            5 October 2023 at 11:19 am

            What you describe sounds pretty much like politics as normal to me. Most political parties seem like that internally anyway from what I have seen.

            • Incognito 8.2.1.1.1.1
              5 October 2023 at 11:40 am

              The AB analogy works as well as saying that a small business or a household are like running a national economy & governing a country (in turbulent times). These kinds of simplistic reckons dumb down reality to fairy-tale-level wishful thinking that can and is used to justify just about anything.

              For political parties to work well together there are a few basic requirements: common values & principles, common policies, mutual trust & respect, effective leadership, individual & collective resilience, and broad public support.

              • tsmithfield …
                5 October 2023 at 11:52 am

                For political parties to work well together there are a few basic requirements: common values & principles, common policies, mutual trust & respect, effective leadership, individual & collective resilience, and broad public support.

                Common values and principles: I could name a few areas of intersection between NACT?NZFirst. For instance, one being law and order where each of those parties want to crack down harder on crime.

                Mutual trust and respect: I guess that is to be seen in practice. But, mutual trust and respect doesn't require individuals to like each other.

                Effective Leadership: Whatever you want to say about Luxon, there is no doubt he has achieved a lot as leader of National in terms of improving its results compared to where it was at the last election. And, in the latest TV1 poll he had pulled ahead of Hipkins as preferred Prime Minister. So, I guess results thus far speak for themselves.

                Individual and collective resilience: I guess that is self-evident in that National, in particular has endured several very tough years but has come out the other side. Likewise NZ First has survived being dumped out of government and is making a comeback. ACT has gone from around 1% support or less at one point, and is now looking like a major player.

                So, I think the evidence is easy to see on that point.

                Broad Public support: Again, that will be tautologically true if they are able to form a government given that together they will have the majority of the vote in order to achieve that.

                • Incognito …
                  5 October 2023 at 2:47 pm

                  A hard-line punitive Law & Order regime is indeed common ground of those three parties. It’s easy and populist and doesn’t solve any of the complex problems long-term and they know it. In fact, it’s a major lifeline for their support.

                  It’s tautological that many people only hear what they what to hear and only look as far (and with one eye) to confirm their bias. Few will go one step further and scrutinise stuff and do a critical analysis & evaluation, which is hard and takes time – reading material that pretends to do such and then agreeing with it is not the same thing at all and actually mostly serves to embed said bias.

                  Broad public support (cf. the Overton window) that sustains an effective Government throughout a full term and longer is not the same as a majority in the House to pass Budget and survive Vote of Confidence.

                  Lastly, Luxon can barely manage his own party and Seymour and Peters are already running rings around him, as did Willis not so long ago when she was acting as his minder – he’s a corporate manager, but not a (political) Leader.

        • bwaghorn 8.2.1.2
          5 October 2023 at 11:15 am

          Your analogy would only work if instead of all blacks quality players you had to ego driven province coach's trying to take over from fossy,

          • tsmithfield 8.2.1.2.1
            5 October 2023 at 11:21 am

            I guess the proof will be in the pudding there. The NZ Rugby will have egg on its face if the All Blacks go on and win the thing. Then Fossie would arguably be the best coach in the world. And NZ Rugby will have dumped him.

            Fossy is in a no-lose situation when you think about it.

            If he doesn’t succeed he was likely getting dumped anyway. If he wins, he will be able to name his price given that teams from various countries will be banging on his door.

            • Dennis Frank 8.2.1.2.1.1
              5 October 2023 at 12:44 pm

              He is, however, demonstrating macho street cred:

              Incoming All Blacks coach Scott Robertson has been in France for the Rugby World Cup but was persona non grata at games involving the All Blacks, says Justin Marshall.

              https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby-world-cup-2023/133062508/scott-robertson-barred-from-all-blacks-rugby-world-cup-games-in-france-says-justin-marshall

              He made the claim during a panel discussion with former Springbok Schalk Burger, and agreed with Burger’s conclusion that there was “no love lost” between All Blacks coach Ian Foster and Robertson.

              Taking a strong moral stand against trad All Blacks ethos may not be the clever moves he assumes it is though…

              Burger said that awkward situation was “so unlike you guys [the All Blacks]”, to which Marshall replied: “I know. We help each other.”

              Still, when top dog in the hierarchy, piss on the incoming one…

      • Ngungukai 8.2.2
        5 October 2023 at 1:47 pm

        From what I can gather Labour/NZF/Greens did work quite constructively together.

    • weka 8.3
      5 October 2023 at 11:46 am

      the big difference between 2017 and 2023 is that Peter is now actively courting the conspiracy culture vote, and is promoting climate denial. The best outcome for the left would be L/G/TPM. Peters in that mix would be chaotic, and it's appropriate for the left parties to point that out.

      Also, there are Labour voters talking about voting NZF because they believe the MSM narrative that the left will lose and it's better to have NZF as a brake on Nact. This is an own goal for those left voters. Labour should be discouraging voting NZF as much as possible.

      • tsmithfield 8.3.1
        5 October 2023 at 12:17 pm

        You know what NZ First is like. They will say anything to any group to get their vote to get into power. It doesn't mean they will follow through with any of those promises though. So, they haven't changed their spots at all IMO.

        I agree there is likely to be tactical voting going on from previous Labour supporters in all of this.

        If NZ First holds the balance of power again, should Labour/Greens/TMP reverse their position of ruling NZ First out if it allows them to get back into government in your opinion?

      • Ngungukai 8.3.2
        5 October 2023 at 1:53 pm

        NZF will be a moderating influence on both the Right and the Left if they are involved in a Coalition, somehow I can not see a NACT First Coalition happening as Winston NZF are anti-Neoliberal Ideology and Seymour is pro-Neoliberal Ideology.

        • weka 8.3.2.1
          5 October 2023 at 2:30 pm

          If Peters enables Labour to form government, he will be a proven liar.

          New Zealand First will not form a government with the Labour Party, whether in Coalition or as a Confidence and Supply partner.

          https://www.nzfirst.nz/2023_policies

          As for NACT, Peters will do his own amount of damage, there's nothing tempering about this,

          https://thestandard.org.nz/why-wont-winston-peters-answer-straight-forward-questions-about-nz-first-policy/

          Peters has consistently upheld neoliberalism and worked against those that would transition us to a better economic system.

          • tsmithfield 8.3.2.1.1
            5 October 2023 at 3:29 pm

            “If Peters enables Labour to form government, he will be a proven liar.”

            I think he has been proven that a few times before. So, it might be water off a duck’s back to him lol.

            I know you really would like a left leaning government after the election.

            But, if there is to be a change of government to a National led one, then from what you are saying, I guess you would prefer to see a government without NZ First in it to avoid these outcomes. If that is the case, we are probably on the same page so far as that goes.

            So, would you been on the same page as me in that you would be encouraging people not to vote NZ First whatever they do? So, then whatever happens, we end up with a government without NZ First in it at all.

            • weka 8.3.2.1.1.1
              5 October 2023 at 6:58 pm

              I agree that Peters won't care if he's shown to be a liar, but NZF supporters should. I don't think there's been anything quite as blatant as this would be.

              And yes, I've been telling anyone who will listen that whatever else happens we are all better off without Peters. Been saying that for many years. He basically monkey wrenched MMP right at the start.

              Specifically, re a Nact government, I think Nact/NZF or Nat/NZF would be worse than N/ACT. He's Trumpian and dangerous.

            • pat 8.3.2.1.1.2
              5 October 2023 at 7:35 pm

              Peters would dispute that…he prides himself on always allowing enough wiggle room never to be convicted of lying…accusations dont count.

  9. Dennis Frank 9
    5 October 2023 at 9:44 am

    Sceptical readers will inevitably assume metaphysics has no bearing on politics, but we live & learn:

    What’s surprising about these two conversations is though they’re far apart in many ways, there’s a huge amount of common ground.

    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/defining-issues-i-dont-think-we-have-a-rural-divide-i-really-dont-dairy-farmer

    The learning here is the general principle: folks have both similarities & differences between them. Triad = s + d but addition isn't really the metaphysical base of the thing, merely a symbolic digression into math. Consider a generic blending function that integrates two components: you get a whole via combination, integration, assimilation. In trad metaphysics this gets called `three in one' or the holy trinity.

    Align has six dairy farms in Mid Canterbury, and four dairy support farms for young stock. The company milks 5000 cows on about 2200 hectares. There’s a small market garden, and Align also owns a yoghurt factory.

    The whole operation employs 60 people, 45 of them on the dairy side. “I guess we feel a bit like we’re getting told that we need to pay for a prevention of a disease we already have, whilst also trying to prove that we could be the cure.”

    The black singlet brigade don't like having to mentally grapple with this mix. Yet their trajectory is sophisticated:

    Farming used to be a lifestyle, then it became a career, and now it’s a profession, Roberts says. Every cow wears what is in effect a smart watch, to measure efficiency and productivity. Align employs a person to collect and collate data.

    They're at the techo-resilience interface and they need to upskill there. Playing dumb ain't gonna work no more…

  10. Dennis Frank 10
    5 October 2023 at 9:53 am

    Media empires are real cool things to have:

    Sticking with the media theme, we talk to Sarah Perriam-Lampp, who, a few months ago, bought two print magazines – Country-Wide and Dairy Exporter. She burst onto the national stage as co-host of Radio Live’s Rural Exchange programme, with Hamish McKay and Richard Loe, just weeks before the 2017 election. Water was a dominant subject in the campaign.

    Newsroom meets her at a cafe in Tai Tapu, a small town just south of Christchurch where her growing media empire is based.

    Perriam-Lampp says she found the election six years ago highly emotive. For her family’s six generations farming in Central Otago, “water was survival, it wasn’t intensification”. “We quickly learned as a sector that we don’t know how to tell our story, because our story is quite complex and technical and scientific, and distilling down into bite-size messaging is really hard. https://www.newsroom.co.nz/defining-issues-i-dont-think-we-have-a-rural-divide-i-really-dont-dairy-farmer

    Byte-sized messaging, huh? Have to transcend binary thought processes to get there. Not us/them: commons instead. Quantum thinking in the hinterland a new trend?

    Demographic projections say most regions in New Zealand are going to eventually stagnate and decline.

    Damn gloomy lot, them demographers!

  11. tsmithfield 11
    5 October 2023 at 11:06 am

    I don't know who is giving Labour marketing advice at the moment. But a lot of what I see doesn't make much sense, in that it seems to be wasting advertising money on negative stuff that gives little reason to vote Labour.

    For instance, the ad I saw on TV last night made the point that National's tax cuts were going to be at the cost of services etc. But, that wasn't directly pushing people to Labour. But it was reminding voters that National is promising tax cuts. Hence, in a perverse way, could be seen as free publicity for National.

    The same with all the clamour about a the prospects of a NACT/NZFirst government. Again, no reason given for voting Labour. It may encourage some to vote Labour. But, it also may encourage others to vote National or something else to avoid the prospect of such a coalition.

    I think that is the problem with negative campaigning in that it often isn't giving a reason for voters to make the desired choice. Hence, I see it as largely wasted.

    • weka 11.1
      5 October 2023 at 12:02 pm

      They're probably messaging people who voted Labour last time. It's not like those people are in a vacuum and don't know what Labour do.

      • tsmithfield 11.1.1
        5 October 2023 at 12:19 pm

        It must be messaging of the subliminal type then. But, they could achieve that much more directly and effictively by directly promoting their own party.

    • Ngungukai 11.2
      5 October 2023 at 2:03 pm

      Labour need to let the country know what it has achieved over the past 6 years and substantiate it, you are right tsmithfield they are running a very negative campaign which helps make Luxon and National's positivity look good. Honest John the Snakeoil Salesman always used to promote positivity which he obviously learnt from his Merchant Banking days, you need to sell the Sizzle not the Sausage, once in power you can do what you want, ie put up GST, sell State Assets, despite the general public's opinion.

  12. Ffloyd 12
    5 October 2023 at 12:50 pm

    TSmithfield. I agree. Their messaging is instantly forgettable.
    Needs to be something more forceful.Like

    ‘We don’t need to take the country back.

    We need to CARRY ON taking it forward! ….or something like that.

    I think we need to be reminded that Labour has done a lot over the last 6 years and GR has steered us through bad times with a firm grip on the wheel.

    Instead of the constant feed of National Numpties ,who have not come of age in the world of Economics, through our ever so brilliant msm.

    Some people actually think that Willis knows what she is talking about.??? But she doesn’t. She’s just saying her lines.

    That will be why she and luxon are avoiding any debates with Labour, who DO know what they are talking about.

    And btw are they ever going to divulge their mythical reckonings on anything other than a sheet of A4? They can’t because they have already been debunked and they know it.

  13. Chris 13
    5 October 2023 at 1:07 pm

    The nats have got Key right on the job. Just got this email from Mr Teflon himself.

    "Dear Chris–

    With Election Day around the corner, people are asking for my thoughts,

    So here’s a couple.

    First, the election result is far from certain.

    Imagine if we woke up on 15 October in limbo land.

    Now if you are like me and want something different than we’ve had in the last 6 years, then you are going to need to vote for it.

    I am asking you to ensure you Party Vote National in order to make sure National has the numbers it needs to govern for you.

    WATCH MY VIDEO:

    Second, the economy is not doing well. The cost of living is too high and many Kiwi families are struggling.

    This is the main reason we can’t risk an uncertain election result.

    Uncertainty means no action to fix the economy and lower your cost of living.

    The economic situation isn’t dissimilar to 2008 when my Government came in and guided New Zealand through the Global Financial Crisis.

    We could only take decisive action, because there was a clear result on election night and a strong mandate to get things done.

    If there’s one team with the competence to steer New Zealand through tough economic times again, it’s Chris Luxon and his National team.

    So don’t risk having no clear election result.

    National needs your help to take action now.

    National must urgently increase advertising before more early voters go to the polls. Around 400,000 people are likely to vote this weekend.

    DONATE

    This can make a serious difference but we need them to see all of National's advertising in the next 36 hours. Can you please make a donation now?

    If you want change, Party Vote National and make sure National has the numbers to get our country back on track.

    Thank you.
    Rt. Hon. Sir John Key"

  14. Mike the Lefty 14
    5 October 2023 at 1:08 pm

    Newsflash: Nicola Willis admits that only 3000 households would get the full benefit from their tax package, but denies that this means it is a scam, or that National is lying. 3000 in all of NZ!

    Wow!

    Pants on fire National.

    • Chris 14.1
      5 October 2023 at 1:30 pm

      But will it be enough for the average lazy or ill-informed or uninterested or downright stupid voter to understand? NZ's bullshit "time to give the other lot a go" mentality's got a lot to answer for.

    • Mike the Lefty 14.2
      5 October 2023 at 2:05 pm

      Now National is playing the "up to…"game.

      Like a Briscoes ad.

      Save up to 60% (on its already inflated prices).

      Not saving much really.

    • Vivie 14.3
      5 October 2023 at 2:39 pm

      It's a typical National strategy. Just tell a little bit of the truth – i.e. lying by omission. Here's the link. https://thespinoff.co.nz/live-updates/05-10-2023/nicola-willis-confirms-only-3000-households-will-get-full-250-a-fortnight-tax-cut

      Chris Bishop had earlier claimed that Labour was playing "gutter politics", because Grant Robertson stated fact about National's tax plan and called it a scam. https://thespinoff.co.nz/live-updates/05-10-2023/labour-calls-national-tax-plan-a-scam-after-claims-of-gutter-politics

      It seems that to maintain support, National is relying on peoples' self-interest, prejudices, resentment and (wilful?) ignorance.

      • higherstandard 14.3.1
        5 October 2023 at 3:19 pm

        It seems that to maintain support, National is relying on peoples' self-interest, prejudices, resentment and (wilful?) ignorance.

        So just the same as all the other political parties.

        • Anne 14.3.1.1
          5 October 2023 at 4:33 pm

          No.

        • SapphireGem 14.3.1.2
          5 October 2023 at 5:48 pm

          Higherstandard- stop with your red herring, obfuscating BS and address the issue of why National has repeatedly lied by omission about their tax plan.

          Also- many people do NOT vote out of self-interest, prejudice, resentment and ignorance; they vote out of a sense of wanting to make society better for all, particularly for the most at risk in society- you know, the ones Luxon calls bottom feeders.

    • Bearded Git 14.4
      5 October 2023 at 6:25 pm

      She just admitted it again on Checkpoint in the discussion with Carmel Sepuloni. But Willis keeps saying in this discussion that people on the median wage will be the chief beneficiaries of its tax cuts which is BS.

      For instance just before 6 oclock on Checkpoint a text said (paraphrasing) “we are a family with a joint income of $115,000 and have 2 children yet according to the National Party tax calculator we will get $40 a fortnight”.

      This is $20 a week-block of cheese territory.

  15. Dennis Frank 15
    5 October 2023 at 3:13 pm

    A minister for outer space is a brilliant idea! Just think of how many voters live out there. Luxon must be making a play for the academic voter too – such a dramatic display of intellect will be sure to impress them…

    National is promising a minister for space, a prime minister's space prize for school students, and two new sites for aerospace and space testing, if elected. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/499471/national-promises-space-minister-and-prize-for-top-school-student

    • AB 15.1
      5 October 2023 at 3:28 pm

      Space research will solve climate change Dennis – where's your faith in market driven tech? We know it's really cold out there, so all we need is away of grabbing lots of the cold and bringing it back. Luxon asked them if they could 'deliver' the cold in 100 days if he helped them with his laser-like focus on outcomes.

      • Dennis Frank 15.1.1
        5 October 2023 at 3:47 pm

        smiley I see the logic: classic supply & demand used to defeat global warming! enlightened

        Will it earn him a Nobel in economics? I can hardly wait! As far as I know we haven't had a Nobel since Rutherford a century back. Just checked Google & there have been a couple of others since but as #4 he's likely to make Aotearoa great again. Go that maga man!

      • BK 15.1.2
        5 October 2023 at 5:56 pm

        Not being a betting man, but I wonder what the odds are that Luxon or one of his mates or a family member or a trust or a… has shares in a satellite launch startup!

  16. Drowsy M. Kram 16
    5 October 2023 at 4:00 pm

    Virtually every country will likely be in the ‘climate change’ poo at least once during the next 3 years. so what are NAct’s plans for such a contingency?

    Who should I vote for?

    ActionStation has teamed up with our mates to create a political scorecard that shows which parties and policies are looking out for people and planet.

    Check out the scorecard

    Election 2023: ACT promises to scrap several climate change policies
    [26 Sept 2023]

    https://policy.nz/2023/party-vote/policies/environment

    • Mike the Lefty 16.1
      5 October 2023 at 5:00 pm

      And meantime Luxon wants to create a Minister of Space!

      Good position for David Seymour.

      He thinks he's out of this world anyway.

      • Mac1 16.1.1
        5 October 2023 at 5:38 pm

        Actually, Luxon is preparing to negotiate with Winston Peters with this new ministerial portfolio. First in the world position for a near 80 year old to go where no man has been before and brave the final frontier. God help the aliens…

  17. Dennis Frank 17
    5 October 2023 at 4:20 pm

    Labour's wizards have dreamed up a clever spell:

    Webb said the unit would be made up of 15-20 experts and would sit inside the Financial Markets Authority (FMA). https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/10/05/labour-pledges-new-anti-scamming-unit-to-protect-kiwis-cash/

    Elitism as domestic govt policy is wonderful to see. Don't stop there!

  18. Mike the Lefty 18
    5 October 2023 at 4:43 pm

    Something I haven't seen much comment about: ACT want to take another public holiday off us – January 2. Only ACT would be arrogant enough to say that it means nothing and we don't deserve it.

  19. SPC 19
    5 October 2023 at 5:21 pm

    A lot has been made of the amount of support 3000 families are able to get – $125 a week because of a boost to the child care rebate.

    Labour has moved to extend the provision of subsidised placements in child care from 3-5 to 2-5.

    However international trends are otherwise. The market model is being questioned.

    Australia and Canada are abandoning their own rebate policies for failing to really address childcare affordability issues.

    Canada has also recently moved from tax rebates for childcare, instead embarking on an ambitious public funding commitment to offer C$10-a-day childcare by 2026. The government has committed $30 billion to develop 250,000 new affordable childcare places by expanding the not-for-profit sector.

    As seen in Australia, tax rebate schemes are administratively burdensome. Their childcare rebate schemes were added into an existing funding model developed by previous governments, ultimately making the system confusing and complicated for parents and providers to navigate.

    Similarly, National’s proposed rebate scheme will add yet another layer to what is now an already complex funding model, including the 20 hour early childcare education payment and the recently extended childcare subsidy.

    Moreover, international experience suggests rebate schemes do little on their own to reduce childcare costs in highly privatised childcare markets.

    Although money goes directly to parents, evidence shows there are limited benefits to families if there is no cap on the costs that providers can charge.

    Any money going to parents risks being absorbed by fee increases. This occurred in Australia under the childcare tax rebate scheme introduced in 2004, with the following decade seeing what sector advocates called a financial “bonanza for private providers”.

    But in a sector that is now almost 65% for-profit in New Zealand, any governmental attempt to control price increases risks being seen as “market interference”.

    Proponents of rebate schemes argue that fee increases should not happen in theory, because such schemes empower parents as consumers. They can regulate costs through choosing services that best meet their needs, and change services when they are not satisfied.

    But research has long shown that viewing parents as consumers of childcare in this way is a political fiction. Childcare markets do not work under textbook supply and demand imperatives.

    The commonly held notion that parents will “talk with their feet” by changing childcare providers is simply not the case. As any parent will attest, changing your child’s care environment once the child is settled is a move they are loathe to make, even if the service down the road is cheaper.

    Furthermore, parental choice in many regions is constrained by the lack of childcare services and long waiting lists. As we see growing privatisation and corporatisation of the sector, the range of choice is further limited.

    It is certainly time to consider childcare costs as a crucial issue affecting New Zealand households. But this needs to be part of a much more ambitious funding review of the sector.

    Overseas evidence has shown that the kind of intervention the National Party is proposing does little to improve affordability in the longer term, or address other thorny problems such as quality and access in childcare markets.

    If we look at Australia and Canada, countries which have had extensive experience of these kinds of funding models, there is now a renewed incentive to explore more universal, publicly-funded childcare options.

    This may involve stronger support for community, not-for-profit services, which are a shrinking part of the childcare landscape in Aotearoa. At the very least, it would require a much stronger sense of market stewardship than is currently in place.

    If political leaders are serious about making some real changes for parents, children and the wider sector, we should expect better than to repeat the same mistakes already made elsewhere.

    https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/13-03-2023/why-tax-rebates-arent-the-answer-to-the-childcare-affordability-crisis