Daily review 11/10/2023

Written By: - Date published: 5:30 pm, October 11th, 2023 - 53 comments
Categories: Daily review - Tags:

Daily review is also your post.

This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Don’t forget to be kind to each other …

53 comments on “Daily review 11/10/2023 ”

  1. pat 1

    "In the 12 months to August this year Statistics NZ estimates there was a net population gain from migration of 110,200, an all time high.

    It takes 16 months for Statistics NZ's migration figures to be finalised, and the early figures in particular can be subject to significant revisions, either up or down.

    But even allowing for that, the latest estimates suggest immigration is now driving significant population growth."

    https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/124711/latest-monthly-net-migration-gain-285-compared-pre-covid-levels-statistics-nz-says

    When was anyone asked about a population influx such as this?…in an environment of substandard infrastructure, environmental overshoot and migrant exploitation we have reached record levels of (largely easily attained skills) immigration.

    Population policy is well overdue.

    • arkie 1.1

      Such policy would first have to reckon with the demands by employers for cheaper, less demanding labour.

      In addition to infrastructural and environmental pressure, such migrant levels ensures increased rental housing pressure and justifies continued investment in the unproductive economy.

      • pat 1.1.1

        We can speculate as to why it is occurring (and I agree the housing market is likely the main driver), however the question remains as to why voters have not been provided with a population policy from any of the political hopefuls over a period of decades?

        And the employers (of certain sectors) may have demands, but so have other citizens.

    • Ngungukai 1.2

      …. and do we have enough housing for this Immigration surge, and additional 110,000 people at 3-4 people per household equates to 30,000 to 35,000 additional homes are we even building that many houses per annum ???

      • gsays 1.2.1

        ..and if any of them need to go to hospital, last time I looked there were delays, shortages and more health rationing.

        Thanks for raising the idea, Pat.

      • pat 1.2.2

        Sadly we do not…we lose around 30,000 homes per year due to wear and tear, we have the Air BnB phenomenon, and we have the well heeled increasingly buying holiday homes….and then there was (perhaps on the decline currently) those holding empty properties for capital gain.

        And that is but part of the infrastructure.

        Unfortunately in NZ, the main (and almost exclusive) source of collateral for growth is the banks residential mortgage book.

        • Ad 1.2.2.1

          Air BnB is turning Queenstown into a mess. None can take a bus or shuttle to a house up on the ridge, so they must get a rental car. Which turns the state highway into a nightmare in season.

          QLDC or government could simply regulate that Air BnB's are required to be at the same standard as hotels ie sprinklers and lifts and fire exits etc; that would take the heat out of it at least.

          There's no room for the infrastructure ie roads that would enable more unrestrained international flights to work, let alone the housing for workers.

          It's turning Queenstown into an alpine Venice.

    • SPC 1.3

      A smart immigration policy.

      Residency to work for those who graduate qualified for certain sectors (important areas of the economy or services).

      Preference for foreign students who choose certain areas of study (to sustain our range of courses, or post graduate and see above).

      Employers who bring in workers have to arrange housing (yes you Queenstown).

      Industries that have a need for (migrant) workers have to identify a pathway for training locals to do the work (in partnership with educational/training bodies or apprenticeships/internships).

      • pat 1.3.1

        And which party has proffered such a policy (with the required supporting policies) over the past couple of decades?

        Crickets

  2. gsays 2

    I'm aware just the mention of a couple these names will have some reaching for the smelling salts… this is a good 48 minutes of insightful, sometimes funny, political banter.

    Observations include, tax cuts is not a classically conservative party action (Milton Friedman, Thatcher, Regan, Richardson) as opposed to close careful macro management of economy, National breathing life into Winston.

    Surprisingly damning opinions of Luxon and the Nats.

    https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2023/10/10/7-30pm-tonight-the-working-group-with-john-tamihere-matthew-hooton-and-damien-grant/

  3. Dennis Frank 3

    This poll covers a more recent period than the Guardian poll:

    Labour is up 2% from last week's poll to 28%, and National is up 1% on 37%. The Green Party has hit 14% (up 1%), which would deliver it a record 17 MPs in the next parliament. ACT has slumped to 9% (down 1%), its lowest result in the 1News poll in more than a year. Te Pāti Māori is steady on 2%. New Zealand First's 6% would place the party and leader Winston Peters firmly in the kingmaker position between the left and right blocs.

    Of the 1001 eligible voters polled, 9% didn’t know or refused to answer, the lowest percentage this year. The polling period was from Saturday, October 7 to Tuesday, October 10.

    https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/10/11/poll-labour-lifts-and-greens-strong-peters-has-decision-to-make/

  4. Incognito 4

    Opinion: Last Friday, a study was released finding that 94.5 percent of the National Party’s Facebook posts from September 11 to September 24 had been negative.

    The academic leading the study, Victoria University’s Dr Mona Krewel, said this finding was “not unexpected, given Labour is the incumbent and National is wanting to change the government”.

    To many of us, this finding was also unsurprising because it reflected the intense fear that’s been driving its campaign and the campaigns of Act and NZ First.

    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/ideasroom/a-chance-to-cut-through-the-fear-and-find-the-best-of-us

    Despite the growing howls calls for showing ‘mongrel’, Hipkins and Labour have held off for long before they started countering the unrelenting battering of negativity and fear from the opposition. It is a shame that Labour hasn’t followed a more positive and constructive campaign but it’s always easier to shout ‘advise’ and ‘encouragements’ from the sideline.

    Kia kaha, comrades.

  5. alwyn 5

    What will the Green Party do if. God forbid, Winston becomes the Kingmaker?

    When Chris Hipkins calls Winston with a plea for support will he go along with Winston's demand that he be deputy PM, and that there be no Green Cabinet Ministers? Will the Green Party go along with it in return for some policy wins?

    When Winston then talks to Chris Luxon after his pleading call will the ACT party go along with Winston's similar demands about ACT's exclusion?

    Which of the Chris's will buckle first?

    It will be an interesting pre-Christmas this year.

    • Incognito 5.1

      It already is a pre-Chrismess.

    • observer 5.2

      Nice try, but nonsense, as you well know.

      In 2017 NZF got more votes than the Greens, after the Metiria story had dominated their campaign. Their negotiating position was weaker than Winston's.

      In 2023 the Greens are on track to have double the support of NZF or ACT.

      Hipkins and Ardern had totally different pre-election stances on working with Winston. A very different landscape.

      • weka 5.2.1

        the big stumbling block for the Greens imo is that Peters has been actively climate denialist.

      • weka 5.2.2

        the other issue for the Greens is that the membership expects more radical positioning this time.

    • SPC 5.3

      Are you playing dumb?

      Peters has rejected any deal with Labour. Hipkins has rejected trying to change his mind.

      Peters will support a National led government and only if there is a problem that would result in another election would the possibility of (temporary or longer) confidence and supply to Labour (presumably on Labour having to forgo a range of policies) come up.

      • alwyn 5.3.1

        "Are you playing dumb".

        Not at all. However anyone who really thinks that Hipkins and Peters, who are both career politicians, can't go back on pre-election statements in order to retain, by Hipkins, or gain, by Peters, power and baubles, is the idiot.

        I can see both of them telling us that had to do it to save New Zealand … waffle, waffle, waffle.

        And their true believers, like you, will go along with it.

        • SPC 5.3.1.1

          Liar. You're deliberately joining a campaign to spin that narrative to stop people voting NZF to block a NACT government. And I am calling you on it.

          And I'll spend the next 3 years calling you out on that.

        • Tricledrown 5.3.1.2

          Confidence and supply agreements are not coalitions and have happened before.

  6. Dennis Frank 6

    TV3 news also reported their poll:

    National has been right to panic, with its vote plummeting 4.6 points to 34.5 percent. The party peaked too soon and is looking to snatch chaos from the jaws of victory. ACT's fall from grace has baked in, stalling on 8.8 percent.

    Labour is still losing though. It's only picked up 1 point to 27.5 percent. The Greens' conspicuous absence from much of this campaign is doing their vote wonders. It's up 0.7 to 14.9 percent. https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/10/newshub-reid-research-poll-national-right-to-panic-as-support-plummets-new-zealand-first-surges.html

    Peters has timed his run perfectly with New Zealand First up 1.6 points to 6.8 percent. Te Pāti Māori is still not making a break for the 5 percent threshold – it's up 0.5 to 2.7 percent. The Opportunities Party is on 2.2 percent, up 0.3. A new entrant here, New Zealand Loyal. Conspiracy candidate Liz Gunn's party of two is on 1.4 percent.

    Good showing for the Greens in both, along with ACT's subsidence continuing & NZF continuing to rise over the threshold.

    • Dennis Frank 6.1

      Just to summarise impressions from all 3 polls today, looks like the wealth tax is pulling floaters, as is Labour & NZF, but not National nor ACT. yes

      • Kat 6.1.1

        Take another look at the three polls:

        Guardian: Nat 34 / Lab 30.3 / Grn 10.6 / Act 7.9 / NZf 8.2

        Newshub: Nat 34.5 / Lab 27.5 / Grn 14.9 / Act 8.8 / NZf 6.8

        TVNZ One: Nat 37 / Lab 28 / Grn 14 / Act 9 / NZf 6

        I would say National and Labour are level pegging, maybe a point or two ahead in the blue corner. The Greens looking like the bolters……….Act are learning the other meaning for floaters……..the final round is upon us……….lay your bets folks………Winstons Wheel of Fortune is spinning………spinning…….spinning……

        • pat 6.1.1.1

          All within MoE

        • Dennis Frank 6.1.1.2

          That's a good comparative design. yes A triad of pentads, in the deep Green view.

          The reflexivity principle points us to the undecided, and the effect of these polls in making up their mind who to vote for.

          People often prefer to vote for a winning team, but at times a rising team can pull them too. Such voters are influenced by energy rather than ideas.

          From the biological signalling perspective, I suspect Winston to come first, but the Greens not far behind him, plus the Greens have their strategic plus of correct alignment with the future which will influence anyone seeking guidance or with a sense of destiny…

        • Rolling-on-Gravel 6.1.1.3

          I am praying. I don’t know what's going to happen.

          I hope. It'll be a relief if LAB/GRN/TPM wins.

  7. Mac1 7

    We are late into the fifth act, and the dénouement approaches. The clues have all been disclosed and the false leads have been laid. The characters have all been revealed and the suspects assembled in the drawing room. Will it be the vicar alias Bishop Tamaki? Or did the man from Ilam seize the opportunity? Is it the old retainer who rose and fell with the fortunes of the family? Is it the young upstart in the yellow sports car who conspired with the businessman risen through the ranks who seeks fame and a knighthood for himself? Or the pastry chef aided by the vegan gardener and the tattooed traveller who seems from away but instead has always been there?

    Who dunnit? All will be revealed in Saturday night's end of series episode of "The Mystery of the Lost Chance Saloon and Bar". Alternate endings upon application.

    • Anne 7.1

      Oh nicely put Mac1. Love your turn of phrase.

      In the good book it would definitely be the pastry chef aided by the gardener and the traveller who win the coveted prize but there are wicked wizards and a witch who might be about to wreak evil upon our fair land. But as with all good tales, the pastry chef and his merry band of helpers will eventually ride forth and save the people from the fire and the plague just in the nick of time.

      Err… they have saved us from the plague, but the fire is still to come.

    • Bearded Git 7.2

      Nice stuff Mac-well put indeed.

  8. Peter 8

    Can you imagine Tamaki as an MP?

  9. weka 9

    I'm thinking through a post for Saturday evening. Are people going to be around? What kind of post/s do you want?

    • Dennis Frank 9.1

      You mean a framing suggestion? I'd go with the holistic view. Then reference the commons, and does the result signal a shift in how we can specify it. Blend the left/right balance into that, then factor in the kingmaker role of NZF to the extent that it influenced the outcome.

      One would then need to mention the timeframe for finalising the outcome. Any surprises could rearrange any such scheme though…

    • observer 9.2

      Up to you, just as long as the post incudes the words: "This is not the election result"!

      Every 3 years it seems we have to be reminded (and amazingly, the media have to be reminded) that special votes are worth exactly the same as the other votes, and there are a lot of them.

      National lost 2 seats on specials in 2020, 2 seats in 2017, etc.

  10. joe90 10

    Oh dear…

  11. SPC 11

    Labour is promising to make it so Defence Force (NZDF) pay rates are set independently of the government, and review the Defence Act.

    He highlighted the Labour government's investments in the NZDF over the past six years, including pay increases for personnel and new recruits of between $4000 and $15,000 – the largest in a decade – and shoring up ageing fleet and bases.

    "Labour's $4.7 billion capital investment over six years is double what National did in nine. Our defence forces now has new Poseidon aircraft, upgraded frigates and a new vessel protecting our seas, a new Bushmaster vehicle fleet, and new Super Hercules aircraft on the way," he said.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/election-2023/499367/labour-promises-defence-force-pay-would-be-set-independently

    https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/29-09-2023/election-2023-the-foreign-affairs-trade-and-defence-policies-in-two-minutes

  12. SPC 12

    The speakerless house awaits Jim Jordan

    The mime artist Marcel Marceau

    https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/licensed-image?q=tbn:ANd9GcRkPror1jhaPvwoKq_u8CWaiHN9mWaF7cUJddiLAqku9SN707jK-O1yDDv_3daIbKHkFfnNlEmQZIkt1bc

    It’s life Jim, but nit as we know it.

    Spock, Star Trek.

    [image resized]

    • SPC 12.1

      Thanks … but the in the face look of it, oversized, was right for Jim Jordan – ex wreslter and most extreme person (likely) to be speaker.

      • Incognito 12.1.1

        I can undo the resizing, if you so wish

        • SPC 12.1.1.1

          It's not my call, I've already seen it – it had more impact like that than the original I tried to put up and on here now.

          You decide …

  13. Adrian 13

    This is going to be decided on the overseas vote. I can hear the screaming from the right already to cancel the kids who are away for more than 6 months. My 30 year old rang tonight to say he thought that the Greens are going to go big and the above prediction on the o/seas vote. I hope he’s right, he works out of UCanty and is well connected especially with the young diaspora through social media, and senses that they are solidly left more than usual. Mind you, any who have been in UK,US, Aussie etc have lived through right wing carnage and probably don’t want a repeat here.

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