Daily Review 19/02/2018

Written By: - Date published: 5:30 pm, February 19th, 2018 - 131 comments
Categories: Daily review - Tags:

Daily review is also your post.

This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Don’t forget to be kind to each other …

131 comments on “Daily Review 19/02/2018 ”

  1. Ed 1

    Can anyone name a more amoral and repulsive profession than being a mercenary?
    Bluntly speaking that means being prepared to kill people for money.

    What euphemisms can be used for a mercenary group?
    A security consultancy.

  2. Andre Hock 2

    Said Global warming has a human fingerprint . Not much else in his interview on RNZ

  3. mickysavage 3

    Big change in Colmar Brunton poll tonite …

    Labour 48
    National 43
    Greens 5
    NZ First 3

    Ardern soaring as preferred PM to 41.

    Good times …

    • Barfly 3.1

      Jeebus that hurts national

      • JohnSelway 3.1.1

        Well, it doesn’t hurt National per se. As an opposition party which has 3 terms it is a good result for them. What hurts is the no support

    • weka 3.2

      Would you be ok with the Greens out of parliament and Labour governing on its own?

      • mickysavage 3.2.1

        Nope.

      • mickysavage 3.2.2

        I expect things to settle back a bit. Greens have to be there they are the left wing and environmental conscience of the Parliament.

        NZ FIrst on the other hand …

        • weka 3.2.2.1

          Yes, can’t say I’m unhappy with the NZF number. And I also think at this stage the GP number isn’t something to be particularly worried about. Worth considering long term strategy though.

          • Ovid 3.2.2.1.1

            I think once the Greens select their new co-leader they’ll have everything in place to build their support.

            • BM 3.2.2.1.1.1

              Build there support from where?

              Greens have positioned themselves as a far left party targetting the beneficiary, anti-capitalism, SJW crowd which will be cast in stone with Marama Davidson becoming co-leader.

              You can’t tell me those people are voting Labour?, the party of a thousand backflips, so again where are these Green supporters going to come from

              Personally, I think the Green party is fucked, it used to be left wing cool and hip but Jacinda’s stolen that vibe and now that greens have nothing.

              • DoublePlusGood

                There are plenty of people interested in changing capitalism and doing a bit of social justice warrioring.

                • BM

                  Where are they?

                  Are they voting Labour? or are they so insignificant they don’t even make the margin of error?

              • weka

                Why do you care? Oh that’s right, you don’t, and you want the Greens to fail. Let’s just understand your comment in that light.

                • BM

                  Of course, I don’t care about the Greens they offer nothing to me politically

                  Completely wedded to Labour why would a National voter care if they lived or died?

                  Having said that though If the Greens developed the ability to go cross-party then obviously that attitude would probably change.

                  • Incognito

                    Of course, I don’t care about the Greens they offer nothing to me politically

                    A liveable planet perhaps with a breathable atmosphere and drinkable water? You clearly didn’t think this one through, did you? Colour me surprised.

                    • weka

                      BM has Mad Max fantasies (I’m not joking).

                    • BM

                      I’m doing a calendar next month, apocalypse theme, lots of leather, bare buttocks and studs.

                      Should I put you down for a dozen or so?

                    • Molly

                      “I’m doing a calendar next month, apocalypse theme, lots of leather, bare buttocks and studs.

                      Should I put you down for a dozen or so?”

                      Thanks, but no thanks BM. I’m still wanting the use of my eyeballs for a few decades, and I’m thinking having to stab them with a ballpoint after seeing those images might be detrimental to that need.

                  • Ed

                    What abour your children and grandchildren?

                    You need to read this book, bm

                    ‘Storms of My Grandchildren
                    The Truth about the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity’

                    In explaining the science of climate change, Hansen paints a devastating but all-too-realistic picture of what will happen in our children’s and grandchildren’s lifetimes if we follow the course we’re on.

                    https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/storms-of-my-grandchildren-9781608195022/

                    • mac1

                      Ed wrote. “What abour your children and grandchildren?

                      You need to read this book, bm”

                      I thought for a minute, Ed, you were concerned that BM’s descendants might see the calendar!

                      Climate change horror can be handled, but not in leather.

                    • reason

                      The last time BM ‘spoke’ to me ………. he asked if I was German.. and then doubled up on the weird, by insinuating I had a thing for ‘tight pants’ …. strange and amusing I thought … or ‘vot iz dis scwheizenhund?’

                      Now he writes …”I’m doing a calendar next month, apocalypse theme, lots of leather, bare buttocks and studs.”

                      Come out of the closet BM …. lose the repression ..become that happy gay leather chappy.

            • weka 3.2.2.1.1.2

              “I think once the Greens select their new co-leader they’ll have everything in place to build their support.”

              Yes, I think this is true. Also time, for people to see what they are actually doing in government. It’s not what people are used to. The Greens are playing the long game, and they’re building relationships, and they’re changing how politics is done.

          • The Chairman 3.2.2.1.2

            “And I also think at this stage the GP number isn’t something to be particularly worried about.”

            Ha.

        • Richard Ellis 3.2.2.2

          I imagine NZ First will start peeling votes off national, once this leadership battle gets messy

      • AB 3.2.3

        Don’t think leftish Labour voters will ever allow that to happen Weka.
        In any case, if TPPA 11 is signed in March, 3% or so will shift back to the Greens.

        • mickysavage 3.2.3.1

          Aye.

        • weka 3.2.3.2

          Leftish Labour voters already let that happen at the last election when they voted Labour.

          • Craig H 3.2.3.2.1

            But not below 5%, and I genuinely think urban liberal Labour supporters would vote Green if it was necessary.

            • weka 3.2.3.2.1.1

              Urban liberal Labour supporters are ok with the Greens on 5 or 6%. That’s a problem. Because next election if it’s as tight as it is today, how many LW voters will vote Labour because they’re worried about their vote being wasted if the GP slips under 5%?

            • McFlock 3.2.3.2.1.2

              The 5-6% ballpark is too narrow for my taste, too. Labour need friends to govern, just like National do. A quick change in the polling period could leave grn on 4.9% and we’re screwed.

              But way early days yet. Too early for obsessive poll watching at this stage. I’d expect a government increase after the second budget. That’s when the improvements will start being really evident.

          • Psycho Milt 3.2.3.2.2

            Leftish Labour voters already let that happen at the last election when they voted Labour.

            True, but if the Green Party was looking like there was a risk of it falling below the threshold come election time, there’d be plenty of Labour voters willing to vote strategically to prevent that from happening. Effectively, this poll puts the Labour/Green vote at 53%, let’s just take the compliment.

            • McFlock 3.2.3.2.2.1

              That’s the exact reason I voted Green last time, for the first time.

              • weka

                Right. Which suggests to me that Labour voters want the Greens at the sweet spot of 6 or 7%. But not higher.

                • McFlock

                  I don’t care about the exact level of Green support. I don’t prefer lower levels to higher levels at this stage. Which would I prefer if Labour and the Greens were about equal? To quote Rick Blaine, “ask me when you get there”.

                  But I do believe both the Greens and Labour are essential parts of my ideal government. I voted Green because I thought they might not get in, not because I want them at a specific voting range.

                  I really only stress about two thresholds: 5% and 50%. The rest is horse trading.

                  • weka

                    Right. So if at the next election the GP was polling like today, there will be people who *won’t vote for them for fear of wasting their vote. That’s a risk. Even if you don’t care about the ratios, having the Greens sitting just above the threshold is not safe for the left.

                    • McFlock

                      Well, it depends how far they think through it – getting Labour on 40% with no coalition partners is also a wasted vote.

                      So if the Greens are polling 4 to 7%, I would most likely vote Green regardless of whether I still prefer Labour.

                      If, on the other hand, Greens are on 9%, and NZ1 are on 4 to 7%, I’m nopt sure I’d be able to pull myself to vote for NZ1. But I suspect other Labour voters would tend towards that decision.

                      But I still think this is all augury – we’ll see what happens when the Greens are up and running with a full leadership team and some more policy achievements under their belts.

                    • weka

                      Why would you vote NZF?

                    • McFlock

                      The only reason I could think of would be as a third coalition partner..

                      Unless a better option comes along.

                      A labgrn coalition with them is still better than the nats in government.

                    • weka

                      I’m assuming the strategy will be aiming for L/G.

                    • McFlock

                      LG would be my preferred, but tbh I think Labour tacticians would prefer Labour being in the position to choose between NZ1 and Greens as a coalition partner, rather than needing both.

                      But the Greens and Labour do seem to dovetail nicely without too much in the way of opposing forces.

                    • weka

                      I think that’s true (about Labour), but that’s the problem. Because as long as Labour hedge their bets like that they support NZF. Had they gone a bit more left they would have picked up more NZF votes. It looks to me like the only way the left can grow a bigger govt is for Labour to take NZF and swing votes and for the Greens to regain their vote and pick up some Labour and non-vote. If that doesn’t happen, what’s going to happen when Peters is no longer around?

                    • McFlock

                      I think NZ1 are aiming for the regions. Not left wing votes.

                      I also suspect, with nothing but my own belly button for support, that Labour will pick up the swing votes, NZ1 the regional nat votes (especially if collins gets in), and the greens will pick up some Labour and some non-voters.

              • swordfish

                Same here.

                I predicted they’d end on about 5.7-6.0% after Specials. (as it turned out, they did a little better) … but was all a bit too close to the 5% hurdle for comfort … so I thought “What the Hell, toss a strategic party vote their way … you only live once”

            • weka 3.2.3.2.2.2

              or they’d vote Labour out of fear of their vote being wasted. Willing to bet this happened last year.

      • Puckish Rogue 3.2.4

        Yes

    • Carolyn_Nth 3.3

      It’s good to see Nats on the slide… and a slight drop in NZF.

      Sad to see the Greens drop as they are the only government/support party to stand firm on opposing the TPPA_byAnyOtherName.

      kiwis, wake up! The TPP is a biggie and will impact negatively on a lot of Kiwis – especially the least well off Kiwis.

    • Ovid 3.4

      It’s amazing how things have turned around in less than a year. And the way things are, I’m not even sure the next National PM is currently sitting in Parliament.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 3.5

      But David Farrar said the honeymoon was over! I’m shocked!

      • AB 3.5.1

        OAB – there are alternative explanations which DPF may deploy. Place your bet:
        The honeymoon is delayed and not genuine
        The honeymoon is weaker than that obtained by the masterful John Key
        The honeymoon is only because of the baby
        The honeymoon is the end of the Greens
        The honeymoon won’t last because a new National leader will get a bounce (actually I suspect this bounce is what happens on a gallows when the rope snaps tight, but I’ll let it go – not the rope I mean, would never let the rope go)
        The honeymoon is attributable to sunspot activity causing temporary mental derangement
        The honeymoon is a rogue poll and completely different from ‘internal polling’
        The honeymoon is illegitimate like the election result (and the baby)
        The honeymoon is just a shadow of a honeymoon cast on the wall of the cave and there is no way of knowing if there is truly an essence of the honeymoon anywhere
        There can’t be a honeymoon because I am a sad, boring, droning git

    • mac1 3.6

      One thing Labour must not do, and that is to commit the error of National in 2017 and try to rule alone. No time for hubris- there never is.

      48% is great for Labour and recognition for wise, inclusive and humble leadership and action.

    • NewsFlash 3.7

      I wouldn’t put to much emphasis on the low results for the coalition partners, the public is very happy with the new Govt, Labour being the largest party has received lions share of the poll, but – the coalition partners have contributed considerably to performance of the Govt as a whole and should be proud to be associated.

      IMHO the poll should also contain a question on the coalition performance as a whole, and then compare with individual results.

    • Antoine 3.8

      I dont really like that 5 for the Greens. I feel it could readily have been 10-15 (of course I would prefer to see 25-35)

      A.

  4. Kat 4

    That poll result is bound to have some influence on which way the Nat leadership goes.
    If they go for Collins she may be gone by Christmas as Nat support drops below 35%.

    Fun times ahead alright 🙂

  5. Kat 5

    Oh, and its possible that Mr Mitchell could be the leader of a new right party, not Collins. Aha, the plot thickens……………………

    • Ed 5.1

      Bradbury’s perspective.
      Looks like you are both on the same page.

      Why Mark Mitchell’s run at leadership is a scam & is this Tracy Watkin’s worst political column of all time?

      …so a radical right wing mercenary with deep links to Judith Collin’s favourite attack dogs Slater & Lusk (who helped him win the Rodney candidacy) and who have a long term plan to use him to implement a radical right wing agenda has thrown his hat in the ring.

      Why?

      ……….I believe the long term plan is for Mark to stand down from National in the year of the next election, suddenly become the Leader of the Conservative Party and Judith will allow him to run in Rodney unopposed thus bringing in a sub 5% vote using an electorate seat. He is running now to build profile, watch for him to run a very socially conservative platform to appeal to the Christian vote.

      https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2018/02/19/why-mark-mitchells-run-at-leadership-is-a-scam-is-this-tracy-watkins-worst-political-column-of-all-time/

    • Ed 5.2

      The other thing Bomber highlights is how compromised Tracy Watkins is.
      The puffery she writes about Mitchell is unbelievable.

      Some of the most vomitous and nauseating ways she describes Mitchell.

      ‘a dark horse.’
      ‘Former police officer and hostage negotiator’
      ‘ in the mold of former prime minister Sir John Key’
      ‘a to-die-for back story’
      ‘He was stabbed in the line of duty’
      ‘a top international hostage negotiator’
      ‘media savvy’
      ‘ reminiscent of Key in his early days’

      Who wrote this tripe?
      Lusk, Slater, Williams or another far right extremist?

      No mention of some of the work he did in the Middle East.

      Maybe Watkins had never read this news.

      “National MP Mark Mitchell, newly appointed as Defence Minister, was a mercenary fighter in Iraq during the bloodiest period of the US occupation. His appointment signals what a pro-war, pro-US empire government this National Party really is,” said Auckland Peace Action spokesperson Virginia Lambert.

      “Mark Mitchell not only went freely and willingly to fight in an illegal war of aggression, but he made a profit out of it. It is disgusting.”

      “More than a million people are dead in Iraq because of the US’s war. Mark Mitchell was one of thousands who went to occupy and repress the local people on behalf of the US.”

      http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1704/S00291/new-defence-minister-a-mercenary-in-us-wars.htm

      I wonder what Slater or Lusk have on Watkins.

    • Ed 5.3

      Mitchell from 2011

      Political goals:
      Growing the economy through increased exports; supporting critical infrastructure projects; strong support for police to allow them to fight gangs and organised crime. Believes his negotiation skills would be useful in areas like negotiating with unions, and his outsourcing experience would help in areas like privatising prisons.

      http://www.stuff.co.nz/sunday-star-times/features/4810730/In-the-line-of-duty

  6. Anne 6

    Bradbury has his good days. That is a highly plausible strategy Ed @ 5.1. But first, it will depend on Judith Collins becoming the leader which might not happen this time but further down the track…?

    Now we can watch and see if it pans out in practice.

    • Kat 6.1

      The Nats need a support party, its as simple as that. It appears those parties that achieved some electoral success had leaders that defected from either the Nats or Labour.

      The machinations inside National are deafening by their silence.

  7. Ed 8

    I keep warning people about an oncoming crash
    .
    Australian economist John Adams agrees with me,

    He is warning the recent turmoil on global markets is just a sign of things to come, and a massive crisis is on the cards.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agc4nK2XksQ

    • Puckish Rogue 8.1

      Shut up already, you’re predicting something that’s happened before and will happen again. I highly doubt there’s anyone (left or right) that posts on this site that doesn’t think there’ll be a crash. Ooh I know I predict National will regain power at some point.

      • Ed 8.1.1

        I am merely commenting on statements made by a respected Australian economist.
        Sorry you don’t like his message.

        • Puckish Rogue 8.1.1.1

          No you’re not, you’re acting as if you and you alone have information about the future and if only people would just listen to you, well you’re not Cassandra you’re just boring

          • Ed 8.1.1.1.1

            Then scroll past.

            • Psycho Milt 8.1.1.1.1.1

              That’s the second time I’ve read that from you recently. If you post contentious claims on a general comments thread, why should people who disagree with you “scroll past” rather than expressing their disagreement? That’s why an open comments thread is there, for fuck’s sake. If you can’t defend your claims, don’t instruct people to ignore them, try not posting them in the first place.

              • Ed

                I have defended my claims.
                I don’t see why I have to respond to pr’s insults, though.
                You’d think he would be chatting with his biking friends….

                • One Anonymous Bloke

                  “The respected* economist agrees with me”.

                  That’s not a defence, it’s an invitation.

                  *terms and conditions may vary

                  • Ed

                    There are a lot of key independent economists saying that the same thing.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      And?

                      Baloney detection kit, Shermer version:

                      5. Has anyone gone out of the way to disprove the claim, or has only supportive evidence been sought?

                      This is the confirmation bias, or the tendency to seek confirmatory evidence and to reject or ignore disconfirmatory evidence. The confirmation bias is powerful, pervasive and almost impossible for any of us to avoid. It is why the methods of science that emphasize checking and rechecking, verification and replication, and especially attempts to falsify a claim, are so critical.

                      Have you gone out of your way to find any contradictory opinions, Ed?

                • solkta

                  Yes, just like you gave some examples of the “many countries” who have nationalised their banks and the techniques they used to do it.

                  Oh wait, that’s right, you didn’t do that did you?

          • mauī 8.1.1.1.2

            This is a change, I didn’t think you worked nights.

            • Puckish Rogue 8.1.1.1.2.1

              I’m on holiday doing the central otago rail trail so i figure i may as well work a few shifts while I’m here, i dont like posting from my phone but sometimes you just got to make do with what you’ve got, you know how it is

    • BM 8.2

      Do you believe in the rapture, Ed?

    • Pat 8.3

      Lol….i see Toplis is already advocating ‘printing money’….perhaps he knows of a bank that may need bailing out?

      “And additionally if things did go really wrong we’ve got a lot of fiscal flexibility because our government books are in pretty good order and we’ve got a lot of central bank flexibility ’cause we’ve still got some of the highest interest rates on the planet and we’ve never used quantitative easing.

      “So I’m an optimist for New Zealand in a relative sense, notwithstanding that if things go nasty (globally), we’ll suffer some way or another,” he said.

      or perhaps all we need to do is bluff our way through as suggested here…

      “You have to look at (household indebtedness) people’s ability to service that debt and that is a function of how quickly the economy is growing, are wages going up? Is there actually economic activity that means people will be able to pay it off?

      “The answer is yes. Globally this is the first time in a very long time we’ve had all the major economies actually growing,” Mr Stubbs said.”

      Ah, nothing like a little confidence to keep the punters at the table….

      https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/350776/is-the-global-economy-facing-a-financial-armageddon

  8. Ed 9

    Wayne Hope nails it.
    I have been advocating for real action on the site for a while – not tinkering.
    Wayne agrees with me.

    This is a state of emergency. If only piecemeal measures are contemplated and if the structural underpinnings of wealth polarisation are not recognised, our county`s future is bleak . Slums on the edges of our major cities, prison riots, civil unrest and a secluded one per cent contributing to charities but secretly blaming the poor for their plight.

    https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2018/02/19/must-read-this-is-a-state-of-emergency-new-zealand-at-the-turning-point/

  9. patricia bremner 10

    Where’s Wayne? (Mapp) You have been conspicuous by your absence..
    We know you were Minister during the raid, and Mitchell took over from you as Minister of Defense.

    So , Collins Lusk and Slater, are known to have been plotting to bring in more right wing National party members, sooooo…… they helped Mitchell gain Rodney . He’s very right, right!

    Are they playing a long game, of long knives????

    I think a plot by “interests” to have another right wing party or group is unfolding.
    What happened to the Blue Dragons? Or am I imagining things line up???

    • Ed 10.1

      Some very good questions there.
      Pity we don’t have a media that will investigate them.
      Tracy Watkins appears owned by the extreme right wing.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 10.2

      Wayne picked up a ban a little while ago. Weka got sick of his rhetorical games. A month, iirc.

      He’ll be back before you can say “Tory sophist” 😈

    • Exkiwiforces 10.3

      Sorry to nit pick, look I can cut defence again like I did to Health Dr Colman who replace Mapp because he said the cuts won’t work (that part is true), then the pie thief/ where did all the pies go Brownliee aka pie guts, who was then replace by Mitchell IOU 20 billion or whatever nickname you can think of.

  10. Kat 11

    National are heading for polling worse than 2002. The rabble that are scrabbling and jostling for power will get nowhere. John Key’s clone is being assembled at the moment and a helicopter will deliver………maybe 2026 with a shot at PM in 2029.

  11. Ed 12

    This will be a hard watch for the close minded among you.
    Abby Martin, one of the most fearless of our independent voices in journalism, investigates the North Korean crisis.
    Be warned.
    Don’t watch if you accept the mainstream media’s lines without question

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=4&v=QDJlNQlRbIA

  12. weka 13

    Did anyone else’s avatar change or is it just me?

  13. Pat 14

    “But there’s a catch: the nation’s 1.8 million cows are producing so much manure that there isn’t enough space to get rid of it safely.

    As a result, farmers are dumping cow poo illegally, the country is breaking EU regulations on phosphates designed to prevent groundwater contamination, and the high levels of ammonia emissions are affecting air quality.

    As a result, WWF is calling for a 40% cut in cow numbers over the next decade, and a return to a dairy sector that can deal with its own dung.”

    Sound familiar?

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/16/dutch-cow-poo-overload-causes-an-environmental-stink

  14. mac1 15

    “My dog-handling skills will be very handy if I get the job as Leader of the National Party,” says #4 contender, Mark Mitchell.

    “”Get in behind” and “Fetch it” are for comic books and jokes but serious dogs need serious handling.”

    He looks forward to putting the lap dog, poodle and rottweiler through the hoops but would not specify which breed typified which rival for the top job.

    “That would be easier than ABC and in that particular order” he said.

    Others might put their paws up, but his use of a short leash and judicious treats would deal with all but the barking mad. “All his colleagues were House-trained though they still chase after ducks,” he laughed.

    He looked forward to the contest and the challenge. “Every dog has its day” but his dog-whistling and skills at negotiating at muzzle length should “collar” the prize, concluded the former police dog handler.

  15. Tanz 16

    Much water to go under the bridge re this govt. Both NZ First and Greens being devoured/Greens near threshold too. So in an MMP environment, how does Labour govern without partners? FPP next election, in all but name. Winston as PM on three percent support…that’ll go down well. Counting chickens dangerous, many polls to go and possibly a Winston scandal or two. Plus fresh new National leader, bring it on!

    • Muttonbird 16.1

      How does Labour govern without partners?

      They’re on 48% and climbing. Too easy.

    • DoublePlusGood 16.2

      In what alternate universe could anyone in the National party possibly be described as ‘fresh’?

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