Daily review 22/06/2022

11 comments on “Daily review 22/06/2022 ”

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1. Ad 1

   22 June 2022 at 6:48 pm

   Fairly chilling the warning of another big variant headed for us, likely evading current immunity.

   Our third year.
   • Poission 1.1

     22 June 2022 at 7:07 pm

     We opened the window and in flew enza.

     https://www.esr.cri.nz/our-services/consultancy/flu-surveillance-and-research/
   • aj 1.2

     23 June 2022 at 8:58 am

     Catastrophists are wondering if Covid-19 is a slow motion extinction event. It might explain the approach China is taking, leaving nothing to chance.
     • RedLogix 1.2.1

       23 June 2022 at 5:07 pm

       If that is the case, what do the CCP know that they are not telling the rest of us?
       • aj 1.2.1.1

         23 June 2022 at 7:29 pm

         Nothing. They take it seriously, most of the rest of the world is on a wing and a prayer.
2. Poission 2

   22 June 2022 at 11:08 pm

   Bloomberg surveillance just named NZ housing bubble as worst in world,and most likely to have substantive correction.(live no link yet)
   • SPC 2.1

     23 June 2022 at 8:16 am

     They also forecast bitcoin to go to $400,000 in 2022.
     • Poission 2.1.1

       23 June 2022 at 11:43 am

       Bitcoins price was argued up by the Purveyor's of the Ponzi scheme,an imaginary token that had no yield.

       The housing bubble here where there are only 96 suburbs nationwide that have affordable homes ( around 500k at the median hose to median income ratio of 5) that has forced both costs in building due to over demand (133 % over commitment of building industry) has created a bubble that needs to break to allow housing to return to affordable levels.

       Building a large number of unaffordable homes is unsustainable,when our national debt is increasing,the current account the highest in absolute terms,and interest rates for housing heading to double figures.

       https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2022-06-22/housing-markets-are-bubbling-all-over-the-world
       • SPC 2.1.1.1

         23 June 2022 at 12:21 pm

         Treasury forecast a pandemic recession and the RBG provided the government with QE money. The government used it to prevent a recession. Unfortunately the RBG also allowed QE cheap money to flow through into the housing market (sans removed deposit criteria). And kept the policy in place even when it was clearly wrong. So values went up 40% – a major mistake with consequences for generation rent.

         It's bad enough that earlier moves to intensification resulted in rising land/property values.

         1. because new housing supply was lower than migration demand

         2. we allowed foreigners (and local speculators/land bankers) to enjoy CGT free profit

         3. the collapse of finance companies and then tighter bank lending with the GFC (2007-2010 period) reduced construction finance for new builds.
         • Poission 2.1.1.1.1

           23 June 2022 at 6:34 pm

           1 All countries with QE and lowered interest rates are experiencing housing bubbles.

           2 All countries that had central bank intervention,as well as Keynesian intervention for Infrastructure, (shovel ready projects etc) have experienced substantive material shocks and inflation.

           3 Whilst NZ was playing catchup with excessive migration (which decreased wage growth and increased housing demand) a number of countries such as Australia experienced net losses of population( 500 k) across the pandemic and still have high housing costs and rental shortages.

           4 Central bank responses globally are now to constrain inflation by interest rate intervention and QT ( qt by the rbnz is not programmed excluding transfers to treasury stock)

           5 The US programme of wealth destruction is to remove unprofitable entities from the investment market,the effect on US existing house mortgages unless selling will be little as they are fixed for 30yr.

           6 In response to the lowering of demand for new housing,US building costs ie retracted by 50% in Lumber,steel ,cement.(the benefit of a well informed market that limits traders over pricing)

           7 Intensive housing developments do not reduce the cost of housing ie make more affordable,they only extend the time of the build,and AK there is only around an increase of 60% net electricity isolation nodes per 100 council compliance certificates.
3. Jenny how to get there 3

   23 June 2022 at 10:43 am

   Something possibly worth following.

   A legal appeal has been filed by Wikipedia in the Russian courts against censorship and fines imposed on Wikipedia by the Russian govt. over the Wikipedia entry on the war in Ukraine.

   It will be interesting to see what the outcome of this court case will be.

   Possibly even more interesting will be the court transcript of the evidence presented in the court backing the wikipedia entry.

   Wikipedia fights Russian order demanding it remove information on Ukraine invasion

   • 14/06/2022

   …..The Foundation was prosecuted under a law about the failure to delete banned information.

   ….Ukraine says it is the victim of an unprovoked imperial-style land grab by Russia and that it will fight to the end to reclaim the territory that Russian forces have occupied…

   ….Russian officials do not use the words "war" or "invasion". They cast it a "special military operation" aimed at preventing the persecution of Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine….

   …..Ukraine and its Western backers deny Moscow's claims that Russian speakers were persecuted.

   …..Russia says the alleged evidence of war crimes consists of carefully constructed fakes….

   https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/technology/2022/06/wikipedia-fights-russian-order-demanding-it-remove-information-on-ukraine-invasion.html?

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