Jacinda Ardern and the govt has fronted and acted quickly and decidedly. Most reasonable New Zealanders will expect the rural sector to accept the medicine and $16million compensation.
I think the a great deal more will go to the farmers, basically to buy the cows that will be destroyed. A milking cow can, apparently, be worth up to $2,000 or so. http://www.progressivelivestock.co.nz/Livestock-for-Sale
Not that I am an expert on the subject. The only thing I ever learnt about cattle was that no sensible farmer ever turned his back to a bull. I only ever spent any time with school holiday jobs on a farm running sheep.
“should be charging them for causing the problem”
You obviously have access to some inside knowledge.
I didn’t think they actually knew how the disease got here.
You, if you are blaming farmers, obviously must know.
Please explain what really happened, and what evidence is there for what you say being true?
That says that the livestock tracking program wasn’t being observed.
It says nothing at all about how the disease got into the country.
If you exceeded the speed limit by 10 kph on one occasion on the freeway can we prosecute and jail you for manslaughter because some idiot did the same on a winding country road and killed a cyclist?
After all you broke a law.
Now please explain. How did the disease get here and was it due to some illegal activity of farmers in general? After all DTB doesn’t appear to want to pay compensation to any farmers.
That says that the livestock tracking program wasn’t being observed.
And so the farmers were breaking the rules and should be fined.
It says nothing at all about how the disease got into the country.
That has to do with National cutting funding for biosecurity.
If you exceeded the speed limit by 10 kph on one occasion on the freeway can we prosecute and jail you for manslaughter because some idiot did the same on a winding country road and killed a cyclist?
No but a charge of attempted manslaughter should probably apply.
Now please explain. How did the disease get here and was it due to some illegal activity of farmers in general?
How the disease got here is a concern. How the disease spread is also a concern. You’re trying to put all the blame on the former and ignore the latter.
But we had rules in place to prevent the spread of disease amongst cattle that the farmers ignored.
So, yeah, the farmers need to be charged and fined.
After all DTB doesn’t appear to want to pay compensation to any farmers.
Damn right I don’t. They’re a major problem across many aspects of society that needs to be dealt with.
I hope that eradication works but I don’t think it will. No other country has managed that. They all seem to control the disease though.
I hope the Government have decided when, and how, they are going to determine that the attempt has succeeded or whether it should be abandoned. We really don’t want to follow the example of the US in Vietnam as shown so vividly on TV recently, where they just kept on and on and on, looking for the light at the end of the tunnel.
I’m sure that Grant Robertson will be happy though. He will probably take Rahm Emanuel’s advice to heart.
“You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it’s an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before”.
I think that Grant will be bringing in about $20 billion a year of new taxes whilst using this as an excuse for another broken promise from the Labour election campaign.
Comparing M Bovis outbreak control in NZ to the US involvement in the war in Vietnam I suspect you have mad cows disease. And please, get off the tax spin.
I wasn’t, as I’m sure you can see comparing the activities as being with the same intentions or morality. You are simply being mendacious in suggesting that I was.
I was merely illustrating the way that people can continue on a path even if it is not working.
Eradication is a worthy aim. The Vietnam war certainly wasn’t.
What about the Boer war, the Korean war, the Iraq war or any other war for that matter. What the hell has “morality” got to do with eradicating M Bovis. This govt is acting to cure a potential epidemic that affects the financial survival of many farmers and a major industry in NZ not go off to some foreign bloody war. And do not accuse me of lying or being deceitful, ever…….unless you have bullet proof evidence.
Looked the word up did you?
While you are about it why don’t you simply read what I say and not try and turn it into something it isn’t?
As far as war goes I think General Sherman got it right. “War is Hell”.
“And there are 10 m cattle in NZ
Thus 150k cows are 1.5% of the stock”
Bugger there goes my silver lining theory that our ‘greenhouse gases’ will dramatically decline over the next couple of years. Oh wells maybe fencing will improve over said time frame instead.
Damo is doing a stellar job on this, he’s had concerns about our biosecurity for a long long time.
I always equate The Standard trying to discuss rural matters to a bunch of 5 year olds attempting quantum physics. They’ve got absolutely no idea what their talking about but it’s mildly amusing watching them try.
Seriously, if you can’t figure out the difference between culls and milking herd with high BW/PW (as per the original poster), then you should probably not post as you end coming off as an idiot to the people that actually know what they’re talking about.
Are you impressed how National spin it though, gotta give them credit for reworking Goebbels propaganda theories in the 21st century. Have a listen to Hooton on air, he is a master at it.
That’s not Godwin’s Law, that’s an old debating saw about invoking Nazis being a lost argument. Godwin’s Law is an observation based on it (although given this is an internet message board of sorts, Godwin was certainly right).
Its not really Goebbels original thought, he credited the’ English’ as masters of it!
It was attributed to Lenin before him and likely many others would have said it too.
This story finds it around 1896 written in a book.
What are the chances that both NZF and the Green Party drop out entirely at the next election and we revert to a two party Parliament?
Is the threshold for getting any seats of 5% an entrenched part of the Electoral Act? On these numbers I can see the otherwise doomed minor parties crashing through an amendment to get rid of the cut-off point.
On the other hand, if Seymour wins that dancing program he is in I can see a massive rise in ACT’s popularity. If he wins I am sure that ACT will take a huge leap upwards and might, just might, reach the 1% level. Well perhaps 0.8%. 1% is probably a bit far.
NZF, remains me of a good stayer at Melbourne Cup or the NZ Cup (the trots) at some stupid odds to win trailing at the rear at the final bend and winning by half a length in the end.
Anyone writing of NZF at this stage of the game is a fool, just like the fool who put a hundred on the nose for the good stayer to win.
It needs to be remembered that the well known axiom which used to be trotted out regularly by past media:
budget and policy announcements take at least two months to filter through to the general public so changes in political fortunes based on them are never instant
are conveniently forgotten by today’s bunch of mediocre media commentators.
Neither do these med. med. commentators ever point out the facts about MMP:
a) the centre right to far right have effectively only one political party to vote for (plus a tiny lunatic fringe led by Seymour) while the centre left to far left have three parties to choose from.
Therefore the appropriate comparison to make is the National Party (on the right) has
blah blah points and Labour, Greens and NZ First (on the left) have blah blah points.
In this case : The right have 45%. The left have 48%. The left are 3% ahead. But of course that’s being honest and doesn’t fit in with the right leaning agenda plus a healthy dose of media ignorance.
Great interview with fact checking by Abby Martin. Colombia and the possible (almost real) collapse of the peace deal with FARC. Interestingly still hundreds of labour leaders, social activist and community leaders being murdered in Colombia by the right. Video just over 18 minutes long.
The numbers across the various polls are starting to look quite resilient. Labour/Greens in government with a bare majority (as is typical of MMP) and National falling short. NZFirst just below the threshold (who wouldn’t back Peters to bridge that 0.8% shortfall in the Colmar Brunton?) and everyone else (who even remembers the Maori Party these days?) irrelevant.
“starting to look quite resilient”.
Hm. You did notice did you that in this poll, just like the Reid Research one, both the Green Party and New Zealand First went down? Even now they are both on the verge of extinction. How much further do you expect them to drop in the next couple of years?
Personally I expect them to follow the example of all the minor parties we have had who went into Government with either National or Labour. They will vanish in exactly the same way that all the others have done. The only question will be whether their voters switch before the election, and their votes will matter in 2020, or whether the few remaining faithful will cling to the party corpses and the votes will be wasted.
Maybe the case with NZ First after Winston goes, but never the case with the Greens. They are different, and are at their nadir now. They will only rise, much to your disappointment. Greenpeace and Greens are a powerful movement – nothing like the shallow base of ACT, Maori Party, NZ First, etc. You heard it first from me, Alwyn, and I think this one is more predictable than the weather.
When the person with the shifting narrative fabricates “evidence” – by misrepresenting the dates of satellite photos, for example – what does that tell you?
A listing of 23 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, January 5, 2025 thru Sat, January 11, 2025. This week's roundup is again published soleley by category. We are still interested in feedback to hone the categorization, so if ...
The future teaches you to be aloneThe present to be afraid and coldSo if I can shoot rabbits, then I can shoot fascists…And if you tolerate thisThen your children will be nextSongwriters: James Dean Bradfield / Sean Anthony Moore / Nicholas Allen Jones.Do you remember at school, studying the rise ...
When National won the New Zealand election in 2023, one of the first to congratulate Luxon was tech-billionaire and entrepreneur extraordinaire Elon Musk.And last year, after Luxon posted a video about a trip to Malaysia, Musk came forward again to heap praise on Christopher:So it was perhaps par for the ...
Hi,Today’s Webworm features a new short film from documentary maker Giorgio Angelini. It’s about Luigi Mangione — but it’s also, really, about everything in America right now.Bear with me.Shortly after I sent out my last missive from the fires on Wednesday, one broke out a little too close to home ...
So soon just after you've goneMy senses sharpenBut it always takes so damn longBefore I feel how much my eyes have darkenedFear hangs in a plane of gun smokeDrifting in our roomSo easy to disturb, with a thought, with a whisperWith a careless memorySongwriters: Andy Taylor / John Taylor / ...
Can we trust the Trump cabinet to act in the public interest?Nine of Trump’s closest advisers are billionaires. Their total net worth is in excess of $US375b (providing there is not a share-market crash). In contrast, the total net worth of Trump’s first Cabinet was about $6b. (Joe Biden’s Cabinet ...
Welcome back to our weekly roundup. We hope you had a good break (if you had one). Here’s a few of the stories that caught our attention over the last few weeks. This holiday period on Greater Auckland Since our last roundup we’ve: Taken a look back at ...
Sometimes I feel like I don't have a partnerSometimes I feel like my only friendIs the city I live in, The City of AngelsLonely as I am together we crySong: Anthony Kiedis, Chad Smith, Flea, John Frusciante.A home is engulfed in flames during the Eaton fire in the Altadena area. ...
Open access notablesLarge emissions of CO2 and CH4 due to active-layer warming in Arctic tundra, Torn et al., Nature Communications:Climate warming may accelerate decomposition of Arctic soil carbon, but few controlled experiments have manipulated the entire active layer. To determine surface-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide and ...
It's election year for Wellington City Council and for the Regional Council. What have the progressive councillors achieved over the last couple of years. What were the blocks and failures? What's with the targeting of the mayor and city council by the Post and by central government? Why does the ...
Over the holidays, there was a rising tide of calls for people to submit on National's repulsive, white supremacist Principles of the Treaty of Waitangi Bill, along with a wave of advice and examples of what to say. And it looks like people rose to the occasion, with over 300,000 ...
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This is a re-post from the Climate BrinkGlobal surface temperatures have risen around 1.3C since the preindustrial (1850-1900) period as a result of human activity.1 However, this aggregate number masks a lot of underlying factors that contribute to global surface temperature changes over time.These include CO2, which is the primary ...
There are times when movement around us seems to slow down. And the faster things get, the slower it all appears.And so it is with the whirlwind of early year political activity.They are harbingers for what is to come:Video: Wayne Wright Jnr, funder of Sean Plunket, talk growing power and ...
Hi,Right now the power is out, so I’m just relying on the laptop battery and tethering to my phone’s 5G which is dropping in and out. We’ll see how we go.First up — I’m fine. I can’t see any flames out the window. I live in the greater Hollywood area ...
2024 was a tough year for working Kiwis. But together we’ve been able to fight back for a just and fair New Zealand and in 2025 we need to keep standing up for what’s right and having our voices heard. That starts with our Mood of the Workforce Survey. It’s your ...
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..I/We wish to make the following comments:I oppose the Treaty Principles Bill."5. Act binds the CrownThis Act binds the Crown."How does this Act "bind the Crown" when Te Tiriti o Waitangi, which the Act refers to, has been violated by the Crown on numerous occassions, resulting in massive loss of ...
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Welcome to 2025. After wrapping up 2024, here’s a look at some of the things we can expect to see this year along with a few predictions. Council and Elections Elections One of the biggest things this year will be local body elections in October. Will Mayor Wayne Brown ...
Canadians can take a while to get angry – but when they finally do, watch out. Canada has been falling out of love with Justin Trudeau for years, and his exit has to be the least surprising news event of the New Year. On recent polling, Trudeau’s Liberal party has ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Much like 2023, many climate and energy records were broken in 2024. It was Earth’s hottest year on record by a wide margin, breaking the previous record that was set just last year by an even larger margin. Human-caused climate-warming pollution and ...
Submissions on National's racist, white supremacist Principles of the Treaty of Waitangi Bill are due tomorrow! So today, after a good long holiday from all that bullshit, I finally got my shit together to submit on it. As I noted here, people should write their own submissions in their own ...
Ooh, baby (ooh, baby)It's making me crazy (it's making me crazy)Every time I look around (look around)Every time I look around (every time I look around)Every time I look aroundIt's in my faceSongwriters: Alan Leo Jansson / Paul Lawrence L. Fuemana.Today, I’ll be talking about rich, middle-aged men who’ve made ...
A listing of 26 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 29, 2024 thru Sat, January 4, 2025. This week's roundup is again published soleley by category. We are still interested in feedback to hone the categorization, so if ...
Hi,The thing that stood out at me while shopping for Christmas presents in New Zealand was how hard it was to avoid Zuru products. Toy manufacturer Zuru is a bit like Netflix, in that it has so much data on what people want they can flood the market with so ...
And when a child is born into this worldIt has no conceptOf the tone of skin it's living inAnd there's a million voicesAnd there's a million voicesTo tell you what you should be thinkingSong by Neneh Cherry and Youssou N'Dour.The moment you see that face, you can hear her voice; ...
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Open access notables Why Misinformation Must Not Be Ignored, Ecker et al., American Psychologist:Recent academic debate has seen the emergence of the claim that misinformation is not a significant societal problem. We argue that the arguments used to support this minimizing position are flawed, particularly if interpreted (e.g., by policymakers or the public) as suggesting ...
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Morena folks,We’re having a good break, recharging the batteries. Hope you’re enjoying the holiday period. I’m not feeling terribly inspired by much at the moment, I’m afraid—not from a writing point of view, anyway.So, today, we’re travelling back in time. You’ll have to imagine the wavy lines and sci-fi sound ...
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Heavy disclaimer: Alpha/beta/omega dynamics is a popular trope that’s used in a wide range of stories and my thoughts on it do not apply to all cases. I’m most familiar with it through the lens of male-focused fanfic, typically m/m but sometimes also featuring m/f and that’s the situation I’m ...
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A listing of 23 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 22, 2024 thru Sat, December 28, 2024. This week's roundup is the second one published soleley by category. We are still interested in feedback to hone the categorization, ...
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Don't you cry tonightI still love you, babyAnd don't you cry tonightDon't you cry tonightThere's a heaven above you, babyAnd don't you cry tonightSong: Axl Rose and Izzy Stradlin“Time is an illusion. Lunchtime doubly so”, said possibly the greatest philosopher ever to walk this earth, Douglas Adams.We have entered the ...
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Hi,It’s my birthday on Christmas Day, and I have a favour to ask.A birthday wish.I would love you to share one Webworm story you’ve liked this year.The simple fact is: apart from paying for a Webworm membership (thank you!), sharing and telling others about this place is the most important ...
The Green Party welcomes the extension of the deadline for Treaty Principles Bill submissions but continues to call on the Government to abandon the Bill. ...
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Uia te pō, rangahaua te pō, whakamāramatia mai he aha tō tango, he aha tō kāwhaki? Whitirere ki te ao, tirotiro kau au, kei hea taku rātā whakamarumaru i te au o te pakanga mo te mana motuhake? Au te pō, ngū te pō, ue hā! E te kahurangi māreikura, ...
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NZ farmers already cull 1 mill dairy cows a year.
Yet we will hear howls of anguish over a possible 150,000 cows for the disease.
Jacinda Ardern and the govt has fronted and acted quickly and decidedly. Most reasonable New Zealanders will expect the rural sector to accept the medicine and $16million compensation.
Compensation will be over $800 mill.
$16 mill is only’ loss of production’ ie milk
That lost production compensation is what will go directly to the affected farmers, as I understand it. I may be wrong.
I think the a great deal more will go to the farmers, basically to buy the cows that will be destroyed. A milking cow can, apparently, be worth up to $2,000 or so.
http://www.progressivelivestock.co.nz/Livestock-for-Sale
Not that I am an expert on the subject. The only thing I ever learnt about cattle was that no sensible farmer ever turned his back to a bull. I only ever spent any time with school holiday jobs on a farm running sheep.
It is shameful we treat sentient beings in this way.
Don’t forget Cowspiracy Ed, that’s good too.
I thought Cowspiracy was crap. All that research and the guy didn’t even know the concept of Permaculture.
To be honest, I’ve only watched the trailer.. But that is compelling. It’s on my ‘to watch’ list.
And how often? You recommended a movie based on a trailer?
I don’t see why not.
Ummm. Ummm. Fuck that’s an idiotic thing to say. Have you actually thought about that?
No need for the aggro, soltka.
Trailers can be great indicators of a film.
and you are another one. But i guess there is no need to actually watch it when you already have your mind closed.
I have seen all 3 films.
Have you?
I’ve seen Cowspiracy, that is the one i commented on. See how it works?
Yes – a good film, but lacks the punch of Earthlings.
One of the best vegan films is ‘Forks over Knives.’
Looks great. I like the final line too: “…eating more plant based foods, it’s that simple.”
It is a brilliant film.
In the film, The China Study provides incontrovertible evidence that a plant based diet is better for your health.
Cowspiracy deals with the environmental argument.
And Earthlings catalogues the cruelty and barbarity of the food industry.
I recommend you watch the other two.
The dark side of the NZ Dairy Industry
And yet we should be charging them for causing the problem.
Some of them should go to court for negligence and breaking safety rules.
That’s true too.
“should be charging them for causing the problem”
You obviously have access to some inside knowledge.
I didn’t think they actually knew how the disease got here.
You, if you are blaming farmers, obviously must know.
Please explain what really happened, and what evidence is there for what you say being true?
We know farmers were breaking the rules.
Try them.
And sentence them.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/opinion/102628844/editorial-outbreak-must-lead-to-better-compliance
That says that the livestock tracking program wasn’t being observed.
It says nothing at all about how the disease got into the country.
If you exceeded the speed limit by 10 kph on one occasion on the freeway can we prosecute and jail you for manslaughter because some idiot did the same on a winding country road and killed a cyclist?
After all you broke a law.
Now please explain. How did the disease get here and was it due to some illegal activity of farmers in general? After all DTB doesn’t appear to want to pay compensation to any farmers.
It certainly spread because of malpractice by farmers.
Trials needed.
And sentencing.
And so the farmers were breaking the rules and should be fined.
That has to do with National cutting funding for biosecurity.
No but a charge of attempted manslaughter should probably apply.
How the disease got here is a concern. How the disease spread is also a concern. You’re trying to put all the blame on the former and ignore the latter.
But we had rules in place to prevent the spread of disease amongst cattle that the farmers ignored.
So, yeah, the farmers need to be charged and fined.
Damn right I don’t. They’re a major problem across many aspects of society that needs to be dealt with.
I hope that eradication works but I don’t think it will. No other country has managed that. They all seem to control the disease though.
I hope the Government have decided when, and how, they are going to determine that the attempt has succeeded or whether it should be abandoned. We really don’t want to follow the example of the US in Vietnam as shown so vividly on TV recently, where they just kept on and on and on, looking for the light at the end of the tunnel.
I’m sure that Grant Robertson will be happy though. He will probably take Rahm Emanuel’s advice to heart.
“You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it’s an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before”.
I think that Grant will be bringing in about $20 billion a year of new taxes whilst using this as an excuse for another broken promise from the Labour election campaign.
Comparing M Bovis outbreak control in NZ to the US involvement in the war in Vietnam I suspect you have mad cows disease. And please, get off the tax spin.
I wasn’t, as I’m sure you can see comparing the activities as being with the same intentions or morality. You are simply being mendacious in suggesting that I was.
I was merely illustrating the way that people can continue on a path even if it is not working.
Eradication is a worthy aim. The Vietnam war certainly wasn’t.
What about the Boer war, the Korean war, the Iraq war or any other war for that matter. What the hell has “morality” got to do with eradicating M Bovis. This govt is acting to cure a potential epidemic that affects the financial survival of many farmers and a major industry in NZ not go off to some foreign bloody war. And do not accuse me of lying or being deceitful, ever…….unless you have bullet proof evidence.
Looked the word up did you?
While you are about it why don’t you simply read what I say and not try and turn it into something it isn’t?
As far as war goes I think General Sherman got it right. “War is Hell”.
And there are 10 m cattle in NZ
Thus 150k cows are 1.5% of the stock
Again persective
Animals killed last year
Cows 934,000
calves and vealers 1,650,000
So the 150,000 is low cf to normal slaughter rate.
https://figure.nz/chart/MvEo5sIoSRn18Ofd
dairy cows are just ‘production units’, so are replaced fairly frequently.
They dont live out their days, its off to the works, mostly hamburger mince.
By any other name
Torture, cruelty and mass murder…..
“And there are 10 m cattle in NZ
Thus 150k cows are 1.5% of the stock”
Bugger there goes my silver lining theory that our ‘greenhouse gases’ will dramatically decline over the next couple of years. Oh wells maybe fencing will improve over said time frame instead.
Damo is doing a stellar job on this, he’s had concerns about our biosecurity for a long long time.
Be the Peace.
Be a Plant-Based Being!
I always equate The Standard trying to discuss rural matters to a bunch of 5 year olds attempting quantum physics. They’ve got absolutely no idea what their talking about but it’s mildly amusing watching them try.
Seriously, if you can’t figure out the difference between culls and milking herd with high BW/PW (as per the original poster), then you should probably not post as you end coming off as an idiot to the people that actually know what they’re talking about.
Not the point.
The point was that 150k is 1.5% of the national herd.
Not that many.
Latest Colmar Brunton
Labour – 43
National – 45
Greens – 5
NZ First – 4.2
ACT – nowhere …
Interesting.
And Bridges is on 12% compared to Jacinda’s 41%.
Just proves the budget was a flop…..according to PB & GB. Does anyone in National understand politics or MMP?
Nationals number after last years budget were unchanged as well- must have been a flop ?
Are you impressed how National spin it though, gotta give them credit for reworking Goebbels propaganda theories in the 21st century. Have a listen to Hooton on air, he is a master at it.
“Goebbels propaganda theories”.
Bingo. Godwin’s law has struck. You lose the debate for being the first to invoke the Nazis.
Aw, come on Alwyn. Some substance, please, instead of primary school Godwin stuff.
That’s not Godwin’s Law, that’s an old debating saw about invoking Nazis being a lost argument. Godwin’s Law is an observation based on it (although given this is an internet message board of sorts, Godwin was certainly right).
Its not really Goebbels original thought, he credited the’ English’ as masters of it!
It was attributed to Lenin before him and likely many others would have said it too.
This story finds it around 1896 written in a book.
https://shmaltzandmenudo.wordpress.com/2017/04/07/famous-sayings-56-repeat-a-lie-often-enough/
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-budget-fails-deliver-boost-labour-but-ardern-up-four-per-cent-preferred-pm
And attention-seeking Judith showing no movement from the previous CB poll at 2%.
Bennett didn’t feature in spite of her attention seeking behaviour.
“ACT – nowhere …”
Just as well they generally win an electoral seat then huh.
One does not win something gifted to them
And National’s current leader, at least, refuses to confirm if the gift of Epsom will continue to be offered.
Just like I ‘won’ some socks and undies on my birthday.
What are the chances that both NZF and the Green Party drop out entirely at the next election and we revert to a two party Parliament?
Is the threshold for getting any seats of 5% an entrenched part of the Electoral Act? On these numbers I can see the otherwise doomed minor parties crashing through an amendment to get rid of the cut-off point.
On the other hand, if Seymour wins that dancing program he is in I can see a massive rise in ACT’s popularity. If he wins I am sure that ACT will take a huge leap upwards and might, just might, reach the 1% level. Well perhaps 0.8%. 1% is probably a bit far.
I don’t know what are the chances we are visited by aliens tomorrow?
“visited by aliens tomorrow”
Trumps not coming here is he?
You are already here, old boy.
Isn’t John key one btw?
We’re already here.
NZF, remains me of a good stayer at Melbourne Cup or the NZ Cup (the trots) at some stupid odds to win trailing at the rear at the final bend and winning by half a length in the end.
Anyone writing of NZF at this stage of the game is a fool, just like the fool who put a hundred on the nose for the good stayer to win.
What are the chances that both NZF and the Green Party drop out entirely at the next election and we revert to a two party Parliament
Approximately NIL
It needs to be remembered that the well known axiom which used to be trotted out regularly by past media:
budget and policy announcements take at least two months to filter through to the general public so changes in political fortunes based on them are never instant
are conveniently forgotten by today’s bunch of mediocre media commentators.
Neither do these med. med. commentators ever point out the facts about MMP:
a) the centre right to far right have effectively only one political party to vote for (plus a tiny lunatic fringe led by Seymour) while the centre left to far left have three parties to choose from.
Therefore the appropriate comparison to make is the National Party (on the right) has
blah blah points and Labour, Greens and NZ First (on the left) have blah blah points.
In this case : The right have 45%. The left have 48%. The left are 3% ahead. But of course that’s being honest and doesn’t fit in with the right leaning agenda plus a healthy dose of media ignorance.
Great interview with fact checking by Abby Martin. Colombia and the possible (almost real) collapse of the peace deal with FARC. Interestingly still hundreds of labour leaders, social activist and community leaders being murdered in Colombia by the right. Video just over 18 minutes long.
The numbers across the various polls are starting to look quite resilient. Labour/Greens in government with a bare majority (as is typical of MMP) and National falling short. NZFirst just below the threshold (who wouldn’t back Peters to bridge that 0.8% shortfall in the Colmar Brunton?) and everyone else (who even remembers the Maori Party these days?) irrelevant.
“starting to look quite resilient”.
Hm. You did notice did you that in this poll, just like the Reid Research one, both the Green Party and New Zealand First went down? Even now they are both on the verge of extinction. How much further do you expect them to drop in the next couple of years?
Personally I expect them to follow the example of all the minor parties we have had who went into Government with either National or Labour. They will vanish in exactly the same way that all the others have done. The only question will be whether their voters switch before the election, and their votes will matter in 2020, or whether the few remaining faithful will cling to the party corpses and the votes will be wasted.
Maybe the case with NZ First after Winston goes, but never the case with the Greens. They are different, and are at their nadir now. They will only rise, much to your disappointment. Greenpeace and Greens are a powerful movement – nothing like the shallow base of ACT, Maori Party, NZ First, etc. You heard it first from me, Alwyn, and I think this one is more predictable than the weather.
From here:
Pic
A book by Nicky Hager published in August 2014 by any chance?
We have been lied to.
Again.
‘Russian MoD: Missiles Shown By MH17 Investigators Were Decommissioned After 2011’
https://sputniknews.com/europe/201805251064798750-missiles-mh17-ministry/
Thanks for that Ed.
Interesting, not surprising though.
The Kremlin’s Shifting, Self-Contradicting Narratives on MH17.
They can’t even lie straight in bed.
As if having a single narrative is a Good Thing™ in an investigation to find the truth.
Lies are coordinated, the truth never is.
When the person with the shifting narrative fabricates “evidence” – by misrepresenting the dates of satellite photos, for example – what does that tell you?
It tells me that they’re lying.
But then so does having a single narrative about what happened from the get go.
Well done for spotting that the Russian MoD are lying.