Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton 28/5/2018

Written By: - Date published: 7:38 pm, May 28th, 2018 - 59 comments
Categories: act, conservative party, greens, labour, maori party, national, nz first, polls - Tags: , , ,

It’s poll night for the second night in a row, so I’ll keep this one a bit more brief.

A chart of the expected outcome from this poll. Greens: 6, Labour: 55, National: 58, ACT: 1.

Click for a dynamic version.

TVNZ appears to have just lost the race for the first post-budget poll, but has given us a much different picture of what’s going on in their poll, despite having basically the same numbers for Labour, National, and the Greens as Reid Research did.

On first blush, this is another poll telling the same story as the last one: Even though NZF is at risk of being under threshold at 4-and-change-percent, Labour and the Greens can hang on and be a government on their own. As expected, NZ First’s result is a little volatile between the two polls, but is still hanging out in danger territory. Reid Research was the poll that got NZ First’s numbers roughly correct before the election, but I’ve generally found it best to assume whoever has them polling highest is correct, so I would point out briefly that this is not actually a guaranteed bump below the threshold yet. If you want to make assumptions about demographics, CB polls cellphones as well as landlines now, RR polls the internet for a quarter of its survey.

Things are a little more complicated than that once we start running the numbers on what sort of government is LIKELY, however, and most of that is simply down to the fact that the Greens are polling a little less than 1% lower this time.

A pie graph of likely government scenarios. Labour governs alone: 0.5%, Labour-green Govt: 45.7%, NZF coalition govt: 1.4%, Hung Parliament: 8.4%, National-ACT govt: 44.1%

So, looking at that graph on the left may be a little terrifying, but let’s analyze it a bit. These simulations represent the Greens being under-threshold 48.3% of the time, which I personally think accounting for the previous polls is an absolutely unrealistic assumption, and should be dismissed out of hand. (any party that’s consistently polling at 5% or above has never fallen below threshold under MMP) If you agree with me, you can basically ignore all chance of a National-ACT government here, and halve the chance of a hung parliament.

If not, there’s still a total 47.6% chance of some form of Labour-led government.

NZF is barely hanging on here, and you get to see Excel’s inconsistent rounding as it gives me a 98.7% chance of them being under threshold, but a 1.4% chance of being in a coalition government of some sort. (some of that 1.4% may include scenarios where the Greens are out but NZF are in, I haven’t bothered to seperate out those two scenarios because at this stage I think that’s unrealistic)

Also worth noting is that the Māori party is hanging in there with their party vote, still doing better than ACT, as they’re on 0.9% and 0.7% respectively.

There was some speculation about the Conservative Party on TVNZ- as such I ran some extra simulations, and assuming they have all the leftover vote of 1.2%, (which is being incredibly overly generous, TVNZ would have mentioned if they were coming in fifth) they would get to form a government with National about 20% of the time if they won an electorate, and could tip the balance to National’s favour about 10% of the time once you account for this poll over-estimating the Greens chances of falling under threshold- if they retained ACT at the same time. The graph to your right had a 51.9% incidence of the Greens under threshold, and a 97.7% chance of NZF there, again showing that even with new Conservative buddies, National would still be relying on gaming the threshold to knock out Labour’s coalition partners, as every single scenario with NZF in Parliament resulted in a Labour-led government.

For those of you following the Preferred PM drama, this poll paints a much different picture, with Collins flat to last month at 2%, and Bridges gaining two points at 12%. (Ardern’s at about 41% on this poll, absolutely crushing it with most Labour voters onside) This is better for Bridges than Reid Research’s preferred PM, but it’s not exactly good either. Bridges will probably be glad preferred PM is such a bunch of rubbish though, as robust polling on his approval would not be coming out well for him right now.

So, overall: A close poll if you rate the chance of the Greens falling under threshold, or a good one for the government if you don’t, but at the least things coming this close should probably have the government rethinking its political strategy to some degree- either to hold onto New Zealand First, or to simply increase the left vote directly so it doesn’t matter whether they do or not. The budget appears to have met expectations, but not really gained a bump for Labour- this is understandable as they front-footed a lot of their priorities into their 100-day plan, so Labour will need to keep delivering the goods if it wants a boost to be sure National is out of striking distance.

59 comments on “Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton 28/5/2018 ”

  1. Enough is Enough 1

    Brilliant analysis Matthew

  2. One Anonymous Bloke 2

    Implement the findings of the Royal Commission. I don’t doubt that the Greens can get over 5%, I just want to hear the whinging right wing scum, whinging.

    • Matthew Whitehead 2.1

      You mean the MMP Review’s recommendations?
      http://www.elections.org.nz/events/past-events-0/2012-mmp-review/results-mmp-review

      Those were:

      • Winning an electorate should no longer allow under-threshold parties to qualify for list seats.
      • If the above is implemented, overhang seats should be removed, fixing the size of parliament at 120.
      • The threshold should be lowered to 4% and reviewed after the fact to consider if this is working, with a report to the MoJ no later than three general elections after the change is implemented.
      • We should give strong consideration to limiting electorate seats to no more than 72. (a 60:40 ratio of electorate to list seats)
      • Parties should give statutory declarations that their rules have been followed in selection, and in any disputes the rules lodged with the Electoral Commission shall be enforced, but there should be no change to the ability of parties to manage their own selection processes.
      • There should be no change to the ability to stand for both the Party List and electorates, nor to the ability of List MPs to contest by-elections.

      Honestly, I think it’s a mixed bag. 4% is much too high of a threshold but at least it’s comparatively better to now, and three elections before the mandatory review kicks in is far too long, but the EC tends to be a bit conservative about electoral reform. But it comes with the cost of electorate parties not being able to bring list MPs with, which would mean in the future we can’t have people like Marama Fox come into Parliament, and that there will essentially be a 4%-or-bust consequence to campaigning for the Party Vote that makes it very, very difficult to start a new party without campaigning for electorates instead.

      I also think 60:40 is far too many electorate seats and risks proportionality under extreme scenarios, (e.g.: Labour or National poll at 25% in a general election) and that we should instead be shooting for 50:50 and reviewing whether to increase the size of Parliament again if we want a number like 72 electorates.

      I also profoundly disagree with the idea of nixing overhang seats altogether- while I don’t like that Parliament is effectively sized dynamically, I also like the effect of potentially removing a list seat from Parliament even less, as it makes it much harder to predict what Parliament will look like and for it to maintain proportionality, simultaneously making the political system more arcane and less representative of NZ. What I would do instead is limit the number of overhang seats allowed, to some fraction of the size of Parliament- say 4% rounded to the nearest seat, which would give you 5 maximum with 120 default seats. Once we go over that 5 in terms of electorates that don’t have list entitlements, then we start removing list seats, basically limiting that measure until we reach extreme scenarios- we’ve never had more than 5 overhang seats to date.

      • alwyn 2.1.1

        Your last paragraph doesn’t make any sense at all.
        You appear to be interpreting what an “overhang” seat is and how many there are quite wrongly.
        An overhang seat is an Electorate seat that is won by a party whose electorate seats won exceed the number of seats that they would be entitled to by their party vote.
        It is not, as you seem to be saying, a list seat that they get because they won an electorate seat but which they would not have got if they hadn’t won an electorate because they were under 5%. That is a quite different debate.

        The only overhang seat in the last Parliament was Peter Dunnes. There were no others. There is no way to get rid of overhang seats without telling an electorate that they cannot have the MP they voted for.
        The only overhang seat in the 2011 election was in the Maori Party. They won 3 electorates although their party vote would only allow for 2 MPs. Again the only way to get rid of the overhang would have been to refuse to accept the public vote for one of those 3 MPs.

        The extra Maori party seat was not an overhang in 2014. They won an electorate and they had enough votes to earn 2 MPs. The second was not an overhang and did not increase the size of Parliament above 120.

        • Matthew Whitehead 2.1.1.1

          Yes, I am aware of what an overhang seat is. You are conflating two different things I’m talking about there. Let’s start with overhangs.

          There are two options when you have an electorate winner who doesn’t have a List seat under an MMP system if you want to guarantee that every electorate winner gets a seat- you can either add an extra overhang seat, or remove a list seat from Parliament to seat that MP. Right now, we have an odd hybrid where we do overhang seats for parties, but remove a list seat for independents. (I think this was done in case there was a glut of “independent” MPs to try and game the system)

          The EC wants to change that to simply removing a list seat all of the time. It’s much more difficult to calculate what Parliament will look like, and who the “loser” from that is, than it is to speculate on what happens if you add an overhang seat.

          What I would prefer is that we seat all winners without a list seat entitlement in our quota of five (or however many) overhang seats first, but if we have a large glut of overhang winners, then we start removing list seats. This makes small attempts to win extra seats viable and less disruptive of proportionality in Parliament, but large attempts will start removing list seats, “punishing” potential electoral allies. The EC’s solution basically makes it not worth National’s time to throw Epsom to ACT, which would have very interesting consequences, but it also means if ACT win it anyway, we have no way of knowing who “loses” that last list seat without knowing the exact balance of party votes in advance.

          The other, separate issue, is that the EC wants to remove the “lifeboat” provision. This is why I was referencing Marama Fox- she was an MP allowed into parliament because winning an electorate seat allows a party to ignore the threshold. This seems like a fair compromize to me, and I think we should continue to allow it. There was no particularly good justification for this decision from the EC, and it seems to be driven by ideological submissions more than a genuine motivation for a healthier democracy, which requires the ability for smaller parties to both grow and shrink depending on their performance. Right now, shrinking is easy in most cases, (with the exception of parties with a safe electorate like ACT) but growing seems to be unreasonably difficult. (Look at what happened to TOP- I’m not a fan, but they deserved to be in Parliament this term)

          • alwyn 2.1.1.1.1

            I had read you comments as all being about Overhang seats. I will have a look at what you said in more detail tomorrow. I don’t have any more time tonight.
            By the way we didn’t choose to have 71 (not 72) electorate seats. We chose instead to have no less than 16 general seats in the South Island. The reason the number of seats continues to increase is simply that the North Island population grows much faster than the South and to keep the electorates the same size (population) we need to keep increasing the number of North Island seats. Would you remove the minimum on SI electorates?
            They will probably increase the number of electorate seats when, or if, we ever manage to get any reliable population numbers from the Census.

            • Matthew Whitehead 2.1.1.1.1.1

              So this is a third thing I was talking about in that post, just to be clear- this problem is that essentially the North Island’s population is growing much faster than the south island, but we have a guaranteed quota of sixteen seats for them in the written part of our constitution, meaning that the North Island regularly gets extra electorates popping up to match their size to the South Island’s electorates, but we aren’t increasing the number of List Seats in Parliament to compensate and keep the ratio between the two under control. If you want in depth thoughts on this, I blogged about it on my old blog here: https://lemattjuste.wordpress.com/2016/11/27/the-south-island-quota-and-why-its-a-problem/

              The EC’s recommendation is that we consider changing the law such that electorates compose a maximum of 60% of seats, (that’s where the number 72 came from, it’s 60% of 120) and that once awarding the South Island its current 16 general seats would conflict with that, we actually start removing electorates from the South Island instead to keep the number of electorates under control. This strikes me as a reasonable compromise if we don’t want to increase the size of Parliament any more, as growing the number of electorate seats increases the chance that Labour or National will one day start winning overhang seats, which should be regarded as a perverse outcome in my view, but it’s not my preferred outcome. (especially as I think they’ve set the ratio dangerously high, with too many electorate seats for comfort. You’ll note I was a bit more relaxed on this subject in my blog, but I think we’ve shown it’s actually quite possible to break list seat parity in recent campaigns, we’re merely lucky it didn’t happen due to Jacindamania. Little’s Labour Party might have done it.)

              I already stated my preferred outcome is actually to increase the number of list seats right now to restore the balance to 50:50 temporarily, (our ratio of MPs to population is actually lower now than it was before we set up MMP and added an extra 21 seats. We’d probably bring that ratio higher than before by expanding to 142 seats, which I am personally okay with, but I can see it not being popular given the reaction to growing Parliament to 120 in the first place) but I would also consider relaxing the south island quota if people were set on 120 MPs max. Either way, we do need to do something to arrest the growth in the number of electorates, as we are reaching unhealthy territory there for our two largest parties where they don’t necessarily get a very large list caucus. Under this solution, we would need to make periodic reviews of the size of Parliament a thing. The EC’s solution builds in periodic reviews, as we already do that based on the Census to draw new electorate boundaries every so often.

              It’s a tradeoff as to what you like the most or least, really: the possibility of regular overhangs even for large-to-medium parties like National and Labour, having a larger parliament that keeps a more reasonable ratio of electorate to list MPs, or having less, geographically larger electorates in the south island to arrest the growth in the number of electorates. Whatever we go, something has to give. For me, the status quo where we keep the South Island quota as-is and don’t change the size of parliament is the worst possible outcome, as my chief concern is proportionality of Parliament, and I don’t really think National or Labour need extra seats. I’m not personally fussed too much between the other two, but I think it’s probably better for south islanders if we don’t make their electorates any geographically larger- the Māori electorates already show how difficult that can be, and we don’t want the deep south feeling similarly hard to campaign in.

              • dukeofurl

                I bet the Nationals are more keen on the RC recommendation of lowering the minimum % threshold for getting into parliament than they were last time.

                • alwyn

                  I think you got the Party name wrong.
                  It will be Labour who will get keener if they think that NZF and the Greens are going to miss out AND Labour aren’t going to poll as well as National.
                  If National think that they can beat Labour and the minnows are all going to disappear they will be only too happy to keep the current threshold.

                  • dukeofurl

                    I dont know the official labour policy on the RC but they did want some changes. It was national who pulled the plug, of course they had support parties around then which they dont have now.
                    They came close to getting a majority on their own in 2014, but that was with John key and Kim Dot Com. Even that fell short at the final count.

                    Reality is both parties NEED more than one partner in government as they dont want to be under the thumb.
                    Imagine national with only maori party being in government, or Act for that matter. both parties want to play their partners off each other.

                    The previous FPP definitely favoured national and I cant see them trying to get the best they can out of MMP as well, and that is by going below 5%

                    eg FPP, this has a table where twice national had less votes but a comfortable majority of seats
                    1978
                    1981

                    plus 1954 they were only 1500 votes ahead but 10 more seats
                    https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/research-papers/document/00PLLawRP11031/parliamentary-voting-systems-in-new-zealand-and-the-referendum

                    a telling line was : FPP doesnt really give the voters the chance to ‘fire a government’ as often as you would think.

                    • Matthew Whitehead

                      Labour had no election policy on the Electoral Commission’s recommendation. During opposition they said they wanted to implement it as presented, but then again it also opposed the TPP in opposition.

                      What you’re talking about is not “having more than one partner,” it’s “strong minority government,” where there is a strong party leading the government that has multiple partners with which to pass bills.

                      We have “multiple coalition partners” now, but only one way to pass bills because the party leading the government is (comparatively) weak and must rely on consensus between all parties. The reason it’s arguably “bad” is because NZ First voters aren’t happy with the rest of govt and the rest of govt isn’t happy with NZ First, which is more a function of them being not very compatible with the rest of the political spectrum in New Zealand than anything else. Consensus type governments work just fine overseas when there is a stronger overlap between partners.

                      Alwyn is right that if you wanted to take a partisan approach to electoral reform, Labour would be well-advised to implement the recommendations, and National would be very brave to consider doing the same. But that’s honestly not how electoral reform should work- you should consider what’s healthy for the country and for increasing voter participation, regardless of who it helps or hurts.

              • dukeofurl

                Theres not really any danger from a party with 30- 40% or more having overhang seats.
                Just look at the numbers last year

                national 15 list seats 41 electorates
                labour 17 list seats 29 electorates

                Its impossible for national to win 56 electorates and be on the edge of an overhang.

                Even at the other end in 2002 when national was 20.9% they were still eligible for list seats -9.

                Germany has a different problem, as their last election with nominal 598 seats produced 111 overhangs, which was a big jump from around 30 in last parliament.
                That happens, I think, because there lists are regionally based

                • Matthew Whitehead

                  Correct, the danger of larger parties getting overhangs happens at about 25% for the National Party, and a little lower for Labour, with close-to-current relative distribution of electoral seats. We were at the stage under Andrew Little where we were genuinely questioning if David Parker was electable as a list-only MP, for instance, so we’ve already had a close brush with “too many electorate MPs.”

                  And yes, Germany’s “problem” isn’t with the relative balance of number of electorates to number of total seats. It’s with a federal constitutional court basically saying that “losing” the national-level effect of your party vote by having it eliminate a regional-level overhang is unconstitutional, as such all regional-level overhang seats in Germany stay national-level overhang seats, but extra list seats are added to balance out that overhang.

                  You all know I’m gung-ho about discussing that sort of thing, but that’s a 301-level discussion about electoral systems, and I’ve only really gotten us to about 151-level on that so far.

      • Gosman 2.1.2

        Why does NZ have a threshold anyway?

        • Matthew Whitehead 2.1.2.1

          The official reasoning is that counting votes for smaller parties can result in “unstable government” by picking inexperienced political candidates, or having inexperienced party leaders go into coalition with a party that they don’t have sufficient common ground with in order to get a slightly better deal, and end up resulting in a snap election.

          To which my response is: have you seen New Zealand First? Clearly 5% is the highest they were willing to go in sacrificing proportionality, and that wasn’t enough, so we might as well start lowering it and let people vote based on how stable and experienced they think a party will be. Stability of government has always been something that is best determined by the election campaign, not the electoral system.

          Some people claim there is an unofficial reason that it keeps the nazis and fundies out, but that claim is just as spurious as the stability one- NZF are just slightly more respectful nationalists, and UF brought the fundies in. As long as there’s a free press, extreme results can happen- stability is in how the other, more established parties deal with those results after the fact, and we’ve gotten pretty good at that after having a shock lesson in ’96.

    • cleangreen 2.2

      Ha ha ha OAB.
      I love your statement here; “I just want to hear the whinging right wing scum, whinging.”

      These polls are folly really.

      I prefer to leave time to show the real picure of wherebiit’s going, as a lot of water needs to be passing over the bridge until 2020.

      As far as the gloomy ‘predictions of NZF – I know Winston and met him several times and his planed policies are the best available for NZ but unfortunately Labour has not taken some of his best policies on-board yet.

      I predict as labour slides they will turn to their partners and decide to take some more of his policies on-board.

      I wouldn’t signal NZF First’s demise yet as “there is a lot of water to pass under the bridge” yet Chis, and I acknowledge that you are not very keen on Winston or NZF.
      he cant be put in the “Dancing for Stars Politicians graveyard” along with Fox, Seymour and all others gone before.

      Fox was far better than Seymour but why is HE still in that competition???????

    • james 2.3

      “I just want to hear the whinging right wing scum, whinging.”

      Sadly for you – thats not really happening – most of us that I have spoken to are quite happy with the poll results.

      • One Anonymous Bloke 2.3.1

        …whinging about the findings of the MMP review being implemented.

      • Baba Yaga 2.3.2

        A new government, with a popular leader, hot on the heals of its first budget…

        …is still polling behind the main party of opposition.

        I hate to admit it, but Bradbury’s closer to mark on the trouble Labour have than most from the left https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2018/05/28/tvnz-colmar-poll-and-evidence-of-the-new-ally-party-tdb-warned-you-about-months-ago/.

        • Hanswurst 2.3.2.1

          The government is not polling behind the main party of opposition. What you are observing is that those who would prefer a Labour-led government have a greater willingness to vote for the policy mixes of the main party’s coalition partners than is the case with their National-voting counterparts.

          • Baba Yaga 2.3.2.1.1

            You’re kidding yourself.

            According to this latest poll and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_general_election,_2017, NZF have dropped from 7.2% to 4.2%, the Greens have dropped from 6.27% to 5%. National are up marginally to 45%, Labour have risen from 36.89% to 43%. Both NZF and the Greens have both shed support post election, which means Labour’s current coalition partners are showing LESS willingness to vote for policy mixes of the main party’s coalition partners.

            • Wow 2.3.2.1.1.1

              Being MMP and all, the government is not just Labour, nor the Greens nor NZF, it is all three, and is still not polling behind the main party of opposition, just like Hanswurst said.

              Why aren’t you consistent in your use of decimals?

              • Baba Yaga

                “Why aren’t you consistent in your use of decimals?”
                The sources I used don’t treat the decimals the same.

                “Being MMP and all, the government is not just Labour”
                This is a ‘Labour led Government’. It’s two support parties are now polling below the 5% threshold. Labour is in charge, and they need to own the cock up their making of the country.

  3. Kat 3

    Can’t see Hooton agreeing with this analysis, doesn’t quite fit the Goebbels propaganda book of expected dead cert public opinion reaction to strawman policy spin tactics. At least 30% of the 45.1% are dead………cert National supporters, the rest are pure greedy. We live in divided times.

    • Matthew Whitehead 3.1

      Honestly Hooton agreeing with me would be shocking, I’m quite happy to have a different take on things than him.

      • Kat 3.1.1

        Perhaps a stint on 9>Noon….. some facts instead of constant fiction/spin would be welcome by many listeners.

    • cleangreen 3.2

      Kat; 100% well said.

    • Matthew Whitehead 3.3

      You’ll all be amused to know Hooton has now quoted my numbers (in the most misleading fashion possible) and disagrees with my analysis, even when I called him on not mentioning it on Twitter. XD

  4. Sanctuary 4

    If the Greens are hovering around 5% at the next election then, given their historic problem of getting their lazy-ass supporters to actually vote on the day, Labour would be crazy not to let them have an electorate seat as a lifeboat. If the Greens keep up their low polling, I would expect Labour to start the groundwork for a lifeboat seat for the Greens (and possibly another for NZ First) around this time next year.

    5% vote = 6 seats.

    4.5% vote = 0 seats.

    4.5% vote + lifeboat electorate = 5 seats.

    • Puckish Rogue 4.1

      But but but gifting an electorate seat is like the absolute worst thing in the world ever and something only the right would do, isn’t it?

      • Robert Guyton 4.1.1

        It stains a party’s record but it depends on what’s at stake; they might be prepared to take a hit to their reputation if it saves the country from another round of National’s destructive behaviour 🙂

        • Puckish Rogue 4.1.1.1

          Thats fantastic,” we don’t want to do it but with a heavy heart (and much soul searching) we’ve decided its better if we stay in power” 🙂

          • Robert Guyton 4.1.1.1.1

            I imagine that’s why any party does this, rather than to be vindictive. Judith Collins, however, would do it for spite!

          • mac1 4.1.1.1.2

            It’s a variation of the ethical argument example of the ‘trolley problem’ and the training I had as a boy of the principle of the double effect. Is it permissible to use the technique of doing deals over electorates to gain electoral advantage if it is legal, the other side is already doing it, and the harm caused by the other side winning is greater than the harm caused by pursuing electoral advantage by ethically questionable methods?

            It’s a moral philosophy course in itself.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_problem

            What a way to start a day!

            • Puckish Rogue 4.1.1.1.2.1

              Well for me, in this instance, is it legal and if it is then its fine. I mean I’m sure everyone in Epsom is aware of the ramifications of their actions just like everyone was aware in the Coromandal when Helen Clark openly encouraged Labour voters to vote for Jeanette Fitzsimons

              So to me its all good…well maybe not all good but its legal and everyone knows whats happening

      • Matthew Whitehead 4.1.2

        Neither side should have to do it. We should just lower the threshold to be more reasonable. It is silly that electorates need to be used as a workaround to get perfectly electable parties into Parliament, and are simultaneously propping up parties that are all-but-dead at the same time.

    • The Chairman 4.2

      “Labour would be crazy not to let them have an electorate seat as a lifeboat.”

      On current polling, perhaps. However, if things change and Labour think they can do it alone, they will.

      Labour could also look at allowing the Greens a significant policy win to help up lift their support.

      Holding the cannabis referendum before the election won’t encourage those lazy-ass supporters (as you put it) to actually vote on election day. So Labour aren’t doing the Greens any favours there.

  5. These polls are an approximate indication of current party support, but they are meaningless regarding the 2020 election, which looks like being contested on things like performance in housing and the Provincial Development Fund.

    How the three party government holds together could also be a factor, as well as things that can have direct impact on voters like petrol prices and mortgage interest rates.

    But in particular it may be contested on what Labour and Greens decide to campaign on as result of any outcome of the Tax Working Group, and also of the “expert advisory group to support the overhaul of the welfare system” that was announced yesterday.

    There’s no way of knowing at this stage how this may all pan out.

    • Anne 5.1

      Very true PG.
      Goodness me, I’ve been agreeing with Pete a few times lately. 😯

    • The Chairman 5.2

      There will be a lolly scramble to help offset any negativity resulting from the out come of the Tax Working Group.

    • Matthew Whitehead 5.3

      I agree with you it’s too early to tell anything about 2020. This is an indication of what the poll would tell you if we had a snap election right now.

  6. The Chairman 6

    Considering the policy gains the Greens have achieved, they must be awfully concerned with their downward trend in the polls. What can the Greens possibly pull out of their hat now to turn that downward trend around?

    And considering Winston’s support of the TPP coupled with his win for foreign aid, it’s no surprise NZF are polling so low.

    Labour should be concerned there was no large bounce from the budget, seems the appetite for fiscal constraint isn’t that large. Nevertheless, should still be happy their support didn’t take a major dive.

    Nat’s will be happy they’re still polling strong, but disappointed they don’t have the numbers to form a Government. If only they had friends.

  7. greywarshark 7

    See The Daily Blog for Chris Trotters view on Winston and how NZF are being perceived.

  8. Phil 8

    These simulations represent the Greens being under-threshold 48.3% of the time, which I personally think accounting for the previous polls is an absolutely unrealistic assumption, and should be dismissed out of hand. (any party that’s consistently polling at 5% or above has never fallen below threshold under MMP).

    Bad use of polling.

    • Matthew Whitehead 8.1

      Your reply is unhelpfully vague. What’s bad? The conclusion that the simulation is accurate, or my conclusion that based on earlier polling-vs-election comparisons parties polling over 5% consistently are unlikely to go under threshold at all?

  9. CHCOff 9

    Chasing polls is about chasing the media narrative, which is fruitless as that essentially means chasing the National Party apparatus in one way or another, which is just more tomfoolery.

    Governing should be a quiet non threatening way to build up the respective party brands, with the politicking for last 6 months of election build up. Elections are about personalities, but i’d say that in between times, partys (particularly governing ones) have the opportunity to demonstrate their values in what they are in making their brand.

    As per usual, NZ1st will be higher than what’s given, the Greens lower.

    Labour shouldn’t be Jacinda, but be a team that embodies what Jacinda brings to the table, NZ1st should wake up some autonomy among National party voters out of their structural stupor, and the Greens should resurect Rod Donald in unifying environmental moderates across the spectrum with the organising of radical leftie anarchists as something useful to a sensible progressive political direction.

    Sounds about right to me anyhow!

    • Matthew Whitehead 9.1

      Actually comparing the 2008 polls to the election suggests that after being in Government NZFirst doesn’t tend to under-poll/have a late surge the way it does while in opposition, so… *shrug*

      (I think a “late surge” is probably the better description of what happens with the NZF vote, personally, as it has been reflected in late polls before, which would indicate it’s not so much under-polling as their campaign becomes dramatically more effective in the last few days before the election. This likely reflects NZ First’s appeal with swing voters who don’t make up their mind very early, but that appeal seems to go away when they’re in government- almost as if they’re a party that benefits from anti-establishment populism, huh?)

    • alwyn 9.2

      “Greens should resurect Rod Donald”
      Now that would really be something.
      I reminds me of the advice on how to start a successful religion.
      First you die. Then you come back to life.
      Somehow I don’t think it is going to happen in the case of the Green Party.

      With all due respect to the man, and I did respect him, we go back to the old song
      “Rod Donald’s body lies a- mouldering in the grave
      Rod Donald’s body lies a- mouldering in the grave
      Rod Donald’s body lies a- mouldering in the grave
      His soul is marching on”

      Sorry, but after the Parties backing the fraud of its then chromosome XX leader I’m afraid his soul has turned up its toes and shrivelled away.

      • Incognito 9.2.1

        Sorry, but after the Parties backing the fraud of its then chromosome XX leader I’m afraid his soul has turned up its toes and shrivelled away.

        You make it sound like the alleged fraud was committed when MT was co-leader of the party, which is of course far from the truth. Has she been charged with anything?

        The only thing that’s shrivelling here is the quality of your comments.

  10. Jackel 10

    Lies, damn lies and statistics. Tories aren’t known as a sympathetic lot if you’re having a hard day so I don’t have a lot of sympathy for them. But it’s up to each individual to figure out how the system is screwing them over and use their vote accordingly. Or otherwise organise but don’t expect help where you think you should get it.

    • Matthew Whitehead 10.1

      The point of that phrase is not to distrust statistics. It is to warn of statistics used for the purposes of spin.

      I am very consistent about my modelling and tell you whenever I change something.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Nicola Willis brings us up to date with state service job cuts – while Tamatha Paul (is this overk...
    Buzz from the Beehive Finance Minister Nicola Willis has estimated the loss of around 2500 jobs from the public sector during the cost-saving since the general election last October. Another 1150 vacancies in Government departments have been removed from the books  and 500 are expected to go, she said during ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    56 mins ago
  • Bryce Edwards: Is it time for an Integrity Commission to monitor conflicts of interest?
    News that the Government’s new Parliamentary Undersecretary for Health, Todd Stephenson, has been pressured today to sell his investments in pharmaceutical companies shows how New Zealand is becoming more sensitive and suspicious about politicians’ “conflicts of interest”. Yet, we need to get much more serious about creating rules and procedures ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    2 hours ago
  • Forget the loud-hailers Minister, what you need is TikTok
    Chris Trotter writes – It almost worked. “Matua Shane”, local supporters in tow, advanced down the main street of Blackball. Had the Minister for Resources, Shane Jones, been supplied with a full-sized loud-hailer to amplify his pro-mining slogans, then the photo-op would have been an unqualified success. Unfortunately, the ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 hours ago
  • Did the Reserve Bank massage its OCR forecasts to help Labour keep power? (we’ve found evidence po...
    Rob MacCulloch writes –  Last year, in the lead up to the national election, Governor Orr said in May 2023 that he was “very confident” there would not be further interest rate hikes, stating the Reserve Bank had done enough in terms of rate rises. He was interviewed by ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 hours ago
  • Parliament’s increasingly toxic ethnic identity wars
    Bryce Edwards writes Toxicity and disinformation are becoming a big part of New Zealand politics. And much of this relates to debates about ethnicity, race, and racism. We should all be concerned about this trend. Personal abuse, dishonesty, and contempt in the public sphere are bad for democracy, ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 hours ago
  • Bernard’s Dawn Chorus and pick ‘n’ mix for Tuesday, May 28
    House-building and infrastructure industry leaders are begging the Government for project-pipeline certainty and warning of a 2009/10-style exodus of skilled staff overseas. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government won last year’s election with a pledge to ‘get things done’ and ‘get New Zealand back on ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 hours ago
  • Slippery People.
    What's the matter with him? (He's alright)How do you know? (The Lord won't mind)Don't play no games (he's alright)Love from the bottom to the top.You’re alright, but how about her, or him? What makes them tick? Are they a solid citizen or a slippery fecker? Why are we all so ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    10 hours ago
  • Children’s Voices in Auckland’s Future
    Recently, the transport consultancy Crank publicly released a report about children’s vision for transport in Auckland. It was produced in 2023 to help shape Auckland Council’s Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) Reduction Strategy. That got me thinking, and after going back to the recent Long Term Plan Consultation Feedback results, one ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    10 hours ago
  • Med school backdown the “right thing” says Seymour
    One of National’s showpiece election promises appears to be in more trouble with Waikato University yesterday withdrawing its call for tenders to develop a new medical school. The move will delay any substantial increase in the number of doctors being trained in New Zealand. The University’s decision just over a ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    12 hours ago
  • Of ‘said’ and Dialogue Tags in Writing
    Today, I ran across a Twitter thread about writerly use of the word ‘said’: https://x.com/APoetForThePyre/status/1794895108581859794 As a writer, I have my opinions about this, and since it has been a long, long time since I offered thoughts on the unwritten rules of writing, I thought I would explore the matter ...
    21 hours ago
  • The silent tragedy of local restrictions on renewable energy
    This story by James Goodwin was originally published by The Revelator and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. Communities across the United States may soon find themselves facing a grim scenario. By adopted local ordinances that obstruct the development of new renewable energy resources within ...
    22 hours ago
  • Bryce Edwards: Parliament’s increasingly toxic ethnic identity wars
    Toxicity and disinformation are becoming a big part of New Zealand politics. And much of this relates to debates about ethnicity, race, and racism. We should all be concerned about this trend. Personal abuse, dishonesty, and contempt in the public sphere are bad for democracy, social cohesion, and the integrity ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    1 day ago
  • What to say on the government’s racist Māori wards bill
    I've spent the afternoon working on my submission on the Local Government (Electoral Legislation and Māori Wards and Māori Constituencies) Amendment Bill - National's racist bill to eliminate Māori representation from local government. It's an important bill, and the timeframe for submissions is tight - only two days left! National ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • Collins will be abroad when critics react to science funding – but Matauranga money should not be ...
    Buzz from the Beehive With just a few days to go before Finance Minister Nicola Willis delivers her first Budget speech, her colleagues have been focused in recent days on issues beyond our shores. Education Minister Erica Stanford made the only announcement of concern to citizens who want to know ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 day ago
  • New Caledonia’s troubles
    James Kierstead writes –  White sand beaches. Palm trees waving in a gentle breeze. Seas of turquoise and ultramarine, cobalt and denim stretching out as far as the eye can see.  Such is the view of New Caledonia that you get on travel websites. And it’s not an ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago
  • The Negative social impact of taxpayer-funded partisan charities
    Bryce Edwards writes –  Whenever politicians dole out taxpayer funding to groups or individuals, they must do so in a wholly transparent way with due process to ensure conflicts of interest don’t occur and that the country receives value for money. Unfortunately, it’s not clear that this has ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago
  • The Letter from Mayors & Chairs
    Frank Newman writes –  Earlier this week Local Government NZ sent a letter to the leaders of the coalition parties and Ministers Simeon Brown and Tama Potaka. It was signed by 52 local government leaders (see list appended). The essence of the letter is this: Our position…is ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago
  • Gordon Campbell on South Africa’s harsh election choices
    T he ANC’s goal in Wednesday’s election will be to staunch the bleeding of its support. The ANC has reason to feel anxious. For months, the polls have been indicating the ANC will lose its overall majority for the first time since the Mandela election of 1994. The size of ...
    1 day ago
  • The Kaka’s diary for the week to June 3 and beyond
    TL;DR: The six key events to watch in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy in the week to June 3 include:PM Christopher Luxon is expected to hold his weekly post-cabinet news conference at 4:00pm today.Parliament’s Environment Select Committee resumes hearing submissions on the Fast-track Approvals Bill from 9:00 am to 5:00 pm today.Auckland ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago
  • May-24 AT Board Meeting
    Tomorrow the AT board meet again and I’ve taken a look through the items on their public agenda to see what’s interesting. It’s also the first meeting for two recently appointed directors, former director at Ritchies Transport, Andrew Ritchie and former mayor of Hamilton, Julie Hardaker. The public session starts ...
    1 day ago
  • Bernard’s Dawn Chorus and pick ‘n’ mix for Monday, May 27
    The Government is looking again at changing fringe benefit tax rules to make it harder to claim a personally-used double-cab ute as a company vehicle. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Having repealed the previous Government’s ‘ute tax’ last year, the new Government is looking at removing a defacto tax ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago
  • Some Dark Moments from Netflix's Dark Tourist
    Hi,I pitched a documentary to a big streamer last week and they said “no thanks” which is a bummer, because we’d worked on the concept for ages and I think it would have been a compelling watch. But I would say that because I was the one pitching it, right?As ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 day ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #21
    A listing of 34 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, May 19, 2024 thru Sat, May 25, 2024. Story of the week This week's typiclal compendium of stories we'd rather were plot devices in science ficition novels but instead ...
    2 days ago
  • National’s bulldozer dictatorship bill
    This National government has been aggressively anti-environment, and is currently ramming through its corrupt Muldoonist "fast-track" legislation to give three ministers dictatorial powers over what gets built and where. But that's not the only thing they're doing. On Thursday they introduced a Resource Management (Freshwater and Other Matters) Amendment Bill, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Bryce Edwards: The Negative social impact of taxpayer-funded partisan charities
    Whenever politicians dole out taxpayer funding to groups or individuals, they must do so in a wholly transparent way with due process to ensure conflicts of interest don’t occur and that the country receives value for money. Unfortunately, it’s not clear that this has occurred in the announcement this week ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    2 days ago
  • My Lovely Man.
    Last night began earlier than usual. In bed by 6:30pm, asleep an hour later. Sometimes I do sleep odd hours, writing late and/or getting up very early - complemented with the occasional siesta, but I’m usually up a bit later than that on a Saturday night. Last night I was ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago
  • Pressing the Big Red Button
    Early in the COVID-19 days, the Boris Johnson government pressed a Big Red Button marked: act immediately, never mind about the paperwork.Their problem was: not having enough PPE gear for all the hospital and emergency staff. Their solution was to expedite things and get them the gear ASAP.This, along with ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • Of Pensioners and Student Loans: An Indictment on New Zealand
    Up until 1989, you could attend a New Zealand University, and never need to pay a cent for your education. That then changed, of course. The sadists of the Fourth Labour Government introduced substantial fees for study, never having had to pay a cent for their own education. The even ...
    3 days ago
  • Putting children first
    Ele Ludemann writes –  Minister for Children Karen Chhour is putting children first: Hon KAREN CHHOUR: I move, That the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill be now read a first time. I nominate the Social Services and Community Committee to consider the bill. It’s a privilege ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Te Pati Maori go personal
    David Farrar writes –  Newshub reports:    Applause and cheers erupted in the House on Wednesday afternoon as Children’s Minister Karen Chhour condemned Te Pāti Māori’s insults about her upbringing. Chhour, who grew up in state care, is repealing section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act – sparking uproar from ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Threads of Corruption
    I could corrupt youIt would be uglyThey could sedate youBut what good would drugs be?Good Morning all,Today there’s a guest newsletter from Gerard Otto (G). By which I mean I read his post this morning and he has kindly allowed me to share it with you.If you don’t already I ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • The days fly by
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Share Read more ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • Aotearoa, you’re being dismantled… so take the blinkers off and start talking honestly about it.
    Is the solution to any of the serious, long term issues we all have to face as a nation, because many governments of all stripes we can probably all admit if we’re deeply truthful with ourselves haven’t done near enough work at the very times they should have, to basically ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    4 days ago
  • Has Labour Abandoned the Welfare State They Created in 1938?
    The 2018 Social Security Act suggests that Labour may have retreated to the minimalist (neo-liberal) welfare state which has developed out of the Richardson-Shipley ‘redesign’. One wonders what Michael Joseph Savage, Peter Fraser and Walter Nash would have thought of the Social Security Act passed by the Ardern Labour Government ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    4 days ago
  • Bryce Edwards: MPs’ financial interests under scrutiny
    MPs are supposed to serve the public interest, not their own self-interest. And according to the New Zealand Parliament’s website, democracy and integrity are tarnished whenever politicians seek to enrich themselves or the people they are connected with. For this reason, the Parliament has a “Register of Pecuniary Interests” in ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    4 days ago
  • Mastering FLICC – A Cranky Uncle themed quiz
    By now, most of you will have heard about the FLICC taxonomy of science denial techniques and how you can train your skills in detecting them with the Cranky Uncle game. If you like to quickly check how good you are at this already, answer the 12 quiz questions in the ...
    4 days ago
  • Shane Jones has the zeal, sure enough, but is too busy with his mining duties (we suspect) to be ava...
    Buzz from the Beehive The hacks of the Parliamentary Press Gallery have been able to chip into a rich vein of material on the government’s official website over the past 24 hours. Among the nuggets is the speech by Regional Development Minister Shane Jones and a press statement to announce ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • Cut the parliamentary term
    When Labour was in power, they wasted time, political capital, and scarce policy resources on trying to extend the parliamentary term to four years, in an effort to make themselves less accountable to us. It was unlikely to fly, the idea having previously lost two referendums by huge margins - ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • More terrible media ethics
    David Farrar writes – The Herald reports: When Whanau Ora chief executive John Tamihere was asked what his expectations for the Budget next Thursday were, he said: “All hope is lost.” Last year Whānau Ora was allocated $163.1 million in the Budget to last for the next four years ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Bringing our democracy into disrepute
    On Monday the government introduced its racist bill to eliminate Māori represntation in local government to the House. They rammed it through its first reading yesterday, and sent it to select committee. And the select committee has just opened submissions, giving us until Wednesday to comment on it. Such a ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • The censors who’ll save us from ourselves… yeah right!
    Nick Hanne writes – There’s a common malady suffered by bureaucracies the world over. They wish to save us from ourselves. Sadly, NZ officials are no less prone to exhibiting symptoms of this occupational condition. Observe, for instance, the reaction from certain public figures to the news ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • The case for commissioners to govern the capital city
    Peter Dunne writes – As the city of Tauranga prepares to elect a new Mayor and Council after three and a half years being run by government-appointed Commissioners, the case for replacing the Wellington City Council with Commissioners strengthens. The Wellington City Council has been dysfunctional for years, ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Thoughts about contemporary troubles.
    This will be s short post. It stems from observations I made elsewhere about what might be characterised as some macro and micro aspects of contemporary collective violence events. Here goes. The conflicts between Israel and Palestine and France and … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    4 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell On Blurring The Lines Around Political Corruption
    It may be a relic of a previous era of egalitarianism, but many of us like to think that, in general, most New Zealanders are as honest as the day is long. We’re good like that, and smart as. If we’re not punching above our weight on the world stage, ...
    4 days ago
  • MPs own 2.2 houses on average
    Bryce Edwards writes – Why aren’t politicians taking more action on the housing affordability crisis? The answer might lie in the latest “Register of Pecuniary Interests.” This register contains details of the various financial interests of parliamentarians. It shows that politicians own real estate in significant numbers. The ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • King Mike & Mike King.
    I built a time machine to see you againTo hear your phone callYour voice down the hallThe way we were back thenWe were dancing in the rainOur feet on the pavementYou said I was your second headI knew exactly what you meantIn the country of the blind, or so they ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Bryce Edwards: MPs own 2.2 houses on average
    Why aren’t politicians taking more action on the housing affordability crisis? The answer might lie in the latest “Register of Pecuniary Interests.” This register contains details of the various financial interests of parliamentarians. It shows that politicians own real estate in significant numbers. The register published on Tuesday contains a ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    4 days ago
  • How much climate reality can the global financial system take without collapsing?
    Microsoft’s transparency about its failure to meet its own net-zero goals is creditable, but the response to that failure is worrying. It is offering up a set of false solutions, heavily buttressed by baseless optimism. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s the top six news items of note in ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 24-May-2024
    Another Friday, another Rāmere Roundup! Here are a few things that caught our eye this week. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday, our new writer Connor Sharp roared into print with a future-focused take on the proposed Auckland Future Fund, and what it could invest in. On ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    4 days ago
  • Earning The Huia Feather.
    Still Waiting: Māori land remains in the hands of Non-Māori. The broken promises of the Treaty remain broken. The mana of the tangata whenua languishes under racist neglect. The right to wear the huia feather remains as elusive as ever. Perhaps these three transformations are beyond the power of a ...
    4 days ago
  • Bernard’s Dawn Chorus and pick ‘n’ mix for Friday, May 24
    Posters opposing the proposed Fast-Track Approvals legislation were pasted around Wellington last week. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: One of the architects of the RMA and a former National Cabinet Minister, Simon Upton, has criticised the Government’s Fast-Track Approvals bill as potentially disastrous for the environment, arguing just 1% ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to May 24
    There was less sharing of the joy this week than at the Chinese New Year celebrations in February. China’s ambassador to NZ (2nd from right above) has told Luxon that relations between China and New Zealand are now at a ‘critical juncture’ Photo: Getty / Xinhua News AgencyTL;DR: The podcast ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Beijing troubleshooter’s surprise visit
    The importance of New Zealand’s relationship with China was surely demonstrated yesterday with the surprise arrival in the capital of top Chinese foreign policy official Liu Jianchao. The trip was apparently organized a week ago but kept secret. Liu is the Minister of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) International Liaison ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • UK election a foregone conclusion?  That’s why it’s interesting
    With a crushing 20-plus point lead in the opinion polls, all the signs are that Labour leader Keir Starmer will be the PM after the general election on 4 July, called by Conservative incumbent Rishi Sunak yesterday. The stars are aligned for Starmer.  Rival progressives are in abeyance: the Liberal-Democrat ...
    Point of OrderBy xtrdnry
    5 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #21 2021
    Open access notables How much storage do we need in a fully electrified future? A critical review of the assumptions on which this question depends, Marsden et al., Energy Research & Social Science: Our analysis advances the argument that current approaches reproduce interpretations of normality that are, ironically, rooted in ...
    5 days ago
  • Days in the life
    We returned last week from England to London. Two different worlds. A quarter of an hour before dropping off our car, we came to a complete stop on the M25. Just moments before, there had been six lanes of hurtling cars and lorries. Now, everything was at a standstill as ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago
  • Forget about its name and focus on its objective – this RMA reform bill aims to cut red tape (and ...
    Buzz from the Beehive A triumvirate of ministers – holding the Agriculture, Environment and RMA Reform portfolios – has announced the introduction of legislation “to slash the tangle of red and green tape throttling development in key sectors”, such as farming, mining and other primary industries. The exact name of ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • More National corruption
    In their coalition agreement with NZ First, the National Party agreed to provide $24 million in funding to the charity "I Am Hope / Gumboot Friday". Why were they so eager to do so? Because their chair was a National donor, their CEO was the son of a National MP ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Submit!
    The Social Services and Community Committee has called for submissions on the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill. Submissions are due by Wednesday, 3 July 2024, and can be made at the link above. And if you're wondering what to say: section 7AA was enacted because Oranga Tamariki ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Reading the MPS numbers thinking about the fiscal situation
    Michael Reddell writes –  The Reserve Bank doesn’t do independent fiscal forecasts so there is no news in the fiscal numbers in today’s Monetary Policy Statement themselves. The last official Treasury forecasts don’t take account of whatever the government is planning in next week’s Budget, and as the Bank notes ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Charter Schools are a worthwhile addition to our school system – but ACT is mis-selling why they a...
    Rob MacCulloch writes – We know the old saying, “Never trust a politician”, and the Charter School debate is a good example of it. Charter Schools receive public funding, yet “are exempt from most statutory requirements of traditional public schools, including mandates around .. human capital management .. curriculum ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Paranoia On The Left.
    How Do We Silence Them? The ruling obsession of the contemporary Left is that political action undertaken by individuals or groups further to the right than the liberal wings of mainstream conservative parties should not only be condemned, but suppressed.WEB OF CHAOS, a “deep dive into the world of disinformation”, ...
    5 days ago
  • Budget challenges
    Muriel Newman writes –  As the new Government puts the finishing touches to this month’s Budget, they will undoubtedly have had their hands full dealing with the economic mess that Labour created. Not only was Labour a grossly incompetent manager of the economy, but they also set out ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Rishi calls an Election.
    Today the British PM, Rishi Sunak, called a general election for the 4th of July. He spoke of the challenging times and of strong leadership and achievements. It was as if he was talking about someone else, a real leader, rather than he himself or the woeful list of Tory ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Photo of the Day: GNR
    This post marks the return of an old format: Photo of the Day. Recently I was in an apartment in one of those new buildings on Great North Road Grey Lynn at rush hour, perfect day, the view was stunning, so naturally I whipped out my phone: GNR 5pm Turns ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    5 days ago
  • Choosing landlords and the homeless over first home buyers
    The Government may struggle with the political optics of scrapping assistance for first home buyers while also cutting the tax burden on landlords, increasing concerns over the growing generational divide. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The Government confirmed it will dump first home buyer grants in the Budget next ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Orr’s warning; three years of austerity
    Yesterday, the Reserve Bank confirmed there will be no free card for the economy to get out of jail during the current term of the Government. Regardless of what the Budget next week says, we are in for three years of austerity. Over those three years, we will have to ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago
  • An admirable U-turn
    It doesn’t inspire confidence when politicians change their minds.  But you must give credit when a bad idea is dropped. Last year, we reported on the determination of British PM Rishi Sunak to lead the world in regulating the dangers of Artificial Intelligence. Perhaps he changed his mind after meeting ...
    Point of OrderBy xtrdnry
    6 days ago
  • Climate Adam: Can we really suck up Carbon Dioxide?
    This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). Is carbon dioxide removal - aka "negative emissions" - going to save us from climate change? Or is it just a ...
    6 days ago
  • Public funding for private operators in mental health and housing – and a Bill to erase a bit of t...
    Headed for the legislative wastepaper basket…    Buzz from the Beehive It looks like this government is just as ready as its predecessor to dip into the public funds it is managing to dispense millions of dollars to finance – and favour – the parties it fancies. Or ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • Why has Einstein Medalist Roy Kerr never been Knighted?
    Rob MacCulloch writes – National and Labour and ACT have at various times waxed on about their “vision” of NZ as a high value-added world tech center What subject is tech based upon? Mathematics. A Chicago mathematician just told me that whereas last decade ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Contestable advice
    Eric Crampton writes –  Danyl McLauchlan over at The Listener on the recent shift toward more contestability in public policy advice in education: Education Minister Erica Stanford, one of National’s highest-ranked MPs, is trying to circumvent the establishment, taking advice from a smaller pool of experts – ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • How did it get so bad?
    Ele Ludemann writes – That Kāinga Ora is a mess is no surprise, but the size of the mess is. There have been many reports of unruly tenants given licence to terrorise neighbours, properties bought and left vacant, and the state agency paying above market rates in competition ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • How serious is an MP’s failure to declare $178k in donations?
    Bryce Edwards writes –  It’s being explained as an “inadvertent error”. However, National MP David MacLeod’s excuse for failing to disclose $178,000 in donations for his election campaign last year is not necessarily enough to prevent some serious consequences. A Police investigation is now likely, and the result ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the privatising of state housing provision, by stealth
    The scathing “independent” review of Kāinga Ora barely hit the table before the coalition government had acted on it. The entire Kāinga Ora board will be replaced, and a new chair (Simon Moutter) has been announced. Hmm. No aspersions on Bill English, but the public would have had more confidence ...
    6 days ago

  • Government to consult on regulation of shooting clubs and ranges
      The Government is consulting New Zealanders on a package of proposals for simple and effective regulation of shooting clubs and ranges, Associate Minister of Justice, Nicole McKee announced today.   “Clubs and ranges are not only important for people learning to operate firearms safely, to practice, and to compete, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 hours ago
  • Successful New Caledonia repatriation winds up, need for dialogue remains
    Over 300 people have been successfully flown out of New Caledonia in a joint Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) and New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) operation.   As of today, seven New Zealand government aircraft flights to Nouméa have assisted around 225 New Zealanders and 145 foreign nationals ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 hours ago
  • Minister to Singapore for defence, technology talks
    Defence and Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins departs for Singapore tomorrow for defence and technology summits and meetings. First up is the Asia Tech X Singapore Summit, followed by the Five Power Defence Arrangements Defence Ministers Meeting and wrapping up with the Shangri-La Dialogue for Defence Ministers from ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Major investment in teacher supply through Budget 24
    Over the next four years, Budget 24 will support the training and recruitment of 1,500 teachers into the workforce, Education Minister Erica Stanford announced today. “To raise achievement and develop a world leading education system we’re investing nearly $53 million over four years to attract, train and retain our valued ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Joint statement on the New Zealand – Cook Islands Joint Ministerial Forum – 2024
    1.  New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Rt Hon Winston Peters; Minister of Health and Minister for Pacific Peoples Hon Dr Shane Reti; and Minister for Climate Change Hon Simon Watts hosted Cook Islands Minister of Foreign Affairs and Immigration Hon Tingika Elikana and Minister of Health Hon Vainetutai Rose Toki-Brown on 24 May ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Middle East, Africa deployments extended
    The Government has approved two-year extensions for four New Zealand Defence Force deployments to the Middle East and Africa, Defence Minister Judith Collins and Foreign Minister Winston Peters announced today. “These deployments are long-standing New Zealand commitments, which reflect our ongoing interest in promoting peace and stability, and making active ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Climate Change Commission Chair to retire
    The Climate Change Commission Chair, Dr Rod Carr, has confirmed his plans to retire at the end of his term later this year, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “Prior to the election, Dr Carr advised me he would be retiring when his term concluded. Dr Rod Carr has led ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Inaugural Board of Integrity Sport & Recreation Commission announced
    Nine highly respected experts have been appointed to the inaugural board of the new Integrity Sport and Recreation Commission, Sport & Recreation Minister Chris Bishop says. “The Integrity Sport and Recreation Commission is a new independent Crown entity which was established under the Integrity Sport and Recreation Act last year, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • A balanced Foreign Affairs budget
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters confirmed today that Vote Foreign Affairs in Budget 2024 will balance two crucial priorities of the Coalition Government.    While Budget 2024 reflects the constrained fiscal environment, the Government also recognises the critical role MFAT plays in keeping New Zealanders safe and prosperous.    “Consistent with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New social housing places to support families into homes
    New social housing funding in Budget 2024 will ensure the Government can continue supporting more families into warm, dry homes from July 2025, Housing Ministers Chris Bishop and Tama Potaka say. “Earlier this week I was proud to announce that Budget 2024 allocates $140 million to fund 1,500 new social ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New Zealand’s minerals future
    Introduction Today, we are sharing a red-letter occasion. A Blackball event on hallowed ground. Today  we underscore the importance of our mineral estate. A reminder that our natural resource sector has much to offer.  Such a contribution will not come to pass without investment.  However, more than money is needed. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government sets out vision for minerals future
    Increasing national and regional prosperity, providing the minerals needed for new technology and the clean energy transition, and doubling the value of minerals exports are the bold aims of the Government’s vision for the minerals sector. Resources Minister Shane Jones today launched a draft strategy for the minerals sector in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government progresses Māori wards legislation
    The coalition Government’s legislation to restore the rights of communities to determine whether to introduce Māori wards has passed its first reading in Parliament, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown says. “Divisive changes introduced by the previous government denied local communities the ability to determine whether to establish Māori wards.” The ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • First RMA amendment Bill introduced to Parliament
    The coalition Government has today introduced legislation to slash the tangle of red and green tape throttling some of New Zealand’s key sectors, including farming, mining and other primary industries. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop says the Government is committed to  unlocking development and investment while ensuring the environment is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government welcomes EPA decision
    The decision by Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) to approve the continued use of hydrogen cyanamide, known as Hi-Cane, has been welcomed by Environment Minister Penny Simmonds and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay.  “The EPA decision introduces appropriate environmental safeguards which will allow kiwifruit and other growers to use Hi-Cane responsibly,” Ms ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Speech to Employers and Manufacturers Association: Relief for today, hope for tomorrow
    Kia ora, Ngā mihi nui ki a koutou kātoa Tāmaki Herenga Waka, Tāmaki Herenga tangata Ngā mihi ki ngā mana whenua o tēnei rohe Ngāti Whātua ō Ōrākei me nga iwi kātoa kua tae mai. Mauriora. Greetings everyone. Thank you to the EMA for hosting this event. Let me acknowledge ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government invests in 1,500 more social homes
    The coalition Government is investing in social housing for New Zealanders who are most in need of a warm dry home, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. Budget 2024 will allocate $140 million in new funding for 1,500 new social housing places to be provided by Community Housing Providers (CHPs), not ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • $24 million boost for Gumboot Friday
    Thousands more young New Zealanders will have better access to mental health services as the Government delivers on its commitment to fund the Gumboot Friday initiative, says Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters and Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey.  “Budget 2024 will provide $24 million over four years to contract the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Residential Tenancies Amendment Bill passes first reading
    The Coalition Government’s Residential Tenancies Amendment Bill, which will improve tenancy laws and help increase the supply of rental properties, has passed its first reading in Parliament says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “The Bill proposes much-needed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act 1986 that will remove barriers to increasing private ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Montecassino Commemorative Address, Cassino War Cemetery
    Standing here in Cassino War Cemetery, among the graves looking up at the beautiful Abbey of Montecassino, it is hard to imagine the utter devastation left behind by the battles which ended here in May 1944. Hundreds of thousands of shells and bombs of every description left nothing but piled ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • First Reading – Repeal of Section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989
    I present a legislative statement on the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill Mr. Speaker, I move that the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill be now read a first time. I nominate the Social Services and Community Committee to consider the Bill. Thank you, Mr. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • First reading of 7AA’s repeal: progress for children
    The Bill to repeal Section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act has had its first reading in Parliament today. The Bill reaffirms the Coalition Government’s commitment to the care and safety of children in care, says Minister for Children Karen Chhour.  “When I became the Minister for Children, I made ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • China Business Summit 2024
    Kia ora koutou, good morning, and zao shang hao. Thank you Fran for the opportunity to speak at the 2024 China Business Summit – it’s great to be here today. I’d also like to acknowledge: Simon Bridges - CEO of the Auckland Chamber of Commerce. His Excellency Ambassador - Wang ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Assisted depatures from New Caledonia
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed a New Zealand Government plane will head to New Caledonia in the next hour in the first in a series of proposed flights to begin bringing New Zealanders home.    “New Zealanders in New Caledonia have faced a challenging few days - and bringing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Assisted departures from New Caledonia
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed a New Zealand Government plane will head to New Caledonia in the next hour in the first in a series of proposed flights to begin bringing New Zealanders home.  “New Zealanders in New Caledonia have faced a challenging few days - and bringing them ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government to rollout roadside drug testing
    The Coalition Government will introduce legislation this year that will enable roadside drug testing as part of our commitment to improve road safety and restore law and order, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “Alcohol and drugs are the number one contributing factor in fatal road crashes in New Zealand. In ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Minister responds to review of Kāinga Ora
    The Government has announced a series of immediate actions in response to the independent review of Kāinga Ora – Homes and Communities, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “Kāinga Ora is a large and important Crown entity, with assets of $45 billion and over $2.5 billion of expenditure each year. It ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Pseudoephedrine back on shelves
    Associate Health Minister David Seymour is pleased that Pseudoephedrine can now be purchased by the general public to protect them from winter illness, after the coalition government worked swiftly to change the law and oversaw a fast approval process by Medsafe. “Pharmacies are now putting the medicines back on their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand-China Business Summit
    Tēnā koutou katoa. Da jia hao.  Good morning everyone.   Prime Minister Luxon, your excellency, a great friend of New Zealand and my friend Ambassador Wang, Mayor of what he tells me is the best city in New Zealand, Wayne Brown, the highly respected Fran O’Sullivan, Champion of the Auckland business ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New measures to protect powerlines from trees
    Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced that the Government will make it easier for lines firms to take action to remove vegetation from obstructing local powerlines. The change will ensure greater security of electricity supply in local communities, particularly during severe weather events.  “Trees or parts of trees falling on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Wairarapa Moana ki Pouakani win top Māori dairy farming award
    Wairarapa Moana ki Pouakani were the top winners at this year’s Ahuwhenua Trophy awards recognising the best in Māori dairy farming. Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka announced the winners and congratulated runners-up, Whakatōhea Māori Trust Board, at an awards celebration also attended by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Finance Minister ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • DJ Fred Again – Assurance report received
    "On the 27th of March, I sought assurances from the Chief Executive, Department of Internal Affairs, that the Department’s correct processes and policies had been followed in regards to a passport application which received media attention,” says Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden.  “I raised my concerns after being ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • District Court Judges appointed
    Attorney-General Judith Collins has announced the appointment of three new District Court Judges, to replace Judges who have recently retired. Peter James Davey of Auckland has been appointed a District Court Judge with a jury jurisdiction to be based at Whangarei. Mr Davey initially started work as a law clerk/solicitor with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Unions should put learning ahead of ideology
    Associate Education Minister David Seymour is calling on the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) to put ideology to the side and focus on students’ learning, in reaction to the union holding paid teacher meetings across New Zealand about charter schools.     “The PPTA is disrupting schools up and down the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Craig Stobo appointed as chair of FMA
    Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly today announced the appointment of Craig Stobo as the new chair of the Financial Markets Authority (FMA). Mr Stobo takes over from Mark Todd, whose term expired at the end of April. Mr Stobo’s appointment is for a five-year term. “The FMA plays ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Budget 2024 invests in lifeguards and coastguard
    Surf Life Saving New Zealand and Coastguard New Zealand will continue to be able to keep people safe in, on, and around the water following a funding boost of $63.644 million over four years, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Associate Transport Minister Matt Doocey say. “Heading to the beach for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand and Tuvalu reaffirm close relationship
    New Zealand and Tuvalu have reaffirmed their close relationship, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says.  “New Zealand is committed to working with Tuvalu on a shared vision of resilience, prosperity and security, in close concert with Australia,” says Mr Peters, who last visited Tuvalu in 2019.  “It is my pleasure ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand calls for calm, constructive dialogue in New Caledonia
    New Zealand is gravely concerned about the situation in New Caledonia, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.  “The escalating situation and violent protests in Nouméa are of serious concern across the Pacific Islands region,” Mr Peters says.  “The immediate priority must be for all sides to take steps to de-escalate the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand welcomes Samoa Head of State
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon met today with Samoa’s O le Ao o le Malo, Afioga Tuimalealiifano Vaaletoa Sualauvi II, who is making a State Visit to New Zealand. “His Highness and I reflected on our two countries’ extensive community links, with Samoan–New Zealanders contributing to all areas of our national ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Island Direct eligible for SuperGold Card funding
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has announced that he has approved Waiheke Island ferry operator Island Direct to be eligible for SuperGold Card funding, paving the way for a commercial agreement to bring the operator into the scheme. “Island Direct started operating in November 2023, offering an additional option for people ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

Page generated in The Standard by Wordpress at 2024-05-28T04:48:27+00:00