David Seymour should stick to twerking

Written By: - Date published: 12:35 pm, February 4th, 2022 - 306 comments
Categories: act, Christopher Luxon, covid-19, jacinda ardern, Maori Issues, national, treaty settlements - Tags:

We live in strange times.

At the Herald Matthew Hooton, National’s chief propagandist, shows his ability to bend reality by claiming that Jacinda Ardern is polarising and the country is divided.  He even has the temerity to talk about how “Ardern’s all-important net approval rating [is] below Christopher Luxon’s”.  Political statisticians throughout the world will be scratching their heads.  To convert a statistically ridiculous comparison into an “all important” one requires a great deal of nerve.

National is consolidating their support now they have a leader that is not universally despised and a caucus that has stopped leaking.  Their wall of sound technique where they seek to dominate all media with shriller and shriller claims is working although as shown by the last reputable poll their 4% gain was mostly at the expense of Act.

Is the country divided?  There are two groups, one insisting on their right to come and go through the border with complete indifference to the public health implications, and another group who have refused to be vaccinated for various reasons.  Both groups have dominated the media and created a sense of unease.  But with a vaccination rate of 93% it would appear that the vast majority of Kiwis are still supportive of the Government’s actions.

The rhetoric is getting stupid.  Chris Luxon’s claim that Ardern should resign if she changes the announced dates of reopening the country is US Republican Party level stupidity.  We are in the middle of a global pandemic.  Circumstances should dictate decisions, not internal focus group results.  If the public health system gets under extreme pressure than any leader who is not a psychopath would act.  Leadership requires decision making, not sticking to a preconceived position.

National’s resurgence is putting Act into an awkward position and they are being denied all important media coverage.  David Seymour has responded by making some pretty outlandish claims in his state of the nation speech delivered yesterday.

He attacked the Government over its Delta and Omicron response.  The body count would beg to differ.  New Zealand has had one death per hundred thousand people, the Australian figure now is 15.5, the United Kingdom figure is 235 and the United States figure is 269.  His claim that MIQ does not work really needs to be considered against this background.

He brought out the right wing bogeyman of debt, despite the fact that the country’s debts are well under control and in far better shape than for comparable nations.  He also blamed the Government for high inflation, completely ignoring the fact that inflation is currently a world wide phenomenon.  He predictably attacked the size of the public service and the number of public servants currently employed.

Seymour then chose to get the dog whistle out and give it a big blast.  He said this:

Democracy means one person, one vote. It’s the basis of New Zealand’s one globally significant political achievement, realising the idea that every adult New Zealander should have the vote.

The opposite of that principle is being rolled out in healthcare, with two systems. It is being rolled out in infrastructure, with co-governance of Three Waters. It is being put into resource management law. The three bills replacing the Resource Management Act will be filled with co-governance provisions. The history curriculum is being designed to tell the next generation that everything in New Zealand is about colonisation and most of the students are guilty before they open their textbook.

People came from England to escape class. From India to escape caste. From China to escape the one-party state where party members get special rights. From South Africa to escape apartheid. If you were to sum up New Zealand’s history, it is people dreaming of an equal chance.

He concludes with this statement:

Nobody is born special in New Zealand. There cannot be two types of people, Tangata Whenua, here by right, and Tangata Tiriti, here by the grace of the Treaty. All people born in this country, and who immigrate here, have a right to one five millionth of the opportunity it has to offer.

He advocates for the removal of all references to the treaty and, despite claims of respect for our cultural diversity, a one size fits all system.

The claim that people from South Africa came to New Zealand to escape Apartheid needs to be qualified.  My impression is that more than a few left South Africa after the end of Apartheid for different reasons.

His claim that we should forget the Treaty is a valid one to take only if you think that treaties should not be respected and the rights created by the treaty should be ignored and excluded by fiat.  Historical land ownings and property rights are fine and should be enforced as long as you are not black.  And he does not address all forms of inequality, only the perceived inequality that Tangata Whenua apparently enjoy.  Any analysis of statistics around health or poverty would confirm that Seymour should have stuck to twerking.

I suspect that we are going to see a lot more of this sort of populist game playing from Act.

306 comments on “David Seymour should stick to twerking ”

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  1. North 1
    4 February 2022 at 12:58 pm

    Funny thing……Ardern should resign if planned course is altered as a result of intervening external factors ? I don't recall Grabaseat unconditionally promising Air NZ departures/arrivals as per schedule; I don't recall promises of resignation following intervening external circumstances beyond his or Air NZ's is control.

    Pettifogger.

  2. dv 2
    4 February 2022 at 1:16 pm

    Martyn Bradburn give a good summary of David Seymour and Act

    https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2022/02/04/how-far-right-is-act-david-seymour-demands-race-war-thats-how-far-right/

    • Cut and freeze the Minimum wage
    • Interest back on all student loans
    • No Kiwsaver subsidy
    • Cancel winter energy payment
    • Dump all climate crisis legislation
    • no more best start payments for families with new borns
    • cut welfare payments
    • no tax credits for research and development
    • cuts to working for families
    • $7b a year cut in public services
    • Abolish Maori seats
    • Abolish Human Rights Commission
    • Gosman 2.1
      4 February 2022 at 2:53 pm

      Most of those are not current ACT party policies.

      • dv 2.1.1
        4 February 2022 at 3:00 pm

        So what are not policies?

      • Robert Guyton 2.1.2
        4 February 2022 at 3:14 pm

        Which ones are not "current ACT policies", Gosman?

        And which are "past ACT policies"?

        • Blazer 2.1.2.1
          4 February 2022 at 4:26 pm

          Seymour sidesteps with….'active' policies.

          • ghostwhowalksnz 2.1.2.1.1
            5 February 2022 at 8:34 pm

            Key and English refined the 'active policies' approach right after the 2013 election when they announced the Selling state houses policies after election day

            It was said they 'didnt have time' during campaign , so afterwards was just as good.

      • georgecom 2.1.3
        4 February 2022 at 6:42 pm

        not the published ones no, those are the keep in the locked top draw policies which are 'found' when they are back in government

  3. Sanctuary 3
    4 February 2022 at 1:17 pm

    Seymour has allowed a bit of poll success to go his head. He is a dangerously simplistic and unbalanced politician who is also a bit of press gallery darling.

    • tc 3.1
      4 February 2022 at 1:50 pm

      He's also the gift that keeps giving in many ways with his perennial dog whistling.

      • Enough is Enough 3.1.1
        4 February 2022 at 3:18 pm

        Who may I ask is he giving that gift to.

        His realtively high poll ratings are a result of his far right racism. That is dangerous and certainly not a gift.

  4. DukeEll 4
    4 February 2022 at 1:23 pm

    cherry picking issues to reply too in the overall speech misses the issues toots and rimmer were highlighting. that the country is and will continue to go backwards economically, which is where elections are fought, at the expense of identity issues and the politics that surround them.

    Unemployment may be low, but whats the point in having a job if you can't afford anything. and when you get a wage increase it's cancelled out?

    If this government put half the effort into economic issues as they did grandstanding about moral achievements, the working class in this country would be well on the way to being the wealthiest blue collar sector in the world. white collar shiny bum bureaucrats in wellington don't understand blue collar daily issues and pathways through them.

    Fancy the MoE behaving in this manner while schools are closing and we are slipping in international numeracy and literacy standards

    When Labour took office, the ministry employed 2632 full-time equivalents but that had risen to 3900. Ministry staff earned an average of $93,900, which is more than teachers at the top of their pay scale were paid.

    • McFlock 4.1
      4 February 2022 at 1:37 pm

      Nice position to be in to be able to bitch about the economy and "identity politics", rather than thousands of dead NZers.

      And you know the working class ones would be disproportionately represented in that toll – the white collars can work from home, but the lattes they order in will still be made at a workplace.

      • DukeEll 4.1.1
        4 February 2022 at 1:46 pm

        so enslaving the whole blue collar population in poverty to "save" them is the excuse now? Is covid to blame for slipping literacy and numeracy standards while the MoE lavishes money on new bodies for no purpose?

        • McFlock 4.1.1.1
          4 February 2022 at 3:31 pm

          "enslaving"? Methinks you have no idea what slavery is.

          while the MoE lavishes money on new bodies for no purpose

          evidence for "new bodies" (as opposed to previously "outsourced" staff from the private sector) and "no purpose" please. The latter makes it sound like they're twiddling their thumbs on a worksite just to provide a front to show their parole officer.

          • DukeEll 4.1.1.1.1
            4 February 2022 at 4:00 pm

            Fancy the MoE lavishing money on new bodies while our educational standards continue to slip on the same international scale we measure our covid response on?

            Modern slavery is wages failing to keep up with the rise in prices in previously affordable commodities, which is both a private and public inflicted ill through lack of legislation or government incurred inflation or taxes. It traps people in a cycle of working to live and removes from them the modern enjoyment of opportunities of new beginnings. a better description might be modern serfdom.

            • McFlock 4.1.1.1.1.1
              4 February 2022 at 4:07 pm

              Yeah, nah.

              Still, nice that you're parroting Marx rather than the Masque of the Red Death.

              • DukeEll …
                4 February 2022 at 4:09 pm

                hilarious that you are pointing to a tragedy rather than addressing a statistic. stalinesque even

                • McFlock …
                  4 February 2022 at 4:19 pm

                  You made a bleat about the number of civil servants.

                  I pointed out that you could easily have been weeping over another statistic and genuine tragedy, had the government not stepped up to the plate when covid reared.

                  I have asked for the context of your statistic. You have given nothing. Not sure you're even given sources for your statistics, let alone actual context.

                  Bleat all you want about wage slavery – regular slavery still exists. Millions of dead from covid overseas. But sure, go change your vote because MoE has boosted its staff numbers. 🙄

                  • DukeEll …
                    4 February 2022 at 4:35 pm

                    David Seymour made a fact based speech of which this part was but a paragraph. Your cried and cried and played the messenger as it wasnt' part of the correct wellington narrative about the good more staff at ministries can do.

                    https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/act-targets-ministry-education-it-focuses-departmental-spending

                    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/127674468/acts-david-seymour-mocks-red-queen-jacinda-ardern-in-stateofnation-speech

                    https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2202/S00031/act-state-of-the-nation-speech-david-seymour.htm

                    You haven't asked for anything. you've made inane, asinine and quisling comments on my comments. If you'd like something, do ask.

                    The context of may statistics and opinion is this,

                    1) the only other country that celebrates being locked right out from outsiders is North Korea.

                    2) We can be proud of some of the achievements of keeping out covid, but others need examination.

                    If you can't see that only adhering to 1) and not allowing for 2) doesn't make you baliff working for our miserable overlords, i doff my cap to you sir to avoid further trouble with our wise masters and overlords.

                    • McFlock …
                      4 February 2022 at 4:44 pm

                      1: lololololol north korea? Hyperbole much?

                      2: most of the "others" that actoids moan about were essential to saving lives.

                      ACT, from its very founders, hated government spending especially when that spending actually helped the working class. You know, things like saving lives.

                    • DukeEll …
                      4 February 2022 at 5:10 pm

                      1) Well, it's the most extreme example but hyperbole would also be an exaggeration.

                      2) i'm not ok with educational standards slipping, and fuck you if you are to make a political point.

                    • McFlock …
                      4 February 2022 at 5:27 pm

                      You seem to be ok with taking david seymour's word for things, even when he's making a political point.

                      And frankly, even if this government actually fucked everything up except saving lives, that's a better legacy than any tory government would have had in this situation.

                    • DukeEll []
                      4 February 2022 at 6:00 pm

                      I’m is David lying about there being 50% more MoE staff than there were in 2017?

                      “even if this government actually fucked everything up except saving lives, that's a better legacy than any tory government would have had in this situation.”

                      hyperbole much ?!

                    • McFlock …
                      4 February 2022 at 6:14 pm

                      [I’m] is David lying about there being 50% more MoE staff than there were in 2017?

                      No idea. But, again, even if the stat is correct, it is new work? Is it work that was previously contracted out? I don't trust him to tell the whole truth, even if he happens to tell the truth. I expect him to lie by omission.

                      “even if this government actually fucked everything up except saving lives, that's a better legacy than any tory government would have had in this situation.”

                      hyperbole much ?!

                      Nope. Given all their statements about miq, lockdowns, etc, I believe that under any of the various national party leaders in the last 4 years the covid mortality rate would have been more similar to the UK covid death rate (~1,600/million) than to our current level (~10/million), and they would have fucked everything else up.

                  • Tony Veitch (not etc.) …
                    5 February 2022 at 10:19 am

                    But sure, go change your vote because MoE has boosted its staff numbers.

                    Bugger me, McFlock, you shouldn't be allowed to show how superficial and simplistic right whingers' thinking is!

            • Patricia Bremner 4.1.1.1.1.2
              4 February 2022 at 4:28 pm

              You do realise those measures captured children educated during the back to basics era of National?

              • DukeEll …
                4 February 2022 at 4:36 pm

                You do realise it's been 4 years since national had control of the treasury, and in that time workers at the MoE have increased 50%, yet educational attainment has slipped even further?

                • McFlock …
                  4 February 2022 at 4:45 pm

                  ever think there might be a lag between hiring workers to stop a rot and the rot actually being stopped?

                  • DukeEll …
                    4 February 2022 at 5:09 pm

                    If your lag is four years and counting and you're happy with it, the NZ MoE has a job for you

                    • McFlock …
                      4 February 2022 at 5:22 pm

                      But probably fewer outsourcing contracts to bid on, so the opportunities might even out in the end.

                    • DukeEll …
                      4 February 2022 at 5:23 pm

                      when New Zealand's children are subordinate to those who can read and write? i do tip my hat to you sir for your cunning long term plan

                    • McFlock …
                      4 February 2022 at 5:32 pm

                      Not my plan yet – I still have to apply for the job, remember?

                • The Unliving …
                  4 February 2022 at 5:15 pm

                  Is it your expectation that the only driver of educational achievement is the number of workers employed by the MoE? Aside from being a gross oversimplification, not to mention mistaking correlation for causality, it ignores the widely-cited effect of things like poverty and material deprivation on children's education.

                  • DukeEll …
                    4 February 2022 at 5:17 pm

                    If you don't think a 50% increase in the number of workers at department should result in positive outcomes for the children it is is responsible for, I honestly feel sorry for you.

                    • The Unliving …
                      4 February 2022 at 5:44 pm

                      Where did I say that? I was merely pointing out that there are other, more impactful things that will affect a child's education.

                      Can you provide an authoritative citation for the 50% increase?

                    • DukeEll []
                      4 February 2022 at 6:02 pm

                      Yep,

                    • pat …
                      4 February 2022 at 5:51 pm

                      Couple of questions

                      When did the increase occur?

                      How long does a change in system take to show effect?

                      Its a bloody stupid metric…we can make all the most beneficial decisions and the results will not be evident for decades…that is the political problem….in both directions…and people are anything but patient.

                    • mikesh …
                      5 February 2022 at 9:48 am

                      It rather depends on what they were hired to do. I suspect that the National Party, when in office, and in the interests of saving money so that the wealthy could have tax cuts, failed to add to MoE staff when it was necessary to do so. The extra 50% that you refer to is probably just the Labour playing "catchup".

                    • mikesh …
                      5 February 2022 at 10:08 am

                      Wasn't there some IT botch up within the MoE during the time of the Key regime, and which resulted in lots of teachers not getting paid? Perhaps that is the reason for the current increase in staff numbers.

                • Patricia Bremner …
                  4 February 2022 at 6:58 pm

                  Chn start at 5, spend up to 13 years in the system, so the 4th Form would be 14 years of age in 2019 when the testing was done.

                  Extra staff is mainly covid, but also Health IRD and Winz. We also have more ethnic groups to support in many Government services. Lies and statistics .

      • Mr Nobody 4.1.2
        4 February 2022 at 2:35 pm

        The speculation that there would have been thousands of dead New Zealanders is just that speculation. Even the Covid Minister Chris Hipkins acknowledged this morning that even he is sceptical of the Covid Models (https://bityl.co/AmjE), while there may have been thousand there equally may have been zero if different decisions had been made.

        But instead of focussing on "maybe's" or "could have been's" we can and should look at the facts. And as ACT and DukeEll have pointed out since "Labour took office, the ministry employed 2632 full-time equivalents but that had risen to 3900. Ministry staff earned an average of $93,900, which is more than teachers at the top of their pay scale were paid."

        Let alone all the other Facts which indicate NZ is moving backwards and not forwards.

        • Robert Guyton 4.1.2.1
          4 February 2022 at 2:49 pm

          "The speculation that there would have been thousands of dead New Zealanders is just that speculation."

          Elegant!

          Stupid!

        • Robert Guyton 4.1.2.2
          4 February 2022 at 2:54 pm

          "Let alone all the other Facts which indicate.."

          "Facts (upper case "F")

          Mr Nobody (upper case "M" & "N").

          • Mr Nobody 4.1.2.2.1
            4 February 2022 at 3:06 pm

            If you consider name-calling and grammar as a rebuttal or adding to the discussion then don't be surprised when there is a change of government at the next election and this site becomes an echo chamber of like minds/opinion.

          • DukeEll 4.1.2.2.2
            4 February 2022 at 3:24 pm

            Robert Guyton, like David Seymour, may talk facts. Unlike Seymour, his facts are apple based and only relative to those people tumescent over ancient flora. or perhaps extremely similar to rimmer

        • McFlock 4.1.2.3
          4 February 2022 at 3:28 pm

          And yet we got roughly 0.0004% as predicted if we did lockdowns, while Sweden etc were on 0.1–0.02% while still implementing some controls (and with people spontaneously masking and isolating regardless of controls), and the literal "business as usual" projection was 1-2%.

          So maybe the omicron curve is a bit more flat than projected, but they ain't garbage. We're in for trouble.

          As for directly-employed public servants, how many of them are doing jobs that either weren't being done or had been contracted out?

        • Gypsy 4.1.2.4
          4 February 2022 at 5:46 pm

          27 January 2022

          "Covid-19: Modelling says NZ could face 50,000 infections per day by Waitangi"

          I'm spending the weekend in the Wairarapa. That number equates to the entire population of this area, infected with covid. Are we actually paying these f&*^'ers?

          • The Unliving 4.1.2.4.1
            4 February 2022 at 6:15 pm

            This was covered by The Spinoff, but a couple of points:

            • They reported 50,000 infections by Waitangi day, not cases.
            • Their estimated number of cases on Waitangi day is 332. That one sounds closer.
            • The source of this information is from US-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) So no, I do not think we are paying them anything.
            • Gypsy 4.1.2.4.1.1
              4 February 2022 at 6:49 pm
              • Yes the number of infections is impossible to ascertain, even after the event. Which is of course convenient for the modellers.
              • There have been 1298 cases in the past 21 days. That's 62 per day, so the projection is out by a factor of 5x.
              • My question stands – have we paid for this?
              • McFlock …
                4 February 2022 at 7:03 pm

                There have been 1298 cases in the past 21 days. That's 62 per day, so the projection is out by a factor of 5x.

                Did you just say they're projection for an individual day is off because it's bigger than the 20 day average, in the breakout phase of an infectious disease?

                • McFlock …
                  4 February 2022 at 8:48 pm

                  ^"their projection".

                  Awfully embarrassing, and I can't even blame it on increased MoE staff numbers blush

                  • Shanreagh …
                    5 February 2022 at 1:51 am

                    Rather than the straight numbers it will have been the high salaries going to your/you're head.wink

                • pat …
                  4 February 2022 at 8:49 pm

                  Id make the observation we had 1298 positive test results in the past 21 days…that is a different result than 1298 cases, especially with a measured > 16% asymptomatic rate….what the actual rate is we do not know, but we can assume it is higher.

                • Gypsy …
                  5 February 2022 at 12:19 pm

                  "Did you just say they're projection for an individual day is off because it's bigger than the 20 day average, in the breakout phase of an infectious disease?"
                  No. I used a daily average to illustrate that claiming a single daily count as being some kind of benchmark for accuracy is, well, silly.

              • The Unliving …
                4 February 2022 at 8:44 pm

                I echo McFlock's question regarding the 20 day average.

                We had 209 cases today. A prediction of 332 on Waitangi Day seems reasonable enough.

                As I stated in my response, IHME is US-based – I doubt they are seeing any money from us.

              • Shanreagh …
                5 February 2022 at 11:08 am

                As I understand that is not how projections work…..they don't find an average and work it forwards and backwards. They work with the R value, the value that shows how many infections from one person are likely. The higher the R value the higher the number of infections on following days. It is not a linear progression but one more akin to a Fibonacci theory where the figure doubles and doubles by adding onto the figure before.

                Not sure if they then factor in a figure, or even if they can, that will work out possible infections in a vaccinated population of 90% or 94 % etc.

                So to my mind the numbers of infections now will translate OK into the number they are expecting tomorrow.

                Modelling is the most wonderful tool. You can factor in all sorts of figures marking interventions to see what effect they might have. So in a population with an virus spreading at 1.8 we can put in figures that will show what happens if say we quarantined all the people with infections so they could not move in the community,

                Modelling is wonderful to work with in the health sector especially……with good information on past trends and an intensive knowledge of the populations served by the health services it is possible to have a pretty good idea say how many gall bladder ops will be needed etc,

                So don't dismiss it value too quickly.

                • Gypsy …
                  5 February 2022 at 12:27 pm

                  Then you apply real world sanity. Like real world infection rates, and population mortality rates. And you realise that predictions of 7,000 dead in a year even in a highly vaccinated population are simply unbelievable.

                  • Poission …
                    5 February 2022 at 12:52 pm

                    You do understand that the models are probabilistic,and can only be probabilistic ( a point that can be mathematically proven)

                    • Gypsy …
                      5 February 2022 at 1:00 pm

                      The current global population mortality rate of all covid variants is 0.073%. That includes the period before any vaccines were available, and of course it includes all of the third world countries with third world health systems and living conditions. Apply that to NZ's population and you get 3,500 deaths in over 2 years, not 7,000 in one year.

                    • Shanreagh …
                      5 February 2022 at 1:08 pm

                      No they do not seem to understand about modelling and sadly have a problem about admitting it or letting it go. Also thinks we are affected by some sort of fear.

                  • Shanreagh …
                    5 February 2022 at 1:06 pm

                    Stop digging your hole…it will get so big the edges will crumble and you will fall in.

                    You seem not to understand what modelling is all about. We cannot understand everything so best not to argue about it further.

                    • Gypsy …
                      5 February 2022 at 1:13 pm

                      "they do not seem to understand about modelling "

                      The comment you were replying to was not about modelling, but about applying a sanity test to the results of the modelling. That's what thinking people do to separate the hyperbole from the reality.

      • Gypsy 4.1.3
        4 February 2022 at 5:38 pm

        Thousands of dead NZers! Wow, hyperbole rules ok.

        • McFlock 4.1.3.1
          4 February 2022 at 5:52 pm

          Not sure how pointing to a projection of a possible future is relevant to a statement about how, in the present, an individual is able to complain about one aspect of the past rather than being in a position to complain about something (much worse) that could have happened in the past, but did not.

          Being unfamiliar with tense in the English language as you are, perchance did you finish your education after the MoE hired those extra staff that so upset Seymour?

          • Gypsy 4.1.3.1.1
            4 February 2022 at 6:05 pm

            The projection is relevant because it shows how modellers and other various doom sayers have been getting this wrong from the outset.

            • McFlock 4.1.3.1.1.1
              4 February 2022 at 6:21 pm

              A projection from 27 January 2022 is not "from the outset".

              The projection from 25 march 2020, "the outset", predicted 20-30 dead after 400 days if we adopted certain restrictions immediately. We adopted those restrictions, and at 400 days were at 30 dead. Not too shabby.

              And if we hadn't adopted those restrictions, like the plan b crowd and various national party leaders wanted, that accurate projection suggests we'd have had thousands of dead. Which (just to complete the thread for you), would be something more significant to cry about than "MoE employs a lot of people".

            • Shanreagh 4.1.3.1.1.2
              5 February 2022 at 11:12 am

              Really……you are saying you don't understand how modelling works and as you don't understand it therefore must be wrong.

              I don't know the ins and outs of calculating the speed of light and the distance the stars and planets are away from us but I am not saying they are wrong. I'm saying I don't understand it.

              • Gypsy …
                5 February 2022 at 12:25 pm

                I understand how modelling works. I also understand that claims of the demise of many thousands of NZ'ers is greatly exaggerated.

                • Shanreagh …
                  5 February 2022 at 1:10 pm

                  I'm sure you do. You just like coming on here and making wild statements about them so you can laugh at us when we don't realise you are fooling.

                • Shanreagh …
                  5 February 2022 at 1:18 pm

                  By that very statement you competently show that you in fact know nothing about health sector modelling, own goal in other words.

                  • Gypsy …
                    5 February 2022 at 1:35 pm

                    Any modelling is predictive, that is the nature of it. Are you saying there is a problem with testing the accuracy of modelling against actual outcomes?

    • ghostwhowalksnz 4.2
      5 February 2022 at 8:42 pm

      The 'rise' is mostly due to national government public sector staff ceilings ( another broken promise at the time) meaning both higher paid and lower paid were hidden as contractors instead.

      Higher paid were individual contractors while low paid were paid through employment agencies

  5. pat 5
    4 February 2022 at 1:30 pm

    Newsflash!

    Politician plays politics!

    • Blade 5.1
      4 February 2022 at 2:46 pm

      ''The rhetoric is getting stupid. Chris Luxon’s claim that Ardern should resign if she changes the announced dates of reopening the country is US Republican Party level stupidity. We are in the middle of a global pandemic.''

      I would go one better and call for an early election should economic factors start REALLY hurting Kiwis. Should Labours polling start dropping into the thirties what better pretext than Covid to give yourself a chance at a third term in government?

      ''In the middle of a pandemic'':

      1- The Government is hellbent on pushing on with Three Waters.

      2- The government wants to go ahead with DHB restructuring.

      3- The government is going ahead with Auckland's Light Rail.

      As for Dave's summation of the Treaty and Maori issues, he's right on, as anyone with half a brain should realise.

      • roy cartland 5.1.1
        4 February 2022 at 2:58 pm

        You're right, you must have a half brain to agree with him.

        • Blade 5.1.1.1
          4 February 2022 at 3:02 pm

          Incisive review there, Roy. I could agree or disagree with some of the points you have made…if you had made them.no

          • Robert Guyton 5.1.1.1.1
            4 February 2022 at 3:11 pm

            Here come the Actiods!

            • Blade 5.1.1.1.1.1
              4 February 2022 at 3:20 pm

              You are messing the thread up again, Robert.

              Haven't you got something productive to do?

              Maybe check for soil fungi under a microscope?

            • Anne 5.1.1.1.1.2
              4 February 2022 at 4:33 pm

              Stick with it Robert. You know how to send these Actoids off their trolley. 😀

              McFlock is close behind at second.

              • Robert Guyton …
                4 February 2022 at 5:14 pm

                Thanks, Anne – they're a reACTive bunch, aren't they!

                Easy to provoke, hard to take seriously 🙂

                • Blade …
                  4 February 2022 at 7:27 pm

                  ''Easy to provoke, hard to take seriously.''

                  No, just pointing out what a worthless poster you are.

                  Seems you rush inside ( a laptop?) between pruning and have to write something.. anything yes

              • DukeEll …
                4 February 2022 at 5:22 pm

                Can't wait till a young female decides to come out in support of anything but a labour party policy. the joy of watching Anne's viperish comments is second only to McFlock suiting up in hazmat to polish some labour government turds

                • McFlock …
                  4 February 2022 at 5:28 pm

                  Better polishing turds than polishing actual coffins.

                • Anne …
                  4 February 2022 at 6:48 pm

                  Thank you for the compliment Mr Duke. I'm in great company. Robert Guyton and McFlock being among two of my favourite commenters.

                  • Tony Veitch (not etc.) …
                    5 February 2022 at 10:34 am

                    Totally agree Anne. Robert and McFlock and Sanctuary are always worth reading.

                    The right whingers I mainly skim over – I suppose they are a necessary evil?

                    • Anne …
                      5 February 2022 at 10:48 am

                      Always worth reading yourself Tony. smiley

                      We’re lucky to have McFlock who is prepared to read the crap and respond. I usually don’t have the stomach for it.

                • Patricia Bremner …
                  5 February 2022 at 1:04 pm

                  DukeEll your misogyny is on display. "Viperish"

                  Your choices laced with personal invective is doomed to failure.

                  You want us to believe the Health approach has failed, and that an untried parliamentarian given an assisted ride into Parliament has answers?

                  There have been other ego driven bodies who formed parties to promote their weird view of the world before. Jones for one.

                  People are tired of messages about covid.

                  Covid does not care about that. It will increase regardless of what you say or do.

                  If you catch it and have to manage at home, you will be hoping to get help from that extra third of the government employees. Go figure.

                  • Shanreagh …
                    5 February 2022 at 2:09 pm

                    Agree PB, and also the children kept at home in a Covid house will be getting their school work because the PC set ups have been budgeted for and planned for possibly by the extras. or they will be doing day to day work so the regulars can work on special Covid related work.

                    Having gone through all manner of sinking lids and then the duopoly that was neo/lib there is nothing magic about rationing staff.

                    In times like this we need to take on staff to get us through.

                    In times past important stuff was just not done as the Politicians needed to know about user pays, returns etc.

                    In one of the sectors I was working we could not put an acceptable (to them) reason forward plus return for doing it, as to why someone should answer counter queries or telephone queries from people who knew they needed help on a land enquiry but did not know exactly where to go. This is before the days of widespread computers etc. Our public counters were closed forthwith.

                    Of course we honoured this prohibition on help…NOT. We worked it so that people who got through the many gate keepers on the phone we helped. Mind blowing stuff.

                    Be aware of those spouting the small government mantra until you see the whites of their eyes. From my experience they are usually the ones who have no idea how large public focussed workplaces 'work'.

                    And no, the making of a legislative decision that is subject to scrutiny by the courts, ombudsman, ministers is not the same as making a decision on what wood or PC supplier to use, as I was earnestly told by one consultant.

                    Ahaaaa me what wasted years for Public Servants/Public Service. One of my staff had been through 11 restructures and me 8 when I left. When I came back he had been through 3 more restructures in the 4 years I was away. .

                    • Patricia Bremner …
                      5 February 2022 at 6:09 pm

                      Hello Shangreah, yes those exercises in futility were just an ever increasing whirlpool where talent was sucked down and thrown out.

                      Absolutely no retraining, but job titles were changed at whim and the job description formed to trip the unwary. "Sinking Lid" system to remove public servants and to make any Public "Service" invisible.

                      I had a friend go through endless restructuring of the DOC Library in Rotorua, so I understand completely.

                      Those who laud small government actually are saying, "do it on your own" or contact one of our "wonderful independent consultants" (who used to work for us.)

                      Consultancies were 2 a penny springing up like mushrooms. ( But of course, expensive and no guarantees. )

                      Looking at 246 covid cases today and in 4 days? 500, 4 days later 1000.

                      Staff will be needed for calls, food and medicine delivery etc. Blade's complaint about numbers is typical austerity thinking.

                      Cheers. PS. Grant has ha his sessie serrated adenomas removed, 10in all, and it appears hopeful they have not turned to cancer yet Cheers)

                    • Patricia Bremner …
                      5 February 2022 at 6:24 pm

                      Sessile serrated adenomas Typing quickly and cooking dinner lol.

                    • Shanreagh …
                      6 February 2022 at 10:42 am

                      Patricia….best wishes for good results from Grant's procedure.

          • Roy cartland 5.1.1.1.2
            4 February 2022 at 6:03 pm

            Why should I?

            🎣🎣🎣

      • The Unliving 5.1.2
        4 February 2022 at 5:28 pm

        ''In the middle of a pandemic'':

        1- The Government is hellbent on pushing on with Three Waters.

        2- The government wants to go ahead with DHB restructuring.

        3- The government is going ahead with Auckland's Light Rail.

        So what? Why is this bad? What should the government be doing instead?

        As for Dave's summation of the Treaty and Maori issues, he's right on, as anyone with half a brain should realise.

        What if you have more than half a brain?

      • Blazer 5.1.3
        5 February 2022 at 6:36 pm

        Hey Blade..after 9 years of a Natz Govt under Key/English…what were their major achievements to make NZ a better place…and please try not to mention the GFC and the Chch earthquakes?

  6. Mr Nobody 6
    4 February 2022 at 2:23 pm

    I think you're foolish not to think that Seymour's speech won't see a positive impact in the polls for ACT as he has tapped into a growing sense of discontent about how this government has failed to fulfill their election promises in particular around housing and the changes they are pushing around maoridom which plenty of non-maori are concerned about.

    The discontent around Maori rights etc has been largely ignored by all political parties in recent years especially following John Keys coalition with the Maori party however at a societal level it never went away and if anything has only increased.

    I expect that like gun owners who felt betrayed by both National and Labour at the last election Act will be able to capture those discontent with a perceived separatist agenda being pushed by Labour and at best at least Endorsed by National. From Nationals perspective it will also allow them to address this while presenting it as simply the cost of a coalition with ACT.

    • Puckish Rogue 6.1
      4 February 2022 at 2:35 pm

      Labour kept their or followed through on some of their big ticket election promises we wouldn't even be in this position

      • Mr Nobody 6.1.1
        4 February 2022 at 2:41 pm

        I agree 100%. I'm not sure the position would be better or worse though, but by failing to implement their promises they have failed those whose votes were won on the basis of those promises and given their opponents ammunition to win their support back and when added to policies like 3 Waters, Rent Control etc it provides ample opportunity for the ACT and National.

        • Puckish Rogue 6.1.1.1
          4 February 2022 at 3:20 pm

          I can't locate the link but it stated that young female voters overwhelmingly voter Labour, not surprisingly since they identified strongly with Ardern and theres nothing wrong with that but being let down housing and childhood poverty etc means that those female swing voters are up for grabs…

          On a completely different, absolutely nothing at all to do with the previous, subject isn't Nicola Willis nice, shes well educated, happily married, 4 kids, early 40s, professional career.

          Her political beliefs are social liberal, and has a focus on LGTBA rights and action on climate change.

          She is a member of the National Party's BlueGreen environmental caucus. Willis supports euthanasia, and is pro-choice.

          • mikesh 6.1.1.1.1
            5 February 2022 at 10:48 am

            I agree. Nicola Willis is one of the few members of the National parliamentary party that I like. However, I don't think she would be any more successful, as housing minister, in solving the housing crisis, than the current government. That particular problem seems to be the result of well entrenched attitudes to home ownership and financialisation.

          • Anne 6.1.1.1.2
            5 February 2022 at 11:04 am

            Is she National's answer to Jacinda Ardern? I don't know, but one thing I do know… she would never have to put up with the vile, crude and malicious claims/stories that have dogged Jacinda every step of the way.

            No criticism of Willis meant by the above. Just saying.

        • Blazer 6.1.1.2
          5 February 2022 at 6:18 pm

          Good to see you commenting here..John Eales.

    • Robert Guyton 6.2
      4 February 2022 at 2:55 pm

      "I think you're foolish not to think that Seymour's speech won't see a positive impact.."

      Do you?

      • Mr Nobody 6.2.1
        4 February 2022 at 3:16 pm

        Yes Robert I made a typo. However, I am sure that understood the meaning of my post.

        However as I said to your earlier comments to me "If you consider name-calling and grammar as a rebuttal or adding to the discussion then don't be surprised when there is a change of government at the next election and this site becomes an echo chamber of like minds/opinion."

        My understanding was that the Policy of this site was:

        "We encourage robust debate and we’re tolerant of dissenting views. But this site run for reasonably rational debate between dissenting viewpoints and we intend to keep it operating that way.

        What we’re not prepared to accept are pointless personal attacks, or tone or language that has the effect of excluding others. We are intolerant of people starting or continuing flamewars where there is little discussion or debate."

        Clearly, I am mistaken so I will excuse myself. Thanks to the Admin/Moderators and anybody else involved for their efforts. I've enjoyed visiting.

        • Robert Guyton 6.2.1.1
          4 February 2022 at 5:23 pm

          C ya.

        • Ben 6.2.1.2
          4 February 2022 at 7:56 pm

          Mr Nobody, I’m surprised you’ve made it this far. Normally you would have been shouted down and banned by the mod for offering a dissenting opinion. The extreme left don’t like thoughtful different ideas at all (the Gulags have been used liberally).

    • lprent 6.3
      4 February 2022 at 5:50 pm

      I think you're foolish not to think that Seymour's speech won't see a positive impact in the polls for ACT…

      It may do that. After all there are a lot of ignorant bigots who are drifting back to National from Act at present. It may reverse that flow.

      Of course it isn't that likely to grow the right vote. Because after listening to the pile of hackneyed, incomprehensible, and incoherent shit that Seymour just handed out, National's coalition partner will probably lose centrist voters to Labour as being somwhat more rational.

      • pat 6.3.1
        4 February 2022 at 5:58 pm

        Come on Iprent…ignorant bigots is a sweeping statement….we are talking about (in many cases) people under extreme stress, they are focused on the immediate and the personal, and that should be understandable, even if not agreed upon.

        I wouldnt like to be the owner of a SME reliant on ever increasing real estate values and international tourism in NZ today.

        • lprent 6.3.1.1
          4 February 2022 at 6:14 pm

          From anecdotal evidence of the people I run across who favour the right, the main reason that a lot of them were jumping Acts way from National was because the Nats were hopeless with their internal fighting, and Act was attracting them because of the oppositional response to

          1. Anything to do with covid restrictions that they found personally irritating – like wearing a mask or having holidays disrupted. I count that as ignorant.
          2. Anything supporting the Maori culture and economy. Personally I just view that as straight racial bigotry. Bearing in mind the persistent structural statistics about Maori demographics that have endured and gotten significantly worse over the last 50 years – I generally find the same people are a cause of those worsening statistics.
          3. Same for anything to do with improving social end economic position of women in our society – again because of simple bigotry. You only have to look at the morons who think that 'cindy' is an appropriate way to talk about anyone. For me – I classify anyone doing that as being a sexual bigot and a complete idiot..

          To me – I think that is the majority of the soft vote swinging back and forth between National and Act.

          It appears to be a large chunk of David Seymour’s new policies as expressed in his “state of the union” speech.

          • pat 6.3.1.1.1
            4 February 2022 at 6:22 pm

            Theres undoubtably an element that meet your description, but ACT are attracting a sizeable young vote and id suggest that much of that support is not ignorant bigots , but rather uncertain people looking for a tribe.

            It is too easy to sit back with a lifetime of experience and bag those who have yet to acquire it….we were all young and aspirational once (well, some of us…the rest just drank)

            Cheers.

            • Robert Guyton 6.3.1.1.1.1
              4 February 2022 at 6:24 pm

              Why would a young person…ACT???????

            • Muttonbird 6.3.1.1.1.2
              4 February 2022 at 9:11 pm

              but ACT are attracting a sizeable young vote and id suggest that much of that support is not ignorant bigots , but rather uncertain people looking for a tribe.

              I blame the parenting.

              • pat …
                4 February 2022 at 9:24 pm

                Lol…well I guess you could, but it dosnt change the fact…the question remains why ACT appeals ahead of the alternatives for that group…what is missing from the alternatives?

                Affordable housing options perhaps? the sense that their concerns are heard?

                We ignore it at our peril

            • Shanreagh 6.3.1.1.1.3
              4 February 2022 at 9:20 pm

              I really don't understand that someone as aspirational as I was when younger would ever have voted for a party like ACT. They seem common garden variety bigots.

              The slagging off at Maori would have done it for me, coming from one of those large families where we have our Maori kin.

              As for being stupid about mask wearing and public health. Well I'm a protestor with the best of them but protesting over things that should be commonsense and self protective quite apart from helping others…….

              But then I never cease to be amazed at how, well conservative, some younger people are.

              Their age I wanted to change the world, to make the world a fairer place for all, still do in fact.

              I had enough knowledge then to know that conservatives don't change the world so that would have been my rationale against ever going with ACT back when I was younger.

              • pat …
                4 February 2022 at 9:29 pm

                The young people I know consider ACT for the simple reason I as a young person (a long time ago) would consider anything that opposes that which I see as failing…ACT happens to be a high profile alternative and it purports to be against the existing, As said to Iprent, the young dont have a lifetime of experience to judge what that means, that is not to say they are without intelligence (or are necessarily bigoted or whatever), only experience.

                And ACT are not ‘conservative’ by any means, they are radical….just radical in an anti socialist direction….but then the fact you class them as conservative shows how deceptive it all can be.

                • Shanreagh …
                  4 February 2022 at 10:19 pm

                  Well your view of radical differs from mine. I would have classed them as reactionary. Bad things from the past dressed up in new clothes.

                  I don't give to racists, my upbringing plus education would mean I would not have given this party a second glance. Why would I?

                  I used to go to the Nga Tamatoa rooms when at Uni……somewhere near them there was the Anarchists Society and their book selection was much more interesting than around town. Varsity bookstore was pretty good too. Not that I was an Anarchist or a Maori radical – they spoke a language of moving away from the status quo and with Nga Tamatoa, of confronting injustice.

                  But above all I had a view to change the world so everyone would have a fair deal, not so that I could earn a huge salary. In the circles I moved in then, aspiring to earn a big salary when the whole world was out there in need of change was looked on as an utterly pedestrian aim.

                  I accept that the younger ones seem to be more conservative than me and have an I/me/self focus that was not really part of my growing up. I experienced that conservatism when I went back to varsity, about 12 years later. So this conservatism in younger ones is not new.

                  This below is often wrongly attributed to Churchill:

                  If you're not a liberal when you're 25, you have no heart. If you're not a conservative by the time you're 35, you have no brain.'

                  Perhaps they are going to do it the other way around, conservatives young and liberals later.

                  • pat …
                    4 February 2022 at 10:25 pm

                    Suggest you revisit the meaning of conservative.

                    • Shanreagh …
                      5 February 2022 at 2:09 am

                      Small 'c' not capital C = Tories. The quote does not refer to political parties but attitude ie idealistic when young, more settled, prudent, conventional when older & presumably with jobs, responsibilities etc.

                      This is a Google list of synonyms for conservative:

                      adjectives and nouns

                      My meanings come from the first part of the list the younger ones at university were orthodox, conventional, hidebound, old fashioned, unchanging, dyed in the wool…….

                      old-fashioned

                      dyed-in-the-wool

                      unchanging

                      hidebound

                      1.

                      traditionalist

                      traditional

                      conventional

                      orthodox

                      stable

                      old-fashioned

                      dyed-in-the-wool

                      unchanging

                      hidebound

                      cautious

                      prudent

                      careful

                      safe

                      timid

                      unadventurous

                      unenterprising

                      set in one's ways

                      moderate

                      middle-of-the-road

                      temperate

                      stick in the mud

                      2.

                      right-wing

                      reactionary

                      traditionalist

                      unprogressive

                      establishmentarian

                      blimpish

                      ultra-right

                      fundamentalist

                      alt-right

                      Tory

                      Republican

                      true-blue

                      noun

                      right-winger

                      reactionary

                      rightist

                      diehard

                      Tory

                      Republican

                      true blue

          • Gosman 6.3.1.1.2
            4 February 2022 at 6:27 pm
            1. ACT (and especially David Seymour) has been supportive of Covid policies such as social distancing regulations, Mask usage, and even requiring people to get Covid vaccinations before they can do something.

            2. ACT has no problem supporting Maori culture and economy. In fact it has received praise from various elements of Maoridom (e.g. Willie Jackson) on how policies they promote have benefited Maori).

            3. ACT does not have any policies that are specifically anti-women indeed it supports many polices (such as those around Abortion) that some would argue are pro-women.

            • lprent 6.3.1.1.2.1
              4 February 2022 at 6:46 pm

              Yeah, those are the policies.

              It is always nice being hypocritical and having speeches that cater to the baser instincts by playing directly on the politics of envy and hatred. That is what I hear from the swinging supporters of Act.

              It is also what I hear whenever David Seymour makes speech that is critical of another party or a governments policies by only talking about the flaws, and seldom of never mentioning what he or Act would do as a concrete policy.

              That is what I hear in his state of the nation speech, and apparently what a large number of other people do as well.

              Good politics for picking up ignorant bigots. Not so good for being involved in running a government. But it doesn't sound to me like that is his or Act's objective.

            • Robert Guyton 6.3.1.1.2.2
              4 February 2022 at 7:57 pm

              "…some would argue are pro-women."

              Some.

              ACToids.

              Might.

              • Sabine …
                4 February 2022 at 9:50 pm

                And some can't even define what women is, or pretend that womenhood is something that can be appropriated and role played by anyone who has girl brains or girl feels. So really best to leave women out of this altogether, its not as if anyone of any of the Parties really cared about those not born male. Unless of course they are pandering cause 'votes' are needed.

                You want to know why young people might go to A? because N, L and G don't deliver, and they too have no ideas how to fix things. They have band aids at best. And the young of today know that their world – when most of us here are gone to a different realm, will be a dog eats dog world, and Act is darwinian. The strong survive the rest will fall way side. As it has always been.

              • Gosman …
                4 February 2022 at 10:36 pm

                Do you not think making Abortion easier for women to get is pro-woman?

          • Shanreagh 6.3.1.1.3
            4 February 2022 at 9:06 pm

            Post of the day! LPrent.

    • Mike Roberts 6.4
      6 February 2022 at 5:43 pm

      Yes, I think that there is mounting discontent around how Maori issues are handled and it may become a large election issue in time.

      I'm interested in how applicable Te Tiriti is now. The situation in 1840 is nothing like the situation we have now. I've known many Maori in my 17 years in this country (all very nice people, honestly) but none who have pure blood lines or who live anything other than the lifestyle of most other people. So just who are these Maori who often refer to themselves as "our people"? There is something to be said of, in 2022, treating everyone equally, and in law they generally are. How were "Maori" failed in the vaccine rollout? How are they failed in the justice system? If they, whoever "they" are, are disproportionally represented in statistics, is it because they are Maori or are there other factors which also apply to many Pakeha? If it's the latter, shouldn't we look at how this wider group might be better served? Narrowing it down to "Maori" all the time just fosters racism, IMO, which is something I'd love to get away from.

      Seymour does often talk out of his backside but occasionally he sounds eminently sensible. I hope we don't get to the level of US politics when anything said by one party is automatically ridiculed by the other party. Political parties are made up of people and all people have sensible ideas at times.

  7. Robert Guyton 7
    4 February 2022 at 2:52 pm

    "David Seymour should stick to twerking."

    He is.

    Sticking to it.

    Twerking.

    David Seymour.

  8. Gosman 8
    4 February 2022 at 2:52 pm

    "The claim that people from South Africa came to New Zealand to escape Apartheid needs to be qualified. My impression is that more than a few left South Africa after the end of Apartheid for different reasons."

    A number of people left South Africa during Apartheid and settled in NZ to escape Apartheid (e.g. former South African Honorary Consul and NZ Race relations conciliator Gregory Fortuin). Many more have left subsequent and there could be a case to made they are also escaping racial preferences.

    • mikesh 8.1
      5 February 2022 at 12:54 pm

      I think many South Africans emigrated to escape the consequences of abandoning apartheid.

    • pat 8.2
      5 February 2022 at 1:05 pm

      Id suggest that if you lived in a location with some of the problems South Africa has (and is) experienced and you had the opportunity to extract your family from them you may well do the same.

      "Around 57 people are murdered in South Africa every day.[76] The murder rate increased rapidly in the late-1980s and early-1990s.[77] In 2001, a South African was more likely to be murdered than die in a car crash,[78] but the murder rate halved between 1994 and 2009 from 67 to 34 murders per 100,000 people.[79] Between 2011 and 2015, it stabilised to around 32 homicides per 100,000 people although the total number of lives lost had increased due to the increase in population.[80] In the 2016/17 year, the rate of murders increased to 52 a day, with 19,016 murders recorded between April 2016 to March 2017.[81]"

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_South_Africa

  9. Ad 9
    4 February 2022 at 2:56 pm

    There's still plenty of life left in the Orewa Speech if he can just shade it into 'freedom' more accurately.

    There would be no problem forming a 2023 Labour-led government if Shaw was half as competent at politics as Seymour is.

    • Robert Guyton 9.1
      4 February 2022 at 3:12 pm

      Shaw is twice the politician Seymour is.

      He does his work in Government.

      Not in Opposition.

      • Ad 9.1.1
        4 February 2022 at 3:48 pm

        Imagine a properly popular growing Green movement throughout the country. That's what Act feels like in its rise.

        In most mid years the Greens track to 12-14% and the deflate to 6-8% on election day. You're on 9% this mid-year.

        Shaw needs the populist touch so bad he should sit at Seymour's feet and takes notes.

        • Robert Guyton 9.1.1.1
          4 February 2022 at 5:19 pm

          Seymour's feet are not fit for any Green to sit at. He though, could learn a great deal at the feet of James Shaw. After all, Seymour is Opposition, Shaw is an influential Minister.

        • Robert Guyton 9.1.1.2
          4 February 2022 at 5:23 pm

          ACTs' "rise"?

          Haven't they slipped, in recent times?

          Backwards, that is.

        • lprent 9.1.1.3
          4 February 2022 at 6:01 pm

          In most mid years the Greens track to 12-14% and the deflate to 6-8% on election day. You're on 9% this mid-year.

          I think that you're wrong there unless you're looking quite a way back.

          Haven't bothered to look back – but that is not my recollection. They usually rose to maybe ~9-10% mid-term whilst in opposition to National and dropped just down from that by ~2-3% at election time.

          I know for sure that you were wrong for 3 years ago as I just wrote a post about a poll in Feb 2019 where the Greens were 6%, and in the most recent 9% from the same pollster.

          My comment was that it was a remarkable shift in the overall pattern, because usually smaller parties supporting the government of the day get hammered in the first and second term. They don't rise 3% between two mid-term polls.

          • Ad 9.1.1.3.1
            4 February 2022 at 6:24 pm

            You need to go through the longer series.

            Probably Swordfish or somesuch will correct me, but my impression is that the Gteens peak way too early and underperform at the polls. The 2017 result was the classic.

            Search Results – Roy Morgan Research

            • lprent 9.1.1.3.1.1
              4 February 2022 at 7:06 pm

              …Gteens peak way too early…

              They do. But the drop or more often a rise is typically in the latter part of an election year as the serious campaigning kicks in. They are usually static in the mid-term years – which is what you referred to.

              But generally they drop relative to recent polls in the election day results. Not during the intermediate years where you tend to see steady poll results wit slight growth or falls.

              Here are poll graphs from the term leading up to the 2017 election from wikipedia. Just do the phrase "nz polls <election year>" it is usually the 2nd or 3rd on the results.

              2017 shows what is essentially a jacinda effect.

              2014 – they had about a 2% drop in the election from polls from memory

              2011 – they increased at the election period at the expense of labour and then dropped about 3% in the election day from memmory

              2008 dropped a few percent on election day

              • lprent …
                4 February 2022 at 7:09 pm

                I should put the current one in for completeness

                And leading up to 2020

                The rise after the election was pretty much bounceback to their pre-election results followed by a slow decline toward their longer term averages of last term.

        • Robert Guyton 9.1.1.4
          4 February 2022 at 6:26 pm

          Imagine a "properly popular growing Green movement"

          How tidy! How…proper – should appeal to young green thinkers….not 🙂

      • Herodotus 9.1.2
        4 February 2022 at 7:47 pm

        He IMO lacks integrity and they are now an inferior image of what they once were, and willing to sell there sole in being complicit in screwing up the environment, anyone who thinks that for NZ "A whopping two-thirds of the reduction could come from purchasing offshore climate offsets or other global reductions New Zealand purchases, rather than a domestic cut." and stand up and sell this as a victory deserves his place in the beehive. Pity he has sold you his image rather than the govts lack of substance. Look more closely and you may then understand John Lydon " Ever get the feeling you've been cheated"

        https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/126838746/new-zealand-increases-climate-pledge-aims-to-cut-emissions-by-50-per-cent-by-2030

    • Blade 9.2
      4 February 2022 at 3:17 pm

      ''There's still plenty of life left in the Orewa Speech.''

      You bet, many Pakeha have had it with this incessant push to Maorify New Zealand. And they aren't all racist.

      I went to Stationary Warehouse today. They had a selection of school exercise books with the subject on the cover written in Maori. The same with our local hospital. All names of departments are in Maori, with English a second minority mention.

      It's not that I have a problem with the use of Maori names. My problem is the use of Maori names that no one uses. I have yet to hear a Maori use the Maori name for radiology when asking for directions. Who would?

      More tokenistic bullshit…and many people have had enough!

      Rant over.sad

      • Ad 9.2.1
        4 February 2022 at 3:49 pm

        OMG old people ranting

        • Blade 9.2.1.1
          4 February 2022 at 7:41 pm

          No ADlib…just expanding on your point. You do remember? I'm meant to be the one who is old.

          ''There's still plenty of life left in the Orewa Speech if he can just shade it into 'freedom' more accurately.''

          No need for shading anything. The facts is many voters are over Maori.

          ''Rant over''

          That was a freebee. The usual suspects couldn't resist the bait.

          • Drowsy M. Kram 9.2.1.1.1
            4 February 2022 at 8:05 pm

            The facts [sic] is many voters are over Maori.

            Might some of those "many voters" also be over the moon about these facts?
            Not you, of course, Blade, but those voters – I think you know who I mean wink

      • Macro 9.2.2
        4 February 2022 at 3:53 pm

        🙄

      • Robert Guyton 9.2.3
        4 February 2022 at 5:21 pm

        Relevance over.

      • roy cartland 9.2.4
        4 February 2022 at 7:17 pm

        Ever occur to you that some of us like learning? We don't use the reo terms cos we don't know 'em. But would love to.

        Course it hasn't, but that's no surprise.

        The juggernaut is rolling. Get aboard, don't be so boring.

        • Blade 9.2.4.1
          4 February 2022 at 7:51 pm

          ''Ever occur to you that some of us like learning? We don't use the reo terms cos we don't know 'em. But would love to.''

          Did it ever occur to you to take a course in Maori? Tokenism on TV and with signage will teach you nothing.

          ''The juggernaut is rolling. Get aboard, don't be so boring.''

          No, a juggernaut of ignorance is coming. A new generation of children who can't add 2plus2… but who can tell you the name of the local maunga. They know nothing of the treasures western culture has given us. But they know about colonisation.

          These are the people who will be wiping your arse in your dotage. Let's hope they know what toilet paper is?

          • Robert Guyton 9.2.4.1.1
            4 February 2022 at 8:02 pm

            The use of the reo Maori on television has been hugely effective in normalising the use of Maori words and phrases.

            Some contrarians have held out, but he aha, he pai tena!

          • Patricia Bremner 9.2.4.1.2
            5 February 2022 at 7:53 pm

            Mathematics was developed in Sumeria in the East not the West.

            The treasures of the Western culture are also valued by Maori. e.g. Oceanography People Legends Opera and Mathematics

            Your crude othering says more about you than any carer who has had to do menial tasks.

      • mac1 9.2.5
        4 February 2022 at 8:51 pm

        So, who gets to decide, Blade, for example in official signage, what amount of Māori words are used?

        You, for instance, with your vocabulary gleaned from words you believe you have heard people you believe to be Māori use?

        That would be a useful sample.

        Ever heard of a Māori potato called 'tutaekuri"? That would be apposite.

        I was talking to three European Kiwis today about potatoes and they all knew what 'tutaekuri' meant…….

  10. Stuart Munro 10
    4 February 2022 at 3:05 pm

    Meh – Seymour's twerking wouldn't make the top 10 000.

    He could do plausible Mr Bean impressions though, if he would just stop talking.

    • Shanreagh 10.1
      4 February 2022 at 9:41 pm

      A ha got it ….I always want to laugh when I see Seymour and wondered why…..you have nailed it.

      I think I subconsciously keep expecting him to do something a la Mr Bean.

      The picture in the intro always reminds me of something I once saw in a Carry-on movie about hospitals as a child, where someone was fooling around, and flew through someone else's legs onto a trolley that sped out the ED doors into the street where it had all manner of near misses.

      He really doesn't stand a chance with me with all those influential prior references.

  11. Corey Humm 11
    4 February 2022 at 3:13 pm

    I apologize for venting my anxious frustration at the prospect of a nat/act gov on this blog yesterday.

    The high vaccination rates says more about NZs faith in science and medical experts than its approval of the government.

    Nz is divided, it always is, that's why we have elections. The majority of eligible voters didn't vote for Labour last election (not voting is a vote in itself) as the pandemic reaches two years people are beginning to look beyond COVID and many 2020 labour voters are deeply disappointed with labour's performance outside of COVID and non labour voters are disgusted/horrified.

    With respect, Labour and it's supporters seem deeply disconnected from reality for a lot of people, inflation may be global but politics is local and NZ already was horrible to live in for many people pre COVID, our extremely low wage economy, duopoly supermarkets and grotesquely high living costs and apocalyptic housing costs have been made infinitely worse by COVID and this has caused major anxiety, anger, fear, mental and physical health issues, distrust and disgust at a government who puts on a concerned face and then refutes people's experiences and worse yet rules out doing anything truly meaningful.

    Worse yet is the condescending way Labour and it's supporters respond to genuine grief and anger about inaction and living costs with statistics that say "you're wrong about your experience because unemployment is x , new builds are at y and poverty is at z" when everyone knows statistics are meaningless numbers and what matters is what's going on on the ground.

    This is how governments grow stale and old not listening and getting stuck in their ways and labour aren't listening. Living costs are out of control, young people should abandon this country en masse, we're never going to make a decent life here not on these wages, with bills and rents this high , we'll never get ahead.

    NZ is struggle street.

    Ardern is extremely divisive nowadays, all politicians are but particularly in their second term and more so her because of her media and social media presence in our everyday lives over the last two years, it feels like it's been ten years.

    Shes had to deal with a lot but she does deserve to be divisive unlike Clark or key who"under promised and over delivered " Ardern promised the stars and got people really hopeful and excited and positive about the future four years on thats turned really sour, throw statistics all around people don't believe her anymore, from capital gains to marijuana reform to climate to welfare she's taken the easiest short term political gain route whilst constantly talking about transformational change that is not happening and won't happen under her. She's ruled it all out.

    Far from being a youth adjacent relentlessly optimistic progressive she's a cautious conservative like Helen Clark but keeps promising rivers and giving us ponds.

    Act is divisive as all hell but Act is a minor party. It's no more divisive than the Greens, in fact it's less divisive than the Greens because the Greens don't have a sense of humor.

    If you read all this what I'm saying is labours old tactics no longer work, promising stuff that's never gonna happen other than drips of miniscule change is no longer being tolerated and labour needs to stop throwing statistics around and actually listen to the public and if it wants a third term it needs to go nuclear on housing and living costs or they are going to lose and things will get way worse under national than this…

    Labour needs to find new social media tactics and actually listen and if they have to get rid of Ardern to deliver …then they have to get rid of her, four years is a century in the digital age

    • Puckish Rogue 11.1
      4 February 2022 at 3:27 pm

      Irrespective of anything you're a good contributor and you write well

    • Blade 11.2
      4 February 2022 at 3:34 pm

      Post of the day, Corey

      ''Young people should abandon this country en masse, we're never going to make a decent life here not on these wages, with bills and rents this high , we'll never get ahead.''

      Jacinda pumped NZ up yesterday. Talking about New Zealanders able to return. What other media are picking up is young people, and others, aren't interested in returning to New Zealand, especially with Jacinda in charge. She has used up all her goodwill.

      I'm guessing the next crisis will be the mass exodus of Kiwis going overseas for the reasons you have mentioned. That is going to be a hard spin for Labour.

      • Craig H 11.2.1
        4 February 2022 at 4:46 pm

        NZers generally leaving faster than they arrive has been the story of the last 30 years.

        • Blade 11.2.1.1
          4 February 2022 at 8:01 pm

          Quite true, Graig. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next two years.

    • Ad 11.3
      4 February 2022 at 4:17 pm

      I'd be happy to see Robertson take over at some point.

      He has his hands on the tax system and still has the capacity for major moves.

      Many of your points are well made.

  12. Peter 12
    4 February 2022 at 5:12 pm

    Hooton thinks the country is divided. And Luxon is to unite us?

    Well for a start we're divided into racists and non-racists. Is he going to change the racists or get them to go back whence they and their forbears came? There are places they can go where they're unlikely to hear Maori words.

    We're divided into idiots and sensible people over Covid vaccinations. The idiots are ineducable and are unlikely to all die so that division isn't going to be healed.

    And so it goes on …

  13. Adrian 13
    4 February 2022 at 5:58 pm

    Corey, the high vaccination rates are because of the LABOUR governments faith in science and medical experts. I’m sure you meant it that way, just sorted it for you.

  14. georgecom 14
    4 February 2022 at 6:45 pm

    I heard seymour moaning on the radio news about NZ having 'good luck' during the 2 years of covid. indeed, good luck that him and national were not in government. what a shower that would have been. border open one week, closed the next. open, closed, open, closed. no policy on vaccinations, no real clue either. really just a vague idea of introducing rapid antigen tests but no detail how to use them. moaning and criticising is all they had to offer through the 2 years. good luck indeed they were no where near power.

    • georgecom 14.1
      4 February 2022 at 7:28 pm

      oh and I forgot to add Seymour and National potentially flooding NZ with covid cases and putting huge pressure on a health system they would have continued to starve of funds. Huge luck he was not in government

    • Blade 14.2
      4 February 2022 at 8:10 pm

      Seymour is behind the 8 ball regarding this governments luck. As I said a few day ago – luck runs in cycles. Any pro gambler knows that. But this government doesn't. Their luck has gone into a negative cycle. The only chance they have is to call an early election.

  15. Muttonbird 15
    4 February 2022 at 6:52 pm

    Seymour crossed the Rubicon with that speech. A bit like the moment his mentor did the same at Orewa.

    Ripping up the Treaty of Waitangi?

    Seymour's decline is now fixed for good.

    • Blade 15.1
      4 February 2022 at 8:05 pm

      You do understand we can NEVER be a united country with the Treaty. Not that many Maori are too worried about that.

      • Robert Guyton 15.1.1
        4 February 2022 at 8:09 pm

        Treaties are forged to establish peaceful, consciously-tensioned, best-case-for-all- concerned agreements between otherwise differing parties.

        Got a better idea?

        • Blade 15.1.1.1
          4 February 2022 at 8:22 pm

          Yes, a much better idea.

          First, all genuine claims must be settled. Some are very tenuous

          Next, scrap the Treaty, and replace it with a constitution based on individual rights – not collective. That way everyone is equal before the law. No group or organisation can ever override each persons individual rights.

          The constitution must also allow the population to remove any government by force who disregards our constitution.

          At the moment, our government has absolute power in many respects. They would hate the suggestion of a constitution.

          So would Maori. After Justice Cook made his pronouncements, the placards went from:

          The Treaty is a Fraud, to, Honour the Treaty.

          Google:

          "The Treaty is a Fraud"

          ''They argued that Māori had been tricked in 1840, that either they had never agreed to sign away their sovereignty or that pākehā breaches of the Treaty had rendered it invalid. Since the Treaty was invalid, it was argued, the New Zealand government had no right to sovereignty over the country.''

          • Robert Guyton 15.1.1.1.1
            4 February 2022 at 8:48 pm

            "scrap the treaty"

            Thanks, Blade.

            Your position is now crystal clear.

            Not much of a vote-winner, I'd venture.

            But don't let that stop you.

            Or Rimmer.

            • Blade 15.1.1.1.1.1
              4 February 2022 at 8:53 pm

              You asked for a better idea. I gave you WHAT I consider is a better idea.

              Now, let's hear your ideas.

              • Robert Guyton …
                4 February 2022 at 8:59 pm

                Yours is not a better idea, Blade, it's a foolish fancy that has no hope of ever being applied, adopted, supported or taken up by New Zealanders, especially any governing party in New Zealand. I am puzzled as to why you would propose it; you seem entirely out of touch with public sentiment and political currents. Still, it was revealing and instructive.

                My "ideas"

                Honour the treaty.

                It's the honourable thing to do.

                • Blade …
                  4 February 2022 at 9:13 pm

                  ''That has no hope of ever being applied, adopted, supported or taken up by New Zealanders.''

                  That is true.

                  ''I am puzzled as to why you would propose it.''

                  To show what could have been.

                  When the shite hits the fan and Kiwis wake up to the fact their individual rights have been completely extinguished, they will be left with only two masters – the government and Maori.

                  You seem entirely out of touch with public sentiment and political currents.

                  Yes and no. My time ( and those who think like me) is not yet …but it's heading that way.

                  • The Unliving …
                    4 February 2022 at 9:22 pm

                    When the shite hits the fan and Kiwis wake up to the fact their individual rights have been completely extinguished, they will be left with only two masters – the government and Maori.

                    Isn't that a bit extreme? In what way have individual rights been extinguished?

                    • Blade …
                      4 February 2022 at 10:07 pm

                      Maori cultural claims over private property.

                      The right to own a semi automatic because the police didn't do a proper check on a nutcase from Aussie.

                      Locking the public out of public land co- governed by Maori, eg, Lake Waikaremoana.

                      Having to obey Mob road rules when the Mob have a tangi. Non compliance will result in the bash.

                      Increasingly intrusive financial rules that curtail the amount of cash you can move before you are reported. I had to show ID proof when depositing $60 into a government account. Wait till we go cashless. (ABS bank, although Westpac is the official government public bank)

                      The increasing use of ID accounts when dealing with government agencies and private organisations. Of course to get one of these ID accounts you must supply a screed of personal information. No ID account is making interfaces very difficult with organisations.

                      Maori only health services in public hospitals. When my mum was in hospital we had Kaitiaki liaison officer check on us. Don't Pakeha pay taxes, too? Don't they deserve the same?

                      The use of a cultural report for the judge when sentencing Maori. To my knowledge Pakeha receive no such report for a judge.

                      The right to import products is becoming more difficult. The rules are changing at a whim.

                      The right to enjoy a fag and some dak. The government is taxing the former out of existence. And not moving on the latter.

                      The right to import your own medicine. The government would rather you died.

                      The right to get certain medical screening procedures without going through a medical professional.

                      The right for doctors to prescribe or suggest alternatives to drug therapies for their patients.

                      The right to drink raw milk unless the producer follows a raft of rules regardless of having a certified milk facility.

                      The right of children to enjoy an education free of indoctrination into Maori culture, climate change and Green environmentalism, unless the parents can afford private education and a real world Cambridge examination.

                  • Robert Guyton …
                    4 February 2022 at 9:24 pm

                    "My time ( and those who think like me) is not yet …but it's heading that way."

                    Dreamer.

                    You've hitched your wagon to a dead star.

                    • Blade …
                      4 February 2022 at 10:19 pm

                      I sure someone somewhere had a snigger when the name of Hitler was mentioned in the beginning. Of course as the years rolled by the sniggering stopped.

                    • McFlock …
                      4 February 2022 at 10:29 pm

                      I sure someone somewhere had a snigger when the name of Hitler was mentioned in the beginning. Of course as the years rolled by the sniggering stopped.

                      Tomorrow belongs to you, huh?

                      Always good to have a reminder, folks: when someone tells you who they are, believe them.

                    • solkta …
                      4 February 2022 at 10:36 pm

                      haha we have been warned.

                    • Blade …
                      4 February 2022 at 10:38 pm

                      "Always good to have a reminder, folks: when someone tells you who they are, believe them."

                      Folks, it's also a good reminder to see how people on this blog cannot distinguish between examples and reality. The only reality is there's.

                      Of course, it follows they vote Labour and the Greens.

                      Enough said.

                    • McFlock …
                      4 February 2022 at 11:01 pm

                      People who probably got sniggered at a bit before achieving their goals or political power:

                      • Kate Sheppard
                      • Michael Savage
                      • Maggie Thatcher
                      • MLK
                      • Golda Meir
                      • Ronald Reagan
                      • Emmeline Pankhurst
                      • the mango moron, dolt45

                      I even popped in a couple that tories might look up to. Blade chooses:

                      • hitler
                    • Blade …
                      4 February 2022 at 11:06 pm

                      Yes, I chose Hitler for a reason. But maybe someone will point that out to you. Thankyou for the list. Believe it or not I have heard of them all.

                    • McFlock …
                      4 February 2022 at 11:56 pm

                      oh please explain it to me.

                  • solkta …
                    4 February 2022 at 10:26 pm

                    So which is it, no hope of ever being applied or heading that way?

                    • Blade …
                      4 February 2022 at 10:31 pm

                      No hope of it ever being applied in the foreseeable future, but heading in the direction of a revolt back towards individualism and a constitution. In my opinion.

                  • mac1 …
                    4 February 2022 at 10:38 pm

                    "My time ( and those who think like me) is not yet …but it's heading that way."

                    Listen to "Fire and Rain" by James Taylor A line there jumped into my mind whenI read that end of your comment.

                    "Won't you look down upon me, Jesus?
                    You've got to help me make a stand
                    You've just got to see me through another day
                    My body's aching and my time is at hand
                    And I won't make it any other way."

                    I fear you are seeing fire and rain, Blade. Bleak times. Hard times. I wish you better.

                    • Blade …
                      4 February 2022 at 10:48 pm

                      James Taylor is my favourite Acoustic guitar player. What a pity you had to use him as an example.

                      When he was with Carol King, they produced some great songs.

                      This reminds of the affair between Labour and the New Zealand public.

                      I likewise wish you the best…and hope you understand why things have to turn out the way they will.

                    • mac1 …
                      5 February 2022 at 10:48 am

                      Glad you like James Taylor. I have a song book of his and some are in my playing repertoire. I'm sorry that you think he is somehow damaged by a different interpretation, or that it's a pityto find that someone with different views likes the same material.

                      I prefer to think as a musician that music brings us together, and the meaning that we find in other's songs is less to do with what the writer meant but more with how our life experience is met by them.

                      As an introvert, Fire and Rain speaks to me about both loneliness and hope.

                      Interesting to see you see a linkage between political 'marriages' and personal relationships. Something I remember from my student days was being told that while the Left have all the good songs, they never won any battles……

                      Anyway, thanks for the reply. It has given me a good idea for a repertoire for my next singing gigs for the local Alzheimer's society. Carole King and James Taylor with maybe some CSN and Cat Stevens.

                      I find that the old songs are still remembered by dementia sufferers, and no doubt trigger all sorts of memories.

                      Same songs, different lives, still all have meaning.

                      A long way from a twerking David Seymour, but who knows what songs he enjoys are also enjoyed by me. Thanks for the Carole King song. It is a sad number, but some of the great albums are end of relationship albums.

                  • Patricia Bremner …
                    5 February 2022 at 1:42 pm

                    "Rimmer" Good one. "Always on the rim" Yes that fits.

                  • Patricia Bremner …
                    5 February 2022 at 1:48 pm

                    Are you in the crowd of "If it takes a thousand years, we will rise again"? That would explain so much about your beliefs.

          • mikesh 15.1.1.1.2
            5 February 2022 at 2:25 pm

            They probably thought they were relinquishing to the pakeha the "shadow" of the land. But, at that time, they possibly would have had no idea what that actually signified. Also, they were probably not familiar with British institution of land ownership. However, a treaty was entered into, even if neither side was clear about what it meant to the other side, and probably should still be observed in some way or another. Perhaps it should be scrapped and replaced with something acceptable to both parties

      • Muttonbird 15.1.2
        4 February 2022 at 8:12 pm

        Threatening to tear up our founding document means David Seymour will never get close to government.

        It's crazy, racist stuff.

        I assume he believes Don Brash was a success and he is following that path. What of Don Brash now? Banned from speaking in most places. That is the fate awaiting idiot boy apprentice, David Seymour.

        Good job too.

        • Blade 15.1.2.1
          4 February 2022 at 8:29 pm

          You are an example of why we need a constitution.

          ''What of Don Brash now? Banned from speaking in most places. '

          So much for democracy, eh?

          But then again, Lefties hate western culture too.?

          • Muttonbird 15.1.2.1.1
            4 February 2022 at 8:48 pm

            I presume this constitution would excluded any and all reference to Te Tiriti o Waitangi, New Zealand’s founding document (no matter how much you hate it).

            So much for democracy, eh?

            • Blade 15.1.2.1.1.1
              4 February 2022 at 8:54 pm

              Yes, it would. But you obviously cannot read.

              • ghostwhowalksnz …
                5 February 2022 at 8:46 pm

                Already in BORA

                "Everyone has the right to freedom of expression, including the right to seek, receive, and impart information and opinions of any kind in any form".

                Brash should get a lawyer if he been silenced.

                Or ask Hone Hawawira he was de-platformed around 2011 from Speaking at Auckland University Law school by Nats and Act student activists

                Praised by David Farrar in his blog at the time …the students that is.

    • Anne 15.2
      4 February 2022 at 9:00 pm

      Muttonbird @ 15
      That is my view too. Its almost as if he lost the plot a bit because the latest poll had his party dropping and he was getting used to it rising. He was desperate for immediate momentum.

      It would be very interesting to know who is political advisers are.

      • Muttonbird 15.2.1
        4 February 2022 at 9:07 pm

        He's a student politician who never graduated.

        Pulling stunts like burning New Zealand's founding document betrays the absolute arrogance of the man, thinking he is better than the very fabric of our young country. You only say this stuff when you believe it will never be actioned. He’s speaking to a crowd of drunk teenagers in the Quad.

        Then he also wants to close all government agencies.

        What a bizarre, attention seeking mess this clown is.

  16. Muttonbird 16
    4 February 2022 at 9:25 pm

    Naked racists like Brash and Seymour are still at it, 120 years later.

  17. vto 17
    6 February 2022 at 7:21 am

    Aotearoa has a very big problem with the treaty.

    It was a terribly constructed document, rushed together in the heat of hell-hole Russell in a few short days by some colonial half-arse 'legal' types. It still today cannot be understood due to the duplicate and other non-matching meanings. Can you imagine such a crappy document and process happening today? One party didn't even have representation in its construction ffs.

    It is a terrible document.

    And now today, by way of the treaty, we have one party wanting to make law over the other without representation, which is contrary to the most basic norm of 'democratic' systems… no legislation without representation … the f..king crown did that in the past and now the other wants to do the same… this. will. not. go. make. no. mistake.

    But… it needs to be honoured by the English Crown who entered it (ha, the english crown honourable. lmfao)… and then it needs repairing. It has been broken from the start. It needs fixing.

    Life in aotearoanewzealand cannot continue under the treaty as currently written.

    It is not sustainable

    says my 2c quickly on this large subject about which such few words struggle to convey all points

    kia kaha

      • solkta 17.1.1
        6 February 2022 at 8:06 am

        Trotter is in the same basket as Brash, just not so brash. His argument is basically that because most Pakeha have understood the Treaty in a particular way for most of our history, then that is the 'truth'. It is nonsensical to argue that only one party's understanding of a treaty is valid.

        • vto 17.1.1.1
          6 February 2022 at 8:45 am

          Simplicity soltka misses the nuances and hence the reality.

          Simplicity belongs in colouring books

    • solkta 17.2
      6 February 2022 at 7:56 am

      The 'English' [British] Crown no longer has sovereignty in New Zealand, how could they honour the Treaty? What could they do? Should the New Zealand Crown cede sovereignty back to the British Crown and then work forward from there? Sounds messy.

      • pat 17.2.1
        6 February 2022 at 8:14 am

        ???

        I believe QE2 is still our Head of State….though her successor may well not be.

      • vto 17.2.2
        6 February 2022 at 8:43 am

        The nz government is the crowns government silly. Most basic stuff.

        • solkta 17.2.2.1
          6 February 2022 at 8:45 am

          You are another one. Have a look at the link.

          • vto 17.2.2.1.1
            6 February 2022 at 8:48 am

            Yeah thanks for the pointer but I've read and studied as much as anyone

            • solkta 17.2.2.1.1.1
              6 February 2022 at 8:49 am

              Oh, so you have "read and studied as much as" the Rt Hon Sir Geoffrey Palmer and Rt Hon Dame Sian Elias. You have a good day too.

              • vto …
                6 February 2022 at 9:00 am

                Thanks I am having a good day.. about to saturate myself in sea-based activity..

                So that link… explains exactly my understanding.. nothing new.. and accounted for in my points..

                Now back to the actual issue/s

                • solkta …
                  6 February 2022 at 9:04 am

                  OK,

                  The 'English' [British] Crown no longer has sovereignty in New Zealand, how could they honour the Treaty? What could they do? Should the New Zealand Crown cede sovereignty back to the British Crown and then work forward from there? Sounds messy.

                  • vto …
                    6 February 2022 at 9:17 am

                    Lost in semantics…

                    Let me put it thus way to progress things… the non-maori party to te tiriti needs to honor the treaty.. then it needs fixing.

                    The reference to the English crown was a dig on my part to highlight historic grumbling with said English crown. But it was English crown who entered it. How could today's English crown honor te tiriti? Dont know. But they have an obligation

                    Onwards

                    • ghostwhowalksnz …
                      6 February 2022 at 9:26 am

                      Doesnt work that way. Under international law sucessor states replace the earlier treaty partners.

                      Soviet Union dissapeared and replaced by Russia in its treatys

                      The Crown Colony of New Zealand was replaced by the Dominion of NZ which still exists

                      Its all straightforward as Hobson proclaimed the Crown Colony and took sovereignty 1 Feb 1840 and the Treaty was signed on the 6th

                      All crown obligations were extinguished on transfer to the successor entity the Dominion

                      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colony_of_New_Zealand

                    • solkta …
                      6 February 2022 at 9:32 am

                      How could today's English crown honor te tiriti? Dont know. But they have an obligation

                      No they don't. The obligation is on the New Zealand Crown:

                      Rt Hon Dame Sian Elias: Well the Crown is the successor of the British Crown and the Queen Victoria, was of course a party to the treaty. So the Crown, the executive in New Zealand if you like is the is is the inheritor of the obligations that the Queen took on in 1840.

                      And if you don't know how the British Crown could 'honour the Treaty' then it is rather redundant to mention it.

                      And it is the British Crown. My Scottish heritage says fuck you.

                    • vto []
                      6 February 2022 at 9:47 am

                      Yes yes ghost and soltka i do understand the technical truths you both state.. but politics doesn't always follow the technicals, hence my descriptions and points.

                      And it is absolutely not redundant just because I personally don't have all the answers.. in life it is the question that is important.. an answer can always be found.. but so many can't get the question right, and get lost in semantics as here the whole point posed is now lost

                      Fuck the English crown.. and the Scottish crown.. says my own Scottish and Maori heritage..

                      Overlords can shrivel up and get eaten by the worms, all of them.. at least post-worm they have some use in earthly sustenance.

                      Gotta go now sorry.. the oceans calling..

                    • ghostwhowalksnz …
                      6 February 2022 at 9:40 am

                      Elias is wrong. Did you really believe in Judicial Infallability
                      It was an interview not a decision of the Supreme Court. Nice try at pulling the wool over eyes

                      De-colonisation is a thing , you old jacobite- How is old Franz Duke of Bavaria , and United Kingdom monarch

                    • solkta …
                      6 February 2022 at 9:55 am

                      How is she wrong? Is Palmer wrong too? Do you have a link to a constitutional legal expert to explain how they are wrong?

                    • ghostwhowalksnz …
                      6 February 2022 at 9:57 am

                      The interview of Dame Elias , which you cherry picked

                      https://natlib.govt.nz/he-tohu/korero/interview-with-dame-sian-elias

                      let me quote some other parts

                      But in fact the Crown is a most unhelpful metaphor. As one great English legal historian said, 'The Crown lives in the Tower of London.'

                      But when I use ‘the Crown’ I’m really talking about the executive government.

                      But of course its not ‘legal decision’ its just her musings.
                      I can see her point in the further commentary , not your ‘fileted slice’ presented as the weight of the law

                    • solkta …
                      6 February 2022 at 10:00 am

                      Still no idea what you think your point is?

                    • ghostwhowalksnz …
                      6 February 2022 at 10:43 am

                      I think it is you who doesnt know the point you want to make.

                      maybe , Im guessing, you think the Crown as a legal person in the descendants of the Guelfs/Welfs, Wettins and Windsors still is a legal partner to the Treaty ?

                    • solkta …
                      6 February 2022 at 11:07 am

                      The New Zealand Crown is the partner to the Treaty today. "The Crown" is essentially a metaphor for the executive of the New Zealand State. The "New Zealand Crown" can also include all branches of government in some usages/understandings. It's a fuzzy thing, but the point is is that it is a different separate fuzzy thing to the British Crown.

                      Rt Hon Sir Geoffrey Palmer: So you see, these ideas merge together, they become quite complicated and people don’t understand them. It's, it's not surprising.

                      I've tried, if you can't understand well i will have to leave it there.

                    • ghostwhowalksnz …
                      6 February 2022 at 11:16 am

                      'The Crown lives in the Tower of London.'

                      leave it at that.

  18. vto 18
    6 February 2022 at 8:46 am

    Simplicity soltka misses the nuances and hence the reality.

    Simplicity belongs in colouring books