How far has National really fallen?
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12:01 pm, January 28th, 2022 - 16 comments
Categories: Politics, polls -
Tags: colmar brunton
Because I love accurate comparisons and because the media typically do a shit job of looking at political polls, I decided that a look backwards to a comparable poll in the last parliament.
So One News – Colmar Poll from the start of the mid-term year – early Feb 2019, the election, and the latest poll.
| Date | Event | NAT | LAB | NZF | GRN | ACT | TOP | MRI | NCP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22–26 Jan 2022 | Poll | 32 | 40 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 Oct 2020 | 2020 election | 25.6 | 50.0 | 2.6 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| 15 Mar 2019 | Chch shootings | ||||||||
| 9–13 Feb 2019 | Poll | 42 | 45 | 3 | 6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.2 |
I left in the significiant event that occurred after the Feb 2019 poll because it saves explaining to the bewildered with Jacinda Derangement issues talking about Jacinda’s ‘luck’ about the actual sequence of events.
Obviously the significiant political shift at a polling level between the two polls.
- National dropped 10% over the last 3 years and Act went up by 10%.
- Labour dropped 5% and Greens went up by 3%.
- Generally the very small parties have increased a tad, but are still unlikely to gain seats in parliament.
- Nat/Act are now 43% rather than ~41% in Feb 2019
- Lab/Green are now 49% rather than 51% in Feb 2019
Overall it looks like the right are making very little headway in an overall goal of gaining the treasury benches. They have clearly just been shifting a lot of support from National to Act.
On the left, the Greens have made steady progress. Labour, as you’d expect from a second term governing party has been slowly dropping support – but little of it appears to going right.
I find the leader preferences tedious and usually irrelevant for overall results. I guess that the media need to get their talking points somewhere because they seem to have problems with understanding numbers. However for what it is worth…
| Leader | Feb 2019 | Jan 2022 |
| Jacinda Ardern | 41.8 | 35 |
| Christopher Luxon | ? | 17 |
| Simon Bridges | 5.0 | 0.4 |
| Judith Collins | 6.2 | 0.2 |
| David Seymour | ? | 6 |
I’d expect that most of the Luxon 13% rise is the usual honeymoon. However it only resulted in a party vote increase of 4% to National, probably mostly from a 3% drop to Act’s soft support. That kind of minimal translation of personal support to party support is pretty much what I’d expect from visible leadership.
What leadership counts in our parliamentary system is if a party house leadership can weld their caucus together in common cause. That is something that will take some time to show for a first term National MP catapulted into leadership. Especially since the National caucus and party organisation have had quite a few fractured years to get over.
Over the last 3 years, skipping all of the Covid-19 and Christchurch shootings, mostly what you can say from the polling numbers over the last 3 years is that National is severely diminished – their support appears to have mostly gone to Act.
But on a conservative/progressive balance – nothing much has changed over the last three years. As government lead, Labour has been slightly leaking support. But the real surprise is that the Greens as a smaller party associated with the government have been gaining support – that has been unusual since the first MMP parliament came in in 1996.
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- Budget 2023: More cost of living supportAt the heart of Budget 2023 is a cost of living package, designed to ease the pressure on New Zealanders in the face of global inflation and the challenges of rebuilding from extreme weather events. It provides practical cost of living relief across some of the core expenses facing Kiwis ...2 weeks ago
- Highlights of Budget 2023Budget 2023 delivers practical cost of living support for New Zealanders today and makes targeted investments to build a better future. ...2 weeks ago
- Greens welcome much needed investment but Labour can go further for Te Ao Māori & Pasifika in t...Today the Green Party’s Te Mātāwaka (Māori and Pasifika) caucus supported the 2023 Budget, but there’s still room for improvement. ...2 weeks ago
- Free prescriptions important step forwardThe Green Party is today welcoming free prescriptions. ...2 weeks ago
- Long-term commitment needed on public housingBudget 2023’s investment in public housing falls short of what’s needed. ...2 weeks ago
- ECE extension Green win nearly 10 years in the makingThe Green Party is today celebrating Budget 2023 funding extending free ECE to two year olds. ...2 weeks ago
- Green initiative addresses both climate and inequalityA long standing Green Party policy has been extended yet again in this year’s Budget. This will deliver warmer homes for thousands of people, lower power bills, and cut climate pollution. ...2 weeks ago
- Greens on board with more affordable buses and trainsThe Green Party is fully on board with free bus and train travel for under 12s and half price travel for under 25s - next stop, free travel for all under 18s, students, and apprentices. ...2 weeks ago
- Budget 2023 falls short of what’s neededToday’s Budget makes good progress on climate and inequality, but falls short of what’s needed to fix both. ...2 weeks ago
- Flood and Cyclone recovery package covers the basicsEarlier this week, the Prime Minister announced a billion dollar flood and cyclone recovery package as part of Budget 2023. This is about doing the basics - repairing and rebuilding what has been damaged and making smart investments, including $100 million of protection funding to ensure future events don’t cause ...2 weeks ago
- Bill to boost national fuel resiliency introduced
The Fuel Industry (Improving Fuel Resilience) Amendment Bill would: boost New Zealand’s fuel supply resilience and economic security enable the minimum stockholding obligation regulations to be adapted as the energy and transport environment evolves. “Last November, I announced a six-point plan to improve the resiliency of our fuel supply from ...10 hours ago - Faster ACC payment top-ups and fairer systemThe Government is making sure those on low incomes will no longer have to wait five weeks to get the minimum weekly rate of ACC, and improving the data collected to make the system fairer, Minister for ACC Peeni Henare said today. The Accident Compensation (Access Reporting and Other Matters) ...10 hours ago
- Compulsory code of conduct for school boards introducedA compulsory code of conduct will ensure school board members are crystal clear on their responsibilities and expected standard of behaviour, Minister of Education Jan Tinetti said. It’s the first time a compulsory code of conduct has been published for state and state-integrated school boards and comes into effect on ...13 hours ago
- Speech to the New Zealand Federation of Commercial Fishermen annual conference.Tena koutou katoa and thank you, Mayor Nadine Taylor, for your welcome to Marlborough. Thanks also Doug Saunders-Loder and all of you for inviting me to your annual conference. As you might know, I’m quite new to this job – and I’m particularly pleased that the first organisation I’m giving a ...14 hours ago
- Govt to support councils with buyout and better protection of cyclone and flood affected propertiesThe Government will enter into a funding arrangement with councils in cyclone and flood affected regions to support them to offer a voluntary buyout for owners of Category 3 designated residential properties. It will also co-fund work needed to protect Category 2 designated properties. “From the beginning of this process ...16 hours ago
- Government delivers changes to reduce pokies harmThe Government has announced changes to strengthen requirements in venues with pokie (gambling) machines will come into effect from 15 June. “Pokies are one of the most harmful forms of gambling. They can have a detrimental impact on individuals, their friends, whānau and communities,” Internal Affairs Minister Barbara Edmonds said. ...16 hours ago
- Government delivers 1800 additional frontline PoliceThe total Police workforce is now the largest it has ever been. Police constabulary stands at 10,700 officers – an increase of 21% since 2017 Māori officers have increased 40%, Pasifika 83%, Asian 157%, Women 61% Every district has got more Police under this Government The Government has delivered on ...16 hours ago
- Minister Mahuta talks Pacific ambitions at the first Korea-Pacific Leaders’ summitMinister of Foreign Affairs, Hon Nanaia Mahuta met with Korea President Yoon, as well as Pacific Islands Forum Secretary General Henry Puna, during her recent visit to Korea. “It was an honour to represent Aotearoa New Zealand at the first Korea – Pacific Leaders’ Summit. We discussed Pacific ambitions under the ...17 hours ago
- Government drives $2 billion of business research and developmentThe Government’s Research and Development Tax Incentive has supported more than $2 billion of New Zealand business innovation – an increase of around $1 billion in less than nine months. "Research and innovation are essential in helping us meet the biggest challenges and seize opportunities facing New Zealand. It’s fantastic ...1 day ago
- Achieving lift off: National Space Policy launchedThe next ‘giant leap’ in New Zealand’s space journey has been taken today with the launch of the National Space Policy, Economic Development Minister Barbara Edmonds announced. “Our space sector is growing rapidly. Each year New Zealand is becoming a more and more attractive place for launches, manufacturing space-related technology ...2 days ago
- New science and creative technologies wharekura announcedA new Year 7-13 designated character wharekura will be built in Pāpāmoa, Associate Minister of Education Kelvin Davis has announced. The wharekura will focus on science, mathematics and creative technologies while connecting ākonga to the whakapapa of the area. The decision follows an application by the Ngā Pōtiki ā Tamapahore ...2 days ago
- Freedom Camping changes a win for the environmentProtecting the environment by establishing a stronger, more consistent system for freedom camping Supporting councils to better manage freedom camping in their region and reduce the financial and social impacts on communities Ensuring that self-contained vehicle owners have time to prepare for the new system The Self-Contained Motor Vehicle ...2 days ago
- Speeding up the family court, reducing stress on familiesA new law passed last night could see up to 25 percent of Family Court judges’ workload freed up in order to reduce delays, Minister of Justice Kiri Allan said. The Family Court (Family Court Associates) Legislation Bill will establish a new role known as the Family Court Associate. The ...2 days ago
- UK FTA delivers benefits from todayNew Zealand businesses will begin reaping the rewards of our gold-standard free trade agreement with the United Kingdom (UK FTA) from today. “The New Zealand UK FTA enters into force from today, and is one of the seven new or upgraded Free Trade Agreements negotiated by Labour to date,” Prime ...2 days ago
- Next steps to reform outdated surrogacy lawThe Government will reform outdated surrogacy laws to improve the experiences of children, surrogates, and the growing number of families formed through surrogacy, by adopting Labour MP Tāmati Coffey’s Member’s Bill as a Government Bill, Minister Kiri Allan has announced. “Surrogacy has become an established method of forming a family ...2 days ago
- Defence Minister to attend Shangri-La DialogueDefence Minister Andrew Little departs for Singapore tomorrow to attend the 20th annual Shangri-La Dialogue for Defence Ministers from the Indo-Pacific region. “Shangri-La brings together many countries to speak frankly and express views about defence issues that could affect us all,” Andrew Little said. “New Zealand is a long-standing participant ...2 days ago
- New Zealand–China science relationship affirmedResearch, Science and Innovation Minister Dr Ayesha Verrall and the Chinese Minister of Science and Technology Wang Zhigang met in Wellington today and affirmed the two countries’ long-standing science relationship. Minister Wang was in New Zealand for the 6th New Zealand-China Joint Commission Meeting on Science and Technology Cooperation. Following ...3 days ago
- Supporting a strong future for screen sector5 percent uplift clearer and simpler to navigate Domestic productions can access more funding sources 20 percent rebate confirmed for post-production, digital and visual effects Qualifying expenditure for post-production, digital and visual effects rebate dropped to $250,000 to encourage more smaller productions The Government is making it easier for the ...3 days ago
- Minister Sepuloni to attend 61st Anniversary of Samoa’s IndependenceDeputy Prime Minister and Associate Minister of Foreign Affairs (Pacific Region) Carmel Sepuloni will represent New Zealand at Samoa’s 61st Anniversary of Independence commemorations in Apia. “Aotearoa New Zealand is pleased to share in this significant occasion, alongside other invited Pacific leaders, and congratulates Samoa on the milestone of 61 ...3 days ago
- Govt backs retailers with expansion of fog cannon programmeThe Government is continuing to support retailers with additional funding for the highly popular Fog Cannon Subsidy Scheme, Police and Small Business Minister Ginny Andersen announced today. “The Government is committed to improving retailers’ safety,” Ginny Andersen said. “I’ve seen first-hand the difference fog cannons are making. Not only do ...3 days ago
- Government will consider recommendations of Intelligence and Security Act reviewThe Government has received the first independent review of the Intelligence and Security Act 2017, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins says. The review, considered by the Parliamentary Intelligence and Security Committee, was presented to the House of Representatives today. “Ensuring the safety and security of New Zealanders is of the utmost ...4 days ago
- Govt expresses condolences on the passing of HRH Princess Sui’ilikutapuPrime Minister Chris Hipkins has expressed condolences on behalf of New Zealand to the Kingdom of Tonga following the death of Her Royal Highness Princess Mele Siu’ilikutapu Kalaniuvalu Fotofili. “New Zealand sends it’s heartfelt condolences to the people of Tonga, and to His Majesty King Tupou VI at this time ...4 days ago
- Govt expresses condolences on the passing of HRH Princess Siu’ilikutapuPrime Minister Chris Hipkins has expressed condolences on behalf of New Zealand to the Kingdom of Tonga following the death of Her Royal Highness Princess Mele Siu’ilikutapu Kalaniuvalu Fotofili. “New Zealand sends it’s heartfelt condolences to the people of Tonga, and to His Majesty King Tupou VI at this time ...4 days ago
- Security support to Solomon Islands extendedDefence Minister Andrew Little and Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta have today announced the extension of the New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) deployment to Solomon Islands, as part of the regionally-led Solomon Islands International Assistance Force (SIAF). “Aotearoa New Zealand has a long history of working alongside the Royal Solomon ...4 days ago
- Minister Mahuta to attend the first Korea-Pacific Leaders’ SummitForeign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta will travel to the Republic of Korea today to attend the Korea–Pacific Leaders’ Summit in Seoul and Busan. “Korea is an important partner for Aotearoa New Zealand and the Pacific region. I am eager for the opportunity to meet and discuss issues that matter to our ...5 days ago
- Agreement between Indo-Pacific partners for supply chain resilienceTrade and Export Growth Minister Damien O’Connor joined ministerial representatives at a meeting in Detroit, USA today to announce substantial conclusion of negotiations of a new regional supply chains agreement among 14 Indo-Pacific countries. The Supply Chains agreement is one of four pillars being negotiated within the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework ...5 days ago
- Celebrating Samoa Language Week 2023Our most spoken Pacific language is taking centre stage this week with Vaiaso o le Gagana Samoa – Samoa Language Week kicking off around the country. “Understanding and using the Samoan language across our nation is vital to its survival,” Barbara Edmonds said. “The Samoan population in New Zealand are ...5 days ago
- Nationwide test of Emergency Mobile Alert systemOver 90 per cent of New Zealanders are expected to receive this year’s nationwide test of the Emergency Mobile Alert system tonight between 6-7pm. “Emergency Mobile Alert is a tool that can alert people when their life, health, or property, is in danger,” Kieran McAnulty said. “The annual nationwide test ...5 days ago
- Whakatōhea and the Crown sign Deed of SettlementENGLISH: Whakatōhea and the Crown sign Deed of Settlement A Deed of Settlement has been signed between Whakatōhea and the Crown, 183 years to the day since Whakatōhea rangatira signed the Treaty of Waitangi, Minister for Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations Andrew Little has announced. Whakatōhea is an iwi based in ...6 days ago
- New Chair appointed to New Zealand National Commission for UNESCOElizabeth Longworth has been appointed as the Chair of the New Zealand National Commission for UNESCO, Associate Minister of Education Jo Luxton announced today. UNESCO is the United Nations agency responsible for promoting cooperative action among member states in the areas of education, science, culture, social science (including peace and ...6 days ago
- Tourism transformation starts with peopleTourism and hospitality employer accreditation scheme to recognise quality employers Better education and career opportunities in tourism Cultural competency to create more diverse and inclusive workplaces Innovation and technology acceleration to drive satisfying, skilled jobs Strengthening our tourism workers and supporting them into good career pathways, pay and working conditions ...7 days ago
- Tourism transformation starts with peopleTourism and hospitality employer accreditation scheme to recognise quality employers Better education and career opportunities in tourism Cultural competency to create more diverse and inclusive workplaces Innovation and technology acceleration to drive satisfying, skilled jobs Strengthening our tourism workers and supporting them into good career pathways, pay and working conditions ...7 days ago
- Te ao Māori health services cheaper and more accessible for whānauGreater access to primary care, including 193 more front line clinical staff More hauora services and increased mental health support Boost for maternity and early years programmes Funding for cancers, HIV and longer term conditions Greater access to primary care, improved maternity care and mental health support are ...7 days ago
- Te ao Māori health services more accessible for whānauGreater access to primary care, including 193 more front line clinical staff More hauora services and increased mental health support Boost for maternity and early years programmes Funding for cancers, HIV and longer term conditions Greater access to primary care, improved maternity care and mental health support are ...7 days ago
- Government’s work for survivors of abuse in care continuesThe Government continues progress on the survivor-led independent redress system for historic abuse in care, with the announcement of the design and advisory group members today. “The main recommendation of the Royal Commission of Inquiry’s Abuse in Care interim redress report was for a survivor-led independent redress system, and the ...7 days ago
- Humanitarian support for the Horn of AfricaAotearoa New Zealand is providing NZ$7.75 million to respond to urgent humanitarian needs in the Horn of Africa, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. The Horn of Africa is experiencing its most severe drought in decades, with five consecutive failed rainy seasons. At least 43.3 million people require lifesaving and ...1 week ago
- Two brand new mental health facilities opened in ChristchurchHealth Minister Ayesha Verrall has opened two new state-of-the-art mental health facilities at the Christchurch Hillmorton Hospital campus, as the Government ramps up its efforts to build a modern fit for purpose mental health system. The buildings, costing $81.8 million, are one of 16 capital projects the Government has funded ...1 week ago
- Government invests more than $24 million in regional projectsThe Government is continuing to invest in our regional economies by announcing another $24 million worth of investment into ten diverse projects, Regional Development Minister Kiri Allan says. “Our regions are the backbone of our economy and today’s announcement continues to build on the Government’s investment to boost regional economic ...1 week ago
- Budget 23 supports the growth of Māori tourismAn $8 million boost to New Zealand Māori Tourism will help operators insulate themselves for the future. Spread over the next four years, the investment acknowledges the on-going challenges faced by the industry and the significant contribution Māori make to tourism in Aotearoa. It builds on the $15 million invested ...1 week ago
- First Bushmasters ready to rollDefence Minister Andrew Little has marked the arrival of the first 18 Bushmaster protected mobility vehicles for the New Zealand Army, alongside personnel at Trentham Military Camp today. “The arrival of the Bushmaster fleet represents a significant uplift in capability and protection for defence force personnel, and a milestone in ...1 week ago
- The Friday Poem: ‘Carmine’ by Victoria Lewis
A new poem by Wellington poet Victoria Lewis. Carmine well – the cherries appeared quietly there on the kitchen bench as if to smile and say i love you, and you dared to forget those gleaming fruit form a prayer, a devotion bloody on the inside, taut on the out ...2 hours ago - Grattan on Friday: the PwC scandal should be ripe for the National Anti-Corruption Commission’s at...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra nitpicker/Shutterstock By coincidence, the furore around the consultancy firm PwC is raging just as the National Anti-Corruption Commission is gearing up for its start of business on July 1. The PwC scandal, ...5 hours ago - National MP apologises for saying Commerce Commission 'need a bullet'
National MP David Bennett has apologised for a comment made in Parliament where he said the "evil" Commerce Commission "need a bullet." ...7 hours ago - ‘Dismissed’: legal experts explain the judgment in the Ben Roberts-Smith defamation caseSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ricardo Villegas, Senior Lecturer of Law, University of South Australia Today, Federal Court Justice Anthony Besanko handed down his long-awaited judgment in the defamation case that Ben Roberts-Smith, Australia’s most decorated living former SAS soldier, brought against the Age, the Sydney Morning ...7 hours ago
- 'He's not worried about the pledge I made' – Auckland councillors hit back at m...Wayne Brown has named and attempted to shame councillors who oppose the sale of the council's airport shares, but some are returning fire, saying he does not have the votes to pass his plan. ...8 hours ago
- No fast answers for cyclone-affected properties
Some certainty has arrived for those impacted by severe weather events earlier this year but the bulk of the detail for a buyout scheme affecting at least 700 homes is a work in progress, writes political editor Jo Moir. Analysis: Cyclone Recovery Minister Grant Robertson has been determined since February ...9 hours ago - A win for the press, a big loss for Ben Roberts-Smith: what does this judgment tell us about defamat...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Rolph, Professor of Law, University of Sydney At the heart of the spectacular defamation trial brought by decorated Australian soldier Ben Roberts-Smith were two key questions. Had the Age, the Sydney Morning Herald and the Canberra Times damaged his reputation ...9 hours ago
- Want long-term contraception? There are more effective options than the pill. But they can be hard t...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deborah Bateson, Professor of Practice, University of Sydney Shutterstock Australians’ access to a range of contraceptive options depends on where they live and how wealthy they are. A recent parliamentary inquiry recommends ways to end this “postcode lottery” for people ...10 hours ago
- National brands Labour's Handmaid's Tale tweet as 'appalling'Labour's campaign chair is standing by a social media post which likens National's prescriptions policy to dystopian TV show and novel The Handmaid's Tale. ...10 hours ago
- Politics with Michelle Grattan: Liberal MP Bridget Archer urges other moderates to speak up as she p...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The Coalition’s decision to oppose the Voice to Parliament has put its moderate members in a jam. Some moderates are active yes advocates, while others are trying to keep low profiles. Bridget Archer, the outspoken ...11 hours ago
- Taxing Urea Better Than He Waka Eke Noa But Stronger Action Needed
Greenpeace Aotearoa is calling out the agriculture industry’s "undue influence" over the Government’s agricultural emissions policy, saying that " predatory denial and delay " have stalled the development of plans to price and reduce ...12 hours ago - South Auckland Fire Shows Risk Of Flock In Incinerator Proposal“The huge fire in South Auckland illustrates the serious human health risks of incinerating flock, the residual material left over from the scrap metal process. It is one reason we will be opposing the building of a waste incinerator in Te Awamutu ...12 hours ago
- Consultation opens on proposals to make online spaces saferThe Department of Internal Affairs (DIA) wants to make social media subject to regulation similar to that of traditional media platforms. ...12 hours ago
- The real cost of NZ’s two-tier health systemIt’s reassuring to think that by paying for private treatment you’re ‘freeing up a bed’ in a public hospital. But the reality is private beds don’t free up public beds, they replace them. Ethicists argue that healthcare is special. Unlike other consumer goods, its availability and accessibility should be based ...13 hours ago
- Mayor’s office says media ‘forced their way’ into budget speechThe office of mayor Wayne Brown has hit back at criticism journalists were “cherry-picked” for this morning’s budget announcement. A number of media outlets, including The Spinoff, Stuff, TVNZ and Newshub, were not invited to hear Brown’s budget address. Some, however, made it into the room after Brown had started ...13 hours ago
- The antithesis of healing: the AFL turns away from truth-telling again, ending Hawthorn investigatio...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Klugman, Research Fellow, Institute for Health & Sport, member of the Community, Identity and Displacement Research Network, and Co-convenor of the Olympic Research Network, Victoria University Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander readers are advised this article contains mention of the Stolen ...13 hours ago
- How raising tobacco taxes can save lives and cut poverty across the Asia-PacificSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sudyumna Dahal, PhD Student, Australian National University Shutterstock The human costs of tobacco and smoking worldwide are huge. 1.3 billion people use tobacco, mostly in low- and middle-income countries. More than 8 million people die prematurely because of tobacco, at ...13 hours ago
- Is This The Big Step Towards Making The Internet A Safer Place?Today, the Government released a discussion document: Safer Online Services and Media Platforms. It aims to reduce people’s exposure to harmful content, and create a system that is easier to navigate if people need to report harmful content. The ...13 hours ago
- ‘Hate speech laws 2.0’: Act wants to ‘kill’ proposed online safety rulesThe Act Party’s compared a proposal to improve online safety to the government’s doomed hate speech laws, and pledged to “kill” it off as well. Consultation is set to begin on a Department of Internal Affairs proposal to change how online content is regulated in New Zealand. But David Seymour ...13 hours ago
- Report Highlights Lessons For Public Organisations Supporting Improved Outcomes For MāoriA new report from the Auditor-General on four initiatives to improve outcomes for Māori has highlighted the importance of strong relationships between public organisations and Māori, and of taking the time needed to build these relationships. However, ...13 hours ago
- BSA Welcomes Consultation On Safer Online Services And Media PlatformsThe Broadcasting Standards Authority welcomes today’s launch of the public discussion document, Safer Online Services and Media Platforms, on a proposed new content regulation framework. The Authority has long been an advocate for a more flexible regulatory ...13 hours ago
- A new virtual museum reveals 600 million years of Australian fossils in unprecedented 3D detailSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alice Clement, Research Associate in the College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University Virtual Australian Museum of Palaeontology, Author provided Palaeontology is the study of evolution and prehistoric life, usually preserved as fossils in rocks. It combines aspects of geology ...14 hours ago
- Inclusive Aotearoa Collective Tāhono Response To Proposals In Safer Online Services And Media Platf...Inclusive Aotearoa Collective Tāhono welcomes the release of the Safer Online Services and Media Platforms report from Te Tari Taiwhenua, dealing with content regulation for media and social media. “We welcome the move to an independent regulator that ...14 hours ago
- TLDR: The proposed reform for safer media and online platformsThe drearily titled “Safer Online Services and Media Platforms” document has just been released. Here’s a TLDR summary from The Spinoff’s Shanti Mathias: The suggested changes are pretty different from what we have right now. All digital industries that publish content, including overseas companies like Meta and Google and local ...14 hours ago
- TLDR: The proposed reform for safer media and online platformsThe drearily titled “Safer Online Services and Media Platforms” document has just been released. Here’s a TLDR summary from The Spinoff’s Shanti Mathias: The suggested changes are pretty different from what we have right now. All digital industries that publish content, including overseas companies like Meta and Google and local ...14 hours ago
- How a new proposal could change online safety in New ZealandThe Safer Online Services and Media Platforms document has just been released by the government’s Content Regulatory Review. It does more than capitalise nouns – here’s what you need to know about what’s inside. What is this document with the world’s most boring name? It’s a proposal from the Department ...14 hours ago
- How a new proposal could change online safety in New ZealandThe Safer Online Services and Media Platforms document has just been released by the government’s Content Regulatory Review. It does more than capitalise nouns – here’s what you need to know about what’s inside. What is this document with the world’s most boring name? It’s a proposal from the Department ...14 hours ago
- Review: Hamilton (the musical) comes to AucklandThe 2010s musical theatre phenomenon has finally made it to Spark Arena. Does does it live up to the years of expectation? This Angelica Schuyler is transcendent Full disclosure: I am overly familiar with Hamiton without being a full-on Hamilstan. I’ve listened to the cast recording countless times, watched it ...15 hours ago
- Review: Hamilton (the musical) comes to AucklandThe 2010s musical theatre phenomenon has finally made it to Spark Arena. Does does it live up to the years of expectation? This Angelica Schuyler is transcendent Full disclosure: I am overly familiar with Hamiton without being a full-on Hamilstan. I’ve listened to the cast recording countless times, watched it ...15 hours ago
- Brown calls for councillor loyalty – and media to stay away
Members of the press being turned away from the door distracted from the announcement of asset sales and inflation-pegged rates in Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown’s final budget proposal Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown didn’t mince words at a fiery press conference this morning where he confirmed he’d be calling for a ...15 hours ago - NZ First Secured 1800 New Frontline Police – Not LabourDuring New Zealand First coalition negotiations our policy was to train and resource 1800 new frontline police. We secured this coalition policy win to ensure our streets had a police force that could tackle crime - after years of neglect. Remember those ...15 hours ago
- No, AI probably won’t kill us all – and there’s more to this fear campaign than meets the eyeSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Timothy Bennett, PhD Student, School of Computing, Australian National University Better Images of AI / Alan Warburton, CC BY-SA Doomsaying is an old occupation. Artificial intelligence (AI) is a complex subject. It’s easy to fear what you don’t understand. ...15 hours ago
- Education Minister Jan Tinetti to face questioning over contempt accusationEducation Minister Jan Tinetti will be questioned by senior MPs next week over whether she deliberately misled Parliament. ...15 hours ago
- Education Minister Jan Tinetti to face questioning over contempt accusationEducation Minister Jan Tinetti will be questioned by senior MPs next week over whether she deliberately misled Parliament. ...15 hours ago
- Cyclone recovery: About 700 properties likely too risky to rebuild – MinistersThe government and councils will offer a buyout option to property owners whose land is too risky to rebuild on, and co-fund protection works for those who need it. ...16 hours ago
- Buyout scheme announced for cyclone-hit homeownersThe government will work with councils to offer a “voluntary buyout” for owners of homes written off by Cyclone Gabrielle and other recent severe weather. About 700 category three properties – those where it’s deemed the risk of future severe weather cannot be sufficiently mitigated – are expected to be ...16 hours ago
- Brown’s Budget Proposal Holds Public Services HostageAuckland Mayor Wayne Brown’s proposed budget presents a dangerous false choice between cutting public services and privatising Auckland’s assets. The proposal to councillors offers to reinstate funding for public services and increase the pay ...16 hours ago
- Leaked DIA Consultation Document Reveals Major Proposal For Censorship Of Online SpeechA leaked consultation document from the Department of Internal Affairs (DIA) shows plans to draft and introduce legislation that would entirely restructure the New Zealand censorship regime, bringing online speech, such as material on social media ...16 hours ago
- And so we howl again, into the void: Where is Wayne Brown?A crucial day for the future of the city, and the mayor’s message to hundreds of thousands of Aucklanders: I don’t want to talk to you. Wayne Brown was right. The media is awash with drongos. I personally have behaved drongoistically – to borrow a Winstonism – at least twice ...16 hours ago
- Te Whatu Ora Listens To PSA And Enters Further Consultation On Big Health RestructureThe PSA is pleased Te Whatu Ora has listened to its concerns and is seeking further consultation with unions on a major restructuring as it seeks to remove duplication and centralise services. "This will be a huge relief for workers," said ...16 hours ago
- Did ‘wokeness’ cancel Police Ten 7? New research suggests racial stereotyping was the real culpr...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Antje Deckert, Associate Professor (Criminology), Auckland University of Technology Getty Images When TVNZ cancelled reality TV show Police Ten 7 earlier this year, it certainly rattled some law-and-order cages. The show’s former host Graham Bell, who described suspects variously ...17 hours ago
- Smaller power providers on top in new Consumer surveyA new survey from Consumer NZ has once again found customer’s prefer the country’s smaller power providers. For the third year in a row, Powershop has come out on top with a satisfaction score of 74% – the sixth time overall it has achieved the accolade. Frank Energy received a ...17 hours ago
- What is deep sea mining, and how could it alter a vital ecosystem?Applications to mine in the ocean could begin in July. Why are scientists and activists so concerned? Far from the light of the surface, animals are pale; some glow in the dense darkness, have translucent shells; grow very big or very small. Even the most comprehensive list of deep ocean ...17 hours ago
- Use Of Police Dog In Respect Of Two Men In WhanganuiThe Independent Police Conduct Authority has found that a Police dog handler was not justified in using his dog to bite a man who was resisting arrest but was justified in using the dog against a second man who threatened Police. At a Whanganui suburb ...17 hours ago
- How Ana Scotney gets it doneThe interdisciplinary artist from Te Whanganui-a-Tara shares all the mahi that happens behind the scenes. Ana (Ngāti Tāwhaki, Ngāi Tūhoe) has won multiple awards for her theatre work, and has been the recipient of the Te Tumu Toi New Zealand Arts Foundation Springboard Award, where she was mentored by ...18 hours ago
- Christchurch City Councillors Concerned About Tarras AirportSustainable Tarras (ST) supports today’s commitment from the new Christchurch City Holdings (CCHL) board seeking increased transparency and community engagement on the Tarras airport, as debated with Christchurch City Council (CCC) at today’s ...18 hours ago
- Hospice Faces Escalating Funding Crisis...18 hours ago
- “Animals Deserve Respect” – National Animal Rights Day This SundayThis Sunday, 4 June, Wellington and Christchurch will join over 300 cities worldwide in observing the National Animal Rights Day. The events remember the billions of animals who lose their lives each year due to human actions, and acknowledge the ...18 hours ago
- EDS Opposes Renewables PlanEDS has lodged its submission on “ Strengthening National Direction on Renewable Electricity Generation and Electricity Transmission ”, a consultation document prepared by the Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment and the Ministry ...18 hours ago
- Only ‘select’ media invited to council budget launchAuckland’s mayor snubbed most journalists from a morning launch of his new budget. While the Herald was among a select few allowed in the room, reporters from outlets like Stuff weren’t sent an invitation. In a story headlined “Wayne Brown snubs Stuff readers on major Auckland Council budget update”, a ...18 hours ago
- Gender And Ethnic Pay Gaps A Concern For Majority Of New Zealanders, Most Support Pay Transparency L...A nationwide poll on pay gaps shows nearly 2 out of every 3 New Zealanders consider pay gaps to be a ‘significant’ or ‘very significant’ issue (64%), with a similar number supporting new pay transparency policies to address the issue (63%). ...18 hours ago
- Help Me Hera: An acquaintance is in love with me and it’s making me uncomfortableI said we could still be friends but now I just want him to leave me alone. Want Hera’s help? Email your problem to [email protected] Dear Hera Towards the end of last year, I was surprised to see a university acquaintance from a different city – we’d had one tutorial together – at ...19 hours ago
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Love your assessment (of The Greens) lprent!
I concur.
Indeed a succinct overview that party strategists on all sides would benefit from. When I see the Nat leader preaching to the converted instead of swing-voters I interpret it as political advisors on holiday (at best) or complacency due to arrogance/entitlement.
I wonder if the new TOP leader will pull a rabbit out of his hat? I'm surprised they still hold 2% of the electorate – a sign that not all blue-greens are within National.
There's potential for ACT to operate as a significant handbrake on National now. Luxon has pulled back less than half those who shifted to ACT due to Seymour out-performing Collins, Muller & Bridges.
A chunk of luxons honeymoon bounce will be because he's not Collins or a beltway trougher…..yet.
It’s optics and not ability driven imo.
As I pointed out another thread, there is only a six point gap now between the right block and the left block.
So, only a three point swing required in the next 18 months to be on level pegging, which isn't a lot.
The past three years National has lost its way after Key and English left which left a bit of a power vacuum that has taken awhile to resolve itself. And Labour has had all the oxygen with Covid. So it has been a bit hard for opposition parties to make much headway.
But the next 18 months are going to be very interesting with inflation rocketing upwards and Omicron making people feel a bit less cosy.
Indeed. And noticeably absent over the past 3 or 4 years has been any major defections from the Labour caucus.
Which suggests that Jacinda, for all she's only a woman (!!) has a remarkably tight rein on her fellow MPs.
All a good sign – a united caucus.
Unless a new party is formed or an old one returns (NZF? unlikely) then the next election will be the first under MMP with no "pivot party" in the mix i.e. one that could support either Labour or National.
The Maori Party has been such a party in the past, and might keep their options open for maximum leverage. In theory the Greens could be too. But realistically, unless National under Luxon signal a major shift in their outlook (a big ask with the current ultra-conservative caucus), they aren't going to be acceptable to anyone except ACT.
So Luxon's task is harder than any previous National leader. Unlike Key he can't credibly say "Vote for a National government, we'll be in charge, don't worry about the irrelevant add-ons".
Luxon can't do this to ACT, for example:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/326503/Key-vetoes-Douglas-cabinet-post
Well, he could try!
I see the Greens as a pivot party, but the fulcrum isn't placed between Labour and National. If people vote strategically the pull to the left could be significant.
the Greens as a pivot party
Worth keeping in mind but the potential remains just that until suitable context arrives. National has hitherto been too stupid to factor that in. A culture shift within is the thing required to make it become feasible. Dunno if Luxon has what it takes.
Nor his advisors. No sign of intelligence as yet. The bluegreen card remains unplayed. Neanderthals in all directions…
One could argue the ‘bluegreen’ card is in Labour’s possession. That makes it difficult for the traditional right to let go of the ‘denialist voters’ card. Their only relevant criticism could be that Labour didn’t do eco-capitalism fast or hard enough.
I think Nicola Willis looks intelligent. Not trustworthy. Not empathetic or sympathetic. Not charismatic. But in possession of a few working synapses. Puts her way ahead of the rest of her party – but without a plausible policy platform it may not do her or the party much good.
Well it would impress me if she were to take the intiative in trying to improve their culture. Even just the initial shift out of stasis would suffice. Y'know how Thatcher took control off the guys in her party despite being in the heartland of the patriarchy? Just takes attitude, nerve, then being resolute.
The example she needs might be Hercules, not Maggie. That there is an Augean stables.
This is a shit analysis. The only date that counts is between election day 2020 and now, i.e a massive drop from the left, anything before that becomes mute because the public had its say and we start a fresh cycle. Trends are what is important
Would have expected better
I would agree. I wouldn't call the analysis as "shit" as it is accurate so far as it goes.
But more recent trends are more relevant than historical trends. In fact some analysis models allow weightings for this.
More relevant is the trend since July 2020. As Swordfish pointed out on the 27th in Daily Review, the left block has dropped from a lead of 21 to 6 in approx 18 months. A drop of 15. With about the same amount of time to run to the election, the trend would suggest the left block is in big trouble, if that trend continues.
The "Covid Election" narrative has all but disappeared of late. How strange with Omicron about to break out. The pandemic response could once again be the winning of the next election, if the incumbents maintain the kindness and caring they are likely to be rewarded again by an appreciative population. Even if it turns to custard for a while during the peak/s. The likely strategy of Nact to open up, with resulting sickness and death levels unacceptable and will not be forgotten.
Iirc Cunliffe got a new leadership boost of around 36-37% , Luxton has had nothing but positive media coverage bordering on salivating. He hasn't actually said anything much about the economy other the word economy and media says "he's so good on economic matters", I'm shocked he's not at 35% but also he's not any different than previous leaders just insert "angry reaction about today's announcement"
Luxtons biggest problem other than the fact he is an urban mp with an urban front bench trying to win back the regions is that he has to juggle regional, Urban, suburban, conservative, liberal, open everything up business wants with suburban and rural "shut the country down" wants, Pro vax , pro passport with anti vax anti passport, liberal conservatives with anti abortion religious conservatives.
If he says one thing in favor on one of those groups the other groups will ditch him. If he comes out in favor of vax and passports the anti vax and anti passport people ditch him. He's actually stuck between a rock and a hard place.
And if he does come out not too different from the govts position on vax and passports and Act goes all"freedumb" then centerists will take one look at act and go to labour. The greens may be annoying with their identity politics and woke madness but everyone knows labour won't really listen to them, Act the new incarnation is a different beast.
From what I can tell apart from the angry antivax most of the anger comes from passports (which is reasonable, they can't be a long term solution) OR labours absolute failure on housing and inequality, people want more not less, I hear rich people say benefits should be higher, never thought I'd hear that, so I don't see how the people that are angry that labour hasn't been labour enough are going to go and vote for a guy who wants house prices to go higher cos he's made millions a year off the increases. If anything I can see them going lefter.
I genuinely do wish there was more choice, I wish top and an alliance style party and even nzf were in parliament. Id rather those parties than act.