Do you feel lucky PREFU?

Written By: - Date published: 7:22 am, October 26th, 2011 - 72 comments
Categories: capitalism, debt / deficit, economy, national - Tags: ,

The PREFU paints a pretty dismal picture of the economy, as many commentators were quick to point out. Here’s Duncan Garner:

Pre-election fiscal update paints bleak picture

The Government has opened the books today in what’s called the pre-election update to give all the parties a look at the true state of the economy. None of it is particularly pretty …

Economic growth will average 3 percent for the next three years on the back of the rebuild – and it fails to peak at 4 percent like Treasury predicted in the budget.

This year’s $18.3 billion deficit will be wiped out within three years, and the Government says it hopes to post a $1.5 billion surplus by 2014/1015 – but only by doing some serious slashing in Government spending. It’s Bill English code for “cuts are coming”. “It’s really been in the last budget that we signalled fiscal tightening,” he says, “and over the next three years you will see a rapid fiscal tightening – the largest New Zealand has seen for some time.” …

So Mr English himself said today hopefully we can muddle through this talk of a second recession – hardly confidence-inspiring stuff.

Two things on slashing spending. (1) It makes things worse, not better. (2) It ignores the elephant in the room, that the government has the alternative option of raising its revenue (e.g. via increases in top tax brackets and broadening the tax base with a CGT, both Labour policies). That’s all business as usual under the Nats of course.  But for some truly scary reading, see Tracy Watkins:

Grim forecast for New Zealand’s finances

After Treasury opened the books on yet another gloomy forecast, it is tempting to ask whether things could get any worse. Well, yes, is the short answer. In a case study presented by Treasury in today’s Pre-election Fiscal Update (prefu) as one extreme scenario, we are caught in a downward spiral that ultimately results in the Government being so bust it can’t pay its bills. …

Under its downside scenario, a failure on the part of Governments to contain the Euro crisis, causes a severe disruption to global funding markets, and a prolonged period of “sub-potential growth” in the global economy. …

In the “one in five” downside scenario painted by Treasury, a protracted global recession sparked by the euro zone crisis, coupled with the limited ability of countries to support their economies through fiscal and monetary policy as they did in 2008, affects exports and tourism, leading to a rapid deterioration in the current account deficit, lower tax revenue and a $14.5 billion hole in tax revenue by 2016. Under this scenario, core crown debt also rises steeply, to 35 per cent of GDP in the year ending June 2016.

Treasury does not overstate the risk of this “downside to the downside” scenario occurring but notes: “Overall historic forecasting performance suggests that there is at least a one in five chance of an outcome worse than that captured in the downside scenario. Indeed there are a number of risks for the economy over and above those captured in the scenario.”

A one in five chance of a Eurozone crisis, which triggers a worst case scenario? I wonder if anyone in Treasury has been keeping an eye on the headlines recently:
Financial crisis has world teetering on the brink
As Greece faces default, where is Europe’s firewall?
Eurozone ‘is heading for recession’
Eurozone recession may have already started
Eurozone crisis is dragging UK into double-dip recession, warns Bank of England expert
Britain in grip of worst ever financial crisis, Bank of England governor fears
Crisis In Europe Puts Global Economy In Danger
Eurozone debt crisis: 5 days to save world economy from catastrophe
And on and on and on it goes. With all due respect to Treasury, their estimate of one in five odds looks like it was made with their heads stuck firmly in the sand. We should be preparing for the worst case scenario now. And we really can’t afford to leave it to these useless, unimaginative, slash and burn Nats to face this challenge.

72 comments on “Do you feel lucky PREFU? ”

  1. Add to that the $ 1.2 quadrillion in Derivatives which are on the verge of collapsing and you have to conclude that apart from John Key who knows damn well what is about to happen as he made his loot with this crap the rest of his government are living in Lala land.

    That and Don Brash getting our marching orders from both our English and American Financial overlords doesn’t bode well for this little country

  2. lefty 2

    When was treasury last within a bulls roar of being correct in their predictions?
    Not within living memory I suspect. They are always too optimistic.

    • Afewknowthetruth 2.1

      +10

    • Draco T Bastard 2.2

      They make their predictions on ideology and ignore the facts. If government policies equate to “free-market” principals then the forecast will be blindingly bright but if they don’t then the forecast will be pessimistic.

    • mik e 2.3

      in the Cullen years they were always under estimating growth

      • burt 2.3.1

        They kept doing that all the way into recession – gosh… how about that.

        • Draco T Bastard 2.3.1.1

          And now they’re always over-estimating growth. Gee, could it be that they all faithfully believe in the same failed policies of NAct?

          • burt 2.3.1.1.1

            Draco T Bastard

            Whatever they faithfully believed in during the Cullen years – they were right. Growth was lower than Cullen & Co said it would be. But it’s Treasury that make their predictions on ideology rather than facts – OK.

            • Colonial Viper 2.3.1.1.1.1

              Compared to National’s dark and economically depressed reign, Clark and Cullen oversaw a land of milk and honey.

              • burt

                I’ll just finish that for you;

                Compared to National’s dark and economically depressed reign, Clark and Cullen oversaw a land of milk and honey that sadly turned sour just before Labour secured their legendary fourth term.

                They sold you a pup CV, point to another time in NZ’s past when tax, spend and inflate the public service and increase middle earner welfare hasn’t ended in collapse. Perhaps it’s never been tried before….

                The recession as expected under the perfect productivity eroding aspects of low tax thresholds, high tax rates from relatively low levels of income and substantive and expanding mid-high earner welfare. Perfect storm, just needed an undisclosed mini budget and all would have been OK…

                Oh and Treasury are National lap dogs… yes we heard that all the way into recession last time, lets not take that punt again.

                • Colonial Viper

                  You’re a typical neoliberal.

                  Excusing the failures of a private sector which has been largely sold off overseas, and which can’t be bothered added value in NZ any more – just treating our land, water and people as mines to be exploited for the cheapest price possible.

                  Oh and Treasury are National lap dogs… yes we heard that all the way into recession last time, lets not take that punt again.

                  Treasury are neoliberal lap dogs who still believe in the failure which is Chicago school economics.

                  That is one government department which I agree should be broken up and half its staff fired.

                  • mik e

                    we should sell it off the worst performing govt dept although Treasury warned Key that SCF were putting one over the Govt National could put it under urgency[yeah right they did everything else under urgency] to close down SCF bailout because they thought it couldn’t be stopped bs.

                    • burt

                      yeah, sell them because they warned Labour that Labour polices would stunt growth and lead to recession and they were right. Shit ideology can’t beat reality so lets dismantle reality so ideology can win. year that will work. Glorious socialist state rules so we can all be poor but we will have the glorious ideology in tact and more importantly – the ideology will be unchallenged and never again proven to be a failure.

                • KJT

                  You really do live in an alternate Universe, don’t you Burt?

                  When all the evidence contradicts you. Accuse others of ideology.

                  Socialism worked well enough here.
                  http://kjt-kt.blogspot.com/2011/06/kia-ora-what-happens-if-decide-neo.html

                  And in Norway. And a few other Western European and South American countries.

                  Sweden has gone downhill since they started to head in the same suicidal direction as the USA and UK.

                  Belgium is currently doing better than the rest of Europe. They have no Government at present to impose the Neo-Liberal dogma generous payouts to those who caused the problem and austerity for everyone else.

                  You can even see it in the USA. High taxes and public banking States have weathered the recession much better than the States which have gone for austerity and subsidising the wealthy.

                  New Zealand has gone downhill further, faster than the rest of the OECD in almost all measures since falling for the Neo-Liberal makover much harder and faster than everyone else.

                  Australia did almost none of it. Their wages now 35% higher and increasing.

                  Labour relaxed the Neo-Liberal prescription a bit. Massive improvement in NZ.

                  NACT are re-imposing it. Recession continues as other countries recover. Borrowing and unemployment up. Equality and wages down.

                  We were told in the 80’s that pain now would result in gain later.

                  83% in productivity. 15% increase in wages. Investment in NZ business down by to 1/3 of pre-Rogernomics.

                  You can graph tax rates on wealth over the last 100 years, in almost any country, and see the almost exact correlation between high progressive tax rates and economic/social success. 91% in the USA certainly did not put a brake on their economy.

                  The most effective equal and prosperous economies ever! have been Democratic socialist mixed economies who look after all their people and sensibly regulate externalities.

                  What we need is higher taxes on wealth so it stays here and works for us.

            • Draco T Bastard 2.3.1.1.1.2

              Growth was lower than Cullen & Co said it would be.

              Strange, I recall larger surpluses and higher growth than predicted so have you got anything to back up that BS?

  3. ianmac 3

    Just heard the interview on Morning Report Simon Mercep with Phil Goff. Simon supplied all the excuses for National and scathingly challenged Phil to explain the solutions. This was followed by a soft interview with Bill English. Of course Bill was not asked the same solution question that was asked of Phil. Simon and Bill just reach agreement in a pally way. Thank goodness for fair interviews. Ha!

    • tc 3.1

      It’s the tone that speaks volumes, all aggressive and sneering at the non govt folk then all sweetness and light for govt ministers, so obvious.

      Yes and they’ve been following masters orders on the MMP referendum also, RNZ may as well be renamed RNACTNZ until checkpoint at least which seems the only show willing to front up with tough questions.

      • Colonial Viper 3.1.1

        Lets remember that this rot did not set in at RNZ (or TVNZ) in the last ~2 years only. LAB should have fucking dealt with it during their term.

  4. Jum 4

    Ianmac,

    You want ‘fair’ according to The Hollow Men’s rule book?

    Try Paul Holmes on Q and A talking up the National Auckland candidate every time Jacinda Ardern appeared. NActCon (National/Act/Conservative – new neo on the block) must be nervous about her and they’d be ‘right’ to be; Ardern’s streets ahead of the other one and not only in personality. Ardern thinks about the questions and then thoughtfully answers them.

    The Auckland NAct clone just parrots The Hollow Men’s rule book on how to obfuscate and lie.

    That’s the same from Key, English on down or up wherever you think Key and English deserve to be in the NActCon ranking.

    • Draco T Bastard 4.1

      The Auckland NAct clone just parrots The Hollow Men’s rule book on how to obfuscate and lie.

      There’s a documentary about this right-wing obfuscation called Spin. It’s dated now and US centric but well worth watching if you can find it.

  5. vto 5

    The Press this morning outlined the PREFU forecasts alongside the actuals for the last three years. For GDP growth, unemployment and deficits they were surprisingly consistent. Consistent in being 50% over-optimistic.

    PREFU itself has thus established a way to make accurate forecasts thanks to this consistency of theirs…. simply take their forecasts and have them or double them in the negative direction and voila, reality.

  6. prism 6

    This evening on Radionz there is a discussion on MMP with Jim Bolger Rich (freudian slip) Richardson Jeanette Fitzsimons and ?

    Ruth Richardson this morning spoke on RNZ on the advantages of FPP. She used many cliches as would be expected from someone who appears to have had a lengthy period of indoctrination. With FPP you get ‘a broad church’ blah blah. Certainty blah blah. The problem with we humans is how we can weave an invisible armour from our words and arguments that isolate us from reality and its likely consequences.

    And what is holding NZ back from stability and prosperity? Could it be our exchange rate setting method? As soon as NZ does well and makes some money the currency speculators are onto us like fleas sucking on a cat. And of course our part in the worldwide western countries abandonment of their own people in the tactile industries to over-populated countries offering poor people prepared to work for existence wages.

    And the money we have to borrow each week – is that to pay our dues on overseas investors’ kindly input into our country’s business activities? I must try and find what assessment there is of how much passes out annually to distant landlords and investors or remains as liability.

    • Colonial Viper 6.1

      And the money we have to borrow each week – is that to pay our dues on overseas investors’ kindly input into our country’s business activities? (A) I must try and find what assessment there is of how much passes out annually to distant landlords and investors or remains as liability. (B)

      (A) You’ll find there is a net new debt per month figure which is new debt the Government is taking on. Then there is a total borrowed figure per month which is higher because it includes new borrowing purely to pay off old loans coming due. Yes, that really is paying off one credit card with another.

      (B) I believe the balance of payments (current account) statistics gives a clue to this. Usually sits negative at between 3% and 10% of GDP depending on how much our farmers and other exporters are bringing in, and how much our foreign owned banks and corporations are simultaneously pumping out.

  7. queenstfarmer 7

    Two things on slashing spending. (1) It makes things worse, not better.

    The biggest stimulus in history did make things worse. Krugman’s ideological, academic theories have failed. This is reality. And where do you propose teetering countries will get all this extra money to crank up their spending, in order to magically spend their way back to prosperity?

    (2) It ignores the elephant in the room, that the government has the alternative option of raising its revenue (e.g. via increases in top tax brackets and broadening the tax base with a CGT, both Labour policies)

    Fortunately, sane people realise that raising taxes in a recession (in order to “stimulate” the economy, no less) will only make matters worse (I note Labour’s policy this election includes borrowing to fund tax cuts). As for Labour’s CGT “raising revenue”, even Labour itself admits this will take 10 years to fully kick in – if it does at all – and of course it is premised on having capital gains (which it happily ignored for 9 years despite actively fueling the housing bubble and crash), which certainly isn’t likely in the scenarios you think we should be preparing for.

    • r0b 7.1

      The biggest stimulus in history did make things worse

      Bailing out the bankers that caused the problems is not “stimulus”.

      Fortunately, sane people realise that raising taxes in a recession (in order to “stimulate” the economy, no less) will only make matters worse

      Historically the times of highest taxation have also been the times of highest growth.

      • queenstfarmer 7.1.1

        Bailing out the bankers that caused the problems is not “stimulus”.

        Not talking about bailing out banks. Check out the list here (and of course there is much, much more since then):
        https://www.propublica.org/special/the-stimulus-plan-a-detailed-list-of-spending

        Historically the times of highest taxation have also been the times of highest growth

        I would say citation needed, but this is a different point (it’s obvious that an economy undergoing strong growth will sustain higher taxes.) The relevant point is that putting up taxes in a recession is unwise. Barack Obama knows this:

        The last thing you want to do is raise taxes in the middle of a recession, because that would just suck up, take more demand out of the economy and put businesses in a further hole

        Although he is now taking an ideological position due to the election, his comment is correct.

        • prism 7.1.1.1

          The last thing you want to do is raise taxes in the middle of a recession, because that would just suck up, take more demand out of the economy and put businesses in a further hole

          Depends if the taxes are sucking up excess liquidity to that required by that individual or his service to the basic economy through his choice of positioning of that cash. Then if the excess is not advantaging the economy, the higher tax can be used to support the economy in ways that will provide jobs and increase wage earners and so decrease unemployment and waste of human resources, both in unused productivity and in excessive drinking, drugs and other destructive ways of passing unwanted spare time.

        • r0b 7.1.1.2

          Not talking about bailing out banks. Check out the list here

          That’s hardly the biggest stimulus package in history.  I haven’t done the math, but clearly (for example) the New Deal and (given the bizarre way that we measure these things) WW2 were much bigger.

          The Obama stimulus package is too little too late, and I’d be interested (when I have more time) to dig in to it and find out how much of it was just rebranding existing spending (as the Nats have done in NZ).  None the less it has had significant positive effects (CBO = Congressional Budget Office, ARRA = American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009):

          CBO’s Estimates of ARRA’s Impact on Employment and Economic Output

          Looking at recorded spending to date as well as estimates of the other effects of ARRA on spending and revenues, CBO has estimated the law’s impact on employment and economic output using evidence about the effects of previous similar policies on the economy and using various mathematical models that represent the workings of the economy. On that basis, CBO estimates that in the second quarter of calendar year 2010, ARRA’s policies:

          • Raised the level of real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) by between 1.7 percent and 4.5 percent,

          • Lowered the unemployment rate by between 0.7 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points,

          • Increased the number of people employed by between 1.4 million and 3.3 million, and

          • Increased the number of full-time-equivalent (FTE) jobs by 2.0 million to 4.8 million compared with what those amounts would have been otherwise. (Increases in FTE jobs include shifts from part-time to full-time work or overtime and are thus generally larger than increases in the number of employed workers.)

          But too little to late – dwarfed by the useless banking bailouts.

           I would say citation needed

          On the historical relationship between tax and growth see stuff summarised here.

          Edit: I see PB covered much of this already!

          • queenstfarmer 7.1.1.2.1

            The Obama stimulus package is too little too late… None the less it has had significant positive effects

            No-one is denying that spending vast sums of money has some positive effects. If I borrow and spend $10,000 I can’t afford on a party, pretty much everyone will have a great time, and the bar owner will be pretty pleased.

            • Colonial Viper 7.1.1.2.1.1

              irrelevant example.

              Your example is based on dumb consumerism, not on creating productive infrastructure for the economy or the country.

        • Draco T Bastard 7.1.1.3

          (it’s obvious that an economy undergoing strong growth will sustain higher taxes.)

          It’s been linked on here before. After controlling for for as much as possible, growth has always come after tax increases and government spending.

          Barack Obama knows this:

          Obama is an idiot and is just saying what he’s told.

          Although he is now taking an ideological position due to the election, his comment is correct.

          No, it isn’t.

          • queenstfarmer 7.1.1.3.1

            Obama is an idiot and is just saying what he’s told.

            I think Obama’s pretty smart, but politically naiive. But anyway, who told him what to say (presumably his comment I posted above), and when?

            • Colonial Viper 7.1.1.3.1.1

              What Obama wants or how smart he is, is irrelevant. Geithner, Summers, Bernanke etc. were the ones setting the real agenda and pulling the real strings.

        • Ari 7.1.1.4

          You should look at what happens when spending is cut in a recession, instead of focusing so much on tax, especially seeing the tax increases proposed would target people who aren’t spending anyway.

        • KJT 7.1.1.5

          Putting up taxes in a recession is wise, if it redirects spending from Hawaii holidays, gambling on US derivatives and making the already wealthy richer, to people who spend all their money locally.

          From election bribes to NACT voters to people who spend and invest in local business.

          The US stimulus was misdirected because it did not go to those who spend and invest in local production.

          As Angela Merkal said to some dopey British politician, who wondered why Germany was doing so much better. “We still make things”.

        • mik e 7.1.1.6

          Q st you obviously haven’t studied much economics go back to the thirties and see the difference between economies that did the right thing and the economies that stagnated and stayed in recession.You will find in NZ that from 1924 till the first labour govt our country was built on debt by right wing governments that were concentrating on Public works just like national is doing now.In the 2000s Funny there was the prediction from treasury that increasing taxes on the better off and increasing the minimum wage would slow down the economy it never happened quite the reverse.

        • mik e 7.1.1.7

          yes qsf you have it wrong again highly taxed states in the US out perform low and flat tax states by a wide margin all low taxed states are in recession sort of blows your theory out the window .George w bush was the first to print and bail out large amounts trillions to be exact at least Obama has kept some industrial capacity for with out it the US would no longer be a super power.Why these sort of bailouts don’t work is that the stimulus is ending up at the top of the food chain instead of going into the main street its going to wall street same reason depression hung around the US 29to38 but opposite solutions only partly effective Nationalizing the banks is a cheaper better value for money option for taxpayer bail outs .Because those banks still give massive bonuses for speculation investments when stimulus needs to be in the productive export sector.Failing banks were let go to the wall in the US NZ we nationalized and stimulated main street and not wall st in that era thats why we came out of recession earlier than other economies.National are copying the same policies as the mid 1920s to early thirties public works schemes , tax cuts for the well off Austerity programs for everyone else keep wage down. same result stagnant economy!it didn’t work then its not working now!

      • Simon Poole 7.1.2

        “Historically the times of highest taxation have also been the times of highest growth.”

        While I am not impressed with National’s solution to the problem, I do wonder if you are putting the horse before the cart with that one, r0b.

        • Pascal's bookie 7.1.2.1

          On tax burdens and economic growth:

          http://www.presimetrics.com/blog/?p=92

          On the size of the StimPak:

          http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/18/AR2010061803289.html

          On the success of it:

          http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=967

          On this:

          “Krugman’s ideological, academic theories have failed.”

          Citation very much needed, specifically, Krugman endorsing the size shape and implementation of the stimpak and predicting that it would be just what we needed and something like a roaring success. From memory he panned the package and predicted pretty much what happened.

          • Simon Poole 7.1.2.1.1

            PB: Interesting link, cheers. I’ll try and take a closer look at home.

            My main point was that just because we have a history of high growth with high tax rates we can’t assume that raising taxes will increase our growth. I think our solution has to be considerably more nuanced than that, otherwise we might as well just introduce a 90% top bracket and be done with it, yes?

            I think the CGT idea is important to introduce, but it will not be a major source of tax revenue for some time which Labour have duly acknowledged.

            Unfortunately we have a government that is unwilling to engage in a constructive debate about the structural problems facing government finances (which were considerably worsened by a series of ill-considered tax cuts in the last three years).

            • Bored 7.1.2.1.1.1

              Reading the whole thread above what stands out starkly to me is the continuing faith in “growth” as the panacea. We will in future have growth and contraction BUT as Heinberg so eloquently points out total world wide aggregate growth is now going into decline.

              The basis for the decline is that the total available world energy supply has peaked, the availability of other resources that we can plunder is at breaking point. Numbers on conjured on finance companies balance sheets do not equate to growth, neither does a housing price bubble. Its down to resource availability and consumption. That and that alone, we do not live in a “virtual” world, the sooner we realise we live on a limited resource sphere the better.

              A more intelligent debate would focus around how to manage the decline and how to ensure that the available resources and wealth are equitably and effectively distributed.

          • queenstfarmer 7.1.2.1.2

            “Krugman’s ideological, academic theories have failed.”

            Citation very much needed

            Yes Krugman did pan the “stimulus”, because he wanted it to be even bigger (drowning the US in the biggest debt in its history just isn’t enough, apparently). I’m sure no amount of Govt expansion would be too much in his view – he’d probably complain that the Soviet Union was too laissez faire.

            It’s his Keynesian theories that have demonstrably failed. Even President Obama has admitted that the US is no better off, and in fact has much higher unemployment, than pre-“stimulus”. The biggest change is being saddled with record debt.

            • Pascal's bookie 7.1.2.1.2.1

              None of that proves Krugman wrong, though your bluster about what you imagine would satisfy him (the soviet union? really qs?) does seem to show that you don’t know much about Krugman’s work.

              For him to have been proven wrong you would need to show that the stimpak that was passed was what he wanted, that he predicted it would work, and that it didn’t. You don’t seem able to show these things, but instead rely on bluster. Any particular reason for that?

              What the record seems to show is that he said it was badly designed, too small, and would only have a weak effect.

              • queenstfarmer

                You’re reading it wrong. I never made any suggestion about “proving Krugman wrong”, just observed that his theories have demonstrably failed. As I already said, the stimulus wasn’t big enough for Krugman (incredulously), which of course gives him wriggle-room to deny being wrong on that specific point. Which he is free to deny.

                • Colonial Viper

                  Pointless and irrelevant.

                  What is on point is that the entire financial system is now rigged solely as a bonus generating machine for Wall St banking executives.

                  Time to take our economy back from the 0.1%

                • Pascal's bookie

                  Perhaps you could explain the difference between proving someone wrong, and proving that their theories have failed, I’m not seeing one.

                  The fact remains that to demonstrate that someone’s theory has failed, you need to show that the theory has been applied, and not worked.

                  Krugman didn’t get the stimpak he wanted, (and his critiques of it were as much about the form it took as of it’s size) and he predicted that it would only be of minor benefit. That prediction seems to have stacked up pretty well. particularly in comparison to many of his critics who predicted hyperinflation and rapidly rising bond rates.

            • Pascal's bookie 7.1.2.1.2.2

              Oh, and the stimpak is pretty much insignificant as a part of the US debt problem:

              http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/24/opinion/sunday/24sun4.html

            • Ari 7.1.2.1.2.3

              LOL Keynesian theories being failed, pull the other one, what kind of economists do you think have it right? The ones working from Hayek?

              • queenstfarmer

                Who says anyone has the “dismal science” right? Unless you have a time machine, no-one knows for certain whether a less profligate stimulus would have caused less, or maybe even more, damage than what has been tried.

                • Colonial Viper

                  Then what are you on about.

                  There are US$400T to $600T of outstanding, off balance sheet derivatives in the world financial system today.

                  That’s what is going to fuck us. Weapons of mass financial destruction.

                  Arguing over $0.8T of Main St economic stimulus more or less is pointless and irrelevant.

                • Pascal's bookie

                  You should really read the links people are posting, this one deals with the profligacy of the stimulus.

                  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/18/AR2010061803289.html

                  Short version; although there was a federal stimulus package, at the state level there was fiscal contraction. This meant that overall the amount of govt stimulus was nowhere near as large as what the headline stimpak figure would have you believe.

                  If you are going to argue that the results of this particular stimpak tell you something definitive about the effectiveness of govt stimulus generally, that is something you absolutely have to take into account.

                  Though I am suspecting, once again, that you are not particularly interested in actual facts.

                  Your argument appears to be the ideological response you accuse Krugman of.

        • aerobubble 7.1.2.2

          Money is like blood in a body, it carries oxygen. But govt does not oxygenate
          the blood, it merely insures the vitality of the blood and how much there is.
          Problem, thatcherism expanded the money supply in response to a glut of
          cheap high density fuels. Like they didn’t know it would run dry!!!

          Of course they all did, that’s why we have politicians, too few, too stupid,
          who can look cluesless and often are. Now all I want to know is who
          wins. In a world of economic hurt, who wins? who loses?

          Simple, those who have most to lose, and everyone who wins is in the
          larger group. As can be seen in Libya, sure the dictator can survive
          for a long time but the nation goes backwards. We as a world cannot
          afford a dictator, so its obvious who the losers will be.

          All being obvious National should lose in a landslide.Will it happen
          next month or three years?

    • AAMC 7.2

      QSF, please correct me if I’m wrong, wasn’t it the free marketeers Greenspan, Bernanke & Paulson who “stimulated” their banking buddies?

      Krugman endorsed stimulus, please point me to where he endorsed TARP!?

      • queenstfarmer 7.2.1

        See the list I linked to @ 10.13 above. Plenty of other resources showing the direct stimulus programs (which, as you note, Krugman endorsed – albeit he apparently wanted much more of it).

        I don’t know about his view on TARP, but having just googled it he says here that it is “worth passing”. We can decide for ourselves whether or not that is an endorsement.

        • Colonial Viper 7.2.1.1

          qstf still backing the huge money printing exercises which gave banks trillions and Main St nothing.

          That’s what you are calling “stimulus” i.e. stimulus for Jamie Dimon and Lloyd Blankfein’s bankster bonuses.

          • queenstfarmer 7.2.1.1.1

            Complete rubbish, CV. Show me where I said that. You seem to making up a lot of crap recently.

            • Colonial Viper 7.2.1.1.1.1

              you love rubbishing the ineffectiveness of the ‘stimulus’.

              While ignoring the fact that the vast bulk of new stimulus money in the system has been punped into Wall St, not Main St.

              Time for a full scale global debt jubilee, and the cancelling of all dark pool derivatives contracts.

              • queenstfarmer

                Yes, I’m merely observing the empirical evidence that the stimulus programme has failed.

                As for stimulus, I am damn opposed to money printing exercises, corporate bailouts, corporate welfare, corporate tax loopholes, giving taxpayer money to bankers, or any other such shenanigans. Big time capitalists should live by the sword and die by the sword. And if a great many are about to die (in a capitalist sense), then good riddance. And may the authorities prosecute any wrongdoers to the full extent of the law. And kudos to the Govt for finally tightening up the wet-bus ticket securities law that successive govts left languishing for 30+ years.

  8. joe90 8

    http://problembanklist.com/fdic-to-cover-losses-on-trillion-bank-of-america-derivative-bets-0419/

    Potential losses on Bank of America’s massive $75 trillion book of risky derivative contracts has just been dumped onto the FDIC by the Federal Reserve.

    • Colonial Viper 8.1

      Awful. Losing casino bets taken by Bank of America have now been made the problem of the US tax payer.

      In US law, derivatives liabilities must be paid out before savings depositors losses.

      Go figure.

  9. AAMC 9

    @Blingglish – StIglitz Says Austerity Is ‘Suicide Pact’ for Major Economies is.gd/wH1wyL

    • mik e 9.1

      Joe 90 it says Derivatives from Merrill Lynch are so complicated that they cannot be real, [ponzi] using currency trading and hedging derivatives that no doubt John Key Knew about and still knows more than any other kiwi, these are highly toxic derivatives Gambling in disguise with bets on and no way to pay.The word is fraudulent behaviour!

  10. Pascal's bookie 10

    Another couple of interesting links here:

    John Quiggin, tearing apart some ‘expansionary austerity’ work:

    http://crookedtimber.org/2011/10/24/expansionary-austerity-some-shoddy-scholarship/

    and Henry Blodgett reflecting on Krugman’s record after raving lefty David Frum, said

    Imagine, if you will, someone who read only the Wall Street Journal editorial page between 2000 and 2011, and someone in the same period who read only the collected columns of Paul Krugman. Which reader would have been better informed about the realities of the current economic crisis? The answer, I think, should give us pause. Can it be that our enemies were right?

    http://www.businessinsider.com/david-frum-paul-krugman-right-2011-10#ixzz1bpkF6cK6

  11. Why was the original post pulled?

    [lprent: The post is pretty much the same as when I saw it this morning (and pushed it to the top). The edits look like typos.

    Perhaps you mean this old one? You know that when they get released from the top they drop down to their date/time position. ]

  12. Draco T Bastard 13

    The Government has opened the books today in what’s called the pre-election update to give all the parties a look at the true state of the economy.

    The big question that needs to be asked is:Why do we only get to see the true state of the economy once every three years?

  13. Bored 14

    I posted above about the true state of the economy…no takers, they are all caught in mainstream fantasy mode. So to answer you question:
    * do we need to know what the idiots think at all even every three years?
    * dont you think they might just discover reality within three years and be worth listening to??? (Obviously not).
    * why have we been paying these goat entrail readers anything at all for the last three years?

    • aerobubble 14.1

      Nationall says dairy saves us, yet now we’re told a collapse of markets
      will hurt diary…. …why did National declare we’re safe…
      …no downgrade promised Key… …double downgrade!!!

      National are either idiots or take us for…

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Sunday Morning Chat
    After a busy week it’s a good day to relax. Clear blues skies here in Tamaki Makaurau, very peaceful but for my dogs sleeping heavily. In the absence of a full newsletter I thought I’d send out a brief update and share a couple of posts that popped up in ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 hours ago
  • The Book of Henry
    Now in the land of Angus beef and the mighty ABsWhere the steaks were juicy and the rivers did run foulIt would often be said,This meal is terrible,andNo, for real this is legit the worst thing I've ever eatenBut this was an thing said only to others at the table,not ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 hours ago
  • Fact Brief – Is ocean acidification from human activities enough to impact marine ecosystems?
    Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park in collaboration with members from the Skeptical Science team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Is ocean acidification from human ...
    17 hours ago
  • Happiness is a Warm Gun
    She's not a girl who misses muchDo do do do do do, oh yeahShe's well-acquainted with the touch of the velvet handLike a lizard on a window paneI wouldn’t associate ACT with warmth, other than a certain fabled, notoriously hot, destination where surely they’re heading and many would like them ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    23 hours ago
  • Still doing a good 20
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past somewhat interrupted week. Still on the move!Share Read more ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 day ago
  • Coalition of the Unwilling?
    What does Budget 2024 tell us about the current government? Muddle on?Coalition governments are not new. About 50 percent of the time since the first MMP election, there has been a minority government, usually with allied parties holding ministerial portfolios outside cabinets. For 10 percent of the time there was ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    2 days ago
  • Of red flags and warning signs in comments on social media
    Somewhat surprisingly for what is regarded as a network of professionals, climate science misinformation is getting shared on LinkedIn, joining other channels where this is happening. Several of our recent posts published on LinkedIn have attracted the ire of various commenters who apparently are in denial about human-caused climate change. Based ...
    2 days ago
  • All good, still
    1. On what subject is Paul Henry even remotely worth giving the time of day?a. The state of our nationb. The state of the ACT partyc. How to freak out potential buyers of your gin palace by baking the remains of your deceased parent into its fittings2. Now that New ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • The looting is the point
    Last time National was in power, they looted the state, privatising public assets and signing hugely wasteful public-private partnership (PPP) contracts which saw foreign consortiums provide substandard infrastructure while gouging us for profits. You only have to look at the ongoing fiasco of Transmission Gully to see how it was ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • The Illusion of Power: How Local Government Bureaucrats Overawe Democratically-Elected Councillors..
    The Democratic Façade Of Local Government: Our district and city councillors are democratically elected to govern their communities on one very strict condition – that they never, ever, under any circumstances, attempt to do so.A DISINTEGRATION OF LOYALTIES on the Wellington City Council has left Mayor Tory Whanau without a ...
    2 days ago
  • Lowlights & Bright Spots
    I can feel the lowlights coming over meI can feel the lowlights, from the state I’m inI can see the light now even thought it’s dimA little glow on the horizonAnother week of lowlights from our government, with the odd bright spot and a glow on the horizon. The light ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 14-June-2024
    Another week, another roundup of things that caught our eye on our favourite topics of transport, housing and how to make cities a little bit greater. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday, Connor wrote about Kāinga Ora’s role as an urban development agency Tuesday’s guest post by ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    2 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to June 14
    Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers features co-hosts and talking with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent about the National-ACT-NZ First Government’s moves this week to take farming out of the ETS and encourage more mining and oil and ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • Climate policy axed in broad daylight, while taxpayer liabilities grow in the dark
    In 2019, Shane Jones addressed the “50 Shades of Green” protest at Parliament: Now he is part of a government giving those farmers a pass on becoming part of the ETS, as well as threatening to lock in offshore oil exploration and mining for decades. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Here’s the ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • Rage Bait!
    Hi,Today’s newsletter is all about how easy it is to get sucked into “rage bait” online, and how easy it is to get played.But first I wanted to share something that elicited the exact opposite of rage in me — something that made me feel incredibly proud, whilst also making ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    2 days ago
  • Bernard's Dawn Chorus and pick 'n' mix for Friday, June 14
    Seymour said lower speed limits “drained the joy from life as people were forced to follow rules they knew made no sense.” File Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: My six things to note in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Friday, June 14 were:The National/ACT/NZ First ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • Friendly but frank talks with China Premier
    It sounded like the best word to describe yesterday’s talks between Chinese Premier Li Qiang and his heavyweight delegation of Ministers and officials and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and New Zealand Ministers and officials was “frank.” But it was the kind of frankness that friends can indulge in. It ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    2 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #24 2024
    Open access notables Wildfire smoke impacts lake ecosystems, Farruggia et al., Global Change Biology: We introduce the concept of the lake smoke-day, or the number of days any given lake is exposed to smoke in any given fire season, and quantify the total lake smoke-day exposure in North America from 2019 ...
    3 days ago
  • Geoffrey Miller: China’s message to New Zealand – don’t put it all at risk
    Don’t put it all at risk. That’s likely to be the take-home message for New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon in his meetings with Li Qiang, the Chinese Premier. Li’s visit to Wellington this week is the highest-ranking visit by a Chinese official since 2017. The trip down under – ...
    Democracy ProjectBy Geoffrey Miller
    3 days ago
  • The Real Thing
    I know the feelingIt is the real thingThe essence of the soulThe perfect momentThat golden momentI know you feel it tooI know the feelingIt is the real thingYou can't refuse the embraceNo?Sometimes we face the things we most dislike. A phobia or fear that must be confronted so it doesn’t ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on how moderates empower the political right
    Struth, what a week. Having made sure the rural sector won’t have to pay any time soon for its pollution, PM Christopher Luxon yesterday chose Fieldays 2024 to launch a parliamentary inquiry into rural banking services, to see how the banks have been treating farmers faced with high interest rates. ...
    3 days ago
  • Bernard's Dawn Chorus and pick 'n' mix for Thursday, June 13
    In April, 17,656 people left Aotearoa-NZ to live overseas, averaging 588 a day, with just over half of those likely to have gone to Australia. Photo: Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: My six things to note in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Thursday, June 13 ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Our guide to having your say on the draft RLTP 2024
    Auckland’s draft Regional Land Transport Plan (RLTP) 2024 is open for feedback – and you only have until Monday 17 June to submit. Do it! Join the thousands of Aucklanders who are speaking up for wise strategic investment that will dig us out of traffic and give us easy and ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    3 days ago
  • The China puzzle
    Chinese Premier Li Qiang arrives in Wellington today for a three-day visit to the country. The visit will take place amid uncertainty about the future of the New Zealand-China relationship. Li hosted a formal welcome and then lunch for then-Prime Minister Chris Hipkins in Beijing a year ago. The pair ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • Fossil fuels are shredding our democracy
    This is a re-post of an article from the Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler published on June 3, 2024. I have an oped in the New York Times (gift link) about this. For a long time, a common refrain about the energy transition was that renewable energy needed to become ...
    4 days ago
  • Life at 20 kilometres an hour
    We are still in France, getting from A to B.Possibly for only another week, though; Switzerland and Germany are looming now. On we pedal, towards Budapest, at about 20 km per hour.What are are mostly doing is inhaling a country, loving its ways and its food. Rolling, talking, quietly thinking. ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago
  • Hipkins is still useless
    The big problem with the last Labour government was that they were chickenshits who did nothing with the absolute majority we had given them. They governed as if they were scared of their own shadows, afraid of making decisions lest it upset someone - usually someone who would never have ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Exercising with the IDF.
    This morning I did something I seldom do, I looked at the Twitter newsfeed. Normally I take the approach of something that I’m not sure is an American urban legend, or genuinely something kids do over there. The infamous bag of dog poo on the front porch, set it on ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Helm Hammerhand Anime: First Pictures and an Old English ‘Hera’
    We have some news on the upcoming War of the Rohirrim anime. It will apparently be two and a half hours in length, with Peter Jackson as Executive Producer, and Helm’s daughter Hera will be the main character. Also, pictures: The bloke in the middle picture is Freca’s ...
    4 days ago
  • Farmers get free pass on climate AND get subsidies
    The cows will keep burping and farting and climate change will keep accelerating - but farmers can stop worrying about being included in the ETS. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: My six things to note in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Wednesday, June 12 were:The ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Six ideas to secure Te Huia’s Future
    This is a guest post by our friend Darren Davis. It originally appeared on his excellent blog, Adventures in Transitland, which features “musings about public transport and other cool stuff in Aotearoa/ New Zealand and around the globe.” With Te Huia now having funding secure through to 2026, now is ...
    Greater AucklandBy Darren Davis
    4 days ago
  • The methane waka sinks
    In some ways, there may be less than meets the eye to the Government announcement yesterday that the He Waka Eke Noa proposal for farmers to pay for greenhouse gas emissions has been scrapped. The spectre of farmers still having to pay at some point in the future remains. That, ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • At a glance – Does positive feedback necessarily mean runaway warming?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    5 days ago
  • Climate Change: Farmers get what they wanted – for now
    Since entering office, National has unravelled practically every climate policy, leaving us with no effective way of reducing emissions or meeting our emissions budgets beyond magical thinking around the ETS. And today they've announced another step: removing agriculture entirely. At present, following the complete failure of he waka eka noa, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Presumed Innocent?
    The blue billionaireDistraction no interactionOr movement outside these glazed over eyesThe new great divideFew fight the tide to be glorifiedBut will he be satisfied?Can we accept this without zoom?The elephant in the roomNot much happens in politics on a Monday. Bugger all in fact. Although yesterday Christopher Luxon found he ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on our doomed love affair with oil and gas
    What if New Zealand threw a fossil fuel party, and nobody came? On the weekend, Resources Minister Shane Jones sent out the invitations and strung up the balloons, but will anyone really want to invest big time in resuming oil and gas exploration in our corner of the planet? Yes, ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    5 days ago
  • Building better housing insights
    This is a guest post by Meredith Dale, senior urban designer and strategist at The Urban Advisory. There’s a saying that goes something like: ‘what you measure is what you value’. An RNZ article last week claimed that Auckland was ‘hurting’ because of a more affordable supply of homes, particularly townhouses ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    5 days ago
  • Putin would be proud of them
    A Prime Minister directs his public service to inquire into the actions of the opposition political party which is his harshest critic. Something from Orban's Hungary, or Putin's Russia? No, its happening right here in Aotearoa: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced the Public Service Commission will launch an ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Resources for debunking common solar and wind myths
    This is a repost from a Yale Climate Connections article by SueEllen Campbell published on June 3, 2024. The articles listed can help you tell fact from fiction when it comes to solar and wind energy. Some statements you hear about solar and wind energy are just plain false. ...
    6 days ago
  • Juggernaut
    Politics were going on all around us yesterday, and we barely noticed, rolling along canal paths, eating baguettes. It wasn’t until my mate got to the headlines last night that we learned there had been a dismayingly strong far right result in the EU elections and Macron had called a ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • Numbers Game.
    Respect Existence, Or Expect Resistance? There may well have been 50,000 pairs of feet “Marching For Nature” down Auckland’s Queen Street on Saturday afternoon, but the figure that impresses the Coalition Government is the 1,450,000 pairs of Auckland feet that were somewhere else.IN THE ERA OF DRONES and Artificial Intelligence, ...
    6 days ago
  • Media Link: AVFA on post-colonial blowback.
    Selwyn Manning and I discuss varieties of post colonial blowback and the implications its has for the rise of the Global South. Counties discussed include Palestine/Israel, France/New Caledonia, England/India, apartheid/post-apartheid South Africa and post-colonial New Zealand. It is a bit … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    6 days ago
  • Policy by panic
    Back in March, Ombudsman Peter Boshier resigned when he hit the statutory retirement age of 72, leaving the country in the awkward (and legally questionable) position of having him continue as a temporay appointee. It apparently took the entire political system by surprise - as evinced by Labour's dick move ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • PSA: NZ's Richest Company, Zuru, Sucks
    Hi,Today the New Zealand press is breathlessly reporting that the owners of toy company Zuru are officially New Zealand’s wealthiest people: Mat and Nick Mowbray worth an estimated $20 billion between them.While the New Zealand press loses its shit celebrating this Kiwi success story, this is a Webworm reminder that ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago
  • Bernard's Dawn Chorus and pick 'n' mix for Monday, June 10
    TL;DR: The six things to note in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty in the past day to 8:36 pm on Monday, June 10 were:20,000 protested against the Fast-track approval bill on Saturday in Auckland, but PM Christopher Luxon says ‘sorry, but not sorry’ about the need for ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • In Defence of Kāinga Ora
    Given the headlines around the recent findings of the ‘independent’ review of Kāinga Ora by Bill English, you might assume this post will be about social housing, Kāinga Ora’s most prominent role. While that is indeed something that requires defending, I want to talk about the other core purpose of ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    6 days ago
  • Baby You're A Rich Man
    “How does it feel to beOne of the beautiful peopleNow that you know who you areWhat do you want to beAnd have you traveled very far?Far as the eye can see”Yesterday the ACT party faithful were regaled with craven boasts, sneers, and demands for even more at their annual rally.That ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • Stopping a future Labour government from shutting down gas exploration
    A defiant Resources Minister Shane Jones has responded to Saturday’s environmental protests by ending Labour’s offshore oil exploration ban and calling for long-term contracts with any successful explorers. The purpose would be to prevent a future Labour Government from reversing any licence the explorers might hold. Jones sees a precedent ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #23
    A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, June 2, 2024 thru Sat, June 8, 2024. Story of the week Our Story of the Week is Yale Climate Connection's Resources for debunking common solar and wind myths, by ...
    7 days ago
  • Fission by the river
    This is where we ate our lunch last Wednesday. Never mind your châteaux and castles and whatnot, we like to enjoy a baguette in the shadow of a nuclear power plant; a station that puts out more than twice as much as Manapouri using nothing more than tiny atoms to bring ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • Fact Brief – Is the ocean acidifying?
    Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by John Mason in collaboration with members from the Gigafact team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Is the ocean acidifying? Acidification of oceans ...
    1 week ago
  • 20,000+ on Queen St.
    The largest protest I ever went on was in the mid 90s. There were 10,000 people there that day, and I’ve never forgotten it. An enormous mass of people, chanting together. Stretching block after block, bringing traffic to a halt.But I can’t say that’s the biggest protest I’ve ever been ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Josh Drummond's Columns
    Hi there,I wanted to put all of Josh Drummond’s Webworm pieces all in one place. I love that he writes for Webworm — and all of these are a good read!David.Why Are So Many “Christians” Hellbent on Being Horrible?Why do so many objectively hideous people declare themselves “Christian”?Meeting the Master ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 week ago
  • Bernard’s Saturday soliloquy and weekend Pick ‘n’ Mix for June 8/9
    Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: On reflection, the six things to note in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty this week were:The Government-driven freeze in building new classrooms, local roads and water networks in order to save cash for tax cuts is frustrating communities facing massive population ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The no-vision thing
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past somewhat interrupted week. Still on the move!Share Read more ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • When Journalists are Disingenuous
    Hi,One of the things I like the most about Webworm is to be able to break down the media and journalism a little, and go behind the scenes.This is one of those times.Yesterday an email arrived in my inbox from journalist Jonathan Milne, who is managing editor at Newsroom.I don’t ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 week ago
  • Me, elsewhere: Just say you’ll do the thing
    Wrote something over at 1/200 on a familiar theme of mine: The way we frame the economy as a separate, sacred force which must be sacrificed to, the way we talk about criminals as invaders who must be repelled, the constant othering of people on the benefit, people not in ...
    Boots TheoryBy Stephanie Rodgers
    1 week ago
  • A Voyage Among the Vandals: Accepted
    A nice bit of news today: my 4600-word historical fantasy-horror piece, A Voyage Among the Vandals, has been accepted by Phobica Books (https://www.phobicabooks.co.uk/books) for their upcoming Pirate Horror anthology, Shivering Timbers. This one is set in the Mediterranean, during the mid-fifth century AD. Notable for having one of history’s designated ...
    1 week ago
  • Ministerial conflicts of interest
    Since the National government came to power, it has been surrounded by allegations of conflicts of interest. Firstly, there's the fast-track law, which concentrates power in the hands of three Ministers, some of whom have received donations from companies whose projects they will be deciding on. Secondly, there's the close ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • The 2024 Budget Forecasts Are Gloomy Prognosis About The Next Three Years.
    There was no less razzamatazz about the 2024 Budget than about earlier ones. Once again the underlying economic analysis got lost. It deserves more attention.Just to remind you, the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU), is the Treasury’s independent assessment and so can be analysed by other competent economists (although ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • A government that can't see twenty feet ahead
    There are two failings that consistently characterise a National government. One is a lack of imagination, the other is their willingness to look after their mates, no matter what harm it might do to everyone else.This is how we come to have thousands of enormous trucks carving up our roads. ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • A post I hope is incorrect
    In May, we learned that National MP David MacLeod had "forgotten" to declare $178,000 in electoral donations. Filing a donation return which is false in any material particular is a crime, and the Electoral Commission has now referred MacLeod to police, since they're the only people who are allowed to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Māori Cannot Re-Write New Zealand’s Constitution By Stealth.
    The Kotahitanga Parliament 1897: A Māori Parliament – at least in the guise of a large and representative body dedicated to describing the shape of New Zealand’s future from a Māori perspective – would be a very good idea.THE DEMAND for a “Māori Parliament” needs to be carefully unpicked. Some Pakeha, ...
    1 week ago
  • Cowpats and Colonials.
    Dumbtown, is how my friend Gerard refers to people like ZB listeners - he’s not wrong.Normally on a Friday I start by looking at Mike Hosking’s moronic reckons of the week which he vomits down the throats of his audience like helpless baby birds in a nest, grateful for the ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Gordon Campbell on cutting the sick leave of vulnerable workers
    Should sick leave be part and parcel of the working conditions from Day One on the job, just like every other health and safety provision? Or should access to sick leave be something that only gradually accumulates, depending on how long a worker has been on the payroll? If enacted ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    1 week ago
  • Nobody Move: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.
    So long as we live in a democracy, economic policy can never be anything other than social-democratic.“HEH!”, snorted Laurie, as he waved his debit card over the EFTPOS machine. “Same price as last week. I guess budgets aren’t what they used to be.”“I wouldn’t know,” replied the young barman, wearily, ...
    1 week ago
  • In Search Of Unity.
    Kotahitanga: New Zealand’s future belongs to those who do not fear a nation carved out of unity and solidarity, and are willing to trust the carvers. Some New Zealanders will be required to step up, and others, perhaps for the first time in their lives, will be expected to step ...
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Roundup 7-June-2024
    Welcome to another Friday roundup! Here are some recent links and stories that caught our eye, perfectly timed for your watercooler discussions and weekend reading. As always feel free to share more in the comments. Our header image this week is by Patrick Reynolds, and shows Te Komititanga from above. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    1 week ago
  • The Hoon around the week to June 7
    As Workplace Relations and Safety Minister, ACT’s Brooke van Velden is fronting proposed changes to sick pay regulations and The Holiday Act. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers features talking with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent talking about the ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Did we boil the oceans by cutting pollution?
    Lowering aerosol emissions from shipping has altered clouds, with potentially drastic effects. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: Here’s the top six news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above between Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer:New evidence is increasingly pointing at efforts ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #23 2024
    Open access notables Abrupt reduction in shipping emission as an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock produces substantial radiative warming, Yuan et al., Communications Earth & Environment: Human activities affect the Earth’s climate through modifying the composition of the atmosphere, which then creates radiative forcing that drives climate change. The warming effect ...
    1 week ago
  • Fragments
    The best observation I’ve read this week about the deep, profound harm Trump is doingTrump has hurled threats and smears at witnesses, jurors and the judge (including his family)... [he] has tried to intimidate witnesses and delegitimize the New York courts as corrupt. In continuing to incite his mob (that ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • March for Nature
    Do do do do do do do doDo do do do do doDi di di di di di di di di di diNature enter me…In 2018 the Labour lead government banned new oil and gas exploration in Aotearoa. A change welcomed by those who care deeply for our environment and ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Bernard’s Dawn Chorus and pick ‘n’ mix for Thursday, June 6
    The Transport Minister is trying to push through urgent legislation that would allow him to change emissions standards for car imports without approval from Parliament, after only consulting car importers. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Just as two major reports showed fossil fuel burning was warming the planet to dangerous levels and ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • A Better Broadway: Act 2
    This is a guest post by reader Grant A, the second of a pair about how to fix Broadway. If you missed the beginning of the show, here’s the link to Act 1 from yesterday. Yesterday, I discussed changing traffic circulation around Broadway in Newmarket. This included implementing a car-free ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    1 week ago

  • High Court Judge appointed
    Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Auckland King’s Counsel Gregory Peter Blanchard as a High Court Judge. Justice Blanchard attended the University of Auckland from 1991 to 1995, graduating with an LLB (Honours) and Bachelor of Arts (English). He was a solicitor with the firm that is now Dentons ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Health workforce numbers rise
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says new data released today shows encouraging growth in the health workforce, with a continued increase in the numbers of doctors, nurses and midwives joining Health New Zealand. “Frontline healthcare workers are the beating heart of the healthcare system. Increasing and retaining our health workforce ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government to overhaul firearms laws
    Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee has today announced a comprehensive programme to reform New Zealand's outdated and complicated firearms laws. “The Arms Act has been in place for over 40 years. It has been amended several times – in a piecemeal, and sometimes rushed way. This has resulted in outdated ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government delivers landmark specialist schools investment
    The coalition Government is delivering record levels of targeted investment in specialist schools so children with additional needs can thrive. As part of Budget 24, $89 million has been ringfenced to redevelop specialist facilities and increase satellite classrooms for students with high needs. This includes: $63 million in depreciation funding ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Major health and safety consultation begins
    A substantial consultation on work health and safety will begin today with a roadshow across the regions over the coming months, says Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden.  This the first step to deliver on the commitment to reforming health and safety law and regulations, set out in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Growing the potential of New Zealand’s forestry sector in partnership
    Forestry Minister Todd McClay, today announced the start of the Government’s plan to restore certainty and confidence in the forestry and wood processing sector. “This government will drive investment to unlock the industry’s economic potential for growth,” Mr McClay says. “Forestry’s success is critical to rebuilding New Zealand’s economy, boosting ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government cancels forestry ETS annual service charges for 2023-24
    Annual service charges in the forestry Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) will be cancelled for 2023/24, Forestry Minister Todd McClay says. “The sector has told me the costs imposed on forestry owners by the previous government were excessive and unreasonable and I agree,” Mr McClay says. “They have said that there ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Speech to the LGNZ Infrastructure Symposium
    Introduction Thank you for having me here today and welcome to Wellington, the home of the Hurricanes, the next Super Rugby champions. Infrastructure – the challenge This government has inherited a series of big challenges in infrastructure. I don’t need to tell an audience as smart as this one that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government boosts Agriculture and food trade with China
    Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay and Food Safety Minister Andrew Hoggard welcomed outcomes to boost agricultural and food trade between New Zealand and China. A number of documents were signed today at Government House that will improve the business environment between New Zealand and China, and help reduce barriers, including on infant formula ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • NZ and China launch Services Trade Negotiations
    Trade Minister Todd McClay, and China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, today announced the official launch of Negotiations on Services Trade between the two countries.  “The Government is focused on opening doors for services exporters to grow the New Zealand’s economy,” Mr McClay says.  As part of the 2022 New Zealand-China Free Trade Agreement Upgrade ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Prime Minister Luxon meets with Premier Li
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang at Government House in Wellington today.  “I was pleased to welcome Premier Li to Wellington for his first official visit, which marks 10 years since New Zealand and China established a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership,” Mr Luxon says. “The Premier and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government and business tackling gender pay gap
    The coalition Government is taking action to reduce the gender pay gap in New Zealand through the development of a voluntary calculation tool. “Gender pay gaps have impacted women for decades, which is why we need to continue to drive change in New Zealand,” Acting Minister for Women Louise Upston ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Funding Boost for Rural Support Trusts
    The coalition Government is boosting funding for Rural Support Trusts to provide more help to farmers and growers under pressure, Rural Communities Minister Mark Patterson announced today. “A strong and thriving agricultural sector is crucial to the New Zealand economy and one of the ways to support it is to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Latest data shows size of public service decreasing
    Spending on contractors and consultants continues to fall and the size of the Public Service workforce has started to decrease after years of growth, according to the latest data released today by the Public Service Commission. Workforce data for the quarter from 31 December 23 to 31 March 24 shows ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Speech to the Law Association
    Thank you to the Law Association for inviting me to speak this morning. As a former president under its previous name — the Auckland District Law Society — I take particular satisfaction in seeing this organisation, and its members, in such good heart. As Attorney-General, I am grateful for these ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • 25 years on, NZ reaffirms enduring friendship with Timor Leste
    New Zealand is committed to working closely with Timor-Leste to support its prosperity and resilience, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.   “This year is the 25th anniversary of New Zealand sending peacekeepers to Timor-Leste, who contributed to the country’s stabilisation and ultimately its independence,” Mr Peters says.    “A quarter ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Inquiry requested into rural banking
    Promoting robust competition in the banking sector is vital to rebuilding the economy, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says.  “New Zealanders deserve a banking sector that is as competitive as possible. Banking services play an important role in our communities and in the economy. Kiwis rely on access to lending when ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Ministry for Regulation targets red tape to keep farmers and growers competitive
    Regulation Minister David Seymour, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds, and Food Safety Minister Andrew Hoggard have today announced a regulatory sector review on the approval process for new agricultural and horticultural products.    “Red tape stops farmers and growers from getting access to products that have been approved by other OECD countries. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government to reverse blanket speed limit reductions
    The Coalition Government will reverse Labour’s blanket speed limit reductions by 1 July 2025 through a new Land Transport Rule released for public consultation today, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  The draft speed limit rule will deliver on the National-ACT coalition commitment to reverse the previous government’s blanket speed limit ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Chair appointments for NZSO, CNZ and NZ On Air
    Minister Paul Goldsmith is making major leadership changes within both his Arts and Media portfolios. “I am delighted to announce Carmel Walsh will be officially stepping into the role of Chair of the New Zealand Symphony Orchestra, having been acting Chair since April,” Arts Minister Paul Goldsmith says.  “Carmel is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government focus on long-term food, fibre growth
    Food and fibre export revenue is tipped to reach $54.6 billion this year and hit a record $66.6b in 2028 as the Government focuses on getting better access to markets and cutting red tape, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay and Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones say. “This achievement is testament ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Govt consulting on cutting red tape for exporters
    A new export exemption proposal for food businesses demonstrates the coalition Government’s commitment to reducing regulatory barriers for industry and increasing the value of New Zealand exports, which gets safe New Zealand food to more markets, says Food Safety Minister Andrew Hoggard.  “The coalition Government has listened to the concerns ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New Zealand and Philippines elevating relationship
    New Zealand and Philippines are continuing to elevate our relationship, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.   “The leaders of New Zealand and Philippines agreed in April 2024 to lift our relationship to a Comprehensive Partnership by 2026,” Mr Peters says. “Our visit to Manila this week has been an excellent ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Paid Parental Leave increase to help families
    Workplace Relations and Safety Minister, Brooke van Velden says paid parental leave increase from 1 July will put more money in the pockets of Kiwi parents and give them extra support as they take precious time off to bond with their newborns. The increase takes effect from 1 July 2024 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Defence increases UN Command commitment
    The number of New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) personnel deployed to the Republic of Korea is increasing, Defence Minister Judith Collins and Foreign Minister Winston Peters announced today.  NZDF will deploy up to 41 additional personnel to the Republic of Korea, increasing the size of its contribution to the United ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • New Zealand to attend 'Summit on Peace in Ukraine' in Switzerland
    New Zealand will be represented at the Summit on Peace in Ukraine by Minister Mark Mitchell in Switzerland later this week.    “New Zealand strongly supports Ukraine’s efforts to build a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace,” Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.   “Minister Mitchell is a senior Cabinet Minister and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Big step forward for M.bovis programme
    Farmers’ hard work is paying off in the fight against Mycoplasma bovis (M. bovis) with the move to a national pest management plan marking strong progress in the eradication effort, says Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard.  “The plan, approved by the Coalition Government, was proposed by the programme partners DairyNZ, Beef ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Build To Rent opening welcomed by Housing Minister
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Housing Minister Chris Bishop formally opened a new Build to Rent development in Mt Wellington this morning. “The Prime Minister and I were honoured to cut the ribbon of Resido, New Zealand’s largest Build to Rent development to date.  “Build to Rent housing, like the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Agriculture to come out of the ETS
    The Government will deliver on its election commitment to take agriculture out of the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) and will establish a new Pastoral Sector Group to constructively tackle biogenic methane, Coalition Government Agriculture and Climate Change Ministers say. Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says New Zealand farmers ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Luxon Tokyo-bound for political and business visit
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will travel to Japan from 16-20 June, his first visit as Prime Minister.   “Japan is incredibly important to New Zealand's prosperity. It is the world’s fourth largest economy, and our fourth largest export destination.  “As you know, growing the economy is my number one priority. A strong economy means ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Bayly travels to Singapore for scam prevention meetings
    Minister of Commerce and Consumer Affairs, Andrew Bayly, travels to Singapore today to attend scam and fraud prevention meetings. “Scams are a growing international problem, and we are not immune in New Zealand. Organised criminal networks operate across borders, and we need to work with our Asia-Pacific partners to tackle ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • More help for homeowners impacted by severe weather
    People who were displaced by severe weather events in 2022 and 2023 will be supported by the extension of Temporary Accommodation Assistance through to 30 June 2025. Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says the coalition Government is continuing to help to those who were forced out of their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government to reverse oil and gas exploration ban
    Removing the ban on petroleum exploration beyond onshore Taranaki is part of a suite of proposed amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to deal with the energy security challenges posed by rapidly declining natural gas reserves, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “Natural gas is critical to keeping our lights on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand and Malaysia to intensify connections
    New Zealand and Malaysia intend to intensify their long-standing, deep connections, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.    “Malaysia is one of New Zealand’s oldest friends in South-East Asia – and both countries intend to get more out of the relationship," Mr Peters says.   "Our connections already run deep and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Ending contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua
    The end of Contracted Emergency Housing (CEH) motels in Rotorua is nearing another milestone as the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) announces it will not renew consents for six of the original 13 motels, Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka says. The government is committed to stop using CEH ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • First Home Grant closure exemptions
    The Government is providing a narrow exemption from the discontinuation of the First Home Grant for first home buyers who may face unfair situations as a result, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “The First Home Grant scheme was closed with immediate effect on 22 May 2024, with savings being reprioritised ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Faster consenting for flood protection projects in Hawke's Bay
    Work to increase flood resilience in Hawke’s Bay can start sooner, thanks to a new fast consenting process, Minister for Emergency Management and Recovery Mark Mitchell and Environment Minister Penny Simmonds say.  “Faster consenting means work to build stop banks, spillways and other infrastructure can get underway sooner, increasing flood ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Judge Craig Coxhead and Nathan Milner newest Māori Land Court appointments
    Tangata tū tangata ora, tangata noho tangata mate. Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka today announced acting Deputy Chief Judge Craig Coxhead as the new Deputy Chief Judge, and Nathan Milner as Judge of the Māori Land Court. "I want to congratulate Judge Coxhead and Mr Milner on their appointments ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government signs Indo-Pacific Economic agreements to boost trade
    Trade Minister Todd McClay and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts, today signed three Indo Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) agreements that will boost investment, grow New Zealand’s digital and green economies and increase trade between New Zealand and the 14 IPEF partners. IPEF’s partners represent 40 per cent of global GDP ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government signs Indo-Pacific Economic agreements to boost trade and cooperation
    Trade Minister Todd McClay and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts, today signed three Indo Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) agreements that will boost investment, grow New Zealand’s digital and green economies and increase trade between New Zealand and the 14 IPEF partners. IPEF’s partners represent 40 per cent of global GDP ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

Page generated in The Standard by Wordpress at 2024-06-16T00:32:51+00:00