Escape Velocity

Written By: - Date published: 9:11 am, February 7th, 2021 - 93 comments
Categories: climate change, Economy, energy, Environment, food, global warming, Mining, poverty, science, sustainability, uncategorized - Tags:

In this series so far I’ve examined three of the four terms in the Kaya Identity, population, economic intensity, and energy intensity. It can be conclusively shown that none of these factors can be reduced sufficiently to reduce CO2 emissions to zero – or even close enough to be useful. Let’s return to each one in turn:

Population. All the developed nations now have stable or decreasing populations. It’s only in the underdeveloped regions of Africa where population is still projected to increase this century. Human population will likely reach about 11b mid-century and then decline everywhere very gradually. This in itself will present many novel challenges as our demographic pyramids invert – but for the sake of this discussion we can set that aside.

Economic Intensity. While there is no question some small fraction of humanity engages in wasteful, excessive expenditure – the vast majority do not. We can, and for entirely tangential reasons moderate some of the excesses of the modern world, but any general proposal called ‘de-growth’ condemns around half of the world’s population to perpetual poverty, and much of the rest to never moving past the modest middle class life they’ve only just attained this last few decades. Moreover poverty is the crucial driver in large family size, which means driving that humanity back into a meagre standard of living will only have the perverse effect of driving up population growth rates again. And pushes poor rural people out into the remaining wilderness in order to scavenge for food or burn trees for charcoal. An imposed ‘de-growth’ agenda might look doable if you’re living a comfortable, economically padded life in the developed world – but for 90% of humanity it’s a disaster.

Energy Intensity. Put simply, while it can be shown that better technology has generally improved energy efficiency, the rate at which this is occurring is not keeping up with the increase in economic activity that is driving total human welfare.

The change over time of the these three factors is shown here.

Kaya Trend

Careful examination reveals three crucial aspects. One is that economic growth dominates everything. We have started on a trajectory to escape poverty but at the cost of destabilising our climate. Secondly that while both energy intensity and efficiency have been steadily improving – the present dominance of fossil carbon in the mix ensures we can never achieve zero carbon by being more ‘careful’ with how we use energy.

And thirdly there is a perverse cross linkage between all three of these terms – decreasing energy reduces economic activity, which in turn increases population. All three are connected in a complex web of social and economic interactions that mean tinkering with one of these terms as a matter of policy, is likely to have unintended consequences in one of the other three.

This leaves us with the fourth term, the only one that technically stands on it’s own.

Carbon Intensity. This is the measure of how much fossil carbon is released into the atmosphere per unit of energy we use. In our pre-Industrial era we relied totally on energy derived from photosynthesis, which gave us muscle power (serfs, slaves and draft animals) and wood to burn. Although carbon based, it had zero fossil carbon intensity and thus did not upset the atmospheric CO2 balance. But it was such a weak source it condemned most of humanity to grinding, endless poverty. And being geographically diffuse meant that to get more energy demanded more land, which in turn drove our old habit of invasion, conquest and empire. And of course it was also intermittent – some seasons famine stalked the land wiping out decades or even centuries of progress. Most catastrophic collapses of pre-industrial societies have some significant climate/food supply component to them.

The innate deficiencies of this diffuse and intermittent source of energy trapped humanity into a limited development range for millennia. Then we found how to burn coal in efficient steam engines and everything changed. Suddenly we had an intense, concentrated and reliable energy source and on the back of this we built the modern world. Every single aspect of your life that is modern, derives from this single critical invention.

But as we all know, this phase could not be sustained. Burning fossil carbon always had an expiry date on it. This would have doomed our leap into modernity to little more than a short hop into oblivion, but for the discovery of the atom and quantum mechanics. And then for first time we had a source of energy that was concentrated, continuous and has no impact on the natural world. (That our very first attempts to harness it have proven imperfect is no more surprising than the fact that early steam engines were imperfect too. And in both cases engineers learned the lessons and set about evolving their technology.)

It is nuclear power alone that holds the capacity to deliver zero carbon , reliable and ultimately abundant energy to humanity. This is how we drive the fourth term of the Kaya Identity to zero, and emerge from under the threats of poverty, empire, environmental collapse and uncontrolled depopulation – all at once. And as with all of our major technological innovations, it will enable the next major leap in our social development. This is the next stage that takes us to escape velocity – one that de-couples human development from unsustainable exploitation of the natural world.

A world that runs on nuclear energy is one in which geography suddenly matters much less. A nation favoured by climate, coastlines with deepwater ports, navigable rivers and accessible mineral resources no longer becomes the default regional empire. A world in which transport costs are the same almost regardless of location means that mountains, plateaus, wide oceans and deserts no longer condemn a people to isolation and poverty. A world where food, communication, education and opportunity are more or less equally available everywhere lacks only one thing to fulfill it’s promise – a global security order to ensure it’s stability, peacefulness and continuity. Finally humanity might leap from the constraints of it’s collective planet-bound childhood, into it’s adult version – one capable of delivering on so much of the potential we could only glimpse in our turbulent adolescent era.

This is a vision shared by numerous prominent and capable people. Dr James Hansen – the man most visibly identified with the modern climate change movement – has vocally promotes nuclear power as the most valuable tool we have in this crisis. Yet absurdly, irrationally and in the face of all the evidence to the contrary, Green movements globally have clung to an anti-nuclear stance, and perpetuated a fear-mongering campaign of disinformation that continues to mislead the majority of people everywhere.

In this I conclude that a future generation might come to regard the Green movement as the single largest threat to the environment of this period, an obdurate people who while holding to good intentions and professing to want to save the planet – spent decades denying us the one technology that could have easily permitted us to achieve just that.

93 comments on “Escape Velocity ”

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  1. Robert Guyton 1
    7 February 2021 at 9:41 am

    "In our pre-Industrial era we relied totally on energy derived from photosynthesis, which gave us muscle power (serfs, slaves and draft animals) and wood to burn"

    Pre-agriculture, however, was a different story. The problem you describe arises from the reliance on the products of ag and industry. Without those "requirements", the need for "labourers" is not there; every man, woman and child involves themselves in living, without the "grinding, endless poverty" you so frequently cite 🙂

    • RedLogix 1.1
      7 February 2021 at 9:56 am

      That's true Robert. Yet pre-agriculture was an earlier stage altogether and a fascinating study in it's own right. I'd dwell on it more but I struggle to keep my posts concise as it is surprise.

      We tend to think of our deep ancestors as benighted and ignorant compared to us – and in some ways they were. But they were also very tough, smart and capable individuals who had to survive in a much more challenging world than us, and despite this, for tens of thousands of years our global population barely exceeded an estimated 10m.

      The geneticists tell us the we likely nearly went extinct several times, with one study suggesting we went through a bottleneck of fewer than 24 mothers from whom we're all descended.

      I can understand the temptation to propose that we could solve all the problems of modernity (and there are many) by abolishing it and reverting to earlier stage. To extend the rocket analogy – could we abort at our present stage like SpaceX and perform a safe soft landing back into the conditions that prevailed in our pre-agricultural history? I cannot rule it out, but I'd view it as a fraught proposition.

      • Robert Guyton 1.1.1
        7 February 2021 at 10:34 am

        I don't support "abolishing it" or "reverting to an earlier stage". We're clever primates and have fabricated some marvellous tools and ideas; if we apply those to the pressing issue (our impending demise) we will surely come up with something transformational. The concern I hear from many though, is that humans are poorly armed, intellectually and emotionally, to do what needs to be done, preferring to cling to their destructive cultures; consumerism, tribalism, biophobia etc. In other words, the heaving masses will sink us all 🙂

  2. Robert Guyton 2
    7 February 2021 at 9:47 am

    Reading on…you assign great influence to those "obdurate" greenies. Do you really feel they've been so powerful? Russel Norman's shaped the world we live in to that extent??

    James Shaw's Public Enemy No.1?

    • RedLogix 2.1
      7 February 2021 at 10:00 am

      There's no question that the anti-nuclear movement (that started out as a legitimate expression of the precautionary principle), is tightly linked to the Green movement. They're not exactly one and the same thing, but they do overlap extensively.

      Does this make James Shaw an public menace? Well the judgement of future generations may well be quite different to what we'd both like. Much depends on what happens in this decade.

      • Drowsy M. Kram 2.1.1
        7 February 2021 at 10:24 am

        RL, why do you think the anti-nuclear/Green movement failed to limit the development of the nuclear power industry in France? Are you perhaps crediting the Green movement with more political/industrial influence than is its due?

        Not that I'd mind if the Green movement did have more political clout, but it just seems an overly convenient bogeyman in support of your thesis: Anti-nuclear/Green movement(s) BAD; nuclear power GOOD.

  3. Gosman 3
    7 February 2021 at 11:44 am

    While I largely agree with your take on Nuclear energy as being vital for supplying the necessary energy that we need (coupled with greater use of hydrogen as a power source) I also am more optimistic in terms of increasing general well being. Ultimately wealth and growth is driven by productivity. Productivity is basically a factor of utilising resources in a more efficient and/or profitable manner. Human's have reached a level of technological advancement where we can continue to increase value while keeping resource usage the same or even less.

  4. barry 4
    7 February 2021 at 12:40 pm

    But the cost of nuclear energy has never got down below the cost of coal/gas powered electricity, and it is now significantly more expensive than wind. The only advantage of nuclear energy is that it is always on, but there are ways around that with the right mix of renewable sources.

    If we had properly priced fossil fuel, and supported renewables, then the cost equation would have tipped in favour of renewables long ago. As it is we are just reaching that point.

    • RedLogix 4.1
      7 February 2021 at 1:33 pm

      Barry,

      At this point in time cost is one of the three hurdles that must be leapt over. The other two are public acceptance and the need to attract new young engineering talent into the field.

      The good news is that all the next generation designs look to be addressing the cost question head on.

    • Gosman 4.2
      7 February 2021 at 2:47 pm

      The problem Barry is that the extra capacity you need to build in to a renewable system to account for periods where generating ability is lower than expected makes it more inefficient in terms of use of resources and this grows exponentially the higher percentage of your power is generated via this source. Imaging if half of your power is generated by renewable sources like solar and wind and half via non-renewables. To cover a single day where solar and wind are working at only half their generating capacity requires the rest of the system to pick up the slack or for storage like batteries to do so. Now imagine 100% of your system is solar or wind and you have two or three days of cloudy still weather. Suddenly you haven't got another option to increase energy output and your power storage requirements are much higher. Storing a large amount of power just in case you have days of low generating capacity is incredibly inefficient and the cost of energy will rise as a result.

      • Tricledrown 4.2.1
        8 February 2021 at 9:40 am

        Gosman hydro dam storage can be used to cover low solar and wind.

        Nuclear is getting way to expensive to be economically viable not to mention the environmental consequences.

        The UK has had massive blow outs in 2 nuclear power plants that were being built that the money required to finish them is not available so they won't be completed.

        Because they are uneconomic .

        Gosman you are out of touch on just about every subject you comment on.

        Stirring for the sake of stirring.

        • RedLogix 4.2.1.1
          8 February 2021 at 10:06 am

          Nuclear is getting way to expensive to be economically viable not to mention the environmental consequences.

          That is the 'out of touch' belief you have. Time to update.

          • Tricledrown 4.2.1.1.1
            8 February 2021 at 10:24 am

            Redlogistics your link is an advert by a nuclear power plant construction company who are selling white elephants.

            All nuclear power plant construction including breeder reactors have had massive budget blowouts .EDR's French plant has gone from a €4 billion to nearly €20 billion and rising,like wise all other Nuclear power plant construction costs have gone way beyond economically viable.

            • RedLogix 4.2.1.1.1.1
              8 February 2021 at 11:54 am

              Read the link. You persist in conflating your out of date ideas with new designs that employ completely different methods.

              Your argument amounts to something like saying that smartphones could never be made because the vacuum tubes necessary would be too large.

        • Gosman 4.2.1.2
          9 February 2021 at 6:58 am

          Where are you going to build these hydro storage dams in NZ? Please specify the exact locations and the areas that need to be flooded for them

  5. Pat 5
    7 February 2021 at 1:39 pm

    I find it curious that if nuclear is going to be the solution to future energy requirements that the sole country deriving the majority of its electricity (not energy) from nuclear, France, has implemented a programme to REDUCE the proportion of electricity generated by nuclear considerably over the coming decade or two.

    Perhaps the fact they now face the considerable problem of decommissioning the bulk of their sites as the reactors reach the end of their 40 (thats right, 40) year design life may have something to do with it…..and to be replaced by renewables.

    It also occurs to me that if you take the energy required to construct, operate and decommission a nuclear generator it may well be a net energy consumer rather than generator

    • RedLogix 5.1
      7 February 2021 at 2:00 pm

      It's a purely political decision driven by the French Greens.

      • Pat 5.1.1
        7 February 2021 at 2:17 pm

        Keep telling yourself that…the Greens in France have around the same electoral support as in NZ….not to mention the expert advice given to the French Gov that led to the decision.

        No comment I see on the net energy position of nuclear…a quick search found this.

        "We conclude that the operation of a large nuclear-power system, involving a continuing construction program of starting one new 1000-MW system each month for 100 yrs, would yield a relatively small amount of net energy, under optimistic assumptions. Under less-optimistic assumptions the net-energy yield is negligible to negative. "

        https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0360544288900801

        • RedLogix 5.1.1.1
          7 February 2021 at 3:21 pm

          I'm on my phone at the moment but I'll offer a more complete answer later.

        • RedLogix 5.1.1.2
          7 February 2021 at 4:09 pm

          Your reference is dated 1988 and has no relevance to the new 4th gen designs being developed now.

          • Pat 5.1.1.2.1
            7 February 2021 at 5:01 pm

            Those 4th generation designs will have been considered when the French Gov. made their decision a year or so ago…..and youre welcome to provide any later study showing otherwise

            • RedLogix 5.1.1.2.1.1
              7 February 2021 at 5:08 pm

              The French govt decision is entirely political – driven by an agreement with their Green party that has nothing to do with the safety or economics of the existing plants in question. The question of new fourth gen designs does not appear to have even been a consideration.

              In this case this decision will lead directly to an increase of France's carbon emissions – because these nuclear plants will have to be replaced with coal and gas. There will not be the renewables available to fill the gap.

              An entirely perverse and stupid decision.

              • Tricledrown …
                8 February 2021 at 10:33 am

                The greens have very little power in French politics right wing govt have dominated in recent years even mitterrand was a damp squid.

                Chernobyl is the reason Europe is winding down its reliance on Nuclear.

                General public backlash is the reason.

                Then the Cost's of decommisioning have always been under costed by $100's of billions by the companies selling and constructing Nuclear reactors. Govt eventually pick up the tab power prices may not go up but your taxes and govt debt go up .

        • RedLogix 5.1.1.3
          7 February 2021 at 4:31 pm

          OK here is my reference:

          Fessenheim had years left to run

          The French nuclear regulator, ASN, says that “the plant rates above average on safety and environmental performance compared to the rest of the French nuclear fleet, and around average for radioprotection.”

          Fessenheim is almost a carbon-copy of Beaver Valley Unit 1 in Pennsylvania, US. Beaver Valley Unit 1 started operation before Fessenheim but is licensed to operate until at least 2036. This seems to contradict the claim that Fessenheim is too old.

          Couple that with OECD research that suggests extending the life of plants like Fessenheim is the most cost-effective way to reduce carbon emissions, and the reasoning behind closing the plant looks even shakier.

          The French government knows there is nothing wrong with Fessenheim, which is why it has agreed to pay compensation to the plant’s owners, EDF, every year until 2041; Fessenheim should have kept running for another 20 years. Unfortunately, there is no such compensation for the 5,000 people who will lose their jobs (directly and indirectly) when the plant closes.

          A question of politics

          The answer to why Fessenheim is closing is sadly one of politics. It goes back to 2012 when then President of France, Francois Hollande, made a deal to guarantee the support of the Greens (les Verts). Hollande promised France would reduce its reliance on nuclear to 50% instead of 75% of all electricity.

          • Pat 5.1.1.3.1
            7 February 2021 at 5:11 pm

            Hollands's deal was scuppered and after further advice the current policy was implemented by Macron (no Greens involved)…such is politics

            • RedLogix 5.1.1.3.1.1
              7 February 2021 at 5:27 pm

              In what world can you justify this?

              Replaced by fossil fuels

              The saddest part of this story is that there is no new renewable plant being built overnight to replace Fessenheim. It will be replaced almost entirely by fossil fuels. When questioned about the impact of Fessenheim’s closure on grid security, French grid operator RTE explained that the closure is not a problem as it’s being offset primarily by a “combined cycle gas plant in Landivisiau”.

              “The Fessenheim power station emits 6g of CO2/kWh, while, on the other side of the Rhine, the German electricity system emits more than 400g of CO2/kWh,” Valérie Faudon of the French Nuclear Society explained.

              “The output of the Fessenheim plant will not be replaced by renewable energy, which is already prioritised by the grid, but rather by the production of French or foreign gas-fired power plants. It’s worth noting that, as Fessenheim closes, Germany is commissioning a new coal-fired power plant, in Datteln,” Faudon added.

              So a nuclear plant closes as a coal plant opens. Perhaps one day there will be a reckoning in the green movement, and it will be seen that nuclear is better than coal. That day is not today.

              A prime example of ideology trumping basic science and engineering.

              • Pat …
                7 February 2021 at 6:07 pm

                "A prime example of ideology trumping basic science and engineering."

                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France#:~:text=Nuclear%20power%20is%20the%20largest,highest%20percentage%20in%20the%20world.&text=EDF%20is%20substantially%20owned%20by,85%25%20shares%20in%20government%20hands.

                "In 2015, the National Assembly voted that by 2025 only 50% of France's energy will be produced by nuclear plants.[28] Environment Minister Nicolas Hulot noted in November 2017 that this goal is unrealistic, postponing the reduction to 2030 or 2035.[29]

                In 2016, following a discovery at Flamanville Nuclear Power Plant, about 400 large steel forgings manufactured by Le Creusot Forge since 1965 were found to have carbon-content irregularities that weakened the steel. A widespread programme of reactor checks was started involving a progressive programme of reactor shutdowns, continued over the winter high electricity demand period into 2017. This caused power price increases in Europe as France increased electricity imports, especially from Germany, to augment supply.[30][31] As of late October 2016, 20 of France's 58 reactors were offline.[32][33] These steel quality concerns may prevent the regulator giving the life extensions from 40 to 50 years, that had been assumed by energy planners, for many reactors.[34] In December 2016 the Wall Street Journal characterised the problem as a "decades long coverup of manufacturing problems", with Areva executives acknowledging that Le Creusot had been falsifying documents.[35] The Le Creusot forge was out of operation from December 2015 to January 2018 while improvements to process controls, the quality management system, organisation and safety culture were made.[36]

                In November 2018, President Macron announced the 50% nuclear power reduction target is being delayed to 2035, and would involve closing fourteen 900 MWe reactors. The two oldest reactors, units 1 and 2 at Fessenheim, will close in 2020. A decision on any new nuclear build will be taken in 2021.[37] EDF is planning an investment programme, called Grand Carénage, to extend reactor lifespans to 50 years, to be largely completed by 2025.[38]

                In 2020, Energy Minister Élisabeth Borne announced the government would not decide on the construction of any new reactors until Flamanville 3 started operation after 2022.[39]"

                As stated earlier, the Macron policy has nothing to do with the Greens, rather it followed expert advice….nuclear power generation has a multitude of problems to overcome before it is a serious proposition and frankly we dont have the time or resources to continue down that rabbit hole….

                [RL: Straight copy and paste of large segments from wikipedia will often trigger the ‘too many links’ condition and place your comments into pre-moderation. Please consider this in future.]

                • RedLogix …
                  7 February 2021 at 6:42 pm

                  nuclear power generation has a multitude of problems to overcome before it is a serious proposition and frankly we dont have the time or resources to continue down that rabbit hole

                  That may have been a reasonable claim in 2011 – it's not in 2021. Much has changed and progressed since.

                  • Pat …
                    7 February 2021 at 6:47 pm

                    Obviously not to the satisfaction of the French, their decision was made in 2018….your constant cry of 'progress' is sounding very hollow….20 years to construct, 40 years operational life and 60 years to decommission….it aint the solution or even a partial solution.

                    • RedLogix …
                      7 February 2021 at 7:13 pm

                      20 years to construct, 40 years operational life and 60 years to decommission

                      If I was here advocating for more of the existing third generation PWR style technology you might have a point. But I'm not and you're raising little but a strawman.

                      All new 4th gen reactors (of which there are almost 70 variants being developed around the world at the moment) are direct responses to the well understood vulnerabilities of PWR reactors. Alvin Weinstein – one of the four people whose name is on the original 1940's patent for them – completely understood this back in the 1950's. He was ignored and squeezed out of the industry. It was only in 2010 that his ideas were rediscovered and properly appreciated.

                      In short fourth gen designs avoid using water as the coolant or moderator. (Or they reduce the size of the reactor back to a scale that greatly mitigates the problems with using water. Hence the Small Modular Reactor SMR acronym commonly seen.)

                      In general fourth gen designs look to achieve the following:

                      1. Avoid using large high pressure and expensive containment vessels. Many operate at close to atmosphere. This hugely reduces the costs and safely profile issues associated with the nuclear island.
                      2. By using high temperature gases or molten salts they operate at similar temperatures to coal and gas boilers which means they can use standard turbines and balance of plant equipment that is a small fraction of the price of specialised nuclear rated equipment. This represents around 85% of the cost of the total plant build and has a major impact.
                      3. The associated civil footprint of all new designs is a small fraction of traditional plants. Many plants will be fabricated in factories and shipped to site in modules or ships. This typically reduces the amount of concrete and steel involved by 90%.

                      On a personal note I was directly involved just a few years ago in a non-nuclear engineering project that used a very similar approach. It was exceedingly successful and shattered all previous expectations on how quickly and cost-effectively such plants could be designed, constructed and commissioned. We literally halved the expected cost and time. We delivered into a site so challenging that two major corporates had tried and failed using traditional methodology.

                      1. Passive 'walk-away safety'. These designs exploit physics and gravity to ensure they are self-regulating and will always safely shut down. Nothing the plant owner or operator can do can change this behaviour. Indeed most plants are expected to be unmanned most of the time and remotely monitored.
                      2. The variants I personally support have their fuel in molten state by design. This means they can 'burn' 99% or more of their fissile fuel load and produce a much smaller volume of waste at a much lower level that only needs to be sequestered for 300 years instead of many 100's of thousands. Very achievable; we deal with other industrial toxics that present a much greater hazard with no particular anxiety.

                      Moreover this means existing waste stockpiles from solid fuel reactors (that typically only burn 3% of their fissile fuel load leaving 97% unused) – become an ideal fuel source for the new gen reactors.

                      Your ideas about nuclear power are entirely dated.

                    • Pat …
                      7 February 2021 at 7:24 pm

                      My ideas about nuclear are dated….you say….but they are the same concerns of those in the energy industry.

                      "Cost and time overruns of the Areva EPR reactors at Olkiluoto in Finland and Flamanville in France are seldom out of the energy news. Olkiluoto began construction in 2005 with planned grid connection in 2010. The original build cost of €3billion has risen to €8.5 billion. And the grid connection has been pushed out to 2018 – 8 years late (13 years construction time) and €5.5 billion over budget."

                      https://euanmearns.com/how-long-does-it-take-to-build-a-nuclear-power-plant/#:~:text=The%20world%20record%20is%2033,was%20grid%20connected%20in%202014.

                      The median construction time has INCREASED since the 1980s

                      https://www.statista.com/statistics/712841/median-construction-time-for-reactors-since-1981/

                      "In short fourth gen designs avoid using water as the coolant or moderator. (Or they scale the size of the reactor back to a scale that greatly mitigates the problems with using water.)"

                      "According to a timeline compiled by the World Nuclear Association, Gen IV reactors might enter commercial operation between 2020 and 2030.[4] However, as of 2021, no Gen IV projects have advanced significantly beyond the design stage, and several have been abandoned."

                      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_IV_reactor

                      Dated?….no, just not fantasy

                    • RedLogix …
                      7 February 2021 at 11:27 pm

                      Dated?….no, just not fantasy

                      I am going to require you to explain exactly what aspect of Gen 4 you regard as fantasy?

                      You linked to a wiki page that went into some considerable detail on the various approaches that fall under that very wide and generic umbrella term. Do you consider this wiki page a fantasy?

                      Do you consider the 70 plus companies and institutions currently researching and developing new reactors are all fantasies?

                      Do you consider the physics unproven and a fantasy?

                      Do you consider the ORNL MSR-E molten salt reactor that ran for seven years in the 1960's a fantasy?

                      Or are you just saying that because the industrialisation process is underway and not yet complete – that it cannot be done and must be a fantasy?

                      Or are you just one of those people who exist in every workplace I've ever been in who loudly insist that every proposed innovation or improvement cannot possibly work?

                    • Pat …
                      8 February 2021 at 1:07 am

                      You are going to require??

                      The fantasy…..you have no operational generator (projections dont produced power) …therefore you have nothing to base a programme of construction upon….if you manage a commercially viable generator (even tomorrow) you dont have the resources for the required rate of construction even if you miraculously found enough suitable sites to make anything more than a tiny dent in power requirements in the next 2 or 3 decades….(never mind the fact that whole of life carbon emissions are far from low)….and there is still the problem of waste containment (we still havnt managed to deal with that at the comparatively low rate of production after decades)

                      Theres are currently around 440 reactors producing around 10% of the worlds electricity (2% of energy)…even if you commissioned one reactor a week from now until 2050 you wouldnt replace half of that electricity generation

                      Oh and you dont have a trained /capable workforce ….not really the sort of work you want to leave to the semi skilled.

                    • RedLogix …
                      8 February 2021 at 9:00 am

                      Again you base all of your objections on obsolete and irrelevant information. Essentially strawman arguments.

                      never mind the fact that whole of life carbon emissions are far from low)….and there is still the problem of waste containment (we still havnt managed to deal with that at the comparatively low rate of production after decades)

                      Both factors that Gen4 designs tackle head on. The whole of life emissions issue is a separate topic – but essentially it’s a non-issue. Existing waste stockpiles become fuel for many Gen4 designs.

                      As for delivery, perhaps the boldest timeline comes from Thorcon who will almost certainly have a working 50MW pilot reactor up and running by 2025.

                      Their key stakeholder is a major South Korean shipbuilder – these guys make supertankers – and using exactly the same factories and methods they can build GenV reactors.

                      The steel weight of a 500 MW ThorCon is about 50,000 tons. The world’s largest shipyard can build more than 2,000,000 steel tons of ships per year. A single shipyard can produce 20 GW’s of ThorConIsle power per year. In terms of resource requirements, one gigawatt of ThorCon power is not a big deal. The scale up rate will not be limited by shipyard capacity, but by the rate at which the turbogenerators can be built.

                      That's 40 new 500MW reactors per year from just one existing shipyard. All of it based on an engineering approach your author has personally been involved in and can vouch for how dramatically effective it is. And the above is just one of at least 20 molten salt companies and maybe up to 70 working in the larger Gen4 space. They won't all succeed – but it will only take one to make the breakthrough.

                      After nearly 40 years of research stagnation, nuclear power is undergoing a dramatic and resurgence of development. All the information is out there – you only have to look.

                    • Pat …
                      8 February 2021 at 9:08 am

                      What part of 'projections' do you not understand?…..and projections that have been consistently unmet

                  • Drowsy M. Kram …
                    7 February 2021 at 7:29 pm

                    Our motto is "Nuclear energy for all, nuclear weapons for none".

                    That's a hard sell.

                    Iran's nuclear program was launched in the 1950s with the help of the United States as part of the Atoms for Peace program.

                    As of 2015, Iran's nuclear program has cost $100 billion in lost oil revenues and lost foreign direct investment because of international sanctions ($500 billion, when including other opportunity costs).
                    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran

                    France generates 70% of it electricity from nuclear power; Iran <2%. Is mistrust of (certain) leaders and/or ideologies/beliefs a brake on the proliferation of nuclear reactors? Another advantage of renewables, IMHO – try constructing WMDs from solar panels and/or wind turbines smiley
                    Here's a recent grab bag of nuclear energy's promises and problems.

                    Safeguards, non-proliferation and peaceful nuclear energy [Ragheb, 27 Jan. 2021]
                    [Re: “Escape Velocity”] For humans to spread all of life throughout the Milky Way galaxy and beyond in the known universe, nuclear energy will be their most valuable tool.

                    • RedLogix …
                      7 February 2021 at 11:37 pm

                      Has anyone ever covertly produced weapons grade material directly from a functioning power reactor?

                      It's always been a hypothetical possibility – but the reality is that all those nations who produce weapons do so using specific facilities designed for the purpose.

                      Yes proliferation is a potential risk, but it's an entirely manageable one. I've read a number of complex technical arguments on the topic, but the overall impression I have is that if anyone really wants a weapon, there are much easier more straightforward ways than trying to filch material from a power reactor.

                  • Drowsy M. Kram …
                    8 February 2021 at 2:09 am

                    "Has anyone ever covertly produced weapons grade material directly from a functioning power reactor?"

                    Not sure about anyone – does South Africa count? In that case fuel enrichment processes might have served as a cover for the enrichment of weapons-grade materials.

                    "Yes proliferation is a potential risk, but it's an entirely manageable one."

                    Entirely manageable? India, Pakistan, North Korea, Israel…

                    Maybe who/whatever was responsible for managing the real risk of proliferation has upped their game – we can only hope.

                    Is the 'potential' risk of global warming "entirely manageable'? How about the 'potential' risk of widespread ecocide, or a global pandemic?

                    We may have to agree to disagree about the wisdom of regarding serious (global) risks as "entirely manageable", unless accepting risks (e.g. the risk of death due to COVID-19 infection) is part of the ‘management’ strategy.

                    • RedLogix …
                      8 February 2021 at 9:16 am

                      Most Gen 4 designs avoid nuclear processing in country. The optimum approach is to produce the 'nuclear island' in a central, tightly managed facility, and ship it to site as a sealed unit, then return it at it's 'end of life'. The opportunity to extract weapons grade material under these conditions is vanishingly small. It would be the least attractive approach to building a weapon imaginable.

                      Fearmongering up a tiny risk to deny the opportunity to tackle climate change really begs the question of your motives here. Nothing in life is risk-free – and demanding that it must be is the counsel of a fool.

                  • Drowsy M. Kram …
                    8 February 2021 at 10:30 am

                    Dear RL. my reply was in good faith. Since you've now questioned my motives and played the 'fool' card, I'm bailing before you play the ‘genocidal anti-human‘ card. I do, however, appreciate your unique PoV and sustained efforts to chart a path that might safeguard civilisation.

                    • RedLogix …
                      8 February 2021 at 11:34 am

                      Why play the proliferation card when there is scant evidence that it's relevant?

                      Demanding perfection before making any change is an old fallacy, one that's usually employed by people who want to obstruct change for reasons they never really come clear on.

                      Your approach here reminds me of the furor that arose in the 1800s when people seriously objected to school children converting from slate to pen and paper. Look it up.

                  • Drowsy M. Kram …
                    8 February 2021 at 11:54 am

                    I'm going to resist the temptation to say what your approach here reminds me of, and simply note that not everyone shares your PoV – vive la différence.

                    Humanitarian impacts and risks of use of nuclear weapons
                    12. It is possible to conceptualize the increasing risk of nuclear weapons being used according to the following four risk-of-use scenarios:

                    a) doctrinal use of nuclear weapons, i.e. the use of nuclear weapons as outlined and envisaged in declared policies, doctrines, strategies and concepts

                    b) escalatory use, i.e. the use of nuclear weapons in an ongoing situation of tension or conflict

                    c) unauthorized use, i.e. the non-sanctioned use of nuclear weapons by a non-state actor

                    d) accidental use, i.e. the use of nuclear weapons through error, including technical malfunction and human error.

                    https://www.icrc.org/en/document/humanitarian-impacts-and-risks-use-nuclear-weapons

                    • RedLogix …
                      8 February 2021 at 12:19 pm

                      Conflating reasonable concerns about weapons with power generation is like banning gas barbecues because of flamethrowers.

                      Every day fossil fuels kill 10000 people from air pollution, yet you raise no objections to this. Why not?

                      And climate change presents a far greater and imminent risk we all understand but the one technology we do have to address it, you would deny us. Baffling.

                  • Drowsy M. Kram …
                    8 February 2021 at 12:29 pm

                    RL, like you I’d prefer that fossil fuel use be phased out sooner rather than later – we just have different views on the best way to do this.

                    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel_phase-out

                    If I ruled the world then I'd consider alternatives to the 'nuclear power solution', but I'm not in a position to deny you/us anything. Baffling.

                    Every day fossil fuels kill 10000 people from air pollution, yet you raise no objections to this. Why not?

                    I await your next attack line with baited breath smiley

                    • RedLogix …
                      8 February 2021 at 1:20 pm

                      Because you quibble over vanishingly small proliferation risks that are nothing by comparison.

                  • Foreign waka …
                    8 February 2021 at 1:56 pm

                    RL: France's electricity need is covered by 70% of nuclear generation, they also export energy around Europe so generating income. Its a junkie policy as generators do have a finite lifespan and the need for energy and income generation cannot be so easily replaced. Neither material nor for those with financial interests. It is truly a pandoras box.

                    Lets not forget, it was the French that sunk the Rainbow Warrior and the value of silencing voices against nuclear must be worth a bundle as it was worth killing for.

                    https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/france.aspx

                  • Drowsy M. Kram …
                    8 February 2021 at 3:18 pm

                    @RL (1:20 pm) – "Vanishingly small" and "nothing by comparison" in your opinion.

                    While I agree that the challenges and risks of the (potential) proliferation of nuclear power and nuclear weapons are not unconquerable, I don’t agree that they are "vanishingly small". We can only speculate about the future of nuclear proliferation.

                    Here are a few links to recent articles in support of my opinion. Happy to agree to disagree – another point of difference, apparently.

                    https://www.csis.org/analysis/nuclear-proliferation-challenges-facing-biden-administration

                    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nonproliferation-expert-warns-leaders-arent-focused-on-nuclear-weapons-threat/

                    Heed the doomsday alarm clock
                    The world has plenty on its mind. Even so, it cannot afford to downplay the dangers of nuclear proliferation. Today’s nuclear diplomacy may seem a slog, but it is as nothing compared with the lethal instabilities that arise whenever regional nuclear-armed rivals confront each other. There is no time to lose.
                    https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/300217145/the-world-is-facing-an-upsurge-of-nuclear-proliferation

                    The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons – What’s Next?
                    While most non-nuclear weapon states support the Treaty, nuclear-weapon states, nuclear-possessor states, and their allies continue to oppose the Treaty.

                    Indeed, as forcibly stated by another leading nuclear disarmament advocacy group, the Asia Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, there is no prospect whatever of any of the nuclear-armed states joining the treaty. So the TPNW will not eliminate one nuclear weapon, and will do nothing to reduce the number or intensity of global nuclear risks that run the fault lines of Asia and the Middle East. Nor will it do anything to lessen the tensions resulting from 70 years of nuclear confrontation between America and Russia. Existing nuclear arms control agreements that had moderated that conflict are dead or dying.
                    https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/banning-nuclear-weapons-dont-be-deceived/

                    Nuclear Proliferation: The Next Wave in 2020
                    What will nuclear proliferation look like in the future? While the quest for nuclear weapons has largely quieted after the turn of the 21st century, states are still interested in acquiring nuclear technology. Nuclear latency, an earlier step on the proliferation pathway, and here defined as operational uranium enrichment or plutonium reprocessing capability, is increasingly likely to be the next phase of proliferation concern. The drivers of nuclear latency, namely security factors, including rivalries with neighboring adversaries and the existence of alliances, are especially consequential in an increasingly challenging geopolitical environment. Though poised to play a significant role in international politics moving forward, latency remains a core area of exploration and subject of debate within the nuclear weapons literature writ large. While in many ways similar to nuclear weapons’ proliferation, the pursuit of nuclear latency has distinct features that merit further attention from scholars and policymakers alike.

              • Pat …
                7 February 2021 at 6:12 pm

                "A prime example of ideology trumping basic science and engineering."

                Bollocks…a prime example of expert advice overcoming vested interest

                [deleted]

                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France#:~:text=Nuclear%20power%20is%20the%20largest,highest%20percentage%20in%20the%20world.&text=EDF%20is%20substantially%20owned%20by,85%25%20shares%20in%20government%20hands.

                As stated earlier the policy was developed following expert advice, nothing to do with the Greens….nuclear has too many problems that need addressing before it can be considered a viable option and frankly we dont have the time or the resources….and its probably an energy cost anyway

                [unquoted and overlong cut and paste that triggered the spam filter deleted]

                • Pat …
                  8 February 2021 at 12:35 pm

                  Duplicate post (virtually) that was caught up in premod before i realised I was in pre mod

                  • Incognito …
                    8 February 2021 at 12:40 pm

                    Yup, I left it for the Author to sort it out but for some reason he didn’t!? Got enough to deal with here as it is.

              • Tricledrown …
                8 February 2021 at 10:38 am

                Red Logics your Carbon use figures don't include the cost of digging up Uranium processing millions of tons of earth to get the yellow keg.Then the cost of building a massive concrete power plant.

                Then the cost of decommissioning power plants is many times the cost of construction.

  6. UncookedSelachimorpha 6
    7 February 2021 at 2:18 pm

    Excellent and thought-provoking post. My first introduction to the Kaya Identity, which makes a lot of sense.

    Tend to agree that blanket opposition to nuclear energy is a really bad idea. Needs to be done right, but probably can be done right.

  7. Ad 7
    7 February 2021 at 3:31 pm

    I'd like to see nuclear-powered spacecraft get us to Mars nice and fast to set up a colony.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/03/world/nuclear-powered-rocket-scn-spc-intl/index.html

    Free as a Belter!

    • The Al1en 7.1
      7 February 2021 at 3:48 pm

      Just finished series 5 – Excellent TV sci fi.

    • joe90 7.2
      7 February 2021 at 3:53 pm

      Manéo living the life..

    • RedLogix 7.3
      7 February 2021 at 4:36 pm

      Oddly enough it was a NASA scientist Kirk Sorensen who was working on exactly this 'how to power a Mars expedition' problem in the late 90's who made the critical 're-discovery' of the long forgotten ORNL molten salt reactor experiment in 2000.

      He literally rescued all the old documentation dating from the 60's from being sent to the dump with hours to spare.

      • Snape 7.3.1
        8 February 2021 at 8:47 am

        I like what I’ve read about Gen 4 reactors, but disappointed by the timeframe. Construction starting in the 2030’s at the soonest?

        “Depending on their respective degree of technical maturity, the first Generation IV systems are expected to be deployed commercially around 2030-2040.”

        https://energycentral.com/c/ec/forecast-future-gen-iv-reactors-5050-chance-success-three-types

        • RedLogix 7.3.1.1
          8 February 2021 at 9:46 am

          Construction starting in the 2030’s at the soonest?

          Yes sadly the consequence of a lost 40 years of development due largely to an irrational fearmongering of nuclear power that has stifled investment in the next Gen designs for far too long.

          I'll briefly give some historic perspective on this. By the early 1970's it was clear that the ORNL MSR-E was a technical success, but the Nixon administration decided for mostly political reasons to back an alternative 'fast breeder' design that promised to make unlimited amounts of it's own fuel. Plus lots of weapons grade plutonium as a Cold War bonus. That this program was also to be located in a key SoCal electorate was a desirable bit of porkbarrelling on the side.

          The MSR-E program was abruptly defunded and forgotten about. It's leader Alvin Weinberg was squeezed out. By the mid-80's however the fast breeder was shown to be a dead end – the economics of fuel production made no sense. It was not the uranium that was expensive but it's fabrication and nor was there the same pressing need for plutonium. (The Russians made one work, but they abandoned it for much the same reasons, over-complex and too expensive to make a profit.)

          Unfortunately the decision to drop the MSR was never re-visited, and the industry in the mean-time had committed to a fleet of the original PWR designs at large scale – all with the vulnerability of using using water as their coolant and moderator. Then in 1979 we got Three Mile Island (the exact event Weinberg had warned against) – and the anti-nuclear movement went into overdrive – forcing on the industry rafts of over-regulation that imposed huge costs. Nuclear power suddenly went from being very competitive at around $1000/GW to uncompetitive at over $4000/GW.

          The fossil fuel companies were delighted with their handiwork.

          Then of course the great drama of Chernobyl. Again exploited by anti-nuclear activists such as the ridiculous Caldicott who is on record as claiming it killed 'more people than the Black Death'. That would be somewhere around 100m people – an utter absurdity that was swallowed whole by legions. (Even her more usual claim of 1m deaths was insanely overblown.)

          When in fact both events actually demonstrate the exact opposite of what the irrational fearmongers were spewing.

          After a tsunami struck the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in Japan eight years ago today, triggering the meltdowns of three reactors, many believed it would result in a public health catastrophe.

          “By now close to one million people have died of causes linked to the Chernobyl disaster,” wrote Helen Caldicott, an Australian medical doctor, in The New York Times. Fukushima could “far exceed Chernobyl in terms of the effects on public health.”

          …

          But now, eight years after Fukushima, the best-available science clearly shows that Caldicott’s estimate of the number of people killed by nuclear accidents was off by one million. Radiation from Chernobyl will kill, at most, 200 people, while the radiation from Fukushima and Three Mile Island will kill zero people.

          In other words, the main lesson that should be drawn from the worst nuclear accidents is that nuclear energy has always been inherently safe.

          As a result of these events the industry diverted much of it's resources chasing a chimera of 'improved safety' to maintain it's existing fleet of PWR reactors – instead of developing the next generation. In the face of irrational public hostility it hunkered down instead of moving forward.

          It's my contention that if we had got a working MSR reactor in the mid-70’s – as we should have – we would not be here having this discussion about climate change.

  8. Snape 8
    8 February 2021 at 9:29 am

    What’s worse for an ecosystem, high levels of radioactive contamination, or human beings? Chernobyl suggests the latter:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XaUNhqnpiOE

    • Tricledrown 8.1
      8 February 2021 at 9:48 am

      Snape Chernobyl won't be safe for several thousand years.Then if underfunded containment strategies fail your argument is a false equivalence not unlike the short term thinking that has lead humans to continually destroy the plant.

      • RedLogix 8.1.1
        8 February 2021 at 9:58 am

        What exactly do you mean by safe?

        You do realise that it was only one of four reactors on site – the other three continued to operate for at least another decade afterwards with no problems for the people who worked there.

        Reactor No. 1 and 3 continued to operate after the disaster. Reactor No. 2 was permanently shut down in 1991 after a fire broke out due to a faulty switch in a turbine. Reactors No. 1 and 3 were eventually closed due to an agreement Ukraine made with the EU in 1995.

        In the meantime WHO has reliably estimated that air pollution from fossil fuel use kills about 4m people a year. That's 10,000 per fucking day. More people every day that nuclear power in the very worst possible interpretation ever has.

        All the anti-nuclear campaign has ever achieved is mass death.

      • Snape 8.1.2
        8 February 2021 at 11:56 am

        Trickledrown,

        Chernobyl was safer for humans prior to the accident, but was a dangerous, unwelcoming place for animals like lynx, brown bear and wolves. Now it’s a haven:

        “Many people think the area around the Chernobyl nuclear plant is a place of post-apocalyptic desolation. But more than 30 years after one of the facility’s reactors exploded, sparking the worst nuclear accident in human history, science tells us something very different.

        Researchers have found the land surrounding the plant, which has been largely off limits to humans for three decades, has become a haven for wildlife, with lynx, bison, deer and other animals roaming through thick forests. This so-called Chernobyl Exclusion Zone (CEZ), which covers 2,800 square km of northern Ukraine, now represents the third-largest nature reserve in mainland Europe and has become an iconic – if accidental – experiment in rewilding.”

        https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/how-chernobyl-has-become-unexpected-haven-wildlife

        • RedLogix 8.1.2.1
          8 February 2021 at 12:08 pm

          Yes. That was one of the first things I read that gave a clue that my prior anti nuclear thinking might not be correct at all.

          • Snape 8.1.2.1.1
            8 February 2021 at 12:55 pm

            RedLogix,

            Thanks for the historical perspective. This is a topic I’ve never spent much time on.

    • Pat 8.2
      8 February 2021 at 10:07 am

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_New_Safe_Confinement

      and thats 'projected' to last only 100 years, and then we do it all over again (or not)

      • Redlogix 8.2.1
        8 February 2021 at 11:38 am

        100 years or so is quite long enough to develop a method of permanently dealing with it.

        Containment is just a holding pattern.

        • Pat 8.2.1.1
          8 February 2021 at 11:53 am

          lmao…ever the optimist….you may also wish to consider that Ukraine is the poorest European country so im sure theyll be up for the ongoing monitoring and maintenance…and of course in a hundred years (if it lasts that long) you wont be around to explain why your prediction didnt eventuate.

          • RedLogix 8.2.1.1.1
            8 February 2021 at 12:00 pm

            Look back 100 years and tell me if nothing has changed.

            There is my optimism.

            • Pat 8.2.1.1.1.1
              8 February 2021 at 12:05 pm

              Yep..its changed, and not as predicted by the optimists

              • RedLogix …
                8 February 2021 at 12:10 pm

                As Ad put it, stop painting all of history as tragedy.

                • Pat …
                  8 February 2021 at 12:18 pm

                  Lol…if you stop with the pipe dreams

                  • RedLogix …
                    8 February 2021 at 12:28 pm

                    Again you paint Gen4 as a pipe dream or a fantasy.

                    Success is difficult, but failure is only assured to those who will not try.

                    • Pat …
                      8 February 2021 at 12:39 pm

                      and stupidity is basing your future energy supply on an unproven and undeliverable theoretical source….meanwhile the world has a job to do and no time to waste

                    • RedLogix []
                      8 February 2021 at 1:10 pm

                      What exactly are you claiming is 'unproven'?

                      Be specific. The argument that 'it hasn't been delivered yet' doesn't count. You have to show why you think it cannot be done.

                      Besides Thorcons reactor is directly based on the MSR which ran for seven years in the 60s. What more proven are you going to demand?

                    • Pat …
                      8 February 2021 at 1:27 pm

                      round and round in circles we go…you havnt countered one point with anything other than hope…it isnt a viable plan.

                      How much time do you think you have?

                    • RedLogix []
                      8 February 2021 at 3:11 pm

                      I've pointed to a substantial number of development programs many of which are well past the 'hope' stage. Far too many to clutter this thread with, but the info is all there for anyone who cares to look.

                      You on the other hand have made a claim that it cannot be done and produced nothing to back it.

                    • Pat …
                      8 February 2021 at 3:52 pm

                      You have provided nothing except development projects which have to date missed all their self promoted deadlines…you have yet to address the wherewithal to deliver said generation and you fail to address the time frame…in short you have nothing.

                      If a flotilla of ship borne gen 4 reactors turn up at ports in the next 2 or 3 years ready to be plugged in to national grids then you may have the beginnings of a case….and that aint gonna happen.

                    • RedLogix []
                      8 February 2021 at 4:58 pm

                      The only deadline I've referenced so far is Thorcons expectation to have a 50MW pilot plant running by 2025. It's hard to have missed that.

                      Most others have reasonable plans to go commercial late 2020s or early 2030s

                      Stop making shit up.

                    • Pat …
                      8 February 2021 at 5:19 pm

                      No shit being made up by this commenter …nor any unobtainable goals.

                      Ive lost count of the opportunities you have been provided to address the question of time and you consistently ignore it….so have the courage of your convictions and put a date and number on when and how much power these wondrous 4th gen reactors will be supplying a significant amount of the worlds energy?

                      And then you can set about addressing the other limitations.

                    • RedLogix …
                      8 February 2021 at 11:01 pm

                      Ive lost count of the opportunities you have been provided to address the question of time and you consistently ignore it

                      This is getting beyond absurd – I addressed precisely that in the comment above. The earliest we are likely to see a Gen4 design is the Thorcon 50MW pilot reactor that's been commissioned by the Indonesian govt in around 2025.

                      As for the other 70 odd programs in existence – all of them project a deliverable sometime between late 2020's and the early 2030's. This is entirely reasonable given most only really got underway in the past few years and I imagine you'd want them to take the time necessary to get it right.

                      Many are well past the concept stage, advanced simulations and preliminary design; in this respect they know their reactors will run. The real challenges now are aspects like detailed validation of instrumentation and balance of plant optimisation, supply chain materials and vendor equipment, HAZOP's, regulatory approvals and the development of operational and maintenance procedures. Some are close to non-fission pilot plant status.

                      Turning a proposal design into an buildable plant is by far the largest cost of building a new reactor, and you only make that kind of investment if you're confident you're going to get to an outcome.

                      Despite this you have made three specific claims:

                      1. That the entire Gen 4 program is a fantasy, a pipedream and unachievable, when there is ample evidence of substantial investment and progress.
                      2. That the Gen4 program has missed deadlines when in fact all the proposed delivery dates are in the future.
                      3. That in order to prove Gen4 is real I have to specify detailed deliveries years in advance of the fact.

                      All three are absurdities, and you've produced no evidence to justify them. In this I've decided you're trolling this thread.

                      Consider carefully if you decide to reply to this.

  9. Robert Guyton 9
    8 February 2021 at 10:24 am

    This post: "Escape Velocity", could well have been titled, "The Future is Nuclear!".

    The original title reminds me of the story of the steel manhole cover that was blasted into space as a result of an underground explosion – it certainly reached escape velocity. I suppose the underlying message from RedLogix is "we can leave this stinking mess far behind us, populate a new planet and get it right this time" but I'm not a believer in running for the hills and leaving everyone else to moulder; I think we carry our baggage with us where ever we go and until we've got our heads and hearts sorted, we'll just keep repeating history 🙂

  10. WeTheBleeple 10
    8 February 2021 at 11:21 am

    Good to see we're still costing the costings to the cost of preventing total catastrophe – which apparently would come at quite a cost!

    Where would we be without the bean counters and middle men muddling minds over the matter of maintenance of middle management.

    The question seems to be – how close to the status quo can we possibly get for we, the few, are very very comfortable.

    • Pat 10.1
      8 February 2021 at 11:57 am

      if you mean cost in monetary terms then it isnt a factor….time and resources however are costs that cannot be ignored for they determine what is possible

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  • Olywhites and Time Bandits

    About a decade ago I worked with a bloke called Steve. He was the grizzled veteran coder, a few years older than me, who knew where the bodies were buried - code wise. Despite his best efforts to be approachable and friendly he could be kind of gruff, through to ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago
  • Why were the 1930s so hot in North America?

    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters and Bob Henson Those who’ve trawled social media during heat waves have likely encountered a tidbit frequently used to brush aside human-caused climate change: Many U.S. states and cities had their single hottest temperature on record during the 1930s, setting incredible heat marks ...
    Skeptical Science
    2 days ago
  • Throwback Thursday – Thinking about Expressways

    Some of the recent announcements from the government have reminded us of posts we’ve written in the past. Here’s one from early 2020. There were plenty of reactions to the government’s infrastructure announcement a few weeks ago which saw them fund a bunch of big roading projects. One of ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    2 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Thursday, July 25

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Thursday, July 25 are:News: Why Electric Kiwi is closing to new customers - and why it matters RNZ’s Susan EdmundsScoop: Government drops ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • The Possum: Demon or Friend?

    Hi,I felt a small wet tongue snaking through one of the holes in my Crocs. It explored my big toe, darting down one side, then the other. “He’s looking for some toe cheese,” said the woman next to me, words that still haunt me to this day.Growing up in New ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    2 days ago
  • Not a story

    Yesterday I happily quoted the Prime Minister without fact-checking him and sure enough, it turns out his numbers were all to hell. It’s not four kg of Royal Commission report, it’s fourteen.My friend and one-time colleague-in-comms Hazel Phillips gently alerted me to my error almost as soon as I’d hit ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Thursday, July 25

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Thursday, July 25, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day were:The Abuse in Care Royal Commission of Inquiry published its final report yesterday.PM Christopher Luxon and The Minister responsible for ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • A tougher line on “proactive release”?

    The Official Information Act has always been a battle between requesters seeking information, and governments seeking to control it. Information is power, so Ministers and government agencies want to manage what is released and when, for their own convenience, and legality and democracy be damned. Their most recent tactic for ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • 'Let's build a motorway costing $100 million per km, before emissions costs'

    TL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:Transport and Energy Minister Simeon Brown is accelerating plans to spend at least $10 billion through Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) to extend State Highway One as a four-lane ‘Expressway’ from Warkworth to Whangarei ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Lester's Prescription – Positive Bleeding.

    I live my life (woo-ooh-ooh)With no control in my destinyYea-yeah, yea-yeah (woo-ooh-ooh)I can bleed when I want to bleedSo come on, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)You can bleed when you want to bleedYea-yeah, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)Everybody bleed when they want to bleedCome on and bleedGovernments face tough challenges. Selling unpopular decisions to ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • Casey Costello gaslights Labour in the House

    Please note:To skip directly to the- parliamentary footage in the video, scroll to 1:21 To skip to audio please click on the headphone icon on the left hand side of the screenThis video / audio section is under development. ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    3 days ago
  • Why is the Texas grid in such bad shape?

    This is a re-post from the Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler Headline from 2021 The Texas grid, run by ERCOT, has had a rough few years. In 2021, winter storm Uri blacked out much of the state for several days. About a week ago, Hurricane Beryl knocked out ...
    Skeptical Science
    3 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on a textbook case of spending waste by the Luxon government

    Given the crackdown on wasteful government spending, it behooves me to point to a high profile example of spending by the Luxon government that looks like a big, fat waste of time and money. I’m talking about the deployment of NZDF personnel to support the US-led coalition in the Red ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    3 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Wednesday, July 24

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:40 am on Wednesday, July 24 are:Deep Dive: Chipping away at the housing crisis, including my comments RNZ/Newsroom’s The DetailNews: Government softens on asset sales, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • LXR Takaanini

    As I reported about the city centre, Auckland’s rail network is also going through a difficult and disruptive period which is rapidly approaching a culmination, this will result in a significant upgrade to the whole network. Hallelujah. Also like the city centre this is an upgrade predicated on the City ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    3 days ago
  • Four kilograms of pain

    Today, a 4 kilogram report will be delivered to Parliament. We know this is what the report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care weighs, because our Prime Minister told us so.Some reporter had blindsided him by asking a question about something done by ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Wednesday, July 24

    TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Wednesday, July 24, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Beehive: Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced plans to use PPPs to fund, build and run a four-lane expressway between Auckland ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Luxon gets caught out

    NewstalkZB host Mike Hosking, who can usually be relied on to give Prime Minister Christopher Luxon an easy run, did not do so yesterday when he interviewed him about the HealthNZ deficit. Luxon is trying to use a deficit reported last year by HealthNZ as yet another example of the ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • A worrying sign

    Back in January a StatsNZ employee gave a speech at Rātana on behalf of tangata whenua in which he insulted and criticised the government. The speech clearly violated the principle of a neutral public service, and StatsNZ started an investigation. Part of that was getting an external consultant to examine ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Are we fine with 47.9% home-ownership by 2048?

    Renting for life: Shared ownership initiatives are unlikely to slow the slide in home ownership by much. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:A Deloitte report for Westpac has projected Aotearoa’s home-ownership rate will ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Let's Win This

    You're broken down and tiredOf living life on a merry go roundAnd you can't find the fighterBut I see it in you so we gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsWe gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsAnd I'll rise upI'll rise like the dayI'll rise upI'll rise unafraidI'll rise upAnd I'll ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Waimahara: The Singing Spirit of Water

    There’s been a change in Myers Park. Down the steps from St. Kevin’s Arcade, past the grassy slopes, the children’s playground, the benches and that goat statue, there has been a transformation. The underpass for Mayoral Drive has gone from a barren, grey, concrete tunnel, to a place that thrums ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    4 days ago
  • A major milestone: Global climate pollution may have just peaked

    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Global society may have finally slammed on the brakes for climate-warming pollution released by human fossil fuel combustion. According to the Carbon Monitor Project, the total global climate pollution released between February and May 2024 declined slightly from the amount released during the same ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Tuesday, July 23

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Tuesday, July 23 are:Deep Dive: Penlink: where tolling rhetoric meets reality BusinessDesk-$$$’s Oliver LewisScoop: Te Pūkenga plans for regional polytechs leak out ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Tuesday, July 23

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Tuesday, July 23, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Health: Shane Reti announced the Board of Te Whatu Ora- Health New Zealand was being replaced with Commissioner Lester Levy ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • HealthNZ and Luxon at cross purposes over budget blowout

    Health NZ warned the Government at the end of March that it was running over Budget. But the reasons it gave were very different to those offered by the Prime Minister yesterday. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon blamed the “botched merger” of the 20 District Health Boards (DHBs) to create Health ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • 2500-3000 more healthcare staff expected to be fired, as Shane Reti blames Labour for a budget defic...

    Long ReadKey Summary: Although National increased the health budget by $1.4 billion in May, they used an old funding model to project health system costs, and never bothered to update their pre-election numbers. They were told during the Health Select Committees earlier in the year their budget amount was deficient, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    4 days ago
  • Might Kamala Harris be about to get a 'stardust' moment like Jacinda Ardern?

    As a momentous, historic weekend in US politics unfolded, analysts and commentators grasped for precedents and comparisons to help explain the significance and power of the choice Joe Biden had made. The 46th president had swept the Democratic party’s primaries but just over 100 days from the election had chosen ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    5 days ago
  • Solutions Interview: Steven Hail on MMT & ecological economics

    TL;DR: I’m casting around for new ideas and ways of thinking about Aotearoa’s political economy to find a few solutions to our cascading and self-reinforcing housing, poverty and climate crises.Associate Professor runs an online masters degree in the economics of sustainability at Torrens University in Australia and is organising ...
    The KakaBy Steven Hail
    5 days ago
  • Reported back

    The Finance and Expenditure Committee has reported back on National's Local Government (Water Services Preliminary Arrangements) Bill. The bill sets up water for privatisation, and was introduced under urgency, then rammed through select committee with no time even for local councils to make a proper submission. Naturally, national's select committee ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Vandrad the Viking, Christopher Coombes, and Literary Archaeology

    Some years ago, I bought a book at Dunedin’s Regent Booksale for $1.50. As one does. Vandrad the Viking (1898), by J. Storer Clouston, is an obscure book these days – I cannot find a proper online review – but soon it was sitting on my shelf, gathering dust alongside ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell On The Biden Withdrawal

    History is not on the side of the centre-left, when Democratic presidents fall behind in the polls and choose not to run for re-election. On both previous occasions in the past 75 years (Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1968) the Democrats proceeded to then lose the White House ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    5 days ago
  • Joe Biden's withdrawal puts the spotlight back on Kamala and the USA's complicated relatio...

    This is a free articleCoverageThis morning, US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race. And that is genuinely newsworthy. Thanks for your service, President Biden, and all the best to you and yours.However, the media in New Zealand, particularly the 1News nightly bulletin, has been breathlessly covering ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    5 days ago
  • Why we have to challenge our national fiscal assumptions

    A homeless person’s camp beside a blocked-off slipped damage walkway in Freeman’s Bay: we are chasing our tail on our worsening and inter-related housing, poverty and climate crises. Photo: Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Existential Crisis and Damaged Brains

    What has happened to it all?Crazy, some'd sayWhere is the life that I recognise?(Gone away)But I won't cry for yesterdayThere's an ordinary worldSomehow I have to findAnd as I try to make my wayTo the ordinary worldYesterday morning began as many others - what to write about today? I began ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • A speed limit is not a target, and yet…

    This is a guest post from longtime supporter Mr Plod, whose previous contributions include a proposal that Hamilton become New Zealand’s capital city, and that we should switch which side of the road we drive on. A recent Newsroom article, “Back to school for the Govt’s new speed limit policy“, ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Monday, July 22

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Monday, July 22 are:Today’s Must Read: Father and son live in a tent, and have done for four years, in a million ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Monday, July 22

    TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Monday, July 22, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:US President Joe Biden announced via X this morning he would not stand for a second term.Multinational professional services firm ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #29

    A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 14, 2024 thru Sat, July 20, 2024. Story of the week As reflected by preponderance of coverage, our Story of the Week is Project 2025. Until now traveling ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago
  • I'd like to share what I did this weekend

    This weekend, a friend pointed out someone who said they’d like to read my posts, but didn’t want to pay. And my first reaction was sympathy.I’ve already told folks that if they can’t comfortably subscribe, and would like to read, I’d be happy to offer free subscriptions. I don’t want ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • For the children – Why mere sentiment can be a misleading force in our lives, and lead to unex...

    National: The Party of ‘Law and Order’ IntroductionThis weekend, the Government formally kicked off one of their flagship policy programs: a military style boot camp that New Zealand has experimented with over the past 50 years. Cartoon credit: Guy BodyIt’s very popular with the National Party’s Law and Order image, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • A friend in uncertain times

    Day one of the solo leg of my long journey home begins with my favourite sound: footfalls in an empty street. 5.00 am and it’s already light and already too warm, almost.If I can make the train that leaves Budapest later this hour I could be in Belgrade by nightfall; ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • The Chaotic World of Male Diet Influencers

    Hi,We’ll get to the horrific world of male diet influencers (AKA Beefy Boys) shortly, but first you will be glad to know that since I sent out the Webworm explaining why the assassination attempt on Donald Trump was not a false flag operation, I’ve heard from a load of people ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago
  • It's Starting To Look A Lot Like… Y2K

    Do you remember Y2K, the threat that hung over humanity in the closing days of the twentieth century? Horror scenarios of planes falling from the sky, electronic payments failing and ATMs refusing to dispense cash. As for your VCR following instructions and recording your favourite show - forget about it.All ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Bernard’s Saturday Soliloquy for the week to July 20

    Climate Change Minister Simon Watts being questioned by The Kākā’s Bernard Hickey.TL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 20 were:1. A strategy that fails Zero Carbon Act & Paris targetsThe National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government finally unveiled ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Pharmac Director, Climate Change Commissioner, Health NZ Directors – The latest to quit this m...

    Summary:As New Zealand loses at least 12 leaders in the public service space of health, climate, and pharmaceuticals, this month alone, directly in response to the Government’s policies and budget choices, what lies ahead may be darker than it appears. Tui examines some of those departures and draws a long ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    1 week ago
  • Flooding Housing Policy

    The Minister of Housing’s ambition is to reduce markedly the ratio of house prices to household incomes. If his strategy works it would transform the housing market, dramatically changing the prospects of housing as an investment.Leaving aside the Minister’s metaphor of ‘flooding the market’ I do not see how the ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • A Voyage Among the Vandals: Accepted (Again!)

    As previously noted, my historical fantasy piece, set in the fifth-century Mediterranean, was accepted for a Pirate Horror anthology, only for the anthology to later fall through. But in a good bit of news, it turned out that the story could indeed be re-marketed as sword and sorcery. As of ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā's Chorus for Friday, July 19

    An employee of tobacco company Philip Morris International demonstrates a heated tobacco device. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Friday, July 19 are:At a time when the Coalition Government is cutting spending on health, infrastructure, education, housing ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Friday, July 19

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 8:30 am on Friday, July 19 are:Scoop: NZ First Minister Casey Costello orders 50% cut to excise tax on heated tobacco products. The minister has ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Roundup 19-July-2024

    Kia ora, it’s time for another Friday roundup, in which we pull together some of the links and stories that caught our eye this week. Feel free to add more in the comments! Our header image this week shows a foggy day in Auckland town, captured by Patrick Reynolds. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Climate Wrap: A market-led plan for failure

    TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. A discussion recorded yesterday is in the video above and the audio of that sent onto the podcast feed.The Government released its draft Emissions Reduction ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Tobacco First

    Save some money, get rich and old, bring it back to Tobacco Road.Bring that dynamite and a crane, blow it up, start all over again.Roll up. Roll up. Or tailor made, if you prefer...Whether you’re selling ciggies, digging for gold, catching dolphins in your nets, or encouraging folks to flutter ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Trump’s Adopted Son.

    Waiting In The Wings: For truly, if Trump is America’s un-assassinated Caesar, then J.D. Vance is America’s Octavian, the Republic’s youthful undertaker – and its first Emperor.DONALD TRUMP’S SELECTION of James D. Vance as his running-mate bodes ill for the American republic. A fervent supporter of Viktor Orban, the “illiberal” prime ...
    Bowalley Road
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Friday, July 19

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 19, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:The PSA announced the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) had ruled in the PSA’s favour in its case against the Ministry ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Hoon around the week to July 19

    TL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers last night features co-hosts and talking with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent talking about the National-ACT-NZ First Government’s release of its first Emissions Reduction Plan;University of Otago Foreign Relations Professor and special guest Dr Karin von ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #29 2024

    Open access notables Improving global temperature datasets to better account for non-uniform warming, Calvert, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society: To better account for spatial non-uniform trends in warming, a new GITD [global instrumental temperature dataset] was created that used maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to combine the land surface ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 week ago

  • Joint statement from the Prime Ministers of Canada, Australia and New Zealand

    Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on the need for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and the risk of expanded conflict between Hizballah and Israel. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The human suffering is unacceptable. It cannot continue.  We remain unequivocal in our condemnation of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago
  • AG reminds institutions of legal obligations

    Attorney-General Judith Collins today reminded all State and faith-based institutions of their legal obligation to preserve records relevant to the safety and wellbeing of those in its care. “The Abuse in Care Inquiry’s report has found cases where records of the most vulnerable people in State and faith‑based institutions were ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • More young people learning about digital safety

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government’s online safety website for children and young people has reached one million page views.  “It is great to see so many young people and their families accessing the site Keep It Real Online to learn how to stay safe online, and manage ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • Speech to the Conference for General Practice 2024

    Tēnā tātou katoa,  Ngā mihi te rangi, ngā mihi te whenua, ngā mihi ki a koutou, kia ora mai koutou. Thank you for the opportunity to be here and the invitation to speak at this 50th anniversary conference. I acknowledge all those who have gone before us and paved the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Employers and payroll providers ready for tax changes

    New Zealand’s payroll providers have successfully prepared to ensure 3.5 million individuals will, from Wednesday next week, be able to keep more of what they earn each pay, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Revenue Minister Simon Watts.  “The Government's tax policy changes are legally effective from Wednesday. Delivering this tax ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Experimental vineyard futureproofs wine industry

    An experimental vineyard which will help futureproof the wine sector has been opened in Blenheim by Associate Regional Development Minister Mark Patterson. The covered vineyard, based at the New Zealand Wine Centre – Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa, enables controlled environmental conditions. “The research that will be produced at the Experimental ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Funding confirmed for regions affected by North Island Weather Events

    The Coalition Government has confirmed the indicative regional breakdown of North Island Weather Event (NIWE) funding for state highway recovery projects funded through Budget 2024, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Regions in the North Island suffered extensive and devastating damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Floods, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Indonesian Foreign Minister to visit

    Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, will visit New Zealand next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced.   “Indonesia is important to New Zealand’s security and economic interests and is our closest South East Asian neighbour,” says Mr Peters, who is currently in Laos to engage with South East Asian partners. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Strengthening partnership with Ngāti Maniapoto

    He aha te kai a te rangatira? He kōrero, he kōrero, he kōrero. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the aspirations of Ngāti Maniapoto, Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka says. “My thanks to Te Nehenehenui Trust – Ngāti Maniapoto for bringing their important kōrero to a ministerial ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Transport Minister thanks outgoing CAA Chair

    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has thanked outgoing Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority, Janice Fredric, for her service to the board.“I have received Ms Fredric’s resignation from the role of Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority,” Mr Brown says.“On behalf of the Government, I want to thank Ms Fredric for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Test for Customary Marine Title being restored

    The Government is proposing legislation to overturn a Court of Appeal decision and amend the Marine and Coastal Area Act in order to restore Parliament’s test for Customary Marine Title, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says.  “Section 58 required an applicant group to prove they have exclusively used and occupied ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Opposition united in bad faith over ECE sector review

    Regulation Minister David Seymour says that opposition parties have united in bad faith, opposing what they claim are ‘dangerous changes’ to the Early Childhood Education sector, despite no changes even being proposed yet.  “Issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation, has led ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Kiwis having their say on first regulatory review

    After receiving more than 740 submissions in the first 20 days, Regulation Minister David Seymour is asking the Ministry for Regulation to extend engagement on the early childhood education regulation review by an extra two weeks.  “The level of interest has been very high, and from the conversations I’ve been ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government upgrading Lower North Island commuter rail

    The Coalition Government is investing $802.9 million into the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines as part of a funding agreement with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, and the Greater Wellington and Horizons Regional Councils to deliver more reliable services for commuters in the lower North Island, Transport Minister Simeon ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government moves to ensure flood protection for Wairoa

    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced his intention to appoint a Crown Manager to both Hawke’s Bay Regional and Wairoa District Councils to speed up the delivery of flood protection work in Wairoa."Recent severe weather events in Wairoa this year, combined with damage from Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • PM speech to Parliament – Royal Commission of Inquiry’s Report into Abuse in Care

    Mr Speaker, this is a day that many New Zealanders who were abused in State care never thought would come. It’s the day that this Parliament accepts, with deep sorrow and regret, the Report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care.  At the heart of this report are the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges torture at Lake Alice

    For the first time, the Government is formally acknowledging some children and young people at Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital experienced torture. The final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care “Whanaketia – through pain and trauma, from darkness to light,” was tabled in Parliament ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges courageous abuse survivors

    The Government has acknowledged the nearly 2,400 courageous survivors who shared their experiences during the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse in State and Faith-Based Care. The final report from the largest and most complex public inquiry ever held in New Zealand, the Royal Commission Inquiry “Whanaketia – through ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Half a million people use tax calculator

    With a week to go before hard-working New Zealanders see personal income tax relief for the first time in fourteen years, 513,000 people have used the Budget tax calculator to see how much they will benefit, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis.  “Tax relief is long overdue. From next Wednesday, personal income ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Paid Parental Leave improvements pass first reading

    Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says a bill that has passed its first reading will improve parental leave settings and give non-biological parents more flexibility as primary carer for their child. The Regulatory Systems Amendment Bill (No3), passed its first reading this morning. “It includes a change ...
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