Gamechanger?

Written By: - Date published: 5:29 pm, June 20th, 2011 - 50 comments
Categories: hone harawira, Kelvin Davis, mana-party, Maori Issues - Tags:

The Te Tai Tokerau by-election has the potential to be a game-changer.  If it comes off for Kelvin on Saturday the result may shake up a few other predictions for the general election – another example of the wisdom of Harold Wilson’s famous remark that a week is a long time in politics.

Not so long ago all sorts of people were predicting a clean sweep for the Maori Party in the Maori electorates. Then when Hone broke ranks it was Hone was a shoe-in; a brilliant strategy according to  academic and outside-left media commentator Bryce Edwards. The change of expectations has also made another from the old Alliance, Matt McCarten, a bit snippy and seeing all sorts of dark plots in his Herald column.

What has made the difference? In my view Hone has committed two of the besetting sins of politics – falling victim to hubris, and believing his own bullshit.  Kelvin’s style is different from Hone’s, quietly assertive, with Hone’s jibe that Kelvin’s just a teacher showing how far off the mark he is. Voters aren’t silly and they don’t mind a choice. This by-election has given them a choice between a leader with a proven success record and one who promises far more than he can ever deliver.

Now it’s down to who goes out on the day. After the battle of the hustings will come the battle of the explanations – they will be fascinating.

50 comments on “Gamechanger? ”

  1. bomber 1

    LOL – Kelvin will win. That’s the worst spin Job I’ve yet to see on The Standard. What a Mana win means this week – http://tumeke.blogspot.com/2011/06/what-mana-win-means-this-week.html

    • I would not be so confident Bomber.
       
      And I speak as someone who admires quite a bit of what Hone says and does although as an admittedly died in the wool Labour supporter.
       
      The feedback out in West Auckland is remarkably good.  Hone’s negatives are well known.  And people are hurting and turning to Labour.
       
      I appreciate that Maori politics is very complex, the communitation between communities extraordinarily good and the participants are sophisticated.
       
      But it looks to me like it will be really close and election day may decide it.
       
      Guess who will have the better turnout strategy?
       
      Mike I believe the last Ipredict figure for Kelvin is 35c.

      Edit – probably a typo Lanth.
       

  2. Lanthanide 2

    Eh? I look on Ipredict right now, and the odds are:
    Mana, if registered: 58.26%
    Maori Party: 0.021%
    Mana, if not registered: 9.98% (other)
    Labour: 35.43%

    Not sure where you got the 68/53 numbers, especially as that adds up to well over 100%.

    The contracts have been floating around the above numbers for the last few days. The ‘other’ contract is basically the chance that the Mana party is failed to be registered in time, but Hone still wins.

    Edit: Looks like the author simply clicked on Browse Predictions, the first contract showing Labour to win Ikaroa-Rawhiti at the general election at 68%, and the next contract under it being Mana to win TTT by-election at (currently) 58%.

  3. Tiger Mountain 3

    We’ll see Smithie this time next week, talk about hubris. Labour did not seem able to contemplate growing the left vote.

  4. Sookie 4

    Sorry, I disagree with the Standard party line on this one. I want Hone to win his seat back and I think he will scrape through. He’s not a sell out, he’s very entertaining, he drives right wing rednecks mental and Kelvin Davis is already a MP.

    [lprent: There is no ‘line’. Authors write their opinions.

    We get a wee bit annoyed with people who stupidly don’t read the about and policy and understand this. I give them educational bans to demonstrate with emphasis how much annoys me (the result of other innumerable trolls making the same screwup).

    The only reason you are not copping a ban is because I haven’t had to warn you before. ]

    • r0b 4.1

      There is no Standard party line, there are only the views of the individual authors.

    • If Davis wins (which I doubt and seriously hope not), it won’t be because the best candidate won and it certainly won’t be the best thing for genuinely Left politics in this country.

      As a Labour member I find the tone of Labour’s campaign against Hone Harawira offensive, short sighted and thoroughly disingenuous. It really pisses me off and just drives me further from Labour. (Still, I’m sure the party is just overflowing with offers of help and supportive voices to get the message out for the upcoming election, so what would that matter.)

      And I thoroughly agree Davis has all the charisma of a baked potato. A good person no doubt, but in all the years I have known him, he has never struck me as particularly talented or leftwing.

  5. It will be interesting and I expect a good win from Hone and that will be great for Mana, the left and this country – much better than if davis wins IMO.

    • I wonder if it is good for the left.
       
      If Mana win then:
       
      1.  They will run hard at the next election.
      2.  Greens will be hurt.
      3.  Labour may be hurt.
      4.  There is the risk that they lose in November and 2 or 3 % of the left vote disappears.
       
      If Mana lose then:
       
      1.  Labour gets a big boost.
      2.  Far left voters can support Greens.
      3.  Labour can make a run at the Maori Party held seats with some momentum.

      • IrishBill 5.1.1

        That’s some patronising bullshit you’re spouting there Micky.

        • mickysavage 5.1.1.1

          Don’t think so Irish.  And not sure what you are referring to.  Mana losing will help Labour and probably the greens.

          I see some have suggested that Mana will energise the dispossessed and persuade them to vote.  I do not think so.

      • lefty 5.1.2

        Labour is not part of the left. It gave up the right to describe itself that way a long time ago. It is a neo liberal party and as such frequently ends up hurting those who support it most. However it has many left members and is immeasurably better for the working class than its fellow neo liberal party National. Labour offers no long term future for either people or planet – unless you jettisson your support for markets over people. Worst of all you present a huge barrier to the growth of a genuine working class movement.
        You are quite right to want to see the end of Mana because they shame you in the same way the Alliance did. The Greens of course only pose a danger to themselves.

        • Draco T Bastard 5.1.2.2

          +1

          Been saying similar for awhile now. Labour are the centre-right party, Greens centre-left (well, they were back when Rod Donald and Fitzsimons(SP?) was in charge). NZ1st and the Peter Dunne parties are actually centre but tend to the authoritarian.

          A strong left party would be good but I don’t think that Mana will be it.

        • soadpaper 5.1.2.3

          True- I’m so sick of Labour and its hopeless middle class squishy neo liberalism. Hone may not be perfect but whats left?

      • davidc 5.1.3

        Mana winning can only be bad for the left. Mana will never take a Nat or Act vote and if Mana win it will harden a lot of mild center voters to vote Nat as they dont want to see Lab in bed with Hone.

  6. Tiger Mountain 6

    You are not wrong there Irish in my opinion. If Mana wins next weekend then the left pool potentially grows, even a little.

    • The Greens have hurt themselves with their blue/green teasing
    • Labour can only do better in some of the remaining Maori seats
    • “There is the risk that they lose in November and 2 or 3 % of the left vote disappears”. Contradiction Mickey

    • TM

      If Mana win 2 or 3% of the vote in November and don’t win TTT then the vote does disappear.  This could be an election result changing event.

      I am referring to the possibility that Hone wins on Saturday and loses in November which I accept is not likely.

  7. bomber 7

    Mickey – you can’t be serious?

    1: 2.34% of Maori Party vote is wasted, Mana would aim at that.
    2: If Mana ran candidates in the other Maori Electorates, Labour would almost certainly benefit from the split vote and gain them back.
    3: The last election was one of the lowest turn outs and Mana reaches out to those voters rather than cannabolize the Green vote or Labour vote.
    4: A sub 5% threshold representation gives a higher punt than just Kelvin winning one electorate.
    5: The Greens won’t get the left vote with their hunt for the mythical right wing environmentalist.

    Come on, Labour need better friends than Winston Peters and the alternative is a Brash – Key Privatization Government. Mickey, you’re kidding right?

    • Sookie 7.1

      Hi Bomber, I like your blog, and I miss Alt TV terribly 🙂 I’m a Green for this reason- take care of the environment, and everything else, including social justice issues, will follow. I’m a snotty urban liberal with little time for granola wafflers and anti fluoride, anti 1080, anti measles shots type tub thumpers. I like the way the Greens have smartened themselves up, and I don’t think they’ve sold out. I also don’t think there’s a snowball’s chance in hell of them aligning themselves with the Nats. If all the Nats were as cuddly and ‘progressive’ as Key pretends to be, then maybe, but they aren’t. They’re the same sad old bastards that made life so fun in the 90’s. There’s enough votes for Mana, the Greens and Labour to co-exist providing we mobilise all those ‘can’t be arsed’ voters. Why can’t we all get along eh?

  8. millsy 8

    Really. If the left believe that Hone Hawawira is their ‘saviour’ then were all fucked. We might as well concede to the right now. Save the bother of the election.

    June the 25th will be the date that Hone Harawira’s political career ends. And good riddance

    • Craig Glen Eden 8.1

      Exactly millsy Hone left wing what a bloody joke. While he might have a personality that appeals to some on the left, if this guy was left wing their would have been no way he would have gone anywhere near Tariana. Hone left wing yeah what ever! Hones a mummies boy and she sure as hell has no interest in promoting anything left wing or worker friendly.
      I suspect this will be close but one thing I know for sure Hone is no left wing worker friendly socialist.

    • Who is ‘left’ in your book millsy – if you don’t think Hone is – is Mana? Minto? Sykes?

      I think they all are and they aren’t the saviour but they will get into the machinery of power and fight for the people and we need everything to stop the shit that is about to hit the fan when the gnats get back in.

      • millsy 8.2.1

        There is no doubting that Mana is a ‘left’ party, but it is a party with a strong tino rangatiratanga tinge to it.

        Nothing wrong with that I suppose, but what the likes of Minto (who is on record as having strong sympathies towards Maori issue such as the TR movement) and the Workers’s Party, and every other ragtag band of Trotskyites and Marxist dont seem to get is that there are huge imcompatabilities between this and the broader aims of the left movement.

        I point to the aborted privatisation of Te Urerewa National Park for instance. Large parts of the far left supported Tuhoe’s claim, even though it would mean the transfer of one of our largest national parks into private ownership.

        I also refer to Whanau Ora. Does Minto, a supporter of the welfare state really want the transfer of the provision of social services, ie health, education, welfare, etc into iwi hands?

        I find Mana would be conflicted in the support for a social democratic welfare state with a mixed economy or a confederation of tribal cantons.

        • marty mars 8.2.1.1

          Well I know we agree on many issues e hoa and maybe this just isn’t one of them. Thanks for your considered reply I appreciated it.

    • Monty 8.3

      Damn – I agree with Millsy for the first time ever – John Hatfield is a hater and a Wrecker and left politics and in fact all politics will be better without this racist arrogant MoFo.

      But Labour are buggered for 2011 regardless – see the latest Roy Morgan Poll out last night? their last poll was a rogue result –

  9. daveo 9

    TTT where?

  10. fabregas4 10

    Kelvin has been less than inspiring on each of the debates – nothing much to say really. Appears to be a hollow man to me. Where is he (and the Labour Party for that matter) on the National Standards policy that can really hurt education in this country but especially in the North where social deprivation starts kids off behind the rest and almost certainly doomed to be below these mythical Standards – failures at five!

    Hone, like his delivery or not, actually says what many in the North are saying. Kelvin has quickly turned into a politician.

  11. gingercrush 11

    Well whatever happens turnout is going to be lousy. Turnout is lousy for Maori electorates in every general election. Just 63.25% in 2008. So someone will win Te Tai Tokerau with less than 40% of the population voting. Not very inspiring.

  12. I agree with Bomber. What would a Kelvin win mean? He can get in on the list anyway. Goff is not challenging Key, English and Brash in any meaningful way… a lot of labour members do not feel labour can win… if your own team does not feel victory… it ain’t over the horizon.

    Te Mana has a buzz, and a level of dedication not currently seen in the current labour party, or in the green party for that matter. Hone is not perfect, but he is a fighter… and as they say: who dares wins…

    It is worth reading this blog post by Morgan @ Maui Street:
    http://mauistreet.blogspot.com/2011/05/why-hone-will-win.html

  13. Milly.. the left does not need a saviour…

    it needs to get off its (far too fat middle-class white backside) and get out into communities and get organised… this is currently what Te Mana is doing. We will be having a similar debate later in the year post Hone being re elected as the Te Tai Tokerau MP and seeing what he and Kelvin have to offer the North and Aotearoa then…

  14. Mike Smith 14

    Thanks Lanthanide – my mistake. the odds are not as good as I thought. I’ve amended the post. I would still like to see Kelvin win – he’s no potato. As I said the battle of the explanations will be fascinating – and I look forward to it. We do need a debate that includes the broad left.

  15. “That’s some patronising bullshit you’re spouting there Micky” tautoko that Irish Bill

  16. the ‘broad left’ as in the non neoliberal ‘left’? let the debates begin….

  17. Maui 17

    What makes it even more interesting is that they will have to do it all again in a matter of months and will be able to learn from this round.

    The (public and private) post-mortems will be interesting.

    Amongst others, Crosby-Textor is watching with interest. Expect attack lines about wasting of public money in difficult times.

    Hone might run into difficulties in Ōtautahi (aka ‘Christchurch’),
    but they don’t vote in Te Tai Tokerau.

    • Lanthanide 17.1

      Why would Hone run into difficulties in Christchurch?

      Somewhat as an aside, but to do with Mana. John Minto mentioned possibly running in Epsom up against Brash et al. I think he should run in Wigram instead, far greater chance of winning there when really it’d be no hope in Epsom. I still don’t know for sure that Anderton is standing down (I haven’t seen any public statement that confirms he is not running again), but if he is, and Anderton put his weight behind Minto, he could possibly swing it. It would certainly give Mana a lot more credibility as a broad left-wing party if they won a non-Maori electorate seat.

  18. Peter Bains 18

    For once I am hoping for a Labour victory, Hone is a waste of space, he is like Peters, lion outside the ring, a mouse inside the governing tent.

  19. Bill 19

    When the leading representative of the (so-called) Labour Party can’t even hold a fucking hammer properly, it’s kind of indicative of something, duntyathink?….(TV3 ‘news’.)

  20. Irascible 20

    The argument that Mana & Hone are left wing is as erroneous as believing the John Key won’t sell off the State Assets. The myth makers are trying to present Mana & Hone as being genuinely concerned about social issues and having a focus the is opposed to the neo-liberal economic policies of NACTional when, in fact, the party is based on a single issue focused on a single individual whose political philosophy is one of selfish separatism developed from a single minded belief that he, and his hapu, have been the victims of deliberate social deprivation which as caused him to suffer from “post colonisation stress syndrome”. Hone’s politics are essentially conservative and reactionary, right wing rather than left wing.
    Davis, at least, knows that this by-election concerns all New Zealanders and not just the fate of one self-righteous ego bereft of policy or principle.

  21. ianmac 21

    Is it true that the Maori Party had no intention of trying to win? By choosing an unlikely candidate they leave votes open for Labour to win which gets rid of Hone. Strategic and Unscrupulous. (Steven Joyce the Adviser?)

  22. I can’t see it ianmac. Tariana is still not disposed towards labour. What a hatefest it is though. Hone and Mana must be really putting the fear into them because the lines against him and Mana have been unrelenting. If there was no other reason, that would surely be enough to sway the minds of ‘left thinking’ people – surely.

    • Jim Nald 22.1

      When you hear or read Tariana’s lines, listen very closely and carefully and you’ll get a sense they come from a dodgy place.

      • marty mars 22.1.1

        Indeed Jim.

        Hone bashing would have made a good drinking game but I suspect we don’t need any more of those games and anyway, after 5 minutes everyone would be reaching for the bucket anyway.

  23. North 23

    Well Mike I expect your explanations to be more predictable than elucidating or truly instructive.
    If Mana wins it’ll be justice, right, and common sense denied. If Labour wins it’ll be justice, right, and common sense vindicated.

    Either way, profoundly unenlightening and springing from an entirely Pakeha perspective. Like most of the comment here.

    Like it or not boys and girls you don’t have a vote in Tai Tokerau. It’s a little pathetic to pontificate as if Maori employing their own perspective in their voting is somehow non-legitimate. Yeah , OK, I know none of you ever actually said that, but that’s the tone.

    Get over it. It’s not your electorate and more or less pompously castigating Maori for not being acutely aware of the Labour Party’s immediate electoral advantage smells just a bit of post-colonial arrogance. That said it’s somewhat mitigating that it’s more subliminal than conscious. Still, your way or the highway ain’t good enough.

    Having been at the Native Affairs debate in Kaikohe Monday a week ago I have to say I was struck by the absence of viciousness which attended the whole event, before, during, and after. And the absence of the withering “look at me look at me I mock you so cleverly” articulation so fashionable in Pakeha political engagement and debate.

    No wonder Maori distrust and get hoha with “our” politics. And you buggers wail about Hone Harawira and his mouth ???

    Someone above, not caring to see what the mirror reflects obviously, actually mentioned “hubris”. The man seeks to be re-elected to Parliament as a representative of his own people in Tai Tokerau……..For God’s Sake……..Grow Up !

    Tough titty boys and girls, you fullas ain’t even got a vote on Saturday. It ain’t your patch…….get over it control freaks weeping about your disenfranchisement. Maori have lived with that forever.

  24. North 24

    It’ll also show the machine politicians inside or outside Parliament, such as Mike Smith,
    where to go……..go and get a remedy for their Captain Hobson “hubris”.

    “They’re a fine type ‘the Maori’…..as long as they know their place……..”

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    Trump Writes His Own Story: Would the “mainstream” media even try to reflect the horrified reaction of the MAGA crowd to the pop-pop-pop of the would-be assassin’s rifle, and Trump going down? Could it even grasp the sheer elation of the rally-goers seeing their champion rise up and punch the air, still alive, ...
    4 days ago
  • Dodging Bullets.

    Fight! Fight! Fight! Had the assassin’s bullet found its mark and killed Donald Trump, America’s descent into widespread and murderous violence – possibly spiralling-down into civil war – would have been immediate and quite possibly irreparable. The American Republic, upon whose survival liberty and democracy continue to depend, is certainly not ...
    4 days ago
  • 'Corruption First' Strikes Again

    There comes a point in all our lives when we must stop to say, “Enough is enough. We know what’s happening. We are not as stupid or as ignorant as you believe us to be. And making policies that kill or harm our people is not acceptable, Ministers.”Plausible deniability has ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā's Chorus for Thursday, July 18

    TL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:The inside stories of KiwiRail’s iRex debacle, Westport’s perma-delayed flood scheme and Christchurch’s post-quake sewer rebuild, which assumed no population growth, show just how deeply sceptical senior officials in Treasury, the Ministry of ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • What's that Jack Black?

    Ah-rah, deeSoo-guh-goo-gee-goo-geeGoo-guh fli-goo gee-gooGuh fli-goo, ga-goo-buh-deeOoh, guh-goo-beeOoh-guh-guh-bee-guh-guh-beeFli-goo gee-gooA-fliguh woo-wa mama Lucifer!I’m about ready to move on, how about you?Not from the shooting, that’s bad and we definitely shouldn’t have that. But the rehabilitation of Donald J Trump? The deification of Saint Donald? As the Great Unifier?Gimme a bucket.https://yellowscene.com/2024/04/07/trump-as-jesus/Just to re-iterate, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • June 2024: Earth’s 13th-consecutive warmest month on record

    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters and Bob Henson June 2024 was Earth’s warmest June since global record-keeping began in 1850 and was the planet’s 13th consecutive warmest month on record, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, or NCEI, reported July 12. As opposed to being focused in ...
    4 days ago
  • Connecting the dots and filling the gaps in our bike network

    This is a guest post by Shaun Baker on the importance of filling the gaps in our cycling networks. It originally appeared on his blog Multimodal Adventures, and is re-posted here with kind permission. In our towns and cities in Aotearoa New Zealand, there are areas in our cycling networks ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    4 days ago
  • Webworm Down Under Photos!

    Hi,I wanted to share a few thoughts and photos from the Webworm popup and Tickled screening we held in Auckland, New Zealand last weekend.In short — it was a blast. I mean, I had a blast and I hope any of you that came also had a blast.An old friend ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Thursday, July 18

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 6:30 am on Thursday, July 18 are:News: Christchurch's sewer systems block further housing developments RNZ’s Niva ChittockAnalysis: Interislander: Treasury, MoT officials' mistrust of KiwiRail led ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Thursday, July 18

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Thursday, July 18, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Verbatim: Climate Change Minister Simon Watts held a news conference in Auckland to release the Government’s Emissions Reduction Plan, including ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The politics of managed retreat

    Climate change deniers are now challenging the Government over a key climate change adaptation policy. That begs the question of whether New Zealand First will then support Government moves to implement processes to deal with a managed retreat for properties in danger of flooding because of sea level rise and ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • Some changes are coming

    Warm welcome again to those who are here. The Mountain Tui substack was officially started on the 2nd of July. I wrote about what led me here on this post. Since then, it’s been a learning to navigate the platform, get to meet those in the community, and basically be ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    5 days ago
  • About fucking time

    The US Supreme Court has been rogue for years, with openly corrupt judges making the law up as they go to suit themselves, their billionaire buyers, and the Republican Party. But now, in the wake of them granting a licence for tyranny, President Biden is actually going to try and ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Climate Change: False accounting and wishful thinking

    National released their draft 2026-2030 Emissions Reduction Plan today. The plan is required under the Zero Carbon Act, and must set out policies and strategies to meet the relevant emissions budget. Having cancelled all Labour's actually effective climate change policies and crashed the carbon price, National was always going to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • The Enemies Of Sunshine And Space.

    Our Houses? The Urban Density debate is a horrible combination of intergenerational avarice and envy, fuelled by the grim certainty that none of the generations coming up after them will ever have it as good as the Boomers. To say that this situation rankles among those born after 1965 is to ...
    5 days ago
  • Still the 5 Eyes Achilles Heel?

    The National Cyber Security Centre (NZSC), a unit in the Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) dedicated to cyber-security, has released a Review of its response to the 2021 email hacking of NZ members of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC, … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    5 days ago
  • Britain's Devastating Electoral Slip.

    Slip-Sliding Away: Labour may now enjoy a dominant position in Britain’s political landscape, but only by virtue of not being swallowed by it.THE BRITISH LABOUR PARTY’S “landslide victory” is nothing of the sort. As most people understand the term, a landslide election victory is one in which the incumbent government, or ...
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on why right wingers think all governments (including their own) are incompetent

    Since open denial of climate change is no longer a viable political option, denial now comes in disguise. The release this week of the coalition government’s ‘draft emissions reductions plan” shows that the Luxon government is refusing to see the need to cut emissions at source. Instead, it proposes to ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā's Chorus for Wednesday, July 17

    TL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy this morning are:Chris Penk is set to roll back building standards for insulation that had only just been put in place, and which had been estimated to save 40% from power costs, after builders ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Open Letter to Pharmac

    All this talk of getting oldIt's getting me down, my loveLike a cat in a bag, waiting to drownThis time I'm coming downAnd I hope you're thinking of meAs you lay down on your sideNow the drugs don't workThey just make you worse but I know I'll see your face ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • A blanket of misinformation

    Two old sayings have been on my mind lately. The first is: “The pen is mightier than the sword”, describing the power of language and communication to help or to harm. The other, which captures the speed with which falsehoods can become ingrained and hard to undo, is: “A lie can ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Wednesday, July 17

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day to 7:00 am on Wednesday, July 17 are:Scoop: Government considers rolling back home insulation standards RNZ’s Eloise GibsonNews: Government plans tree-planting frenzy as report shows NZ no longer ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Wednesday, July 17

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Wednesday, July 17 , the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day were:Simon Watts released the Government’s draft Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP), which included proposed changes to the Emissions Trading Scheme ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • “Shhhh” – National's 3 Waters is loaded with higher costs and lays a path to ...

    This is a long, possibly technical, but very, very important read. I encourage you to take the time and spread your awareness.IntroductionIn 2022, then Labour Party Prime Minister Jacinda Adern expended significant political capital to protect New Zealand’s water assets from privatisation. She lost that battle, and Labour and the ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • Plugging a video channel: Dr Gilbz

    Dr. Ella Gilbert is a climate scientist and presenter with a PhD in Antarctic climate change, working at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS). Her background is in atmospheric sciences and she's especially interested in the physical mechanisms of climate change, clouds, and almost anything polar. She is passionate about communicating climate ...
    6 days ago
  • Some “scrutiny” again

    Back in 2022, in its Open Government Partnership National Action Plan, the government promised to strengthen scrutiny of Official Information Act exemption clauses in legislation. Since then they've run a secret "consultation" on how to do that, with their preferred outcome being that agencies will consult the Ministry of Justice ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Crashing New Zealand's health system is not the way to prosperity, Prime Minister

    Another day, and yet another piece of bad news for New Zealand’s health system. Reports have come out that General Practitioners (GP) may have to close doors, or increase patient fees to survive. The so-called ‘capitation’ funding review, which supports GP practices to survive, is under way, and primary care ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • Closer Than You Think: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.

    Redefining Our Terms: “When an angry majority is demanding change, defending the status-quo is an extremist position.”“WHAT’S THIS?”, asked Laurie, eyeing suspiciously the two glasses of red wine deposited in front of him.“A nice drop of red. I thought you’d be keen to celebrate the French Far-Right’s victory with the ...
    6 days ago
  • Come on Darleen.

    Good morning all, time for a return to things domestic. After elections in the UK and France, Luxon gatecrashing Nato, and the attempted shooting of Trump, it’s probably about time we re-focus on local politics.Unless of course you’re Christopher Luxon and you’re so exhausted from all your schmoozing in Washington ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • How the Northwest was lost and may be won

    This is a guest post by Darren Davis. It originally appeared on his excellent blog, Adventures in Transitland, which we encourage you to check out. It is shared by kind permission. The Northwest has always been Auckland’s public transport Cinderella, rarely invited to the public funding ball. How did ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    6 days ago
  • The Kākā's Chorus for Tuesday July 16

    Luxon has told a Financial Times’ correspondent he would openly call out China’s spying in future and does not fear economic retaliation from Aotearoa’s largest trading partner.File Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Tuesday, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Tuesday, July 16

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 6:00 am on Tuesday, July 16 are:PM Christopher Luxon has given a very hawkish interview to the Financial Times-$$$ correspondent in Washington, Demetri Sevastopulu, saying ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Tuesday, July 16

    Photo by Ryunosuke Kikuno on UnsplashTL;DR: The top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day to 6:00 am are:BNZ released its Performance of Services Index for June, finding that services sector is at its lowest level of activity ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • The second crisis; assumption was the mother

    Late on the night of July 16, 1984, while four National Cabinet Ministers were meeting in the Beehive office of Deputy Prime Minister Jim McLay, plotting the ultimate downfall of outgoing Prime Minister Sir Robert Muldoon, another crisis was building up in another part of the capital. The United States ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago
  • Can we air condition our way out of extreme heat?

    This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler Air conditioning was initially a symbol of comfort and wealth, enjoyed by the wealthy in theaters and upscale homes. Over time, as technology advanced and costs decreased, air conditioning became more accessible to the general public. With global warming, though, ...
    7 days ago
  • Review: The Zimiamvian Trilogy, by E.R. Eddison (1935-1958)

    I have reviewed some fairly obscure stuff on this blog. Nineteenth century New Zealand speculative fiction. Forgotten Tolkien adaptations. George MacDonald and William Morris. Last month I took a look at The Worm Ouroboros (1922), by E.R. Eddison, which while not strictly obscure, is also not overly inviting to many ...
    7 days ago
  • Media Link: AVFA on the Trump assassination attempt.

    In this episode of “A View from Afar” Selwyn Manning and I discuss the attempt on Donald Trump’s life and its implications for the US elections. The political darkness grows. ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    7 days ago
  • Law & Order: National Party 1, Police 0, Public -1

    What happened?Media is reporting that police have lost in their pay dispute with the Coalition Government.Some of you might remember that the police rejected Labour’s previous offer in September, 2023, possibly looking forward to be taken care of by the self-touted ‘Party of Law and Order’ - National.If you look ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    7 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the Trump shooting and a potential hike in fees for visiting the doctor

    Having watched Donald Trump systematically exploit social grievances, urge people not to accept his election loss and incite his followers to violent insurrection… it is a bit hard to swallow the media descriptions over the past 24 hours of Trump being a “victim” of violence. More like a case of ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā's Chorus for Monday July 15

    The exploitation of workers on the national fibre broadband rollout highlights once again the dark underbelly of our ‘churn and burn’ economy. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:An extraordinary Steve Kilgallon investigation into ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Monday, July 15

    Photo by Jessica Loaiza on UnsplashTL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last three days to 9:00 am on Monday, July 15 are:Investigation: Immigration NZ refused to prosecute an alleged exploiter despite a mountain of evidence - ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • City Centre Rebuild: How Soon Is Now?

    Patrick Reynolds is deputy chair of the City Centre Advisory Panel and a director of Greater Auckland There is ongoing angst about construction disruption in the city centre. And fair enough: it’s very tough, CRL and other construction has been going on for a very long time. Like the pandemic, ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    1 week ago
  • Peril, dismay, resolution

    This afternoon we rolled into Budapest to bring to a close our ride across Europe. We did 144 km yesterday, severe heat messages coming in from the weather app as we bounced along unformed Hungarian back roads and a road strip strewn with fallen trees from an overnight tornado. Somewhere ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • Bullet the Blue Sky

    In the locust windComes a rattle and humJacob wrestled the angelAnd the angel was overcomeYou plant a demon seedYou raise a flower of fireWe see them burnin' crossesSee the flames, higher and higherBullet the blue skyBullet the blue skyThe indelible images, the soundtrack of America. Guns, assassinations, where-were-you-when moments attached ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Monday, July 15

    TL;DR: The top six announcements, rulings, reports, surveys, statistics and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the three days to 6:00 am on Monday, July 23 are:University of Auckland researcher Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy published an analysis of the impact of Auckland's 2016 zoning reforms.BNZ's latest Performance ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s diary for the week to July 23 and beyond

    TL;DR: The six key events to watch in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy in the week to July 23 include:PM Christopher Luxon has returned from a trip to the United States and may hold a post-Cabinet news conference at 4:00 pm today.The BusinessNZ-BNZ PSI survey results for June will be released this ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Was The Assassination Attempt Fake?

    Hi,It’s in incredible photo, and we’re going to be talking about it for a long time:Trump, triumphantly raising his hand in the air after being shot. Photo credit: Evan VucciYou can watch what happened on YouTube in real time, as a 20-year-old from Pennsylvania lets off a series of gunshots ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 week ago
  • 40 years ago, inside the crisis that made modern NZ

    It had rained all day in Auckland, and the Metro Theatre in Mangere was steamed up inside as more and more people arrived to celebrate what had once seemed impossible. Sir Robert Muldoon had lost the 1984 election. “Piggy” Muldoon was no more. Such was the desire to get rid ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    1 week ago

  • Minister to speak at Australian Space Forum

    Minister for Space and Science, Innovation and Technology Judith Collins will travel to Adelaide tomorrow for space and science engagements, including speaking at the Australian Space Forum.  While there she will also have meetings and visits with a focus on space, biotechnology and innovation.  “New Zealand has a thriving space ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago
  • Climate Change Minister to attend climate action meeting in China

    Climate Change Minister Simon Watts will travel to China on Saturday to attend the Ministerial on Climate Action meeting held in Wuhan.  “Attending the Ministerial on Climate Action is an opportunity to advocate for New Zealand climate priorities and engage with our key partners on climate action,” Mr Watts says. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 hours ago
  • Oceans and Fisheries Minister to Solomons

    Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is travelling to the Solomon Islands tomorrow for meetings with his counterparts from around the Pacific supporting collective management of the region’s fisheries. The 23rd Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Committee and the 5th Regional Fisheries Ministers’ Meeting in Honiara from 23 to 26 July ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government launches Military Style Academy Pilot

    The Government today launched the Military Style Academy Pilot at Te Au rere a te Tonga Youth Justice residence in Palmerston North, an important part of the Government’s plan to crackdown on youth crime and getting youth offenders back on track, Minister for Children, Karen Chhour said today. “On the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Nine priority bridge replacements to get underway

    The Government has welcomed news the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has begun work to replace nine priority bridges across the country to ensure our state highway network remains resilient, reliable, and efficient for road users, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“Increasing productivity and economic growth is a key priority for the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Update on global IT outage

    Acting Prime Minister David Seymour has been in contact throughout the evening with senior officials who have coordinated a whole of government response to the global IT outage and can provide an update. The Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet has designated the National Emergency Management Agency as the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • New Zealand, Japan renew Pacific partnership

    New Zealand and Japan will continue to step up their shared engagement with the Pacific, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.    “New Zealand and Japan have a strong, shared interest in a free, open and stable Pacific Islands region,” Mr Peters says.    “We are pleased to be finding more ways ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • New infrastructure energises BOP forestry towns

    New developments in the heart of North Island forestry country will reinvigorate their communities and boost economic development, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones visited Kaingaroa and Kawerau in Bay of Plenty today to open a landmark community centre in the former and a new connecting road in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • 'Pacific Futures'

    President Adeang, fellow Ministers, honourable Diet Member Horii, Ambassadors, distinguished guests.    Minasama, konnichiwa, and good afternoon, everyone.    Distinguished guests, it’s a pleasure to be here with you today to talk about New Zealand’s foreign policy reset, the reasons for it, the values that underpin it, and how it ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Delivering 24 hour pothole repairs

    Kiwis and freight operators will benefit from the Coalition Government delivering on its commitment to introduce targets that will ensure a greater number of potholes on our state highways are identified and fixed within 24 hours, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “Increasing productivity to help rebuild our economy is a key ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Peer Support Specialists rolled out in hospitals

    Five hospitals have been selected to trial a new mental health and addiction peer support service in their emergency departments as part of the Government’s commitment to increase access to mental health and addiction support for New Zealanders, says Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey.  “Peer Support Specialists in EDs will ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Consultation opens for the Emissions Reduction Plan

    The Government’s draft Emissions Reduction Plan shows we can stay within the limits of the first two emissions budgets while growing the economy, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “This draft Emissions Reduction Plan shows that with effective climate change policies we can both grow the economy and deliver our ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Benefit stats highlight need for welfare reset

    The coalition Government is providing extra support for job seekers to ensure as many Kiwis as possible are in work or preparing for work, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “While today’s quarterly data showing a rise in the number of people on Jobseeker benefits has been long ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • School attendance continues to increase

    Provisional school attendance data for Term 2 2024 released today has shown more students are back in class compared to last year, with 53.1 per cent of students regularly attending, compared with 47 per cent in Term 2 2023, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. “The Government has prioritised student ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • $22.7m of West Coast resilience projects underway

    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed news of progress being made by the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) on the first of several crucial resilience projects underway on the South Island’s West Coast.“State highways across the West Coast are critical lifelines for communities throughout the region, including for freight and tourism. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Migrant school leavers to get part-time work rights

    The coalition Government is providing migrant school leavers with greater opportunities, by increasing access to part-time work rights for those awaiting the outcome of a family residence application, Immigration Minister Erica Stanford has announced.  “Many young people who are part of a family residence application process are unable to work. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Funding to support use of NZ Sign Language

    Seven projects have received government funding totalling nearly $250,000 to maintain and promote the use of New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL). Initiatives that received an NZSL Board Community Grants this year include camps that support the use of NZSL through physical and sensory activities, and clubs where Deaf people and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Inflation data shows progress in economic recovery

    Today’s Consumer Price Index data which has inflation at 3.3 per cent for the year to July 2024, shows we are turning our economy around and winning the fight against rampant inflation, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says.  “While today’s data will be welcome news for Kiwis, I know many New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Experts to advise Minister on Oranga Tamariki

    The Oranga Tamariki Ministerial Advisory Board has been re-established by the Minister for Children, Karen Chhour. “I look forward to working with the new board to continue to ensure Oranga Tamariki and the care and protection system, are entirely child centric,” Minister Chhour says. “The board will provide independent advice ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Expectations set for improved medicines access

    Associate Health Minister David Seymour says he has set clear expectations for Pharmac around delivering the medicines and medical technology that Kiwis need.  “For many New Zealanders, funding for pharmaceuticals is life or death, or the difference between a life of pain and suffering or living freely. New cancer medicines ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Regional Development Minister to host summits

    Regional Development Minister Shane Jones will hold a series of nationwide summits to discuss regional priorities, aspirations and opportunities, with the first kicking off in Nelson on August 12. The 15 summits will facilitate conversations about progressing regional economic growth and opportunities to drive productivity, prosperity and resilience through the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government delivers new school for Rolleston

    The Coalition Government is addressing growing demands on Canterbury’s school network, by delivering a new primary school in Rolleston, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. Within Budget 24’s $400 million investment into school property growth, construction will begin on a new primary school (years 1-8) in Selwyn, Canterbury.  Rolleston South Primary ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • New speed camera signs to improve safety

    The Government is welcoming the rollout of new speed camera signs for fixed speed cameras to encourage drivers to check their speeds, improving road safety and avoiding costly speeding tickets, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Providing Kiwis with an opportunity to check their speed and slow down in high crash areas ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • NZ, Korea strengthen relationship

    New Zealand and the Republic of Korea continue to strengthen their relationship, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.   “New Zealand and Korea have a long history – from New Zealand soldiers fighting in the Korean War, through to our strong cooperation today as partners supporting the international rules-based order.    ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Investing for future growth in tourism and hospitality

    The Government is moving forward with recommendations from the Tourism Data Leadership Group, beginning with establishing a Tourism Data Partnership Fund says Tourism and Hospitality Minister Matt Doocey. “The Tourism Data Partnership Fund is funded through the International Visitor Conservation and Tourism Levy (IVL) and will provide up to $400,000 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • 4000 more job seekers to get case managers

    A new over-the-phone employment case management service will see thousands more job seekers under the age of 25 supported to find work, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston has announced. “MSD case managers provide valuable support to help people into work, but less than a third of those receiving ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Trade Minister to attend G7 meeting in Italy

    Trade Minister Todd McClay will attend the Group of Seven (G7) Trade Ministers meeting in Reggio Calabria, Italy next week. This is the first time New Zealand has been invited to join the event, which will be attended by some of the world’s largest economies and many of New Zealand’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Ministers reveal consequences for unruly Kāinga Ora tenants

    Ministers are pleased to see Kāinga Ora taking a stronger approach to managing unruly, threatening or abusive tenants, Housing Minister Chris Bishop and Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka say.    “For far too long, a small number of Kāinga Ora tenants have ridden roughshod over their neighbours because, under Kāinga ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Prime Minister wraps up US visit in California

    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has finished a successful four-day visit to the United States with meetings in California on his final day focusing on innovation and investment.  “It has been fantastic to be in San Francisco today seeing first-hand the deepening links between New Zealand and California. “New Zealand company, EV Maritime, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Prime Minister leads Indo-Pacific Four at NATO

    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon today chaired a meeting of the Indo-Pacific Four (IP4) countries – Australia, Japan, the Republic of Korea and New Zealand. The IP4 met in the context of NATO’s Summit in Washington DC hosted by President Biden. “Prosperity is only possible with security,” Mr Luxon says. “We need ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • District Court judges appointed

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