Written By:
James Henderson - Date published:
7:29 am, October 25th, 2012 - 46 comments
Categories: education, jobs, polls -
Tags:
A TV3 poll shows that 49% to 46% of people believe National is failing to build its promised “brighter future”. The two big weaknesses: jobs and education. By nearly 2 to 1 margins, people believe that National is failing to provide full employment (it says something that this isn’t actually a National Party goal) and failing to provide the best education system possible.
If I were the opposition, I would focus on these two weaknesses again and again and again, and use them to undermine National’s economic credibility and its ‘compassionate conservative’ spin. Win enough of the votes of the people dissatisfied with the government’s performance on these key issues, and offer a positive and credible alternative, and that’s how you’ll win the next election.
The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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Wow. 46% already believe the brighter future is happening. Thats an impressive starting point for 2012. I would have thought the figure would only be about 10%. No wonder John Key is so excited. I wonder how high that figure will go when the shackles of socialist restraints are loosened. Already we have the highly successful 90 day right to prove yourself, and a non existent Roll of Shame. Soon the disadvantaged youth will be given a step up from languishing on a benefit to the first rung on the employment ladder. Oil and rare metal exploration will provide more employment. The 7 pronged growth strategy is making progress daily. All on track.
Yip, because the National government took the figure from 0% to 46%. Sure.
You.ve been overdosing on your medication again little fisti…It’s getting easier to spot when that happens.. You start making Napoleonic noises whilst speaking on behalf of your imaginary empire…
Telling to note that you admit that the actual performance of your surrigate father has been an abysmal failure, to say the least…. Letting down the side there old chap…
But I wil concede that you are the right spokesman for the many thousands of citizens that are suffering what can only be described as congenital stupidity… We wouldn’t be having these periods of regression into our “proud” colonial past if it wasn’t for standard bearers for reactionary “intelligence” such as your estimable self little fisti…. That’s a Rah Rah Rah from the paddocks for you son…
Fisiani, your sarcastic irony is too much.
Wonder how low the figure will go if National really unleash the neo-liberal agenda they want to action. A whole lot more kiwis will be joining the disadvantaged youth as the non-existent ‘relentless focus on jobs’ BS gets rehashed yet again. The ‘7 pronged growth strategy’ is quickly heading the same way as the ’50 point strategy’, ’18 point plan’ ‘792 and a half brigher future plan’ etc etc. All on track for a change of Government in 2014.
When WILL Key deliver the brighter future he promised?
Thanks to Key a brighter financial future for Dotcoms lawyer for sure, not too bright for everyone else however.
This is excellent, showing the steady erosion under this government, but it hasn’t necessarily translated into the main polls yet, although hopefully in time, it will. I view that 3 News poll which had National on ~47% as an aberration, although they probably aren’t yet as low as the Roy Morgan.
In other words, yes, National are doing terribly, but no one sees Labour as being capable of anything different (yet). I’ve got tory mates now who are shifting their vote to the Greens, because at least they see competence in Norman and Turei. I’m also torn between loyalty and competence. Loyalty will probably win out in the end.
So, Mr Shearer, please, drop the nice guy routine and get the boot in, with some real ammo. Show that you can make hard decisions, and see them through. Being the nice guy is like military generals planning to fight the last war – it worked with Key post-Clark, but it won’t work in any future post-Key politics.
Why would it be a National party goal? Only left wing parties are foolish enough to try and make full employment a policy goal.
Untrue, left and right wing parties maintained full employment, or close to full employment for many years. The Economic Stabilisation Act, among other things, was a good measure for achieving that. We’d sacrifice a fair bit putting something similar back now, but it is achievable, and such a policy can be tory-proofed.
I agree. The National party prior to the late 1980’s was pretty much a left wing party in all but marketing. The economic distortions caused by attempting to maintain an artificially low unemployment level caused Nz no end of economic harm in the long term.
Oh yeah? Says who? Do you seriously expect anyone to take your word for it?
If Gosman says no true scotsman would eat oats without salt then it’s just the way it is OTH.
🙂
As opposed to the artificially high unemployment levels maintained today of course …..
example: policies to manufacture and provide NZ’s requirements in NZ compared to policies to manufacture and provide NZ’s requirements in foreign lands. Which policy is right gosman and why?
The flaw in the latter policy is perhaps exposed by this direct comparison …..
Imagine the North American Indians (before whitey arrival) happily going about their lives. The sioux men (indulge me on the sexism for a mo), on one side of the Blue Ridge Mountains, happily go about building and maintaining their teepees and other housing, planting and tending the crops, making jewellery etc.
Then one day, some big dopey chief decides to get the teepees and housing, jewellery and even their food supplies from the cheyenne, on the other side of the Blue Ridge Mountains next to the Shannondoah River (life is old there, older than the trees, younger than the mountains, blowing like a breeze..). This means all of the sioux men now have nix to do and their happy society begins to crumble at the edges as the bored non-useful men get …. well, you picture it…
They have the same teepees, same corn, same jewellery.
How is their society in a net benefit position?
Lets explore this little hypothetical world of yours to highlight the flaws in your thinking.
What would the reason be that the Sioux decide to purchase the items you listed from the Cheyenne, on the other side of the Blue Ridge Mountains? There are only really a few options, the main ones being the items provided are either better quality and/or cheaper or that the decision was made for corrupt reasons (i.e. the Chief in your story is getting a kickback).
How would the Sioux pay for the items they get from the Cheyenne? They would have to produce something that the Cheyenne would want otherwise there would be no trade.
Why would people not be employed in the particular area in which the Cheyenne were interested in as opposed to being unemployed?
Their society is in a net benefit position because they also get the Cheyenne women.
The trouble is that winners write history. Most long term economic analysis would say that the rot set in (with international comparisons) after 1984. NZ needed to modernise its economy, it didn’t need to do it at the speed with which it did.
And it shouldn’t have gone with the neo-liberal mindset.
No parties in NZ have the guts to challenge those who control them, and some of those party members , will actually know that there is NOTHING they can currently do, or are prepared to do, in order that NZ can recover, but they will leep lying and promising pipe dreams…
People will keep swallowing the lies, as it allows them to pretend that they don’t have to get off their collective arsess, and demand accountability etc!
The scary part is all the people who apparently believe the government is NOT failing in these areas, or who don’t know. How can people be so blind?
It’s a well studied phenomenon.
Bizarrely, refutation can actually strengthen false beliefs.
Surely refuting a false belief would result in a change of said belief.
i.e. to change a strong belief the individual actually reason for compliance to
that belief needs to be understood.
So to alter a believers belief its best to target why their strongly held view
is no longer in their interests. aka the wannabee Senator in the US who
said God wanted rape, but has now been forced back to the podium
because it doesn’t look like its helping him or his party.
So nothing bizarre about it, poor refutation will strengthen false beliefs.
Mainly because the Government isn’t failing in these two areas.
NZ unemployment is one of the lowest in the Western World.
The NZ education system is generally very good, (but with a tail of underachievement).
Where is this failure you are all discussing?
@ Gosman
Serious failure to run numerous ministries effectively
Serious failure on numerous privacy matters
Failure on longterm thinking on environmental matters; eroding RMA foolhardy behaviour effects of which will only show up years later.
Failure to reinstate democratic elections for that Canterbury council
Failure on paying teachers
Failure to address the lowest waged and unemployed issues
Failure to create jobs
Failure to admit to mistakes, and speak with any alignment to reality.
These merely off the top of my head
However now that I know that NZ unemployment is one of the lowest in the Western World; a comparison made in a WORLD WIDE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND RECESSION I am so happy that I think I’ll go and shoot myself.
“NZ education system is generally very good”
-“generally” is fudging language
-where there has been endless issues with the education system ad nauseum
& comparing our stats to countries
-who are further along the road of fucked-upness than we are
These weak statements just don’t cut it.
When will someone cite circumstances going on in this country that are a) good and b) not comparisons with other countries? I guess when there is a change of government and they start actually acting in the interests of New Zealanders and creating positive things that can be cited.
This Government is a joke and the only thing they seem to be good at is spin and capturing the media.
(I invite others to add to the list of failures this Government has managed to achieve)
We are specifically talking about failure in Education and Jobs. As stated in both these areas NZ is doing well compared with the rest of the Western world.
It is a completely different argument that the National Government is not improving outcomes in these areas to a particular level you would like to see. It is also a highly debateable one.
“We are specifically talking about failure in Education and Jobs”
You might be talking about failures in jobs and Education
I am not.
This Government is failing in so many areas, lying about it, not taking responsibility that I wouldn’t trust them in any sector and more fool you that you do.
Why would I waste my time going into detail over Education and Jobs? Don’t you watch the news?
The things we are seeing going wrong will only be the tip of the ice berg mark my words
This Government has shown clearly it has no respect for the people whose interests it is employed to serve and I no longer consider they deserve my respect, trust or the privilege of high office.
National standards and league tables are a H U G E failure.
They have taken education backwards. That’s a fail, fail fail.
NZ education is “generally very good” – I take it you are referring to our PISA scores – which have slipped recently (not to mention the vandalism of National’s “Standards” and publicly funded private schools which have failed everywhere else). NZ unemployment is low by international standards, but has risen and is projected to rise further.
If NZ is doing well, it is in spite of the National Party, not because of it.
Btw – it isn’t “underachievement, Gos, it’s relatively low family income, that creates that “tail” you cite – and it isn’t 20% either.
Families with a relatively low income have underachieving children, by achievement criteria.
The children grow up and live relatively shorter lives of underachievement and their children too.
NZ Unemployment is, as in many countries a manipulated figure. Included into the statistic of employment are people who work as little as 1 hrs per week – I kidd you not. If the measure would be income per capita the picture would dramatically change and would be far more coherent to the reality around us.
The education system USED to be good until the California Model “Tomorrow’s School” was introduced. English in the class room was never the same again. The reading and pronouncing of words was then diminished to “recognize the word”. The consequences are plain to see. Any employer will be able to tell you that there are applicants who are illiterate – really. It is difficult to belief that one of those boffins sold this program to schools, made a bundle (because he could read) and left this dessert of illiteracy behind. Maths is a bit better but if a person cannot multiply 18 x 3 without a calculator, we have a problem (Based on an actual experience). It is so sad that a sizable section of young people are handicapped and not able to enjoy culture to its full extend, be it reading or drama. Building, engineering not far behind on that dilemma.
Of cause one could always say that in a world of the blind the one eyed is king. With those statistics, this may well be the case.
Foreign Waka – “Tomorrow’s Schools” was an administrative change – it had nothing whatsoever to do with the curriculum.
TS involved devolving responsibility for governance of schools from Education Boards [which were disestablished] to newly created Boards of Trustees, elected by the community.
This statement “English in the class room was never the same again. The reading and pronouncing of words was then diminished to “recognize the word”.” is irrational.
Georgy, yes it was an administrative change but with it came a package that had a new way of teaching English implemented. I am pretty sure about this as a friend was teaching at the time and she was from the States. She pointed this out and by looking at the methodology we were quite surprised that this was acceptable. I really like to say something different but fact is that I have come across many youngsters who were not able to string two sentences together, let alone write an essay. This is sad and no amount of excuses would be acceptable to justify this. We are suppose to provide a better future. What is so much better if one cannot read?
Even the positive things that they have provided for education demonstrates flawed thinking: http://localbodies-bsprout.blogspot.co.nz/2012/10/broadband-in-schools-highlights.html
As far as I can see, the most dangerous thing this government is failing on is the rule of law. They seem to have no notion whatsoever of their responsibilities and limitations, as shown in an ever increasing number of cases. They’re getting very close to rule by decree and have more in common with an absolutist monarchy than with any democratic system.
From Bennet’s playing fast and loose with the rights of beneficiaries to the latest police false evidence fiasco, via DotCom and the Ureweras, the path is all downhill. Once any pretense of adherence to law is gone, they’ll go after what’s left of the unions, socially active churches, and anyone else who speaks out. We live in dangerous times and it’s going to take a lot more than a UN roof inspector to make them safe.
Well done MO, you’re getting it!
The variance is little more than the democracy illusion perpetuated, and hoovered up by the weak, who are the many.
The weaker, less healthy and more dumbed down the masses become, the worse this situation will get!
Yep, very dangerous times and they’re more dangerous because National happens to be in power as they think that government is a dictatorship. This comes through in everything that they do and say.
They, like all govermnents are the representatives of a dictatorship, lets be very clear about that!
Wasn’t it obvious, that ACT is a fascist party who routine believe government is the enemy.
Why anyone would then let them have the balance of power by voting for them….
Government is oppressive but the alternative is…. …you dictating your terms right?
What we need is better governance, less where required, simple when not.
Most simply, the GFC was caused by complex oppressive government intervention
into the markets introduced by governments that sold themselves as advocates of
simple smaller government, aka Thatchterism
+1 @MurrayOlsen
The problem as I see it is that those with weak “belief perserverance” , i.e, voted left then Key et al in 07 and 10 buggered off to Aussie rather than stay and trend back left. They probably make up quite a few percent of polls etc.
This national govt has created huge negative spin on the effectiveness of the education system. They have abused the process and created false ideas which have spread across the community. Their policies wont make any improvements whatsoever – instead they will leave a lot of hurt people and the educators reeling, trying to regain what we had.
Their legacy will be a trail of destruction.
+1.
right on Georgy.
they are in the process of giving the education system to a bunch of lowbrow dumbfucks and hiding behind the fact that most stuff can be made cheaper anywhere else than here.
it gives them a lot of wiggle room.
they WANT people to leave.
The New Zealand exchange rate is the lever on the fruit-machine being pumped as a high-frequency-trading clearing house; Jackpots for the wealthy slot-investors
The Govt is supposed to create the mood for the economy… when they run around slashing jobs, and budgets, and even $200k for important things like rape crisis support, which company in their right mind, would go ‘OH LETS hire 50% more staff’
Most are keeping staffing levels at the same numbers, or slashing staff numbers (while giving executives big raises/bonuses)
785 days till the end of New Zealand austerity (December 21st 2014), because the only parties prepared to put the money where their mouth is and fix the economic mess are in the opposition.
Campbell TV 3 tonight ?
We are being advisedly, deliberately lied to. Outrageous.
The handsomely remunerated neo-liberal import Longstone’s gotta go. And the flibbitygibit minister.
A banana republic future for us it seems.
TV 3 is the only channel that isn’t run by the government (TVNZ) or by Sky TV (Prime); so don’t expect quality TV media here.