Here are the results of the last four polls, released over the past four days. I’ve presented them in number of seats won and grouped the parties into Left and Right based on these facts: ACT is locked with National as the Progressives are with Labour, the Greens won’t go with National, UF won’t go with Labour, and no-one seriously believes the Maori Party would go with National. I’ve also assumed the Maori Party will win all seven Maori seats, which I think is likely now that the fear of them going with National is dissipating. As you can see, it’s bloody close (if you can’t make out the individual graphics, they’re wee racehorses)
TV3/TNS 23rd Oct
Roy Morgan 24th Oct
It’s worth noting that the Left is winning in half the polls without NZF returning to Parliament in any of them. If NZF were to pick up a couple of percent and break 5%, they would bring 6 or more seats for the Left and that would knock the Right out of contention. That said, the Left can win without them and, while NZF is polling well below 5%, tactical voting would be ill-advised.