IPCC AR5: Thank the oceans

Written By: - Date published: 9:53 am, September 28th, 2013 - 101 comments
Categories: climate change, global warming, science - Tags:

From the IPCC AR5 preliminary  summary for policy makers (PDF).

Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence). It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0−700 m) warmed from 1971 to 2010 (see Figure SPM.3), and it likely warmed between the 1870s and 1971. {3.2, Box 3.1}

Not that the Figures at at the end of the document. My italics indicate the probability statements used by the IPCC . In the quote above..

  • High confidence means that the scientists working on this area have a high degree of agreement and robust evidence.
  • Virtually certain means that the likelihood that the statement is correct is 99-100%
  • Likely is another likelihood statement means that there is a 66-100% probability that the statement is correct.

Bearing in mind that scientists between themselves are by far the most skeptical* about any evidence, this is a long awaited solid agreement on the effects of the oceans that was much less confident in the AR4 report of 2007.

Back in when I was doing a BSc in earth sciences in the late 1970s, earth scientists of various types were starting to look at the evidence for climate change and in particular the heat balances between the parts of the earth systems. One of the rather annoying things was that the available instrumented data was from all the wrong places to determine that.

We had decades of reasonably good air-temperature data. But air isn’t a particularly good mechanism for retaining heat. Have a cloudless night and all of the heat drains away to give some very cold mornings. Live in an area surrounded by warm oceans like much on NZ, and you’ll have air temperatures that are moderated by heat rising from and being adsorbed by the oceans. The reason is because water is far far more effective at absorbing and retaining heat than air – especially brine. But oceans are kilometres deep, and almost all of the temperature data available was from the top few metres of the oceans.

Furthermore most of the long-term air temperature data is  clustered in the land area of north-western Europe and north-eastern America. Similarly, there were decades of  sparse surface water temperature data from the Atlantic crossings but little from other areas of the world. This was an unfortunate place to gather data from because the more that the earth sciences examined the northern Atlantic area and it’s peripheral land areas, the more that it was realised that the whole area was an distorted climate.

The north Atlantic is narrow and is normally dominated by warm Gulf Stream pushing heat northwards. While this means that human civilisations can and have comfortably lived far further North than they can anywhere else in the world – at least while the Gulf Stream wasn’t dormant. It also means that most of the world’s detailed data that was required to analyse the effects of possible climate change was concentrated in the worst possible area to analyze global climatic shifts. It was also largely confined to the surface areas of the land and ocean.

Since the 70’s, there has been a concerted effort to get heat measurements from around the world and vertically in both the troposphere (the lower 17-20km of the atmosphere) and the upper 2 kilometres of the oceans. But it takes decades to get enough data to accurately see shifts in climate. The weather, annual, and cyclic climatic effects all mask the longer term overall climatic effects and diminish the confidence of the highly skeptical scientific community that they are seeing actual trends and effects.

IPCC AR5 Figure SPM3 cBut 40 years of collecting more solid and widely dispersed data has been steadily increasing the confidence that the actual data is showing and effect, and that the actual data is showing the expected effects from the models of the physics. It is quite noticeable in the reduction of the confidence interval of the amount of heat stored in the upper 700m of the oceans.

Similarly there has now been 20 years of data collection on the surface effect of the adsorption of CO2 into seawater and the effects this is having on surface acidity.

IPCC AR5 Figure SPM4 b

The science is quite clear. As the summary says

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased

The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. CO2 concentrations have increased by 40% since pre-industrial times, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondarily from net land use change emissions. The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification

Total radiative forcing is positive, and has led to an uptake of energy by the climate system. The largest contribution to total radiative forcing is caused by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 since 1750

Climate models have improved since the AR4. Models reproduce observed continental-scale surface temperature patterns and trends over many decades, including the more rapid warming since the mid-20th century and the cooling immediately following large volcanic eruptions (very high confidence).

Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes (Figure SPM.6 and Table SPM.1). This evidence for human influence has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.

At present the oceans are buffering up much of the extra heat and CO2 and minimizing the short term changes over recent decades. This has been starting to cause shifts in climatic patterns like the changes northen jetstreams over the last decade and the increasingly more energetic weather.

But sooner rather than later the effect of those adsorptions into the oceans will start diminishing as the oceans reach a new equilibrium with the atmosphere and the ice sheets finish melting. Then it really starts getting warm and the weather starts getting a lot more crazy.

IPCC AR5 Figure SPM1 a

IPCC AR5 Figure SPM6

* Having dealt with climate “skeptics” on this site over the last 6 years, I’d have to say that they are some of the most credulous idiots that I have come across. It appears to me that they never check anything because they prefer to “believe” any old rubbish that someone tells them helps their beliefs.

On the odd times that we get links from them to whatever actual source material they are referring to, it invariably contradicts their own myth. Somewhere in the chain of credulous idiots who have read each others opinions of what the scientific article says, they have invented (or been given) a myth that they never check.

About the only thing that is more disturbing are the same types of people who “believe” any old crap about climate change causing imminent danger and the extinction of humans and/or the biosphere. They never check their own myths against source material either.

The reality is that climate change is a slow and inexorable process that has considerable consequences over the coming decades to food production from more extreme weather with the inevitable blows to our human civilisation of disease, famine, and war. Over the next century we’re likely to see agricultural and harvesting patterns widely and severely disrupted by widespread climate shifts. And over the longer term sea level rises will continue to cause issues for several thousands of years.

Climate change is a fast geological process. It is also very slow by the time scales of humans.

Note – As I’m busy today, this post may be put on comment moderation so that I can deal with the credulous idiot’s comments personally and individually as part of an education process.

101 comments on “IPCC AR5: Thank the oceans ”

    • Chooky 1.1

      Thanks! this whole post is very interesting!

      ….and for those who like their science summarized the link above by Pete…..”five scariest things that will likely happen due to climate change” is also very well worth watching.

      On the issue of those who deny or question climate change without listening to any good reason…an article in ‘New Scientist’ by Mike Holderness, ‘Enemy at the Gates’ (8 October, 2005) is of interest.

      He reports that Christian fundamentalist individuals, groups, think-tanks, ‘research’ organisations and foundations appealing to a renewal of the faith of their fathers and forefathers are advocating a faith-based approach to science and an economy ruled by spirit and faith. This has led to a dismissal of “ideas such as global warming, pollution problems and ozone depletion. And that unsurprisingly, has political ramifications, including climate-change denial and the pursuit of ruthless free-market economics” (p.48)

      ….a very good reason not to put tax payer dollars into anti science , climate denying ,religious charter schools!

  1. andyS 2

    I think the average guy has lost interest in this a long time ago. Even TVOne brought up “the pause” on the 6 O’Clock news this week, and featured sceptical blogger Andrew Montford.

    [lprent: andyS is now under moderation in this post for displaying the traits of being a credulous idiot trolling my post.

    And now permanently banned. Over the course of this post he has parroted other sites, never shown any signs of understanding any science, and never shown any signs of listening to others. Despite numerous hints his behaviour has persisted. All his comments will now be deleted. ]

    • lprent 2.1

      So? Did you have a point in that statement somewhere?

      The IPCC reports are targeted at governments, institutions, and governments. That is why the IPCC is called the Intergovernmental panel on climate change

      The reality is that “the average guy” isn’t who these reports are targeted to. For a starter they tend to rely on journalists untrained in science to interpret these types of reports. Neither do a very good job at understanding them.

    • Colonial Viper 2.2

      The “average guy” also buys One Direction and Miley Cyrus DVDs, so I’m not sure what you are saying.

      • andyS 2.2.1

        The one news item (from the BBC) was suggesting that cause of “the pause” was unknown. It could be the oceans, it could be natural variability, or it could be aerosols, or the sun (that’s what the BBC said, not me)

        Now the IPCC Ar5 is not even giving a central estimate for climate sensitivity (previously, always 3 degrees)

        Rather than looking more certain, the opposite seems to be true.

        • Colonial Viper 2.2.1.1

          Torturers also “pause” while waterboarding a victim, in order that the victim doesn’t pass out.

          How old are you mate? If you’re under 50 years of age you are on track to live in a world fucked by climate change pretty bad. Doesn’t that concern you?

          • andyS 2.2.1.1.1

            Lots of things concern me. Climate change reports that don’t make sense being one of them

            • Colonial Viper 2.2.1.1.1.1

              It makes perfect sense to me. Perhaps you simply lack the insight and the qualifications to interpret them?

              That’s perhaps why you think that ‘ordinary joe’ has moved on…which I believe you are actually dangerously incorrect about as well.

            • Martin 2.2.1.1.1.2

              Andy, I would be concerned about the increasing rate of polar ice melt. This is a tipping point we are crossing and its impact is being felt on large land masses north of 30 -40 deg north of the equator. The slowing jet stream is meanduring and pulling colder weather down from the Arctic and hot air up from the tropics, thus extremes of weather are being felt with its oscillations.

              Another unmentioned factor is the drastic increas of Methane release from sub polar areas both on land and from shallow seas north of Siberia.

              Wildfires are increasing in the northern summer season and already across in Australia.
              These are three phenomena that the IPCC doesn’t go into and it just skims the acidification of seas. Although not as pronounced yet as the others. Acidification is a dagger at the heart of our foodchain.

              You shouldn’ be concerned
              you should be alarmed.

              regards

              Martin

              • Dumrse

                Just recently I read of the “increase in growth” of the polar ice caps so I have just googled it. There seems to be no doubt (given the number of articles) that 2013 has seen up to a 60% increase in size of the ice caps in some polar areas.
                http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2013/09/12/remember-all-those-breathy-predictions-about-an-ice-free-arctic-by-2015-nevermind/
                How is this at such odds with your post. (as an aside, I now see where the term alarmist comes from, you are encouraging it)

                • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                  Why can’t you people ever check to see if your source is treating you like a gullible gimp?

                  The link in the above sentence is a pretty picture. What does the pretty picture tell you?

                  Come on now, take your time.

                • lprent

                  You have named yourself well. The east Antarctica icecap has been increasing, because of increased water vapour in a cold area. Unfortunately it indicates warming as it’d normally never get in from the ocean.

                  In other words even a credulous idiot like yourself must regard a change in a climate pattern that has persisted for more than 10k years to be climate change.

                • miravox

                  “There seems to be no doubt (given the number of articles) that 2013 has seen up to a 60% increase in size of the ice caps in some polar areas”

                  Ah well, if the science doesn’t convince you that the volume of sea ice is reducing, the shipping industry doing stuff might…

                  A Danish-owned coal-laden cargo ship has sailed through the Northwest Passage for the first time and into the history books as the second bulk carrier to navigate the Arctic route.

                  The Nordic Orion left Vancouver, British Columbia, Sept. 17 carrying 15,000 tons of coal. Ed Coll, CEO of Bulk Partners, an operational partner of ship-owner Nordic Bulk Carriers, said Friday that the freighter has passed Greenland. He said it is expected to dock in Finland next week after traversing waters once impenetrable with thick ice.

                  Interest in the Northwest Passage is on the rise as climate change is melting Arctic sea ice, creating open waterways. The melting ice could make it a regular Atlantic-Pacific shipping lane.

                  “Climate change is advancing more quickly to the point where the Northwest Passage has become a more viable shipping route, roughly 30 years earlier than most scientists estimated it would,” said Michael Byers, an international law expert at the University of British Columbia.

                  It’s saved them $200,00 on the usual trip. A coal cargo… talk about taking self-interest to a whole new level.

                  Note that the only other bulk carrier to do it was 40 years ago. The SS Manhattan was fitted out as an ice-breaker, but the difficulties due to the amount of ice encountered meant the route was unfeasible for bulk cargo ships. This time there appears to be a fair bit of potential.

                • Martin

                  http://arctic-news.blogspot.co.nz/
                  James Taylor seems to be a spin doctor. Try some science.

        • lprent 2.2.1.2

          What “pause”?

          When it takes three decades to capture the the oceanic thermal data and to make sure that that there was a trend in it, then a slowdown of less than decade in air temperatures isn’t significiant.

          Your “3 degrees” is also meaningless. Perhaps you should link to it, quote the section, and I’ll tell you why you are being a fool acting like parrot.

          But since you’re merely trolling I’m adding you to auto-moderation. I’ll let through comment on other posts and anything that you write that relates to this post.

          If I have to do too much work discarding crap comments then I’ll add you to auto-spam because I really don’t have time to waste today.

          • andyS 2.2.1.2.1

            The three degrees central estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity has been the central pillar of all IPCC reports until the current one. Do I really have to link to it?

            As for “what pause”, I am referring to the flat-lining of all the major surface temperature series.

            How come the BBC mentions “the pause” if it doesn’t exist? The BBC isn’t the Daily Mail

            • lprent 2.2.1.2.1.1

              Do I really have to link to it?

              Yes – because I have no idea what in the hell you’re talking about. It wasn’t in the AR4 summary for the same sections as have been released in the preliminary summary for AR5.

              I presume (after looking around at the credulous idiot sites) that you are referring to a endpoint in from one of the climate models in the main report of AR4 and put into the final AR4 summary?

              You do realise that none of the models nor the final report have been released for AR5 yet? Therefore they are not in the preliminary AR5 summary.

              Which then makes your statement look like it has been written by a credulous idiot who has no idea what you’re talking about. And I guess you’re wondering why you’d have to be regarded as one of the more stupid of the nutters around the blogs.

              …flat-lining of all the major surface temperature series.

              Ah – didn’t you read my post? The whole point about the post was that the thermal takeup of oceans is far higher than that of air. There is now finally enough data to see how much heat has been sucked up in the oceans. Air temperatures matter to humans. They don’t matter nearly as much to the processes of climate change because air is a lousy heat sink.

              How come the BBC mentions “the pause” if it doesn’t exist?

              Gee and I never knew that people at the BBC were paid to write scientific papers on climate change. They are just another media outlet full of journalists reporting news stories. Very few of them have been trained in science. At best they merely touch lightly on a subject mostly based on spin from PR organisations. When it comes to this kind of scientific knowledge they are usually just as out of the depth as the Daily Mail.

              Perhaps you should start assessing the types of organisations and people you use as references – which leads me back to the section of my post about credulous idiots.

              • andyS

                The link that you require, with the key phrase is: “Analysis of models together with constraints from observations suggest that the equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely to be in the range 2°C to 4.5°C, with a best estimate value of about 3°C. It is very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C.” http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/tssts-4-5.html

                [lprent: Please do a read of the comment you just replied to. As well as pointing out that you are a credulous idiot, it appears you don’t read what others explain to you. Otherwise you’d have realised that I’d already answered you. Either that or you don’t understand it. My guess is that you just pasted the contents of this comment from somewhere else.

                But let me summarise it for you yet again… The AR5 has not released any model data yet. Consequently there is no model data in the preliminary AR5 summary. Therefore the figure you’re looking for would not be in this PRELIMINARY summary ]

                • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                  What’s the significance of the fact that they haven’t given a central estimate? No, no, no, not what a credulous idiot thinks it is: what’s the significance on Planet Earth?

                  • andyS

                    “My guess is that you just pasted the contents of this comment from somewhere else.” Actually, I googled for “IPCC central estimate 3 degrees” or similar, I found the Wikipedia page about it. This had a link to the IPCC page. I found the phrase above, I copied that from the IPCC and I pasted it into the comment box. I also provided the URL for you to check. I hope that is sufficient for you. You asked me for a link and I provided it, and I have provided a full audit trail of how I found the information. I fail to see how this makes me a “credulous idiot”. Perhaps you could explain

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      Only a credulous idiot would believe it significant that a preliminary summary doesn’t contain all the information to be released in the final document.

                      I hope that helps.

                    • lprent

                      I had already found the link, discovered your ignorant error, and answered you in the comment that you replied to. Idiot easy… Credulous? You didn’t figure the answer out yourself – you repeated something someone else said and didn’t check it….

                • andyS

                  [lprent: deleted – permanent ban for trolling. ]

                  • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                    What is the significance of this statementy blankie of yours? You realise that greater uncertainty increases insurance premiums, eh? You should be able to understand something that has a dollar value attached. You realise that Munich re are completely immune to your faith-based rhetoric, eh?

                    Oh, and I note that when the IPCC says something you think supports your faith they turn into a reliable source. All the rest of the time they’re communist conspirators.

                    We need better wingnuts.

                    • andyS

                      [lprent: deleted – permanent ban for trolling. ]

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      So, no significance (not relevance) at all then? The empty, vapid weasel words of a recidivist loser.

                    • andyS

                      [lprent: deleted – permanent ban for trolling. ]

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      SIGNIFICANCE,

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      SIGNIFICANCE, you comprehension-challenged parrot!

                      And fuck you, Asshat Scrase, with your feeble insults and accusations. Are you such an ego driven wanker that you can’t even lose gracefully? Should we start calling you George Gregan?

                    • andyS

                      If you continue with this abuse, I will find other ways to get back at you,

                      [lprent: Apart from your other traits that is completely unacceptable. Permanently banned. ]

                    • andyS

                      [lprent: deleted – permanent ban for trolling. ]

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      Yeah, your accusation of genocide fantasies are so polite. What an asshole.

                    • andyS

                      [lprent: deleted – permanent ban for trolling. ]

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      Baby steps, comprehension-boy. The question is: what’s the significance of the fact that they haven’t given a central estimate? It’s just there up the page if you need to check.

                      No, not the relevance, nothing about climate sensitivity either. Read it again and don’t be afraid to ask questions if you need help.

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      Do you think relying on a creationist for your information is wise?

                      I don’t think you have an answer, do you? Happily, I provided one above. The significance of the fact that there may be no central estimate is that it will increase our insurance premiums, because uncertainty is anathema to risk assessment.

                      There are of course other implications: witless gimps will make hay about it being one of them, but the insurance premiums answer is couched in concepts I’m sure you can grasp.

          • andyS 2.2.1.2.2

            “What pause”? The “pause” I am referring to is the 15 year pause/hiatus/slowing/whatever in surface atmospheric temperatures. You may well be correct that ocean warming continues unabated and is anthropogenic in origin. However, this is one of several theories that scientists are using to try to explain the pause or slowdown in global warming Last Tuesday, ar around 6.20pm, on TVOne news, the following David Shukman piece was aired. It is quite clear in this piece that the BBC – a central pillar of climate alarmism over the years – is accepting that the “pause” in global surface temps is real. It included a short interview with Andrew Montford, the “Bishop Hill” blogger, something that would have been unthinkable even a year ago I thought the BBC piece was surprisingly balanced, as BBC pieces go. There was the usual “record breaking heat” stuff, but they acknowledge that there is a lot that they don’t know about the climate system. Personally, I think the sceptical public would be much more accommodating if these uncertainties were acknowledged a little more often, and that they weren’t perpetually barraged with insults .

            • Colonial Viper 2.2.1.2.2.1

              Thankfully andyS you are tone deaf to the wider mood and the public is moving against you. Despite Koch, Exxon, Shell, Aramco billions etc.

            • One Anonymous Knucklehead 2.2.1.2.2.2

              Why fifteen years? Why not sixteen or seventeen?

              As for the “pause”, the instrumental temperature record is littered with such artifacts, and yet you cling to it like a security blankie.

              • andyS

                As for the “pause”, the instrumental temperature record is littered with such artifacts, and yet you cling to it like a security blankie. Can you show me another “pause” in the post 1950 temperature record that spans a period of 15+ years?

                • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                  2013 – 1998 = 15, not 15+, because if you go back to 1997 you find significant warming since then and that wouldn’t suit your narrative. Nor would looking at global decadal averages, which show no “pause” at all. I’m sure you find these cherry-picking games terribly clever and amusing, but I’m not twelve, so I don’t share your enthusiasm.

                  My pick is that the next el Nino year is going to leave you exactly where you are now: irrelevant and getting warmer.

            • lprent 2.2.1.2.2.3

              I am at a wedding. But the short answer is that you are wrong. Cherry picking a single type of value and making it *the* value in a multivariate analysis is simply stupid. Doing it in a single region just makes you a credulous idiot…

        • Rogue Trooper 2.2.1.3

          wasn’t likely to have been ‘the sun’ (solar cycle) influencing the pause significantly, if one reads the AR5 summary thoroughly.

        • Macro 2.2.1.4

          Andy I see your palpabe ignorance of anything connected with climate science has not improved. You really must stop visiting the Bishop and wonkey Watts, and as for that laughable “Climate Science” blog run by the nutter Threadgold… the less said about it the better.

          It appears that your misunderstanding is the result of a profound inability to understand the difference between what is a projection (a prefiguration based on a model), and what is a prediction. The AR4 3 degree projection of Climate sensitvity to which you refer, is of course the resulting temperature increase to a doubling of CO2 above preindustrial levels. As we have not, as yet, emitted that much CO2 for a doubling, although we are well on the way, and temperature lags increasing GHG concentrations; it is well within the science to accept that projection as well founded. We have already had about 1 degree of warming, and there is a peer reviewed study of which I am sure you are aware, that calculates that even with going cold turkey on fossil fuels there would be further warming to at least 1.3 degeees above pre- industrial levels. (And that is not taking any feedbacks such increased water vapour into account). I know you want to believe that Climate sensitivity is low, but the evidence that constantly pours in daily just does not support this.

          This post highlights the fact that over the past 15 – 16 years the warming that is occurring to the Planet is primarily going into the ocean (that s old knowledge) and surprisingly – (this is the new knowledge) following the introduction of the Argo floats and their eventual proven reliability – it is not just the surface that is warming but down to at least 2000m. The vastness of this heating can only be expressed in terms of 4+ Hiroshima bombs per second every minute every hour every day. Day after day. (Just to put that into perspective – If the world suddenly exploded its total arsenal of nuclear weapons – that would not equate to the total heating of the oceans in one day). Just what will be the eventual result is anyones guess. Since 1999 the ENSO has been in a predominanly El Nino phase, that is the Pacific (the largest expanse and volume of Ocean) has been accumulating heat, When that shifts to La Nina, the pacific will release a huge amount of stored energy in the form of rain and wind and storms. And surface temperatures will rise accordingly.

          • One Anonymous Knucklehead 2.2.1.4.1

            I think you have your La Nina and El Nino mixed up.

          • andyS 2.2.1.4.2

            You really must stop visiting the Bishop and wonkey Watt I don’t need to “visit” The Bishop when he is on BBC TV and radio every second day

          • andyS 2.2.1.4.3

            It appears that your misunderstanding is the result of a profound inability to understand the difference between what is a projection … Indeed, and it is always great to have someone more knowledgeable than me explaining these details So perhaps you could take a look at the BBC/TVOne video that I posted, and explain where I am “mistaken” when I am using the same language as them, and the same language as most climate scientists (including James Hansen), when we say that global mean land surface temperatures have plateaued for the last 15 years or so. If you think this BBC piece was misleading, then you should file a complaint to TVNZ. The piece aired at approx. 6.20pm on Tuesday this week, during the 6 O’Clock news The piece quite clearly stated that global mean surface temperatures have “stalled” (or whatever) for the last 15 years, and scientists are “puzzled”., and looking for explanations, that include – aerosols, the sun, and the oceans They interviewed Myles Allen of Oxford University, and Andrew Montford, author of The Hockey Stick Illusion and Hiding the Decline I imagine that a large number of people watched this piece, so rather than try to explain my “confusion” (which is merely stating this basic fact rather than drawing any conclusions from it) I suggest you write to TVNZ, and explain to them why they are misleading the public (or not)

            • Colonial Viper 2.2.1.4.3.1

              Took you a while to come up with this did it?

              Good god man, get a life.

            • Draco T Bastard 2.2.1.4.3.2

              Yep, land surface temperatures have stalled – doesn’t mean that warming hasn’t continued which is why the title of this post is Thank The Oceans.

              • miravox

                doesn’t mean that warming hasn’t continued which is why the title of this post is Thank The Oceans.

                However the oceans aren’t thanking us, because they’re acidifying more as they absorb more carbon dioxide. That, to me, is pretty scary.

            • Macro 2.2.1.4.3.3

              Yes I have read Hansen’s paper in whichin one sentence he refers to increase in surface temperatures plateauing, but the majority of the paper – which you convenienty overlook – talks about the continual warming of the planet!
              Indeed it is James Hansen who first described the vast heating that is taking place by referring to an atomic explosion – hence the 4 Hiroshima’s per second.
              You spinning is pathetic Andy – there is a time when one has to face up to the fact that continually telling half truths is a highly immoral activity.

              • andyS

                You spinning is pathetic Andy – there is a time when one has to face up to the fact that continually telling half truths is a highly immoral activity. I am not spinning anything. The IPCC primarily use surface temperatures as their metric for “global warming”. The BBC/TVOne video I posted a link to upthread made the same points. So by using the arguments of the IPCC I am being “immoral”. I find the sanctimonious bleating of the warmist creed a little hard to stomach sometimes.

                • lprent

                  No they don’t. They use Joules as a measure of energy as a metric of everything.

                  They express the expected values of a heat balance as an average heat for particular areas as latitudes and geography move the heat balances for different areas. They can also use the heat balance to indicate the increase in energy retention.

                  For the benefit of government officials who don’t think in joules, they express that as a expected temp increase. But it is the result of a energy balance, and is only there for indicative steady state conditions. Any number of conditions could affect the actual result in a single country. Most likely that there has been increased melt in the Arctic affecting the regions adjacent.

                  Only a complete idiot like yourself would think that not meeting a estimated average *world* energy release in a single area invalidated the model.

                  Your statement was complete claptrap by a barely educated simian. It was also wrong. You simply can’t run energy models on temps.

          • Poission 2.2.1.4.4

            following the introduction of the Argo floats and their eventual proven reliability – it is not just the surface that is warming but down to at least 2000m. The vastness of this heating can only be expressed in terms of 4+ Hiroshima bombs per second every minute every hour every day. Day after day.

            In the introduction post is the evolution in ocean heat content over the last 40 years,the change is remarkably small.( it would not be an argument that is easily defended)

            • Macro 2.2.1.4.4.1

              “In the introduction post is the evolution in ocean heat content over the last 40 years,the change is remarkably small.( it would not be an argument that is easily defended)”

              Not quite sure what you mean?

              Because water has such a large Specific Heat Capacity compared to air and there is vast quantity of it, a small increase in temperature represents a huge increase in heat.

              • Poission

                The ocean mass is not constant,it is increasing with SL rise,so OHC also increases over time.The increase in T is remarkably small over the instrumental period.

                • andyS

                  I think the temperature gain since 1960 has been calculated at 0.06 degrees C

                    • andyS

                      Sorry I can only find climate scientist Judith Curry’s word on this. Apologies I will try to find some results from Genuine People writing for Approved Sources Presumably linking to Professor Curry’s work will induce an immediate outbreak of hysterical braying from the Creed

                    • lprent []

                      Well she is a single scientist with a lousy record in my opinion. But how about linking to whatever you are braying about and let others tell you either how you don’t understand it, or they will dig out the critics of her paper, or in the unlikely event that they agree with her.

                      In science, not linking to references is just the cowards way to avoid skeptics…

                  • RedLogix

                    Specific Heat of Air = 1.002 J/g

                    Specific Heat of Water = 4.2 J/g

                    Mass of Atmosphere = 5 * 10^18 kg

                    Mass of Oceans = 1.3 * 10^21 kg

                    This means the ratio of the Ocean’s to Atmosphere’s Total Heat Capacity is:

                    (4.2 * 1.3 * 10^21)/(1.0 * 5 * 10^18) = 1092

                    Thus a 0.06 degC temp rise in the ocean is roughly equivalent to a 1092 * 0.06 = 65 degC rise in atmosphere temperature. First order approximation of course.

                    • andyS

                      The link, as requested is here http://motls.blogspot.co.nz/2013/09/ocean-heat-content-relentless-but.html in which Lubos Motl calculates the increase in temperature in the ocean since 1960 as 0.065K +- 20% He provides the maths,so you can check it for yourself.

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      From Motl:

                      “2.6×10²³J.”

                      I can understand why you would prefer it expressed in K. Helps with your credulous narrative etc.

                    • andyS

                      I can understand why you would prefer it expressed in K. Helps with your credulous narrative etc. Tell me, when you go outside and decide to put on a coat or not, do who base your decision on temperature or on the energy content of the atmosphere?

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      Yes, because the decision to wear a coat is completely analogous to the significance of the extra energy in the oceans, eh. They’re exactly the same, in fact.

                • Macro

                  At the present time the majority of SLR is actually caused by the expansion of water as it warms. Some of the rise in sea level is the result of Glacier and Ice sheet melt, but that is insignificant to the total mass of the oceans. For all practical purposes, and we are talking here of the first 3 sig figs, whilst the Volume of the oceans has increased, it Mass has not.
                  Your argument will increase in validity as the major land ice masses, ie Greenland and Antarctica disappear.

          • andyS 2.2.1.4.5

            [lprent: deleted – permanent ban for trolling. ]

            • One Anonymous Knucklehead 2.2.1.4.5.1

              Citation needed.

              “All the models and evidence confirm a minimum warming close to 2°C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 with a most likely value of 3°C and the potential to warm 4.5°C or even more.”

              Skeptical Science. Please tell me you aren’t relying on the creationism guy.

              • andyS

                [lprent: deleted – permanent ban for trolling. ]

                • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                  You are relying on the creationist, aren’t you?

                  Let’s face it, if you had an argument someone credible would have used it before you.

  2. johnm 3

    “Climate change? Try catastrophic climate breakdown
    The message from the IPCC report is familiar and shattering: it’s as bad as we thought it was”

    “What the report describes, in its dry, meticulous language, is the collapse of the benign climate in which humans evolved and have prospered, and the loss of the conditions upon which many other lifeforms depend. Climate change and global warming are inadequate terms for what it reveals. The story it tells is of climate breakdown.”

    “They make great play of the IPCC’s acknowledgement that there has been a “reduction in surface warming trend over the period 1998–2012″, but somehow ignore the fact that the past decade is still the warmest in the instrumental record.
    They manage to overlook the panel’s conclusion that this slowing of the trend is likely to have been caused by volcanic eruptions, fluctuations in solar radiation and natural variability in the planetary cycle.
    Were it not for man-made global warming, these factors could have made the world significantly cooler over this period. That there has been a slight increase in temperature shows the power of the human contribution.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/georgemonbiot/2013/sep/27/ipcc-climate-change-report-global-warming

    Here in Wellington this Winter and last year’s have been incredibly mild in the air and atmosphere, so there you have it CC is now directly observable here right now. Plus look at the mega drought we had last Summer. And Australia breaking into new temp records last Summer plus this Spring they’re getting freakishly warm temps already.

  3. red blooded 4

    Andy, even if (for your own bizarre reasons) you choose to ‘believe’ rather than be informed by the evidence, understand its significance and take advice from the 99.9% of the people with the expertise and qualifications to interpret and comment on this data, consider this: any move to combat climate change is also a move to clean up our air and waterways. Over consumption and pollution have more than one level of effect on our lives, the lives of others and of other species. Maybe you are a commited climate change denier. You are entitled to your (somewhat odd) beliefs. There are other reasons to try to limit oil consumption and stop polluting our world beyond its capacity to cope. Try to see the bigger picture.

    • andyS 4.1

      Andy, even if (for your own bizarre reasons) you choose to ‘believe’ rather than be informed by the evidence.. I am not “believing’ anything. I am looking at the data and the conclusions that are published by the IPCC And they don’t support the alarmist position.

      • One Anonymous Knucklehead 4.1.1

        The “alarmist position” being what exactly? Oh, that’s right, it’s the sort of ill-defined bullshit term that a credulous idiot mistakes for a benchmark.

        From the leaked unpublished draft of AR5’s summary for policy makers.

        AR4 concluded that warming of the climate system is unequivocal. New observations, longer data sets, and more paleoclimate information give further support for this conclusion. Confidence is stronger that many changes, that are observed consistently across components of the climate system, are significant, unusual or unprecedented on time scales of decades to many hundreds of thousands of years.

  4. Rogue Trooper 5

    let me just tidy up me scrawled notes, to fill in de time.

    qualitative shorthand- “level of confidence”- low through to high.
    quantitative shorthand “probability” – likelihood; 66-100% probability = “likely”. (virtually certain= 100% probability).
    -combined land and ocean surface temp rises – 1880-2012; 0.85C (0.65 -1.06C); virtually certain troposphere has warmed since mid 20thC
    -“very likely” number of cold days and nights have decreased, number of warm days and nights have increased.
    -“likely” -frequency of heat waves have increased in large parts of Europe, Asia and Australia.

    Ocean
    -warming greatest nearest the surface (upper 700m by 0.11C)
    -2000-3000m; not significant trends “likely”
    -700-2000m; “likely” warmed from 1957-2009
    -3000m and deeper; “warmed”.
    -60% of nett energy increases in climate system stored in the upper ocean (0-700m); 30% below 700m
    -from 2003-2010, there was a slower increase in heat content, 0-700m while the heat uptake at 700-2000m continued unabated.
    -high salinity (evaporation) regions up
    -low salinity (precipitation regions) fresher.

    Cryosphere
    -Over the last two decades The Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets have been losing mass.
    -glacial shrinkages
    -“high confidence” that Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have decreased.
    -2002-2011 ice-loss- 147Gt /year = 0.28-0.42mm/ year mean sea-level rise.
    -“high confidence” that permafrost temps have increased; 2C in the Russian North, 3C in Northern Alaska.
    -“high confidence” that the mean sea-level rise rate since the 19thC has been greater than the previous two millennia.
    -1901-2010, the global mean sea-level rose 0.2m due to glacial mass loss and ocean thermal expansion.

    Carbon, methane, NO and other gases
    -Atmospheric CO2 has increased by 40% since the pre-industrial era
    – “high confidence” ocean has absorbed 30%, leading to acidificatiion; pH decreased by 0.1 leading to mean rate increases in ocean hydrogen ion concentrations unprecedented in the last 22000 years

    Cement production (friggin concrete jungles).

    Drivers
    RF (Radiative Forcing) quantifies the changes in energy flux caused by changes in the drivers of CC
    -RF for 2011 43% higher than that reported in AR4 for 2005, due to continued growth in GHG emissions.
    -Positive RF of ozone-depleting halocarbons has outweighed the negative RF of ozone-depletion; reduced RF from CFC’s but increases from many of their substitutes.

    Future Global and Regional Climate Change (for much is determined).;)
    -Increase in mean surface / atmosphere temp “likely” to exceed 1.5-2C by the end of 21stC
    -2016-2035, relative to 1986-2005- a 0.3-0.7C increase.
    -near-term increases larger in the tropics and sub-tropics.
    Virtually Certain , more frequent hot and fewer cold temp extremes over most land areas.

    Water Cycle
    -contrast between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase, with regional exceptions.
    -the length and area covered by the Monsoons will increase.
    -Global mean rise in sea level 2081-2100, relative to 1986-2005 ranges (by model) from 0.26m through to 0.98m up to 3m in the centuries follow. (ooh, Noah).
    -Increased uptake of atmospheric carbon by the oceans increasing acidification.

    Positive Feedback Cycle
    -Aspects of CC will persist for many centuries even IF CO2 emissions are ceased.

    Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity
    -“high confidence” the range is 1.5-4.5C

    20:17 Food grown by fraud tastes sweet to a man, yet he ends up with a mouth full of gravel.

  5. karol 6

    Very good explanation, Lynn.

    So, what now?

    Will John, Bill, Gerry, Stephen, and nick now start changing government policies to be much more cautious about dishing out drilling, mining, fracking permits? Will they start investing more in public transport, tighten up the RMA, and generally start moving towards a sustainable economy?

    And the opposition parties?

    • miravox 6.1

      “Will John, Bill, Gerry, Stephen, and nick now start changing government policies”…

      If they’re anything like their Tory mates in the UK the answer is no. The government will be going on with business as usual. and possibly dismantle measures that reduce climate change.

      George Osborne has said he does not want Britain to be a world-leader in fighting climate change because the UK should not price itself out of international energy markets by placing too heavy an environmental burden on suppliers.

      His comments come after a landmark report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned if greenhouse gas emissions remained at current rates, within 20-30 years the world would face nearly inevitable warming of more than 2C, resulting in rising sea levels, heatwaves, droughts and more extreme weather…

      … The energy minister, Michael Fallon, is understood to be looking at ways to reduce the impact of environmental measures have on household energy bills, the Times reported. The Energy Companies Obligation, which forces suppliers to pay lagging bills for benefit claimants and pensioners, is thought to be a potential target.

      A moratorium on inland windfarms is also believed to be under consideration, in a move that would appeal to many grassroots Tory supporters.

      • Rogue Trooper 6.1.1

        The Honourable (sic) Simon Brudges;
        “We’ve been very involved, and “We’re doing quite a number of things”. (commenting on climate change today, as if that was not patently obvious 😉 )
        btw, NZ currently releases 60% more CO2 from electricity generation than in 1990.
        Smoke, Choke, Croak. rearbit, rear bit.

    • srylands 6.2

      Don’t say stupid things. We have an ETS. We are doing our bit. You want to impoverish New Zealand for zero environmental benefit while China and India carry on. Do you follow Australian politics? Whichever government followed your prescription would be a one term government. At least that is something.

      • Draco T Bastard 6.2.1

        We have an ETS. We are doing our bit.

        You should, perhaps, take your own advice:

        Don’t say stupid things.

        The ETS has been massively degraded from what it was to the point that it now encourages even more waste. Not only that but all indications are that it wasn’t going to work – all it was going to do was to make the banksters richer.

      • Murray Olsen 6.2.2

        It’s NAct who want to impoverish 95% of New Zealand while destroying the environment, so impoverishment for zero gain is actually an improvement over what you are a cheerleader for. As for China and India – China is not “carrying on.” They are actually starting to change, thank god. I don’t know about India, but even if they haven’t changed, that is no reason for us not to. Meanwhile, the biggest global energy users are the seppos, so mentioning China and India is a bit of a stretch. Why do they always get the blame?

    • Not Another Sheep 6.3

      Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has addressed in part this IPCC AR5 release. (The IPCC being UN backed). He intends to assemble a Climate Summit in September 2014.

      Not sure how this issue on CC will play out in regards to NZ political parties responses such as their promises or policy before the NZ elections. It should be interesting as the UN pushes for global Governments to establish a legal agreement on climate change in 2015. It should trigger all Parties, not just the Greens, for a pre-election ‘Promise’, at the least, to the people.

      Your question Karol,” So what now?”-: Ken Caldeira, a climate scientist at the Carnegie Institution and Stanford University gives his view on “Why More Climate Science Hasn’t Led to More Climate Policy – Yet”; saying “ the basics were clear long ago and that the response to global warming is more about ethics and economics than data [science]”.
      http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab/

      with one video being “Caldeira on Climate Science and Choices” Pt.2.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMojTFhLSy4&feature=player_embedded

      “…But it’s much easier to act ethically if acting ethically is cheap and easy. But if acting ethically requires us to make great sacrifices we tend to cut corners….”

      • karol 6.3.1

        Thanks. So basically, it’s about incorporating climate change measures within a strong ethical argument, and aligned to a compelling economic programme.

        Basically making a clear argument for sustainable economics in everyday language, showing how it benefits us all.

        • MrSmith 6.3.1.1

          “Basically making a clear argument for sustainable economics in everyday language, showing how it benefits us all.”

          Exactly Karol, because we are basically a selfish animal and generally only cooperate because we see some benefit in doing so.

          The problem is how do we get people to stand back and take a look at why we behave the way we do, then admit we are selfish and carrying on this way will eventually destroy our home.

  6. Macro 7

    A couple of valuable graphs pertinent to the discussion above – based on the National Oceanic Data Centre information –

    The first Global Ocean Heat Content: 0- 700 m:

    http://www.climate4you.com/SeaTemperatures.htm#Global oceanic heat content 0-700 m depth

    The second a combination of Tropical sea sea surface temperatures and Global surface air temperatures:

    http://www.climate4you.com/SeaTemperatures.htm#Tropical sea surface temperature and global surface air temperature

    The first graph shows that there has been no “pause” in global warming, Ocean Heat content has been steadily rising and continues to do so. NOTE: This but but one part of the total ocean heating, this does not include warming of the oceans below 700 m.

    The second graph is interesting as it suggests that air temperature follows sea surface temperature – as one might expect, our climate is controlled by the sea around us. to quote the summary below the graph:
    “Typically, 1-5 yr variations in the sea surface temperature have a larger amplitude than the corresponding variations in global surface air temperature. In addition, quite often a change in sea surface temperature appears to be initiated 1-3 months before the corresponding change in surface air temperature. In such cases, the temperature in the lower atmosphere appears to be controlled by change in sea surface temperatures, and not the other way around. Oceanographic processes such as, e.g., upwelling of warm or cold water masses might one obvious explanation. Another explanation might be variations in the amount of direct short wave solar radiation reaching the ocean surface. Whatever the control, the above diagram suggests that the tropical oceans are important for understanding global surface air temperature changes.”

    • andyS 7.1

      As I said upthread, if you claim that there is no “pause” and the TVNZ programme aired on Tuesday was misleading, then you should write a complaint, and explain why the 0.065 degrees of warming the oceans have experienced since 1960 is the biggest crisis facing humanity

      • Macro 7.1.1

        As I don’t in principle watch the crap on TVNZ I can scarely make a complaint can I… However you could help by visiting and signing this online petition here:
        http://www.avaaz.org/en/murdoch_tell_climate_truth/

      • One Anonymous Knucklehead 7.1.2

        You’re really clever, changing the units of measurement so the ocean energy rise sounds tiny. Did you know the Sun is only eight seconds from Earth? Hardly any distance at all, eh? Any twelve year old wanker would be proud of himself.

        • andyS 7.1.2.1

          [lprent: deleted – permanent ban for trolling. You simply don’t listen or argue and have now descended to simple abuse of others. Besides you just parrot other people without bothering to understand – google searches of your comments bounce to an interesting number of other sites. It appears you don’t have any opinions of your own. ]

          • One Anonymous Knucklehead 7.1.2.1.1

            Surface temperature. Ocean energy storage. Apples, meet oranges.

            Tell me, is your failure to understand this genetic or political?

  7. infused 8

    This won’t help your cause

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    Hi,One of the things I like the most about Webworm is to be able to break down the media and journalism a little, and go behind the scenes.This is one of those times.Yesterday an email arrived in my inbox from journalist Jonathan Milne, who is managing editor at Newsroom.I don’t ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    5 days ago
  • Me, elsewhere: Just say you’ll do the thing
    Wrote something over at 1/200 on a familiar theme of mine: The way we frame the economy as a separate, sacred force which must be sacrificed to, the way we talk about criminals as invaders who must be repelled, the constant othering of people on the benefit, people not in ...
    Boots TheoryBy Stephanie Rodgers
    6 days ago
  • A Voyage Among the Vandals: Accepted
    A nice bit of news today: my 4600-word historical fantasy-horror piece, A Voyage Among the Vandals, has been accepted by Phobica Books (https://www.phobicabooks.co.uk/books) for their upcoming Pirate Horror anthology, Shivering Timbers. This one is set in the Mediterranean, during the mid-fifth century AD. Notable for having one of history’s designated ...
    6 days ago
  • Ministerial conflicts of interest
    Since the National government came to power, it has been surrounded by allegations of conflicts of interest. Firstly, there's the fast-track law, which concentrates power in the hands of three Ministers, some of whom have received donations from companies whose projects they will be deciding on. Secondly, there's the close ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • The 2024 Budget Forecasts Are Gloomy Prognosis About The Next Three Years.
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    PunditBy Brian Easton
    6 days ago
  • A government that can't see twenty feet ahead
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    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • A post I hope is incorrect
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Māori Cannot Re-Write New Zealand’s Constitution By Stealth.
    The Kotahitanga Parliament 1897: A Māori Parliament – at least in the guise of a large and representative body dedicated to describing the shape of New Zealand’s future from a Māori perspective – would be a very good idea.THE DEMAND for a “Māori Parliament” needs to be carefully unpicked. Some Pakeha, ...
    6 days ago
  • Cowpats and Colonials.
    Dumbtown, is how my friend Gerard refers to people like ZB listeners - he’s not wrong.Normally on a Friday I start by looking at Mike Hosking’s moronic reckons of the week which he vomits down the throats of his audience like helpless baby birds in a nest, grateful for the ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on cutting the sick leave of vulnerable workers
    Should sick leave be part and parcel of the working conditions from Day One on the job, just like every other health and safety provision? Or should access to sick leave be something that only gradually accumulates, depending on how long a worker has been on the payroll? If enacted ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    6 days ago
  • Nobody Move: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.
    So long as we live in a democracy, economic policy can never be anything other than social-democratic.“HEH!”, snorted Laurie, as he waved his debit card over the EFTPOS machine. “Same price as last week. I guess budgets aren’t what they used to be.”“I wouldn’t know,” replied the young barman, wearily, ...
    6 days ago
  • In Search Of Unity.
    Kotahitanga: New Zealand’s future belongs to those who do not fear a nation carved out of unity and solidarity, and are willing to trust the carvers. Some New Zealanders will be required to step up, and others, perhaps for the first time in their lives, will be expected to step ...
    6 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 7-June-2024
    Welcome to another Friday roundup! Here are some recent links and stories that caught our eye, perfectly timed for your watercooler discussions and weekend reading. As always feel free to share more in the comments. Our header image this week is by Patrick Reynolds, and shows Te Komititanga from above. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    6 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to June 7
    As Workplace Relations and Safety Minister, ACT’s Brooke van Velden is fronting proposed changes to sick pay regulations and The Holiday Act. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers features talking with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent talking about the ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • Did we boil the oceans by cutting pollution?
    Lowering aerosol emissions from shipping has altered clouds, with potentially drastic effects. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: Here’s the top six news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above between Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer:New evidence is increasingly pointing at efforts ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #23 2024
    Open access notables Abrupt reduction in shipping emission as an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock produces substantial radiative warming, Yuan et al., Communications Earth & Environment: Human activities affect the Earth’s climate through modifying the composition of the atmosphere, which then creates radiative forcing that drives climate change. The warming effect ...
    7 days ago
  • Fragments
    The best observation I’ve read this week about the deep, profound harm Trump is doingTrump has hurled threats and smears at witnesses, jurors and the judge (including his family)... [he] has tried to intimidate witnesses and delegitimize the New York courts as corrupt. In continuing to incite his mob (that ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    7 days ago
  • March for Nature
    Do do do do do do do doDo do do do do doDi di di di di di di di di di diNature enter me…In 2018 the Labour lead government banned new oil and gas exploration in Aotearoa. A change welcomed by those who care deeply for our environment and ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Bernard’s Dawn Chorus and pick ‘n’ mix for Thursday, June 6
    The Transport Minister is trying to push through urgent legislation that would allow him to change emissions standards for car imports without approval from Parliament, after only consulting car importers. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Just as two major reports showed fossil fuel burning was warming the planet to dangerous levels and ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • A Better Broadway: Act 2
    This is a guest post by reader Grant A, the second of a pair about how to fix Broadway. If you missed the beginning of the show, here’s the link to Act 1 from yesterday. Yesterday, I discussed changing traffic circulation around Broadway in Newmarket. This included implementing a car-free ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    1 week ago
  • National breaks another health promise
    National has broken another manifesto health promise, apparently to save only $550,000. It will now train an additional 25 med students next year rather than the 50 it promised. This comes on top of the delays caused by National’s coalition partners in pushing ahead with the Waikato Medical School and ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    1 week ago
  • Climate Adam: Coping as the world’s best known climate scientist
    This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). Katharine Hayhoe is quite possibly the world's most famous climate scientist. She's produced wide ranging research, and communicated climate change with ...
    1 week ago
  • SIS “evidence” isn’t, again
    Back in 2016, then-Internal Affairs Minister Peter Dunne cancelled a New Zealand woman's passport, claiming she was a terrorist. The basis for his decision was a secret briefing by the SIS, which claimed that if she was allowed to travel, the woman would "engage with individuals who encourage acts of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • As Low As You Go
    Taking you as low as you goAs low as you goA sense of Déjà vu this morning. How many times have I begun a newsletter, “just when you thought they couldn’t go any lower…” Only for the groundhog to reappear, more pissed off than the day before.Another day with headlines ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Bernard's Dawn Chorus and pick 'n' mix for Wednesday June 5
    TL;DR: The public health costs of human-caused air pollution in Aotearoa-NZ is estimated at $38.8 billion a year because it kills 3,300 people each year, which is almost ten times more than the death toll on roads from accidents. Yet the Ministry for the Environment has just one staff member ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • A Better Broadway: Act 1
    This is the first of a two-part guest post by Grant A, a long time reader and commenter with a keen interest in all things urban, especially cycling and public transport. He’s been thinking about how to fix Broadway. Stay tuned for Act 2! Readers might remember the pre-Christmas traffic snarl-ups in ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    1 week ago
  • Road trance
    Sometimes technology is your friend and sometimes it can’t be bothered with you. Once you’re away from home and your dependable wifi, well, there’s no telling what will happen. I’ve been going in and out of high-speed and low-speed no-speed Internet pockets all over England and France and look, I’m ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • You Can't Undo Fake News
    Hi,I’ve been thinking a lot about Corey Harris, the 44-year old man who went viral after Zooming into his court appearance while driving. The headlines generated were basically all the same: “Man With Suspended Driver's License Dials Into Court Hearing While Driving”. The headlines said it all, and most people ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 week ago
  • At a glance – CO2 is the main driver of climate change
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    1 week ago
  • Acting Prime Minister David Seymour.
    When it came to David Seymour, Jacinda got one thing right, and another wrong. What is the sacrilege, I hear you ask? In what world in relation to David Seymour was our Jacinda ever wrong?Subscribe nowAs you no doubt remember, and personally I think there should be some sort of ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • More democratic abuse from National
    "Abuse of democracy" seems to be the emerging theme of this government, with bills rammed through under urgency or given pathetically short select committee submission times seemingly designed to limit and undermine public engagement. And today we have another case, with the public given just nine days to submit on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the curse of being politically moderate about everything
    Nigel Farage’s initial reason for not standing in the British election – because he wanted to be a Trump adviser – never looked very convincing. His perfectly timed “change of mind” though, has won him extensive media coverage, and he’s now plunging into the election campaign as the rival candidate ...
    1 week ago
  • Bernard’s Dawn Chorus and pick ‘n’ mix for Tuesday, June 4
    Placards at a 2018 rally for better funding for new cancer drugs. National’s pre-election promise to do so may have won it votes, but the attempt to quietly drop the plan has now ignited a firestorm of protest. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: The Government is now being engulfed in a firestorm ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Budget 2024 Highlights
    Last week the government delivered their first budget and while there’s been plenty of other discussion about the main aspects of it, I was particularly interested to look at what it meant for transport. Before getting into too much detail, the chart below shows at a high level where transport ...
    1 week ago
  • Jeff Masters and Bob Henson give us the low-down on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Samantha Harrington (Background photo credit: NASA/NOAA GOES Project / CC BY 2.0 DEED) To kick off hurricane season, Yale Climate Connections editors Sara Peach and Sam Harrington sat down with meteorologists and Eye on the Storm writers Jeff Masters and Bob ...
    1 week ago
  • Bernard's pick 'n' mix for Monday, June 3
    TL;DR: The Tiwai Point aluminium smelter, which consumes over 15% of the motu’s renewable electricity, has struck a deal to stay open for another 20 years. This will delay Aotearoa-NZ’s transition to carbon zero and make it more expensive and unfair for the 100,000 households who currently can’t afford their ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • maBaguette
    Today we rolled through troglodyte caves and ate a fresh roast chook by the river, the mighty Loire River, the still quite angry-looking Loire River. The Loire is not itself because it has been raining here for the last seven months without a break, the locals have been telling us, ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • Empty Promises.
    Fighting out of the blue corner, wearing a pale pink jacket, a half hearted smile, and a lot of flack from the left and the right, it’s your Finance Minister - Nicola Willis.Her challenger will probe the Minister for answers. Armed with boyish charm and tricky questions, the last remaining ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #22
    A listing of 33 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, May 26, 2024 thru Sat, June 1, 2024. Story of the week Sometimes one story is not enough. Our ongoing 2023-2024 experiences with lethal heatwaves, early wildfires and a threatening Atlantic hurricane season ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Treaty Principles Bill: Smokescreen for sweeping change?
    Much has been said about how the coalition government’s Treaty Principles Bill distorts te Tiriti o Waitangi. However, it could also serve as a Trojan horse, installing an extreme libertarian agenda. We don’t know the intent driving the proposed Bill; however, many serious effects may ensue. Far from simply clarifying the ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 weeks ago

  • Government to reverse blanket speed limit reductions
    The Coalition Government will reverse Labour’s blanket speed limit reductions by 1 July 2025 through a new Land Transport Rule released for public consultation today, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  The draft speed limit rule will deliver on the National-ACT coalition commitment to reverse the previous government’s blanket speed limit ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago
  • Chair appointments for NZSO, CNZ and NZ On Air
    Minister Paul Goldsmith is making major leadership changes within both his Arts and Media portfolios. “I am delighted to announce Carmel Walsh will be officially stepping into the role of Chair of the New Zealand Symphony Orchestra, having been acting Chair since April,” Arts Minister Paul Goldsmith says.  “Carmel is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 hours ago
  • Government focus on long-term food, fibre growth
    Food and fibre export revenue is tipped to reach $54.6 billion this year and hit a record $66.6b in 2028 as the Government focuses on getting better access to markets and cutting red tape, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay and Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones say. “This achievement is testament ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 hours ago
  • Govt consulting on cutting red tape for exporters
    A new export exemption proposal for food businesses demonstrates the coalition Government’s commitment to reducing regulatory barriers for industry and increasing the value of New Zealand exports, which gets safe New Zealand food to more markets, says Food Safety Minister Andrew Hoggard.  “The coalition Government has listened to the concerns ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • New Zealand and Philippines elevating relationship
    New Zealand and Philippines are continuing to elevate our relationship, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.   “The leaders of New Zealand and Philippines agreed in April 2024 to lift our relationship to a Comprehensive Partnership by 2026,” Mr Peters says. “Our visit to Manila this week has been an excellent ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Paid Parental Leave increase to help families
    Workplace Relations and Safety Minister, Brooke van Velden says paid parental leave increase from 1 July will put more money in the pockets of Kiwi parents and give them extra support as they take precious time off to bond with their newborns. The increase takes effect from 1 July 2024 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Defence increases UN Command commitment
    The number of New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) personnel deployed to the Republic of Korea is increasing, Defence Minister Judith Collins and Foreign Minister Winston Peters announced today.  NZDF will deploy up to 41 additional personnel to the Republic of Korea, increasing the size of its contribution to the United ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New Zealand to attend 'Summit on Peace in Ukraine' in Switzerland
    New Zealand will be represented at the Summit on Peace in Ukraine by Minister Mark Mitchell in Switzerland later this week.    “New Zealand strongly supports Ukraine’s efforts to build a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace,” Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.   “Minister Mitchell is a senior Cabinet Minister and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Big step forward for M.bovis programme
    Farmers’ hard work is paying off in the fight against Mycoplasma bovis (M. bovis) with the move to a national pest management plan marking strong progress in the eradication effort, says Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard.  “The plan, approved by the Coalition Government, was proposed by the programme partners DairyNZ, Beef ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Build To Rent opening welcomed by Housing Minister
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Housing Minister Chris Bishop formally opened a new Build to Rent development in Mt Wellington this morning. “The Prime Minister and I were honoured to cut the ribbon of Resido, New Zealand’s largest Build to Rent development to date.  “Build to Rent housing, like the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Agriculture to come out of the ETS
    The Government will deliver on its election commitment to take agriculture out of the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) and will establish a new Pastoral Sector Group to constructively tackle biogenic methane, Coalition Government Agriculture and Climate Change Ministers say. Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says New Zealand farmers ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Luxon Tokyo-bound for political and business visit
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will travel to Japan from 16-20 June, his first visit as Prime Minister.   “Japan is incredibly important to New Zealand's prosperity. It is the world’s fourth largest economy, and our fourth largest export destination.  “As you know, growing the economy is my number one priority. A strong economy means ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Bayly travels to Singapore for scam prevention meetings
    Minister of Commerce and Consumer Affairs, Andrew Bayly, travels to Singapore today to attend scam and fraud prevention meetings. “Scams are a growing international problem, and we are not immune in New Zealand. Organised criminal networks operate across borders, and we need to work with our Asia-Pacific partners to tackle ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • More help for homeowners impacted by severe weather
    People who were displaced by severe weather events in 2022 and 2023 will be supported by the extension of Temporary Accommodation Assistance through to 30 June 2025. Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says the coalition Government is continuing to help to those who were forced out of their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government to reverse oil and gas exploration ban
    Removing the ban on petroleum exploration beyond onshore Taranaki is part of a suite of proposed amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to deal with the energy security challenges posed by rapidly declining natural gas reserves, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “Natural gas is critical to keeping our lights on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New Zealand and Malaysia to intensify connections
    New Zealand and Malaysia intend to intensify their long-standing, deep connections, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.    “Malaysia is one of New Zealand’s oldest friends in South-East Asia – and both countries intend to get more out of the relationship," Mr Peters says.   "Our connections already run deep and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Ending contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua
    The end of Contracted Emergency Housing (CEH) motels in Rotorua is nearing another milestone as the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) announces it will not renew consents for six of the original 13 motels, Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka says. The government is committed to stop using CEH ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • First Home Grant closure exemptions
    The Government is providing a narrow exemption from the discontinuation of the First Home Grant for first home buyers who may face unfair situations as a result, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “The First Home Grant scheme was closed with immediate effect on 22 May 2024, with savings being reprioritised ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Faster consenting for flood protection projects in Hawke's Bay
    Work to increase flood resilience in Hawke’s Bay can start sooner, thanks to a new fast consenting process, Minister for Emergency Management and Recovery Mark Mitchell and Environment Minister Penny Simmonds say.  “Faster consenting means work to build stop banks, spillways and other infrastructure can get underway sooner, increasing flood ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Judge Craig Coxhead and Nathan Milner newest Māori Land Court appointments
    Tangata tū tangata ora, tangata noho tangata mate. Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka today announced acting Deputy Chief Judge Craig Coxhead as the new Deputy Chief Judge, and Nathan Milner as Judge of the Māori Land Court. "I want to congratulate Judge Coxhead and Mr Milner on their appointments ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government signs Indo-Pacific Economic agreements to boost trade
    Trade Minister Todd McClay and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts, today signed three Indo Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) agreements that will boost investment, grow New Zealand’s digital and green economies and increase trade between New Zealand and the 14 IPEF partners. IPEF’s partners represent 40 per cent of global GDP ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Government signs Indo-Pacific Economic agreements to boost trade and cooperation
    Trade Minister Todd McClay and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts, today signed three Indo Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) agreements that will boost investment, grow New Zealand’s digital and green economies and increase trade between New Zealand and the 14 IPEF partners. IPEF’s partners represent 40 per cent of global GDP ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Visit to Viet Nam strengthens ties
    New Zealand and Viet Nam are focused on strengthening cooperation by making progress on mutually beneficial opportunities, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says. “Viet Nam matters enormously to New Zealand," Mr Peters says. "Our countries enjoy broad cooperation, in such areas as defence, security, trade, education and tourism. We are ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Government delivers funding boost to fix potholes
    The Coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to boost funding for pothole prevention, with indicative funding levels confirmed by NZTA showing a record increase in funding to help fix potholes on our State Highways and Local Roads, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  The NZTA Board has today confirmed indicative ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Government making fuel resilience a priority
    The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment will halt work on procuring reserve diesel stock and explore other ways to bolster New Zealand’s diesel resilience, Associate Energy Minister Shane Jones says. The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) will also begin work on changes to the minimum fuel stockholding ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Govt strengthens COVID-19 preparedness
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says additional supplies of COVID-19 rapid antigen tests (RATs) will enable New Zealanders to continue testing this winter.  “In January, we announced an extension of public access to free RATs until the end of June,” Dr Reti says.  “I’m pleased to confirm that Health New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • NZ and Fiji commit to strengthening partnership
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has met with his Fijian counterpart, Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka, and discussed how New Zealand and Fiji can further strengthen their partnership.  During their bilateral talks in Suva this morning, Mr Luxon and Mr Rabuka canvassed a range of issues including defence and regional security, trade, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Making it easier to invest in New Zealand
    The Associate Minister of Finance David Seymour has issued a new Ministerial directive letter to Land Information New Zealand (LINZ) to make consent processing timeframes faster under the Overseas Investment Act.  “New Zealand is currently rated as having the most restrictive foreign direct investment policy out of the OECD countries ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • $30m investment for faster access to radiology services
    New Zealanders will now benefit from free access to radiology services referred directly by their general practitioner, resulting in faster diagnosis and improved health outcomes, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “Our Budget last Thursday delivered the foundations for a thriving New Zealand economy, but also for better public services ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech to Pacific Economic Development Agency – Pacific Business Trust
    Good afternoon everyone, and warm Pacific greetings. Thank you for your lovely introduction Mary Losé. It’s wonderful to be here today at the Pacific Economic Development Agency - Pacific Business Trust. I want to acknowledge the chair Paul Retimanu and chief executive Mary Losé, your team and the many business ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Progress for fixing the Holidays Act 2003
    The Minister for Workplace Relations and Safety Brooke van Velden says this Government will improve the Holidays Act 2003 [the Act] with the help of businesses and workers who will be affected by changes to the Act.  “Change has been a long time coming, and I know there are many ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand and Niue mark special milestone
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Niue Premier Dalton Tagelagi have agreed to enhance the special relationship that exists between their two countries, as Niue marks 50 years of self-government in free association with New Zealand. Mr Luxon and Mr Tagelagi held formal talks this morning and released a Joint Statement ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Ministry for Regulation kicks off first sector review – Early Childhood Education
    Minister for Regulation David Seymour today announced the terms of reference for the sector review into early childhood education (ECE) by the new Ministry for Regulation. This will be the first review by the Ministry.   “Issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • $43 million commitment for local catchment groups
    The Government is backing farmers to improve land management practices with a $36 million commitment to support locally led catchment groups, and an additional $7 million direct investment into catchment groups across the country, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay has announced. “Budget 2024 provides $36 million over four years for regionally based ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • $36 million commitment for local catchment groups
    The Government is backing farmers to improve land management practices with a $36 million commitment to support locally led catchment groups, $7 million of which will go directly to catchment groups across the country, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay has announced. “Budget 2024 provides $36 million over four years for regionally based ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Communities reap rewards of regional investment
    The success of regional investment in the Far North has been highlighted with the opening of two community projects that benefit their communities, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones attended a dawn blessing for the $10.16 million Te Hiku Revitalisation project, which has provided much-needed community infrastructure improvements ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government to sign groundbreaking Indo-Pacific agreements
    Trade Minister Todd McClay and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts travel to Singapore tomorrow to sign three Indo Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) agreements.  IPEF’s 14 partners represent 40 per cent of global GDP and account for 50 per cent of New Zealand’s exports. They include critical markets for Kiwi exporters ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • King’s Birthday Honours recognise significant contributions to education
    Minister of Education Erica Stanford today recognises the significant achievements of those included in the King’s Birthday 2024 Honours List, particularly those being celebrated for their services to education. “This year’s King’s Birthday Honours recognises the commitment, dedication and passion that those who have been honoured have shown,” Ms Stanford ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • King’s Birthday Honours for East Coast champion
    Me aro koe ki te hā o Hine-ahu-one The devotion shown by Katareina Kaiwai to improving the lives of people across her community is an inspiration to all New Zealanders, Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka says. Katareina Kaiwai (Ngāti Porou, Rongomaiwahine, Ngāti Kahungunu ki Heretaunga) has been awarded a King’s Service Medal ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

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