Is This The Boom We Wanted?

Written By: - Date published: 11:20 am, March 4th, 2022 - 65 comments
Categories: Economy, Environment, farming, Free Trade, Russia, trade - Tags:

New Zealand’s time as high end ingredients producer to the world has arrived. But it has big costs.

While we started off at just over $2 a kilo for milk solids a decade ago, by 2019 we were at $7, and even before the war started, this season was going for $9.60.

Fonterra lifts forecast farmgate milk price to record midpoint of $9.60 per kg milk solids.

Every dairy farmer will be motivated to produce hard if the price was heading for $10 – $11 a kilo.

Lamb is heading for 742 cents per kilo, which is up on the five year average.

Global foodservice sector recovery is strong, and China is losing its appetite for pigs since they’ve culled so many, and are continuing to develop more expensive tastes.

On the other side of the world, the Russian invasion of Ukraine will rock grain and fertiliser prices across the world.

Ukraine accounts for 12% of global wheat exports, and together Russia and Ukraine together make up nearly 33% of global wheat exports. Ukraine is also huge in Sunflower oil, barley, corn, and potatoes. Also fertiliser.

“Be in no doubt, this is a dangerous day for global food security and food prices too, with humanitarian risks that stretch far and wide,” tweeted James Withers, the Chief Executive of Scotland Food & Drink shortly after the Russian invasion of its neighbour began.

The Food and Drink Federation’s Chief Executive, Karen Betts, added: “Past experience tells us that disruption to Ukraine’s exports will have an impact on global food supplies and on the price of a range of key commodities, such as vegetable oils and maize, which are important in UK food production. This will be further compounded if there are sustained energy price rises, adding to an already troubling inflationary picture.

Obviously, a hungrier world is a more unstable world.

And let’s not forget the new Russian control of all the Ukrainian Black Sea ports making it nigh impossible to export coal. Any stress on ship access at the Bosphorous Strait or at the Black Sea ports will see those food and energy commodity supplies shrink fast. Then prices go up further, as does inflation.

A number of food and beverage manufacturers including Carlsberg, Coca-Cola, Mondelez, and Nestle are already reportedly suspending production or closing plants in the region (could we at least keep the Green & Black’s supply alive?).

As I’ve mentioned before, inflationary pressures in Europe may intensify should Russia decide to cut off or limit energy supplies to Europe, or the EU choose to impose restrictions on energy imports from Russia.

So: New Zealand’s export boom was forecast by the government in December, and this conflict piles it on.

This week the government finally opens the doors to vaccinated people to come from Australia, to complement workers from specific Pacific countries such as the Cook Islands. It’s all hands on deck for the fruit and grape harvests coming on stream now.

But with every step upwards in our agricultural boom, our emissions also boom.

We’ve had a government-supported economic boom driving unemployment down and down for two years, and even before this extra global price pressure, our prospects were forecast to be strong.

Two key political questions arise:

  1. Will the food boom accelerated by European war shift our focus away from diversification, Research and Development and the higher-paying careers and society that we need?
  2. Will the food boom accelerated by European war trap New Zealand into agricultural commodity production so we never achieve our Carbon Nationally Determined Contribution and our Zero Carbon Act target?

65 comments on “Is This The Boom We Wanted? ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Byd0nz 1
    4 March 2022 at 11:44 am

    The World pretends to be democratic, but in reality the GENERALS and Military rule the world, they enjoy war, making and selling arms and WMD, they pollute the planet with their carbon immissions 24/7. Do they care a jot about Climate Change or ordinary citizens of the world, I think not.

    Resources are extracrted and wasted by this Military world by the well healed Generals and the well paid political leaders who do just as they are told, so in short, with the words of Dads Army's Private Frazer " We're A' Doomed.

  2. pat 2
    4 March 2022 at 11:49 am

    yes and yes (not trapped but chosen)

  3. Dennis Frank 3
    4 March 2022 at 11:50 am

    Yes and yes. The majority always go for the low-hanging fruit, whether they be politicians or consumers. So long as the market governs behaviour, this will continue.

  4. Hongi Ika 4
    4 March 2022 at 12:05 pm

    Big money on offer from the NZ Government to plant East Coast pasture in Pinus Radiata Weeds under the dodgy Emissions Trading Scheme.

    • Cricklewood 4.1
      4 March 2022 at 12:10 pm

      Wairarapa as well, that will be a slow moving disaster.

      • Sanctuary 4.1.1
        4 March 2022 at 2:59 pm

        My biggest crystal ball prediction is there is going to be our equivalent of a Flint, Michigan scandal with a bowel cancer catastrophe caused by high nitrate levels in drinking water, especially in rural NZ, in the 2030s-40s. The subsequent Royal Commission will involve lots of hand wringing and opinion pieces on how we allowed it to happen, how come nothing was done and corporate big dairy spokesman Chris Bishop claiming it certainly isn't their fault it was all a result of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear meltdown of 2022.

        • ghostwhowalksnz 4.1.1.1
          4 March 2022 at 4:35 pm

          The Flint drinking water crisis was over lead from its pipes in the water supply ( they failed to add corrosion inhibitors, another additive when they changed the supply source)

          And it was a 'through the roof levels'

          The US rural areas have elevated nitrates as well no sign they are at very very critical levels to 'be like Flint'

        • Hongi Ika 4.1.1.2
          4 March 2022 at 7:43 pm

          The soddies in NZ have never given a shit about New Zealand's waterways.

  5. weka 5
    4 March 2022 at 12:15 pm

    another compelling reason to vote Green next year (and throw our weight behind them between now and then). Labour need pulling greenwards. We don't have to do extractive farming, we could do regenag and still have a decent economy. We need people with vision and the imagination on how to do that.

    • Hongi Ika 5.1
      4 March 2022 at 1:39 pm

      If you watch some documentaries on this topic these organic farming systems are actually more profitable than the high cost heavy input farming models.

      • weka 5.1.1
        4 March 2022 at 2:04 pm

        that's my understanding. They use more land and have lower stocking rates but need less inputs. They also increase biodiversity, protect water, and don't rely as much on fossil fuels or artificial fertiliser. Lots of compounding benefits beyond economics but that also support the economy.

        The problem is that Labour don't have the background for this to be a natural switch. The Greens too.

        • Hongi Ika 5.1.1.1
          4 March 2022 at 2:10 pm

          Most progressive environmentally conscious famers understand these concepts, whether they are National, Labour or Green, it is basic common sense, however the farming of the Canterbury Plains on light soil types relying on huge quantities of water and fertiliser is shear madness imo. The Canterbury Rivers such as the Selwyn River are being used as sewers by the Canterbury Dairy Industry.

          • weka 5.1.1.1.1
            4 March 2022 at 2:19 pm

            yes, there are good farmers out there. The problem is Fed Farmers, the banks, the farm advisors, and government.

            • Ad 5.1.1.1.1.1
              4 March 2022 at 7:05 pm

              You know it's a wee bit bigger than that.

              • Shanreagh …
                4 March 2022 at 7:07 pm

                Perhaps let's start with those ie Fed Farmers, the banks, the farm advisors, and government and if we have time before dinner we'll start on the rest.

                Actually no I favour the Chair in Regenag, then the rest. We’ll demonstrate our success with smiling, educated people on the ground.

              • weka …
                4 March 2022 at 7:09 pm

                I was meaning that those groups lack the will, values and imagination to make the shift to regenag (and in some cases actively block it). I don't underestimate the challenge, but I think having people who already get regenag in some of the positions of power is crucial.

                • Shanreagh …
                  4 March 2022 at 7:15 pm

                  Yes indeed. We need a Three Waters Advocate (at least one) with a side in Regenag on every Council.

    • Hunter Thompson II 5.2
      5 March 2022 at 9:15 am

      "Associate Minister for the Environment Kiri Allan is urging all New Zealanders to give feedback on proposed changes aimed at making drinking water safer.

      “The current regulations are not fit for purpose and don’t offer enough protection, particularly for those whose water comes from smaller supplies,” Kiri Allan said.

      “This was highlighted in the 2016 campylobacter outbreak in Havelock North when close to 60 people were hospitalised.

      “We are proposing improvements in three areas; standardising the way we define source water areas, strengthening regulation of activities around water sources, and adding more water suppliers to the register.

      "The consultation document and online consultation form are available on the Ministry for the Environment's website: https://consult.environment.govt.nz/freshwater/nes-drinking-water."

      Submissions close tomorrow for proposals in this document. Don't know if it will make a difference as the government seems to want nitrate levels that exceed WHO recommended levels.

      • weka 5.2.1
        5 March 2022 at 10:01 am

        the mainstream response is to chlorinate drinking water, which leaves polluters free to keep putting shit in the flow. We need to start at the water end, make sure that our streams, rivers, lakes, wetlands and so on are suitable for aquatic life, and then the clear waters drinkable. Then we can look at the town supply usage end.

        And yes, we're stupid af about other kinds of pollution as well.

        • Hunter Thompson II 5.2.1.1
          5 March 2022 at 11:23 am

          Yes, the politicians are only worried about water coming from the voter's kitchen tap. As long as it looks OK, ie not murky brown, all is well.

          I see today's NZ Herald worries about how Tourism NZ will lure visitors back to this country. They'll do it by promoting the same "clean and green" BS as before, I guess.

    • Ad 5.3
      5 March 2022 at 10:02 am

      None of our political parties are addressing the massive national challenge of Fonterra.

      They are still 80%of our milk production, with suppliers that take about 33% of all of our irrigated water.

      They also have some of the most sophisticated environmental reporting systems of any major agriculture business in the world.

      They are also encouraging strong conversion to organic farming, and have a massive partnership with DoC. Perhaps only AirNZ comes close to this scale of approach in NZ.

      Embracing Sustainability (fonterra.com)

      Greenpeace occasionally has a good crack at them, but we've just had a review of their governing legislation which failed to address anything about climate change or water or environmental impact.

      They are by a long way our most powerful company, and it is they and other milk companies together with their suppliers who will do best out of this food boom.

  6. Sanctuary 6
    4 March 2022 at 1:29 pm

    If world wheat supplies come under critical pressure then NZ will be at the bottom of any list for supply. Australia may help, but I would expect the government would start to query if the Canterbury plains – until recently regarded as ideal for growing wheat – is really that suitable for all those expensive dairy conversions. After all, if you want your cheese on a cracker with your feijoa chutney you gotta have the wheat to make the crackers.

    • Hongi Ika 6.1
      4 March 2022 at 1:41 pm

      We could see wheat and bread prices go through the roof shortly and I think we import most of our wheat from Australia ?

    • pat 6.2
      4 March 2022 at 1:48 pm

      "Most of the wheat eaten in New Zealand comes from Australia where land is cheaper and greater volumes can be grown. It is also cheaper for importers to transport grain from Australia to Auckland than getting grain up from the South Island where most of it is grown, Stewart said."

      https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/124700980/local-farmers-grow-quality-wheat-but-most-of-us-arent-eating-it-heres-why

      • Robert Guyton 6.2.1
        4 March 2022 at 3:15 pm

        Wheat's a curse on European consumer's health (intolerances) as corn curses/makes ill, Americans. Over-used, both. Conventional wheat-growing uses very high levels of nitrate fertiliser to achieve profitable crops. They threaten the aquifer/rivers more than dairy.

      • Ad 6.2.2
        4 March 2022 at 3:33 pm

        Immediate supply may not be an issue for New Zealand but price will be.

        Ukraine and Russian wheat often tends to go to developing countries.

        But it's the same global market.

        • pat 6.2.2.1
          4 March 2022 at 6:05 pm

          supply is an issue related to price….its why food poor populations dont buy our dairy and meat.

          With food inflation (and wider) the price of a loaf of bread is going to count…indeed it is more likely to impact an election outcome than most other issues.

          • Ad 6.2.2.1.1
            4 March 2022 at 6:57 pm

            OMG I just wrote a post about the relationship of the Ukraine war to New Zealand food prices. So thanks for just repeating my own point back to me, without any references.

            Inflation is barely an issue in any poll yet. Let's see if the Reserve Bank gets up to 5%. We're a long, long way from the late 1980s and 1990s.

    • weka 6.3
      4 March 2022 at 2:08 pm

      I would hope so. Not too hard for NZ to grow our own wheat if we need to. There's a fair amount of cropping land doing dairy support as well. We're not going to starve, the issue is more about how stupid we are thinking making a lot of money from dairy is better than food resiliency. Money's not much good if the international supply is fucked. Tricky bit is all that money invested in dairy infrastructure and how we would downscale it, especially if it wasn't a crisis. I can't imagine us doing it unless there is an actual crisis tbh, and I doubt rising bread prices will count as that.

      • Sanctuary 6.3.1
        4 March 2022 at 2:22 pm

        If you think a lot of rural communities are half way down the rabbit hole already wait and see what the reaction will be to the Economic Rationalisation (Farming) act of 2024 when the government starts a) centrally controlling at least some of the land use in the country for security of supply of basic foodstuffs and b) regulating price and distribution to make sure the squatocracy of Canterbury doesn't export all our wheat while we starve just to get a better price overseas.

        It'll be a crazed swooning of farmers where making sure New Zealanders have bread to eat will be parsed into a forced collectivisation comparable to the Homodor.

        • Robert Guyton 6.3.1.1
          4 March 2022 at 2:50 pm

          Which Government?

          The word "squatocracy" so elicits the image of the huge Nick Smith "dropping his kids off at the pool" statue!

      • Patricia Bremner 6.3.2
        4 March 2022 at 3:20 pm

        Most bakers would prefer the Australian flour for its stronger crumb. New Zealand flour tends to have a wet crumb, and have to be blended with quality flour. Our product is good otherwise.

  7. PsyclingLeft.Always 7
    4 March 2022 at 2:44 pm

    https://www.odt.co.nz/rural-life/rural-life-other/water-battle-won-%E2%80%98sour-taste%E2%80%99-remains

    https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/central-otago/accusation-outside-interests-hold-sway-orc

    In my Opinion : Farmers/ORC are happy to see irrigation reducing River…to 8% of its flow…..because their grandfathers did. Theres the problem. Dinosaurs.

    • Robert Guyton 7.1
      4 March 2022 at 2:52 pm

      "Grand-parenting" is a term heard often around regional council offices.

      There are other expressions that describe that thinking, but hey, family show.

    • Ad 7.2
      4 March 2022 at 7:03 pm

      Hence the 3-Waters programme to rip it out of regional and TLA hands.

      Parker is from Dunedin and is well across the ORC.

  8. PsyclingLeft.Always 8
    4 March 2022 at 2:52 pm

    He had consumed oat milk overseas and the product was the fastest growing dairy-free milk available, he said.

    The global non-dairy milk market was expected to reach revenues of more than $US38billion ($NZ58billion) by 2024.

    While there were many plant-based alternatives, such as soy, almond, coconut and rice milk, none were grown locally.

    https://www.odt.co.nz/business/local-business/entrepreneur-aiming-take-oat-milk-world

    Not Dinosaur

    • Robert Guyton 8.1
      4 March 2022 at 2:55 pm

      A livestock farmer struggles mightily to discard the work and philosophy of his father and his father's father; livestock farmers before him..all that effort and sacrifice, chucked away, to grow… effing oats!!

      • PsyclingLeft.Always 8.1.1
        4 March 2022 at 3:07 pm

        Even kicking and screaming…… : )

      • weka 8.1.2
        4 March 2022 at 4:26 pm

        my grandfather was a sheep farmer. We all grew up eating oats. He would have understood the value.

        Not the idea that oat gruel is a milk though, that's just weird.

        Oats, dairy, wheat, veg, we should be growing it all locally as much as possible.

        • weka 8.1.2.1
          4 March 2022 at 4:29 pm

          Just make the oat drink at home and save all that packaging, waste and transport

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brose

          In the 16th century, a mixture of oatmeal and water was carried by shepherds; brose resulted from the agitation of the mixture as they climbed the hills.[1]

          Put it in the kids’ drink bottles, builds strong bones and nerves.

    • Ad 8.2
      4 March 2022 at 7:02 pm

      All we need to do is …

      … roll back 3 decades of state and private investment in irrigation across the entire South Island, together with multiple milk companies, covering hundreds of thousands of hectares, and several billion of bank debt.

      Still, go with the oats thing.

  9. PsyclingLeft.Always 9
    4 March 2022 at 3:05 pm

    Farmers who have not yet made plans for the drying climate would be wise to do so says ruminant animal nutrition expert Professor Tom Barry of Massey University.

    https://thisnzlife.co.nz/6-pasture-plants-will-make-drought/

    And the Chicory sounds interesting? Is possible ?

    • Robert Guyton 9.1
      4 March 2022 at 3:12 pm

      Chicory's tricky. Reseeding requires letting it get very tall and stalky. Seed has to be bought fresh, unless chicory's grown as strips alongside of the paddock. Or something along those lines. Plantains the easiest, but has already been commodified/industrialised/commercialized. It's regarded by many conventional farmers as "as far as I'll go!" No sunflowers and phacelia for them!

    • Patricia Bremner 9.2
      4 March 2022 at 3:28 pm

      Mixed farming will be in "vogue"

      Some crops do better in wet/dry conditions than others, and a variety providing differing income streams and regenerative practices will become more popular than the monoculture version, where transport becomes a big component in costs.
      Planting hedges of Lavender sunflowers and crops for stock lupins to plough back in…

      Adapt or die.

      • weka 9.2.1
        4 March 2022 at 4:31 pm

        I love the regenerative takeover of this post.

      • Shanreagh 9.2.2
        4 March 2022 at 6:20 pm

        Mixed farming used to be in vogue against the idea of putting all your eggs, as it were, in one $$$$ basket. Many farmers were envious of others who had a mix of land that allowed this. We have new crops and different crops can be grown on land.

        Of course you don't get the big $$$$ highs as when you go all out dairying etc. Some farmers still have niche parts such as seed raising. Some do things like large-ish scale niche bee keeping or allow specialist beekeepers to do it on their properties with a return a bit bigger than a supply of honey or comb throughout the year.

        I'm all for regenag. Perhaps we can get a Chair or Faculty in Regenag at Lincoln or Massey?

        I shook my piggy bank just recently to see if it would stretch for some honoraria for TS authors so I know it only has 10c in it. I need to win Lotto. smiley

        • Ad 9.2.2.1
          4 March 2022 at 7:00 pm

          Massey Palmerston North is functionally a client of Dairy NZ and Fonterra.

          Lincoln is well and truly a partner of AgResearch.

          • Shanreagh 9.2.2.1.1
            4 March 2022 at 7:05 pm

            Yes I had done a quick scan of Massey and found nothing there, rather sterile i thought and status quo…….Lincoln though influenced by Ag Research seemed to have a potential for a Chair when I win lotto.

            Or perhaps take over Telford….

            I favour moving in plain sight though.

  10. Shanreagh 10
    4 March 2022 at 6:42 pm

    There are a couple of level 2/3 units at Lincoln

    Agroecology 309 from an ecosystem point of view, which is a start.

    1. Explain the role of biodiversity and ecosystem structure and function in production systems.
    2. Describe the opportunities, benefits and advantages of incorporating ecological knowledge into modern agricultural practices.
    3. Assess the economic and environmental value of ecosystem service suppliers, their role and status.
    4. Understand the implementation of rigorous experimental designs in a practical argoecology study.
    5. Collect data, analyse results and interpret the findings from an experimental agroecology study.
    6. Communicate coherent, justifiable arguments of agroecology, their values, benefits and limitations.

    Land water atmosphere PHSC211

    https://www.lincoln.ac.nz/study/courses-2/course-search/land-water-and-atmosphere/

    Plant health Bios 022

    https://www.lincoln.ac.nz/study/courses-2/course-search/plant-health/

    This one and the tutor look promising.

    The Economics of Food markets and Policy

    Landscape Ecology

    https://www.lincoln.ac.nz/study/courses-2/course-search/landscape-ecology/

    We will need people who can do this

    https://www.lincoln.ac.nz/study/courses-2/course-search/special-topic-in-social-entrepreneurship/

    and these

    https://www.lincoln.ac.nz/study/courses-2/course-search/risk-and-resilience-2/

    https://www.lincoln.ac.nz/study/courses-2/course-search/the-economics-of-food-markets-and-policy/

    But nothing that I can see that really teases out regenag. Some of the courses I have highlighted would be useful, as they are in many conventional ag courses.

  12. Stuart Munro 12
    4 March 2022 at 10:13 pm

    I wonder who is experiencing this as a boom. Butter has gone up $2 a pound where I live – and I don't see a wage bump to cover it.

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    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Thursday, July 25 are:News: Why Electric Kiwi is closing to new customers - and why it matters RNZ’s Susan EdmundsScoop: Government drops ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • The Possum: Demon or Friend?

    Hi,I felt a small wet tongue snaking through one of the holes in my Crocs. It explored my big toe, darting down one side, then the other. “He’s looking for some toe cheese,” said the woman next to me, words that still haunt me to this day.Growing up in New ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    2 days ago
  • Not a story

    Yesterday I happily quoted the Prime Minister without fact-checking him and sure enough, it turns out his numbers were all to hell. It’s not four kg of Royal Commission report, it’s fourteen.My friend and one-time colleague-in-comms Hazel Phillips gently alerted me to my error almost as soon as I’d hit ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Thursday, July 25

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Thursday, July 25, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day were:The Abuse in Care Royal Commission of Inquiry published its final report yesterday.PM Christopher Luxon and The Minister responsible for ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • A tougher line on “proactive release”?

    The Official Information Act has always been a battle between requesters seeking information, and governments seeking to control it. Information is power, so Ministers and government agencies want to manage what is released and when, for their own convenience, and legality and democracy be damned. Their most recent tactic for ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • 'Let's build a motorway costing $100 million per km, before emissions costs'

    TL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:Transport and Energy Minister Simeon Brown is accelerating plans to spend at least $10 billion through Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) to extend State Highway One as a four-lane ‘Expressway’ from Warkworth to Whangarei ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Lester's Prescription – Positive Bleeding.

    I live my life (woo-ooh-ooh)With no control in my destinyYea-yeah, yea-yeah (woo-ooh-ooh)I can bleed when I want to bleedSo come on, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)You can bleed when you want to bleedYea-yeah, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)Everybody bleed when they want to bleedCome on and bleedGovernments face tough challenges. Selling unpopular decisions to ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • Casey Costello gaslights Labour in the House

    Please note:To skip directly to the- parliamentary footage in the video, scroll to 1:21 To skip to audio please click on the headphone icon on the left hand side of the screenThis video / audio section is under development. ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    3 days ago
  • Why is the Texas grid in such bad shape?

    This is a re-post from the Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler Headline from 2021 The Texas grid, run by ERCOT, has had a rough few years. In 2021, winter storm Uri blacked out much of the state for several days. About a week ago, Hurricane Beryl knocked out ...
    Skeptical Science
    3 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on a textbook case of spending waste by the Luxon government

    Given the crackdown on wasteful government spending, it behooves me to point to a high profile example of spending by the Luxon government that looks like a big, fat waste of time and money. I’m talking about the deployment of NZDF personnel to support the US-led coalition in the Red ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    3 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Wednesday, July 24

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:40 am on Wednesday, July 24 are:Deep Dive: Chipping away at the housing crisis, including my comments RNZ/Newsroom’s The DetailNews: Government softens on asset sales, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • LXR Takaanini

    As I reported about the city centre, Auckland’s rail network is also going through a difficult and disruptive period which is rapidly approaching a culmination, this will result in a significant upgrade to the whole network. Hallelujah. Also like the city centre this is an upgrade predicated on the City ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    3 days ago
  • Four kilograms of pain

    Today, a 4 kilogram report will be delivered to Parliament. We know this is what the report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care weighs, because our Prime Minister told us so.Some reporter had blindsided him by asking a question about something done by ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Wednesday, July 24

    TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Wednesday, July 24, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Beehive: Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced plans to use PPPs to fund, build and run a four-lane expressway between Auckland ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Luxon gets caught out

    NewstalkZB host Mike Hosking, who can usually be relied on to give Prime Minister Christopher Luxon an easy run, did not do so yesterday when he interviewed him about the HealthNZ deficit. Luxon is trying to use a deficit reported last year by HealthNZ as yet another example of the ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • A worrying sign

    Back in January a StatsNZ employee gave a speech at Rātana on behalf of tangata whenua in which he insulted and criticised the government. The speech clearly violated the principle of a neutral public service, and StatsNZ started an investigation. Part of that was getting an external consultant to examine ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Are we fine with 47.9% home-ownership by 2048?

    Renting for life: Shared ownership initiatives are unlikely to slow the slide in home ownership by much. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:A Deloitte report for Westpac has projected Aotearoa’s home-ownership rate will ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Let's Win This

    You're broken down and tiredOf living life on a merry go roundAnd you can't find the fighterBut I see it in you so we gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsWe gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsAnd I'll rise upI'll rise like the dayI'll rise upI'll rise unafraidI'll rise upAnd I'll ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Waimahara: The Singing Spirit of Water

    There’s been a change in Myers Park. Down the steps from St. Kevin’s Arcade, past the grassy slopes, the children’s playground, the benches and that goat statue, there has been a transformation. The underpass for Mayoral Drive has gone from a barren, grey, concrete tunnel, to a place that thrums ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    4 days ago
  • A major milestone: Global climate pollution may have just peaked

    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Global society may have finally slammed on the brakes for climate-warming pollution released by human fossil fuel combustion. According to the Carbon Monitor Project, the total global climate pollution released between February and May 2024 declined slightly from the amount released during the same ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Tuesday, July 23

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Tuesday, July 23 are:Deep Dive: Penlink: where tolling rhetoric meets reality BusinessDesk-$$$’s Oliver LewisScoop: Te Pūkenga plans for regional polytechs leak out ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Tuesday, July 23

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Tuesday, July 23, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Health: Shane Reti announced the Board of Te Whatu Ora- Health New Zealand was being replaced with Commissioner Lester Levy ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • HealthNZ and Luxon at cross purposes over budget blowout

    Health NZ warned the Government at the end of March that it was running over Budget. But the reasons it gave were very different to those offered by the Prime Minister yesterday. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon blamed the “botched merger” of the 20 District Health Boards (DHBs) to create Health ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • 2500-3000 more healthcare staff expected to be fired, as Shane Reti blames Labour for a budget defic...

    Long ReadKey Summary: Although National increased the health budget by $1.4 billion in May, they used an old funding model to project health system costs, and never bothered to update their pre-election numbers. They were told during the Health Select Committees earlier in the year their budget amount was deficient, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    4 days ago
  • Might Kamala Harris be about to get a 'stardust' moment like Jacinda Ardern?

    As a momentous, historic weekend in US politics unfolded, analysts and commentators grasped for precedents and comparisons to help explain the significance and power of the choice Joe Biden had made. The 46th president had swept the Democratic party’s primaries but just over 100 days from the election had chosen ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    5 days ago
  • Solutions Interview: Steven Hail on MMT & ecological economics

    TL;DR: I’m casting around for new ideas and ways of thinking about Aotearoa’s political economy to find a few solutions to our cascading and self-reinforcing housing, poverty and climate crises.Associate Professor runs an online masters degree in the economics of sustainability at Torrens University in Australia and is organising ...
    The KakaBy Steven Hail
    5 days ago
  • Reported back

    The Finance and Expenditure Committee has reported back on National's Local Government (Water Services Preliminary Arrangements) Bill. The bill sets up water for privatisation, and was introduced under urgency, then rammed through select committee with no time even for local councils to make a proper submission. Naturally, national's select committee ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Vandrad the Viking, Christopher Coombes, and Literary Archaeology

    Some years ago, I bought a book at Dunedin’s Regent Booksale for $1.50. As one does. Vandrad the Viking (1898), by J. Storer Clouston, is an obscure book these days – I cannot find a proper online review – but soon it was sitting on my shelf, gathering dust alongside ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell On The Biden Withdrawal

    History is not on the side of the centre-left, when Democratic presidents fall behind in the polls and choose not to run for re-election. On both previous occasions in the past 75 years (Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1968) the Democrats proceeded to then lose the White House ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    5 days ago
  • Joe Biden's withdrawal puts the spotlight back on Kamala and the USA's complicated relatio...

    This is a free articleCoverageThis morning, US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race. And that is genuinely newsworthy. Thanks for your service, President Biden, and all the best to you and yours.However, the media in New Zealand, particularly the 1News nightly bulletin, has been breathlessly covering ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    5 days ago
  • Why we have to challenge our national fiscal assumptions

    A homeless person’s camp beside a blocked-off slipped damage walkway in Freeman’s Bay: we are chasing our tail on our worsening and inter-related housing, poverty and climate crises. Photo: Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Existential Crisis and Damaged Brains

    What has happened to it all?Crazy, some'd sayWhere is the life that I recognise?(Gone away)But I won't cry for yesterdayThere's an ordinary worldSomehow I have to findAnd as I try to make my wayTo the ordinary worldYesterday morning began as many others - what to write about today? I began ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • A speed limit is not a target, and yet…

    This is a guest post from longtime supporter Mr Plod, whose previous contributions include a proposal that Hamilton become New Zealand’s capital city, and that we should switch which side of the road we drive on. A recent Newsroom article, “Back to school for the Govt’s new speed limit policy“, ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Monday, July 22

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Monday, July 22 are:Today’s Must Read: Father and son live in a tent, and have done for four years, in a million ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Monday, July 22

    TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Monday, July 22, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:US President Joe Biden announced via X this morning he would not stand for a second term.Multinational professional services firm ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #29

    A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 14, 2024 thru Sat, July 20, 2024. Story of the week As reflected by preponderance of coverage, our Story of the Week is Project 2025. Until now traveling ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago
  • I'd like to share what I did this weekend

    This weekend, a friend pointed out someone who said they’d like to read my posts, but didn’t want to pay. And my first reaction was sympathy.I’ve already told folks that if they can’t comfortably subscribe, and would like to read, I’d be happy to offer free subscriptions. I don’t want ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • For the children – Why mere sentiment can be a misleading force in our lives, and lead to unex...

    National: The Party of ‘Law and Order’ IntroductionThis weekend, the Government formally kicked off one of their flagship policy programs: a military style boot camp that New Zealand has experimented with over the past 50 years. Cartoon credit: Guy BodyIt’s very popular with the National Party’s Law and Order image, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • A friend in uncertain times

    Day one of the solo leg of my long journey home begins with my favourite sound: footfalls in an empty street. 5.00 am and it’s already light and already too warm, almost.If I can make the train that leaves Budapest later this hour I could be in Belgrade by nightfall; ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • The Chaotic World of Male Diet Influencers

    Hi,We’ll get to the horrific world of male diet influencers (AKA Beefy Boys) shortly, but first you will be glad to know that since I sent out the Webworm explaining why the assassination attempt on Donald Trump was not a false flag operation, I’ve heard from a load of people ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago
  • It's Starting To Look A Lot Like… Y2K

    Do you remember Y2K, the threat that hung over humanity in the closing days of the twentieth century? Horror scenarios of planes falling from the sky, electronic payments failing and ATMs refusing to dispense cash. As for your VCR following instructions and recording your favourite show - forget about it.All ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Bernard’s Saturday Soliloquy for the week to July 20

    Climate Change Minister Simon Watts being questioned by The Kākā’s Bernard Hickey.TL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 20 were:1. A strategy that fails Zero Carbon Act & Paris targetsThe National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government finally unveiled ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Pharmac Director, Climate Change Commissioner, Health NZ Directors – The latest to quit this m...

    Summary:As New Zealand loses at least 12 leaders in the public service space of health, climate, and pharmaceuticals, this month alone, directly in response to the Government’s policies and budget choices, what lies ahead may be darker than it appears. Tui examines some of those departures and draws a long ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    1 week ago
  • Flooding Housing Policy

    The Minister of Housing’s ambition is to reduce markedly the ratio of house prices to household incomes. If his strategy works it would transform the housing market, dramatically changing the prospects of housing as an investment.Leaving aside the Minister’s metaphor of ‘flooding the market’ I do not see how the ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • A Voyage Among the Vandals: Accepted (Again!)

    As previously noted, my historical fantasy piece, set in the fifth-century Mediterranean, was accepted for a Pirate Horror anthology, only for the anthology to later fall through. But in a good bit of news, it turned out that the story could indeed be re-marketed as sword and sorcery. As of ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā's Chorus for Friday, July 19

    An employee of tobacco company Philip Morris International demonstrates a heated tobacco device. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Friday, July 19 are:At a time when the Coalition Government is cutting spending on health, infrastructure, education, housing ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Friday, July 19

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 8:30 am on Friday, July 19 are:Scoop: NZ First Minister Casey Costello orders 50% cut to excise tax on heated tobacco products. The minister has ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Roundup 19-July-2024

    Kia ora, it’s time for another Friday roundup, in which we pull together some of the links and stories that caught our eye this week. Feel free to add more in the comments! Our header image this week shows a foggy day in Auckland town, captured by Patrick Reynolds. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Climate Wrap: A market-led plan for failure

    TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. A discussion recorded yesterday is in the video above and the audio of that sent onto the podcast feed.The Government released its draft Emissions Reduction ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Tobacco First

    Save some money, get rich and old, bring it back to Tobacco Road.Bring that dynamite and a crane, blow it up, start all over again.Roll up. Roll up. Or tailor made, if you prefer...Whether you’re selling ciggies, digging for gold, catching dolphins in your nets, or encouraging folks to flutter ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Trump’s Adopted Son.

    Waiting In The Wings: For truly, if Trump is America’s un-assassinated Caesar, then J.D. Vance is America’s Octavian, the Republic’s youthful undertaker – and its first Emperor.DONALD TRUMP’S SELECTION of James D. Vance as his running-mate bodes ill for the American republic. A fervent supporter of Viktor Orban, the “illiberal” prime ...
    Bowalley Road
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Friday, July 19

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 19, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:The PSA announced the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) had ruled in the PSA’s favour in its case against the Ministry ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Hoon around the week to July 19

    TL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers last night features co-hosts and talking with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent talking about the National-ACT-NZ First Government’s release of its first Emissions Reduction Plan;University of Otago Foreign Relations Professor and special guest Dr Karin von ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #29 2024

    Open access notables Improving global temperature datasets to better account for non-uniform warming, Calvert, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society: To better account for spatial non-uniform trends in warming, a new GITD [global instrumental temperature dataset] was created that used maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to combine the land surface ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 week ago

  • Joint statement from the Prime Ministers of Canada, Australia and New Zealand

    Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on the need for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and the risk of expanded conflict between Hizballah and Israel. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The human suffering is unacceptable. It cannot continue.  We remain unequivocal in our condemnation of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago
  • AG reminds institutions of legal obligations

    Attorney-General Judith Collins today reminded all State and faith-based institutions of their legal obligation to preserve records relevant to the safety and wellbeing of those in its care. “The Abuse in Care Inquiry’s report has found cases where records of the most vulnerable people in State and faith‑based institutions were ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • More young people learning about digital safety

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government’s online safety website for children and young people has reached one million page views.  “It is great to see so many young people and their families accessing the site Keep It Real Online to learn how to stay safe online, and manage ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • Speech to the Conference for General Practice 2024

    Tēnā tātou katoa,  Ngā mihi te rangi, ngā mihi te whenua, ngā mihi ki a koutou, kia ora mai koutou. Thank you for the opportunity to be here and the invitation to speak at this 50th anniversary conference. I acknowledge all those who have gone before us and paved the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Employers and payroll providers ready for tax changes

    New Zealand’s payroll providers have successfully prepared to ensure 3.5 million individuals will, from Wednesday next week, be able to keep more of what they earn each pay, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Revenue Minister Simon Watts.  “The Government's tax policy changes are legally effective from Wednesday. Delivering this tax ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    24 hours ago
  • Experimental vineyard futureproofs wine industry

    An experimental vineyard which will help futureproof the wine sector has been opened in Blenheim by Associate Regional Development Minister Mark Patterson. The covered vineyard, based at the New Zealand Wine Centre – Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa, enables controlled environmental conditions. “The research that will be produced at the Experimental ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Funding confirmed for regions affected by North Island Weather Events

    The Coalition Government has confirmed the indicative regional breakdown of North Island Weather Event (NIWE) funding for state highway recovery projects funded through Budget 2024, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Regions in the North Island suffered extensive and devastating damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Floods, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Indonesian Foreign Minister to visit

    Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, will visit New Zealand next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced.   “Indonesia is important to New Zealand’s security and economic interests and is our closest South East Asian neighbour,” says Mr Peters, who is currently in Laos to engage with South East Asian partners. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Strengthening partnership with Ngāti Maniapoto

    He aha te kai a te rangatira? He kōrero, he kōrero, he kōrero. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the aspirations of Ngāti Maniapoto, Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka says. “My thanks to Te Nehenehenui Trust – Ngāti Maniapoto for bringing their important kōrero to a ministerial ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Transport Minister thanks outgoing CAA Chair

    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has thanked outgoing Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority, Janice Fredric, for her service to the board.“I have received Ms Fredric’s resignation from the role of Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority,” Mr Brown says.“On behalf of the Government, I want to thank Ms Fredric for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Test for Customary Marine Title being restored

    The Government is proposing legislation to overturn a Court of Appeal decision and amend the Marine and Coastal Area Act in order to restore Parliament’s test for Customary Marine Title, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says.  “Section 58 required an applicant group to prove they have exclusively used and occupied ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Opposition united in bad faith over ECE sector review

    Regulation Minister David Seymour says that opposition parties have united in bad faith, opposing what they claim are ‘dangerous changes’ to the Early Childhood Education sector, despite no changes even being proposed yet.  “Issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation, has led ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Kiwis having their say on first regulatory review

    After receiving more than 740 submissions in the first 20 days, Regulation Minister David Seymour is asking the Ministry for Regulation to extend engagement on the early childhood education regulation review by an extra two weeks.  “The level of interest has been very high, and from the conversations I’ve been ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government upgrading Lower North Island commuter rail

    The Coalition Government is investing $802.9 million into the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines as part of a funding agreement with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, and the Greater Wellington and Horizons Regional Councils to deliver more reliable services for commuters in the lower North Island, Transport Minister Simeon ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government moves to ensure flood protection for Wairoa

    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced his intention to appoint a Crown Manager to both Hawke’s Bay Regional and Wairoa District Councils to speed up the delivery of flood protection work in Wairoa."Recent severe weather events in Wairoa this year, combined with damage from Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • PM speech to Parliament – Royal Commission of Inquiry’s Report into Abuse in Care

    Mr Speaker, this is a day that many New Zealanders who were abused in State care never thought would come. It’s the day that this Parliament accepts, with deep sorrow and regret, the Report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care.  At the heart of this report are the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges torture at Lake Alice

    For the first time, the Government is formally acknowledging some children and young people at Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital experienced torture. The final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care “Whanaketia – through pain and trauma, from darkness to light,” was tabled in Parliament ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges courageous abuse survivors

    The Government has acknowledged the nearly 2,400 courageous survivors who shared their experiences during the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse in State and Faith-Based Care. The final report from the largest and most complex public inquiry ever held in New Zealand, the Royal Commission Inquiry “Whanaketia – through ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Half a million people use tax calculator

    With a week to go before hard-working New Zealanders see personal income tax relief for the first time in fourteen years, 513,000 people have used the Budget tax calculator to see how much they will benefit, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis.  “Tax relief is long overdue. From next Wednesday, personal income ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Paid Parental Leave improvements pass first reading

    Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says a bill that has passed its first reading will improve parental leave settings and give non-biological parents more flexibility as primary carer for their child. The Regulatory Systems Amendment Bill (No3), passed its first reading this morning. “It includes a change ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Rebuilding the economy through better regulation

    Two Bills designed to improve regulation and make it easier to do business have passed their first reading in Parliament, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. The Regulatory Systems (Economic Development) Amendment Bill and Regulatory Systems (Immigration and Workforce) Amendment Bill make key changes to legislation administered by the Ministry ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • ‘Open banking’ and ‘open electricity’ on the way

    New legislation paves the way for greater competition in sectors such as banking and electricity, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Competitive markets boost productivity, create employment opportunities and lift living standards. To support competition, we need good quality regulation but, unfortunately, a recent OECD report ranked New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Charity lotteries to be permitted to operate online

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says lotteries for charitable purposes, such as those run by the Heart Foundation, Coastguard NZ, and local hospices, will soon be allowed to operate online permanently. “Under current laws, these fundraising lotteries are only allowed to operate online until October 2024, after which ...
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