It will happen, not today, not tomorrow but…

Written By: - Date published: 9:33 pm, October 18th, 2009 - 30 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

As I scanned the stuff website I came across the latest TV3 poll results. Scarcely what I’d regard as cheerful Sunday night reading (National on 59.9%, Labour 27.2%, Greens 6.9% ). But upon reading Duncan Garner’s blog I decided that while the sea change might not be happening now the signs are there that it will happen – not today, not tomorrow but eventually. Garner says

[Key’s] Government is loose and at times reckless. It’s burning political capital like Scott Dixon burns rubber. Key is no overbearing micro-manager like Helen Clark. He trusts some of his Ministers to get on with the job – when some of them aren’t up to it.

Over the last couple of weeks we’ve seen some pretty good examples of Ministerial incompetence. It will be interesting to see what note the political year ends on, with only a couple more sessions of the House until MPs disappear for the summer break. The pressure is on – and it’s showing.

30 comments on “It will happen, not today, not tomorrow but…”

  1. John Dalley 1

    Poles at this time of the election cycle are a complete waste of time.
    National are only 12 months into their first time and the wheels are starting to fall of.
    Does anyone really think that many people who voted National are going to admit that they seriously stuffed up so soon. Not on your life.

    • Dancr 1.1

      I agree that most people won’t even notice there’s been a poll, and would care even less. However I don’t think you can underestimate the psychological impact on the politicians. The rush of blood to the head could have some interesting ramifications for a) coalition relations and b) policy timetables.

  2. gingercrush 3

    When is eventually? 2012/2013? This is looking like a replay of the Labour government 1999-2008. Five good years then the opposition crawls themselves back. If National has a failure of competencey. Labour has a huge problem in they can’t get the basics right. This is an utter disaster for Labour. No one is suggesting Labour will be polling high at this time. But they’re going backwards. Your former leader is doing better than the current leader. Since the conference that actually received very favourable coverage, your leader has disappeared. The Labour opposition appear negative in everything they have to say. That may work with a government that has already had one term and is well into their second. It doesn’t work when the government has only been in government for one year.

    Also continuous bad polls will only add to troubles for Goff. There will be all sorts of leadership questions by the media. Its already happening. People are looking for someone to replace Goff. Such talk is never healthy, it only adds to trouble.

    As for what you said John Dalley. Are you seeing the polls? National have a higher percentage than what they got at the election. So its not National voters thinking they made a mistake. Its Labour voters switching to National. Also National has shown they can make mistakes and still poll well. Its the same formula that worked for Labour after the 1999 election. Mistakes are costly when you have a tired government. This is still a government of one year.

    Labour, the Greens (who aren’t polling that well) and its supporters need to get real and realise if they don’t make changes soon they will have the 2002-like horrific election. You lot make all types of excuses and have been doing so since Key became the leader of National. Its time to move on and come up with something new. Because unless you make changes between now and February (news is much lighter during the summer months and politics is in recess for near 3 months) you will lose the 2011 election and you will lose it badly.

  3. Losing the Treasury benches results from accumulated errors, loss of control of the political agenda, and the media turning against you. This administration has already succeeded spectacularly in all three failings – enough to make it comparable to the third term of the Clark administration after only 12 months in office.

    The last administration held all three together until the end of its first term and won handsomely in 2002, but only just scraped through on 2005 after racking up plenty of points on the killer three failings, and got thumped in 2008.

    The Key-led rightwing bloc only just scraped through in 2008 and wouldn’t have got in at all if Peters had won Tauranga or got another 0.7% of the party vote. It’s doubtful they’ll have the support of the Maori Party in 2011. ACT will be whacked hard by Aucklanders as the enormity of the Super Shity fiasco begins to dawn.

    At the rate they’re going the right bloc’s chances of re-election are slim. And that’s not counting the real doozey scandals they’ve yet to endure. The smarter National MPs are already feeling uneasy about what kind of legacy they’ll be associated with.

    • Razorlight 4.1

      Do you not recall the 2001 winter of discontent.

      Labour lost a lot of capital in it’s first 12 month with the media and business. They got through it though because the National opposition was hopeless and very few people wanted National returned to government any time soon.

      The situation mirrors 2009 in my opinion. National are not doing this smoothly but their poularity is high because the Labour leader and opposition are hopeless.

    • Jared 4.2

      Keep making excuses. National didn’t just sneak in last election, they romped in. Compare Nationals 44.93% and a 10.94% margin in 2008 to Labours 41.10% and a 2% margin in 2005 and you see that things had swung dramatically. Also, as much scaremongering as you’d like to purport, the majority of Aucklanders don’t really care about the super city, certainly not the divisive issue you think it is. In reality its an issue taken by those who stand to lose the most (Councils and Left Wingers) and overhyped out of proportion. Im not interested in discussing the statistical breakdown of the coalition partners, suffice to say, National have taken by themselves a larger slice of the vote. The only way Labour is going to return is if they can get the Greens and Maori Party back on side, and I have an awfully funny feeling both still have a bitter taste from the previous 3 years.

      The Maori Party have to be the most interesting out of the bunch to the point where those on the left who were horrified to see the Maori Party enter into a coalition with the National Party have been plotting the end since its inception. Far from the disharmonious relationship you’d like there to be, there are issues, but I sense the feeling Tariana and Pita are more than happy being included in the legislative process. Having a hands on role rather than being the last cab off the rank will do more for the Maori People than being ignored and chastised for not toeing the left line, and in the end, the Maori Party are working for the best interests of the Maori People.

  4. roger nome 5

    gingercrush –

    Bill English has really pissed off the press gallery with his arrogance over the “doubledipton” affair. Garner’s already starting to turn on the Nats, where as before the election he couldn’t stop gushing over that nice man Mr Key. So it’s not looking good.

    Also, to retain its hold on the treasury benches, due to its lack of prospective coalition partners, National has to get over 47% of the popular vote, which is historically, a very rare occurrence. They’ve got one more term in them tops.

    • Doug 5.1

      Roger: If you say the same thing One Thousand times, it’s no more likely to come true. It just sounds like a cracked Record.

      • roger nome 5.1.1

        So you have no criticism of what i’m arguing, other than that you don’t like the fact that i’ve argued it a few times before?

        geee – devastating ….

        • Doug

          Roger: A cracked record still sounds like a cracked record no matter how many times you dress it up.

    • sweetd 5.2

      Roger, Garner gushing for the nats?!?!!??!, have you been sniffing the toner too much? Shall we go back to before the election and remember the lord ashcroft visit and the ambush tactics of Garner on that day, as just one of many when you say Garner is gushing.

      • roger nome 5.2.1

        sweetd – you can’t take one isolated incident and say that it represents a trend. Garner came across as a tory boy during the whole pre-election year.

  5. Em 6

    It is bad news for Labour that Tariana Turia is planning to stay on as Maori party leader. I can’t see her ever going into coalition with Labour- she holds too much resentment towards certain Labour party people. She seems pretty happy with National, and especially happy with her ministers salary.

    I watched her on Q&A yesterday and felt very angry. I disagree with Maori separatism, and her plan to divert a billion dollars to help Maori families riled me. Impoverished people of any colour deserve help. People of all races end up at the bottom of the heap.

    I think Labour may need to take more risks and question some of the things it believes. To be Maori is not necessarily a disadvantage now. If you want to get into Auckland medical school one quarter of the places are open just to people with some Maori and Pacifica ancestry. Your grades can be considerable lower than the equivalent person without that ancestry and you will still get in. Auckland University has a streamlined system that welcomes and nurtures students of Maori and Pacific ancestry. Lucky them. What about non- M&P students who are also struggling with a new and foreign environment ? What help is there for them?

    There must be more than a few votes amongst people who wish New Zealand to be fair and equitable for all people. Labour shouldn’t assume that people who vote left also subscribe to the view that Maori should have special entitlements.

  6. Zaphod Beeblebrox 7

    What does everyone expect? The recession is ending quicker than expected, National have stuck strongly to a middle path (read no taxation or welfare reform at all) and the small government mantra fits the mood of the times.

    No matter what Labour does they will be blamed for anything and everything.

    The interesting thing will be how this changes the Maori Party and ACT party’s behaviour. I suspect they will become more and more strident in their demands since they can’t wait until after 2011 to get favours since by then they will become noisy wall paper again. It might even be to their advantage to destabilise the govt a bit.

  7. I thought the TV3 coverage was rather naughty and that the last week should be the start of the shake up of National’s support.

    Garner made the comment that the polling was done “up until last Wednesday”. I suspect that most of the polling was done during the period when Key was overseas and apeparing on Letterman. Such is modern politics that these things are much more important than competent management.

    The spin was that last week was not damaging to their support and unless I am existing in a parallel universe I cannot believe that this will happen.

    The next poll will be interesting.

    • gitmo 8.1

      No the next poll will be a monumental bore to all except political junkies.

      Unless one of the senior Nats is found buggering an ostrich in the zoo there’ll be very little change……. and even then don’t expect a big swing to Labour/Goff.

      • Armchair Critic 8.1.1

        Tend to agree. The polls will probably not be that interesting for another year or so, and will be really interesting in about 18 months.

        • mike

          It will get even more interesting when Goff sinks even further behind an ex pm living in anther country.

          Will Winston overtake him?- very interesting indeed

          • gitmo

            The voters in this country are so perverse that Winston might get voted back in next time around… hopefully we’ve all seen the back of him.

  8. Doug 9

    All the Protests, Strikes and anti National feeling whipped up by Labour and the Unions work in Nationals favour, so I don’t expect to see much of change in the polls.

    • Zaphod Beeblebrox 9.1

      The more Labour goes on about wage increases and ACC, the more support they will lose. Independent tradespeople and those working in SME’s don’t really care about these things.

  9. torydog 10

    Doug – typical tory mentality that only labour and unions are unhappy with them…….I for one didnt expect the tories to fall apart so soon……but thats what happens when one has style over substance!

    What will the right be saying when the nats are turfed out on there arse…and it will happpen alot sooner then it happened to Labour.

    Helen must be laughting her arse off at the shambles that was voted in last november……i know I am!

    • Doug 10.1

      ToryDog: At 59% in the polls National must of gained allot of Labour core voters, only diehard left members left to fight the battles.

  10. Santi 11

    The Left is bloody doomed. Another five more years of waiting!

  11. gingercrush 12

    I love how Goff is blaming everything on the honeymoon. That still doesn’t explain his personal rating going backwards and behind the former leader of the Labour party. As for his explanation about the media focusing on the government. Certainly that is true. It doesn’t help when you seemingly don’t wish to be in the media.

  12. JD 13

    Maybe its a matter of credibility Ginger, as its hard to take the rantings of Goff against the privatisation of ACC when he was in the 1984 cabinet in cahoots with Roger Douglas. I’ve heard a couple of leftwing labour supporters say he’s to far to the right for their taste.

  13. mike 14

    What I can’t work out is how Phils carefully planned entrance on a borrowed motorbike hasn’t rocketed him up the polls?

    Surely people didn’t see it as a desperate bid to shed the boring old career politician fart image

    • SHG 14.1

      Leadership Characteristics Negative

      talk down to people Goff by 7% (-4%)
      narrow minded Goff by 10% (-2%)
      inflexible Goff by 9% (-2%)
      out of touch Goff by 7% (+4%)

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