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Jacinda or Judith?

Written By: - Date published: 7:47 am, October 16th, 2020 - 65 comments
Categories: election 2020, greens, jacinda ardern, Judith Collins, labour, national, nz first, uncategorized - Tags:

It is election day tomorrow.

This campaign is different to previous campaigns.  Advance voting is phenomenal. As at yesterday morning over 1.5 million people had early voted.  It seems pretty clear that most people have made up their mind and want the campaign finished.

Last night’s Colmar Brunton poll had something for everyone.  The Greens appear to be safer although they regularly outpoll their actual result.  And New Zealand First improved.  They may be back and if this happens it would have a dampening effect on the progressive desires of Labour and Green MPs.

And never assume anything in politics.  There is a nightmare possibility that with a late National surge, the Greens missing out and NZ First somehow surviving that an alternative Government could be cobbled together.

Which is why every progressive vote is so special.  And so important.

There are some fascinating electorate campaigns.

In Tamaki Makaurau a late surge by John Tamihere could see Peeni Henare miss out.  I actually like some of the Maori Party’s policies but they have always sided with National.

In Auckland Central it appears that Chloe Swarbrick will do well but not well enough.  Emma Mellows could sneak through.  I would prefer that National had another Taliban Right MP than an urban liberal MP elected to its caucus.

And last minute Green – Labour party votes could see some very deserving people elected to Parliament.

For Labour Mangere-Otahuhu Local Board Chair and all round good person Lemauga Lydia Sosene is 54 on Labour’s list and has a good chance of being in the next Parliament although there are electorate MPs below her on the list who should win their electorate and it will be tight.  Mangere deserves two MPs.  Epsom has thought the ACT gerrymander had two MPs for the past 15 years.  Mangere deserves to be treated the same even if more legitimate and democratic methods are used.

For the Greens at number 11 on their list Steve Abel is tantalisingly close.  His history with Greenpeace and fighting climate change is formidable.  His lifetime of activism and his deep understanding of the issues would be invaluable for the next Government. This Parliament needs Steve to be there.

This is the Covid election.  While we bask in our current community spread free status in Europe a further surge is under way.  In America the White House has more community spread cases than Aotearoa does.

There has been much heated opposition and media based attacks on the Government for how bad its Covid response has been.  Right now these attacks appear to be horrendously overheated.  Anyone who talks about New Zealand failures need their heads read.

And this is also the climate change election.  Decisions need to be made now to ensure that this country has a chance of meeting its goal of carbon neutrality by 2050.  Prevarication is no longer an option.

My preference is a Labour Green coalition.  Let there be a debate of ideas about what the Government should be doing.  Our grandkids will be depending what decisions are made.

So make sure you vote.  Make sure your whanau votes.  Vote for their future.

And as you vote just think.  Who do you want to be your Prime Minister?  Jacinda or Judith?

65 comments on “Jacinda or Judith? ”

  1. Sacha 1

    I would prefer that National had another Taliban Right MP than an urban liberal MP elected to its caucus.

    Yeah nah. I'd like them to be able to rebuild in a way that does not threaten the consistent trajectory we all must support over the next decade or two. Bad enough having all the furtive fundamentalists in there already without adding any.

    • mickysavage 1.1

      I made the comment because if National loses its urban liberal element the chances of it ever being in Government again will fade.

      • WeTheBleeple 1.1.1

        Maybe. There's a lot of very nasty self-interested people in this country. They'll take a sound bite over facts gladly, and they remind me very much of GOP whose only aim left is to 'own the libs'.

        Today's social media is rife with idiots calling the left terrorists, clueless, conniving, sly, and of course with agendas to take their cars, guns, freedom…

        Trolls. In America they number almost 200 million. Desperately stupid and desperately desperate. And the locals echo them.

        I submit that, by the next election, the right will have a Cambridge Analytica type PR machine well and truly embedded in the national psyche. It will take all we got just to deflect the BS.

        Did we stop the US interfering in the reeferendum? No, we did nothing.

      • Enough is Enough 1.1.2

        "…the chances of it ever being in Government again will fade."

        The right wing vote is likely to come in at about 40%. It won't take too many mis-steps from the government over the next three years for them to claw 5 – 6% back, and all off a sudden they can govern again.

        Anyone who thinks there is any chance that the right won't govern again is either a fool, or has no knowledge of history.

        • Uncle Scrim 1.1.2.1

          Yes and the right's path to future victory probably lies in finding a palatable Key-type leader who isn't unlikeable like Bridges and won't scare the centre like Collins or Brash, and also they will have to commit to retain key Labour initiatives (as Key did with Kiwibank, Kiwisaver, Cullen Fund), while obviously needing to throw a few bones to potential partners like Act. This has been National’s path to power and approach ever since Sid Holland basically kept Labour's welfare state in 1949-57 (with the exception of Ruthenasia-period Nats).

          The key thing is for a current Labour-Greens government to put actual achievements in place that prove popular and therefore durable – initiatives that no future campaigning National leader would risk axing.

        • Tricledrown 1.1.2.2

          EiE provided National and ACT don't make any misteps given Nationals record that would be wishful thinking.

          • Enough is Enough 1.1.2.2.1

            I voted Green (as I always have) so I don't think it is wishful thinking.

            If you think only one party has a record of misteps, may I introduce to you Phil Goff, David Shearer, David Cunliffe and Andrew Little, and the factional wars that raged in Labour during each of their leadership failures. Remember the leaking from the ABC club.

            Parties are united for so long as they lead in the polls.

            • Patricia Bremner 1.1.2.2.1.1

              You are not correct in putting Andrew Little in that grouping, he was selected through a leadership vote, and gave up his position to his more able Deputy, he also nominated Jacinda.

        • Wensleydale 1.1.2.3

          "It is the doom of men that they forget." — Merlin, Excalibur

          National will be back. They always come back. Like herpes. People vote for all sorts of reasons, some more or less idiotic than others, and one of them is boredom with the status quo. "It's time for a change." Is it? Is it, really? I mean, if it's not broken, don't fix it, right? But nooooo… let's bin a functioning government working on positive change because "They've had their turn!" and "I'm sick of seeing her face in the papers and on the news!" Also, tax cut lolly-scrambles and fear-mongering work. They don't work all the time, and they don't work on all the people, but the temptation is ever present. Blaming 'others' for all the ills of society or your own personal misfortune is always a vote-winner. "Smash the gangs! Sanction those lazy bludgers getting fat off your hard-earned tax dollars! What about Mum and Dad investors?!" And this, sooner or later, is Labour's fate. These things always run in cycles.

          National will be back. They're 'born to rule' and will be all things to all people, just so long as they get their grubby talons on the levers of power once more. And they'll be just as fucking corrosive, divisive, disingenuous and vindictive as they've always been. It's who they are. Labour needs to do as much good as is possible in the steadily shrinking window of opportunity they're given.

        • woodart 1.1.2.4

          totally agree EiE. there are only two main parties, so one or other will be the gov. the nats will get back into gov at some stage, so you and sacha are correct in your outlook.

      • Sacha 1.1.3

        I can picture the current Nats fracturing into liberal and fundamentalist parties – which under MMP might attract enough support to form a workable coalition. Their angry element will not be going away in a fast-changing world, no matter who is in charge.

        • roblogic 1.1.3.1

          National's moderate social conservatives are "fundamentalists" as much as Grant Robertson is a socialist revolutionary

          Labour Either party would be stupid to attack people split on the basis of religion

          (edited)

  2. gsays 3

    While Jacinda or Judith should be a hands down misere, there is also their playmates to consider.

    Jacinda brings James and Marama for the play date. Conciliation and relationship building.

    Judith wants to bring David and Gerry. Gun rights and a bullying tone.

  3. Dennis Frank 4

    My preference is a Labour Green coalition.

    Same here. And I appreciate your description of Steve Abel & his relevance. Would be good if leftists who aren't tribally identified with Labour keep boosting the Greens so they come in at 9% or more.

    As for how the undecided will go, there's been no sign of any late-emerging nudge or trigger – and the various ploys tried by the Nat leader are remarkable in their consistent apparent failure. As with some other commentators, I'm half expecting the legendary late run by Winston to get NZF leaping the hurdle. That would only take 2% out of that 14/15% undecided – easily achieved, one would think!

    If that happens, and they survive with the Greens, Jacinda has an interesting choice. Continue the troika, like a hybrid inching forward with handbrake on, or go red/green, cleanly energised. The latter is the best option!

    • swordfish 4.1

      Dennis

      As with some other commentators, I'm half expecting the legendary late run by Winston to get NZF leaping the hurdle.

      Odds are still fairly heavily against … but probably around a 20% chance they'll just manage to scrape the 5% threshold.

      If the margin between their final Colmar Brunton rating & the election result were the same in 2020 as in 2017 … then NZF would finish on … wait for it ! … precisely 5% of the Party-Vote this Election.

      For various reasons, I think they're more like to be around 4%, possibly a smidgen under … but there's a non-trivial (if still rather narrow) chance of making 5% or a whisker more.

      I'd say:

      Definitely (in broad terms) 2.5 – 5.5

      Probably (in specific terms) 3.5 – 4.5

    • Hanswurst 4.2

      If that happens, and they survive with the Greens, Jacinda has an interesting choice. Continue the troika, like a hybrid inching forward with handbrake on, or go red/green, cleanly energised. The latter is the best option!

      That, of course, is assuming that NZ First itself wants to continue in government. Its experiences in government so far, even more than those of most minor parties, have been ruinous to its vote share. Peters & co. may calculate that, especially in a situation where they are not necessesary to the government's majority, they would be better off trying to build up their support in opposition, using the flexibility to say what they want without having to account for themselves in government.

  4. PsyclingLeft.Always 5

    "Sometimes we are at the edge of crying," said Lenka Krejcova, a head nurse at Slany hospital near Prague, as builders hurried to turn a general ward into a Covid-19 department.

    Poland is ramping up training for nurses and considering creating military field hospitals, Moscow is to move many students to online learning, and Northern Ireland is closing schools for two weeks and restaurants for four.

    "I don't have any good information. We are on the brink of disaster," said immunologist Pawel Grzesiowski in Poland, which reported a record 6,526 infections and 116 deaths on Wednesday.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/428374/on-brink-of-disaster-europe-faces-coronavirus-surge

    I'm proud to be of the NZ Left…and absolutely Jacinda and our Team getting us through

    • Pierre 5.1

      I'm in Britain, where we're stumbling into either a second spike or a second lockdown. Every time I check up on New Zealand it makes me envious to see how well things are managed.

      I get there are restrictions on election-day campaigning, so without naming it directly – up the party of the working people!

  5. Robert Guyton 6

    Chris Trotter cuts to the chase:

    “Shall I tell you the real reason to legalise cannabis? Because all the stuff I’ve told you, while true, isn’t enough. You should legalise cannabis because you’d like it. No, actually, you’d love it! Cannabis makes food taste better. It turns music into magic. It suppresses pain and nausea naturally. And, it transforms sex into a holy sensory sacrament. So, go on, what are you waiting for? Just say YES!”

    http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/2020/10/fitz-on-cannabis.html

  6. PsyclingLeft.Always 7

    Chris Trotter drones…on

  7. Weasel 8

    Polls consistently show the Nats are unlikely to get much more that 30% but Judith Collins says she won't step down despite her previous statement saying that any Nat leader who can't get the Nats 0ver 35% should quit. Her excuse? She said she made the statement when National was on 44% "and never, ever in my wildest dreams did I imagine I would have to take over the leadership in the circumstances that I did." https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2018768604/election-2020-judith-collins-on-lead-up-to-election-day
    Actually, let's hope she stays on. She ran an inept, clumsy and cringe-making campaign. Which National Party supporting isn't totally over phases like: "I'll tell you what…" Her campaign was directionless and she divided her own support.
    As I former reporter, one thing I learned in assessing leaders' ability to connect with the people is their ability to think on their feet to instantly and instinctually respond to a left field question with the appropriate answer. People like David Lange, John Key, Winston Peters and Jacinda Ardern have it and others like David Shearer, David Cunliffe, Don Brash and Judith Collins don't. It is something that can't be learned. So let's hope she clings on into the next election.

    • mango 8.1

      I see your argument but I would be happy if I never saw her again.

      • AB 8.1.1

        Successful Nat leaders hide the intrinsic malevolence of their party's ideology – Key could, Collins can't. No matter how hard she tries, it finds cracks in the facade and seeps to the surface, suppurating in the spring sunlight.

        • Valerie Coulson 8.1.1.1

          National have developed into a ugly party for the past 20 years. It's a shame because I know and feel there are many good & kind Nat voters out there who care for NZ and it’s people. They simply must get rid of this poison, Judith Collins included who have forgotten their aim should be to improve the lives of all NZ. Power for powers sake is just so wrong. There are good honest people out there

        • woodart 8.1.1.2

          what a charming mental picture AB.

    • Incognito 8.2

      Strike me down with a feather; JC is not going to step down after Saturday. If indeed she stays on then she’ll hamper the necessary rebuilding of National. In any case, it is not up to JC to decide. When the Party does its post-mortem analysis next week it needs to have a hard look at the leadership and the campaign as a whole. It appears that in the last couple of weeks National’s campaign was really JC’s campaign with no other MPs in sight. Nicola Willis would be my pick for next Leader of the National Party and as Leader of the Opposition. But nobody pays any attention to what I write here so it ain’t gonna happen 😉

    • observer 8.3

      Come on, this is just standard practice.

      Leaders who are about to lose say they won't quit. Then they quit – some jump, some are pushed. The timing varies (on election night, or a few weeks/months of caretaker leadership until the party is ready to pick a replacement). Collins will probably be given the chance to jump before she's pushed, because the caucus will not want a Dolchstosslegende to annoy the fan club base. But she'll go, regardless.

      In the modern era, every Nat/Lab losing leader departs. The last one who didn't was Clark 1996.

      • Sacha 8.3.1

        Collins is toast and she knows it. Caucus will not feel they owe her any face-saving favours.

        • observer 8.3.1.1

          Maybe not for her sake, but for their own, looking ahead. She gets a month before caucus meets. They can't install a new leader immediately, they will need a caretaker until (at least) they know who has survived, with the final result.

          Clark could step down immediately because Goff was anointed, no leadership contest. Hard to see that unanimity in National, post-election.

          • Sacha 8.3.1.1.1

            Jockeying already started. They aren't going to wait around for a month.

            • observer 8.3.1.1.1.1

              Sure, but wait around for what? A new caretaker, or a 2023 leader?

              If (as you say and I agree) it's too soon for Luxon, they have to be sure they pick the right one, otherwise it's just more of the same, with another leadership change later. So a bunch of new MPs (safe seats) will be picking a PM-in-waiting who they may not have even met.

              • Uncle Scrim

                If and when Collins goes then Ardern will have seen off 4 National leaders in 3 or so years. The same number as Key managed to inflict on Labour in 8 years, 2008-16 (Clark, Goff, Shearer, Cunliffe).

      • NZJester 8.3.2

        There will not be much decussion I think, they have already picked her replacement. The only reason he is not in that spot instead of judith is he must first actaully become an MP. Once that herdle is out of the way I see a quick shift from the faction waiting in he wings rolling her faster than you can say Lux…….

        • observer 8.3.2.1

          He won't be an MP until Nov 13, and even then the first order of business is to debate the incoming government's programme.

          There is no way Luxon will be leading the party in Parliament when he doesn't even know how the place works. It would be a farce ("point of order … no, hang on, is it my turn? … Mr Speaker, do I sit down now, what's happening?").

          Point is: if they want Luxon, they keep Collins.

          • woodart 8.3.2.1.1

            yes luxo will have to be given a locker and shown where the little boys room is. much to learn before being made head prefect.

    • Tricledrown 8.4

      National don't like losers as leaders never have never will JC is toxic and will thrown to the Dirty politics wolf pack.

      No chance of unity more leaks coming National Party politicians are the left overs from the business world who don't make the cut so are happy to be the business world's fanboys for a much smaller income.

      Only Christopher Luxton is their great white hope/Dope a Christian fundy who will struggle with a divided downsized caucus.

    • Sacha 8.5

      If Key had that ability, why did he so often seem to wait for polling or focus groups before taking a position?

  8. mosa 9

    " For the Greens at number 11 on their list Steve Abel is tantalisingly close. His history with Greenpeace and fighting climate change is formidable. His lifetime of activism and his deep understanding of the issues would be invaluable for the next Government. This Parliament needs Steve to be there "

    Then he should have had a higher list position. it will be a major loss if he just misses out.

    Some real attention must be given to those on the higher spots. Have they performed well enough for another three year placement ?

  9. Muttonbird 10

    1.5 million is approximately 60% of total votes in 2017.

    I noticed yesterday Hoskings had Darth Ju on his show in studio. She must have decided her two hour phone interview last week was a disaster and decided to request another go at it.

  10. R.P Mcmurphy 12

    no contest.

    nationals would lead us into a maze of economic and ideological nonsense with disastrous consequences

  11. ianmac 13

    Just after 7pm last night I had a call from Jacinda. Scam I thought. Then she said, "Don't hang up! I have a short message for you." Then went on to encourage me to vote. (I had voted 2 days ago.)

    It was a short simple recorded message and very neatly done. Did others get it?

    • mary_a 13.1

      @ ianmac (13) … I received a similar message from the Greens last night. Haven't heard from Labour yet. Tonight maybe. I'm on both parties mailing lists, also donating to them when I can. I have already voted … Labour electorate candidate/Green party.

      I guess the parties are doing one final push hoping to encourage the late voters.

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