Jackal: A coalition with Winston Peters

Written By: - Date published: 3:54 pm, September 14th, 2014 - 79 comments
Categories: election 2014, john banks, john key, national, nz first, winston peters - Tags: ,

The Jackal-squareReposted from The Jackal

I’m not sure how to break the news to all those desperate right wingers out there wanting the NZ First party to form a coalition government with National, but, despite the mainstream medias misleading coverage, it doesn’t look like a realistic scenario at all.

NZ First leader Winston Peters and Green party co-leader Russel Norman.

It appears that on current polling, and without Winston Peters’ help, National’s dreams for a third term in power look set to be dashed against the rocks of public opinion.

Never say never though so let’s go back in time a bit and revise some history showing why it’s highly unlikely Peters will get into bed with the political contortion artist, John Key:

On January 22, One News reported:

Winston Peters not grabbing John Key’s olive branch

Asked if he could hold a ministeral warrant alongside Mr Dunne, Mr Peters said: “This comes down to the country’s leadership. And if a leader has that sort of unprincipled position it would be almost untenable to be able to deal with a government.”

Not working with Peter Dunne appears to be a bottom line for Winston.

“This is no time to start jacking up the election results like some tin pot military dictatorship where the general election results always favour the generals.”

Peters calls Key’s administration a “tin pot military dictatorship” for trying to jack up the election. Nice! He was clearly still pissed off about the smear campaign that the right wing had been running against him, a smear campaign likely orchestrated directly by the National party itself.

Of course Peters was eventually cleared of any wrongdoing, but by then the damage was done. What I’m trying to say is that the National party and their attack bloggers Dirty Politics won’t have been forgotten by Winston Peters.

However, what about John Key’s thoughts on Winston Peters? Is there any room for the corrupt PM to wriggle his way back into power?

On February 2011, the NZ Herald reported:

PM rejects post-election coalition with Peters

Mr Key said although it could cost National the election, he would not work with Mr Peters. It was up to voters to decide who they wanted in government and he wanted his position to be clear.

“If Winston Peters holds the balance of power it will be a Phil Goff-led Labour government.”

Around the same time Key also said:

“I want to lead an aspirational Government, I don’t believe a Winston Peters Government does that.”

“I’m about tomorrow – not yesterday.”

I guess that was all about getting voters to not support NZ First in the hope they would instead support National, so obviously the wily old fox was a bit pissed off about that as well. He was however rather diplomatic on that occasion concerning John Keys’ insults:

“New Zealanders don’t take kindly to being told what they’ve got to do, particularly when they’re the masters come election day.”

Voters especially didn’t take kindly to John Key and John Banks talking about NZ First supporters dying off. Here’s a little excerpt from the teapot tapes, which clearly display exactly what Key really thinks about older people:

Yeah, yeah, yeah, that’s, but no, no, not a show. He, look, he’s at 2.5 I think on the TV3 poll, we have him about 2.5, 3. Look, he polled 4 last time, he’ll poll 3 this time, a lot of his constituents have all died. He won’t poll, I don’t think he’ll poll much above 3 this time.

John Key was amused that NZ First supporters were dying. This clearly shows he has no principles, which, despite his previous criticism, is why the PM is now giving the glad eye to Winston Peters.

Personally I don’t think Peters will have a bar of it. Not just because those who continue to support NZ First because of the teapot tape scandal would look elsewhere, but because of his other bottom lines.

On September 10, Tim Watkin over at Pundit reported:

Winston Peters: His six bottom lines

But let’s not pretend Peters has only just started positioning himself. I’ve been keeping a running tally of Peters’ “bottom lines” this year, and they are:

New Zealand First won’t work in a coalition with a “race-based party”.

New Zealand First will block the sale of Lochinver Station (“we would not allow this deal”), demands a register of land sales to non-New Zealanders and further, “we will not go into any arrangement with any party that thinks they can go on doing this [foreign land sales]. That’s it.”

New Zealand First could not offer even confidence and supply to a party that didn’t agree to a royal commission into the Dirty Politics allegations.

New Zealand First insists on a state asset buy-back programme that begins now, not in years to come. More specifically, he has a bottom line that the power companies part-sold last year must be bought back. “If either side prefers to sell out New Zealand’s long-term heritage, then they can line up and find their own support”.

New Zealand First wants a public KiwiSaver fund (It’s calling it KiwiFund). Peters said it’s “most definitely” a bottom line.

New Zealand First says generally immigration must come down, and specifically that new migrants must move into the regions for up to five years. That’s also a bottom line, Peters has said.

Clearly the National party isn’t going to agree to at least half of those conditions and Winston is unlikely to compromise, which would rule out any type of coalition deal with NZ First.

In my opinion, Winston Peters has a lot to lose if he makes a deal with Key and everything to gain if he makes a deal with Cunnliffe. The political divide between NZ First and Labour is a lot less pronounced than with National. Also, with compromises to policy likely to be acceptable to their supporters, a coalition between NZ First and Labour looks like a workable solution.

A Labour led government with NZ First on the right and the Green party on the left would be a very stable and moderate administration dedicated to all the things that New Zealanders believe in. Far from being an uncontrollable multi-headed hydra, Labour and their coalition partners would bring years of experience and newfound enthusiasm to the table.

The only real question is who’s going to be Deputy Prime Minister?

 

lprent: The results of a series of Horizon online polls would also appear to make it a party losing proposition to support National.

7th August 2014

A new HorizonPoll finds 58.8% of those intending to give their party vote to New Zealand First would prefer Labour to lead a coalition government if one is needed after the election.

41.2% would prefer a National-led coalition.

 2nd September 2014 – after Dirty Politics was released

67% of those who voted for New Zealand First at the 2011 general election would prefer Labour to lead a coalition government if one is needed after September 20’s general election.

The majority preference for a change of Government among the party’s voters underscores the “difficult” decision making party leader Winston Peters says he will face.

The sample sizes for NZ First voters are pretty small. But the margins are pretty significiant.

When I went to the NZ First conference in mid-July as ‘media’, I was struck by the distaste that many delegates had for John Key and National both on the remit floor and privately. They actually reminded me in many ways of the conservative delegates from a Labour conference.

I could see why they didn’t have significiant issues working with Helen Clark, or for that matter with Jim Bolger. However in my opinion, they would be like sulphuric acid and salt with John Key, Jenny Shipley or for that matter with Bill English. Reactive and dangerous.

Not to mention the factor that The Jackal didn’t mention. The smearing of Winston Peters and NZ First back in 2008 on pretty spurious corruption charges using National’s sockpuppets – Act, David Farrar, and Cameron Slater. They must have been shocked when Winston Peters and NZ First returned in 2011.

79 comments on “Jackal: A coalition with Winston Peters ”

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  1. b waghorn 1
    14 September 2014 at 4:21 pm

    Might be a case for three deputy’s or something like that the greens leaders were talking vice presidents this morning. Could be a natural progression for MMP governments.

    • lprent 1.1
      14 September 2014 at 4:29 pm

      Don’t know why anyone would want to be a deputy when they could be a minister. The only real power of a deputy is to be a placeholder when the PM is out of contact or offshore. They aren’t in the succession to becoming PM.

  2. b waghorn 2
    14 September 2014 at 4:41 pm

    So was the greens talk of vice presidents just waffle our were the aiming at something else.

  3. weka 3
    14 September 2014 at 4:46 pm

    “Personally I don’t think Peters will have a bar of it.”

    And there’s the rub. We can all have our theories about what Peters will do (and Jackal’s is not too shabby), but in the end, there’s nothing to rely on. A vote for Peters is not a vote for a change in govt, it’s a vote for letting Peters decide the outcome of the election. If you want to change the govt, vote left (L, GP, IMP).

    • Draco T Bastard 3.1
      14 September 2014 at 7:06 pm

      +1

    • Local Kiwi 3.2
      14 September 2014 at 7:47 pm

      Weka,

      Don’t make the fatal error of miscalculation of the importance of needing such a senior politician on our side as Winston.

      He is the most senior skilful politician to save the Parliamentary system from the endemic corruption and dirty op’s network in the parliamentary level.

      He will be most important in ridding all the vestiges of NatZ moles hidden in every corner make no mistake here.

      Winston will smell out every corner like no others can, so choose your side carefully and he is one you need on your side, as there will be a lot of sorting to do when taking over rest assured.

      • weka 3.2.1
        14 September 2014 at 8:18 pm

        “Don’t make the fatal error of miscalculation of the importance of needing such a senior politician on our side as Winston.”

        You miss my point. I actually think NZ would be much better off with Peters out of politics altogether, but if I were to agree with you on his importance in govt, then yes he should be on the left’s side. But the point is he’s not. He’s sitting on the fence until after the election and then he will get to choose the govt.

        It’s bullshit, not least because he makes a big hooha about waiting to see what the people want, but has already said he will disenfranchise some of those people (the IMP and Mp). My point was that voting for him doesn’t vote for a change in govt. He might support a change, but there are no guarantees, and that’s not good enough IMO.

        I don’t have a problem with NZF being part of the next left wing govt. I do have a problem with him hedging his bets.

        • Clemgeopin 3.2.1.1
          14 September 2014 at 11:44 pm

          He has said he will first talk to the party that most voters have selected and then go with the side that helps push many of his party policies. That is a fair position to take, because as a party, he is concerned about his own party policies not those of other parties.

          • weka 3.2.1.1.1
            15 September 2014 at 9:33 am

            the policy one is completely fair, but he should be able to give an indication before the election. The largest party one is bullshit, unless he will count L/GP together. MMP is supposed to increase representation.

      • Mike 3.2.2
        14 September 2014 at 10:32 pm

        Could not agree more. Key is toxic and with proposed Royal Commission findings based on 2011 TV 1 press conference he should be sent to Coventry. Given Keys likely demise any chance of a grand coalition interim government in meantime run by Winnie? Then its all about policy really and there is hardly any from national that is relevant and Labour have copied NZ First policies anyway. Could be neat to bring together and in the national interest.
        For some confirmation of the work NZ First is doing read the Legasea fishing report released today. NZ Scored 94 out of 120 while the government scored 20 out of 120. National is out of touch and now that their rock star is imploding what is left are completely off the pace.

    • Hanswurst 3.3
      14 September 2014 at 7:52 pm

      Absolutely. He campaigned at least as strongly on changing the National government in 1996, and look what happened then. I agree he could work with Labour, but I would only be comfortable that it is in any way likely if the numbers didn’t stack up for NZ First + National. That’s far from a given unless people vote in large numbers for Labour + Greens — so don’t vote NZ First. Vote Green or Labour.

      • cogito 3.3.1
        14 September 2014 at 8:19 pm

        Right now, Labour really needs the votes. Cunliffe has come a long way, has debated well and deserves the support.

        I’m a big fan of Winston, but right now Cunliffe is the one who needs the votes more.

        The only other alternative for me is Internet Mana. Kiwis owe Kim a massive debt of gratitude for exposing Key…. and it would be good to see Laila in Parliament again.

        • Hanswurst 3.3.1.1
          14 September 2014 at 8:25 pm

          I also have a lot of time for both Harre and Harawira (I seriously considered voting Mana in 2011). As regards Kim Dotcom, I also agree that he deserves gratitude for putting pressure on Key. However, while I might advocate sending him flowers or a buzzy bee or something, I don’t think anybody owes him their vote. If you vote for Mana/Internet, do it because of their policies, not because of a loveable rogue.

        • Sans Cle 3.3.1.2
          14 September 2014 at 8:59 pm

          +++ on all your comments.
          Hager fighting for integrity and transparency domestically, Greenwald and Dotcom for integrity and transparency globally.
          I seem to remember that the general public were outraged by the raids on KDC’s house at the time…..our police being “henchmen” for the US. How times quickly changed, by twists of smears, all of a sudden KDC vilified within NZ!

    • Clemgeopin 3.4
      14 September 2014 at 11:38 pm

      Best option is for all National party inclined soft voters to vote for NZF to keep Key and National honest in case he decides to go with National. A no brainer!

    • Sebastian 3.5
      15 September 2014 at 2:36 am

      I imagined that before I really looked into it. But at this point I really don’t believe for a moment now that Mr Peters will betray the country on this. He has said there must be a wider inquiry into Nicky Hager’s book and he has said “why would the Prime Minister say no to that? Mr Key has said he is completely innocent of any wrong doing, so why would he not want an inquiry to exonerate himself? He’s already agreed by saying he’s innocent.” Then the media go to Key and he says “no I don’t agree the inquiry won’t be widened. It will be an inquiry focusing only on Judith Collins”. But to those who vote for Winston who still have any faith in Mr Key not being a corrupt Prime Minister, Winston has proven he is being 100% fair to Mr Key, he’s giving him a chance to exonerate himself by insisting on a wider inquiry.

  4. b waghorn 4
    14 September 2014 at 4:55 pm

    @weka I fully agree with that but he will be there in the mix I’m just trying to learn how it could work if you’ve got 3 parties that aren’t that far apart. Because that is the only way we will see key Collins and the rest of them gone.

    • weka 4.1
      14 September 2014 at 6:18 pm

      L/GP/NZF in coalition with confidence and supply support from the IMP. Keep an eye on the Māori seats, and Epsom and Ōhariu. If we get really lucky National will win Epsom, and anyone but Dunne will win Ōhariu.

      That’s the numbers game. Coalition building is another matter.

      • Colonial Viper 4.1.1
        14 September 2014 at 9:36 pm

        Once the numbers can stack up, all else is possible; the desire for Ministerial Warrants is the true certainty at that point.

  5. Kat 5
    14 September 2014 at 5:21 pm

    IF! ……. the possibility of a change of govt on the 20th September is to occur and that govt includes Labour + Greens + NZ1st then Labour needs to get to 30% minimum.

    The current poll of polls would have to be out by a minimum of 4.6%.

    Somewhere somehow some more people are just going to have to party vote Labour or it won’t happen. Sorry to spoil anyone’s hopes here.

    • Lanthanide 5.1
      14 September 2014 at 5:56 pm

      “IF! ……. the possibility of a change of govt on the 20th September is to occur and that govt includes Labour + Greens + NZ1st then Labour needs to get to 30% minimum.

      No it doesn’t. It’s perfectly possible for a left-wing government to be formed if Labour gets just 25% of the vote, as long as the other left parties make up the numbers.

      • weka 5.1.1
        14 September 2014 at 6:14 pm

        +1. Except if Labour are too low Peters may choose to not work with them.

        Kat, the polls don’t count the undecideds and non-responders.

        • Lanthanide 5.1.1.1
          14 September 2014 at 9:04 pm

          Yes, that’s probably the biggest threat. I’d say 23% or less would definitely be danger territory for that outcome, assuming the seats still added up such a result for Labour would likely require leaning on the Greens or IMP too heavily for Winston’s liking.

      • Kat 5.1.2
        14 September 2014 at 6:20 pm

        At 25% Labour has no real chance of forming a new govt.

        • lprent 5.1.2.1
          14 September 2014 at 6:41 pm

          Why? It depends on what the bloc has a vote rather than what one party has.

          In this case the real problem is that National at 45% and below has no coalition partners with which to form a coalition. Assume they get the 2 or even 3 seats from their current partners (and that will be pushing it) and that the conservatives fail to hit the threshold – which seems likely.

          I can’t see any way that national can cobble together a coalition that gets the required 61-62 seats required without NZF.

          • Kat 5.1.2.1.1
            14 September 2014 at 8:22 pm

            David is talking Labour + Greens + Nz1st being the possible new govt that he envisages leading. That combination is why Labour needs 30% to have a real chance of successfully putting that particular troika together. I do realise that it is technically possible with Labour at a knife edge 25%, but on current poll of polls it would involve another party, even two.

            The other scenario is that the polls are all bunk, the Conservatives definitely don’t make it or that the Nat vote collapses on the day.

            • lprent 5.1.2.1.1.1
              14 September 2014 at 9:01 pm

              You are asserting rather than explaining. Even when challenged on it.

              A government is defined by having the seats in parliament to pass confidence and supply legislation. There are cases in various legislatures where the leading party of a government wasn’t even the largest in the governing coalition.

              Your silly assertion indicates that you have no freaking idea why? Is it someone else’s line you are repeating?

              Are you a mindless astroturfing troll? Or are you a thinking human?

              You answer should consist of the logic behind your assertion.

              • Kat …
                15 September 2014 at 9:44 am

                The logic behind my assertion that at 25% Labour has no real chance of forming a new govt that comprises solely Labour + Greens + NZ1st is based on a degree of probability given current poll of polls and on the topic of “A coalition with Winston Peters”.

                What vote the left bloc may achieve in total is a different outcome to the point I was making. The maths there are fairly obvious and I did mention that.

                I would add that my assertive observations may be considered generalisations if you wish but hardly mindless or unthinking.

            • Lanthanide 5.1.2.1.1.2
              14 September 2014 at 9:06 pm

              “I do realise that it is technically possible with Labour at a knife edge 25%, but on current poll of polls it would involve another party, even two.”

              Yes, with Labour stuck squarely on 25% and NZFirst and Greens at around 7% and 14%, that comes to 46% and other parties very likely would be required to get the requisite seats. Cunliffe has already ruled out giving ministerial posts to IMP, Dunne and MP, but that doesn’t mean those parties can’t give votes (or abstain) on confidence and supply.

        • Hanswurst 5.1.2.2
          14 September 2014 at 7:55 pm

          Don’t forget that there will be at least a significant number of people who vote Green because they think a Labour-led government will be a good thing and they have high confidence in Cunliffe as prime minister. As such, a high Green vote should be seen as positive a vote for a more left-wing Labour-led government, rather than as a failure of Labour to appeal to the electorate.

          National campaign on their leadership team and the ability to make pragmatic decisions in government. Because they have no electoral stake in promoting their principles, they are happy to incorporate conservatives, neo-liberals and opportunists under one generic, anti-progressive roof. Whereas Labour, Green, Mana etc. are representatives of clear principles and ideas, National is basically like one great big factional salad. Because of that, they take in a monolithic conservative vote, with a gaggle of individual fools and nincompoops to the right.

    • Sebastian 5.2
      15 September 2014 at 2:45 am

      Not really because IMP can support them on confidence and supply. That is what Cunliffe is counting on. And IMP will support them. It’s a question of how well IMP do as well as the % on the other three parties.

  6. b waghorn 6
    14 September 2014 at 6:05 pm

    Kat 2% is all the shift that’s needed kiwis are decent people(mostly) and when they get in the election box enough will do the right thing and ditch key.

    • Kat 6.1
      14 September 2014 at 6:22 pm

      If Labour were on 28% I would agree another 2% will do it.

      • JRT 6.1.1
        14 September 2014 at 7:55 pm

        Labour on 28%, Greens on 13%, NZFirst on 8%, IMP on 2.5% is not an unrealistic result of the election and that would take the left + NZ First over 50%. It is all still in play, and National are not looking friendly towards Winston so he may get more of what he wants from the left. He has said it is all about getting as many of NZFirst policies enacted as he can, and he and Labour have a lot in common. I’m still hopeful for a good outcome.

        • Sebastian 6.1.1.1
          15 September 2014 at 2:46 am

          He’s also said Hager’s book is very serious, that it’s Watergate and that there must be a wider inquiry for the sake of honesty and integrity.

  7. b waghorn 7
    14 September 2014 at 6:55 pm

    Keys talking minority government , he knows the numbers are only going to get worse for nats

    • harry holland 7.1
      14 September 2014 at 10:02 pm

      What’s the constitutional position if the Nats have 45% and ask the GG to let them form a minority govt? even if L/G/NZF/IMP has 51% ? I wouldn’t put it past Key to try. He still has a FPP mentality and would feel entitled to rule as the largest party. I have heard some loose talk, but surely it would be irresponsible of the GG to take the risk that such a minority govt could survive a no conf motion?

      • yeshe 7.1.1
        14 September 2014 at 11:02 pm

        wise to remember who appointed this GG and the position he came from .. wish we could guarantee we can trust him. i sincerely hope we don’t need to find out.

        ( And I back Winston as a more shrewd and cunning politician ndthan Key — as he referred to this today from his meeting in Levin .. TV3 Nation I think it was.)

        • Sebastian 7.1.1.1
          15 September 2014 at 2:58 am

          Yes he’s very clever how he keeps saying “Why wouldn’t the Prime Minister want a full inquiry into Hager’s book that will exonerate him? The Prime Minister has said he’s completely innocent.” And then Key keeps saying “no only Judith Collins to be investigated not me or any of my other staff”

  8. SPC 8
    14 September 2014 at 7:49 pm

    At the weekend the Herald, Herald on Sunday and Dominion all attacked votes for NZ First. Commentators such as Armstrong and Garner said the same.

    The public are being told not to vote for NZ First.

    Not only is it a restraint on a National led government it might even enable a Labour led one and so they stand united opposed to this outcome.

    • JRT 8.1
      14 September 2014 at 8:00 pm

      So sick of the “journalists” at the Herald….

    • Hanswurst 8.2
      14 September 2014 at 8:12 pm

      I can’t see that as a secure ploy. It looks desperate mroe than anything. There is no way of knowing how many NZ First supporters would peel off to Labour and how many to National, or how many would simply not vote. It could work in National’s favour, but it could also work against them.

    • Sebastian 8.3
      15 September 2014 at 2:50 am

      Yes there have been a ton of anti NZfirst, anti Winston articles that just say “oh Winston is (some meaningless insult)

      You know I only looked into it the other day the reason why Mr Peters was ejected from National way back under Jenny Shipley was over asset sales. Shipley was selling off govt shares in Wellington Airport and Peters would not back down on fighting it so she sacked him. I always thought it was shocking they could use him to get into govt then just throw him out.

  9. jackp 9
    14 September 2014 at 8:10 pm

    Being an ex National supporter (do I dare show my face here?) but after two years of Key I realized that Key was a George Bush, a US corporate stooge. That’s when I looked at Winston and found him to be more to my liking. This year will be the first year I will vote labour and second time for NZ first because I can’t stand National. The Jackael is right, I might add too that Winston is 69, he has mellowed out with less ego. I really believe he wants to do better for his country and he is now in the position to do so. Yes, I too think he’ll go with Labour but the media keep saying National because they know it might turn a few voters away from NZ first. I’m sick of the media ragging on NZ first and it shows Winston’s character to not bend for the MSM. Key’s just an arrogant wall street boy with no brains which is why Crosby/Textor is working overtime. To the life of me I don’t see how he can be popular when he treats the average kiwi with so much contempt.

    • Lanthanide 9.1
      14 September 2014 at 9:09 pm

      How are you voting both Labour and NZFirst?

    • blue leopard 9.2
      14 September 2014 at 10:11 pm

      Now there is the type of comment I like to read 🙂

      • Colonial Viper 9.2.1
        14 September 2014 at 10:17 pm

        Lots of good Kiwis who are (ex)-National Party supporters starting to see through the John Key veil. Do we have enough time less than a week to go…

        • blue leopard 9.2.1.1
          14 September 2014 at 10:30 pm

          It is pretty awful how we can’t trust the polls.
          I would have thought they were a lot higher for the left in reality than they are registering in the polls, however I thought that last election…

          I keep having this circular conversation with myself, the above sentence followed by the thought that the polls affected the way people voted.

          Was wondering why Labour or the Greens don’t give us some clue on their internal polling – the way Cunliffe has been talking makes it sound they are about the same as the public polls.

          I would think left and right are even now (given the historical bias of them and re landline etc) and the next few days left will be over taking.

          What do you reckon?

          • weka 9.2.1.1.1
            14 September 2014 at 10:37 pm

            I think National are in trouble. I hadn’t cottoned on to the whole once they drop below 45% thing, but I’ve just put it in the election calculator and it makes sense. Even with ACT/UF/Mp, they’re screwed if they drop. Conservatives above 5% would change that I think.

            “I would think left and right are even now (given the historical bias of them and re landline etc) and the next few days left will be over taking.”

            I think the left will win, but the stakes are so high I can’t let myself believe it.

            • blue leopard 9.2.1.1.1.1
              14 September 2014 at 10:47 pm

              Yes, and it is really difficult separating what one hopes to occur from what one thinks is realistic!

              By the way, I appreciated you replied to the comment in Open Mike a day or so ago (over the Green issue), and apologize for not replying – I got overwhelmed by the conversation and needed to remove myself from it.

          • Sebastian 9.2.1.1.2
            15 September 2014 at 3:02 am

            The polls are all landline polls and a lot of young people no longer bother paying for landlines as they all have cell phones.

          • Francis G 9.2.1.1.3
            15 September 2014 at 2:12 pm

            I’ve heard Labour’s internal polling has them in the high 20s, a fair bit higher than most of the publicly available ones.

            Still, I’d hoped they would have been in at least the low 30s by now.

            • blue leopard 9.2.1.1.3.1
              15 September 2014 at 2:16 pm

              Thanks Francis G,

              I would have thought so. I do wonder why Labour don’t openly share that info with the public. I wish they would, because it is important for people to feel there is a good chance the left can win and knowing the polls are trending lower than reality would be a really good way to do that.

  10. Dakta Green 10
    14 September 2014 at 10:06 pm

    Labour will poll 30% + on Saturday, Greens will go over 15%, Internet/Mana are the sleeper party and will poll 6 to 8%. There is your next Government.

    National will poll the worst result in their history and will share the opposition benches with NZ First. Act will not win Epsom and will disappear. Peter Dunne will lose and United Future will join ACT in the political wilderness. The Maori Party will not win a seat this election and will merge with Mana before the 2017 election. The Conservatives will stay below 5% and disappear.

    You read it here first.

    • Colonial Viper 10.1
      14 September 2014 at 10:22 pm

      I like the theory but 😯

      Upper upper limits 31% LAB, 14.0% GR are my picks. IMP at 4.5% max. But I hope you are right and I am wrong.

      PS I am picking National at between 42.5% to 45%…no way is it going to go down to Bill English levels, sadly.

      No doubt I will be live tweeting angst and elation during the evening 😈

      • weka 10.1.1
        14 September 2014 at 10:32 pm

        I’m trying to decide whether to find a television for the evening, or go bush for the weekend 😉

        • yeshe 10.1.1.1
          14 September 2014 at 11:08 pm

          well, I’d shout you a drink if I could weka !! 🙂

        • Colonial Viper 10.1.1.2
          15 September 2014 at 12:01 am

          a day tramp on Sunday sounds like a perfect compromise haha

          • weka 10.1.1.2.1
            15 September 2014 at 9:58 am

            I have a feeling that if I know the result on Sat night, I’ll want to be celebrating/commiserating on ts on Sunday. Or taking part in the confusion if there is no clear result 😀

    • Mike 10.2
      14 September 2014 at 11:39 pm

      NZ First to achieve plus 10 to 12% and Nats 44% and lower will allow NZ First to go with either left or right factions. Key in a royal commission and a caretaker government while Keys fate is determined, Labour has agreed basically to NZ First policies would it be that simple? I think not. How about a grand coalition with cherry picked ministers and English PM? Greens and Labour represented and NZ First inside or outside but with voting strength to go both ways which allows support for his policies. That gets rid of dirty politics and is policy driven. That would ensure an independent speaker in the house and Peters legacy

    • Sebastian 10.3
      15 September 2014 at 3:10 am

      NZfirst will get something like 9% and they will support Labour.

  11. Mike 11
    14 September 2014 at 10:47 pm

    you better factor in 11 to 12% for NZ First. They are the sleeper here.Many have Peters to be there and want him there in the mess created by the Nats. He will on those numbers be able to go both ways if he want. This is going to be the most exciting election in years. I am hoping that Peters has the balance as he is the best option all round to ensure this nonsense stops

    • Colonial Viper 11.1
      15 September 2014 at 12:03 am

      NZF 6% to 8%…they’ll get 8.0%-9.0% only if the NATs have a crushingly bad night.

      NZ First on 12%…my god do they have enough sane MPs on their list???

      • Sebastian 11.1.1
        15 September 2014 at 2:52 am

        This is the kind of meaningless nonsense the right throw out. Sane MPs? Yes they are lovely people and respond to all emails from the public unlike most parties.

  12. Local Kiwi 12
    14 September 2014 at 11:16 pm

    Bang on Jackp,

    Winston has mellowed and sounds very socialist like statesman now.

    He talks very badly of Key and co, one can never imagine he would go within a country mile of Key any more, they are enemies we see.

    Winston has made it clear at two public meetings, at Napier & Gisborne, we have attended he will not personally want to go with the toxic National Government.

    But he does qualify the fact that is the electorate and his own party that will decide post election final choice of partnerships.

    His preference is to go away from NatZ and their toxic mob.

    • Sebastian 12.1
      15 September 2014 at 2:54 am

      I know Tracey Martin has she said that they would be standing firm on a wider inquiry into Hager’s accusations as essential when it comes to coalition deals.

  13. Mike 13
    15 September 2014 at 7:14 am

    When you see the Herald editorial and John Armstrong’s bleatings berating Peters you know this is down to the wire. Given the toxic dirty politics just having effect I do not see any sackings at the Herald and other main right propogandists after their complicity with the attack bloggers. Here we have Peters calling for a commission to start to sort out this mess and he is the only one with any ideas as to what is required and to move forward. He is 69 years and going flat out, has run a brilliant campaign and this is his time. The Herald and some on that side are in panic. If folk think that dirty politics is not important and John Key was entitled to do what he has done we are stuffed as a country

  14. Jack 14
    15 September 2014 at 7:26 am

    Interesting article by Rodney Hide yesterday also bags Peters.

  15. Scott1 15
    15 September 2014 at 7:38 am

    Would Labour be willing to largely shut out the greens?

    For example form a coalition with NZfirst and ask for supply and confidence from the greens (or otherwise a situation where NZfirst is the major partner). If this is on the cards then all of a sudden labour can offer Peters quite a lot and make him look good to his own supporters.

    If not then National can offer him pretty much anything he wants but Labour has its hands a bit tied.

  16. gnomic 16
    15 September 2014 at 5:30 pm

    I have heard Winston speak at public meetings for older citizens twice in the last 15 months or so. Both times he spoke of National and the Key-Joyce-English triumvirate in extremely scathing terms, effectively saying the National leadership suffers from an honesty deficit. He had nothing to say about Labour whatsoever if I recall correctly. However, and here’s the rub, he continued with his seemingly near-irrational dislike of the Greens. And I think we can safely say he will not be in a government including Hone Harawira.

    But hey, it’s Winston so who the hell knows?

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