John Key 2.0

Written By: mickysavage - Date published: 7:00 am, October 11th, 2019 - 120 comments
Categories: election 2020, elections, john key, national, same old national - Tags: chris luxon, jamie-lee ross

It is happening.

National Party heavyweights are moving to parachute Chris Luxon into the Botany seat.

From Boris Jancic at the Herald:

Former Prime Minister John Key has put his weight behind Christopher Luxon after the ex Air New Zealand chief announced his intention to run for National in Auckland.

But rogue MP Jami-Lee Ross – who currently holds the seat Luxon wants – has thrown down the gauntlet and called his former party “arrogant”.

Luxon’s future with the party has been the subject of much speculation since he announced in June that he would leaving the airline.

He had previously indicated he was interested in a future in politics, and his natural political home would be National.

In a statement on Thursday, Luxon confirmed he would be putting himself forward as the National candidate in the Botany electorate from 2020.

“I have a great affinity for and connection with having grown up in the area attending local primary, intermediate and high schools,” he said.

“I look forward to the robust democratic selection process ahead with the local membership … should I ultimately be selected by the members in Botany as their National Party candidate I will happily talk publicly then.”

Simon Bridges will be concerned. A more public repudiation of his leadership I could not imagine.

And it is also the big middle finger to Judith Collins, Todd Muller and any other current member of National’s caucus with leadership aspirations.

And National MP Paulo Garcia will be disappointed. I heard that he was keen to try to get the nomination. He would have been a better fit into this electorate than he was in New Lynn given his views on recreational fornication.

I presume that National will show its borg like discipline and everyone will fall in line. Including Simon Bridges. And of course Judith Collins …

Update: It seems that Matthew Hooton is not enamoured with the prospect of a Luxon candidacy. In his Herald column today he has said this:

For his part, Luxon is known as a passionate member of the evangelical and proselytising Upper Room church which emerged in Tennessee in the 1930s. He attends their services in Newmarket.

Party rivals, the Labour Party and the media will inevitably raise questions about the Upper Room’s theology and to what extent it would guide Luxon’s policy-making. Is Luxon a conservative in the Bolger, English and Bridges mould? Or will his strong religious beliefs inevitable push him to take a much more radical stance on social issues and seek to reverse the general consensus? Delegates, the wider party and the public will want to know.”

Trouble at mill?

120 comments on “John Key 2.0 ”

Comments are now closed

You_Fool 1

11 October 2019 at 8:04 am

One silver lining for me… He won't stand in Upper Harbour, so after years of having to live with the shame of having Paula as MP, and having her now stand down I thought we would have to put up with having some parachute wannabe
- Dukeofurl 1.1
  
  11 October 2019 at 8:14 am
  
  Upper Harbour will likely 'disappear' in the boundary changes to be announced soon. Its an odd seat straddling both North Shore and West Auckland and without a sitting MP makes it without a strong backer to remain.
  - You_Fool 1.1.1
    
    11 October 2019 at 9:52 am
    
    sad… what electorate will we be in next?
    - Dukeofurl 1.1.1.1
      
      11 October 2019 at 10:51 am
      
      Depends on which side of the harbour you are on.
Dukeofurl 2

11 October 2019 at 8:09 am

Like Northcote , Botany is another parachute seat. The delegates who do the selecting of the candidate, will be like Northcote, mostly selected by regional bosses from the Auckland Nomenklatura.

This is because the electorate membership for a fairly new electorate wont be high enough for all delegates to be locals from the electorate membership – like they would in say Epsom, Tamaki, Pakuranga.

Yukun Zhang may be disappointed that a family member and the New Zealand Chaoshan General Association has 'missed out' , after all they have done for Bridges and his fundraising.
Duncan 3

11 October 2019 at 8:17 am

Icky to Yicky.
Formerly Ross 4

11 October 2019 at 8:23 am

Jami Lee Ross can complain all he wants but there’s not much he can do…
roy cartland 5

11 October 2019 at 8:36 am

"…his natural political home would be National"

Why – is he a deceitful arsehole who would shit on his country and people to get himself what he wants?
- Red Blooded One 5.1
  
  11 October 2019 at 9:00 am
  
  The answer to that question is Yes! His treatment of workers are they are a simple commodity that should be eliminated as quickly as possible.
- Ken 5.2
  
  13 October 2019 at 5:16 pm
  
  He's a Nat, so it goes without saying.
Enough is Enough 6

11 October 2019 at 8:41 am

"And it is also the big middle finger to Judith Collins, Todd Muller and any other current member of National’s caucus with leadership aspirations"??

How so?

Are you suggesting that a party should not fill its nominations with "leaders" if they are happy with their current caucus?

For example if a popular union leader stands in a safe Labour seat next year, is that a middle finger to Jacinda and other swithin the Labour caucus that have leadership aspirations?

Of course not.
- marty mars 6.1
  
  11 October 2019 at 9:30 am
  
  How so?
  
  All those aspirational leaders have been shown that they haven't got the right stuff and now a drop in has been organised. You think that's the same as labour and our Prime Minister eh – sad analysis that and wrong too imo EiE
  - Enough is Enough 6.1.1
    
    11 October 2019 at 11:38 am
    
    Do you think CL is only coming in because National has no one else in the Caucus up to the job?
    
    Or is it more likely that CL is in coming because he has personal ambitions to be the PM?
    - marty mars 6.1.1.1
      
      11 October 2019 at 12:34 pm
      
      Yes I do think they think there is no one up for the job – their best is there now and he is abysmal – there is no comparison with Labour and Jacinda – apple and oranges imo
      - Enough is Enough 6.1.1.1.1
        
        11 October 2019 at 2:54 pm
        
        That doesn't really make any sense, or answer my question so I thinks it best if I don't engage with you.
        
        marty mars 6.1.1.1.1.1
        
        11 October 2019 at 3:23 pm
        
        seemed a simple explanation to me but whatever
        btw I answered your first question in good faith but I really don’t like engaging with overt or covert gnat supporters so all good.
        
        Akldnut 6.1.1.1.1.2
        
        11 October 2019 at 3:37 pm
        
        Gummon EIE, its pretty clear the talent pool in Nats ranks have waned enough over the last 2 years that you could run a campaign with a local landmark standing and it would probably win and go on to be the leader.
        
        Wensleydale …
        
        11 October 2019 at 3:54 pm
        
        The National Party "talent pool" is one of the more polluted waterways in our otherwise fine nation.
        
        patricia bremner …
        
        11 October 2019 at 11:00 pm
        
        Or a pond of nasties.
        
        gsays …
        
        11 October 2019 at 11:19 pm
        
        Tis a shallow pool too.
        
        Ken …
        
        13 October 2019 at 5:19 pm
        
        More like a fetid puddle of piss.
tc 7

11 October 2019 at 8:50 am

JLR could play the cornered injured victim here making this messy for national.

However nats media poodles will have spin about how re-generational/aspirational etc this is along with 'squirrel/dead cat' distraction events.

Yet again the deep pockets will probably see them through this having ace spin merchant shonky on his shoulder also.

Bring popcorn, JLR may just throw some skeletons on the table unless he gets looked after.
- Anne 7.1
  
  11 October 2019 at 10:29 am
  
  JLR may just throw some skeletons on the table unless he gets looked after.
  
  He will. That's as sure as Monday follows Sunday. But if he's got any sense he will hold off until next year.
  
  What amuses me about right-wing parties is their authoritarian hierarchies who choose most of the electorate candidates. The local membership don't have a say and are expected to accept whoever is chosen without a murmur.
  
  They parachute these guys into safe seats who have no knowledge or experience of the 'on the ground' running of a political party. Then they claim to have the voters' interests at heart, but in reality they've never done an honest day's electoral work in their lives and don't care a rat's arse about said voters.
  
  Imo, the big draw-card – apart from being the king-pin – is they want to stride around the world supping with overseas big-wigs and pretending to be one of them – a la John Key.
  - Kay 7.1.1
    
    11 October 2019 at 11:31 am
    
    @Anne, I've lived in a safe Labour seat forever. The only time our electorate MPs give a rats arse about said voters is when they're in Opposition. Or when there's a good photo op to be had. So that particular aspect not exclusive to the Right.
    - Anne 7.1.1.1
      
      11 October 2019 at 12:34 pm
      
      Wrong. You are projecting the behaviour of a few on the majority of Labour electorate MPs who are extremely hardworking and notably considerate members of their communities and electorates. I've seen them in action at close quarters on and off since the early 1970s. I'm picking you have had very little to do with them (at close quarters) and have no idea what you are talking about.
      - Kay 7.1.1.1.1
        
        11 October 2019 at 1:04 pm
        
        Ok, maybe it is just a few, but that's a few too many. They're elected by us, they are meant to REPRESENT us, not just when it suits them, and not subject to whether their party happens to be in power. That's my stance no matter what stripe they are. And I never suggested that it was every MP who behaved like that.
        
        And you can't make assumptions about how much I've had to do with them. Sure as hell enough to know that not all Labour electorate MPs are saints like you're suggesting. Not just my experience either.
        
        Anne 7.1.1.1.1.1
        
        11 October 2019 at 1:27 pm
        
        If you don't like the sort of responses you sometimes receive here then stop casting generalised aspersions at individuals you have concluded you don't like merely because of their societal status.
  - Grantoc 7.1.2
    
    11 October 2019 at 4:47 pm
    
    I think you've got the wrong party Anne.
    
    National's local membership do have a significant say in the selection of their local candidate. They're probably the most influential demographic in the selection process. They can and do ignore National Party head offices choices (David Kirk for example some years ago in the seat of Tamaki I think it was, was unsuccessful after being parachuted in by HO). And the larger the local membership, the greater their influence.
    
    National Party's selection rules protect the rights and powers of the local membership.
    
    There is strong National Party membership in Botany and so,actually, Luxon is not guaranteed selection at all.
    - Anne 7.1.2.1
      
      11 October 2019 at 5:46 pm
      
      I'm sure you're right – in theory Grantoc. And yes, it might occasionally be democratic, but in practice the members generally fall into line and select whoever they have been effectively told to select.
      
      A perfect example of course is the Epsom electorate where the constituents – the majority of whom would be members – were told who to vote for and they all fell into line like a bunch of five year olds starting school.
- Blazer 7.2
  
  11 October 2019 at 10:50 am
  
  He will be 'looked after' for sure.He needs to be,would become virtually unemployable.
JessNZ 8

11 October 2019 at 9:06 am

National Party voters and caucus will be drooling with joy!

1) A fresh white business-as-usual man with no political history compared with

2) All the other Nat contenders and their ugly searchable political history – and single-digit preferred PM ranks.
- Wensleydale 8.1
  
  11 October 2019 at 3:58 pm
  
  Pretty much. It's like placing a fresh steak on top of a plate full of fly-blown offal. "Vote for Chris. He's not an utter bastard… yet."
Tiger Mountain 9

11 October 2019 at 9:37 am

Sirkey represented Finance Capital first and foremost, international and local, every day of his time as an MP in the NZ Parliament. As he did before, and continues to after, at ANZ and Air NZ.

Mr Luxon will do the same. That is the time honoured National way–shovel the loot “upstairs”, while taking provincials, urban aspirationals, self employed, and codger reactionaries along for the ride!

I guess the Luxon announcement is an indicator of where the Nat factions currently are at in their power struggles.
observer 10

11 October 2019 at 10:09 am

Luxon's cheerleaders have either given up on the next election for National – or they're a bit dim. (Possibly both).

He cannot lead the party into the 2020 election. The only way to do that is to force JLR out in time for a by-election, and win it, and then the caucus immediately promotes their newest MP to leader.

That's a classic case of armchair politics, oblivious to the human factor. It would take many months for all of the above to happen, months during which Simon Bridges has to keep repeating "I'm confident in my leadership" and every National MP has to keep repeating "Simon's great, yes he is!". And every ambitious MP from Collins to Muller has to pretend they're totally fine with being cast aside, and nobody says anything to journos about how pissed off they are.

One of the dumbest takes is Nat-fans saying "Labour switched late to Ardern, so we can do it too". But Labour MPs were NOT agitating for Ardern to take over, the media weren't appointing her leader a year before the election. The late switch only worked because the incumbent (Little) was considering his own position. And then stepped down, giving way to a reluctant replacement. Sure, it worked out fine – but an accident is not a plan.

So Luxon now has to put on the fixed grin and say "No ambitions to be leader", while his fan club tell him he should be. National couldn't undermine themselves any better than this.
- tc 10.1
  
  11 October 2019 at 11:16 am
  
  2023. Bridges was always going the distance IMO. A useful idiot, which he's sooo living up to.
  
  They know there's way too much shit about for even the most easily swayed swinging voter to get sucked in so soon after their last period in pillage.
  
  They'll need for the current govt to fix more of their mess before the voters goldfish brain kicks in and another 'Blighted Future' gets their vote for that ever so nice man Mr Luxon.
  - Akldnut 10.1.1
    
    11 October 2019 at 3:46 pm
    
    Goldfish brains lol nailed it
UncookedSelachimorpha 11

11 October 2019 at 10:11 am

The plan will be to gift him a safe seat in 2020 (while the NActs lose the election under Bridges) – then move him to leader and a shot at power in 2023.

Another "Christian" business guy obsessed with success, money and status. Unfortunately the public will likely find him very appealing. He will do wonders for the rich, while not giving a damn about poverty and inequality. John Key 2.0 is exactly right.
- tc 11.1
  
  11 October 2019 at 11:21 am
  
  Haven't their media muppetts done a wonderful job positioning him. This is the game folks, play it or lose at it.
Alan 12

11 October 2019 at 10:19 am

I can smell the fear on your breath….
- observer 12.1
  
  11 October 2019 at 10:26 am
  
  Are you talking to Simon or Judith?
  
  2023 is a long way off.
  - roy cartland 12.1.1
    
    11 October 2019 at 10:45 am
    
    2023 will be the year that the younger, climate-focussed demographic reach the numerical critical mass. Then NAT will have to bite the bullet and go pro-climate as well, or die a deserved death.
    - Obtrectator 12.1.1.1
      
      11 October 2019 at 11:18 am
      
      Wouldn't be too sure about the ability of that "demographic" to change anything. It only takes a few reactionary bastards in each generation to derail any mass movement by getting themselves into positions of power.
      - roy cartland 12.1.1.1.1
        
        11 October 2019 at 11:26 am
        
        Nah I'm not at all sure about it. I just say it as if it's going to happen, hoping that it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. That's what said bastards do, so why not.
- McFlock 12.2
  
  11 October 2019 at 3:50 pm
  
  That would be the curry I had for lunch.
weka 13

11 October 2019 at 10:21 am

The repudiation of St Judes ascent to the throne cannot pass without comment. Not exactly a day of celebration, but still something to be thankful for.
- Andre 13.1
  
  11 October 2019 at 10:28 am
  
  I mourn the absence of Puckish Rogue at such a significant moment.
  - weka 13.1.1
    
    11 October 2019 at 12:52 pm
    
    I'm sure he does too 😉
mosa 14

11 October 2019 at 11:01 am

Well with regrettably a Luxon led government in around twelve months Jacinda can give Neave the full attention she deserves and write her memoirs.
- observer 14.1
  
  11 October 2019 at 11:05 am
  
  Improve your trolling. Or learn how NZ elections work.
  
  The NZ Supreme Court might have something to say about National breaking the law, which is the only way your fantasy can happen.
  - weka 14.1.1
    
    11 October 2019 at 12:55 pm
    
    You might have to explain that. What's the legal block to National winning the next election, with Luxon as leader?
    - Formerly Ross 14.1.1.1
      
      11 October 2019 at 12:59 pm
      
      Luxon is not even an MP so to become PM after the election would be something to behold. Of course he could roll Bridges after the election but that would only happen if National are not in government.
      - observer 14.1.1.1.1
        
        11 October 2019 at 1:09 pm
        
        @FR
        
        Correct. A non-MP can't become PM. Except in a coup, maybe.
        
        The other part of the fantasy is that Ardern will just sit around and wait while National use the waka-jumping law (problematic in many ways, not least National's fierce opposition to the law) and force JLR out, to get a by-election in Botany.
        
        There is zero chance of a by-election before Xmas, so we're talking 2020, at which point the PM will have all the excuse she needs to call an early election, for "stability". And win it comfortably.
        
        McFlock 14.1.1.1.1.1
        
        11 October 2019 at 3:55 pm
        
        Option B is luxon runs in Botany at the general election, gets elected, nats win the election overall, then no-bridges gracefully steps down after leading the party to an unexpected victory and asks Luxon to take his place at head of the nat caucus and for the government.
        
        lolz
        
        observer …
        
        11 October 2019 at 4:03 pm
        
        Heh.
        
        "Do you intend to serve a full term?" is a legit media question to PMs going for a second or third. It would be quite something to hear it asked about the wannabe-PM's first term!
        
        But really, this just shows how absurd the Luxon fantasy is, and how unhelpful it is to National. He should shut up and disappear into the background, but that's obviously not who he is.
      - weka 14.1.1.1.2
        
        11 October 2019 at 1:24 pm
        
        Is there something to stop him being leader before the election? The Greens have done this (Russell Norman became co-leader before he became an MP). I don't know what the National Party rules are.
        
        (Mosa's comment was a nonsense in more ways than one, but I was curious if Luxon not becoming PM was a legal impossibility).
        
        observer 14.1.1.1.2.1
        
        11 October 2019 at 1:45 pm
        
        @weka
        
        You might be right. National could (AFAIK) go into the election with a Botany candidate at the top of the list, instead of an MP.
        
        Obviously the political consequences would kill them ("we've got a great team in caucus, but they're all useless"). But legally … may be OK.
        
        Mind you, the process of making a non-MP leader is fraught with difficulty. The caucus elects the leader, so God (or Mosa) only knows how they do that.
        
        What if Judith stands against him, citing existing party rules?
        
        “The Leader of the Parliamentary Section shall, shortly after receiving the approval of the Board of Directors (the governing body of the Party), become the Leader of the Party.”
- greywarshark 14.2
  
  11 October 2019 at 11:31 am
  
  mosa There's a hole in the middle of your icon, your icon, a hole in the middle of your head – goes with a swing I think. (Think song 'hole in your bucket').
- mosa 14.3
  
  11 October 2019 at 4:28 pm
  
  oops that got the fire started.
  
  typographical error. National led government.
William 15

11 October 2019 at 11:02 am

Not sure why National would think Luxon is their saviour. His time at AirNZ has not been without public relations problems. I'll start with the swimsuit video, and the Antarctica one.

Their level of service to passengers certainly reduced during his tenure, just the little things that leave a lasting impression. I remember during Fyfe's time even economy passengers on long haul were given hot moist facecloths to freshen up with. Such things disappeared due to Luxon's cost cutting.

Feel free to add more.

Key was largely unknown here before politics, not so Luxon.
- Phil 15.1
  
  11 October 2019 at 11:15 am
  
  His time at AirNZ has not been without public relations problems
  
  Meh. If you're going to blame him for that, you should also give him credit for having no plane crashes during his tenure.
  - William 15.1.1
    
    11 October 2019 at 1:22 pm
    
    Given the program of safety videos was regarded as part of AirNZ's brand, it's very unlikely that they would be released without him at least viewing the completed item. He obviously didn't have concerns because he didn't pull the plug on them.
    
    If he didn't view them then he is definitely following Key, who involved himself so little in the work taking place in the Beehive that he claimed to not know about Jason Ede, who worked just a few doors away on the ninth floor.
    
    Congrats to him for flight safety, (but that's largely due to regulation & manufacturers input).
  - Peter 15.1.2
    
    11 October 2019 at 2:45 pm
    
    Is he going into National to prevent them turning into a train wreck?
    - Phil 15.1.2.1
      
      11 October 2019 at 2:56 pm
      
      Haha! That's a great burn. 🙂
  - AB 15.1.3
    
    11 October 2019 at 3:14 pm
    
    Yep – if you blame them for things going wrong you have to praise them for things going right. It's better to do neither – or else you bestow CEOs with too much importance and contribute to contemporary myths of leadership. If instead you regard them as more or less bullshit jobs, you undermine the perception that there is some sort of natural pathway from CEO to Prime Minister.
- Graeme 15.2
  
  11 October 2019 at 11:23 am
  
  Spot on.
  
  Fyfe was the leader, and rebuilt Air New Zealand from a very dark place. Luxon wasn't much more than a cost accountant, and his "success" owes much to his predecessor.
  - Dukeofurl 15.2.1
    
    11 October 2019 at 2:00 pm
    
    Thats right , he came from Colgate Canada
    - Graeme 15.2.1.1
      
      11 October 2019 at 5:43 pm
      
      Yeah, and his replacement is coming direct from Walmart
      
      https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12275527
      
      Leaving a 13 million role to take over a 3 million one, love to know the ins and outs of that move.
      - Sacha 15.2.1.1.1
        
        11 October 2019 at 8:11 pm
        
        Getting out of the US before it burns to the ground?
        
        Graeme 15.2.1.1.1.1
        
        11 October 2019 at 10:17 pm
        
        Maybe getting out of Walmart before it blows to bits. According to this Vox piece attempting to compete with Amazon is knocking them around and pissing Mr Foran off a tad
        
        https://www.vox.com/recode/2019/7/3/18716431/walmart-jet-marc-lore-modcloth-amazon-ecommerce-losses-online-sales
        
        Oh well, couple of years at Air NZ and then JK 3.0 just in time to collect the pension.
observer 16

11 October 2019 at 11:17 am

"Christopher Luxon says he is not an option for National in the Botany seat".

(NZ Herald, 28 May 2019)

Thanks for clearing that up, Chris.
- Blazer 16.1
  
  11 October 2019 at 11:20 am
  
  Well he has mastered Key's style already!
- Incognito 16.2
  
  11 October 2019 at 12:30 pm
  
  On Wednesday 29 May at 6:17 AM when he was washing his hair in the shower, Mr Christopher Luxon had an epiphany of a Botanical quality. You’ll read it in his biography Chris Luxon: Mirror Image of a Prime Minister, masterfully put together by John Roughan.
  - AB 16.2.1
    
    11 October 2019 at 2:58 pm
    
    The elder statesman of contemporary Kiwi hagiography himself? My – he has been busy! Or perhaps Roughan has been automated, just plug the name of any Nat leadership hopeful into a config file and stand back?
marty mars 17

11 October 2019 at 11:17 am

perhaps

if john key is 1 and luxon is 2, then bridges is 0, simon bridges is 0 – these monkeys will send us to heaven…
mary_a 18

11 October 2019 at 11:48 am

John Key (and ???) influencing National's direction from outside? Instigating a clean out of what's there now, without dirtying his own hands, having his business buddy "boy" at the helm doing the bidding?

Can't wait until Jami-Lee Ross starts up again and he will, while Judith, Simon et al, will be stoking the fires of dissent! Popcorn time coming up!
- Wensleydale 18.1
  
  11 October 2019 at 4:14 pm
  
  John Key just can't let go, can he?
  
  You're not PM anymore, John. Don't you have beans to count and hollow statements about valuing transparency while being deliberately opaque to make? I'm sure there are more obscene profits to be offshored by stiffing ANZ's Kiwi customers, so stop sniffing around the Beehive like a horny dog and hop to it.
Tony Veitch (not etc.) 19

11 October 2019 at 1:04 pm

I follow Soimun on twitter – but only for the delicious comments which follow one of his 'pronouncements.'

Not a word from the leader welcoming a 'potential' new MP to the ranks. Nothing from Judith either.

Noses out of joint – much?
Stuart Munro. 20

11 October 2019 at 1:17 pm

Key garnered a lot of support from the myth that Robert Reich talks about – the poor boy makes good. He could only do that as an unknown because once his lies and double dealing became known, together with the distinctly lackluster economic performance they tried to market as genius, no amount of dissembling could conceal the ugly truth.

Luxon is, frankly, a knob. He may be an easy sell to the financial community but he has no obvious way into the good graces of general public. He can presumably scrape up a bit more smarts than Bridges, but enlightened values, economic acumen, charisma, and statesmanship are looking like howling voids.

Mind, a thicket of deadwood that includes Nick Smith and Gerry Brownlee cannot help but perceive him as a vast improvement – which he is – but nevertheless scarcely fit to run a bath, much less a country.
- Alan 20.1
  
  11 October 2019 at 2:01 pm
  
  Gee Stuart, you must be really scared
  - woodart 20.1.1
    
    11 October 2019 at 2:26 pm
    
    nah, not scared , pissing himself with laughter more likely. nats are looking more and more like a desperate john, will take on the first raddled hooker ,and claim they are the new messiah.
  - Stuart Munro. 20.1.2
    
    11 October 2019 at 3:06 pm
    
    Not really – but it is shameful that an advanced country supports such a wretched level of MPs. We should be able to be proud of them, and frankly they're an embarrassment.
- Sanctuary 20.2
  
  11 October 2019 at 5:46 pm
  
  You have to factor in the centrist ultras who dominate our media though – Luxon is their kind of man (and being a man helps) and they'll big up him as the "steady pair of hands" with the sensible shoes and the business acumen that appeals to "middle New Zealand" (by which they mean the class they drawn from.
  
  Of course, in provincial NZ his name is mud because of the way he gutted routes and extracted monopoly rents from airfares as head of Air NZ.
  - Stuart Munro. 20.2.1
    
    11 October 2019 at 9:01 pm
    
    Although our MSM are indeed a horrid biased unprofessional farce (not looking at you Hoskings or Garner, nor will I ever again), they have burnt much of their clout, and continue to do so whenever they try it on against a much more professional Labour comms team. Gnat hopes lie with a roll of the dice – a market crash, a scandal, perhaps a peace prize they can parley into neglect of local issues. Labour need only exhume a few of the bodies everyone knows National buried – compensate Southern Response victims for example, for the public to recall exactly how badly National stink.
AB 21

11 October 2019 at 1:50 pm

You can't go back. Key worked for them because of conditions at the time. But now that model of facile, barbecue bullshitter is just embarrassing and outdated . And nobody is looking desperately for a blokey counterpoint to a scary, childless feminist with crooked teeth who is "telling then what to think" and what light bulb they can buy. To succeed, Luxon has to be something new, not Key redux. I've yet to see anything that suggests he is – looks like another wealthy BAU guy with over-hyped 'bizniss skulls'. There will be some differences of course – most likely he would pay lip service to addressing CC, but be so hidebound by his worldview that he would tolerate only market-based 'solutions' to it.

Overall, a better tactic for National would be to go right-wing, populist authoritarian – and thereby carve off working class votes from Labour and fogey votes from NZF. And being a woman would help too. So – a female, hard right, populist authoritarian! Someone springs to mind.
Dukeofurl 22

11 October 2019 at 2:07 pm

Then there is the matter of Luxons Christianity – he could be 'too christian'

As Hooton put it

"For his part, Luxon is known as a passionate member of the evangelical and proselytising Upper Room church which emerged in Tennessee in the 1930s. He attends their services in Newmarket.
https://upperroom.org.nz/
- Psycho Milt 22.1
  
  11 October 2019 at 3:32 pm
  
  In which case, if he did take over from Bridges as leader that would make it three religious conservatives in a row for National. Collins would feel like a refreshing change by comparison.
- observer 22.2
  
  11 October 2019 at 3:54 pm
  
  The majority of National's caucus voted FOR the first reading of the Abortion Reform Bill (in a so-called conscience vote).
  
  Of course they might not vote for a second reading, it's common enough for MPs to say "let's explore the issues in committee" before deciding for or against.
  
  But I do hope the media start asking the leader they've already installed how he would vote on this. If it becomes law this term (and it probably will) is he going to campaign to overturn, or amend? Or just decide he's pro-choice after all? Good luck pleasing your devotees AND the swing voters you need.
  
  Over to you, Christopher. You're such an awesome politician (apparently), so you'll have the answer, eh?
woodart 23

11 October 2019 at 2:22 pm

neither luxon or ross is going to be new botany M.P.. bridges has already taken and spent the hundred grand from a new New Zealander for this safe nat seat.there will be rumblings from nat party headquarters in beijing.
mac1 24

11 October 2019 at 2:32 pm

I'd be wary of anyone who wants to live in the upper room in terms of social status, access to power, connectedness, and prestige.

I understand the religious 'upper room' but point out that the use of secular 'upper rooms' such as Clubs, fraternities, gangs, inner circles, old boys' networks, are to be held as very suspect for someone in public life. The privilege of serving one's fellows should not be for the privileged elites.
- Dukeofurl 24.1
  
  11 October 2019 at 4:13 pm
  
  Not that 'Upper room', this one
  - mac1 24.1.1
    
    11 October 2019 at 9:21 pm
    
    Yes I understand the upper room where the last supper was held. If I recall correctly, there was a traitor there too.
weka 25

11 October 2019 at 3:48 pm

Party rivals, the Labour Party and the media will inevitably raise questions about the Upper Room’s theology and to what extent it would guide Luxon’s policy-making. Is Luxon a conservative in the Bolger, English and Bridges mould? Or will his strong religious beliefs inevitable push him to take a much more radical stance on social issues and seek to reverse the general consensus? Delegates, the wider party and the public will want to know.”

Did Hooton ask the same questions about English, who is strongly religious, becoming PM? I haven't read his piece, but nothing that comes from Hooton without an agenda, so how much of this is concern about the religious right, and how much is power play politics?
- McFlock 25.1
  
  11 October 2019 at 4:08 pm
  
  Fair point, it's probably all from Hoot's agenda.
  
  But in that case it tells us two things: internal divisions will make Luxon's religion an issue (whether he's Blinglish-styles or full Pence); and Hoot's preferred leader is testing attack lines now.
  
  Nat meltdown 2020 – unless the party powers spend a lot of money and promises buying off current caucus contenders.
  - Sacha 25.1.1
    
    11 October 2019 at 8:40 pm
    
    … internal divisions will make Luxon's religion an issue (whether he's Blinglish-styles or full Pence); and Hoot's preferred leader is testing attack lines
    
    Spot on. Always an agenda.
- Dukeofurl 25.2
  
  11 October 2019 at 4:17 pm
  
  Hootons point was that English and Bridges are 'devout' but keep it low key as far as affecting policy. They were of course part of the NZ mainstream churches not an american evangelical one.
  - weka 25.2.1
    
    11 October 2019 at 4:27 pm
    
    Bill English is strongly anti-abortion and I'm pretty sure his wife was the high up in the leadership SPUC. That's not mainstream. I have no idea if/how English's religious beliefs influenced policy, it would be surprising if they had no effect. We're lucky that we don't get the evangelical stuff playing out in public in our politics here but that doesn't mean the beliefs and culture aren't a factor.
    - McFlock 25.2.1.1
      
      11 October 2019 at 4:49 pm
      
      That's sort of the point, if Luxon is in fact an evangelical.
      
      Everybody acts and votes according to their own moral code, but there's a difference between say" abstaining or voting against prostitution legalisation; and preaching fire and brimstone against it.
      
      Although it is possible that Blinglish preached fire and brimstone but I didn't notice because he did it in his usual soporific style and I dozed off.
      - weka 25.2.1.1.1
        
        11 October 2019 at 8:29 pm
        
        I think the danger if Luxon is evangelical and eventually becomes leader is that we end up with a more pronounced Trumpian right than we have now. That's scarey shit. My point is that if we think having the religious right hidden in National instead of overtly campaigning, we're missing some of the danger. Getting National to Trumpian is easier if you've already had a non-evangelical anti-abortion leader (am thinking not just of abortion with English, but how his religion might be informing social policy like controlling poor people via big data).
        
        That's doubly troubling considering the amoral branch of the Nats who will do anything for power. They're not going to care about going scarey clappy. I wish the old school conservatives would stand the fuck up, but it feels like expecting lefties in Labour to get rid of the neolibs.
        
        McFlock 25.2.1.1.1.1
        
        11 October 2019 at 8:52 pm
        
        Bit of a thinker, this issue.
        
        My rough take:
        
        Social/religious conservatives have always been represented in NZ politics because they've always existed in NZ. This is a necessary (if shitty) part of democracy.
        
        Evangelical politicians (either preachers telling crowds that specific politicians are followers of the devil, or politicians agitating and othering minorities to get ultra-religious votes), on the other hand, try to generate political power as a product oof deepening social divisions. I think that's what we've seen in the US, and what Tamaki has repeatedly tried to do here (but he's such a greasy charlatan that he doesn't have the traction to pull it off). My fear is that if the nats out of desperation run an evangelical Taliban line, then their supporters who stay will get more isolated, bitter, and violent. Even though they will probably shaft themselves for the next couple of terms while doing so.
        
        weka …
        
        12 October 2019 at 12:08 am
        
        Sounds reasonable, although not sure how likely it is they will shaft themselves rather than fucking NZ and gaining power.
        
        McFlock …
        
        12 October 2019 at 6:42 pm
        
        Well, going by Tamaki's efforts, NZ seems to balk a bit more than the US at hyper-fundamentalists. We definitely have the "thar be deee-mons!" crowd, e.g. the brethren, but I think the vast majority of our tories are self-centred arseholes rather than deranged religonuts.
        
        So the arseholes get split between ACT, NZ1, and National, but the religonuts in national alienate more moderates than folk they attract. And the more conservative NZ1 gets, they lose the ex-labourites who like the goldcard and will tolerate some racism, but going to be with religious extremists is a bit much.
        
        Climaction …
        
        12 October 2019 at 11:17 am
        
        National voters fly, Luxon has overseen the degradation of service of our national airline to serve the god of profit. his email last year was a masterpiece in onanistic sophistry.
        
        luxon won’t get in. Luxon loves luxon too much and it shows in everything he does. National party voters can smell a faker a mile off.
        
        Drowsy M. Kram …
        
        12 October 2019 at 12:01 pm
        
        Key cultivated the Dirty Politics brigade, and is overseeing Luxton's transition into the opposition National party.
        
        Some National party voters may be able to smell fakers, but I'm picking they'll continue to hold their noses for a quid pro status quo – supporters of Key, English, Bridges, Bennett et al. must be mouth-breathers.
      - weka 25.2.1.1.2
        
        11 October 2019 at 8:30 pm
        
        Do we know if English abstained withing caucus? Somehow I doubt it.
    - Sacha 25.2.1.2
      
      11 October 2019 at 8:21 pm
      
      Could Luxon be the 2023 leader of the Nat coalition religious party that Ngaro faltered at?
      - weka 25.2.1.2.1
        
        11 October 2019 at 8:31 pm
        
        If he's as people think it will be interesting to see what comes out of the woodwork in the few years 🙁
- RedBaronCV 25.3
  
  12 October 2019 at 7:06 pm
  
  Had a look at the upper room website. Led by a couple and she is daughter of Ian & Mary Grant who run the parenting outfit and She has produced a sex education programme approved by Family first.
  
  so do we get the family first attitudes stuffed into our public schools? and other legislation
rod 26

11 October 2019 at 4:43 pm

Luxon is just another highflying, smooth talking, right wing multi millionare looking for a quick knighthood, and once that is on his cv he will be gone like a rocket just like that other bloke NZ was saddled for nearly 9 years. Can't recall his name.
Fireblade 27

11 October 2019 at 5:44 pm

Luxon has to earn his gang patch.

It took the John Key turd four years to float to the top of the National Party sewer.
mary_a 28

11 October 2019 at 5:51 pm

@ Fireblade (27) … Well said and so true
observer 29

11 October 2019 at 5:58 pm

Four years ago: President Obama. PMs Key, Cameron, an Australian. No Brexit, Trump, etc.

Anyone who claims to know what the world will look like in 4 years' time could have done us a favour and told us 4 years ago what was going to happen by 2019.

But they didn't, because they couldn't.

Maybe Luxon will be PM in 2023. Maybe cars will be fuelled by ear wax. Ask a political commentator – or toss a coin.
- phillip ure 29.1
  
  12 October 2019 at 7:20 am
  
  heh..!..yr cynicism @ the quality/veracity of political predictions is well justified..
  
  i am currently wondering about the greens..
  
  as in will they continue their version of green-lite..
  
  or will they get serious about what we face – and ramp it up to essentially become the political wing/voice for the likes of extinction rebellion..?
newsense 30

11 October 2019 at 7:27 pm

Key had some humility. This guy is already a bit messianic. Key also kept a relatively low profile until he made his move.
- patricia bremner 30.1
  
  11 October 2019 at 11:30 pm
  
  Key just ran his cabal through his other hat.
- phillip ure 30.2
  
  12 October 2019 at 7:28 am
  
  'Key had some humility. '
  
  he concealed it well…
- Dukeofurl 30.3
  
  12 October 2019 at 9:32 am
  
  "Key also kept a relatively low profile until he made his move. "
  
  Back in those days "Wall St " had an aura about it for the average nat, that Colgate and Air NZ doesnt
JustMe 31

12 October 2019 at 10:51 am

I am now at that stage of life when it comes to voting that I would never ever vote for a NZ National Party politician ever again.

They are all tainted with the brush of ego, greed(for themselves), self-obsession(aka photo opportunities) and the ridiculous belief they are all so perfect that they sit right beside God. Their pure arrogance shows no end. Their inability to admit they make mistakes is just so profound. And their supporters in the mainstream NZ media just never bring up those past mistakes perhaps because most of the so-called journalists in the mainstream NZ media are in the NZ National Party pocket(s) financially.

Where Luxon is concerned I think he deems himself a future leader(like Muldoon and Mussolini i.e all three lacked hair, have/had the some facial expressions and pouts and pure arrogance)of the New Zilland(as Key called this country)National Party. His(Luxon)choice of deputy would probably be the equally arrogant Judith Collins. I am so hoping Bridges and Bennett are losing sleep over the fact their(Bridges and Bennett’s) cosy little self serving relationship could well be nearing a well deserved end(aka Karmic Payback).

For National birds of a feather flock together. They have shown to us NZ voters just how corruptible they can demean themselves to and I am so over their behavioral problems.

Next year will be the next NZ general election. If National are incapable of being honest to New Zealanders now due to their personal EGO Quests then it's time they told us. I for one am fed up to the backteeth of funding(through my taxes)their vanity project and self-spending on say the outside appearance of a government department rather than spending taxpayers dollars on say a mansion in Hawaii and an apartment in New York.
Rick Townsend 32

12 October 2019 at 3:50 pm

We have already had one king with no clothes we don't want another!

Danny Kaye https://youtu.be/t80UDdbV3Mk
joe90 33

13 October 2019 at 10:26 am

Or will his strong religious beliefs inevitable push him to take a much more radical stance on social issues and seek to reverse the general consensus? Delegates, the wider party and the public will want to know.”

If his pastor's twitter is anything to go by, Luxon will likely tote a similar grab bag of RWNJ fuckwittery.

https://twitter.com/craigheilmann
michelle 34

14 October 2019 at 2:37 pm

national according to soimon are bringing in some big names, big names equals bigger bullshit it also means crushing others i hope the new maori party don't go near this toxic lot