Labour takes the lead in RNZ poll of polls

Written By: - Date published: 6:05 am, September 8th, 2017 - 70 comments
Categories: election 2017, labour, polls - Tags: , ,

Colin James on RNZ:

Labour a nose ahead of National on the averages

Labour, on 41.8% has nudged ahead of National, on 41.1%, in the latest RNZ poll of polls – in the wake of tonight’s 1 News Colmar Brunton poll.
…
The boost to Labour more than offsets the continued slide of the Greens to just 5.4%. The combined Labour+Greens average is now 47.2%.  That is 6% ahead of National.
…
The latest averages translate into: Labour 51 seats, National 51, Green 7 and New Zealand First 10.

Labour have the momentum, and 2 weeks to go…

70 comments on “Labour takes the lead in RNZ poll of polls ”

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  1. Carolyn_nth 1
    8 September 2017 at 6:56 am

    It is very good to have the Nats on the run, after 9 long years.

    But, also remember it’s not First Past the Post; it’s not just about National and Labour; and to have a truly left wing government, the Green Party needs to be strong, and not playing also-ran to a Labour-NZFirst government.

    Basically, it needs a majority of votes for left wing parties and candidates.

    • Incognito 1.1
      8 September 2017 at 7:40 am

      Yes, I have very mixed feelings about where this election might be heading.

      As always, be careful what you wish for; we could end up in a situation that’s not to be desired or needed …

    • Bearded Git 1.2
      8 September 2017 at 4:16 pm

      Newsroom has done a poll today. Amazing results as follows:

      Labour 45 National 30 New Zealand First 11 Greens 6 TOP 2 Māori Party 2 Act 1

      The poll of 550 voting age people was conducted between Monday and Wednesday this week.

      National’s vote appears to be collapsing.

      https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/09/08/46848/election-15-days

      • alwyn 1.2.1
        8 September 2017 at 5:24 pm

        I get very suspicious when I read that
        “Rather, it is a random sample from SSI’s nationwide panel”.
        Have they ever done this before and what were the results of that exercise?

        It might be a random sample but it isn’t a random sample of the population.
        After all, if I did a random sample of 1000 members of the ACT party ( if there are that many) I would probably find that they were going to get at least 9 members in the new Parliament.

        By the way it was done before the TV1 poll. That must mean that National’s vote is rising rapidly.

        • Bearded Git 1.2.1.1
          8 September 2017 at 10:32 pm

          Colmar Brunton was taken 2-6 Sept, Newsroom was taken 4-6 Sept….National’s vote is collapsing really fast.

          Probably since Espiner’s gotcha moment with Joyce-this was a major disaster for the Nats.

        • North 1.2.1.2
          9 September 2017 at 1:18 am

          Yeah yeah Alwyn. Get real man……..things are changing like it or not…….your beautiful 30 year neo-lib exercise has completely fucked itself. Through the greed of the relatively few it honoured and licensed. If you must, cry your heart out, but don’t be such a spoiler as to fuck around with the emerging hope your lot never offered. “Brighter Future”…….pfft ! And you know what……your effete, gauche wee idol Key didn’t even serve as long as PM as did Helen Clark.

          • alwyn 1.2.1.2.1
            9 September 2017 at 10:38 am

            “Key didn’t even serve as long as PM as did Helen Clark.”
            Wow! What amazing trivia you know.

            Can I offer you some equalling interesting snippets?
            Peter Dunne was a Minister of the Crown for longer than Helen Clark.
            John Key never lost an election as either leader or deputy leader of his party.
            Helen Clark lost 4 elections while either leader or deputy leader of her party.

            Now what precisely is the point of your remark?

  3. Zeroque 3
    8 September 2017 at 8:42 am

    Yes I suspect it’s going to come down to how the minor parties do on the day. Even if Labour, lets say, gains another 2% and National loses 1% more both are going to need coalition partners. The Greens really do need to do everything right between now and the 23rd. I haven’t been able to work it through in my head but if for example Greens didn’t make the 5% that would mean what, apart from the obvious which is that they wouldn’t be available as a coalition partner for any other party? And the same question for Act and TOP I suppose although TOP don’t have anyone in parliament currently so votes for them would be wasted in the event they don’t make 5% I suppose?

    • Bearded Git 3.1
      8 September 2017 at 9:49 am

      If the Greens don’t get 5% we are stuck with a Lab/NZF government if we are lucky. Winston may go with the Nats-39+9+MP+ACT would be the government.

      Labour desperately needs the Greens to get over 5% so that we have a progressive government-Jacinda has repeated several times she will call James Shaw first.

      Some tactical voting is required from Labour supporters who have Green sympathies.

      • Ad 3.1.1
        8 September 2017 at 1:28 pm

        It’s the Greens that need the Greens.
        Every disillusioned Green-swinger needs a phonecall.

        It’s really close.

        • tracey 3.1.1.1
          8 September 2017 at 1:55 pm

          That is only true if you want National lite instead of National. Your FPP thinking may yet defeat us all.

          • Ad 3.1.1.1.1
            8 September 2017 at 3:54 pm

            Nope. Every party does its own campaign. Everywhere.

            • Bearded Git 3.1.1.1.1.1
              8 September 2017 at 11:02 pm

              Very FPP thinking Ad.

              This is the first time that tactical voting can get us a progressive government. can’t you at least see some sense in this?

              Or do you really want a Nat/NZF or Lab/NZF government?

        • swordfish 3.1.1.2
          8 September 2017 at 10:46 pm

          Ad

          It’s really close

          .

          Yep – knife-edge for the Greens

          Egs Latest Colmar Brunton & Reid Research

          Colmar Brunton (2-3 Weeks out)

          ….…..…. Colmar Brunton ….….. Election Result ….….. Diff
          Sep 2017 ..…..….. 5
          Sep 2014 ..…..….. 11 ….…..….….……….10.7 .…..…..…..…. – 0.3
          Nov 2011 ..…..….. 9 ….…..….…..…. .…. 11.1 .….…..………. + 2.1
          Oct 2008 ..…..…… 8 ….…..…….….…..…..6.7 .…..….……….. – 1.3
          Aug 2005 ……..…. 6 ….…..…….….…..…..5.3 .…..….……….. – 0.7
          July 2002 …………. 9 ….…..….….………….7.0 .…..….……….. – 2.0
          .

          Newshub Reid Research (3-4 Weeks out)

          ….Newshub Reid Research ….… Election Result ….….. Diff

          Aug 2017 …….……. 6
          Aug 2014 ………… 14 ….…..….…………..….10.7 .…..…..…..…. – 3.3
          Nov 2011 …….……10 ….…..….…..…… .…. 11.1 .….…..………. + 1.1
          Oct 2008 …….…… 7 ….…..…….….……..……6.7 .…..….……….. – 0.3
          Aug 2005 …….…… 6 ….…..…….…..…….…..5.3 .…..….……….. – 0.7
          July 2002 …….…… 10.8 ….…..…………..…..7.0 .…..….……….. – 3.8

          Greens % over-stated vis-à-vis subsequent Election Result in all recent Elections (except their 2011 breakthrough)

          Final Round of Polling (average last 5 Polls) overstated Green support
          by
          + 1.9 (2014)
          + 1.3 (2011)
          + 1.6 (2008)

          So Greens do indeed have a propensity to underperform on Election Day ..… but will it be different this time ? …, given the Greens are down to their core support rather than riding the crest of a late wave as in previous Elections – ie solid base support rather than froth

          Hard to be sure though …, it might be an innate propensity associated with the
          younger age of their support base + poor GOTV operation

          • Bearded Git 3.1.1.2.1
            8 September 2017 at 11:13 pm

            There is credibility in your bedrock argument. This is supported by the fact that there were only small drops of 0.7 where the Greens were in danger of not getting to 5%.

            But we are in a unique situation. Jacinda needs the Greens to get back to form a progressive government.

            Do you not think that in this situation quite a few people will either tactically vote for OR move back to the Greens so that they get a progressive government?

            Maybe she needs to be hinting at this.

    • alwyn 3.2
      8 September 2017 at 9:55 am

      I think you might as well get used to the fact that there will only be 5 parties in the next Parliament.
      Labour and National will be there with 50+ seats each but not with enough to govern.
      ACT and the Maori party will be sitting there with 1 or perhaps 2 (Maori party only) seats.
      The Greens and TOP will be history, just as the Alliance and Conservative parties are.
      New Zealand First will have 10 or so and will be the kingmaker. Winston will be sitting there happily selling off his support.
      “What am I bid?” he will be asking.

      • Ed 3.2.1
        8 September 2017 at 10:07 am

        NZ First are not a shoo in.

        • alwyn 3.2.1.1
          8 September 2017 at 10:31 am

          They aren’t a shoo in.
          On the other hand the lowest number I have seen for them in any recent poll was 6.6% and they are more typically over 8%. They normally get around their final polling percentage when it comes to the actual election results. I think they are quite safe.

          The Green Party Is polling right on the chop off line and they tend to lose votes in the election compared to their late polling numbers. That is why I believe they are gone.

          I suspect Winston’s target for his press releases is going to shift from National to Labour and the Green Party for the rest of the campaign. His aim in life is to get his bum back in a BMW. He is surely going to try and reduce the chances of anyone getting enough seats to be able to govern without him.
          He will consider he has achieved that with National. Now he will be trying to guarantee the same thing with the other side. He can do that by knocking the Green Party out completely and holding Labour to a figure in the low 40s or by holding Labour to about 41% even if the Green Party get back.
          Never imagine that Winston doesn’t put Winston’s future first.

          • Ed 3.2.1.1.1
            8 September 2017 at 10:38 am

            Your thoughts on Winston sound about right.
            I think that some Green voters will return to ensure they get over 5%. My pick is about 7 to 8% for the Greens.

          • FactCheck 3.2.1.1.2
            8 September 2017 at 11:16 am

            The Green Party Is polling right on the chop off line and they tend to lose votes in the election compared to their late polling numbers.

            People should have data to back up statements of fact. Especially when it is so easy to obtain:

            Lest we pull a Joyce…

            Statement of opinion, on the other hand, have at it. They mean nothing.

            • alwyn 3.2.1.1.2.2
              8 September 2017 at 12:04 pm

              I am not really sure what you are asking about but I will assume it is the statement that the Green Party tend to do less well in the election than they do in the polls.
              Your links don’t help very much as they don’t have the numbers and the dates reported.
              However if you look at these Wiki articles you get, the opinion polls and a smoothed value for the end of the pre-election period.
              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2008
              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2011
              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2014
              These give results, just prior to the election for the Green Party of
              2008 8.7%
              2011 13%
              2014 12.2%
              The actual results the Green Party got were
              2008 6.72%
              2011 11.06%
              2014 10.70%
              I think my point is very well justified. The Green Party DOES tend to get a lower result in the election than they do in the late polls in the pre-election period. In other words the data does back up my statement of fact.

              • Bearded Git …
                8 September 2017 at 12:45 pm

                That Poll of Polls is based on two Colmar Brunton and one Reid Research Poll. It ignores the Roy Morgan that has the Greens at 9% and I seem to remember another poll that had them at 8%.

                It is interesting-the last Roy Morgan covered the period 31st July to 13th August. A new one is well overdue-maybe today?

              • DSpare …
                8 September 2017 at 2:25 pm

                alwyn
                It is not just before the the election, we are still fifteen days out (though admittedly it is time to vote if you are overseas). The 2008 figures are most likely to have relevance here, as I can’t see the GP getting over 10%. So the most recent CB poll that sampled 2-6th September, would there correspond to the poll 18-23 October. GP Poll results at that period in 2008 were:

                7% Fairfax Media–Nielsen 8–14 October
                5% One News Colmar Brunton 11–16 October
                8.8% 3 News TNS Released 23 October
                11.5% Roy Morgan Research 6–19 October
                5.4% Herald-DigiPoll 15–22 October
                8% One News Colmar Brunton 18–23 October

                Which gives a total for that period of 7.6% – still higher than what they finally achieved, but only by 0.9% (so likely within the margin of error – would need to dig up the sample numbers to calculate that and can’t be bothered). Or if you take it all the way back to the September announcement of the election, you get an average of 7%.

                2005 might be a better comparison, given the range of polling at the 3-6 weeks period being roughly comparable at 3-7.5 % (4.3-9% this election) leading to a final GP result of 5.3% :

                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2005

                That said, I’m not at all a fan of this technique of calculating an average between polling companies, when the main statistically significant result evident in these numbers is that Roy Morgan (too high) results are consistantly different to Colmar Brunton (too low) results for the GP. This is important because the baseline for these poll of poll graphs is largely the Roy Morgan which polls every month; election or no, but is then skewed by the flurry of CB (and other) polls immediately before each election. This gives a good graphical representation if you adjust the pollster and axis options to display the difference:

                https://www.andrewchen.nz/polls

                • the pigman …
                  8 September 2017 at 7:26 pm

                  A note for those overseas about voting and this Green issue.

                  I’m a labour voter planning to strategically vote Green.

                  However, if the polling average closer to the cutoff has then averaging well below 5% (say 4-4.3%) then it would be pointless to waste my party vote on them, especially given that their election day results are consistently below their polling average.

                  For that reason, I’m planning to wait until closer to the cut-off before completing and uploading my voting paper. I’d suggest others do the same.

              • tracey …
                8 September 2017 at 2:30 pm

                No your point relates to when Labour is disliked. What are the pre and actual results for greens since MMP began. If the same as above your point is proved, otherwise…

                • ScottGN …
                  8 September 2017 at 3:32 pm

                  Agreed tracey. I reckon 1999 is the relevant election in relation to this one. A tired tory government fighting the time for a change feel. The Greens were suffering as Labour headed towards government under Clark and you’ll remember that in the last week or so as the 5% threshold looked increasingly hard for them to achieve Clark took to surrounding herself with Green supporters and placards at the campaign standups.

                  • alwyn …
                    8 September 2017 at 4:56 pm

                    I had a quick look at earlier years
                    In 2005 the poll average for all polls in the last 3 weeks before the election was 6%. The actual result was 5.3%
                    In 1999 the polls just before the election are reported as 5.9%. The actual result was 5.2%.
                    Both drops, about 12% in each case are consistent with the 2008-2014 numbers I gave.
                    I can’t readily find anything for 2002 and I really can’t be bothered looking any further. Try it yourself if you are interested.

                    In every election the result has been a decline in the vote between poll and election. I am not terribly interested in the reason but the effect does seem to be real. Certainly I could work out the statistics in more detail but I don’t feel like justifying rigorously the opinion I have expressed, and I believe have illustrated that the vote the Green Party gets is consistently quite a lot below the numbers the polls have reported.

                    The same effect does not show up for New Zealand First. They routinely get an election result that is close to the polling figure.

              • FactCheck …
                8 September 2017 at 2:36 pm

                Look at the green line just before the elections….

                They take a drastic jump up in the final weeks. Probably due to the minor leaders debates and the end of the FPP-style reporting we have got going now.
                Does not mean it will happen this time but it does not mean that they are doomed to get lower than now. Time will tell.
                Sadly the while the GP leader is a very nice guy, he is too quiet and timid for the multi-party debate atmosphere. Time will tell here also.
                You are also forgetting the Teflon John effect that was in play then also and now is not.

                My current theory on “LEFT/RIGHT” voting habits here and abroad on “swing/lazy voters” (i.e. the only ones that count) is thus:
                – The right tend to vote consistently and pick up a larger % in demographics that vote more.
                – The Left generally need a “good” reason to turn out or they stay home.
                – Polls don’t poll whether you are going to stay home and people would probably “lie” if they did.
                – This is a global western democracy trend and not limited to NZ.

                Seen this in the UK, NZ and the US. If you look at %’s only you will not see it. But if you look at numbers it makes more sense:
                e.g.
                Trump did not get that many more numbers than the last R clown, but Hilary tanked compared to Obama. i.e: Trump did not win that election, Hilary lost it. (I predicted this 6 months out, but that is neither here nor there)
                I read the same thing happened with Key last time: their total numbers were stable, but the left tanked theirs. (I have not personally done a formal analysis so grain of salt)

                My prediction therefore is that this time around (can you guess why?) the polls will do the opposite (not by a large amount: ~2% max) of what they did last time.

                For what its worth…which is little to nothing…but a fun mental exercise nonetheless.
                Aside:
                Currently working on deep learning (AI) algorithms.
                Would not be that hard to do and be an interesting study to feed news, social media and poll data in and attempt to predict future results from that.

                Would be a total waste of my time…but… 😉

                • FactCheck …
                  8 September 2017 at 4:23 pm

                  Forgot to mention smear campaigns.

                  This is also the reason Right wing smear campaigns work even when they smear themselves and why Labour’s “positive” campaign is smart:

                  Right wing parties know, because of the above, they don’t have to convert voters; just make them stay home.
                  While a converted vote is worth “2 points”, a stay at home vote is still worth 1. For the Right it is also much easier to do. (ref: the last two elections) The left voter who stays home still hates national, but they don’t vote.
                  Even if it devolves into a he-said/she-said, it almost always favours the Right. And if you read the news articles just after the Joyce smear, that is EXACTLY where it was heading.
                  Fortunately, economists rode in like knights to the rescue and most of the damage was avoided, but you will notice this has not deterred National one bit – they are dying on that hill despite everything.
                  Why? Because they know they don’t have to come away clean, they just have to smear everyone in shit.

                  It always amuses me when there is a scandal that most people think that “proving” they are correct is the most important thing.
                  It most certainly is not. Making sure your voters don’t get “fatigued” and give up is the most important thing.

          • tracey 3.2.1.1.3
            8 September 2017 at 1:56 pm

            Your thoughts on the Greens… is tgat poll drop consisten across 20 years or mostly during Labours slump?

            • alwyn 3.2.1.1.3.1
              8 September 2017 at 5:02 pm

              Have a look at my comment in reply to ScottGN a little bit up the line.
              It seems to have happened at the 1999, 2005, 2008, 2011 and 2014 elections. I couldn’t find a simple source of data for 2002. That covers Labour going up as well as going down.
              Thus it appears to have happened consistently every election.
              That is all the elections there are. The Greens didn’t stand as a party until 1999.

              • ScottGN …
                8 September 2017 at 5:10 pm

                I’m not disputing your assertion that the Greens tend to do worse on election day than their polling beforehand suggests. I think that is a well established idea.
                I was simply offering my thoughts as to which election could be seen as a pointer for this one and I said 1999 where the Greens were similarly struggling at the 5% threshold level.

      • ScottGN 3.2.2
        8 September 2017 at 12:22 pm

        I think you’re underestimating the potential for National’s vote to drop further alwyn. Their campaign has been complete shite and I don’t think the full impact of Joyce’s disastrous punt with the fiscal hole is showing up in the polling yet and thanks in part to that I reckon voters have stopped listening to them.
        It’s entirely possible that the broad range of voters that kept Key afloat for all those years could fracture and head off in all directions.

        • Bearded Git 3.2.2.1
          8 September 2017 at 12:46 pm

          +100 Scott

        • Ad 3.2.2.2
          8 September 2017 at 12:54 pm

          In the last week, any Green Party supporters here might want to take a couple of days leave and campaign for them full time.

          It’s really, really close.

          • ScottGN 3.2.2.2.1
            8 September 2017 at 5:11 pm

            The election is close? Or the Greens breaking the 5% threshold is close? Can you clarify?

        • alwyn 3.2.2.3
          8 September 2017 at 5:14 pm

          “I think you’re underestimating”.
          You may be quite correct. How would I know?
          As Niels Bohr said. “It is very hard to predict, especially about the future”.

          I certainly did not expect the change in Labour support that came with the new leader. I did expect a jump when they got rid of the exclusively dreary negative approach of Andrew Little but, in the absence of any clearly worked out and articulated policies, I didn’t expect anything like what has happened.
          The fact that the Green Party indulged in a bit of seppuku at the same time might have helped them of course but not as much as this.

          Even if most of Labour’s new votes has come from a decline in the Green and NZF support doesn’t change the fact that there is now little or no difference between the Labour and National poll numbers and I never thought that could happen so late in the election cycle.

  4. DoublePlusGood 4
    8 September 2017 at 10:02 am

    I rate almost all of the Green’s candidates in list positions 7-20 over Labour’s 35-50 list positions.
    So those who’ve moved back to Labour should really be thinking now about trying to ensure some more of the Green’s excellent candidates get in.
    It would be an absolute disgrace if Golriz Ghahraman (8) and Jack McDonald (11) didn’t get in.

    • Bearded Git 4.1
      8 September 2017 at 11:22 am

      @doubleplus good

      Unfortunately tribal Labour voters and former Green voters dazzled by Jacinda’s stardust (she is really good) do not think like this. Many will blindly vote for Labour without realising that if the Greens get less than 5% their vote may be totally wasted in terms of getting a progressive government.

      Alwyn, that well known right wing troll, realises this in his comment above, hence his efforts to portray a vote for the Greens as a wasted vote.

  5. FactCheck 5
    8 September 2017 at 11:16 am

    The Green Party Is polling right on the chop off line and they tend to lose votes in the election compared to their late polling numbers.

    People should have data to back up statements of fact. Especially when it is so easy to obtain:

    Lest we pull a Joyce…

    Statement of opinion, on the other hand, have at it. They mean nothing.

  6. Glenn 6
    8 September 2017 at 12:38 pm

    http://insights.nzherald.co.nz/article/2017-election-forecast/

    Labour is projected to gain 22 seats to end up with 54(±2) seats,
    with National, projected to be at 48 (±2) seats.

    To form a government, a party or coalition needs at least 61 out of 120 seats, or to reach a confidence-and-supply agreement. At this stage neither National or Labour have a clear path to 61 without New Zealand First support or a comeback from the Greens. The total number of seats could increase if there is an overhang from a minor party winning an electorate

    The Greens are projected to be at 5 (±1) seats.

    New Zealand First, projected to win 12 (±3) seats

    Maori Party projected to get 2(±1) seats and ACT one.

    Interesting interactive website.

    • Bearded Git 6.1
      8 September 2017 at 12:48 pm

      The model is rubbish-the Greens would get no seats at 4.7%

    • alwyn 6.2
      8 September 2017 at 2:03 pm

      “an overhang from a minor party winning an electorate”.
      It is a little more than that. It is that a party wins more electorate seats than their party vote entitles them to. A party vote of about 0.4% entitles a party to 1 seat. A vote of about 1.2% entitles them to two. The percentage varies depending on what percentage of the vote is wasted. It is exactly 0.4 if 96% of the party votes count.
      If ACT win one electorate and top 0.4% they will not cause an overhang. If the Maori party win 2 electorates and get 1.2% there will be no overhang. Both of these events seem quite likely.

      As Bearded Git says. The model is silly, unless the Green Party win an electorate, in giving them any seats with 4.7%. I can’t see any electorate they might win.

  7. WILD KATIPO 7
    8 September 2017 at 12:49 pm

    … ” Alwyn, that well known right wing troll, realises this in his comment above, hence his efforts to portray a vote for the Greens as a wasted vote ” …

    alwyn can ‘realise’ all he / she wants , – but it wont add up to shit. The truth is , alwyn is doing a ‘ Tokyo Rose’ act.

    Its the same as the Dildo Joyce effort ,… another ‘ Tokyo Rose’ .

    And that’s all desperate losers ever do , – try and spread rumours, sow doubt , induce fear and attempt to demoralize. Its the oldest trick in the book from a weaker side that knows its losing. And we all know what happened to Tokyo Rose and her team.

    The Greens are going to come trucking on through much to the dismay and chagrin of the National and ACT camps. Their disarray and sense of loss will be palpable.

    Pink Floyd – The Dark Side of the Moon: Brain Damage (HD … – YouTube
    you tube▶ 3:49

  8. savenz 8
    8 September 2017 at 1:56 pm

    Wonderful news about Labour. But NZ needs the Greens as much as the Greens needs the NZ votes. Lets hope The National party starts dropping to the floor. I also think there is a place for NZ First as well as Mana. To me all four parties represent groups in NZ that should be represented and their voices and positions represented in parliament. The problem with National is the they don’t seem to represent the people anymore, just donars, their cronies and dinosaurs. National seem to be relying on using fake information and promises as well as slinging dirt around on their rivals, to cling to power. People are tired of it.

    • Ffloyd 8.1
      8 September 2017 at 11:16 pm

      What I really like about this rout is Jacinda is standing on a rock solid foundation of a common cause from the whole Labour Party for the betterment and prosperity all New Zealanders. No egos involved. Just sincerity
      No lies. No bull shit. Just a return thto our formerly world renowned egalitarianism The whole party rocks. Especially the instigator of the solid base they have 😐Andrew Little. They are a tight unit.

      • Patricia Bremner 8.1.1
        9 September 2017 at 6:56 am

        You are so correct. Andrew Little has turned Labour towards the progressive cohesive direction.

        Jacinda has lit the dream and given hope that we can value people more than money, and do better.

        She has involved all age groups, but especially the young.

        Now they are so united in their goals they are convincing. Let’s do this.

  9. DSpare 9
    8 September 2017 at 3:04 pm

    Here is another poll showing Labour ahead. Though it was apparently; “first published in the September 16, 2017 issue of the New Zealand Listener”, which gives me serious doubts about the numeracy of the writer. Hopefully this; “Bauer Media Insights IQ”, outfit know what they are doing, though it does have a large; “don’t know”, group in the party vote (10% down from 18% in May):

    http://www.noted.co.nz/currently/politics/poll-labour-national-and-the-crucial-8/

    Respondents were also asked about the biggest issues capturing their attention during the election campaign. Housing, with 413 unprompted mentions, topped the list, followed by health (218), education (210), tax (188) and water (116).

    • alwyn 9.1
      8 September 2017 at 6:43 pm

      “September 16, 2017 issue of the New Zealand Listener”, which gives me serious doubts about the numeracy of the writer”.

      You are obviously not a subscriber to the magazine.

      That is the standard way the Listener works. They give programs for a Saturday to Friday week and they always identify the issue by the Saturday date of the week that the programs cover.
      They also publish a week ahead of that date.
      I will get my copy of that issue in the mail tomorrow, therefore. It was almost certainly for sale in the shops today and quite possibly yesterday.
      So no, they aren’t time travellers and are perfectly numerate.

      That was a poll I got questioned for, from the look of it. It was an automatic telephone poll, and if you didn’t hear the whole question there didn’t seem to be a way to get it repeated. I have no idea what party I said I was going to vote for. I got passed the phone just after the first question was asked and they were up to the third or fourth party. You know the thing “……..Press 4 for Mana, press 5 for Green”.
      I confess I arbitrarily chose 1 without knowing which one it was.

  10. Michael who failed Civics 10
    8 September 2017 at 4:12 pm

    Isn’t it amazing what a dash of lipstick can do? I have no idea how long it lasts though.

  11. Wisdumb 11
    8 September 2017 at 5:03 pm

    Breaking news!

    Steven Joyce has just announced that there is a 12% (11.7%) hole in the recent Colmar Brunton poll and that National is actually standing at 39% +12% = 51%, and could therefore govern alone. When it was pointed out that his numbers added up to more than 100% he said that he’d been in government for nine years and knew what he was doing – imagine if Labour did the numbers – they would make it add up something like 99.99% or 100.01% – far too tight and clearly completely unrealistic. (This is meant to be satire.)

  12. Wisdumb 12
    8 September 2017 at 6:12 pm

    Breaking news!

    Steven Joyce has just announced that there is a 12% (11.7%) hole in the recent Colmar Brunton poll and that National is actually standing at 39% +12% = 51%, and could therefore govern alone. When it was pointed out that his numbers added up to more than 100% he said that he’d been in government for nine years and knew what he was doing – imagine if Labour did the numbers – they would make it add up something like 99.99% or 100.01% – far too tight and clearly completely unrealistic. (It’s meant to be satire.)

  13. North 13
    9 September 2017 at 1:32 am

    Advice please. Northland electorate. Electorate vote Winnie ? Party vote……Green or Labour ? Expert people…..does it matter whether I vote Green or Labour party vote ? Like for the common cause which is best. Haven’t the time or the head to work that out for myself. Advice please.

  14. Kim 14
    9 September 2017 at 12:04 pm

    Yes!! Give your party vote to the Greens!! The Labour party needs the Greens in government. Jacinda Ardern wants the Greens to be part of the team.

    The Green Party has impressed me since I was in the U.S. but felt it was a wasted vote among a two party system. This is not the case here in New Zealand. New Zealand’s Green Party Charter is like a lighthouse in a storm. That lighthouse needs our help to make it brighter. Let’s take this by storm….surprise even ourselves.

    You can go door knocking, make calls….BUT talk to those closest to you. Talk to those that you know have voted for Greens in the past; those that have wanted to vote, but didn’t get to the polls; those that have voted Labour, but always want Greens in Parliament; AND those that want to vote Greens, but are too afraid to lose out to National this year, so are voting Labour.

    Make sure everyone that wants to vote Party Vote Green gets it right on the voting papers. I say this because I had a friend, last election, that wanted to give her Party vote to the Greens, but got confused at the polls and gave the electorate to the Greens, and the party vote to Labour. This year she is having it written down and taking it into the polls; she’s not taking any chances.

    Get on the phone…NOW!!

  15. Jeff 15
    9 September 2017 at 5:37 pm

    I’ll be waiting until Election Day to cast my vote. If the Greens are in trouble I may Not be voting Labour for the first time in my life. The Greens need to get over the line and form a government with Labour and the Maori Party.

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