Latest Colmar Brunton poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:21 pm, December 2nd, 2018 - 189 comments
Categories: Economy, greens, Judith Collins, labour, national, nz first, Politics, polls, Simon Bridges - Tags:

The latest Colmar Brunton poll result has been released and to be honest the results are rather difficult to understand.

National is up 3 to 46%. This does not accord with recent internal polling of the parties.

ACT is up to 1%. The Greens are on 5% and NZ First is on 4%.

Simon Bridges is on 7% as preferred leader and Judith Collins is on 6%.  Watch out Simon …

And people are more confident about the economy, reflecting some very good economic news that the country has had lately.  Normally this sort of result favours the incumbent Government.

It is a strange result and very similar to the last poll result with movements mostly being within the margin of error.

Something for everyone to notice but also something to take with a grain of salt.

189 comments on “Latest Colmar Brunton poll ”

  1. “This does not accord with recent internal polling of the parties.”

    Have you seen any actual details of internal party polls? Without all the details and polling history party polls are a waste of public time.

    • Kat 1.1

      “Without all the details and polling history party polls are a waste of public time….”

      So are Colmar Brunton polls. But if serves to give some relief to National which is the objective. Labour must be kept out of power “at all costs”.

      • Pete George 1.1.1

        With Labour on 43% it looks nothing like Labour must be kept out of power “at all costs”. It’s a fairly even split in public support.

        • Kat 1.1.1.1

          Do you know for certainty if Labour is on 43% or are you just parroting what Colmar Brunton says.

          • Pete George 1.1.1.1.1

            I know for certainty that Colmar Brunton have published that Labour are on 43% (rounded to a whole number) in their poll with fieldwork conducted 24-28 November. That’s what this post ‘parrots’.

            As with all polls it’s a rough indicator of party support, over the last week.

            If they polled again next week they may or may not get the same result, but there has been nothing significant happen in politics so I doubt it would vary much.

            There’s no point in getting upset over a single poll.

            But I can understand if some people are disappointed that National haven’t crashed after the Jami-Lee Ross debacle. National have weathered a lot of rough times over the last few years, but they mostly only seem to affect a small number of people interested in politics as opposed to the general public.

            • Robert Guyton 1.1.1.1.1.1

              “Pete George” – who cares?

              • cleangreen

                Pete George cares we dont.

                National voters always old onto any sign in ‘the wind’ that they are still relevant.

                After national sold all our assets it’s a wonder gorge and his right wingers aren’t hung for crimes against the state,

                But they took our assets for a peppercorn price and now are screwing us all with these assets services rising costs.

        • Matthew Whitehead 1.1.1.2

          It’s really not. There are 52% of people expressing a voting intention for government parties there, and there are still more for Labour and the Greens than there are for National. There’s no way to swing this as anything but sweet relief after all their bumbling, and all it shows is that the Entire Opposition in One Party is still not knocked out. Give it time.

          It’s not a bad result for the government, but they’ll want to either bolster NZF or have Labour eat their vote entirely.

      • Chris T 1.1.2

        The only 2 polls that have had Labour ahead were CB polls

        Were those “waste of public time” as well?

        • Chris 1.1.2.1

          Perhaps it’s time for your mate Jami-Lee to pull one of the many pins he’s got lined up ready to go? That’ll be sure to put your lot right up there.

          • Rapunzel 1.1.2.1.1

            According to Newshub during the week he is staying on “leave” by advice until into the new year now. I can hear wheels grinding out some alternative outcome, that will only prolong the internal National Party ructions.

      • Wayne 1.1.3

        Kat
        I thought you were sensible enough to know that the main public polls are reputable, and not cynically manipulated as you suggest.

        • Kat 1.1.3.1

          Ok Wayne, the polls are reputable, extremely accurate and in no way is the sampling or timing of publication cynically manipulated. Its all perfectly normal and Colmar Brunton aren’t scratching their heads over this fluctuation in political support from one month to the next. Just as well Santa is coming soon.

        • woodart 1.1.3.2

          if they are getting their results from landlines, thats about as accurate and up to date as listening to shoutback radio, or asking parishioners at your local church. they all have one thing in common. an aging, shrinking conservative audiennce. definitley NOT, an accurate measurement of todays New Zealand…..having a landline phone is so last century(check out how small the white pages in your phonebook is)

        • cleangreen 1.1.3.3

          No no no,

          I was rung several times during “public polls and the questions were set to answer in a negative way against labour.

          So don’t say “public polls are reputable”

          I don’t buy that after being involved in two.

  2. Kat 2

    Yeah right, bogus poll if ever there was one. Nats and their corporate mates putting up a charade before Christmas, they certainly need as much smoke and mirrors as they can muster. Eight more years, at least, for the blue team.

  3. Fireblade 3

    How long is Judith going to wait? She ain’t no spring chicken.

    • Chris T 3.1

      She isn’t stupid

      Why would she go for the leadership ATM?

      • Fireblade 3.1.1

        I agree Chris T.

      • cleangreen 3.1.2

        Chris T/
        “Why would she go for the leadership ATM?”

        Well others have done so before and succeeded.
        And her Chinese masters want action now!!!!!
        Look at the history yourself.

    • Chris 3.2

      Maybe 10 months before the election? Or while it won’t make any difference, perhaps a bit less if she thinks going too early gives her too much time to fuck things up?

    • Rapunzel 3.3

      While it’s well known that the National Party will swallow even dead rats to try and regain the benches what is unknown yet is how “palatable” Collins is to the other MPs, there is a sense of quite a division within on being able to find a leader tolerable to a majority of them.

    • Fireblade 3.4

      Judith Collins can’t make a run at the leadership while National are polling well. Her time has passed.

      • Chris 3.4.1

        Perhaps for now, but it’ll return. Might depend on the timing decided by Jami-Lee, and whether Bridges gets swept up in the fiery wake of Bennett’s imminent departure.

    • Ffloyd 3.5

      ‘Aint no spring chicken.’ Lol. Moŕe like an ‘old boiler’

  4. Dennis Frank 4

    I think your point re margin of error is important re CB. However the mismatch with the recent internal polling of both parties is peculiar – particularly the one that had Labour ten points ahead. Suspect polling techniques perhaps..

    • McFlock 4.1

      Maybe that’s just how the balls roll at given times for given samples.

      • Dennis Frank 4.1.1

        TVNZ’s political reporter commented on the news that it’s a record high for National in opposition. That’s got to be significant. Gives the lie to the ebbing support for National that the recent trend of internal polls of both parties has suggested.

        Or else we start to consider different polls as fishing expeditions in different social ecosystems – in which case presenting them as representative of the whole country is delusional.

        • Kat 4.1.1.1

          “Or else we start to consider different polls as fishing expeditions in different social ecosystems – in which case presenting them as representative of the whole country is delusional”

          Precisely.

        • McFlock 4.1.1.2

          Pretty much.

          Polls (and their qualitative cousins, the focus group) are estimates based on small samples that you try to make reflect the entire population you are interested in. Then you have a choice of how you statistically deal with non-responses (if you just keep going until you get a thousand respondents, your data is skewed towards people who like to respond to surveys), or non-representative samples (so do you weight the responses so that one person is essentially answering for all Dunedinites or whatever?).

          They’re probably not too far off at any given point (although any given point could well be complete bunk), but overanalysing the whys and wherefores is a fool’s errand.

          It’s sort of a zen thing, more about the flow than the leaves being washed downriver.

        • cleangreen 4.1.1.3

          100% correct Dennis.

    • alwyn 4.2

      “particularly the one that had Labour ten points ahead”.
      What poll was that one?
      And were you allowed to see the numbers or do you believe everything your heroes tell you?
      I don’t remember any public poll in the last 15 or so years that had Labour 10 points ahead of National.

      Claims made about what the “internal party polls” are of course a total load of old rope. They are whatever the party leader says they are. Anyone else remember how Little released one set of figures and claimed he was on the way to heaven?
      No this poll, although no doubt very pleasing to the Labour Party, merely shows the effect on minor parties of entering Government.
      New Zealand First and the Green parties are simply continuing their slide out of sight into the under 5% and out category.
      They certainly won’t be missed.

  5. Anne 5

    Will transfer my comment on OM to here:

    It indicates the voters are back into contradictory mode. On the one hand the Nats have increased their vote (looks like at NZ First’s expense) and Labour is down from the last CB poll, yet the economic outlook under the Lab led govt has increased. Can’t have it both ways voters.

    We haven’t been seeing too much of the Prime Minister of late. I don’t know whether that is intentional or whether the media have decided to ignore her. Whatever… it shows in the outcome of this poll.

  6. Alan 6

    Threat of even more taxation = this result. Please let labour campaign for the next election on a raft new taxes

    • cleangreen 6.1

      Alan,

      Well National selling all our assets was a tax wasn’t it?

      • DJ Ward 6.1.1

        Technically no. Tax built the asset then the tax is recovered by selling the asset. Then it’s spent. You were not taxed twice. It’s no different technically to putting your taxes in a bank account, then years later withdrawing it to spend.

        That’s no argument justifying asset sales.

        You could be correct for anything the Crown didn’t use tax for creating or buying like land. The Maori might however have a point in saying it was a discriminatory tax imposed on them resulting in loss of land.

  7. Exkiwiforces 7

    WTF, it confirms opinion polls are like assholes as everyone has one.😉

  8. Ankerrawshark 8

    You mentioned Nats internal polls Mickey on open mike. What were the polls saying then?

    We would still win if an election were held tomorrow.

    But I am gobsmacked really………..

  9. ianmac 9

    Funny that the Coalition dropped 5 points but National went up by only 3%.
    Margin of error?
    I suppose the Opposition’s relentless attack on Coalition management assisted by unprecidented media reporting of the attacks might wear away support.

    • Rounding. Act up 1%.

      • ScottGN 9.1.1

        Still not enough to deliver any more actual bodies in the parliament than Rimmer though.

    • alwyn 9.2

      But you forget ACT.
      They had a spectacular rise to 1% so the right wing coalition actually rose by 4% didn’t they?
      On these numbers of course, and given the way the Green Party always drop in an actual election from their poll numbers, that ACT number may become significant.
      They will be the only minor party in the House after all.

      • ScottGN 9.2.1

        The Greens Election Day results and polling beforehand aren’t that dissimilar these days. The final Colmar Brunton before the last election had them on 7% and their result on the the day was about 6.5%. Historic under and/or over estimation of their poll position has largely been eradicated as they have matured as a political party in NZ.

        • Pete George 9.2.1.1

          Not correct.

          The final Colmar poll before the 2017 election (15–19 Sep 2017) had Greens on 8%. Newshub (13–20 Sep 2017) had them on 7%. Both are rounded to whole numbers.

          Greens got 6.3% in the election.

          • ScottGN 9.2.1.1.1

            That poll also had National on 46% and they got 44.4% on election night. There’s a reason they have a margin of error.

        • James 9.2.1.2

          “As they have matured as a political party”

          Matured? This year they wanted to reclaim the word cunt.

          That’s why they are heading to sub 5%

      • McFlock 9.2.2

        you forget that green poll numbers almost always increase before an election, with last time being the exception.

        Whereas lab and nat can swing wildly up or down whenever they change leadership, lol

    • cleangreen 9.3

      ianmac 100%

      The figures don’t stack up.

      Labour drop 3% while national goes up 5%

      and Pete George’s answer was silly, ” Act was rounded up?????

      Fiction was a driving force behind this poll.
      We need amendments to our “opinion polls” as India are doing now.

      This week the Labour coalition government are looking are reviewing a new bill to possibly amending our political polls also.

      This rouge poll is a ‘timely’ wake up call to the government.

      India banned these early polls because they were so fictitious and inaccurate.

      https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/opinion/should-opinion-polls-be-banned

      The Election Commission of India has advocated suitable amendments in section 126 of the Representation of the People Act, 1951 to regulate opinion polls
      Opinion polls do often suspiciously look like paid attempts to influence opinion. During the Uttar Pradesh election earlier this year, Hindi daily newspaper Jagran had published a poll in violation of ECI guidelines.But while the digital editor of the newspaper was shown the door, no further detail has emerged about the role money may have played in the transgression. “Opinion and exit polls by themselves, like all research, are useful to gain insight into what people think of the policies, programmes and products. But the Election Commission opposes these polls because it strongly suspects their integrity, having encountered the ugly reality of ‘paid news’…” wrote in February the former Chief Election Commissioner SY Quraishi.

  10. Chris T 10

    Not sure why it suddenly has to be a rogue poll

    There have only been 2 polls out of 12 with Labour ahead

    They were 8 months apart and both also Colmar Brunton polls

    • Kat 10.1

      Its not the poll, its the timing of the rogue poll. It means nothing for Labour or the coalition govt in the flow of things but a lot more for National and especially Simon Bridges coming up to BBQ time.

      • Chris T 10.1.1

        It starting to look like it may mean a lot to Winston and the Greens tbf

        The Greens might want to grow a pair by election

        • BM 10.1.1.1

          The Greens might want to grow a pair by election

          The greens are a female-dominated SJW party now, there’s absolutely no chance of that happening.

          They will back Ardern to the bitter end, no matter what she does because she’s female even if it puts the Greens out of power.

        • Anne 10.1.1.2

          You could say the Greens are conserving their energy for next year when the results of this year’s preparations start to become apparent. You could say the same goes for Labour. On the other hand you could say their preparations might not turn out to be enough. In fact you could say anything and it might turn out to be right – or wrong. 😕

          • Puckish Rogue 10.1.1.2.1

            I predict, at some point in time, National will be back in power 🙂

            • Ankerrawshark 10.1.1.2.1.1

              Yes PR…… 2035 would suit

            • Michelle 10.1.1.2.1.2

              When they find a mate or any one desperate enough to be their friend so far no one hooray ! national have no friends ask yourself why

          • Incognito 10.1.1.2.2

            This is the first time the Green Party is sitting at the table, so to speak, and it must be a very steep learning curve for them. It’ll be interesting when James Shaw introduces the Zero Carbon Bill next year (February?) as that will be the ’nuclear test’ for this COL. I’m hoping for bold leadership where political capital will be put on the table. That capital won’t be from the Green Party so much …

            • Anne 10.1.1.2.2.1

              I was being tongue in cheek @ 10.1.1.2 of course. The Govt. doesn’t seem worried at this point because they know that next year will be delivery time when the voters start to see the bang for their bucks. At the moment there’s not a lot to see and the Nats are taking advantage of the hiatus and fear-mongering as hard as they can. It probably was inevitable there would be a drop in support.

        • mauī 10.1.1.3

          The Greens had a pair and decided to drop them as they were the traitorous Clendon and Graham.

    • James 10.2

      Every poll that has national in front is a rogue according to some on the left.

      • BM 10.2.1

        The disconnect with reality is quite concerning.

        • James 10.2.1.1

          More amusing than anything.

        • Ankerrawshark 10.2.1.2

          The reality the labour and greens would be governing alone without NZ first if this poll was correct? Sounds good to me not sure how it works for you right wingers though

          • Chris T 10.2.1.2.1

            Wonder what would happen if the Maori Party got a seat?

            48-48

            Another election?

          • Puckish Rogue 10.2.1.2.2

            First we take out NZFirst, then we take out the Greens and then Jude anoints herself President for life and we all live happily ever after

          • James 10.2.1.2.3

            Sits fine because it’s not an election and with nzf under 5% and greens looking at going under – it’s looking positive.

          • BM 10.2.1.2.4

            46% with an unpopular leader, the only way is up.

            • Ankerrawshark 10.2.1.2.4.1

              All that is hypothetical. All we know is this poll result and on this we win you lose eat that

            • Incognito 10.2.1.2.4.2

              46% with two equally unpopular ‘preferred’ leaders, the only way is the Exit.

        • Incognito 10.2.1.3

          Which reality are you referring to?

      • Incognito 10.2.2

        Yup, they’re known in the field of pollsters as rogus polls and they are their worst nightmare, professionally speaking.

    • Rapunzel 10.3

      ANd yet who leads the govt. This adds up to a coalition govt now and still will tomorrow that is how it is. IMHO nothing shifts the core that will vote for the National Party pretty much regardless especially in Bridges own electorate for example. What will likely have an effect in 2020 is how NZ workers and families have fared, anything that reverses gains for them might finally see turn-out improve rather than risk any return of the National Party.

  11. Puckish Rogue 11

    Aww yeah the plans all coming together nicely. National stays in touch in the 40s with a deeply unpopular leader which allows Jude the Magnificient to, with great humility, take over and propel National to the win!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzT6bN8lqLw

  12. stunned mullet 12

    Straw poll at my house came out at 100% agreement that all politicians are cunts and Morrissey Breen felates coelacanths.

    [lprent: And mullet are only good for eviscerating and smoking. However I think that they are also not bad fertilizer when left outside. Perhaps you need to read the policy again and remind yourself that I also enjoy being a barbarian when someone gives me an excuse to shed civilised behaviour. The difference being that I have an axe. ]

    • ScottGN 12.1

      The koolaid went down well then but I hope those were reusable straws? There’s a planet to consider.

  13. James 13

    When Judith finally makes her move – National will head over 50%

  14. Ankerrawshark 14

    It is seriously hard for me to fathom why anyone would w want Judith or national. The former who lied about her visit/dinner out with original and a Chinese boarder official while on business for the NZ govt, who twittered fake news from a fake website, who thought it was a good idea for prisoners to be double bunked.

    National who allowed the country to go to the dogs re health, housing education, pike river betrayal. Complete inaction on climate change.

    • James 14.1

      Goes both ways I guess.

      I can’t understand why anyone would vote for Jacinda.

      Or worse the greens – I find them moronic (but hey now I get to use the word cunt).

      • Robert Guyton 14.1.1

        Hey, James – I’m a “green” – do you fine me…moronic?

        • James 14.1.1.1

          Robert- I find the party themselves moronic.

          You on the other hand live the life of what (I perceive) a greenie is about. Actual green issues which you care about deeply and walk the walk on (so to speak).

          I think you are a dick – and mildly annoying – but I have a lot of respect for what you actually do both personally and for the community.

          • Robert Guyton 14.1.1.1.1

            You think I’m a “dick”, James?
            What do you mean by that? (kinda curious…)
            (Oh and btw, thanks for the other things you say – I’m grateful for those comments).

            • James 14.1.1.1.1.1

              You know exactly what I mean about you being a dick – if you don’t read your own comments and it should become clear.

              And you’re welcome on the other comments – credit where credit is earned.

    • Chris T 14.2

      The govt haven’t exactly been covering themselves in glory though

      They have lumbered into one mess after another.

      You have Shane Jones just sounding like an idiot

      The Greens being limp

      Ardern being the opposite of Open and Transparent

      Kiwibuild is a joke and they haven’t really done anything as there is an impression Winston is running the show (false or not)

      • Ankerrawshark 14.2.1

        600000 people getting free or cheaper access to gps, economy going well, business confidence up, repairing Middlemore, new hospital for Dunedin, plan for Auckland transport including rail link to airport, income boast for lowest earners, income boast for nurses 600 new seniors for schools, minimum wage increase, significant wage increase for hospital cleaners, more state houses being built, more houses being built through KiwiBuild warm dry homes bill, prison numbers coming down due to one small change made by kelvin Davis, negotiating better pay for teachers, recruiting teachers from overseas to help with shortage……..planting more trees (very important in light of climate change) making it harder for overseas investors who don’t live here to buy our homes………….what’s not to love. God they’ve worked hard. And I am sure there’s a lot I have omitted

        • mike 14.2.1.1

          its about house prices

        • The Chairman 14.2.1.2

          Perhaps a number of those polled were unhappy with Labour not delivering on those $8 doctors visits they announced last year.

          • Ankerrawshark 14.2.1.2.1

            I doubt that chairman. 600000 nzders just got free or cheaper gp visits in the last week

            • The Chairman 14.2.1.2.1.1

              Yes, but the price for community card holders isn’t going to be capped at $8 as Labour initially announced. Thus, I’m guessing some will be disappointed Labour failed to deliver on that.

          • Robert Guyton 14.2.1.2.2

            Eeyore! Eeyore!!

  15. Chris T 15

    Wonder how much influence our friendly drug lord had to it, assuming it was after

    • BM 15.1

      Wait till the migrant compact gets signed and Australia says they’ll limit access to New Zealanders.

      • James 15.1.1

        Or when labour try to implement a capital gains tax.

        • Ankerrawshark 15.1.1.1

          It’s the greedy pricks who will squeal about the cgt and prevent it from being implemented. Tell me you don’t seriously think that it’s ok to earn untaxed income off a rental property do you? Really? If so what sort of selfishness is that

          • James 15.1.1.1.1

            Well I look forward to labour campaigning on it.

            • Ankerrawshark 15.1.1.1.1.1

              Do you really look forward to a cgt James? You said on an earlier thread you are not rich. Doesn’t it bother you that people who own rental properties can make tax free easy money for doing nothing?

              Really forget politics for a minute. If all parties wanted to introduce a cgt would you argue against it?

              • James

                I said – if you try reading a little bit better that I look forward to labour campaigning on it.

                Not that I was looking forward to a cgt.

                Why? Because it will guarantee a national win.

                • Ankerrawshark

                  Yes James I realized you said labour campaigning in cgt rather than the capital gains tax itself, but that is because potentially it could lose them votes.

                  But I was curious to know your real opinion of a cgt. Do you think that capital gains on a rental property should be taxed or not.

          • Naki man 15.1.1.1.2

            ” Tell me you don’t seriously think that it’s ok to earn untaxed income off a rental property do you? Really? If so what sort of selfishness is that”

            Rental profit is taxed

        • Incognito 15.1.1.2

          Ruled out, but nice try.

    • Ankerrawshark 15.2

      that will blow over

  16. Ankerrawshark 16

    Tax payer funded appeals would have happened anyway

    Possible better if we had of stuck with initial decision and waited for him to put a foot wrong, then he’s out.

    I noticed no commenter has addressed my points against Judith c or what coalition have achieved

    • Chris T 16.1

      repairing Middlemore – Was happening anyway

      new hospital for Dunedin -Was happening anyway

      plan for Auckland transport including rail link to airport – Meh. Yay for a few people in Auckland

      income boast for lowest earners – National were upping the tax brackets

      income boast for nurses – Fair call

      600 new seniors for schools – Don’t know what this is

      minimum wage increase – Has been raised every year

      significant wage increase for hospital cleaners – Fair call

      more state houses being built – Where?

      more houses being built through KiwiBuild – Lol

      prison numbers coming down due to one small change made by kelvin Davis – Don’t know enough about it

      negotiating better pay for teachers, recruiting teachers from overseas to help with shortage – They are all striking

  17. DJ Ward 17

    The drug dealing Foriegner isn’t a good look for Labour. That was a point off and a point gain to National on its own.
    JLR is a blip but the police investigation has the potential to hurt National.

    The Greens have some power and the public are not seeing green policy or transformational initiatives. All we get is “old white Men”, the pay gap, and women are all victims and princesses. The damage done at the last election is just being reinforced by its MPs. If the low income male voter jumps to Labour they could lose 2% as they possible just have on the numbers.

    NZF is slowly waiting for the leader to pass silently in its sleep. I do see if NZF drops out at the next election a party forming around someone like Shane Jones and Northland voters possibly giving him an electorate seat.

    The danger in a result like this is if National remains high and the minor parties drop out.

    Steady as she goes by Labour will slowly rot away at these numbers.

    To me Labour has put the knife in the greens. It prefers that all those votes went to them. It gets to do its feminist agenda but gets the more pushy and radical to the public Green Feminists to be the front person.

    Labour needs to realise that as a party with broad appeal that it doesn’t have broad support. It needs to look at the demographic that it fails to attract. It may be that group is more likely right thinking but it’s the swing voters that are important. That group is men. It’s a +5 and -5 group.

    Labour needs to do something inspirational, that transforms society in a positive way. That we have, and continue to lead the world in our social conscious.

    Legalise the male pill you fools.

    • Cinny 17.1

      “Legalise the male pill you fools”…. cause that’s going to win an election… LMFAO !!!!

      • DJ Ward 17.1.1

        You would be surprised at how many males want this to happen. 40% of babies born were not with the consent of the male or unplanned by both. That’s an enormous % of men affected by not having contraception. Many having there lives ruined as the females actions are forced on them.

        Imagine if women didn’t have contraception but men did. Labour announcing it would be First Nation on the planet to allow a female contraceptive pill.
        Imagine if the public new it was available but Labour refused to make it Legal.
        Ask yourself how many % of female swing voters that could give Labour, or cost Labour.

        If 2% is winning or loosing ask yourself if I’m wrong. I don’t think I am in that scenario.
        Men vote for us and we will legalise the male pill.

        National announces it will legalise the male pill.
        Labours Feminist leader laughs, LMFAO !!!, saying men don’t deserve it.

        By the way why do you think men having contraceptive choice is funny?
        Do you feel threatened by women loosing power and control over men’s bodies?

        • te reo putake 17.1.1.1

          Men do have contraceptive choice, DJ. They’re called condoms. And they’re not only good for avoiding unwanted pregnancies, they help stop disease. PS, my kids were unplanned. They didn’t ruin my life, they were the best thing that ever happened to me.

          • DJ Ward 17.1.1.1.1

            You got to stay in the relationship with your children then. Many men don’t. I was forced into a marriage and my brother was permanently banned from having any relationship with his child because of “unplanned” pregnancy, and not being in a relationship with the mother during pregnancy.

            Condoms are not contraception. They are no more effective than the withdrawal method, in trials and in real life. When you say use a condom you pretty much tell a guy to hope. It is not contraception.

            Why the objection to males getting a very effective and very safe pill. Health wise female contraception should be banned in comparison.

            Should we ban female contraception, and tell them to use condoms.

            Why do you hate men?

            You have to hate men if you don’t want them to have contraception.

    • Andre 17.2

      “Legalise the male pill you fools.”

      There’s a male pill that actually works but isn’t legal? Tell me more. Some links would be really useful. Preferably to reputable sources, like peer-reviewed studies and/or news outlets with journalists that put their name to their reporting.

  18. Puckish Rogue 18

    Jeepers one poll and suddenly the lefties are worried…not that I blame them 😉

    • Ankerrawshark 18.1

      If I am worried it’s because for me the stakes are high. I have a very comfortable life, but saw the damage done under national. Btw see my what the coalitions has achieved comments. I want everyone to have a decent wage, a reasonable place to live and a chance at home ownership. I want everyone to have decent health and dental care. And I want a government who is prepared to tackle climate change. For me this is a no brainer.

      Btw Chris t just looked up increases to minimum wage and under national went up 50cenrs per hour every year. That’s bull shit. By 2020 how I read it is that it will be $20 an hour.

      Politics isn’t a game for me. It’s about serious stuff that impacts people’s lives

  19. Ankerrawshark 19

    Where is your evidence about Middlemore? The Nats sat on that rotting sewerage infested buildings and the boards were threatened not to bring it up.

    Sentosa special education coordinators to help kids with learning difficulties and take pressure off teachers..

    Labour’s family package more favourable than national s tax cuts.

    Wage rises for lowest incomes more significant under labour and big companies = no 90 day trials and tea breaks

    More state houses, Auckland Porirua and other places. They have also sorted the meth debacle that saw many state house tenants lose their homes plus many others pay for unnecessary testing…
    KiwiBuild will add to housing supply are you against enabling young first homebuyers to be able to buy their own home when there rates of home ownership have dropped. I believe it will help and if it doesn’t at least labour have tried. Unlike national who left it to the market and denied there was a housing crisis….

    What did National do….oh yeah we had a flag referendum and opened our doors to a lot of low skilled low wage migrants

    Yes teachers are striking. Nine years of neglect to catch up on

  20. millsy 20

    At this stage, Labour needs to not fall below 40%.

    • alwyn 20.1

      Hey, give them a break.
      Suggest something that might happen.
      “At this stage, Labour needs to not fall below 30%.”
      They’ll go under 40 by March next year. Staying above 30 should be easy, as long as they can keep Cullen under wraps and can continue to hide the details of the agreement with Tsar Winston.
      If that comes out they are dead.

      Actually it is just a poll and is totally irrelevant to the outcome of the next election. They can put that off till about November 2020. I wonder who will be the Labour Party leader then? I’m afraid Ardern will crack .

  21. Bill 21

    When the main parties are “much of a muchness” – chasing that mythical middle ground and running or proposing economic management from the same play book, then what’s to be expected besides pointless too-ing and fro-ing in what might be best viewed as “fickle polls of least unpopularity”.

    Bridges runs around with his foot in his mouth while the sheen comes off Ardern? That or whatever. But the end result is that NZ might as well have a televised coin flip to choose a government.

    God knows, none of the main parties actually give a toss about most of the people who live in the country, so hey….

  22. Ankerrawshark 22

    That’s great bill you keep going with that. Not sure where it’s going to take you though. Why not oss a coin on Election Day and vote for whoever they are all so alike.

    Meanwhile I rather get off my fat arse and try and make whatever change I can, like the kids in your post earlier today

    • Chris 22.1

      “Not sure where it’s going to take you though.”

      A place where Labour wakes up and understands what it’s been doing for the past 35 years and does something about it – that’s where I hope continuing to tell the truth takes us.

  23. infused 23

    jesus christ you bunch of bed wetters.

    it’s one poll. all good when the shoe is on the other foot eh.

    explains why the col is trying to reduce min party support to 4%

  24. Cinny 24

    Look out simon, judith is coming, James will be buzzing.

    Any Christmas BBQ’s happening over the next few weeks?

    Dang simon won’t be happy with his personal result.

    right wingers will be all over the TS talking it up.

    Meanwhile who will be the new nat leader, they would be stupid as to keep simon.

    • James 24.1

      Simon has nothing to worry about as yet (but yes Judith is coming).

      The personal numbers are nothing – who cares. Jacinda is way out in front on that count – but still can’t out poll national with bridges.

      Judith will take her time – prob a year out of the election. If national arnt polling for a win she will take over then.

      As said before she will lift national. Greens (god willing) will be gone burger.

      I can wait. Sitting at 46% in opposition when the gloss is only going to come off the col is a great place to be.

      • Cinny 24.1.1

        Fascinating watching judith circling in, it really is, she’s like a carnivorous animal.

        • Chris T 24.1.1.1

          Basic facts are facts

          Unless the party vote nosedives why would Collins launch a leadership bid?

          It would be dim

        • Puckish Rogue 24.1.1.2

          Jude is the ultimate team player so she would only step in and take leadership if, and thats a very big if, she was convinced by everyone else it was for the good of the party, nay the good of the country

          Shes good like that

  25. WeTheBleeple 25

    Soft left swing voters had enough of the Terf and Lady Santa styled bullshit lately and turned. Never were going to vote green, now regretting voting left at all.

    Simultaneously climate change reality sneaking in to small proportion of public shifting to Green.

    Labour plodding along exciting nobody losing soft voters to nats and realists to greens.

    A theory.

  26. Sanctuary 26

    Polling in NZ is remarkable for only one thing – the stability of the two blocks, with a slight edge given to whoever is able to collect up the coalition partners. So this poll changes nothing, Labour and the Greens could govern alone, it is unlikely NZ First won’t make the threshold and National still have no mates.

    New Zealand is a deeply divided society with a deeply polarised electorate. One one side you have a bunch of neoliberal plutocrats, rural exceptionalists and an “aspirational” boss class enablers helped a huge constituency of foreign residents who come from authoritarian countries and who only understand politics in terms of leveraging favour in a one party state.

    On the other hand you have everyone else.

    these blocks live separately from each other as much as possible. Every thirty – forty years they erupt into violent conflict with each other (1913, 1951, 1982) before a new consensus around the nature of the truce occurs. NZ politics is remarkably cyclical and predictable in the long term.

    • Dennis Frank 26.1

      I agree with your first paragraph, and the first sentence in the second, not the rest. You have only identified four clans within the National tribe. I ought to leave it to contributors here who speak for the Nats to fill in the missing spaces, but I will point out that small business folk have been a major political category since the 19th century. Hard to miss, I would have thought.

      I recently reported here a Guardian writer’s tribal analysis of the Tories, as exposed by Brexit. A similar analysis here would be informative. Just another sign of political scientists pontificating instead of doing research.

  27. SaveNZ 27

    Every time Labour’s housing policy is in the limelight aka a LOT of footage of Twyford and his construction buddies constructing up a storm, Labour takes a dive, likewise all the new regulations on rental properties that don’t take any considerate of the practical reality of the situation of NZ with old housing and new housing that also has considerable issues like leaks. The only reason Labour limped in for the election is that Jacinda’s very cool spat with Richardson took over the media critically before the election and took away from Labour’s housing policy which is very similar to the Natz strategy that nobody liked either and Labour and NZ First both publicly said they would reduce immigration.

    I have no idea why Labour think that their housing policy of construction welfare and asset sell offs to private or PPP/SOE interests and increase pollution and large debt for infrastructure for housing and roads and transport and new wastewater solutions will excite Kiwi’s when it is obvious that Kiwis don’t want asset sell offs and have wealth transferred to new citizens who might be criminals (Sroubek) or make it clear that they don’t want to live in NZ (Thiel) or just meet someone online and marry them https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/immigration-fails-deport-man-paid-10k-nz-citizen-he-married-11-days-after-first-meet or an employment scam https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/108136698/immigration-nz-fields-more-tip-offs-scams-than-it-can-manage (yes all that occurred under the Natz but Labour and NZ First and even Greens campaigned on REDUCING immigration but have failed to deliver and seem incapable of stoping the scams or reducing immigration). All the scams are at the expense of those that worked and paid taxes in NZ for years and not much left in the kitty the way things are going for future generations.

    Even the teachers shortages apparently can be solved by more immigration under Labour and NZ First. Like National they only have one tool in their tool box that they use for every solution, which is more immigration and more debt to pay for more immigration.

    Many are asking what is the point of having more burger King workers and hammer hands and fruit pickers and satellite families needing hospital and schools which apparently is solved by a Ponzi of more migrant staff for the hospital and schools and you guessed it, then adding to the dept burden by needing more housing for the new migrant workers who are essentially serving the last batch of migrants coming to NZ but paid for by existing citizens. The Ponzi continues….

    Most of the public can see Kiwibuild will never work and don’t want all these new houses that Kiwi’s don’t want to live in or can’t afford… so the profits are really going to the construction companies and infrastructure debt to current and future ratepayers and residents aka those who live in the communities that are constantly screwed over by these ill thought of, often badly constructed housing or business projects that are not what NZ want for housing or business aka gigantic Tegal chicken farms, sand mining or what have you.

    Housing does not bring prosperity, decent living standards including recreation just as going to the beach or lakes (not polluted), being able to live comfortably on your income free of stress, feeling safe and feeling that you have a say in your community is what people want. Sadly less and less of that happening in NZ.

    labour are better than National but they need to read Animal Farm because their policies and remedies seem very similar to National in many areas.

    • Sanctuary 27.1

      Labour’s housing policy is the ultimate distallation of it’s degeneration into a neoliberal managerialist project and the political decadence that lies at the heart of it’s ideological crisis. It’s housing policy is market-led tinkering when bold state action and reform is required. It is timid middle class welfare when it is the low income who are crying out for decent housing. It is “managing better” when the existing system which delivered the crisis demands sweeping away.

      Labour’s ideological banality is writ large in government. It is doing nothing to use it’s power in government to enact policies that empower, organise and mobilise it’s base. Instead, it has cow-towed to the lords of the neoliberal consensus wherever they are found. It hasn’t got the guts to stand up to them and it hasn’t got the ideological coherence to mount a sustained defense of any serious socialist reform.

      Sure, it does some good things within the confines of the business as usual straight jacket it happily accepts. But ultimately that doesn’t butter enough parsnips for Labour to survive for much longer.

      Jacindamania papered over the death throes of Labour. They are doing nothing that indicates they understand this and are using this breathing space to reform the party and re-discover a clear mission.

      Within a decade NZ Labour will suffer the same fate as the continental social democrats, mark my words. Not that the core technocrats and professional politicians at the centre of Labour’s elite cadres will care. 12-15% of the vote will keep 14-18 of them in MP jobs for the remaining life of the party and then they’ll seamlessly transition into the neoliberal private sector, where they’ll be handsomely renumerated as a reward for their service to the status quo.

      • Rae 27.1.1

        That will be because the stupid believe they can vote things like climate change away. The world is very stupid at the moment.

        • Sanctuary 27.1.1.1

          Labour’s response to fuel prices just goes to show what ideologically empty and reactive cowards they are.

          Instead of making a cogent case from within a socialist ideological framework for reducing carbon emissions , explaining how recent fuel price rises are but a taste of what is going to happen when the climate change panic sets in, and laying out a coherent program of conversion of our economy to an electric future with more and much better PT, better rail, etc etc it simply fell apart in the face of the talkback Taliban and thrashed about trying to blame fuel companies, announcing a facile and toothless “inquiry” as their only do-nothing something.

          • Rae 27.1.1.1.1

            I agree, however, the actual left vote is not strong enough yet to support them doing that. If it was the Greens would be through the roof. The strong vote is among older people, older people are by and large, more conservative (I say that even though I am well gone 60 and not conservative).
            The left have to get out and vote, vote, vote as if their lives depend on it, because they do.

          • SaveNZ 27.1.1.1.2

            love your imagery there, Sanctuary aka

            “degeneration into a neoliberal managerialist project and the political decadence that lies at the heart of it’s ideological crisis.”
            “market-led tinkering”
            “confines of the business as usual straight jacket it happily accepts. But ultimately that doesn’t butter enough parsnips for Labour to survive for much longer.”
            “Jacindamania papered over the death throes of Labour”

            “talkback Taliban”
            “announcing a facile and toothless “inquiry” as their only do-nothing something.”

            The only thing I’m less in agreement of your post is that Labour’s policy benefits the middle class. In my view Labour policy are a reduction of the middle class born of that country, which neoliberalism is reducing around the western world. Aka our government policy is benefiting the middle classes of China and India in particular at present who are able to buy another citizenship in NZ – at the expense of the middle class of NZ born who are paying for the change over.

  28. Darien Fenton 28

    It is one poll. Yes theres some warning signs. The biggest warning for me is there are 46% of the country who apparently prefer a National Government. So you can talk all you like about how Labour isn’t left enough and how what is needed is a socialist revolution, but until you convince that 46% who are not signing up to leftist policies its all just blah blah ; and NZ First really needs to have a think about their current strategy. It seems to be turning off more people than winning them over.

    • Enough is Enough 28.1

      I think NZ First’s basic problem is they have not backed up their rhetoric.

      What would a Winston Peters in opposition have said about Karel Sroubek. The anti-immigration champion would have been all over this. Instead he has supported the initial decision made by the Minister and been silent ever since.

      Whether you support the decision or not, Some of Winston’s core constituency will be feeling very let down by him.

      • Wayne 28.1.1

        A lot of truth in that. Winston’s support for Sroubek will have been absolutely baffling to his supporters.

        If he wants to get over 5%, he is going to have to be a lot tougher on Labour and the Greens. He put them in govt, he can therefore play hard ball on the things that absolutely matter to his supporters.

        Basically crime, immigration, more things for Superannuiants, some traditional infrastructure (hydropower, rail for the regions).

        Not talk about it, do it.

        For instance he simply should demand electrification Auckland to Wellington, no studies, just do it. Same for rail to the North Port. Him and Shane should be turning the sod in early 2020, with large work crews getting on with the job well before the election.

  29. Ankerrawshark 29

    Darien 100%

  30. tsmithfield 30

    Even though I am on the right side of the political spectrum, I do agree with Micky with respect to this poll. Not much can be drawn from one poll in isolation.

    What will be interesting will be whether a trend starts to develop.

    For instance, Jacinda has dropped in popularity in this poll. Will this develop into a trend, or is this just margin of error stuff? If a downward trend were to develop, then this would be a concern for Labour because their popularity was intrinsically linked in the sudden surge in support for Labour at the last election.

    What will happen with the minor parties? Will they continue to trend downwards below the 5% margin, or will they bounce back up above the 5% threshold in the next poll? If Labour’s support parties can’t get over the 5% barrier, then it is essentially a first past the post race which National would win if they were to remain more popular than Labour.

    Will National continue to hold/grow its support base? If so, then that would be a worry for Labour because at the moment this will be achieved despite having a relatively unpopular leader. If National decided to change its leader to a more publicly appealing choice, the Labour may have reason to be concerned.

  31. rod 31

    Let’s face it, national supporters would vote for a one eyed, three legged Donkey if it had a blue flag sticking out of it’s arse.

  32. Brutus Iscariot 32

    i) Midterm polls like this mean nothing
    ii) they could reflect more recent Labour faux pas than genuine Nat popularity
    iii) if anything, they’re positive for the Left in that they give Bridges a reprieve
    iv) the argument to lower the MMP threshold does not hinge around propping up Greens and NZF.

  33. R.P Mcmurphy 33

    I think it is just simon dallow, mathew hooton and colmar brunton trying to give the nationals party the kiss of life when the beast is moribund.

  34. Mr Marshy 34

    Lol … results are hard to understand are they … not really. The honeymoon is truly over. Cue silly socialist myopic comments about ‘Soimon’ ….

  35. CHCOff 35

    I’m happy for the exclusive NZLast conglomerate to keep winning the opinion polls and headlines for the next nine years, as long as their no holds barred rorting economy is put on ice out of NZ Govt.

    NZ1st!

  36. George 36

    Anyone read Barry Soper in the Herald today? Without mentioning the Colmar Brunton poll he basically asserted it to be horse shit. Now as I see it, when one of the most vocal public supporters of your party starts to call you out in public you are screwed.

  37. Richard@Downsouth 37

    Ive said this a hundred times… if you don’t ask the same people each time, a poll is flawed… lets say they ask 1000 people… somehow magically 250 people support ACT… headlines are ‘Wow ACT climbs in the polls’, yet a week later ACT polls way lower because different people were polled… what changed about ACT’s popularity? probably nothing

    Then you have how people were polled, where, at what time… if you are asking people in expensive suits around the outside of parliament im sure there would be a good right leaning poll…

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  • The bewildering world of Chris Luxon – Guns for all, not no lunch for kids
    .“$10 and a target that bleeds” - Bleeding Targets for Under $10!.Thanks for reading Frankly Speaking ! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.This government appears hell-bent on either scrapping life-saving legislation or reintroducing things that - frustrated critics insist - will be dangerous and likely ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    3 days ago
  • Expert Opinion: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.
    It hardly strikes me as fair to criticise a government for doing exactly what it said it was going to do. For actually keeping its promises.”THUNDER WAS PLAYING TAG with lightning flashes amongst the distant peaks. Its rolling cadences interrupted by the here-I-come-here-I-go Doppler effect of the occasional passing car. ...
    3 days ago
  • Manufacturing The Truth.
    Subversive & Disruptive Technologies: Just as happened with that other great regulator of the masses, the Medieval Church, the advent of a new and hard-to-control technology – the Internet –  is weakening the ties that bind. Then, and now, those who enjoy a monopoly on the dissemination of lies, cannot and will ...
    3 days ago
  • A Powerful Sensation of Déjà Vu.
    Been Here Before: To find the precedents for what this Coalition Government is proposing, it is necessary to return to the “glory days” of Muldoonism.THE COALITION GOVERNMENT has celebrated its first 100 days in office by checking-off the last of its listed commitments. It remains, however, an angry government. It ...
    3 days ago
  • Can you guess where world attention is focussed (according to Greenpeace)? It’s focussed on an EPA...
    Bob Edlin writes –  And what is the world watching today…? The email newsletter from Associated Press which landed in our mailbox early this morning advised: In the news today: The father of a school shooter has been found guilty of involuntary manslaughter; prosecutors in Trump’s hush-money case ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago
  • Further integrity problems for the Greens in suspending MP Darleen Tana
    Bryce Edwards writes – Is another Green MP on their way out? And are the Greens severely tarnished by another integrity scandal? For the second time in three months, the Green Party has secretly suspended an MP over integrity issues. Mystery is surrounding the party’s decision to ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Jacqui Van Der Kaay: Greens’ transparency missing in action
    For the last few years, the Green Party has been the party that has managed to avoid the plague of multiple scandals that have beleaguered other political parties. It appears that their luck has run out with a second scandal which, unfortunately for them, coincided with Golraz Ghahraman, the focus ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    3 days ago
  • Bernard’s Dawn Chorus with six newsey things at 6:46am for Saturday, March 16
    TL;DR: The six newsey things that stood out to me as of 6:46am on Saturday, March 16.Andy Foster has accidentally allowed a Labour/Green amendment to cut road user chargers for plug-in hybrid vehicles, which the Government might accept; NZ Herald Thomas Coughlan Simeon Brown has rejected a plea from Westport ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • How Did FTX Crash?
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    PunditBy Brian Easton
    4 days ago
  • Elections in Russia and Ukraine
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    4 days ago
  • Bernard’s six stack of substacks at 6pm on March 15
    TL;DR: Shaun Baker on Wynyard Quarter's transformation. Magdalene Taylor on the problem with smart phones. How private equity are now all over reinsurance. Dylan Cleaver on rugby and CTE. Emily Atkin on ‘Big Meat’ looking like ‘Big Oil’.Bernard’s six-stack of substacks at 6pm on March 15Photo by Jeppe Hove Jensen ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Buzz from the Beehive Finance Minister Nicola Willis had plenty to say when addressing the Auckland Business Chamber on the economic growth that (she tells us) is flagging more than we thought. But the government intends to put new life into it:  We want our country to be a ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • National’s clean car tax advances
    The Transport and Infrastructure Committee has reported back on the Road User Charges (Light Electric RUC Vehicles) Amendment Bill, basicly rubberstamping it. While there was widespread support among submitters for the principle that EV and PHEV drivers should pay their fair share for the roads, they also overwhelmingly disagreed with ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Government funding bailouts
    Peter Dunne writes – This week’s government bailout – the fifth in the last eighteen months – of the financially troubled Ruapehu Alpine Lifts company would have pleased many in the central North Island ski industry. The government’s stated rationale for the $7 million funding was that it ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Two offenders, different treatments.
    See if you can spot the difference. An Iranian born female MP from a progressive party is accused of serial shoplifting. Her name is leaked to the media, which goes into a pack frenzy even before the Police launch an … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    4 days ago
  • Treaty references omitted
    Ele Ludemann writes  – The government is omitting general Treaty references from legislation : The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last Government in a bid to get greater coherence in the public service on Treaty ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • The Ghahraman Conflict
    What was that judge thinking? Peter Williams writes –  That Golriz Ghahraman and District Court Judge Maria Pecotic were once lawyer colleagues is incontrovertible. There is published evidence that they took at least one case to the Court of Appeal together. There was a report on ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Bernard's Top 10 @ 10 'pick 'n' mix' for March 15
    TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: Climate Scorpion – the sting is in the tail. Introducing planetary solvency. A paper via the University of Exeter’s Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.Local scoop: Kāinga Ora starts pulling out of its Auckland projects and selling land RNZ ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The day Wellington up-zoned its future
    Wellington’s massively upzoned District Plan adds the opportunity for tens of thousands of new homes not just in the central city (such as these Webb St new builds) but also close to the CBD and public transport links. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Wellington gave itself the chance of ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 15-March-2024
    It’s Friday and we’re halfway through March Madness. Here’s some of the things that caught our attention this week. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday Matt asked how we can get better event trains and an option for grade separating Morningside Dr. On Tuesday Matt looked into ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    4 days ago
  • That Word.
    Something you might not know about me is that I’m quite a stubborn person. No, really. I don’t much care for criticism I think’s unfair or that I disagree with. Few of us do I suppose.Back when I was a drinker I’d sometimes respond defensively, even angrily. There are things ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to March 15
    Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:PM Christopher Luxon said the reversal of interest deductibility for landlords was done to help renters, who ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Labour’s policy gap
    It was not so much the Labour Party but really the Chris Hipkins party yesterday at Labour’s caucus retreat in Martinborough. The former Prime Minister was more or less consistent on wealth tax, which he was at best equivocal about, and social insurance, which he was not willing to revisit. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #11 2024
    Open access notables A Glimpse into the Future: The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change, Kuhlbrodt et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society: In the year 2023, we have seen extraordinary extrema in high sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and in ...
    5 days ago
  • Melissa remains mute on media matters but has something to say (at a sporting event) about economic ...
     Buzz from the Beehive   The text reproduced above appears on a page which records all the media statements and speeches posted on the government’s official website by Melissa Lee as Minister of Media and Communications and/or by Jenny Marcroft, her Parliamentary Under-secretary.  It can be quickly analysed ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • The return of Muldoon
    For forty years, Robert Muldoon has been a dirty word in our politics. His style of government was so repulsive and authoritarian that the backlash to it helped set and entrench our constitutional norms. His pig-headedness over forcing through Think Big eventually gave us the RMA, with its participation and ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Will the rental tax cut improve life for renters or landlords?
    Bryce Edwards writes –  Is the new government reducing tax on rental properties to benefit landlords or to cut the cost of rents? That’s the big question this week, after Associate Finance Minister David Seymour announced on Sunday that the Government would be reversing the Labour Government’s removal ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Geoffrey Miller: What Saudi Arabia’s rapid changes mean for New Zealand
    Saudi Arabia is rarely far from the international spotlight. The war in Gaza has brought new scrutiny to Saudi plans to normalise relations with Israel, while the fifth anniversary of the controversial killing of Jamal Khashoggi was marked shortly before the war began on October 7. And as the home ...
    Democracy ProjectBy Geoffrey Miller
    5 days ago
  • Racism’s double standards
    Questions need to be asked on both sides of the world Peter Williams writes –   The NRL Judiciary hands down an eight week suspension to Sydney Roosters forward Spencer Leniu , an Auckland-born Samoan, after he calls Ezra Mam, Sydney-orn but of Aboriginal and Torres Strait ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • It’s not a tax break
    Ele Ludemann writes – Contrary to what many headlines and news stories are saying, residential landlords are not getting a tax break. The government is simply restoring to them the tax deductibility of interest they had until the previous government removed it. There is no logical reason ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • The Plastic Pig Collective and Chris' Imaginary Friends.
    I can't remember when it was goodMoments of happiness in bloomMaybe I just misunderstoodAll of the love we left behindWatching our flashbacks intertwineMemories I will never findIn spite of whatever you becomeForget that reckless thing turned onI think our lives have just begunI think our lives have just begunDoes anyone ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Who is responsible for young offenders?
    Michael Bassett writes – At first reading, a front-page story in the New Zealand Herald on 13 March was bizarre. A group of severely intellectually limited teenagers, with little understanding of the law, have been pleading to the Justice Select Committee not to pass a bill dealing with ram ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on National’s fantasy trip to La La Landlord Land
    How much political capital is Christopher Luxon willing to burn through in order to deliver his $2.9 billion gift to landlords? Evidently, Luxon is: (a) unable to cost the policy accurately. As Anna Burns-Francis pointed out to him on Breakfast TV, the original ”rock solid” $2.1 billion cost he was ...
    5 days ago
  • Bernard's Top 10 @ 10 'pick 'n' mix' for March 14
    TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: Jonathon Porritt calling bullshit in his own blog post on mainstream climate science as ‘The New Denialism’.Local scoop: The Wellington City Council’s list of proposed changes to the IHP recommendations to be debated later today was leaked this ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • No, Prime Minister, rents don’t rise or fall with landlords’ costs
    TL;DR: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said yesterday tenants should be grateful for the reinstatement of interest deductibility because landlords would pass on their lower tax costs in the form of lower rents. That would be true if landlords were regulated monopolies such as Transpower or Auckland Airport1, but they’re not, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Cartoons: ‘At least I didn’t make things awkward’
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Tom Toro Tom Toro is a cartoonist and author. He has published over 200 cartoons in The New Yorker since 2010. His cartoons appear in Playboy, the Paris Review, the New York Times, American Bystander, and elsewhere. Related: What 10 EV lovers ...
    5 days ago
  • Solving traffic congestion with Richard Prebble
    The business section of the NZ Herald is full of opinion. Among the more opinionated of all is the ex-Minister of Transport, ex-Minister of Railways, ex MP for Auckland Central (1975-93, Labour), Wellington Central (1996-99, ACT, then list-2005), ex-leader of the ACT Party, uncle to actor Antonia, the veritable granddaddy ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    5 days ago
  • I Think I'm Done Flying Boeing
    Hi,Just quickly — I’m blown away by the stories you’ve shared with me over the last week since I put out the ‘Gary’ podcast, where I told you about the time my friend’s flatmate killed the neighbour.And you keep telling me stories — in the comments section, and in my ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago
  • Invoking Aristotle: Of Rings of Power, Stones, and Ships
    The first season of Rings of Power was not awful. It was thoroughly underwhelming, yes, and left a lingering sense of disappointment, but it was more expensive mediocrity than catastrophe. I wrote at length about the series as it came out (see the Review section of the blog, and go ...
    6 days ago
  • Van Velden brings free-market approach to changing labour laws – but her colleagues stick to distr...
    Buzz from the Beehive Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden told Auckland Business Chamber members they were the first audience to hear her priorities as a minister in a government committed to cutting red tape and regulations. She brandished her liberalising credentials, saying Flexible labour markets are the ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • Why Newshub failed
    Chris Trotter writes – TO UNDERSTAND WHY NEWSHUB FAILED, it is necessary to understand how TVNZ changed. Up until 1989, the state broadcaster had been funded by a broadcasting licence fee, collected from every citizen in possession of a television set, supplemented by a relatively modest (compared ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Māori Party on the warpath against landlords and seabed miners – let’s see if mystical creature...
    Bob Edlin writes  –  The Māori Party has been busy issuing a mix of warnings and threats as its expresses its opposition to interest deductibility for landlords and the plans of seabed miners. It remains to be seen whether they  follow the example of indigenous litigants in Australia, ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • There’s a name for this
    Every year, in the Budget, Parliament forks out money to government agencies to do certain things. And every year, as part of the annual review cycle, those agencies are meant to report on whether they have done the things Parliament gave them that money for. Agencies which consistently fail to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago

  • Government moves to quickly ratify the NZ-EU FTA
    "The Government is moving quickly to realise an additional $46 million in tariff savings in the EU market this season for Kiwi exporters,” Minister for Trade and Agriculture, Todd McClay says. Parliament is set, this week, to complete the final legislative processes required to bring the New Zealand – European ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago
  • Positive progress for social worker workforce
    New Zealand’s social workers are qualified, experienced, and more representative of the communities they serve, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “I want to acknowledge and applaud New Zealand’s social workers for the hard work they do, providing invaluable support for our most vulnerable. “To coincide with World ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 hours ago
  • Minister confirms reduced RUC rate for PHEVs
    Cabinet has agreed to a reduced road user charge (RUC) rate for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. Owners of PHEVs will be eligible for a reduced rate of $38 per 1,000km once all light electric vehicles (EVs) move into the RUC system from 1 April.  ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    9 hours ago
  • Trade access to overseas markets creates jobs
    Minister of Agriculture and Trade, Todd McClay, says that today’s opening of Riverland Foods manufacturing plant in Christchurch is a great example of how trade access to overseas markets creates jobs in New Zealand.  Speaking at the official opening of this state-of-the-art pet food factory the Minister noted that exports ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    9 hours ago
  • NZ and Chinese Foreign Ministers hold official talks
    Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Wellington today. “It was a pleasure to host Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his first official visit to New Zealand since 2017. Our discussions were wide-ranging and enabled engagement on many facets of New Zealand’s relationship with China, including trade, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago
  • Kāinga Ora instructed to end Sustaining Tenancies
    Kāinga Ora – Homes & Communities has been instructed to end the Sustaining Tenancies Framework and take stronger measures against persistent antisocial behaviour by tenants, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Earlier today Finance Minister Nicola Willis and I sent an interim Letter of Expectations to the Board of Kāinga Ora. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Speech to Auckland Business Chamber: Growth is the answer
    Tēna koutou katoa. Greetings everyone. Thank you to the Auckland Chamber of Commerce and the Honourable Simon Bridges for hosting this address today. I acknowledge the business leaders in this room, the leaders and governors, the employers, the entrepreneurs, the investors, and the wealth creators. The coalition Government shares your ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Singapore rounds out regional trip
    Minister Winston Peters completed the final leg of his visit to South and South East Asia in Singapore today, where he focused on enhancing one of New Zealand’s indispensable strategic partnerships.      “Singapore is our most important defence partner in South East Asia, our fourth-largest trading partner and a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Minister van Velden represents New Zealand at International Democracy Summit
    Minister of Internal Affairs and Workplace Relations and Safety, Hon. Brooke van Velden, will travel to the Republic of Korea to represent New Zealand at the Third Summit for Democracy on 18 March. The summit, hosted by the Republic of Korea, was first convened by the United States in 2021, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Insurance Council of NZ Speech, 7 March 2024, Auckland
    ICNZ Speech 7 March 2024, Auckland  Acknowledgements and opening  Mōrena, ngā mihi nui. Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho.  Good morning, it’s a privilege to be here to open the ICNZ annual conference, thank you to Mark for the Mihi Whakatau  My thanks to Tim Grafton for inviting me ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Five-year anniversary of Christchurch terror attacks
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Lead Coordination Minister Judith Collins have expressed their deepest sympathy on the five-year anniversary of the Christchurch terror attacks. “March 15, 2019, was a day when families, communities and the country came together both in sorrow and solidarity,” Mr Luxon says.  “Today we pay our respects to the 51 shuhada ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Speech for Financial Advice NZ Conference 5 March 2024
    Speech for Financial Advice NZ Conference 5 March 2024  Acknowledgements and opening  Morena, Nga Mihi Nui.  Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho. Thanks Nate for your Mihi Whakatau  Good morning. It’s a pleasure to formally open your conference this morning. What a lovely day in Wellington, What a great ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Early visit to Indonesia strengthens ties
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters held discussions in Jakarta today about the future of relations between New Zealand and South East Asia’s most populous country.   “We are in Jakarta so early in our new government’s term to reflect the huge importance we place on our relationship with Indonesia and South ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • China Foreign Minister to visit
    Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters has announced that the Foreign Minister of China, Wang Yi, will visit New Zealand next week.  “We look forward to re-engaging with Foreign Minister Wang Yi and discussing the full breadth of the bilateral relationship, which is one of New Zealand’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Minister opens new Auckland Rail Operations Centre
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has today opened the new Auckland Rail Operations Centre, which will bring together KiwiRail, Auckland Transport, and Auckland One Rail to improve service reliability for Aucklanders. “The recent train disruptions in Auckland have highlighted how important it is KiwiRail and Auckland’s rail agencies work together to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Celebrating 10 years of Crankworx Rotorua
    The Government is proud to support the 10th edition of Crankworx Rotorua as the Crankworx World Tour returns to Rotorua from 16-24 March 2024, says Minister for Economic Development Melissa Lee.  “Over the past 10 years as Crankworx Rotorua has grown, so too have the economic and social benefits that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government delivering on tax commitments
    Legislation implementing coalition Government tax commitments and addressing long-standing tax anomalies will be progressed in Parliament next week, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The legislation is contained in an Amendment Paper to the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill issued today.  “The Amendment Paper represents ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Significant Natural Areas requirement to be suspended
    Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard has today announced that the Government has agreed to suspend the requirement for councils to comply with the Significant Natural Areas (SNA) provisions of the National Policy Statement for Indigenous Biodiversity for three years, while it replaces the Resource Management Act (RMA).“As it stands, SNAs ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government classifies drought conditions in Top of the South as medium-scale adverse event
    Agriculture Minister Todd McClay has classified the drought conditions in the Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts as a medium-scale adverse event, acknowledging the challenging conditions facing farmers and growers in the district. “Parts of Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts are in the grip of an intense dry spell. I know ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government partnership to tackle $332m facial eczema problem
    The Government is helping farmers eradicate the significant impact of facial eczema (FE) in pastoral animals, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced.  “A $20 million partnership jointly funded by Beef + Lamb NZ, the Government, and the primary sector will save farmers an estimated NZD$332 million per year, and aims to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • NZ, India chart path to enhanced relationship
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has completed a successful visit to India, saying it was an important step in taking the relationship between the two countries to the next level.   “We have laid a strong foundation for the Coalition Government’s priority of enhancing New Zealand-India relations to generate significant future benefit for both countries,” says Mr Peters, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Ruapehu Alpine Lifts bailout the last, say Ministers
    Cabinet has agreed to provide $7 million to ensure the 2024 ski season can go ahead on the Whakapapa ski field in the central North Island but has told the operator Ruapehu Alpine Lifts it is the last financial support it will receive from taxpayers. Cabinet also agreed to provide ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Govt takes action to drive better cancer services
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
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    6 days ago
  • Govt takes action to drive better cancer services
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Work begins on SH29 upgrades near Tauriko
    Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Work begins on SH29 upgrades near Tauriko
    Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Fresh produce price drop welcome
    Lower fruit and vegetable prices are welcome news for New Zealanders who have been doing it tough at the supermarket, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. Stats NZ reported today the price of fruit and vegetables has dropped 9.3 percent in the 12 months to February 2024.  “Lower fruit and vege ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Statement to the 68th United Nations Commission on the Status of Women
    Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all.  Chair, I am honoured to address the sixty-eighth session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Speech to the 68th United Nations Commission on the Status of Women (CSW68)
    Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all.  Chair, I am honoured to address the 68th session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government backs rural led catchment projects
    The coalition Government is supporting farmers to enhance land management practices by investing $3.3 million in locally led catchment groups, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced. “Farmers and growers deliver significant prosperity for New Zealand and it’s vital their ongoing efforts to improve land management practices and water quality are supported,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Speech to Auckland Business Chamber
    Good evening everyone and thank you for that lovely introduction.   Thank you also to the Honourable Simon Bridges for the invitation to address your members. Since being sworn in, this coalition Government has hit the ground running with our 100-day plan, delivering the changes that New Zealanders expect of us. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Commission’s advice on ETS settings tabled
    Recommendations from the Climate Change Commission for New Zealand on the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) auction and unit limit settings for the next five years have been tabled in Parliament, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “The Commission provides advice on the ETS annually. This is the third time the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government lowering building costs
    The coalition Government is beginning its fight to lower building costs and reduce red tape by exempting minor building work from paying the building levy, says Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk. “Currently, any building project worth $20,444 including GST or more is subject to the building levy which is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Trustee tax change welcomed
    Proposed changes to tax legislation to prevent the over-taxation of low-earning trusts are welcome, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The changes have been recommended by Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Committee following consideration of submissions on the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill. “One of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Minister’s Ramadan message
    Assalaamu alaikum. السَّلَام عليكم In light of the holy month of Ramadan, I want to extend my warmest wishes to our Muslim community in New Zealand. Ramadan is a time for spiritual reflection, renewed devotion, perseverance, generosity, and forgiveness.  It’s a time to strengthen our bonds and appreciate the diversity ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Minister appoints new NZTA Chair
    Former Transport Minister and CEO of the Auckland Business Chamber Hon Simon Bridges has been appointed as the new Board Chair of the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) for a three-year term, Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced today. “Simon brings extensive experience and knowledge in transport policy and governance to the role. He will ...
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