Latest Colmar Brunton poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:21 pm, December 2nd, 2018 - 189 comments
Categories: Economy, greens, Judith Collins, labour, national, nz first, Politics, polls, Simon Bridges - Tags:

The latest Colmar Brunton poll result has been released and to be honest the results are rather difficult to understand.

National is up 3 to 46%. This does not accord with recent internal polling of the parties.

ACT is up to 1%. The Greens are on 5% and NZ First is on 4%.

Simon Bridges is on 7% as preferred leader and Judith Collins is on 6%.  Watch out Simon …

And people are more confident about the economy, reflecting some very good economic news that the country has had lately.  Normally this sort of result favours the incumbent Government.

It is a strange result and very similar to the last poll result with movements mostly being within the margin of error.

Something for everyone to notice but also something to take with a grain of salt.

189 comments on “Latest Colmar Brunton poll”

  1. “This does not accord with recent internal polling of the parties.”

    Have you seen any actual details of internal party polls? Without all the details and polling history party polls are a waste of public time.

    • Kat 1.1

      “Without all the details and polling history party polls are a waste of public time….”

      So are Colmar Brunton polls. But if serves to give some relief to National which is the objective. Labour must be kept out of power “at all costs”.

      • With Labour on 43% it looks nothing like Labour must be kept out of power “at all costs”. It’s a fairly even split in public support.

        • Kat 1.1.1.1

          Do you know for certainty if Labour is on 43% or are you just parroting what Colmar Brunton says.

          • Pete George 1.1.1.1.1

            I know for certainty that Colmar Brunton have published that Labour are on 43% (rounded to a whole number) in their poll with fieldwork conducted 24-28 November. That’s what this post ‘parrots’.

            As with all polls it’s a rough indicator of party support, over the last week.

            If they polled again next week they may or may not get the same result, but there has been nothing significant happen in politics so I doubt it would vary much.

            There’s no point in getting upset over a single poll.

            But I can understand if some people are disappointed that National haven’t crashed after the Jami-Lee Ross debacle. National have weathered a lot of rough times over the last few years, but they mostly only seem to affect a small number of people interested in politics as opposed to the general public.

            • Robert Guyton 1.1.1.1.1.1

              “Pete George” – who cares?

              • cleangreen

                Pete George cares we dont.

                National voters always old onto any sign in ‘the wind’ that they are still relevant.

                After national sold all our assets it’s a wonder gorge and his right wingers aren’t hung for crimes against the state,

                But they took our assets for a peppercorn price and now are screwing us all with these assets services rising costs.

        • Matthew Whitehead 1.1.1.2

          It’s really not. There are 52% of people expressing a voting intention for government parties there, and there are still more for Labour and the Greens than there are for National. There’s no way to swing this as anything but sweet relief after all their bumbling, and all it shows is that the Entire Opposition in One Party is still not knocked out. Give it time.

          It’s not a bad result for the government, but they’ll want to either bolster NZF or have Labour eat their vote entirely.

      • Chris T 1.1.2

        The only 2 polls that have had Labour ahead were CB polls

        Were those “waste of public time” as well?

        • Chris 1.1.2.1

          Perhaps it’s time for your mate Jami-Lee to pull one of the many pins he’s got lined up ready to go? That’ll be sure to put your lot right up there.

          • Rapunzel 1.1.2.1.1

            According to Newshub during the week he is staying on “leave” by advice until into the new year now. I can hear wheels grinding out some alternative outcome, that will only prolong the internal National Party ructions.

      • Wayne 1.1.3

        Kat
        I thought you were sensible enough to know that the main public polls are reputable, and not cynically manipulated as you suggest.

        • Kat 1.1.3.1

          Ok Wayne, the polls are reputable, extremely accurate and in no way is the sampling or timing of publication cynically manipulated. Its all perfectly normal and Colmar Brunton aren’t scratching their heads over this fluctuation in political support from one month to the next. Just as well Santa is coming soon.

        • woodart 1.1.3.2

          if they are getting their results from landlines, thats about as accurate and up to date as listening to shoutback radio, or asking parishioners at your local church. they all have one thing in common. an aging, shrinking conservative audiennce. definitley NOT, an accurate measurement of todays New Zealand…..having a landline phone is so last century(check out how small the white pages in your phonebook is)

        • cleangreen 1.1.3.3

          No no no,

          I was rung several times during “public polls and the questions were set to answer in a negative way against labour.

          So don’t say “public polls are reputable”

          I don’t buy that after being involved in two.

  2. Kat 2

    Yeah right, bogus poll if ever there was one. Nats and their corporate mates putting up a charade before Christmas, they certainly need as much smoke and mirrors as they can muster. Eight more years, at least, for the blue team.

  3. Fireblade 3

    How long is Judith going to wait? She ain’t no spring chicken.

    • Chris T 3.1

      She isn’t stupid

      Why would she go for the leadership ATM?

      • Fireblade 3.1.1

        I agree Chris T.

      • cleangreen 3.1.2

        Chris T/
        “Why would she go for the leadership ATM?”

        Well others have done so before and succeeded.
        And her Chinese masters want action now!!!!!
        Look at the history yourself.

    • Chris 3.2

      Maybe 10 months before the election? Or while it won’t make any difference, perhaps a bit less if she thinks going too early gives her too much time to fuck things up?

    • Rapunzel 3.3

      While it’s well known that the National Party will swallow even dead rats to try and regain the benches what is unknown yet is how “palatable” Collins is to the other MPs, there is a sense of quite a division within on being able to find a leader tolerable to a majority of them.

    • Fireblade 3.4

      Judith Collins can’t make a run at the leadership while National are polling well. Her time has passed.

      • Chris 3.4.1

        Perhaps for now, but it’ll return. Might depend on the timing decided by Jami-Lee, and whether Bridges gets swept up in the fiery wake of Bennett’s imminent departure.

    • Ffloyd 3.5

      ‘Aint no spring chicken.’ Lol. Moŕe like an ‘old boiler’

  4. Dennis Frank 4

    I think your point re margin of error is important re CB. However the mismatch with the recent internal polling of both parties is peculiar – particularly the one that had Labour ten points ahead. Suspect polling techniques perhaps..

    • McFlock 4.1

      Maybe that’s just how the balls roll at given times for given samples.

      • Dennis Frank 4.1.1

        TVNZ’s political reporter commented on the news that it’s a record high for National in opposition. That’s got to be significant. Gives the lie to the ebbing support for National that the recent trend of internal polls of both parties has suggested.

        Or else we start to consider different polls as fishing expeditions in different social ecosystems – in which case presenting them as representative of the whole country is delusional.

        • Kat 4.1.1.1

          “Or else we start to consider different polls as fishing expeditions in different social ecosystems – in which case presenting them as representative of the whole country is delusional”

          Precisely.

        • McFlock 4.1.1.2

          Pretty much.

          Polls (and their qualitative cousins, the focus group) are estimates based on small samples that you try to make reflect the entire population you are interested in. Then you have a choice of how you statistically deal with non-responses (if you just keep going until you get a thousand respondents, your data is skewed towards people who like to respond to surveys), or non-representative samples (so do you weight the responses so that one person is essentially answering for all Dunedinites or whatever?).

          They’re probably not too far off at any given point (although any given point could well be complete bunk), but overanalysing the whys and wherefores is a fool’s errand.

          It’s sort of a zen thing, more about the flow than the leaves being washed downriver.

        • cleangreen 4.1.1.3

          100% correct Dennis.

    • alwyn 4.2

      “particularly the one that had Labour ten points ahead”.
      What poll was that one?
      And were you allowed to see the numbers or do you believe everything your heroes tell you?
      I don’t remember any public poll in the last 15 or so years that had Labour 10 points ahead of National.

      Claims made about what the “internal party polls” are of course a total load of old rope. They are whatever the party leader says they are. Anyone else remember how Little released one set of figures and claimed he was on the way to heaven?
      No this poll, although no doubt very pleasing to the Labour Party, merely shows the effect on minor parties of entering Government.
      New Zealand First and the Green parties are simply continuing their slide out of sight into the under 5% and out category.
      They certainly won’t be missed.

  5. Anne 5

    Will transfer my comment on OM to here:

    It indicates the voters are back into contradictory mode. On the one hand the Nats have increased their vote (looks like at NZ First’s expense) and Labour is down from the last CB poll, yet the economic outlook under the Lab led govt has increased. Can’t have it both ways voters.

    We haven’t been seeing too much of the Prime Minister of late. I don’t know whether that is intentional or whether the media have decided to ignore her. Whatever… it shows in the outcome of this poll.

  6. Alan 6

    Threat of even more taxation = this result. Please let labour campaign for the next election on a raft new taxes

    • cleangreen 6.1

      Alan,

      Well National selling all our assets was a tax wasn’t it?

      • DJ Ward 6.1.1

        Technically no. Tax built the asset then the tax is recovered by selling the asset. Then it’s spent. You were not taxed twice. It’s no different technically to putting your taxes in a bank account, then years later withdrawing it to spend.

        That’s no argument justifying asset sales.

        You could be correct for anything the Crown didn’t use tax for creating or buying like land. The Maori might however have a point in saying it was a discriminatory tax imposed on them resulting in loss of land.

  7. Exkiwiforces 7

    WTF, it confirms opinion polls are like assholes as everyone has one.😉

  8. Ankerrawshark 8

    You mentioned Nats internal polls Mickey on open mike. What were the polls saying then?

    We would still win if an election were held tomorrow.

    But I am gobsmacked really………..

  9. ianmac 9

    Funny that the Coalition dropped 5 points but National went up by only 3%.
    Margin of error?
    I suppose the Opposition’s relentless attack on Coalition management assisted by unprecidented media reporting of the attacks might wear away support.

    • Rounding. Act up 1%.

    • alwyn 9.2

      But you forget ACT.
      They had a spectacular rise to 1% so the right wing coalition actually rose by 4% didn’t they?
      On these numbers of course, and given the way the Green Party always drop in an actual election from their poll numbers, that ACT number may become significant.
      They will be the only minor party in the House after all.

      • ScottGN 9.2.1

        The Greens Election Day results and polling beforehand aren’t that dissimilar these days. The final Colmar Brunton before the last election had them on 7% and their result on the the day was about 6.5%. Historic under and/or over estimation of their poll position has largely been eradicated as they have matured as a political party in NZ.

        • Pete George 9.2.1.1

          Not correct.

          The final Colmar poll before the 2017 election (15–19 Sep 2017) had Greens on 8%. Newshub (13–20 Sep 2017) had them on 7%. Both are rounded to whole numbers.

          Greens got 6.3% in the election.

          • ScottGN 9.2.1.1.1

            That poll also had National on 46% and they got 44.4% on election night. There’s a reason they have a margin of error.

        • James 9.2.1.2

          “As they have matured as a political party”

          Matured? This year they wanted to reclaim the word cunt.

          That’s why they are heading to sub 5%

      • McFlock 9.2.2

        you forget that green poll numbers almost always increase before an election, with last time being the exception.

        Whereas lab and nat can swing wildly up or down whenever they change leadership, lol

    • cleangreen 9.3

      ianmac 100%

      The figures don’t stack up.

      Labour drop 3% while national goes up 5%

      and Pete George’s answer was silly, ” Act was rounded up?????

      Fiction was a driving force behind this poll.
      We need amendments to our “opinion polls” as India are doing now.

      This week the Labour coalition government are looking are reviewing a new bill to possibly amending our political polls also.

      This rouge poll is a ‘timely’ wake up call to the government.

      India banned these early polls because they were so fictitious and inaccurate.

      https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/opinion/should-opinion-polls-be-banned

      The Election Commission of India has advocated suitable amendments in section 126 of the Representation of the People Act, 1951 to regulate opinion polls
      Opinion polls do often suspiciously look like paid attempts to influence opinion. During the Uttar Pradesh election earlier this year, Hindi daily newspaper Jagran had published a poll in violation of ECI guidelines.But while the digital editor of the newspaper was shown the door, no further detail has emerged about the role money may have played in the transgression. “Opinion and exit polls by themselves, like all research, are useful to gain insight into what people think of the policies, programmes and products. But the Election Commission opposes these polls because it strongly suspects their integrity, having encountered the ugly reality of ‘paid news’…” wrote in February the former Chief Election Commissioner SY Quraishi.

  10. Chris T 10

    Not sure why it suddenly has to be a rogue poll

    There have only been 2 polls out of 12 with Labour ahead

    They were 8 months apart and both also Colmar Brunton polls

    • Kat 10.1

      Its not the poll, its the timing of the rogue poll. It means nothing for Labour or the coalition govt in the flow of things but a lot more for National and especially Simon Bridges coming up to BBQ time.

      • Chris T 10.1.1

        It starting to look like it may mean a lot to Winston and the Greens tbf

        The Greens might want to grow a pair by election

        • BM 10.1.1.1

          The Greens might want to grow a pair by election

          The greens are a female-dominated SJW party now, there’s absolutely no chance of that happening.

          They will back Ardern to the bitter end, no matter what she does because she’s female even if it puts the Greens out of power.

        • Anne 10.1.1.2

          You could say the Greens are conserving their energy for next year when the results of this year’s preparations start to become apparent. You could say the same goes for Labour. On the other hand you could say their preparations might not turn out to be enough. In fact you could say anything and it might turn out to be right – or wrong. 😕

          • Puckish Rogue 10.1.1.2.1

            I predict, at some point in time, National will be back in power 🙂

            • Ankerrawshark 10.1.1.2.1.1

              Yes PR…… 2035 would suit

            • Michelle 10.1.1.2.1.2

              When they find a mate or any one desperate enough to be their friend so far no one hooray ! national have no friends ask yourself why

          • Incognito 10.1.1.2.2

            This is the first time the Green Party is sitting at the table, so to speak, and it must be a very steep learning curve for them. It’ll be interesting when James Shaw introduces the Zero Carbon Bill next year (February?) as that will be the ’nuclear test’ for this COL. I’m hoping for bold leadership where political capital will be put on the table. That capital won’t be from the Green Party so much …

            • Anne 10.1.1.2.2.1

              I was being tongue in cheek @ 10.1.1.2 of course. The Govt. doesn’t seem worried at this point because they know that next year will be delivery time when the voters start to see the bang for their bucks. At the moment there’s not a lot to see and the Nats are taking advantage of the hiatus and fear-mongering as hard as they can. It probably was inevitable there would be a drop in support.

        • mauī 10.1.1.3

          The Greens had a pair and decided to drop them as they were the traitorous Clendon and Graham.

    • James 10.2

      Every poll that has national in front is a rogue according to some on the left.

    • Rapunzel 10.3

      ANd yet who leads the govt. This adds up to a coalition govt now and still will tomorrow that is how it is. IMHO nothing shifts the core that will vote for the National Party pretty much regardless especially in Bridges own electorate for example. What will likely have an effect in 2020 is how NZ workers and families have fared, anything that reverses gains for them might finally see turn-out improve rather than risk any return of the National Party.

  11. Puckish Rogue 11

    Aww yeah the plans all coming together nicely. National stays in touch in the 40s with a deeply unpopular leader which allows Jude the Magnificient to, with great humility, take over and propel National to the win!

  12. stunned mullet 12

    Straw poll at my house came out at 100% agreement that all politicians are cunts and Morrissey Breen felates coelacanths.

    [lprent: And mullet are only good for eviscerating and smoking. However I think that they are also not bad fertilizer when left outside. Perhaps you need to read the policy again and remind yourself that I also enjoy being a barbarian when someone gives me an excuse to shed civilised behaviour. The difference being that I have an axe. ]

    • ScottGN 12.1

      The koolaid went down well then but I hope those were reusable straws? There’s a planet to consider.

  13. James 13

    When Judith finally makes her move – National will head over 50%

  14. Ankerrawshark 14

    It is seriously hard for me to fathom why anyone would w want Judith or national. The former who lied about her visit/dinner out with original and a Chinese boarder official while on business for the NZ govt, who twittered fake news from a fake website, who thought it was a good idea for prisoners to be double bunked.

    National who allowed the country to go to the dogs re health, housing education, pike river betrayal. Complete inaction on climate change.

    • James 14.1

      Goes both ways I guess.

      I can’t understand why anyone would vote for Jacinda.

      Or worse the greens – I find them moronic (but hey now I get to use the word cunt).

      • Robert Guyton 14.1.1

        Hey, James – I’m a “green” – do you fine me…moronic?

        • James 14.1.1.1

          Robert- I find the party themselves moronic.

          You on the other hand live the life of what (I perceive) a greenie is about. Actual green issues which you care about deeply and walk the walk on (so to speak).

          I think you are a dick – and mildly annoying – but I have a lot of respect for what you actually do both personally and for the community.

          • Robert Guyton 14.1.1.1.1

            You think I’m a “dick”, James?
            What do you mean by that? (kinda curious…)
            (Oh and btw, thanks for the other things you say – I’m grateful for those comments).

            • James 14.1.1.1.1.1

              You know exactly what I mean about you being a dick – if you don’t read your own comments and it should become clear.

              And you’re welcome on the other comments – credit where credit is earned.

    • Chris T 14.2

      The govt haven’t exactly been covering themselves in glory though

      They have lumbered into one mess after another.

      You have Shane Jones just sounding like an idiot

      The Greens being limp

      Ardern being the opposite of Open and Transparent

      Kiwibuild is a joke and they haven’t really done anything as there is an impression Winston is running the show (false or not)

      • Ankerrawshark 14.2.1

        600000 people getting free or cheaper access to gps, economy going well, business confidence up, repairing Middlemore, new hospital for Dunedin, plan for Auckland transport including rail link to airport, income boast for lowest earners, income boast for nurses 600 new seniors for schools, minimum wage increase, significant wage increase for hospital cleaners, more state houses being built, more houses being built through KiwiBuild warm dry homes bill, prison numbers coming down due to one small change made by kelvin Davis, negotiating better pay for teachers, recruiting teachers from overseas to help with shortage……..planting more trees (very important in light of climate change) making it harder for overseas investors who don’t live here to buy our homes………….what’s not to love. God they’ve worked hard. And I am sure there’s a lot I have omitted

        • mike 14.2.1.1

          its about house prices

        • The Chairman 14.2.1.2

          Perhaps a number of those polled were unhappy with Labour not delivering on those $8 doctors visits they announced last year.

          • Ankerrawshark 14.2.1.2.1

            I doubt that chairman. 600000 nzders just got free or cheaper gp visits in the last week

            • The Chairman 14.2.1.2.1.1

              Yes, but the price for community card holders isn’t going to be capped at $8 as Labour initially announced. Thus, I’m guessing some will be disappointed Labour failed to deliver on that.

          • Robert Guyton 14.2.1.2.2

            Eeyore! Eeyore!!

  15. Chris T 15

    Wonder how much influence our friendly drug lord had to it, assuming it was after

    • BM 15.1

      Wait till the migrant compact gets signed and Australia says they’ll limit access to New Zealanders.

      • James 15.1.1

        Or when labour try to implement a capital gains tax.

        • Ankerrawshark 15.1.1.1

          It’s the greedy pricks who will squeal about the cgt and prevent it from being implemented. Tell me you don’t seriously think that it’s ok to earn untaxed income off a rental property do you? Really? If so what sort of selfishness is that

          • James 15.1.1.1.1

            Well I look forward to labour campaigning on it.

            • Ankerrawshark 15.1.1.1.1.1

              Do you really look forward to a cgt James? You said on an earlier thread you are not rich. Doesn’t it bother you that people who own rental properties can make tax free easy money for doing nothing?

              Really forget politics for a minute. If all parties wanted to introduce a cgt would you argue against it?

              • James

                I said – if you try reading a little bit better that I look forward to labour campaigning on it.

                Not that I was looking forward to a cgt.

                Why? Because it will guarantee a national win.

                • Ankerrawshark

                  Yes James I realized you said labour campaigning in cgt rather than the capital gains tax itself, but that is because potentially it could lose them votes.

                  But I was curious to know your real opinion of a cgt. Do you think that capital gains on a rental property should be taxed or not.

          • Naki man 15.1.1.1.2

            ” Tell me you don’t seriously think that it’s ok to earn untaxed income off a rental property do you? Really? If so what sort of selfishness is that”

            Rental profit is taxed

        • Incognito 15.1.1.2

          Ruled out, but nice try.

    • Ankerrawshark 15.2

      that will blow over

  16. Ankerrawshark 16

    Tax payer funded appeals would have happened anyway

    Possible better if we had of stuck with initial decision and waited for him to put a foot wrong, then he’s out.

    I noticed no commenter has addressed my points against Judith c or what coalition have achieved

    • Chris T 16.1

      repairing Middlemore – Was happening anyway

      new hospital for Dunedin -Was happening anyway

      plan for Auckland transport including rail link to airport – Meh. Yay for a few people in Auckland

      income boast for lowest earners – National were upping the tax brackets

      income boast for nurses – Fair call

      600 new seniors for schools – Don’t know what this is

      minimum wage increase – Has been raised every year

      significant wage increase for hospital cleaners – Fair call

      more state houses being built – Where?

      more houses being built through KiwiBuild – Lol

      prison numbers coming down due to one small change made by kelvin Davis – Don’t know enough about it

      negotiating better pay for teachers, recruiting teachers from overseas to help with shortage – They are all striking

  17. DJ Ward 17

    The drug dealing Foriegner isn’t a good look for Labour. That was a point off and a point gain to National on its own.
    JLR is a blip but the police investigation has the potential to hurt National.

    The Greens have some power and the public are not seeing green policy or transformational initiatives. All we get is “old white Men”, the pay gap, and women are all victims and princesses. The damage done at the last election is just being reinforced by its MPs. If the low income male voter jumps to Labour they could lose 2% as they possible just have on the numbers.

    NZF is slowly waiting for the leader to pass silently in its sleep. I do see if NZF drops out at the next election a party forming around someone like Shane Jones and Northland voters possibly giving him an electorate seat.

    The danger in a result like this is if National remains high and the minor parties drop out.

    Steady as she goes by Labour will slowly rot away at these numbers.

    To me Labour has put the knife in the greens. It prefers that all those votes went to them. It gets to do its feminist agenda but gets the more pushy and radical to the public Green Feminists to be the front person.

    Labour needs to realise that as a party with broad appeal that it doesn’t have broad support. It needs to look at the demographic that it fails to attract. It may be that group is more likely right thinking but it’s the swing voters that are important. That group is men. It’s a +5 and -5 group.

    Labour needs to do something inspirational, that transforms society in a positive way. That we have, and continue to lead the world in our social conscious.

    Legalise the male pill you fools.

    • Cinny 17.1

      “Legalise the male pill you fools”…. cause that’s going to win an election… LMFAO !!!!

      • DJ Ward 17.1.1

        You would be surprised at how many males want this to happen. 40% of babies born were not with the consent of the male or unplanned by both. That’s an enormous % of men affected by not having contraception. Many having there lives ruined as the females actions are forced on them.

        Imagine if women didn’t have contraception but men did. Labour announcing it would be First Nation on the planet to allow a female contraceptive pill.
        Imagine if the public new it was available but Labour refused to make it Legal.
        Ask yourself how many % of female swing voters that could give Labour, or cost Labour.

        If 2% is winning or loosing ask yourself if I’m wrong. I don’t think I am in that scenario.
        Men vote for us and we will legalise the male pill.

        National announces it will legalise the male pill.
        Labours Feminist leader laughs, LMFAO !!!, saying men don’t deserve it.

        By the way why do you think men having contraceptive choice is funny?
        Do you feel threatened by women loosing power and control over men’s bodies?

        • te reo putake 17.1.1.1

          Men do have contraceptive choice, DJ. They’re called condoms. And they’re not only good for avoiding unwanted pregnancies, they help stop disease. PS, my kids were unplanned. They didn’t ruin my life, they were the best thing that ever happened to me.

          • DJ Ward 17.1.1.1.1

            You got to stay in the relationship with your children then. Many men don’t. I was forced into a marriage and my brother was permanently banned from having any relationship with his child because of “unplanned” pregnancy, and not being in a relationship with the mother during pregnancy.

            Condoms are not contraception. They are no more effective than the withdrawal method, in trials and in real life. When you say use a condom you pretty much tell a guy to hope. It is not contraception.

            Why the objection to males getting a very effective and very safe pill. Health wise female contraception should be banned in comparison.

            Should we ban female contraception, and tell them to use condoms.

            Why do you hate men?

            You have to hate men if you don’t want them to have contraception.

    • Andre 17.2

      “Legalise the male pill you fools.”

      There’s a male pill that actually works but isn’t legal? Tell me more. Some links would be really useful. Preferably to reputable sources, like peer-reviewed studies and/or news outlets with journalists that put their name to their reporting.

  18. Puckish Rogue 18

    Jeepers one poll and suddenly the lefties are worried…not that I blame them 😉

    • Ankerrawshark 18.1

      If I am worried it’s because for me the stakes are high. I have a very comfortable life, but saw the damage done under national. Btw see my what the coalitions has achieved comments. I want everyone to have a decent wage, a reasonable place to live and a chance at home ownership. I want everyone to have decent health and dental care. And I want a government who is prepared to tackle climate change. For me this is a no brainer.

      Btw Chris t just looked up increases to minimum wage and under national went up 50cenrs per hour every year. That’s bull shit. By 2020 how I read it is that it will be $20 an hour.

      Politics isn’t a game for me. It’s about serious stuff that impacts people’s lives

  19. Ankerrawshark 19

    Where is your evidence about Middlemore? The Nats sat on that rotting sewerage infested buildings and the boards were threatened not to bring it up.

    Sentosa special education coordinators to help kids with learning difficulties and take pressure off teachers..

    Labour’s family package more favourable than national s tax cuts.

    Wage rises for lowest incomes more significant under labour and big companies = no 90 day trials and tea breaks

    More state houses, Auckland Porirua and other places. They have also sorted the meth debacle that saw many state house tenants lose their homes plus many others pay for unnecessary testing…
    KiwiBuild will add to housing supply are you against enabling young first homebuyers to be able to buy their own home when there rates of home ownership have dropped. I believe it will help and if it doesn’t at least labour have tried. Unlike national who left it to the market and denied there was a housing crisis….

    What did National do….oh yeah we had a flag referendum and opened our doors to a lot of low skilled low wage migrants

    Yes teachers are striking. Nine years of neglect to catch up on

  20. millsy 20

    At this stage, Labour needs to not fall below 40%.

    • alwyn 20.1

      Hey, give them a break.
      Suggest something that might happen.
      “At this stage, Labour needs to not fall below 30%.”
      They’ll go under 40 by March next year. Staying above 30 should be easy, as long as they can keep Cullen under wraps and can continue to hide the details of the agreement with Tsar Winston.
      If that comes out they are dead.

      Actually it is just a poll and is totally irrelevant to the outcome of the next election. They can put that off till about November 2020. I wonder who will be the Labour Party leader then? I’m afraid Ardern will crack .

  21. Bill 21

    When the main parties are “much of a muchness” – chasing that mythical middle ground and running or proposing economic management from the same play book, then what’s to be expected besides pointless too-ing and fro-ing in what might be best viewed as “fickle polls of least unpopularity”.

    Bridges runs around with his foot in his mouth while the sheen comes off Ardern? That or whatever. But the end result is that NZ might as well have a televised coin flip to choose a government.

    God knows, none of the main parties actually give a toss about most of the people who live in the country, so hey….

  22. Ankerrawshark 22

    That’s great bill you keep going with that. Not sure where it’s going to take you though. Why not oss a coin on Election Day and vote for whoever they are all so alike.

    Meanwhile I rather get off my fat arse and try and make whatever change I can, like the kids in your post earlier today

    • Chris 22.1

      “Not sure where it’s going to take you though.”

      A place where Labour wakes up and understands what it’s been doing for the past 35 years and does something about it – that’s where I hope continuing to tell the truth takes us.

  23. infused 23

    jesus christ you bunch of bed wetters.

    it’s one poll. all good when the shoe is on the other foot eh.

    explains why the col is trying to reduce min party support to 4%

  24. Cinny 24

    Look out simon, judith is coming, James will be buzzing.

    Any Christmas BBQ’s happening over the next few weeks?

    Dang simon won’t be happy with his personal result.

    right wingers will be all over the TS talking it up.

    Meanwhile who will be the new nat leader, they would be stupid as to keep simon.

    • James 24.1

      Simon has nothing to worry about as yet (but yes Judith is coming).

      The personal numbers are nothing – who cares. Jacinda is way out in front on that count – but still can’t out poll national with bridges.

      Judith will take her time – prob a year out of the election. If national arnt polling for a win she will take over then.

      As said before she will lift national. Greens (god willing) will be gone burger.

      I can wait. Sitting at 46% in opposition when the gloss is only going to come off the col is a great place to be.

      • Cinny 24.1.1

        Fascinating watching judith circling in, it really is, she’s like a carnivorous animal.

        • Chris T 24.1.1.1

          Basic facts are facts

          Unless the party vote nosedives why would Collins launch a leadership bid?

          It would be dim

        • Puckish Rogue 24.1.1.2

          Jude is the ultimate team player so she would only step in and take leadership if, and thats a very big if, she was convinced by everyone else it was for the good of the party, nay the good of the country

          Shes good like that

  25. WeTheBleeple 25

    Soft left swing voters had enough of the Terf and Lady Santa styled bullshit lately and turned. Never were going to vote green, now regretting voting left at all.

    Simultaneously climate change reality sneaking in to small proportion of public shifting to Green.

    Labour plodding along exciting nobody losing soft voters to nats and realists to greens.

    A theory.

  26. Sanctuary 26

    Polling in NZ is remarkable for only one thing – the stability of the two blocks, with a slight edge given to whoever is able to collect up the coalition partners. So this poll changes nothing, Labour and the Greens could govern alone, it is unlikely NZ First won’t make the threshold and National still have no mates.

    New Zealand is a deeply divided society with a deeply polarised electorate. One one side you have a bunch of neoliberal plutocrats, rural exceptionalists and an “aspirational” boss class enablers helped a huge constituency of foreign residents who come from authoritarian countries and who only understand politics in terms of leveraging favour in a one party state.

    On the other hand you have everyone else.

    these blocks live separately from each other as much as possible. Every thirty – forty years they erupt into violent conflict with each other (1913, 1951, 1982) before a new consensus around the nature of the truce occurs. NZ politics is remarkably cyclical and predictable in the long term.

    • Dennis Frank 26.1

      I agree with your first paragraph, and the first sentence in the second, not the rest. You have only identified four clans within the National tribe. I ought to leave it to contributors here who speak for the Nats to fill in the missing spaces, but I will point out that small business folk have been a major political category since the 19th century. Hard to miss, I would have thought.

      I recently reported here a Guardian writer’s tribal analysis of the Tories, as exposed by Brexit. A similar analysis here would be informative. Just another sign of political scientists pontificating instead of doing research.

  27. SaveNZ 27

    Every time Labour’s housing policy is in the limelight aka a LOT of footage of Twyford and his construction buddies constructing up a storm, Labour takes a dive, likewise all the new regulations on rental properties that don’t take any considerate of the practical reality of the situation of NZ with old housing and new housing that also has considerable issues like leaks. The only reason Labour limped in for the election is that Jacinda’s very cool spat with Richardson took over the media critically before the election and took away from Labour’s housing policy which is very similar to the Natz strategy that nobody liked either and Labour and NZ First both publicly said they would reduce immigration.

    I have no idea why Labour think that their housing policy of construction welfare and asset sell offs to private or PPP/SOE interests and increase pollution and large debt for infrastructure for housing and roads and transport and new wastewater solutions will excite Kiwi’s when it is obvious that Kiwis don’t want asset sell offs and have wealth transferred to new citizens who might be criminals (Sroubek) or make it clear that they don’t want to live in NZ (Thiel) or just meet someone online and marry them https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/immigration-fails-deport-man-paid-10k-nz-citizen-he-married-11-days-after-first-meet or an employment scam https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/108136698/immigration-nz-fields-more-tip-offs-scams-than-it-can-manage (yes all that occurred under the Natz but Labour and NZ First and even Greens campaigned on REDUCING immigration but have failed to deliver and seem incapable of stoping the scams or reducing immigration). All the scams are at the expense of those that worked and paid taxes in NZ for years and not much left in the kitty the way things are going for future generations.

    Even the teachers shortages apparently can be solved by more immigration under Labour and NZ First. Like National they only have one tool in their tool box that they use for every solution, which is more immigration and more debt to pay for more immigration.

    Many are asking what is the point of having more burger King workers and hammer hands and fruit pickers and satellite families needing hospital and schools which apparently is solved by a Ponzi of more migrant staff for the hospital and schools and you guessed it, then adding to the dept burden by needing more housing for the new migrant workers who are essentially serving the last batch of migrants coming to NZ but paid for by existing citizens. The Ponzi continues….

    Most of the public can see Kiwibuild will never work and don’t want all these new houses that Kiwi’s don’t want to live in or can’t afford… so the profits are really going to the construction companies and infrastructure debt to current and future ratepayers and residents aka those who live in the communities that are constantly screwed over by these ill thought of, often badly constructed housing or business projects that are not what NZ want for housing or business aka gigantic Tegal chicken farms, sand mining or what have you.

    Housing does not bring prosperity, decent living standards including recreation just as going to the beach or lakes (not polluted), being able to live comfortably on your income free of stress, feeling safe and feeling that you have a say in your community is what people want. Sadly less and less of that happening in NZ.

    labour are better than National but they need to read Animal Farm because their policies and remedies seem very similar to National in many areas.

    • Sanctuary 27.1

      Labour’s housing policy is the ultimate distallation of it’s degeneration into a neoliberal managerialist project and the political decadence that lies at the heart of it’s ideological crisis. It’s housing policy is market-led tinkering when bold state action and reform is required. It is timid middle class welfare when it is the low income who are crying out for decent housing. It is “managing better” when the existing system which delivered the crisis demands sweeping away.

      Labour’s ideological banality is writ large in government. It is doing nothing to use it’s power in government to enact policies that empower, organise and mobilise it’s base. Instead, it has cow-towed to the lords of the neoliberal consensus wherever they are found. It hasn’t got the guts to stand up to them and it hasn’t got the ideological coherence to mount a sustained defense of any serious socialist reform.

      Sure, it does some good things within the confines of the business as usual straight jacket it happily accepts. But ultimately that doesn’t butter enough parsnips for Labour to survive for much longer.

      Jacindamania papered over the death throes of Labour. They are doing nothing that indicates they understand this and are using this breathing space to reform the party and re-discover a clear mission.

      Within a decade NZ Labour will suffer the same fate as the continental social democrats, mark my words. Not that the core technocrats and professional politicians at the centre of Labour’s elite cadres will care. 12-15% of the vote will keep 14-18 of them in MP jobs for the remaining life of the party and then they’ll seamlessly transition into the neoliberal private sector, where they’ll be handsomely renumerated as a reward for their service to the status quo.

      • Rae 27.1.1

        That will be because the stupid believe they can vote things like climate change away. The world is very stupid at the moment.

        • Sanctuary 27.1.1.1

          Labour’s response to fuel prices just goes to show what ideologically empty and reactive cowards they are.

          Instead of making a cogent case from within a socialist ideological framework for reducing carbon emissions , explaining how recent fuel price rises are but a taste of what is going to happen when the climate change panic sets in, and laying out a coherent program of conversion of our economy to an electric future with more and much better PT, better rail, etc etc it simply fell apart in the face of the talkback Taliban and thrashed about trying to blame fuel companies, announcing a facile and toothless “inquiry” as their only do-nothing something.

          • Rae 27.1.1.1.1

            I agree, however, the actual left vote is not strong enough yet to support them doing that. If it was the Greens would be through the roof. The strong vote is among older people, older people are by and large, more conservative (I say that even though I am well gone 60 and not conservative).
            The left have to get out and vote, vote, vote as if their lives depend on it, because they do.

          • SaveNZ 27.1.1.1.2

            love your imagery there, Sanctuary aka

            “degeneration into a neoliberal managerialist project and the political decadence that lies at the heart of it’s ideological crisis.”
            “market-led tinkering”
            “confines of the business as usual straight jacket it happily accepts. But ultimately that doesn’t butter enough parsnips for Labour to survive for much longer.”
            “Jacindamania papered over the death throes of Labour”

            “talkback Taliban”
            “announcing a facile and toothless “inquiry” as their only do-nothing something.”

            The only thing I’m less in agreement of your post is that Labour’s policy benefits the middle class. In my view Labour policy are a reduction of the middle class born of that country, which neoliberalism is reducing around the western world. Aka our government policy is benefiting the middle classes of China and India in particular at present who are able to buy another citizenship in NZ – at the expense of the middle class of NZ born who are paying for the change over.

  28. Darien Fenton 28

    It is one poll. Yes theres some warning signs. The biggest warning for me is there are 46% of the country who apparently prefer a National Government. So you can talk all you like about how Labour isn’t left enough and how what is needed is a socialist revolution, but until you convince that 46% who are not signing up to leftist policies its all just blah blah ; and NZ First really needs to have a think about their current strategy. It seems to be turning off more people than winning them over.

    • Enough is Enough 28.1

      I think NZ First’s basic problem is they have not backed up their rhetoric.

      What would a Winston Peters in opposition have said about Karel Sroubek. The anti-immigration champion would have been all over this. Instead he has supported the initial decision made by the Minister and been silent ever since.

      Whether you support the decision or not, Some of Winston’s core constituency will be feeling very let down by him.

      • Wayne 28.1.1

        A lot of truth in that. Winston’s support for Sroubek will have been absolutely baffling to his supporters.

        If he wants to get over 5%, he is going to have to be a lot tougher on Labour and the Greens. He put them in govt, he can therefore play hard ball on the things that absolutely matter to his supporters.

        Basically crime, immigration, more things for Superannuiants, some traditional infrastructure (hydropower, rail for the regions).

        Not talk about it, do it.

        For instance he simply should demand electrification Auckland to Wellington, no studies, just do it. Same for rail to the North Port. Him and Shane should be turning the sod in early 2020, with large work crews getting on with the job well before the election.

  29. Ankerrawshark 29

    Darien 100%

  30. tsmithfield 30

    Even though I am on the right side of the political spectrum, I do agree with Micky with respect to this poll. Not much can be drawn from one poll in isolation.

    What will be interesting will be whether a trend starts to develop.

    For instance, Jacinda has dropped in popularity in this poll. Will this develop into a trend, or is this just margin of error stuff? If a downward trend were to develop, then this would be a concern for Labour because their popularity was intrinsically linked in the sudden surge in support for Labour at the last election.

    What will happen with the minor parties? Will they continue to trend downwards below the 5% margin, or will they bounce back up above the 5% threshold in the next poll? If Labour’s support parties can’t get over the 5% barrier, then it is essentially a first past the post race which National would win if they were to remain more popular than Labour.

    Will National continue to hold/grow its support base? If so, then that would be a worry for Labour because at the moment this will be achieved despite having a relatively unpopular leader. If National decided to change its leader to a more publicly appealing choice, the Labour may have reason to be concerned.

  31. rod 31

    Let’s face it, national supporters would vote for a one eyed, three legged Donkey if it had a blue flag sticking out of it’s arse.

    • Dennis Frank 31.1

      Could be worth a try after St Jude fails to convert the heathen. Might just be enough to get reality tv producers interested in making politics entertaining…

      • Puckish Rogue 31.1.1

        Don’t you worry about Jude, she has a plan and it’ll lead to her coronation as PM of NZ

        You’ve all been warned 🙂

        • Andre 31.1.1.1

          Is she getting pregnant?

          • Puckish Rogue 31.1.1.1.1

            Naah that kind of cheap publicity stunt only works for people without anything else going for them so obviously not something Jude would need to bother about 😉

            You should have a read of this though, its quite illuminating

            https://www.nowtolove.co.nz/celebrity/celeb-news/judith-collins-untold-love-story-3142

            • Dennis Frank 31.1.1.1.1.1

              A much better backgrounder than I expected from the WW, maybe the `shallow is good’ rule no longer applies! I liked this from her: “When I was little, I wanted to be an All Black!”

              To me that indicates something even deeper than a natural trans-gender outlook. Politics is a competitive team sport. Suggests she instinctively resonates with that context. Remains to be seen if has what it takes to be more than just a player tho…

        • alwyn 31.1.1.2

          “her coronation as PM of NZ”

          Is she going to follow Napoleon’s example and crown herself?
          I suppose she has a replica of David’s painting of the subject. I gather she has a rather large house which is of course needed as the painting in the Louvre is about 10 metres wide and 6 metres high.
          https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Jacques-Louis_David,_The_Coronation_of_Napoleon.jpg

          Who is going to fill in for the Pope of the time? Travelled all the way from Rome to crown Napoleon and then was ignored at the actual ceremony.

  32. Brutus Iscariot 32

    i) Midterm polls like this mean nothing
    ii) they could reflect more recent Labour faux pas than genuine Nat popularity
    iii) if anything, they’re positive for the Left in that they give Bridges a reprieve
    iv) the argument to lower the MMP threshold does not hinge around propping up Greens and NZF.

  33. R.P Mcmurphy 33

    I think it is just simon dallow, mathew hooton and colmar brunton trying to give the nationals party the kiss of life when the beast is moribund.

  34. Mr Marshy 34

    Lol … results are hard to understand are they … not really. The honeymoon is truly over. Cue silly socialist myopic comments about ‘Soimon’ ….

  35. CHCOff 35

    I’m happy for the exclusive NZLast conglomerate to keep winning the opinion polls and headlines for the next nine years, as long as their no holds barred rorting economy is put on ice out of NZ Govt.

    NZ1st!

  36. George 36

    Anyone read Barry Soper in the Herald today? Without mentioning the Colmar Brunton poll he basically asserted it to be horse shit. Now as I see it, when one of the most vocal public supporters of your party starts to call you out in public you are screwed.

  37. Richard@Downsouth 37

    Ive said this a hundred times… if you don’t ask the same people each time, a poll is flawed… lets say they ask 1000 people… somehow magically 250 people support ACT… headlines are ‘Wow ACT climbs in the polls’, yet a week later ACT polls way lower because different people were polled… what changed about ACT’s popularity? probably nothing

    Then you have how people were polled, where, at what time… if you are asking people in expensive suits around the outside of parliament im sure there would be a good right leaning poll…

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