I'd expect it to be even greater this time, everyone's pretty much had enough and wish it'd be over with. Wouldn't be surprised if there isn't queues the day advance voting opens and if 50% of the vote is cast in the first week.
Don't count your chickens springs to mind……still got a way to go. Is Labour trending down in this poll looks like 10%? Has it been trending down in earlier polls as well? I think extending the election out as far as it was may turn out to be a mistake and we may snatch ……whatever. Hope not. Hope that ACT do not get too many more unless it is at National's expense.
Winston's plugging around, looking for the hot wire that will spark up his party again. ⚡ZAP!⚡NZ1 back on 6% and Labour play them off against the Greens.
Dude has come back from the dead more times than Dracula in the Hammer Horrors. Never write him off until the results have been counted.
Ahem. Don't count his crypt closed until the results have been counted, recounted, certified and the writ returned. Even then he'll rise from the soft dank earth for the next election.
Fantastic single … would occasionally hear it's post-punk (slightly gothic / slightly Kraftwerk) tones emanating from my older Brother's bedroom c 1981. Hint of Dada, whiff of Nosferatu, Dub-influenced feedback & echo effects. Always liked it.
Then again, it did, tragically, play a role in inspiring the rather embarrassing teenage Goth movement … which is a tad unfortunate … deeply depressed, self-involved ex-boarding school creatures obsessed with the morbid & the macabre … still, can’t have everything, I guess.
Well there's always a disturbing Teenage Movement : ) I randomly found that clip years ago when looking for an obscure Fall song I'd heard ….so down the youtube rabbit hole….an hour plus : ) later.
One positive with the ACT support is that they will now get the number of seats their party vote actually entitles them to, not one more than that entitlement via the Epsom rort.
The other is that we will have fun seeing what sort of reality-challenged oddballs follow Seymour into the house.
three in the top nine act candidates are gun owners, who think that fact is important enough to mention in their five line bio's. not much mention of charity work ,, volunteering etc.
that was my point andre. when you have a five line bio to influence voters, you make your intentions clear. obviously christy hasnt thought that through.
Oh, it is even better (or worse, depending on your view) than what woodart said:
You may have seen the announcement yesterday of ACT's first 49 candidates for this year's election. I wanted you to know that we are standing at least eight licenced firearms owners, with more candidates to be announced soon.
That would make the “three in the top nine act candidates [who] are gun owners”:
Nicole McKee
James McDowall
Toni Severin
You are not very good at finding out stuff that you actually don’t want to find out, are you? In other words, you’re bored and wasting our time, which I find excruciatingly boring.
I was just in the middle of writing a Moderation note for you and parking you out of the way for a month. WTF do you think it means when McDowall states this in his Bio:
He has led the development of ACT’s Firearm Policy in the wake of the Government’s 2019 Arms Amendment Act.
And indeed, he is a firearm owner.
So, woodart was pretty correct and you should stop digging your hole, if I were you; it is just about ready.
After starting work as an engineer, the phone rang and David moved to Canada where he worked as a policy analyst for a think tank. During this time he appeared on almost every Canadian media outlet on topics from taxes to taxi regulations.
After returning to New Zealand in 2011, David advised John Banks on the initial policy development for Partnership (or charter) Schools, before the phone rang again for another job in Canada with Reform Party founder Preston Manning.
This is what you call entitlement.
He started his life knowing the right people and has been on the gravy train ever since.
Three weeks to actual polling day but less than a week now until the start of advance voting.
The Electoral Commission thinks 60% of us will vote early this year.
Polls have been predicting a Labour majority for six months. Fighting against that is hard and time is running out for National to try and change the narrative, and they’ve played their so-called trump card, tax cuts, and it hasn’t worked. The absolute fiasco of the alternative budget probably hasn’t filtered right through to the voting public yet either.
There is nothing Collins can do now to get voters to like her (and that includes crocodile tears with farmers like she did last week). Brownlee has had to be hidden in a cupboard somewhere. Some of the more loopy MPs are getting the wrong headlines. There’s a real danger that another 5%+ of their voters could peel off to other parties by the time the election is done. Or maybe just stay home.
Farmer friend 70+ is voting labour this time, hates unions, never voted left strong>anything before in his life. Not only impressed with Adern but thinks Robertson and Hipkins have stepped up.
Farmer parents who pay National subs will be voting Labour this time as well. Their motivation is to give Labout an absolute majority so that they don't have to rely on the Greens.
Some patterns are so clear that they are spin-proof:
1) Swing voters have given up on National. There is no denying that now. Worse still, Collins was put there to shore up the base – and ACT's rise shows she has failed.
2) The Greens and NZF are 2 totally different cases, and commentators who lump them together miss the point. The Winston vote is gone, and the Greens' support endures, because the latter are part of a global movement with deep roots, not some short-term tactical band-aid (amazingly, this is still not understood by pundits who only think in terms of Leader-Parties like Peters, Dunne, Anderton etc).
3) People who are "soft" Labour (ex-Key voters) might be tempted by a centre party if there was one (see 2002), but there isn't, so they realize it's Jacinda or Judith, no avoiding that choice, no fences to sit on. So Labour's vote holds up. Where's it going to go?
4) The David Icke fan club … nothing. Many voters are conservative (as in any democracy), but few Kiwis are fringe fruit loops. Thank you, NZ.
3) People who are "soft" Labour (ex-Key voters) might be tempted by a centre party if there was one (see 2002),
TOP. They're just not polling high enough and without a 'worm turning' debate performance – because they've been locked out of the debates – they're not likely to get the publicity they need to break 5%.
I'd say more like Social Credit as they have policies as a raison etre but the voters assume they don't understand the TOP policies so give them a miss. United Future stood for beige which they did understand.
I'm really curious what's collapsed the NZF vote. Hope we get some research on that at some point. I suspect a combination of things: Labour's handling of the covid response (and taking care of elderly in the process), NZF appearing corrupt, Peters not being on his game and having had health issues. Just hope it all holds and the centre left can get a crack at governing alone.
I think your reasons above are as likely as any, and would add the handbrake aspect – Labour supporters don't want a handbrake, and the National supporters are still stinging from him not choosing National, so more of an enabler for Labour than a handbrake (since without NZF, Labour would not be in government).
Well she was put there either to sure up the base or to mix metaphors, to take the hospital pass and be a blast shield that protected the careers of other leadership aspirants…
I have been told that Eugenie Sage has done an excellent job at Conservation – some good achievements with no cock-ups or even controversy. Tracey Martin has been mentioned as a good performer from NZ First, but that is from some time back. Sometimes all the attention goes to the leaders – we need good competent people supporting them. Offhand, I can't however think of an equivalent National Party MP who was good when they were last in government . . .
“After election day, even if Labour can rule the country by itself, I'd prefer they had the Greens doing something ”
How about this for a start.
1 A progressive tax policy
2 The clean energy plan
3 Safeguarding our marine environment
4 Real animal welfare
5 Sustainable farming
6 Warm secure affordable homes for everyone and that is a human right
7 A real poverty action plan
8 ACC policy
9 Fair balanced broadcasting initiatives
10 Disability policy
11 Drug reform
12 The Green plan for the economy
13 Safe food policy
14 A new approach for community action and support
15 Climate change
16 Youth affairs and transport
17 Chloe Swarbrick , Ricardo Menéndez March
When a party gets the role of Hot New Flavour they get lots of boosting ("on the march!") and very little scrutiny ("but where are they marching to? who's in their army?"). See Dunne/UF 2002.
It's probably too late to expect the media to put ACT under the microscope ("so David, you think gun owners should have military assault rifles, because that's how you voted in Parliament, right? Gonna try and bring back the slaughter weapons?").
We can only hope that when they get into Parliament they show themselves for what they are. And that Seymour enjoys having a caucus as much as Hide did (spoiler: they went feral).
The more seats ACT gets the better though right? They’re taking them off National which is great, but it also increases the likelihood of an unruly ACT party in the next parliament, just like NZ First after the 1996 election. Seymour is going to be so busy managing that caucus of newbies.
I don’t have a problem with any Party or MPs getting into Parliament as long as it doesn’t depend on Epsom-styled dodgy deals, which could be perverting the proper proportionality of NZ Parliament.
I wonder how many Epsomalis will vote for Paora this time.
Interesting to see the media blackout on Advance NZ in the polls. They cannot hide the missing 8% in their graphic though, presumably that is what they are actually on.
Interesting to see the media blackout on Advance NZ in the polls. They cannot hide the missing 8% in their graphic though, presumably that is what they are actually on.
"There's no missing 8%" – Well that is what someone who works for Reid would say…
Well that is what someone who believes in conspiracy theories would say…
or
Well that is what someone who doesn’t independently check out the facts before they spout nonsense would say…
From who? A conspiracy doughnut with an agenda who can't wear a face mask properly? Or the national party whose figures have been proven to be totally trustworthy and free of holes? lol
Or not when you look at the info Newshub have for the others in the article..
New Conservative – 2.1%
NZ First – 1.9%
Maori – 1.5%
TOP – 0.9%
Adding those to the four parties that are going to make it into Parliament is 98.9% so at most Advance NZ could be 1.1% but even that is unlikely given Vision NZ (the Tamaki rabble) weren't mentioned. More likely I would guess is that 1.1% is split between those two (along with any other micro parties not yet accounted for) with none being above 0.9%..
the 'media blackout' of Regress NZ is actually the media not bothering to report on the sideshow with is Te Kahika & Ross. That "party" soaks up a few of the fringe elements but is otherwise pretty irrelevant.
He is still a little man who wants to be a big man, and if Key had not played politics, Rimmer would not even figure.
We have to realise how lucky we are.
Australia will fudge their unemployed figures by not counting 3 out of 4, will sell coal to who ever and community spread of covid will quietly continue until the vaccine.
I have relatives in Melbourne NSW and the Gold Coast, so we hear how it really is.
Help was late and so narrowly focussed many were not assisted.
Labour are not perfect, neither are the Greens, but 66% at least, prefer them as a team.
The world recognises the qualities of Jacinda Ardern and her team, and the qualities of New Zealanders during this crisis.
Now I know some here will say I am biased, well woohoo!!
I think the concept of 'Australia' has been a bit of a mirage during the last few months.Each state and territory has had a different trahectory with the federal governent almost irrelevant. I am almost a defacto resident of Queensland at the moment and in this state with a population similar to NZ, there have only been 6 deaths, and fewer cases than NZ. Life is more or less normal apart from the constant cry to open the borders. SA, Tas., NT, ACT and WA haven't had any community transmission for weeks. The big stand out is Victoria which has made strategic mistakes, which also affected NSW to a much lesser degree. The biggest mistake was not so much the use of private quarantine security guards, but the too slow decision to lock down Melbourne. NZ may have had similar problems with the border but was faster at its response. The big issue hanging over Oz which will transcend the Covid situation will be the climate change bogey. The summer bush fire season hasn't started yet, but there already warnings about a likely stronger cyclone season just to remind Australians that CC hasn't gone away!
The NZPP blackout is likely because their supporters are all Nutters. Sure …vulnerable, mentally deficient, rabbit holers will vote at the fringes of the political spectrum and Billy certainly seems to be scooping up any and all of those who are willing to throw cash into his personal slush "get rich quick" fund. Brian Tamaki must be spewing. LOL
I've just seen Audrey Young opining "With less than one week to go until advance voting starts, the poll would see three frontbenchers ousted, Paul Goldsmith, Michael Woodhouse and Nicola Willis, and 14 other MPs."
I don't necessarily think that will be the case but the scenario would be so lovely. The highlight is the golden Goldsmith possibility.
Maybe Woodhouse can roust up some of hordes anonymous 'homeless men' to ride their white chargers to his rescue.
40% of Green voters (2017) switch to Labour, i.e. 40% of 6.3%, which amounts -2.5%.
4.8% of Labour voters (2017) switch to Greens, i.e. 4.8% of 36.9%, which amounts to +1.8%.
In addition, the Greens may have picked smaller fractions from the other parties and possibly from the undecided voters and there may be some ‘rounding errors’. Without the full report, it is guess work 😉
It could also be that some TOP voters (2% in 2017) , Some Mana voters and even shock some Tory voters (I know people so out of touch they just vote based off their favorite colour ) have gone to green whole a bunch of labour voters who strategically voted green in 2017 have gone back to Labour but haven been replaced with slithers of either or both returning soft greenies from labour or new strategic labour voters.
2 polls inside the past week, both showing pretty much the same. Baring some major calamity you can read the following
National is not going to win the election. Collins has done nothing more than what Bridges or Muller could have done. A swathe of MPs gone and some wondering why they bothered to roll Bridges when they did.
Labour are close to being able to government alone
The Greens will get in.
Act will increase its numbers
Winston First gone
The minor parties like conservative usefully wasting some of the right wing vote and others like TOP mopping up a bit.
The Regress NZ party shows up, just, and unless Northlanders all smoke a huge amount of green on election day Bill Te Kahika has about as much chance of winning his seat as North Harbour has of winning the Mitre10 Cup. And their other “co founder” might be facing some time in jail post election, having himself discovered North Harbour probably had MORE chance than he did of holding his seat.
The thing to ponder I guess is who will replace Collins post election and how long will it take.
It's easy to forget that National leaders who lost have stuck around for a long while after the election. Shipley 1999, English 2002, Brash 2005. On average, they lasted about a year before a new leader took over.
The problem is that the next leader has to fight the 2023 election, otherwise they just keep playing musical chairs. And they can't give Luxon the leadership before he's even sat down. So the loser has to be a caretaker until the new caucus is ready for the change. Hard to imagine Judith embracing that role.
Jones won't save Winston First. I believe he will have a respectable showing though.
The potential turn up might be the Maori Party getting a seat or 2. Not expecting it but won't be surprised if it happens.
And what of the small parties fortunes after the election.
I expect the largest of the small parties, National, to continue.
Cannot see TOP going much longer. There heyday has been and gone with Morgan.
I would expect the Brian Tamaki party might also quickly fold. They tried before and quickly flopped and disappeared.
The Conservatives also had their Zenith before Colin Craig was shown to be a complete drop kick. They might decide to hang around though, at least until National gets its shit together and gathers those voters back into the fold.
The Maori Party, if they fail to win a seat will find it hard but might just decide to continue building for another tilt at 2023.
Winston First might simply wither away. Not sure Winnie will have another start from scratch in him but you should not write him off. I cannot see a 'fragments of Winston' party, if he quit, surviving if not in parliament.
The irrelevant Regressives might try and survive post election however one of their leaders might need to do that work from inside a cell block and the other will probably find another tin foil hat issue to crusade on.
So post election I would predict only National, Maori and Conservative parties continuing on, and maybe Winston First.
Asked what numbers their internal polling is suggesting, Brownlee said "around about the 40 percent mark".
We should not presume to doubt the gospel according to Gerry. They were 40, now 30. So in fact it's National who are down 10 points in this poll. According to them, anyway.
If only there was a better way of finding out which party voters really support. Oh, hang on, there was … and it was due to happen last week. Judith wanted it delayed – so it was.
Yeah, couple of good points there. Nats on 40 was wishful thinking, and the delay of a month to give them a fighting chance hasn't helped so far.
Fighting their way out of a paper bag seems surprising hard. Centrists remain unimpressed. The apparent preference for JC as Nat leader that persisted in polling for quite a while seems to have been a chimera.
Too early to call a Labour landslide? Perhaps, but I'll go there anyway. Only thing that can stop it coming now is some kind of a surprise that changes mass perceptions significantly. Dirty tricks brigade must be doing serious head-scratching…
I was curious to see what those in the kiwibog are making of the poll news. Looks like denial, trying to talk up a 5% Nat rise and 10% Labour drop, plus some who are being realistic. You get mirror-image bias of course, such as all the blathering that Tova is prejudiced against National – which nicely balances all the comments you get here that she's prejudiced against Labour.
A guide to sussing out the redneck vote:
I know someone who is voting New Conservative because he hates both Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins, and he thinks David Seymour is too short and acts like a little puppy. So obviously lots of weighing up of policies has gone into his voting decisions.
Jacinda may be polling well but I still think that it is pathetic that she will not say what she is voting on cannabis when she has been open on medicinal cannabis, abortion and euthanasia.
The Greens' policy in the 2017 campaign was to legalise. They had to settle for a referendum because NZF (and some in Labour) wouldn't have provided the numbers in Parliament.
If Labour and the Greens win the expected majority in 2020, they could have left it to Parliament. But now they can't (politically, realistically). They gambled and will probably lose.
A referendum in an election campaign is inevitably overshadowed. Jacinda made a hard-headed call to prioritise the Labour vote. The essential quandary is: how many MPs is it worth losing, for the sake of a "Yes" vote?
I think her answer would be "none". It's a shame, it's a missed opportunity, but it was effectively decided by the confidence and supply deal back in 2017. Coulda, shoulda … didn't.
So you think the Greens should not have pushed this issue until conditions were perfect? We could wait forever. Fuck, Labour promised a referendum in the 1984 election!
They gambled on a referendum, and polling around 2017 suggested a 50-50 chance.
But again … a referendum at the same time as a general election is certain to be overshadowed. There was far more coverage for the far more trivial flag referendum, because it was between elections. Sorry, but being aware of that is a really basic requirement for getting the win. Build a campaign, a coalition. Where are the events, the coverage, the faces, the whole visibility of a campaign? It's not there (and Covid is a factor, but not the only one).
Yep, we've had significant backsliding in recent months and the latest poll showing support for the proposed law is down to a third of the electorate suggests two thirds prefer the black market to fund gangs instead of liberating the oppressed minority.
That's mainstreamers for you. Full of shit. Pretend to believe in civil rights, but vote for closet fascism (Nat voters) and closet stalinism (Lab voters).
I couldn’t agree more. Acquiescing to NZFirst’s demand for a referendum was pretty shortsighted and dumb. If we get a no vote then the issue is shelved for the foreseeable future. Labour and the Greens should have played a smarter more long term game. A Labour/Green coalition has always been a possibility for 2020. They could have just waited a bit and legislated decriminalisation like Trudeau did in Canada via a confidence vote.
I might have more sympathy for the demands that Jacinda lend some of her star power to the yes campaign if it wasn’t for the fact that, Helen Clark aside, the yes campaign has been a total joke. Whoever was in charge of the yes vote campaign clearly couldn’t organise a lie down in a bloody mortuary. So you’ll end up with the result you deserve and it’s a shame because legalisation is a no-brainer.
Hey Dennis maybe stop castigating voters for not doing what you think they should do. And concentrate your ire on the bloody useless yes campaign organisers. I know Covid hasn’t helped but it has been been one of the the most inept referendum campaigns you’ll ever see. Saved only by the considerable effort Helen Clark has put in to rescue it from itself.
I do agree with you Scott – casting my mind back to the MMP campaign, it wasn't just Rod Donald's leadership, it was collective dynamism to create a better political path to the future for Aotearoa. I get no credit for that because I didn't help (dirty politics by leftists within the Greens had alienated me by then).
I note ACT or Twirker Party promises a lot. but arent they just a alternative for people who dont want Judith Collins but want National Govt.? I never heard any true costings from Twirker Party [ ACT] . Seymour is just full of talk.
As for Green Party after them refusing to sign any other projects off unless they got there Green School. For that and holding Govt to ransom they are better off out of Govt and lets hope there Support falls below 5% so they no longer get into Parliament.
After all Greens are just Glorified protesters.
[Good morning, Steve. You seem to be new here so here’s some advice on basic rules of this site. Please stick to the facts and don’t try to create some BS narrative to suit your thinking. FYI, Parties don’t sign off on Government decisions, not even the Green Party. I highly recommend you read this site’s Policy before you comment again. Have a nice day, Steve – Incognito]
Some truth can be taken from Steve's comment I think. The mention of Greens being Glorified Protesters is so true. If it wasn't for Green protesting about environment matters for decades, we would still be slumping round knuckle-dragging some distance away from Square One.
So I and all thoughtful others Glorify the Greens for being the great people who have stuck with the mahi, along with most Maori aiming at kaitiaki roles, through the thick and thin for so long.
The act that Seymour is best known for is twerking, not twirking. So Twirker Party isn't a fair description, unless twirking is yet another bizarre behaviour I haven't heard of.
Judith Collins doesn't see RMA reform as a complex problem. Just repeal the whole Act and it's job done.
And she will also get rid of those pesky water quality rules that Labour brought in. They simply prevent farmers doing whatever they want to our rivers.
We might do well to bear in mind that this latest Reid Research poll was largely conducted before the Leaders' Debate (Fieldwork: Sep 16-23) / Leaders' Debate Sep 22. (Vast majority of fieldwork would've been over by final day).
You never know, Judith's highly theatrical pouting & eye-rolling might just've won back many a faint Nat heart.
What about the money or the bag inducement? How many days after the money got dangled as a lure did those defecting centrists have to consider returning to National before the polling ceased?
It looks like the ploy was a total failure, eh? But if enough centrists are still musing about the thing, Jacinda's mystery in her bag may not have sufficient mystique. "My plan is a cunning surprise! I won't even decide what it is until I see the election result!"
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The Herald reports on a trivial but telling incident from Parliament: Labour Cabinet Minister Kiri Allan read the wrong speech at the third reading of a freedom camping bill in Parliament last night. She re-read almost word for word a speech given at the Self-contained Motor Vehicles Legislation bill’s ...
Barrie Saunders writes – Very well-intentioned politicians, judges and others have taken New Zealand down into a Treaty rabbit hole, from which few know how to exit without creating more social divisions. The modern interpretations of the Maori version of Treaty have set aside a common understanding of ...
It’s like deja-vu all over again. House prices are primed to surge 10-20% soon after any clear National-ACT win on October 14. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: There are increasing signs in economists’ forecasts, auction clearance rates, migration rates, divergent tax policies and house building rates that a clear ...
I did something yesterday that I hadn’t done in ages. Watch Oral Questions in parliament. I’m not sure what happened in all the episodes I missed, but nothing much seemed to have changed.For those unfamiliar, Question Time takes place in parliament at 2pm each Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of the ...
Slow Learner: Effective leaders develop a political “muscle memory” of their own. The National Party should get one.SPEAKING IN PUBLIC tops most people’s list of fearful situations. There are some careers, however, for which public fluency is a non-negotiable pre-requisite. There’s little point in pursuing an acting career, for example, ...
Reality appears to be about to shatter Jacinda Ardern’s dream that New Zealand could lead the world in showing how to deal with farm emissions. The Government is facing a breakdown in negotiations over its much-vaunted He Waka Eke Noa deal with farmers to price greenhouse gas emissions and ...
Hi,Webworm won a Voyager media award over the weekend for “Best Team Investigation”! This would not have been possible without readers. Without you. Thank you.Also, there’s a new Flightless Bird out today, where I look at drug rehab clinics in Florida. I talk to three former addicts, and their stories ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
Buzz from the Beehive The Government is coy about some aspects of its relationship with China – and with the United States. Earlier this month, the PM spent a hectic 23 hours in Port Moresby, the capital of Papua New Guinea, where he responded to the superpower security deal just ...
What do Game of Thrones, Lord of the Rings and your daily newspaper all have in common? They all tell tales of imaginary worlds.In Game of Thrones the honourable Stark family find themselves in deadly conflict with the ruthless House of Lannister.In the NZ Herald the Rt Hon Chris Hipkins finds himself ...
What do Game of Thrones, Lord of the Rings and your daily newspaper all have in common? They all tell tales of imaginary worlds.In Game of Thrones the honourable Stark family find themselves in deadly conflict with the ruthless House of Lannister.In the NZ Herald the Rt Hon Chris Hipkins finds himself ...
In 2022 the government announced a periodic review of the Intelligence and Security Act, the legislation governing New Zealand's spies. Yesterday the review presented its report, Taumaru: Protecting Aotearoa New Zealand as a Free, Open and Democratic Society. Its a chunky read, and I'm not finished yet, but from the ...
The Charities Services decision to require the Waipareira Trust to claw back $385,000 of interest-free loans from John Tamihere brings renewed attention to the links between Whānau Ora and the Trust.Thomas Cranmer writes – Revelations earlier this month in the Herald that the social services charity Waipareira ...
National has developed a novel election strategy. It involves being both for and against almost every issue that comes down the pike. The use of te reo on public signage? Recently National Party leader Christopher Luxon came out against the bi-lingual use of te reo in the naming of government ...
Anti-densification residents’ and ratepayers’ groups are cock-a-hoop over National’s partial backflip on MDRS over the weekend and have ramped up their campaigns to stop densification in their areas. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTL;DR: NIMBY groups are cock-a-hoop this morning, calling on councils and the Government to completely abandon the MDRS housing ...
It’s been two months but today the Auckland Transport board meet for again. There’s a lot on the agenda so I can’t cover it all in this post but here are some of the highlights from their regular board papers. The open session starts at 9am and can be watched on ...
This story by Aaron Cantú was originally published in Capital & Main and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. Monic Uriarte was thrilled to get approved for an affordable apartment in Los Angeles’ University Park, close to USC. But soon after she and her ...
This incomplete picture speaks of everything we love most about a summer holiday in Aotearoa: The bach, the beach, the barbecue, the sand, the christmas ham sandwiches, the serenity.We love it, don’t we, Aotearoa? Getting away to somewhere warm and quiet with a high tide and a hammock. And if ...
Buzz from the Beehive Ministers who took time out from the Labour Party congress to attend to portfolio duties were focused largely on promoting the country’s interests overseas. The statements with the widest implications dealt with: Trade – Damien O’Connor joined ministerial representatives at a meeting in Detroit, USA, ...
In the last year of a second term in government. the election outcome shouldn’t even be close. All that’s required for a competent Opposition to be streets ahead in the polls, is an ability to look like a credible government-in-waiting. Instead, we’ve got a very tight contest. There’s a reason ...
The Herald reports that WINZ debt has reached the staggering total of $2.4 billion, with the usual racism and sexism in who owes and how much they pay: Anti-poverty groups say the poorest Kiwis are caught in a debt trap as the total amount of money owed to the ...
There was a poll last week which asked if now was the right time for a tax cut. Which is quite an odd thing to ask really, don’t you think?We’ve got to pay back the money used to keep paying people and stop businesses going under during the pandemic. Our ...
The Treasury released its budget economic forecasts. What do they say about the economy over the next four months?Brian Easton writes – Let me begin me with an irritation. One post-budget headline was ‘Treasury optimistic over recession risk in Budget 2023‘. Treasury being optimistic is almost an ...
As a politician swallowing a rat under a very public spotlight, Chris Bishop gave a spirited and relatively smooth account of himself yesterday. File Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Chris Bishop has detailed National’s new housing policy for Election 2023 that confirms a National Government would not force councils ...
After signalling it a week ago, yesterday National launched their new housing policy which abandons their support for the Medium Density Residential Standards (MDRS) that they had worked with the government to deliver back in 2021 and shifts the focus to more sprawl. Overall there are three key areas National ...
The audacity of National’s “u-turn” over housing intensification is an extraordinary slap in the face for Chris Bishop and Nicola Willis. If it does nothing else, it raises questions about their political judgement, not for the first time.. Some in the Caucus have still not forgiven them for their ...
As the general election approaches, the Association of Former Members of the Parliament of New Zealand has organised an essay competition to to foster democracy. Secondary school students are being challenged to identify the important elements of a successful democracy, explain their value and consider whether they can be improved ...
Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: For paying subscribers, here's my pick of the week’s top six news developments, quotes and charts of the week with my personal reflections, plus my suggestions for Sunday reading and listening. There’s also one fun thing. In summary this week, my six takeaways were:Christopher ...
With Open Arms: Is it at all reasonable to suppose that a colonial society in which whites traditionally occupied all the upper rungs of the ethnic hierarchy, and where the colonised were relegated to the bottom of the socio-economic ladder, will respond positively to a concerted indigenous push from below, ...
Hi,Just a quick online-only update that Webworm won “Best Team Investigation” last night at the Voyagers.This means a lot, especially considering we were up against giant newsrooms like Stuff and TVNZ:WINNER: David Farrier and Hayden Donnell | Webworm – The Downward Spiral of Arise ChurchJUDGES: Alan Sunderland and Ali Ikram“This ...
May 28, 2025.Ladies and gentlemen. It’s a beautiful clear morning here in Auckland City. We’re heading for a maximum temperature of 14 degrees, and the local time is now 10:30am. Please remain seated if you’d like to, or get up and walk around the plane if you prefer. New regulations ...
Somebody has made a new survey and it tells us this little waterlogged nation of ours is rocketing up the misery charts. Maybe they took it before the sun came back out.Or maybe they took it any time in the last two years. Because negativity is quite surely the new ...
The appointment of Elizabeth Longworth as Chair of the New Zealand National Commission for UNESCO was one of just two press statements on the government’s official website today. Perhaps that’s because ministers have been busy preparing speeches for the Labour Party faithful who have gathered in Wellington for the party’s ...
Alarm bells have been rung by the department after its Deputy Director-General for Operations warns, ‘the initial view shows that we do not have sufficient funding to cover our basic running costs’.Thomas Cranmer writes – Following last week’s budget, alarm bells have been rung by the Department ...
Luxon went after the NIMBY vote, declaring National’s 2021 bipartisan deal with Labour to make it much easier to put three townhouses on a regular section ‘wrong’. File Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTLDR: The week’s news in Aotearoa’s political economy I covered via The Kākā for subscribers included:The Labour ...
Hello! This is the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the week.Here’s what you may have missed.Last Sunday’s column was about the budget A big chunk of this year’s budget coverage was brought to us by the words crass, gauche and venal. The big questions ...
Hi,Usually Webworms are quite focussed — this one is the opposite. No rhyme or reason. A bit like my brain: sometimes ultra-focussed, other times utterly unable to settle on a goddamn thing. And as we head into the weekend, there are a bunch of things buzzing around in my head ...
Focussed immigration has always been essential to our future, but New Zealanders need to be aware of the immediate dire situation our government is putting us in with a predicted record of one hundred thousand new immigrants moving to New Zealand in this year alone. That means we will have ...
Today, President of Te Pāti Māori, John Tamihere has confirmed that Heather Te-Au Skipworth will stand for Te Pāti Māori in the Tukituki electorate this election. ...
During New Zealand First coalition negotiations our policy was to train and resource 1800 new frontline police. We secured this coalition policy win to ensure our streets had a police force that could tackle crime - after years of neglect. Remember those previous nine years of neglect saw a ‘tag ...
Katie Kenny from Stuff published an article today with a lazy attempt at so-called ‘fact checking’ my recent comments on the World Health Organisation’s concerning new regulations being developed. What is most surprising is that throughout this entire ‘fact checking’ process, Kenny never once rang me asking for my side ...
The National Party has released another confused and rushed policy that will only further worsen the inequality that is driven by unaffordable housing. ...
Welcome to sunny and calm Wellington, which I know those of you who are visiting would of course expect to be the case. It’s been a busy week since we put forward the 2023 Budget. Labour MPs have been out across the motu giving the good oil on the Budget. ...
Kia orana, Talofa lava, Mālo e lelei, Taloha ni, Fakaalofa lahi atu, Noa’ia e mauri, Ni sa bula vinaka, Kia ora, Tena Koutou Katoa. Labour Party President Jill Day, Prime Minister Hipkins, Party faithful, delegates and comrades, whānau and friends, it’s a privilege to be here today. I begin my ...
One of my kaumātua up North stood before the Waitangi Tribunal and said: ‘He aha kē ahau, te tangata kore hara i mua i te Atua, e tu nei kia whakawaatia e koe, te tangata tāhae, te tangata hara, te tangata kore tikanga?Ko koe kē te tika, kia tū ...
New Zealanders will be highly concerned that the World Health Organisation proposes to effectively take control of independent decision making away from sovereign countries and place control with the Director General. W.H.O International Health Regulations on future outbreaks of disease aim to give the Director General extraordinary and wide-sweeping powers. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to take responsibility for reducing inflation by taxing wealth instead of leaving RBNZ to continue hiking the Official Cash Rate. ...
The Green Party has released its list of candidates for the 2023 election. With a mix of familiar faces, fresh new talent, and strong tangata whenua voices, this exceptional group of candidates are ready to set the direction of the next Government. ...
Thank you for your invitation to be here, after yesterday's budget, and for the opportunity to talk with you. In the economic and social turmoil following the arrival of COVID 19 in New Zealand many concerns emerged. How would we keep our economy going and maintain our exports which are ...
At the heart of Budget 2023 is a cost of living package, designed to ease the pressure on New Zealanders in the face of global inflation and the challenges of rebuilding from extreme weather events. It provides practical cost of living relief across some of the core expenses facing Kiwis ...
A long standing Green Party policy has been extended yet again in this year’s Budget. This will deliver warmer homes for thousands of people, lower power bills, and cut climate pollution. ...
The Green Party is fully on board with free bus and train travel for under 12s and half price travel for under 25s - next stop, free travel for all under 18s, students, and apprentices. ...
Earlier this week, the Prime Minister announced a billion dollar flood and cyclone recovery package as part of Budget 2023. This is about doing the basics - repairing and rebuilding what has been damaged and making smart investments, including $100 million of protection funding to ensure future events don’t cause ...
New Zealand’s most recent defence assessment identified climate change and geostrategic competition as the two greatest security challenges to our place in the South Pacific. To the first issue, partners engaging and re-engaging with Pacific Island Countries are finding that climate change is a security and existential threat in our ...
The government is continuing to support rangatahi in providing more funding into Maori Trades training and new He Poutama Rangatahi programmes across Aotearoa. “We’re backing 30 new by Māori for Māori Kaupapa employment and training programmes, which will help iwi into sustainable employment or progress within their chosen careers” says ...
Murihiku Marae was officially reopened today, setting a gold standard in sustainable building practices as well as social outcomes for the people of Waihōpai Invercargill, Regional Development Minister Kiri Allan says. “The marae has been a central hub for this community since the 1980’s. With the support of $9.65 million ...
The first major public housing development in Whangārei for decades has reached completion, with 37 new homes opened in the suburb of Maunu today. The project on Tapatahi Crescent and Puriri Park Road, consists of 15 one-bedroom, 4 two-bedroom, 7 three-bedroom, 8 four-bedroom and 3 five-bedroom homes, as well as ...
Trade and Export Growth Minister Damen O’Connor will depart tomorrow for London to represent New Zealand at the Commonwealth Trade Ministers’ Meeting and then to Paris to vice-chair the OECD Ministerial Council Meeting. “My travel to the United Kingdom is well-timed, with the United Kingdom Free Trade Agreement (UK FTA) ...
The Fuel Industry (Improving Fuel Resilience) Amendment Bill would: boost New Zealand’s fuel supply resilience and economic security enable the minimum stockholding obligation regulations to be adapted as the energy and transport environment evolves. “Last November, I announced a six-point plan to improve the resiliency of our fuel supply from ...
The Government is making sure those on low incomes will no longer have to wait five weeks to get the minimum weekly rate of ACC, and improving the data collected to make the system fairer, Minister for ACC Peeni Henare said today. The Accident Compensation (Access Reporting and Other Matters) ...
A compulsory code of conduct will ensure school board members are crystal clear on their responsibilities and expected standard of behaviour, Minister of Education Jan Tinetti said. It’s the first time a compulsory code of conduct has been published for state and state-integrated school boards and comes into effect on ...
Tena koutou katoa and thank you, Mayor Nadine Taylor, for your welcome to Marlborough. Thanks also Doug Saunders-Loder and all of you for inviting me to your annual conference. As you might know, I’m quite new to this job – and I’m particularly pleased that the first organisation I’m giving a ...
The Government will enter into a funding arrangement with councils in cyclone and flood affected regions to support them to offer a voluntary buyout for owners of Category 3 designated residential properties. It will also co-fund work needed to protect Category 2 designated properties. “From the beginning of this process ...
The Government has announced changes to strengthen requirements in venues with pokie (gambling) machines will come into effect from 15 June. “Pokies are one of the most harmful forms of gambling. They can have a detrimental impact on individuals, their friends, whānau and communities,” Internal Affairs Minister Barbara Edmonds said. ...
The total Police workforce is now the largest it has ever been. Police constabulary stands at 10,700 officers – an increase of 21% since 2017 Māori officers have increased 40%, Pasifika 83%, Asian 157%, Women 61% Every district has got more Police under this Government The Government has delivered on ...
Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hon Nanaia Mahuta met with Korea President Yoon, as well as Pacific Islands Forum Secretary General Henry Puna, during her recent visit to Korea. “It was an honour to represent Aotearoa New Zealand at the first Korea – Pacific Leaders’ Summit. We discussed Pacific ambitions under the ...
The Government’s Research and Development Tax Incentive has supported more than $2 billion of New Zealand business innovation – an increase of around $1 billion in less than nine months. "Research and innovation are essential in helping us meet the biggest challenges and seize opportunities facing New Zealand. It’s fantastic ...
The next ‘giant leap’ in New Zealand’s space journey has been taken today with the launch of the National Space Policy, Economic Development Minister Barbara Edmonds announced. “Our space sector is growing rapidly. Each year New Zealand is becoming a more and more attractive place for launches, manufacturing space-related technology ...
A new Year 7-13 designated character wharekura will be built in Pāpāmoa, Associate Minister of Education Kelvin Davis has announced. The wharekura will focus on science, mathematics and creative technologies while connecting ākonga to the whakapapa of the area. The decision follows an application by the Ngā Pōtiki ā Tamapahore ...
Protecting the environment by establishing a stronger, more consistent system for freedom camping Supporting councils to better manage freedom camping in their region and reduce the financial and social impacts on communities Ensuring that self-contained vehicle owners have time to prepare for the new system The Self-Contained Motor Vehicle ...
A new law passed last night could see up to 25 percent of Family Court judges’ workload freed up in order to reduce delays, Minister of Justice Kiri Allan said. The Family Court (Family Court Associates) Legislation Bill will establish a new role known as the Family Court Associate. The ...
New Zealand businesses will begin reaping the rewards of our gold-standard free trade agreement with the United Kingdom (UK FTA) from today. “The New Zealand UK FTA enters into force from today, and is one of the seven new or upgraded Free Trade Agreements negotiated by Labour to date,” Prime ...
The Government will reform outdated surrogacy laws to improve the experiences of children, surrogates, and the growing number of families formed through surrogacy, by adopting Labour MP Tāmati Coffey’s Member’s Bill as a Government Bill, Minister Kiri Allan has announced. “Surrogacy has become an established method of forming a family ...
Defence Minister Andrew Little departs for Singapore tomorrow to attend the 20th annual Shangri-La Dialogue for Defence Ministers from the Indo-Pacific region. “Shangri-La brings together many countries to speak frankly and express views about defence issues that could affect us all,” Andrew Little said. “New Zealand is a long-standing participant ...
Research, Science and Innovation Minister Dr Ayesha Verrall and the Chinese Minister of Science and Technology Wang Zhigang met in Wellington today and affirmed the two countries’ long-standing science relationship. Minister Wang was in New Zealand for the 6th New Zealand-China Joint Commission Meeting on Science and Technology Cooperation. Following ...
5 percent uplift clearer and simpler to navigate Domestic productions can access more funding sources 20 percent rebate confirmed for post-production, digital and visual effects Qualifying expenditure for post-production, digital and visual effects rebate dropped to $250,000 to encourage more smaller productions The Government is making it easier for the ...
Deputy Prime Minister and Associate Minister of Foreign Affairs (Pacific Region) Carmel Sepuloni will represent New Zealand at Samoa’s 61st Anniversary of Independence commemorations in Apia. “Aotearoa New Zealand is pleased to share in this significant occasion, alongside other invited Pacific leaders, and congratulates Samoa on the milestone of 61 ...
The Government is continuing to support retailers with additional funding for the highly popular Fog Cannon Subsidy Scheme, Police and Small Business Minister Ginny Andersen announced today. “The Government is committed to improving retailers’ safety,” Ginny Andersen said. “I’ve seen first-hand the difference fog cannons are making. Not only do ...
The Government has received the first independent review of the Intelligence and Security Act 2017, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins says. The review, considered by the Parliamentary Intelligence and Security Committee, was presented to the House of Representatives today. “Ensuring the safety and security of New Zealanders is of the utmost ...
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has expressed condolences on behalf of New Zealand to the Kingdom of Tonga following the death of Her Royal Highness Princess Mele Siu’ilikutapu Kalaniuvalu Fotofili. “New Zealand sends it’s heartfelt condolences to the people of Tonga, and to His Majesty King Tupou VI at this time ...
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has expressed condolences on behalf of New Zealand to the Kingdom of Tonga following the death of Her Royal Highness Princess Mele Siu’ilikutapu Kalaniuvalu Fotofili. “New Zealand sends it’s heartfelt condolences to the people of Tonga, and to His Majesty King Tupou VI at this time ...
Defence Minister Andrew Little and Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta have today announced the extension of the New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) deployment to Solomon Islands, as part of the regionally-led Solomon Islands International Assistance Force (SIAF). “Aotearoa New Zealand has a long history of working alongside the Royal Solomon ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta will travel to the Republic of Korea today to attend the Korea–Pacific Leaders’ Summit in Seoul and Busan. “Korea is an important partner for Aotearoa New Zealand and the Pacific region. I am eager for the opportunity to meet and discuss issues that matter to our ...
Trade and Export Growth Minister Damien O’Connor joined ministerial representatives at a meeting in Detroit, USA today to announce substantial conclusion of negotiations of a new regional supply chains agreement among 14 Indo-Pacific countries. The Supply Chains agreement is one of four pillars being negotiated within the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework ...
Our most spoken Pacific language is taking centre stage this week with Vaiaso o le Gagana Samoa – Samoa Language Week kicking off around the country. “Understanding and using the Samoan language across our nation is vital to its survival,” Barbara Edmonds said. “The Samoan population in New Zealand are ...
Over 90 per cent of New Zealanders are expected to receive this year’s nationwide test of the Emergency Mobile Alert system tonight between 6-7pm. “Emergency Mobile Alert is a tool that can alert people when their life, health, or property, is in danger,” Kieran McAnulty said. “The annual nationwide test ...
ENGLISH: Whakatōhea and the Crown sign Deed of Settlement A Deed of Settlement has been signed between Whakatōhea and the Crown, 183 years to the day since Whakatōhea rangatira signed the Treaty of Waitangi, Minister for Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations Andrew Little has announced. Whakatōhea is an iwi based in ...
Elizabeth Longworth has been appointed as the Chair of the New Zealand National Commission for UNESCO, Associate Minister of Education Jo Luxton announced today. UNESCO is the United Nations agency responsible for promoting cooperative action among member states in the areas of education, science, culture, social science (including peace and ...
Tourism and hospitality employer accreditation scheme to recognise quality employers Better education and career opportunities in tourism Cultural competency to create more diverse and inclusive workplaces Innovation and technology acceleration to drive satisfying, skilled jobs Strengthening our tourism workers and supporting them into good career pathways, pay and working conditions ...
Tourism and hospitality employer accreditation scheme to recognise quality employers Better education and career opportunities in tourism Cultural competency to create more diverse and inclusive workplaces Innovation and technology acceleration to drive satisfying, skilled jobs Strengthening our tourism workers and supporting them into good career pathways, pay and working conditions ...
Greater access to primary care, including 193 more front line clinical staff More hauora services and increased mental health support Boost for maternity and early years programmes Funding for cancers, HIV and longer term conditions Greater access to primary care, improved maternity care and mental health support are ...
Greater access to primary care, including 193 more front line clinical staff More hauora services and increased mental health support Boost for maternity and early years programmes Funding for cancers, HIV and longer term conditions Greater access to primary care, improved maternity care and mental health support are ...
The Government continues progress on the survivor-led independent redress system for historic abuse in care, with the announcement of the design and advisory group members today. “The main recommendation of the Royal Commission of Inquiry’s Abuse in Care interim redress report was for a survivor-led independent redress system, and the ...
Flood-ravaged West Aucklanders are rejoicing after the government announced it will offer buyout options to people whose land is too risky to rebuild on. ...
Wayne Brown has sent councillors copies of insulting emails from the public, including one that called them "dip shits", while the deputy mayor says the mayor is not making the budget process easier. ...
The National Party wildly underestimated how popular its leader would be when he visited New Plymouth on Friday and had to turn people away at the door. Political editor Jo Moir found a patch of wall to lean against as Christopher Luxon got all sorts of questions and advice, not ...
By Repeka Nasiko in Lautoka The University of the South Pacific will be receiving additional funding from the Fiji government in the 2023-2024 national budget, says Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance Professor Biman Prasad. Speaking at a public consultation in Lautoka this week, he said the additional funding ...
By Gorethy Kenneth in Port Moresby The National Court has ordered the Papua New Guinea government to disclose the full details of the gold refinery deal it entered into with a Singapore-based company, National Gold Corporation. The court ordered Prime Minister James Marape (first defendant), Planning Minister Renbo Paita (second ...
Asia Pacific Report A new edition of the Okinawan Journal of Island Studies features social justice island activism, including a case study of Aotearoa New Zealand’s Pacific Media Centre, in what the editors say brings a sense of “urgency” in the field of diversity, equity, and inclusion in scholarship. In ...
By Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific journalist Preliminary findings of a yet-to-be released Transparency International survey has found sextortion — demanding sexual favours in return for public services — is a major issue in parts of the Pacific. Papua New Guinea, the Federated States of Micronesia and Solomon Islands have higher ...
RNZ News New Zealand’s Media Freedom Council has called Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown’s exclusion of some media outlets from his budget speech today “unacceptable”. In an appearance at Auckland Transport’s Viaduct headquarters, Brown took time out of pitching his plan to sell the city’s holdings in Auckland Airport to complain ...
There are parallels between Indonesia’s Aceh where anAustralian surfer faced a flogging, and West Papua where a New Zealand pilot may be facing death. Both provinces have fought brutalguerrilla wars for independence. One has been settled through foreign peacekeepers. The other still rages as outsiders fear intervention.By Duncan ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tina Hinton, Associate Professor of Pharmacology, University of Sydney Shutterstock The latest health trend on TikTok has been dubbed “nature’s own Ozempic”. It’s the herbal preparation berberine. Influencers have been enthusiastically claiming its success in helping them lose weight, ...
The Government has announced new regulations to ensure venues and gambling societies uphold their responsibilities to prevent problem gambling and gambling harm. These regulations will apply to pubs, clubs and TAB NZ venues and will come into effect ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dean Aszkielowicz, Lecturer, Murdoch University On Thursday, Justice Anthony Besanko of the Federal Court dismissed defamation proceedings brought by former Special Air Service soldier Ben Roberts-Smith against several Australian news outlets. The court found that reporting by Nick McKenzie, Chris Masters ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Toby Walsh, Professor of AI, Research Group Leader, UNSW Sydney Shutterstock The world missed the boat with social media. It fuelled misinformation, fake news, and polarisation. We saw the harms too late, once they had already started to have a ...
The parliamentary petition calling for a national food strategy launched on the 1st of June and will remain open for signatures for eight weeks. The call is led by Eat New Zealand, Freedom Farms and Veterinarians for Animal Welfare Aotearoa (VAWA). ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gregory Moore, Senior Research Associate, School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, The University of Melbourne Shutterstock While plants can’t walk, they can certainly travel. Some species have travelled vast distances over millennia, moving by different and varied modes. Some ...
Duncan Greive is joined by The Spinoff staff writer Shanti Mathias and The Bulletin editor Anna Rawhiti-Connell to discuss the Safer Online Services and Media Platforms document, and its implications for the future of digital media. For a very special episode of The Fold, Duncan Greive analyses the Safer Online ...
Yes, they’re phenomenally expensive at the moment. But if you manage to track down a bargain or are keen on a splurge, there’s plenty of ways to make the kūmara worth it. As a child, there was no doubt in my mind: kūmara was the world’s best vegetable. This belief ...
Yes, they’re phenomenally expensive at the moment. But if you manage to track down a bargain or are keen on a splurge, there’s plenty of ways to make the kūmara worth it. As a child, there was no doubt in my mind: kūmara was the world’s best vegetable. This belief ...
Wayne Brown called most of his councillors ‘financially illiterate’ during a press conference yesterday morning. He then went back to the office and sent them emails from constituents who called them ‘dip shits’.Auckland mayor Wayne Brown spent a good portion of Thursday morning berating his councillors. In an 8.30am press ...
Wayne Brown called most of his councillors ‘financially illiterate’ during a press conference yesterday morning. He then went back to the office and sent them emails from constituents who called them ‘dip shits’.Auckland mayor Wayne Brown spent a good portion of Thursday morning berating his councillors. In a 9.30am press ...
Budget 2023’s promise of significant additional ECE funding has the potential to help many centres avoid financial unviability and hardship, as long as the current 20-hours conditions are kept, prompting the Early Childhood Council to withdraw its ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Tomorrow, and Tomorrow, and Tomorrow by Gabrielle Zevin (Chatto & Windus, $37)Let’s get quizzical: ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Tomorrow, and Tomorrow, and Tomorrow by Gabrielle Zevin (Chatto & Windus, $37)Let’s get quizzical: ...
The Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care is being challenged in court by two of the institutions it is investigating Two churches have filed applications for a judicial review of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care, arguing that they don't bear responsibility for care of ...
* This is an excerpt from Rec Room. Sign up for regular Friday dispatches here. It’s a long weekend for most, so you might be keen to try out some new shows. Whatever you do, don’t start with HBO’s Succession successor The Idol (Neon). Billed as an over-sexed journey into ...
* This is an excerpt from Rec Room. Sign up for regular Friday dispatches here. It’s a long weekend for most, so you might be keen to try out some new shows. Whatever you do, don’t start with HBO’s Succession successor The Idol (Neon). Billed as an over-sexed journey into ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Geoffrey Browne, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Melbourne School of Design, The University of Melbourne Shutterstock When a driver and a pedestrian approach a T-intersection, who has to give way? In newly published research we tested over 1,000 road users’ knowledge ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicholas Khoo, Associate Professor of International Politics, University of Otago Getty Images Russia’s war with Ukraine is now at a critical turning point. The relentless missile and drone strikes on the capital Kyiv may look like a sign of strength, ...
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The old Nat's look a bit screwed.
Mind you. So does Winston again.
Seymour will be smiling his arse off
Greens look like they will go back to being pointless again.
Ardern might as well get Clarke to get the champagne in now, while it might be on special
Yes, the old old nats do look a bit screwed, but there's still time for collins to go completely ballistic and guarantee getting totally screwed.
We shouldn't get carried away. The most important poll is in 3 weeks time.
Surprised me the other day how many early vote now.
Forgive me if wrong, but from memory it is actually something like 60%
I'd expect it to be even greater this time, everyone's pretty much had enough and wish it'd be over with. Wouldn't be surprised if there isn't queues the day advance voting opens and if 50% of the vote is cast in the first week.
Was about half last time. They are expecting 2/3 this time. I reckon 80% plus myself.
Why take the risk?
BBesides they have been underestimating the uptake over 5 elections so far – why would they be right this time?
Consistently wrong so we can predict the takeup by taking into account how predictably wrong they are?
+1
Don't count your chickens springs to mind……still got a way to go. Is Labour trending down in this poll looks like 10%? Has it been trending down in earlier polls as well? I think extending the election out as far as it was may turn out to be a mistake and we may snatch ……whatever. Hope not. Hope that ACT do not get too many more unless it is at National's expense.
TBF I think Ardern had to extend it out.
If they kept the date with covid they would have been accused of taking advantage of it.
Has it been trending down in earlier polls as well?
Make what you will of the data.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election
@ Shanreagh (missed reply button)
Yep, don’t count the chickens yet.
Winston's plugging around, looking for the hot wire that will spark up his party again. ⚡ZAP!⚡ NZ1 back on 6% and Labour play them off against the Greens.
Dude has come back from the dead more times than Dracula in the Hammer Horrors. Never write him off until the results have been counted.
Ahem. Don't count his crypt closed until the results have been counted, recounted, certified and the writ returned. Even then he'll rise from the soft dank earth for the next election.
undead undead undead………
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OKRJfIPiJGY
Of course theres the Daylight…oh, and the Mirrors : )
Fantastic single … would occasionally hear it's post-punk (slightly gothic / slightly Kraftwerk) tones emanating from my older Brother's bedroom c 1981. Hint of Dada, whiff of Nosferatu, Dub-influenced feedback & echo effects. Always liked it.
Then again, it did, tragically, play a role in inspiring the rather embarrassing teenage Goth movement … which is a tad unfortunate … deeply depressed, self-involved ex-boarding school creatures obsessed with the morbid & the macabre … still, can’t have everything, I guess.
Well there's always a disturbing Teenage Movement : ) I randomly found that clip years ago when looking for an obscure Fall song I'd heard ….so down the youtube rabbit hole….an hour plus : ) later.
I'd give him way more than the counting, he took 6 months in 1978/79, and 3 years between 2008 and 2011.
NZF's current polling is not that out of line from previous elections where they've scraped in. Not dead yet….
Lol McFlock. That Zap sounds good, if you find where it is in good quantities and to spare I could do with some.
One positive with the ACT support is that they will now get the number of seats their party vote actually entitles them to, not one more than that entitlement via the Epsom rort.
The other is that we will have fun seeing what sort of reality-challenged oddballs follow Seymour into the house.
"what sort of reality-challenged oddballs follow Seymour into the house."
Was actually thinking that the other day. Never heard of other ACT polys
https://www.act.org.nz/candidates
Go nuts. Enjoy.
Or not.
three in the top nine act candidates are gun owners, who think that fact is important enough to mention in their five line bio's. not much mention of charity work ,, volunteering etc.
"three in the top nine act candidates are gun owners,"
Without derailing the topic, do you think there are no Labour or Nat MPs who are gun owners?
Wouldn't surprise me (though I don’t know} if Ardern's partner is, given his fishing and outdoory shows
What is it you disagree with for owning a gun?
It's more the fact that they see fit to put it in their bio that provokes my interest. And what that says about who they are trying to appeal to.
that was my point andre. when you have a five line bio to influence voters, you make your intentions clear. obviously christy hasnt thought that through.
"three in the top nine act candidates are gun owners,"
Apologies, but you said 3 of the top 9 bios says they are gun owners.
I actually bothered to look at Andre’s link and there are no three in the top nine saying they are gun owners.
I was that bored I looked,
There is the gun lobby woman, but that is about it
Oh, it is even better (or worse, depending on your view) than what woodart said:
David Seymour, 27th May 2020
https://nzguns.co.nz/campfire/act-stands-with-licenced-firearms-owners-at-election/
That would make the “three in the top nine act candidates [who] are gun owners”:
Nicole McKee
James McDowall
Toni Severin
You are not very good at finding out stuff that you actually don’t want to find out, are you? In other words, you’re bored and wasting our time, which I find excruciatingly boring.
I am still trying to work out why it is so bad to be a gun owner given how many there are in NZ
I mean seriously. Incognito. Do you think no Labour MPs own guns?
You like misreading bios, Chris. How many Labour candidates think their firearms ownership is important enough to include in their bios?
..
Have seen it now.
Bit weirdoey tbf
But the McDowall one doesn’t say he is a gun owner
Doesn’t change it is a bit nutty brigade
I was just in the middle of writing a Moderation note for you and parking you out of the way for a month. WTF do you think it means when McDowall states this in his Bio:
And indeed, he is a firearm owner.
So, woodart was pretty correct and you should stop digging your hole, if I were you; it is just about ready.
It doesn't matter,
I think we can all agree ACT are weirdos, apart from Seymour.
It is not worth getting pedantic.
Wise move.
So I have learnt
Slow learner. You were literally only seconds away from being parked away, as I said.
Three prioritise firearms enough to mention: Severin (as owner), McKee (as shooter and importer), McDowall (as their firearms policy writer).
So yeah, ACT love guns. I wonder if anyone took a trip to the US to get NRA funding, like the Aussie tools did?
Strange, I would take a gun owner over any more landlords in parliament…
How do you feel about gun-owning landlords?
Heh, they probably don't tie up much of the Tenancy Tribunal's time…
This is what you call entitlement.
He started his life knowing the right people and has been on the gravy train ever since.
Always look on the bright side of life. Why don't we adopt it as the unofficial anthem of the lefties on The Standard?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5e7gdxkgE8
Always Look On The Bright Side Of Life (The Unofficial England Football Anthem) – Monty Python
Three weeks to actual polling day but less than a week now until the start of advance voting.
The Electoral Commission thinks 60% of us will vote early this year.
Polls have been predicting a Labour majority for six months. Fighting against that is hard and time is running out for National to try and change the narrative, and they’ve played their so-called trump card, tax cuts, and it hasn’t worked. The absolute fiasco of the alternative budget probably hasn’t filtered right through to the voting public yet either.
There is nothing Collins can do now to get voters to like her (and that includes crocodile tears with farmers like she did last week). Brownlee has had to be hidden in a cupboard somewhere. Some of the more loopy MPs are getting the wrong headlines. There’s a real danger that another 5%+ of their voters could peel off to other parties by the time the election is done. Or maybe just stay home.
yes, think a lot of farmers will do something else on voting day, probably go to their beach house.
Farmer friend 70+ is voting labour this time, hates unions, never voted left strong>anything before in his life. Not only impressed with Adern but thinks Robertson and Hipkins have stepped up.
🙂 going to be a good night.
Reassuring when people value competence. Tough years ahead to get through.
Farmer parents who pay National subs will be voting Labour this time as well. Their motivation is to give Labout an absolute majority so that they don't have to rely on the Greens.
Some patterns are so clear that they are spin-proof:
1) Swing voters have given up on National. There is no denying that now. Worse still, Collins was put there to shore up the base – and ACT's rise shows she has failed.
2) The Greens and NZF are 2 totally different cases, and commentators who lump them together miss the point. The Winston vote is gone, and the Greens' support endures, because the latter are part of a global movement with deep roots, not some short-term tactical band-aid (amazingly, this is still not understood by pundits who only think in terms of Leader-Parties like Peters, Dunne, Anderton etc).
3) People who are "soft" Labour (ex-Key voters) might be tempted by a centre party if there was one (see 2002), but there isn't, so they realize it's Jacinda or Judith, no avoiding that choice, no fences to sit on. So Labour's vote holds up. Where's it going to go?
4) The David Icke fan club … nothing. Many voters are conservative (as in any democracy), but few Kiwis are fringe fruit loops. Thank you, NZ.
TOP. They're just not polling high enough and without a 'worm turning' debate performance – because they've been locked out of the debates – they're not likely to get the publicity they need to break 5%.
To be fair, they did get plenty of publicity in the 2017 campaign. Sadly, voters did not find constant abuse by Sean Plunket very attractive.
To voters, do Top seem more like United Future or Social Credit?
I'd say more like Social Credit as they have policies as a raison etre but the voters assume they don't understand the TOP policies so give them a miss. United Future stood for beige which they did understand.
Neither.
TOP is a never-was-nor-will-be. United Future and Social Credit are has-beens.
I'm really curious what's collapsed the NZF vote. Hope we get some research on that at some point. I suspect a combination of things: Labour's handling of the covid response (and taking care of elderly in the process), NZF appearing corrupt, Peters not being on his game and having had health issues. Just hope it all holds and the centre left can get a crack at governing alone.
National-supporting NZF went to ACT or National, Labour-supporting NZF went to Labour.
yes, I meant what prompted that.
I think your reasons above are as likely as any, and would add the handbrake aspect – Labour supporters don't want a handbrake, and the National supporters are still stinging from him not choosing National, so more of an enabler for Labour than a handbrake (since without NZF, Labour would not be in government).
Well she was put there either to sure up the base or to mix metaphors, to take the hospital pass and be a blast shield that protected the careers of other leadership aspirants…
Nicely put Observer
After election day, even if Labour can rule the country by itself, I'd prefer they had the Greens doing something.
Preferably green stuff.
Sure. Conservation. But not RMA reform – too complex and they don't have legal capacity.
Or some impossible social welfare sinkhole to offload blame.
Transport. Maybe Energy. Associate Health.
Greens looking after Energy would be really interesting – both Transpower and the Electricity Authority could do with a shove.
I have been told that Eugenie Sage has done an excellent job at Conservation – some good achievements with no cock-ups or even controversy. Tracey Martin has been mentioned as a good performer from NZ First, but that is from some time back. Sometimes all the attention goes to the leaders – we need good competent people supporting them. Offhand, I can't however think of an equivalent National Party MP who was good when they were last in government . . .
“After election day, even if Labour can rule the country by itself, I'd prefer they had the Greens doing something ”
How about this for a start.
1 A progressive tax policy
2 The clean energy plan
3 Safeguarding our marine environment
4 Real animal welfare
5 Sustainable farming
6 Warm secure affordable homes for everyone and that is a human right
7 A real poverty action plan
8 ACC policy
9 Fair balanced broadcasting initiatives
10 Disability policy
11 Drug reform
12 The Green plan for the economy
13 Safe food policy
14 A new approach for community action and support
15 Climate change
16 Youth affairs and transport
17 Chloe Swarbrick , Ricardo Menéndez March
Seymour puts the knife in and twists it like the Monster turned on Dr Frankenstein lusting after freedom.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300117874/election-2020-david-seymour-tells-voters-to-skip-the-knockoff-cover-band-and-choose-act-over-national
Long past time the Gnats faced an existential threat. Wonder if the Epsom cuppa deal is affected – he might live to regret it.
When a party gets the role of Hot New Flavour they get lots of boosting ("on the march!") and very little scrutiny ("but where are they marching to? who's in their army?"). See Dunne/UF 2002.
It's probably too late to expect the media to put ACT under the microscope ("so David, you think gun owners should have military assault rifles, because that's how you voted in Parliament, right? Gonna try and bring back the slaughter weapons?").
We can only hope that when they get into Parliament they show themselves for what they are. And that Seymour enjoys having a caucus as much as Hide did (spoiler: they went feral).
Tova loves ACT….and never fails to mention the green school debacle (not) as though it has equivalence with climate change policy etc
Why is ACT above the Greens in the list above?
@Incognito 9
The more seats ACT gets the better though right? They’re taking them off National which is great, but it also increases the likelihood of an unruly ACT party in the next parliament, just like NZ First after the 1996 election. Seymour is going to be so busy managing that caucus of newbies.
I don’t have a problem with any Party or MPs getting into Parliament as long as it doesn’t depend on Epsom-styled dodgy deals, which could be perverting the proper proportionality of NZ Parliament.
I wonder how many Epsomalis will vote for Paora this time.
ACT is the party of perpetual scandals anyway.
Interesting to see the media blackout on Advance NZ in the polls. They cannot hide the missing 8% in their graphic though, presumably that is what they are actually on.
Polling puts Advance NZ around 1-2%.
If they were on 8% this would be billed as an 'amazing unprecedent poll result'.
I suggest reading the poll, not the graphic on the Standard. There's no missing 8%.
Advance have got zilch.
Are you saying the graphic is fake?? "There's no missing 8%" – Well that is what someone who works for Reid would say….
Well that is what someone who believes in conspiracy theories would say…
or
Well that is what someone who doesn’t independently check out the facts before they spout nonsense would say…
The graphic. The full graphic …
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/09/nz-election-2020-newshub-reid-research-poll-shows-labour-governing-alone-as-national-languishes-in-the-20s.html
Two seperate graphics Observer.. and they can be easily faked….
Anyway it doesn't square with reliable insider information.
https://twitter.com/BillyTeKahika/status/1309365481938194432
From who? A conspiracy doughnut with an agenda who can't wear a face mask properly? Or the national party whose figures have been proven to be totally trustworthy and free of holes? lol
I wonder who that reliable insider was. They seem to know stuff that the pollsters don’t.
Why is the party with 6.3 listed above the one with 6.5?
Or not when you look at the info Newshub have for the others in the article..
Adding those to the four parties that are going to make it into Parliament is 98.9% so at most Advance NZ could be 1.1% but even that is unlikely given Vision NZ (the Tamaki rabble) weren't mentioned. More likely I would guess is that 1.1% is split between those two (along with any other micro parties not yet accounted for) with none being above 0.9%..
the 'media blackout' of Regress NZ is actually the media not bothering to report on the sideshow with is Te Kahika & Ross. That "party" soaks up a few of the fringe elements but is otherwise pretty irrelevant.
He is still a little man who wants to be a big man, and if Key had not played politics, Rimmer would not even figure.
We have to realise how lucky we are.
Australia will fudge their unemployed figures by not counting 3 out of 4, will sell coal to who ever and community spread of covid will quietly continue until the vaccine.
I have relatives in Melbourne NSW and the Gold Coast, so we hear how it really is.
Help was late and so narrowly focussed many were not assisted.
Labour are not perfect, neither are the Greens, but 66% at least, prefer them as a team.
The world recognises the qualities of Jacinda Ardern and her team, and the qualities of New Zealanders during this crisis.
Now I know some here will say I am biased, well woohoo!!
Always interested to hear more from people on the ground in places like Aus. We need reminders of how lucky we are here.
I think the concept of 'Australia' has been a bit of a mirage during the last few months.Each state and territory has had a different trahectory with the federal governent almost irrelevant. I am almost a defacto resident of Queensland at the moment and in this state with a population similar to NZ, there have only been 6 deaths, and fewer cases than NZ. Life is more or less normal apart from the constant cry to open the borders. SA, Tas., NT, ACT and WA haven't had any community transmission for weeks. The big stand out is Victoria which has made strategic mistakes, which also affected NSW to a much lesser degree. The biggest mistake was not so much the use of private quarantine security guards, but the too slow decision to lock down Melbourne. NZ may have had similar problems with the border but was faster at its response. The big issue hanging over Oz which will transcend the Covid situation will be the climate change bogey. The summer bush fire season hasn't started yet, but there already warnings about a likely stronger cyclone season just to remind Australians that CC hasn't gone away!
The NZPP blackout is likely because their supporters are all Nutters. Sure …vulnerable, mentally deficient, rabbit holers will vote at the fringes of the political spectrum and Billy certainly seems to be scooping up any and all of those who are willing to throw cash into his personal slush "get rich quick" fund. Brian Tamaki must be spewing. LOL
Think about it:
The story of the election is going to be that the whole Act foothold is founded on the Man Who Can't Count.
This will be the Paul Goldsmith Big Mistakes I Have Made Memorial Election.
There's probably another book he can write. Or maybe mate Hooton could do it for him.
Paul is probably out there pulling down hoardings as I write.
I've just seen Audrey Young opining "With less than one week to go until advance voting starts, the poll would see three frontbenchers ousted, Paul Goldsmith, Michael Woodhouse and Nicola Willis, and 14 other MPs."
I don't necessarily think that will be the case but the scenario would be so lovely. The highlight is the golden Goldsmith possibility.
Maybe Woodhouse can roust up some of hordes anonymous 'homeless men' to ride their white chargers to his rescue.
Interesting to see how voters have shifted their choices.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/09/newshub-reid-research-poll-for-the-first-time-exclusive-polling-shows-how-voting-habits-changed-since-last-election.html
As stated in a story by Rod Oram called "Why National is no longer the party of business"
I posted more about this on Open Mike comment 23 along with the link
https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-27-09-2020/#comment-1754006
can you explain how they got a 40% swing from GP to Lab, given 6.27% in 2017 and 6.5% in this poll?
I can try 🙂
40% of Green voters (2017) switch to Labour, i.e. 40% of 6.3%, which amounts -2.5%.
4.8% of Labour voters (2017) switch to Greens, i.e. 4.8% of 36.9%, which amounts to +1.8%.
In addition, the Greens may have picked smaller fractions from the other parties and possibly from the undecided voters and there may be some ‘rounding errors’. Without the full report, it is guess work 😉
ok, so the 40% thing is a tad misleading (presumably the other figures are too).
I so want one of these for NZ,
Not sure it was a tad misleading. Possibly incomplete, yes. We cannot tell from Tova’s verbiage.
Yes, wouldn’t it be great to have such info on NZ voting behaviours. Quite possibly, it does exist but it isn’t shared with the public.
The info is here but I don’t know if it has been graphed:
https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2017/statistics/split-votes-all.html
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/26-10-2017/the-tick-splitters-how-new-zealanders-used-their-two-votes-a-visualisation/
There might be more …
It could also be that some TOP voters (2% in 2017) , Some Mana voters and even shock some Tory voters (I know people so out of touch they just vote based off their favorite colour ) have gone to green whole a bunch of labour voters who strategically voted green in 2017 have gone back to Labour but haven been replaced with slithers of either or both returning soft greenies from labour or new strategic labour voters.
2 polls inside the past week, both showing pretty much the same. Baring some major calamity you can read the following
National is not going to win the election. Collins has done nothing more than what Bridges or Muller could have done. A swathe of MPs gone and some wondering why they bothered to roll Bridges when they did.
Labour are close to being able to government alone
The Greens will get in.
Act will increase its numbers
Winston First gone
The minor parties like conservative usefully wasting some of the right wing vote and others like TOP mopping up a bit.
The Regress NZ party shows up, just, and unless Northlanders all smoke a huge amount of green on election day Bill Te Kahika has about as much chance of winning his seat as North Harbour has of winning the Mitre10 Cup. And their other “co founder” might be facing some time in jail post election, having himself discovered North Harbour probably had MORE chance than he did of holding his seat.
The thing to ponder I guess is who will replace Collins post election and how long will it take.
Collins could bailout at anytime.
It's easy to forget that National leaders who lost have stuck around for a long while after the election. Shipley 1999, English 2002, Brash 2005. On average, they lasted about a year before a new leader took over.
The problem is that the next leader has to fight the 2023 election, otherwise they just keep playing musical chairs. And they can't give Luxon the leadership before he's even sat down. So the loser has to be a caretaker until the new caucus is ready for the change. Hard to imagine Judith embracing that role.
She seems to have done enough to turn even more people off of National.
Bridges may have actually kept National in the 30s.
Within 6 months and Collins and Brownlee will be retiring for personal reasons.
I should have added the following
Jones won't save Winston First. I believe he will have a respectable showing though.
The potential turn up might be the Maori Party getting a seat or 2. Not expecting it but won't be surprised if it happens.
And what of the small parties fortunes after the election.
I expect the largest of the small parties, National, to continue.
Cannot see TOP going much longer. There heyday has been and gone with Morgan.
I would expect the Brian Tamaki party might also quickly fold. They tried before and quickly flopped and disappeared.
The Conservatives also had their Zenith before Colin Craig was shown to be a complete drop kick. They might decide to hang around though, at least until National gets its shit together and gathers those voters back into the fold.
The Maori Party, if they fail to win a seat will find it hard but might just decide to continue building for another tilt at 2023.
Winston First might simply wither away. Not sure Winnie will have another start from scratch in him but you should not write him off. I cannot see a 'fragments of Winston' party, if he quit, surviving if not in parliament.
The irrelevant Regressives might try and survive post election however one of their leaders might need to do that work from inside a cell block and the other will probably find another tin foil hat issue to crusade on.
So post election I would predict only National, Maori and Conservative parties continuing on, and maybe Winston First.
Wouldn't it be funny if Labour had a 1 seat majority to govern alone. They would still need a supporting party incase of the unexpected.
I think NZF is a wasted vote.
I'm enjoying the latest episode of "Having It Both Ways: The War On Logic" (an occasional series, comes out with every opinion poll, on Channel Blue).
Nat spinners claim Labour are down 10 points. Yes, that's true. But only if the last poll was accurate. They insisted it wasn't.
The previous Newshub poll was famously a "rogue". National "proved" this by producing/inventing their own numbers …
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/08/nz-election-2020-gerry-brownlee-claims-national-is-on-about-40-percent.html
Asked what numbers their internal polling is suggesting, Brownlee said "around about the 40 percent mark".
We should not presume to doubt the gospel according to Gerry. They were 40, now 30. So in fact it's National who are down 10 points in this poll. According to them, anyway.
If only there was a better way of finding out which party voters really support. Oh, hang on, there was … and it was due to happen last week. Judith wanted it delayed – so it was.
How's that working out for you, Judith?
Yeah, couple of good points there. Nats on 40 was wishful thinking, and the delay of a month to give them a fighting chance hasn't helped so far.
Fighting their way out of a paper bag seems surprising hard. Centrists remain unimpressed. The apparent preference for JC as Nat leader that persisted in polling for quite a while seems to have been a chimera.
Too early to call a Labour landslide? Perhaps, but I'll go there anyway. Only thing that can stop it coming now is some kind of a surprise that changes mass perceptions significantly. Dirty tricks brigade must be doing serious head-scratching…
I was curious to see what those in the kiwibog are making of the poll news. Looks like denial, trying to talk up a 5% Nat rise and 10% Labour drop, plus some who are being realistic. You get mirror-image bias of course, such as all the blathering that Tova is prejudiced against National – which nicely balances all the comments you get here that she's prejudiced against Labour.
A guide to sussing out the redneck vote:
Jacinda may be polling well but I still think that it is pathetic that she will not say what she is voting on cannabis when she has been open on medicinal cannabis, abortion and euthanasia.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300117812/election-2020-if-jacinda-ardern-supports-cannabis-legalisation-she-should-say-so
Basically Labour and the Greens stuffed it up.
The Greens' policy in the 2017 campaign was to legalise. They had to settle for a referendum because NZF (and some in Labour) wouldn't have provided the numbers in Parliament.
If Labour and the Greens win the expected majority in 2020, they could have left it to Parliament. But now they can't (politically, realistically). They gambled and will probably lose.
A referendum in an election campaign is inevitably overshadowed. Jacinda made a hard-headed call to prioritise the Labour vote. The essential quandary is: how many MPs is it worth losing, for the sake of a "Yes" vote?
I think her answer would be "none". It's a shame, it's a missed opportunity, but it was effectively decided by the confidence and supply deal back in 2017. Coulda, shoulda … didn't.
So you think the Greens should not have pushed this issue until conditions were perfect? We could wait forever. Fuck, Labour promised a referendum in the 1984 election!
They gambled on a referendum, and polling around 2017 suggested a 50-50 chance.
But again … a referendum at the same time as a general election is certain to be overshadowed. There was far more coverage for the far more trivial flag referendum, because it was between elections. Sorry, but being aware of that is a really basic requirement for getting the win. Build a campaign, a coalition. Where are the events, the coverage, the faces, the whole visibility of a campaign? It's not there (and Covid is a factor, but not the only one).
Everyone is assuming she supports legalisation. Maybe she does or maybe she doesn’t?
But it’s certainly true that without another Labour woman PM wading in their behalf the hopeless pro-legalisation campaign would be dead on arrival.
Drug dealers and alcohol pushers will be overjoyed
Yep, we've had significant backsliding in recent months and the latest poll showing support for the proposed law is down to a third of the electorate suggests two thirds prefer the black market to fund gangs instead of liberating the oppressed minority.
That's mainstreamers for you. Full of shit. Pretend to believe in civil rights, but vote for closet fascism (Nat voters) and closet stalinism (Lab voters).
@observer 20.1
I couldn’t agree more. Acquiescing to NZFirst’s demand for a referendum was pretty shortsighted and dumb. If we get a no vote then the issue is shelved for the foreseeable future. Labour and the Greens should have played a smarter more long term game. A Labour/Green coalition has always been a possibility for 2020. They could have just waited a bit and legislated decriminalisation like Trudeau did in Canada via a confidence vote.
I might have more sympathy for the demands that Jacinda lend some of her star power to the yes campaign if it wasn’t for the fact that, Helen Clark aside, the yes campaign has been a total joke. Whoever was in charge of the yes vote campaign clearly couldn’t organise a lie down in a bloody mortuary. So you’ll end up with the result you deserve and it’s a shame because legalisation is a no-brainer.
@Dennis Frank 21.1.1
Hey Dennis maybe stop castigating voters for not doing what you think they should do. And concentrate your ire on the bloody useless yes campaign organisers. I know Covid hasn’t helped but it has been been one of the the most inept referendum campaigns you’ll ever see. Saved only by the considerable effort Helen Clark has put in to rescue it from itself.
I do agree with you Scott – casting my mind back to the MMP campaign, it wasn't just Rod Donald's leadership, it was collective dynamism to create a better political path to the future for Aotearoa. I get no credit for that because I didn't help (dirty politics by leftists within the Greens had alienated me by then).
The problem nowadays is lack of minority rights focus. There's an exploration of that here (where I tossed in a few comments): https://theconversation.com/the-missing-question-from-new-zealands-cannabis-debate-what-about-personal-freedom-and-individual-rights-146304#comment_2342816
I note ACT or Twirker Party promises a lot. but arent they just a alternative for people who dont want Judith Collins but want National Govt.? I never heard any true costings from Twirker Party [ ACT] . Seymour is just full of talk.
As for Green Party after them refusing to sign any other projects off unless they got there Green School. For that and holding Govt to ransom they are better off out of Govt and lets hope there Support falls below 5% so they no longer get into Parliament.
After all Greens are just Glorified protesters.
[Good morning, Steve. You seem to be new here so here’s some advice on basic rules of this site. Please stick to the facts and don’t try to create some BS narrative to suit your thinking. FYI, Parties don’t sign off on Government decisions, not even the Green Party. I highly recommend you read this site’s Policy before you comment again. Have a nice day, Steve – Incognito]
See my Moderation note @ 9:59 AM.
Some truth can be taken from Steve's comment I think. The mention of Greens being Glorified Protesters is so true. If it wasn't for Green protesting about environment matters for decades, we would still be slumping round knuckle-dragging some distance away from Square One.
So I and all thoughtful others Glorify the Greens for being the great people who have stuck with the mahi, along with most Maori aiming at kaitiaki roles, through the thick and thin for so long.
Yay the Greens!
Steve and you share the same opinion, which doesn’t make it factually true.
Steve was factually incorrect.
Steve has been nailing his colours to the mast, which is fine, but making up BS to suit his bias is not.
The act that Seymour is best known for is twerking, not twirking. So Twirker Party isn't a fair description, unless twirking is yet another bizarre behaviour I haven't heard of.
Twerking + smirking = twirking?
play on Worker Party?
Smirking.
Tworking?
for some reason how I'm seeing Seymour is some smocking.
Yeah, me too! And smirking and perhaps, smoking (though he's holding his fag behind his back).
Judith Collins doesn't see RMA reform as a complex problem. Just repeal the whole Act and it's job done.
And she will also get rid of those pesky water quality rules that Labour brought in. They simply prevent farmers doing whatever they want to our rivers.
We might do well to bear in mind that this latest Reid Research poll was largely conducted before the Leaders' Debate (Fieldwork: Sep 16-23) / Leaders' Debate Sep 22. (Vast majority of fieldwork would've been over by final day).
You never know, Judith's highly theatrical pouting & eye-rolling might just've won back many a faint Nat heart.
What about the money or the bag inducement? How many days after the money got dangled as a lure did those defecting centrists have to consider returning to National before the polling ceased?
It looks like the ploy was a total failure, eh? But if enough centrists are still musing about the thing, Jacinda's mystery in her bag may not have sufficient mystique. "My plan is a cunning surprise! I won't even decide what it is until I see the election result!"
Another Colmar Brunton/TVNZ poll out tonight, apparently. So that should cover it.