Latest Roy Morgan – Labour + Green ahead

Written By: - Date published: 7:20 pm, January 22nd, 2014 - 87 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

The first Roy Morgan poll of the year is out.  Labour + Green is at 46% and National is at 43.5%.  Labour is on 33.5% and the Greens are on 12.5%. Support between these parties is still bouncing around.

The Maori Party is at 2%, United Future surprisingly on 0.5% and ACT appropriately on 0%.

This is going to be an interesting year …

lprent: NZ First on 4% with their usual bouncing around 4-5%. Conservatives hit their peak again at 2.5%.

87 comments on “Latest Roy Morgan – Labour + Green ahead”

  1. Anne 1

    Nice lead in to Cunliffe’s State of Nation speech.

    Could it be the Nats polling has been telling them something similar? Hence the Slater attacks and the upsurge in slanderous accusations. Have a look at Gower’s first political offering for the year:

    http://www.3news.co.nz/Labour-will-honour-deep-sea-drilling-agreements/tabid/1607/articleID/329376/Default.aspx

    Conveniently cuts Cunliffe off at the start when he mentions the various provisos Labour will put in place.

    • Colonial Viper 1.1

      This poll and the next one reflects the upshot of many individual family holiday barbecue yarns. As such, its looking promising.

  2. Zorr 2

    I like the Roy Morgan because it has such an established history. Even if the individual polls don’t matter, it’s like climate change – the trend is very obvious (John Key has spent too much political capital) and we, on the left, just need to continue putting in a good performance until the election to ensure that the support for National is eroded enough that we can start getting to work repairing the damage to our society.

    • mickysavage 2.1

      Yep and …

      1. Doorknock

      2 Talk to our neighbours

      3. Make sure that everyone is enrolled

      4. Deliver pamphlets

      5. Put up billboards

      6. Rest

      Then …

      Repeat 1 to 6 …

    • Anne 2.2

      we, on the left, just need to continue putting in a good performance until the election…

      That's the joy of Cunliffe. He will make a few mistakes for sure, but he can be relied on to put in a good performance at all times. For that matter so does Russel Norman – cool, calm and collected.

      I welcome a debate between Labour and the Greens on deep sea oil drilling. I see that as a healthy sign. I confess to being betwixt and between on this issue. On the one hand I am with the Greens on the importance of the environmental issues involved, but on the other hand it seems a practical step to take advantage of the potential for oil in our waters provided it is undertaken with every precaution. There will be many voters like me who would welcome a proper debate on this issue.

      • mickysavage 2.2.1

        Agreed Anne and TV3 were really naughty tonight in their reporting.

        Firstly Labour and the Greens do not have to agree on every issue, in fact this is an impossibility. The Greens will always be more staunch on some issues.

        Secondly TV3 spun David’s comments wildly out of context. He did talk about increasing safety standards and the general gist would be that off shore drilling would be harder. I do not understand the Greens to support an absolute moratorium although I stand to be corrected on this.

        Thirdly our society still depends on oil which means that we have to keep drilling the stuff. But we need to wean ourselves off it and we need to deal with the CO2 that it produces.

        • karol 2.2.1.1

          It sounds like an absolute moratorium to me – from the Greens.

          NZ Herald today:

          Greens Co-leader Russel Norman said his party opposed deep sea oil exploration because of the “pretty significant” risk of immediate environmental damage but also because of the contribution new oil finds would make on climate change.

          While the Greens refuse to set out bottom lines in terms of post-election talks, Dr Norman said there were clearly differences between his party and Labour, “but that doesn’t mean we can’t work together’.

          “It will clearly be one of the issues on the table if we’re in a position to negotiate after the next election and there will be differences in views around it. We’ll just have to negotiate and the relative negotiating strength will depend on the election outcome.”

          Green Party website:

          Deep sea drilling isn’t worth the risk

          But both parties are focusing on the risks as the main issue.

          Glower was over-exaggerating the conflict between the parties on this.

          • mickysavage 2.2.1.1.1

            Thanks karol and I think the two parties ought to be able to and will inevitably disagree on some issues. Some will prefer the Green’s position on the issue because they are utterly unconvinced on the ability of the oil companies to drill safely.

            • Colonial Viper 2.2.1.1.1.1

              Safe drilling and climate change effects are two important considerations.

              A third however is that of energy sovereignty. Exchanging real MJ of energy for electronically created currency makes no sense.

              NZ can benefit both more, and more directly, from those energy deposits by holding on to these fossil fuel fields with 100% ownership as untapped strategic energy reserves.

              There will come a time when our grandchildren will be very glad that this generation had the foresight to do just that.

              • Zorr

                In my experience, there are two sane (depending on your viewpoint) approaches to climate change and the use of oil:

                1) To husband our finite resources for the benefit of society at large in order to smoothly transition to an after-oil economy where we retain some of the current trappings of convenience but have cut away anything that we can’t reproduce the effects of without further damaging the environment (and this is the one I personally support)

                2) To declare war on climate change and do everything we can to stop the juggernaut that is the global economy before it drives us all over the edge of completely irreversible change that will leave our civilization in tatters (and this is the one that I am in favor of every time the latest round of rich person back slapping happens)

                With regards this, I feel that the Norway model when used to increase our energy independence, provide safer and fairer working conditions for oil workers in NZ and siphoning a significant percentage of the revenue to funding climate change research and mitigation.

                Though, having written all this sensible stuff, it still feels like the simplest road is to pull it all down and start again considering that the power overwhelmingly rests with the few and that as long as we let them retain that power, they will fight tooth and nail to keep it.

              • jcuknz

                Then as they become more valuable some ‘big brother’ will step in and take them away from us … and what do we have to stop them …. Tiger Moths and Piper Cubs?

          • Frank Macskasy 2.2.1.1.2

            “Glower was over-exaggerating the conflict between the parties on this.”

            Of course he was.

            It makes him sound ‘authoritive’.

            So more will tune in to TV3 News.

            So they can sell more advertising.

            Bullshit upon bullshit.

        • Skinny 2.2.1.2

          If you cut through Paddy’s sensational spin, the overarching message was clear from Cunliffe that is regulation is going to be in vogue in a new approach under a Labour Government. The message was loud and clear and there is not only a National audience, but a World audience that will take a steer from this approach. It’s exciting times, timing is everything and that time is now!

      • AmaKiwi 2.2.2

        Anne: “I welcome a debate between Labour and the Greens on deep sea oil drilling.”

        No! That’s divide and conquer. Whatever policy a Labour/Green government arrives at will be light years ahead of what we’ve got now.

        My Labour/Green deep sea drilling policy: “We oppose the current industry controlled policy. The oil and our coastal waters belong to the people. Their interests come first.”

      • Lloyd 2.2.3

        Anne, there is more identified oil in the world than should ever be used if we are to avoid the worst effects of climate change and ocean acidification from co2 production. Leave the stuff under the sea!

        New Zealand has amazing wind, wave and tidal resources we haven’t looked at tapping. Lets use them first before destroying our coastline.

  3. Te Reo Putake 3

    No sign of Dotcom’s vanity project/Orcon advert (though the polling period only covered a few days after the announcement). And, happily, no sign that going golfing with Obama makes a blind bit of difference to Kiwi voters.

    • Pascal's bookie 3.1

      Colin Craig got a slight bounce from all his coverage, to put him as popular as the rest of national’s mates put together. No wonder Key was desperately courting Peters today, telling everyone that of course Peters will come crawling to national. And he’s probably right, but desperation all around.

      And the right track/wrong track took a big jump with all of the ‘rockstar economy’ talk, but it didn’t translate to support for the Nats. That will have them squirming with interest rate rises just around the corner.

    • karol 3.2

      As far as I understand, the Internet Party is not registered yet – so no way it’d figure in the poll.

      • Te Reo Putake 3.2.1

        Not sure, karol. ‘Other’ scored 1%. Up 0.5%. I assume that’s where their support would be recorded, even if they’re not registered.

      • freedom 3.2.2

        karol, as there is a specific reference to Kim Dotcom from Gary Morgan it is reasonable to deduce that the Internet Party was referenced in the poll. I could not find any other specifics though.

        Gary Morgan says …
        In addition, Internet entrepreneur Kim Dotcom has announced his intention to start a new political party, the Internet Party to contest this year’s election. Dotcom is still facing extradition to the United States in relation to his now defunct file sharing site, Megaupload. The extradition hearing is now due to take place in July 2014 – only four months before the election.

        I also doubt we can read too much into the time frame he mentions, unless the plan really is to push the election back as far as possible, so Obama can annoint NZ soil before the G20 and JK and the NZ MSM collectively wet themselves.

    • Sanctuary 3.3

      The thing is our political establishment and the media pack that swarms around Key are way more pro-American than the average New Zealander, and kow-towing to the Americans can easily backfire.

      A lot of New Zealanders have a significant anti-American streak, and seeing our PM so obviously on side with the US president for being such a good boy grates with our nationalist self-image of being independent, nuclear free and all that sort of thing.

      From my soundings, most people saw the golf session for what it was – a pet getting his reward.

    • David H 3.4

      But TRP don’t forget he’s got ‘Wil’s and Kate coming out with George for Key to Drool over and get a million Photo’s taken for his album. It’ll be more mental masturbation for Key, complete with the goofy look.

      • Te Reo Putake 3.4.1

        I’m picturing the NZ Herald front page headlines already:

        Royal Tour Exclusive! Baby George takes first steps, heads straight to Uncle John.

        Royal Tour Update! “Toddler Prince’s first words: “Vote National”.

        Royal Tour Photo Shock! Stain on nappy looks like PM.

        • Anne 3.4.1.1

          Royal Tour Exclusive! Baby George takes first steps, heads straight to Uncle John.

          That’s only because when Uncle John saw which way Baby George was heading he stepped in from of him.

  4. Te Reo Putake 4

    Just did the seat allocator exercise. Assuming that all current parties retain their current electorate seats, it’s 61 for the right, 60 for the left. If the Maori Party only win 1 seat, it’s still the same, as they get 2 list MP’s. However, no MP, no majority for Key. In that scenario, LP+GP is 61, right 59.

    If NZF get 5%, then the situation is that National could form a majority gov’t with Winston or a minority gov’t if NZF agree not to vote them down.

    Remember, these are the best case scenarios for the right. Any further downward movement and they have no options at all.

    • weka 4.1

      Snap. Mine below left ACT out, which gives 60 MPs on each side.

      • Te Reo Putake 4.1.1

        I thought about dropping ACT, weka, but Epsom tory voters are sheep. Maybe they think of themselves as a better class of woolly backs, merinos perhaps, but they’re sheep none the less. Ultimately, they’ll vote whichever way John tells them to, which means Boscowan will be their MP after November.

    • Zorr 4.2

      I don’t know if I would laugh or cry under that situation if Winston refused both sides. By not going in to coalition with National/Labour, he would be outside of Government but every 5 seconds someone would be knocking on his door begging his indulgence…

      mmm… tail wags dog…

      • You_Fool 4.2.1

        I think in that situation both main parties would risk going back to the polls to get a workable government, and both would attack Peters in attempt to push his support below 5% – unfortunately I think this would work out better for Nat in terms of voter turnout, but it would be close.

  5. weka 5

    Putting that into the calculator, it looks like an even tie (I left ACT out for interest’s sake). Wild cards: Maori seats (I put the MP in for 2 electorates, but their % gives them 3 seats); UF; NZF reaching the threshold or not; what happens to the Epsom seat.

    Green Party 16
    Labour Party 43
    Mana 1
    = 60

    Māori Party 3
    National Party 56
    United Future 1
    = 60

    http://www.elections.org.nz/voting-system/mmp-voting-system/mmp-seat-allocation-calculator?asPercentage=1&partyName_0=ACT+New+Zealand&partyVote_0=0&electorateSeats_0=0&partyName_1=Alliance&partyVote_1=0&electorateSeats_1=0&partyName_2=Aotearoa+Legalise+Cannabis+Party&partyVote_2=0&electorateSeats_2=0&partyName_3=Conservative+Party&partyVote_3=2.5&electorateSeats_3=0&partyName_4=Democrats+for+Social+Credit&partyVote_4=0&electorateSeats_4=0&partyName_5=Green+Party&partyVote_5=12.5&electorateSeats_5=0&partyName_6=Labour+Party&partyVote_6=33.5&electorateSeats_6=0&partyName_7=Libertarianz&partyVote_7=0&electorateSeats_7=0&partyName_8=Mana&partyVote_8=0.5&electorateSeats_8=1&partyName_9=M%C4%81ori+Party&partyVote_9=2&electorateSeats_9=2&partyName_10=National+Party&partyVote_10=43.5&electorateSeats_10=0&partyName_11=New+Zealand+First+Party&partyVote_11=4&electorateSeats_11=0&partyName_12=United+Future&partyVote_12=0.5&electorateSeats_12=1&partyName_opt_0=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_0=0&electorateSeats_opt_0=0&partyName_opt_1=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_1=0&electorateSeats_opt_1=0&partyName_opt_2=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_2=0&electorateSeats_opt_2=0&partyCount=13&optPartyCount=3&action=Calculate+parliamentary+seats

    • dave 5.1

      except moari party traitor scum party to much torrie hugging 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000zero!

      • Flip 5.1.1

        I think the Maori party would go left if they thought it would get them into government so it would be a clear majority to the left.

    • dave 5.2

      i actually think labour proble closer the 39 percent greens it nats are around 40 percent at this stage greens proble 10 percent

      • alwyn 5.2.1

        Well I suppose I could, with just as much validity as you, claim that I think that Labour are probably closer to 25% and National are around 55%.
        How much validity have I for this view? Precisely none, which is exactly the same as you have for yours.
        If you are going to talk about numbers you use the ones the poll gives you or you don’t bother.

        • Colonial Viper 5.2.1.1

          With Shearer, I used to say that Labour’s natural range sat around 30% to 33%.

          With DC I think that has moved up just slightly, to 32% to 36%.

          Time will tell how this all pans out.

  6. Jim 6

    I see this poll result as a danger sign for the left. I expect NZF, UF, Mana, Maori and Conservative to all make it into parliament, which suggests maybe 61 seats out of 122 to the ‘right’, 55 to the ‘left’ and 6 to NZF. That can’t end well for the left.

    • Sanctuary 6.1

      I don’t agree, I am pleasantly surprised by this poll – Key and Colin Craig have had all the media over Xmas and Labour/Greens none, but their vote has stayed solid and National’s slow ebb has continued.

      National’s polling must be telling the same story, Key’s desperation in wooing Peters is evidence of that.

      • ScottGN 6.1.1

        Me too Sanctuary. I was expecting a bit of a bounce for National actually with the country on holiday and Key’s photo op with his golfing buddy Obama.

        • David H 6.1.1.1

          Well they do say a picture is worth a thousand words. In Key’s case it’s BLAND BLAND BLAND BLAND BLAND BLAND BLAND BLAND BLAND BLAND etc etc

  7. middxkea 7

    Fairly obviously the left need to look for a party who is going to win an electorate seat and vote for them
    in prefence to labour and the Greens. Hm that would be Mana

  8. Sanctuary 8

    Without Turia & Sharples the MP will go with Labour, and merge with Mana before the 2017 election.

  9. Sacha 9

    Please, can we stop abbreviating the Maori Paty as ‘MP’. Means Member of Parliament to way more people. Spell out the other. May not need to for long.

  10. tricledrown 10

    ha ha lol lbl

  11. Markymark 11

    The poll as bad as it is for National, indicates that they would still be able to form a government. The Maori party would ultimately be Kingmaker ( this is assuming Colin Craig gets gifted East Coast Bays – a fairly safe assumption given recent Key overtures).

    Nat: 54
    Conservatives: 3
    ACT: 1
    Dunne: 1

    = 59 for the CR

    Labour: 42
    Green: 16
    Mana: 1

    = 59 for the CL

    Maori Party: 3
    Total seats in the house: 121 (Assuming Maori Party loose both Turia + Sharples electorates while retaining Te Urruroa’s Flavell’s seat)

    Conclusion: Maori party would decide the govt. In all likelihood they would go with Labour.

    http://www.elections.org.nz/voting-system/mmp-voting-system/mmp-seat-allocation-calculator?asPercentage=1&partyName_0=ACT+New+Zealand&partyVote_0=0&electorateSeats_0=1&partyName_1=Alliance&partyVote_1=0&electorateSeats_1=0&partyName_2=Aotearoa+Legalise+Cannabis+Party&partyVote_2=0&electorateSeats_2=0&partyName_3=Conservative+Party&partyVote_3=2.5&electorateSeats_3=1&partyName_4=Democrats+for+Social+Credit&partyVote_4=0&electorateSeats_4=0&partyName_5=Green+Party&partyVote_5=12.5&electorateSeats_5=0&partyName_6=Labour+Party&partyVote_6=33.5&electorateSeats_6=0&partyName_7=Libertarianz&partyVote_7=0&electorateSeats_7=0&partyName_8=Mana&partyVote_8=0.5&electorateSeats_8=1&partyName_9=M%C4%81ori+Party&partyVote_9=2&electorateSeats_9=1&partyName_10=National+Party&partyVote_10=43.5&electorateSeats_10=0&partyName_11=New+Zealand+First+Party&partyVote_11=4&electorateSeats_11=0&partyName_12=United+Future&partyVote_12=0.5&electorateSeats_12=1&partyName_opt_0=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_0=1&electorateSeats_opt_0=0&partyName_opt_1=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_1=0&electorateSeats_opt_1=0&partyName_opt_2=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_2=0&electorateSeats_opt_2=0&partyCount=13&optPartyCount=3&action=Calculate+parliamentary+seats&action=See+full+calculation

    • felix 11.1

      “In all likelihood they would go with Labour.”

      Interesting assumption. What are you basing it on?

      • Tim 11.1.1

        re the conclusion ….
        the assumption perhaps that it’s only been TT (who STILL can’t get over her bitterness to HC), aided and abetted by her loyal servant PS are the ones that ran that “better to be in the tent pissing out” argument. MP voters have come to realise that what that meant was they were the ones being covered in urine.
        Of course it also assumes that they’ll no longer have any sort of influence. Not sure that’s true necessarily.

    • bad12 11.2

      The Maori Party would be the King-maker, Ha ha ha, what an assumption, the Maori Party at best can expect to retain one of it’s seats and very little of it’s party vote in 2014,

      If both Labour and the Greens do not stand candidates in the Waiariki seat then i suggest that the Mana Party’s Annette Sykes will romp home, and there goes Slippery’s majority…

  12. One Anonymous Knucklehead 12

    Still trending up then 🙂

    • geoff 12.1

      Yep and National trending down. That’s what I got out of it too. When you see a graph like the one above with individual results bouncing around a few percent then what’s the point of looking at anything but the longer term trends?

      To my eye (blinkered, leftwing, crazy wide-eyed commie fool) it looks like steady decay for National since before the 2011 election and steady rise for Labour since after the election. Greens look like they’ve held steady.

      So overall, cause for slight optimism.

  13. tricledrown 13

    The Maori Party has lost its support because it has sucked up to National.
    With no real gains for Maori
    Infact Maori are a lot worse off with big increases in unemployment especially Maori youth unemployment at record levels this is Egalitarian according To National.

  14. fisiani 14

    The sky is falling. The Cunliffe is all conquering. The Red dog will be wagged by the Green tail. The Yeah-Nah coalition is nigh. Oh woe is NZ.

  15. jcuknz 15

    So funny … all these people counting their chickens before they are hatched 🙂

  16. alwyn 16

    What I find interesting that the Labour percentage went fairly steadily down from the time Cunliffe became the leader until Christmas. Then he vanished from sight for a month. At that point the Labour Party percentage went up.
    I wonder if, now that he is back in the public view, the Labour figures will start to drop again. That would be a case of the better you get to know him the more you dislike him. It seems to be a bit like that within the Labour Party itself as in the three groups that got a vote he was least popular among the Caucus members, the ones who know him best.

    • One Anonymous Knucklehead 16.1

      What I find interesting is wishful thinking masquerading as analysis, and the stupidity of those who fail to realise their transparency.

      • alwyn 16.1.1

        Well yes, there is that too isn’t there? There will be plenty of them during the year, that is for sure.
        33.5% of the population are in that category at the moment, I see.

  17. Papamike 17

    What would worry me is that after the election is over and positions are being established to form the Government that Labour will have to concede much of the Greens policy to enable a joint coalition to be formed.
    The Greens are continually staunch in their stand.
    Labour to have the Government will have to buckle, and the Greens appear to know it – hence their effective silence to David Cunliffe’s comments re Drilling for example.

    • thechangeling 17.1

      And that is excellent if it happens. Withdrawal from FTA’s next please so we can once again make an increasing amount of what we actually consume, thus stimulating job growth, local investment and a concurrent lowering of poverty along with an increase in house ownership. The future is truly bright if the system is aligned correctly.

  18. bad12 18

    NICE!!! the first Roy Morgan of the year says to us all that 2014 is ours to win and i would suggest that Slippery the Prime Ministers speech today shows just how out of touch and vulnerable National are,

    With David Cunliffe to make a major speech on Monday, i believe this to be the first in a planned series and Metiria Turei doing the same at Wellingtons Waitangi Park on Sunday watch the miserable amount of momentum Slippery may have got from getting in first blown away by these major speeches from both major parties of the left,

    If your anywhere near Wellington on Sunday turn up at Waitangi Park coz i pick with the amount of Green radicalism apparent in Wellington this event is going to be pumping with a turnout in the thousands not the hundreds,

    The current RIFT between the Green Party and Labour being spun for all it’s worth by Slippery and the entourage of minor spinners is absolute bullshit, a simple negotiation surrounding allowing those with current licence to drill to fulfill their permitted,(under National), drilling with a tightening of the rules after that with a raising of the royalties accrued to the Government would go a long way to bringing both parties of the left closer together on this issue,

    Personally i wont rid of Slippery and this National Government and would urge everybody when these divisive issues arise to not simply leap aboard the bandwagon but instead use your thought processes to come up with what might be a suitable compromise position for both Labour and the Green Party….

  19. Penny Bright 19

    Watch support for PM John Key and National drop, as layer after layer of the New Zealand ‘corrupt, corporate onion’ is revealed ……..

    I predict that 2014 will be the year that New Zealand is rocked to the core by a series of corrupt political / corporate scandals, the same way New South Wales was similarly rocked by Police corruption scandals in the late 1980s.

    As a result, I predict a significant growth in public support for legislative change that will enshrine a framework for genuine ‘transparency and accountability’ at both central and local government level, and within the judiciary.

    Mark my words ……………

    Penny Bright

  20. Penny Bright 20

    Watch support for PM John Key and National drop, as layer after layer of the New Zealand ‘corrupt, corporate onion’ is revealed ……..

    I predict that 2014 will be the year that New Zealand is rocked to the core by a series of corrupt political / corporate scandals, the same way New South Wales was similarly rocked by Police corruption scandals in the late 1980s.

    As a result, I predict a significant growth in public support for legislative change that will enshrine a framework for genuine ‘transparency and accountability’ at both central and local government level, and within the judiciary.

    Mark my words ……………

    Penny Bright

  21. Tracey 21

    Does this poll mirror nationals internal hence the scramble to join with the one man puritan parties?

    Act will get epsom so factor that in.

    Hone will presumably win his.

    Dunne will get his cos national just told every national voter in ohariu to vote for him

    Presumably wherever craig stands national voters will vote for him

    What does that do to the numbers?

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  • Climate Change: Squandering our opportunity?
    The Herald has a story today about the 400 MW of wind power currently under construction. Good news, right? Except that none of it is being driven by policy (instead, its about replacing Contact Energy's Taranaki Combined Cycle gas-fired power plant, due to shut down in 2022), and most of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Protect The King!
    To Protect and Serve: When the Prime Minister finds herself enmeshed in the coils of a full-blown political scandal, her colleagues and party comrades have only one priority: to release her as swiftly – and with as little lasting injury – as possible. Is this what Jacinda Ardern’s colleagues and ...
    4 days ago
  • The rot at the top.
    When military leaders cover up and lie to elected civilian authorities, the foundation of democratic civil-military relations is undermined because it is those authorities who are entrusted to hold the military accountable to the public that they mutually serve. But this is only true if civilian political authorities take their ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    4 days ago
  • Challenging the voting age in court
    The Make It 16 campaign to lower the voting age is launching this afternoon, and they have already announced plans to challenge the law in court:The campaign, named "Make it 16" will launch at Parliament on Friday, with plans to take their case to the High Court, testing the rights ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Israel’s elections herald a long siesta
    by Daphna Whitmore The long years of Netanyahu’s reign are drawing to an end. For years he has epitomized reactionary zionism as he oversaw hundreds of thousands of Jewish settlers seize land in the West Bank. There are now 700,000 settlers, putting an end to the myth that Israel was ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    4 days ago
  • Petrol companies promise prices will come back down once peace is restored to the Middle East
    BP, Z and Mobil all insist that petrol price hikes are temporary, “in a very literal sense.” The nation’s major petrol providers are trying to allay customer fears over prices, promising that they’ll move to lower them again “immediately” when the Middle East is returned to its formerly peaceful state. ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    4 days ago
  • All Blacks unveil boat for Rugby World Cup 2019
    South African coach Rassie Erasmus says he has no idea what they’re going to do about the boat. In a highly anticipated press conference this afternoon, All Blacks coach Steve Hansen has finally unveiled the team’s boat for its Rugby World Cup 2019 campaign. In a press conference that went ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    4 days ago
  • An increasingly shoddy coverup
    The Operation Burnham inquiry continued to question senior NZDF staff today, and their shoddy coverup over their knowledge of civilian casualties continue to fall apart. If you recall, first, we were asked to believe that it was all a series of "mistakes and errors": a senior officer with multiple degrees ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • If we are to avoid making the earth uninhabitable, we need to rapidly decarbonise our civilisation, and cut emissions to zero as quickly as possible. This seems like an impossible task, but its not. Pushing hard on a few technologies and trends will let us halve emissions in a decade:Greenhouse ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • A further attack on transparency
    The Local Government Act 2002 Amendment Bill (No 2) had part of its committee stage yesterday. its a generally tedious bill about the nitty-gritty of local government reorganisation. But it includes a clause making the Local Government Commission subject to the Ombudsmen Act, and hence the OIA. Great! Except of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Ihumātao and Treaty settlements
    Yesterday Ihumātao's mana whenua reached a consensus that they would like their land back, and asked the government to negotiate with Fletcher's for its return. The government's response? Try and undermine that consensus, while talking about how doing anything would undermine existing Treaty settlements. The first is just more bad ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Protecting our history
    Its Suffrage Day, the 126th anniversary of women winning the right to vote (but not stand in elections) in New Zealand. And to celebrate, the government has bought Kate Sheppard's house in Christchurch:The government has bought Kate Sheppard's former home in Christchurch for more than $4 million. The Ilam villa ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Climate Change: Ostracising the coal-burners
    The UN climate summit is happening in new York next week, and unlike previous years, coal-burners and denier-states are not being invited to speak:Leading economies such as Japan and Australia will not be invited to speak at next week’s crunch UN climate change summit, as their continued support for coal ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Jojo Tamihere Salutes Herr Goff.
    Get Back Jojo! The elation in Mayor Phil Goff’s camp may be easily imagined as they watched social media light up in indignation at challenger John Tamihere’s "Sieg Heil to that" quip. Just when JT’s notoriously right-wing, sexist and homophobic stains were beginning to fade back into his ‘colourful’ past, ...
    5 days ago
  • Hard News: A fun but flawed weed documentary
    Patrick Gower is good value when he's high. Not that I've ever, you know, got stoned with him. But in the second part of his documentary Patrick Gower on Weed, he does what you'd expect in a modern weed documentary and immerses himself – first with a doctor, then a ...
    5 days ago
  • Candidate Survey: Western Bay of Plenty – Local Body Elections 2019
    We surveyed candidates on their attitudes to issues facing the Western Bay Region, find out what they think: “Closing the Gap” Tauranga, one of the area groups of Income Equality Aotearoa NZ Inc., has surveyed all candidates in the three local body elections to discover attitudes to some basic issues ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    6 days ago
  • Project Nettie calls on scientists to defend biology
    Please spread widely, and sign, to support science and rationalism over the new irrationalism sweeping universities and institutions.  PROJECT NETTIE Sexual reproduction, the generation of offspring by fusion of genetic material from two different individuals, evolved over 1 billion years ago. It is the reproductive strategy of all higher animals ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    6 days ago
  • I’m glad I don’t live in Auckland
    Just when I was thinking that Palmerston North's mayoral race (which includes a convicted child molester / public wanker and a convicted child beater) was the worst in the country, Auckland mayoral candidate John Tamihere opened his mouth:Auckland mayoral candidate John Tamihere is being slammed for using the words "sieg ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Index of Power Update, 2018-19: China #2
    We reprint below an article from the excellent website the Economics of Imperialism by Tony Norfield This is an update of the statistics for my Index of Power, using data for 2018-19 and discussing what a country’s ranking reflects. The major change is that China’s rank has shifted up and ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    6 days ago
  • Climate Change: A history lesson
    Why is New Zealand climate change policy so crap? The Herald this morning has a long article on the twists and turns of climate change policy in New Zealand [paywalled / depaywall script], which shows where we've been. The short version is that the government first began worrying about this ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • What the All Blacks Mean to Us
    The All Blacks have been, for more than a century, arguably the most successful International sports team in the world. But they are more than that; even for those Kiwis who are immune to the charms of rugby (and there are more than a few), the All Blacks are ambassadors ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    6 days ago
  • No one is born into the wrong body
    A short and incredibly powerful speech from a young lesbian woman. No one is born in the wrong body. ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    7 days ago
  • Contempt
    Back in June, the UK Court of Appeal ruled that that country's continued arms sales to Saudi Arabia were unlawful. So you'd expect that the UK government stopped approving them, right?Of course not:The government has apologised for breaching a court ruling against the sale of weapons to Saudi Arabia that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • Covering up the cover-up
    Yesterday NZDF officials were put on the stand about the lies they had told over Operation Burnham, making implausible claims that it was all a big mistake. But along the way, we learned they had already been put on the spot about it by a previous Defence Minister, who had ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • Not as important as they think they are
    Farmers have been whining a lot lately, about the methane targets in the Zero Carbon Bill, about Canterbury's proposed nitrogen limits, and about the government's new proposals to stop them from shitting in our lakes and rivers. These policies are "throwing farmers under the tractor", they will force farmers off ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • Behind Every Good Woman Should Stand – Another Good Woman.
    Alone, Alone, All, All, Alone: To argue that the Prime Minister is the victim of her advisers’ failure to keep her informed may offer Jacinda some measure of exoneration – but only at the cost of casting her as a hopeless political ingénue. A star-dusted muppet, whose only purpose is to ...
    7 days ago
  • Poor quality, poorly educated kiddie ‘Journalists’ spreading fake news
    In times of hysteria about the “World coming to an end” and “rising sea levels” so-called ‘Journalists’ who can barely spell words longer than four letters are having a ball! Though the majority of the Public have worked out that manmade climate change is nothing short of pseudo-science, and the ...
    An average kiwiBy admin@averagekiwi.com
    7 days ago
  • Chris Trotter on the BFD
    I don't want to give pblicity to certain parts of the internet that are better left to fester in their own irrelevance (I know, a bit like this place) but the listing of Chris Trotter as a 'author' on Cameron Slater's spinoff website, the BFD requires some explanation.Now, I don't ...
    1 week ago
  • Sex is not a spectrum
    The text below is a Twitter thread by Heather Heying that explains the essence of sexual reproduction and it long evolutionary history. She is an evolutionary biologist and a “professor-in-exile” after she and her husband, Bret Weinstein, stood up to supporters of an enforced “Day of Absence” for white staff and teachers ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Trees, aviation, and offsets
    With crunch time for new Zealand climate policy approaching, most of the New Zealand media have got on board with a global reporting effort to cover the issue. There's one strand of stories today about polling and what it shows about changing public attitudes to the crisis, but the strand ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Pissing-Off The Israelis Is A High-Risk Strategy.
    Dangerous Foes: For those readers of Bowalley Road who feel disposed to dismiss any prospect of an Israeli destabilisation of New Zealand politics, the example of the United Kingdom repays close attention. Ever since the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the British Labour Party, the Israelis have sanctioned, funded and ...
    1 week ago
  • Something to go to in Wellington
    Make It 16, the youth-led campaign to lower New Zealand's voting age, is holding an official campaign launch at Parliament this Friday from 16:30. If you'd like to attend, you can register using EventBrite here. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • A founding member responds to Peace Action Wellington
    by Don Franks It was a lovely sunny Wellington afternoon with blue skies above  the beaches.  In Courtenay Place, political activists packed out a stuffy upstairs room for an important meeting. The assembled pacifists, anarchists, communists and independent young radicals of Peace Action Wellington felt the need for a mission ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • “Mistakes and errors”
    Current and former NZDF top brass are being publicly grilled this week by the hit and run inquiry over their public responses to allegations of civilian casualties. Previously, they've claimed there were no casualties, a position which led them to lie to Ministers and to the public. Now, they're saying ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • “Homosexuality is same-sex attraction and relationships, not heterosexuals with delusions of gende...
    by Rafael D. Quiles (gender-critical gay man from Puerto Rico) The writing on the wall is right in people’s faces and people just don’t see it or don’t want to. What could actually possess a heterosexual male to want to feminize himself and claim that he is a lesbian? Because ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Trump: “Where’s my favourite dictator?”
    From the Wall Street Journal:Inside a room of the ornately decorated Hotel du Palais during last month’s Group of Seven summit in Biarritz, France, President Trump awaited a meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi. Mr. Trump looked over a gathering of American and Egyptian officials and called out in ...
    1 week ago
  • Magdalen Burns, 1983-2019, fighter for women’s liberation
    by the Redline blog collective At Redline we are very saddened to hear of the death of Magdalen Burns who passed away on the morning of Friday, September 13 (British time). Magdalen was a great fighter for the rights of women in general and lesbian women in particular, a defender ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Parliament and the Executive
    The Brexit issue has certainly brought with it a series of apparently difficult constitutional issues, many of them concerning the respective roles of the executive and parliament. Most of them arise because of the unwillingness of MPs, despite their professions to the contrary, to be bound by a constitutional rarity ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • The Abigail Article; Martyn Bradbury’s Article, and My Response
    . . This blogpost is different to my usual format of reporting on issues… Since July 1011, I have blogged on a variety of political issues; near always political and/or environmental; mostly highly critical of the previous National Government. Other issues included Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands and repression of ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    1 week ago
  • Police will have to wear silly Buckingham Palace hats from now on, says Police Minister
    Those close to the Police Minister believe the initiative may be the result of Nash “seeing a great deal” on AliExpress. In a move that comes seemingly out of nowhere, Police Minister Stuart Nash announced this afternoon that he expects all frontline staff to don bearskin hats, famously worn by ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • A sensible crackdown
    The government has released its Arms Legislation Bill, containing the second tranche of changes to gun laws following the March 15 massacre. And it all looks quite sensible: a national gun register, higher penalties for illegal possession and dealing, tighter restrictions on arms dealers and shooting clubs, and a shorter ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • California bans private prisons
    Private prisons are a stain on humanity. Prison operators explicitly profit from human misery, then lobby for longer prisons terms so they can keep on profiting. And in the US, prison companies run not only local and state prisons, but also Donald Trump's immigration concentration camps. Faced with this moral ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Why PPPs are a bad idea
    When National was in power, they were very keen on Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) - basicly, using private companies to finance public infrastructure as a way of hiding debt from the public. They were keen on using them for everything - roads, schools, hospitals. But as the UK shows, that "service" ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • A Movement That No Longer Moves.
    Moving And Shaking: There was a time when people spoke matter-of-factly about the “labour movement” – a political phenomenon understood to embrace much more than the Labour Party. Included within the term’s definition was the whole trade union movement – many of whose members looked upon the Labour Party as ...
    2 weeks ago
  • NZ ‘left’ politically embracing extreme postmodernism
    by Philip Ferguson Much of the left, even people who formally identify as marxists, have collapsed politically in the face of postmodern gender theory of the sort pioneered by American philosopher Judith Butler. For Butler even biological sex is socially constructed. “If the immutable character of sex is contested, perhaps ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • The obvious question
    The media is reporting that the (alleged) Labour party sexual assaulter has resigned from their job at Parliament, which means hopefully he won't be turning up there making people feel unsafe in future. Good. But as with everything about this scandal, it just raises other questions. Most significantly: why the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • The moment I found out that you found out, I acted swiftly
    By Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern I am every bit as angry as you are. I am every bit as disappointed as you must be. The people with power, oversight and the ability to do something about these processes within the Labour Party should be ashamed. Whoever those people are, I ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • This is why people hate property developers
    Property developers think there is an "oversupply" of houses in Auckland:High turnover rates and falling prices may be a sign that there are too many new houses going in to some parts of Auckland, commentators say. [...] Property developer David Whitburn said there was a "bit of an oversupply" in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Australia to Pacific: “Fuck you, you can all drown”
    World leaders are meeting in New York in two weeks for the 2019 Climate Action Summit, where they are expected to announce new and more ambitious targets to stop the world from burning. But the Australian Prime Minister won't be there, despite being in the USA at the time:Scott Morrison ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Implausible ignorance
    Labour Party president Nigel Haworth resigned yesterday over the party's sexual assault scandal. But while that's good news, its unlikely to take away the stench of a coverup. Because according to Paula Bennett in Parliament yesterday, pretty much everyone in the Prime Minister's office was involved as well:I have been ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour’s Fatal Flaw.
     Two-Faced? Labour insiders' commitment to the neoliberal status quo puts them at odds with their party’s membership; its trade union affiliates; and a majority of Labour voters, but this only serves to strengthen the perception they have of themselves as a special elite. Among the lesser breeds, they’ll talk up a ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Ten reasons the Tories do NOT want an election
    There has been a lot of talk about Boris Johnson wanting an election, and he has blustered with great gusto about 'chicken' Jeremy Corbyn refusing one, but I think there are many reasons why he is secretly glad he has been refused the opportunity:The Tories are an utter rabble,tearing themselves ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Prorogation Illegal, rule Scottish judges
    Scottish appeal court judges have declared that Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament in the run-up to the October Brexit deadline is unlawful. The three judges, chaired by Lord Carloway, Scotland’s most senior judge, overturned an earlier ruling that the courts did not have the powers to interfere in the prime ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Let me explain what I meant by Everyday New Zealanders
    By Simon Bridges. The following is a press release from the office of Simon Bridges, leader of The National Party. Key ora, New Zealand. Happy Maori Language Week. Look, I’m writing to you today because I want to clear something up. There’s been a lot of kerfuffle around some things ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Yes, the SIS is subject to the Public Records Act
    I understand there's some stuff going round about how the SIS "was removed from the list of public offices covered by the Public Records Act in 2017". The context of course being their records derived from US torture, which will be disposed of or sealed. The good news is that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • An evidence-based discussion of the Canadian fluoride/IQ study
    Dr. Christopher Labos and Jonathan Jarry discuss the recent Canadian fluoride/IQ research. They provide an expert analysis of the paper and its problems. Click on image to go to podcast. The critical debate about the recent ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate Change: Australia in denial
    Australia is burning down again, and meanwhile its natural disaster minister is denying climate change:Australia’s minister responsible for drought and natural disasters, David Littleproud, has said that he doesn’t “know if climate change is manmade”. Clarifying earlier comments that the question is “irrelevant” when considering the Coalition government’s response to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Philippines activist speaking on the Duterte tyranny
    Auckland Philippines Solidarity is excited to host Professor Judy Taguiwalo for a speaking tour of NZ in September. She is a well-known activist in the Philippines and was a political prisoner under the Marcos dictatorship. Professor Taguiwalo briefly served as a Cabinet member under President Duterte but was forced from ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Disgust
    I have no special insights to offer on the Labour sexual assault coverup. All I have is disgust. Disgust that an organisation could fail its people so badly. Disgust that they punished the victims rather than the perpetrator. Disgust that its party hacks are apparently blaming the victims for demanding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Speak Up for Women calls out Greens’ censorship
    This open letter to the Green Party was penned after an opinion piece by Jill Abigail, a feminist and founding member of the party, was censored by the Greens’ leadership. (Redline has reprinted her article here).The intolerance of the Green Party leaders and their acceptance of the misogyny of gender ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Member’s Day: End of Life Choice, part 3
    Today is a Member's day, and David Seymour's End of Life Choice Bill continues its slow crawl through its committee stage. They're spending the whole day on it today, though the first hour is likely to be spent on voting left over from last time. After that they'll move on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Flight to Los Angeles turned back after passengers decide they don’t want to go anymore
    An ambitious plan to fly to Los Angeles petered out into a brief sight-seeing trip and a desire to return home and get some sleep before work tomorrow. Air New Zealand has confirmed a flight to Los Angeles last night was turned back about a quarter of the way into ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Indigenous Futures: defuturing and futuring – an analytical framework for policy development?
    There appears to be consensus – by omission – that the concept of indigenous futures should be accepted at face value. So I scavenged the internet to see if I could locate an academic descriptor or a framework around how we think about it as a concept, and whether it ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    2 weeks ago
  • Cadbury rumoured to be releasing the Pineapple Trump
    Here’s another novelty chocolate to shove in your gob, New Zealand Cadbury could be seeking to make itself great again with a rumoured new release: Pineapple Trumps, a spin on its classic chocolate-encased pineapple treat and do-it-yourself tooth remover. The global confectionery manufacturer and bumbling “before” character in an infomercial, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • The coming resource war.
    During my time in the Pentagon I had the privilege of sitting down with military leaders and defence and security officials from a variety of Latin American nations. Sometimes I was present as a subordinate assistant to a senior US defence department official, sometimes as part of a delegation that ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    2 weeks ago

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