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notices and features - Date published:
12:18 pm, February 20th, 2017 - 166 comments
Categories: election 2017, mana, mana-party, maori party -
Tags: deal, hone harawira, mana party, maori party
As reported on Stuff:
Hone Harawira gets clear Te Tai Tokerau run for Mana not running against Maori Party in other seats
The Maori Party will not stand a candidate in Te Tai Tokerau against Mana leader Hone Harawira as part of a deal to claw back the Maori seats from Labour.
While Maori Party co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell holds the Waiariki seat – the other six are held by Labour MPs – including Harawira’s old seat, which he narrowly lost to Labour’s Kelvin Davis in 2014.
Under the agreement signed by the two parties in Whangarei on Monday, Harawira has agreed to not run any Mana candidates against the Maori Party in any of the other seats. …
Sounds like a good deal for the Māori Party, but…
Looking at 2014 results, the MANA-Maori deal will struggle to change any results. In 3 Maori seats, MANA+Maori candidate votes < Labour…
— Clint Smith (@ClintVSmith) February 19, 2017
Labour's Kelvin Davis: A vote for the Mana Māori deal is a vote for National
— Chris Bramwell (@ChrisBramwell) February 19, 2017
Update: the Agreement between Mana and the Māori Party, and press releases are here.
The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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Great deal for the Maori Party! I will be interesting to see how Maori/Mana try to convince Mana supporters to back the National Maori party candidates. If they instead back the Labour candidates, the Maori Party could be goneburger
Good afternoon Willie J. Your role is clear.
Yes.
Labour can kiss the Maori seats goodbye, maybe not all of them this time around but certainly, they’ll be all gone in the next couple of election cycles.
In an MMP environment, it makes a hell of a lot more sense for Maori to chart their own course.
Staying attached to Labour is a poor strategy, over 50% of the time you’ll have absolutely no say in government, far better to just be a power block that goes into coalition with the government of the day.
Even when Labour is in, BM , they do bugger all for Maori.
How come they won back most of the Māori seats then?
Split vote Maori Party and Mana, happened across the board. Also Tāmaki Makaurau was a 4 horse race with Marama Davidson who really did not campaign doing rather well. If Mana and the Māori Party were thinking long term, they would stand aside and let Marama contest that seat with Labour. I think she could take it.
I’d also add, with Nanaia Mahuta, she has a lot of support. She would probably win if she stood independent, she wouldn’t though.
So the Māori who did vote Labour are stupid because Labour does bugger all for Māori? Not saying that’s what you are saying, but wondering what the rationales are upthread.
I think the conflict between Mana And the Māori Party, was strongly upsetting to the Māori electorate. So they made a rational choice to support a party which was not in open conflict, at least in the Māori caucus. Also labour picked some names.
Names count Adam.
As a Pākehā, I hesitate to make any comments in discussions on Māori electorates but I do know a bit about Tāmaki Makaurau. I am a big fan of Marama but I doubt very much that she would be able to win Tāmaki Makaurau from Peeni Henare.
http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2014/electorate-67.html
Karen, she ran on a campaign of actively discouraging people not to vote for her. Pretty outstanding she got over 3,000 votes.
What if she actually tried? What if Māori Party stood aside? The not labour vote is 11,000 odd.
But the Māori Party are not going to stand aside for the Green Party. Why would they? Their candidate got more than twice the votes Marama got and they want to win seats for the Māori Party, not the Green Party.
Not as it stands. But one can hope.
I hope Kelvin Davis wipes the floor with him. I spend a fair bit of time in the far north and watched things go backwards at a high speed when Hone was the M.P. Hone and his family are like a disease, they thrive on discontent and divisiveness. I don’t agree with everything Kelvin does, but he’s an honest bloke who has done a lot for his electorate.
+ 100% Tarquin.
Discontent and divisiveness are not their only strengths. He plays his race card effectively too.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10569951
Plus one 1000
It isn’t going to change much, the stain of Internet-Mana remains and nobody wants a bar or what Mana supposedly ‘represents’. Nats and NZFirst will vote accordingly to ensure Hone doesn’t get in.
Other seats might be interesting depending where the Greens stand but the whole #ChangeTheGovt narrative plus the easy one liner of “a vote for the Maori party is a vote for 3 more years or National” will be easy to convey to Maori voters.
Labour has more Maori talent to be parachuted up the list, Willow-Jean Prime, Tamati Coffey and of course Willie Jackson. The Greens may bring some more Maori blood to compliment Metiria & Marama. The left represents Maori very well and may it continue after Sep 2017.
Compliment them maybe, but will they complement them? Big difference.
There’s a post up now about the Greens in Te Tai Tokerau,
https://thestandard.org.nz/the-greens-in-te-tai-tokerau/
Boom!
Hone, those of the Red Road wait for you, so much knowledge you have to share, so much inspiration and experience, they need you now more than ever. Turn to the east at dawn and you will hear them, they speak to your spirit. A’ho Brave One.
As much as I would love to see Hone back in the house, I feel he has greater things ahead of him than NZ Politics and suffering another defeat, especially at this stage in the cycle.
As for the Maori Party
I think we’re going to see the end of both Mana and Māori parties.
Pity really, they both had promise as Left parties but one sold out to the RWNJs and the other got assassinated by the mainstream parties.
Totally agree
IMO Mana can come back whereas the maori party have work to do (spin and bs) having voted for housing sales amongst other efforts.
Draco,
I know many like you think it is treasonous for the Maori Party to have anything to do with National (and I get pretty annoyed with your appellation RWNJ – do you think the only intelligent people are leftists and everyone else is a maniac).
But the alternative was to lock themselves solely to Labour, pretty much as the Greens have done. Where has that got them? Basically sidelined for the entire twenty years of their existence.
Isn’t one of the major advantages of MMP is that the new smaller parties don’t all have to rigidly tie themselves to one of the two major parties.
I appreciate that Act is always going to with National, and if the Alliance still existed it would always be with Labour.
But surely other parties have more choices than that. It applies to the Maori Party, and it should apply to the Greens, but in their case it doesn’t.
The Maori Party has got significant gains, more than would have been the case if they had permanently aligned themselves to the left. And they have survived better than any other small party that has gone into government.
If the only recipe for small parties to survive is to stay out of government, what then is the point of MMP. Surely it is to affect the make-up of government, not just to provide a speaking platform in parliament, but with no part in the executive.
Wayne, the Greens stand for two things…. a sustainable future and social justice.
On those grounds they cannot and will not go in with National.
With regards to Hone, there is nothing, as far as I am aware , tying him to the Maori Party when he wins TTK. He will definitely have nothing to do with National and rightly so.
garibaldi,
If that is what the Greens think, that the only path to social justice is through the left, well they will be stuck with Labour, welded on so to speak.
But they will always be taking the risk of NZ First shutting them out.
At least it sharpens the contest to know where parties stand.
Well, right-wing politics is by definition opposed to social justice.
Is the only choice for us to have a government?
Personally, I think we should get rid of it.
Parliament – yes, Government – no.
Have the population discuss and suggest the policies that the parliament then enacts.
And, yeah, all those gains that the mP have got over the years have left Māori generally worse off. That’s the problem with going into government with National – no matter the gains what National will always make the nation worse off.
Draco, political parties ARE a means for people to discuss and suggest policies. People who want to do these things in a proactive way tend to belong to parties.
If you’re unhappy with the vehicle of political parties, what structures and systems do you honestly think would be workable and effective? How would you ensure that the discussions were not highjacked by narrow interest groups? After all, most people don’t have the time, the inclination or (to be honest) the expertise to be constantly discussing and suggesting policies to some bunch of technocrats (which is what MPs would become). Any structures to enable such a system would quickly become hidebound and open to capture. How would this be an improvement on the status quo (ie, political parties)?
Participatory democracy.
That is what tends to happen with political parties. The rich can easily bribe/support a politician – they can’t do that for the majority of people.
Please note: Representative democracy was designed to keep the rich in power.
Then we need to change that. Less working hours, less financial stress and education open to everyone.
That is an assertion – got anything to back it up?
I see it as us governing ourselves rather than being governed. We get to own the mistakes rather than blaming a political party of any hue.
So, you get to sidestep my question about methods and simply say, “participatory democracy” but then demand backup for a statement I had already provided supporting reasoning for? Nice footwork! Of course, it still doesn’t answer any of my questions or reservations about your “it’s all so easy” approach. And, BTW, your reply is also full of unbacked assertions (eg that “representative democracy was designed to keep the rich in power”). Parliamentary democracy wasn’t the product of one designer or design group with a coherent aim to keep people disempowered – it’s evolved and been struggled over across generations, between genders and dominant and colonialised peoples.
Simplistic answers often lack substance, Draco, and I asked to see some substance to support your glib comments. I still haven’t seen any.
Participatory democracy.
Actually, you’ll find my reference for that on this site.
Yeah, actually, it was. That clique of people are still in power and still trying to prevent power from devolving to the people. Why else do you think it took so long to change NZ to a proportional system and why both the National and Labour hierarchy are against dropping the threshold?
I did not think that I would ever see Hone Harawira moving to prop up a National Government.
The Maori Party have been bad news for Maori by doing that.
It’s not propping up National, think a bit more laterally.
It’s about controlling the Maori seats so Maori can be a power block and get the best deal for Maori whoever is in government.
Wake up BM, the Maori party have, by and large, lost control over the Maori seats, due to propping up National over the last 9 years.
How is Harawira propping up National?
My comment specifically mentions the Maori party that has supported National for almost 9 years. Hone, by aligning himself with the Maori party, particularly after saying he doesn’t support those that supports National, will be perceived as such, imo.
Perception isn’t reality, but it does beg the question of why you would promote a false perception.
You replied to BM who was specifically replying to the previous comment that claimed that HH would prop up National.
Is it really a false perception that a vote for the Maori party is a vote for National?
BM didn’t mention Hone specifically.
“Is it really a false perception that a vote for the Maori party is a vote for National?”
It’s very clear that I am not talking about the Mp but Mana/HH.
Dot and BM are specifically talking about HH propping up National. You can of course clear this up once and for all, are you saying that HH will prop up a National govt?
But I have already given my opinion @ 8.1.1.1.1 etc, can’t see the sense in repeating it, we will only go round in circles like we always do on this subject. This deal between Mana and the Maori party is not a new surprise. It was pretty clear at Ratana that the lines had already been drawn, which has already been discussed at length, on a previous thread.
Yes – and the very fact that Mana and the Maori Party accompanied the National Party to Ratana this year – rather than go on with all the other political parties the next day – should be telling everyone just who Mana and Maori will be doing electorally – they are linking up with National. It’s as plain as daylight.
That’s exactly right, Jenny.
In the absence of you clarifying I will now assume that you believe that HH, if he wins, and thus Mana, will support the formation of a National govt post election.
Lol You can assume all you want Weka.
People usually dissemble for a reason. In your case, you look like you are spreading lies about HH as part of your support for Labour.
That’s not true, but you can think what you like Weka.
Weka, if the fact that Mana will not be standing candidates in all but one electorate has the desired effect of allowing the Māori Party to take more of these (thus weakening Labour) and (partly as a result of this) National are again the largest party in parliament and get to form the government (to which the Māori Party would again align itself, even if Mana didn’t) then Harawira would – through this deal – be helping to prop up National. That’s not a complex chain of thought to follow, surely?
That’s what I was thinking, kind of, but that’s not the line that is being run here. What’s being run here is that Mana/HH are now siding with National. That might be true, but it seems unlikely given who Mana are, so I’d like to see people state it clearly and then present some evidence. Or just state it as an opinion that HH has gone from being the most left wing MP in parliament to one who will now support the formation of a 4th term RW neoliberal govt.
btw, I’m not sure that chain works exactly. I’m still not clear on the overhangs, but Labour losing the Māori seats held by the Mp doesn’t make them less likely to govern, because their MPs are made up off the list vote. Them losing TTT to HH the same, but HH having TTT and supporting a left wing govt actually increases the chances of Labour governing because it gives the left bloc another MP. I think. I’ll see if I can run the numbers through the calculator.
No Weka, what I keep saying is that the Maori party supports National, Hone aligning himself with the Maori party will give that perception.
+1000 Red-Blooded.
Surely the MP and Mana parties are not amalgamating, they are merely accommodating each other. When the results are in they can go their own way.
Reply to weka, above (no reply function on that comment for some reason): I query your assumption that losing the Māori seats wouldn’t affect the number of Labour MPs. People tend mostly to give their electorate and party vote to the same party, so if the Māori Party carried more of the Māori seats again, it’s likely that their percentage of the national vote would increase, at Labour’s cost. Fewer party votes = fewer MPs. After all, I can’t see the Māori Party campaigning on the basis that people should vote-split and give their party vote to Labour, can you?
No, I can’t see that happening.
Well said Red-Blooded.
OMG I’m agreeing with BM.
Slight caveat, I think Tāmaki Makaurau should be be green, actually more specifically Marama Davidson. She would make a better local MP any day of the week over do the occasional Mihi dude, Peeni Henare.
Māori need to get the best deal for Maori, and quite frankly both national and labour are so wrapped up in their own world to actually do that.
Most Maori, think this government has been bad, but that it could have been worse if not for the Maori Party. So leftie I think you well out of touch.
Sheesh BM when did you turn all reasonable? 🙂
I think there is a fair amount of underming Labour in his comment to, but yep, he is right that it makes sense for Māori to work as a bloc to get a better deal in government. Whether that will actually work because of the Mp’s history remains to be seen. I’m finding your commentary on the various splits interesting too. There’s a Greens/TTT post up now too.
Regarding your question earlier, weka, about whether the deal meant that Hone would be supporting National, well, the answer is yes, but only if the Mp are prepared to form a government with National. I cannot see how the Mp will be doing this after making this arrangement with Hone. The Mp have not said in so many words that their time with National is over. But given this deal with Mana, I’d bet my house on the Mp having well and truly decided already that they’ll be giving their support to Labour. It’s simple, really, because there’s just no way that Hone would have made such a deal if there was any chance at all that the Mp would be doing it again with Bill and his mates. The announcement today has told us in no uncertain terms who the Mp will be supporting come September.
Ok, two things. One is that I don’t see anything in the agreement that suggests that Mana have to do what the Mp do (or vice versa). So Mana could support Labour and Mp could support National post-election.
Second, I think that the Mp will go with whichever side gives them the best deal. That could be National or it could be Labour. I hope that between now and the election that both Mana and the Mp will be clearer about this, but in reality the only people they need to be accountable to are Māori and their voters.
I would like to see the Mp work with a left wing govt, not least because they’re the only party that supports best practice for our waterways. They say drinkable, Greens and Labour say swimmable. That’s huge IMO.
Yes, there’s nothing in the agreement, but there doesn’t need to be because it’s between Mana and the Mp. More importantly, though, it’s not in the Mp’s interests to announce that now. If they did Maori wouldn’t get one single crumb from National’s table between now and the election. All bets would be off.
The biggest indicator in all of this is that Hone would not sign up to anything that bolstered support for National. He hates them with a passion. That’s why there must’ve been a decision made by the Mp that their time with the nats has finished. Today’s announcement just beggars belief if that decision hasn’t been made. Anything else just defies all logic (not that that means anything these days!).
It’s a good argument, and it makes more logical sense than much of the rest I’ve seen today.
I’m confused about this though,
“Regarding your question earlier, weka, about whether the deal meant that Hone would be supporting National, well, the answer is yes, but only if the Mp are prepared to form a government with National.”
Do you mean that technically Mana will have supported National in a de facto way because of the arrangement re the Māori seats? Rather than him actually wanting to support National? So a gamble of sorts, although what you say about what has really gone on seems much more likely.
“Do you mean that technically Mana will have supported National in a de facto way because of the arrangement re the Māori seats?”
Yes. If Mana helps the Mp by removing the possibility of Mana splitting the vote and handing the seat to Labour (and of course by doing so the Mp actually win the seat) and that the Mp’s arrangement with the nats continues, Hone’s deal with the Mp bolsters the chances of another nat government. (For example, in Waiariki Flavell got less votes at the last election than Waititi and Sykes combined, and that one seat to the Mp kept them in Parliament.)
“Rather than him actually wanting to support National?”
That’s kind of my main point. Hone despises National. So any deal, I believe, could not be because he wants to support National.
But that’s also precisely why I believe that the Mp must have already decided not to go with National.
Adam is that why the Maori party is now down to just 1 seat? The Maori party have been sitting at the table with National for almost 9 years, what best deal have average Maori gotten in that time? I suggest, that the one being well out of touch, is you.
One seat, two MP’s. But why bother with facts when your meme works so well for you.
You mean, apart from Whānau Ora, the extension of te reo broadcasting, a seat at cabinet, budget directed specifically for Māori, and a whole lot of good treaty settlements. Just off the top of my head.
Yeah, but then again, maybe you don’t want to see.
What meme? And that didn’t actually answer the question though. Hasn’t Whānau Ora faced problems and is being underfunded? Who are the ones really benefiting from the settlements? Are average Maori seeing any benefits from those settlements? Is blindness your problem Adam, you can’t see that increasing levels of poverty and homelessness are deeply affecting Maori?
“Are average Maori seeing any benefits from those settlements?” Siding with ‘Don the fast becoming obsolete Brash’ I see with the framing of that question. Even asking it as you did shows how far down the rabbit hole you are.
As for Māori in poverty and homelessness, what a pathetic argument from you. Māori have always been at the brunt of this neo-con nightmare. You are quick to blame the Māori Party and Nation, well on this one squarely labour did it too.
If you think anything is going to change whilst you don’t listen to Māori voices, you are just part of the dam problem as well.
+ 1 Good points well made adam
Lol making things up Adam, I have never sided with Brash and never would. You don’t need to get abusive and huffy because you can’t answer what are relevant questions. So poverty and homelessness shouldn’t be brought up? So we are supposed to ignore that, are we? Have the voice of average Maori been listened to whilst the Maori party have been sitting at National’s table for almost 9 years?
So what next from you leftie – telling Māori what is wrong (no wait, check) and then telling Māori how to fix it (no wait, check).
Haven’t we been down this paternalist smug self-righteous road before – check.
If you think that Māori are facing anything new with this national government, then you are deeply deluded. Poverty and homelessness have been a constant part of colonialism. Even in the so called ‘good years’.
Māori need to have Māori solutions. Because white folk don’t get it, and white folk really ain’t got the solutions.
You are making up stores. I’m not telling Maori to do anything Adam, and isn’t that a smug self-righteous road you have put yourself on? Is average Maori better off with the Maori party sitting at National’s table for the last 9 years? Really, these are basic, straight forward questions that you appear unable to answer.
Are you really that thick leftie? Sorry to be blunt, but neo-con nightmare and at the blunt face of it, did that pass you by? Or was it to fancy a response for ya?
I think the last 40 odd years since the rise of the 4th Labour government has been hell for the majority of Māori. Do we need to mention the 5th labour government and the biggest land grab since the New Zealand wars?
Yet you have a bee in your bonnet about the last 9 years, woopty doo. It’s been way longer than that for Māori at the coal face of poverty. I’m guessing to get real solutions by Māori, for Māori, it will be some more time yet.
“Is average Maori better off with the Maori party sitting at National’s table for the last 9 years? Really, these are basic, straight forward questions that you appear unable to answer.”
How about you answer them then. Would most Māori have been better off with the Māori Party sitting on the opposition benches and having no Ministerial control over govt departments.
You may be right, but I haven’t seen a convincing argument made yet.
I’m also curious what you think the Mp should have done given its members wanted them to have an arrangement with National.
http://www.maoriparty.org/agreement_the_maori_party_and_national
weka, the answer has to be no, but I think the Mp have realised that. The Mp didn’t go with the nats because nat policies aligned with theirs more than any other party. The Mp went with the nats because they believed greater gains could be made “inside the tent”. They were wrong, naive, they sold out – whatever we want to call it, but I think the Mp understand that now. There was also some important history that meant there was a score to settle with Labour, but that score’s been settled now by the Mp having told Labour they’re not to be fucked with.
The Mp’s general policy position is far more aligned with the left then with the nats. The Mp personnel has changed. Time’s moved on, lessons have been learned and scores have been settled. I think the Mp are moving back to where it belongs.
I hope so, and I’d like to see L/G work with both the Mp and Mana post-election.
But this whole thing about selling out. For conservative Māori, why would you not want to have someone whose party is based around Māori identity being the Minister in charge of a couple of govt departments that affect Māori?
But Adam, we are talking about the Maori party, are we not?
Weka, why should I? can’t Adam answer the questions, simple enough to answer, surely?
Does the Maori party represent all Maori?
Do Maori see the Maori party as a true independent voice after almost 9 years of propping up the National government?
Answered you questions leftie, now you are just being obtuse. Because nothing of what I have written, is abstruse.
No you didn’t answer the questions Adam, you avoided doing that.
“It’s hard to win an argument with a smart person, but it’s damn near impossible to win an argument with a stupid person.” Bill Murry.
If you can’t work out what being at the blunt face of the neo-con economic nightmare means, then I’m going to have to think of you in the later category.
To repeat, we are talking about the Maori party. Lol talk about avoidance, now you are posting abuse, and still not answering the questions! Give it up Adam, you obviously do not want to answer, fine, how long are we going to go round in circles?
Seriously dude, get a grip what has happened in the last 9 years is just an extension of what has been happening for the last 40 and longer. The Māori party, at least were trying to offer a Māori perspective, and you seem to have a problem with that. You have not offered up anything except a meme about propping up the national government.
You have dismissed Whānau Ora out of hand. You have shown a similar disdain for treaty settlements. You don’t want to talk about the biggest land grab outside the New Zealand wars. And most of all, you don’t want to talk about colonialism, which is why Māori are at the blunt face of this nightmare called neo-con economics or as others call it, austerity. Now to help you – blunt face, is homelessness, child abuse, alcoholism, unemployment, under employment, education, suicide and the list goes on.
This is the kicker about this economics, it’s going to keep producing these outcomes, and whilst labour and national are tethered to that economic model – Māori will suffer. So was it good that the Māori party supported a government who keep austerity at the forefront of economic policy, no. But and it’s a big but they had a mandate from their electorate and their members to be inside the tent and have Māori voices and opinions heard.
What worries me with your argument on this whole thread, is the disconnect you have from that reality, or a unwillingness to accept it. Also the way you will not look at the bigger picture. Again, prove me wrong. I’ve asked you to do that a few times now and you have not.
Sigh. We are talking about the Maori party covering it’s 9 years of supporting the National government. They were straight forward, simple questions that you continue to refuse to answer. It’s pretty clear why you won’t.
LOL.
I can’t help if you can’t read. Or lack basic comprehension skills.
Clearly that’s not true Adam, you are being lame and very infantile.
Can’t see Nanaia Mahuta losing her seat anytime soon BM. She one smart cookie, who has cross all the t’s, and dotted all the i’s.
Oh FFS! Whatever concessions the Maori Party might have won from National, they are dwarfed by the adverse effects on Maori as a whole of National’s right-wing social and economic policy. High unemployment, low wages, unaffordable housing, pro-employer labour laws, crippling student debt, rampant tax evasion at the top end but unavoidable PAYE for the workers, increases in the regressive GST, casualization or work, sadistic micro-management by WINZ etc. etc. All these things harm a lot of Maori terribly.
A few crumbs thrown to the Maori Party by their lords and masters in National are nothing.
You do realise that National don’t need the Mp to be the government. So if the Mp had no agreement with National and was part of the opposition, then National would still be in power.
Agree Dot. Particularly after Hone said he wouldn’t support those that support National. He has gone back on his own words.
Leftie ,Hone is NOT in the Maori Party. They are simply cooperating to try to get the Mana Party and the Maori Party into Parliament.
Understood and there’s the dilemma, the Maori party supports National.
I hope Hone Harawira gets back into parliament. He’s a good MP, and the left need rarking up.
“Labour’s Kelvin Davis: A vote for the Mana Māori deal is a vote for National”
That’s the crux of it. Hopefully the Maori roll will see it for the desperate, self serving politicking it is.
The green/labour deal was implemented to change the government. This one doesn’t. This does the opposite.
Should be an easy choice to vote labour to sweep the the Maori seats.
I watched the antics of Kelvin Davis, Winston Peters and National in Te Tai Tokerau last election and was not impressed to say the least. Bring back Hone – a voice from and for the Left.
But will aligning himself with the Maori party that supports National, do that Garibaldi?
It’s probably his and Mana’s only way back into parliament. Doesn’t meant that he or Mana will support a National govt. Someone should ask him though.
Hone has made a deal with the Maori party, so definitely that question should be asked. Possible Catch 22?
Possibly a bit of Schrödinger’s cat – until they’re in parliament, you don’t know whether they’re voting left or right.
Or maybe a bit of Heisenberg – the more accurately you know their political positioning, the less accurately you know how many votes they’re going to get?
+ 1 good ones!
They can say pre election who they would support to form govt.
See above. A deal is not a combining of parties.
Yep. You’d think that a year out from the L/G MoU people would understand this by now.
People understand, the Lab/Green MoU is about changing the government, but like you have pointed out, someone should ask Hone to clarify his position.
Look at who the Mana/Maori Parties aligned themselves with, at Ratana – that will tell you what they have in mind. The National Party.
Yes, exactly. As you pointed out in another comment, Hone and the Maori party walked with National, not the opposition parties.
“Labour, Greens the New Zealand First and Gareth Morgan’s Opportunities Party walked onto the pa together.”
“The National-led Government and the Maori Party attended the Ratana commemorations yesterday.”
<a href="http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11787705
Isn’t that because they are in Government, no opposition?
Sure, but Hone is not in government. If you want to change the government, why not walk with the opposition?
Maybe in Māori politics it’s not all about left and right.
🙂 always ends up that way though.
But Ratana is the end, right?
Edit, I meant to say Ratana isn’t the end, right?
Never said Ratana or anything else was the end.
Right. So Mana and the Mp go to Ratana together. People say this Means certain things. I say that a traditional L/R lens might not be the best way to understand this. You say it’s always L/R in the end. I say Ratana isn’t the end, ergo your point is meaningless.
I would also like to understand what happened at Ratana, amongst other things. But I’m not seeing any useful explanation in this thread about that.
Think what you like Weka. In regards to Ratana, it sure looked like the lines were drawn, what’s that saying about perception in politics is everything.
Who will align there wide and varied forces against Hone this election I wonder. Hmmm we’ll see if times change …
What’s the guess, parties and voters that don’t trust the Maori party and want to change the government?
Yes, time will tell all.
Who will YOU get into bed with politically to ensure Hone doesn’t get in?
Don’t start Marty. It is not my doing that Hone is repeating the same mistakes as in 2014.
100%. Maori party voted with National 93% of the time. Voted to sale state homes (which meant 205 sat empty waiting to sell, instead of housing people) along with backing budgets which saw money stripped from Health & Education. Talk from Mana figures outside of Ti Tai Tokerau has already seen wanting Labour, Green & Hone to take NZ forward. Tuku and his flash undies might have just cost the Maori party a place in the house
+1000 RJG.
@RJG
….and the MP voted to support National in f@#%ing up the RMA which means that development can be plastered over the NZ landscapes without public notification or the ability to appeal to the Environment Court.
Because of this fact alone I will cheer if the Maori Party is wiped out.
Kelvin Davis is talking bollocks. Hone will never go with National. If Hone wins his seat (TTT) that will be an overhang vote for the Left bloc. If Mana gets 1.4% that will be 2 seats for the Left bloc.
MP voted to remove disability rights and then denied it.
“Labour’s Kelvin Davis: A vote for the Mana Māori deal is a vote for National”
Who exactly gets to vote on the deal?
If he means that a vote for Harawira by Māori in Te Tai Tokerau is a vote for National, then I think he is deliberately lying and obviously self-serving.
“Should be an easy choice to vote labour to sweep the the Maori seats.”
I need to get my head around overhangs, but doesn’t Mana having a seat give the left a better chance of forming govt?
Well, that rather depends on whether Harawira is throwing his lot in with the Māori party and the Nats.
Im pretty sure that’s what it means – the fight will be tough up there and Kelvin knows this. This is a double-ended message imo too. Give him a high place please labour.
The question, Weka, really is : is Hone Harawira Left ? and what did he do for his people when he was in Parliament ? He did a lot of swanning around and made a lot of noise, but did he really do anything for Maori ?
Jenny ,that is the usual throwaway line the Natz used on Hone. He was out there working with his people instead of trough feeding in Wellington by sitting moribund on his bum in Wellington like so many others do.
+ 1
Yep Māori will decide. Attack memes show the fear and that is known imo.
Well, I’m scared. I’m scared that the Māori party might get 3 or 4 seats and give their support to National so they can get to 61 on confidence and supply, and then National get three more years of wrecking the country. On current National polling, that’s not an unrealistic proposition if Sykes, Nikora and Greensill and others aren’t standing for Mana in their electorates.
Perhaps it’s time the left stopped slagging off the Mp then and considered that they might work with whichever party is going to advance their needs and policies best.
Have the Mp ever had the chance to work with a Labour govt and chosen National instead?
Well stay and activist or become a social worker and don’t claim an mp salary ( which I suggest he sorely misses plus the free travel) An MPs job is to scrutinise , challenging, debate, developing and changing legislation plus representing the views of his constituents in parliament, not swanning around as a social worker, bother boy or as he sees fit As per some comments above HH was totally ineffective as an mp
So can you answer the question about what he did, then, garibaldi? I seem to remember some fuss about expensive trips away etc. He had a lot more time out of parliament than most (and BTW the job of an MP involves representing their people in parliament – that’s not “trough feeding” or “sitting on their bums” – it’s their job). If he was achieving so much for the people to Te Tai Tokerau, then why did they give him the heave ho?
I thought electorate MPs were supposed to spend more time in their electorate, thus less time in parliament.
Here’s an example of what I was vaguely recalling.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/3037942/PM-Harawiras-white-tirade-deeply-offensive
Note that the “white mother f-ers” tirade (really bad judgement) arose because he traveled overseas on parliamentary business but missed official engagements to take a side trip to Paris with his wife. If my memory is correct, he hadn’t given any notice that he wouldn’t be on the job, as expected. So, in this case at least, his reason for missing work time wasn’t anything to do with his status as an electorate MP.
Ok, so that’s one example. Got any others? I’d like to see this history of him not working properly as an MP.
Even this far out it looks like it’s going to be a knife edge election. Mana, in doing this deal with the MP, for them to both win at labour’s expense, means that if it succeeds then labour are down up to 7 seats which drastically affects the chances of a positive outcome for most of us.
That the MP are supporters of and partners with the national party enemy, isn’t a good look for mana.
It remains true in general and the Maori electorates, if you want to change the government you have to vote for the labour candidate and party vote green or labour.
Kelvin’s message is spot on.
“means that if it succeeds then labour are down up to 7 seats.”
I can’t see how. Labour get their seats off the list vote. Losing the Māori seats might hurt their mana but it won’t lessen the number of MPs they have (unless their list vote drops so low that they are relying on electorate votes).
I’ll do the numbers at some point but it still seems more likely that if HH took TTT then there would be more left votes in parliament not less.
And up to six MP votes to give to Bill.
But proportionality still decides who forms govt.
But this deal is still designed to give the nats support party six + MP seats. If the election is close, and it probably will be, given the MP stay true to form and deal for the promise of Bill’s beemer, it’s possible it could make the difference between changing the government or not.
Given the likely outcome of the MP continuing to prop up national, Mana may just have well done a deal with Act or Dunne.
But if left wingers on this site think it’s okay to gift seats to their hated political enemy, then like alt facts and fake news, it’s just a sign of the times where we have to hope common sense eventually wins through.
So let us not under estimate the importance of how this dodgy deal could sour the pot for the labour/green collective at the election.
If Bill gets the significance of a couple of seats in a tight race, why doesn’t mana?
“As he himself said, “one or two seats will matter quite a bit in our MMP elections” and stripping from Labour one or two of its six Maori electorates could be crucial.
Sunday’s One News-Colmar Brunton poll sent a reminder to National – if one was needed – how tight the race is despite National’s strong polling … and how crucial English’s “one or two seats” could be.”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/89606960/english-punts-talk-of-electoral-deals-maori-seat-strategy-into-the-stands
I’d rather that Labour dealt with Mp and Mana than NZF.
Noted!
Peter, I don’t think we can call this a “dodgy deal” while celebrating that Labour-Green MoU. That’s obvious hypocrisy. I question the belief that this deal benefits the left in any way, but it’s not “dodgy” – it’s a transparent agreement with a stated aim.
The only logical basis for the deal is if the Mp has decided to ditch the nats. Hone would not have been part of anything that helps National back into power, especially something like this which could benefit the nats so hugely. The Mp must’ve cut themselves loose.
Or, Harawira is willing to take the gamble. That he gets into parliament but the right forms govt with the help of the Mp or not. Given that that is possible anyway, maybe it’s worth it. If it’s about getting a better deal for Māori on specific Māori issues, then he’s probably better in than out, and likewise the Mp.
“If it’s about getting a better deal for Māori on specific Māori issues, then he’s probably better in than out, and likewise the Mp.”
Better in than out of Parliament or government? I don’t think Hone thinks that way about the government. The Mp may do, and they certainly used to. But I think even the Mp has changed its view on this, and today’s announcement only makes sense if they have.
I don’t think there’s any gamble going on, but there could be I suppose. Are you saying that the gamble would be Hone hoping that the numbers allow the Mp to be in government with Labour and Mana? And that if that gamble’s lost, the Mp goes with the nats?
That is an alternative to the Mp having cut the nats loose. It’s just that I don’t think Hone would be prepared to take that gamble. There’s also the other stuff, like the history between the Mp and Labour and that things may have thawed, together with the Mp probably understanding that the little gains they may say they’ve made don’t really cut it compared to the more pressing issues that’ve really come to a head over the last year or so and which the nats have showed no desire to address.
Ultimately, too, the Mp ain’t a bunch of neo-liberals. They adopted a strategy and that strategy failed. I think the Mp know that now. I think we’re in for a change on this front.
Beyond 2 seats, the Māori party would be creating an overhang in parliament. Mana the same – at least, based on last election’s polling.
+1000 Peter Swift
Yep those voters on the Māori roll will decide, and I can’t imagine many on here are on that roll thank the Gods. The time for the big white hand to cover the small brown hand is over – the white hand seemed bigger because you had it right in front of your face.
E kore e piri te uku te rino.
Good strategic move from both parties even though I disagree with it on a few levels. As stated above, it is about getting those seats back and securing them.
For National.
Doesn’t that really depend how Labour do? The Maori party want to be in government, so they will deal either way
Maybe, depends if the Maori party is left in a position to do any deals.
I’m not sure Hone will necessarily benefit all that much.
Only 879 (38%) Maori Party Voters chose Maori Party candidate Paenga in 2014.
The rest were evenly split between Harawira and Davis (MP voters incidentally played no role at all in Hone’s loss – while Davis certainly enjoyed a 10 point rise in Maori Party Voter support (relative to 2011) … they actually swung even a little more firmly behind Hone (up 11 points).
All depends on how willing Te Tai Tokerau Maori Party Voters are to take their cue from the Party-Iwi leadership – based on their past voting patterns I have a feeling they’ll go their own way. Touch and go as to whether Hone benefits in a decisive way.
Is it true that Hone’s deal with the Maori party ends the day after the election, as reported by the media. What is that all about? Anyone?
Standard deal that Hone made with IP as well. It means after the election can vote any way he, and any other Mana MP’s so chose.
I suppose their different party votes will ultimately determine the numbers once over the line. I wonder how many to get 2 mana mps in.
The Mp have 2 MPs on one electorate and 1.32% of the vote. However 1.32% of 121 is only 1.59 MPs, so maybe they round it up? 1.67% is the actual number that gets 2 out of 120.
I wonder if Mana are being pragmatic here and focussing on the best plan on getting Harawira back in, and then building up again from that over the next term. That’s based on how the bigger parties believe that they need to stand in electorates to increase their party vote, so by that theory not standing in the other Māori seats might drop the Mana party vote. But, Māori vote in different patterns than Pākehā as far as I can tell, so maybe that is less of an issue.
The agreement between the two parties is here https://thestandard.org.nz/he-kawenata-ki-waenga-i-te-roopu-mana-me-te-paati-maori/#comment-1301790
I think the two people worst off in all of this are Annette Sykes and Te Hāmua Nikora – they both got more than 5,000 electorate votes last time, among the most by minor party candidates (Flavell and Harawira leading that, after The Hair and Rimmer), and now they don’t get to stand for Mana.
I agree and I’d prefer them in the house. Some very long game is in play I spose.
I think people are conflating what is good for iwi, with what is good for Maori.
regardless,, what’s good for maori is good for aotearoa.
[The Agreement and press releases are here for those that want to understand what the two parties are doing
https://thestandard.org.nz/he-kawenata-ki-waenga-i-te-roopu-mana-me-te-paati-maori/
– weka]