Interesting piece in The Herald this morning:
Property: Marked drop in mortgagee sales
Figures released exclusively to the Herald by data analysis company CoreLogic show 95 properties defaulted in the first quarter of 2015 and 723 in the year to March 31.
In comparison, 198 foreclosures occurred in the previous three-month period and 1133 properties defaulted in the year to March 2014.
Experts say the fall in mortgagee sales reflects strengthening economic conditions, solid employment figures and near record-low home loan interest rates, making it easier for homeowners to afford repayments.
I’m not an “expert” on anything much, but I call bullshit on those explanations. Strengthening economic conditions? Outside the Christchurch rebuild not so much, and growth is low in historical terms. Solid employment figures? No not really, and many of the new jobs are part time / zero hours – not going to pay a mortgage. Low interest rates? Yes, but they have been low for ages.
No the “experts” are missing an obvious and much more significant factor. House prices in Auckland are going up almost $1K per day. How can that not factor in an “analysis”?
My guess is that mortgagee sales are falling because ordinary people are no longer buying houses in Auckland. The balance is shifting towards the only people buying being cashed-up multi-property owning speculators and overseas buyers. The sort of people with the resources not to default on a mortgage. Ordinary Kiwis are being excluded.
But hey what do I know, I’m not an “expert”.