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National can win the next election

Written By: - Date published: 12:00 pm, February 5th, 2018 - 75 comments
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The first part is to wait.

The current government are on a wafer-thin majority within a fragile coalition.

Labour will go down from where they are, as all first term governments do.

Once the electorate has finished inhaling new-baby estrogen, wept swimming pools of salty tears to their politically abject historical inquiries, and stacked the firewood of their middle class tax transfers, stuff gets hard.

Just simply wait.

And let Time place his mighty finger on the scales.

The second part is to increase popularity.

Initial part of that is to change leaders.

Bill English is a dead weight. He knows that and they know that. If John Key had wanted to, he could have stayed on and got them to close to 50%.

Call it 48% and easily ruled alone. They got a respectable result, but they would have won with John and without Bill.

2-3% for them begging to be taken by just ditching Bill. That would easily get you back to 45%

The next part is to be prepared.

Plenty of money in the bank, plenty of proxy mouthpieces in the real estate and development community, plenty of talent in the lineup, and others willing and hungry to take their place. Labour have almost no businesses donating, and have not worked Auckland’s bourgeoisie to shore them up.

National sure don’t need media stunts.

But the time is coming to drive a proper wedge between the entire agricultural community and economy – together with major business, against this government. Let the Greens keep that 5% joyless vegetarian vote, and feed the rest actual red meat. Eat all the pies.

The government’s Minister of Finance wants to make the economy be “about” people and stuff. When the first farm foreclosures arrive, when the mortgagee sales of apartments start after Twyford deflates the market too fast, when the same stories appear in 2018 in

winter about the same 2017 families sleeping in the same cars, remind the public that, whatever the economy is “for”, the Labour-led government is in charge. The economy is simple: show me the money.

Eat the pies.

On the list is get Shane a job. Won’t be hard, obviously. Newly married, roguishly charming as ever, biddable and priceable, he’s the easy way to eradicate the succession plan for New Zealand First. Kill NZF. It will be as hard as rolling that besuited geriatric off a cliff. 1-2% redistributed is yours.

The really easy bit is to hold the current government to account. Great, treasure what you measure, and top work Jacinda.

Few of this governments’ own measures are within their control. It is exceedingly noble to hold yourself accountable to the powerless, and to let that be writ large in the media for all to see without controlling the outcomes.

Nobility, as Frank Underwood would say, doesn’t give you shit. A few gentle reminders to the news teams that accountability is only used in performance reviews, and the debates go south fast. .5% is yours.

In the last year, election year, tell them this: we will make you rich. Not happy, not not-poor. Rich. Have fun with it.Grow the pie? Eat the pie.

That’s the extra 2% that gets you to 48%. Just a gentle reminder, National was polling ready to govern alone in September 2017.

None of those are hard moves.

75 comments on “National can win the next election ”

  1. Cinny 1

    The way I see it re leadership it’s bill because of NORA (no other real alternative) and bill has been wanting to retire for years but key pipped him at the post.

    With MMP can one party govern alone if they have the numbers please? I really don’t think national will be able to manage to do so by 2020.

    • ropata 1.1

      FJK fucked over NZ then left the Nats in the lurch and skipped town. Bill must be steaming. But what can you expect from a vulture capitalist bankster like Key. The Nats had it coming.

  2. Antony Cotton 2

    National Party and it Supporters cannot count they think 44.4 per cent Majority its Not National and there Supporters Hate MMP.

  3. patricia bremner 3

    You are hopeful!!

    This government will show how to work together to achieve goals by being inclusive, in all areas of life and across all cultures.

    Stunts like Bill English’s lies regarding consultation on child poverty, were shown up when Jacinda Ardern published the letter sent on the 13th Dec asking for a meeting!!

    Like a great chess player she is ahead of the game anticipating and preparing. Today she asked to be judged each Waitangi week, and generally held to account.

    As people see the mahi put in to improve lives on many levels, groups like the Maori Kingitanga will change their past allegiance and move to support, (as has happened).

    National always try to divide and conquer to keep control, while spouting “freedom and independence”. (Think diminishing returns for contractors).

    National fail to form relationships with all levels, preferring the elite, so their vote is at its maximum now.

    Women and men will gradually change over as they see improved lives for themselves and their daughters and sons.

    Those whose livelihoods are threatened by technology will find more support, as legislation put in place by this government will see fairer outcomes, and that includes farmers.

    Sharing the growing pie is not National policy, as your “eat the pies” shows.
    Sharing caring and strengthening community through democracy is the progressive way.

    For those reasons I don’t see National back soon.

  4. One Anonymous Bloke 4

    National will also try to drive a wedge between the government parties, although they do get help from the occasional useful idiot on the Left.

    • BG 4.1

      Hence the real reason for the undemocratic Electoral (Integrity) Amendment Bill (an oxymoron if I ever saw it, there is no integrity in this bill)

      Winston is NZF and his MPs do his bidding, and will do for always. He doesn’t another 1998

      • One Anonymous Bloke 4.1.1

        It’s an interesting conceit, the notion that you not only know what goes on inside Winston’s head, but can also read the minds of all NZF MPs.

        I think Lprent’s recent analysis of the party’s internal dynamics is probably closer to the truth.

      • One Anonymous Bloke 4.1.2

        …and if they all do what Winston tells them, why does he need a Waka-jumping bill?

  5. One Anonymous Bloke 5

    Labour will go down from where they are, as all first term governments do.

    Apart from the fifth Labour government, that is, where Labour increased their vote between 1999 and 2002.

    • Ad 5.1

      The way Prime Minister Ardern is going so far she could probably add to that.

    • McFlock 5.2

      and the nats 2008-11, too.

      The lesser party vote went down, but the conservatives also killed 2.5% of votes that weren’t exactly going to ally with Labour…

  6. Stuart Munro 6

    A lot of long ignored issues are visibly maturing these days – failure to grow the real economy, failure to grow productivity, failure to protect local jobs and wages, failure to regulate the housing sector and rents. This government will likely stand or fall on whether it is responding effectually to these issues. If so it has a stick to beat the Gnats with, if not it is not long for this world.

  7. red-blooded 7

    Nzers don’t often chuck a government out after one term. Yes, the majority is wafer thin. But that’s often true of MMP governments. If labour can win over a small number of “safe pair of hands” Nat voters, that’ll make a difference. That’s why all the “Drive Labour left!” cries from people on this site are counter-productive. Labour already has a core of left motivations and principals, but it needs enough voters to be able to actually be in government and the committed left voters already vote Labour or Green.

  8. Brian Tregaskin 8

    This article sums it up ADVANTAGE

    Want to see a return to this mess? Ive said it before and will say it again their policies hurt even their own voters (Some anyway)

    • BM 8.1

      Has Cindy fixed homelessness?no one living in cars anymore?

      Truth is things have got a hell of a lot worse for homeless people, there will be no more shopped articles to stuff or NZ Herald about all the homeless, homeless won’t be mentioned by any of the left wing journalists or if they do it will be buried somewhere deep within their websites, don’t want anything negative to detract from the Princess.

      Yep. the Homeless people have served their purpose, there’s no more need to hear about them anymore, it will be like they never existed.

      • Ad 8.1.1

        Winter is coming.

        • BM

          Seemed to be a year-round daily occurrence when National was in government, haven’t seen one article about the homelessness since the election.

          Why do you reckon that is?

            • BM

              Never saw them obviously buried deep somewhere.

              1 article about the homeless
              1 article about the government giving homeless people money
              1 about the dangers of the homeless to good law abiding folk.

              Not even one a month, it’s as if the media has lost interest.

              • McFlock

                Three links from a leading MSM site found on first search attempt.

                There are many others. Hardly “buried”, either.

                For some reason you just seem to overlook them. Can’t think why.

                • Anon

                  Big difference between searching for it, and having it across the front of all media. Stuff doesn’t give a timeline of articles, they can be on the front page for days or never even posted there.

                  • McFlock

                    Oh, sure, if you only read the front page above the fold you’ll miss a lot of news.

                    BM never mentioned front page only. I’d be surprised if there were any year that had front page stories on NZ poverty as “a year-round daily occurrence “. Frankly, I took it as an exagerration for it to be any level of poverty-related content on a daily occurrence.

          • Ad

            Key got a honeymoon from the media as well.
            Don’t worry, Campbell Live won’t be able to help themselves.

            • BM

              Would you be disappointed in Campbell if he stopped doing homeless and poverty stories?

            • McFlock

              The stories will change into being about the problem actually being addressed.

            • Jimmy Ramaka

              NZ Media fell head over heals in love with JK, Paddy Gower, Corrin Damm, Mike Hoskings, Barry Soper, just to name a few.

          • Psycho Milt

            Why do you reckon that is?

            Because a government that’s been in power a couple of months doesn’t get held to the same standard as a government that’s spent nine years worsening the problem? Or maybe biased journalists – beats me, it’s a mystery…

            • Anon

              Either answer is biased journalism, there’s no “grace period” for the homeless in ignoring the problem for awhile.

              • Bullshit.

                Under a government that’s encouraged a property bubble that’s drastically worsened homelessness, and which consistently pretends there’s no housing crisis resulting in increased homelessness, you bet there’s going to be a lot of media stories calling bullshit on the government. That’s their job.

                Under a government that’s recognised the housing crisis and promised to do something about homelessness, the media stories are going to be more about holding that promise to account. That’s their job. But there’s not much point in running such stories in the first months the government’s in office, because uh, duh-uh, you can’t fix problems on that scale in a few months.

                So, there won’t be any media stories calling bullshit on this government until it becomes clear whether they’re having an effect on the problem or not – that’s not “biased journalism,” it’s “journalism.”

  9. greywarshark 9

    I don’t think this is helpful to people who want a continuing left-leaning government Advantage. If it is supposed to frighten Labour into behaving like a reformist government and make a better job than we have seen for the last three terms, then you are too quick to heave half a brick. Maybe halfway through the term, in early 2019 would have been the time.

    If you want to aid National. why not have written it as an Opinion piece in the Herald? To put it on The Standard is provocative and it shows you outsmarting yourself in thinking out all the possibilties in favour of National, and how dismissive of Labour and lefties you actually are. One can know such things and discuss them but publishing them here shows you are so smart you’ll cut yourself as the saying goes, and if not yourself, others who you mix with as having some sort of esprit de corps with lefties, but apparently in your case it’s spelt corpse.

    • Bearded Git 9.1

      +1000 Grey

    • ropata 9.2

      Agreed maybe we should look at what the Left can do rather than worrying about what shitty stunts the Nats are going to try for the next election.

      New governments don’t get elected, old governments get kicked out. And National is still the old crusty government that has no mates.

      Here’s the NZ mood in a nutshell (click image)

      New Zealand. Old Zealand. pic.twitter.com/eUtN2Jnbkm— Enzo Giordani (@EnzoGiordani) February 6, 2018

  10. UncookedSelachimorpha 10

    Don Brash for leader!!

    Please God please

  11. Michael 11

    Reads like a memo from Macchiavelli; I’m sure the Nats have got him on some think tank’s payroll. The old adage that oppositions never win elections, governments lose them may have been upended by Jacindamania but it appears Niccolo did not get that message. Labour has to earn the right to govern; so far, it’s proved adept at knitting together a diverse range of political actors with one single common element: a deep loathing of the Nats’ front bench. Whether that visceral emotion is sufficient to keep the coalition together until the next scheduled election is anyone’s guess but Labour sure has a lot riding on it. As for lifting children out of poverty, providing social housing, access to medical and disability care, …?

  12. Pete 12

    There is a staunch group of very hurt, very nasty National supporters who will spend until election time doing every little thing they can to undermine the Government, every single day.

    The weird thing is you look at comments online and the mentality behind them and you have to remember that even though the election will be within three years, they will be at least 18 years old then.

    The level of the ‘debate’, the tirades, the spew of invective is what you’d expect from some maladjusted sore loser four year old.

  13. Ed 13

    Shouldn’t this be on Kiwiblog

    • fender 13.1

      Shouldn’t you read the policy

      Especially this bit: “……. including telling us how to run our site or what we should write.”

      • mauī 13.1.1

        Isn’t Ed allowed to voice his displeasure?

        I found this line particularly offensive:
        “Let the Greens keep that 5% joyless vegetarian vote”

        • Bearded Git

          Agreed…It is indicative of the level of debate Maui. The Greens will be back at 8 -9 per cent on their suite of well thought through policies and issues and with Jacinda will rule with 52 per cent in 2020’s 2-party coalition.

  14. greywarshark 14

    Yanis Varoufakis
    Capitalism will eat Democracy – (if we don’t stop taking them for granted.)

    Tedtalk 2016
    Have you wondered why politicians aren’t what they used to be, why governments seem unable to solve real problems? Economist Yanis Varoufakis, the former Minister of Finance for Greece, says that it’s because you can be in politics today but not be in power — because real power now belongs to those who control the economy. He believes that the mega-rich and corporations are cannibalizing the political sphere, causing financial crisis. In this talk, hear his dream for a world in which capital and labor no longer struggle against each other, “one that is simultaneously libertarian, Marxist and Keynesian.”

  15. Tanz 15

    Next election will bea FPP style in all but name. NZ First are gone, the Greens may go under and Act arn’t worth counting. Yep, one term govt, and at last the party with the most votes in govt, and our democracy honoured, instead of Labour being gifted govt, even after coming second in an election, via Winston Peters. Voters arn’t stupid and know that both English was robbed as well as our robust democracy. Cobbling together second, third and fourth does not a true winner make, no matter how the left spin it, including the MMP apologists.

    • The Fairy Godmother 15.1

      I think that the Green voters the Labour voters and most of New Zealand First are very happy with the result. You are insulting over half the voters here and if your party continues to do this they will lose the next election and probably two after that. Voters don’t like being insulted and I am sure the supporters of the two governing parties and the support party all feel they have good reasons for voting the way they did. I know I did. i wanted a government that actually cared about its people. That just won’t happen with National.

    • alwyn 15.2

      You really should have stopped at the end of the first sentence.
      National will win because they will get a few more votes than Labour. However Winston First will drop below the 5% line and Labour will continue to cannibalise the Green vote and they will also drop out of Parliament with less than 5%.
      That is it. The current Government is completely valid, even if it will collapse at the end of this term and Labour will be out of power in 2020.

      • Sparky 15.2.1

        If they keep on as they have ignoring voters wish and failing to keep their promises then I suspect you are quite right in terms of the outcome. In spite of the hoopla from red stamp tribalists and the MSM a lot of lefties I know are simply furious with this govt. The CP-TPP is key but their tax policy is pissing people off too. Its yet more take take take from the middle and working class and give sweet FA back.

    • Voters arn’t stupid and know that both English was robbed as well as our robust democracy.

      You continue to specialise in oxymoron, I see.

      …at last the party with the most votes in govt, and our democracy honoured…

      It’s fairly typical of a Nat voter that they imagine democracy is “honoured” by a party with a minority of the votes being able to govern via the votes of people who vote for minor parties being forcibly expropriated and redistributed to major parties, courtesy of a 5% threshold imposed by those same major parties. People with something other than contempt for democracy would regard that as democracy being pissed on, not honoured, but I guess National have spent so much time pissing on the lower orders they’ve lost track of what it means.

    • Cinny 15.4

      Correct voters are not stupid, that’s why 85% of them voted in a referendum to change the FPP electoral system way way back last century in the year 1992, 70% of them wanted to change it to MMP. This lead to another referendum at the 1993 election when MMP was voted in by the majority (myself included) as the preferred political system for NZ. It’s called progress

      The true winners are those who are in government. national did not have the seats or the friends to create a government, hence they lost.

      Hey Tanz why don’t you organise a referendum to bring back FPP and see what happens? Walk the talk and all that.

      Did you say english was robbed? What of? Did some one steal/hide the todd barclay recordings?

    • Bearded Git 15.5

      ha ha ha ha ……that cheered me up on a snowy morning in Asturia.

    • Exkiwiforces 15.6

      I’ll send a box tissues to you at the next elections when we win again, because you still can’t understand why you lost and we won. First step you Tories need to understand MMP, next step you need mates, 3rd stepunderstand the punters and then you might win the next election. But since you don’t have step 1 and 2, you will have more chance at winning lotto or picking a winner at this years NZ Cup than no mates National winning the next election.

      A famous Ozzie pollie once said “ Opinion polls are like assholes as everyone has one” as he neck has yard glass and also he said you’re a playing a mug’s game if you a opinion poll after just after election because if you can win now, you could be down at the race track this weekend backing last weekends winner or use this last weeks lotto number and see how you go.

      Suck it up princess still 3 yrs to go as he sings 1 nil, 1nil, 1nil, stand up if you hate national, stand up if you hate national, stand up if you hate national, stand up if you hate national, clap your hands for Jandals, clap your hands for Jandals. clap your hands for Jandals and Winne is the 2nd coming.

    • Brian Tregaskin 15.7

      Tanz how old are you? Im guessing you are a baby boomer which would explain your thinking progress. National party is born to rule
      Well the world has moved on and baby boomers have had their time.

    • Jimmy Ramaka 15.8

      Winston will be at 10-15% some very competent people in the NZF Party.

  16. Hanswurst 16

    Large opposition parties can win elections, replacing a jaded leader with someone more appealing can improve fortunes, smaller parties can vanish if their vote drops, and our current government isn’t sitting on 60% of the vote. In other breaking news: Bears implicated in “faeces in the woods” incident.

  17. Brian Tregaskin 17

    A king that is kind to his people will rule forever.

  18. Jimmy Ramaka 18

    Labour/NZF & Greens will be in Government for a long time if they play their cards
    right ?

    National will get hammered at the next Election 2020, bunch of arrogant hazz beans and try hards ?

  19. Sparky 19

    This new govt promised change but not only delivered more of the same but even worse. CP-TPP, 90 day law, capital gains tax, a possible return to antiquated death duty and good ol gift duty, flip flopping on their promise to plant trees, allowing the same resource exploitation that has led to global warming. NOT A GOOD LOOK!!!

    The so called socially responsible CGT which apparently only hurts evil landlords in truth effects a vast number of secondary home owners who are mum and dad investors trying to save money for their retirement and the kids. This will hurt peoples retirement and kids ability to inherit and grow personal wealth that sustains an economy through consumer spending and investment.

    All in all this coalition is in my view a shit sandwich of broken promises. I do not think I could vote National but like a lot of friends on the left we have spoken to we can simply switch off and stay home next election. No point in voting if you don’t get what you voted for.

  20. Ross 20

    2-3% for them begging to be taken by just ditching Bill.

    They opt for Judith Collins or Simon Bridges and their support crashes! No, ditching Bill won’t see their support rise. It could have the opposite effect.

    You can’t seem to get past FPP thinking. National needs support partners. Desperately.

  21. Me 21

    I dunno. People were getting pretty sick of them

    Which was repeated at a football game soon after.

    john key retired shortly afterwards

  22. ropata 22

    What I think National should do is
    – Bill to release the 450 deleted texts
    – Collins to come clean about Oravida’s activities in Northland
    – Bennett to resign for multiple breaches of citizens’ privacy
    – Joyce to apologise for misleading NZ about $11 billion
    – Coleman to resign for inexcusable mismanagement of health sector and cutting mental health services
    – All members of the “Blue Dragons” to declare their affiliations to the Chinese Government and anyone found to have lied about their intentions in NZ to be immediately deported
    – Declare all sources of funding and donate their war chest to a public fund for all parties
    – Apologise to the country for Dirty Politics
    – Renounce their legacy of neoliberalism and cronyism
    – Implement democratic reform of internal party rules
    – Cut all ties with banks, real estate, insurance industries and announce policy to put people before profit, and to jail anyone found to undermine the integrity of NZ democracy with promises of foreign capital.
    – Apologise to the education sector for screwing with their pay and ignoring policy advice. Renouce shonky private school ideology and admit that foreign student visas have been a massive scam.
    – Rename themselves the “blue-greens” and develop environmentally responsible policies that acknowledge economic “growth” is secondary to the proper care of NZ ecology, without which we will die.

  23. ropata 23

    PS: Ad, what is up with this negative thinking. A lot can happen in 3 years. I predict that National’s legacy of corruption and incompetence will be a regular feature of the news for a long long time and they will descend into infighting and chaos. The NZ public will be disgusted and Nat support will collapse. John Key will go on TV and express no confidence in his former party. The media will be merciless and expose a shocking level of foreign influence and illegal activity by National ministers. Heads will roll. Foreign relations may be cooled somewhat and the farming sector will lose their minds. But the rest of NZ will realise we don’t need their bullshit any more.

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